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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly

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Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly After a break earlier this year, we are pleased to present Edition 21 of the Gresham Mining & Infrastructure Services Quarterly (GMISQ), a snapshot of the performance, news and trends across the resources (including oil & gas) and infrastructure services sectors. In this edition, we review the sector performance for the nine months ending 30 September 2018. Following a strong 2017, the Gresham Mining and Infrastructure Services Index (GMISI) has continued to advance in the year to date, increasing by c.7% relative to the broader market’s c.3% improvement. The increase was driven by the strong share price appreciation of a range of the mid-large size constituents, with Seven Group, WorleyParsons, ALS, Emeco and Service Stream all recording significant gains. However, there has been variability in market performance across the group, highlighted by more than half of the 50 companies recording share price falls. The most dramatic loss of value was seen by RCR Tomlinson, which recently undertook a deeply discounted entitlement offer following cost overruns at a major solar project. The FY18 reporting season was generally positive, with the majority of constituents achieving double digit revenue and EBITDA growth for the period. Analysts are forecasting similar growth over the next two financial years. The positive outlook is reflected in sector valuation multiples, which continue to be above the long term average. In this Edition’s Quarterly Focus, we recap on the improving conditions in the mining sector that are contributing to the performance of services companies. In particular, recent data illustrates that there has been increases in exploration spending as well as a number of new mining projects which will support order books across a range of businesses. Private M&A has been active during the year, with the most significant transaction being Ausdrill’s announced acquisition of hard-rock underground mining specialist Barminco at an enterprise value of c.$700m. The merger of SRG and GCS has been the only public deal announced to date in 2018. Editorial Team (1) The Gresham Mining and Infrastructure Services Index is a market capitalisation weighted index comprising 50 mining and infrastructure services companies selected by Gresham at the date of Chris Branston Tom Waddell David Burton this report. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Edition 21 Gresham Advisory Partners Ltd is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory 1 October 2018 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. Share Price Movements GMISI CONSTITUENTS1 LEADERS & LAGGARDS (SHARE PRICE)1 Leaders Laggers Ranks Market Cap (A$m) Share Company price Sep Dec 30 Sep 18 31 Dec 17 Δ % 1 1 CIMIC Group Ltd. (ASX:CIM) 16,654 16,683 -0% 2 3 Seven Group Holdings Ltd. (ASX:SVW) 7,675 4,845 48% 3 2 Orica Ltd. (ASX:ORI) 6,458 6,845 -6% 4 6 WorleyParsons Ltd. (ASX:WOR) 5,577 3,916 42% 5 4 Downer EDI Ltd. (ASX:DOW) 4,692 4,121 14% 6 7 ALS Ltd. (ASX:ALQ) 4,385 3,501 28% 7 5 Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:MIN) 2,984 3,964 -25% 8 9 Spotless Group Holdings Ltd. (ASX:SPO) 1,532 1,273 20% 9 8 Monadelphous Group Ltd. (ASX:MND) 1,513 1,633 -7% 10 12 Emeco Holdings Ltd. (ASX:EHL) 1,097 704 40% 11 10 Ausdrill Ltd. (ASX:ASL) 942 948 -30% 12 14 NRW Holdings Ltd. (ASX:NWH) 777 584 33% 13 16 Service Stream Ltd. (ASX:SSM) 650 488 35% 14 15 Macmahon Holdings Ltd. (ASX:MAH) 560 496 13% 15 11 Cardno Ltd. (ASX:CDD) 537 710 -21% PERFORMANCE RELATIVE TO S&P 200 INDICES1 16 18 Imdex Ltd. (ASX:IMD) 440 386 13% 17 17 MACA Ltd. (ASX:MLD) 326 451 -28% 18 26 SRG Global Ltd. (ASX:GCS) 308 192 -23% 19 23 Alliance Aviation Services Ltd. (ASX:AQZ) 307 225 36% 20 13 RCR Tomlinson Ltd. (ASX:RCR) 286 661 -65% 21 20 AJ Lucas Group Ltd. (ASX:AJL) 278 243 -9% 22 27 Pacific Energy Ltd. (ASX:PEA) 234 192 7% 23 29 Fleetwood Corp. Ltd. (ASX:FWD) 222 176 -16% 24 24 GR Engineering Services Ltd. (ASX:GNG) 216 221 -2% 25 21 MMA Offshore Ltd. (ASX:MRM) 210 240 -13% 26 28 Southern Cross Electrical Engineering Ltd. (ASX:SXE) 167 179 -8% 27 25 Lycopodium Ltd. (ASX:LYL) 167 195 -14% 28 19 Boart Longyear Ltd. (ASX:BLY) 158 263 -40% 29 36 Mastermyne Group Ltd. (ASX:MYE) 155 82 89% 30 22 Decmil Group Ltd. (ASX:DCG) 155 226 -41% 31 31 RPMGlobal Holdings Ltd. (ASX:RUL) 147 156 -7% 32 32 Austin Engineering Ltd. (ASX:ANG) 133 150 -12% 33 34 Watpac Ltd. (ASX:WTP) 126 122 3% PERFORMANCE OVER TIME 34 30 BSA Ltd. (ASX:BSA) 119 159 -25% 35 33 Boom Logistics Ltd. (ASX:BOL) 104 123 -15% 36 37 Mitchell Services Ltd. (ASX:MSV) 85 76 11% 37 39 