ACCESS TO OPPORTUNITY 2014-2024: LAKETRAN’S 10 YEAR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION PLAN & COMPREHENSIVE OPERATIONAL PLANNING ANALYSIS
FINAL REPORT
JUNE 2013
Quality Assurance Review Certification
Client: Laketran Laketran 10 Year Public Transportation Plan and Comprehensive Operational Project: Planning Analysis
PB Project No: 21532A
Document(s)/Task(s) Reviewed: Final Report A Quality Assurance Review has been completed by the QA Reviewer(s) indicated below. The specific project document(s) and/or task(s) stated above were reviewed with the intention that the design and associated tasks regarding this project were undertaken in accordance with accepted engineering practices and requirements set forth by the Client. All work has been reviewed in regards to its technical soundness, ethical content, and cost effectiveness.
Project Manager Tim Rosenberger
Deputy Project Manager Tim Reynolds
Task Manager Tim Rosenberger
Tim Rosenberger 06/20/2013 Name (Print) Signed Date
Quality Assurance Reviewer
Larry Strange (Mp2 Planning) 06/19/2013 Name (Print) Signed Date
Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ...... 1 Chapter 2: Financial Problems Confronting Laketran ...... 9 Chapter 3: Financial Recovery Plan ...... 15 Chapter 4: Service Area Macro-Analysis ...... 19 Chapter 5: Service Area Micro-Analysis ...... 63 Chapter 6: Access to Opportunity ...... 111 Chapter 7: Financial Capacity ...... 133 Chapter 8: Recommendations ...... 149 Chapter 9: Levy Options ...... 191
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List of Figures Figure 1.1: Local Fixed Bus Route Network ...... 3 Figure 1.2: Commuter Express Route Network ...... 4 Figure 4.1: 2010 Population Density by TAZ ...... 20 Figure 4.2: 2010 Employment Density by TAZ ...... 22 Figure 4.3: 2012 Total Employees ...... 23 Figure 4.4: 2012 Employees by Industry...... 24 Figure 4.5: 2010 Population + Employment Density by TAZ ...... 26 Figure 4.6: 2010 Senior Population ...... 27 Figure 4.7: Median Household Income ...... 29 Figure 4.8: Zero Vehicle Households ...... 30 Figure 4.9: 2010 Minority Population...... 31 Figure 4.10: 2030 Population Density by TAZ ...... 32 Figure 4.11: 2030 Projected Employment Density by TAZ ...... 33 Figure 4.12: Local Fixed Bus Route Network ...... 35 Figure 4.13: Commuter Express Route Network ...... 38 Figure 5.1: Trip Destinations in Lake County ...... 64 Figure 5.2: Trip Destinations in Downtown Cleveland ...... 64 Figure 5.3: Trip Purpose by Type of Service ...... 65 Figure 5.4: Gender of Laketran Passengers ...... 66 Figure 5.5: Age of Laketran Passengers...... 67 Figure 5.6: Home Ownership for Laketran Passengers ...... 68 Figure 5.7: Vehicles Available for Laketran Passengers ...... 69 Figure 5.8: Laketran Passengers with Disability that Prevents them from Driving ...... 69 Figure 5.9: Race of Laketran Passengers ...... 70 Figure 5.10: Annual Household Income of Laketran Passengers ...... 71 Figure 5.11: Gender of Dial-a-Ride Passengers ...... 72 Figure 5.12: Age of Dial-a-Ride Passengers ...... 73 Figure 5.13: Home Ownership for Dial-a-Ride Passengers ...... 73 Figure 5.14: Vehicle Available for Dial-a-Ride Passengers ...... 74 Figure 5.15: Dial-a-Ride Passengers with Disability that Prevents them from Driving ...... 75 Figure 5.16: Race of Dial-a-Ride Passengers ...... 75 Figure 5.17: Annual Household Income of Dial-a-Ride Passengers ...... 76 Figure 5.18: Trip Purpose ...... 77 Figure 5.19: Transportation Options ...... 80 Figure 5.20: If Dial-a-Ride Did Not Exist ...... 81 Figure 5.21: Overall Customer Satisfaction ...... 85 Figure 5.22: Reasonableness of Fares ...... 86 Figure 5.23: Getting to Wor ...... 87 Figure 5.24: Service Span ...... 88 Figure 5.25: Service Frequency ...... 88 Figure 5.26: Overall Satisfaction with Lake County as a Place to Live ...... 90 Figure 5.27: Percent who have Used Laketran Services in the Past Few Years ...... 91 Figure 5.28: Public Opinion of Laketran ...... 92
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Figure 5.29: Laketran and its Use of its Finances ...... 93 Figure 5.30: Lake County and its Transportation Need ...... 94 Figure 5.31: Support for Laketran ...... 95 Figure 5.32: Laketran and its Existing One-Quarter of One Percent Sales Tax ...... 96 Figure 8.1: Route 2 Proposed Alignment ...... 154 Figure 8.2: Routes 3A and 3B Proposed Alignment ...... 155 Figure 8.3: Route 5B Proposed Alignment ...... 156 Figure 8.4: Commuter Express Proposed Alignments ...... 159 Figure 8.5: Proposed Heisley-Tyler Route Alignment ...... 176 Figure 8.6: Route 4 Extension Proposed Alignment ...... 177 Figure 8.7: Proposed TriPoint Route Alignment ...... 178 Figure 8.8: Proposed Mentor Headland Route Alignment ...... 179 Figure 8.9: New Vehicle for New Innovative Hybrid Fixed Route and Dial-a-Ride Service ...... 180 Figure 8.10: Lake County Bicycle Map ...... 187 Figure 8.11: Central Lake County Bicycle Connectivity Map ...... 189
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List of Tables Table 1.1: Laketran Fare Structure ...... 7 Table 2.1: Sales Tax Trends (1988-2012) ...... 11 Table 2.2: Laketran Revenue Sources ...... 11 Table 2.3: Monthly Sales Tax Revenues January 2008 – March 2010 ...... 13 Table 3.1: Laketran New Revenue Streams (2008-2013) ...... 18 Table 4.1: NOACA County Population (1950-2010) ...... 21 Table 4.2: Local Fixed Route Bus Network Characteristics ...... 36 Table 4.3: Commuter Express Network Characteristics ...... 39 Table 4.4: Directly Operated Dial-a-Ride Network Characteristics ...... 41 Table 4.5: Route 1 Characteristics ...... 42 Table 4.6: Route 2 Characteristics ...... 43 Table 4.7: Route 3 Characteristics ...... 44 Table 4.8: Route 4 Characteristics ...... 45 Table 4.9: Routes 5A and 5B Characteristics ...... 46 Table 4.10: Route 6 Characteristics ...... 47 Table 4.11: Route 10 Characteristics ...... 48 Table 4.12: Route 11 Characteristics ...... 49 Table 4.13: Route 12 Characteristics ...... 50 Table 4.14: Route 13 Characteristics ...... 51 Table 4.15: Route 14 Characteristics ...... 52 Table 4.16: Demand Side Score Summary ...... 54 Table 4.17: Employment Sectors and Associated Transit Usage ...... 55 Table 4.18: Destination Side Score Summary ...... 56 Table 4.19: Route Evaluation Matrix Summary Results ...... 56 Table 4.20: New Dial-a-Ride Enrollments by Year ...... 58 Table 4.21: Dial-a-Ride Trip Characteristics ...... 59 Table 4.22: Dial-a-Ride Trip Types ...... 60 Table 5.1: Frequency of Use ...... 77 Table 5.2: Use of Local Bus Service ...... 78 Table 5.3: Potential for Switching to Local Service...... 79 Table 5.4: Benefits Unique to Laketran ...... 82 Table 5.5: Dial-a-Ride Improvements ...... 82 Table 5.6: Laketran Dial-a-Ride Cuts ...... 83 Table 5.7: List of Current and Future Laketran Benches and Shelters ...... 108 Table 7.1: Forecast Scenario A – Existing Services and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal ...... 138 Table 7.2: Forecast Scenario A – Existing Services and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal with Sales Tax on Internet Sales ...... 139 Table 7.3: Forecast Scenario B –Service Reductions and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal .... 140 Table 7.4: Forecast Scenario C – Restoration and Increases in Services with a ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax and ¼ of One Percent Additional Sales Tax ...... 141 Table 8.1: O&M Cost Model Summary ...... 150 Table 8.2: Existing Laketran Route Model ...... 151 Table 8.3: Validation for Existing Laketran Model ...... 152
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Table 8.4: Timetable for Revised Route 2 ...... 154 Table 8.5: Connections to Lakeland Community College and the Great Lakes Mall ...... 157 Table 8.6: Commuter Express Cost Neutral Recommendation ...... 159 Table 8.7: Cost Savings for Reduced Revenues Scenario ...... 166 Table 8.8: Dial-a-Ride Savings by Ending at 7:00 PM ...... 167 Table 8.9: Dial-a-Ride Savings from Eliminating Fare Reduction for Senior Citizens Aged 60-64 .... 167 Table 8.10: Reduced Dial-a-Ride to Monday and Thursday ADA-only Service ...... 167 Table 8.11: Estimated Impact of Service Cuts ...... 168 Table 8.12: Laketran Service Reduction Affected Markets ...... 169 Table 8.13: Costs for Additional Revenues Scenario ...... 181 Table 8.14: Expanded Revenues Summary ...... 182 Table 8.15: Laketran Service Improvements Affected Markets ...... 183 Table 8.16: Laketran “Rack-n-Roll” Bicycle Ridership ...... 190
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Chapter 1: Introduction
Laketran is the public transit agency that serves Lake County, Ohio, offering a family of services consisting of fixed route, Laketran’s 10 year plan for commuter express, and Dial-a-Ride (paratransit) service public transit, Access to throughout the county. In 2010, Lake County ranked 11th of 88 Opportunity 2014-2024, counties in Ohio in population (230,041 residents), but is, provides a roadmap for the geographically, the smallest at 231 square miles. Lake County is development of transit service comprised of 23 communities including nine cities, nine villages, in Lake County over the next and five townships, and is considered a part of the Cleveland decade to better connect Urbanized Area. residents with jobs, training, Lake County is characterized by the massive suburbanization education, and services, and that followed the Second World War. Willowick and Wickliffe provides the mobility and developed first, followed by Willoughby and Eastlake as independence to the people residents of Cleveland and Cuyahoga County looked eastward who rely on Laketran to fulfill for a more peaceful and idyllic lifestyle. This west to east migration trend continues as rural communities in eastern Lake their transportation needs. County transform into semi-rural or suburban neighborhoods and landscapes. Historically, a few of these older anchor communities were developed with Main Streets or central business districts and are pedestrian friendly. However, a majority of the county can be described as suburban and/or rural, with little to no pedestrian infrastructure, making it challenging to serve with traditional public transportation. Laketran’s service to Lake County began in December of 1974, when the Lake County Commissioners, pursuant to Section 306.30 through 306.71 of the Ohio Revised Code, created the Lake County Regional Transit Authority, which was renamed Laketran in 1979. Laketran continues to provide public transportation services to the people of Lake County as intended under the original resolution adopted by the County Commissioners in 1974. That resolution charged Laketran with the authority and responsibility… “… to provide a coordinated, consolidated, comprehensive public mass transportation system to enable residents of the county to travel to and from their homes, jobs, and other destinations in a convenient, safe, and economical manner, to facilitate and advance the commercial and economic development of the County, and to protect the public health, safety, and welfare of the residents of the County.”
The development of Lake County as a premier public transit provider began in 1979 when Laketran began its first Lake County to Cleveland route. This was followed in 1985 with its first traditional intra-county fixed route. In 1986, Laketran began its Dial-a-Ride service to various Lake County health and human services agencies. The popularity of Dial-a-Ride grew rapidly from its inception to the late 80s. Demand for paratransit service among the general public, especially among senior citizens and residents with
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disabilities, quickly outstripped the ability for Laketran to provide the service. The agency soon found that the existing funding sources could not support capital equipment needs (buses, bus storage and maintenance facilities) as well as the operating expenses required to keep the buses on the road. In 1988, Laketran requested from the residents of Lake County and received support for a ¼ of one percent sales tax levy. The levy enabled Laketran to grow and meet the demand for its services at the time and to fulfill the vision of the Lake County Commissioners in its enabling resolution set at its inception. This created a funding source that ensured Dial-a-Ride could continue to grow and meet the rising demand for rides by senior residents and those with disabilities, and allow Laketran to develop a network of fixed route services to meet the expanding demand for traditional bus service throughout Lake County, as well as commuter express service to downtown Cleveland. Since the initial sales tax levy, voters have continued to overwhelmingly support the ¼ of one percent sales tax levy, renewing the initiative in 1994 and 2004. Over the years, Laketran has continually proven to be both an essential community asset and a local employment leader. This study analyzes a vast array of data and identifies ways Laketran can continue to play both roles in the future of Lake County. Laketran’s mission remains as strong today, as it did at its inception: “Laketran is committed to providing quality public transportation services to all Lake County residents with special emphasis on meeting the transportation needs of seniors and people with disabilities.”
Laketran’s Family of Services Today, Laketran’s family of transit services is comprised of three modes of public transit: traditional fixed route, commuter express, and paratransit (Dial-a-Ride). These services are provided Monday through Friday from 6:00 AM to 8:00 PM and exclude weekend and federally observed holidays. Local Fixed Route Bus Service Laketran operates six routes within its local fixed route operation, connecting to most of the large towns throughout the county and serving the county’s major thoroughfares, as shown in Figure 1.1. These services provide more than 1,300 passengers per day access to and from work, school, medical facilities, shopping/retail establishments, and recreational areas, linking most of Lake County’s municipalities and municipal centers, county offices, schools and colleges, and many of the major medical facilities throughout the county.
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Figure 1.1: Local Fixed Bus Route Network
The transit system has multiple transfer locations, including the Great Lakes Mall along SR-20 in Mentor, Lakeland Community College, Wickliffe Park-n-Ride, and downtown Painesville. These locations facilitate transfers throughout the Laketran network between the east and west sides of the county. Transfers can also be made between Laketran and GCRTA routes at E. 276th Street in Euclid, at Shoregate Shopping Center in Willowick, and the Shops of Willoughby Hills in Willoughby Hills. The Laketran local fixed route bus fleet consists of 16 vehicles, all of which have low-floor access for easy passenger boarding and alighting. Laketran’s fixed-route bus fleet includes two different bus models with different seating capacities. This enables Laketran to closely fit the size of the bus to the size of the market and time of day. The fleet consists of the following bus models: New Flyer Buses – Model Year 2009, 35 foot/low floor, ADA accessible, kneeling vehicles with a seating capacity of 30 passengers that can accommodate up to 2 wheelchairs. Gillig Buses – Model Year 2010, less than 30 foot/low floor, ADA accessible, kneeling vehicles with a seating capacity of 24 passengers that can accommodate up to 2 wheelchairs. Laketran’s local fixed route bus fleet is also equipped with bicycle racks that can accommodate two bicycles at any one time as part of their “Rack-n-Roll” program. The combination of transit and
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bicycle travel increases the network in which riders can access various destinations throughout the county. The bicycle racks encourage multi-modal travel and generate ridership throughout the year. Ride Guides are attached to many bus stop poles and provide customers with important point-of-use information such as a color-coded route map and timetable, fare information, and instructions on how to use the on-board bike racks. This information makes using transit less foreign and more comfortable for existing and new riders. Commuter Express Bus Service Laketran operates five routes in its commuter express service and provides 22 daily departures to downtown Cleveland from seven Park-n-Ride lots conveniently located throughout Lake County, as shown in Figure 1.2. These Park-n-Ride lots are located in Madison, Painesville Township, Mentor, Eastlake, Willowick, Willoughby Hills, and Wickliffe. Commuter express service is offered during morning and evening rush hours, with a Guaranteed Ride Home program that assists riders who need to get home during the day or work late but still need a ride home up until 7:00 PM. Figure 1.2: Commuter Express Route Network
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The Laketran commuter express bus fleet consists of 22 vehicles, all of which are designed with high-floors (lifts are used to accommodate disabled passengers), cushioned reclining seats, and reading lights for improved passenger comfort. The buses are configured with seating to accommodate 49 passengers to meet the high demand, low frequency service profile of the commuter express network. The fleet is comprised of the following bus models: MCI Over-the-Road Coaches – Model Years 1998 and 2004, 40 foot/high floor, ADA lift- equipped, kneeling vehicles with a seating capacity of 49 passengers that can accommodate up to 2 wheelchairs at any one time. Dial-a-Ride Bus Service Laketran provides an extensive door-through-door paratransit service branded Dial-a-Ride. Through its Dial-a-Ride service, Laketran provides the most extensive and thorough type of paratransit service, going above and beyond the minimum requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). The ADA requires transit agencies that offer fixed route service to also offer complementary paratransit service to citizens with disabilities for trips that begin and end within ¾ of a mile of a local fixed route. Laketran, however, provides Dial-a-Ride service to all locations in Lake County, regardless of whether the location is within ¾ mile of a fixed route. Laketran also provides Dial-a- Ride service to seniors (regardless of their disability status) and offers paratransit service to the general public, at a premium fare, while ADA requires only that disabled persons be offered paratransit service. The ADA requires only that disabled passengers be provided curb-to-curb service, but Laketran’s flagship Dial-a-Ride Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service offers “door-through-door” service goes “above and beyond” service, assisting disabled passengers into and out of their the ADA in a number of ways locations at both the origin and destination ends of their providing a door-through-door trips. In this way, Laketran provides the residents of Lake service to seniors and people County with an exceptionally high level of customer service with disabilities throughout Lake that goes “above and beyond” the level provided by most County. other transit systems throughout the country. Laketran operates a majority of its Dial-a-Ride service in-house, but also manages and schedules Dial-a-Ride service for one sub-contractor and utilizes two additional sub-contractors who manage their own scheduling and operation of supplemental paratransit services for Lake County. The service area for Laketran is very large, as it includes all of Lake County as well as medical facilities in Cuyahoga County. The partnership with sub-contractors allows Laketran to meet the paratransit needs of the more than 1,200 paratransit trips that are requested by Lake County residents each day. In order to accommodate these trips and to ensure that they are completed efficiently, Laketran currently uses Trapeze PASS, Version 10, a computerized package for paratransit route scheduling, planning, and run-cutting. Laketran’s Customer Service Center handles more than 100,000 telephone calls each year regarding inquiries and reservations for Dial-a-Ride trips. In addition to its state-of-the-art scheduling software, Laketran also utilizes Motorola radios and Trapeze’s “Ranger Mobile Data Terminals” (MDTs) that provide on-board GPS and Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) monitoring to assist Laketran dispatchers in communicating with drivers and tracking the movement and progress of all Dial-a-Ride vehicles operated by Laketran.
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The Laketran Dial-a-Ride fleet consists of 76 paratransit vans manufactured by Chevy or Ford that are ADA lift equipped, cut-a-way vehicles. The diverse fleet of vehicles offers varying combinations of 12 or 16 seated-passengers and up to six wheelchairs. Dial-a-Ride trips are also provided to more than 30 health and human services agencies located in Lake County. Consequently, this market segment is a very significant share of Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride customer and revenue base. The pass-through of Medicaid Non-Emergency Medical Transportation Funds (NET) and Medicaid Individual Option (IO) Waiver Funds is critical to Laketran’s financial capacity to continue to provide this highly customized and popular service. All of the above services, with the exception of the three supplemental paratransit subcontracts discussed earlier, are operated directly by Laketran, with Laketran-owned vehicles operated and maintained by Laketran employees. Laketran has a collective bargaining agreement with the United Automobile, Aerospace & Agricultural Implement Workers of America, Local 1834 (UAW). The current labor contract is due to expire in September of 2014. In addition to providing transit service to the residents of Lake County, Laketran is a critical member of Lake County’s “first responder” emergency response team. In this role, Laketran is responsible for providing emergency evacuation transportation services in cases of natural or man-made disasters. Over the years, Laketran has provided emergency evacuation transportation services during the floods in Painesville, a freight train derailment/toxic chemical release in Mentor, the gas explosions/fires in Fairport Harbor and many smaller but life threatening emergencies at apartment buildings and senior living complexes.
Ridership In 2008, Laketran provided more than one million passengers trips. During the worst times of the recent economic recession, from 2008 to 2010, Laketran lost passengers due to the rise in unemployment; reductions in weeknight, Saturday and holiday service; and the 2009 fare increase. As Lake County’s unemployment picture improved, so has Laketran’s ridership. From 2010 to 2011, Laketran ridership increased by more than 5 percent and an additional 5 percent from 2011 to 2012. In 2012, Laketran carried 781,700 passengers: 251,448 (33 percent) passengers via Dial-a-Ride services, 331,833 (43 percent) passengers via local fixed route service, and 198,419 (24 percent) passengers via commuter express service. Also in 2012, more than 300,000 riders were taken on Laketran to commute to/from work, more than 100,000 for healthcare, more than 100,000 for school or training, and more than 100,000 for shopping for essential goods and/or services. The remaining trips were taken for various other trip purposes. Based on the large number of trips it provides to the elderly, disabled, students, workers, clients of health and human service agencies, shoppers and those needing public transit services to access healthcare, it is apparent that Laketran has established itself as a vital public service in the community and plays an important role in the current and future success of Lake County. Laketran is well on its way to carrying 20 million total passengers since it was established in 1974.
Fare Policy Fares for each of the three modes of service are shown in Table 1.1. Laketran’s fare structure includes free transfers between its services and those provided by the Greater Cleveland Regional
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Transit Authority (GCRTA). With the acquisition of new, state-of-the-art electronic fareboxes, Laketran’s fare collection system dispenses a re-loadable Smart Card. This new technology makes it very convenient for Laketran’s customers, particularly seniors and those with disabilities, to pay fares without having to carry exact change. Laketran also offers employer/employee commuter benefits under the 2010 Tax Relief Act by direct sale to individual companies or to multiple employers associated with “Wage Works” and “Edenred”. Table 1.1: Laketran Fare Structure
Local Commuter Dial-a-Ride Dial-a-Ride
Fixed route Express Intra-County Inter-County
Regular Fare $1.75 $3.75 $10.00 $20.00 Senior/Disabled/Child* $0.75 N/A $2.50 $5.00 Cleveland-Based Student Fare N/A $1.50 N/A N/A 31-Day Pass N/A $135.00 N/A N/A *Child fare is for ages 2-12; Children under 2 ride free
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Chapter 2: Financial Problems Confronting Laketran
Laketran is funded by a combination of federal, state and local funding sources, including fare revenue. Of these, local sales tax revenues provide approximately 60% of the agency’s funding. Laketran’s 10 year ¼ of one percent sales tax expires in July 2014. Before that time, Laketran must ask the voters of Lake County to either renew this tax, or increase it. Failure to pass either a renewal or an increase in the existing sales tax levy would be catastrophic to the agency’s financial capacity to provide public transit service. The two major problems confronting Laketran are: (1) the Since Laketran passed its local volatility and stagnation in traditional levels of federal, sales tax in 1988, federal and state state, and local public transit funding and (2) the funding has fallen significantly, uncertainty in these future funding levels for both the near shifting the responsibility for and long term. These problems make it impossible for financing public transit primarily to Laketran to: local communities. Without an maintain existing levels of local fixed route, additional source of revenue commuter express, and Dial-a-Ride for the next Laketran cannot maintain existing ten years; levels of service over the next 10 restore later weeknight, Saturday, and holiday years, restore service eliminated in service that were eliminated in response to 2009, or respond to the increasing funding shortfalls in 2009; and demand for new services now and respond to the increasing demand for public into the future. transit services by Lake County residents.
Volatility and Stagnation in Traditional Funding Sources Following World War II, the trend of people moving to the suburbs began. This migration from cities to the suburbs made it increasingly difficult for private bus companies throughout the United States to generate sufficient profits from farebox revenue to finance increasing operating costs and to amortize their investment in capital equipment, primarily in the acquisition of new buses. Consequently, the private sector began reducing the levels of bus service and eventually abandoned providing this service altogether. Because so many people were dependent on bus service to get to work, healthcare, training and education, shopping, as well as social and recreational venues, public transit authorities were established throughout the country and taxpayer funds were used to abate the deterioration in bus service. This phenomenon established the provision of bus service as an essential taxpayer supported government service. As any other essential government service (i.e. police and fire service), the viability of bus service became and remains directly proportional to and affected by the level of taxpayer funding. In the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, the federal government provided both capital and operating funding to help public transit agencies mitigate the costs of providing public transit. During much of this time, the federal government provided 50 percent of the cost to operate this essential public service. By the mid-1990s, the federal government phased out traditional operating assistance and provided
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only a reduced level of support to help offset the maintenance costs of assets (e.g. facilities and vehicles) it previously helped finance via other funding mechanisms. While the federal government continued to provide capital funding, for purchasing buses, buildings and equipment, the financial responsibility fell to the state and local governments to fund the day-to-day operating costs of public transit agencies, which included salaries, wages, benefits, fuel, insurance, and utilities. Beginning in 1999, (State Fiscal Year 2000), the State of Ohio also began to reduce its investment in public transit. From 2000 to 2013, state general revenue funds (GRF) for public transit were slashed from $43.7 to $7.7 million – an 82 percent reduction in non-inflation adjusted dollars and, given inflation, a much greater reduction in inflation-adjusted dollars. Fortunately, Laketran had been able to secure another source of funding years before both the federal and state governments had decided to reduce their funding in public transit. After several attempts to pass a dedicated sales tax levy, Laketran was successful in persuading the voters of Lake County to pass a dedicated ¼ of one percent sales tax levy that enabled Laketran to mitigate the funding volatility that would follow. Since Laketran began receiving sales tax revenue, this source of funding has increased every year for nineteen years between 1988 and 2007 with the exception of 2005. However, it is very important to note that while sales tax revenues grew on an annual basis, the rate of growth has declined over time. As shown in Table 2.1, the growth in sales tax revenue (measured as an average Laketran’s primary annual percentage) declined from the earlier years beginning in 1988. By 2007, Laketran’s sales tax revenue hit its peak at over revenue source is a local $7.9 million, after which sales tax revenues decreased in 2008 ¼ of one percent sales tax. and 2009. While local sales tax rebounded in 2010, 2011 and Since 1988, sales tax 2012, the ¼ of one percent local sales tax has yet to generate revenues have increased, the same revenue it did in 2007, prior to the beginning of the but at a decreasing rate. In economic recession. 2008, revenues actually While the economy has been slow to recover and local sales tax declined and have yet to revenues are rebounding, a closer examination of Laketran’s fully recover to their 2007 combined federal, state, and local funding since 2007 (Table level. 2.2) demonstrates not only the volatility in its various existing sources of funding but clearly shows the fundamental weakness in Laketran’s finances – that no predictable, reliable or increasing combination of funding exists from its main sources. From 2007 to 2013, the cumulative impact on Laketran’s finances has been a net loss of nearly $537,000 in combined local, federal and state aid.
Uncertainty in Future Funding Levels for the Near and Long Term In 2005, Congress passed and President Bush enacted the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) that provided funding for highways, roads, bridges, and public transit. That bill expired in September of 2009 and was not replaced until 2012. During this three year period, Congress failed to pass a multi-year transportation bill and only provided public transit funding in multiple short term extensions through continuing resolutions. These short term extensions introduced more uncertainty into Laketran’s finances since it didn’t allow any predictability on how much federal funding would be forthcoming and for what length of
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Table 2.1: Sales Tax Trends (1988-2012)
Percentage Average Annual Percentage Year Sales Tax Revenue Increase Increase 1988 $2,896,052 1989 $3,643,235 1990 $3,846,472 44.5% 11.1% 1991 $3,901,793 1992 $4,184,700 1993 $4,398,476 1994 $5,006,271 1995 $5,453,029 41.6% 8.3% 1996 $5,648,412 1997 $5,923,447 1998 $6,718,865 1999 $6,731,568 2000 $7,130,985 21.6% 4.3% 2001 $7,175,596 2002 $7,202,698 2003 $7,440,528 2004 $7,637,135 2005 $7,435,668 9.9% 2.0% 2006 $7,646,332 2007 $7,913,160 2008 $7,744,814 2009 $7,107,819 2010 $7,294,637 -0.6% -0.1% 2011 $7,759,653 2012 $7,869,358
Table 2.2: Laketran Revenue Sources
Laketran Fiscal Variance from Variance from Sales Tax Federal State Total Year 2007 ($) 2007 (%)
2007 $7,913,160 $2,437,333 $698,423 $11,048,916 - - 2008 $7,744,814 $2,521,305 $647,584 $10,913,703 -$135,213 -1% 2009 $7,107,819 $2,742,420 $772,179 $10,622,418 -$426,498 -4% 2010 $7,294,637 $2,686,907 $960,893 $10,942,437 -$106,479 -1% 2011 $7,759,653 $2,439,707 $1,072,111 $11,271,471 $222,555 2% 2012 $7,869,358 $2,306,120 $1,030,575 $11,206,053 $157,137 1% 2013 Budgeted $7,600,000 $2,246,000 $954,670 $10,800,670 -$248,246 -2% Net Gain/Loss -$536,744 - *Numbers in red represent a decrease in funding from the prior year.
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time. As shown in Table 2.3, Laketran was already experiencing significant losses in monthly sales tax revenue as far back as February 2008. In fact, from January 2008 through March 2010, Laketran’s monthly sales tax revenues plummeted 22 out of 27 months. In 2012, Congress passed the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21). However, rather than setting transportation policy and funding for four or five years as was the norm with previous transportation funding bills, MAP-21 provided funding for only two years. Given the short time period of the MAP-21 and the current debate over deficit reduction in Washington, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the future of federal public transit funding beyond the expiration of MAP-21 in September 2014. In fact, at the time of this writing, Congress has still not passed an appropriations bill for the period of April 1, 2013 through September 30, 2013. At the state level, Governor Kasich has proposed a new biennial budget for the period of July 2013 through June 2015, and the Ohio House of Representatives approved this budget with the passing of House Bill 59 on April 18, 2013. HB59 does not increase the Governor’s proposed allocation of general revenue funds (GRFs). Unless the State Senate takes the initiative to do so which is, unfortunately, unlikely, GRF funding for public transit is likely to remain at the current biennium levels for the next two years, with only $7.7 million per year divided among the 59 transit systems that operate within Ohio. Finally, as noted above, Laketran’s principal source of funding – the 10 year dedicated ¼ of one percent sales tax, will expire on July 2014 and must once again be placed on the ballot. The tax will be placed before the voters in the general election in November of 2013.
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Table 2.3: Monthly Sales Tax Revenues January 2008 – March 2010
2010 2009 2008 2007 Change Change (%) March $545,646 $547,385 -$1,739 -0.3% February $509,511 $521,122 -$11,611 -2% January $748,505 $770,673 -$22,168 -3% Subtotal $1,803,662 $1,839,180 -$35,518 -2%
December $567,085 $578,197 -$11,112 -2% November $571,111 $645,416 -$74,305 -12% October $560,550 $618,419 -$57,869 -9% September $582,426 $660,308 -$77,882 -12% August $618,773 $656,587 -$37,814 -6% July $631,190 $703,251 -$72,061 -10% June $608,715 $652,711 -$43,996 -7% May $547,405 $624,105 -$76,700 -12% April $581,384 $644,673 -$63,289 -10% March $547,385 $589,159 -$41,774 -7% February $521,122 $518,997 $2,125 0.4% January $770,673 $852,991 -$82,318 -10% Subtotal $7,107,819 $7,744,814 -$636,995 -8%
December $578,197 $676,207 -$98,010 -14% November $645,416 $564,749 $80,667 14% October $618,419 $653,070 -$34,651 -5% September $660,308 $619,650 $40,658 7% August $656,587 $658,383 -$1,796 -0.3% July $703,251 $747,959 -$44,708 -6% June $652,711 $678,637 -$25,926 -4% May $624,105 $656,996 -$32,891 -5% April $644,673 $667,987 -$23,314 -3% March $589,159 $562,934 $26,225 5% February $518,997 $575,825 -$56,828 -10% January $852,991 $850,763 $2,228 0.3% Subtotal $7,744,814 $7,913,160 -$168,346 -2%
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Chapter 3: Financial Recovery Plan
Facing declining local sales tax revenues and uncertainty in federal and state aid, Laketran began to develop a comprehensive Financial Recovery Plan (FRP) in late 2008 to ward off expected and projected deficits for the current and upcoming years. This section highlights the development and implementation of this FRP, and the actions taken by Laketran to preserve the system during the recession. The FRP avoided Laketran from relying on the agency’s cash balance to offset projected deficits that would have depleted cash by 2011 and triggered larger service cuts. Depleting the cash balance would also have left Laketran without any matching funds to replace vehicles that were scheduled to reach the end of their life cycles. Foregoing the purchase of new replacement buses would only have worsened Laketran’s financial problems by increasing the cost to maintain and operate a fleet of older vehicles.
Initiatives Taken by Laketran to Mitigate the Volatility and Stagnation in Funding In March 2009, Laketran management presented the Board of Trustees a proposed FRP. The goals of the FRP were to reduce the projected deficits while preserving as much service as possible and avoid a premature ballot initiative to increase Laketran’s ¼ of one percent sales tax levy before its 2014 expiration. The FRP consisted of two parts. The first part targeted a reduction of agency expenses, while the second part focused on the development of new and unique revenue streams. The first part of the FRP targeted decreasing operating expenses by cutting budgetary line items across the board, increasing third party subcontracts for the provision of Dial-a-Ride service and reducing personnel costs. Salaries and wages were frozen three times. Long term costs were reduced through an early retirement program. Incentives were provided for employees to opt out of Laketran’s healthcare program, a new provision to increase the employees’ share of healthcare costs was negotiated for new employees and the size of Laketran’s workforce was cut. Laketran’s headcount was reduced by lay-offs, abolishing positions and freezing vacant positions. In addition, Laketran entered into innovative “price risk management” contracts for the purchase of diesel fuel. These contracts, a form of fuel price hedging, eliminated the volatility of diesel fuel costs by setting up contracting opportunities for a three year period to In 2008, unprecedented purchase this commodity at pre-set prices. As fuel prices rose and remained high from 2008–2012, Laketran saved declines in sales tax thousands of dollars by purchasing fuel below market prices. revenues and volatility in federal and state funding had The second part of the FRP concentrated on developing new Laketran fighting for its revenue streams for the agency. In order to preserve Dial-a- Ride trips for clients of health and human service agencies financial survival. Despite that depended on Laketran for their most basic mobility budget cuts and the needs, Laketran partnered with several agencies by entering development of new revenue into innovative purchase of service contracts to pass through streams, Laketran had no Medicaid funding for eligible recipients to help offset the other option than to cut costs of providing Dial-a-Ride services. In addition to services and raise fares to obtaining this new source of revenue, Laketran worked with close projected deficits. ODOT and NOACA on a number of separate “one-time”
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initiatives to “flex” allowable federal highway funds for public transit purposes. Also during this same time period, Laketran successfully obtained two “New Freedom” grants to generate additional revenues that will expire in 2015 and began to re-allocate a portion of its federal capital funds to help offset certain eligible Dial-a-Ride operating costs allowable under Section 5307. A list of the new streams and their revenues Laketran has developed from 2008 to 2013 is provided in Table 3.1. However, even with the implementation of these measures to cut expenses and develop new revenue streams, Laketran still needed to reduce service by 10 percent and significantly raise fares to reduce projected future deficits. Proposed service cuts included eliminating: all weeknight service after 7:00 PM, service on Saturdays, and federally observed holidays and proceeding with two proposed fare increases in 2009 and 2010. After a thorough review of the plan, the Board of Trustees authorized management to proceed with public hearings. During April 2009, Laketran held public hearings around Lake County on the proposal to reduce service and raise fares. The proposal to cut service and raise fares was met with public controversy. Testimony was heard from seniors and people with disabilities about the loss of their primary mobility options and how they would become captives in their own homes without Laketran services from Friday evening to Monday morning. Employees who depended on bus service to get to work during evenings and Saturdays expressed concern about losing their jobs and college students who had classes scheduled for evenings and Saturdays testified as well about the hardships that would be created by the elimination of services. Dialysis patients, their family members, and representatives of dialysis centers shared stories about the difficulty that would be encountered in trying to change schedules to obtain this lifesaving treatment during Laketran’s new service hours. Clients and representatives of health and human service agencies and those on fixed incomes also testified about the economic hardships of paying higher fares. In May 2009, after considering the comments from the public hearings and reviewing the projected deficits and volatility in federal and state aid and local sales tax revenues, the Board approved the FRP, which was subsequently implemented on July 1, 2009. By the end of 2009, Laketran reduced its annual operating expenses from a budget of $13.6 million to $11.8 million. Annual operating expenses have remained below $13 million through 2012 and are projected to remain so for the 2013 budget year as well. The Financial Recovery Plan has enabled Laketran to: Mitigate the volatility and stagnation in Laketran’s traditional revenue sources for the past five years; Avoid having to make any further reductions in local fixed route, commuter express, and Dial- a-Ride service; Rebuild ridership previously lost due to a combination of increasing unemployment, higher fares, and service cuts; Cancel the proposed fare increase scheduled for 2010 and stabilize fares through 2013; Restore weekday evening service from 7:00 PM to 8:00 PM; Temporarily restore weeknight service beyond 8:00 PM and Saturday service during the past two Christmas shopping seasons; Preserve thousands of Dial-a-Ride trips for clients of health and human services agencies; and
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Replenish its cash balance to offset future deficits and maintain existing levels of service for the short term.
Many of the new additional revenue streams were one-time fixes, with many of the annual recurring revenue streams showing signs of flattening. Even the sources that generated the most revenue, such as those associated with Medicaid, are now under scrutiny, as Congress and the President continue to debate ways to reduce Medicaid and Medicare costs. Salary and wage freezes also cannot be relied on indefinitely. Increases in employee contributions for healthcare have their limitations before these internal expense reduction techniques begin to take a toll on employee morale and turnover and, especially, on the high quality of customer service given by Laketran frontline employees. Besides, there is not much savings to be gained from salary freezes since Laketran is operated with only 11 salaried employees. In addition to these employees, Laketran only has three hourly administrative support personnel. There is no large middle-management staff, and the current staff is expected to handle all the following: policy level decision making; day-to-day oversight of operations and maintenance of three modes of public transit and associated facilities and infrastructure; the agency’s budget, accounting, financial, grants and procurement functions; human resources, benefit administration, labor, employee relations, safety, and training functions; administration and compliance of all federal and state programs and associated regulations and reporting requirements; as well as the marketing, advertising, and community relations of the transit system. All other employees are paid hourly and expected to directly supervise, schedule, and dispatch services, operate vehicles, and maintain and clean all vehicles and facilities. With Laketran already operating at a minimum number of employees, any reductions in future federal or state aid can only be accommodated in conjunction with a similar level of service reduction. Laketran’s finances will be explored in greater detail in Chapter 7. However, it appears that much like in 1988, prior to the While the Financial Recovery passage of the ¼ of one percent sales tax levy, Laketran’s Plan provided temporary relief responsibility to meet the growing service demand – largely by for the past five years, it was seniors and people with disabilities and Lake County’s health never conceived to be a and human service clients – has outstripped available financial permanent solution to fix resources. Without a new, dedicated, reliable, and adequate Laketran’s fragile financial source of revenue, Laketran cannot survive in its present form. Future budget cuts impacting service deeply and significantly situation. are detailed and discussed in greater detail in Chapter 8.
