Hazard Risk Resilience
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THIS ISSUE HAZARD In Search of Tipping Points RISK Regenerating Brownfield Land Sustainably RESILIENCE Rebuilding after Cyclone Sidr Climate Change and Coffee © Espen Rasmussen/Panos Pictures INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS EDITORS Dave Petley and Brett Cherry COPY EDITOR Krysia Johnson CONTRIBUTORS Victoria Ridley Md Nadiruzzaman Brett Cherry Dave Petley Matthew Kearnes David Divine COVERS: Katie Oven Rebuilding the embankment in Padma Pakur, Bangladesh Peter Swift after Cyclone Alia ravaged the area in 2009. Jack Barnard Villagers form a human chain to carry mud up the embankment JD Asquith to defend against sea level rise that affects hundreds of thousands of people living on islands in south Bangladesh. Folarin Akinbami Where migration is not an option for people living on the Mylène Riva low-lying islands, adaptation is imperative for survival. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Dave Petley Its aim is to provide information body that reports on the state of climate change are important Brett Cherry about the research that we and the science of climate change, primarily not of its own right Alex Densmore others are undertaking across the IPCC, is conservative in but in the context of other Sarah Curtis the broad areas of hazard, risk its reporting of the magnitude major changes in the and resilience, especially the of observed and anticipated global system, including findings. We hope that this changes to the climate system. population growth, water IHRR MANAGEMENT BOARD magazine will be interesting However, it is also clear resource depletion, ecosystem Prof Dave Petley, Executive Director of IHRR and informative, and needless that parts of the scientific simplification, increased to say we welcome any feedback community are proving to be urbanisation and reducing Prof Sarah Curtis, Director of Frontier Knowledge that you might have, good or somewhat unhelpful in the food security. It is combinations bad. We intend to produce public comments that they of these and other challenges Dr Alex Densmore, Director of Hazards Research two issues per year, one in the make about climate change. that represents the greatest summer and one in the winter, There has been a tendency challenge to modern societies. Prof Lena Dominelli, Director of Vulnerabilities supplementing multimedia amongst some to express the Of course the same style of and Resilience communications available via processes and risks associated language is also sometimes Dr Claire Horwell, our website and blog. with climate change in what at used in the description of other Lecturer, Department As I write this editorial, issues times approaches apocalyptic hazards, including geophysical of Earth Sciences of science communication terms. Indeed, the term hazards and security threats. are once again in the news, “catastrophic” is frequently It is incumbent upon the DESIGN especially in relation to the over used in describing climate research community to give www.wearewarm.com threats posed by the changing change, and its likely impacts, an honest and open appraisal climate. It is clear that to the detriment of wider of these threats, but to do so the communication of this understanding of the issues. in a well-considered and PRINT important issue is becoming This is not to say that the measured manner. Alphagraphics increasingly difficult as various threats are not real or serious This magazine seeks to provide parties become more deeply – they are certainly that – but insight into research in many entrenched in their views. using language that at times is of these key areas, and to do Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience It is intensely frustrating to almost religious in its fervour so in a manner that illuminates watch the media debate on to describe those threats is at Durham University our levels of understanding, DH1 3LE climate change, which reflects best deeply unhelpful. There and in some cases our lack very poorly the reach and is a clear need for scientists to +44 (0)191 334-2257 of understanding of these [email protected] significance of the scientific be measured and considered in important issues. www.durham.ac.uk/ihrr evidence that underpins our their communication of these understanding of the ways in threats, and to ensure that the © Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, which humans are causing the focus is on the probable, not DAVE PETLEY Durham University 2012. All articles atmosphere and the oceans to the improbable, effects. There Executive Director, may not be reproduced without written warm. Indeed, there is little is also a need to emphasise Institute of Hazard, Risk and permission. doubt that the United Nations that the threats associated with Resilience, Durham University 03 Research highlights A round-up of recent IHRR research findings 04 Features In Search of 10 Climate Change 16 Regenerating 19 Surviving 26 Tipping Points and Coffee Brownfield Land the Storm