Distinguishing the Reflective, Algorithmic, and Autonomous Minds: Is It Time for a Tri-Process Theory? Keith E
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Order Representations + a Rich Memetic Substrate
Language Needs A 2nd Order Representations + A Rich Memetic Substrate Joanna J. Bryson ([email protected]) Artificial models of natural Intelligence (AmonI) Group, University of Bath, England, UK Recent research has shown that human semantics can be 2nd-ord. soc. rep. no 2nd-ord reps replicated by surprisingly simple statistical algorithms for vocal imit. people birds memorizing the context in which words occur (McDonald no voc. imit. other primates most animals and Lowe, 1998; Landauer and Dumais, 1997). Assum- ing one accepts the point that semantics is the way that the word is used (which cannot be argued in one page, but see Figure 1: Human-like cultural evolution might require both Wittgenstein (1958) or Quine (1960), and which is the un- a rich memetic substrate as provided by vocal imitation, and derlying assumption of memetics) then why wouldn’t more the capacity for second order social representations. species have supported the evolution of this useful system of rapidly evolving cultural intelligence? Recent work in primatology tells us three relevant facts. might have evolved a sign language as rich as our vocal one. First, we know that apes and even monkeys do have cul- However, if I am correct, and the trick is that the richness of ture (de Waal and Johanowicz, 1993; Whiten et al., 1999). the substrate representing the strictly semantic, ungrounded That is, behavior is reliably and consistently transmitted be- cultural transmission is the key, then we now have an ex- tween individuals by non-genetic means. So we know that planation for why other primates don’t share our level of the question is not “why doesn’t animal culture exist”, but culture. -
The Reasoning Skills and Thinking Dispositions of Problem Gamblers: a Dual-Process Taxonomy
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making J. Behav. Dec. Making, 20: 103–124 (2007) Published online 22 September 2006 in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com) DOI: 10.1002/bdm.544 The Reasoning Skills and Thinking Dispositions of Problem Gamblers: A Dual-Process Taxonomy MAGGIE E. TOPLAK1*, ELEANOR LIU2, ROBYN MACPHERSON3, TONY TONEATTO2 and KEITH E. STANOVICH3 1York University, Canada 2Centre forAddiction and Mental Health,Toronto, Canada 3University of Toronto, Canada ABSTRACT We present a taxonomy that categorizes the types of cognitive failure that might result in persistent gambling. The taxonomy subsumes most previous theories of gambling behavior, and it defines three categories of cognitive difficulties that might lead to gambling problems: The autonomous set of systems (TASS) override failure, missing TASS output, and mindware problems. TASS refers to the autonomous set of systems in the brain (which are executed rapidly and without volition, are not under conscious control, and are not dependent on analytic system output). Mindware consists of rules, procedures, and strategies available for explicit retrieval. Seven of the eight tasks administered to pathological gamblers, gamblers with subclinical symptoms, and control participants were associated with problem gambling, and five of the eight were significant predictors in analyses that statistically controlled for age and cognitive competence. In a commonality analysis, an indicator from each of the three categories of cognitive difficulties explained significant unique variance in problem gambling, indicating that each of the categories had some degree of predictive specificity. Copyright # 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. key words dual-process theories; problem gambling; human reasoning; intuitive and analytic processing Pathological gambling is defined as ‘‘persistent and recurrent maladaptive gambling behavior that disrupts personal, family, and vocational pursuits’’ (DSM-IV-TR, American Psychiatric Association, 2000, p. -
Introduction ROBERT AUNGER a Number of Prominent Academics