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Table 3.1: Laketran New Revenue Streams (2008-2013)
Funds from New Revenue Streams - Operating Budget
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Budgeted
1 JFS Medicaid NET$ 13,062 $ 275,186 $ 297,648 $ 345,593 $ 373,390 $ 375,000 $ 1,679,879
2 MRDD Medicaid IO Waivers $ 189,190 $ 283,794 $ 305,027 $ 283,173 $ 285,000 $ 1,346,184
3 New Freedom Dialysis $ 35,610 $ 90,274 $ 73,084 $ 69,614 $ 78,889 $ 75,000 $ 422,471
4 Soc. Of Rehab IO Waivers$ 15,441 $ 17,830 $ 16,674 $ 14,669 $ 15,000 $ 79,614
5 New Freedom Travel Training $ 7,498 $ 16,483 $ 21,537 $ 6,197 $ 12,730 $ 15,000 $ 79,445
6 New Freedom Administration $ 2,155 $ 5,338 $ 4,577 $ 3,791 $ 4,549 $ 4,500 $ 24,910
7 Formula Funds ADA - Federal$ 55,059 $ 55,000 $ 180,940 $ 230,612 $ 230,000 $ 751,611
8 Sect.5307 Prev Maint - Sub-Contractors$ 141,032 $ 210,515 $ 217,001 $ 200,000 $ 768,548
9 Formula Funds ADA - State(a) $ 213,691 $ 213,691
10 CMAQ (a) $ 122,546 $ 122,546
11 AARA/ Federal Stimulus(a) $ 362,994 $ 362,994
12 Auction Proceeds - Sale of Obsolete$ 120,462 $ 35,466 $ 155,928
Buses & Equipment(a)
13 Federal Fuel Initiative(a) $ 367,197 $ 367,197
Total$ 58,325 $ 769,517 $ 1,471,187 $ 1,258,813 $ 1,250,479 $ 1,566,697 $ 6,375,018
(a) one-time revenue source; all others are annual recurring revenue source
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Chapter 4: Service Area Macro-Analysis
A look at the current state of Lake County is valuable in projecting how the County will develop through 2024. Projections in population, age, employment, and income will indicate what services will be needed and where they will be needed in the future. Developing services that meet these needs will shape Laketran’s future. This chapter presents the current demographic and socio-economic trends in Lake County, and how these trends will shape the recommendations that follow in Chapter 8. This chapter is divided into three sections. The first section presents the demographic analysis of Lake County taken from the 2010 US Census and the American Community Survey. The second examines Laketran’s family of transit services including: local fixed route, commuter express and Dial-a-Ride services. The last section provides an assessment of existing Laketran services.
Current Demographic Analysis Demographic patterns are an important component of the current service assessment as they support the potential market for transit. Population and employment density indicate where the majority of transit users begin and end their trips and projections of these indicators show where transit use is likely to expand or contract in the future. Other demographic patterns show the locations or concentrations of people within Lake County whose characteristics make them more likely than the general population to use transit, including seniors, low income populations, minority populations, and households without private vehicles. Together, these development and demographic patterns serve as market indicators of existing and potential future demand for Laketran service.
Population Density Population density is a key indicator of potential transit use As residents of Lake County because higher density areas by definition will have more people living within walking distance of a transit stop than in lower continue to age in place and density areas, increasing the potential for transit ridership. Higher should gas prices continue to density neighborhoods are often characterized by multi-family increase, the propensity for housing or single family housing on small lots coupled with less people to use transit could available parking and smaller setbacks than in lower density change the relationship suburban neighborhoods. Higher density areas also often have between transit ridership and commercial uses along main thoroughfares; paved sidewalks population density, with more creating a more walkable environment that is conducive to transit transit trips being generated use. These design features all contribute to more people choosing by lower density areas. to use transit. Population density can also be used to indicate the level of transit service that is most appropriate for an area. Although many factors influence service levels, the traditional rule of thumb is that an area with a population density above 5 people per acre can support hourly bus service, and an area with a population density above 10 people per acre can support bus service with a frequency of 15- 30 minutes. Areas of lower density may be unable to support hourly fixed route transit service at higher levels of productivity. Page | 19
However, as the residents of Lake County continue to age in place and should gas prices continue to increase, the propensity for people to use transit could change the relationship between transit ridership and population density, with more transit trips being generated by lower density areas. Figure 4.1 illustrates population density by transportation analysis zone (TAZ) for the year 2010. As shown on the map, most of Lake County has a population density of less than 5 people per acre, including all areas south of I-90 and east of Painesville. The only areas where population density exceeds 10 people per acre are limited to a few blocks near downtown Painesville and an area in Willowick bounded by Lakeshore Boulevard, Worden Road, E. 305th Street, and Forestgrove Road. The remaining developed areas in Lake County fall within the 5-10 people per acre range, where local fixed route service operating at one hour headways is appropriate. These areas are concentrated in the northwest part of the county, and include most of Painesville, Mentor-on-the- Lake, and Willowick, and parts of Mentor, Eastlake, Willoughby, and Wickliffe. Figure 4.1: 2010 Population Density by TAZ
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Population counts from NOACA reveal that the population of Lake County has remained relatively unchanged since 2000 with the region as a whole experiencing a total loss of population. According to NOACA’s long-range transportation plan, Connections 2035, during the past 40 years the Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) has experienced an overall loss of population of around 10.5 percent, as shown in Table 4.1. The most significant decennial loss experienced by the region occurred between 1970 and 1980 where population declined by 6.4 percent. However, this mass emigration is not indicative of all the counties, especially Lake County, which has seen its population grow in every decennial census since 1950. Table 4.1: NOACA County Population (1950-2010)
Geauga Lake Lorain Medina Cuyahoga NOACA County County County County County 1950 1,389,532 26,646 75,979 48,162 40,417 1,680,736 1960 1,647,895 47,573 148,700 217,500 65,315 2,126,983 1970 1,721,300 62,977 197,200 256,843 82,717 2,321,037 1980 1,498,400 74,474 212,801 274,909 113,150 2,173,734 1990 1,412,140 81,129 215,499 271,126 122,354 2,102,248 2000 1,393,845 90,895 227,511 284,664 151,095 2,148,010 2005 1,356,860 94,440 230,510 288,400 161,670 2,131,880 2010 1,280,122 93,389 230,041 301,356 172,332 2,077,240
Cuyahoga County is the only county in the region that has experienced significant population loss with a decline of more than 440,000 people in the 40 year period. During this same period, the other counties in the region have experienced growth rates of 16 to 18 percent, representing a combined increase of approximately 200,000 people. While some of the movement from Cuyahoga County has leaked to other parts of the state and country, much of the movement consists of Cuyahoga County losing population to it neighboring counties in the region, which has contributed to the growth of these counties since 1970.
Employment Density Employment density is another indicator of a potential transit use because a high number of transit trips are made by people traveling to and from work. Employment density is often used as an indicator of potential transit ridership because areas with concentrated employment, or a large number of people traveling to work in a small area, are easiest to serve by fixed route bus service. Areas with high employment density are also more likely to exhibit other characteristics, such as higher levels of congestion and constrained parking conditions that make transit a more desirable mode of transportation. As shown in Figure 4.2, most of Lake County has very low levels of employment. Areas with employment densities greater than five jobs per acre are concentrated in the corridor south of OH-2 and north of Mentor Avenue, with other areas of higher employment density located near the Great Lakes Mall, Shoregate Shopping Center, Shops of Willoughby Hills, and in downtown Painesville. Figures 4.3 and 4.4 provide a more detailed description of employment in Lake County, illustrating where the largest individual employers are located and what types of industries are located in the county’s major employment centers. As shown in Figure 4.4, manufacturing, services, and retail are
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the dominant industries in Lake County. Major retail employers are concentrated near Great Lakes Mall and along Mentor Avenue and Vine Street. Industrial employers are, unsurprisingly, located along the CSX railroad line that runs parallel and south of OH-2, with the largest industrial employers located in Wickliffe, along Tyler Boulevard in Mentor, and in Painesville Township. Service jobs are dispersed through the western half of the county, with notable concentrations in Willoughby, Mentor, Painesville and Concord. In the eastern half of the county, jobs are almost exclusively with smaller employers in the retail, wholesale trade, and services industries.
Figure 4.2: 2010 Employment Density by TAZ
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Figure 4.3: 2012 Total Employees
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Figure 4.4: 2012 Employees by Industry
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Population + Employment Density Because home and work are the two most common origins and destinations for transit trips, a combined map of population and employment density can be used as a proxy for development intensity and expected transit demand and supportable service levels. Typical development intensity thresholds and corresponding transit service include the following1: 5-10 jobs + residents per acre represent typical low-density suburban development. Most transportation trips occur using the automobile, with bicycle and walking used primarily for recreation. Transit is typically bus based, designed to maximize coverage, with hourly frequencies. 10-25 jobs + residents per acre represent typical urban neighborhoods comprised of compact single- family homes with adjacent commercial districts. Fixed route bus service can be supported, typically with 30-60 minute frequencies, but single occupancy vehicles remain the dominant form of transportation. 25-40 jobs + residents per acre represent denser residential areas and commercial districts. Driving is still the dominant mode choice, but the shortage and price of parking, as well as the closer proximity of transit stops in a denser environment, make transit, cycling and walking an attractive alternative. Fixed route bus service with 10-20 minute frequencies can be supported in these areas. 40 jobs + residents per acre represent a densely developed residential or commercial district. Non- vehicular modes are increasingly more prominent; modes of transportation such as bicycle, walking, and transit are used more frequently and there is a marked decrease in the number of single occupancy vehicles. Typically higher quality transit (such as bus rapid transit (BRT) or streetcar) can be supported with this development intensity. Figure 4.5 maps combined population + employment density for Lake County in 2010. The results show the highest intensity areas are located in the northwest part of the county, however there are no areas with more than 40 jobs + residents per acre, and only one small area (one TAZ) in Painesville with more than 25 jobs + residents per acre. The remainder of the developed areas fall within the 5-10 jobs + residents per acre (areas of Painesville, Painesville Township, Mentor, Mentor- on-the-Lake, Fairport Harbor, and Eastlake) or the 10-25 jobs + residents per acre range (areas of Wickliffe, Willowick, Willoughby, and Painesville). This indicates that the existing local fixed route service, which operates at 60 minute frequencies, provides an appropriate level of service for most of the development in the county. It also indicates that the remainder of the county, south of I-90 and east of Painesville, does not meet the development limited thresholds recommended for regular fixed route bus service. These areas are provided with transit service only to ensure coverage throughout the service area. As in the case of population density alone, the potential volume of transit trips that might be generated by combined population and employment density could be seen to increase as the impact of higher fuel prices take hold, or if other demographic factors (such as age) begin to generate higher transit ridership.
1 Thresholds were estimated using data from Urban Development Intensities in the Washington DC Metropolitan Area (2007) by Terry Holzheimer and residential densities from Public Transportation and Land Use Policy (1977) by Jeffery Zupan and Boris Pushkarev. Page | 25
Figure 4.5: 2010 Population + Employment Density by TAZ
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Senior Population The senior population is a group that tends to ride public transportation in greater numbers than the population at large. Many seniors live on fixed incomes that can reduce their ability or desire to own and operate a private vehicle. Aging can reduce eyesight and slow reactions, which can make some seniors reluctant to drive even if they have the financial means to do so. Age also correlates with higher levels of physical disability that may limit driving. Since Laketran recognizes seniors at age 60, this analysis defines seniors as those aged 60 or older rather than those aged 65 or older as generally accepted by the US Census and other publically collected statistics. Figure 4.6 shows where concentrations of the senior population live in Lake County. In general, the senior population is not concentrated in any one area of the county, although the percentage of seniors is slightly higher in the more rural eastern half the county and in the lower density suburbs of Willoughby Hills and Waite Hill. These may indicate locations of senior housing or older residential areas where many seniors have remained in their homes. Figure 4.6: 2010 Senior Population
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Median Household Income and Zero Vehicle Households Median household income and zero vehicle households are each used as indicators of propensity to use transit as a primary means of transportation. Figure 4.7 shows median household income and Figure 4.8 shows the percentage of households with no available vehicles. These indicators are important for two reasons. First, areas with low median household income and a high percentage of zero vehicle households are likely to include transit riders. Therefore, these maps can be used to show areas where transit ridership is likely to be stronger than average due to the presence of transit-dependent or auto-deficient (less than one car per driver in the household) populations. In Lake County, these two indicators are strongest within the city of Painesville. In Lake County, there are very few areas with high concentrations of zero vehicle households, however the most notable being residential areas west of downtown Painesville, Breckenridge Village in Willoughby (a retirement community), and the cluster of condominiums west of SOM Center Road and south of Euclid Avenue in Willoughby. These areas also exhibit lower median household incomes relative to the county, which may indicate the presence of transit-dependent households in these areas. The second use for these indicators is to identify places with higher household incomes and a high percentage of zero vehicle households. These are places where people may be choosing to not own a car despite having the means to do so. Parts of Lake County where this trend is evident are few, but include a small area in northern Fairport Harbor and along Lakeshore Boulevard to the east of US-306. The references to transit dependency or choice riders are typically used to relate the type and level of transit service with the needs and expectations of its patrons. This context becomes more important in planning for the development of future transit services.
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Figure 4.7: Median Household Income
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Figure 4.8: Zero Vehicle Households
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Minority Population Minority populations tend to ride public transportation in numbers that are disproportionately larger than their population share, even when controlling for socio-economic status, age, disability status and other factors that correlate with high transit use. For the purposes of this analysis, the minority population is the non-white population as defined by the US Census. Concentrations of minority populations are mapped in Figure 4.9 to show where the existing and potential minority transit market lives within Lake County. The map shows that the largest concentrations of minorities reside in the city of Painesville. Beyond Painesville, there are very few areas in the county where the minority population makes up more than 10 percent of the total population. Figure 4.9: 2010 Minority Population
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Projected Population Density The projected population density for the year 2030 is shown in Figure 4.10. This map indicates that, if present trends continue, the population density in most areas of Lake County will remain much the same over the next twenty years. The only perceptible change from 2010 to 2030 is a projected increase in population density in Mentor in the area south of Mentor Avenue, north of I-90, east of OH-615, and west of Hopkins Road. Although areas of high density residential development are not expected to grow in Lake County over the next 20 years, the existing higher density areas near the Cuyahoga County border, along Lake Erie, and in the city of Painesville are not expected to experience a decrease in population density. This indicates that Laketran’s local fixed route service area is unlikely to experience dramatic changes over the next 20 years based on changes to population density, as areas that can support fixed route service today will retain their existing population densities, and most new residential development is expected to occur at levels that are too low to support fixed route service. Figure 4.10: 2030 Population Density by TAZ
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Projected Employment Density The projected employment density by TAZ for the year 2030 is shown in Figure 4.11. Unlike projected changes in population density, employment densities are expected to increase in many areas over the next 20 years as new jobs are created in locations outside of the county’s traditional employment centers, such as the newly acquired Cleveland Clinic property off the I-90/615 exit in Mentor and I-90/44 corridor in Concord. In 2010, the only TAZs with an employment density greater than 10 jobs per acre were located in downtown Painesville and at the Great Lakes Mall. By 2030, TAZs bordering Mentor and Euclid Avenues in Wickliffe and Willoughby are projected to have employment densities exceeding 10 jobs per acre as well. Employment is also expected to grow along the Tyler Boulevard corridor in Mentor, in the industrial parks west of Lost Nation Boulevard, and in the city of Painesville and Painesville Township along Mentor Avenue. Providing access to increasingly dispersed employment centers will present a challenge for Laketran, particularly if new commercial and industrial development continues to occur in a manner that does not facilitate fixed route transit use, with buildings set back far from the road, limited or no sidewalk networks, and separated uses. Regardless of their development pattern, however, these employment areas are too important to Lake County’s economic future to remain unserved by Laketran fixed-route bus service. Figure 4.11: 2030 Projected Employment Density by TAZ
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Local Fixed Bus Route Structure and Infrastructure Laketran operates six local fixed bus routes. The alignments of these are shown in the map in Figure 4.12. The Great Lakes Mall and Lakeland Community College operate as the local fixed routes central hub, where passengers can coordinate transfers at certain times, or “pulse” points. Transfers are also possible between some routes at the system’s several convergence points, which include downtown Painesville, E.300 Street and Euclid Avenue, Wickliffe Park-n-Ride, Erie Street and Vine Street, and Shoregate Shopping Center. The four highest ridership routes (1, 2, 3, and 6) are operated in the western half of the county, between Painesville and the Cuyahoga County border. These routes serve the denser, more developed part of the county closest to Cuyahoga County, including the suburbs of Willowick, Wickliffe, Willoughby, Willoughby Hills, Eastlake, and Mentor. The remaining two routes provide circulator service in Fairport Harbor and Painesville (Route 5) and limited service to Madison (Route 4) in the more rural, eastern half of the county. Laketran manages very little infrastructure associated with its local fixed route network, aside from bus stops, schedule displays, and a limited number of bus shelters. The six routes that comprise Laketran’s local fixed route network include: Route 1 connects the communities of Painesville and Mentor via Mentor Avenue. Route 1 is the only route that provides connections to all other local routes in the system, either in downtown Painesville (Routes 4 and 5) or at the Great Lakes Mall and Lakeland Community College (Routes 2, 3 and 6). Route 2 serves the communities of Mentor, Willoughby and Wickliffe via Mentor and Euclid Avenues. Its eastern terminus is the Great Lakes Mall/Lakeland Community College. At its western end, the route travels into Cuyahoga County to provide connections to Greater Cleveland RTA Route 28 at E. 276th Street before terminating at the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride on Lakeland Boulevard. Route 2 connects to Route 6 at E. 300 Street and Euclid Avenue, and in downtown Willoughby at Erie Street and Vine Street intersection. Route 3 serves the communities of Mentor, northern Willoughby, Eastlake, Willowick, and Wickliffe via OH-306, Lakeshore Boulevard, Willowick Drive, E. 288 Street, and Grand Boulevard. Its western terminus is the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride on Lakeland Boulevard, and its eastern terminus is the Great Lakes Mall/Lakeland Community College. Route 3 connects to Route 6 at Shoregate Shopping Center. Transfers to Greater Cleveland RTA Routes 30 and 39F are possible at Shoregate Shopping Center. Route 4 connects Madison and Perry Townships with the city of Painesville via US-20/North Ridge Road. Service on this route is more limited than on the rest of the fixed route network, with only three eastbound trips and four westbound trips operated daily. This is primarily a flag-stop route along most of its alignment, with several permanent stop locations located in downtown Painesville. Route 4 connects to Route 1 and Route 5 in downtown Painesville. Routes 5A and 5B provide circulator service in Painesville and Fairport Harbor. Route 5A is operated between downtown Painesville and Fairport Harbor, and serves the Jackson Towers on the return trip. Route 5B is operated as a clockwise loop from downtown Painesville through the neighborhoods of southern Painesville. Each circulator route has a half hour running time, and together they are operated with a single bus on an hourly headway. Route 5A has permanent stops, but Route 5B is operated as a primarily flag-stop route, with several permanent stop locations located in downtown
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Painesville and at several other locations along the route. Route 5A/5B connects to Route 1 and Route 4 in downtown Painesville. Route 6 serves the communities of Mentor, Willoughby, Eastlake, Willowick, Wickliffe, and Willoughby Hills via Mentor Avenue, Vine Street, Lakeshore Boulevard, Worden Road and Bishop Road. Its western terminus is the Shops of Willoughby Hills Park-n-Ride, and its eastern terminus is the Great Lakes Mall/Lakeland Community College. Route 6 connects to Route 3 at Shoregate Shopping Center. Transfers to Greater Cleveland RTA Routes 30 and 39F are possible at Shoregate Shopping Center and Route 94 at Shops of Willoughby Hills. Local fixed route service is Laketran’s second most productive service in its portfolio and also its second most expensive, at 24 percent of its operating budget. In 2012, Laketran carried approximately 332,000 riders on its six local fixed routes resulting in a passenger per revenue hour rate of 9.74, as shown in Table 4.2. The local fixed route transit service had a total cost of $2,725,726 and passenger revenues of $270,552, resulting in a net cost to Laketran of $2,455,173. This resulted in a 9.93 percent farebox recovery rate and a subsidy of $7.40 per passenger.
Figure 4.12: Local Fixed Bus Route Network
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Table 4.2: Local Fixed Route Bus Network Characteristics
2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 331,833 Passenger per Revenue Hour 9.74 Total Cost $2,725,726 Passenger Revenue $270,552 Net Operating Cost $2,455,173 Farebox Recovery 9.93% Subsidy per Passenger $7.40
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Commuter Express Route Structure and Infrastructure Laketran operates a robust network of commuter express routes that connect commuters in Lake County with downtown Cleveland in neighboring Cuyahoga County. Daily, 41 total trips to and from Cleveland are operated in each direction on five different commuter express routes. These routes serve seven Park-n-Ride lots that are strategically placed throughout the county near highway interchanges for easy access by both buses and private vehicles. Similar to the local fixed route network, a majority of the routes serve the denser western areas of Lake County with only one route (Route 11) offering service from the more rural eastern part of the county. The route alignments and Park-n-Ride locations are shown in the map in Figure 4.13. With the exception of its Park-n-Ride lots, Laketran manages very little infrastructure associated with its commuter express network. Commuter express service aligns with typical commuting patterns, with trips to downtown Cleveland operating in the early morning and morning peak, and trips from downtown Cleveland returning to Lake County in the late afternoon and early evening. Commuter express service is only operated Monday through Friday and is not operated on federally observed holidays. The five routes that comprise Laketran’s commuter express network include: Route 10 primarily serves the Market Street Park-n-Ride lot in Mentor. Five of seven westbound trips begin at the Painesville Township Park-n-Ride, travel west on OH-2 to the Market Street Park-n-Ride lot, and then continue to downtown Cleveland via OH-2/I-90. Six of seven eastbound trips serve the Painesville Township Park-n-Ride lot in the evening. Route 11 serves the Madison Park-n-Ride and the Lakeland Community College Park-n-Ride lot in Kirtland. Two westbound trips are operated in the morning, and two eastbound trips are operated in the evening. This is the only commuter express route operated along the Lake County I-90 corridor. Route 12 primarily serves the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride lot located at Lloyd Road and Lakeland Boulevard; however the route circulates through Willowick and Wickliffe and serves St. Mary Magdalene Church and Shoregate Shopping Center before stopping at the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride lot and continuing to downtown Cleveland via OH-2/I-90. Four westbound trips begin at the Painesville Township Park-n-Ride lot in the morning, and three of six eastbound trips serve the Painesville Township Park-n-Ride lot in the evening. This is the only commuter express route that offers reverse commute service, with one eastbound trip in the morning and two westbound trips in the evening. Route 13 begins its morning route at the Mentor Market Street Park-n-Ride and then circulates through Wickliffe before serving the Shops of Willoughby Hills Park-n-Ride lot and continuing to downtown Cleveland and the near west side of Cleveland (St. Ignatius High School) via OH-2/I-90. A single westbound trip is operated in the morning and a single eastbound trip is operated in the evening. The evening route circulates through Willoughby Hills and Wickliffe, and then ends at the Mentor Market Street Park-n-Ride. Route 14 serves the Painesville Township Park-n-Ride with three westbound trips and Eastlake Park- n-Ride with three westbound trips in the morning before continuing on OH-2/I-90 to downtown Cleveland. In the afternoon and evening, it serves the Eastlake, Market Street, and Painesville Township Park-n-Ride lots with three eastbound trips.
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Commuter Express is Laketran’s smallest mode of service but it is also the most productive. At a cost of only $630,000 per year to Laketran and 14 percent of the annual operating budget, commuter express service is the least expensive service in the Laketran portfolio. In 2012, Laketran carried approximately 198,419 riders on its five commuter express routes resulting in a passenger per revenue hour rate of 20.05, as shown in Table 4.3. The commuter express service had a total cost of $1,248,078 and passenger revenues of $614,985 resulting in a net cost to Laketran of $633,093. This resulted in a 49.27 percent farebox recovery rate and a subsidy of only $3.19 per passenger. Figure 4.13: Commuter Express Route Network
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Table 4.3: Commuter Express Network Characteristics
2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 198,419 Passenger per Revenue Hour 20.05 Total Cost $1,248,078 Passenger Revenue $614,985 Net Operating Cost $633,093 Farebox Recovery 49.27% Subsidy per Passenger $3.19
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Dial-a-Ride Transit Service Laketran offers Dial-a-Ride, a door-through-door paratransit service, to all residents of Lake County. Service is limited to destinations within Lake County and designated medical destinations in Cuyahoga County. A reduced fare of $2.50 is available for seniors, students holding a reduced student fare identification card, residents with disabilities, Golden Buckeye card holders, Medicare card holders, or residents with a Laketran-issued ADA identification card. The service is available to all who request it, and is not reserved for disabled or elderly persons. The fare for non-disabled or riders under 60 years of age is $10.00. Service is provided Monday through Friday between the hours of 6:00 AM and 8:00 PM. Service is not offered on weekends or federally observed holidays. Reservations for Dial-a-Ride service can be made up to a ten business days in advance, but no less than two business days in advance. Laketran is required to provide Dial-a-Ride service in accordance with the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) of 1990, which requires transit agencies that offer fixed route service to also offer paratransit service to citizens with disabilities who live within ¾ of a mile of a local fixed route. However, Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service goes beyond what is required of the federal mandate and provides: Service to all residents regardless of ability or residence; Service to any location in Lake County, even outside of the ¾ mile corridor mandated by the ADA; Door-through-door service, while industry standard is to provide curb-to-curb service; Seniors to ride for a discount at age 60, while most transit systems nationwide require seniors to be 65 for a reduced fare; and Reduced Dial-a-Ride fare, even though Laketran could charge double the regular fixed route fare for ADA trips ($1.75 x 2 = $3.50). Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service began before mandates by the ADA existed and remains the agency’s most popular and most important service. At a cost of $6.3 million per year, Dial-a-Ride consumes the majority (62 percent) of Laketran’s annual operating budget. As a result of Laketran’s reduction of hours of service as part of its financial recovery plan in 2009 and Laketran’s phasing in of part- time and private operators, the cost of operating Dial-a-Ride has decreased by 4.4 percent since 2007. However, as a demand-driven service that offers few economies of scale, and in an aging community, Dial-a-Ride service is expected to grow in the coming years. In 2012, Laketran carried 184,341 riders on in-house Dial-a-Ride service resulting in a passenger per revenue hour rate of 2.21, as shown in Table 4.4. The Dial-a-Ride service had a total cost of $6,758,655 and passenger revenues of $440,964 resulting in a net cost to Laketran of $6,317,691. This resulted in a 6.52 percent farebox recovery rate and a subsidy of $34.27 per passenger.
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Table 4.4: Directly Operated Dial-a-Ride Network Characteristics
2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 184,341 Passenger per Revenue Hour 2.21 Total Cost $6,758,655 Passenger Revenue $440,964 Net Operating Cost $6,317,691 Farebox Recovery 6.52% Subsidy per Passenger $34.27
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Fixed Route Performance – On-Board Passenger Count Results A number of metrics can be used to evaluate the performance of a transit system and its individual routes. These usually include ridership and productivity, which can be measured in passengers per revenue hour or passengers per vehicle hour, as well as total operating cost, farebox recovery, and subsidy per passenger. These metrics can be used to assess how a route is performing in the context of the system, and how the system is performing as a whole. In late February and March of 2012, an on-board passenger count was conducted on both local fixed route and commuter express routes. Boardings and alightings were recorded at each bus stop and Park-n-Ride location, and ridership was aggregated to create an average weekday for the survey period. The results of the on-board passenger count, Laketran’s annual ridership, and its 2012 budget are summarized in the following sections. A collection of maps depicting bus stop activity for each route is detailed in Appendix A. Route 1 Route 1 had the highest level of ridership (432 daily boardings) of the local fixed route services and was the most productive at 15.32 passengers per revenue hour. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 1 show 98,363 annual passengers, with a productivity rate of 13.13 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.5. The net cost of operating Route 1 was $503,169 with a farebox recovery of 13.75 percent, resulting in a subsidy per passenger of $5.12. The bus stops along Route 1 that had the highest level of activity include the following: Great Lakes Mall Lakeland Community College St. Clair Street and Main Street (County Administration Building) Mentor Avenue and Wayside Drive (Mentor Medical) 694 Mentor Avenue (Perkins/Goodwill) 9303 Mentor Avenue (Walmart) Table 4.5: Route 1 Characteristics
Route 1 Survey Results Daily Boardings 432 Passengers per Revenue Hour 15.32 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 98,363 Passengers per Revenue Hour 13.13 Total Cost $583,367 Passenger Revenue $80,198 Net Operating Cost $503,169 Farebox Recovery 13.75% Subsidy per Passenger $5.12
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Route 2 Route 2 had the second highest level of ridership (314 daily boardings) of the local fixed route services and was also the second most productive at 11.21 passengers per revenue hour. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 2 was 80,556 annual passengers, with a productivity rate of 11.03 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.6. The net cost of operating Route 2 was $521,303 with a farebox recovery of 11.19 percent, resulting in a subsidy per passenger of $6.47. The bus stops along Route 2 that had the highest level of activity include the following: Great Lakes Mall Lakeland Community College Euclid Avenue and E. 276th Street (Cleveland RTA Shelter) Lloyd Road and Lakeland Boulevard (Commuter Express Park-n-Ride Shelter) Euclid Avenue and Lake Health West Medical Center Drive (West Medical Center) Table 4.6: Route 2 Characteristics
Route 2 Survey Results Daily Boardings 314 Passengers per Revenue Hour 11.21 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 80,556 Passengers per Revenue Hour 11.03 Total Cost $586.982 Passenger Revenue $65,680 Net Operating Cost $521,303 Farebox Recovery 11.19% Subsidy per Passenger $6.47
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Route 3 During the on-board survey, there were 235 daily boardings on Route 3 and a productivity rate of 8.39 passengers per revenue hour. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 3 show 57,138 annual passengers for the route with a productivity rate of 8.00 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.7. The net cost of operating Route 3 was $540,139 with a farebox recovery rate of 7.94 percent, yielding a subsidy per passenger of $9.45. The highest activity along Route 3 was recorded at the following locations: Great Lakes Mall Lakeland Community College Lloyd Road and Lakeland Boulevard (Commuter Express Park-n-Ride Shelter) Lakeshore Boulevard and Shoregate Shopping Center shelter Lakeshore Boulevard and Hayes Avenue (Lost Nation Road Intersection) Table 4.7: Route 3 Characteristics
Route 3 Survey Results Daily Boardings 235 Passengers per Revenue Hour 8.39 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 57,138 Passengers per Revenue Hour 8.00 Total Cost $586,725 Passenger Revenue $46,586 Net Operating Cost $540,139 Farebox Recovery 7.94% Subsidy per Passenger $9.45
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Route 4 During the on-board survey, there were 16 daily boardings on Route 4 and a productivity rate of 4.27 passengers per revenue hour. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 4 show 4,787 annual passengers for the route with a productivity rate of 3.97passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.8. The net cost of operating Route 4 was $102,621, with a farebox recovery rate of 3.66 percent yielding a subsidy per passenger of $21.44. The bus stops along Route 4 that had the highest level of activity are the following: St. Clair Street and Main Street (County Administration Building) Table 4.8: Route 4 Characteristics
Route 4 Survey Results Daily Boardings 16 Passengers per Revenue Hour 4.27 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 4,787 Passengers per Revenue Hour 3.97 Total Cost $106,524 Passenger Revenue $3,903 Net Operating Cost $102,621 Farebox Recovery 3.66% Subsidy per Passenger $21.44
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Route 5 Routes 5A and 5B had a total of 122 boardings during the survey and a productivity rate of 8.84 passengers per revenue hour. Route 5A carries nearly twice as many passengers as Route 5B. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Routes 5A and 5B show 28,817 annual passengers for the route, with a productivity rate of 7.92 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.98. The net cost of operating Routes 5A and 5B was $261,090 with a farebox recovery rate of 8.26 percent, resulting in a subsidy per passenger of $9.06. The bus stops along Routes 5A and 5B that had the highest level of activity are the following: St. Clair Street and Main Street (County Administration Building) State Street and Sanders State Street and Lynch Avenue (Jackson Towers) Liberty Street and Wakefield Court Table 4.9: Routes 5A and 5B Characteristics
Routes 5A and 5B (Combined) Survey Results Daily Boardings 122 Passengers per Revenue Hour 8.84 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 28,817 Passengers per Revenue Hour 7.92 Total Cost $284,586 Passenger Revenue $23,495 Net Operating Cost $261,090 Farebox Recovery 8.26% Subsidy per Passenger $9.06
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Route 6 During the survey, there were 283 daily boardings on Route 6 and a productivity rate of 10.1 passengers per revenue hour. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 6 show 62,172 annual passengers with a productivity rate of 8.55 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.10. The net cost of operating Route 6 was $526,851 with a farebox recovery rate of 8.78 percent, yielding a subsidy of $8.47 per passenger. The bus stops along Route 6 that experienced the highest level of activity include the following: Great Lakes Mall Lakeland Community College Shoregate Shopping Center Lakeshore Boulevard at Aldis (Shoregate Towers) Table 4.10: Route 6 Characteristics
Route 6 Survey Results Daily Boardings 283 Passengers per Revenue Hour 10.1 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 62,172 Passengers per Revenue Hour 8.55 Total Cost $577,541 Passenger Revenue $50,691 Net Operating Cost $526,851 Farebox Recovery 8.78% Subsidy per Passenger $8.47
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Route 10 During the survey, there were 195 daily westbound boarding’s on Commuter Express Route 10. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 10 show 99,198 annual passengers with a productivity rate of 31.17passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.11. The net cost of operating Route 10 was $109,399 with a farebox recovery rate of 73.76 percent, yielding a subsidy of only $1.10 per passenger. Route 10 boardings were predominantly at the Market Street Park-n-Ride lot, with very few boardings at the Painesville Township Park-n-Ride. Alightings for Route 10 were dispersed along Superior Avenue between East 9th Street and Public Square in downtown Cleveland. Table 4.11: Route 10 Characteristics
Route 10 Survey Results Daily Boardings (westbound) 195 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 99,198 Passengers per Revenue Hour 31.17 Total Cost $416,855 Passenger Revenue $307,457 Net Operating Cost $109,399 Farebox Recovery 73.76% Subsidy per Passenger $1.10
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Route 11 During the survey, there were 36 daily westbound boardings on Commuter Express Route 11. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 11 show 17,042 annual passengers with a productivity rate of 12.85 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.12. The net cost of operating Route 11 was $122,267 with a recovery rate of 30.17 percent, yielding a subsidy per passenger of $7.17. Route 11 boardings were evenly distributed between both the Madison and Lakeland Community College Park-n-Ride lots. Alightings for Route 11 were also evenly distributed among the stops in downtown Cleveland. Table 4.12: Route 11 Characteristics
Route 11 Survey Results Daily Boardings (westbound) 36 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 17,042 Passengers per Revenue Hour 12.85 Total Cost $175,087 Passenger revenue $52,820 Net Operating Cost $122,267 Farebox Recovery 30.17% Subsidy per Passenger $7.17
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Route 12 During the survey, there were 110 daily westbound boarding’s on Commuter Express Route 12. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 12 show 55,359 annual passengers with a productivity rate of 16.92 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.13. The net cost of operating Route 12 was $226,526 with a farebox recovery rate of 43.10 percent, yielding a subsidy per passenger of $4.09. The survey results showed that most Route 12 passengers are boarding at the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride, accounting for approximately 70 percent of westbound boardings. The remainder of passengers are boarding at the informal St. Mary Magdalene Park-n-Ride lot or at the Willowick Library, with a handful of passengers boarding at other locations along Vine Street, Lakeshore Boulevard, or East 288th Street. Table 4.13: Route 12 Characteristics
Route 12 Survey Results Daily Boardings (westbound) 110 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 55,593 Passengers per Revenue Hour 16.92 Total Cost $398,108 Passenger Revenue $171,581 Net Operating Cost $226,526 Farebox Recovery 43.10% Subsidy per Passenger $4.09
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Route 13 During the survey, there were 18 daily westbound boarding’s on Commuter Express Route 13. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 13 show only 6,052 annual passengers with a productivity rate of 7.52 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.14. The cost of operating Route 13 was $76,128 with a farebox recovery rate of 19.77 percent, resulting in a subsidy per passenger of $12.58. Most westbound boardings for Route 13 occurred at the bus stop adjacent to the Bishop Park Apartments or the Shops of Willoughby Hills Park-n-Ride lot. Approximately 75 percent of the passengers alighted at the St. Ignatius stop on the near west side of Cleveland. Table 4.14: Route 13 Characteristics
Route 13 Survey Results Daily Boardings (westbound) 18 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 6,052 Passengers per Revenue Hour 7.52 Total Cost $94,886 Passenger Revenue $18,758 Net Operating Cost $76,128 Farebox Recovery 19.77% Subsidy per Passenger $12.58
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Route 14 During the survey, there were 31 daily westbound boarding’s on Commuter Express Route 14. Laketran’s 2012 farebox counts for Route 14 show 20,768 annual passengers with a productivity rate of 15.82 passengers per revenue hour, as shown in Table 4.15. The net cost of operating Route 14 was $98,773, with a farebox recovery rate of 39.46 percent, resulting in a subsidy of $4.76 per passenger. Westbound boardings for Route 14 occur at the Eastlake Park-n-Ride (Classic Park Laketran Transit Center). Table 4.15: Route 14 Characteristics
Route 14 Survey Results Daily Boardings (westbound) 31 2012 Actuals Annual Passengers 20.768 Passengers per Revenue Hour 15.82 Total Cost $163,142 Passenger Revenue $64,369 Net Operating Cost $98,773 Farebox Recovery 39.46% Subsidy per Passenger $4.76
Route Performance Analysis For the local fixed route system, Route 1 performs the best in all metrics based on both the survey and the 2012 farebox counts recorded by Laketran. Route 1 has the highest number of boardings of all the routes, which results in the highest number of passengers per revenue hour and farebox recovery ratio and the lowest subsidy per passenger. Route 1’s operating costs are higher, because it provides more hours of service than any other route. This level of performance is expected from the route as it serves many of the major activity centers in Lake County (Great Lakes Mall, Lakeland Community College, Mentor Medical, Mentor Walmart, etc.) and also serves as the system’s spine route that connects and feeds the other routes that operate within the eastern and western portions of Lake County. For the commuter express system, Route 10 performs the best in all metrics, based on both the survey and the 2012 counts recorded by Laketran. Route 10 has almost double the number of boardings than the next most popular commuter express route (Route 12). This results in Route 10 having the highest number of passengers per revenue hour and the highest farebox recovery ratio of the commuter express routes, with the lowest subsidy per passenger of the entire system, both fixed and commuter express. This level of performance is also expected from the route as it serves one of the most convenient Park-n-Ride lots in the county (Market Street Park-n-Ride lot located right off of the Lakeland Freeway) and has one of the most convenient schedules of all the commuter express routes, with multiple departures to/from downtown Cleveland.
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Route Evaluation Matrix A route evaluation matrix was developed for the purpose of evaluating each route as it currently exists, with the aim of establishing a baseline against which route modifications or proposed new routes can be measured. The matrix consists of two sides: a demand side, which scores routes according to a series of demographic factors, and a destination side, which scores routes by their proximity to a number of trip generators. The total route score, which is generated by summing normalized values of the demand and destination scores, provides a measure of the propensity of the geographic area surrounding the route to produce or attract transit trips. It also ensures that these factors are considered in the process of changing route alignments or implementing new routes so that they will be more productive, efficient or convenient for passengers.
