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The Effect of Post-IPO Private Equity Ownership

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The Effect of Post-IPO Private Equity Ownership Norwegian School of Economics Bergen, Fall 2018 The Effect of Post-IPO Private Equity Ownership An empirical study of how post-IPO private equity ownership affects the stock market- and accounting performance of private equity-backed IPOs in the US Haakon Dalseth and Jonatan Larsen Supervisor: Aksel Mjøs Master thesis in Financial Economics NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS This thesis was written as a part of the Master of Science in Economics and Business Administration at NHH. Please note that neither the institution nor the examiners are responsible − through the approval of this thesis − for the theories and methods used, or results and conclusions drawn in this work. Abstract Private equity firms stay invested in their portfolio companies for up to several years after an initial public offering. Despite private equity firms having incentives and opportunities to continue influencing the companies, the effects of the retained ownership are uncertain. This study contributes to the understanding of how the long-run stock market- and accounting performance of portfolio companies is affected by private equity ownership post initial public offering. Panel data of publicly listed private equity-backed companies in the United States provides the basis for the analysis. Fixed effects, instrumental variable estimation, and simultaneous equations models are among the econometric methods used in this study, with a focus on dealing with the endogeneity of private equity ownership. We find that private equity ownership post initial public offering has a significant positive effect on the stock market return for the portfolio companies. We find no effect on return on assets or Tobin’s Q. These findings contribute to broadening existing literature by investigating an, to our knowledge, previously unexplored relationship. Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 2. PRIVATE EQUITY VALUE CREATION AND DIVESTMENT .............................. 4 2.1 INTRODUCTION TO PRIVATE EQUITY ............................................................................. 4 2.2 VALUE CREATION ......................................................................................................... 6 2.3 IPO: NOT AN IMMEDIATE EXIT ...................................................................................... 7 3. RELATED RESEARCH ................................................................................................. 9 3.1 PRIVATE EQUITY-BACKED IPOS AND LONG-RUN PERFORMANCE .................................. 9 3.2 OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE ............................................................. 10 4. PREDICTIONS FOR POST-IPO PE OWNERSHIP AND PERFORMANCE....... 12 4.1 RELEVANT THEORIES AND MECHANISMS..................................................................... 12 4.1.1 Shareholder activism ......................................................................................... 12 4.1.2 Signaling theory ................................................................................................ 14 4.1.3 Price pressure ................................................................................................... 14 4.1.4 Private benefits of control ................................................................................. 15 4.1.5 Reputational concerns ....................................................................................... 16 4.2 HYPOTHESES ............................................................................................................... 16 4.2.1 Hypothesis 1: Stock market performance .......................................................... 17 4.2.2 Hypothesis 2: Accounting performance ............................................................ 17 4.2.3 Hypothesis 3: General company performance .................................................. 18 4.3 CONTRIBUTION TO EXISTING RESEARCH ..................................................................... 19 5. DATA .............................................................................................................................. 20 5.1 SAMPLE ....................................................................................................................... 20 5.2 COLLECTION AND PROCESSING ................................................................................... 22 5.3 VARIABLE DEFINITIONS .............................................................................................. 23 5.4 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ............................................................................................ 25 6. METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................ 28 6.1 ENDOGENEITY AND CAUSATION OF OWNERSHIP AND PERFORMANCE .......................... 28 6.1.1 In the case of PE ownership .............................................................................. 29 6.2 DEALING WITH THE ENDOGENEITY OF PE OWNERSHIP ................................................ 29 6.2.1 Panel data and fixed effects .............................................................................. 31 6.2.2 Lagged variables ............................................................................................... 32 6.2.3 Simultaneous equations models ........................................................................ 32 6.3 MODEL SPECIFICATION ............................................................................................... 33 6.3.1 Single equations models .................................................................................... 33 6.3.1.1 Stock market return ...................................................................................................... 34 6.3.1.2 Return on assets ........................................................................................................... 34 6.3.1.3 Tobin’s Q ..................................................................................................................... 35 6.3.1.4 Lagged variables as proxies and instruments ............................................................... 35 6.3.2 Simultaneous equations models ........................................................................ 35 6.4 RATIONALE FOR VARIABLE INCLUSION AND EXPECTATIONS ....................................... 36 6.4.1 Performance equations ..................................................................................... 37 6.4.2 Ownership equations ......................................................................................... 40 7. ANALYSIS ..................................................................................................................... 41 7.1 MODEL PREFERENCES ................................................................................................. 41 7.2 RESULTS ..................................................................................................................... 43 7.2.1 Stock market return ........................................................................................... 43 7.2.2 Return on assets ................................................................................................ 45 7.2.3 Tobin’s Q........................................................................................................... 46 7.3 DISCUSSION OF RESULTS ............................................................................................. 47 7.3.1 Relationships and causation .............................................................................. 47 7.3.2 Explanations of results ...................................................................................... 48 7.4 ROBUSTNESS ASSESSMENT .......................................................................................... 50 7.4.1 ROA as a measure of accounting performance ................................................. 50 7.4.2 Winsorizing ....................................................................................................... 51 7.4.3 Robustness of instruments ................................................................................. 52 7.4.3.1 Instrumental variable estimation .................................................................................. 52 7.4.3.2 Simultaneous equations models ................................................................................... 53 7.5 LIMITATIONS OF ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 54 7.5.1 Econometric limitations .................................................................................... 54 7.5.2 Data and sample limitations ............................................................................. 55 7.5.3 Limitations due to PE firms’ disposal of shares ................................................ 56 8. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 58 8.1 IMPLICATION OF RESULTS AND FURTHER RESEARCH ................................................... 59 9. REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 61 10. APPENDIX .................................................................................................................... 67 A.1 ECONOMETRIC ASSUMPTIONS .......................................................................................
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