Image: Thomas Hawk, Flickr. REAGAN’S HOPE R

RICHARD ALLSOP Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs

We have just witnessed the political funeral of ’ opined Tom Pettit of ‘NBC on the night in January 1980 when Reagan lost the Iowa Reagan Rising: The Decisive caucuses to George Bush. Years, 1976-1980 It was only a narrow loss, but By Craig Shirley it was a bad one. Reagan should Broadside Books, Harper Collins, pp 432 have had a lock on Iowa because he retained a reservoir of latent support there from his time as a young radio announcer. Bush, on the other hand, give him a realistic chance. had no connection to the state. It The electoral cycle from 1976 was only in the weeks leading up to to 1980 rarely saw Reagan’s polling the Iowa vote that Bush had emerged numbers in a convincing position. from a pack of potential Republican For instance, in mid-1978 he was nominees. After Bush’s stunning not only behind an increasingly win it was hard to see what would unpopular President , stop Bush’s momentum in the next but in a hypothetical Republican big contest, the New Hampshire contest with Ford he trailed by primary in late February 1980. ten points. These figures ledThe Washington Post to conclude that with ‘age his greatest handicap’ IT WAS ‘THE EUREKA COLLEGE-EDUCATED he had only ‘a slim chance for the > MOVIE STAR FROM presidency in 1980’. However, in HUMBLE ORIGINS, NOT 1980 Reagan went two better than in THE YALE-EDUCATED 1976, winning both the Republican BLUE-BLOOD, WHO nomination and then the general WAS MORE WELL-READ election in a landslide—taking 44 of AND THOUGHTFUL’. the 50 states. Reagan scholar Craig Shirley’s The discounting of Reagan in early new book, Reagan Rising: The 1980 was not a new phenomenon. Decisive Years, 1976-1980, provides When he had narrowly failed to a lucid explanation of how this seize the Republican nomination happened. Shirley has written three from incumbent President previous books about Reagan, in 1976, many including works on the 1976 and assumed that Reagan’s hopes of 1980 election campaigns. This becoming President had gone. The volume links those two books, conventional wisdom was that by taking the story up to Reagan’s 1980 he would be too old to be a comeback victory in the 1980 serious candidate. This criticism New Hampshire primary. New only added a further string to those Hampshire wiped away the who had always maintained that his embarrassment of the Iowa defeat policy positions were too extreme to and set Reagan on course for a string Despite doubts about his age, intellect, and political philosophy, Ronald

Reagan’s message of hope won him the presidency, writes Richard Allsop. OCTOBER 2017 | IPA Review 63 Volume 69 I 3 REAGAN’S HOPE R

important for voters than leadership good fortune’ that Reagan was the and described them as ‘high- qualities. Incumbent President Republican frontrunner. They were minded men of serious purpose Carter certainly did not look like hardly alone in their assessment. It and scholarly thought’ but at the a strong leader. Carter’s approval was not only the political left who same time it was good-natured, rating slumped to 19 per cent by underestimated Reagan, nor the ‘disagreement without being 1979—and when he attempted to liberal Republican establishment, disagreeable’. In the end, it was run a six mile race he collapsed but even some sympathisers from Reagan’s ability to be serious about four miles into it. The picture of his his previous campaigns were no serious matters while at the same anguished face provided an awful longer on board. This was often time not appearing to take himself metaphor for his presidency. As because, with a wide choice of too seriously which stood out. Shirley writes ‘Americans now pitied potential nominees, they thought However, before Reagan’s own their president. It was devastating.’ other younger candidates might strengths propelled him to victory The President looked weak on a have a better chance of winning in November 1980 he had, in variety of key issues, particularly both the primary and the general Shirley’s opinion, to overcome one relations with the Soviets. He election. major hurdle. It was not a political suffered from that singular fault opponent, but his own campaign of bad leaders, the desire to REAGAN’S MESSAGE manager, John Sears, who did the micromanage, in his case manifested WAS NOT ONLY THAT most to hinder Regan’s chances. by issuing forms for his staff to fill in > THE UNITED STATES Throughout 1979, Sears did Reagan a to show what time they showed up COULD BE IMPROVED— major disservice by insisting he keep for work. Shirley comments acidly IT WAS THAT ALL a low profile, declining numerous that ‘one would hope the president THE WORLD COULD opportunities to speak at public of the United States would have SHARE IN THE forums and appear in the media. AMERICAN DREAM. bigger things on his mind than what Shirley’s scathing assessment is that time the woman from the steno Sears imposed a form of ‘paralysis’ pool arrived’. Underestimation of Reagan’s on the campaign by denying it the