Demand Side Methodology The demand side score used in the route evaluation matrix takes into account the demographic characteristics that indicate a population with a higher propensity to use transit than the public at large. Many of these characteristics were described in the previous demographic analysis section of this chapter. The characteristics selected for the demand side score include households with a low rate of automobile ownership; rental households; low income, youth, senior and minority populations; and population density. The source data for these characteristics is either the 2010 US Census or the 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-year estimates. The method for determining a route’s demand side score is a six-step process: 1. Calculate demographic characteristics for Census block groups within ¼ mile of the route alignment. Seven demographic characteristics are considered in generating the demand side score: Low automobile ownership: percentage of households with zero or one automobile Home rental rate: percentage of total occupied housing units that are rented Low income: percentage of households with an income below the poverty level Senior population: percentage of population age 65 and older Youth population: percentage of population age 17 and younger Minority population: percentage of population defined as non-white by the Census Population density: population per acre 2. Assign a rank score to each demographic characteristic by comparing each value against the average for Lake County, according to the following scale: 1: value is more than 15% below the Lake County average 2: value is between 5% and 15% below the Lake County average 3: value is within 5% of the Lake County average 4: value is between 5% and 15% above the Lake County average 5: value is more than 15% above the Lake County average 3. Calculate the total population (or total number of households) for Census block groups within ¼ mile of the route alignment. This value represents the total potential market size for the route. 4. Multiply the rank score generated in Step 2 by the population (or number of households) generated in Step 3 for each demographic characteristic. This value is the weighted score for each demographic characteristic.
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5. Sum the weighted scores for all demographic characteristics to generate a total weighted demand side score for each route. 6. Normalize demand side scores on a scale of 0 to 5, with 5 being the route with the highest demand side score, and 0 being the route with the lowest demand side score. The total weighted and normalized demand side scores for each route are shown in Table 4.16 below. The complete tables for each demographic characteristic are included in Appendix B. Table 4.16: Demand Side Score Summary
Total Weighted Demand Score Route Demand Score (0-5) Route 1 686,210 5.0 Route 2 564,630 3.6 Route 3 611,283 4.2 Route 4 392,403 1.7 Route 5A 276,082 0.4 Route 5B 242,231 0.0 Route 6 668,633 4.8
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Destination Side Methodology The destination side score takes into account the number of trip generators within proximity of each route. While people use transit for a number of other purposes besides getting to work, employment serves as a useful proxy for activity centers or trip generators. As discussed in the demographic analysis, areas of high employment density have a high propensity for transit use because they are easiest to serve with fixed route transit, and often have higher levels of congestion and parking costs than in other districts in the region. However, not all employment activities will uniformly attract transit riders. For the purposes of the route evaluation matrix, the percentage of US commuters who use public transit by employment sector was used to approximate the likelihood of different industries generating transit trips. As shown in Table 4.17, percentages for each employment sector were obtained from the 2009 American Community Survey data for workers 16 years and older, and were used to assign a transit use level by employment sector as follows: Table 4.17: Employment Sectors and Associated Transit Usage
Employment Sectors Transit Use Level
Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; mining; Construction; Low Wholesale trade
Retail trade; Transportation, warehousing, and utilities; Moderate Educational services; healthcare and social assistance; Other services (except public administration)
Information; finance, insurance, and real estate; Public administration; High Arts, entertainment, accommodation and food services
These transit use levels are used to assign a rank score to each employment industry, as described in the methodology below. For the destination side score, the data source is the 2012 Nielsen Business Point Database for Lake County. The method for determining a route’s destination side score is a five step process: 1. Calculate the number of jobs within ¼ mile of each route alignment and assign each job to a primary industry by 2-digit SIC code. 2. Assign a rank score to each employment industry according to its transit use level: 1: jobs in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries; mining; construction; manufacturing; and wholesale trade industries. 3: jobs in the retail trade; transportation, communication, and utilities; and services (business, legal, social, health and education) industries. 5: jobs in the finance, insurance, and real estate; public administration; and services (personal, entertainment, lodging, repair) industries.
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3. Multiply the rank score assigned in Step 2 by the number of jobs in that industry calculated in Step 1. This value is the weighted score for each industry. 4. Sum the weighted scores for all industries to generate a total weighted destination side score for each route. 5. Normalize destination side scores on a scale of 0 to 5, with 5 being the route with the highest destination side score, and 0 being the route with the lowest destination side score. The total weighted and normalized destination side scores for each route are shown in Table 4.18 below. The complete tables for each employment sector are included in Appendix B. Table 4.18: Destination Side Score Summary
Total Weighted Destination Score Route Destination Score (0-5)
Route 1 66,128 4.5 Route 2 70,728 5.0 Route 3 38,678 1.8 Route 4 30,204 1.0 Route 5A 20,592 0.0 Route 5B 23,555 0.3 Route 6 54,074 3.3
Results The total route score is determined by summing the demand side score and the destination side score to produce a total route score with a 0 to 10 range of possible values. A summary of the demand side, destination side, and total route scores are shown for each local fixed bus route in Table 4.19 below. Table 4.19: Route Evaluation Matrix Summary Results
Total Weighted Total Route Total Weighted Demand Score Destination Score Route Destination Score Demand Score (0-5) (0-5) Score (0-10) Route 1 686,210 5.0 66,128 4.5 9.5 Route 2 564,630 3.6 70,728 5.0 8.6 Route 3 611,283 4.2 38,678 1.8 6.0 Route 4 392,403 1.7 30,204 1.0 2.6 Route 5A 276,082 0.4 20,592 0.0 0.4 Route 5B 242,231 0.0 23,555 0.3 0.3 Route 6 668,633 4.8 54,074 3.3 8.1
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The matrix scores correlate well with the ridership and productivity of Laketran’s local fixed bus route service. Route 1, which has the highest ridership and passengers per revenue hour in the system, is the highest performing route in the evaluation matrix. Routes 2 and 6 also performed very well on both the demand and destination sides, indicating that these routes provide good connections between where people are living and the jobs, services, and other destinations in western Lake County. The demand side of Route 3 significantly outperforms the destination side, which is logical considering the predominately residential service area of this route. On the other end of the performance spectrum are Routes 4, 5A and 5B. The lower-level performance of Routes 5A and 5B is primarily the result of their very small service areas. Because these routes are operated as 30-minute one-way loops, they have much smaller service areas than the 60-minute bidirectional routes in the system, and therefore there are fewer people and jobs within ¼ mile of the route. Route 4 performs better than Routes 5A and 5B simply because it covers a much larger service area spanning the eastern half of the county. Although there are few destinations in the Route 4 service area, the demand side performs slightly better due to the percentage of low income, youth, and minority populations and rental housing that are higher than the county average.
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Dial-a-Ride Performance – Trapeze Analysis Because Dial-a-Ride service is so different than fixed route service, a different set of metrics apply in evaluating the paratransit service. The metrics are different because the style and operation of the service differs greatly from those used in a traditional fixed route analysis. Metrics that are used to determine paratransit performance include average trip time and distance, average speed, on-time performance, average wait time, and the breakdown of trips based on passenger type (i.e. ADA vs. general resident). These metrics can be used to assess how efficient the paratransit service is and how the system is used by Laketran residents. In September of 2012, an analysis of the data in the Laketran paratransit scheduling system was conducted by Laketran. Various data sets were retrieved that included trip by fare type, number of new enrollments, and various trip characteristics. This analysis will help identify issues with the Laketran Dial-a-Ride system and where improvements can be made. Dial-a-Ride New Customer Enrollments Within the past ten years, new enrollments for Dial-a-Ride reached its peak in 2005 with 2,568 new Dial-a-Ride customers, an increase of 60.2 percent from 2004 enrollments. However, since 2005 enrollments have decreased with only two years (2007 and 2011) showing increases in enrollments but at very small rates (less than 1 percent), as shown in Table 4.20. More recently, enrollments took a large dive in 2012 with a 15.3 percent drop from the previous year at only 1,292 enrollments. For 2013, enrollments are projected to be approximately 1,200. Table 4.20: New Dial-a-Ride Enrollments by Year
Number of Percentage Year New Change Enrollments 2004 1,547 - 2005 2,568 60.2% 2006 2,289 12.2% 2007 2,387 0.04% 2008 2,196 0.09% 2009 1,556 0.41% 2010 1,446 0.08% 2011 1,490 0.10% 2012 1,292 15.3% 2013 495 -
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Dial-a-Ride Trip Characteristics In 2012, Laketran provided Dial-a-Ride service for 251,448 passengers. The majority of these passengers, 184,341 (73%) were transported directly by Laketran, while 67,107 (27%) were carried by third-party subcontractors. Of the total number of passengers carried, only 5.8% were required to be transported under the ADA because Laketran operates only 6 local fixed routes covering a limited area of Lake County (albeit the most populous areas of the county). If Laketran only provided the minimum complementary paratransit service required by the ADA, over 94% of Laketran’s passengers would have no service at all. In 2008, Laketran provided Dial-a-Ride service for 369,164 passengers. The decline in ridership between 2008 and 2012 is attributed to two factors: (1) back-to-back fare increases in 2008 and 2009; and (2) the elimination of weeknight evening and Saturday Dial-a-Ride service also in 2009. Operationally, individual trip characteristics have remained constant over the four year span as average trip times, average trip distances, average trip speeds are almost identical between the two sample time periods as shown in Table 4.21. Where Laketran excels is in its ability to accommodate the number of requests it has for Dial-a-Ride. In 2008, Laketran had to turn down 1,232 requests for Dial-a-Ride trips, which is about 0.3 percent of the trips carried in the same period. This number greatly improved by 2012, where only 96 requests for Dial-a-Ride trips were refused which resulted in an 88.6 percent decrease in the refusal rate. Dial-a-Ride also excelled at on-time performance where 83.9 percent of trips were on-time in 2012. Despite a decrease in on-time performance since 2008 (86.2 percent), operating 4 out of 5 trips being on-time is commendable recognizing the large number of seniors and people with physical and cognitive disabilities that Laketran carries. Table 4.21: Dial-a-Ride Trip Characteristics
2008 2012 Average Trip Time (Minutes) 40 43 Average Trip Distance (Miles) 7.6 8.5 Average Speed (Miles per Hour) 10.0 9.4 Total Passenger Trips 369,164 251,448 Total ADA Passengers 2,819 14,810 (Percentage) (0.7%) (5.8%)
Refusals 1,232 96
On-Time Percentage 86.2% 83.9%
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Trip Type Breakdown Since Dial-a-Ride is open to the general public, Laketran’s distribution of trips among its Dial-a-Ride operation is more complex than other agencies that only offer the service to ADA eligible riders. The breakdown of trip type provided by the Trapeze scheduling system shows that the largest source of Dial-a-Ride ridership in 2012 comes from seniors and ADA-eligible registered riders at 66 percent of all rides. These trips are scheduled directly by Laketran and operated by Laketran and one subcontractor, Willo Transportation. The second largest source of ridership is derived from health and human service agencies* that contract with Laketran to transport residents with cognitive and mental disabilities to and from their destinations. This type of ridership accounted for 30 percent of rides in 2012, as shown in Table 4.22. Since Dial-a-Ride is open to the general public, a number of riders are those that pay the full fare. Full fare, non-disabled riders accounted for more than 5,800 rides or 2.9 percent of the Dial-a-Ride operation in 2012. Table 4.22: Dial-a-Ride Trip Types
Fare Type Total Trips Percentage Senior & Disabled 132,021 65.8% Senior Going Out-of-County 3,304 1.6% Beacon Health* 10,739 5.3% Lake County Board of Developmental Disabilities (LCBDD)* 26,531 13.2% Veterans* 6,688 3.3% Department of Job and Family Services (DJFS)* 14,642 7.3% Society for Rehabilitation* 839 0.4% Full Fare 5,803 2.9% Child 321 0.2% Attendant 321 0.2% Full Out-of-County 94 0.0% TOTAL 201,303 100.0%
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Conclusion Laketran will be presented with a number of challenges Laketran’s existing services are over the next ten years, many of which are the result of adequate to meet the demand of changing demographics and emerging development the past, but cannot meet the patterns. However, the aging population of the county, increases in transit propensity related to changing transit needs of Lake County’s demographics and higher fuel prices, and demand future. The growth in the senior generated by new and expanded development in the population and the need for a county will provide Laketran with opportunities to new type of service to provide increase its ridership and its importance to the connections to the industries community. Laketran’s challenge will be finding the along Tyler Boulevard and the financial resources to take advantage of these concentration of medical opportunities. services around TriPoint Hospital At the macro level, Laketran fixed route services are are just two of a number of new adequate. The agency provides a basic level of fixed transit needs that cannot be met route transit service in the county’s highest activity by Laketran without additional corridors and areas, with its east-west network and revenue. weekday hourly service. Laketran’s fixed route network does a good job in connecting to many of the activity centers that are located along its fixed route network. However, there are commercial, industrial and residential areas and travel patterns that lack service, and can now only be served by Dial-a-Ride service. A number of currently unserved areas, such as the industrial corridor along Tyler Boulevard and the medical facilities anchored by TriPoint Medical Center in Concord Township, are too important to the community for Laketran to continue to not serve them; however, they are located in lower-density areas that will be difficult to serve with traditional forms of transit. A new, innovative type of transit service, will be required to provide the appropriate level of service to these areas cost effectively. Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride system receives praise from its customers for the high quality of the “door- through-door” service provided by Laketran’s operators. However, both the Dial-a-Ride and fixed route bus service receive criticism for their short service day and lack of weekend/holiday service. The population of Lake County has not grown significantly in the past thirty years and projections do not indicate much growth in the near future. Residential densities are expected to remain fairly constant as well, meaning that the areas in the western part of the county where Laketran is already providing fixed route service will retain the density required to continue supporting that service. However, the senior population of Lake County is growing rapidly; from 2000 to 2010, the population age 65 and older grew by more than 15 percent, the result of Lake County residents aging in-place. The growth in the number of seniors undoubtedly will result in higher demand for paratransit service, which is already the fastest growing component of Laketran’s operating budget. These trends will mean higher transit ridership in the future than in the past. However, the cost of serving this aging population will put pressure on Lake County services, as the aging population will have less support from their families than they might have had in times past. The disabled and aging residents will have less opportunity and support to leave their homes and may rely on government to provide assistance in a variety of areas, including transportation.
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In contrast with projected stagnation in population density, employment in Lake County is expected to grow over the next ten years. In addition to the recently opened TriPoint Medical Center and University Hospitals Health Center in Concord Township, additional planned healthcare developments in Concord Township and Mentor, and the growth in manufacturing jobs along Tyler Boulevard will present challenges for Laketran, both in providing access to new areas, and in coordinating with industries whose operating hours do not match up well with Laketran’s current service hours. Finally, the greatest challenge that Laketran is likely to face over the next ten years will be determining how to balance the allocation of its limited resources to meet the transportation needs of markets that often do not intersect. Laketran’s existing passenger base consists of three distinct markets that align with its services: commuter, local fixed route, and paratransit. It is probable that, given the aging population of Lake County and the rising cost of gasoline, the demand for each of these services is likely to rise over the next ten years. Without an increase in revenue, it will be difficult for Laketran to increase service to any one of these markets.
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Chapter 5: Service Area Micro-Analysis
A closer look at the current state of Laketran is valuable as it will allow some insight as to where the agency is destined for into 2024. A number of surveys were initiated with the kick-off of this study including various on-board surveys, customer satisfaction surveys, and a community attitude survey. This chapter will present the various results of the surveys and highlight the important take away points from each. This chapter is divided into two sections. The first section presents the results of the various surveys and interviews conducted including the results of each and their highlights. The second section provides a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) Analysis of Laketran that takes a comprehensive review of the agency in order to gain a better look at what lies ahead in near-term and long-term.
On-Board Survey An on-board survey was conducted in conjunction with the passenger count of all Laketran routes and trips in March of 2012. During this period, more than 750 surveys were collected. Surveys were distributed on buses as passengers boarded. Passengers were asked to fill them out on-board the bus, return them to the passenger counter, or hand them to any Laketran driver or mail them to the Laketran office at a later time. The surveys asked riders to indicate the location where they started, and intended to end, their current trip (origin/destination), the purpose of their trip, how often they use Laketran services, and how pleased they are with various aspects of Laketran’s service. The survey also requested personal information including age, gender, race, and income, for classification purposes. The survey form and results can be found in Appendix C.
Trip Origins and Destinations The first section of the on-board survey asked respondents where they boarded and alighted the bus and where their respective trips began and ended, such as their home or office address. This would enable Laketran to spatially analyze where their riders are boarding and alighting, and it would also allow Laketran to see if any concentrations of origins or destinations within their service region but outside the reach of the existing fixed-route bus system. For the local fixed route bus service, the most common destinations were the County Administration Building in downtown Painesville, Lakeland Community College, the Great Lakes Mall, the Shoregate Shopping Center, the intersection of E. 276 Street and Euclid Avenue in Euclid (transfer to Greater Cleveland RTA Route 28), Bryant and Stratton College in Eastlake, and the Super Walmart in Eastlake. The most common destinations for the commuter express service included the Federal Building on East 9th Street and a number of other destinations along East 9th Street between Lakeside Avenue and Euclid Avenue in downtown Cleveland. Other frequently cited destinations in downtown Cleveland include 101 Prospect Avenue, Key Bank Tower, Terminal Tower at Public Square, and Cleveland State University. The locations of the various trip destinations provided by riders both within Lake County and downtown Cleveland for local and commuter express service are provided in Figures 5.1 and 5.2.
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Figure 5.1: Trip Destinations in Lake County
Figure 5.2: Trip Destinations in Downtown Cleveland
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Trip Purpose The second portion of the survey asked riders to choose a reason for their trip. This question is the first of a number of questions where there are key differences between transit dependent riders and choice riders (those who can afford to drive but choose to use transit). Transit dependent people use transit for virtually all of their travel, while choice riders usually use transit only for work or school trips, usually trips in which an auto trip would be impacted by high costs (due to trip length and parking charges), by traffic congestion, or some combination of the two. The survey asked respondents whether they used the service on this trip to get to work, home, school, a medical appointment, shopping or run errands, a recreational purpose (i.e. gym, senior center), to visit someone, or some other purpose. Figure 5.3 presents the results for both local fixed route bus and commuter express services. The survey results indicate that commuter express riders use Laketran solely to travel between work or school and home, while riders use the local bus service for a varied number of reasons. Figure 5.3: Trip Purpose by Type of Service
250
200
150
100 Local Fixed Route Bus
50 Commuter Express
0
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Demographics Demographic information about the riders was collected through the survey. These included characteristics such as gender, age, home ownership status, disability status, race/ethnicity, and annual household income. This information also helps Laketran to identify the type of riders that it typically serves and to tailor its services to better meet their needs. It also helps in identifying the population cohorts that aren’t using Laketran services and encourage the agency to find ways to attract these choice riders to public transit. The following section breaks down the various demographic characteristics from the results of the survey. Gender Of the 750 surveys collected, 651 of the respondents answered the gender question. The responses of the survey were generally equal among both genders with 321 (49.3 percent) males and 330 (50.7 percent) females, shown in Figure 5.4. Users of the local fixed route bus service were slightly more likely to be males: 203 (54 percent) males, 189 (46 percent) females. Users of the commuter express service were slightly more likely to be females: 141 respondents (51.8 percent) females compared to 118 (48.2 percent) males. Figure 5.4: Gender of Laketran Passengers
Commuter Express 141 (51.8%) 118 (48.2%)
Female Male
Local Fixed Route Bus 189 (45.6%) 203 (54.4%)
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Age Age is a valuable statistic because riders of different age groups have different preferences and transit needs. The percentage of respondents by age group is shown in Figure 5.5. Users of local fixed route bus service tended to be younger, with the two biggest age groups being the 18-24 age group (34 percent of all respondents) and the 25-34 age group (19 percent). Senior citizens (over age 64) represented only 3 percent of riders on the local fixed route bus service. The small presence of senior citizens on-board the local bus service is likely due to Laketran’s extensive Dial-a-Ride service, which persons 60 and older are eligible to use at a reduced fare, regardless of their disability status.
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Commuter express service users tended to be older, with the two biggest age groups being those in the 45-54 age group (35 percent) and in the 55-64 age group (28 percent). These two age groups together accounted for two-thirds of the commuter express survey respondents. There are relatively few riders over age 64 using commuter express service. This is not surprising given the nature of the commuter express service, the schedule and operating patterns of which are closely aligned to day shift workers and students in downtown Cleveland. The market for service to downtown Cleveland for older people is further hampered by the relative lack of shopping and activity opportunities in downtown Cleveland. The commuter express service, as it is currently constituted, does not provide a direct transit connection to University Circle and the Cleveland Clinic area; connections to that area would require a transfer to Greater Cleveland RTA’s HealthLine Corridor Bus Rapid Transit service. A direct connection to University Circle and the medical and cultural attractions in it could potentially attract more senior residents to use the service. However, this option must be weighed against the cost of extending the service and adding trips to provide convenient service for the University Circle market. Perhaps more concerning is the relatively small number of commuter express users below the age of 35. As the pie chart in Figure 5.5 shows, only 15 percent are between 35 and 44 and only 14 percent are between 25 and 34. Put another way, the total number of users under age 35 is about the same as the number of users in the largest age cohort (age 45-54), with each group representing about 35 percent of the total. This pattern reflects a number of factors, including the relative decline of downtown Cleveland as a regional employment center, and the greater opportunities available to potential workers within Lake County and in nearby areas of Cuyahoga County such as the Chagrin Highlands and I-271 corridor. Figure 5.5: Age of Laketran Passengers
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Home Ownership Home ownership is another characteristic that allows the agency to distinguish between choice riders and transit dependent riders, with those who own homes less likely to be transit dependent. Respondents on the local fixed route bus service were predominantly renters, with 302 respondents and 82 percent of the total count, as shown in Figure 5.6. However, on commuter express, most of the riders (207 respondents and 83 percent of the total count) were homeowners. Figure 5.6: Home Ownership for Laketran Passengers
Commuter Express 207 (82.8%) 43 (17.2%)
Own Rent
Local Fixed Route Bus 67 (18.2%) 302 (81.8%)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Vehicle Availability Survey respondents were asked the number of cars that are available in their household. The options were 0, 1, 2, or 3 or more vehicles. The results are shown in Figure 5.7. This question helps to identify users that are most likely to be transit dependent, such as those with no vehicles available to their household, or those who are in vehicle-deficient households, in which there are more drivers in the household than there are vehicles available. For local fixed route bus service, a large number of riders (44 percent) reported that they currently lived in a household that had no access to a vehicle, with another 32 percent only having one car available. In contrast, only a handful of commuter express riders had no access to a vehicle (3.8 percent), with most of the riders (51 percent) reporting that they have two cars available at their household. This suggests that commuter express service users are generally not using the service because of lack of car availability, but perhaps for other reasons, such as to avoid gasoline or parking costs, to avoid roadway congestion, or to use the time on the bus for other activities, such as reading or using a computer.
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Figure 5.7: Vehicles Available for Laketran Passengers
Passengers with Driving-Impairing Disabilities Riders were surveyed about their disability status and whether their disability prevents them from driving. This question identifies the percentage of users who are transit dependent because of disability, but who chose to use fixed route services, at least some of the time, rather than using Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service. Of the 750 surveys collected, 644 riders answered this question with only 7.6 percent (49) of the riders responding that they have a driving-impairing disability, as shown in Figure 5.8. Dividing the results between local fixed route bus and commuter express, the survey finds that about 12 percent of local fixed route bus users indicated that they have a disability that prevents them from driving, while less than 2 percent of commuter express users (4 of 254 respondents) indicated disability, as shown in Figure 5.8. This indicates that a significant number of Laketran’s disabled population is using the local fixed route bus service at least some of the time. However, it is unclear whether these disabilities would qualify them for using Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service, in spite of the respondents’ belief that their disability makes them unable to drive. Figure 5.8: Laketran Passengers with Disability that Prevents them from Driving
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Race Riders were also asked to supply there race on the survey, to compare the diversity of transit patronage to the diversity of the county as a whole. The results are shown in Figure 5.9. About 92 percent (233) of commuter express respondents identified themselves as White, non-Hispanic— similar to that group’s proportion of the Lake County population. Minorities were not well represented among commuter express riders, with only 8 percent (20) of respondents identifying as Black/African American, Hispanic, or other. However, minorities were over-represented among local fixed route bus riders, with only 58 percent (241) of local bus respondents identifying themselves as non-Hispanic Whites. Blacks/African-Americans represented 32.5 percent (135) of respondents, while Hispanics and others were not well-represented among local bus riders. Hispanics are a relatively small part of Lake County’s population, but are a significant and growing portion of Laketran’s ridership on local bus service. This group may have been under-represented in the survey, and Spanish-only speakers may have had difficulty completing the survey, as it was provided only in English. Figure 5.9: Race of Laketran Passengers
Annual Household Income Annual household income is a further indicator of whether the transit user is a choice or dependent user. Choice riders generally have a medium to high annual household income and use transit as a personal preference, while transit dependent riders generally have lower incomes. As shown in Figure 5.10, most of the riders that use local fixed route bus service report annual household incomes of less than $40,000 per year. Conversely, virtually all commuter express users report annual household incomes above $40,000 per year, with a significant percentage reporting household incomes exceeding $100,000 per year.
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Figure 5.10: Annual Household Income of Laketran Passengers
On-Board Survey Summary The results of this survey describe two very different populations using Laketran’s local fixed route and commuter express services. Local fixed route bus riders are younger, more racially diverse, have lower incomes, are more likely to live in rented housing and less likely to have a car than the average Lake County resident. Commuter Express riders are more typical of Lake County residents: White, middle aged, middle income home owners who have access to a vehicle and choose to use Laketran out of some combination of frugality, convenience and other personal factors. Local fixed route bus users use transit for a variety of trips (for most of their trips, since many are transit dependent). Commuter express riders use the service for only one kind of trip: their daily work or school commute. Laketran’s task in preparing this plan is to understand the differing desires of these populations, and determine whether each of the services can be modified to better serve their different public transit needs.
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Dial-a-Ride Survey To complement the on-board survey, a separate survey for Laketran Dial-a-Ride users was also distributed to gauge demographics, usage and impressions of the Dial-a-Ride service. In May of 2012, surveys were mailed to a sample of Dial-a-Ride users, who were asked to share their thoughts on the paratransit services provided by Laketran. Almost 300 completed surveys were received out of a total of 1,000 surveys mailed-out, resulting in a 30 percent response rate, which is considered to be a high response rate for a survey of this type.
Respondents were asked in the survey to share their opinions about the performance of the Dial-a- Ride service and their reasons for using the service rather than the local fixed route bus service. Users also were asked to rate their experience with Dial-a-Ride services using the same agree- disagree rating method used in the customer satisfaction survey. Finally, users were asked to share some personal data to allow Laketran to create a profile of its Dial-a-Ride users and to determine whether opinions about the service vary by demographic characteristics.
The Dial-a-Ride survey form and results are included in Appendix C.
Demographics Respondents to the Dial-a-Ride survey were asked for the same demographic information as respondents to the on-board survey (for local fixed route bus and commuter express services) for the purpose of comparing the passenger base for both fixed route and paratransit services in Lake County and identifying the demographic groups using the service in order to better meet their needs. These included characteristics such as gender, age, home ownership status, disability status, race, and annual household income. Gender The results of the on-board survey indicate that Laketran’s fixed route service is used by nearly even numbers of males and females, with slightly higher female ridership on the local fixed route bus service and slightly higher male ridership on the commuter express service. The gender divide among respondents to the Dial-a-Ride service was far more unbalanced, with 173 female respondents (65 percent) and 93 male respondents (35 percent), as shown in Figure 5.11. Figure 5.11: Gender of Dial-a-Ride Passengers
Dial‐A‐Ride 93 (35.0%) 173 (65.0%) Male Female
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Age The results of the on-board survey indicate that local fixed route passengers tend to be younger (53 percent were between 18 and 34 years); while commuter express passengers tend to be middle aged (63 percent were between 45 and 64 years). Seniors (age 65 and older) comprised only 3 percent of the local fixed route bus and 2 percent of the commuter express passenger base. The Dial-a-Ride passenger base is much older; 32 percent of Dial-a-Ride respondents were in the 45-59 age group, and 56 percent were 65 and older, as shown in Figure 5.12. The high use of Dial-a-Ride by senior citizens is likely the direct result of Laketran’s policy to provide reduced fares to passengers over the age of 60, regardless of disability status. Figure 5.12: Age of Dial-a-Ride Passengers
0% 0% Under 18
7% 7% 18‐24 5% 25‐34 12% 35‐44 45‐59 8% 24% 60‐64 65‐69
12% 70‐74 75‐79 8% 8% 80‐84 9% 85‐90 Over 90
Home Ownership Respondents to the Dial-a-Ride survey were slightly more likely to rent than own their homes. The As shown in Figure 5.13, Dial-a-Ride passenger home ownership rate (45.6 percent) falls between the local fixed route bus (18.2 percent) and commuter express (82.8 percent) home ownership rates. Figure 5.13: Home Ownership for Dial-a-Ride Passengers
Dial‐A‐Ride 119 (45.6%) 142 (54.4%) Own Rent
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Vehicle Availability Approximately half of the Dial-a-Ride respondents live in households where there is no vehicle available, and an additional 37 percent have only one vehicle, as shown in Figure 5.14. The survey results indicate that Dial-a-Ride passengers are even more likely to be from a transit dependent or vehicle-deficient household than local fixed route bus passengers. Figure 5.14: Vehicle Available for Dial-a-Ride Passengers
4% 11%
0 48% 1 2 3 or more 37%
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Driving-Impairing Disabilities More than half of the Dial-a-Ride respondents said that they had a disability that prevents them from driving, which far exceeds the percentage of local fixed route bus (12 percent) and commuter express (2 percent) passengers with a driving-impairing disability, as shown in Figure 5.15. This is another indication that Dial-a-Ride is the preferred mode of transit for disabled residents in Lake County. Figure 5.15: Dial-a-Ride Passengers with Disability that Prevents them from Driving
44% Yes No 56%
Race The racial composition of Dial-a-Ride passengers is proportionate to the Lake County population as a whole, with the exception of Hispanics who are slightly underrepresented (0.7 percent of Dial-a-Ride survey respondents and 3.6 percent of the county population), as shown in Figure 5.16. As with the on-board survey, the underrepresentation of Hispanics may be the result of the Dial-a-Ride survey only being offered in English. Figure 5.16: Race of Dial-a-Ride Passengers
1% 1% 1% 1% White 4% Black or African American
Asian or Pacific Islander
American Indian or Alaska Native Hispanic (of any race) 92% Other
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Annual Household Income As shown in Figure 5.17, Dial-a-Ride passengers are primarily very low-income residents, with 32 percent of respondents having an annual household income of less than $10,000 and 40 percent of respondents less than $20,000. The percentage of Dial-a-Ride survey respondents with annual household incomes below $40,000 (91 percent) is greater than for local fixed route bus passengers (82 percent). Figure 5.17: Annual Household Income of Dial-a-Ride Passengers
2% 2% 1%
4% Less than $10,000
32% $10,000 ‐ $20,000 19% $20,000 ‐ $40,000 $40,000 ‐ $60,000 $60,000 ‐ $80,000 $80,000 ‐ $100,000 Greater than $100,000 40%
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Trip Purpose Dial-a-Ride users were asked for what purpose they use Dial-a-Ride services. Riders were encouraged to mark as many of the options that were applicable. The results are shown in Figure 5.18. The most frequent use for Dial-a-Ride service was to travel to/from medical appointments, with 70 percent of respondents using the service for that reason. Other common responses included using the service for shopping or errands (35 percent), social/recreation (20 percent), and work or senior center (each 15 percent). Figure 5.18: Trip Purpose
Frequency of Use Users were asked to share how often they use Dial-a-Ride services on a weekly basis or, if less than weekly, on a monthly basis. Twenty-eight percent of the respondents said that they use Dial-a-Ride services less than once a month, as shown in Table 5.1. For those that use the service more often, one to two times per week was the most frequent response, with 21 percent of users, followed by those that use it less than once a week but more than once a month, at 19 percent. Table 5.1: Frequency of Use
How often do you use Dial-a-Ride services? (Every time you get on board a bus counts as one time.) Response Response Answer Options Percent Count More than 10 times per week 3.5% 10 8-10 times per week 7.3% 21 5-7 times per week 9.8% 28 3-4 times per week 12.2% 35 1-2 times per week 21.0% 60
Less than once a week 19.2% 55 Less than once a month 28.0% 80 answered question 286 skipped question 8
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Use of Local Fixed Route Bus Service Riders were asked if they also used Laketran local fixed route bus service in addition to the Dial-a- Ride service. If they answered they didn’t use the local bus service, they were asked to select the most important reason why they do not use the service. The results are shown in Table 5.2. The survey found that a large number of Dial-a-Ride survey respondents (28 percent, 76 respondents) also use local fixed route bus service. Of the 72 percent of the respondents that do not, the most cited reason (34 percent, 92 respondents) is they feel more comfortable using Dial-a-Ride service. Table 5.2: Use of Local Bus Service
Do you use Laketran’s local bus routes? (Check all that apply.) Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Yes, I use the local bus routes. I ride route(s): (Enter in space below.) 28.1% 76 No, because there is no local bus route near my home. What is the nearest 23.3% 63 intersection to your home? (Enter in space below) No, because the local bus routes don’t serve my destination(s). 17.0% 46 No, because I am more comfortable using the Dial-a-Ride service. 34.1% 92 No, because I have a disability that prevents me from using the local bus. 28.1% 76 No, because I cannot get to a bus stop due to lack of sidewalks, rough terrain, 12.6% 34 path of travel is too steep, no accessible bus shelter/stop, etc. Open ended responses: 95 answered question 270 skipped question 24
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Potential for Switching to Local Fixed Route Bus Service Riders were asked to consider a scenario in which local bus service was offered free of charge for people with disabilities. They were then asked if, in such a scenario, they would consider switching from Dial-a-Ride service to the free local bus service. The responses are shown in Table 5.3. Only a small number (6.3 percent, 17 respondents) said they would switch all of their trips to the local bus service. Most of the respondents (more than 75 percent) said they would still only use Dial-a-Ride service. Some of the reasons for continuing to use Dial-a-Ride include a lack of local bus service near their origin or destination, a disability that prevents them from using local bus service, a preference for door-through-door service, having drivers assist with packages, and being more comfortable with, or having a preference for, the Dial-a-Ride service. Table 5.3: Potential for Switching to Local Service
If local bus routes were free for people with disabilities, would you switch from Dial-a-Ride? (Check only one.)
Response Response Answer Options Percent Count
I would definitely switch to local bus for all trips. 6.3% 17 I would switch to local bus for some trips. 17.1% 46 I would prefer to continue using Dial-a-Ride service. 48.0% 129 I have no local bus service available. 13.0% 35 My disability prevents me from using the local bus. 22.3% 60 No, because I cannot get to a bus stop due to lack of sidewalks, rough terrain, path of travel is too steep, no 13.8% 37 accessible bus shelter/stop, etc. answered question 269 skipped question 25
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Transportation Options Riders were asked to share what transportation options they have besides Laketran Dial-a-Ride services in order to determine how vital the service is to its users. Less than half of the respondents (44 percent) have another means of transportation, provided either by a caregiver or a family member, as shown in Figure 5.19. Almost 40 percent of the respondents claim to have no alternative transportation to Dial-a-Ride service and depend on it entirely for their transportation needs. Figure 5.19: Transportation Options
Do you have another means of transportation besides Dial-a-Ride? (Check all that apply.)
50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% I do not have another I have another means of I have another means of means of transportation. transportation, a care transportation, but I giver or family member. prefer to use Dial-a-Ride.
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Rider Options If Dial-a-Ride Were Not Available Riders were asked to consider what the effect would be on their lives if the Dial-a-Ride service were not available. The responses are shown in Figure 5.20. The largest response, with more than 80 percent, said that they would no longer be able to get to their medical appointments. The next most cited response (nearly 30 percent) was the user would not be able to live independently. Figure 5.20: If Dial-a-Ride Did Not Exist
If Dial-a-Ride was not available, would you be at risk for any of the following? (Check all that apply.)
90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% I would likely lose I would not be I would not be I would not be my job. able to live alone, able to get to able to get to independently. medical college/vocational appointments. school.
Benefits of Laketran Users were provided with a description of five unique benefits or policies of Laketran and were asked to mark the ones of which they had knowledge of prior to the survey. The results are shown in Table 5.4. Users were most aware of Laketran’s policy of offering Dial-a-Ride service anywhere within Lake County, which is a policy that goes above and beyond the requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act (mandates service within ¾ mile of fixed route bus alignments) that is not offered by many other transit agencies nationwide. About 70 percent of respondents were aware of the benefits of this policy. Nearly 70 percent were aware that Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride fare policy charges seniors, ages 60 plus, and people with disabilities $2.50 per trip, also going above-and-beyond the ADA policy that allows transit agencies to charge double the standard fixed route fare, which would be $3.50 per trip. Only slightly more than half of respondents said that they were aware of Laketran’s policy to allow non-elderly or disabled members of the general public to use Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service at a premium fare ($10.00 each way). Respondents were least familiar with Laketran’s discount on local bus service for seniors and people with disabilities, with fares set at $0.75 per trip throughout the day.
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Table 5.4: Benefits Unique to Laketran
Which benefits does Laketran provide to its customers that many other transit agencies do not? (Please check the items that you are aware of.) Response Response Answer Options Percent Count Laketran provides Dial-a-Ride service to seniors and people with disabilities anywhere in Lake County. Many other transit agencies restrict travel to within 70.2% 170 ¾ miles of the local fixed route service. Laketran offers Dial-a-Ride service to the general public. Many other transit 52.1% 126 agencies restrict Dial-a-Ride to people with disabilities. Laketran provides seniors and people with disabilities with reduced Dial-a- Ride fares ($2.50 per trip.) Many other transit systems charge seniors and 69.4% 168 people with disabilities twice the regular fixed route bus fare ($3.50 per trip.) Laketran allows seniors and people with disabilities to ride local, in-county fixed route services for a reduced fare ($0.75 per trip) any time of the day. 37.2% 90 Many other transit agencies only allow reduced fares between 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. Laketran allows seniors and people with disabilities to ride at a reduced fare at age 60. Many other transit agencies require seniors to be 65 to be eligible 41.3% 100 for reduced fares. answered question 242 skipped question 52
Improvements to Dial-a-Ride Users were asked to rank a number of options for improving Dial-a-Ride service. Respondents were asked to rank each potential improvement on a scale of 1-4, with 4 being the most preferable improvement and 1 being the least. The results are shown in Table 5.5. The option that was most preferable was Saturday service, with 79 respondents marking that as their most preferred improvement. This was followed by operating on holidays such as Martin Luther King Day and Columbus Day, with 56 respondents making that their most preferred option, but this option also had the largest number of respondents ranking it as the least preferred option. Table 5.5: Dial-a-Ride Improvements
If Laketran had the financial resources to add service, rank the following improvements in order of preference, (4 being the most preferable, 1 being the least preferable): Rating Response Answer Options 1 2 3 4 Average Count After 8:00 p.m. weeknights 69 60 43 43 2.28 215 Saturdays 36 39 61 79 2.85 215 Sundays 34 72 72 37 2.52 215 Holidays (Martin Luther King Day, Presidents 76 44 39 56 2.35 215 Day, Columbus Day and Veterans Day) answered question 215 skipped question 79
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Potential Dial-a-Ride Cuts The final question had riders consider a future scenario in which Laketran is facing a financial shortfall and is forced to reduce the cost of its Dial-a-Ride service. Riders were asked to rank which services they would rather see cut first among the following options: eliminate medical transportation to Cuyahoga County, limit total number of Dial-a-Ride trips per day (i.e. first-come, first-serve), eliminate assisted door-through-door service, cut back service span of Dial-a-Ride service, and eliminate reduced fares for riders between 60 and 64 years of age. The respondents were asked to rank these five options on a scale of 1-5, with 1 as being the option they would cut last and 5 being the option they would cut first. As shown in Table 5.6, respondents preferred that the fare reduction for riders between 60 and 64 years of age be cut first (this implies that they believe it is the least important aspect of the service). The service that respondents wanted cut first (that is to say, the service they thought was the most important) was providing medical transportation into Cuyahoga County. Table 5.6: Laketran Dial-a-Ride Cuts
If Laketran did not have the financial resources and had to cut service, rank in order of which service you would cut first, (5 being the one that you would cut first, 1 being the one that you would cut last): Rating Response Answer Options 1 2 3 4 5 Average Count Eliminate medical transportation into Cuyahoga 65 42 33 19 54 2.79 213 County Limit total number of Dial-a-Ride trips that Laketran 38 47 49 39 40 2.98 213 provides per day (first come, first served) Eliminate assisted door-through-door service and 45 52 43 51 22 2.78 213 instead pick-up and drop-off customers at the curb Cut back the hours when Dial-a-Ride is available 30 46 57 53 27 3.00 213 Eliminate reduced fares for senior citizens between 35 26 31 51 70 3.45 213 the ages of 60-64 answered question 213 skipped question 81
Dial-a-Ride Survey Summary The results of this survey describe a very distinct segment of the population using Laketran’s Dial-a- Ride service. Dial-a-Ride users are older and generally self-sufficient, but need some mobility assistance; they are likely to live alone; and have a very strong preference for Dial-a-Ride over Laketran’s fixed route bus service. Most Dial-a-Ride trips are for medical reasons (i.e. doctor’s appointments), with many of the users also unable to drive or use local fixed route service to complete these tasks. While one option to save costs is to encourage the use of Laketran’s local fixed route bus service, many appear to be unwilling to do so even with additional incentives (e.g. free fares).