Researchers are on the How will climate Methods to transform How communities in hunt for the elusive change affect coffee brownfield land Bangladesh are coping ‘tipping point’ in physical growers in Africa? sustainably to improve with the aftermath of and social systems. land quality and Cyclone Sidr. community health. Project focus Perspectives Built 24 Putting a ‘Face’ 30 Remembering 32 The Power 37 Infrastructure on Resilience Aberfan of Science for Older People’s Defining resilience Lessons learnt from the The role of strategic Care in Conditions within multiple 1963 landslide disaster science in the of Climate Change disciplines in South Wales governance of research Bios Introducing some of the researchers at the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience. 38 V1 | No 1 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS © Jim Asher, Butterfly Conservation Climate change causing IHRR plants, animals and insects to move north and to higher elevations Plant, animal and insect species are moving north and to higher places in regions of the world that have the greatest levels of warming, according to a study co-authored by Dr Ralf Ohlemüller that was published in Science. Ohlemüller and his research team calculated how far species were expected to move if warming trends due to climate change were to increase. They found that a large variety of species from butterflies to birds and mammals have been moving north as expected in search of a suitable climate. Using 54 previous studies on the impact of climate change on the movement of more than 2000 different species, they demonstrated a statistical linkage between species’ rate of movements to higher elevations and latitudes and areas that have the highest levels of warming due to climate change. This study is the first to link a wide range of species together that have been impacted by the Earth’s changing climate due to human production of greenhouse gases. ‘Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming’. Science, 333, 6045 DOI: 10.1126/science.1206432 Climate change expected New insights into the to impact UK’s older population Extreme weather events due to climate change are expected to increase impacts of EPSRC research in the UK within the next 30 years that will affect built infrastructure A study by Dr Matthew Kearnes and Dr Matthias Wienroth depended on by older people. A study from IHRR’s BIOPICCC (Built reveals how the distinction between science and politics is Infrastructure for Older People’s Care in Conditions of Climate Change) ‘utilised as a resource in both sustaining an institutional project led by Dr Katie Oven and Prof Sarah Curtis, has mapped future identity and developing political strategies’. They concluded risks of extreme weather along with the growth of older populations that measuring and quantifying the impacts made by public in England. The study includes work from Dr Ralf Ohlemüller, Dr Sim Reaney and Dr Mylène Riva. Researchers found that some areas of research funding are used as devices to render science the UK likely to experience extreme weather events such as floods and and research valuable. The EPSRC in effect reframes ideas heatwaves will also have large concentrations of older people in the future of research excellence by adopting different conceptual requiring adaptations to be made. The study has produced maps that strategies such as widening the meaning of ‘impact’ to identify parts of England where resilience strategies will be most needed include societal and policy impacts along with economic and severely tested in adapting older people’s health and social care ones. (See ‘The Power of Science’ p.37 of this issue). facilities to climate change. (See ‘Built Infrastructure for Older People’s Care in Conditions of Climate Change’ p.24 of this issue.) ‘Tools of the Trade: UK Research Intermediaries and the Politics of Impacts’. Minerva, 49, 2 DOI: 10.1007/s Climate Change and Health and Social Care: Defining Future Hazard, 11024-011-9172-4 Vulnerability and Risk for Infrastructure Systems Supporting Older People’s Health Care in England. Applied Geography, 33: 16-24 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.05.012 05 Living amongst landmines and cluster bombs on the Lebanon/Israeli border Physical hazards receive a great deal of attention Clare Collingwood, a PhD student in IHRR and New opportunities are available after from the mainstream press, but man-made the Dept of Geography is investigating the extent contamination is cleaned up, but how these physical hazards also exist especially in the of the landmine and cluster bomb contamination spaces are re-populated and developed forms of explosives left from military warfare. in Lebanon including their removal, which can remains unclear. The research is funded by The border between Lebanon and Israel, known prevent harm and potentially save many lives. the ESRC CASE scholarship scheme and the as the ‘The Blue Line’, is a prime example of the For her research, Collingwood is looking at how Mines Advisory Group (MAG).