Remarks Prepared for Delivery by Admiral James Stavridis The University of the South Commencement Address May 22, 2021

TO RISK IT ALL: THE HARDEST CHOICES WE MAKE

Vice Chancellor Brigety, my dear friend and fellow Annapolis graduate, Reuben, it is the honor of a lifetime to be here with you on “the Mountain.” My thanks! …

To be honest, when I heard I was on the “short list” to come and speak at graduation, I assumed it was a list of short people. Thanks for picking me, Reuben, and I assume at least part of my selection was that … of everyone on this stage … I am the one who most truly “looks up” to the Vice Chancellor!

For my remarks today, and given that much of the ceremony of this high Episcopal University is in Latin, the Vice Chancellor asked me to tell sea stories in Latin for about an hour and a half today. Everyone comfortable? Not too hot in the sun out there?

***

Actually, I’ll start with the most important thing I will do on this sunny Saturday morning: ask you to stand and thank your families and friends, especially your parents. Please join me in a round of applause for those who love you so much.

And while you are standing, please also join me in applauding your teachers. The faculty are the beating heart of any institution of education, and we should honor their service.

Finally, my thanks to the board of regents as well. As a lifelong Episcopalian, baptized in the church and a member of an Episcopal parish in Florida, all of us in the Episcopal faith are thankful for this institution and its deep study of theology.

***

As I accepted the role as the speaker today, of course, I tried to learn more about this extraordinary institution, with such a rich and complex history. So of course I started my research on Pinterest. They have the best memes.

Of the 13 memes I could find about Sewanee, six basically dealt with what dorm you lived in … four were about hiking some sort of trail … and one had a picture of Jennifer Lawrence from Hunger Games with bow in her hand and a serious “mean girl” look on her face with the words “Room Draw: May the Odds Be Ever in Your Favor.” I am not making this up.

Then I looked at Facebook. Someone had posted an article entitled, “7 Things I Wish I Knew Before Freshman Year at Sewanee.” In the section called “Party Life,” it said, “Let’s be real: we’re a bunch of college students, on top of a Mountain, with basically nothing to do, and drinking happens. Most drinking happens on Thursday through Saturday nights, but parties sometimes happen on Tuesdays as well.” I’m thinking, sometimes on Wednesday? I guess “dry Monday” is a thing here.

Here’s the quote I liked the most from the article: “There’s not really any pressure to drink, though—in fact, many students party completely sober and have just as much … if not more fun … than those who drink.” I am not making that up either. Vice Chancellor, I suspect certain school administrators are posing as students online. You should clearly investigate.

Actually I’ve heard about Sewanee for decades, both as an Episcopalian and particularly because of a cluster of Alums I’ve known well—my friend and fellow author Jon Meacham; former Chief of Naval Operations Frank Kelso; famed Intelligence Chief and Admiral Bill Studeman; and former Chief of Protocol in the Pentagon, Mary Claire Murphy, proud alumna and Sewanee double mom.

And as a writer, I’ve been keenly aware for years of the university's School of Letters which offers graduate degrees in American Literature and Creative Writing.

But nothing could have prepared me for the sheer beauty of this campus … it is truly stunning.

So to all the students and especially the historic class of 2021, let me congratulate you on the most important choice of your lives thus far: the decision to attend the University of South. As the saying goes, “Yea, Sewanee’s Right!”

***

And speaking of choices, like the choice to attend this school, let me open with a simple fact: as you sail on into the world this spring, big decisions will come at you often, and so I’d like to talk a bit about how we make choices in our lives.

Indeed, I’ve always been fascinated by the idea of how we make the decisions that shape our lives.

If you stop and think about it, of course, we are literally deciding things almost every minute. They can range, as the saying goes, from the sublime to the ridiculous. From answering the question “will you marry me” to choosing “paper or plastic.” In a sense, we are the sum of the decisions we make, both tactically and strategically.

Most of the choices are largely unconscious reactions to whatever life has thrown at us.

But occasionally, there are really big decisions in front of us—where we will go to university, whom we choose to marry, whether to take one job over another, when to change careers, when to start a family … decisions that go before ”paper or plastic” or “do you want fries with that Big Mac?”

Here’s the good news: Those big, strategic decisions are generally made with plenty of time to gather information, ponder the impact of the decision personally, solicit advice from family and mentors, test the choices logically—all the standard techniques that are part of the way we choose the most important things in our lives.

But there will be other moments of decision you face that will be just as important, but come under a very different time line and with a much higher level of risk.

There are times when we must decide really important things now, often before all the facts are at our fingertips, acting on a combination of sketchy information, unclear historical analogy, and imperfect measurements of risk versus reward.