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Customer Satisfaction Survey The purpose of the customer satisfaction survey was to gauge the perception of Laketran among existing passengers. These surveys were distributed to passengers throughout March and April of 2012, and riders were asked to fill out the survey and return it to the driver or mail it to the Laketran office. More than 370 surveys were collected, divided about evenly between local fixed route bus and commuter express service, with many representing users of both services. The survey asked riders to rate Laketran on the following characteristics: Driver friendliness and courtesy; Reasonableness of fares; Helpfulness of phone representatives; Meeting community needs; Meeting the needs of the disabled; Meeting the needs of people who need to get to work; Meeting the needs of seniors; Need for earlier or later bus service than currently exists; Higher frequency of service; Cleanliness of buses; Quality of bus stops and shelters; Personal safety and security on the bus or at stops; Buses show up on schedule; Buses go where riders need to go; and, What three things could Laketran do to improve your riding experience? The results of the survey are presented and discussed below. The survey form and results, including satisfaction rankings and customer service evaluations, can be found in Appendix C.
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Overall Customer Satisfaction The survey began by asking riders to rate their overall satisfaction with Laketran. The survey provided the following statement: “Overall, I am satisfied with Laketran services,” and asked respondents whether they agreed or disagreed with that statement, and how strongly. As indicated by the results shown in Figure 5.21, survey respondents generally are quite satisfied with Laketran service, as 93 percent of all respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement. For commuter express, an overwhelming number of respondents (95 percent) either agreed or strongly agreed with the statement. Local fixed route bus also fared well, with 90 percent of respondents also agreeing or strongly agreeing with the statement. Figure 5.21: Overall Customer Satisfaction
Overall, I am satisfied with Laketran services.
All Respondents Strongly Disagree Disagree Commuter Express Neutral Agree Local, in‐county bus Strongly Agree
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Fare Structure Survey respondents were asked how strongly they agreed or disagreed with the statement “Laketran fares are reasonable.” Generally, Laketran customers are satisfied with fares. Commuter express passengers were generally satisfied, with more than half of commuter express respondents saying they were “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with fares. However, 17 percent of commuter express respondents said they disagreed or strongly disagreed that fares were reasonable. For local fixed route bus service, only about 5 percent of respondents said they disagreed that fares are reasonable. This indicates while most commuter express service users recognize the relatively low cost of the service compared to the alternative of driving a private automobile to Cleveland, a significant number do not consider the fare to be reasonable. This probably is a reaction to the rapid series of fare increases that occurred in the mid to late 2000s, which dramatically increased the cost of using the service within a short period of time and disproportionately targeted commuter express service among Laketran’s range of services.
Figure 5.22: Reasonableness of Fares
Laketran bus fares are reasonable.
All Respondents Strongly Disagree
Commuter Express Disagree Neutral Agree Local, in‐county bus Strongly Agree
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Employment Connectivity Laketran riders were asked to share their views on Laketran’s ability to connect the residents of Lake County to employment centers throughout the county and in Cleveland. Respondents were presented with the statement, “Laketran is meeting the needs of people who need to get to work,” and asked to rank whether, and how strongly, they agreed or disagreed with the statement. The results are shown in Figure 5.23. Respondents overwhelmingly agreed with the statement, but local fixed route bus users were markedly less satisfied with Laketran’s connection to jobs, with 14 percent disagreeing or strongly disagreeing. Commuter express users agreed with the statement at a higher rate, with more than 80 percent of respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing with the statement.
Figure 5.23: Getting to Work
Laketran is meeting the needs of people who need to get to work.
Strongly Disagree All Respondents Disagree Commuter Express Neutral Agree Local, in‐county bus Strongly Agree
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Service Span and Frequency Riders were asked to share their views on the service span or hours of operation of Laketran services. Riders were presented with the statement, “Buses need to operate earlier or later than they do now,” and asked whether and how strongly they agree or disagree with the statement. Results are shown in Figure 5.24. An overwhelming number of local fixed route bus respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement (85 percent), while a bare majority of commuter express users also agreed. Respondents also were presented with the statement, “Buses need to come more frequently.” Results are shown in Figure 5.25. Local fixed route bus riders again overwhelmingly agreed that buses should come more frequently, with 72 percent agreeing or strongly agreeing with the statement, while again commuter express users were more satisfied with the level of frequency on their service. The results of these two questions indicate relatively strong dissatisfaction with Laketran’s current service span. Figure 5.24: Service Span
Buses need to operate earlier or later than they do now.
All Respondents Strongly Disagree Disagree Commuter Express Neutral Agree Local, in‐county bus Strongly Agree 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Figure 5.25: Service Frequency
Buses need to come more frequently.
All Respondents Strongly Disagree
Commuter Express Disagree Neutral
Local, in‐county bus Agree Strongly Agree 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
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Community Attitude Survey The TRIAD Research Group conducted a general public telephone survey to determine how Lake County residents view Laketran and various transit issues. This survey was conducted on a random sample of 400 Lake County residents who are likely to vote in Lake County elections. The calls were distributed across the county in proportion to voter turnout in the November 2009 election. Upon completion, the results were weighted slightly based on age to be more representative of the county’s age profile. The survey was conducted between August 14 and 19, 2012. The community attitude survey has a margin of error of ± 5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. The survey had four purposes which included: • Gauging respondents’ general opinions of Laketran and its services. • Measuring support for a possible sales tax increase, which will be necessary to support additional Laketran services proposed by this plan, and voters’ verbatim reasons for voting for or against the tax. • Identifying possible reasons for voting against, such as the need, importance and cost of the proposed sales tax increase. • Examining potential reasons to support a sales tax increase for Laketran, including the importance of Laketran’s services to county residents and support for ways the money would be used. TRIAD has a history of conducting surveys for Laketran dating back to 1979, with the most recent in 2003. Where appropriate, comparisons of the 2002 and 2003 survey results conducted by TRIAD are provided to measure any changes in resident attitude. The goals of the survey were to gauge resident attitudes on the following subjects: • Satisfaction with Lake County • Laketran usage • Opinion of Laketran • Importance of services provided by Laketran • Use of tax money for Laketran investment Several terms are used in the following discussion that refers to a “vote movement” variable, which was created using the results for the two vote questions in the survey. The initial question asked if the respondent would definitely vote for, probably vote for, probably vote against or definitely vote against a ½ of one percent sales tax for Laketran. The question was repeated after the respondent had heard arguments for/against the tax issue. The definitions for the vote movement subgroups are as follows: • Strong For Voters: those who said they would definitely vote for the tax issue both times asked. • Weak For Voters: those who said they would only probably vote for the tax issue both times asked. If they said they would definitely vote for the tax issue in one question, and probably vote for the tax issue in the other question, they were considered weak for voters.
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• Moved Positive Voters: those who initially said they would vote against or were not sure but would vote for the tax issue when asked again, or those who initially said they would vote against but were not sure when asked again. • Undecided Voters: those who responded not sure to both questions. • Moved Negative Voters: those who said they would vote for the tax issue or were not sure in the first question but would vote against when asked again, or those who initially said they would vote for the tax issue but were not sure when asked again. • Against Voters: those who said they would vote against the issue in both questions. The results of the survey are presented and discussed below. The results of the TRIAD survey are provided in Appendix C.
Nearly all voters are satisfied with Lake County today, of which two-thirds are very satisfied. As shown in Figure 5.26, two-thirds or more of the surveyed residents were very satisfied with Lake County as a place to live.
Figure 5.26: Overall Satisfaction with Lake County as a Place to Live
Very Satisfied 67%
Somewhat Satisfied 29%
Somewhat Dissatisfied 3%
Very Dissatisfied <1%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Voters in the East Townships (53 percent) and Independents (59 percent), as well as those who moved positive on the sales tax (50 percent) and those who would vote against the issue (59 percent) were less apt to be very satisfied than voters overall. Also, the percentage of very satisfied residents increased with age from 57 percent among 18 to 34 year olds to 77 percent among senior citizens.
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Today, 30 percent of Lake County households have ridden Laketran in past few years. According to the survey, around 30 percent of Lake County residents have used Laketran services in recent years as shown in Figure 5.27. Figure 5.27: Percent who have Used Laketran Services in the Past Few Years
2002 31%
2003 36%
2012 30%
0% 50%
Over half (54 percent) of Strong For voters on the levy have ridden Laketran, as have 36 percent of Weak For voters, compared to only about a sixth of the remaining voter groups. Ridership appears to be a little higher in the Painesville and Concord (33 percent) and West End (31 percent) regions than in Mentor (27 percent) and the East Townships (28 percent). The younger age cohorts lead the way in Laketran ridership at 43 percent of 18 to 34 year olds responding that they have used Laketran services. Ridership was also slightly higher among Democrats (37 percent) and Independents (34 percent) than among Republicans (19 percent).
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A majority of voters have a favorable opinion of Laketran. Overall, 70 percent of voters have a favorable view of Laketran, as shown in Figure 5.28. Most of those who have used Laketran have a very (47 percent) or somewhat (35 percent) favorable opinion of Laketran, compared to only 64 percent of non-riders. One important observation is that these ratings were lower in 2012 than in 2002/2003, which is attributed to a consistent survey trend for public institutions in Lake County that reflects a change in public attitudes toward local tax levies in general. Figure 5.28: Public Opinion of Laketran
Against voters (48 percent favorable/32 percent unfavorable) was the only subgroup in which less than half have a favorable opinion of Laketran. Other subgroups with a slightly lower favorable rating included 35 to 49 year olds (56 percent/18 percent) and infrequent voters (51 percent/12 percent). The ‘not sure’ response was also slightly higher among these two groups (24 percent and 35 percent, respectively) than overall (16 percent).
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A majority of voters believe Laketran is a good steward of their tax money. About 64 percent agreed that Laketran does a good job with the tax money it receives, while the other third disagreed (16 percent) or didn’t know (21 percent), as shown in Figure 5.29. Figure 5.29: Laketran and its Use of its Finances
While this is a favorable result, the high “Don’t Know” response could make Laketran vulnerable on this issue, as the percent was higher among voters in the East Townships (30 percent), 35 to 49 year olds (27 percent), those that do not ride Laketran (25 percent), and infrequent voters (29 percent).
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Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride services are viewed as the most important service to provide by voters in Lake County. The survey indicates that, of all the Laketran services, Dial-a-Ride is the most important service to the Lake County public. As shown in Figure 5.30, 82 percent rated Dial-a-Ride as extremely or very important to provide, while 62 percent said this for local fixed route bus service and 53 percent for commuter express service to Cleveland. One factor to note is that all of the ratings were lower in 2012 than in 2002/2003, which is consistent with survey trends for other public institutions in Lake County and reflects changes in public attitudes toward local tax levies. Figure 5.30: Lake County and its Transportation Need
All of the subgroups rated Dial-a-Ride service highest in importance. Even 60 percent of those who said that they would vote against the sales tax said this is an extremely or very important service to provide. Arguments pertaining to Dial-a-Ride service for seniors and people with disabilities consistently tested better than other services provided by Laketran.
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Over half say they would support a sales tax increase for Laketran, but much of the support will need to be strengthened. A series of questions was presented that focused on the potential of support for a renewal of the existing sales tax or an increase. In the first vote question, 54 percent said they would vote for a ½ of one percent sales tax for Laketran while 40 percent were opposed, as shown in Figure 5.31. By the end of the survey, the percentage in favor improved to 62 percent, while 34 percent would still vote against. But support is ‘soft’ since more voters said they would only probably support the issue (36 percent both times) than said they would definitely vote for (18 percent initially, 26 percent second vote). Figure 5.31: Support for Laketran
There were a few subgroups in which less than half were Strong or Weak For voters, including 35 to 49 year olds (44 percent), those who have not ridden Laketran (45 percent), Republicans (48 percent) as well as Independents (46 percent), and those who voted in three (47 percent) or just two (41 percent) of the last four general elections. Support was higher among frequent voters, with 56 percent for and 11 percent who moved positive. The campaign will need the support of the moved positive voters, who were more likely to be voters in Painesville and Concord (15 percent), 18 to 34 year olds (19 percent) and infrequent voters (16 percent).
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Support increased for a renewal levy only of Laketran’s sales tax. After the second vote question on the ½ of one percent sales tax, those voting against or not sure were asked whether they would support a renewal of Laketran’s ¼ of one percent sales tax. An additional 25 percent of voters said they would support the renewal only, with 9 percent definitely for and 16 percent probably for, as shown in Figure 5.32. This is in addition to the 62 percent who would support the increase since they would likely also support a renewal.
Figure 5.32: Laketran and its Existing One-Quarter of One Percent Sales Tax
In the survey, the following were identified as reasons not to approve the increase: the perception of empty buses, the cost/affordability of the sales tax, and viewing other things (e.g. community priorities) as more important.
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Employee Interviews The consultant team also conducted a series of interviews with various groups of Laketran employees on May 9, 2012. The purpose of these meetings was four-fold: To identify the employee’s general impressions of the agency for which they work; To provide the consultants with a greater knowledge of the operation of the agency “from the inside”; To give employees the opportunity to contribute their ideas and input to the analysis of the agency and the development of the plan that will guide its future (including their priorities for future changes to the system; and To learn how Laketran users and members of the community view Laketran based on the interactions that the employees have with users of the service and their friends, families and acquaintances in the community.
The employee groups consisted of the following:
A group of operations administrative employees including various supervisors and dispatchers Two groups of administrative personnel including finance and marketing employees and various supervisors Several groups of drivers, including one group of primarily Dial-a-Ride and commuter express drivers and another group that mostly drive the local fixed bus routes. A group of customer service representatives
Interviewees displayed a high degree of agreement, if not unanimity, in their identification of the agency’s advantages and opportunities as well as the challenges that it faces, both internal and external. Employees generally agreed on a series of service improvements that should be pursued in the future, but were skeptical that the agency would ever have the funds to expand service to meet the community’s transit needs. The major themes identified in the interviews are listed below, and summarized in detail in the following sections. Pride and satisfaction with the agency, with their work, and the service they provide to Lake County residents; A sense of decline and growing dissatisfaction in the agency, particularly since budget cuts began in the mid-2000s; Increased communication between labor and management; Technical and organizational barriers that impair the agency’s and individuals’ ability to provide the best service; Proposed service improvements to address unmet transit needs in Lake County; and Concern and skepticism about the agency’s future, particularly in its ability to renew its sales tax in 2013 and to increase revenues in order to address current and future needs.
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Pride and Satisfaction Most Laketran employees, when asked what they like about Laketran and their jobs, expressed, in various ways, satisfaction in their ability to serve the public. Many employees said they enjoy their interactions with customers, and providing the customers with mobility that they would not otherwise be able to achieve and that transforms their lives. Others commented on the good performance of the agency: kind, attentive drivers, clean, well-maintained buses, good on-time performance, and employees at all levels who care about their jobs and about the customers. Many also commented on Laketran being a good employer that provides its employees with good pay, good benefits, and flexible schedules. A few commented on the agency’s success at meeting the challenges of the recession.
Decline and Growing Dissatisfaction There was discussion about some of the problems and challenges facing Laketran. Many have to do with the hard budget decisions that had to be made in the last decade which included drastic service cuts, non-replacement of departing employees, no raises for several years, etc. There is a sense that the morale in the agency is low. Passengers complain about the cuts in services. There are employee concerns and a sense that the agency has not kept up in terms of technology.
Proposed Service Improvements The employees suggested a wide range of service improvements with the most consistent theme being to reinstate Saturday service. Some of the suggestions include: • Saturday and Sunday service • Service to Lake Health TriPoint Hospital (reroute Route 5) • Shuttle on Tyler and Heisley Road to get people to work • Madison Shuttle should be expanded throughout Madison and Perry • Need real time arrival information in places like the mall • Higher service frequency on existing routes • University Circle service (for work and medical trips; all day) • Reinstate service like it was before the service cuts • More service to Lakeland Community College • Mentor Headlands, Mentor-on-the-Lake need to be served • Saturday bus service to the casino (Cleveland)
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Input from Riders to Laketran’s Marketing Department Appendix D presents a series of comments that have been received by Laketran’s marketing department. Many of these are requests are for restoration of weeknight, Saturday, and holiday service or for service from residents who are new to Lake County and are trying to reach a new location. Comments also reflect an increase demand for service to downtown Cleveland and University Circle. For the most part, the comments are positive and substantiate the importance Laketran plays in many people’s lives.
Survey Review The surveys that were conducted as part of the public outreach effort for the plan indicate that Laketran’s three services—Dial-a-Ride, local fixed route bus, and commuter express—are used by three distinct markets of Lake County residents. The Dial-a-Ride service is used primarily by people with disabilities, and by older, lower income people. These are primarily seniors, many with serious chronic medical conditions, who have aged in place, either remaining in their own homes (a sizable number are homeowners with incomes that are so low as to preclude buying a home, indicating that they are living in houses that they purchased during their working years) or moving into apartments or assisted living facilities as they have aged or become disabled. Local fixed route bus service is used by lower income, younger residents, new workers and students who tend to live in rented housing or with their parents, and are dependent or semi-dependent on transit, either because of income or disability status, or some combination of the two. Commuter express service is something of a mirror image of both of those groups. The typical commuter express customer is middle income and middle aged, a homeowner who has access to a vehicle, but who chooses to use transit in order to save money or to avoid driving the long distance to downtown Cleveland, in heavy traffic, on a daily basis. These groups share a high regard for Laketran’s services and, particularly, for the drivers and other front line personnel who provide Laketran’s services. They also share a common understanding of what needs to be improved in Laketran’s services, namely, the restoration of the service to its state prior to the financial emergency that began in 2007. Service operating later in the evenings, on Saturdays and holidays are important to all Laketran users. To a lesser extent, service to new areas that are currently not served by Laketran fixed route service, like the TriPoint Medical Center area in Concord Township and the industrial corridor along Tyler Boulevard, are also important new initiatives that resonate with members of the public and with decision-makers and opinion leaders in Lake County. A lack of north-south service is also apparent among the service analysis and customer surveys with most existing network providing service along the east-west corridors of State Highway 2, US Highway 20, and Interstate 90. The surveys and discussions indicated a general agreement that as much or more service, not less, would be needed in the future; however, there is some question over whether the community will be willing to pay for that additional service through increased tax revenues. The outcome of the surveys, however, provides Laketran and the study team with some clues as to the types of services that the public is most likely to support, as the team develops a plan for Laketran’s services over the next ten years.
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SWOT Analysis In May 2013, a SWOT analysis was conducted with the Laketran management team. Below are the various strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats that were identified for the near and long term.
Strengths
Overview
1. Laketran has earned and continues to enjoy a very good reputation in the community
2. Laketran has earned and continues to enjoy a very good reputation nationally Recognized by the American Public Transit Association (APTA) as the most “Outstanding Public Transit System” in 2000 and again in 2005
Laketran’s Finances 3. Laketran has been a good steward of federal, state and local taxpayer funds For the past 17 years, Laketran has received “unqualified opinions”, the best opinions issued by the State of Ohio auditors
For the past 15 years, Laketran has received “perfect” triennial audits from the Federal Transit Administration
4. Laketran never increased the local sales tax levy of ¼ of one percent in 25 years (1988 – 2013)
5. Laketran has been innovative and creative in reducing operating expenses and developing new revenue streams
Laketran’s Services
6. Laketran consistently receives very high customer satisfaction ratings in the delivery of Dial-a-Ride, Local In-County Fixed Route, and Cleveland Commuter Express Service
7. Dial-a-Ride Service Unlike the vast majority of other transit systems, Laketran provides the residents of Lake County with benefits “above and beyond” the minimum requirements of the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA)
i. Service is not geographically restricted to ¾ of a mile on either side of a Fixed Route – service is provided anywhere in Lake County and certain destinations in Cleveland
ii. Fares are provided at a discounted rate of $2.50/trip for seniors and people with disabilities
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Under the ADA, Laketran could charge $3.50/trip (twice the Local In-County Fixed Route fare of $1.75) similar to the vast majority of other transit systems
iii. Service is provided door-through-door; others provide service curb-to- curb
Service is provided to seniors 60 years old; under federal regulations - the eligibility age is 65
Service is offered to the general public at a fare of $10/trip; vast majority of transit systems restrict Dial-a-Ride service to seniors and persons with disabilities only i. Comparable trips by taxi are at least 2 and ½ times more expensive
8. Local In-County Fixed Route Service is provided along most of the heaviest travelled corridors inside Lake County
Seniors and persons with disabilities can ride all day long for less than ½ fare; most other transit systems allow reduced fares during off-peak hours only
Service at a reduced fare is provided to seniors 60 years old; under federal regulations - the eligibility age is 65
9. Cleveland Commuter Express Laketran provides premium express service to Cleveland from 7 convenient Park-n-Ride locations around Lake County
Laketran’s Park-n-Ride Lots are well maintained
10. Fares have remained stable since 2009 Since the passage of Laketran’s original sales tax levy in 1988, fares have been increased only three times- 2006, 2008 and 2009
Passenger Amenities
11. Laketran operates a modern bus fleet and maintains an annual vehicle replacement program to replace obsolete vehicles
12. All passenger vehicles are wheelchair accessible
13. All Local In-County Fixed Route Buses are equipped with Bike Racks Bike racks are now also being installed on the next 24 Dial-a-Ride buses to be purchased so in the future they could be used in Local In-County Fixed Route service as well
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14. All Fixed Route and Commuter Express buses are equipped with security cameras Security cameras are now being installed on all Dial-a-Ride buses as obsolete vehicles are replaced
15. Four Park-n-Ride lots are equipped with security cameras Security cameras will be installed in two more lots during the Spring/Summer of 2013
16. There is convenient bus stop signage including point-of-use reference Ride Guides at all major bus stops
17. All passenger bus stop shelters and benches are well maintained Laketran is working with several communities to increase the number of shelters and benches at existing bus stops (See Table 5.7 at the end of this chapter for a list of current and future benches and shelters.)
18. Laketran customers enjoy attractive and easy to use bus schedules/timetables
19. Laketran updates the system-wide bus map as necessary
20. Laketran is in the process of redesigning its website to make it even more useful to its customers
21. On-line pre-paid bus fare purchasing has been made available to customers
22. Laketran produces a monthly e-mail newsletter and has a Laketran Facebook page and Twitter feed as well
23. Laketran routinely issues Rider Alerts for route changes due to weather, traffic and other conditions affecting on-time performance
Investments in Technology to Hold Down the Growth in Operating Expenses, to Allow Laketran to Operate More Efficiently and Cost-Effectively and to Facilitate the Use of Laketran’s Services by Existing and New Customers
24. Laketran has invested in Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) on all Dial-a-Ride Vehicles to enhance reliability With a federal grant, AVL is being expanded to Local In-County and Cleveland Express Vehicles in 2013
25. All Dial-a-Ride buses have been equipped with Mobile Data Terminals and GPS navigation
26. Laketran obtained federal funds that helped finance a new countywide radio communication system to enhance Laketran and other first responders’ capabilities to operate more effectively in dealing with natural and man-made disasters Laketran obtained federal funds to install radios on-board all vehicles
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27. Laketran obtained federal funds to upgrade its fare collection system with electronic registering fareboxes with Smartcard capability
28. Laketran continues to invest in energy efficient technology to manage utility expenses Laketran’s current facility performance qualifies for “Energy Star” certification with a score of 93, meaning Laketran consumes energy at a rate that is more efficient than 93 percent of the buildings in the office/warehouse category
29. Laketran obtained federal funds and acquired state-of-the-art scheduling and dispatching software
30. Laketran’s website redesign includes a mobile site compatible with smartphone technology
31. Laketran has obtained federal funds to add a trip planner application to the website so customers can do personal trip planning 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, 365 days per year on-line
32. Laketran has obtained federal funds to add a call back feature to its software to remind Dial-a-Ride customers of their reservations in order to help reduce operating costs associated with no-shows
33. Laketran has obtained federal funds so, in the future, customers should be able to book their own Dial-a-Ride reservations on-line 7 days a week, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year
Board of Trustees 34. The County Commissioners have appointed very well qualified citizens to the Laketran Board of Trustees with: a diversity of experience and connections to the senior, disability and minority communities; a good mix of age groups; experience in the public, private and not-for-profit sectors; and strong financial and legal expertise
Workforce 35. Laketran has experienced leadership General Manager – 40 years of experience in the transit industry
Deputy General Manager – 23 years of experience at Laketran
36. Laketran has strong managerial expertise in all critical functional areas: Operations/Scheduling/Dispatching, Maintenance; Customer Service; Safety; Budgeting/Finance, Procurement/Grants, Marketing/Community Relations; Human Resources, Labor Relations and Training
37. Laketran maintains a good working relationship with competent union leadership
38. Laketran has an expert maintenance department
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39. Laketran Customer Service Representatives that handle Dial-a-Ride reservations consistently earn high customer satisfaction ratings
40. Laketran has very professional bus operators who consistently earn very high customer satisfaction ratings
Local Levies
41. In March 2012, the Senior Services Replacement Property Tax passed with 59.1 percent voting “yes”
42. In May 2010, the Lake County Board of Developmental Disabilities Replacement Property Tax passed with 64.3 percent voting “yes”
43. In November 2011, Lakeland Community College’s Property Tax Renewal passed with 58.2 percent voting “yes”
Weaknesses
Laketran’s Finances
1. The two major problems confronting Laketran are: Volatility and stagnation in traditional levels of federal, state and local public transit funding
i. Since 2007 Laketran has suffered a reduction of $536,742 of combined federal/state funding and local sales tax revenues
Uncertainty in future funding levels for both the short and long term
2. The volatility and stagnation in traditional government funding does not make it possible for Laketran to: Maintain existing levels of Dial-a-Ride, Local Fixed Route and Cleveland Commuter Express services during the next ten years; let alone
Restore later weeknight, Saturday and federally observed holiday service eliminated in 2009; or
Respond to the increasing demand for more public transit services
Local Levies
3. Voter approval of a renewal of the existing ¼ of one percent sales tax levy in November 2013 will require Laketran to deplete its cash balance to maintain existing levels of service and go back on the ballot in the next 3–4 years for an additional ¼ of one percent increase in the sales tax levy There are legitimate concerns as to whether or not sufficient funds can be raised in the next 3–4 years to educate and communicate with the public about the need for an increase in such a short period of time
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4. There are legitimate concerns whether or not the public will approve a ¼ of one percent increase in Laketran’s existing sales tax Levy in November 2013 In November 2010, Lakeland Community College Property Tax Replacement passed with 52 percent voting “yes”
In November 2012, Lake Metropark’s Property Tax Replacement passed with 50.4 percent voting “yes”
5. Failure of either a renewal or increase in the existing sales tax levy would be catastrophic since the local sales tax levy provides 60 percent of the funding needed to operate Laketran
6. Many voters mistakenly assume Laketran received a portion of the ½ of one percent increase in the county sales tax that took effect in spring 2012.
Laketran’s Services
1. Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride, Local Fixed Route and Commuter Express customers still do not have later weeknight, Saturday and holiday services that were eliminated in 2009 that serve traditional transit dependent populations (seniors and people with disabilities, students, workers, shoppers, veterans, clients of health and human service agencies, etc.)
2. While Laketran’s In-County Fixed Route services provide opportunities to transfer to other east – west routes, there are few opportunities to use public transit along north – south corridors in Lake County
3. Without reliable and increasing sources of funding, Laketran cannot respond to the growing demands for more public transit services generated by an aging population, private investment in manufacturing jobs along Tyler Boulevard. and healthcare facilities along Auburn Road and Route 615 in Mentor as well as programs provided by health and human service agencies and local colleges to improve the quality of life in Lake County
4. Passage of state or federal legislation to eliminate the e-commerce (internet) sales tax exemption is not a solution to public transit’s and Laketran’s financial structural weaknesses If any of these legislative initiatives were successful, Laketran would receive approximately $600,000 a year more in local sales tax revenues This new stream would only push back Laketran’s need to go back on the ballot by one year
Opportunities
Laketran’s Finances
1. Voter approval of a ¼ of one percent increase in sales tax ($0.25 out of $100) will provide sufficient revenues for at least the next 10 years so that Laketran can:
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a. Maintain existing levels of Dial-a-Ride, Local Fixed Route and Cleveland Commuter Express services
b. Restore later weeknight, Saturday and holiday services eliminated in 2009 so seniors, persons with disabilities, students, clients of health and human services organizations, employees and the general public can have access to jobs, healthcare, higher education, and shopping for essential goods and services
c. Provide adequate services to meet the growing transit needs of an aging population In 2000, 1 out of 5 people in Lake County were over 60 years of age
By 2030, the number of people over 60 years of age will grow to 1 out of 3
d. Provide access from both the east and west ends of Lake County to existing and future job opportunities along Lake County’s major manufacturing corridor - Tyler Boulevard.
e. Provide the general public with access to state-of-the-art healthcare facilities at TriPoint Medical Center and University Hospital in Concord Township and in the future, to the Cleveland Clinic in Mentor along Route 615
e. Provide the general public with north – south public transit service along Route 615 connecting Painesville, Mentor Headlands, Mentor-on-the-Lake, with the Mentor Civic Center, the Great Lakes Mall and Lakeland Community College this improvement will also provide customers who use this new service with the ability to transfer to all other Laketran In-County Fixed Routes
g. Provide Lake County residents mid-day commuter express service to get to and from downtown Cleveland
h. Provide Sunday Dial-a-Ride for seniors and persons with disabilities to attend religious services, shop and visit friends and relatives
2. Voter approval of a ¼ of one percent increase in sales tax will provide Laketran with a funding source:
a. sufficient to mitigate minor reductions in federal and state aid that would otherwise trigger future service cuts
b. sufficient to mitigate any minor reductions in new revenue streams such as Medicaid funding that would also trigger future service cuts
3. A permanent renewal levy may have a higher possibility to get voter approval, however it will not allow Laketran to continue service
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4. Laketran has equipped its new replacement Dial-a-Ride buses with new passenger amenities (destination signs, stop request signals, bike racks, etc.) so they could be used in new Local In-County Fixed Route or restored late night services instead of traditional larger buses, should adequate funding be made available
Laketran Services
5. Re-route Route 5 to service Giant Eagle shopping area in Painesville Township
6. Re-route Route 2 to better serve Shops of Willoughby Hills and connect with RTA
7. Improve passenger amenities throughout the county (benches, shelters, Ride Guides)
Community Needs
8. Escalating gas prices may make public transportation a more attractive option
9. Collaboration with community organizations and business to re-locate along existing Local Routes
10. Travel Train more seniors to use Local Fixed Routes
Threats
1. Given the on-going debate in Washington over deficit reduction, it is uncertain how much public transit will be funded when the current legislation, MAP-21 expires in September 2014
2. Given the on-going debate in Washington regarding the reform of Medicare/Medicaid, it is uncertain what the impact will be on Laketran’s new Medicaid revenue streams.
3. If the Ohio General Assembly adopts Governor Kasich’s proposed budget recommendation for funding public transit there will be no increase in State aid for public transit through June 2015.
4. Year-to-date local sales tax revenues (February’s payment made to Laketran in April) are down 3.2 percent for the comparable period of time in 2007
5. Since Lake County Jobs and Family Services announced it will be on the ballot this November for an increase in their property tax levy, it is uncertain what impact this might have on Laketran’s ballot issue on election day
6. Rising fuel costs and other increasing expenses outside of Laketran’s direct control
7. The recent sales tax increase of 1/2 of1 percent by the county may hurt the chances of Laketran winning the support for another increase in sales tax.
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Table 5.7: List of Current and Future Laketran Benches and Shelters
Current Passenger Amenities Location Amenity Type Willoughby 5091 SOM Center Road Kaiser Permanente Shelter 7700 Clock tower Drive Lakeland Community College Shelter 34500 Ridge Road Lithuanian Center Bench 38448 Lakeshore Blvd. Former Yale Appliances Bench 38459 Lakeshore Blvd. Eastside Medical Clinic Bench 30 Public Square Wes Point Park Bench Erie Street & Mentor Avenue BP Oil gas station Bench 4000 Erie Street Willoughby Courthouse Shelter 38115 Euclid Avenue Charter One Bank Bench Eastlake 36706 Lakeshore Blvd. Eastlake Public Library Shelter 36720 Lakeshore Blvd. First United Church Bench Eastlake Stadium Eastlake Transit Center Bench Vine Street K-mart Bench Vine Street & E. 340 Street Best Cuts Bench Vine Street & E. 348 Street Manor Park (east) Bench Vine Street & E. 348 Street Dollar Bank Bench Fairport Harbor Third Street & High Street FH City Hall Shelter East Street Bench Painesville 33 Mill Street Heath District Shelter 507 Mentor Avenue Morley Music Hall (LEC) Shelter 105 Main Street Lake County Admin. Bldg. Shelter 933 Mentor Avenue Painesville YMCA Shelter Painesville Township 16 Normandy Street Painesville Shopping Center Shelter 555 Lakeshore Blvd. Laketran Shelter Willowick Lakeshore Blvd. Shoregate Shopping Center (westend) 2 Shelter E. 305 Street Willowick Library Shelter E. 305 Street Shoregate Shopping Center (eastend) Shelter Vine Street St. Mary Magdalene Church Bench Wickliffe 900 Worden Road Wickliffe Community Center Shelter 29551 Lakeland Boulevard Laketran Park-n-Ride Shelter Euclid Avenue Former Farmers Market Shelter 30013 Euclid Avenue Four Seasons Shelter 29701 Euclid Avenue Marino’s Bench 28935 Euclid Avenue Finest Lines Tattoos Bench 29131 Euclid Avenue Papa Joe’s Bench 29134 Euclid Avenue Convenience Store Bench 28916 Euclid Avenue Wickliffe Food Mart Bench Euclid Ave. and Rockefeller Family Dollar Bench Ridge Road & Lincoln Road East of Greenridge Golf Course Bench Madison 200 Water Tower Drive Laketran Park-n-Ride Shelter
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Mentor 8215 Mentor Avenue Mentor Public Library Bench 9485 Mentor Avenue Mentor Medical Campus Shelter 9500 Mentor Avenue Lake Ambulatory Shelter Market Street Laketran Park-n-Ride Shelter 7850 Mentor Avenue Great Lakes Mall 2 Benches 8383 Mentor Avenue Mentor Ave. & Center St. Bench 8500 Mentor Avenue Drug Mart Bench 8505 Mentor Avenue Kia of Mentor Bench 8571 Mentor Avenue Arrowhead Music Bench 8600 Mentor Avenue United Methodist Church Bench 8748 Mentor Avenue Former Little Mountain Market Bench 8751 Mentor Avenue Christian Church Bench
Future Passenger Amenities In Progress Location Amenity Type Mentor
8215 Mentor Ave Mentor Public Library Shelter 8224 Mentor Ave Mentor Ave Associates, LLC Shelter 8979 Mentor Ave Memorial Middle School Shelter 9000 Mentor Ave University Hospitals Shelter 9179 Mentor Ave Strip Mall Across from K-Mart Shelter 9303 Mentor Ave Wal-Mart Shelter 9260 Mentor Ave Former Staples Shelter 9581 Mentor Ave Kohl’s Shelter 9581 Mentor Ave Lowes Shelter 9669 Mentor Ave Target Shelter Painesville Township 1841 Mentor Ave East Coast Custard Shelter 1301 Mentor Ave Lake County Fair Grounds Shelter 1221 Mentor Ave Entrance to Giant Eagle Shopping Center Shelter 1506 Mentor Ave CVS Shelter 1700 Mentor Ave Nye Road & Mentor Ave Shelter 1756 Mentor Ave Doan Road & Mentor Ave Shelter
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Chapter 6: Access to Opportunity
Within the past 10 years, despite the consequences of the most Trends create severe economic recession since the Great Depression, American opportunities that result in society has continued to evolve. The technological explosion – most specifically the expansion and impact of the internet and investments by the public cell phone communications – as well as the fundamental shift in and private sectors to plan demographics of an aging population for Lake County have for the future and to presented both challenges and opportunities which forward- improve the quality of life thinking public agencies, non-profits, private businesses and in Lake County; but reveal public-private partnerships have recognized they not only could a public transit challenge not ignore but must identify, embrace and address if they are to to provide access to these survive and continue to effectively serve their clients in a opportunities. fundamentally changing environment. Lake County has also had to evolve and embrace the changes that are sweeping the country. Examined in this section is an overview, sector by sector, of the emerging trends and resulting opportunities in the Lake County community. In response to societal change, local organizations have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into physical structures and services that continue to create opportunities to improve the quality of life for Lake County residents. Specifically, these challenges have yielded opportunities from job creation in the growing fields of healthcare, technology and higher education, in the revitalized manufacturing sector, and in strengthened programs and resources to improve the welfare of Lake County residents through investments in health and human services, shopping destinations and career education.
Laketran’s Role Throughout its history, Laketran has partnered with organizations and businesses to play an important role in response to these trends and to provide access to these opportunities within the parameters of Laketran’s diminishing funding sources. Continuing into the next decade, it is clear that Laketran’s numerous stakeholders are looking to Laketran to provide access to the opportunities they are – and will be – creating. As a significant community asset, Laketran has been approached by stakeholders to provide transportation for the residents of Lake County to these new opportunities, including transportation to manufacturing jobs, health care and education. Many more changes are likely to occur in the various sectors of the community, with each one presenting a new opportunity for those who live and work in Lake County. Laketran’s challenge is to respond to the demand for more service considering its own current fundamental funding challenges. Through research, surveys, data analysis and community assessment six key trends have emerged: Population, Healthcare, Employment, Education, Health and Human Services, and Retail and Service Industries. The goal of this section is to explore each trend, the investment being made in Lake County to respond to that trend, and the public transit challenge to provide access to these opportunities.
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Population Trends The Ohio Department of Development’s Office of Strategic Research (ODOD) projects Lake County’s population will decline slightly over the next 10 to 20 years, from a high of 233,890 in 2010 to 228,600 in 2020 and 228,380 in 2030. While these statistics show that Lake County’s population is projected to slightly decline, there are three significant population trends that will fuel future demand for increased Laketran services and include the following: The emergence of the millennial generation, who desire a lifestyle less dependent on the automobile; A dramatic increase in the number of older adults, who will become more dependent on public transportation as they age; and A growing independent disabled population whose desire for societal inclusion will be increasingly realized thanks in part to technological and medical advances which will enable people with disabilities to live fuller, more independent productive lives than ever before.