CHAPTER 1: Introduction ROBERT AUNGER A number of prominent academics have recently argued that we are entering a period in which evolutionary theory is being applied to every conceivable domain of inquiry. Witness the development of fields such as evolutionary ecology (Krebs and Davies 1997), evolutionary economics (Nelson and Winter 1982), evolutionary psychology (Barkow et al. 1992), evolutionary linguistics (Pinker 1994) and literary theory (Carroll 1995), evolutionary epistemology (Callebaut and Pinxten 1987), evolutionary computational science (Koza 1992), evolutionary medicine (Nesse and Williams 1994) and psychiatry (McGuire and Troisi 1998) -- even evolutionary chemistry (Wilson and Czarnik 1997) and evolutionary physics (Smolin 1997). Such developments certainly suggest that Darwin’s legacy continues to grow. The new millennium can therefore be called the Age of Universal Darwinism (Dennett 1995; Cziko 1995). What unifies these approaches? Dan Dennett (1995) has argued that Darwin’s “dangerous idea” is an abstract algorithm, often called the “replicator dynamic.” This dynamic consists of repeated iterations of selection from among randomly mutating replicators. Replicators, in turn, are units of information with the ability to reproduce themselves using resources from some material substrate. Couched in these terms, the evolutionary process is obviously quite general. for example, the replicator dynamic, when played out on biological material such as DNA, is called natural selection. But Dennett suggests there are essentially no limits to the phenomena which can be treated using this algorithm, although there will be variation in the degree to which such treatment leads to productive insights. The primary hold-out from “evolutionarization,” it seems, is the social sciences. Twenty-five years have now passed since the biologist Richard Dawkins introduced the notion of a meme, or an idea that becomes commonly shared through social transmission, into the scholastic lexicon. -
1. a Dangerous Idea
About This Guide This guide is intended to assist in the use of the DVD Daniel Dennett, Darwin’s Dangerous Idea. The following pages provide an organizational schema for the DVD along with general notes for each section, key quotes from the DVD,and suggested discussion questions relevant to the section. The program is divided into seven parts, each clearly distinguished by a section title during the program. Contents Seven-Part DVD A Dangerous Idea. 3 Darwin’s Inversion . 4 Cranes: Getting Here from There . 8 Fruits of the Tree of Life . 11 Humans without Skyhooks . 13 Gradualism . 17 Memetic Revolution . 20 Articles by Daniel Dennett Could There Be a Darwinian Account of Human Creativity?. 25 From Typo to Thinko: When Evolution Graduated to Semantic Norms. 33 In Darwin’s Wake, Where Am I?. 41 2 Darwin's Dangerous Idea 1. A Dangerous Idea Dennett considers Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection the best single idea that anyone ever had.But it has also turned out to be a dangerous one. Science has accepted the theory as the most accurate explanation of the intricate design of living beings,but when it was first proposed,and again in recent times,the theory has met with a backlash from many people.What makes evolution so threatening,when theories in physics and chemistry seem so harmless? One problem with the introduction of Darwin’s great idea is that almost no one was prepared for such a revolutionary view of creation. Dennett gives an analogy between this inversion and Sweden’s change in driving direction: I’m going to imagine, would it be dangerous if tomorrow the people in Great Britain started driving on the right? It would be a really dangerous place to be because they’ve been driving on the left all these years…. -
Bias in Organisaties En Verandering
Bias in organisaties en verandering Introductie Volgens de psycholoog en Nobelprijswinnaar Economie Daniel Kahneman zijn er patronen te herkennen in denkfouten die mensen maken. Deze zijn vaak verbonden met intuïtieve vooringenomenheden, neigingen of biases. In dit artikel worden diagnostische termen aangereikt voor deze biases met betrekking tot de belangrijke processen van besluitvorming en samenwerking in organisaties en bij verandering. Titel : Bias in organisaties en verandering Auteurs : Steven ten Have en Cornell Vernooij Verschenen in : Holland Management Review (HMR 194, november-december 2020) Publicatiedatum : 14-12-2020 Tags : verandering Geselecteerd door : Cornell Vernooij ([email protected]) op 16-12-2020 Dit artikel/hoofdstuk is afkomstig uit Holland Management Review. Het auteursrecht is voorbehouden. De publicatie is bestemd voor eigen gebruik. Het is niet de bedoeling dit op commerciële basis verder te verspreiden. Neem in dat geval contact op met de uitgever, Mediawerf Uitgevers, www.mediawerf.nl. E-mailadres: [email protected]. 