A sudden and time sensitive opportunity to take a chance on a new job that offers less security but more potential reward … an investment decision to sell or purchase a particular stock or bond in a highly volatile market … a relationship decision of the most intensely personal type when an ultimatum is delivered … a gut wrenching choice to report a superior or a peer for significant misbehavior … an incident you witness in a bar or a street corner … a wrenching medical choice in the small hours of the morning standing over a relative’s hospital bed … a terrible moment on the scene of a car crash on a foggy highway ... the sound of gunshots in a busy mall—all require fast decisions.

The hardest decisions are those that must be made quickly in moments of stress and crisis. That certainly happens at sea routinely, often in combat, and even in peacetime under highly stressful but non-combat conditions. Examining that process—truly hard choices made in the crucible of high stress—is what I’d like to do in a few minutes this morning.

Because believe me, a moment may come, when you must choose whether to “risk it all.”

**

And to tell illustrate what the moment can be like, I’m going to tell you about two Navy officers, each of whom had such a choice in front of them.

One is the first African American woman to command a warship, and she went on to become the first African American woman to be a Navy 1-star, 2-star, 3-star, and ultimately a 4-star admiral. Her name is Michelle Howard. Her choice, believe it or not, involved pirates, Navy SEALs, and a brave decision at sea that turned out well. Her career accelerated from that moment of decision.

The other is a Navy captain named Brett Crozier, who had a brilliant career going—until the warship he commanded, USS ROOSEVELT, became infected with COVID, and he made a courageous choice to bring a spotlight to the situation. For him, the decision ended his career.

I will start with Admiral Michelle Howard.

One of the most difficult choices any political or military leader ever makes is the decision to attempt a hostage rescue. During my three years as commander of U.S. Southern Command in Miami, Florida, from 2006 to 2009, I spent a great deal of time focused on trying to organize the rescue of three American hostages held in brutal jungle confinement We made their rescue the number-one operational priority of the command. We had been working assiduously to locate them in their captivity and had U.S. special forces ready to conduct a rescue at a moment’s notice.

But the more I looked at the odds of successfully rescuing them, the less enthusiastic I became about launching a bold commando raid. When you really dig into the statistics on special forces hostage-rescue attempts, they are not very encouraging—especially against highly motivated and well-armed terrorist groups. . Generally in decision-making, a leader should not allow a desire for “perfect” to defeat a “very good” potential solution, but in the case of hostage rescue, you really need a near-perfect set of circumstances before pulling the figurative trigger.

Which brings us to Admiral Michelle Howard, a pioneering officer who at the one-star level in her career had to make that most difficult of decisions: literally and figuratively “pulling the trigger” on a hostage rescue in a scenario that seemed stacked against the hostage.

You’ve probably seen the movie. This is the story of Captain Richard Phillips, played brilliantly by Tom Hanks in the film Captain Phillips. The Michelle Howard character does not play a big role in the movie—but did in real life.

In 2009, a merchant ship, Maersk Alabama, commanded by Captain Richard Phillips, carried a crew of 23, plus a 19,000-ton cargo of humanitarian supplies. All aboard knew they were sailing through dangerous waters off the west coast of Africa; Captain Phillips ran the ship and crew through anti-piracy drills on April 7, the day before their ordeal began. Meanwhile, aboard the amphibious-assault ship USS Boxer, Admiral Howard was still adjusting to the rigors and rhythms of her new role in command of the anti-piracy task force.

As the sun set on April 7, neither could know how dramatically their circumstances would shift in the next twenty-four hours: by nightfall on the 8th, Captain Phillips would be a hostage aboard his own ship’s lifeboat, while Admiral Howard would be in direct contact with the president and organizing every U.S. naval asset in the area—and additional forces from the Arabian Gulf —in a race against time to save Captain Phillips

By Sunday the 12th, tensions aboard the lifeboat were nearing the breaking point: the pirates had been in the operation for the better part of five days, and there were no toilets or other creature comforts on the cramped craft. The pirates grew more panicky, and around 6 p.m., there was a scuffle aboard the lifeboat. Spotters aboard the Bainbridge saw a pirate leveling a rifle at Captain Phillips’s back.

Based on orders from Rear Admiral Howard, the SEALs received authorization to shoot. Minutes later, the snipers had a clear view of all three pirates aboard the lifeboat. Three shots rang out as one, and the three pirates dropped from view. A SEAL slid down the tow line, ensured the pirates were dead, and whisked Captain Phillips off the lifeboat.

It could easily have gone another way, ending Captain Phillips’ life and Michelle Howard’s career. If the plan had failed, she would have faced full accountability and her upward trajectory would have ended.

Howard’s plan—full of risk—had worked brilliantly.

But there is one other story I want to relate, which did not turn out so well for the decision- maker.

