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Provided by ZENODO Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science Vol. 7(1), pp. 23-30, 2019 ISSN: 2354-2292 Copyright ©2019, the copyright of this article is retained by the author(s) DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.15580/GJPBCS.2019.1.072319143 https://gjournals.org/GJPBCS

Effects of Climate Change on Global Arabica ( arabica L) Production

Wakuma Merga1; Desalegn Alemayehu2

1Ethiopian Institute of agriculture Research, Teppi Agricultural research center, P.O.Box: 34 Teppi, Ethiopia. Email: wakumerga@ gmail. com, phone: +251921410110 2Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Jimma Agricultural Research Center, P.O.Box: 192 Jimma, Ethiopia. Email: alemayehu16@ yahoo. com, phone: +251933823141

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Article No.: 072319143 Coffee is the world’s most important tropical export crop. However, recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on . Climate change has Type: Review emerged in recent years as one of the most critical topics. Global and regional DOI: 10.15580/GJPBCS.2019.1.072319143 climate change impacts analysis shows that the impacts of climate change on climate suitability of Arabica coffee would be very variable at both the national and global levels. The global areas growing Arabica coffee divided into Submitted: 23/07/2019 Mesoamerica, South America, Africa and Asia-Pacific. The geographically differentiated impacts of climate change may alter the relative importance of Accepted: 03/08/2019 coffee from different countries in the global market. Moderate climate change will Published: 04/09/2019 increase the area suitable for Robusta coffee cultivation across the globe, but decrease it for Arabica. The key cause of the climate change is the burning of *Corresponding Author coal, oil, natural gas and mineralization of organic matter. The global dimension Wakuma Merga and scale of climate change with its pronounced variation of impacts on Arabica producer countries at regional, continental, and global scales. Climate change will E-mail: wakumerga@ gmail. com have different impacts and producers will have different vulnerabilities at small Phone: +251921410110 scales in the mountains where Arabica coffee grown in some countries, such as in Mesoamerica, will lose competitiveness on global markets for quality coffee. Keywords: Arabica Coffee; They have to diversify into other products to prevent adverse effects on their rural Climate change; Land suitability; economies generally, further research have to focus on discovering climate change adaptation strategies feasible for smallholder producers for practically Robusta coffee implement.

INTRODUCTION Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia, coffee is the main source of income for their societies (Bongase, 2017). The Coffee is one of the most lawful globally traded economically important coffee species are Arabica and commodities of many countries, consumers from all the Robusta which dominate the world trade (Dmowski and region purchase and enjoys coffee in their daily activities Dąbrowska, 2014). The production and productivity of (Iscaro, 2014). In addition, Davis et al. (2012) concluded both species are largely dependent on the climate for during their study, that coffee is the most traded attain high yields and quality (Bongase, 2017). commodity in the world next to petroleum. Brazil is the Climate change has appeared currently as the most top coffee producer and exporter followed by Vietnam critical issue. It is predicted that rising temperatures and and Colombia (DaMatta et al., 2007). In Uganda, water shortages force unhelpfully affect coffee Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 23-30, 2019 24 Merga and Alemayehu / Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science production suitability at lower altitude. The currently concern as Arabica is the preferred variety, and existing and the future predicted adverse effect of presently accounts for 70% of global coffee production climate change on coffee production would affect all (Magrach and Ghazoul, 2015). Most areas of projected coffee industry including consumers. Population of the increased coffee cultivation suitability will be found in world will rise to nine billion by 2050. By this scenario, currently forested locations. This creates potential for coffee production is decrease globally, especially in forest conversion, typical of recent trends in agricultural Africa. Coffee price varies inversely with production expansion in the past decades. Invasion of coffee into altering and generating the largest price increase. forested areas under the above-mentioned scenarios will Merely half of the area currently available for coffee have express for vulnerable vertebrate species and production by 2050. Two and half times of the current preservation areas. By assigning values to each grid cell area would be needed to be meeting the future demand. for the number of vulnerable variety, and number of Decreased production and raised in prices were overlapping priority areas for preservation, they indicated to reduce the coffee market by more than 5 projected that up to 2.2 million hectares of forest area million tons annually. As a result, many authors believe were needed for Arabica development(Magrach and that the area with ability for growing coffee would be Ghazoul, 2015). reduced by 16% by 2050, particularly for coffee Arabica. A lot of evidence shows that climate