44 HOLLAND MANAGEMENT REVIEW SAIB JIB GARDEG NE SEITASINAGRO NI GNIREDNAREV NI SEITASINAGRO Steven ten Have, Cornell Vernooj, Maarten Hendriks, Wouter ten Have en Judith Stujt VERANDERING Het menseljk denken is niet louter rationeel; het wordt gekenmerkt door tal van biases of vertekeningen. Die beïnvloeden ook het denken over organisaties en veranderingsprocessen. Biases zjn echter niet aleen maar negatief. Het is zinvol om te begrjpen welke soorten biases zich bj medewerkers kunnen voordoen, en wat die vertekeningen kunnen betekenen voor verandering in een organisatie. Ondernemingen en instelingen worden verondersteld discussie. Kahneman legt de nadruk op stelselmatige vanuit hun purpose – hun economische of maatschap- fouten en veronderstelt herkenbare patronen in denk- peljke opdracht – doelgericht, doelmatig en doelbe- fouten die mensen maken. -
Meta-Effectiveness Excerpts from Cognitive Productivity: Using Knowledge to Become Profoundly Effective
Meta-effectiveness Excerpts from Cognitive Productivity: Using Knowledge to Become Profoundly Effective Luc P. Beaudoin, Ph.D. (Cognitive Science) Adjunct Professor of Education Adjunct Professor of Cognitive Science Simon Fraser University EDB 7505, 8888 University Drive Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6 Canada [email protected] Skype: LPB2ha http://sfu.ca/~lpb/ Last Revised: 2015–05–31 (See revision history) I recently wrote a blog post containing some importants concepts for understanding adult development of competence (including “learning to learn”). The overarching concept of that topic, and Cognitive Productivity, is meta-effectiveness, i.e., the abilities and dispositions (or “mindware”) to use knowledge to become more effective. Effectance is a component of meta-effectiveness. The concepts of meta-effectiveness and effectance being both subtle and important, I am publishing in this document a few excerpts from my book (Cognitive Productivity) to elucidate them. You will notice that I am critical of the position espoused by Dennett (e.g., in Inside Jokes) that the tendency to think is pleasure- seeking in disguise. Also, I’ve modernized White’s concept of effectance, aligning it with Sloman’s concept of architecture-based motivation. I have also updated David Perkins’ concept of mindware. Acknowledgements Footnotes Revision History 2015–05–31. First revision. Cognitive Productivity Using Knowledge to Become Profoundly Effective Luc P. Beaudoin This book is for sale at http://leanpub.com/cognitiveproductivity This version was published on 2015-04-12 This is a Leanpub book. Leanpub empowers authors and publishers with the Lean Publishing process. Lean Publishing is the act of publishing an in-progress ebook using lightweight tools and many iterations to get reader feedback, pivot until you have the right book and build traction once you do. -
Overcome Unconscious Bias
Overcoming Unconscious Bias: Breaking Down Barriers to Equity & Inclusion for School Board Members, Administrators, and Staff Tranquilino Hurtado Mora BOE President ww.Paper-Clip.com MBM Candidate Today’s Objectives: •Understand the effect of unconscious bias. • Help everyone feel welcomed, accepted and engaged. •Explore the various types of bias commonly experienced – participate in structured self- reflection and strategic discussion so you can help cultivate satisfaction and belonging within your local school board. ww.Paper-Clip.com Today’s Objectives: •Examine your institution’s systems, processes and individual dynamics – overcome barriers affected by unconscious bias so you can become more inclusive overall. •Strategize to move forward to overcome bias within processes, systems and individual interactions. ww.Paper-Clip.com Part 1 What is Unconscious Bias? ww.Paper-Clip.com Defining Bias •Bias is a prejudice in favor of or against one thing, person, or group compared with another usually in a way that’s considered to be unfair. Biases may be held by an individual, group, or institution and can have negative or positive consequences. ww.Paper -Clip.com (Source: UCSF Office of Diversity & Outreach, 2018) Conscious vs. Unconscious Bias • Conscious bias (also known as explicit bias) and • Unconscious bias (also known as implicit bias) • Biases are not limited to ethnicity and race. Though racial bias and discrimination is well documented, biases exist in other forms. (Source: UCSF Office of Diversity & Outreach, 2018) ww.Paper-Clip.com Defining Unconscious Bias • Unconscious bias: A social stereotype about certain groups of people that individuals form outside their own conscious awareness. • Everyone holds unconscious beliefs about various social and identity groups! (Source: UCSF Office of Diversity & Outreach, 2018) ww.Paper-Clip.com How does Unconscious Bias Affect Us? • Our Perception – how we see people and perceive reality. -