Veris Ltd. (ASX:VRS) 76 59 17% 38 38 Veem Ltd. (ASX:VEE) 72 70 2% 39 n/a Primero Group Ltd. (ASX:PGX) 63 n/a n/a 40 40 Swick Mining Services Ltd. (ASX:SWK) 53 59 -10% 41 42 Tempo Australia Ltd. (ASX:TPP) 48 58 -17% 42 41 Saunders International Ltd. (ASX:SND) 44 59 -25% 43 44 Matrix Composites & Engineering Ltd. (ASX:MCE) 42 51 -18% 44 47 Valmec Ltd. (ASX:VMX) 33 21 2% 45 43 Neptune Marine Services Ltd. (ASX:NMS) 28 55 -49% 46 46 XRF Scientific Ltd. (ASX:XRF) 23 27 -15% 47 48 Laserbond Ltd. (ASX:LBL) 16 14 17% 48 49 Resource Development Group Ltd. (ASX:RDG) 15 11 35% 49 45 LogiCamms Ltd. (ASX:LCM) 14 29 -50% 50 50 VDM Group Ltd. (ASX:VMG) 12 5 100% Notes: (1) Performance measured over the period 31-Dec-17 to 30-Sep-18 (inclusive). Source: FactSet, IRESS. 2 2 FY2018 Results Summary FY2018 results were generally positive, with more than half of index constituents reporting double digit revenue and EBITDA growth. Balance sheets across the sector are relatively conservative. REVENUE GROWTH (FY17-18) EBITDA GROWTH (FY17-18) EBITDA MARGINS (FY18) NET DEBT / ENTERPRISE VALUE Large Cap (>$1bn) Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) Small Cap (<$200m) Notes: (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are included in charts. Source: FactSet. 3 3 Forecast Earning & Profitability Analysts are forecasting a continuation of recent growth over FY19-20, with nearly all companies expected to achieve increases in earnings over the next two years, driven by strong revenue growth as well as margin expansion. FORECAST REVENUE GROWTH (FY18-20F CAGR) FORECAST EBITDA GROWTH (FY18-20F CAGR) EBITDA MARGINS (FY19F) Large Cap (>$1bn) Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) Small Cap (<$200m) Notes: (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are included in charts. Source: FactSet. 4 4 Valuation Multiples While there has been some downward trending in sector valuation multiples in 2018 as analyst earnings expectations have been revised, multiples generally remain strong. The median GMISI constituent FY19 forecast P/E multiple of c.14x sits materially above the longer term forward median multiple of c.10x, and nearly all large cap companies have a PE of greater than 15x. 1 YEAR FORWARD PRICE EARNINGS RATIO OVER TIME PRICE EARNINGS RATIO (FY19F) DIVIDEND YIELD (FY19F) Large Cap (>$1bn) Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) Small Cap (<$200m) Notes: (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are included in charts; (2) Share prices are as at 30-Sep-18; (3) Earnings multiples are not calendarised; (4) Companies exhibiting negative multiples have been excluded from the above analysis. Source: FactSet. 5 5 Valuation Multiples (cont.) Market expectations regarding growth are also reflected in enterprise value multiples, with the median FY19 EBIT and EBITDA multiples being 10.9x and 6.7x respectively. Nearly all companies are trading substantially above net asset value. EV/EBIT (FY19F) EV/EBITDA (FY19F) PRICE/NTA Companies trading at a discount to NTA Large Cap (>$1bn) Mid Cap (between $200m and $1bn) Small Cap (<$200m) Notes: (1) Only companies with consensus earnings forecasts are included in charts; (2) Share prices are as at 30-Sep-18 (3) Earnings multiples are not calendarised; (4) Enterprise Value is based on market capitalisation plus minority interests and last reported net debt adjusted for capital raisings and acquisitions. (5) Companies exhibiting negative multiples have been excluded from the above analysis. Source: FactSet. 6 6 Contract Awards The second half of FY2018 saw a reasonable amount of contract activity. There was a long list of small to medium size awards to the ASX-listed companies as well as a number of much larger contract wins, including MACA’s recent $700 million life-of-mine contract with Chinese-owned Carabella Resources. MAJOR CONTRACT AWARDS Date Commodity/ Company Client Project/Facility Location Services Value (A$m) Announced Sector 28-Sep-18 CIMIC Group Victorian Government Metro Tunnel VIC Design and construction 400 Infra. Waikeria Corrections New Zealand 18-Sep-18 CIMIC Group and Treatment NZ Design and construction NZ$750 Infra. Government Facility PPP 17-Sep-18 CIMIC Group Antofagasta Minerals Encuentro Chile Mining services 420 Copper Construction, logistics and 13-Sep-18 Decmil Group QGC Various QLD 150 Gas maintenance 10-Sep-18 CIMIC Group BHP Nickel West Leinster WA Mining services 190 Nickel Underground mining 7-Sep-18 Ausdrill (Barminco) AngloGold Ashanti Sunrise Dam WA 700 Gold services Millmerran Power 5-Sep-18 Downer EDI Commodore QLD Mining services 286 Coal Partners Major Road Project 4-Sep-18 Decmil Group Drysdale Bypass VIC Design and construction 86 Infra.
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