Journal of Science and Sustainable Development (JSSD), 2014, 1(3) 31-41 Copyright © Ambo University ISSN: 2304-2702 (print); 2414-4479 (online) DOI: https://doi.org/10.20372/au.jssd.2.1.2014.024 Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies in Dendi District,

M . Karthikeyan and Moges Tadesse

Department of Cooperatives, Institute of Cooperatives and development Studies, Ambo University, Ambo, Ethiopia, E-mail: [email protected], [email protected]

Abstract

As climate change affects Ethiopia’s agriculture and highly disrupting people’s livelihood, it is high time to study “the effect of climate change on crop production and adaptation strategies in Dendi District”. The study was made on two Cooperatives (Bodda and Welenkomi) from which 200 respondents were selected using simple random sampling technique. Field survey and PRA methods were adopted to collect primary data. Secondary data were collected from the documents of cooperatives and offices concerned. The effect of climate change on crop production was analyzed using Generalized Linear-univariate model. Climate change adaptation strategies were analyzed qualitatively with the help of descriptive statistics. The study showed that solar intensity, disease, flood, temperature, rainfall and landslide were found to be statistically significant to have an adverse effect on crop production. The results from descriptive statistics revealed that farmers’ level of awareness of on climate change is low. 96.5% of farmers did not adapt key strategies. The support from disaster department and agricultural cooperatives are not significant. To design appropriate measures and curb the adverse effect of statistically significant climate variables, concerted effort of all stakeholders is of paramount importance. As agricultural Cooperatives are the major stakeholder, they must take measures for increasing farmers’ awareness on climate change adaptation. Strengthening vertical and horizontal linkage among stakeholders is vital. Besides, early warning systems should be in place and intensive training on climate change adaptation strategies is advocated to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change and to bring a positive change on members’ livelihood.

Keywords: Adaptation strategies, crop production, effect, climate change

Introduction substantially raised emissions of so called “greenhouse gases” in the industrialized part of the world. Climate change has become a catch phrase in the global and regional Climate change has an effect on forums. Climate change refers to rainfall patterns, increased flooding/ significant changes in mean values or droughts, increased water significant changes in the degree of stress/scarcity, decreased flows in variability itself. It is the effect of rivers, increased heat stress due to rise rapid global warming caused by M. Karthikeyan and Moges Tadesse [32]

in temperature, changes in ecology affected by climate change (BoFED and habitats of plants and animals, 2008; MoFED 2000). increased storms. Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climate variability and change, whether due Statement of the to natural causes or human activities. Problem These impacts will vary with the degree of warming and associated Agriculture in Ethiopia is the most changes in rainfall patterns, and from vulnerable sector to the impacts of one location to another. Climate climate change (Slingo et al., 2005) due change influences crop production to the fact that the sector is dominated directly by reducing crop yields. by small-scale mixed crop-livestock Climate change has the potential to production with very low exacerbate the stresses on crop plants, productivity. The major factors potentially leading to catastrophic responsible for low production yield reductions. Climate change also include; large arable land located in indirectly affects crop production arid and semi arid regions, rainfed through its influence on emergence agriculture or low irrigation water and distribution of crop pests use, reliance on traditional farming exacerbating the frequency and system or techniques, soil degradation distribution of adverse weather caused by overgrazing and conditions, reducing water supplies deforestation, low capacity to adapt, and irrigation; and enhancing severity and poor complementary services. of soil erosion (Winter et al.,1998; These factors also reduced the IPCC, 2007; Sebeta, 2009; adaptive capacity of farmers to future Craufurd ., Wheeler, 2009 ). changes in climate patterns.