While each of these population trends will present fundamental challenges for Laketran, the latter two – seniors and people with disabilities – will most significantly impact Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service.
Millennial’s Lifestyle Choice – a Desire to Be Less Dependent on the Automobile As the average number of miles driven by Americans heads into its eighth year of decline, a report from the U.S. PIRG Education Funds, “A New Direction: Our Changing Relationship with Driving and Implications for America’s Future,” finds the downturn in driving is likely to continue. Baby boomers are moving out of the phase in their life when they do most of the commuting, while driving-averse millennial’s move into that phase. The latter population is also more likely to seek out walkable neighborhoods in transit friendly areas. These demographic changes and other factors such as rising gas prices and telecommuting will likely keep the propensity for driving down for the next few decades. According to this report, the millennial generation is leading the change in transportation trends. Sixteen to 34-year olds drove 23 percent fewer miles on average in 2009 than in 2001 – the greatest decline in driving of any age group. Similar percentages are evident in the results of Laketran’s on-board survey that indicates local fixed route passengers tend to be younger (53 percent were between 18 and 34 years), indicative of the movement by millennials to use transportation modes that are different from their parents at the same age. While driving among millennials is lower than other generations, driving The population in among all Americans is on the decline. The study states that miles Lake County, while driven per capita peaked in 2004, and the total number of miles driven slightly diminishing, by Americans peaked in 2007. Additionally, the report finds that under will demand more any reasonable scenario, the number of miles driven annually will be and different public fewer in the future than if the Baby Boom trends were to continue. During the second half of the 20th Century, low gas prices, rapid transportation suburbanization and an ever-increasing number of women commuters services. entering the workforce fueled the driving boom. The factors that defined that period are now not so prevalent. Under some conservative
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scenarios outlined by the report, driving won’t ever regain its 2007 peak during the range of the study, which extends to 2040. This data challenges public transportation professionals and municipal planners to change how they currently judge the types of public transportation needed to serve the very different transportation needs of future populations. The report goes on to state that the change in driving trends will have huge implications for many aspects of the American lifestyle: Coupled with improvements in fuel efficiency, reduced driving means Americans will use about half as much gasoline and other fuels in 2040 than they use today, making the real value of gas taxes fall as much as 74 percent. Gas taxes provide the chief source of federal transportation funds and is a major funding source for many states; Traffic congestion will be less of a problem; Toll roads will be less financially viable; Many highway expansion projects will start to look like less prudent expenditures; and Forms of travel that are expanding in use, like public transit, will be a better investment. Phineas Baxandall, senior analyst for tax and budget policy, at the U.S. PIRG Education Fund, solidifies these points by saying “Given the The millennial magnitude of these trends and implications for the future, we need to generation is press the reset button on our transportation policy. Public officials changing the can’t just stay on the only course they’ve known. They need to learn travelling from current trends to rethink whether it’s worth building all those landscape, and extra highway miles that were planned based on an obsolete research shows they understanding of future driving trends.” are automobile- As a whole, Lake County has met the needs of its citizens and averse and seeking attempts to stay ahead of the curve to reduce the drain of residential alternative forms of flight experienced by other neighboring counties. This research transportation. compels municipal planners and public transportation decision makers to also focus on the needs and wants of the up-and-coming generations. Senior Citizens – Baby Boomers Over-the-Norm Needs Will Continue to Significantly Impact Society Like the rest of American society, Lake County is about to experience an unprecedented increase of the older adult demographic emerging from the post-World War II Baby Boom generation. The swelling of the senior citizen population represents the fastest growing age group in the United States today. Throughout the life span of the Baby Boom generation, extra resources will be required to meet their needs. For example, additional resources were needed to accommodate for the drastic increase in their births, schooling, housing, employment and now retirement. Now, and throughout the next several decades, this generation will require healthcare, senior housing and transportation. As with each previous decade of the Baby Boomers lifespan, researchers are expected to fundamentally redesign how the various needs of the generation will be met and financed. Data clearly points to this long-term demographic shift, common throughout Ohio but especially acute in Lake County which is experiencing the fastest aging population in the state. Between the 1980 and 2010 decennial censuses, the median age of Lake County residents has increased from 29.9 to 42.3 years. In 2010, 22 percent of Lake County’s population was 60 years of age and older. According to projections done by Miami University’s Scripps Gerontology Center, Lake County’s
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population over 60 years of age will grow to 29.2 percent by 2020 and to nearly 34 percent of the population by 2030. In a span of just 20 years, Lake County’s senior population ages 60 years and older will increase from 20 percent to 34 percent of the county’s population. The results of the on- board customer survey conducted as part of this study support this trend. Data indicates Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride passengers who are age 65 and older already comprise 56 percent of its ridership. The rapid increase in the senior population presents a number of mobility challenges, primarily due to declining health as one ages and the individual’s subsequent inability to operate an automobile safely in a heavily auto-oriented environment like Lake County. An older person’s ability to competently drive a car can be threatened as physical and cognitive disabilities evolve such as decreased visual acuity and night vision. Older drivers often face many difficulties operating a vehicle increasing their risk of being involved in potentially fatal or disabling motor-vehicle accidents. All of these characteristics of senior citizens, as well as compromised perception-reaction time, emphasize the importance of mode diversification away from the automobile. In addition to diminished capacity to safely operate a vehicle, more than 20 percent of seniors do not drive at all. In a 2011 report by Transportation for America, “Aging in Place: Stuck without Options” states that, in the absence of access to affordable travel options, seniors face isolation, a reduced quality of life and possible economic hardship. A 2004 study by the Surface Transportation Policy Project found that seniors age 65 and older who no longer drive make 15 percent fewer trips to the doctor, 59 percent fewer trips to shop or eat out, and 65 percent fewer trips to visit friends and family, than drivers of the same age. A 2007 study in Transportation Research Record recommended the type of “door-through-door” paratransit service that Laketran currently provides, as being vital to maintaining independence for disabled and elderly people as they age, and notes that communities will face increased costs related to providing these necessary services. These studies support the need for additional public transit to provide an improved quality of life for disabled people and for all people during their senior years. This observation will be no less true as the Baby Boom generation emerges as the nations’ next generation of increasingly transit dependent seniors.
Aging in Place I: The Cost Effective Collaboration between Public Transit and the Communities They Serve According to AARP, 88 percent of seniors want to stay in their own homes as long as they can. Besides the fact that most people would be happier living in their own home, it is often substantially less expensive than assisted living or a nursing home. Recent studies show large increases in the cost of assisted living and nursing homes, while home care costs (which are lower to begin with) are remaining relatively unchanged. To support these points, for the past ten years Genworth Financial has surveyed the cost of long term care across the U.S. to help Americans appropriately plan for the potential cost of this type of care in their preferred location and setting. Genworth released a report in 2011 confirming the cost of in-home services has remained relatively flat for the past six years but the costs for nursing homes and assisted living facilities have increased considerably over the same period. For example, in 2005 the national median annual rate for a private nursing home room was $60,225 compared with the 2011 median annual rate of $77,745, meaning Americans can expect to pay approximately $17,520 more per year today for a nursing home than they had to pay in 2005.
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Genworth also provides a State Median Annual Care Cost report where 2013 data for Ohio estimates the average annual cost of a semi-private nursing home room is $74,460 and a private room was $82,125. Home care services such as Homemaker Services or Home Health Aides can have an annual cost of nearly half that of a nursing home, costing just over $40,000 annually. Genworth’s data suggests that older adults desire to remain in the community and in their own homes for as In a span of just 20 years, Lake long as possible is a cost effective alternative County’s senior population will communities are wise to consider. The choice is clear in increase from 46,778 (20 that while nursing home costs are rising sharply, in- percent of the total population) home care costs are about 50 percent less expensive. to 77,649 (34 percent of the The next section will explore how Lake County supports total). Counties that are in-home living for seniors. Access to programs and positioned to serve these aging services that support a person’s desire and ability to live populations will attract new at home for as long as possible is one of Laketran’s residents and growth most important challenges and responsibilities in the Lake County community. opportunities.
Aging in Place II: Community Investment in Lake County’s Seniors Improves Quality of Life of Lake County Seniors In Lake County, significant investments in programs that allow seniors to remain in their homes have been established at senior centers and through the Lake County Council on Aging (LCCOA), which recently became certified as an Aging and Disabilities Resource Center to meet the diverse needs among aging seniors and people with disabilities. Lake County has 10 active senior citizen centers, which help seniors enjoy an active quality lifestyle while they remain in their own homes. They provide a broad spectrum of services, including health, mental health, social, nutrition, and educational services and recreational activities for older adults. In addition to the program investments made at the various senior citizen centers, the LCCOA also invests substantial federal, state and local funding to aid seniors as they remain in their homes. Most notably are the following LCCOA’s In-Home services: case management, Meal-on-Wheels, care giving, homemaking, health equipment rentals, Friendly Visitors, home safety modifications, and Vial of Life. LCCOA data for 2011 alone provides significant insight into the massive outreach and investment already taking place in Lake County to help seniors live independently. For example, over 139,170 home-delivered meals delivered to 900 homebound seniors through their Meals-on-Wheels program. Case management services received over 908 new clients and made 1,574 in-home visits to new clients. In addition to LCCOA’s Meals-on-Wheels program, two local area churches provide meals to homebound seniors to supplement unmet needs for COA’s program. Coupled with all of this is Laketran’s corollary investment in transporting seniors from home to senior centers; medical and dental appointments; shopping to purchase groceries, clothing, prescriptions, eyeglasses and hearing aids; to banks and to access all of the other health and human service agencies investing in programs to improve the quality of life for seniors residing in the community.
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The demand for in-home services has been escalating along with the aging population. The ability of individuals to remain in their home or neighborhood as they age is dependent on both their personal environment and the external environment that surrounds them. The homeowner may have a house that adapts easily to any disability age may bring, but lack of access to public transportation and/or the loss of driving privileges marks the end of independence. Clearly, Lake County is already committed to investing in what has become a growing national trend to keep older Americans as independent as possible for as long as possible. With the demographic shift to a more aged county, the transportation demand for all of these services likely will rise significantly. People with Disabilities: Service Above and Beyond the ADA Another group that is traditionally dependent on public transit services is people with disabilities, who have much in common with an aging population when it comes to their mobility needs. In 2010, the U.S. Census Bureau released a report, “Americans with Disabilities: 2010” which presents estimates of disability status and type. According to the report, 56.7 million people – 19 percent of the total U.S. population, reported a disability, with more than half of the respondents reporting their disability as severe. These figures represent significant, if not daunting, challenges on the horizon for American society as everyone from community planners to healthcare providers to architects and transit systems must consider how to respond to this fast growing demographic. For people with disabilities, public transportation is the “key to all” in terms of the ability to realize and participate in various opportunities in their own communities. Where available, public transit has opened doors and has impacted this population significantly throughout their life span. For the disabled community, access to safe, reliable and affordable public transit has meant the difference between living their lives confined in nursing homes to living productively in their communities. Public transportation has represented the difference between being able to work or being relegated to dependence on social welfare programs. It has provided the freedom, choice, mobility and independence to escape the isolation imposed by society which, until the American’s with Disabilities Act was enacted little more than a generation ago, was more the norm than the exception. Now, more and more people with disabilities can access all the opportunities the able-bodied population has long taken for granted to live a high-quality, productive, self-sufficient lifestyle. That is, if safe, reliable and affordable public transportation is available. The American’s with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA) is rooted in the fight for people with disabilities’ right to access urbanized areas local fixed route buses. While the history of the disability community’s independent living movement and their fight to use public transit is both long and complicated and not the focus of this study, it is nevertheless important to recognize that Americans with disabilities did not always have access to public transit. As a result, this meant people with disabilities found themselves without educational opportunities, without jobs, often without appropriate healthcare, and relegated to the restrictions of life in a nursing home as opposed to a more viable, active lifestyle in their own house or apartment in the community. Fortunately the Americans with Disabilities Act did much to change that by finally codifying the disabled community’s right to access this public service. The public transportation section of the law alone opened doors for the disabled community as the law required transit agencies to accommodate disabled people, to allow them to utilize buses to travel as freely as their able-bodied counterparts and offer them access to opportunities offered in their communities. Coupled with the removal of architectural barriers, also mandated by the ADA, the county has gradually become a more disabled-friendly place to live, work, and play.
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Unfortunately, easy access to transit is not a widespread trend in the country. According to the “Survey of Americans with Disabilities" (2010), published by the Kessler Foundation and National Organization on Disability, people with disabilities are more likely than people without disabilities to report that they have inadequate transportation (34 percent versus 16 percent, respectively) – a gap of 18 percentage points. Transportation appears to be a greater problem in 2010 for both people with and without disabilities, increasing from 30 percent in 2004 to 34 percent in 2010 for people with disabilities and from 13 percent in 2004 to 16 percent in 2010 for people without.” Until the service reductions in 2009, Laketran’s rarely received requests for additional service. Those requests that it did receive were primarily for Sunday service, so that people with disabilities could attend church along with their families. However with the service cuts, the loss of service on Saturdays, and later hours on weeknights was especially devastating for this population gathered from customer complaints, feedback from various human and health services agencies, and the Dial-a-Ride survey conducted for this project. For Laketran in 1988, two years into its first successful transportation levy, the introduction of the ADA involved little adjustment to the Laketran fleet and network because the agency already had a long history of providing accessible bus service to a transit dependent disabled and senior population through Lake County’s health and human service network. But nationwide, this is not the trend. Many transit systems, particularly in small urban and rural areas, are struggling to gain the ability and expertise to build their systems into one which would resemble Laketran. They also realize the aging Baby Boom generation, coupled with veterans returning with disabilities from combat tours of duty, along with the younger population of people with disabilities who are living longer and desire access to the opportunities in their own communities is rapidly expanding. The Community’s Recent Responses to the Needs of People with Disabilities This 10 year Plan recognizes that there are many valuable investments being made to improve the quality of life for people with disabilities by private, public and non-profit agencies. The following are just two illustrations of expanding programs and infrastructure that will add to Laketran’s challenge to respond to the opportunities associated with this trend. The first example involved the Lake County Board of Developmental Disabilities (LCBDD). LCBDD is a heavy investor in programs and services for people with disabilities. While many counties have scaled back programs, including elimination of county board school programs, Lake County continues to support a full range of local programs and services from infancy, pre-school, school-age, vocational training, community employment, to senior services. Uniquely, Lake County supports local residential options encompassing For people with in-home family supports, short term respite (both in-home and out-of- disabilities, public home), multiple small-scale community residences (group homes, transportation has apartment settings), and 24-hour residential facilities. represented the LCBDD’s Adult Services employment program served over 662 difference between individuals in 2011. The Willoughby Workshop portion of this program being able to work or increased sales by 5.5 percent while the Vocational Guidance Center being relegated to increased the average number of hours worked by 43 percent in 2011. dependence on The Community Employment Services (CES) program secured two new job sites while maintaining all jobs for individuals through the economic social welfare downturn. CES implemented a successful transportation contract with programs.
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Laketran as the success of these expanding programs is reliant on access to public transportation, however uncertainty in Medicaid transportation funding does not make this a stable revenue stream to fund growing transportation demands. The second example is concerned with depression, bipolar disorder, and other mental illnesses as they can be as disabling as any physical or cognitive disability. Mental health disorders are one of the leading causes of disability in the United States. According to a National Comorbidity Survey published by the Archives of General Psychiatry, an estimated 26.2 percent of Americans aged 18 and older suffer from a diagnosable mental illness disorder in a given year. When applied to the 2012 U.S. Census residential population estimate for ages 18 and older, this figure translates to approximately 46,423 Lake County adults. Extended Housing is one of seventeen agencies that receive funding from Lake County ADAHMS Board which plans and funds Alcohol, Drug Addiction and Mental Health programs for the county. The mission of Extended Housing (main office in Painesville) is to support individuals with severe and persistent mental illness to live as independently as possible by creating, developing and sustaining safe decent affordable housing options. In June 2013, Extended Housing will open McKinley Grove, a 17-unit permanent supportive housing apartment community to provide support for individuals to live independent, healthy lifestyles. This $3 million project was financed by over 14 major public and private grants. Community Expectation of Public Transit and Laketran’s Challenge Many people with disabilities are successfully employed and fully integrated into society, but as a group, the majority of people with disabilities face disproportionate poverty and unemployment. In the year 2011, an estimated 12.1 percent of non-institutionalized people between the ages of 21 and 64 reported a disability. Of that group, only 20 percent were full time employees and over 13 percent were actively looking for work. There are many societal factors that prevent the employment of people with disabilities with one of the most significant being a lack of transportation. According to the National Council on Disability (NCD) report, “Access to Inclusion and full Transportation by People with Disabilities: Illustrations of Implementation participation in from the United States,” approximately 30 percent of Americans with our communities disabilities deal with inadequate transportation, compared to only 10 percent of those without disabilities. Inadequate public transit to places of and societies is work, education, healthcare, recreation, and countless other venues the goal for constitutes a significant barrier to the enjoyment of fundamental human people with rights by people with disabilities – such as access to work – and disabilities. consequently their full participation and inclusion in our communities and societies. People with disabilities, as with their senior counterparts, need mobility to gain access to goods, services and social contacts that support their ability to live independently in their own homes in the community. As people age, their level of mobility can become restricted, leading to a decrease in overall quality of life. Communities with senior citizen and disabled populations must be cognizant of the barriers to mobility that exist with this population and invest in policy and infrastructure that can be used to overcome them. Having appropriate public transit service can mean the difference between a person with a disability or senior citizen accessing opportunities in their communities – from basic goods and services and employment to not only improve their own quality of life but also
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to contribute productively to our communities – or finding themselves caught in the trap of institutionalization, shut off from the daily discourse of life. The majority of older people and many of those with disabilities want to travel at different times than most commuters; they need expanded routes and service hours, better schedule adherence, and appropriate assistance from drivers. With the reduction of Laketran’s services in 2009, seniors and people with disabilities are still without later weeknight, Saturday and holiday local bus route and Dial-a-Ride services. Without a stable, reliable and increasing source of funding, Laketran does not have the financial resources to restore services eliminated in 2009 or accommodate their growing public transit needs of millennials, seniors and people with disabilities. Given sufficient resources, Laketran can be a viable transportation Healthcare and option and provide senior and disabled residents with the ability to live manufacturing use independently, access the opportunities to medical and health services, maintain contact with the outside world, and create a feeling of government belonging to the community. programs to assist with growth Senior and disabled residents need mobility to maintain access to strategies that goods, services and social contacts that support their day-to-day lives. As people age, their level of mobility tends to become restrictive, leading create demand for to a decrease in their overall quality of life. It is one of Laketran’s goals skilled labor force. to offer them “opportunity” and a higher quality of life. Having appropriate transportation can mean the difference between whether or not a senior or disabled resident can access basic services, as well as improved quality of life activities and service.
Healthcare Trend The healthcare sector is aggressively responding to the shifting needs of the population. The population trend, coupled with where the healthcare sector is growing, demands more Laketran service. The growth of the older adult population in Lake County will have an unprecedented impact on the local healthcare system, especially in terms of demand for healthcare facilities, services and workers. Much of the data in the previous Population Trend section applies to this section on healthcare trends. Investments to Improve Healthcare in Lake County In 2009, Lake Health made a $102 million investment in TriPoint Medical Center, employing approximately 825 people, who comprise the hospital’s clinical and support staff. The facility is a four-story, 300,000 square-foot state-of-the-art hospital with 119 private patient rooms, a family birthing unit, a 22-room emergency care department, Thru Care Area, and a Chest Pain Center. Also located on the TriPoint Medical Center campus is a 100,000 square foot Physician Pavilion that hosts the Wellness Institute and Center for Integrative Medicine, Outpatient Rehabilitation Center, Community Health Center, the Lake Health Resource Center/Medical Library, a conference center and Lake Health offices. Adjacent to the TriPoint Medical Center is University Hospital’s Concord Health Center, a 60,000 square-foot outpatient facility that employs medical professionals and support staff that offers an urgent care center, primary care services for adults and children, the Concord Infusion Center,
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laboratories, radiology, and University Hospital’s Harrington Heart & Vascular Institute. Physician specialty services include cardiovascular medicine, dermatology, endocrinology, gastroenterology, nephrology, obstetrics and gynecology (OB/GYN), orthopedics, pediatrics, pulmonology, rheumatology and urology. Both medical facilities are conveniently located for automobiles off of I- There is a 90 and SR-44 in Concord Township. For future development, the compounding Cleveland Clinic recently acquired about 47 acres at the northwest effect of the aging quadrant of I-90 and Route 615, in the Newell Creek planned-unit population on development in Mentor. healthcare. Seniors One of the primary needs within the healthcare trend is serving the aging demand more population. Seniors account for 37 percent of healthcare costs yet make services and more up 13 percent of the current population, with that number projected to services demand grow to 19 percent by 2030, according to a 2012 by Deloitte Center for more employees. Health Solutions entitled “The Hidden Cost of U.S. Healthcare: Consumer Discretionary Healthcare Spending.” Another unmet lifesaving need within the healthcare trend is the strong demand for dialysis. The Ohio Renal Care Group, a joint venture of the Cleveland Clinic Foundation, MetroHealth System, and Fresenius Medical Care recently built a new dialysis center adjacent to the current Center for Dialysis Care (CDC) center on Tyler Boulevard to provide nearly a 24-hour service schedule. Community Expectation of Public Transit and Laketran’s Challenge There is currently no public transportation access to these three locations, other than demand response Dial-a-Ride, which requires a minimum two-day advance reservation and is more expensive for both the resident and Laketran when compared to local fixed route service. The demand for a fixed route for patients, as well as employees, to access these major employment sites is needed in Lake County. A fixed route also would assist area municipalities who have been experiencing an increased volume of 911 calls requesting transportation to these facilities, even when there is not a life-threatening emergency. Public transportation service to this up-and-coming Concord corridor and Tyler Boulevard would provide access for employees, patients with scheduled medical appointments, and also serve residents when unexpected health issues develop that need immediate attention. Additionally, Laketran currently provides 10,427 rides to the CDC annually. Since the 2009 service reductions eliminated weeknight and Saturday service, Laketran dependent dialysis patients are not able to access the CDC for later evening or Saturday appointments. With the growing need for dialysis services, many of whose patients will require Laketran services, the future dialysis demand may present challenges for scheduling appointments at the CDC’s during Laketran service hours to receive this lifesaving treatment. Given sufficient resources, Laketran could consider the viability and feasibility of offering local fixed route service to a number or all of these facilities and make them more accessible and more economical to get to for the residents of Lake County.
Employment Trend According to TeamNEO, Northeast Ohio is projected to add approximately 169,000 jobs over the next eight years. The organization expects the biggest group of new jobs to come from the healthcare
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industry. Already a leading sector in the region, Team NEO expects its importance to grow. In 1990, hospitals, nursing homes and other health institutions employed less than 10 percent of the region’s workforce. By 2020, TeamNEO expects that figure to be 16 percent. Those healthcare jobs will include everything from doctors to orderlies, but the bulk of healthcare jobs will require some forms of specialized training. Other high-skill, high-growth industries expected to add significant numbers of jobs over the next several years include scientific and technical fields, construction and finance. On the unskilled side, most of the growth will come from lower-wage employers such as restaurants, retail and call centers. TeamNEO’s study shows that the manufacturing sector that once dominated Ohio’s workforce has declined. Between 1990 and 2012, the region lost 185,480 manufacturing jobs as that sector fell from 23 percent of Northeast Ohio’s economy to only 14 percent. The jobs lost, were almost all unskilled positions that companies were able to move overseas. However, the manufacturing sector that remains is more productive and produces roughly the same volume of goods with 41 percent fewer employees than it had 20 years ago. Though there will be some unskilled job growth in the region, there are fewer of them then when manufacturing dominated the employment market. State, county and municipal entities are incentivizing businesses and creating jobs by providing financing and advice on the benefits of locating in the Northeast Ohio area. Investments are being made to motivate businesses to come to Lake County and create jobs. There should be public transit to support these investments. Investments to Attract Business for Employment Growth Business revenue is the key to increased tax supports for communities. State, county and local governments have dedicated business development offices and executives with the purpose of identifying new business opportunities, attracting those entities to their communities and assisting with the tasks necessary to help those businesses produce products and services as well as create jobs. Ohio boasts an impressive menu of programs to attract and grow businesses. These include state and local tax incentives, grants and low-interest financing help businesses to reduce risk and operate profitably. The following are three examples of Lake County businesses taking advantage of government programs to create local jobs:
State of Ohio Investments Government officials, state representatives and local economic development directors are encouraging business owners to learn about and take advantage of tax-credit, financing and funding programs such as: the Job Creation Tax Creation program, the Ohio Enterprise Bond Fund, the 166 Direct Loan program, the Innovation Ohio Loan Fund, Research and Development Investment Loan Fund, the Roadwork Development (629) program, the Ohio Workforce Guarantee program and the Ohio Third Frontier program. An example of a local business taking advantage of these programs is Mentor’s Metal Seal Precision, which secured a $5.1 million loan from the Ohio Department of Development to purchase a vacant 158,000 square-foot-plant in Mentor. The company made more than $1.7 million in improvements and purchased new equipment. By obtaining a loan from the State to help with relocation expenses and then a low-interest rate loan to modernize the facility, the company increased annual revenue in 2012 by $10 million and expanded its workforce from 150 to 200 employees. Page | 121
Metal Seal Precision was recruited by both Michigan and Indiana, when choosing to relocate, but instead made a commitment and stayed here in Lake County, contributing to this growth trend of manufacturing businesses along Tyler Boulevard.
Lake County Port Authority Investments The Lake County Port Authority was created in February 2007 to promote projects that will provide for the creation of jobs and employment opportunities to improve the economic welfare of the people residing in Lake County. In pursuit of this mission, the Lake County Port Authority is unique in the services it provides to assist would-be entrepreneurs to large corporations, small non-profits to large institutions and communities including business financing, fixed-rate bond fund programs, conduit financing programs, SBA 504 loans, and a Lake County Microloan program. Additionally the Port Authority assists with programs such as: Brownfield Reclamation which includes facilitating redevelopment and assisting in funding sources; Public Infrastructure which offers tax increment financing and special assessments; Small Business Development Center (SBDC) which provides free counselling and training programs for small businesses and would-be entrepreneurs; Site Selection which assists in finding locations for businesses looking to relocate in Lake County; and Enterprise Zone, which has special tax incentives offered to businesses that agree to invest in capital improvements and create jobs. An example of the Lake County Port Authority’s ability to create new job opportunities and economic development is the public-private partnership at the old Coe Manufacturing site. Since 2003, the City of Painesville has been seeking resources for remediation and clean-up of industrial pollutants. In 2009, during the economic downturn, the site was acquired by a competitor, USNR, and the business operations ceased. By 2012, the Port Authority and USNR created a public-private partnership to transform an abandoned brownfield site that no one was going to purchase and redevelop without remediation. The State of Ohio approved a $1.2 million grant to the Port Authority to be paired up with a $500,000 loan and local matching funds to begin the assessment, clean up, and improvement of the site. Here, the public-private partnership invested public money to rebuild the site so private entities could take advantage of it, but not have the overwhelming expense and insurmountable task of doing it alone. Today, the 25-acre former Coe site has 200,000 square feet available in what is anticipated to be a business park with opportunities for companies to lease or purchase space as there are already three potential tenants with up to 200 employees. The revitalization of the new Bank Street project area would create an increased demand for public transportation for shift workers to the new business district.
Municipal Investments As with state and county governments, local municipalities are eager to attract and sustain business development in their communities. Two examples of local entities within the governance of municipalities in Lake County are Mentor Economic Assistance Corporation (MEACO) and the Joint Economic Development District (JEDD) in Concord Township. MEACO’s mission is to advance economic development opportunities within Mentor. Their programs have created more than 1,600 jobs representing millions of dollars in investment. Metal Seal
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Precision’s relocation to Mentor from Willoughby was assisted by a Mentor Incentive Grant given by the city, which preserved 150 jobs for Northeast Ohio. The Joint Economic Development District in Concord provides the developing township about $600,000 annually. Concord earmarks much of its JEDD revenue for the Connector Road Project, which will extend Capital Parkway to SR-44 to create an economic development center with retail and housing to connect the new hospital developments with local retail, doctors’ offices and restaurants located along Crile Road. Community Expectation of Public Transit and Laketran’s Challenge These businesses expect public transportation to assist with reliable transportation services so the work force can access not only existing jobs, but also the opportunities of newly created jobs. These risk taking, forward thinking businesses are investing heavily to rebuild facilities, produce products and services and strengthen profits. Laketran does not currently offer service to Tyler Boulevard in Mentor or the JEDD in Concord, where many businesses are relocating. However, these companies and municipalities have clearly communicated to Laketran that they are having a hard time filling their job openings and the rising cost of operating an automobile is a concern among current and potential employees. These businesses need access to new employee markets, including potential employees without access to automobiles, and who live in adjacent counties (Cuyahoga and Ashtabula Counties) which only public transit can provide. Laketran should be able to respond to this dynamic by offering regular routes to support and service these growing businesses. The plan’s customer surveys reveal that in-county bus usage to travel to/from work destinations is relatively high, even for Dial-a-Ride. In terms of satisfaction with service on work destinations, 80 percent of commuter express customers agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, “Laketran is meeting the needs of people who need to get to work.” Local fixed route passengers, however, were markedly less satisfied with Laketran’s connection to jobs, with 14 percent disagreeing or strongly disagreeing with the statement, “Laketran is meeting the needs of people who need to get to work” However, due to the lack of a reliable, dedicated and increasing funding source for Laketran, it is not possible to fulfill these businesses expectations for additional service.
Manufacturing: A Component of the Employment Trend Even though jobs in the manufacturing sector have declined over the past two decades, there is still a significant trend taking place that cannot be ignored by public transit. Throughout the tumultuous past two decades, many of the manufacturing jobs lost were lower-skilled positions transferred overseas. While this impacted our local economy, it has created two situations worth noting. First, with manufacturing moving towards advanced technologies, businesses are increasing productivity with fewer workers. This resurgence in manufacturing, with an emphasis on advanced technologies, has been an increasing contributor to Ohio’s gross domestic product (GDP). Team NEO expects that between 2010 and 2020, manufacturing gross regional product (GRP) is projected to grow 39 percent, to a $43 billion sector of the economy, and believes that the shift from traditional manufacturing to advanced manufacturing is playing a critical role in the region’s economic transformation. A report from the Brookings Institute shows Ohio is a manufacturing heavyweight. Ohio is now home to the third-largest number of manufacturing jobs of any state. Mentor and Willoughby, two cities in
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eastern Lake County, topped Ohio’s 2002 Economic Census placing 7th and 8th respectively in the top ten cities with the most manufacturing companies. Lake County has an excellent transportation system for exports, readily available raw materials and components, ample fresh water supply and electric power, a favorable tax structure, and local governments committed to business. The second significant trend is that while the number of manufacturing jobs is not necessarily increasing to the high-level of two decades ago, the jobs of today and the next decade will require a more highly skilled work force. As manufacturing continues to play a crucial role in the region’s economy, there is a critical shortage of skilled workers to satisfy growing demand and to replace baby-boomers who are approaching retirement. This dynamic is creating a critical challenge for employers in the manufacturing and machine trades industries unless future generations enter the field. In order to meet the requirements of advanced technology positions, workers will need training and education to sharpen or learn new skill sets. Significant public and private investment in education is creating the avenues and the environment necessary for workers furloughed from manufacturing jobs of yesterday to regain the skills necessary to become competitive in the labor market for the jobs of tomorrow. This is a substantial part of the rebounding of the Ohio economy and a situation where, in order to be most effective and successful, public transit should have a stake. Community Expectation of Public Transit and Laketran’s Challenge As manufacturing continues to play a crucial role in the region’s economy, there is a critical shortage of skilled workers to satisfy growing demand and to replace baby-boomers who are approaching retirement. This dynamic is creating a critical challenge for employers in the manufacturing and machine trades industries unless future generations enter the field. According to the Alliance for Working Together (AWT), a foundation that represents 70+ manufacturing companies, mainly in Lake County, over 65,000 workers will be leaving northeast Ohio manufacturers due to retirements. In a letter dated July 27, 2012 to Laketran from the AWT Board of Directors, the directors stated that they are “… already feeling the crunch to find skilled workers and in many cases our positions go unfilled. So you can imagine that when we have good employees or new employees that exhibit promise, we want to remove any barriers for them to get to work on time and to return to their homes safely.” The biggest challenge to residents hopeful for new employment in Lake County is the lack of public transportation access to the Tyler Boulevard and Heisley Road corridors where many of the Mentor- area manufacturers are based. Improved pedestrian access and public transportation would offer employees access to affordable and reliable transportation for trainees and employees throughout the region to access these emerging opportunities for training and employment which many of these specialized jobs and industries will require. Given sufficient resources, Laketran can provide access to these emerging employment corridors by providing reliable fixed route transit services to the area tailored to meet the needs of the employers and employees in regard to shift schedules and changes and demand.
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Higher Education and Career Education Trends According to Thomas Kucharvy, founder and president of Summit Strategies, the Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010 Occupational Outlook Handbook, shows that 46 million jobs (30 percent of those in the U.S.) will soon require more than a high school education. The workforce of the future will be required to be highly educated and skilled. Lakeland Community College early on identified and seized With the rise in cost of living and the trend: individuals and businesses want affordable and the shifts in educational convenient access to the opportunities higher education has requirements, particular in the to offer. Already a major destination for Laketran riders, manufacturing sector, necessary Lakeland Community College has invested millions into its to retrain workers, community facilities, most notably the completion of its Holden colleges are already University Center in 2011, in order to educate the millennials demonstrating the significant without their leaving Lake County as well as capitalize on the emerging needs of Lake County’s businesses that require a role they will play in the future. retrained workforce. Education and Employment Trends Share Common Goals: Elevate the Work Force Community colleges and career education schools play important roles in helping their communities develop their economies. They do this by upgrading the skills of their community’s labor force, both in providing remedial and career education to “traditional” students who have just recently graduated from high school, and especially to older, non-traditional students. For many of these students, transportation is a real concern in their quest to upgrade their skills. For example, many community college students attend evening classes after completing their duties at their day jobs. These jobs often do not pay enough for these students to own and operate their own cars. This demographic relies on public transit to access these opportunities by attending evening and weekend classes. Auburn Career Center Invests in Career Education A May 2013 article in The News-Herald reported that high demand for skilled workers has prompted Auburn Career Center in Concord Township to build a $1.2 million building which will provide 15,000 square feet of state-of-the-art facilities and training space for the advanced manufacturing program and the heating, ventilation and air conditioning program. The expectation is this expansion will allow Auburn to keep up with the demand of rising enrollment. For those students interested in career education classes, the manufacturing sector is gaining in popularity, thanks to partnerships with local businesses. Auburn’s long tern goal is to offer even more programs to the work force. Data Shows Higher Education Will Play an Even Larger Role over the Next Decade The nation’s 1,200 community colleges are, and will continue to be, the primary source of education as the demand for individuals with two-year technical degrees grows faster than for those with a full university degree. Data shows that community colleges, which enroll a total of 11.8 million, or 43 percent of U.S. undergraduate students, play five critical but very different roles in our educational system, providing transfer education for students who will transfer to a four-year institution to pursue BS/BA degree; career education for those that will graduate with an Associate Degree and directly enter the workforce; development and remedial education for high school graduates who are not academically
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ready to enroll in college-level courses; continuing education, which entails non-credit courses for personal development and interest; and industry training, which is contracted by companies to provide training for specific jobs. Community Colleges are In-tune with What Local Businesses and Economies Need Since many vocational graduates tend to seek jobs in their own communities, most of these schools tend to be highly attuned to the needs of local businesses, tailoring courses and curricula to the needs of local industries and often partnering with specific companies to provide customized or contract job training, as where they develop programs that are tailored to the needs of specific companies, or develop cooperative education programs that combine classroom learning and practical (typically paid) on-the-job experience. Local colleges can also play much more proactive roles by partnering with state and local governments to provide business development services. They may partner with the state to create and operate entrepreneurial training centers or government-funded small business development (SBDCs) or participate in the creation of regional economic development plans. Community colleges also actively partner with government agencies and Chambers of Commerce to attract corporations to build or expand facilities in their communities by serving as a third-party training arm to teach local citizens the skills required by their new employers. These colleges also play another role in society as that of a feeder system to universities. A large percentage of students enter community colleges with the intention of transferring to four-year universities. The recession is prompting a growing numbers of four-year students to temporarily transfer back home to community colleges to cut costs and be closer to home. The result is low- income, minority or late blooming high school graduates who would not have been able to attend a four-year university ending up with four-year, and in some cases, graduate or professional degree. And with university costs doubling over the last decades the role of community colleges as a first- step to a four-year degree appears likely to increase. Holden University Center to Produce a Better Educated and Skilled Workforce In the 2009 to 2010 school year, private four-year colleges cost an average $26,273 per year for tuition and fees, while public four-year colleges cost an average of $7,020. Public two-year colleges are substantially less expensive, with an average cost of $2,544. In 2011, Lakeland Community College, through an innovative public-private partnership, built a state-of-the-art new 40,000-square-foot Holden University Center to provide students the opportunity to stay on campus and finish a four-year degree closer to home, saving students $18,000 to $30,000 to transfer and re-locate to a four-year institution. Data shows that those students who attend community colleges, especially those who graduate, are generally rewarded with higher-paying and more secure jobs than those with only a high school diploma. Bureau of Labor Statistics figures, for example, show that those students who attend, but did not receive an Associates’ degree from a community college, typically earn 13 percent more than those with just a high school diploma. Those who complete a degree earn 21 percent more than those with Associates’ degrees. In 2012, Lakeland served 9,307 students including Holden University Center students. In recent years, the traditional student population has changed to include traditional students seeking affordable higher education, working adults attending part-time, and high school students looking to
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get a head start on college. The landscape of the local community college has changed, with a growing need for higher education in the workplace and local access to an affordable Bachelor’s degree. Lakeland’s Business and Engineering Technologies Division offers numerous degree and certificate programs for vocational training. Lakeland's Workforce Development and Continuing Education Division promote workforce and economic development by assisting individuals, firms, and communities in achieving their highest potential. Community Expectation of Public Transit and Laketran’s Challenge Fundamentally, access to safe, reliable and affordable transportation goes hand-in-hand with higher education, which is why many colleges and universities are linked to transportation systems. Simply stated, without transportation access, students cannot avail themselves of the educational opportunities that exist. While thousands of courses are now offered online from a variety of colleges and universities nationwide, as they are at Lakeland, they tend to be costly and are otherwise not a good alternative for many students. Not only does the education trend support the need for more public transportation, but strong data within the Employment and Healthcare sections support the need for better access to education. While Laketran provided more than 65,000 trips to Lakeland Community College in 2012, many courses are held on weeknights and weekends when Laketran does not operate. Classes at both Lakeland and Auburn do not end until 10:00 PM on weekdays, while Laketran’s last departure from Lakeland is 7:05 PM. The lack of evening or Saturday bus service is a major concern to many students whose programs of study may only offer required specialized courses at limited times and on specific days of the week within any given school year. Additionally, there is no local route bus service to Auburn Career Center, which is located near the upcoming I-90/SR-44 intersection. With so many different demographic groups accessing higher education and with the high need for advanced education and training, it is both a necessity and a responsibility for the public to provide extended service to these Lake County educational institutions. Furthermore, having access to affordable transportation allows people to conserve personal financial resources needed to own, operate and insure an automobile to spend on the tuition, books and other costs associate with obtaining a degree. Not only does the education trend support the need for more public transportation, but data within the Employment and Healthcare sections support the need for better access to educational opportunities.