change has (Bongase, 2017). In Kenya, appreciable success has appeared currently and directly change common been made in coffee breeding to improve yields, quality conceptualization of many people in few years, makes and to manage the important fungal diseases, Coffee looking forward the serious topics of all stake holders berry deceases and Coffee leave rust. Still there is (Bongase, 2017). Since early 1900s Climate variation emerging issues such as climate changes have brought has been perceived and the causes usually up new challenges that require to be addressed to anthropogenic and natural drivers of climate (Anderson guarantee sustainability in coffee industry. The and Masters, 2009). The effect of climate fluctuation on challenges faced forms the basis for future approaches natural systems has begun as one of the most critical to develop cost effective and sustainable varieties that issues of humankind(Frisch et al., 2009). Many increase coffee production.(Gichimu, 2015). discovery proof that weather alteration is hastening at The global impacts of climate change analysis ample quicker stride than earlier that leading to indicated that, the impacts of climate change on climate irreversibly changes in major earth systems and suitability for Arabica coffee production would be very ecosystems (Rajesh et al., 2010). variable at both regional and global levels. Generally, the Coffee Arabica requires very specific impact of climate change in most of producing countries environmental conditions for successful production, is predicted to be negative, although within each country depending on the coffee variety grown. However, the it would vary a lot. Some areas would lose suitability crop is perennial, tropical crop that can grow under both while others would gain from increases in temperature humid lowlands and tropical humid or sub humid and possibly in rainfall (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). The highlands. Even though the average temperatures implications for adaptation strategies of earlier studies required for coffee Arabica range between 15 and 24°C, indicated the strong local dimension needed to adapt to rain fall 2000 mm per annul and elevation between 1000 climate change. Climate change will have different and 2000 m above sea level. However, Robusta coffee impacts and producers will have different exposure in required average temperature range between 24 and the mountains where Arabica coffee grows. The global 30°C, rainfall ~2,000 mm and altitude of about 800 m analysis provides a broad categorization of countries as above sea level (Killeen and Harper, 2016). The either seriously or less severely affected by climate objective of this manuscript is to review the impacts of change. When some areas become more suitable, the climate change on Arabica coffee production and others will lose suitability. This calls for approaches at change in Ecological suitability of the crop. the limited scale to help farmers to adapt to climate change. (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). Climate change and coffee production The prediction study of Magrach and Ghazoul (2015) indicated that climate change will be detrimental All coffee producing countries in America, Africa, Asia, for Arabica production, though the area suitable for and Oceania would gain some suit ability for growing Robusta will increase greatly by 2050. Both Arabica and Arabica coffee. Colombia, Ethiopia, , Mexico, Robusta will be subject to important geographical and Guatemala have large areas of land at high transformation in their distribution. Many projected elevation that receive adequate rainfall. An upward move coffee-optimal areas will coexist with existing forest and of their coffee growing areas could moderate the general agricultural land uses. The expectations projected impact of climate change on their countries’ coffee distribution and expansion of Robusta coffee-growing production. An important condition is that the areas at areas can potentially be meeting without incurring higher altitudes are convenient, have appropriate soil deforestation or crop substitution, as climatic conditions conditions, and whose current or future inhabitants are across most of the future suitable coffee-growing area willing to grow Arabica coffee rather than other crops advantage the hardier Robusta variety. In contrast, only (Schroth et al., 2015) Frequently, these conditions may 17% of the area is optimal for Arabica. This raises some not all come together, with the outcome that Arabica Merga and Alemayehu / Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science 25 coffee production may locally decline (Ovalle-Rivera et negatively affected by climate change than their al., 2015). competitors on the global Arabica coffee industries The current altitude range coffee-growing areas (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). in each region, together with their topography, will determine the overall consequence of climate change on Coffee sector and climate change current farms. They will also determine whether farm expansion at higher elevations can counterbalance for Coffee is the world’s most important legal export unsuitability at lower elevations. The assumption of stimulant crops. However the recent studies predict Arabica coffee transmigrate to higher altitude, as severe climate change impacts on its production temperatures increase is unlikely to be modified by (Craparo et al., 2015). The expected decrease in profit changes in precipitation, which