COUNTRY VIEW EXTENSION 16
PROPOSED NEW FILLING STATION FOR
COUNTRY VIEW EXTENSION 16, GAUTENG PROVINCE
AUGUST 2015
Issue1 WSP PROJECT NO.: 20418 FEASIBILITY STUDY & IMPACT ON SURROUNDING SITES 20418
COUNTRY VIEW EXTENSION 16 Issue1
Issue/Revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3
Remarks Submitted to Client
Date August 2015
Prepared by Tom Hannay Consultant
Checked by Pieter Jooste Engineer
Signature
Authorised by Eddie Krause Pr Tech Eng
Signature
Project Number 20418
File Reference Z:\20000\20418 CPD Country View (Olifantsfontein) FS\11 - Reports\11.2 Feasibility Report\Feasibility Study
EDDIE KRAUSE Pr Tech Eng
E-mail Address: [email protected] Contact Number: 012 762 1200 FEASIBILITY STUDY & IMPACT ON SURROUNDING SITES 20418
COUNTRY VIEW EXTENSION 16 Issue1
Table of Contents Page No.
1 Background ...... 4
1.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 4 1.2 STUDY AREA...... 4 1.3 TRAFFIC GROWTH WITHIN THE STUDY AREA...... 5 1.4 FUTURE ROADS ...... 5 1.5 EVALUATION OF STUDY SITE ...... 6
2 Impact on Existing Sites ...... 7
2.1 COMPETITOR SITES ...... 7 2.2 CATCHMENT MARKETS ...... 7 2.3 COMPETITOR SITES INVESTIGATION ...... 7 2.3.1 ENGEN Noordwyk Convenience Centre ...... 7 2.3.2 ENGEN Country View ...... 8 2.3.3 SHELL Lever Road ...... 8 2.3.4 CALTEX Corporate Park ...... 8 2.3.5 CALTEX N1/New Road ...... 9 2.3.6 SHELL Ultra City N1 - Northbound ...... 9 2.3.7 SHELL Ultra City N1 - Southbound...... 9 2.3.8 SASOL Blue Hills ...... 10 2.4 IMPACT ON EXISTING SITES ...... 10 2.5 CONCLUSION ON COMPETITOR STATIONS ...... 12
3 Estimated Sales of Proposed Site ...... 13
3.1 TRAFFIC DEMAND (ADT) ...... 13 3.2 AVERAGE FILL (F) ...... 14 3.3 INTERCEPTION RATES (P ) ...... 14 3.4 FULL TRADING DAYS IN A MONTH (D) ...... 16 3.5 EXPECTED MONTHLY SALES ...... 16
4 Feasibility of Proposed Site ...... 18
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5 Other Traffic Engineering Considerations ...... 20
5.1 IMPACT ON TRAFFIC FLOW PAST THE SITE (SAFETY) ...... 20 5.1.1 During the Construction Phase ...... 20 5.1.2 During the Operational Phase ...... 20 5.2 DELIVERY VEHICLE PATH ...... 21
6 Conclusion ...... 22
Tables
Table 1 : Expected Shared Traffic ...... 11 Table 2 : Loss of Sales ...... 12 Table 3: Expected Interception Rates ...... 15 Table 4 : Estimated Fuel Sales per Month ...... 17 Table 5 : Typical Costs of a New Filling Station...... 18
Figures
Figure 1 : Locality Plan Figure 2 : Competitor Sites
Annexures
Annexure A: Photos Annexure B: Future Developments Map (JHB North) Annexure C: Proposed Access Layout Annexure D: Traffic Count
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1 Background
1.1 INTRODUCTION
WSP l Parsons Brinckerhoff (WSP) was appointed to investigate a site for the development of a filling station. A study was launched into opening and operating a filling station on a property located alongside Olifantsfontein Road, and which will form part of the Country View Extension 16 Township in Midrand, Gauteng Province.
This evaluation is for a modern filling station with a canopy covered forecourt, a number of pumps selling petrol and diesel fuels and a modern ±200m² convenience store, all on a site that has enough space to accommodate such a development.