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Health and Human Services Trend Laketran also provides public transit services to clients of over 30 health and human services agencies that are investing millions of dollars in programs to improve the quality of life for individuals in Lake County. When taken together as a whole, the number of people served, within the context of government supported health and human service agencies and non-profit programs, reaches thousands of Lake County residents. Laketran serves this broad group of organizations and entities that cover the entire spectrum of health and human service agencies.
ABLE/GED classes Lake County Family Planning ADAMHS Board Lake County Free Clinic Beacon Health Lake County Job & Family Services BRIDGES Lake Geauga Recovery Center Camp Sue Osborne Lake County Senior Center Catholic Charities (Hispanic Lake County Veterans Commission Outreach) Lifeline Community Dialysis Center NAMI Crossroads New Directions for Living Extended Housing (Homeless Project Hope & Families Moving Outreach) Forward Fair Housing Resource Center Salvation Army Food Pantries Signature Health Iris Project Society for Rehabilitation Lake County Board of United Way agencies Developmentally Disabilities Western Reserve Counseling Lake County Council on Aging Windsor-Laurelwood LC General Health District/WIC YMCA
Health and Human Service agencies throughout Lake County depend on Laketran, but have unmet transportation needs. These services can and should extend into the evening and weekend.
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These agencies are dependent on public transportation services and make substantial investments in programs covering a broad range of services. Many clients of these health and human service agencies are dependent on public transportation. Critical programs and services designed to resolve the problems that plague our modern society go unplanned and unimplemented due to lack of transportation. Drugs, alcohol and other public health woes are affecting not only lower income but middle class people, who are beginning to use these health and human service resources. Some programs are offered on Saturday, in the evening and on weekends. Health and human service agencies want to expand their programs, but without public transportation, expansion is very difficult. For example, on one night in January 2012, more than 235 individuals were identified as homeless during an annual point-in-time count conducted by the Coalition on Housing and Support Services in Lake County, while in 2011, there were only 125 individuals. In January 2013, the Ecumenical Shelter Network of Lake County opened Families Moving Forward, a day homeless shelter with a mission to help persons who are homeless reach independence. Families Moving Forward, the only day shelter in Lake County, is not accessible by public transportation. The people behind these organizations are working in earnest to serve the poor, disadvantaged and recovering members of our community. Mental health issues, alcoholism, drug abuse and other societal ills do not stop at 8:00 PM or cease and desist over the weekend. Neither should public transit. Bus service should be restored for evenings and weekends to continue to serve these people and assist them on their road to recovery. Community Expectation of Public Transit and Laketran’s Challenge An answer to today’s real life problems are the health and human service agencies that are making investments in these programs to improve the quality of life for Lake County residents. Most consumers dependent on these services are also dependent on public transportation to access these services.
Retail Shopping and Services Industries Trend Of the 780,000 riders Laketran served in 2012, Laketran estimates over 300,000 trips were taken to get riders to and from employment. In a 2011 Laketran customer survey, service and retail jobs rated as the top two employment sectors for local fixed route riders. Most people shop in the Major destinations of Laketran riders are Great Lakes Mall and evenings and on other retail stores, restaurants and service-oriented businesses weekends; and retail and along Laketran routes. In 2012, over 50,000 trips are taken to service employees rely on the Great Lakes Mall for shopping and employment. Shopping public transit to get to and and employment hours extend beyond 8:00 PM, when there is no from work to serve longer any Laketran service, which presents a challenge for many customers. workers and shoppers. Investments to Meet the Retail Trend In 2012, Great Lakes Mall, Laketran’s central transfer hub, invested $10 million into the Simon Property in Mentor. Other recent retail investments by major big box stores include two Super Walmart stores in Eastlake and Madison, two Target stores in Willoughby and Mentor, Petitti’s
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Garden and Home Goods in Mentor, Big Lots in Willoughby and the expansion of Marc’s in Painesville Township. New national restaurant chains include DiBella’s, Melt Bar & Grille, BurgerFi, Tony Sacco’s, Applebee’s and various Menchie’s and FroYo stores have emerged throughout the county in the past two years. The Holiday Inn on Reynolds Road in Mentor reinvested $5 million to update the look of the hotel, bar and restaurant. Retail Wage Earners Rely on Public Transportation The median hourly wage of retail workers is $10.15 per hour, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As one of Laketran’s major destinations, this is a critical point because studies show workers earning this wage level rely heavily on public transportation because many cannot afford to own and maintain an automobile. Some service employees, such as food servers, have the ability to earn a higher wage; but are prohibited from taking the lucrative evening and weekend shifts because they do not have transportation to/from work including via public transportation. Community Expectation of Public Transit and Laketran’s Challenge Laketran provides 50,000 annual trips to the mall, but the needs of riders and workers are not being met because service is not offered in the evenings and on weekends. Laketran does not operate for as long as the retail and service sectors are open on weeknights, and does not operate at all on Saturdays or Sundays, when all Mall businesses are open for business. The majority of retail, food service, gas stations and service-oriented businesses, heavy investors within our community, are open past 8:00 PM. Lower wage workers need access to public transportation to get to these jobs frequently requesting later weeknight and weekend service to better access employment, especially on the weekends.
Conclusion Our society studies trends to understand the past, but more importantly, to try to determine what the future will look like. Demographic patterns are an important component of the current service assessment because they examine the future market for transit. Population and employment density indicate where the majority of transit users begin and end their trips and projections of these indicators show where transit use will expand or contract in the future. Other demographic patterns show the locations of concentrations of people either in residential areas or in terms healthcare, education, retail and manufacturing destinations within Lake County. Characteristics of these areas and the demographic make-up indicate that these areas are more likely to use transit than the general population, including seniors, people with disabilities, and the millennial generation. Together these developments and demographic patterns described above serve as market indicators of existing and potential future demand for Laketran service. The six developing trends analyzed in this section along with the corresponding data and suggestions, support the need for additional funding to extend transit service as outlined in this plan. Even though the 2009 service cuts initially diminished ridership, the upward trajectory of ridership growth was not altered. Unquestionably, the trends examined in this report demonstrate that Lake County is economically moving forward and with it, the demand for Laketran services continues to grow. Yet the challenge for Laketran is that the fundamental deficiencies of its “1988 tax model” financial structure will not allow the organization the latitude to break through its current stagnant pattern without a significant infusion of new funding. Changes in government at the state and federal levels,
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what they are capable of financially supporting versus that Hundreds of millions of dollars are which the community’s growth demands, rarely match in being invested by the public, private the current landscape of the American economic lifecycle. and not-for-profit sectors to improve This can be seen played out in any state or community across the U.S. As the Great Recession subsides and the quality of life of Lake County public and private investment begins anew, communities residents. These stakeholders and across the nation are responding in somewhat unique those dependent on transit are ways, much as Lake County is now doing. That is, savvy expecting Laketran to play a community leaders, businesses and citizens are taking significant role to provide access to matters into their own hands to ensure the economic these opportunities. Without an vitality of their localities and regions by supporting additional source of funding, Laketran economic investment across a variety of sectors – as is cannot meet these expectations. now occurring in Lake County – in order to respond to the population trends and demographic shifts particular to their own areas. They are structuring community design, housing and healthcare and transit to meet the unique needs of their communities. Public Transportation has a significant role to play to help ensure access to the opportunities this massive investment in the future is creating. Moreover, as the population ages, the need for medical trips increases, adding an even greater demand on future Dial-a-Ride and local bus route services. Older Americans reliance on reduced, fixed-incomes, make older people more likely to need public transportation on economic grounds, as well as reasons of functional immobility or disability. Given Lake County’s projected demographic shift to an older, more disabled population, in the not-too- distant future, Laketran will experience greater demand to provide expanded service to help mitigate the physical and economic challenges of seniors. This 10-Year Plan presents Laketran with both challenges and opportunities over the next decade. Laketran could play a key role in providing access to these new developments and emerging destinations, as well as meeting the needs demonstrated by the changing population trends. For local business and institutions, as well as the transit user, these new investments will offer access to a wealth of opportunities. But right now, access to transit is the missing link. Instead, the reality that is both crucial and significant to recognize is the simple fact that Laketran is not now meeting the demands of its ridership, or public and private stakeholders represented by the entities discussed in this section, to provide reliable and affordable transportation to emerging destinations. Because Laketran does not have a reliable, dedicated and growing funding source, Laketran is, and will continue to be, challenged and largely unable to provide adequate or additional service to seniors, people with disabilities, employees and students. With such limited services, Lake County’s transit-dependent populations are confined after 8:00 PM on weekdays and are without any access to transportation from Friday night at 8:00 PM until Monday mornings at 6:00 AM. Structuring community design, housing and healthcare to meet the needs of seniors creates multiple social and economic benefits for the entire community. Adequate public transit service, pedestrian accessibility, housing type diversity and commercial/residential integration are all quality growth goals that an aging in place society requires. While Laketran’s public, private, and non-profit partners are investing in the people of our community, Laketran must continue to operate within its financial constraints. Securing an additional
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funding source will need to be strongly considered for Laketran to meet these relevant public transportation demands for the future of Lake County.
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Chapter 7: Financial Capacity
Financial scenarios provide a sound analytical basis for measuring the financial impacts of alternative courses of action for the future. Alternative financial scenarios allow agencies to measure and/or project the results of alternative policies for service development and alternative policies of local (sales tax) financial capacities and their outcomes. Three financial scenarios have been modeled to provide information and insight into future courses of action that Laketran may take. These three financial scenarios have been prepared for the Laketran Board of Trustees to support decisions for the development of future service and sales tax policies. This section presents the following information to evaluate alternative courses of action for Laketran’s future development: 1. A snapshot of the 2013 forecast of Laketran’s current Operating & Capital Budgets and the assumptions on which they were based (passed by the Laketran Board in November 2012). 2. A 2014-2023 trend analysis of projected operating and capital revenues and expenses and financial guidance on when agency-altering issues are likely to arise and how they may be addressed in future years. 3. The information necessary to decide which option, renewal or increase, should be pursued to fund Laketran beyond the expiration of its existing sales tax levy in July 2014.
Financial forecasting is more of an “art” than a science. It is extremely challenging to forecast what the price of fuel will be next week, let alone what it will be ten years from now. Therefore, the information presented in this chapter is based on assumptions derived from what is known today and historical trends over the last three years. Historical and current trends are more indicative of the future than a Financial forecasting is more of an longer historical period, when more federal and state aid “art” than a science. However, recent was invested in transit services. Significant changes in experience indicates that Laketran sales tax revenues, federal and state aid, Medicaid and/or currently has no stable, reliable, and other expenses outside of Laketran’s direct control (i.e. growing source of funding to offset fuel, insurance, etc.) can have dramatic consequences on projected deficits in the future. the bottom line of forecasts.
2013 Operating Budget and Assumptions In November 2012, the Laketran Board of Trustees adopted a balanced 2013 operating budget. The 2013 Laketran Operating Budget included the following assumptions: Fare revenues are projected to decrease by 2.1 percent – This decrease is attributed to the projected decrease in commuter express ridership based on a projected long-term decline in downtown commuting, caused by businesses moving out of the Cleveland CBD , growing telecommuting and a growing retirement rate among Lake County residents; Sales tax revenues are projected to increase by 2.3 percent – Although sales tax revenues are projected to increase over previous years, Laketran is still not receiving the same level of
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sales tax revenues it has seen in the past reflecting the stagnation or slow growth from the 2008 financial crisis and resulting recession; Federal aid, state aid, and Medicaid revenues are projected to remain constant; Fuel expenses are projected to increase by 42.6 percent – The cost of fuel is projected to dramatically increase due to the expiration of Laketran’s “price risk management contracts”. These contracts do not appear to be worth renewing given the high price of fuel in the current “futures” market. Therefore, fuel costs have been projected at market rates which are substantially higher than any favorable pricing Laketran paid in 2010-2012. Additionally, it is not prudent for Laketran to enter into any multi-year contracts that extend beyond the life of the existing tax levy; Salaries and benefits are projected to increase by 0.7 percent; Utilities, parts, and tires are projected to increase by 3.2 percent; Purchased services are projected to increase by 12.8 percent – these services are projected to increase due to software upgrades, increased maintenance contracts for software, and additional purchased transportation services needed; and Property and vehicle insurance costs are projected to increase by 3.5 percent. With four months of actual revenues and expenditures for 2013 already realized, an updated budget for 2013 has been prepared. This update projects that $13.4 million in operating revenues and $13.0 million in operating expenses which results in a surplus of $400,000 at year’s end. This updated projection is reflected in all three financial forecasting scenarios that follow and constitutes the baseline budget year from which all further budget projections are made.
Uncertainty of Key Revenue Sources and Expenses As mentioned earlier, many of the key revenue sources and expense line items in the assumptions above are extremely sensitive and are subject to change as external conditions also change. These fluctuating revenue sources and expenses include the following: Sales tax revenue – sales tax revenues in 2013 have still not reached 2007 levels broken down month-to-month. Therefore, the lack of growth and/or stagnation in Laketran’s principal source of revenue introduces concern in Laketran’s financial capacity to maintain existing levels of service for the next ten years if these revenues do not improve; Federal aid – Laketran receives substantial financial funding from the FTA’s Section 5307 Program. Federal aid has been cut from 2011-2013 by approximately 4 percent annually. These funds are used mainly for capitalized maintenance costs and the replacement of obsolete equipment. In addition, Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) funds are also used to purchase vehicles. Since the FRP was implemented in 2009, Laketran has reduced the number of Dial-a-Ride buses purchased from 16 to 12 in its annual vehicle replacement program, trimming the number of buses because of service cuts under the FRP. It is also important to note that the MAP-21 legislation expires in 2014. Future federal funding remains uncertain as Congress debates various measures to reduce the deficit. State aid – State aid has been cut from State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2011-2013 by approximately 11 percent annually. Based on the new biennial state budget currently under consideration, it appears that the level of state funding for public transit will not increase any time before June 30, 2015.
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Medicaid funding – Medicaid funding is a relatively new revenue stream for Laketran that has been very successful in helping to mitigate further service reductions since the FRP was passed. However, future levels of Medicaid funding remain uncertain as Congress debates various Medicare and Medicaid reforms. Since its inception as a revenue stream, Medicaid revenues have increased as the number of eligible Laketran riders has increased. Now that the program has matured, Medicaid revenues are growing at a decreasing rate and are projected to reach their peak in the near future because practically all Medicaid-eligible Laketran riders have enrolled in the program. Fuel and Oil - Fuel and oil are both commodities that experience very significant price volatility. Forecasting fuel and oil prices for each of the next ten years is difficult at best. While forecasting for these key revenue sources and expenses can be difficult, it remains important to monitor them as their variations from assumed levels can have a material impact on whether year-end budgets project a deficit or surplus.
Alternative Financial Forecast Scenarios (2014-2023) The biggest concern facing Laketran now is ensuring that existing levels of service are maintained and that the increasing demand for transit services in Lake County in the short and long term are adequately met given the funding uncertainties that Laketran faces. As mentioned earlier, Laketran implemented its FRP in July 2009 in order to maintain its financial capacity until the expiration of its ¼ of one percent sales tax authority in 2014 (See Chapter 3 for the details of the Financial Recovery Plan). As good stewards of the taxpayer’s money, the FRP has been successful in meeting Laketran’s immediate financial goals. However, the FRP was not intended to be a permanent solution to structural weaknesses in funding Laketran’s transportation services, but rather a short term solution to what was thought to be a short term, albeit severe, economic downturn. With this in mind, three financial scenarios have been modeled to provide analysis and insight into Laketran’s financial capacity over the next ten years (2014-2023). The scenarios were created in keeping with historical data from Laketran’s last three years rather than a longer period of time, as 2009 played a pivotal role in the way Laketran has operated since then. It is important to recognize that history and known current trends and past performance does not guarantee the future performance of Laketran or any entity as it is simply too difficult to predict future events and/or obstacles. The alternative financial scenarios are useful to provide indicators of potential future impacts. The information presented here should be read with that in mind. This is a macro-economic outlook at the trends and needs of Lake County residents and Laketran. This outlook should not only provide insight into Laketran’s financial capacity, but also serve as an “indicator” to help shape transportation policy for the agency and direct the financial investment of funds for future Operating and Capital Budgets. The various financial forecasting scenarios being presented in this plan have been developed with Laketran’s biggest concern is ensuring the understanding that many of the revenue and that existing levels of service are expense line items could be projected to be higher maintained and future needs are met or lower than depicted. For example, because of given the funding uncertainties that the uncertainty surrounding future levels of federal Laketran faces. and state funding, the three scenarios project
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federal and state funding to be stagnant over the next ten years, consequently causing the financial bottom line of any of the scenarios to dramatically differ should stagnation not result. However, the likelihood that these funds will be significantly increased are low, as the last three years have shown decreases in both federal and state funding each year from 2011 to 2013. The takeaway from this is that increasing or decreasing (within reason) any one or combination of budgetary line items, will only shift the need to make a critical decision (to further reduce service or pursue an increase in local sales tax) by only one year earlier or later. Three Financial Forecasting Scenarios: 2014-2023 Scenario A – A ten year financial forecast which maintains existing services with a ¼ of one percent sales tax renewal. This baseline scenario with sales tax renewal builds off of the updated 2013 operating and capital forecasts, layering in operating budgets and capital projects from 2014-2023 to show the combined effect on the bottom line in any given year. Scenario B – A ten year financial forecast with service reductions of $4.8 million beginning in 2017 with a ¼ of one percent sales tax renewal. This scenario reshapes the baseline by layering in the $4.8 million of cuts in January 2017. Only by implementing service cuts of this magnitude would Laketran be able to survive with just a renewal in 2013 of the existing ¼ of one percent sales tax levy. Scenario C – A ten year financial forecast with $3 million in service restoration and improvements in 2014/2015 with a ¼ of one percent sales tax plus an additional ¼ of one percent new sales tax. This scenario reshapes the baseline by layering in $3 million in service restoration and improvements in January 2014/2015. However, the additional sales tax revenue would begin being collected by the state in August 2014, and Laketran would begin receiving these revenues around October and/or November of the same year. A fundamental principal relevant in the three scenarios provided above is that Laketran must maintain a cash balance of approximately $6 million. Currently, Laketran’s budget expenses average $1.1 million monthly (based on the 2013 budget). Should Laketran not be able to maintain a cash balance of approximately $6 million, Laketran will experience financial problems with meeting their cash flow requirements. Maintaining a financial balance is vital to the day-to-day operation of the agency as federal funds (15.5 percent of operating funds for 2013) are not always approved at the beginning of the calendar year for Laketran to be able to draw on them as they are earned. In the past, there have been occasions when federal funds have not been available for a year. Similarly, state funding (6 percent of operating funds for 2013) is not received monthly and usually takes approximately four to six months to become available. Key Assumptions in the 10 Year Forecast Scenarios The 2013 budget passed by the Board of Trustees in November 2012 with its accompanied changes due to the 2013 four month actual numbers is the basis for this ten-year forecast. Operating Budget projections annually from 2014 to 2023 are as follows for all forecasts. Assumptions that are specific to a scenario are listed with that scenario. Detailed operation and capital budgets are presented at the end of this chapter.
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The annual key assumptions in all three scenarios include the following: Fare revenues are projected to increase 1.5 percent; Sales tax revenues are projected to increase 0.5 percent; Federal Section 5307 funds are projected to remain constant; State aid revenues are projected to remain constant; Medicaid revenues are projected to remain constant; Fuel expenses are projected to increase 6.0 percent; Salaries and benefits are projected to increase 3.0 percent; Utilities, parts, and tires are projected to increase 4.0 percent; Services are projected to increase 5.0 percent; and Property and vehicle insurance are projected to increase 3.0 percent. Line item capital budget expenditures from 2014 to 2023 are forecasted based upon anticipated needs for vehicle replacements and renovation and modernization of facilities and equipment. The tables that accompany each forecast scenario present a summary of total projected revenues, total projected operating expenses, projected operating income (deficit), local contribution for capital projects and cash on hand. The tables provided at the end of the chapter list the detailed line items which correspond with the tables and make up the budget forecasts with cash balances to maintain existing levels of service and meet capital needs.
Forecast Scenario A – Existing Services and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal Forecast Scenario A is presented in summary form in Table 7.1 and in detail in Attachment A. Scenario A maintains existing levels of Laketran’s local fixed route, commuter express and Dial-a- Ride services while renewing Laketran’s sales tax in 2013. Forecast Scenario A projects revenue decreases from 2013 to 2014 and beyond due to the one-time fuel initiative allowance granted by the federal government that is no longer available as a revenue source beyond 2013. Expenses are projected to increase approximately 3 percent in 2014. In addition, it is estimated that 2014 capital projects will cost Laketran $900,000. Laketran’s local share of capital expenses over the ten year period (2014-2023) ranges between $300,000 and $1,200,000 and averages $672,000 annually. Table7.1 presents the key budget totals that measure financial capacity during the 2013–2023 horizon. The budget details are presented in Attachment A. Beginning in 2014, Laketran will face operating budget deficits that are projected to increase annually from $1.1 million in 2014 to $5.8 million in 2023 (See Projected Operating Income (Deficit) in Table 7.1). In addition to increasing operating deficits, Laketran will be required to provide 20 percent local matching funds to draw down the 80 percent federal funding requirements for its capital needs (See Local Contribution per Capital Projects in Table Delaying the ballot initiative until 7.1). 2016 would result in $1 million With just a renewal of the ¼ of one percent sales tax levy, per year less in service Laketran will still need to transfer funds from its cash restoration and improvements. balance (cash on hand) into the 2014, 2015, and 2016 operating budgets to eliminate projected operating deficits and avoid further reductions in service while also using its cash balance to draw down the effects of the reduction in federal funding to meet
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its capital needs. These actions will reduce Laketran’s “Cash on Hand” from $14.1 million in 2013 to only $7.7 million in 2016. Since Laketran requires a $6 million cash balance for its cash flow needs, 2016 is deemed a critical decision making year. Facing additional deficits in 2017 through 2023, Laketran must decide to either go back on the ballot in 2016 for an increase in the sales tax levy or make dramatic cuts in service beginning in January 2017, since further reliance on its cash balances will diminish these funds below its cash flow requirements. The consequence of waiting until 2016 to request an increase in the sales tax levy revenue (assuming it would pass at that time) is that Laketran would be restricted to spend only $2 million instead of $3 million to restore service and implement new services (see Scenario C below). Laketran would be constrained to spend only $2 million per year because: In order to maintain existing levels of service from 2014, Laketran will have to transfer into its operating budgets approximately $6.3 million from its cash balance to close projected operating deficits without the availability of additional sales tax revenues beginning in 2014; and If the full $3 million per year is spent beginning in 2017, Laketran would not have sufficient revenues to sustain the proposed level of service beyond 5 years of the 10 year levy. The consequence of not seeking an additional sales tax levy or failure at the ballot in 2016, would mean that Laketran would have no other alternative than to drastically eliminate all fixed route and commuter express service beginning in 2017 and operate a more limited and smaller Dial-a-Ride service. Table 7.1: Forecast Scenario A – Existing Services and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal
RENEWAL 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Revenue $13.4 $12.3 $12.7 $12.8 $12.8 $12.9 $12.9 $13.0 $13.1 $13.1 $13.2
Total Operating Expenses $13.0 $13.4 $13.9 $14.8 $15.0 $15.6 $16.2 $16.8 $17.6 $18.2 $19.0
Projected Operating income (Deficit)$0.4($1.1) ($1.2) ($2.0) ($2.2) ($2.7) ($3.3) ($3.8) ($4.5) ($5.1) ($5.8)
Local Contribution per Capital Projects ($0.3) ($0.9) ($0.9) ($0.3) ($0.8) ($0.8) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($1.2) ($0.9)
Cash on Hand (12/31) * $14.1 $12.1 $10.0 $7.7 $4.7 $1.2 ($2.4) ($6.5) ($11.3) ($17.6) ($24.3)
*Cash on hand 01/01/2013 $14.1 million
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Laketran’s estimated revenue loss due to the exemption of certain e-commerce (internet) sales from Ohio’s sales tax is approximately $600,000 annually. If Congress or the Ohio General Assembly passes legislation making all internet sales subject to sales tax collections, Table 7.2 shows the financial impact of this change. With the passage of this legislation and collecting these additional revenues beginning in January 2014, the same decisions Laketran would have to make (highlighted in Table 7.1) would only be postponed approximately one year, until 2017. Table 7.2: Forecast Scenario A – Existing Services and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal with Sales Tax on Internet Sales
RENEWAL + INTERNET SALES (2014) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Revenue $13.4 $12.9 $13.3 $13.4 $13.4 $13.5 $13.5 $13.6 $13.7 $13.7 $13.8
Total Operating Expenses $13.0 $13.4 $13.9 $14.8 $15.0 $15.6 $16.2 $16.8 $17.6 $18.2 $19.0
Projected Operating income (Deficit)$0.4($0.5) ($0.6) ($1.4) ($1.6) ($2.1) ($2.7) ($3.2) ($3.9) ($4.5) ($5.2)
Local Contribution per Capital Projects ($0.3) ($0.9) ($0.9) ($0.2) ($0.8) ($0.8) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($1.2) ($0.8)
Cash on Hand (12/31) * $14.1 $12.7 $11.2 $9.6 $7.2 $4.3 $1.3 ($2.2) ($6.4) ($12.1) ($18.1) *Cash on hand 01/01/2013 $14.1 million
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Forecast Scenario B –Service Reductions and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal Forecast Scenario B is presented in summary form in Table 7.3 and in detail in Attachment B. Scenario B reduces services by $4.8 million, beginning in 2017, while maintaining Laketran’s ¼ of one percent sales tax through 2023. The budget presented in Table 7.3 and Attachment B depicts the impact of these reductions to mitigate future operating deficits projected beyond 2017 (Table 7.3). This scenario goes into effect if Laketran had to operate through 2023 with only the revenues from the renewal of the existing ¼ of one percent sales tax levy in 2013 in addition to Laketran not seeking an increase in the sales tax levy in 2016 or a 2016 ballot initiative to increase Laketran’s sales tax failed. Cuts of this magnitude mean all local fixed route service would be eliminated as well as all commuter express services to downtown Cleveland. Dial-a-Ride service would have to be restricted to not exceed a certain number of trips per day (i.e. only essential trip purposes on a first come, first served basis). Cuts of this magnitude would affect people with disabilities, seniors, college students, people going to work etc. (See Chapter 8 for more detail on services to be cut, dollars to be saved and groups that would be significantly impacted). Moreover, the opportunities afforded by providing expanded Laketran service, such as connections to the medical facilities in Concord or the industrial corridor along Heisley and Tyler Boulevard, would not be possible. Local financial requirements for capital purchases decrease after 2017 because fewer vehicles will be replaced after service cuts are initiated in 2017. Table 7.3: Forecast Scenario B –Service Reductions and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax Renewal
CUTS OF $4.83 MILLION OF SVCS (2017) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Revenue $13.4 $12.3 $12.7 $12.8 $11.5 $11.5 $11.5 $11.6 $11.7 $11.7 $11.7
Total Operating Expenses $13.0 $13.4 $13.9 $14.8 $10.2 $10.6 $11.0 $11.5 $12.1 $12.4 $13.0
Projected Operating income (Deficit)$0.4($1.1) ($1.2) ($2.0) $1.3 $0.9 $0.5 $0.1 ($0.4) ($0.7) ($1.3)
Local Contribution per Capital Projects ($0.3) ($0.9) ($0.9) ($0.2) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.4) ($0.3)
Cash on Hand (12/31) * $14.1 $12.1 $10.0 $7.8 $8.8 $9.4 $9.6 $9.4 $8.7 $7.6 $6.0
*Cash on hand 01/01/2013 $14.1 million
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Forecast Scenario C – Service Restoration/Increases and ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax and ¼ of One Percent Additional Sales Tax Forecast Scenario C is presented in summary form in Table 7.4 and in detail in Attachment C. Scenario C restores service from the cuts made in 2009 and meets increasing demand for transit service by $3.0 million, with an increase in Laketran’s sales tax in 2014 while maintaining Laketran’s original ¼ of one percent sales tax through 2023. The budget summarized in Table 7.4 and presented in detail in Attachment C shows the impacts of the following: a new ½ of one percent sales tax levy to replace the existing ¼ of one percent levy that will expire in July 2014 an investment of $3 million annually to restore services (implemented in 2014/2015) suspended in 2009 and add new services to access the opportunities being created from investments being made by the public, private and non-profits sectors to improve the quality of life for Lake County residents. Table 7.4: Forecast Scenario C – Restoration and Increases in Services with a ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax and ¼ of One Percent Additional Sales Tax
2013 INCREASE $3 MILLION IN SVCS 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total Revenue $13.4 $14.3 $20.7 $20.9 $21.0 $21.1 $21.1 $21.3 $21.3 $21.5 $21.6
Total Operating Expenses $13.0 $15.0 $17.4 $18.3 $19.0 $19.7 $20.5 $21.3 $22.1 $23.0 $24.0
Projected Operating income (Deficit)$0.4($0.7) $3.3 $2.6 $2.0 $1.4 $0.6 $0.0 ($0.8) ($1.5) ($2.4)
Local Contribution per Capital Projects ($0.3) ($0.9) ($0.9) ($0.3) ($0.8) ($0.8) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($0.3) ($1.2) ($0.9)
Cash on Hand (12/31) * $14.1 $12.5 $14.9 $17.2 $18.4 $19.0 $19.3 $19.0 $17.9 $15.2 $11.9
*Cash on hand 01/01/2013 $14.1 million
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The Future of Laketran’s Service and Financial Capacity The three scenarios presented in this section are subject to a variety of uncertain impacts that could have a dramatic positive or negative impact on Laketran’s bottom operating budget in any given year and resulting financial capacity. Given the “art” of The various financial scenarios all forecasting, these scenarios have been constructed point to the same conclusion: to provide the Laketran Board of Trustees with the Laketran cannot sustain existing levels background information needed to gain adequate of service without additional revenues. insight into Laketran’s financial capacity over the The question is not whether Laketran next ten years and provide the analysis and insight required so that informed decisions can be made as must seek an increase in the sales tax to what levy option (i.e. renewal or increase) should but rather when. be put on the November 2013 ballot.
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ATTACHMENT A - SCENARIO A EXISTING SERVICES AND ¼ of One Percent SALES TAX RENEWAL OPERATING BUDGET RENEWAL TEN YEAR FORECAST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Operations & Maintenance Operating Income Fares, Commuter Express$ 655,000 $ 664,170 $ 673,468 $ 682,897 $ 692,457 $ 702,152 $ 711,982 $ 721,950 $ 732,057 $ 742,306 $ 752,698 Fares, Local Fixed Route$ 265,000 $ 268,710 $ 272,472 $ 276,287 $ 280,155 $ 284,077 $ 288,054 $ 292,087 $ 296,176 $ 300,322 $ 304,527 Fares, Dial-a-Ride$ 431,000 $ 437,034 $ 443,152 $ 449,357 $ 455,648 $ 462,027 $ 468,495 $ 475,054 $ 481,705 $ 488,449 $ 495,287 TOTAL FARES$ 1,351,000 $ 1,369,914 $ 1,389,093 $ 1,408,540 $ 1,428,260 $ 1,448,255 $ 1,468,531 $ 1,489,090 $ 1,509,938 $ 1,531,077 $ 1,552,512 Advertising$ 75,000 $ 75,975 $ 76,963 $ 77,963 $ 78,977 $ 80,003 $ 81,043 $ 82,097 $ 83,164 $ 84,245 $ 85,341 Total Operating Revenue $ 1,426,000 $ 1,445,889 $ 1,466,055 $ 1,486,503 $ 1,507,236 $ 1,528,259 $ 1,549,574 $ 1,571,187 $ 1,593,102 $ 1,615,322 $ 1,637,852
Non Operating Revenues TRADITIONAL SUBSIDIES Sales Tax Revenue$ 7,600,000 $ 7,638,000 $ 7,676,190 $ 7,714,571 $ 7,753,144 $ 7,791,910 $ 7,830,869 $ 7,870,023 $ 7,909,374 $ 7,948,920 $ 7,988,665 Federal Capitalized Maintenance$ 1,400,000 $ 1,428,000 $ 1,556,560 $ 1,587,691 $ 1,619,445 $ 1,651,834 $ 1,684,871 $ 1,718,568 $ 1,752,939 $ 1,787,998 $ 1,823,758 State E & D$ 668,798 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 State Capitalized Maintenance$ 239,074 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 TOTAL TRADITIONAL SUBSIDIES$ 9,907,872 $ 9,788,000 $ 9,954,750 $ 10,024,262 $ 10,094,589 $ 10,165,743 $ 10,237,740 $ 10,310,591 $ 10,384,313 $ 10,458,919 $ 10,534,423 NEW SUBSIDIES New Freedom Dialysis$ 75,000 $ 26,344 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - New Freedom Funds - Travel$ 15,000 $ 20,672 $ 2,769 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - New Freedom Funds - Admin$ 4,500 $ 2,351 $ 138 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Medicaid NET$ 375,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 Medicaid IO Waivers$ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 Society IO Waivers$ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 Formula Funds ADA - Federal$ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 Federal Operating Assistance$ 33,320 $ (186,600) $ 160,760 $ 125,467 $ 89,469 $ 52,750 $ 15,297 $ (22,905) $ (61,871) $ (101,617) $ (142,157) One Time Fuel initative$ 771,484 $ - $ - $ - Federal Cap Main - Purch Trans$ 200,000 $ 204,000 $ 208,080 $ 212,242 $ 216,486 $ 220,816 $ 225,232 $ 229,737 $ 234,332 $ 239,019 $ 243,799 TOTAL NEW SUBSIDIES$ 1,998,904 $ 971,367 $ 1,276,347 $ 1,242,309 $ 1,210,555 $ 1,178,166 $ 1,145,129 $ 1,111,432 $ 1,077,061 $ 1,042,002 $ 1,006,242
Interest Income$ 59,081 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Miscellaneous Income$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Transfer Contingency/Reserve$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Total Non-Operating Revenue$ 11,965,857 $ 10,809,367 $ 11,281,097 $ 11,291,571 $ 11,330,144 $ 11,343,910 $ 11,382,869 $ 11,422,023 $ 11,461,374 $ 11,500,920 $ 11,540,665
Total Revenue$ 13,391,857 $ 12,255,256 $ 12,747,153 $ 12,778,074 $ 12,837,380 $ 12,872,168 $ 12,932,443 $ 12,993,211 $ 13,054,475 $ 13,116,243 $ 13,178,517
Operating Expense Wages$ 5,840,000 $ 5,974,320 $ 6,111,729 $ 6,492,772 $ 6,396,102 $ 6,543,212 $ 6,693,706 $ 6,847,661 $ 7,005,158 $ 7,166,276 $ 7,331,101 PERS and Other P/R Benefits$ 1,225,000 $ 1,253,175 $ 1,281,998 $ 1,361,926 $ 1,341,648 $ 1,372,506 $ 1,404,074 $ 1,436,367 $ 1,469,404 $ 1,503,200 $ 1,537,774 Health Care$ 1,350,000 $ 1,485,000 $ 1,633,500 $ 1,796,850 $ 1,976,535 $ 2,174,189 $ 2,391,607 $ 2,630,768 $ 2,893,845 $ 3,183,229 $ 3,501,552 Other Benefits$ 104,000 $ 106,080 $ 108,202 $ 110,366 $ 112,573 $ 114,824 $ 117,121 $ 119,463 $ 121,853 $ 124,290 $ 126,775 Services$ 784,000 $ 807,520 $ 956,746 $ 985,448 $ 1,015,011 $ 1,045,462 $ 1,076,826 $ 1,109,130 $ 1,142,404 $ 1,176,676 $ 1,211,977 Supplies Fuel & Oil$ 1,355,000 $ 1,429,525 $ 1,508,149 $ 1,591,097 $ 1,678,607 $ 1,770,931 $ 1,868,332 $ 1,971,090 $ 2,079,500 $ 2,193,873 $ 2,314,536 Parts$ 338,000 $ 348,140 $ 358,584 $ 369,342 $ 380,422 $ 391,835 $ 403,590 $ 415,697 $ 428,168 $ 441,013 $ 454,244 Tires & Other Supplies$ 242,000 $ 250,470 $ 259,236 $ 268,310 $ 277,701 $ 287,420 $ 297,480 $ 307,892 $ 318,668 $ 329,821 $ 341,365 Utilities$ 160,000 $ 165,600 $ 171,396 $ 177,395 $ 183,604 $ 190,030 $ 196,681 $ 203,565 $ 210,689 $ 218,064 $ 225,696 Property & Casualty$ 491,000 $ 505,730 $ 520,902 $ 536,529 $ 552,625 $ 569,204 $ 586,280 $ 603,868 $ 621,984 $ 640,644 $ 659,863 Purchased Transportation$ 730,000 $ 751,900 $ 774,457 $ 797,691 $ 821,621 $ 846,270 $ 871,658 $ 897,808 $ 924,742 $ 952,484 $ 981,059 Miscellaneous$ 340,650 $ 306,650 $ 256,650 $ 263,066 $ 269,643 $ 276,384 $ 283,294 $ 290,376 $ 297,635 $ 305,076 $ 312,703 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Total Operating Expense (excluding Depreciation)$ 12,959,650 $ 13,384,110 $ 13,941,549 $ 14,750,791 $ 15,006,092 $ 15,582,266 $ 16,190,647 $ 16,833,686 $ 17,514,051 $ 18,234,647 $ 18,998,644
Net Income Excluding Depreciation$ 432,207 $ (1,128,854) $ (1,194,396) $ (1,972,717) $ (2,168,712) $ (2,710,098) $ (3,258,204) $ (3,840,476) $ (4,459,575) $ (5,118,404) $ (5,820,127)
Key Items that will guide the future budgets *2013-2023 Federal Operating assistance (5307) based on $2,246,000 less Fed Cap Main (FCM), ADA, FCMPT, 20% of Cap projects. *2016 there are 27 pays in this year. *2015 Services added $125,000 for maintenance and software fees paid to Trapeze and Mentor engineering for additional packages purchased in 2012. *2014 & 2015 cut $50,000 each year in marketing *2017, 2018 = 4 MCI's purchased each year *2022 (6) NF and (4) Gilligs; ***NF are eligible to be rplc in 2021 *2023 (6) NF; ***NF are eligible to be rplc in 2021 *Prior 20% grants includes $92,893 for auction items over $5,000 that have to be spent on another capital project. *Cash Balance is calculated from 2011 CAFR adding all A/R, cash, investments less A/P, etc.