were mostly minor. The and greater economic risk of coffee production may ample impacts are due to precipitation changes during locally and temporarily have positive environmental the dry season, but there is much uncertainty in their affects, however in general and over a long period of forecasting (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). time these impacts will likely be severe and negative (Schroth et al., 2009). Potts (2003), identified that global Influence of climate change on world coffee coffee industries were under risk because of declining production forests species; water pollution, diminishing biodiversity to persistently uncertain incomes and makes currently a The global areas growing Arabica coffee were divided fluctuated market in action (Giovannucci and Koekoek, into Mesoamerica, South America, Africa and Asia- 2003). Pacific(Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). The patterns of Most scientific studies predicted that coffee change by 2050s in climate and land suitability of sectors would be affected due to climate variation over Arabica coffee for these regions; Mesoamerica Located the next four decades (Killeen and Harper, 2016). at latitude 10–20°N on the narrow land of Central According to Killeen and Harper (2016) reveal, that America, this zone is characterized by rugged volcanic coffee production area changed since suitable areas natural elevation up to 4000 masl with various levels of become prone to periodic drought. Many suitable areas suitability for Arabica coffee. The General crop models become unsuitable due to climate variation (Dekens and predict that annual precipitation would only decrease Bagamb, 2014). The reduction of suitable land for coffee from 1670 mm now to 1600 mm, and the magnitude of production will influence the world coffee market and dry months or months with less than 100mm of rainfall increase the price of coffee (Haggar and Schepp, 2011). would decrease from six to five months. Maximum and The influence of this climate variation makes the farmers mean temperatures would rise by 2°C (Ovalle-Rivera et to be obliged, reduce ability to invest in production and al., 2015). Higher temperatures would move the climates decrease their profits (Laderach et al., 2010b). The suitable for Arabica coffee from the current 400–2000 m climate variations influence coffee industry from above sea level to 800–2500 m above sea level. production to export (Bongase, 2017). World population Nicaragua and El Salvador, which do not have high will increase to nine billion by 2050 and in this situation, elevations, would be most affected. Guatemala, Mexico, coffee production is too decrease worldwide, mainly in Honduras, and Costa Rica would increase suitability at Africa generate the largest price rises (Eakin and elevations 1500–2500 m above sea level, which could Wehbe, 2009). counterbalance in part for losses at lower altitudes. Land East African countries are the regions where at higher altitudes is often coved by forest. Arabica coffee would be least affected by higher Consequently, we expect increased land-use pressure temperatures with the exception of Uganda and , on high-elevation forests. Mesoamerica would face an and New Guinea in the Pacific. On the other hand, average decrease in the area suitable for Arabica coffee Mesoamerica would be the most affected area, up to 30%, with largest losses for Mexico (29%) and particularly Nicaragua and El Salvador. While Arabica smallest losses for Guatemala (19%). (Ovalle-Rivera et coffee is an important export of Mesoamerica, there al., 2015). would be expected that severe economic impacts occur The geographically differentiated impacts of there. Zullo et al. (2011), suggested that climate change climate change may alter the relative importance of negatively effects Brazil the world's leading Arabica coffee from different countries in the world market. producer, as well as India and Indochina. Were as Accordingly, Guatemala and Costa Rica regions may Andes, parts of southern Africa and Madagascar and compensate for adjacent Nicaragua and El Salvador as Indonesia were moderately affected regions by climate when their supply volumes and quality turn down. On the change (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). Some countries, other hand, the Andean producers may gate advantage such as Mesoamerica, will lose competitiveness in from a decline in coffee volume and quality in the global markets for quality coffee. They might need to adversely affected Mesoamerica and Brazil. When we diversify into other products to avoid adverse effects on see at global level, there could be a shift in production their rural economies (Schroth and Ruf, 2014). While from Latin America to East Africa and Indonesia. even other regions such as Andes, East Africa and Indonesia though no country would experience better climatic may take advantage of new market opportunities. But suitability, there could be countries which were less they may require particular policies and strategies to 26 Merga and Alemayehu / Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science ensure that expansion of coffee farmlands takes place in year, making the farmers to harvest small volume of ecologically suitable areas (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). yield continuously (Jassogne et al., 2013). This change will affect the crop physiology in particular during the Impact of climate change on coffee production blossoming and fruit filling stage (Jassogne et al., 2013).