The purpose of the study is to determine if the proposed site is feasible for opening and operating a modern, benchmark filling station. The study considers the development viability by assessing the impact on competitor stations and the projected volume of fuel to be sold.
1.2 STUDY AREA
The location of the site is indicated on the locality map in Figure 1, with photographs of the site shown in Annexure A (all figures and annexures can be found at the back of the report). The proposed site is situated adjacent to Olifantsfontein Road and a mere 450m west of the N1 / Olifantsfontein Road interchange. The site is located on an undeveloped piece of land to the north of Olifantsfontein Road and bounded by the N1 freeway to the east and Lever Road to the west.
Olifantsfontein Road is part of a 25km east-west road link that stretches from Diepsloot to the far west, running eastwards through Midrand, crossing the N1 freeway and running on the northern boundary of Tembisa where it terminates at its interchange with the R21 freeway.
To the west of the N1 freeway, the surrounding area is predominantly residential consisting of individual upmarket homes and dense townhouse complexes in the well-developed suburbs of Noordwyk and Country View. A number of large commercial businesses such as Vodaworld, Siemens, MTN and the Protea Midrand Hotel are also situated to the west of the freeway, but further to the south. On the eastern side of the N1, Olifantsfontein Road passes through a broad strip of light industrial factories and warehouses before it runs through the agricultural holdings of Glen Austin and the township of Tembisa.
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1.3 TRAFFIC GROWTH WITHIN THE STUDY AREA
Precise traffic growth patterns were not analysed nor calculated in depth for this report. Typical growth rates are recommended by the Committee of Transport Officials (COTO)1 when inadequate information is available to calculated traffic growth rates.
The study site is located between two of the country’s major commercial centres, Johannesburg and Pretoria, and has long been a region of extreme and rapid development, with the two cities now almost joined. A vast number of future developments are planned within 10km from the proposed site to the west, as indicated on the future developments map attached as Annexure B. A number of future developments are also planned to the east of the N1, including the mega provincial project Clayville Extensions 45, 50 and 71.
Based on the above, a 4% annual traffic growth rate was assumed over the next 3 years for the study area. This growth rate is seen as a conservative estimate.
1.4 FUTURE ROADS
The future PWV5 freeway is planned immediately to the north of the proposed site. The PWV5 will be an east-west freeway running through the Midrand area, forming an interchange with the N1 just to the east of the site. The current N1 / Olifantsfontein Road interchange will then be closed. Although this road is not expected to be constructed in the near future, once implemented, it will indeed have an effect on the traffic flow along Olifantsfontein Road past the subject site. Olifantsfontein Road will however still form part of a major east-west road in the region.
This future road planning will however not affect the access to the site which is proposed directly off Olifantsfontein Road (refer to the proposed access layout drawing attached as Annexure C).
1 TMH 17 Volume 1, South African Trip Data Manual, Version 1.0, Committee of Transport Officials (COTO), September 2012.
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1.5 EVALUATION OF STUDY SITE
The study site was investigated in June 2015. A qualitative assessment was made and the site was ranked according to the following scale:
Very Poor Poor Average Good Very Good
n Visibility: The site is located alongside a straight section of Olifantsfontein Road. With no natural obstructions or developments potentially impairing the visibility, it is clearly visible to passing traffic. The visibility can thus be described as VERY GOOD;
n Access: The proposed access layout drawing is attached as Annexure C. The site will only be accessible to eastbound traffic traveling along Olifantsfontein Road in the form of a left-in-left-out access. Although the site will only be accessible to eastbound traffic, direct and easy access will be provided. This access is considered GOOD;
n Trading Market: The trading market is described as GOOD. The site is positioned to serve the transit market along Olifantsfontein Road;
n Competitor Stations: There are no direct competitor filling stations exclusively serving the eastbound transit traffic along Olifantsfontein Road. There are however a number of existing filling stations within the 3km radius of local market influence, as well as some other filling stations that will possibly share a portion of the same traffic stream with a filling station operating on the proposed site. Most of these existing stations are modern facilities with a number of amenities. The study site is thus rated AVERAGE in terms of opposition filling stations;
n Traffic Volumes: The traffic survey indicated that the subject site is currently exposed to high volumes of traffic. Exposure to traffic can thus be described as VERY GOOD.