President Ronald Reagan and First Lady Nancy Reagan following the swearing in ceremony, January 1981. | AAP Image. Carter looked extremely qualities and ability was a constant use of its best asset, Reagan. vulnerable to a primary challenge theme. One critic neatly summed It was only after the shock loss from Teddy Kennedy, as voters up the negative assessments with in Iowa that voters began again to of further primary wins which THE ON-GOING The shift away from the yearned for a bit of Kennedy magic the comment that ‘Reagan has never see the real Ronald Reagan. This forced Bush’s withdrawal by ECONOMIC MALAISE established big government and imagined that Teddy might convinced large enough numbers of book concludes with the Reagan late May. > OF THE LATE 1970S consensus also began to be reflected provide a last chance to recreate Americans that he is smart enough comeback in the New Hampshire There is no doubt that the REINFORCED in the electoral cycle between 1976 Camelot. However, a combination of and deep enough to be president’. primary, where his triumph in times suited Reagan. Even by 1976, SCEPTICISM and 1980. There was the Proposition some awful campaign performances The problem with that judgement a debate in Nashua (dubbed the the combination of the United OF WHETHER 13 tax revolt in California and and the detailed recital of the murky was that it was just not true. Nashua Moment) set him on the States military failure in Vietnam, GOVERNMENTS COULD clear signs in mid-term elections car accident at Chappaquiddick Reagan had spent many years of path to victory. Having already Watergate, and the oil crisis had BE TRUSTED TO SOLVE that Republican voters wanted meant the expected surge of support his life taking long train journeys written a volume on the actual started to create doubt in the public EVERY PROBLEM. more lively combatants than the for Kennedy in the Democratic as he had a fear of flying. On those election, here Shirley only provides mind about the role of government. traditional moderate version. primaries never eventuated. Further, trips he took along suitcases full of a brief synopsis of what happened in However, the on-going economic bureaucracy and the welfare Shirley pays significant attention Carter got some benefit in the books, magazines and newspapers the rest of 1980. malaise of the late 1970s reinforced state, such as the dentist who to a primary race in New Jersey primary challenge by voters rallying and read voraciously, particularly on Reagan had refined his message scepticism of whether governments ‘unnecessarily pulled all but three where 34-year-old Jeff Bell upset to the President in the initial stages economics and political philosophy. between 1976 and 1980. It was now a could be trusted to solve every teeth of a thirteen-year-old girl a forty-year liberal veteran of the and the As Shirley points out, when battling more positive message of optimism problem. Certainly, it had become because he was compensated on a ‘courtly gentleman’ Clifford Case, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Bush for the Republican nomination and hope. Reagan’s message was not clear that Keynesian economics did per-extraction basis’. Then there demonstrating that ‘ideology was The fact that Carter survived it was ‘the Eureka College-educated only that the United States could be not have the answer to the nation’s was the case of taxpayers funding becoming more important in the the Kennedy challenge gave him movie star from humble origins, not improved—it was that all the world problems, as in the second quarter of the employment of college students Republican Party than experience’. renewed credibility in the eyes of the Yale-educated blue-blood, who could share in the American dream. 1979 the economy contracted by 2.4 to continually drive the cars of On the other hand, Shirley also both media and voters. was more well-read and thoughtful This is why there are statues of him per cent while annual inflation was congressional staff around Capitol notes a contemporary poll which For many in the Carter camp, on political and economic in Eastern Europe, and it is why 13 per cent. Hill because 3300 staff were entitled showed that, when it came to the the primaries were of more concern philosophy’. Shirley had earlier this book explaining his success is The media began to report to free parking, but there were only Presidential contest, sharing policy than the general election, as his described a debate between Reagan such a delight to read in the current on some of the failings of the 2465 spaces available. positions with a candidate was less people ‘could scarcely believe their and other leading conservatives benighted political world. R

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