Agricultural produce is one of the It is doubtful whether farmers know most important developing countries immediately what constitutes the best export commodities, and agricultural response to adverse effect of climate producers are small-scale farmers change. Nor can they be expected to faced with a number of problems. recognize immediately that the Climate change has affected Ethiopia’s climate has changed. This would agriculture, water resources, result in latent losses of benefits from biodiversity and ecosystems, which agriculture as a result of not taking will highly disrupt the livelihood of immediate action in adapting to the people. Several studies were climate changes. Therefore, undertaken over the past few years adaptation to climate change involves showing that Ethiopia will be severely strategies put in place to deliver adaptations by taking adaptive

Journal of Science and Sustainable Development (JSSD), 2014, 1(3) 31-41

Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies [33] actions or building adaptive capacity local academics and professional against climate risks (Mendelsohn & forums have barely addressed it. Dinar., 1999; Benhin, J.K.A., 2008;). The purpose of adaptive action is Objectives either to manage (avoid, prevent, The overall objective of the study is to reduce, transfer or absorb) climate analyse the effect of climate change on risks or to exploit beneficial crop production in Dendi District. opportunities created by climate This study also tries to specifically change (Robert Kurukulasuriya., identify climate change adaptation Mendelsohn, 2008). It is very pertinent strategies on crop production by to assess the importance of adaptive members of agricultural cooperatives; strategies. and to assess supports provided by “Concern for Community” is one of cooperatives, government and non- the cooperative principles. It is, governmental organizations in therefore, natural to expect that they adaptation to climate change for should encourage proactive stance on increased crop production in the the environment protection, adapt proposed study area. As a result, this climate change and take interest in its research has tried to answer the conservation and protection for the following research questions: larger interest of the community. 1. How do farmers perceive the effect of climate change on crop Agricultural cooperatives, besides production? strengthening the bargaining power of 2. What kinds of adaptations smallholder farmers, they play strategies do farmers practice to prominent role in reducing climate change? production risks through providing its 3. What, if any, do cooperatives and members with advises on how to government and non-governmental adapt adverse effect of climate change organizations support farmers in on agricultural production. With this adaptation to climate change? background, it is unique to have an attempt to study the effect of climate change on crop production and Research Methodology adaptation strategies in Dendi District. The effect of climate change Description of Study Area on agriculture, on the ecosystems, on Dendi is one of the 180 woredas in the water bodies, and on health is very Region of Ethiopia. Part of the sensitive. While a wide body of Mirab Shewa Zone, Dendi is bordered literature has flourished addressing on the south by the Debub Mirab the process and anticipated adverse (Southwest) Shewa Zone, on the west effects of climate change on crop by Ambo, on the north by , and production in several countries of the on the east by . The world, the issue has neither been administrative centre of this woreda is researched nor tabled for a wider Ginchi; other towns in Dendi include public attention in Ethiopia. Even M. Karthikeyan and Moges Tadesse [34]

Ehud Gebeya, and Olonkomi. da), accessed on 3.1.2011) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendi_(wore

Figure 1. Map of the study Area

The highest point in this woreda is from February to March with a mean Mount Dendi (3260 meters). Notable annual rainfall of c. 1000 mm, with landscape features include the annual variations from 700 mm to Chilimo forest, a wooded area 2400 1600 mm. In the classic agro-climatic hectares in size near Ginchi, which is a zones of Ethiopia, the area falls into remnant of the dry afromontane forest the upper weyna dega and the dega on the Ethiopian Central Plateau. It is zone. Monthly mean temperatures are characterized by high altitude, between 15°C and 19°C. The lower ranging from 2,400-3,054 masl. area (Rare), below the main road in Rainfall pattern is bimodal with the Welenkomi, is the warmest, while the main rainy season from June to Dega Egu area is colder and wetter. September and short rainy season Normally, 70% of total annual rainfall