Many researchers concluded that the fluctuation of Changes in suitable land for coffee cultivation climate in the coffee growing area resulted in reduction in the yield and quality, increasing the outbreak of pest Arabica coffee grows in most of tropical countries at disease, increasing cost of production by oblige using different altitudinal ranges. However, currently the supplementary irrigation and other inorganic inputs and suitable area for coffee production shifted from low reduced production area. This outcome of the problem elevation to high lands due to climate change. In Andes, may make the sector to have negative impact on all the it predicted to move from presently 500–1500 m above actors in the sector (Bongase, 2017). Davis (2012) sea level to 1000–2800 m above sea level. Areas below declared that the profoundly negative trend for the future 1800 m above sea level in Peru, Colombia and Ecuador distribution of indigenous Arabica coffee would be 65% would become less suitable; however, they will gain reduction in the number of ecologically suitable areas, some suitable areas at higher elevations. In Brazil, there and at worst scenarios almost 100% reduction, by 2080 would be a shift in suitable climates from the current under the effect of raised global climate. The global 400–1500 m above sea level to 800–1600 m above sea climate is predicted to raise and the change in level. Brazil has no high elevations and grows large precipitation regimes and as a result, traditional coffee areas of Arabica coffee at low elevations, which growing area may disappear and new areas may appear predicted to suffer significant losses in suitability for (Laderach et al., 2010). The associations between the coffee. Only a few producers at higher elevations could climatic parameters and coffee production are quite be gain suitability. Generally, the Andes countries would difficult, because it affect the overall growth performance lose 16–20% of the present land suitable for Arabica of the plants at different growth stages (Camargo, 2010). coffee whereas Brazil would lose 25%. These emphasize only are for where Arabica coffee growers. Impacts on coffee yield and quality Even though losses in the Andes will be less than in Brazil, the difference is that there will be alternatives in The geographically differentiated impacts of climate the Andes that Brazil will not have (Ovalle-Rivera et al., change may change the significance of coffee from 2015). different countries in the world market. In regional coffee In Africa, two sub-regions grow Arabica coffee. industry, Guatemala and Costa Rica may compensate The East African sub-region is located 10°N–11°S for neighboring Nicaragua and El Salvador as their latitude at high elevation in the Great Rift Valley at the production amount and quality decline. On a continental original ecology of Coffea arabica. The southern Africa scale, the Andean producers might be benefit from a and Madagascar sub-region is in the mountains at decline in coffee quantity and quality in the more latitudes 10°–26°S. There is no Arabica coffee grown negatively affected Mesoamerica and Brazil. When the above 2500 m above sea level in the whole region worldwide arabica coffee production, there could be a (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). In the East African sub- shift in production from Latin American to Eastern region, the precipitation is predicted to increase to some African and Indonesian regions. Even though no region extent, from 1400 mm to 1440 mm, and the dry season would get improved climatic appropriateness, there decrease from five to four months. In Southern Africa possibly will be countries less affected by change in and Madagascar, annual rainfall predicted to become climate than their competitors in the world Arabica coffee only a little more seasonal with a slight increase in the producing countries (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). wettest month and a slight decrease during the driest The possible yield and quality of coffee is month. The dry season would decrease from seven to determined by weather condition (Haggar, 2016). The six months. Maximum and minimum mean temperatures extended drought periods, which resulted in the are predicted to increase by about 2° C throughout the reduction of coffee amount and quality (Masters et al., region (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). In East Africa, land 2010). In other cause of climate change such unreliable suitable for Arabica coffee is predicted to shift from 400– precipitation throughout growth stages of the crop, be 2000 m above sea level to 800–2500 m above sea level. able to influence the easy to discover the soil water and There would be modest change in