Considering the criteria discussed above, it can be concluded that the study site has a GOOD to VERY GOOD trading potential.
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2 Impact on Existing Sites
2.1 COMPETITOR SITES
To determine the impact on surrounding filling stations in an urban/suburban environment, it is typical to look at all existing filling stations within a 3km radius. For new filling stations proposed alongside arterial routes, all existing stations which will share the same catchment markets are also considered. This guideline is used by various departments, major fuel companies and agencies.
The subject site will be positioned to serve transit traffic travelling along Olifantsfontein Road. A number of existing filling stations exist within the site’s 3km radius of influence, as well as some stations which are situated outside this radius, but which will possibly share the same catchment markets. Eight (8) filling stations have been deemed relevant for this study. Figure 2 depicts these competitor filling stations in relation to the proposed site as well as the applicable catchment markets. A photograph of each one of the competitor sites is also attached as Annexure A.
2.2 CATCHMENT MARKETS
Physical man-made barriers (such as freeways, railway lines, airports) or natural barriers (such as mountains, rivers and dams) create different markets for a site. For this study, types of commuters (local or transit) were used to divide the study area into the following existing market/markets to be served by the proposed filling station:
n A: The transit market along Olifantsfontein Road.
2.3 COMPETITOR SITES INVESTIGATION
2.3.1 ENGEN Noordwyk Convenience Centre
ENGEN Noordwyk is the closest competitor site and is situated on the corner of Lever and Coubrough Road (approximately 0.9km by road from the proposed site – with GPS coordinates S25o57’08.54 and E28o07’24.37). The site is located next to the Noordwyk Convenience Centre. Direct access to the site is provided for southbound traffic along Lever Road. A second full access to the site is also provided off Coubrough Road, which can be accessed by northbound traffic along Lever Road.
The following markets are served by this filling station:
n The surrounding local market of Noordwyk;
n Lever Road transit market; and
n Olifantsfontein Road transit market (to a lesser extent).
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The station offers a branded convenience store with some other smaller amenities. It has a four-island tollgate forecourt accommodating four 4-nozzle pumps and was very busy when visited. High average fill rates were recorded when visited and the station is expected to have high monthly fuel sales.
2.3.2 ENGEN Country View
This ENGEN is the second closest competitor station and is located on the corner of Lever Road and Azalea Avenue in Country View (approximately 1.0km by road from the proposed site – with GPS coordinates S25o56’50.82 and E28o07’31.17). It is directly accessible off Lever Road as well as Azalea Avenue.
The following markets are served by this filling station:
n The surrounding local market of Country View;
n Lever Road transit market; and
n Olifantsfontein Road transit market (to a lesser extent).
This station is a slightly non-contemporary site with a small shop, an ATM and a three-island tollgate forecourt with three 6-nozzle pumps. It was fairly quiet when visited and relatively low fill rates were recorded. However, due to its location and facility being clean and tidy, moderate monthly fuel sale are expected for this site.
2.3.3 SHELL Lever Road
SHELL Lever Road is situated on the corner of Lever and Kiaat Street in Noordwyk (approximately 1.6km by road from the proposed site – with GPS coordinates S25o57’31.83 and E28o07’20.31). Direct access to the site is provided for northbound traffic along Lever Road. A second full access to the site is also provided off Kiaat Street, which can be accessed by southbound traffic along Lever Road.
The following markets are served by this filling station:
n The surrounding local market of Noordwyk; and
n Lever Road transit market.
This site has a large open forecourt with four tollgate islands and four 8-nozzle pumps. It also offers a branded convenience store with some smaller amenities. High average fill rates were recorded when visited and the station is expected to have high monthly fuel sales.
2.3.4 CALTEX Corporate Park
This site is located on the western side of the Old Pretoria Road (R101) to the east of the N1 freeway (approximately 1.9km by road from the proposed site – with GPS coordinates S25o56’57.99 and E28o08’29.25). This station is only accessible to traffic traveling north along Old Pretoria Road.
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The following market is served by this filling station:
n The transit market along Old Pretoria Road.