I’ve known Captain Brett Crozier for more than a decade, and he was a critical part of my team during NATO command and the war in Libya. His career trajectory was outstanding, and in 2019 he took command of an American super-carrier, USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT. When I learned that he would be soon be deploying forward to the western Pacific and probably the Arabian Gulf as captain in Roosevelt. I had little doubt he’d become a one-star admiral within a year or so.

But the outbreak of COVID-19 in his ship early last year following a port visit to Vietnam, an unexpected and dramatic turn of events that placed Crozier in an unenviable and unprecedented position. With the virus running rampant through his carrier’s 5,000-person crew, he worked diligently with his chain of command in the Pacific Fleet to find some way to get the carrier into port safely, heal his crew, and get the ship back to fighting capability as quickly as possible.

All of this was happening largely below the level of public scrutiny until, in frustration over lack of effective solutions and what appeared to him to be lack of attention from the top, Crozier wrote an email to his chain of command and chose to send it over an unclassified circuit, instead of more prudently using classified means to transmit it. It was the ultimate “red flare,” calling for help. Unfortunately, the email leaked, and created a firestorm of criticism directed toward his Navy chain of command and ultimately toward his own leadership in the crisis.

President Trump criticized him from the podium in the White House. The acting Secretary of the Navy, Thomas Modly, personally relieved him of command, and then flew from Washington to Guam to deliver an ill-advised and profanity-laced speech to the crew (who loved their captain and correctly viewed Crozier’s efforts as stemming entirely from his desire to care for them). The video of Captain Crozier departing his ship in Guam for the last time and being cheered by the entire crew is deeply moving.

The incident will be studied for decades in Navy leadership classes and especially in sessions preparing officers for command-at-sea. At the time he sent that “red flare” email, Brett Crozier was tired, frustrated, and dealing with a chain of command that offered a confusing and poorly orchestrated set of solutions. In retrospect, he should have sent it via a classified network. He failed to include as recipients all the right individuals in his chain of command. But there is no doubt that Crozier wrote it from his heart, was pleading for help from his bosses in an effort to save the lives of his sailors.

He must have known his career would suffer terribly and probably fatally—and it did, resulting in his “relief for cause” (the Navy’s version of firing someone in command), and effectively blocking him from selection to rear admiral. He had to know that was the overwhelmingly probable outcome of launching such a message. Yet he chose to put the welfare of his crew above his own career ambitions, precisely what the Navy would want of our sea captains.

It was a hard choice indeed.

He made the conscious decision to put the welfare of his 5,000-sailor crew above his own career. He stood and delivered for the men and women in ROOSEVELT. And it cost him an admiral’s stars. He risked it all … and lost his career. But he walked away with his honor.

***

Right about now, you are probably thinking, man, I’m glad I’m not joining the Navy. Fair enough.

But whatever your chosen path in life, a moment may very well come when you will have to risk it all. Because lives in the end are made up of the decisions thrust upon us. You may very well hit a point in life where you are called upon to risk it all— “all” being your career, the lives of others, perhaps even your own life. Hard to imagine on this beautiful Saturday morning. But for many of you, that moment will come.

So it is worth closing with a few things you can do to get ready for that moment.

What can we consider that will help us make good decisions fast under extreme pressure? How should we think in advance about making that kind of decision?

Gather all the intelligence that time permits. So often our choices are made with a faulty understanding of the simple facts of the case. In particular, we should be aware of the phenomenon of “belief bias,” which is applying what you think ought to be happening to what is actually unfolding. Knowing what is real and what is not is crucial; gathering intelligence relentlessly before moving to decision making is also crucial.

Understand the timeline. Very often people approaching decisions put themselves under artificial or self-imposed deadlines. Pushing back to get more time before committing is always worth attempting. You should never commit to a course of action before you must. Again and again, I’ve seen the best of the various bosses I’ve worked for—Secretary of Defense Bob Gates, for example—avoid “lunging at the ball,” instead finding a bit more time and space to make an informed decision.

Honestly consider the possible outcomes of your decision—both good and bad. This sounds so obvious, but on countless occasions I’ve seen smart, gifted people make a decision without really considering the full range of outcomes, especially in the negative direction. In the extraordinary science fiction novel Dune by Frank Herbert, the protagonist uses a drug that allows him to simultaneously see the entire web of events that occur down each leg of the timeline that could flow from his decisions. You won’t have that ability, obviously—until AI matures. But until then, make sure you think through both the good, the bad, and the ugly as the saying goes. The key is being brutally honest about the range of outcomes.

Evaluate the resources. This requires clear-eyed skepticism. Necessary supplies will almost never arrive early, equipment will break down, events will tend to stretch out, people will get tired, and on and on. As I was anticipating the chances of a hostage rescue operation in Colombia in 2006-2009, I was astounded by the level of detail and redundancy built into the work of the special operations teams from the Delta Force assigned to work with me. They had an enormous level of resources available, to include building an exact “mockup” of the jungle clearing where we thought the hostages were being held, then using it to rehearse endlessly. This had a positive effect on my thinking as a decision maker.