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ATTACHMENT A - SCENARIO A CAPITAL BUDGET RENEWAL TEN YEAR FORECAST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Uses of Capital Funds Fleet Improvement (4) Gillig FR <30' Buses $ 1,500,000 Inspection 2% $ 15,000 (12) New Flyers FR 35' Buses $ 2,400,000 $ 2,400,000 Inspection 2% $ - $ 24,000 $ 24,000 8 Paratransit vans$ 730,800 $ 1,151,010 $ 1,208,561 $ 1,268,989 $ 1,332,438 $ 1,399,060 $ 1,469,013 $ 1,542,463 $ 1,619,587 $ 1,700,566 $ 1,785,594 ( 5/4) Replace 40' commuter buses$ 2,750,000 $ 2,887,500 $ 2,546,775 $ 2,674,114 Inspection$ 27,500 $ 28,875 $ 25,468 $ 26,741 Replacement seats in 2004 MCI's$ 100,000
Facility Improvements Facilitiy Repairs$ - $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Energy Enhancements$ 286,100 Upgrade of Fire Suppression System$ 19,000 Upgrade Bus Washer System$ 250,000 Maintenance Dept upgrades$ 55,000 $ 125,000 Telephone System Upgrade$ 200,000
Passenger Stations and Amenities/Enhancements Passenger information program Ride Guide$ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Passenger benches/shelters$ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000
Office /Computer Trapeze Office Equip, including Computers, Software Upgr$ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 Trapeze Software Upgrade
Other Eastlake Stadium service Color Copier Capital Lease Miscellaneous Equipment$ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Professional Services$ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 Operational Planning Services Strategic Plan Total Capital Expense$ 1,315,900 $ 4,648,510 $ 4,244,936 $ 1,388,989 $ 4,024,681 $ 4,219,915 $ 1,589,013 $ 1,662,463 $ 1,739,587 $ 5,759,566 $ 4,329,594
Capital Funding Federal CMAQ$ 584,640 $ 3,142,808 $ 3,299,948 $ 1,015,191 $ 3,123,745 $ 3,279,932 $ 1,175,210 $ 1,233,971 $ 1,295,669 $ 4,511,653 $ 3,367,675 Federal Formula$ 388,080 $ 576,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 State Total Capital Funding$ 972,720 $ 3,718,808 $ 3,395,948 $ 1,111,191 $ 3,219,745 $ 3,375,932 $ 1,271,210 $ 1,329,971 $ 1,391,669 $ 4,607,653 $ 3,463,675
Total Local Contribution$ 343,180 $ 929,702 $ 848,987 $ 277,798 $ 804,936 $ 843,983 $ 317,803 $ 332,493 $ 347,917 $ 1,151,913 $ 865,919
Projected Capital Expenses (1,315,900) (4,648,510) (4,244,936) (1,388,989) (4,024,681) (4,219,915) (1,589,013) (1,662,463) (1,739,587) (5,759,566) (4,329,594) Projected Capital Reimbursement 972,720 3,718,808 3,395,948 1,111,191 3,219,745 3,375,932 1,271,210 1,329,971 1,391,669 4,607,653 3,463,675 Local Share of Capital Expenses (343,180) (929,702) (848,987) (277,798) (804,936) (843,983) (317,803) (332,493) (347,917) (1,151,913) (865,919)
Net Income excluding Depreciation 432,207 (1,128,854) (1,194,396) (1,972,717) (2,168,712) (2,710,098) (3,258,204) (3,840,476) (4,459,575) (5,118,404) (5,820,127) CARRIED FORWARD
Net Cash Excess/(Deficiency) 89,027 (2,058,556) (2,043,383) (2,250,514) (2,973,648) (3,554,081) (3,576,007) (4,172,968) (4,807,493) (6,270,318) (6,686,045)
Prior Year 20% Federal match obligations $ 1,146,015 Through Dec 31, 2011
Cash Balance - Beginning of Year (2012) 15,202,449 14,145,461 12,086,905 10,043,522 7,793,007 4,819,359 1,265,278 (2,310,728) (6,483,697) (11,291,189) (17,561,507) Cash Balance - End of Year 14,145,461 12,086,905 10,043,522 7,793,007 4,819,359 1,265,278 (2,310,728) (6,483,697) (11,291,189) (17,561,507) (24,247,552)
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ATTACHMENT B – SCENARIO B SERVICE REDUCTIONS AND ¼ of One Percent SALES TAX RENEWAL OPERATING BUDGET CUTS OF $4.83 Million BEGINNING 2017 TEN YEAR FORECAST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Operations & Maintenance Operating Income Fares, Commuter Express$ 655,000 $ 664,170 $ 673,468 $ 682,897 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Fares, Local Fixed Route$ 265,000 $ 268,710 $ 272,472 $ 276,287 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Fares, Dial-a-Ride$ 431,000 $ 437,034 $ 443,152 $ 449,357 $ 455,648 $ 462,027 $ 468,495 $ 475,054 $ 481,705 $ 488,449 $ 495,287 TOTAL FARES$ 1,351,000 $ 1,369,914 $ 1,389,093 $ 1,408,540 $ 455,648 $ 462,027 $ 468,495 $ 475,054 $ 481,705 $ 488,449 $ 495,287 Advertising$ 75,000 $ 75,975 $ 76,963 $ 77,963 $ 30,000 $ 30,390 $ 30,785 $ 31,185 $ 31,591 $ 32,001 $ 32,417 Total Operating Revenue $ 1,426,000 $ 1,445,889 $ 1,466,055 $ 1,486,503 $ 485,648 $ 492,417 $ 499,280 $ 506,239 $ 513,295 $ 520,450 $ 527,704
Non Operating Revenues TRADITIONAL SUBSIDIES Sales Tax Revenue$ 7,600,000 $ 7,638,000 $ 7,676,190 $ 7,714,571 $ 7,753,144 $ 7,791,910 $ 7,830,869 $ 7,870,023 $ 7,909,374 $ 7,948,920 $ 7,988,665 Federal Capitalized Maintenance$ 1,400,000 $ 1,428,000 $ 1,556,560 $ 1,587,691 $ 1,133,612 $ 1,156,284 $ 1,179,409 $ 1,202,998 $ 1,227,058 $ 1,251,599 $ 1,276,631 State E & D$ 668,798 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 311,000 $ 311,000 $ 311,000 $ 311,000 $ 311,000 $ 311,000 $ 311,000 State Capitalized Maintenance$ 239,074 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 TOTAL TRADITIONAL SUBSIDIES$ 9,907,872 $ 9,788,000 $ 9,954,750 $ 10,024,262 $ 9,247,755 $ 9,309,193 $ 9,371,278 $ 9,434,021 $ 9,497,431 $ 9,561,519 $ 9,626,296 NEW SUBSIDIES New Freedom Dialysis$ 75,000 $ 26,344 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - New Freedom Funds - Travel$ 15,000 $ 20,672 $ 2,769 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - New Freedom Funds - Admin$ 4,500 $ 2,351 $ 138 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Medicaid NET$ 375,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 Medicaid IO Waivers$ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 Society IO Waivers$ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 Formula Funds ADA - Federal$ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 112,300 $ 112,300 $ 112,300 $ 112,300 $ 112,300 $ 112,300 $ 112,300 Federal Operating Assistance$ 33,320 $ (186,600) $ 160,760 $ 125,467 $ 687,602 $ 660,600 $ 633,058 $ 604,965 $ 576,311 $ 547,083 $ 517,270 One Time Fuel initative$ 771,484 $ - $ - $ - Federal Cap Main - Purch Trans$ 200,000 $ 204,000 $ 208,080 $ 212,242 $ 216,486 $ 220,816 $ 225,232 $ 229,737 $ 234,332 $ 239,019 $ 243,799 TOTAL NEW SUBSIDIES$ 1,998,904 $ 971,367 $ 1,276,347 $ 1,242,309 $ 1,696,388 $ 1,673,716 $ 1,650,591 $ 1,627,002 $ 1,602,942 $ 1,578,401 $ 1,553,369
Interest Income$ 59,081 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 Miscellaneous Income$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Transfer Contingency/Reserve$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Total Non-Operating Revenue$ 11,965,857 $ 10,809,367 $ 11,281,097 $ 11,316,571 $ 10,994,144 $ 11,032,910 $ 11,071,869 $ 11,111,023 $ 11,150,374 $ 11,164,920 $ 11,204,665
Total Revenue$ 13,391,857 $ 12,255,256 $ 12,747,153 $ 12,803,074 $ 11,479,791 $ 11,525,326 $ 11,571,149 $ 11,617,263 $ 11,663,669 $ 11,685,370 $ 11,732,369
Operating Expense Wages$ 5,840,000 $ 5,974,320 $ 6,111,729 $ 6,492,772 $ 4,334,051 $ 4,433,735 $ 4,535,710 $ 4,640,032 $ 4,746,753 $ 4,855,928 $ 4,967,614 PERS and Other P/R Benefits$ 1,225,000 $ 1,253,175 $ 1,281,998 $ 1,361,926 $ 921,251 $ 942,439 $ 964,116 $ 986,290 $ 1,008,975 $ 1,032,181 $ 1,055,921 Health Care$ 1,350,000 $ 1,485,000 $ 1,633,500 $ 1,796,850 $ 1,358,575 $ 1,494,432 $ 1,643,875 $ 1,808,263 $ 1,989,089 $ 2,187,998 $ 2,406,798 Other Benefits$ 104,000 $ 106,080 $ 108,202 $ 110,366 $ 78,801 $ 80,377 $ 81,985 $ 83,624 $ 85,297 $ 87,003 $ 88,743 Services$ 784,000 $ 807,520 $ 956,746 $ 985,448 $ 692,508 $ 713,283 $ 734,682 $ 756,722 $ 779,424 $ 802,807 $ 826,891 Supplies Fuel & Oil$ 1,355,000 $ 1,429,525 $ 1,508,149 $ 1,591,097 $ 1,150,025 $ 1,213,277 $ 1,280,007 $ 1,350,407 $ 1,424,680 $ 1,503,037 $ 1,585,704 Parts$ 338,000 $ 348,140 $ 358,584 $ 369,342 $ 256,295 $ 263,984 $ 271,904 $ 280,061 $ 288,463 $ 297,117 $ 306,030 Tires & Other Supplies$ 242,000 $ 250,470 $ 259,236 $ 268,310 $ 184,390 $ 190,844 $ 197,524 $ 204,437 $ 211,592 $ 218,998 $ 226,663 Utilities$ 160,000 $ 165,600 $ 171,396 $ 177,395 $ 128,523 $ 133,021 $ 137,677 $ 142,495 $ 147,483 $ 152,645 $ 157,987 Property & Casualty$ 491,000 $ 505,730 $ 520,902 $ 536,529 $ 381,837 $ 393,292 $ 405,091 $ 417,244 $ 429,761 $ 442,654 $ 455,934 Purchased Transportation$ 730,000 $ 751,900 $ 774,457 $ 797,691 $ 560,135 $ 576,939 $ 594,247 $ 612,075 $ 630,437 $ 649,350 $ 668,830 Miscellaneous$ 340,650 $ 306,650 $ 256,650 $ 263,066 $ 188,750 $ 193,469 $ 198,306 $ 203,263 $ 208,345 $ 213,553 $ 218,892 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Total Operating Expense (excluding Depreciation)$ 12,959,650 $ 13,384,110 $ 13,941,549 $ 14,750,791 $ 10,235,142 $ 10,629,092 $ 11,045,122 $ 11,484,913 $ 11,950,297 $ 12,443,270 $ 12,966,007
Net Income Excluding Depreciation$ 432,207 $ (1,128,854) $ (1,194,396) $ (1,947,717) $ 1,244,650 $ 896,234 $ 526,027 $ 132,349 $ (286,628) $ (757,899) $ (1,233,638)
Key Items that will guide the future budgets $4.83 million is cut in expense line items plus projected revenue *2013-2023 Federal Operating assistance (5307) based on $2,246,000 less Fed Cap Main (FCM), ADA, FCMPT, 20% of Cap projects. *2016 there are 27 pays in this year. *2015 Services added $125,000 for maintenance and software fees paid to Trapeze and Mentor engineering for additional packages purchased in 2012. *2014 & 2015 cut $50,000 each year in marketing *2017, 2018 = 4 MCI's purchased each year *2022 (6) NF and (4) Gilligs; ***NF are eligible to be rplc in 2021 *2023 (6) NF; ***NF are eligible to be rplc in 2021 *Prior 20% grants includes $92,893 for auction items over $5,000 that have to be spent on another capital project. *Cash Balance is calculated from 2011 CAFR adding all A/R, cash, investments less A/P, etc.
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ATTACHMENT B – SCENARIO B CAPITAL BUDGET CUTS OF $4.83 Million BEGINNING 2017 TEN YEAR FORECAST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Uses of Capital Funds Fleet Improvement (4) Gillig FR <30' Buses Inspection 2% (12) New Flyers FR 35' Buses Inspection 2% $ - 8 Paratransit vans$ 730,800 $ 1,151,010 $ 1,208,561 $ 1,268,989 $ 1,332,438 $ 1,399,060 $ 1,469,013 $ 1,542,463 $ 1,619,587 $ 1,700,566 $ 1,785,594 ( 5/4) Replace 40' commuter buses$ 2,750,000 $ 2,887,500 Inspection$ 27,500 $ 28,875 Replacement seats in 2004 MCI's$ 100,000
Facility Improvements Facilitiy Repairs$ - $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Energy Enhancements$ 286,100 Upgrade of Fire Suppression System$ 19,000 Upgrade Bus Washer System$ 250,000 Maintenance Dept upgrades$ 55,000 $ 125,000 Telephone System Upgrade$ 200,000
Passenger Stations and Amenities/Enhancements Passenger information program Ride Guide$ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Passenger benches/shelters$ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000
Office /Computer Trapeze Office Equip, including Computers, Software Upgr$ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 Trapeze Software Upgrade
Other Eastlake Stadium service Color Copier Capital Lease Miscellaneous Equipment$ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Professional Services$ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 Operational Planning Services Strategic Plan Total Capital Expense$ 1,315,900 $ 4,648,510 $ 4,244,936 $ 1,388,989 $ 1,452,438 $ 1,519,060 $ 1,589,013 $ 1,662,463 $ 1,739,587 $ 1,820,566 $ 1,905,594
Capital Funding Federal CMAQ$ 584,640 $ 3,142,808 $ 3,299,948 $ 1,015,191 $ 1,065,950 $ 1,119,248 $ 1,175,210 $ 1,233,971 $ 1,295,669 $ 1,360,453 $ 1,428,475 Federal Formula$ 388,080 $ 576,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 State Total Capital Funding$ 972,720 $ 3,718,808 $ 3,395,948 $ 1,111,191 $ 1,161,950 $ 1,215,248 $ 1,271,210 $ 1,329,971 $ 1,391,669 $ 1,456,453 $ 1,524,475
Total Local Contribution$ 343,180 $ 929,702 $ 848,987 $ 277,798 $ 290,488 $ 303,812 $ 317,803 $ 332,493 $ 347,917 $ 364,113 $ 381,119
Projected Capital Expenses (1,315,900) (4,648,510) (4,244,936) (1,388,989) (1,452,438) (1,519,060) (1,589,013) (1,662,463) (1,739,587) (1,820,566) (1,905,594) Projected Capital Reimbursement 972,720 3,718,808 3,395,948 1,111,191 1,161,950 1,215,248 1,271,210 1,329,971 1,391,669 1,456,453 1,524,475 Local Share of Capital Expenses (343,180) (929,702) (848,987) (277,798) (290,488) (303,812) (317,803) (332,493) (347,917) (364,113) (381,119)
Net Income excluding Depreciation 432,207 (1,128,854) (1,194,396) (1,947,717) 1,244,649 896,233 526,026 132,349 (286,629) (757,900) (1,233,639) CARRIED FORWARD
Net Cash Excess/(Deficiency) 89,027 (2,058,556) (2,043,383) (2,225,514) 954,162 592,421 208,224 (200,144) (634,546) (1,122,013) (1,614,757)
Prior Year 20% Federal match obligations $ 1,146,015 Through Dec 31, 2011
Cash Balance - Beginning of Year (2012) 15,202,449 14,145,461 12,086,905 10,043,522 7,818,007 8,772,169 9,364,590 9,572,814 9,372,670 8,738,125 7,616,111
Cash Balance - End of Year 14,145,461 12,086,905 10,043,522 7,818,007 8,772,169 9,364,590 9,572,814 9,372,670 8,738,125 7,616,111 6,001,354
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ATTACHMENT C – SCENARIO C SERVICE INCREASES AND ¼ of One Percent SALES TAX AND ¼ of One Percent ADDITIONAL SALES TAX OPERATING BUDGET 2013_INCREASE_$3 MILLION IN SVCS TEN YEAR FORECAST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Operations & Maintenance Operating Income Fares, Commuter Express$ 655,000 $ 715,311 $ 781,176 $ 853,105 $ 865,048 $ 877,159 $ 889,439 $ 901,891 $ 914,518 $ 927,321 $ 940,303 Fares, Local Fixed Route$ 265,000 $ 289,401 $ 316,048 $ 345,149 $ 349,981 $ 354,881 $ 359,849 $ 364,887 $ 369,996 $ 375,176 $ 380,428 Fares, Dial-a-Ride$ 431,000 $ 470,686 $ 514,025 $ 561,356 $ 569,215 $ 577,184 $ 585,264 $ 593,458 $ 601,767 $ 610,191 $ 618,734 TOTAL FARES$ 1,351,000 $ 1,475,397 $ 1,611,249 $ 1,759,610 $ 1,784,244 $ 1,809,224 $ 1,834,553 $ 1,860,236 $ 1,886,280 $ 1,912,688 $ 1,939,465 Advertising$ 75,000 $ 75,975 $ 76,963 $ 77,963 $ 78,977 $ 80,003 $ 81,043 $ 82,097 $ 83,164 $ 84,245 $ 85,341 Total Operating Revenue $ 1,426,000 $ 1,551,372 $ 1,688,212 $ 1,837,573 $ 1,863,221 $ 1,889,227 $ 1,915,596 $ 1,942,333 $ 1,969,444 $ 1,996,933 $ 2,024,806
Non Operating Revenues TRADITIONAL SUBSIDIES Sales Tax Revenue$ 7,600,000 $ 9,547,500 $ 15,352,380 $ 15,429,142 $ 15,506,288 $ 15,583,819 $ 15,661,738 $ 15,740,047 $ 15,818,747 $ 15,897,841 $ 15,977,330 Federal Capitalized Maintenance$ 1,400,000 $ 1,428,000 $ 1,556,560 $ 1,587,691 $ 1,619,445 $ 1,651,834 $ 1,684,871 $ 1,718,568 $ 1,752,939 $ 1,787,998 $ 1,823,758 State E & D$ 668,798 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 $ 622,000 State Capitalized Maintenance$ 239,074 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 TOTAL TRADITIONAL SUBSIDIES$ 9,907,872 $ 11,697,500 $ 17,630,940 $ 17,738,833 $ 17,847,733 $ 17,957,653 $ 18,068,609 $ 18,180,615 $ 18,293,686 $ 18,407,839 $ 18,523,088 NEW SUBSIDIES New Freedom Dialysis$ 75,000 $ 26,344 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - New Freedom Funds - Travel$ 15,000 $ 20,672 $ 2,769 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - New Freedom Funds - Admin$ 4,500 $ 2,351 $ 138 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Medicaid NET$ 375,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 $ 380,000 Medicaid IO Waivers$ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 $ 285,000 Society IO Waivers$ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 $ 15,000 Formula Funds ADA - Federal$ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 $ 224,600 Federal Operating Assistance$ 33,320 $ (186,600) $ 160,760 $ 125,467 $ 89,469 $ 52,750 $ 15,297 $ (22,905) $ (61,871) $ (101,617) $ (142,157) One Time Fuel initative$ 771,484 $ - $ - $ - Federal Cap Main - Purch Trans$ 200,000 $ 204,000 $ 208,080 $ 212,242 $ 216,486 $ 220,816 $ 225,232 $ 229,737 $ 234,332 $ 239,019 $ 243,799 TOTAL NEW SUBSIDIES$ 1,998,904 $ 971,367 $ 1,276,347 $ 1,242,309 $ 1,210,555 $ 1,178,166 $ 1,145,129 $ 1,111,432 $ 1,077,061 $ 1,042,002 $ 1,006,242
Interest Income$ 59,081 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 Miscellaneous Income$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Transfer Contingency/Reserve$ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - Total Non-Operating Revenue$ 11,965,857 $ 12,718,867 $ 18,957,287 $ 19,031,142 $ 19,108,288 $ 19,185,819 $ 19,263,738 $ 19,342,047 $ 19,420,747 $ 19,499,841 $ 19,579,330
Total Revenue$ 13,391,857 $ 14,270,239 $ 20,645,499 $ 20,868,715 $ 20,971,508 $ 21,075,046 $ 21,179,334 $ 21,284,380 $ 21,390,191 $ 21,496,774 $ 21,604,136
Operating Expense Wages$ 5,840,000 $ 6,667,341 $ 7,611,890 $ 8,086,462 $ 8,272,451 $ 8,462,717 $ 8,657,360 $ 8,856,479 $ 9,060,178 $ 9,268,562 $ 9,481,739 PERS and Other P/R Benefits$ 1,225,000 $ 1,398,543 $ 1,596,672 $ 1,696,218 $ 1,670,964 $ 1,709,396 $ 1,748,712 $ 1,788,932 $ 1,830,078 $ 1,872,170 $ 1,915,229 Health Care$ 1,350,000 $ 1,657,260 $ 2,034,452 $ 2,237,898 $ 2,461,687 $ 2,707,856 $ 2,978,642 $ 3,276,506 $ 3,604,156 $ 3,964,572 $ 4,361,029 Other Benefits$ 104,000 $ 118,385 $ 134,760 $ 137,456 $ 140,205 $ 143,009 $ 145,869 $ 148,786 $ 151,762 $ 154,797 $ 157,893 Services$ 784,000 $ 901,192 $ 1,175,403 $ 1,210,665 $ 1,246,985 $ 1,284,394 $ 1,322,926 $ 1,362,614 $ 1,403,492 $ 1,445,597 $ 1,488,965 Supplies Fuel & Oil$ 1,355,000 $ 1,595,350 $ 1,878,333 $ 1,981,641 $ 2,090,632 $ 2,205,616 $ 2,326,925 $ 2,454,906 $ 2,589,926 $ 2,732,372 $ 2,882,652 Parts$ 338,000 $ 388,524 $ 446,601 $ 459,999 $ 473,799 $ 488,013 $ 502,653 $ 517,733 $ 533,265 $ 549,263 $ 565,741 Tires & Other Supplies$ 242,000 $ 279,525 $ 322,868 $ 334,168 $ 345,864 $ 357,969 $ 370,498 $ 383,465 $ 396,887 $ 410,778 $ 425,155 Utilities$ 160,000 $ 184,810 $ 213,466 $ 220,937 $ 228,670 $ 236,674 $ 244,957 $ 253,531 $ 262,404 $ 271,589 $ 281,094 Property & Casualty$ 491,000 $ 564,395 $ 648,760 $ 668,223 $ 688,270 $ 708,918 $ 730,186 $ 752,091 $ 774,654 $ 797,893 $ 821,830 Purchased Transportation$ 730,000 $ 839,120 $ 964,552 $ 993,489 $ 1,023,293 $ 1,053,992 $ 1,085,612 $ 1,118,180 $ 1,151,726 $ 1,186,277 $ 1,221,866 Miscellaneous$ 340,650 $ 342,221 $ 326,119 $ 334,272 $ 342,629 $ 351,195 $ 359,974 $ 368,974 $ 378,198 $ 387,653 $ 397,344 $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ - $ -
Total Operating Expense (excluding Depreciation)$ 12,959,650 $ 14,936,667 $ 17,353,877 $ 18,361,428 $ 18,985,448 $ 19,709,749 $ 20,474,314 $ 21,282,197 $ 22,136,726 $ 23,041,523 $ 24,000,538
Net Income Excluding Depreciation$ 432,207 $ (666,428) $ 3,291,622 $ 2,507,287 $ 1,986,061 $ 1,365,297 $ 705,020 $ 2,183 $ (746,535) $ (1,544,749) $ (2,396,402)
Key Items that will guide the future budgets $3 million is added to expense line items plus projected revenue *2013-2023 Federal Operating assistance (5307) based on $2,246,000 less Fed Cap Main (FCM), ADA, FCMPT, 20% of Cap projects. *2016 there are 27 pays in this year. *2015 Services added $125,000 for maintenance and software fees paid to Trapeze and Mentor engineering for additional packages purchased in 2012. *2014 & 2015 cut $50,000 each year in marketing *2017, 2018 = 4 MCI's purchased each year *2022 (6) NF and (4) Gilligs; ***NF are eligible to be rplc in 2021 *2023 (6) NF; ***NF are eligible to be rplc in 2021 *Prior 20% grants includes $92,893 for auction items over $5,000 that have to be spent on another capital project. *Cash Balance is calculated from 2011 CAFR adding all A/R, cash, investments less A/P, etc.
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ATTACHMENT C – SCENARIO C CAPITAL BUDGET 2013_INCREASE_$3 MILLION IN SVCS TEN YEAR FORECAST 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Uses of Capital Funds Fleet Improvement (4) Gillig FR <30' Buses $ 1,500,000 Inspection 2% $ 15,000 (12) New Flyers FR 35' Buses $ 2,400,000 $ 2,400,000 Inspection 2% $ - $ 24,000 $ 24,000 (8) 2012 & 2013; 2014 + (12) Paratransit vans$ 730,800 $ 1,151,010 $ 1,208,561 $ 1,268,989 $ 1,332,438 $ 1,399,060 $ 1,469,013 $ 1,542,463 $ 1,619,587 $ 1,700,566 $ 1,785,594 ( 5/4) Replace 40' commuter buses$ 2,750,000 $ 2,887,500 $ 2,546,775 $ 2,674,114 Inspection$ 27,500 $ 28,875 $ 25,468 $ 26,741 Replacement seats in 2004 MCI's$ 100,000
Facility Improvements Facilitiy Repairs$ - $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Energy Enhancements$ 286,100 Upgrade of Fire Suppression System$ 19,000 Upgrade Bus Washer System$ 250,000 Maintenance Dept upgrades$ 55,000 $ 125,000 Telephone System Upgrade$ 200,000
Passenger Stations and Amenities/Enhancements Passenger information program Ride Guide$ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Passenger benches/shelters$ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000
Office /Computer Trapeze Office Equip, including Computers, Software Upgr$ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 $ 10,000 Trapeze Software Upgrade
Other Eastlake Stadium service Color Copier Capital Lease Miscellaneous Equipment$ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 $ 20,000 Professional Services$ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 $ 25,000 Operational Planning Services Strategic Plan Total Capital Expense$ 1,315,900 $ 4,648,510 $ 4,244,936 $ 1,388,989 $ 4,024,681 $ 4,219,915 $ 1,589,013 $ 1,662,463 $ 1,739,587 $ 5,759,566 $ 4,329,594
Capital Funding Federal CMAQ$ 584,640 $ 3,142,808 $ 3,299,948 $ 1,015,191 $ 3,123,745 $ 3,279,932 $ 1,175,210 $ 1,233,971 $ 1,295,669 $ 4,511,653 $ 3,367,675 Federal Formula$ 388,080 $ 576,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 $ 96,000 State Total Capital Funding$ 972,720 $ 3,718,808 $ 3,395,948 $ 1,111,191 $ 3,219,745 $ 3,375,932 $ 1,271,210 $ 1,329,971 $ 1,391,669 $ 4,607,653 $ 3,463,675
Total Local Contribution$ 343,180 $ 929,702 $ 848,987 $ 277,798 $ 804,936 $ 843,983 $ 317,803 $ 332,493 $ 347,917 $ 1,151,913 $ 865,919
Projected Capital Expenses (1,315,900) (4,648,510) (4,244,936) (1,388,989) (4,024,681) (4,219,915) (1,589,013) (1,662,463) (1,739,587) (5,759,566) (4,329,594) Projected Capital Reimbursement 972,720 3,718,808 3,395,948 1,111,191 3,219,745 3,375,932 1,271,210 1,329,971 1,391,669 4,607,653 3,463,675 Local Share of Capital Expenses (343,180) (929,702) (848,987) (277,798) (804,936) (843,983) (317,803) (332,493) (347,917) (1,151,913) (865,919)
Net Income excluding Depreciation 432,207 (666,428) 3,291,622 2,507,287 1,986,061 1,365,297 705,020 2,183 (746,535) (1,544,749) (2,396,402) CARRIED FORWARD
Net Cash Excess/(Deficiency) 89,027 (1,596,130) 2,442,635 2,229,489 1,181,125 521,314 387,218 (330,310) (1,094,452) (2,696,662) (3,262,321)
Prior Year 20% Federal match obligations $ 1,146,015 Through Dec 31, 2011
Cash Balance - Beginning of Year (2012) 15,202,449 14,145,461 12,549,331 14,991,967 17,221,456 18,402,580 18,923,895 19,311,113 18,980,803 17,886,351 15,189,689
Cash Balance - End of Year 14,145,461 12,549,331 14,991,967 17,221,456 18,402,580 18,923,895 19,311,113 18,980,803 17,886,351 15,189,689 11,927,367
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Chapter 8: Recommendations
This chapter documents the recommendations for the Laketran Fixed Route Bus and Dial-a-Ride systems that were prepared for this operations analysis study. The recommendations cover three distinct scenarios: Service improvements recommended regardless of changes to Laketran revenues or costs. Reductions in service to accommodate any deterioration in Laketran’s Financial Capacity outlined in Chapter 3: Financial Recovery Plan. Improvements to meet growing demand described in Chapter 5: Service Area Micro-Analysis and Chapter 6: Access to Opportunity. Therefore, this chapter has four sections. The first details the baseline analysis, which is needed to understand how the system operates today and is required as the base upon which additional route changes (and costs) can be measured. Once the baseline is established, the next three sections in the chapter document the scenarios mentioned above. The chapter ends with the last scenario and does not include an ultimate recommendation. That is because this chapter was written as a “what if” plan if certain changes to Laketran revenues occur in the future. Service changes within each individual scenario are recommended should that funding scenario occur.
Baseline Conditions As noted in the introduction, establishing baseline conditions is necessary to establish the foundation upon which all cost changes to the system are measured. There are two tasks which need to be conducted to establish baseline conditions. The first is to develop operating and maintenance (O&M) costs. This task is needed to determine the cost per revenue hour of Laketran’s existing service and the revenue hours that Laketran currently operates. These are then used to determine the overall cost of the Laketran system.
Development of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Costs The goal of the Operations and Maintenance cost model is to determine the cost per revenue hour of the various types of service operated by Laketran. This would allow the costs of the recommended service cuts or improvements in this chapter to be calculated. Laketran operates four services: Local Fixed Route Bus (routes that operate in Lake County) Commuter Express (routes that operate to downtown Cleveland) Dial-a-Ride using Full Time Drivers Dial-a-Ride using Part Time Drivers Dial-a-Ride shows up twice as there are substantial cost differences when using full time or part time drivers due to the reduced benefits for part time drivers. This is important when determining the costs involved with reduced or expanded revenue scenarios later in this chapter. The calculated O&M costs for Laketran’s local fixed route, commuter express, and Dial-a-Ride system is depicted in Figure 8.1 The development of the O&M cost model is discussed further in Appendix E.
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Table 8.1: O&M Cost Model Summary
Annual Cost per Revenue Hour (all costs) D-A-R D-A-R Local Express Full Time Part Time Fixed Cost per Rev Hr $4.42 $6.66 $5.79 $5.79 Variable Cost per Rev Hr $59.77 $106.94 $68.70 $57.65 Admin Cost per Rev Hr $12.41 $12.41 $20.85 $20.85 Total Cost per Rev Hr $76.59 $126.01 $95.34 $84.30 Variable + Fixed Cost per Rev Hr $64.18 $113.60 $74.49 $63.45
Laketran Route Model Once the cost per revenue hour is identified, the second task is to determine the number of revenue hours operated by Laketran’s local bus and commuter express services. The number of revenue hours is then multiplied by the cost per revenue hour to determine the total costs of the services. Daily revenue hours are calculated by multiplying the number of daily trips operated by each route by the number of revenue hours per trip. Annual revenue hours are calculated by multiplying the daily revenue hours by the number of days of operation. Table 8.2 shows the route model for the existing Laketran local bus and commuter express services. The table indicates that Laketran operated 32,030 revenue hours and spends $2,453,000 for local fixed route bus service. The table also indicates 10,530 revenue hours and a cost of $1,326,000 for commuter express service. The Laketran route model includes local and express fixed route service, but not demand response service due to the day to day variability in demand response and the demand-driven nature of the service, which makes it difficult to accurately model expected revenue hours.
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Table 8.2: Existing Laketran Route Model
Cost per revenue hour (fixed‐route): $76.59 Cost per revenue hour (express): $126.01
Local Bus Estimated Daily Annual Round‐Trip Length Cycle Time Required Begin Days of Route Name Speed (miles Frequency End Time Revenue Revenue Cost Notes (miles) (min) Vehicles Time Operation per hour) Hours Hours 1 Painesville/Mentor/Lakeland College 16.29 28.5 115 60 2 5:48 19:55 28.2 245 6,917 $529,786 2 Mentor‐Willoughby/Wickliffe‐Euclid 21.24 36.1 112 60 2 6:07 20:07 28.0 245 6,860 $525,407 3Great Lakes Mall/Lakeland College/Mentor‐ 20.47 34.8 112 60 2 6:07 20:07 28.0 245 6,860 $525,407 4 Madison/Painesville 26.73 40.1 100 3/4* 2 6:55 18:30 4.7 245 1,152 $88,193 5A/5B Circulator 19.74 12.5 48 60 1 6:05 19:53 13.8 245 3,381 $258,951 Interlined with 5B 6 Willoughby Hills/Willowick/Mentor via Vine 14.89 27.3 120 60 2 6:05 20:05 28.0 245 6,860 $525,407 * denotes number of outbound/inbound trips 32,030 $2,453,152
Commuter Express Estimated Frequency Daily Annual Round‐Trip Length Cycle Time Required Begin Days of Route Name Speed (miles (outbound/inb End Time Revenue Revenue Cost Notes (miles) (min) Vehicles Time Operation per hour) ound) Hours Hours 10 Mentor Market Street Park‐and‐Ride 26 58.7 135 8/7 N/A 6:15 18:30 14.2 245 3,469 $437,154 11 Madison‐Lakeland Park‐and‐Ride 36 83.4 140 2/2 N/A 6:25 18:35 4.8 245 1,164 $146,644 12 Willowick & Wilckliffe Park‐and‐Ride 33 61.3 111 8/6 N/A 5:35 19:15 14.5 245 3,553 $447,651 13 Wickliffe‐Willoughby Hills Park‐and‐Ride 21 58 165 1/1 N/A 6:15 18:30 3.4 245 835 $105,275 14 Eastlake Park‐and‐Ride 24 61 150 3/3 N/A 5:35 18:15 6.2 245 1,509 $190,174 10,530 $1,326,898
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Validation The validation of the O&M cost estimates, shown in Table 8.3, compares the calculated revenue hours and costs from the route model against what the agency actually operated for the fiscal year (FY) of 2012. Note that Table 8.3 includes both local bus and commuter express as a single entry. As the table shows, the costs and revenue hours validate within 3-5 percent of the actual for both revenue hours and cost. Therefore, the O&M model performs very well when compared to the actual revenue hours and expenditures experienced by Laketran. Table 8.3: Validation for Existing Laketran Model
Revenue Hours Total Cost Calculated by model 42,560 $3,780,050 Actual 43,954 $3,973,804 Percent difference 3.3% 5.1%
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Reinvestment for Cost Effectiveness Scenario Once the baseline was established, an analysis was undertaken to determine improvements to the system independent of funding. To put it another way, this section details changes that should take place regardless of changes to Laketran’s revenues.
Local Bus Three changes were proposed for the local bus network and are detailed below.
Route 2 Western Terminal at Shops of Willoughby Hills Currently Route 2 ends at the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride. The route is recommended to change so that it terminates instead at the Shops of Willoughby Hills. For Route 2 trips traveling west on Euclid Avenue the alignment is recommended as the following: turn north on Worden Ave and then west on Lakeland Boulevard to serve the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride. Then, use Lakeland Boulevard west and Lloyd Road south to travel back to Euclid Avenue. At Richmond Road (E. 260 Street), Route 2 is to turn south and travel to Chardon Road. The route is then to turn east on Chardon Road, ending at the Shops of Willoughby Hills Park-n-Ride. The eastbound Route 2 is to use the same alignment in reverse. Figure 8.1 depicts the current and recommended alignment. This change is not expected to change the overall operating time for Route 2 and therefore is considered cost neutral. The proposed timetable for revised Route 2 is shown in Table 8.4, along with the expected connections to eastbound and westbound Routes 3 and 6, where appropriate. Most of the connections work well with the exception of the connection of westbound Route 2 to eastbound Route 6 (41 minutes) and eastbound Route 2 to eastbound Route 3 (34 minutes). In each case, the connection from Route 2 to a route going to Shoregate Shopping Center will be slower than it currently is. However, the new alignment also provides a more convenient connection between westbound Route 2 to eastbound Route 3, which will only be a 15-minute wait, while eastbound Route 2 to eastbound Route 6 is timed for a connection at the Shops of Willoughby Hills. As a result, this alignment change is generally positive for the rider.
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Figure 8.1: Route 2 Proposed Alignment
Table 8.4: Timetable for Revised Route 2
WB #2 WB #6 EB #6 EB #3 Euclid and Worden 0:42 0:44 0:23 Wickliffe PnR 0:45 0:59 Euclid and Lloyd 0:47 Euclid and E 267th 0:50 Euclid and E 260th 0:53 Shops of Willoughby 0:57 EB #2 WB #6 EB #6 EB #3 Shops of Willoughby 0:13 0:13 Euclid and E 260th 0:17 Euclid and E 267th 0:20 Euclid and Lloyd 0:23 Wickliffe P&R 0:25 0:59 Euclid and Worden 0:28 0:44
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Routes 3A and 3B Pattern Route 3 is recommended to change so portions of the route follow an A and B pattern covering different alignments. A ridership and demographic analysis of this route showed that ridership was marginal on SR-306 (Reynolds Road). In addition, demographic analysis shows that SR-615 (Center Street) has some transit ridership potential. There is a desire by Laketran staff to continue to serve the existing portion of the alignment along SR-306 but to also find a way to serve SR-615. The recommendation is to operate an A pattern that is identical to the current Route 3, but also operate a B pattern that uses Lakeshore Boulevard, Center Street, and Tyler Boulevard instead of operating on SR-306 (Reynolds Road). Figure 8.2 depicts both patterns. The A and B patterns are recommended to alternate so that service is provided on SR-306 (Reynolds Road) or SR-615 (Center Street) every two hours. This is due to both alignments appearing to have approximately the same volume of transit ridership demand. However, Laketran may ultimately select one of the two trip patterns for all trips if greater demand is realized on either the A or B pattern. Figure 8.2: Routes 3A and 3B Proposed Alignment
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Route 5B Alignment Change Route 5B is recommended to change its alignment in order to better connect the Painesville neighborhoods to West Jackson Street and the Giant Eagle on Mentor Ave (US 2) and OH-44. The existing and proposed alignments are shown in Figure 8.3. The new Route 5B alignment is a one-way loop similar to the existing route, and would operate on the following alignment: starting at the administration building in downtown Painesville, Route 5B travels east on Main Street, north on State Street, then west on Jackson Street to Fern Drive (just west of OH-44). At Fern Drive, the route turns south to Mentor Avenue, then west on Mentor Avenue to the entrance of the Giant Eagle supermarket parking lot. After serving the supermarket, the route returns to Mentor Avenue, traveling east to Chestnut Street. At Chestnut Street, the route turns south, then east on Cedarbrook Street, then north on Liberty Street, east on Erie Street, and south on St. Clair to return to the administration building in downtown Painesville. At that point, the route will interline into Route 5A for the trip to Fairport Harbor. The new alignment is 2.4 miles longer than the current Route 5B, but is expected to operate in the current 20-25 minute window due to higher speeds on some of the new alignment segments. This would allow the route approximately 5-10 minutes of layover/recovery time and would also fit the route within the 30 minute window in order to continue to allow it to interline with route 5A.