It has a four-island tollgate forecourt with four 8-nozzle pumps and one single-nozzle remote pump. The station also offers a branded convenience store as well as a carwash. High average fill rates were recorded when visited and moderate to high monthly fuel sales is expected for this station.
2.3.5 CALTEX N1/New Road
This Caltex is located on the New Road bridge crossing the N1 (approximately 3.7km by road from the proposed site – with GPS coordinates S25o58’50.13 and E28o07’34.29).It is accessible to both northbound and southbound N1 traffic flow.
The following market is served by this filling station:
n The transit market along the N1 freeway.
It has full service and rest area facilities, including a branded convenience shop and a Jozi Diner restaurant spanning and overlooking the freeway. Two very large separate forecourts are available on both sides of the freeway. Each forecourt is equipped with eight islands in a squared-layout with eight 8-nozzle pumps. High average fill rates were surveyed during the site visit and very high monthly fuel sales is expected at this filling station.
2.3.6 SHELL Ultra City N1 - Northbound
Shell N1 Ultra City falls outside the 3km radius of influence, but will possibly share a sizable portion of the same traffic stream with the proposed site. It is located on the western side of the N1 freeway (approximately 4.0km by road from the proposed site – with GPS coordinates S25o55’35.66 and E28o08’43.15) and is directly accessible to northbound traffic on the N1.
The following market is served by this filling station:
n The transit market along the N1 freeway (northbound only).
It has a ten-island tollgate forecourt with eight 8-nozzle pumps and four duo-nozzle pumps. It also offers full service and rest area facilities, including a branded convenience shop and a popular fast food restaurant. Very high average fill rates have been recorded and very high month fuel sales are expected at this station.
2.3.7 SHELL Ultra City N1 - Southbound
This site is located opposite the N1 freeway from the previously mentioned Ultra City station and is an exact replica of the northbound serving station, but only serving the southbound traffic. Very high month fuel sales are also expected at this station.
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2.3.8 SASOL Blue Hills
Sasol Blue Hills also falls outside the 3km radius of influence, but will possibly share a noticeable portion of the same traffic stream with the proposed site. It is situated on the eastern side of the R55 in Blue Hills (approximately 4km by road from the proposed site – with GPS coordinates S25o56’19.50 and E28o05’46.11), just north of the intersection between the R55 and Summit Rd. Access is gained directly off the R55, but only for southbound traffic due to a raised median.
The following market is served by this filling station:
n R55 transit traffic (southbound only).
This is a modern station offering a branded convenience store, a bakery and other smaller amenities. It is also equipped with four 4-nozzle fuel pumps in a tollgate layout, as well as a remote fuel pump. The site was busy when visited and high monthly fuel sales are expected for this filling station.
2.4 IMPACT ON EXISTING SITES
Little knowledge is available on how drivers make their decision at which filling station to fill up, but it is believed to be influenced by the same factors determining the turn-in percentage (interception rate) to be discussed in Section 3.3. Other agencies, such as the Department of Energy, only consider road users’ access to a filling station and not all the factors influencing the interception rate.
Some research2 indicates several factors that influence the moving market between competing filling stations (i.e. when a site gains customers from other existing stations). Different petrol brands play a very small role in consumer motivations. The price of the convenience store goods plays a limited role in re- patronage. Aesthetic factors, impact on re-patronage and total customer experience (i.e. the interception rate factors mentioned previously) lead people to become more frequent patrons of a filling station. In short, it is the station that delivers the best overall experience and service to customers that outperforms competitors.
The assessment of the impact the proposed filling station will have on the competitor filling stations in the area was mainly based on the shared traffic streams, but all other factors discussed have also been considered.
The amount of traffic shared between the study site and existing sites mainly depend on the following:
n The distance between the sites;
n The number of lanes of the roads passing each site;
n Road alignment;
n Number of intersections between the sites; and
n Developments between the sites which can generate and attract traffic.
2 M.M. Molefe. 2006. Consumer Motivations in Forecourt Convenience Retail in South Africa. University of Pretoria
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Shared traffic can more accurately be calculated by conducting traffic counts at intersections closest to competitor stations and other intersections where traffic can be diverted. In lieu of such information, a percentage of shared traffic is assumed based on WSP’s experience with conducting feasibility studies and knowledge regarding traffic movement in the study area.