Cognitive Biases in Software Engineering: a Systematic Mapping Study
Cognitive Biases in Software Engineering: A Systematic Mapping Study Rahul Mohanani, Iflaah Salman, Burak Turhan, Member, IEEE, Pilar Rodriguez and Paul Ralph Abstract—One source of software project challenges and failures is the systematic errors introduced by human cognitive biases. Although extensively explored in cognitive psychology, investigations concerning cognitive biases have only recently gained popularity in software engineering research. This paper therefore systematically maps, aggregates and synthesizes the literature on cognitive biases in software engineering to generate a comprehensive body of knowledge, understand state of the art research and provide guidelines for future research and practise. Focusing on bias antecedents, effects and mitigation techniques, we identified 65 articles (published between 1990 and 2016), which investigate 37 cognitive biases. Despite strong and increasing interest, the results reveal a scarcity of research on mitigation techniques and poor theoretical foundations in understanding and interpreting cognitive biases. Although bias-related research has generated many new insights in the software engineering community, specific bias mitigation techniques are still needed for software professionals to overcome the deleterious effects of cognitive biases on their work. Index Terms—Antecedents of cognitive bias. cognitive bias. debiasing, effects of cognitive bias. software engineering, systematic mapping. 1 INTRODUCTION OGNITIVE biases are systematic deviations from op- knowledge. No analogous review of SE research exists. The timal reasoning [1], [2]. In other words, they are re- purpose of this study is therefore as follows: curring errors in thinking, or patterns of bad judgment Purpose: to review, summarize and synthesize the current observable in different people and contexts. A well-known state of software engineering research involving cognitive example is confirmation bias—the tendency to pay more at- biases. -
Behavioral Bias in Number Processing: Evidence from Analysts’ Expectations∗
Behavioral bias in number processing: Evidence from analysts' expectations∗ Patrick Rogery Tristan Rogerz Alain Schattx November 10, 2017 Abstract Research in neuropsychology shows that individuals process small and large num- bers differently. Small numbers are processed on a linear scale, while large numbers are processed on a logarithmic scale. In this paper, we show that financial analysts pro- cess small prices and large prices differently. When they are optimistic (pessimistic), analysts issue more optimistic (pessimistic) target prices for small price stocks than for large price stocks. Our results are robust when controlling for the usual risk factors such as size, book-to-market, momentum, profitability and investments. They are also robust when we control for firm and analyst characteristics, or for other biases such as the 52-week high bias, the preference for lottery-type stocks and positive skewness, and the analyst tendency to round numbers. Finally, we show that analysts become more optimistic after stock splits. Overall, our results suggest that a deeply-rooted behavioral bias in number processing drives analysts' return expectations. Keywords: Financial analysts, target prices, behavioral bias, number perception, stock price magnitude ∗This paper benefited from comments by Anthony Bellofatto, Eric de Bodt, Fran¸coisDerrien, Michel Dubois, Nicolas Eber, Jean-Fran¸coisGajewski, Amit Goyal, Patrick Hauf, Maria Chiara Iannino, Jens Jackwerth, Markku Kaustia, Catharina Klepsch, Maxime Merli, Pamela Moulton, Raghavendra Rau, H´el`ene -
Analytical Debiasing of Corporate Cash Flow Forecasts