Journal of Science and Sustainable Development (JSSD), 2014, 1(3) 31-41

Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies [35] falls between June and September; Samuel Lemma, 2004). One among the March/April is the small rains season. reasons for this is the effect of climate Despite the relatively good climatic change. Based on the criterion that the conditions, irregularity in the timing area under operation is most affected and amounts of rainfall can reduce by climate change as justification, two substantially the agricultural Multipurpose Agricultural Cooperat- production, even if the area has been ive Societies namely Boda and spared from serious drought and Olomcomy in Dendi District were famines. Soils in the area differ in selected purposively. 200 respondents quality, with the richest and less were selected both from Bodda and acidic soils being found on the lower Welenkomi primary agricultural plateau (dark grey soils, vertisols, cooperatives to collect primary data koticha) (Alex Baudouin, 2007). On- using simple random sampling farm activities are the main economic technique. activities in the district with very little number of farmers working in off- farm activities. Source of cash income Method of Data in the area includes sales of crops such as barley, wheat, live animals, animal Collection products and potato. Land under little vegetative cover is subject to high Primary data were collected from surface runoff and has low water three different sources namely, from retention. Runoff causes sheet erosion the farmer members (200), Key to intensify and rills and gullies to Informants (5) and from Focus group widen and deepen. On the steep participants (2 full groups comprised slopes of the study area the soils are of 15 each). Appropriate tools such as, shallow and exposed to erosion. interview schedule for the member respondents, checklist for the Key Sampling design Informants and Focus Group Discussion were used to gather Since the research intended to study primary data regarding climate adaptation strategies to climate change effect, and adaptation change, field survey method was strategies. Secondary data were adopted. Crop production in Dendi collected from the records and district is affected by climate change documents of the cooperatives and in terms of rainfall, flood, drought, offices concerned. Data were collected and soil erosion, which is a crucial by the enumerators who undergo problem at present (WSZPB, 2012). training and orientation before data The crop production shows a decline collection with the supervision of the between 1971 and 2000/2001. Yields investigators. have not been increasing to compensate for the reduction in area cultivated per capita and the smaller farm sizes (Mesfin W.M., 1971; Kibret, M. Karthikeyan and Moges Tadesse [36]

Method of Data Analysis assumption is violated. Thus, the equal error variance assumption is

accepted. The data were analyzed by using both qualitative and quantitative approach. The effect of climate change on crop Univariate-ANOVA production was analyzed using GLM- The partial Eta Squared shows that univariate model. Climate change there is no significant variation adaptation strategies by members of accounted for by the model. Each term agricultural cooperatives were in the model, plus the model as a analyzed qualitatively with the help of whole, is tested for its ability to descriptive statistics. account for variation in the dependent variable. The significance value for Model Specification explanatory variables SOLI, DSEFCPRO and FDEFCPRO is statistically significant at P=5% while the variables such as TPEFCPRO, RFEFCPRO and LSEFCPRO are statistically significant at 10% level of Where, significance. The Eta squared statistic Y= the response variable reports the practical significance of Xi= the ith explanatory variable each independent variable (fixed Bi= the parameter of the ith factor). Larger value of Partial Eta explanatory variable Squared indicates a greater amount of e= error term or residuals variation accounted for by the model terms, to a maximum of 1. But, here Results and Discussion the individual variables while statistically significant do not have Effect of Climate Change on Crop great effect on the value of the Production dependent variable since the value of Eta is so small. Levene's Test of Equality of Error Variances Lack of fit tests Levene’s Tests of equality of error In order to check whether the variances was used to test the null relationship between the dependent hypothesis that the error variance of variable and the explanatory variables the dependent variable is equal across are adequately described by the groups. Since the significance value of model or not, lack of fit tests was the (F-test at df1=55, df2=141), 0.223, used. Accordingly, the null hypothesis is greater than 0.15, there is no reason that the model does not describe the to believe that the equal variances relationship between the dependent

Journal of Science and Sustainable Development (JSSD), 2014, 1(3) 31-41

Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies [37] and the explanatory variables relationship adequately is rejected on adequately [Fcal >Ftab] was tested. the basis that the F-test P-value=0.154 The result indicates that since is greater than 0.05 level of [Fcal,45=df=1.26]<[Ftab,45=df=1.64]. significance; and the alternative The null hypothesis which states that hypothesis is accepted qualifying that the model does not describe the the model fits into the data.