suitability of the areas reduce of the crops production (Camargo, 2010). The in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, and Burundi that currently Arabica coffee is more susceptible to climate change, grow Arabica coffee. There may be gains as areas at mostly during flowering and fruit filling stage (Haggar, higher elevations 1500–2400 m above sea level become 2016). In particular, coffee flowering triggered by the more suitable. Tanzania and Uganda would lose suitable beginning of precipitation at the begin of rain season, in area at elevations below 1400 m above sea level. In the meantime if precipitation drops off or becomes too Southern Africa and Madagascar, the suitable climates serious, flowers and fruit might drop from the tree would shift upward from 500–1700 m above sea level to (Laderach et al., 2010). The unpredictable rains will 700–2000 m above sea level, resulting in losses of make coffee to flower at various times throughout the suitable area at lower elevations, particularly in Merga and Alemayehu / Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science 27

Zimbabwe, as its growing area are at low altitudes expected from precipitation changes during the dry (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). season, but there is much uncertainty in their prediction In the Asia-Pacific region, the areas that produce (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). Arabica coffee are in India, Indochina, Indonesia and the Pacific Islands. In India and Indochina, it grows at Occurrence of Coffee pests and diseases due to latitude 3°– 24°N, in southern India at altitude up to 2500 climate changes m above sea level and in Vietnam at altitude less than 2000 m above sea level. The coffee growing areas in Know days Climate change is the most important factor Indonesia and Pacific islands are at latitudes 3°N–10°S. for the incidence most plant disease. So that climate In India and Indochina, annual rainfall predicted to variation is the most favorable for increase of coffee pest increase slightly with little change. In Indonesia and and disease. Globally it cause estimated loss of 13% Pacific Islands Only, small amount of changes in rainfall yield reduction (Agegnehu et al., 2015). Major disease are predicted (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). Suitable that occurred because of climate variation during coffee climates for Arabica coffee in India and Indochina would growing will increase pest and disease prevalence, shift upward from the current 400–1500 m above sea expanding the altitudinal range in which the fungal level to 700–1800 m above sea level. India and Laos disease coffee rust and the coffee berry borer can would experience a loss of suitability below 1200 m survive (Laderach et al., 2010b). For example, rising above sea level. In Indonesia and the Pacific islands, temperatures will increase infestation by the Coffee suitable climates would also move upward from the berry borer (Hypothenemus hampeii), particularly where current 500–2000 m above sea level to 800–2300 m coffee grows without shade and the cropping is above sea level. Indonesia would be expected to suffer continuous throughout the year (Walyaro, 2010). by decline of 21–37% in the land suitable to produce Jaramillo et al. (2011) predicted that climate change Arabica coffee, while Papua New Guinea with its high would worsen pest prevalence like berry borer in Eastern elevations might be affected. The area that is suitable for Africa. Consequences of this event suffer viability of growing Arabica coffee in Indonesia would be smaller in current high quality producers Climate change 2050s than its now, but that the suitable area in 2050s increases need for fungicides and lead to a resurgence would still be larger than the area currently used for of certain pests and diseases on coffee (Gianessi and growing the crop, suggesting that through a shift in Williams, 2011). In the case study of Colombia and production areas current total production levels might be Ethiopia, an increase in rainfall and temperature maintained (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). threatens the coffee at an alarming rate, respectively For the main coffee growing countries of Africa for and is more conducive, for pests and disease both Arabica and Robusta coffee models shows that prevalence (Iscaro, 2014). impacts are highly negative for Arabica coffee, with Increasing demand for Arabica could lead to Arabica suitable areas of Mozambique, Uganda and forest clearance as conditions for its cultivation will be Tanzania almost disappearing (> 50 %,) areas of spatially more restricted, thus constraining land Burundi and Rwanda reducing significantly 20-50 % allocation options. The coffee berry borer that can cause reduction, and the least important but still noticeable up to 24% yield reduction will mediate the degree of negative effects on Kenya and Ethiopia (< 15 % forest loss to Arabica farming. In such situation, the reduction). For Robusta coffee, models indicate that project conversion of up to 2.2 million hectares of three countries might experience considerably negative forestland to coffee plantations to fulfill the world market impacts: Mozambique, Uganda and Tanzania, whereas demands of Arabica coffee. This has corresponding the rest of countries Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and implications for carbon storage, and will affect areas Burundi are more possibly to gains in Robusta coffee currently designated as biodiversity priority areas, and suitable areas. Based on these results, it is possibly that might mean projected local losses of 35% of threatened two phenomena will be observed for coffee in East vertebrate species on average. (Magrach and Ghazoul, Africa: an overall reduction in arabica growing areas 2015). accompanied by migration and hence concentration towards higher altitudes; and a replacement of heat- Mitigation strategies stressed arabica areas below 1500 m. above sea level by the more heat-tolerant Robusta (Bunn et al., 2014, Moderate climate change will increase the area suitable Ramirez-Villegas and Thornton, 2015). for Robusta coffee growing across the world, but decline The range of altitude of current coffee-growing it for Arabica. There will also be major regional shifts, areas in each region, together with their topography, will and some of the world’s largest coffee producers might determine the overall impact of climate change on have to adopt shade management and irrigation to current farms. They will also determine whether farm mitigate climatic stresses. At international level, meeting expansion at higher elevations can compensate for lost future Robusta demand can theoretically, be met without suitability at lower altitude. The scenario of Arabica deforestation. On the other hand increasing demand for coffee migrating to higher altitude, as temperatures rise Arabica coffee will very likely force deforestation. is unlikely to be modified by changes in precipitation, Deforestation will harmfully affect endangered vertebrate which were mostly minor. The largest impacts are to be kinds concern will be given to conservation areas, and 28 Merga and Alemayehu / Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science consequence in carbon emissions. The effects of coffee the agronomic technologies on coffee copping systems berry borer in climate changes will be arbitrate the particularly in marginal lands, is a challenge to be magnitude of changes. In addition, sparing forest lands handled within the near future (Camargo, 2010). Under from conversion to coffee plantation area might need agronomical aspects some strategies may have on establishing coffee in areas that have not by tradition global warming in coffee crop that can satisfy the impact been linked with coffee farming, and will as a result the of adverse temperatures are agronomical mitigations willingness of farmers depends to adopt an unfamiliar such as shading management system, planting at high crop (Magrach and Ghazoul, 2015). population, forest coved soil, appropriate irrigation and agronomical adaptation with targeting on breeding Green house gas reduction programs. For the coming decades the agriculture, in particular the coffee crop will be more developed and The main reason of the climate change is the burning of protected with agronomic techniques of adaptation and things like; coal, oil, natural gas and mineralization of mitigation that certainly will continue to be developed by organic matter; these direct to rise in the the technological and systematic world coffee crop content of the environment. Carbon dioxide and growing areas (Camargo, 2010). methane are the most greenhouse gases that influence The very short flowering phase for coffee flowers global climate through emissions (Anderson and might be to a great extent affected by varying rainfall Masters, 2009). Most times, the climate change is felt patterns, with important direct effects on flowers but also through changing climate weather such as when the affecting their interaction with their main pollinators rainy season does not start when it is forecasted to rain, (Peters and Carroll, 2012). Further, the different coffee- dry season lasts longer than usual, rains too much and growing methods used across the world might have causes flood, temperature becomes much colder or different buffering effects against climate change hotter than usual (Enomoto et al., 2011) do. This climatic (Magrach and Ghazoul, 2015). variability has always been the main factor responsible for the reduction of coffee yields in the world and Shifting to other production determines the future coffee production status in the coffee producer’s countries (Kasterine and Vanzetti, The area suitable for both Arabica and Robusta 2010). cultivation will be sufficient under some climate change Mitigation of global warming involves taking scenarios to match future expected demand, there will actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to be regional shifts in the global suitability for coffee as enhance sinks aimed at reducing the extent of global suggested by Bunn et al. (2015). In particular, the warming measures to adapt to coffee cultivation to suitability for future coffee farming of Brazil, now days climate change also contributing to reducing carbon the world’s largest producer is expected to decline. This dioxide. Other environmental benefits include enhanced result is driven by increases in rainfall and temperature, water storage, the regulation of local temperatures, and coupled with increased seasonality, drier dry seasons, biodiversity conservation. (Bongase, 2017). and wetter and warmer wet seasons (Haggar and The projected impacts to forest cover, biodiversity Schepp, 2012). Such changes might be mitigated and carbon will additionally be shaped by land use and through irrigation and increasing tree shade over the management decisions made by coffee cultivators. currently open sun plantations that constitute the Shade tree cover might mitigate adverse climatic effects common system of coffee cultivation in these areas. by alleviating temperature and drought stresses Shade tree management alleviates temperature and (Tscharntke et al., 2011), and can also reduce coffee drought stresses, and can also reduce coffee berry borer berry borer impact (Jaramillo et al., 2013) Moreover, impact (Jaramillo et al., 2013). Continued climate coffee under native shade trees can support substantial change in this region coupled with extreme events might biodiversity within modified landscapes. Even though ultimately favor a shift to other less sensitive crops, with coffee cultivated under shade is normally less oil palm being one possible candidate (Magrach and productive; Farmers are more likely to avoid Ghazoul, 2015). Even if coffee cultivation is vulnerabilities associated with climatic extremes and accommodated on non-forested and non-crop lands, its biotic pressures through shade tree management. development might nevertheless incur conflicts with (Magrach and Ghazoul, 2015). other land cover types which may in themselves have biodiversity or other resource or ecosystem service Agronomic practice values, which should be evaluated at local scales (e.g., if it moves into higher altitudes as suggested by Magrach Agronomic techniques can be used, alone or in a and Ghazoul (2015). complementary way to mitigate extreme meteorological events and to face the challenge of climatic variability or Climate smart Breeding global warming on coffee crop. Fundamental scientific research using different coffee crop management, The global dimension and scale of global climate change genetic breeding and new molecular tools and focusing with its pronounced variation of impacts on Arabica on this subject is high recommended, and the impact of producer countries at national, regional, and Merga and Alemayehu / Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science 29 international scales. These show that adaptation coming decades. Countries, that lose aggressiveness in systems area unit needed in the least levels. In general, international markets for quality low, need to diversify there have been a requirement for high-quality kinds of into alternative merchandise to cut back adverse effects Arabica that area unit higher tailored to higher on their economies. Andes, East Africa and Indonesia temperatures. This should be a priority for plant breeders could cash on latest market opportunities. However, they in the coming decades (Ovalle-Rivera et al., 2015). need specific policies and methods to make sure that Higher science and property management of natural enlargement of low farmlands takes place in appropriate recourses together with the utilization of drought and Arabica low growing ecologies. warmth resistant varieties, irrigation, and shade cowl area unit sensible initial steps (Bongase, 2017). REFERENCES

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Cite this Article: Merga, W; Alemayehu, D (2019). Effects of Climate Change on Global Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica L) Production. Greener Journal of Plant Breeding and Crop Science, 7(1): 23-30, https://doi.org/10.15580/GJPBCS.2019.1.072319143.