European Journal of Operational Research 243 (2015) 1004–1015 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect European Journal of Operational Research journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ejor Interfaces with Other Disciplines Analytical debiasing of corporate cash flow forecasts Sebastian M. Blanc∗, Thomas Setzer Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Englerstraße 14, 76131 Karlsruhe, Germany article info abstract Article history: We propose and empirically test statistical approaches to debiasing judgmental corporate cash flow forecasts. Received 23 April 2014 Accuracy of cash flow forecasts plays a pivotal role in corporate planning as liquidity and foreign exchange risk Accepted 19 December 2014 management are based on such forecasts. Surprisingly, to our knowledge there is no previous empirical work Availableonline27December2014 on the identification, statistical correction, and interpretation of prediction biases in large enterprise financial Keywords: forecast data in general, and cash flow forecasting in particular. Employing a unique set of empirical forecasts Analytics delivered by 34 legal entities of a multinational corporation over a multi-year period, we compare different Judgmental forecasting forecast correction techniques such as Theil’s method and approaches employing robust regression, both with Forecast bias correction various discount factors. Our findings indicate that rectifiable mean as well as regression biases exist for all Cash flow forecasting business divisions of the company and that statistical correction increases forecast accuracy significantly. We show that the parameters estimated by the models for different business divisions can also be related to the characteristics of the business environment and provide valuable insights for corporate financial controllers to better understand, quantify, and feedback the biases to the forecasters aiming to systematically improve predictive accuracy over time. -
Keith Stanovich Curriculum Vitae
CURRICULUM VITAE PERSONAL INFORMATION: Name: Keith E. Stanovich Date of Birth: December 13, 1950 Marital Status: Married Address: Department of Human Development and Applied Psychology Ontario Institute for Studies in Education University of Toronto 252 Bloor Street West Toronto, Ontario Canada M5S 1V6 Phone: 503-297-3912 E-mail [email protected] EDUCATION: The Ohio State University, 1969-1973 - B.A., 1973 (Major - Psychology) The University of Michigan, 1973-1977 - M. A., Ph.D. (Major - Psychology) POSITIONS HELD: Professor, University of Toronto, 1991-present Department of Human Development and Applied Psychology Member, Centre for Applied Cognitive Science Program Head, Human Development and Education, 1996 - 2001 Department of Human Development and Applied Psychology Canada Research Chair of Applied Cognitive Science, 2002-2005 Professor of Psychology and Education, Oakland University, 1987-1991 Associate Professor of Psychology and Education, Oakland University 1985 - 1987 Associate Professor of Psychology, Oakland University 1982 - 1985 Assistant Professor of Psychology, Oakland University 1977 - 1982 Stanovich, Keith E. 1 AWARDS AND NATIONAL COMMITTEES: Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award, Society for the Scientific Study of Reading, July, 2000. Distinguished Researcher Award, Special Education Research SIG, American Educational Research Association, March, 2008 Oscar S. Causey Award, National Reading Conference, 1996 Silvia Scribner Award, Division C, American Educational Research Association, March, 1997 Elected, -
Thinking and Reasoning
Thinking and Reasoning Thinking and Reasoning ■ An introduction to the psychology of reason, judgment and decision making Ken Manktelow First published 2012 British Library Cataloguing in Publication by Psychology Press Data 27 Church Road, Hove, East Sussex BN3 2FA A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication by Psychology Press Data 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Manktelow, K. I., 1952– Thinking and reasoning : an introduction [www.psypress.com] to the psychology of reason, Psychology Press is an imprint of the Taylor & judgment and decision making / Ken Francis Group, an informa business Manktelow. p. cm. © 2012 Psychology Press Includes bibliographical references and Typeset in Century Old Style and Futura by index. Refi neCatch Ltd, Bungay, Suffolk 1. Reasoning (Psychology) Cover design by Andrew Ward 2. Thought and thinking. 3. Cognition. 4. Decision making. All rights reserved. No part of this book may I. Title. be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any BF442.M354 2012 form or by any electronic, mechanical, or 153.4'2--dc23 other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and 2011031284 recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing ISBN: 978-1-84169-740-6 (hbk) from the publishers. ISBN: 978-1-84169-741-3 (pbk) Trademark notice : Product or corporate ISBN: 978-0-203-11546-6 (ebk) names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used