GLM Univariate Analysis

Table 1: GLM-Univariate Analysis of the Effect of cc variables on crop production

Partial 95% Confidence Interval Eta Squared Parameter B Std. Error t Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound Intercept 25.658 3.318 7.733 .000 19.112 32.204 .243 [TPEFCPRO=.00] 13.139 6.725 1.954 .052 -.128 26.407 .020 [TPEFCPRO=1.00] 0b ...... [RFEFCPRO=.00] 7.725 4.228 1.827 .069 -.616 16.066 .018 [RFEFCPRO=1.00] 0b ...... [DSEFCPRO=.00] 23.671 10.750 2.202 .029 2.464 44.878 .025 [DSEFCPRO=1.00] 0b ...... [LSEFCPRO=.00] 5.073 2.818 1.800 .073 -.487 10.633 .017 [LSEFCPRO=1.00] 0b ...... [FDEFCPRO=.00] 8.509 4.183 2.034 .043 .258 16.761 .022 [FDEFCPRO=1.00] 0b ...... [SOLI=.00] -18.698 4.803 -3.893 .000 -28.173 -9.224 .075 [SOLI=1.00] 0b ...... Source: Computed from survey data, 2013

The GLM- univariate analysis was experience the effect of solar intensity used to analyze the effect of each of [SOLI=0]. Similarly, the value 23.671 the explanatory variables on the for [DSEFCPRO=0] indicates that the dependent variable. Accordingly, with quantity of crops produced has the assumption that the two groups increased by an amount of 23.671 (who experienced the climate change quintals for those reference groups effect and who did not experienced that have not experienced the effect of the effect) have similar effect, the disease while it declined by the same value -18.698 for [SOLI=0] indicates amount for those who really has that, crop production for the group experienced crop disease. that had experienced the effect of solar intensity [SOLI=1] has declined by an On top of these, the value 8.509 for amount equal to 18.698 quintals as [FDEFCPRO=0] shows that, compared to those who did not production of crop has declined by an M. Karthikeyan and Moges Tadesse [38]

amount of 8.509 quintals for those that the value 5.073 groups who experienced the effect of for[LSEFCPRO=0] indicates that, flood [FDEFCPRO=1]; and it has production has increased by 5.073 increased by 8.509 quintals for those quintals for those groups that have who did not experience the effect of not experience the effect of land slide flood. The value 13.139 while production had fall down by for[TPEFCPRO=0] designates that, 5.073 quintals for those who production of crops has reduced by experienced the effect of land slide. the amount of 13.139 quintals for those groups that have experienced the effect of temperature while it has Adaptation strategies and increased the production by an support from stakeholders amount of the same for those who did The respondent farmers were asked to not experience the adverse effect of respond to the statements related to temperature. By and large the value awareness on climate change, 7.725 for[RFEFCPRO=0] indicates perception on increase in crop that, the production has declined by production, adaptation strategies such 7.725 quintals for those who have as, crop diversification, crop experienced the effect of rainfall; replacement, and irrigation. The while production has increased by results are presented in the following 7.725 quintals for those who did not table. experience the adverse effect of rainfall. The last but not the least is

Table 2: Farmers’ perception on climate change and adaptation strategies

Perception category Perception response Items Strongly Neither Strongly Total Disagree Disagree Nor Agree Agree Awareness on climate 124 (62.0) 73 (36.5) 0 3 (1.5) 0 200 (100) change Increase in crop 118 (59.0) 79 (39.5) 1 (0.5) 2 (1.0) 0 200 (100) production Crop diversification as 180 (90.0) 13 (6.5) 1 (0.5) 4 (2.0) 2 (1.0) 200 (100) adaptation strategy Crop replacement as 186 (93.0) 7 (3.5) 0 5 (2.5) 2 (1.0) 200 (100) adaptation strategy Irrigation as adaptation 92 (46.0) 0 0 0 (54.0) 200 100) strategy Figures in brackets are percentages to row total

