Climat e I nf ormati on A vail abl e f or Disaster Risk Management
Australia Asia Brunei Darussalam Canada Chile Workshop on the Framework of Long-Term Capacity BuildingPeople’s Republic of China Pacific Hong Kong, China For Di sast er R ed ucti on in APEC Indonesia Economic CooperationChinese Taipei, 30 Nov – 1 Dec 2009 Japan Korea Malaysia Climate Mexico New Zealand Papua New Guinea Peru Philippines Center Russia Singapore Chinese Taipei Thailand United States APEC Climate Center Viet Nam
APEC Climate Center Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate
Energy
Water Resource Management
Food security Strong Wind Transpor t
Industry Intensity Coastal Marine Hazards Health
Troppyical Cyclones Urban areas
Exposure is increasing ! Heavy rainfall / Flood Hazard
Heatw av es
Need for Prevention and Mitigation Frequency Source: WMO
APEC Climate Center IPCC 4th Assessment Report
An increase of 10-20% in tropical cyclone itintens ities fiifor a rise in sea sur ftface temperat tf2ure of 2- 4 degrees in East Asia
Water demand for agggricultural irrigation would increase 6-10% or more for 1 degree rise in sea surface temperature in East Asia
Flood related damages increased by about eight times in the 1990s relative to those in the 1970s in AiAsia.
APEC Climate Center DRM Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015
Governance and Organizational Coordination
Risk Reduction Risk Identification (Prevention & Risk Transfer and Assessment Mitigation)
Historical hazard data, Sectoral planning Catastrophe insurance/ analysis and changing bond markets Early warning systems hazard trends Alternative risk transfer Emergency preparedness Exposed assets & & planning vulnerability Education and training Risk quantification
Information and Knowledge Sharing
APEC ClimateSource: Center WMO Climate Adaptation Input Needs
Climate Information Sectoral Information Historical Data on Variability and Change Technological options Climate Predictions Clima te Scenar ios Supply demand situations …..
Physical Information Geophysical information Social development scenarios..
Economic Information
Source: WMO
APEC Climate Center
Warnings and Lead Times
Short- to Medium-Range Seasonal Forecasts Long-Term Weather Short-Term Climate Climate
Emergency Sectoral Preparedness Preparedness plans aadnd R esposeesponse Uncertainty increases
Element Day-Week-Month-Year-Decade Weather, tides, floods, soils XXXX XXX Reservoi rs, snow pack XXXXXXXX People exposed, conflict, migration XXXXXX Crop production, food prices XXXXXX Food reserves, food aid XXXXXX Environmental management XXXXXXXX Industry, urban, infrastructure design XXXXXXX Land use planning XXXXXX Source: WMO
APEC Climate Center APCC 3-month MME Forecast for DJF 2009
Deterministic Probabilistic
PREC
T850
APEC Climate Center
Worst Case: 2008 OND
This slide shows the worst forecast case. For precipitation, South Asia including the maritime continent experienced more than normal rainfall at observation. But SCM predicted dry condition. In this case, we totally failed to predict precipitation over South Asia. For temperature, there was slightly La Nina event over central and eastern tropical Pacific at observation. However SCM predicted slightly warm temperature over the same area. Warm condition was shown over Eurasia continent at observation. However, SCM forecasted slightly below than normal temperature at the same region. APEC Climate Center Best Case: 2009 FMA
This slide shows the best forecast case. For precipitation, SCM totally hit over the maritime continent and SPCZ showing more than normal rainfall. For temperature, Slightly La Nina event was ob served over cent ral and east ern trop ica l Pac ific a t o bserva tion. SCM also predicted slightly below than normal conditions. Over northern hemisphere, especially Europe and Russia, observation shows positive temperature. SCM also forecasted slightly warm condition at the same region. AdditionallyAdditionally, SCM well predicted negative PNA pattern as compared with that of observation.
APEC Climate Center
Regional climate information provision
Observational data Reanalysis has filled big data gaps. Data homogeneity and metadata needs at regional scale.
Seasonal forecasting Seasonal forecasting is today an operational activity at many forecasting centers with low resolution. Probabilistic forecast is not easy to assimilate for users.
Deca da l Cli mat e P redi ct abilit y The evidence of observed variability on decadal timescales suggests decadal ppypredictability to exploit, but its extent remains to be more firml y established
Climate Change Projections Clima te mo de ls, the gl ob a l an d reg iona l ones a like, ex hibit bo th s kill an d systematic biases, which need to be assessed, recognized and accounted for when utilizing the information e.g. as input to impact studies or adaptation plans.
APEC Climate Center Warming trend and decadal variability Bush Bush Nixon Carter eagan Clinton Obama Human Forced R Low-pass Spatially Averaged Sea Surface Temperature on ”Well-Observed” Grid r a h h n n n e Bus Bus Nixo Natural Cart Clinto Obam Contribution due to Reaga the Global Multi - decadal Oscillation
Source: Prof . J . Shukla , George Mason Univ.
APEC Climate Center Global Climate Prediction Framework
APEC Climate Center Global Producing Centres
Global Users
Regional Climate Centres NMHSs
Regional Users National Sectoral Users National COFs Regional Climate Outlook Forums
APEC Climate Center Early Warning Systems NiNational to l ocal ldi disaster r ikdisk reduct ion p lans, leg iliislation an d coor diidination mec han isms are critical to ensure emergency planning and response involving 4 technical components
APEC ClimateSource: Center WMO Online Tool and Technology Support
http://clik.apcc21.net
* AFS : Automated Forecast System/ CMS : Climate Monitoring System/ DFT: Downscale Forecast Tool
APEC Climate Center Toward Climate Change Application
12-month Tier-1 Extreme Climate Statistical Climate Information MME System Prediction Downscaling Early Warning System • Comprehensive climate •In-house coupl ed dhidddatasets, hindcast data; models •AGCM Downscaling of WCRP TFSP data; • Atmosphere-ocean- • Intra-Seasonal long-range ~ 2010 Oscillation, typhoon simulation land data assimilation prediction and extttreme event • Climate-environmental • 6-month MME AR4 data forecast monitoring by satellite forecast data •High-resolution • Early warning system for • 12-month MME coupled system Downscaling of ~2012 climate change ENSO, IOD, floods, forecast • Extreme climate scenarios (()AR5) droughts, etc. prediction
~ 2025 • 1 year to decadal climate projection for ENSO, droughts, energy, water resources, etc. • Regional climate forecast with downscaling and high-resolution model • Tropical cyclone activity, ISO, extreme climate events, climate adaptation • IPCC, WMO climate change program
APEC Climate Center APEC Climate Symposium (June 2010)
Building adaptive capability to extreme climate events througgggh the networking among APEC Economies
Strives for development of best practices for extreme climate prediction in parallel with the development of a ppypyrototype early warnin gy,g system, in harmonization with other international and/or regional activities
Collaboration with TFEP - To organize a forum to bring disaster managers and climate information providers - To conduct a survey on the demands and requirements from the point of disaster management
APEC Climate Center Summary and Recommendation
Early access to warnings, short/medium forecats, clima te forecas ts and warni ngs (3 mon ths to longer lead-time) allows for improved medium and long- term strategic planning
Development of most reliable climate information and climate scenarios at national level in cooperation with climate community
Communication channels with official and credible sources oflif climate forecasts an d warn ings nee d to be established.
APEC Climate Center
www.apcc21.net
APEC Climate Center Thank You.
APEC Climate Center