An estimation of the shared traffic between the study site and the existing competitor stations is summarised in Table 1.
Table 1 : Expected Shared Traffic
TRAFFIC PERCENTAGE POTENTIAL GENERAL COMMENTS SHARED WITH OF TOTAL PASS-BY SITE FILLING STATION NEW FILLING TRAFFIC (Considered for Moving TRAFFIC [ADT] STATION [ADT] SHARED [%] Market Factor)
Modern station with a number of amenities. Direct access ENGEN Noordwyk for Lever Road southbound 1 20 000 8 000 40% Centre traffic, but no direct access for Lever Road northbound traffic.
Relatively old station. Direct 2 ENGEN Country View 15 000 6 000 40% access off Lever Road
Modern station with a number of amenities. Direct access for Lever Road northbound 3 SHELL Lever Road 20 000 6 000 30% traffic, but very poor access for Lever Road southbound traffic.
Modern station with a number CALTEX Corporate of amenities. Only accessible 4 21 000 3 150 15% Park to Old Pretoria Road northbound traffic.
Relatively modern station, but CALTEX N1/New with many of amenities. 5 75 000 12 000 15% Road Accessible to N1 traffic in both directions.
Very modern station with SHELL Ultra City N1 - many amenities. Accessible 6 75 000 4 000 5% NB only to traffic traveling north along the N1 freeway.
Very modern station with SHELL Ultra City N1 - many amenities. Accessible 7 75 000 4 000 5% SB only to traffic traveling south along the N1 freeway.
Modern station with a number 8 SASOL Blue Hills 24 000 4 000 15% of amenities. Only accessible to R55 southbound traffic.
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Note that the traffic shared between existing stations and the study site does not imply the same or proportional decrease in fuel sales. Passing road users are more likely to purchase fuel or turn into a filling station based on the factors discussed in Section 2.3. A summary of the potential loss in fuel sales is indicated in Table 2.
Table 2 : Loss of Sales
PRESENT ESTIMATE (PRESENT FUEL ESTIMATED MOVING DECREASE IN 3 YEAR FUTURE SALES) – (SALE FUEL SALE MARKET SALES IF SITE SALES AFTER FILLING STATION DECREASE) POTENTIAL FACTOR [%] IS DEVELOPED IMPACT [LPM] [LPM] [LPM] [LPM]
ENGEN Noordwyk 1 400 000 10% 40 000 360 000 > 400 000 Centre
ENGEN Country 2 300 000 20% 60 000 240 000 270 000 View
3 SHELL Lever Road 500 000 15% 75 000 425 000 475 000
CALTEX Corporate 4 350 000 8% 28 000 322 000 > 350 000 Park
CALTEX N1/New 5 > 1 000 0000 5% 50 000 > 1000 000 > 1000 000 Road
SHELL Ultra City 6 > 1 000 0000 2.5% 25 000 > 1000 000 > 1000 000 N1 - NB
SHELL Ultra City 7 > 1 000 0000 0% 0 > 1000 000 > 1000 000 N1 - SB
8 SASOL Blue Hills 500 000 7.5% 37 500 462 500 > 500 000
TOTAL ± 315 500
2.5 CONCLUSION ON COMPETITOR STATIONS
It is expected that the ENGEN filling station located on the corner of Lever Road and Azalea Avenue in Country View will be the only existing filling station to experience any major impact on fuel sales. This is mainly due to its outdated appearance and lack of modern amenities that a benchmark station will provide. This ENGEN station will have to improve its quality and offering to stay competitive.
Other stations in the region do not share significant portions of the same traffic stream/streams with the proposed station, or has monthly fuel sale volumes high enough which can accommodate a sacrifice in sales without majorly jeopardising the business. It is thus expected that a new fillings station operating on the subject site will not irreparably jeopardise the business of these existing stations.
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3 Estimated Sales of Proposed Site
The following empiric formula is used by the fuel industry to calculate the expected average litres of fuel to be sold in a month: