Hazard Risk Resilience

THIS ISSUE HAZARD In Search of Tipping Points RISK Regenerating Brownfield Land Sustainably RESILIENCE Rebuilding after Cyclone Sidr

Climate Change and Coffee

EDITORS Dave Petley and Brett Cherry

COPY EDITOR Krysia Johnson

CONTRIBUTORS Victoria Ridley Md Nadiruzzaman Brett Cherry Dave Petley Matthew Kearnes David Divine

COVERS: Katie Oven Rebuilding the embankment in Padma Pakur, Bangladesh Peter Swift after Cyclone Alia ravaged the area in 2009. Jack Barnard Villagers form a human chain to carry mud up the embankment JD Asquith to defend against sea level rise that affects hundreds of thousands of people living on islands in south Bangladesh. Folarin Akinbami Where migration is not an option for people living on the Mylène Riva low-lying islands, adaptation is imperative for survival. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS Dave Petley Its aim is to provide information body that reports on the state of climate change are important Brett Cherry about the research that we and the science of climate change, primarily not of its own right Alex Densmore others are undertaking across the IPCC, is conservative in but in the context of other Sarah Curtis the broad areas of hazard, risk its reporting of the magnitude major changes in the and resilience, especially the of observed and anticipated global system, including findings. We hope that this changes to the climate system. population growth, water IHRR MANAGEMENT BOARD magazine will be interesting However, it is also clear resource depletion, ecosystem Prof Dave Petley, Executive Director of IHRR and informative, and needless that parts of the scientific simplification, increased to say we welcome any feedback community are proving to be urbanisation and reducing Prof Sarah Curtis, Director of Frontier Knowledge that you might have, good or somewhat unhelpful in the food security. It is combinations bad. We intend to produce public comments that they of these and other challenges Dr Alex Densmore, Director of Hazards Research two issues per year, one in the make about climate change. that represents the greatest summer and one in the winter, There has been a tendency challenge to modern societies. Prof Lena Dominelli, Director of Vulnerabilities supplementing multimedia amongst some to express the Of course the same style of and Resilience communications available via processes and risks associated language is also sometimes Dr Claire Horwell, our website and blog. with climate change in what at used in the description of other Lecturer, Department As I write this editorial, issues times approaches apocalyptic hazards, including geophysical of Earth Sciences of science communication terms. Indeed, the term hazards and security threats. are once again in the news, “catastrophic” is frequently It is incumbent upon the DESIGN especially in relation to the over used in describing climate research community to give www.wearewarm.com threats posed by the changing change, and its likely impacts, an honest and open appraisal climate. It is clear that to the detriment of wider of these threats, but to do so the communication of this understanding of the issues. in a well-considered and PRINT important issue is becoming This is not to say that the measured manner. Alphagraphics increasingly difficult as various threats are not real or serious This magazine seeks to provide parties become more deeply – they are certainly that – but insight into research in many entrenched in their views. using language that at times is of these key areas, and to do Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience It is intensely frustrating to almost religious in its fervour so in a manner that illuminates watch the media debate on to describe those threats is at Durham University our levels of understanding, DH1 3LE climate change, which reflects best deeply unhelpful. There and in some cases our lack very poorly the reach and is a clear need for scientists to +44 (0)191 334-2257 of understanding of these [email protected] significance of the scientific be measured and considered in important issues. www.durham.ac.uk/ihrr evidence that underpins our their communication of these understanding of the ways in threats, and to ensure that the © Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, which humans are causing the focus is on the probable, not DAVE PETLEY Durham University 2012. All articles atmosphere and the oceans to the improbable, effects. There Executive Director, may not be reproduced without written warm. Indeed, there is little is also a need to emphasise Institute of Hazard, Risk and permission. doubt that the United Nations that the threats associated with Resilience, Durham University 03

Research highlights A round-up of recent IHRR research findings 04

Features

In Search of 10 Climate Change 16 Regenerating 19 Surviving 26 Tipping Points and Coffee Brownfield Land the Storm Researchers are on the How will climate Methods to transform How communities in hunt for the elusive change affect coffee brownfield land Bangladesh are coping ‘tipping point’ in physical growers in Africa? sustainably to improve with the aftermath of and social systems. land quality and Cyclone Sidr. community health.

Project focus Perspectives

Built 24 Putting a ‘Face’ 30 Remembering 32 The Power 37 Infrastructure on Resilience Aberfan of Science for Older People’s Defining resilience Lessons learnt from the The role of strategic Care in Conditions within multiple 1963 landslide disaster science in the of Climate Change disciplines in South Wales governance of research

Bios Introducing some of the researchers at the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience. 38

V1 | No 1 RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS

© Jim Asher, Butterfly Conservation Climate change causing IHRR plants, animals and insects to move north and to higher elevations Plant, animal and insect species are moving north and to higher places in regions of the world that have the greatest levels of warming, according to a study co-authored by Dr Ralf Ohlemüller that was published in Science. Ohlemüller and his research team calculated how far species were expected to move if warming trends due to climate change were to increase. They found that a large variety of species from butterflies to birds and mammals have been moving north as expected in search of a suitable climate. Using 54 previous studies on the impact of climate change on the movement of more than 2000 different species, they demonstrated a statistical linkage between species’ rate of movements to higher elevations and latitudes and areas that have the highest levels of warming due to climate change. This study is the first to link a wide range of species together that have been impacted by the Earth’s changing climate due to human production of greenhouse gases.

‘Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming’. Science, 333, 6045 DOI: 10.1126/science.1206432

Climate change expected New insights into the to impact UK’s older population Extreme weather events due to climate change are expected to increase impacts of EPSRC research in the UK within the next 30 years that will affect built infrastructure A study by Dr Matthew Kearnes and Dr Matthias Wienroth depended on by older people. A study from IHRR’s BIOPICCC (Built reveals how the distinction between science and politics is Infrastructure for Older People’s Care in Conditions of Climate Change) ‘utilised as a resource in both sustaining an institutional project led by Dr Katie Oven and Prof Sarah Curtis, has mapped future identity and developing political strategies’. They concluded risks of extreme weather along with the growth of older populations that measuring and quantifying the impacts made by public in England. The study includes work from Dr Ralf Ohlemüller, Dr Sim Reaney and Dr Mylène Riva. Researchers found that some areas of research funding are used as devices to render science the UK likely to experience extreme weather events such as floods and and research valuable. The EPSRC in effect reframes ideas heatwaves will also have large concentrations of older people in the future of research excellence by adopting different conceptual requiring adaptations to be made. The study has produced maps that strategies such as widening the meaning of ‘impact’ to identify parts of England where resilience strategies will be most needed include societal and policy impacts along with economic and severely tested in adapting older people’s health and social care ones. (See ‘The Power of Science’ p.37 of this issue). facilities to climate change. (See ‘Built Infrastructure for Older People’s Care in Conditions of Climate Change’ p.24 of this issue.) ‘Tools of the Trade: UK Research Intermediaries and the Politics of Impacts’. Minerva, 49, 2 DOI: 10.1007/s Climate Change and Health and Social Care: Defining Future Hazard, 11024-011-9172-4 Vulnerability and Risk for Infrastructure Systems Supporting Older People’s Health Care in England. Applied Geography, 33: 16-24 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.05.012 05

Living amongst landmines and cluster bombs on the Lebanon/Israeli border Physical hazards receive a great deal of attention Clare Collingwood, a PhD student in IHRR and New opportunities are available after from the mainstream press, but man-made the Dept of Geography is investigating the extent contamination is cleaned up, but how these physical hazards also exist especially in the of the landmine and cluster bomb contamination spaces are re-populated and developed forms of explosives left from military warfare. in Lebanon including their removal, which can remains unclear. The research is funded by The border between Lebanon and Israel, known prevent harm and potentially save many lives. the ESRC CASE scholarship scheme and the as the ‘The Blue Line’, is a prime example of the For her research, Collingwood is looking at how Mines Advisory Group (MAG). severity of these types of hazards and what they after spaces are cleared of landmines or cluster mean for the people that live there. bombs they are reclaimed and developed. © JB Russell / MAG

Targeted regeneration could be key to boosting health of coalfield communities in the UK Research by Dr Myléne Riva and Prof Sarah Curtis confirms that better economic conditions, well-being and health seem to go hand in hand. The research also reveals an increased likelihood of long-term limiting illness in some coalfield communities that have faced economic challenges. But some have done better than others in terms of health, possibly exemplifying cases of resilience. The findings could inform efforts in regeneration of human health in economically disadvantaged areas. They are important for understanding the health inequalities still present in coalfield communities, but also help identify areas that are most vulnerable in order to help government and community groups assist in regeneration efforts to address health inequalities directly. (For more about this research see an in-depth interview with Dr Mylène Riva about the study on IHRR’s blog: http://wp.me/pSWpn-z1).

Improving ecology of the River Eden © Eden Rivers Trust The Eden Demonstration Test Catchment (EdenDTC) project co-directed by Dr Sim Reaney is monitoring river water quality through ten different stations located throughout the River Eden and its tributaries. Data collected about the water quality of the rivers is available to farmers, local communities and anyone interested in improving river health in the UK or elsewhere in the world. Problems with agricultural pollution arise from fertiliser, livestock manure and soil erosion. Monitoring the River Eden can test measures implemented by farmers and the Environment Agency to reduce diffuse pollution entering the river. Small changes to how farmers manage their land can lead to significant improvements in river water quality, but also help them preserve top soil and reduce nutrient losses. The Eden DTC project is part of a recent framework developed by the European Commission to improve river water quality in the European Union through citizen action.

Water quality data of the River Eden is currently available on the Eden DTC’s website: www.edendtc.org.uk

How earthquakes build and destroy mountains Earthquakes build mountains through 60,000 landslides in the Longmen Shan They were also able to measure the height of uplift but also erode them by causing Mountains close to the Tibetan Plateau. the Longmen Shan Mountains before and after landslides, bringing them back down The earthquake killed close to 80,000 the earthquake in order to estimate how much again. Rob Parker’s PhD in IHRR looks people, leaving a lasting impact on at material was added. They found that large at the evolution of hillslope stabilities least 15 million people. A study published shallow earthquakes may actually be reducing and how landslide hazards change over in Nature Geoscience by Rob Parker, Dr the volume of mountains, leading to land loss. time in mountain ranges that experience Alex Densmore, Dr Nick Rosser, Prof Dave earthquakes. He is asking one simple Petley and Siobhan Whadcoat, using remote ‘Mass wasting triggered by the 2008 question in his research: Do large satellite imaging, mapped landslides Wenchuan earthquake greater than orogenic earthquakes build or destroy mountains? triggered by the Wenchuan Earthquake and growth’. Nature Geoscience, 4, 449–452 A 7.9 magnitude earthquake in China known found that an estimated volume of material DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1154. as the ‘Wenchuan Earthquake’ triggered over between 5-15 km3 was moved by landslides. 07

Exploring groundwater The role of trust in the resilience arsenic contamination of financial markets in Bangladesh An important study from Prof Peter Atkins In a fascinating study from Work Package 2 The realisation that sub-prime mortgage loan and Dr Manzurul Hassan explores the of the Tipping Points project: ‘Financial Crisis originators systematically failed to verify the spatial variability of groundwater arsenic in the Banking Sector: Past and Present’, credit-worthiness of sub-prime borrowers concentrations in southwest Bangladesh. Prof Roman Tomasic and Dr Folarin Akinbami triggered a complete shut-down of global credit Arsenic contaminated groundwater provide keen insights into the role of trust in markets which eventually resulted in a credit currently threatens the health of 70 financial markets including investment firms crunch and then the global financial crisis. million people in 61 of 64 districts and commercial banks. In this study, the authors explore some case studies demonstrating that trust is vital to in Bangladesh. Trust is essential to how investment and the global financial system, and can play an Understanding the complex processes commercial banks and firms provide services important role in mitigating or even preventing of arsenic concentrations in groundwater to their customers and each other. Researchers global financial crises in the future. and how they spread over time is currently argue that trust is of fundamental importance needed. The study reveals a highly uneven in maintaining liquidity in financial markets The Role of Trust in Maintaining the Resilience and preventing financial institutions from spatial pattern of arsenic concentrations. of Financial Markets. Journal of Corporate Law Arsenic-safe zones were found mostly becoming insolvent during times of crisis. Studies 11, 2:369-394(26) concentrated in the north, central and http://dro.dur.ac.uk/9327 south part of the study area in southwest Bangladesh (Ghona Union, Satkhira District) but were scattered throughout. Arsenic contaminated zones were found in the west and northeast parts of the study area. Modelling used in the study showed High unemployment rates in England a decrease in arsenic concentration lead to poor community health with an increase in aquifer depth. (An interview with Dr Manzurul Hassan about the arsenic groundwater disaster New research shows that long-term economic of the population of England overall, it is a in Bangladesh is available on IHRR’s disadvantage associated with low-levels of large sample of more than 200,000 people, blog: http://wp.me/pSWpn-8Q). employment in some parts of England leads to followed for more than 20 years. Bringing this poor community health. The study authored by information together with local employment Dr Mylène Riva and Prof Sarah Curtis looked at information, produced specially for this study, Application of geostatistics with Indicator employment rates in different areas of England has produced a new perspective on risks to Kriging for analyzing spatial variability from 1981 to 2008. They examined how health from poor economic conditions. of groundwater arsenic concentrations employment trends are related to mortality in Southwest Bangladesh. Journal of The results underline the importance of efforts and illness. Environmental Science and Health, to improve health in areas with especially Part A. 46, 11 One group of people in the study lived in ‘deep-seated, persistent deprivation and health www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21879851 disadvantaged areas where employment rates disadvantage’. The situation in these areas is of had been persistently low for nearly three particular concern given that we are undergoing decades. This group had worse health by the a general and prolonged economic downturn, end of the study period and had worse risks of which is likely to affect these disadvantaged mortality, especially in comparison with people areas most seriously, now and in the future. living in places where employment had been This study illustrates work in the IHRR about buoyant and well above the national average risks for human populations that operate over for a long time. the long-term. It shows that these long-running The ‘health gap’ between people in areas challenges to human health and well-being of low employment and high employment are important, as well as risks that happen are considerable. Researchers say that local suddenly. Building resilience to such long-term improvement in some areas would need to risks is an essential goal for human societies. be significant in order to eradicate the health inequalities between communities in England

with different local labour market conditions. Long-term local area employment rates as The research is unusual because relatively predictors of individual mortality and morbidity: few studies have investigated the risks for a prospective study in England, spanning more health associated with long-term trends in than two decades. Journal of Epidemiology and local economic conditions. Although the Community Health. DOI:10.1136/jech-2011- population studied is not exactly representative 200306 INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

From Around the Detecting landslides World with earthquake monitoring networks

Large, fast landslides, especially to have a characteristic set of those formed from hard rock, waveforms – a landslide ‘finger generate earthquake waves that print’ – that allows them to can be recorded remotely. This be distinguished from other provides the potential to detect events that generate seismic remotely large landslides as signals. The research shows that they occur and to determine scientists are one step closer parameters such as the speed of to remote monitoring of large movement. landslide events, especially those in high mountain areas, A recent study published in the which may allow both a better Journal of Geophysical Research understanding of the frequency investigated these seismic of these large landslides, and the signals, focusing on whether hazards themselves in properties of a landslide, such real time. as volume, can be derived from the seismic signals recorded remotely. To do this, 20 known Dammeier, F., Moore, J., rockslides from the Alps were Haslinger, F., & Loew, S. compiled, and the data recorded (2011). Characterization in the regional seismic network of alpine rockslides using was analysed for each event. statistical analysis of seismic The research demonstrates signals. Journal of Geophysical that these events are indeed Research, 116 (F4) DOI: detectable and that they tend 10.1029/2011JF002037

New model for understanding No increase in global rock fall behaviour risk for big earthquakes Rockfalls kill hundreds of people per year worldwide, and they cause Despite the large magnitude earthquakes that have occurred in Japan, severe economic disruption along railway lines and roads. During the New Zealand, Sumatra, Chile and other parts of the world, the global risk winter of 2011-12 in Scotland, a series of rockfalls on the A890 between of big earthquakes is no higher today than in the past, according to a study Lochcarron and Kyle led to its closure for over two months causing long published in PNAS. Researchers examined the timing of large earthquakes detours (in some cases over 200 km) and serious economic disruption to with a magnitude of 7 or higher from 1900 to present, after removing local local communities. Over the last decade, there have been many studies clustering related to aftershocks, in order to identify any anomalies when that have tried to relate rates of rockfall activity to environmental drivers comparing present and past earthquake records. While the global rate of such as rainfall, frost and strong winds. Perhaps surprisingly, these studies earthquakes 8 or higher in magnitude is at a record high since 2004, rates have been nearly as high in the past, and the rate of smaller quakes is close have shown poor correlations between these environmental drivers and the to the historical average. Any global rate changes in earthquake risk would rockfalls themselves. Recent research published in Earth Surface Processes require the existence of actual physical mechanisms that could cause such and Landforms provides a spectacular set of laser scan datasets to look at changes in the first place. While it is possible for large earthquakes to trigger the evolution of rockslope failure in Yosemite National Park. In particular, other earthquakes, this process increases the earthquake risk regionally, it showed that 14 rockfalls in late 2010 occurred in a sequence and not globally. The study finds that due to lack of statistical evidence of large suggests that it was caused by stress redistributions associated with each earthquakes spreading over time on a global scale and physical mechanisms rockfall event. Researchers have developed a mechanical model to explain that would cause ‘global clustering’ of earthquakes in the first place, no higher this process. Whilst it has long been suggested that the development of global risk for big earthquakes exists at this time. However, the study warns cracks might be the controlling process for rockfalls, (explaining why they that the current threat of large earthquakes in Sumatra, Chile, Japan and do not respond to environmental drivers) this study is the first to propose similar areas is above its long-term average and that the ongoing danger a direct mechanical model for explaining how these events occur. posed by earthquakes should not be ignored.

Stock, G.M., Martel, S.J., Collins, B.D. and Harp, E.L. 2012. Progressive failure of sheeted rock slopes: the 2009–2010 Shearer, P.M. and Stark, P.B. Global risk of big earthquakes Rhombus Wall rock falls in Yosemite Valley, California, USA. has not recently increased. PNAS. 109, 3: 717-7121 Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. DOI: 10.1002/esp.3192 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1118525109

Podcasts What is a Tipping Point? A flood scientist, mathematician, geographer, IHRR political scientist, English Studies professor, and Online others, talk about what tipping point means for them in their respective fields and beyond. So if you’re interested in exploring the ‘meaning’ of tipping point, give it a listen. http://bit.ly/leTvOe

Brownfield Regeneration Reports In this podcast from ROBUST (Regeneration of Tipping Points Brownfield Land Using Sustainable Technologies) Annual Report project, Dr Karen Johnson explains different aspects of the project including how to remediate The first annual report from IHRR’s Tipping brownfield land using recycled minerals known as Points project is available. It gives an overview manganese oxides left from the water treatment of the project’s progress so far along with its industry and other sources. http://bit.ly/ozPc8F aims and goals for the future. In its first year the project has shown that there is clearly much more to ‘tipping point’ than simply being a popular Insurers using computer modelling ‘buzz word’ and that it may actually describe to identify ‘risky clients’ something quite profound about the physical and social world we live in. This podcast from a graduate of the MA in Risk, Health and Public Policy at Durham University http://bit.ly/pfTmnM explains how some insurance companies are using computer modelling and data mining of people’s Building Rural Resilience lifestyle choices found on the internet to evaluate in Seismically Active Areas health-related risks. http://bit.ly/pM038 A research brief was published by IHRR on the NERC and ESRC-funded project ‘Increasing Resilience to Natural Hazards’. This project focuses on how to increase the resilience of rural communities in Nepal to earthquakes and their secondary hazards, such as landslides. There is a Video clear role to play for both the physical and social Tabletop strike-slip sciences in engaging with communities vulnerable earthquake experiment to earthquakes, especially communities in Dr Alex Densmore demonstrates the strike- developing countries such as Nepal. slip behaviour of an earthquake using basic http://bit.ly/iK0VHX materials you can find at home. This video is appropriate for teaching younger and older people (or anyone else in between) about how earthquakes occur. http://vimeo.com/32287249

Uncovering the climate of the past in Greenland Scientists from the Tipping Points project travel to Greenland to collect artifacts (insects and pollen grains) that will help them uncover the mystery of a rapid cooling event that took place in the North Atlantic around 5000 years ago. http://vimeo.com/36511751

Building Resilience to Landslides in Mountain Communities Screencast seminar from Prof Dave Petley on how mountain communities in Nepal, Japan and other countries throughout the world build resilience to landslides. http://vimeo.com/31140142 INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

IN SEARCH OF TIPPING POINTS

Tipping point is often defined as an All of them mostly unrelated except that BRETT CHERRY joins IHRR instantaneous, and in some cases irreversible each involved a spontaneous, rapid, change; researchers on their quest to radical change that usually comes without an unpredictable, transformative turn explore the nature of tipping points warning. It has been thought of as being of events. connected to or caused by a series of smaller Tipping Points, a 5-year project funded by changes that came before it. ‘Tipping point’ is everywhere, from politicians the Leverhulme Trust, asks three very simple announcing the impending doom of the But tipping points are not only physical, but questions: (1) Do tipping points actually exist financial economy to scientists explaining the social as well, in how people talk, play, fight in the world? (2) Can they be understood environmental devastation caused by climate or argue, in other words – interact – on a universally i.e. does a tipping point leading change. It’s in the newspapers, on the radio, number of different levels. What is it about a to climate change have any similarity to a in scientific journals, popular magazines and word that draws us in, makes us understand tipping point that causes a bank crash? And televised political debates. Tipping point is or at least think we understand what’s being (3) if tipping points exist can they in any way joined by a sea of other buzz terms in wide described? When we observe changes that be predicted or can the world prepare for use today, but there seems to be something lead to melting in the arctic or a population them in the future? With as many potential about tipping point in particular that makes catching the flu from the spread of a virus, examples of tipping points in the world today it more than a mere metaphor. Tipping point why is it that words like ‘tipping point’ these questions have far from straightforward seems to touch on something fundamental seem to get it right? Recently, there have answers. Instead of delving into the many about our understanding of the world. been a wide variety of things described as possibilities of what counts as a tipping point But what makes it tick? tipping points, from climate systems to and how people can study them straight away, What makes a tipping point financial and political systems and even it would be best to start at the beginning a ‘tipping point’? fashion trends. – the origin of the metaphor – tipping point. 11

Usage of ‘tipping point’ in academic journals from 1957 - 2009 http://wp.me/p13wbQ-6r the ‘Tipping Point’ Metaphor: Agency and process for waves of change’. Bhatanacharoen P, Greatbatch D and Clark, T. ‘The Tipping Point of

‘Metropolitan Segregation’ published in Scientific American in 1957.

Tipping Point first became popularised by Malcolm Gladwell in his book The Tipping Point.

The birth of tipping point A study led by social scientists Dr Pojanath The research team are looking at how urban Bhatanacharoen, Prof David Greatbatch and Prof planners themselves first started using ‘tip point’, What is it about metaphors that make them stick Tim Clark did a citation analysis that searched for and how it began outside of academia as well as and what allows them to continue long after their academic articles that used the term tipping point, how researchers that use tipping point reference first use? In order for a metaphor to be used in but it also went a bit further than that. each other. ‘This helps us to understand what different ways it needs to be grounded in some The problem with citation analysis alone is that features of the term make it plastic and so enable commonality, but be loose enough to describe it doesn’t give you an accurate measure for a diverse variety of things. As words travel from it to travel between very different discourse how words actually spread. Researchers used person to person and culture to culture they communities’, says Clark. an alternative approach known as ‘discourse often transform into something else; they create analysis’. This of course contains another puzzling What makes tipping point unique is that its recent something new for the people that use them. term – ‘discourse’. To put it briefly, discourse often usage by academics from a range of different This brings into question to what degree words refers to discussion or speech, something that fields originates not with an obscurely known themselves actually affect us and whether they has been said. However, discourse can also imply sociologist from the 1950s, but a journalist with influence the world in really big ways, which much more than this in academic literature, as the New Yorker by the name of Malcolm Gladwell. brings us to ‘tipping point’. it refers to people’s representation of the world It was Malcolm Gladwell’s book The Tipping Point: In the social sciences, the story of tipping that is made up of ideas and concepts they have How little things can make a big difference that point begins in the US when it was coined by a acquired socially over time. “Discourse analysis led a diverse variety of researchers in medicine, sociologist named Mortin Grodzins in 1957 who is a plethora of approaches which is based upon sociology, climate science and many other fields published a study from the University of Chicago the premise that social realities are constructed to use the term ‘tipping point’. Since 2000, through language”, says Bhatanacharoen. Events, called ‘Metropolitan Segregation’ in the journal when The Tipping Point was first published, people or things represented in the media from Scientific American. In this study, Grodzins the metaphor’s use sky rocketed and it literally newspapers to film and the internet are often described what is known today as ‘white-flight’ – became a buzz word over night. Tipping Points when white people leave a neighbourhood after a framed in different ways creating new realities researchers discovered that in some cases the certain number of black people move in. Grodzins of what they appear to be. For example, well- only thing that academic studies using tipping called this social phenomenon a ‘tip point’, which known political leaders are framed as tyrants, point had in common was referencing Gladwell’s would later evolve into ‘tipping point’. This was liberators, or even fools through different kinds book. Before Gladwell, this term appears to be the first time tipping point was used formally of media discourse. virtually non-existent in scientists’ and humanities in sociology. Grodzins actually picked up the Discourse analysis can provide a much deeper term ‘tip point’ from urban planners and other understanding of how tipping point and other researchers’ fields and suddenly it is part of their housing professionals who observed how a certain terms are used within and outside of their regular vocabulary. How could this happen so percentage of black people (30 percent) would respective contexts because, as we know, tipping quickly and will it continue this way or will tipping cause the neighbourhood to ‘tip over’ and become point is not limited to only one context and can point eventually go the way of the dinosaur as all black. Researchers in the Tipping Points project be interpreted in many different ways. Like plants many metaphors before it? In order to find out, the were the first to come upon this interesting finding and animals, words do not grow in isolation, which Tipping Points project, along with other researchers that provided a clue to how words (including the is why discourse is important to finding out how from around the world, are studying how ideas ideas they refer to) spread. they evolve and are copied over time. spread both socially and culturally. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

Social learning “Humans are, first and foremost, social Time and time again we witness how focused creatures. In fact, our brains have actually social learning by a few gets amplified as In some ways nearly everyone is acquainted evolved to handle social relations, and to learn copying by the masses”, says Bentley. The with copying something they have seen, heard from others rather than have to ‘re-invent the internet has only amplified this form of social or read about. The internet is full of this kind wheel’ each time individually”, says Bentley. of activity on Google, social networking sites copying and understanding how this behaviour like Facebook, and blogs. How people copy In 2005, during the height of the bird flu works may allow warnings about disease or each other is also of extreme importance to scare, President George W Bush delivered a other hazards to be released more strategically. speech in the US warning people about the business. Retail markets, such as the fashion While tipping point has become extremely industry, rely heavily on monitoring what people spread of the bird flu virus. This may have been popular and social learning likely has something buy. Instead of encouraging individuals to the tipping point for public awareness of bird to do with how its use has spread throughout make their own independent decisions about flu as many people were already online and what they wear, clothing companies attempt searching Google for further information about academia and the media alike, what might it to influence people’s behaviour in order to get the disease. After Bush made his speech the actually describe about the physical world? them to buy their products. If a celebrity is imitated searches on Google for bird flu rose seen wearing a pair of shoes, jacket or knickers rapidly. The announcement made by a pivotal from a well-known brand, others will often do political figure had led to a sudden exceptional the same. But it’s not always clear how and why spike in web searches beyond the normal people make the choices they do or why they envelope of change and became a new trend. The inventiveness of baby names in the US copy certain things and not others. Why is it The internet reveals a number of interesting has tripled since the early 1990s that the name ‘Kristi’ was one of the top 100 things about how people copy each others’ (grey line – girls, black line – boys): baby names in the 1970s, but is now not even behaviour, that along with other examples, have in the top 1000? Despite a recording industry been used to question older models scientists dominated by digital music, why does vinyl have used to study human behaviour. live on? How did the riots in London evoke Many scientists are moving away from the massive looting and vandalism across cities idea that individuals are rational, autonomous throughout the UK? There is something about agents, but instead are much more susceptible how behaviour and ideas are socially learnt to the behaviour of those around them, leading through copying that may hold the answer. them to be influenced socially in a variety of Anthropologist Dr Alex Bentley and economist different ways. “Social influence is a better Dr Paul Ormerod discovered something unique model than the ‘rational actor’ especially for about human behaviour when people were certain phenomena, such as how buzz words presented with information about health propagate and how ideas spread; how the swine scares such as the avian influenza or ‘bird flu’ epidemic in 2005 and the H1N1 virus in 2009, flu scare became an epidemic; or even how better known as ‘swine flu’. Their research science makes its progress. revealed that interest in health scares actually spreads socially rather than through people Lorenz attractors. Bifurcations occur when small changes in Above: Bentley A and Ormerod P. ‘Accelerated innovation and increased a system lead to a sudden big change, causing the system to spatial diversity of US popular culture’. Advances in Complex Systems making actual physical contact with disease. divide into two or more. (ACS). http://www.paulormerod.com/pdf/BentleyOrmerod_ACS.pdf This of course doesn’t mean that all health scares are solely driven socially, but it does say something about how they spread rapidly and can be managed. Human behaviour, like other forms of animal behaviour, is learnt socially. But what makes humans unique is that they can imitate each other socially like no other animal that has come before them. Many kinds of animals including birds and even fish have their own kinds of ‘culture’, but none are as good as humans in imitating each others’ behaviour. 13

The Earth’s atmosphere and oceans interact forming one complex system that influences climate (photo: NASA).

Climate-change- has been working on modelling one of the Those who are susceptible to alcoholism, but biggest and costliest health problems known normally do not drink are at risk of becoming alcoholism-ocean-atmosphere in the UK and other parts of the world – alcoholics through social influence. Abstinence There are potentially many physical and alcoholism. to drinking shifts into probability of drinking biological systems that involve some kind of Alcoholism is a health epidemic that has that could lead to serious harm in susceptible tipping point. Stringing the names of some spread widely throughout the country. Unlike populations of young people. “You can have a these together (like the heading above) makes other models of alcoholism, a model for certain fraction of the population with alcohol for an amusing play on words. It doesn’t seem binge drinking, developed by Straughan and problems and the health care system will still be difficult to connect tipping points in climate colleague Prof Giuseppe Mulone from the stable, but if that population becomes too high change with tipping points in the ocean- University of Citta, Italy, focuses on young it’s going to be extremely costly, so it’s problems atmosphere system, as both are linked already, people who admit to having a drinking problem like this where there clearly is a tipping point, but how can these tipping points possibly be and those that don’t. Models for epidemics once it gets to a certain point, can the country related to a tipping point of alcoholism? Could have a built-in threshold. Once this threshold is afford it?”, says Straughan. For example, alcohol climate change be causing polar bears to hit passed it can lead to critical outcomes, serious treatment for males in North East England which the bottle? No, it’s not that these systems injury or death that can spread throughout has some of the highest rates of binge drinking in need to be directly related in order for there an entire population. Straughan says, “The the country, increased 384 to 532 per 100,000 to be a tipping point, but that they may share main parameter is the probability of someone people from 2000-06. The equivalent figures for something much more fundamental that can susceptible to alcoholism being converted to the whole of England during the same time were be explained mathematically. Tipping points someone with alcohol problems through peer 240 to 340 per 100,000. The goal of modelling may occur in very different ways for physical, pressure, by associating with those who drink alcoholism is to ensure that a certain threshold biological or social systems, but they may heavily. And that probability is a key parameter; is not exceeded in order to prevent an epidemic. also express something similar or the same in if that probability exceeds a certain level For alcohol problems typical around the city mathematics. In order to explore this notion then the basic alcohol-free solution of Durham in the North East, Straughan is using further Prof Brian Straughan, a mathematician, becomes unstable”. a multi-component drinking model: ‘susceptible’, INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

‘moderate’, ‘heavy’, ‘heavy and admit to having Another tipping point that has caught much One of the last major transitions that took a problem’ and ‘in treatment’. Today, wards in attention from popular media, academia and place during a climate similar to the one Durham and neighbouring Stockton may have government is the ‘tipping point’ associated we’re in now was a cooling event that a binge drinking rate as high as 50 percent. with climate change. occurred between 4,000-6,000 years ago. In order to combat the spread of alcoholism The popularity of tipping point theories of Temperatures around the North Atlantic a useful model is needed to provide the climate change is relatively recent. A wide dropped and many ice masses, including the national healthcare system with accurate variety of scientists including climatologists Greenland Ice Sheet, started to grow again geographers, physicists and mathematicians, predictions, which can be used to develop an after their retreat since the end of the last have been investigating whether our planet is appropriate policy strategy. Binge drinking ice age. This cooling event has puzzled about to cross a critical climate threshold into also affects certain vulnerable populations, climate researchers because there are no irreversible disaster. Some are more optimistic such as pregnant women, and mathematical than others saying that even if the Earth’s obvious reasons for it to happen. It is this modelling could account for them in order temperature rises significantly in the future, event that researchers from Tipping Points to help prevent disease and birth defects. the change is not necessarily irreversible. are currently studying to find out if indeed Another model that Straughan and Mulone Other theories posited by researchers are far this climate change represents a tipping have developed is similar to one used for grimmer stating that not only are we heading point that led to large-scale change in climate. people with bulimia that is split into two into inevitable environmental disaster, but there Long says, “When we think about climate categories – those that admit to having a is nothing we can do about it. Finally, there is change in the past we look for large external problem and those that don’t. Those that a minority of scientists who believe human- forcing mechanisms which trigger a shift don’t admit to having an alcohol problem is induced climate change is not happening and in climate such as an abrupt change in the the larger group of the two that needs to be that there are other reasons for the planet’s amount of incoming solar radiation, a sudden addressed by national health policy. warming. This group have failed to convince the majority of the climate science community, switch-off in the ocean’s circulation or the Modelling behaviour can assist health policy but with the help of the popular media, have collapse of an ice sheet”. According to Long, makers in looking for ways to get more people nonetheless convinced a significant number of the problem is that no such indicators have into treatment in order to counteract the high people throughout the world, despite a large, been found to explain the cause of the cooling levels of alcoholism in communities and help increasing amount of scientific evidence to the event: “The rates at which global sea level was them become alcohol-free. There are still contrary. But how do sudden, rapid shifts in rising or the ice sheets melting weren’t rapidly other problems however to do with relapse the Earth’s climate happen in the first place? changing at that time and the conventional which is currently 60-90 per cent according “There is no such thing as a single climate, drivers of climate during the mid-Holocene to recent estimates and modelling the number there are multiple climates over space and we seem to be fairly benign, yet we see from a of people who go from not admitting to know from our present understanding of the variety of past evidence that the climate in admitting they have an alcohol problem is Earth’s atmospheric system that many places the North Atlantic region and beyond actually far from straightforward. If there is a tipping warm up while other places simultaneously cool changed quite significantly”. In order to point in alcoholism that leads to an epidemic down. The question is whether or not we can in populations in North East England, or other see patterns of climate behaviour which might investigate how this rapid cooling event took parts of the world, then mathematics may make a coherent story about what is happening place, scientists suspect that interactions hold the answer to stopping the problem on average”, says Prof Antony Long, one of the between the ocean and atmosphere could before it starts. lead climate scientists on Tipping Points. be responsible. 15

As the sea ice melts in the Arctic, less incoming solar radiation is reflected and is absorbed by the dark ocean waters, causing more sea ice to melt (photo: NASA).

It is the coupling of ocean and atmosphere Positive feedbacks also play a role in what is So the changes impacting a system either models that serve as the basis of global known as ‘hysteresis’. In hysteresis, temporary internally or externally may not come into climate models because interactions between changes in a system are not only long-term, but effect until much later. According to Long, in both of these complex systems have one of the irreversible. If someone is to make sense of the terms of understanding future changes in the greatest influences on climate. For example, headline splashed on the cover of the morning Earth’s climate: “We can eyeball the data; we since the ocean covers more than 70 percent can look at patterns from here and patterns newspaper: ‘We have passed the climate tipping of the Earth’s surface it stores vast amounts of from there. But a more powerful way of doing point’, this could be understood as an extreme heat, most of which is located at the equator. this is to integrate your observations with example of hysteresis, where ultimate climate As the heat rises, it warms the atmosphere and climate modelling and that’s why we need our creates air temperature gradients (layers of hot change disaster is irreversible, but it is also mathematicians and other colleagues helping and cold air) along with winds. These winds not that simple. The Greenland ice sheet keeps us look at the data we’re developing”. push against the sea surface, driving ocean retreating further and further due to positive Whether tipping point describes actual, sudden currents that circulate warm and cold ocean feedbacks that lead to more melting, however, or transformative events in the world or is waters to different parts of the planet. In a it is still uncertain as to whether it is indeed simply a useful metaphor, it has created an sense, the Earth’s ocean and atmosphere irreversible. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been ongoing global discussion that seems to have form one complex system that directly much smaller today than in the past – for influences climate. its own positive feedbacks. The more tipping example during the last interglacial, about point is used in and outside of the social and When the ocean and atmosphere interact they 130,000 years ago, scientists now think the physical sciences, the more it seems to affect create ‘positive feedbacks’ that influence ice sheet reduced in size by as much as a third how people identify spontaneous changes in one another in astonishing ways. Long says, – but it didn’t melt entirely. In fact, it “re-grew the world that we are only beginning to “A positive feedback is something which to larger than its present size during the last understand. If we are to become more aware reinforces the consequences of an initial ice age”, says Long. If small changes do of these unique changes over time and how change”. He gives the example of a climate make a big difference then much can be they affect the world we live in, the tipping process known as the ‘ice-albedo feedback’. learnt from the past. point concept may serve as a way to illuminate Sea ice in the Arctic is highly reflective. pathways of knowledge never before taken. Because it’s white it can reflect a lot of As Long has noted, in the case of the If it does, we could be at the brink of uniting incoming solar radiation back out into space, mid-Holocene cooling event, there appear the world we experience with the seemingly maintaining or creating colder temperatures, to be no obvious external factors that brought unknown, myriad of complexity that lies which in turn can create more sea ice. On about this important cooling of the climate beneath it. the other hand, if more sea ice is melting it in the North Atlantic region. This means that We may be on the verge of a tipping point. exposes more of the dark, low albedo sea, there may be small internal changes in the which absorbs more solar radiation and heats climate system that haven’t been accounted up the atmosphere, melting more sea ice. for. But there is a bigger problem still – if the These examples of positive feedbacks are For further information about the Tipping changes are internal, and are the result of common in high northern latitudes where Points project visit www.durham.ac.uk/ changes in surface albedo of the land or the positive feedbacks within the system, it may ihrr/tippingpoints. oceans can change quickly. “That’s why many prove highly difficult for researchers to be able scientists think that in the future or even today to detect them. Hysteresis also means that Brett Cherry is the Research Writer and Dissemination the Arctic is warming much more quickly than systems may have a kind of ‘memory’ or Officer for IHRR which includes co-editing Hazard Risk lower latitudes”, said Long. ‘lag in time’. Resilience and managing the IHRR Blog: ihrrblog.org. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

VICTORIA RIDLEY explains how climate change threatens one of East Africa’s biggest cash crops

High-up in the forested mountains of South-East The value of coffee in East Africa Ethiopia, a country more famed for famine than Across the East Africa region arabica coffee thrives in pockets usually at agricultural productivity, green trees with plump high altitudes. Coffee farming and the associated production industries red berries thrive. These are Coffea arabica trees, employ millions of people across the region and contribute greatly to the source of arabica coffee that is native to this the East African economy, an area often associated with poverty stricken region of Ethiopia. Dubbed ‘Black Gold’ in a 2006 nations. The economic importance of coffee is striking. According to the film, coffee is one of the world’s most valuable UN, in 2008 the small landlocked country of Burundi was the eighth agricultural commodities and in Ethiopia alone poorest in the world and coffee accounted for 84 percent of the total value of agricultural exports. In Ethiopia, it is not only the economic value of 15 million people are dependent upon this industry. coffee that is important to the nation. As the homeland of arabica coffee, producing, brewing and drinking coffee is deeply engrained into Ethiopian history, culture and heritage. 17

These areas will have to diversify their food sources, by importing their crop of choice from other areas or grow alternative food crops that are more suited to the modified climate. For coffee farmers, diversification is far more complex. Growers of coffee are dependent upon the crop for an income, not just for subsistence living as many farmers of food crops are in developing nations. Coffee plants take several years to mature, so farmers must wait until their investment starts to payback. Given the time to reach maturity, growers are unable to switch between crops on an annual basis. Coffee farming is usually the main activity for many families throughout large regions that are capable of producing, so if the harvest fails or is poor, an entire community and their associated dependents are affected. Establishing insightful information to determine which coffee producing regions are most threatened by future climatic changes is critical, so that communities can begin to plan, diversify and mitigate the risk posed by a changing climate. To begin to investigate these issues our project explored the past and future suitability of arabica coffee in eight East African countries.

Threat of climate change Over the past 40 years the mean annual temperature in East Africa has risen by 1.2°C and annual precipitation has declined by 150mm. During the same period of time, the total area of land cultivated with arabica coffee has fallen. Using annual climate data, we established a model to identify locations within the eight East African countries that were climatically suitable for arabica coffee. To distinguish between regions that were very suitable and had near perfect climatic conditions for coffee production and areas that were within the physiological limits of arabica coffee plant development, but were not ideal, we established two different classifications of suitable locations – those that were climatically ‘optimal’ and areas that would be climatically ‘tolerable’. We found that the number of optimal and tolerable coffee growing locations had declined during the past 40 years, which Like all crops, a bountiful coffee harvest is Such changes in our weather systems will suggests that changes in climate have already begun to affect coffee producers. dependent to a great extent upon climatic affect agricultural productivity and the conditions. Arabica coffee is a climatically Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sensitive plant: it requires temperatures that (IPCC) has identified that agriculture-based CONTINUED > are not too hot, not too cold, perfectly timed industries will be amongst the most affected precipitation and no frost. Without these exact by future climatic changes. Indeed, several conditions, yields fall, quality declines and disease amongst plants can become endemic. studies have addressed the risk posed by climatic change on stable food crop yields in Over the next century, climate scientists predict that global temperatures will rise, that key producer regions, and in some areas it precipitation will become increasingly erratic, is predicted that the yields of wheat, maize, and that extreme events such as floods and rice and millet may be negatively affected by droughts will become more commonplace. predicted changes in temperature and rainfall. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

1. AdapCC (2009) Adaption for Smallholders Building resilience to Climate Change. URL: www.adapcc.org Identifying the limiting factors, whether regions (accessed 14/4/09). will be too hot, too cold, too wet or too dry, can 2. www.adapcc.org/download/Final-report_ assist in building resilience within current coffee Adapcc_17032010.pdf (accessed 20/05/11). growing communities. Our research using future 3. The study used output from the HadGEM, Echam5, climate data predictions, suggests that the and CSIRO3 global circulation models using the A1B and A2 emission scenarios. decline in precipitation will be a more limiting factor than rising temperatures in determining Conway, D., Hanson, C.E., Doherty, R. & Persechino, A. (2007) GCM Simulations of the Indian Ocean the number of future tolerable locations. Research dipole influence on East African rainfall; Present and insight of this sort can begin to inform decision Future. Geophysical Research Letters, 34: LO3705 makers. Increasing irrigation and planting Doi:10.1029/2006GL027597. more drought tolerant rather than heat tolerant Doherty, R.M., Sitch, S., Smith, B., Lewis, S.L. & species of coffee could be the key to securing Thornton, P.K. (2010) Implications of future climate and atmospheric CO2 content for regional biogeochemistry, These findings are supported by the Adaption the future of coffee growing communities. biogeography and ecosystem services across East Africa. to Climate Change for smallholders project In recent decades, Fairtrade organisations have Global Change Biology, 16: 617-640. (AdapCC), which was launched by the Fairtrade worked with coffee farming communities and IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In, Solomon, S., coffee company Cafédirect in 20071. Their cooperatives to champion fair prices and access Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M, . Avery, K.B., coffee farmers in East Africa and Latin Tignor, M. & Miller, H.L. (Eds.) Climate Change 2007: The to development opportunities. Guaranteeing a America have reported that changes in climate physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to price for coffee producers is critical as many the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel have negatively affected coffee production. growers live in poverty in some of the poorest on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. “I have never known the weather to be so countries in the world. Throughout East Africa Tabor, K. & Williams, J.W. (2010) Globally downscaled unpredictable,” says Willington Wamayeye, the involvement of Fairtrade organisations with climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts the General Manager of the Gumutindo Coffee coffee growing cooperatives has brought many of climate change. Ecological Applications, 20(2): 554-565. Cooperative in Uganda which supplies coffee to benefits to communities, including access Cafédirect. “The coffee plants are badly affected to education, new water wells and increases – flowering is stopping. Last year alone we Further information available at in access to technology. However, for the lost about 40% of our coffee production coffee growing communities in the highlands www.coffeeresearch.org because of climate change 2”. of Ethiopia and throughout East Africa, the www.eafca.org www.adapcc.org Using the output from three general circulation question must now be asked: in the face of models developed by climate scientists and climate change will coffee still be a viable two different emissions scenarios (giving crop by the end of the 21st Century? Victoria Ridley completed an MSc by Research at Durham different pictures of the social and economic University through the Department of Biology and Biomedical Sciences and IHRR on the past, present and make-up of a future world) we were able to future suitability of coffee growing in eight East African derive predictions for future mean annual nations. temperatures and annual precipitation for 2020, 2050 and 20803. This data was used to identify the number and geographical locations of future areas of optimal and tolerable climatic suitability for arabica coffee.

The results showed a decline in the number of climatically optimal locations but an increase in the number of climatically tolerable locations. Perhaps good news for the East Africa area, but the geographical locations of these tolerable areas must be compared to present day areas of suitability. It is evident that many of the sites that are suitable for coffee cultivation today will not be in years to come. For these communities mitigation strategies and diversification must be planned for to ensure the sustainability of livelihoods. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS 19 REGENERATING BROWNFIELD LAND USING SUSTAINABLE TECHNOLOGIES

BRETT CHERRY investigates how a team of Durham scientists are searching for methods to restore brownfield land sustainably

After the first industrial revolution, land began “Pollution is nothing to undergo a rapid transition in a matter of but the resources we decades. It soon became home to a plethora of industries including electric power generation, are not harvesting. coal mining, steel manufacturing, railroads, ship We allow them to building, automotive assembly lines, motorways, airports and a host of others that have left a disperse because deep impression on the world’s environment. we’ve been ignorant But like other forms of human intervention, industry didn’t come without a price and despite of their value”. the technological age seemingly separating people RICHARD BUCKMINSTER FULLER from the ‘natural world’ that gave birth to it, today humanity is beginning to realise again the importance of land. Land and industry underlie the development Much of the land that was once used by of modern society. All around us there industry in the past is unusable today because are examples of industrial engineering, of the environmental contamination it has manufacturing, building, innovation and left behind. While further industrialisation is employment. At its foundation is land. taking place all over the world, but especially Prior to industry, much of the land was used in rapidly developing countries like China primarily for agriculture, including plant and India, many urban and rural areas – cultivation and raising animals for food and ‘brownfields’– have been deindustrialised and clothing. Over time, the materials produced underutilised. Contaminated brownfield land from agricultural-based economies shifted has often been avoided by communities and dramatically in order to supply the growing developers due to the risks associated with demand of cities created by industry and industrial pollution, yet it still remains one technology. of our greatest resources. CONTINUED > INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

The problem with brownfield hectares (estimated by the EEA) and many For developing countries such as China, others. According to a report released by the brownfield land is becoming a growing problem. Brownfield carries many definitions and Concerted Action on Brownfield and Economic Much of its industrial restructuring has left associated risks with it. It has been defined as Regeneration Network (CABERNET) in Europe: many abandoned brownfield sites in mostly land formerly used by industry that has some urban areas. As industrial expansion continues “Brownfield land will always be with us -- it level of contamination, preventing it from being in China, more of its land will be transformed is a symptom of the process of urban land developed without meeting environmental and into brownfields in the future. Unless the use change, seen as cities evolve to meet the public safety regulatory standards. In the UK, transfer to industrialisation in China and other needs and challenges of a changing society and however, it is simply defined as ‘previously developing countries is done sustainably, there economy. There will never be, nor should there developed land’. There is currently no universally will be an even greater need for green, low-cost, be, no available brownfield land”. methods to regenerate brownfield land. agreed definition of brownfield in Europe. The UK currently has a total of around 76,600 hectares of brownfield land (not including Wales and Northern Ireland). In 2003, the Brownfield density (brownfield area as % of total area of country) Labour government set a target of 60 percent of all new housing to be located on brownfield land. So far the government has identified enough brownfield for 50,000 new homes. Not all of it is contaminated, but many brownfield sites in the UK do have light to heavy levels of contamination, mostly left from industry. In response to this vital problem, scientists and engineers throughout the world are researching ways to restore brownfield land at little economic or environmental cost.

There are a variety of mostly expensive high- tech methods being explored for remediating contaminated land, but some of the conventional ones are ‘dig and dump’, where contaminated land is moved to a landfill and ‘stabilisation and solidification’, where cement is dug into the ground to immobilise contaminants. Stabilisation and solidification, while much better than the former, has been found unsustainable in many cases and prohibitively expensive for communities who want to regenerate brownfields in their area. There is also the widely used ‘cap and bury’ method where impermeable barriers are created, such as slurry walls, in attempt to seal off contaminants from the rest of the landscape.

The problem with moving soil with contaminants is that it doesn’t remediate the problem, but instead moves the source of pollution to a landfill that may even be located near places where people live. Another problem with landfills is that they are subject to the same environmental processes as the rest of the land. Contaminants, such as mercury, lead and arsenic placed in Suspected / potential number landfills have been known to leach into the United Kingdom of brownfield sites: groundwater over time threatening human, Brownfield Land Profile ENGLAND: 100,000 plant and animal health. SCOTLAND: 4,222 Estimated total area of brownfield land: The problem of brownfield land is ubiquitous ENGLAND: 65,760 hectares throughout Europe. According to the National Source: Land Use Database, other countries throughout SCOTLAND: 10,847 hectares National Land Use Database ‘04 Europe that also have large amounts of brownfield Scottish Vacant & Derelict Land Survey ‘04 land include: Germany: 128,000 hectares; Poland: 800,000 hectares; France: 200,000 21

Figure 2. Computer simulations allow for the prediction of contaminant movement through soil. This can be used to help focus remediation schemes and predict their effects. Credit: Jack Barnard.

Figure 3. Lysimeters allow researchers to test the quality of water Figure 1. Credit: Peter Swift. after it passes through contaminated soil. Credit: Jonathan Asquith.

Science and sustainability ability to oxidise organic contaminants, By working with local communities, the breaking them down. They are able to team hope to develop a methodology whereby The word ‘sustainability’ has been used so immobilise toxic metals in the soil including local communities can work with academics frequently in the recent past that it has been lead and arsenic preventing them from and local authorities to regenerate their difficult to pin down exactly what it means, entering into the ground water. brownfield land. especially in relation to science and technology. Usually, if something is sustainable it will be Manganese oxides are also used for The project is developing a new way to able to endure for some time and be useful for environmental applications in industry. harness waste minerals for beneficial uses generations to come. It also implies that there They are used by water treatment companies to land that could be redeveloped near where will be a positive environmental impact. To to clean water from reservoirs before it comes people already live, as brownfields are often thoroughly address the problem of brownfield out of the tap as well as for treating air interspersed amongst communities, especially land, a scientific understanding of how to pollution, preventing harmful gases from being in cities or places where industry was once use resources that are already available in emitted into the atmosphere. If manganese located. “Soil itself is very complex and that intelligent new ways is needed. It has become oxides are recycled from the clean water is what we’re setting out to understand in this commonplace in modern society to regularly industry, it would prevent one of many highly project. We’ve set up a series of soil trials with dispose of potentially useful materials. useful resources from being wasted. A method different waste mineral amendments and the Some of the solutions to its longstanding for using recycled manganese oxides and other soils contain many different contaminants environmental problems may actually lie in minerals from these sources to decontaminate left from industry”, says Dr Karen Johnson, what it wastes. Ironically, a lesser known, yet brownfield land is currently being developed a hydrogeologist who is one of the lead potentially effective method for remediating and tested by IHRR´s ROBUST (Regeneration researchers on ROBUST. contaminated brownfield land is in some of of Brownfield Using Sustainable Technologies) Johnson and her research team are interested the mineral wastes that are discarded from research project in collaboration with the in using minerals from WTRs to treat the clean water industry known as Water Wolfson Research Institute and funded contaminated areas of land known as ‘cocktail Treatment Residuals (WTRs). by the Engineering Physical Science sites’ that have a mixture of organic wastes, Research Council. Manganese, iron and aluminium oxides left including petrol, heavy oil and diesel fuel, from filtration processes used to produce ROBUST is dedicated to developing new ways but also metals like lead. This is because clean drinking water have the potential to to decontaminate brownfield land sustainably manganese oxide and other minerals can act decontaminate brownfield land cheaply and using manganese oxides and other recycled as a ‘defence mechanism’ within the soil that allows it to render a range of different effectively. Manganese oxide in particular minerals from WTRs, along with developing contaminants inert. This is promising for forms a large part of the soil’s natural defence advanced methods for detecting contaminants regenerating former industrial sites because mechanism against pollution and is a mineral in the soil using terahertz radiation (see Figure they often have a mix of different contaminants which is present in the soil already. It is 1) and evaluating the long-term effectiveness present in the soil. In order to test the effects often used in fertiliser and even in dietary of the technology using computational these minerals have on contaminated soil from supplements. What makes manganese oxides modelling of the land (see Figure 2). It is also brownfield sites, special containers known as attractive for decontaminating brownfield working alongside communities that live near ‘lysimeters’ (see Figure 3) are used to measure land is that they are able to transform petrol brownfields in North East England in order to the quality of water that passes through the and other industrial wastes into harmless understand their perspective on the risks posed soil. These trials will then help determine how by-products. These chemical compounds that by contaminated land and involving them in suitable waste minerals are for treating different occur naturally in the soil have the unique developing ways to help regenerate it. kinds of contaminants in soil. CONTINUED > INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

Using ‘wastes’ petrol. Some minerals seem to work better into the vacant sites of the manganese than others at treating specific contaminants. but it’s a strong immobilisation”, she said. to treat waste land According to Johnson and Finlay, iron oxide Finlay is currently working with Northumbrian WTRs could be the key to providing effective, does particularly well at adsorbing arsenic, Water to collect samples of water treatment readily available ecological methods for but in combination with manganese oxide regenerating brownfield land, but how are which can convert toxic forms of arsenic into residuals to see if there is a difference between these ‘wastes’ actually able to treat soil with non-harmful forms, the minerals could actually the mineral contents of residuals at different a large range of contaminants that have been have a synergistic effect on contaminated soil. times of the year. “The aim of the research is in place for years, even decades? There is a “On one hand there could be some competition to find out what else the water treatment wide spectrum of contaminants present in effects and on the other they could all be residuals are good at locking up and testing it brownfield sites formerly used by industry. The working together so that is something we are with real contaminated soil to see if it works”, North East of England was once a well-known really interested in finding out”, says Finlay. says Finlay. “It’s so important to find simple, centre of the coal mining industry. Many of its Johnson says manganese controls many low-cost techniques that can be used to former industrial sites have been reduced to biogeochemical reactions so it could be that clean up these sites and bring them back into little more than wasteland carrying levels of we don’t need that much manganese to reduce beneficial use, because otherwise they’re just contamination far above national standards. contaminants present in the soil. But how left”, she said. “Brownfield land is a really important issue in does manganese oxide actually work? the North East, but it is also overlooked. There Biogenic manganese oxides, like those in Another important reason for discovering are often a lot of brownfield sites lying around the WTRs, have a nanocrystalline structure, long-term, ecological, cost-effective solutions as stagnant, barren wastelands and they are meaning that from the outside it appears for treating brownfield is that many developing often eye sores or attract unwelcome attention”, amorphous, but upon close inspection at the countries undergoing industrialisation are also says Nina Finlay, a researcher on ROBUST who nanoscale it is ordered giving it a number of running into problems with brownfield land. is doing her PhD on the effects of WTRs on unique abilities for absorbing contaminants. “Even though ROBUST is definitely a project contaminants in soil. It is able to absorb metals because it has a focused on North East England we would like Minerals from WTRs do one of two things to number of vacant sites where positively charged to see the methods used in developing countries, contaminants in the land: they either adsorb manganese ions are missing giving it an overall mainly because they often have more brownfield them completely, making them stick to the negative charge. Toxic metals like lead have a surface of the material, which prevents them positive charge so manganese oxides are able than us. Fortunately, countries like South from moving through the soil, or oxidise them, to swallow them up. “It’s a slow process”, says Africa, China and India also have a lot of breaking down organic contaminants such as Johnson, as it takes time for the lead to move manganese oxides”, says Johnson.

Land, community and health One of the biggest reasons for regenerating brownfield land is to improve the environment for existing communities that live near former industrial sites and to create new communities on brownfield sites. This also involves engaging with the people who are likely to benefit the most from applying sustainable methods for regenerating brownfield. “Previously, there haven’t been any remediation techniques available to councils that are cost effective”, says Johnson. Brownfield regeneration may not only improve the health of the land, but also the health of the people who live on it by making them feel better about their local environment.

Former industrial sites pock marking the landscapes that people call home can affect different aspects of their health. In former coalfield communities in North East England, many people suffer from debilitating long-term illness. While the direct cause(s) of illness amongst people who live near former coalfields is not known, a sense of hopelessness as well as socioeconomic inequality as a result of joblessness pervades many of these areas. Like water, land that is free of contamination appears essential to good physical, social and mental health.

Prime Minister David Cameron’s government has cut over 1,300 pages from the UK’s National Planning Policy Framework.

This is an opportunity for researchers who government interference, however, as the David Cameron strongly defends changes are interested in the physical and social law currently stands it seems that any land to the NPPF claiming that it will give local aspects of how the environment affects developments could be approved, making it communities more of a say in how planning community health. quite controversial. The National Trust criticised is run. But if an enticing financial incentive “People have looked at the association between the bill for not prioritising brownfield land for is given by developers to councils, what is green space and health, but not specifically development as government has done in the preventing them from say building on any brownfield and previously used land and well- past. They argue that the UK’s greenbelt could greenbelt they wish that could be legally being”, says Dr Steve Robertson, a Senior be in danger because developers may prefer to developed under the new planning provisions? Researcher on ROBUST who is working on soil develop land that has not been previously used This is why if councils are already taking sole remediation techniques as well as researching or that has contamination. responsibility for planning permissions for the social impacts of brownfield land on The UK government has cut over 1,300 brownfield land in their respective counties community health. “Land is clearly important pages of planning guidance from the National they need tools for redeveloping it themselves. to communities. If it is seen as waste or However, some councils throughout England Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) reducing it derelict land and is sitting in the middle of your already have plans to build new homes on to a mere 52 pages. Conservation groups and community it tells people ‘we’re not building greenbelt including Durham County Council, communities alike are concerned that vast areas new supermarkets or housing estates because which intends to build 3,550 homes on of the UK’s greenbelt and rural landscape will no one wants to build here’”, he said. formerly protected countryside. Newcastle be invaded by housing developments. Kirklees upon Tyne and Gateshead plan to build 9,700 Many communities throughout the world that Council in Yorkshire, for example, plans to homes on greenbelt. If brownfield land is to live in rural, urban or suburban environments build a total of 25,400 new homes by 2028, live with what is left from an industrial age be preferred for development in the future with 2,500 of them to be built on greenbelt. that has been passed on to other parts of the then new methods for genuine sustainable The Campaign to Protect Rural England and world that were once untouched by modern development are needed. the Kirklees Environment Partnership withdrew technological development. In the UK, laws from the group developing the proposals Low-cost, environmentally sustainable governing the use of brownfield and other kinds accusing the council of ‘lack of transparency’. remediation techniques could likely play a of land for development by communities are large role in the future for empowering local Since the new NPPF has become law in April, beginning to change. It may mean that local communities to take back contaminated land the fear is that developers will bribe councils authorities will be able to have more control as planning policy changes over time. The into developing land leaving little room for over the land around them that could lead to methods and technologies being developed community influence to decide where and how some improvements in regenerating land and by ROBUST may not only make available new community health, but in some cases seems housing should be implemented. But Planning ways to remediate brownfield land, but serve more likely to hand over more power to land Minister Greg Clark argues that Clause 167 of as an exemplar for how science, environmental developers to influence councils. the Localism Bill requires that brownfield and sustainability and community initiatives can poor quality land always be considered before According to the new Localism Bill recently work together. passed in the House of Commons, UK government other kinds of land for development, such as will allow communities to approve development greenbelt or farmlands. According to Section without requiring normal planning permissions. 106 of the NPPF, developers are already You can keep up to date on the progress of This could mean that communities can get to allowed to sway communities into accepting the ROBUST project by visiting its website work right away in regenerating and developing developments by offering to build something at www.robustdurham.org.uk. brownfield land without national or even local for the council. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Older people needing health and social care The pattern of extreme weather events is likely (CCRA) draws attention to the importance of depend on help from their family, friends to change throughout England over the next planning ahead for the effects of a changing and health and social care staff or volunteers 30 years due to climate change. Preparing for climate in the UK over the coming decades. alongside more formal provisions. Also future events related to extreme weather, such While reducing C0 emissions in order to 2 essential is infrastructure such as roads, as floods and heatwaves, as well as continuing mitigate climate change is very important, so electricity and water supplies, and access to risks of coldwaves, is essential for human too is action to adapt to changes in climate that facilities such as hospitals, clinics, dispensaries adaptation to a changing climate. Modifying are now inevitable. We expect to see changes in and community centres. The BIOPICCC project infrastructure responsible for the care of older the pattern of extreme weather events (such as involves researchers from Durham and Heriot- people (age 65+) is important because they heatwaves and coldwaves) and related hazards Watt Universities, working with local authorities often need to use services and also this age such as flooding. Climate change research helps group is projected to increase relatively rapidly in England to inform planning for older us to understand these changes and develop over the coming decades. appropriate measures for preparation and people’s care facilities and the infrastructure adaptation to extreme weather events. Health that underlies them. The project is part of a Projections for demographic and climate and social care planners, for example, are programme of linked studies funded by the UK change suggest that the effect of future trends already working to make health and social care Engineering and Physical Sciences Research will vary across different parts of England. The more resilient to climate change. Their task is Council to examine Adaptation and Resilience project has mapped the expected distribution to ensure that key services for groups such as to a Changing Climate (ARCC). of older people across England by 2031 using vulnerable older people and their carers are population data from the Office for National maintained as well as possible during periods The project benefits from the special capacity Statistics, to show where the oldest and of extreme weather. in IHRR to combine knowledge and research potentially most ‘vulnerable’ population will methods from different disciplines to show To help with this process the project Built grow fastest and be most concentrated. Using how local adaptation over the medium term Infrastructure for Older People’s Care in the latest available projections for trends in can help to allay the impacts of environmental Conditions of Climate Change (BIOPICCC), is temperature and flood hazard we have also working closely with the public, private and change. Although it is focussed on England, mapped geographical patterns of ‘hazard’ for voluntary sections in the UK. We are helping this research also has international implications heatwaves, coldwaves and floods. These maps to organise knowledge about the service needs for assessing, communicating and mitigating help us identify areas where forward planning in local communities and identify services and extreme weather events (e.g. floods and is especially important to adapt and build supporting infrastructures which are most likely to heatwaves) caused by climate change resilience in services and infrastructure for be disrupted due to extreme weather in the future. around the world. older people’s care. 25

FIG 1. Percentage increase in the number of especially if local authorities do not have plans and heatwave events per year between baseline resources in place to cope with them. Studies have Further Information (1961-1990) and 2030s reported excess mortality and increased health and Oven, K., Curtis, S., Reaney, S., (Data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator social care service use among older people during Riva, M., Stewart, M., Ohlemuller, (Version 2) under the medium emissions scenario). extended coldwaves. R., Dunn, C., Nodwell, S., There is no fixed definition of a ‘heatwave’. For Dominelli, L.. Holden, R. (2012). this study we considered the sorts of conditions FIG 3. The annual probability of flooding ‘Climate change and health that tend to increase the risk of health problems around the 2050s and social care: defining future among older people. We defined a heatwave event (Source: The UK Government’s Foresight Flood and hazard, vulnerability and risk for as three or more days in succession that are hotter Coastal Defence Project, Environment Agency, 2004). infrastructure systems supporting than usual, with maximum temperatures at a older people’s health care in level that will occur only five percent of the time. For flooding, we adopted the definition used in the Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence England.’ Applied Geography, Since the definition is relative to prevailing average 33: 16-24. temperatures expected in the future, it theoretically Project (Environment Agency, 2004), the annual makes some allowance for future adaption to heat probability of inundation. This definition therefore www.sciencedirect.com/science/ among the older population and modification of includes relatively minor floods which may disrupt article/pii/S0143622811000956 built infrastructure, which may mitigate, to some critical infrastructure. The findings suggest that http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. extent, projected climate change effects on health. some areas are expected to experience an increase apgeog.2011.05.012 The findings suggest that the greatest likelihood of in flood hazard (both fluvial and coastal), in heat waves is expected to be in South and South particular, the South East, the East of England UK Climate Impacts Programme West England, while the East, North West, Yorkshire and the Yorkshire and Humber Region. and Humber are projected to experience an increase Founded to help coordinate in heatwave events compared to conditions now. FIG 4. Projected proportion of older people aged scientific research into the 85 years and over in local authority areas in 2031 impacts of climate change, UKCIP (Analysis based on 2006 sub-national population projections is based at the Environmental FIG 2. Percentage decrease in the number by age group at local authority area level. Source: Office for Change Institute at the University of coldwave events per year between baseline National Statistics, 2007). of Oxford. It helps organisations (1961-1990) and 2030s The research suggests that areas experiencing and businesses adapt to the (Data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator the most rapidly changing hazards often also unavoidable impacts of (Version 2) under the medium emissions scenario). have large and growing numbers of older people, climate change. We defined a coldwave as an event where the especially in the oldest age groups (85 years and www.ukcip.org.uk daily maximum temperature is 0°C or below for over). These areas include parts of the South East three or more consecutive days. Although these of England outside central London, and the East events are projected to become less common in of England. Many of these are rural and coastal Foresight Flood and the future, they are still likely to cause disruption, areas outside major urban agglomerations. Coastal Defence Project Environment Agency This government Foresight FIG 1. FIG 2. programme produced a report on the challenging and long-term vision for the future of flood and coastal defence for the UK. It is being used to inform policy and its delivery. www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/ projects/published-projects/flood- and-coastal-defence

The BIOPICCC project is FIG 3. Legend (probability) FIG 4. funded by the UK Government’s Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) as part of a programme on Adaptation and Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARCC). www.durham.ac.uk/geography/ research/researchprojects/biopiccc www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk/

See BIOPICCC Research Briefing The BIOPICCC project illustrates the need for the kinds of interdisciplinary work that IHRR promotes; 1 for further information on the geographers, health and social care experts, environmental scientists and engineers are all involved. In this hazard and vulnerability mapping: research we are also engaging with a range of partners outside the Universities, including Age UK, Defra, the Environment Agency, the Meteorological Office and the Health Protection Agency as well as a number of important partners with whom we are working in local authorities around the country. International experts in other countries are also advising the project. This underlines the significance for society as a whole of the agenda concerning how to adapt to climate change and the value of university research that connects these issues. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS SURVIVING THE STORM: REBUILDING AFTER CYCLONE SIDR IN BANGLADESH

A Saudi government sponsored house. The house in the background on the top right is owned by an elite, which is three times larger, but built at the same cost.

MD NADIRUZZAMAN reports on community housing struggles in southern Bangladesh after the Cyclone Sidr disaster

Terror of the Sidr’s Night On 15 November, the weather was pretty night: winds roaring like a ferocious monster, normal like any other typical monsoon day and trees crashing down; broken branches, In mid-November 2007, the coastal there was no sign of treacherous weather a few pieces of wood and other debris flying in communities around the Boleshwar River hundred miles down the coast. Even when the all directions. It seemed they had in Bangladesh were devastated by a gigantic weather worsened in the evening and turned to underestimated the warning. storm surge. In Gabtola, located in southern thunderstorms, they saw it as a normal tropical Bangladesh, only four houses out of thousands They were puzzled. Some people made their way storm similar to the ones they experience every withstood the storm. There was not a single to the cyclone shelter and many came back home year and stayed home. family who did not count a huge financial loss after being blocked by flying debris and uprooted in all three of my field sites. They were familiar Many of my respondents were in bed sleeping trees along the way. At Gabtola, those who reached with both cyclone and false cyclone alarms, or trying to sleep when the cyclone struck their the cyclone shelter in the first instance had to but never imagined it could be of such high village sometime after 10pm. People who were head back elsewhere as the shelter was locked, magnitude. still awake described similar things from that with the only key located several miles away. 27

When water started pouring into people’s homes they had no other choice but to seek safe shelter. They started running to the nearest big houses, cyclone shelters and other places in search of safety. They were again proved wrong when a gigantic water-wall crashed down on Gabtola. None of the big houses near the riverbank, within about 100 metres, had survived despite being inside the embankment. I had been to several spots where many people had perished together trapped inside large houses that collapsed. Inside a cemented single storied primary school 26 people drowned when water surged over the embankment and eventually flowed above the school’s rooftop. People who could make their way to cyclone shelters were apparently lucky. Those that failed had spent the whole night floating on the water by holding onto tree branches. The following morning people were surrounded by tens of thousands of dead bodies of their relatives and livestock along with the wreckage of their homes, trees and boats. They had no clothes other than the ones they had on, no food and no money. Cyclone Sidr had stripped them of everything. Salt water had contaminated drinking water ponds. Crops and seeds, fishing boats and nets were either destroyed or washed away. The cyclone indiscriminately ruined every single family at all of my field sites. The Southkhali Union[1] has suffered from a 709 human death ‘Right to housing’ in Bangladesh toll, which is one-fifth of the official total for the whole country. Gabtola, one of ten villages of Right to housing is one of the five basic For example, the Gabtola community have Southkhali Union, alone lost 381 people from human rights endorsed by the Constitution received housing from the government, the disaster. There were no major human of Bangladesh. The home happens to be donated by Saudi Arabia. For a 10x15 casualties in Sonatola Model Village, another an assured commodity right protected by square ft area and 9ft high house 41 tin one of my field sites in the same Union, far state law to every household. However, sheets and 8 concrete pillars were provided. inland and quite well protected by the while distributing housing materials to the The government involved external vendors Sundarbans from the South and the West. affected community, this constitutional right to buy tin sheets and make concrete pillars. seems to have been forgotten. At Gabtola, Although close to Gabtola, located in the middle A total of 62,875 Taka (approximately there were several dozen families living in of Boleshwar River, Mazer Char had only four £630) was allocated to build a house, small flimsy huts on the government-owned human deaths. In fact, three adjacent villages embankment that had lost their lands which includes a budget of 10,000 Taka of the Southkhali Union, all in the same line due to natural causes or socioeconomic (£100) for developing an earthen plinth along the Boleshwar River – North Southkhali, problems. Despite their homes being and installing a house on it. From this Gabtola and Bogi – accounted for more than destroyed by Cyclone Sidr, they came under construction cost, 6,500 Taka was given 90 percent of the total human loss in the whole the housing scheme only when they were to the recipient of the house and the rest Union. Human losses were mainly close to the able to purchase a small piece of land went to labour hired from outside, though riverbank. Other than significant differences inside the embankment at a much higher labour force was available locally. Moreover, in human death toll, all three sites experienced rate than the usual market price from the a substantial amount of my respondents, loss of their homes, livestock, assets and so on. land owners who were usually elites. These particularly those who are marginalised or When I went to visit my field sites two years after homestead lands were purchased using have no connections, gave their contacts a the Cyclone Sidr disaster, Sidr’s terror was still government aid money originally intended minimum of 1,000 Taka as bribe to keep visible to everyone who survived that nightmare. for income generating activities. None of their name on the recipient list. I was not the people in Sonatola Model Village have My research investigates how decisions quite convinced that bribing took place received any housing benefit nor have 24 about relief in Bangladesh are made during as every household received at least one households at Mazer Char because they live the aftermath of Cyclone Sidr. It reflects on house, but I did encounter several incidents implemented housing schemes, particularly on disputed lands owned by government. of bribing during my field research. in Gabtola, where I took the housing scheme In both cases housing was not granted in Communities expressed frustration over as a case study because it is the most visible accordance with their constitutional rights. the government’s housing scheme that aid product provided by government and Aid money, intended to rebuild devastated led to the abandonment of many houses. NGOs which has not only changed the landscape, communities has not only slipped into local but is also substantially important for explaining elites’ pockets, but has transferred outside different aspects of decisions governing relief aid. of local economies. CONTINUED > INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

Built to be abandoned A substantial amount of the housing budget The bureaucratic nature of the ‘relief’ went to vendors and builders and space mechanism in place, lack of accountability To give an idea of how this government was an issue as one house allocated to a and vigilance and eliminating the local housing project could help the communities single household (a household comprises community from hands-on participation has involved and be cost-effective, I explored the caused widespread dissatisfaction amongst same quality housing schemes implemented all members of a family whose meals are the beneficiaries and deprived them from by other agencies. Anecdotal estimates from cooked together) was not suitable for an receiving a house worth living in. local builders, tin sheet traders, elected entire family. People with little to no money local representatives and communities or voice in government complained about Not only do these houses have little value suggest a maximum of 35,000 Taka (267 squeezing into a small house while relatively for communities, but they also come with GBP) to build a house that is part of the affluent families’ unmarried sons were potential health risks. For example, tin government’s housing scheme. This is a very declared as separate households and received sheets keep the inside hot in the summer rough valuation however and there is a fair more houses. Finally, design of these houses and cold in the winter. Combining this with chance of it being undervalued by the local was severely criticised for being culturally poor ventilation, they are like small tin community as a whole. There is widespread insensitive and having no foresight in terms tombs that can increase heat-induced forms frustration over this housing scheme for of liveability. The problems in relation to of disease. These extreme hot and cold several reasons. Gabtola people were provided cultural sensitivity and liveability were conditions mainly expose toddlers to sickness with houses in the end. In fact, other NGOs seemingly shared by all the recipients of and disease, such as pneumonia, measles who provide housing, like Muslim Aid, CARE, the government housing scheme. and smallpox. However, people who can DSK, BRAC, Friendship, MCC and others, afford it have their homes rebuilt with wood The government houses were normally built had Gabtola as their top priority, but they or bamboo fenced walls all around and high were diverted to other villages, following a very poorly and were inadequate for people’s tin-roofs with a soft ceiling of bamboo fence, promise of a foreign diplomat of building needs. Therefore many recipients that had plywood, hardboard and so on underneath. a model village in the most affected area. rebuilt their homes abandoned them. For Some reused relief tin sheets and pillars, There were rumours of promises for them, budgeted construction costs for others left them abandoned or used them delivering much better quality houses, government relief houses (10,000 Taka as sheds for their livestock. Only those particularly more spacious ones with brick each) was simply a waste of money. who really cannot afford to rebuild their and cement walls, but the houses received There is a large discrepancy between homes are squeezing into the houses were far below expectations. the government and beneficiaries. government provided.

Abandoned government sponsored house in Bangladesh. 29

Inset: Abandoned house used as a cow shed. Below: Abandoned government sponsored houses ‘Build back better’? in Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh has been popularising the slogan ‘build back better’, since committing themselves to rebuilding Sidr’s ruins. In the case of their housing scheme, the slogan implies building stronger houses that can withstand future cyclones. If the government was right, it could bring prosperity to the communities of Sidr. But, if it fails, it could result in a massive loss of life. In a stormy situation every single tin sheet could become a spinning blade. Unfortunately, this grave scenario is likely because Cyclone Aila – which had one-third the strength of Sidr in terms of wind velocity and surge height – struck a few months after the housing programme was accomplished; it partially damaged every single house from this scheme. Thereafter, everybody under this scheme received a small grant for repairing their homes. Since these houses became vulnerable to a weak cyclone like Aila, can they withstand a super cyclone like Sidr? If not, are we inviting potentially new risks to the community?

During the last couple of decades, natural Dushtha Shasthya Kendra This approach had two impacts: it caused hazard events have increased dramatically and them to build with care while adding up their in 2004-05 climate-induced casualties have DSK (Dushtha Shasthya Kendra) is a national own tin sheets and other materials to extend increased by 18 percent in the world as a whole. NGO that followed a rather different approach their homes; and they were earning income for Statistical, satellite and observational data in helping people rebuild their homes from building their houses, which kept money inside ruin that was more inclusive of their needs. the community. They also completed a house suggest that both the intensity and magnitude They had a budget of 27,000 Taka per house, they were a part of from the very beginning of storms will increase in the future. Professor which was less than half of the government’s and do not have many complaints other than Bimal Kanti Paul, from the University of East budget. They informed the beneficiaries of the envying people who were aided by other NGOs Anglia, conducted a cyclone-induced injury survey budget deficit and asked their advice on how who provided cement floors, concrete walls on 132 people in 12 Sidr affected villages. Paul to accomplish the project with this financial and tin roofs. When I explained DSK’s housing later reported in an article in 2010 in the journal constraint. They also considered the issue of scheme to the UNO, the chief government Natural Hazards[2] that 55 percent of injuries extreme hot and cold conditions through the executive who oversees any governmental and use of excessive tin sheets and instead used non-governmental development activities within were from falling trees and 45 percent from bamboo-fenced walls using tin only for the top Upazila’s jurisdiction, he said, “Government flying debris. He also adds that 61.54 percent of roofs. They also maintained house plinth height has certain rules to follow and does not have structural collapse was due to trees crashing into above the last flood mark and clamped tin as much administrative and management houses, which caused more indoor injuries during flexibility as NGOs do”. In short, though sheets with deeply anchored concrete pillars, the Sidr event than outside. Taking into account every household at Gabtola had an official to withstand future cyclones. For assuring entitlement of 62,875 Taka, a substantial these findings, in the context of the government’s transparency, the DSK took their beneficiaries amount of their entitlement was compromised ‘build back better’ campaign these entirely to the market where they bought tin sheets at by sharing with vendors and builders and many tin-built homes will likely worsen the situation a bargain price. In the same way, they bought of them eventually abandoned the government if and when a cyclone occurs again. If those iron rods, cement and other building materials houses only because of bureaucratic red tape. to make concrete pillars. They mobilised houses could even survive through a strong About 4,000 houses were distributed under family members, relatives, neighbours and velocity wind and high water surge, would they this scheme, which really makes the financial other beneficiaries to help each other build be able to avoid collapsing from damage caused figure of their compromise a significant sum. their homes. by fallen trees? These findings need to be Thus, entitlement is not only backed by law, but also breached by it. But, does it pose any accounted for in government’s housing plan additional threat to future climatic disruptions? for the communities of Sidr.

1. Union, often expressed as UP, is the Union 2. Human injuries caused by Bangladesh’s cyclone Md Nadiruzzaman is a PhD candidate in the Dept Parishad which is the lowest tier of the Local sidr: an empirical study. Natural Hazards, Volume of Geography and the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Government structure in Bangladesh. 54, Number 2, 483-495, DOI: 10.1007/s11069- Resilience and is funded by the Christopher Moyes 009-9480-2 Memorial Foundation. He is supervised by Prof Peter Atkins and Prof Phil Macnaghten. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

Defining resilience is far from PUTTING A ‘FACE’ straightforward as it is ever changing ON RESILIENCE and evolving says DAVID DIVINE

How is resilience defined by its pioneers its economic resilience and social resilience and efficient manner, including through the and popularisers in the social sciences? describes abilities within human societies to preservation and restoration of its essential And what does it mean for how we use the adjust to change, particularly ‘to absorb basic structures and functions”[3]. term universally to describe the world around us? recurrent disturbances such as hurricanes My own perspective on resilience includes Social geographer Bernard Manyena states and floods so as to retain essential structures, the two prerequisites outlined by Luthar – [1] that resilience has its roots in the Latin word processes and feedbacks’ . adversity and response. The new state of being ‘resilio’, meaning ‘to jump back’. He also Psychologist Suniya Luthar, who studies consisting of the ingredients of the shock to the reminds us that there is dispute as to where vulnerability and resilience in young people, former system – the former system itself and the term was originally used: ecology, physics, in a valiant attempt to defend the construct the response of the former system to the shock psychology or psychiatry? He does however of resilience in the face of mounting concern – is where I wish to focus in terms of trying aver that most of the literature is of the view regarding its definitional opaqueness in to answer some of the outstanding questions that the study of resilience evolved from some studies, sets out to offer clarity but relating to resilience. the discipline of psychology and psychiatry regrettably does not help matters by The manifesting of resilience however in the 1940s and it is mainly accredited to defining resilience thus: identified is seen as something positively psychologists Norman Garmezy, Emmy Werner Resilience is operationally defined in this responding to the shock, although the nature and Ruth Smith. The term arose from studies volume, as a dynamic developmental process of that ‘positively responding,’ is as yet involving the exploration of the origins and reflecting evidence of positive adaptation unclear. What we appear to know is that development of physical and mental disorders despite significant life adversity. Resilience the nature of that resilience is episodic, in ‘at risk’ children of parents with identified is not believed to be a child attribute operating developmental, constantly changing depending physical and mental disorders, a history of in isolation; rather it is viewed as a phenomena, upon circumstances and questionably inter-parental conflict, poverty, perinatal a hypothetical construct, that must be inferred predictable. Whether one can prepare for a problems or a combination thereof. from an individual manifesting competent pattern of resiliency for a further shock to the However, ‘what it is’ is still a subject functioning despite significant adversity[2]. system, incorporating the lessons of the past, of considerable debate. What are its One is left even more perplexed about is subject to debate although the work amongst determinants? How can it be measured, resilience, with questions such as what researchers suggests that this is possible. maintained, and improved? How can it be determines the outcomes of resilience, The question of whether resiliency pathways predicted? Can we identify the ingredients who defines competent functioning; would – stepping stones – can be worked out into of it and help in interventions to prepare we recognise resilience if we tripped over it? the clouds of an unknown future is still people to manifest resilience in given trying How can we make the term useful? How can subject to debate. circumstances? we make the characteristics of it observable Perhaps we simply need to accept that Psychologist Ann S. Masten, who studies risk and amenable to measurement and being according to sociologist and social worker and resilience in childhood development, compared from study to study? Lena Dominelli: describes resilience as “a class of phenomena Luthar states however that two factors appear Resilience is a contested, eclectic, and characterised by good outcomes in spite of to be evident when the construct of resilience perhaps elastic term that has moved from its serious threats to adaptation or development”. is used: adversity – a shock to the system, accepted meaning in the physical sciences It begs the question of what constitutes whether human or natural – and a response as the capacity of materials to respond to ‘serious threats’ and ‘good outcomes’. The of the system to that shock, in order to deal stress, to the social sciences and the arts and UK’s Cabinet Office, in its Draft Strategic with it. humanities where this definition is often used National Framework on Community Resilience uncritically to manage crises. In the process, consultation document defines resilience as The responses can vary, there is no it has re-emerged as an active concept as the “The capacity of an individual, community predictability, the system can ‘adapt to’, capacity of systems, whether natural, human or system to adapt in order to sustain an succumb to, be strengthened or transformed or hybrid, to sustain themselves in the face acceptable level of function, structure, and by a shock, but one thing is certain and that of endogenous and exogenous shocks to an identity”. Community resilience is defined is regardless of the shock to the system, and existing state. in the same document as “Communities and regardless of the nature of the response of individuals harnessing local resources and the system, the system itself has changed The nature of that sustainability, the expertise to help themselves in an emergency, inexorably. It is new, not the same as before, ingredients of it, the origins of it, how it is in a way that complements the response of the a qualitatively different entity is now in maintained and developed, whether it can be emergency services”. Sociologist Betty Hearne existence, made so by the effects of the replicated, would we recognise it if we came Morrow in ‘Community Resilience: A Social shock and the response of the system, across it, is all still unclear. Justice Perspective’, develops this notion of melding into something qualitatively different. resilience further: There is a formal definition of resilience from

Physical resilience refers to the strength to the United Nations International Strategy For Disaster Reduction (ISDR) which is David Divine is a PhD candidate in the School of deal with an impact (such as the ability of a Applied Social Sciences. His research focuses on the being widely used at present: “The ability of house to withstand high winds or the physical experience of living in an orphanage and individual health of an individual to survive a disaster). a system, community or society exposed to resilience. He is supervised by Prof Lena Dominelli. The robustness and diversity of the economy hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and to survive and recover from a disaster defines recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely 31

1. Morrow, B.H. ‘Community Resilience: 2. Luthar, S.S. Resilience and Vulnerability, 3. United Nations International Strategy 4. Dominelli, L. 2011 (private A Social Justice Perspective, 2008, Adaptation in the Context of Childhood For Disaster Reduction (ISDR) communication with the author) Community and Regional Initiative Adversities. Cambridge University press, (CARRI) Research Report 4’ 2008 INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

Dave Petley and Brett Cherry review the harrowing landslide event that took place in 1966 in South Wales – the Aberfan Disaster. 33

In the years leading up to the landslide, water from the hillside had been a perennial problem for the people of Aberfan. Starting in 1949, and possibly earlier, a series of floods had affected the upper part of the town, causing damage and disruption, and leaving a legacy of a ‘slimy black deposit’ in its wake, which was almost certainly mine waste. The people of the town repeatedly wrote to the council and the National Coal Board asking for this problem to be addressed to no effect; it is ironic that in the aftermath of this disaster this flooding issue was solved through the construction of a simple culvert. The disaster itself occurred on 21st October 1966 at about 9:15am. The day was calm and sunny at 7:30am, when the team of men responsible for the dumping of mine waste on Tip 7 arrived for work. At the top The story of the Aberfan Disaster is seared By 1969, seven tips had been constructed. of Tip 7 they found that it had subsided by into the memories of a generation of people Tip 7, from which the disastrous landslide about three metres. The team had to send a in South Wales, and it remains a tragedy of developed, was started in 1958, and reached messenger down to report this information to huge proportions. Today, 45 years after the a height of about 40 metres. It contained the mine managers as the telephone was out 3 disaster, there is much to learn from the events about 230,000 m of waste. The material was of action as a result of the repeated theft of leading up to, and that occurred on, the day. transported to the tip on trams that were hauled the cable. A decision was taken by the mine Prior to the disaster, Aberfan was just another up an incline by a series of motors, before the managers to cease tipping at that location, small, Welsh coal mining village, located in waste was dumped on the tip by a crane. and an additional team was sent up to move the valleys of South Wales. Essentially the The Commission of Enquiry noted that when reason for the existence of the village lay in the tipping infrastructure back from the coal waste tips are concerned, “water is coal mining – it was founded shortly after the area of active movement. By the time they undoubtedly the root cause of most failures”. first excavations for the Merthyr Vale Colliery reached the top, the subsidence had further This was not a new finding – indeed it had in 1869. The village was formed primarily of developed, with another three metres of been known for at least 40 years – and 45 a close-knit community of miners and their movement being reported. years on it is still the case. families, but was sufficiently large to be The final, catastrophic collapse developed able to sustain both a primary and apparently spontaneously as an initially secondary school. rotational movement that rapidly transitioned into a flow. About 107,000m3 of material flowed down the hillside and into the village. Descriptions of the event from eye-witnesses bring home the suddenness and catastrophic nature of the landslide. Most witnesses

report a noise that sounded like a jet plane

passing low over the village; the witnesses Pictures from the post-war period show that This area of South Wales has a wet climate also describe a wave of debris, higher than the hills above the village were dominated (average rainfall is about 1500 mm per year), a house, moving fast and demolishing houses by a series of enormous spoil heaps. Dealing and the hillsides are marked by lines of springs. with the waste is a perennial problem in coal The presence of these springs on the hillslopes ‘like a pile of dominoes’. The landslide mining, which often generates large volumes above was noted on Ordnance Survey maps behaved like a liquid, but with twice the of dirty material that has little economic use. dating from the late 19th Century. Remarkably, density of water, sufficient to demolish In South Wales, as elsewhere, it was common some older tips at Aberfan built on springs or everything in its path. Some victims who to pile the waste close to the mine workings watercourses had previously failed – for example, escaped the main flow were struck and – in the case of Aberfan on the slopes above Tip 4 slipped in 1944, and Tip 5 had a large injured by flying debris. the village. bulge that was considered to be an indication By the time the landslide stopped, it had that it was unstable. Furthermore, just down Mining at Aberfan started in 1869; initially demolished Pantglas Junior School and the valley of Abercynon, a landslide developed the waste was dumped in tips on the slope 18 houses, and had seriously damaged in a tip in 1939 that buried a road to a depth of adjacent to the mine. However, as the volume nearly seven metres. And so, the arguments that the secondary school and many more of material increased, new tips were built on the events at Aberfan were unprecedented, or houses. A total of 144 people were killed, the slopes higher up the hillside. could not have been anticipated, cannot including 116 children. CONTINUED > be sustained. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS 35

Of these, 109 children mostly aged between The aftermath of the disaster The tribunal named nine members of the seven and ten years old, were killed in the board directly responsible for the event, and Immediately following the disaster a tribunal primary school, together with five of their specified in some detail how their actions led to was appointed to investigate the events leading teachers. It is a mercy that lessons in the the catastrophe. However, perhaps surprisingly up to the disaster at Aberfan. The tribunal secondary school did not start until 9:30, when seen from the perspective of modern found that the National Coal Board was entirely meaning that many of those children were still times, no-one was prosecuted for causing the responsible for failing to act to prevent the deaths of the 144 people and for the physical walking towards the building at the time of disaster[1]. Throughout most of the proceedings and social ruin of the community of Aberfan. the landslide. The eye-witnesses report that of the tribunal, the National Coal Board sought when the landslide stopped there was complete to deny responsibility, but by the end of the According to a 2000 report funded by the silence: for example a local hairdresser who proceedings the report notes that “however ESRC on the government response to the witnessed the landslide reported that “In that belatedly, it was conceded by the National disaster, senior officials of the NCB were silence you couldn’t hear a bird or a child”. Coal Board that the Aberfan Disaster stemmed not prosecuted because the UK government from their failure to initiate any policy with in the late 1960s and early 1970s “needed Immediately people flooded into the area from respect to the siting, control, inspection and their help in the ‘high politics’ of running far and wide to try to save the victims buried management of tips”. down the coal industry without provoking by the landslide, including miners from the a national strike”. colliery. News footage from that day shows The NCB was found to be at fault by the numerous pit workers in their colliery helmets tribunal for placing a tip on a site that had not Since the NCB was treated as if it were digging at the site of the school. However, been properly investigated. Evidence brought a government department, making them conditions were exceptionally difficult – the forward by residents of Aberfan revealed that pay the environmental or direct costs of the landslide mass had drained almost as soon as the spring underneath Tip 7 was far from disaster was considered to be unwise as it would have increased the governmental deficit, movement ceased, leaving a dense, cohesive ‘unknown’ as originally claimed by the Chair of which would then have to be recovered from mass that was difficult to excavate. the NCB, Lord Alfred Robens. The worker who reported the first sinking of Tip 7 on the day of general taxation. At the school site there was little room the disaster told the judge of the tribunal, Lord Furthermore, the report suggests that the to manoeuvre. The last living victim was Justice Edmund Davies, that “no one walking interests of the people of Aberfan simply did extracted before 11am, less than two hours on the mountain before Tip 7 was started could not have any sway over policymakers and after the landslide. fail to see the stream and the spring”, nor according to laws in place at the time relating did they require any surveying or engineering to corporate negligence, no regulatory offence expertise to see that the site was unsuitable was committed during the Aberfan Disaster for the tip in the first place. because no miners were killed. CONTINUED > INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

Psychosocial Effects of Disaster: Birth Rate in Since the accident, coal spoil tips have been Aberfan. British Medical Journal, 1975 treated as engineering structures requiring proper design and maintenance. A Derelict Land Unit was set up in Cardiff not long after the disaster to restore brownfield land, including former sites of collieries and land used by the coal industry. New ways to dispose of colliery spoils have also been developed.

Lessons learnt The dreadful calamity of the Aberfan landslide disaster remains perhaps the most poignant and memorable disaster in the UK since the Second World War. The combination of a failure of responsibility by the relevant authorities, the dreadful events in the moment of the landslide, the heroic but mostly futile rescue attempts, and the appalling behaviour of some parties in the aftermath of the disaster created an extraordinary mix from which there is much to learn. There are some positive legacies After the disaster, a fund was created that The Legacy of Aberfan of the disaster, most notably the dramatic attracted donations of £1,750,000 (equivalent The village of Aberfan continues to be improvements to the management of mine to about £30 million today), with money being profoundly affected by the disaster in wastes, but there is still much to do to ensure received in the form of more than 90,000 1966, despite the change in population that these lessons are learnt internationally. contributions from over 40 countries. This that accompanied the closure of the colliery. Since the Aberfan Disaster, there have been fund distributed the money in a number According to a psychiatric study that undertook a variety of studies on its aftermath from the of ways, including direct payments to the a follow-up of the disaster in 2003, many mental health of those who lived through the bereaved, the construction of a memorial, people who lived through the Aberfan Disaster disaster to the regulatory failure of government, repairs to houses, respite breaks for villagers continue to suffer regular bouts of post- which was the focus of a report funded by [2] and the construction of a community centre. traumatic stress. However, the majority of the ESRC released in 2000 . This report concluded that since the disaster took place, However, the fund itself attracted considerable survivors refused to participate in the study. UK policy of ‘making the polluter pay’ has controversy. In common with observations of large-scale a stronger foothold in government, and laws disasters in other locations, soon after the First, when the fund was created it did not relating to corporate negligence are more landslide the birth rate of Aberfan and Merthyr include any representatives from Aberfan attentive to victims than they were in the Vale increased dramatically, such that by 1972 itself; subsequently, after protests from the past. The findings show that preparation for villagers, five places through democratic it has been calculated that more additional disaster has improved since 1966 not due to election were created. children had been born than had been lost in loss of life, economic damage or more obvious the tragedy. This is a phenomenon known as Remarkably, no other members of the disaster impacts, but largely due to the fact that biosocial regeneration, which is a subconscious Emergency Planning had to find a new role fund were elected democratically. Second, response primarily by couples who had not lost after its loss of legitimacy in the Civil Defence in the aftermath of the disaster the NCB and a child in the disaster. programme and the end of the Cold War. The the Treasury refused to accept full liability, ESRC report concluded that political processes and thus to fund the removal of tips that The Aberfan Disaster also led to detailed in place during and after disasters provide the still loomed above the village. Lord Robens studies of the behaviour of mine waste, and in context for government response. claimed that it was too expensive to remove particular of its potential to undergo apparently Furthermore, governments must learn to never the tips, with an estimated cost of £3 million spontaneous catastrophic collapse. Research underestimate the length and depth of trauma pounds. In response, the community of into this mechanism continues today, but sadly suffered by survivors of disasters like the mine Aberfan formed a Tip Removal Committee to mine waste failures remain common, especially waste landslide at Aberfan. Post-Traumatic actively seek out contractors for estimates in less developed countries. For example, in Stress Disorder (PTSD) was found to be high in September 2008 a mine waste landslide struck to remove the tips. Eventually the tips were victims of the Aberfan Disaster, even decades the village of Taoshi in the Shaanxi province of removed by the NCB, but using £150,000 that after it took place[3]. It is of utmost importance China, killing at least 128 villagers. Of course, Lord Robens appropriated from the disaster that the knowledge gained from experiencing in the UK the disaster led to major changes fund. Understandably, this caused long-term and responding to past disasters feeds into resentment in the community. In 1997, this to the ways in which mine wastes are managed, current and future regulations to prevent sum (but without interest) was repaid to the and there has been no repeat of this dreadful failings of policy in addressing the needs fund by the UK government. accident. of vulnerable populations to large-scale physical hazards.

1. Report of the Tribunal Appointed to Inquire into 2. Mclean, Iain. Corporatism and regulatory failure: 3. Johnes M. ‘Aberfan and the Management of Trauma’. the Disaster at Aberfan on October 21st, 1966. government response to the Aberfan disaster. ESRC. Disasters, 24(1):1-17 H.M.S.O. 1967 Available online: http://www.esrc.ac.uk/my-esrc/ grants/R000222677/ INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS 37

Campaigns for funding science in the UK Focusing on the development of research The findings of the Strategic Science project are becoming increasingly innovative programmes in nanotechnology and synthetic suggest the challenge facing social scientists and strategic in their approach, says biology, the results of the project reveal that in an increasingly strategic policy context MATTHEW KEARNES while research councils and other funding and highlight the importance of a thorough agencies are increasingly taking an active investigation of how new research programmes In recent years the scientific establishment role in shaping new research programmes – and questions are defined. A number of has been through something of a theological by delineating key research terms, building social scientists are making important steps agendas and working to establish a core in this direction – developing new modes moment. With the combined effects of research community in emerging fields – a set of engagement and collaboration with the continuing public disquiet about the trajectory of underlying policy narratives about the power natural and physical scientists. For example, of technological change and a policy context of science to produce social progress continues in the area of synthetic biology, an ESRC- that has increasingly emphasised strategic to shape institutional practice. funded network of social scientists (www. investments in research, scientists and genomicsnetwork.ac.uk/) are working to build a scientific organisations have begun, perhaps The results of this research suggest that this ‘post-ethical, legal, and social issues’ approach ‘definitional work’, though often couched in like never before, to publicly defend the to the life sciences that explores the ways that technical terms, typically involves questions of benefits of fundamental research and scientific fields are constituted and sustained. fundamental societal significance. For example, ‘basic science’. This work will be an important step in the emerging field of synthetic biology is reimagining the roles that social scientists may In recent months these efforts have crystallised increasingly defined as the rational design of play in critical collaboration with their natural in a series of high-profile and effective ‘biologically-based parts’, ‘novel devices and campaigns to promote the vitality of science systems’ and the redesign of ‘existing natural and physical science colleagues. to the future economic prosperity of the UK. biological systems’. This definition shows the Responding to similar concerns, UK research- desire to make the ‘engineering of biology Dr Matthew Kearnes is based at the University of funding bodies have launched a series of easier and more predictable’, and is tied to a New South Wales, Australia. His research at IHRR focused on public perception of emerging science strategic and cross-disciplinary research range of expected applications in areas such and technologies including nanotechnology and programmes. Covering areas of research as as biofuels and pharmaceuticals. In turn, this synthetic biology along with science and governance. diverse as environmental change, energy definitional work has the effect of tying the and lifelong health, these initiatives field to a largely unquestioned future. Self-replicating synthetic bacteria encapsulate a new argument about the value (J. Craig Venter Institute). of research in the UK; that interdisciplinary and collaborative research can, through careful programme design, be brought to bear on the ‘grand challenges’ of the day. But these initiatives represent a challenge for social scientists and the broader relationship between science and society. They focus attention on the ways in which these grand societal challenges are defined and framed and the kinds of collaborative roles that social scientists are increasingly taking in interdisciplinary research teams. Will this strategic approach, that seeks to encourage research on cross-cutting challenges, be framed solely in technical terms, as requiring scientific rather than social innovations? Will this approach represent an opportunity to open up innovation processes to a wider array of disciplinary perspectives and diverse viewpoints?

Against this backdrop, the results of a recently completed ESRC-funded project entitled: ‘Strategic Science: Research Intermediaries and the Governance of Innovation’, show the gravity of this challenge. INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | FOCUS | PERSPECTIVES | BIOS

Alex A large part of Alex’s research is devoted (which are often hazards in themselves) past, present and future climate to understanding how earthquakes that pull mountains back down again. conditions. This research investigates Densmore affect the landscape, creating a range This requires: looking at the landscape to how groundwater used for irrigation in the of secondary hazards which lie at the find evidence of past earthquakes, finding region is dependent upon local geology, core of the IHRR programme ‘When the out where and how active the faults are, such as the presence or absence of Shaking Stops’. His research also has and determining when the most recent buried river channels. Predicted changes to do with the way mountain ranges are earthquakes took place. While searching in the Indian monsoon over the next 50- built and destroyed – that is, with the for signs of earthquakes that occurred 100 years influenced by climate change interactions between earthquakes and in the past, Alex is also researching the could have serious, but largely unknown active tectonic processes that create high environmental impacts of groundwater effects on this critical resource. topography and the erosional processes extraction in northwestern India under

As the director of Frontier Knowledge Many of the projects fostered through Much of her research fits well with the Sarah programme at IHRR, Sarah is generally IHRR bring together experts in the interdisciplinary model that IHRR is aiming Curtis interested in how different projects led by humanities, social and physical sciences. to encourage. For example, environmental IHRR researchers break with convention This produces novel ways to think about impacts, including climate change, play in order to think in new ways about the ‘whole systems’ that are important for a large role in human health and can also hazard, risk and resilience. IHRR aims to hazard and risk and for vulnerability and affect the operation of health and social care bring together researchers from different resilience. Sarah’s own research focuses services that we need to use to maintain our disciplines to find original ways to study on the links between human health and health. This is the focus of one of IHRR’s many of the complex problems the world the social and physical environment. It core research projects, Built Infrastructure faces today because no single discipline shows how and why places are important for Old People’s Care in Conditions of provides sufficient expertise to tackle for our health as well as our individual Climate Change (BIOPICCC). Sarah is issues of hazard, risk and resilience in characteristics and the medical care one of two principal investigators leading a comprehensive way. we use. BIOPICCC.

Katie Katie is a geographer working at the Katie’s findings led her to re-evaluate supporting older people’s health and interface of physical and social science, the roles of both local and outside social care delivery in the UK. She has Oven with an interest in disaster risk reduction scientific knowledge in landslide risk also continued her work in Nepal as in the context of geophysical and reduction. Since completing her PhD part of a NERC/ESRC-funded scoping hydrometeorological hazards. Her doctoral in 2009, Katie has been working as study: ‘Increasing Rural Resilience research investigated the vulnerability a Post-Doctoral Research Associate in Seismically Active Areas’. Working and resilience of rural communities to on the multidisciplinary BIOPICCC with local partners, the study sought to landslides and debris flows in the Nepal (Built Infrastructure for Older People’s develop a conceptual and methodological Himalaya. The study examined local Care in Conditions of Climate Change) approach for combining local, practitioner perceptions and understandings of project funded by the EPSRC. The and scientific knowledge for effective mass movement hazards and the study investigates the impact of extreme risk reduction in the context of seismic- factors giving rise to the occupation weather events (heatwaves, coldwaves related hazards. of landslide-prone areas. and floods) on the built infrastructure

Folarin Folarin is a legal scholar on Work financial crises. Folarin’s research Such factors include excessively Package 2 (WP2) of the Tipping interests lie in financial services loose monetary policies in the Akinbami Points project: ‘Financial Crisis in the regulation, banking law, company law run-up to the financial crisis, poor Banking Sector: Past and Present’. and regulatory theory. His research for corporate governance within banks WP2 is multidisciplinary and involves Tipping Points involves studying how and other financial institutions, and research on law, finance and history. and why banking and other financial the failure of regulators to supervise It compares current and historical crises occur in the UK and other the financial industry and maintain events through the lenses of finance parts of the world, with a particular the overall stability of the financial and governance history. Identifying the focus on the global financial crisis system. This research offers the similarities and differences between of 2007-2009. This work is carried potential to significantly improve our past and present financial crises out primarily through investigation, understanding of the global financial fosters a deeper understanding of the discussion and analysis of several system and the critical transitions financial system and helps identify factors which contributed to and that can occur within it. tipping points that contribute to exacerbated the global financial crisis.

Sim The key question Sim is trying to floods are not the only type of hazard ‘risk-based’ approaches. The model Sim answer in his research at IHRR is ‘how produced by catchments, low flows and has developed simulates the movement Reaney do catchments transform rainfall into droughts are equally important. Also, of water through the combined hillslope hazards?’ A catchment is an area of land the nutrients and pollutants carried and river channel system. It is currently that collects all the water (e.g. rain, by the water affect the ecology and its being used to investigate the projected melting snow or ice) that converges into usage. Sim is researching these issues impacts of climate change on catchment a single point and joins another water using a combination of both field-based behaviour, the hydrological connectivity body such as a river, lake or sea. Rainfall measurements and environmental dynamics of small catchments and the occurs across large areas and this water simulation modelling. He does two impacts of rural land management on moves through a range of pathways and types of modelling: (1) fully distributed, the generation of flooding and low a series of stores to potentially produce a physically-based, catchment hydrological flow events. hazard, such as a flood event. However, models and (2) reduced complexity, Institute of Hazard, InstituteInstitute ofof Hazard,Hazard, RiskRisk andand Resilience,Resilience, DurhamDurham UniversityUniversity Risk and Resilience ScienceScience Site,Site, SouthSouth Road,Road, Durham,Durham, DH1DH1 3LE,3LE, UKUK www.dur.ac.uk/ihrrwww.dur.ac.uk/ihrr

Introduction The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) is harnessing the capacityInstitute of researchers of Hazard, from acrossInstituteInstitute Durham ofof Hazard,Hazard, RiskRisk andand Resilience,Resilience, DurhamDurham UniversityUniversity Risk and Resilience University to make a differenceInstitute of Hazard, to Risk how and Resilience weScienceScience live with Site, Site, SouthSouth Road,Road, Durham,Durham, DH1DH1 3LE,3LE, UKUK emerging hazards and risks.Durham IHRR University is a nerve centre for Science Site, South Road, www.dur.ac.uk/ihrrwww.dur.ac.uk/ihrr innovative, interdisciplinaryDurham, approaches DH1 3LE, UK to hazard and risk research in the UK andwww.durham.ac.uk/ihrr throughout the world. We are championing key research programmes in hazards, Introduction vulnerability and resilience. The Institute operates through a growing array of research projects and externally-funded Introduction The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Our research aims to improvefellowships. human responses It is involved in policy engagement in risk and (IHRR) is harnessing the capacity of researchers to both age-old hazards such as volcanoes, The Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) is from across Durham University to make a earthquakes, landslideshazard and floods debates as well as across much of the globe, strategy harnessing the capacity of researchers from across Durham difference to how we live with emerging hazards the new and uncertaindevelopment risks of climate change, with industry and wider stakeholders and also University to make a difference to how we live with and risks. IHRR is a nerve centre for innovative, surveillance, terror, bankingresearch and emerging consultancy. Our research aims to improve human interdisciplinary approaches to hazard and risk technologies. It also focuses particularly on the emerging hazards and risks. IHRR is a nerve centre for responsesresearch into the both UK and age-old throughout hazardsthe world. such natureas volcanoes, of hazard, risk andearthquakes, vulnerability in thelandslides and floods as well as the new and innovative, interdisciplinary approaches to hazard and risk uncertainWe are championing risks of key climateresearch programmes change, in surveillance,developing world. terror, The Institute banking aims to develop and emerging technologies. It also focuses research in the UK and throughout the world. We are particularlyhazards, vulnerability on the and nature resilience. of The hazard, Institute riskradical and new vulnerability insight with regard in to the hazard developing and risk. world. The Institute aims to develop championing key research programmes in hazards, radicaloperates new through insight a growing with array regard of research to hazardBy and adopting risk. an approachBy adopting which directly an approachengages which directly engages policymakers, projects and externally-funded fellowships. It is policymakers, local communities and other vulnerability and resilience. The Institute operates through localinvolved communities in policy engagement and otherin risk and appropriate hazard appropriate stakeholders stakeholders in in the co-production co-production of of knowledge, the Institute aims to a growing array of research projects and externally-funded developdebates innovative across much of policy the globe, and strategy to increaseknowledge, social thecapacity Institute aimsfor toreducing develop innovative vulnerability and harm. fellowships. It is involved in policy engagement in risk and development with industry and wider stakeholders policy and to increase social capacity for reducing and also research consultancy. vulnerability and harm. hazard debates across much of the globe, strategy Focus development with industry and wider stakeholders and also The Institute is developing three areas of activity through interdisciplinary research, allowing problems to be research consultancy. Our research aims to improve human framed in different ways and new theoretical approaches and understandingsresponses to be developed to both age-oldin relation hazards to existing such as volcanoes, earthquakes, landslides and floods as well as the new and problems. uncertain risks of climate change, surveillance, terror, banking and emerging technologies. It also focuses Focus particularlyEvents on the nature of hazard, risk and vulnerability in the developing world. The Institute aims to develop Hazards: how hazards are produced, particularly environmental hazards and notably landslides, floods, droughts, radical newHOW insightTO BUILD withA DAM regard AND SAVE to hazard and risk. By adopting an approach which directly engages policymakers, volcanoes,The Institute sea is developing level threerise areas and of activity earthquakes; Vulnerabilities but and Resilience:also hazards the vulnerabilities that emerge in surprising ways, such as through interdisciplinary research, allowing and resilience of communities that have to live local communitiesCULTURAL HERITAGE and other appropriate stakeholders in the co-production of knowledge, the Institute aims to socio-technologicalproblems to be framed in and different financial ways and newhazards. with hazards, notably those communities whose develop innovative policy and to increase social capacity for reducing vulnerability and harm. theoretical approaches and understandings to be vulnerabilities arise from poverty, changes in life A jointly run interdisciplinary workshop Vulnerabilitiesdeveloped in relation toand existing Resilience: problems. thecourse vulnerabilities and social isolation, and and whereresilience these in of communitiesconsidering howthat to minimise have theto impact live ofwith isolation and combination reduce resilience. dams on cultural heritage. hazards,Hazards: notablyhow hazards those are produced, communities particularly whose vulnerabilities arise from poverty, changes in life course and social FocusDurham University Department of Archaeology isolation,environmental and hazards where and these notably in landslides, isolation andFrontier combination Knowledge: innovative reduce and creativeresilience. ways D110, Dawson Building DH1 3LE floods, droughts, volcanoes, sea level rise and of learning to live with the pervasive nature of The Institute is developing three areas of activity through interdisciplinary research, allowing problems to be 6-7th July 2012 Frontierearthquakes; Knowledge: but also hazards thatinnovative emerge in and creativehazard and risk,ways through of newlearning ways of risk to learning, live withframed the in pervasive different nature ways and of hazardnew theoretical and approaches and understandings to be developed in relation to existing risk,surprising through ways, new such waysas socio-technological of risk learning, and newnew forms forms of risk of sharing risk and sharing new ways andof risk new ways ofFor morerisk information forecasting. or to book a place, financial hazards. forecasting. problems.please visit: https://sites.google.com/site/ Hazards:saveculturalheritage how hazards are produced, particularly environmental hazards and notably landslides, floods, droughts, Examples of Current Research Activities volcanoes, sea level rise and earthquakes; but also hazards that emerge in surprising ways, such as Landslides: Exploring both the spatial and temporal distribution socio-technologicalof and financial hazards. landslides, and the impacts that they cause (Figure 1). Examples of current research activities Vulnerabilities and Resilience: the vulnerabilities and resilience of communities that have to live with Secondary Hazards: Examining the controls on secondary earthquakehazards, notably those communities whose vulnerabilities arise from poverty, changes in life course and social phenomena,Landslides: Exploring particularly both the spatial landslides and temporal and Tipping river Points: basin Researching changes, the physical in spaceand social andisolation, and where these in isolation and combination reduce resilience. distribution of landslides, and the impacts that complexity of so-called ‘tipping points’ in past time,they while cause (Figurecollaborating 1). with social scientistsclimate systems, to explore historical waysand contemporary these hazards Frontier Knowledge: innovative and creative ways of learning to live with the pervasive nature of hazard and affect communities in developing countriesbanking in crises,order knowledge to build diffusion resilience. and Secondary Hazards: Examining the controls on mathematics. risk, through new ways of risk learning, new forms of risk sharing and new ways of risk forecasting. Climatesecondary earthquakeAdaptation: phenomena, Understanding particularly the diverse array of influences climatelandslides change and river has basin on changes, species in space including and humans,Resilience: Developing especially innovative in the ways preparation to build time, while collaborating with social scientists to resilience in communities to the hazards that they Examples of Current Research Activities of infrastructureexplore ways these hazards needed affect for communities vulnerable in groups,face, ranging such from threatsas older from naturalpeople. disasters developing countries in order (e.g. earthquakes in the Himalayas) through to Landslides: Exploring both the spatial and temporal distribution of Tippingto build resilience.Points: Researching the physicalacute and social social impacts. complexity of so-calledlandslides, and the impacts that they cause (Figure 1). ‘tipping points’ in past climate systems, historical and contemporary banking Climate Adaptation: Understanding the diverse Secondary Hazards: Examining the controls on secondary earthquake crises,array knowledge of influences climate diffusion change andhas on mathematics.species including humans, especially in the preparation of phenomena, particularly landslides and river basin changes, in space and Resilience:infrastructure neededDeveloping for vulnerable innovative groups, such ways to build resilience in communitiestime, to while collaborating with social scientists to explore ways these hazards as older people. the hazards that they face, ranging from threats from natural disasters (e.g.affect communities in developing countries in order to build resilience. earthquakes in the Himalayas) through to acute social impacts (such as the Figure 1 loss of major industrial employment in County Durham, UK . Climate Adaptation: Understanding the diverse array of influences climate change has on species including humans, especially in the preparation of infrastructure needed for vulnerable groups, such as older people. Tipping Points: Researching the physical and social complexity of so-called ‘tipping points’ in past climate systems, historical and contemporary banking crises, knowledge diffusion and mathematics. Resilience: Developing innovative ways to build resilience in communities to the hazards that they face, ranging from threats from natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes in the Himalayas) through to acute social impacts (such as the Figure 1 loss of major industrial employment in County Durham, UK . IHRR research Tipping points Climate change BIOPICCC Human health CALL FOR Geohazards Coffee growing SUBMISSIONS Cyclone Sidr Strategic science Interested in submitting to Hazard Risk Resilience? 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