Focus on your people—but don’t be paralyzed with fear over their wellbeing. Whether you are leading a 5,000-person crew on an aircraft carrier like Captain Brett Crozier, or a three-person team on the sales force at Google, as a decision maker you have an obligation to understand the impact your choices will have on the people working for you. That does not mean you should become paralyzed with the thought that some of your people will suffer. Finding the balance between literally “throwing people at the problem” and taking calculated risks while keeping the mission and objective firmly in sight is the key.

Don’t get emotionally involved in people who are roadblocks. One of the greatest books ever written about leadership and decision making is Mario Puzo’s 20th-century classic The Godfather. The book and the films are replete with examples of decision-making both good and bad, and a central lesson is never to “hate your enemies” because it can cloud your judgement—and your decision-making skills. And also strive for civility, calmness in the crucible of decision—those around you will be watching, and sometimes outcomes depend on your calm state of mind. This echoes Kipling’s classic poem, “If” —“if you can keep your head when all about you / Are losing theirs and blaming it on you …”

Be determined. So often, decision-making is hard because we dither, worrying about what will occur. You can never predict the future with complete certainty, of course, but determination—a willful approach to problems—can be a tonic in such moments of indecision. As Teddy Roosevelt said, “the best decision is the right decision; the next best is the wrong decision; the worst thing you can do is not to make a decision.”

Be prepared to execute the minute you decide. Decision-making is actually not the end of most situations, but so often just the beginning. Even as you mentally conclude with the choice ahead of you, realize that communicating and advocating the decision is often as important as generating it. Finding the balance in avoiding the syndrome of “allowing perfect to become the enemy of good enough” is fundamental to the art of decision. We need to understand that measuring the outcome of a given choice—monitoring and metrics—is vital. Declaring success—knowing how to telegraph success, the use of optimism as a force multiplier in decision-making and knowing when to “find the exit” are all key themes that echo through these choices.

You won’t have time to ponder those thoughts in many cases—but by having thought through how you would make a critical, fast decision, and using these techniques in more normal, slower-paced scenarios—you will have the right ideas and approaches in mind when speed does become of the essence.

Two final thoughts:

Spend time reading and studying others who have faced hard decisions. Ask yourself, as you reread a novel like To Kill a Mockingbird, what you would do in the place of lawyer Atticus Finch. It’s a novel you probably haven’t read since you were about 14 years old. Read it again—it is profoundly about today’s America: social injustice, flawed judicial systems, the coming of age of a young woman, a wrenching choice a principled individual, with real costs attached. Literature and history are simulators for the hardest of decision-making – open a book that challenges you in that very important way every few months.

Lastly, and most important:

Fiercely hold onto your values as you decide. Here I mean your personal values: honesty, kindness, courage, determination, equality and equity, a belief in the rules, a desire to protect those weaker than ourselves. We execute our values imperfectly because we are human— but when the time comes to “risk it all,” they are the best touchstone you can have.

**

And so, we come to the end of this short voyage through the process of decision-making.

All decisions have consequences, and with hard choices come high risk—but potentially deeply satisfying outcomes. Perspective and balance are crucial in evaluating the choices we make—and in getting the hardest decisions to come out right.

But you won’t always get it right.

Indeed, we all must face the simple fact that no one’s decisions are uniformly right—I have made bad choices too many times to count. But whenever I’ve been faced with a truly hard choice, both at sea and ashore, I’ve put my faith in what I’ve learned along the voyage of life, at first from my parents and teachers, over time from my family and friends, from day days as a college student at Annapolis—as you have learned here at Sewanee—through the events of my career, and from the hard preparation of reading and reflecting on both history and contemporary role models.

**

The essence of my talk this morning is simple: first and foremost to congratulate you on the choice you made to come to Sewanee. Well done.

And having come here and studied, and learned, and grown, I know that you will be far better prepared for whatever life sends you way than when you came through the gate. As you follow Sewanee tradition and touch the roof of your car passing through the gates one last time heading home, making sure that your Sewanee Angel is with you, my hope is first and foremost that you never in fact have to “risk it all.”

But if you do, my hope is that by contemplating doing so ahead of time—putting yourself from time to time in the simulator of decision, studying the hard choices others have made, and consciously asking yourself “what would I do”—you will have gained a better of chance of making the right choices and thus finding the elusive balance between impulse and thought in the very crucible of decision.

As we say in the Navy, “Godspeed and open water” in all the choices you will make.

Or, as you say on this campus, “Yea, Sewanee’s Right” … and may you always choose well.

God bless you all