The results from descriptive statistics production has not increased as (see table 2) revealed that level of evidenced by 98.5% of the awareness on climate change and crop respondents. It was statistically Journal of Science and Sustainable Development (JSSD), 2014, 1(3) 31-41

Assessing the Effect of Climate Change on Crop Production and Adaptation Strategies [39] significant at a Pearson Chi-Square flood, temperature, rainfall and value of 0.075. Majority (96.5%) of landslide are found to be the most farmers did not use crop serious factors negatively influencing diversification and crop replacement crop production. In other words more as adaptation strategy. It was found severe the adverse effect of climate statistically significant at Pearson Chi- change the more would be a decline in Square value of 0.037. Moreover, crop production. With regard to 54.0% of respondents did not use adaptation strategies, it can be irrigation as adaptation strategy, concluded that the level of awareness whereas 46.0% of those who have of member farmers on climate change access to irrigation schemes have used is very low and crop production has it as adaptation strategy to cope up declined due to the effect of climate with the effect of climate changes change. Though there are different which is statistically significant at adaptation strategies, majority of Pearson Chi-square value of 0.039. member farmers have been using only However, the Focus Group Discussion conservation; double cropping, and result showed that the farmers have water storage as supplementary been using conservation; double adaptation strategies. The support cropping, and water storage as from concerned stakeholders like supplementary adaptation strategies. disaster department and agricultural The support from disaster department cooperatives are not significant and and agricultural cooperatives are not the majority of farmers never received significant as evident from 87.5% of food aid, which must be appreciable. the respondents. The responses given by key informants were also in line with the farmers (member respondents). They also agree with Recommendations climate change effect and adaptation strategies. They reported that the Since the adverse effect of climate adaptation to climate change was not change cannot be controlled within a as expected, so that there has been a short period of time, long term decline in crop production in the measures have to be designed and study area. implemented. • It can be recommended that farmers at their level should adapt different strategies to cope up with the adverse Conclusion effect of climate change on crop production. The effect of climate change on crop • Concerted effort of all concerned stakeholders is paramount importance to production is very serious for those design appropriate measures to mitigate member farmers who experienced the the adverse effect of statistically effect as compared to those who did significant variables to enhance the level not experience. So, it can be concluded of awareness of farmers on climate that solar intensity, crop disease, M. Karthikeyan and Moges Tadesse [40]

change and adaptation strategies for participated from Bodda and increased crop production. Welenkomi agricultural cooperative • Specifically, to mitigate the adverse effect societies. of crop diseases farmers should be trained on the use and application of bio fertilizer, proper pesticides and herbicides. References • The adverse effect of flood and landslide can be adapted by construction of check dams, contour farming and other Alex Baudouin. 2007. Welenkomi, 35 measures. years later, Department of • Besides, farmers can use plants that can Geography, NTNU, Trondheim. prevent soil erosion and increase soil Benhin J. K. A. 2008. South African crop fertility as a strategy. farming and climate change: an • To cope up with the adverse effect of economic assessment of impacts. excessive rainfall, farmers must adapt Global Environmental Change 18 (4), strategies like crop replacement, crop 666–678. diversification; short term crops which Bureau of Finance and Economic give yield within a short period, proper Development. 2008. Report of irrigation systems, water storage Bureau of Finance and Economic systems, and water shed management. Development, Dendi Woreda. • On top of these, as Agricultural Cooperatives are the major stakeholder, Craufurd P. Q. And Wheeler T. R. they must take measures for increasing 2009. Climate change and the farmers’ awareness on climate change flowering time of annual adaptation, strengthening vertical and crops. Journal of Experimental horizontal linkage among stakeholders; Botany 60(9): 2529–2539. intensive training on climate change adaptation strategies are advocated to Geographical location of Dendi district. mitigate the adverse effect of climate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dendi_(wor change. eda), accessed on 3.1.2011

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