SRDXXX10.1177/2378023117718122SociusHayward and Rybińska 718122research-article2017 Original Article Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World Volume 3: 1 –14 © The Author(s) 2017 “Super Bowl Babies”: Do Counties with Reprints and permissions: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav Super Bowl Winning Teams Experience DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/2378023117718122 10.1177/2378023117718122 Increases in Births Nine Months Later? srd.sagepub.com George M. Hayward1 and Anna Rybińska1 Abstract Following the claim of a highly publicized National Football League (NFL) commercial, we test whether the Super Bowl provides a positive exogenous shock to fertility in counties of winning teams. Using stadium locations to identify teams’ counties, we analyze the number of births in counties of both winning and losing teams for 10 recent Super Bowls. We also test for state effects and general effects of the NFL playoffs. Overall, our results show no clear pattern of increases in the number of births in winning counties nine months after the Super Bowl. We also do not find that births are affected at the state level or that counties competing in the playoffs are affected. Altogether, these results cast doubt on the NFL’s claim that winning cities experience increases in births nine months after the Super Bowl. Keywords Super Bowl, fertility, birth rates, football, sporting events Sports are a dominant part of the culture in the United States Internet and social media platforms.1 The commercial begins and around the world, with large-scale sporting events, such with the following claim: “Data suggests 9 months after a as the Super Bowl, Olympics, and World Cup, regularly Super Bowl victory, winning cities see a rise in births” (NFL attracting millions of viewers or attendees. The most recent 2016b). The rest of the commercial features choirs of chil- World Cup, in 2014, even surpassed a billion viewers (Kantar dren—allegedly conceived on the nights of previous Super Media 2015). Because fans are deeply invested in the suc- Bowls—singing a modified version of Seal’s “Kiss from a cess of their favorite teams, it is worth investigating how out- Rose” while dressed in the regalia of their hometown foot- comes of these games affect population-level dynamics and ball teams. The clear assumption is that the euphoria follow- behavior. ing a Super Bowl victory leads to increased intercourse One particular area in need of further inquiry is that of among local fans of that team. The NFL has since created sport-related fertility. A study conducted by Montesinos et al. two additional commercials based on the same phenomenon (2013) found that births increased in Spain nine months after (NFL 2016a, 2017), and news outlets in Denver covered the Barcelona won a semifinal match in the European Champions arrival of “Super Bowl Babies” in their city last year (Brady League tournament. Little other research on sport-related 2016; Daru 2016). fertility exists, yet sporting events, competition, winning As adorable as these commercials are, they prompt further experiences, and even vicarious winning experiences have empirical investigation into their claims and the broader idea of been associated with team identification (Cialdini et al. 1976), testosterone increases (Bernhardt et al. 1998), and 1Online news outlets include the NFL, Fox Sports, ESPN, Sports heightened interest in sexual stimuli (Gorelik and Bjorklund Illustrated, CBS, CNN, USA Today, and the Huffington Post, 2015). For these reasons, large-scale sporting events have the among others. potential to function as exogenous shocks to fertility. The National Football League (NFL) is aware of this 1University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC, USA potential and claims to have confirmed birth increases fol- lowing the annual Super Bowl in the United States. On Corresponding Author: February 7, 2016, the NFL aired a commercial during the George M. Hayward, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 155 Hamilton Hall - CB 3210, Chapel Hill, NC 27517, USA. Super Bowl that triggered a flurry of excitement across the Email: [email protected] Creative Commons CC BY: This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (http://www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). 2 Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World sport-related fertility shocks. Accordingly, our aim for this of these events, the New York City blackout of 1965, was paper is to rigorously test the NFL’s central claim regarding discredited a few years later (Udry 1970). To our knowledge, “Super Bowl Babies” in cities of winning teams. Unfortunately, rigorous empirical studies do not yet exist for the others. preliminary attempts to contact the NFL have been unsuccess- While some fertility stories are surely no more than ful, and their sources of data, study design, and methodology rumors or even “urban legends” (Brunvand 1993), some are unclear (to our knowledge, this is not public information). studies have found fertility effects of exogenous shocks. For Lacking those details, we propose our own analytic strategy to example, there was a decrease in fertility among southern test whether this phenomenon is real. Overall, this paper makes U.S. women after the Brown v. Board of Education decision two contributions to existing research. First, it is the study of a in 1954 (Rindfuss, Reed, and St. John 1978). There was an positive, recurring exogenous shock to fertility, which is increase in births following Hurricane Hugo in 1989 (Cohan uncommon in the existing literature. Second, it is one of the and Cole 2002). A nuanced study on hurricanes along the first studies to test whether large-scale sporting events can have Atlantic and Gulf coasts in the United States found that low- demographic repercussions. Both of these contributions over- severity advisories were associated with increases in births lap in their relevance to diverse fields of inquiry such as sociol- but that high-severity advisories were associated with ogy, psychology, demography, and even physiology. decreases in births (Evans, Hu, and Zhao 2010). There was To examine increases in births after winning the Super also an increase in births following the Oklahoma City Bowl, we use county-level birth data across the United States bombing in 1995 (Rodgers, St. John, and Coleman 2005). for the 10 Super Bowls that correspond to the 2003–2012 sea- For sporting events, Montesinos et al. (2013) found an sons. We test the NFL’s claim by first analyzing Super Bowl increase in births in central Catalonia, Spain, nine months winning and losing counties individually. We then compare after a last-minute goal placed Barcelona into the Union of Super Bowl winning and losing counties to all other metro- European Football Associations (UEFA) Champions League politan counties within their respective states. Next, we test final. Very recent anecdotal reports could suggest a similar whether births are affected at the state level for both winning soccer-related boom in Iceland (Gibson 2017). and losing teams. We include counties of losing teams in our The Super Bowl provides an interesting case study as an tests to ensure that any effect on winners is not simply due to exogenous shock to fertility for two main reasons. First, the playing in the Super Bowl but rather winning it. Finally, we viewership is substantial, with 111 million viewers in 2017 test an effect that goes beyond the NFL’s claim but is consis- and over 40 million households tuning in nearly every year tent with their implied causal mechanism (celebratory inter- since 1993 (Nielson 2017). Despite this massive population course): whether participating in the playoffs is associated viewership and symbolic importance of the game, very little with births nine months later. While the Super Bowl is only a research has investigated the relationship between large- brief event on a single day, the NFL playoffs that precede it scale sporting events and fertility. Second, the suggested are a month long, and dedicated fans across the country are causal mechanism, alluded to in the modified version of teeming with excitement as they watch their favorite teams Seal’s song, is a state of euphoria that leads to intercourse. It compete. Entering the playoffs, advancing to the second is thus an opportunity to study a positive and recurring exog- round, advancing to the third round, advancing to the Super enous shock to fertility, which is uncommon in the existing Bowl, and winning the Super Bowl are all accomplishments literature.3 and reasons for fans to feel euphoric and celebrate. Thus, we also test whether counties with playoff contenders have birth Possible Explanations for “Super Bowl Babies” increases nine months later compared to counties that do not. Insight from numerous fields, including sociology, psychol- Background ogy, and physiology, can all guide theorizing about the cre- ation of Super Bowl babies among elated fans. To begin, the The notion that significant events, or exogenous shocks, can devotion of sports fans is often extreme, and sports are fol- influence fertility behaviors is not new. However, anecdotes lowed, practiced, and revered like religion by a large number and speculation abound more than empirical evidence. For of fans and athletes alike. Not only do sports contain rituals, example, baby booms have been given media attention after relics, and practices, but they also engender values, devotion, the New York City blackout in 1965 (Tolchin 1966); the ter- and commitment and provide a sense of purpose, meaning, rorist attacks of September 11, 2001; the northeast blackout and community to individuals (Price 2001a; Schultz and of 2003; hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne in 2004; Sheffer 2016).