Figure 8.3: Route 5B Proposed Alignment
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Lakeland Community College and the Great Lakes Mall Alignments Analysis was conducted of the operations and connections of Routes 1, 2, 3, and 6 that occur at Lakeland Community College and Great Lakes Mall. Current connections for these routes to both activity centers are shown in Table 8.5. Table 8.5: Connections to Lakeland Community College and the Great Lakes Mall
#1 #2 #3 #6 Great Lakes Mall 0:35 0:59 0:59 n/a Lakeland CC 0:48 / 0:05 0:07 0:07 0:05 Great Lakes Mall 0:17 n/a n/a 0:14
Routes 2 and 3 travel to the Great Lakes Mall first, then Lakeland Community College, then back west. Route 1 travels to the Great Lakes Mall twice, once on its westbound trip and once more on its eastbound trip, with a stop at Lakeland in between. Route 6 essentially matches the latter part of Route 1, going first to Lakeland Community College and then to the Great Lakes Mall before heading back west. Ideally, all routes would meet at a centrally located transit center, which would allow for a single transfer location between all routes. A central transit center would make each route easier to understand by removing the need for each route to circulate to both activity centers. However, a centrally located transit center appears to be infeasible at this time. Land for a transit center is either not available at Lakeland Community College or prohibitively expensive elsewhere in the area. Therefore, a central transit center cannot be executed and the alignments were left “as is” in the cost neutral scenario.
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Commuter Express Laketran’s commuter express network works well, with good ridership levels and a robust farebox recovery percentage, as noted in Chapter 4. The one identified issue with the routes is that Routes 12 and 13 are not direct and operate through the suburbs in the western portion of Lake County. These patterns were inherited from the Greater Cleveland RTA (and previously the City of Euclid) when the commuter routes operated by RTA were absorbed by Laketran in the 1980s. While these meandering routes are beneficial for the few riders originating at their homes, it is an inconvenience to other potential riders in Lake County. The vast majority of Lake County residents own cars and therefore anticipate a commuter express service that provides a direct, fast trip that can compete with travel by automobile. The deviations of Routes 12 and 13 make these routes less attractive to a potential Park-n-Ride market in the county, as shown in Figure 8.4. Therefore, the cost neutral recommendation is to simplify the Commuter Express network by originating all trips from Park-n-Ride locations. Table 8.6 summarizes the existing routes and the recommended changes for each route. In addition, routes are summarized below. Note that because this is a cost neutral change, the same number of commuter express trips will be operated with the recommended changes. Only the beginning points of the trips change.
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Figure 8.4: Commuter Express Proposed Alignments
Table 8.6: Commuter Express Cost Neutral Recommendation
Existing Existing Proposed Proposed Route Areas Served Proposed Service Area WB Trips EB Trips WB Trips EB Trips Painesville, Mentor #10 Painesville, Mentor PnRs 8 7 7 7 PnRs Madison, Lakeland CC Madison, Lakeland CC #11 2 2 2 2 PnRs PnRs #12 Wickliffe PnR, Willowick 8 6 Wickliffe PnR 9 7 Wickliffe, Shops of #13 1 1 Willoughby Hills PnR #14 Eastlake PnR 3 3 Eastlake PnR 2 2
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Route 10 Painesville and Mentor Since Route 10 already operates a direct service (and performs the best of all Laketran’s commuter routes), no changes in the cost neutral scenario are recommended for Route 10.
Route 11 Madison and Lakeland Community College No changes in the cost neutral scenario are recommended for Route 11.
Route 12 Wickliffe and Willowick Route 12 currently operates all trips through the suburbs of Wickliffe and Willowick. The route is recommended to be simplified, operating all trips from the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride on Lakeland Boulevard. This change will offer a fast, direct trip for riders in these suburbs. In addition, trips currently operated on Route 13 are recommended to shift to Route 12, adding an additional trip in each direction from the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride location, shown in Figure 8.4.
Route 13 Wickliffe and Willoughby Hills Elimination of this route is recommended due to low demand and the desire to simplify the commuter express system as a Park-n-Ride to downtown Cleveland service. Route 13 trips would shift to Route 12, with the expectation that Route 13 riders would shift to the Wickliffe Park-n-Ride location served directly by Route 12.
Route 14 Eastlake No changes are recommended for Route 14.
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Dial-a-Ride Since Dial-a-Ride is a point to point service, recommendations are not focused on alignment like fixed route, but instead on reservation and trip policy. There are two main recommendations for Dial- a-Ride:
Continue to Maximize the Efficiency of Trapeze Reservation Software Laketran uses the Trapeze reservation software to schedule Dial-a-Ride trips. As part of this analysis a representative from Trapeze evaluated the way Laketran uses the software and made specific recommendations for how to use tools embedded in the software. Implementing these changes will result in a more efficient scheduling process, which will increase the number of Dial-a-Ride trips that the agency can provide, and improve the effectiveness of the service, reducing the number of late and missed trips and other errors in the Dial-a-Ride operations. Laketran should continue to work closely with Trapeze to improve the efficiency of its scheduling and dispatching process, and to take advantage of innovations in the use of the technology and paratransit operational practices.
Evaluate Potential Changes to Trip Policy The growth in Dial-a-Ride trips in recent years led Laketran to take the unprecedented step in 2008 of increasing the Dial-a-Ride fare to $10 per trip for non-qualifying riders (those who are not disabled or over 60 years of age). The fare change resulted in a sharp reduction in the number of non- disabled Dial-a-Ride users, but the service still generally has more demand than can be met by Laketran’s system. Among the policy changes that Laketran could undertake to ensure demand is equal to the agency’s Dial-a-Ride resources include: Reducing the advance reservation time from the current 10 days to 5 days. Reducing the advanced reservation time could result in fewer no shows. Change scheduling software parameters such as real-time, dwell time, and appointment scheduling to allow for additional demand to be met.
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Reductions in Service to Accommodate Any Deterioration in Laketran’s Financial Capacity This section lists potential reductions to service that could be pursued by Laketran if a combination of reduced revenues and/or increased costs occurs. A prioritized list of potential service reductions is shown below. In the priority ordering of the service reductions, the service reductions that would be made first (that is, the services that were deemed by Laketran and the consultant team, informed by public input from surveys and other input, to be the less important services) are identified first, and the services that are considered more important are prioritized lower, to be cut later or last. Should Laketran be forced to reduce costs, the agency can use the list below to determine which cuts to make and what the respective savings will be to the agency. Table 8.7 summarizes the cost savings estimated for each proposed service change. Note that variable and partial fixed costs per hour developed in the initial section of this chapter are used to estimate the cost savings. These costs include all variable costs for the agency and some of the fixed costs. This reflects that some fixed costs would be eliminated with each service reduction, but other fixed costs associated with operating the agency would remain, regardless of what services are cut.
Priority 1 - Reduce All Service to 7:00 PM Priority 1 involves ending both local bus and Dial-a-Ride services at 7PM. Ending Routes 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 at 7:00 PM would save approximately 2,205 annual revenue hours, or $142,000 annually. Ending Dial-a-Ride service at 7:00 PM is expected to save 4,287.5 annual revenue hours, or $296,000. Table 8.8 details the expected number of revenue hours saved for the Dial-a-Ride cut. Combined, Service Reduction Priority 1 saves $438,000 annually for the agency. Implementation of this priority will result in an annual ridership loss of about 10,600 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 2 - Reduce Commuter Express Trips Priority 2 consists of a reduction in commuter express trips by eight trips per day (four trips in each direction). This is expected to save the agency $305,000 ($38,125 per trip annually x 8 trips). Note this service reduction assumes Route 13 is still in operation, despite Route 13 being suspended in the cost neutral scenario. Should Route 13 have already been eliminated during a reduced revenue scenario, then the two trips from Route 13 would instead be eliminated from Route 12. Implementation of this priority will result in a 15 percent reduction of service on Route 10, a 16 percent reduction of service on Route 12, total elimination of Route 13, and a 40 percent reduction of service on Route 14; for an overall reduction of 22 percent of commuter express service and an annual ridership loss of more than 37,000 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 3 - Combine Routes 3 and 6 Routes 3 and 6 operate to/from the same east and west terminals, with each route serving the Shoregate Shopping Center in the west and Lakeland Community College/Great Lakes Mall in the east. This service reduction scenario proposes to combine these routes so that a single driver block would serve each, operating as Route 3 every other cycle and as Route 6 every other cycle. In effect this reduces the amount of revenue hours for the routes by half, and reduces the headway of Routes 3 and 6 to 120 minutes each. Combining these routes will result in a cost savings of
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$440,000. Implementation of this priority will result in a 50 percent reduction of Routes 3 and 6 and an annual ridership loss of nearly 48,000 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 4 - Eliminate Route 4 Midday Trip Service Reduction Priority 4 proposes to eliminate the midday trip on Route 4. Route 4 has the lowest ridership of all of Laketran’s routes, with the midday trip having the lowest ridership of all trips on the route. Cutting this trip will save approximately 490 annual revenue hours, or $31,000 annually. Implementation of this priority will result in an annual ridership loss of more than 1,300 trips and loss of all local fixed route bus service east of Painesville. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 5 – Cut Out-of-County Dial-a-Ride Medical Trips Priority 5 entails suspending Dial-a-Ride medical trip service to University Circle in neighboring Cuyahoga County, eliminating service to Cleveland Clinic, University Hospital, and Wade Park Veterans Hospital. The service reduction would also eliminate bi-monthly Dial-a-Ride service provided the second Monday and second Thursday of each month to other Cuyahoga County medical facilities. Eliminating these long-distance Dial-a-Ride trips is expected to save Laketran $453,000 per year. Implementation of this priority will result in a 5 percent loss in Dial-a-Ride service and an annual ridership loss of more than 11,600 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 6 – Further Reduce Commuter Express Trips This proposed service reduction would further reduce commuter express trips by an additional eight trips (four trips in each direction). Since Route 13 was eliminated in Service Reduction Priority 2, this will involve cutting an average of one trip from each of the remaining four commuter express routes (10, 11, 12, and 14). This would save the agency $280,000 ($35,000 per trip annually x 8 trips). Implementation of this priority will results in an 18 percent reduction of service on Route 10, a 50 percent reduction in Route 11, a 20 percent reduction of service on Route 12, and a 33 percent reduction of service on Route 14; for an overall reduction of 25 percent of commuter express service and an expected annual ridership loss of more than 35,000 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 7 – Increase Headways on Route 2 to 120 Minutes Service Reduction Priority 8 is similar to Priority 7 in that it recommends Route 2 also increase its headways from 60 minutes to 120 minutes. Increasing headways on Route 2 would also save the agency 3,430 annual revenue hours which corresponds to $220,000 per year in savings. Implementation of this priority will result in a 50 percent reduction of Route 2 and an annual ridership loss of more than 29,000 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 8 – Increase Headways on Route 1 to 120 Minutes This service reduction recommendation entails increasing headway on Route 1 from 60 minutes to 120 minutes. This reduction in headways would save the agency 3,430 annual revenue hours which would amount to $220,000 per year. Implementation of this priority will result in a 50 percent
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reduction of Route 1 and an annual ridership loss of about 46,500 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 9 - Eliminate Dial-a-Ride Fares Discount for Seniors Ages 60-64 Laketran’s current practice is to qualify seniors holding a Golden Buckeye card (issued at age 60) to use Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service for the Senior/ADA Dial-a-Ride fare of $2.50 per trip. Providing this discount (and, indeed, providing Dial-a-Ride Service for non-disabled patrons, regardless of age) is not required under the ADA or any other law, and thus the practice can be eliminated if Laketran is forced to reduce costs. Table 8.9 shows the calculation used to estimate cost savings associated with this proposed service reduction. A market analysis of Dial-a-Ride riders shows seniors aged 60-64 are approximately 4 percent of the Dial-a-Ride ridership, or 15,925 riders annually. A fare elasticity of -0.2 was assumed2 (meaning a 2 percent decrease in riders for every 10 percent change in fare), so that raising the fare for these riders from $2.50 to $10.00 will result in a loss of approximately 80 percent of these riders from the system. In turn, this means a reduction of approximately 3,465 revenue hours and would generate a cost savings of $220,000 for Laketran. This service reduction assumes that the eliminated Dial-a-Ride drivers would be part-time and thus have a lower cost per hour than full time drivers. Implementation of this priority would result in an estimated annual ridership loss of more than 7,300 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 10 – Eliminate Route 4 Service Reduction Priority 10 recommends fully eliminating Route 4. Eliminating the trips remaining after the previous service reduction on that route (described in Priority 4, above) would result in savings of an additional 662 annual revenue hours and a further $42,000 in annual savings. Implementation of this priority will result elimination of Route 4, leaving no fixed route bus service east of Painesville and an annual ridership loss of around 750 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 11 - Eliminate Commuter Express While Service Reduction Priorities 2 and 6 recommend eliminating select Commuter Express trips, this cut recommends eliminating all of the remaining Commuter Express service not eliminated by the previous service cuts. Eliminating the remaining Commuter Express routes would result in a savings of 5,407 revenue hours and an annual cost savings of $614,000. Implementation of this priority will result in elimination of all commuter express service and an estimated annual ridership loss of more than 115,000 trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 12 - Eliminate Local Fixed Route Bus Service This cut recommends eliminating the remaining local fixed route bus service not previously eliminated under higher priority reductions. Eliminating routes 1, 2, 3, 5, and 6 would result in a savings of 14,953 revenue hours and, at a cost of $64.18 per revenue hour, a cost savings of approximately $960,000 for the agency and an additional $509,854 a year in savings associated
2 TCRP Report 95 Chapter 12 Transit Pricing and Fares Page | 164
with administrative costs associated with the operation of local bus service. The total savings associated with Cut Priority 12 would be $1,469,854. Implementation of this priority will result in elimination of all local fixed routes and a ridership loss of more than 156,000 annual trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
Priority 13 - Restrict Dial-a-Ride to Elderly and Disabled Only, and Reduce Days of Operation Restricting Dial-a-Ride to specific days of the week and to providing service to ADA-eligible passengers only would be the last possible service cut before the complete shutdown of Laketran service. In this scenario Laketran would only operate two days a week (Mondays and Thursdays) and only for the 79.1 percent of current riders who are over the age of 65 and/or disabled. This scenario assumes that riders using the Monday service would include 100 percent of current Monday riders and 25 percent of current Tuesday drivers. Riders using the Thursday service include 100 percent of Thursday riders plus 25 percent of Wednesday riders and 25 percent of Friday riders. The number of riders was then reduced to 79.1 percent of the existing level to account for the ADA- only restriction. The demand was then multiplied by the average number of drivers required for each ½ hour window in the Dial-a-Ride system to determine the total number of revenue hours required for the reduced service. The calculated result, shown in Table 8.10, indicates a total of 50,934 revenue hours will be required for the reduced service. This means a savings of 9,998 full time revenue hours and 18,181 part time revenue hours can be saved with the reduced service. The reduced revenue hours result in a savings of $1,898,000 for the agency. This cut assumes that fixed route service has been eliminated. Federal law requires demand response service to be provided within 0.75 miles of fixed route service. However, if fixed route is eliminated, then Laketran would have greater freedom to determine the boundaries of the service to further reduce demand to match available funds. Implementation of this priority will result in first come, first service Dial-a-Ride service and an annual ridership loss of nearly 49,000 annual trips. Communities and market segments affected by these cuts are highlighted in Table 8.12.
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Table 8.7: Cost Savings for Reduced Revenues Scenario
Cost Time Vehicles Annual Revenue Line Item Cumulative Priority Route Service Type Per Period Affected Hours Savings Savings Hour 1a Reduce Fixed route Service from 8:00 PM to 7:00 PM Local 1900‐2000 9 2,205 $64.18 $142,000 $142,000 1b Reduce Dial‐a‐Ride Service Span from 8:00 PM to 7:00 PM Dial‐a‐Ride 1900‐2000 0 ‐ $296,000 $438,000 2a Reduce Commuter Express Route 10 by 1 Trip in Each Direction Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 613 $113.60 $70,000 $508,000 2b Reduce Commuter Express Route 12 by 1 Trip in Each Direction Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 613 $113.60 $70,000 $578,000 2c Reduce Commuter Express Route 14 by 1 Trip in Each Direction Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 613 $113.60 $70,000 $648,000 2d Eliminate Commuter Express Route 13 Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 835 $113.60 $95,000 $743,000 3a Route 6 120‐min headway Local 0600‐2000 1 3,430 $64.18 $220,000 $963,000 3b Route 3 120‐min headway Local 0600‐2000 1 3,430 $64.18 $220,000 $1,183,000 4 Eliminate Midday Route 4 Trip Local 0700‐1800 1 490 $64.18 $31,000 $1,214,000 5 Cut University Circle Medical runs Dial‐a‐Ride $453,000 $1,667,000 6a Reduce Commuter Express Route 10 by 1 Trip in Each Direction Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 613 $113.60 $70,000 $1,737,000 6b Reduce Commuter Express Route 11 by 1 Trip in Each Direction Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 613 $113.60 $70,000 $1,807,000 6c Reduce Commuter Express Route 12 by 1 Trip in Each Direction Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 613 $113.60 $70,000 $1,877,000 6d Reduce Commuter Express Route 14 by 1 Trip in Each Direction Commuter Express 0530‐1915 2 613 $113.60 $70,000 $1,947,000 7 Route 2 120‐min headway Local 0600‐2000 1 3,430 $64.18 $220,000 $2,167,000 8 Route 1 120‐min headway Local 0600‐2000 1 3,430 $64.18 $220,000 $2,387,000 9 Eliminate Fare Reduction for Dial‐a‐Ride Passengers Ages 60‐64 Dial‐a‐Ride 0530‐1900 0 ‐ $220,000 $2,607,000 10 Eliminate Route 4 AM and PM trips Local 0700‐1800 1 662 $64.18 $42,000 $2,649,000 11a Eliminate Route 10 Commuter Express Service Commuter Express 0530‐1915 12 2,244 $113.60 $255,000 $2,904,000 11b Eliminate Route 11 Commuter Express Service Commuter Express 0530‐1915 4 551 $113.60 $63,000 $2,967,000 11c Eliminate Route 12 Commuter Express Service Commuter Express 0530‐1915 12 2,328 $113.60 $264,000 $3,231,000 11d Eliminate Route 14 Commuter Express Service Commuter Express 0530‐1915 3 284 $113.60 $32,000 $3,263,000 12a Eliminate Route 6 Fixed route Service Local 0600‐1900 1 2,940 $64.18 $189,000 $3,452,000 12b Eliminate Route 5 Fixed route Service Local 0600‐1900 1 3,136 $64.18 $201,000 $3,653,000 12c Eliminate Route 3 Fixed route Service Local 0600‐1900 1 2,940 $64.18 $189,000 $3,842,000 12d Eliminate Route 2 Fixed route Service Local 0600‐1900 2 2,940 $64.18 $189,000 $4,031,000 12e Eliminate Route 1 Fixed route Service Local 0600‐1900 2 2,997 $64.18 $192,000 $4,223,000 12F Eliminate Administration from Fixed Route Service Local $509,854 $4,732,854 13 Restrict Dial‐a‐Ride Service to Disabled Only and only certain communities Dial‐a‐Ride 0530‐1900 1 ‐ $1,898,000 $6,630,854
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Table 8.8: Dial-a-Ride Savings by Ending at 7:00 PM
Cost per Daily Hours Days of Annual Cost Revenue 7p-8p Operation Hours Savings Hour
Full Time Drivers 9 245 2,205 $74.49 $164,250 Part Time Drivers 8.5 245 2,082.5 $63.45 $132,135 Total 4,287.5 $296,385
Table 8.9: Dial-a-Ride Savings from Eliminating Fare Reduction for Senior Citizens Aged 60-64
Average Average Percentage of Operating Riders Hours Total Daily annual Total Days Lost Saved Saved Riders riders
Riders Aged 60-64 4% 65 245 15,925 12,740 3,465 $220,000
Table 8.10: Reduced Dial-a-Ride to Monday and Thursday ADA-only Service
Operating Annual Estimated Daily Hrs FT Hrs PT Hrs Days Hrs Cost Savings
Current Dial-a-Ride 104,532 63,137 41,395
Dial-a-Ride after other cuts 60,932 18,181
Monday and Thursday Dial-a-Ride 490 104 50,934 50,934 0
Change -9,998 -18,181 $1,898,000
Summary Table 8.11 summarizes the proposed reductions in service and shows the potential cost savings associated with each service reduction, but more importantly, the devastating impact of lost ridership associated with each reduction in Laketran services. It is essential to understand that this plan does not recommend that Laketran makes these service reductions. This list of potential service reductions was developed to show the steps that Laketran would be forced to take to avoid projected deficits if Laketran cannot obtain additional revenues from an increase in the local sales tax or encounters significant, further reductions in federal and/or state funding over the next ten years. Priority numbers are ascribed to each service reduction along with the individual cost savings to be achieved ONLY to provide a guide to match the extent of the service cuts to the size of the deficit that would have to be closed. As pointed out in Chapter 7: Financial Capacity, Scenario B, should Laketran have to reduce services by $4.8 million beginning in 2017, Laketran would have to cut the services identified as Priorities 1 Page | 167
through 12 (see column Aggregate Cost Savings). A cut of this order of magnitude would eliminate all local fixed route and commuter express services. Without local fixed route and commuter express service, 499,215 (64%) of Laketran’s passengers would lose access to work, healthcare, college/vocational training, social and recreational venues as well as shopping for essential goods and services. Furthermore, Dial-a-Ride service would have to be restricted to not exceed a set number of trips per day, limited to essential trips only, and provided on a “first come, first served basis”. Table 8.12 details the groups of riders who will be negatively impacted by further reductions in Laketran services. Table 8.11: Estimated Impact of Service Cuts
Commuter Aggregate % of Service Ridership Priority Dial‐a‐Ride Fixed Route Description Cost Savings Express Cost Savings Cut Loss 1 xx Eliminate all Fixed Route & Dial‐a‐Ride weeknight service after 7:00 PM $438,000 $438,000 1.43% 10,611 2* x Reduce Commuter Express Routes 10, 12 & 14 by one trip in each direction & eliminate route 13 $305,000 $743,000 22.22% 37,041 3* x Route 3 and Route 6 with 2‐Hour Headways for Both from 1 hour headways $440,000 $1,183,000 50.00% 47,922 4 x Eliminate Route 4 Midday Trip $31,000 $1,214,000 50.00% 1,349 5* x Cut 100% of University Circle Medical Trips $453,000 $1,667,000 4.63% 11,622 6* x Reduce Commuter Express Routes 10, &11 12, 14 by one trip in each direction $280,000 $1,947,000 25.00% 35,191 7* x Cut Route 2 to 2 hour headway from 1 hour headway $220,000 $2,167,000 50.00% 29,278 8* x Cut Route 1 to 2 hour headway from 1 hour headway $220,000 $2,387,000 50.00% 46,470 9 x Eliminate Fare Reduction for Dial‐a‐Ride Passengers Ages 60‐64 $220,000 $2,607,000 2.91% 7,313 10 x Eliminate route 4 AM and PM trips $42,000 $2,649,000 100.00% 762 11 x Eliminate Commuter Express $614,000 $3,263,000 100.00% 115,192 12 x Eliminate Local Bus Service $1,469,854 $4,732,854 100.00% 156,465 13* x Reduce Dial‐a‐Ride service to match availability of funding $1,898,000 $6,630,854 19.41% 48,779 TOTAL $6,630,854 73.80% 547,994
Foot Notes 2* Represents a 15% reduction of service on route 10, a 16% reduction on route 12, a 100% reduction on route 13, and a 40% reduction on route 14, total reduction of 22% and a loss of 19.7 3* Represents a 50% reduction in service to routes 3 & 6 5* Represents 4.63% of all Dial‐a‐Ride service 6* Represents a 18% reduction on route 10, a 50% reduction on route 11, a 20% reduction on route 12, and a 33% reduction on route 14. total reduction of 25% 7* Represents a 50% reduction in service to route 2 8* Represents a 50% reduction in service to route 1 13* Service will be provided on a first come first serve basis
Fixed Route Communities Served 1 Painesville, Mentor, Lakeland College, Mall 2Mentor, Willoughby, Wickliffe, Euclid, Mall 3Lakeland College, Mentor, Wickliffe, Mall 4Madison, Painesville 5Fairport, Painesville 6 Willoughby Hills, Willowick, Mentor
Commuter Express Communities Served 10 Mentor 11 Madison, Lakeland College 12 Willowick, Wickliffe 13 Wickliffe, Willouguby Hills 14 Eastlake Figure 8.12 details the groups of riders who are likely to be affected by Laketran cuts in service.
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Table 8.12: Laketran Service Reduction Affected Markets
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Improvements to Meet Growing Demand This third scenario includes $3 million in service restoration and improvements that address the growing demand for Laketran services documented in Chapters 5, and 6 if Laketran’s sales tax levy were to be increased to ½ of one percent. A total of $3 million is the maximum amount that Laketran can invest in service restoration and improvements so that revenues from the additional sales tax levy can sustain these enhancements for ten years and beyond. Table 8.13 summarizes the calculated cost of each improvement, while Table 8.14 summarizes the cost by priority group. In total, $3 million worth of improvements across all three Laketran modes (fixed route bus, commuter express, and Dial-a-Ride) are recommended. Each of the priorities is described in detail below:
Priority 1 - Restore Local Fixed Route Bus Service and Dial-a-Ride Span to 2008 Levels The first service priority is to restore local bus and Dial-a-Ride weekday service span to 2008 levels, the levels of service that prevailed before Laketran made cuts to the system due to reduced revenues. Routes 2, 3, and 6 already operate at their 2008 levels, so improvements for this priority are limited to Route 1 (extended from 8:00 PM to 11:00 PM) and Route 5 (extended from 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM). This will result in an additional 2,450 revenue hours and a cost of $157,000 for the agency. With this priority, Dial-a-Ride will also be extended to 2008 levels, which will result in approximately 1,225 revenue hours at a cost of $91,000. The total cost for Priority 1 would be $248,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 2 - Restore Local Fixed Route Bus and Dial-a-Ride Saturday Service to 2008 Levels Priority 2 is another restoration of 2008 levels, this time for Saturday service. Currently Laketran does not operate on Saturdays, so the restoration includes adding both local bus and Dial-a-Ride service. For local fixed route bus, Routes 1, 2, 3, and 6 would operate on 120-minute headway, with Routes 1 and 3 interlined as a combined route. For Dial-a-Ride service, 14 full time drivers are expected in order to provide Saturday service. The local bus service is expected to cost 2,548 revenue hours and $163,000, and the Dial-a-Ride service is expected to cost 7,696 revenue hours and $573,000. The total cost for Priority 2 would be $736,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 3 – Operate Local Fixed Route Bus, Commuter Express Service, and Dial-a-Ride on Federally Observed Holidays Priority 3 recommends expanding local bus, commuter express, and Dial-a-Ride service on Monday Public Holidays throughout the year (i.e. Martin Luther King Day, Presidents’ Day, Columbus Day, Veterans’ Day, etc.). This service would result in approximately 695 revenue hours for local and commuter express service and cost $54,000. For Dial-a-Ride, an additional 1,768 revenue hours and $132,000 in cost would be realized to provide this service recommendation. The total cost for Priority 3 would be $186,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
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Priority 4 - Operate Local Bus Saturday the same as Weekday Priority 4 is to increase the level of Saturday service so that it matches weekday frequency. This means adding driver blocks so that Saturday service operates at a frequency of every 60 minutes (instead of every 120 minutes, as indicated in Priority 2). In addition to improving Routes 1, 2, 3, and 6, this recommendation also includes adding service on Route 5. Priority 4 would add 3,172 revenue hours and cost $203,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation. New Innovative Hybrid Fixed Route and Dial-a-Ride Service The services proposed in the recommendation Priorities 5 and 6 would be operated using a new innovative hybrid Perhaps the most innovative service that Laketran and its consultants have developed to recommendation in this plan is meet the growing demand for public transit service in lower the proposed hybrid service density environments and do not require the seating perfectly suited for the new capacity of a traditional 35 or 40 foot transit bus. The Heisley-Tyler corridor and Tripoint cornerstone of this new hybrid service is a customized Dial- Concord services. This innovation a-Ride vehicle that can operate in both a local fixed route allows Laketran to use smaller and demand responsive environment. In order to attain this vehicles where ridership is likely flexibility, Laketran has replaced obsolete Dial-a-Ride buses to be lower while promoting with similar vehicles that are equipped with: efficiency by allowing Laketran to Electronic signs that can be programmed to display flexibly schedule trips as either various destinations and can be seen in both day fixed route or demand-response. time and night time service (existing Dial-a-Ride buses do not have destination signs which prohibits there use in fixed route service and at a night); Bicycle racks that encourage multi-modal travel; Customized interior lighting when the vehicles are used at night in fixed route service; “Pull cords” so passengers can signal the driver when they want to get off at a particular stop along a fixed route; and Electronic registering fareboxes that permit the driver to switch between fixed route fares and Dial-a-Ride fares. See Figure 8.9 for a picture of this new customized vehicle. This new hybrid service combines the efficiency of fixed route service with the operational and scheduling flexibility of Laketran’s Dial-a-Ride service. These vehicles are sized appropriately for the lower demand on the proposed new routes and for services in lower density areas. Seating capacity on these vehicles can accommodate 12 seated passengers or up to five wheelchairs. The smaller vehicles will use less fuel than a full sized bus, and will be able to maneuver more easily on neighborhood streets. Larger vehicles with varying seating capacities will replace these buses as demand warrants. In service on the Heisley-Tyler route and on the Tripoint Concord route (described below), the buses would operate fixed route trips on a fixed schedule, but in between scheduled trips give them the
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flexibility to operate in Dial-a-Ride service. This flexible scheduling will allow Laketran to deploy its buses and drivers more efficiently, reducing the cost of the service compared to operating the two new services as standard fixed routes. These customized vehicles will also be used to begin the new, Monday through Friday Mentor- Headlands – SR 615 service (Priority 7) and for later weeknight fixed route service (Priority 8) when demand normally tapers off.
Priority 5 - Heisley-Tyler Monday-Friday Service This recommendation proposes a new local fixed route service operating on Heisley Road and Tyler Boulevard to serve the many businesses located along these corridors. Figure 8.5 depicts the potential alignment for this route. Priority 5 assumes the Heisley-Tyler route operates seven round trips a day, or 14 revenue hours a day, which results in 1,960 annual revenue hours at a cost of $126,000. Since this route will serve industrial areas with shift workers, the exact time of day of the trips and span of service for the route are not included in this recommendation. Instead, Laketran will work with businesses along Heisley and Tyler in order to determine the most effective trip times to serve workers. To complement the route, Route 4 also would be extended from downtown Painesville east towards the Great Lakes Mall and operate along Tyler Boulevard, as shown in Figure 8.6. This would amount to an additional 1,818 revenue hours and cost $117,000. The total cost for Priority 5 would be $243,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 6 - TriPoint Monday-Friday Service Priority 6 is another new route recommended to help connect Painesville residents to jobs in the SR- 44 corridor south of I-90, where Tripoint Medical Center is located and other future medical facilities and other developments are proposed. The proposed route would use the same innovative hybrid service described above in Priority 5. Other Laketran riders would be able to connect to this route in Painesville using either Route 1 or Route 5. Figure 8.7 shows the proposed route alignment. Priority 5 assumes that the new Tripoint route would operate Monday through Friday for seven trips throughout the day 120-minute headway). The route would result in 1,715 additional revenue hours and $110,000 in additional cost to Laketran. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 7 - Mentor Headlands-SR-615 Monday-Friday Service Priority 7 is a new route connecting Lakeland Community College, Great Lakes Mall, and Mentor to Mentor Headlands via SR-615, shown in Figure 8.8. The expected recreational and residential riders to/from Mentor Headlands would drive ridership this route. The new route is expected to operate with 60-minute headway with a single driver block for 12 hours each day, Monday through Friday. The route would require 2,940 revenue hours and cost $189,000 annually. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 8 - Operate all Local Routes to 11:00 PM In Priority 8 all local routes would increase their service span to 11:00 PM. Based on Priority 1, Route 1 will already be operating to 11:00 PM. Extending the service span on routes 2, 3, 5 and 6 will
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result in an additional 4,900 revenue hours, at an annual cost of $313,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 9 - Improve Dial-a-Ride Service In 2008 Laketran reduced the number of Dial-a-Ride drivers in order to control costs in the face of declining revenues. Priority 9 recommends restoring Dial-a-Ride service to a level that will allow Laketran to respond to growing demand for Dial-a-Ride services in the county. These additional drivers will result in 9,800 revenue hours and a cost of $622,000 to the agency. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 10 - New Sunday Dial-a-Ride Priority 10 is to add five part-time Dial-a-Ride drivers to provide that service for eight hours on Sundays. The market for this Dial-a-Ride service is expected to be users attending religious services, shopping and visiting friends and relatives. While eight hour shifts are assumed for each driver, it is not anticipated that riders would be able to use the Dial-a-Ride service for work purposes on Sunday, since the short operating day would not likely conform to most works shifts. 2,080 revenue hours of service would be required to provide this service, at an estimated annual cost of $132,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
Priority 11 - New Commuter Express Midday Trips Priority 11 would add one midday trip in each direction for two commuter express routes. These routes would not match any one existing Commuter Express route, but instead provide midday return service to each Park-n-Ride location served in the AM and PM peak. One route would serve all Park- n-Ride lots in the SR-2 corridor, serving the Painesville, Mentor, and Wickliffe Park-n-Ride locations. The other route would provide service to Park-n-Ride locations in the I-90 corridor, serving the Lakeland Community College and Madison Park-n-Ride locations. The midday trip would provide convenience for those who are working a half-day and need to return to Cleveland at midday on a regular or emergency basis. This recommendation would add 1,470 revenue hours of service, at an annual cost of $167,000. See Table 8.15 for a list of communities and market segments that will benefit from this recommendation.
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Figure 8.5: Proposed Heisley-Tyler Route Alignment
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Figure 8.6: Route 4 Extension Proposed Alignment
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Figure 8.7: Proposed TriPoint Route Alignment
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Figure 8.8: Proposed Mentor Headland Route Alignment
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Figure 8.9: New Vehicle for New Innovative Hybrid Fixed Route and Dial-a-Ride Service
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Table 8.13: Costs for Additional Revenues Scenario
Additional Total Expected Time Cost Per Cumulative Priority Route Vehicles Annual Hours Annual Period Hour Cost Required Operating Cost 1a Restore Route 1 Service Span to 11:00 PM. Local 2000‐2300 2 1,960 $64.18 $126,000 $126,000 1b Restore Route 5 Service Span to 9:00 PM. Local 2000‐2100 1 490 $64.18 $31,000 $157,000 1c Restore Dial‐A‐Ride service to 11:00 PM Dial‐a‐Ride 0800‐2100 5 1,225 $74.49 $91,000 $248,000 2a Restore Route 1/3 Saturday Service Local 0900‐2100 2 1,248 $64.18 $80,000 $328,000 2b Restore Route 2 Saturday Service Local 0900‐2100 1 624 $64.18 $40,000 $368,000 2c Restore Route 6 Saturday Service Local 0800‐2100 1 676 $64.18 $43,000 $411,000 2d Restore Dial‐A‐Ride Saturday Service Dial‐a‐Ride 0800‐2100 14 7,696 $74.49 $573,000 $984,000 3a Local Route Holiday Service Local 0600‐2300 1 523 $64.18 $34,000 $1,018,000 3b Commuter Express Holiday Service Commuter Express 0600‐2300 1 172 $113.60 $20,000 $1,038,000 3c Dial‐A‐Ride Holiday Service Dial‐a‐Ride 0600‐2300 1 1,768 $74.49 $132,000 $1,170,000 4a Operate Route 1 Saturday Service the same as Weekday Service Local 0900‐2100 1 624 $64.18 $40,000 $1,210,000 4b Operate Route 2 Saturday Service the same as Weekday Service Local 0900‐2100 1 624 $64.18 $40,000 $1,250,000 4c Operate Route 3 Saturday Service the same as Weekday Service Local 0900‐2100 1 624 $64.18 $40,000 $1,290,000 4d Operate Route 6 Saturday Service the same as Weekday Service Local 0800‐2100 1 676 $64.18 $43,000 $1,333,000 4e Operate Route 5 Saturday Service the same as Weekday Service Local 0900‐2100 1 624 $64.18 $40,000 $1,373,000 5a New Heisley‐Tyler Shuttle Service M‐F Local 0800‐1400 2 1,960 $64.18 $126,000 $1,499,000 5b Extend route 4 to Tyler Blvd Local 0800‐1400 1 1,818 $64.18 $117,000 $1,616,000 6 New Concord/Hospital M‐F Service Local 0600‐1200 1 1,715 $64.18 $110,000 $1,726,000 7 New Mentor Headland‐SR615 M‐F Service Local 0600‐1800 1 2,940 $64.18 $189,000 $1,915,000 8a Operate Route 2 Service Span to 11:00 PM. Local 2000‐2300 2 1,470 $64.18 $94,000 $2,009,000 8b Operate Route 3 Service Span to 11:00 PM. Local 2000‐2300 2 1,470 $64.18 $94,000 $2,103,000 8c Operate Route 5 Service Span to 11:00 PM. Local 2100‐2300 1 490 $64.18 $31,000 $2,134,000 8d Operate Route 6 Service Span to 11:00 PM. Local 2000‐2300 2 1,470 $64.18 $94,000 $2,228,000 9 Restore Dial‐a‐Ride Service Dial‐a‐Ride 0800‐2100 5 9,800 $63.45 $622,000 $2,850,000 10 New Sunday Dial‐a‐Ride Service Dial‐a‐Ride 0800‐1400 5 2,080 $63.45 $132,000 $2,982,000 11 New Commuter Express Midday Service Commuter Express 1100‐1300 2 1,470 $113.60 $167,000 $3,149,000
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Summary Table 8.14 summarizes the improvements by priority. Implementing all improvements would require Laketran to spend an additional $3.149 million annually.
Table 8.14: Expanded Revenues Summary
Priority Description Cost 1 Restore Fixed Route and Dial‐a‐Ride Service Span to 2008 $248,000 2 Restore Fixed Route Saturday Service to 2008 $736,000 3 Operate on Holidays (MLK, Presidents, Columbus, Veterans) $186,000 4 Operate Fixed Route Saturday the same as Weekday $203,000 5+6+7 New Routes $542,000 8 Existing Routes to 11:00 PM $313,000 9 Restore Dial‐a‐Ride Service $622,000 10 New Sunday Dial‐a‐Ride $132,000 11 New Commuter Midday $167,000 Total $3,149,000
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Table 8.15: Laketran Service Improvements Affected Markets
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Regional Bicycle Plan The Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency (NOACA) is the metropolitan planning organization for Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain and Medina Counties in Ohio. As the region’s metropolitan planning organization, NOACA is responsible for transportation planning in the five-county area. The NOACA Governing Board determines how federal transportation dollars will be spent in the region. While the scope of NOACA’s activities is broad, two of its main federally mandated transportation-related responsibilities include: developing the region’s long range transportation plan which outlines the vision for transportation through 2030 and lists the projects that NOACA has identified for funding over the next four years. Because federal regulations mandate that regional transportation planning include all modes of transportation, it is important to incorporate the Regional Bicycle Plan into the region’s long range transportation plan entitled, Connections 2035. NOACA’s 2013 Regional Bicycle Plan provides data that suggest that bicycle ridership is continuing to grow in northeast Ohio and maps out what needs to be accomplished in the region to make it more bicycle-friendly. Included in the plan is a vision of a system of interconnected bicycle routes throughout northeast Ohio known as the Regional Priority Bikeway Network (RPBN). The Bicycle Transportation Map for Lake County is presented in Figure 8.10. The Regional Bicycle Plan documents the many benefits associated with improving the region’s bicycle infrastructure and the positive impact it has on the environment, public health, safety, travel and the economy. Biking, similar to public transportation, is a sustainable mode of transportation. Sustainability extends beyond just the operating efficiency and emissions. Sustainable transportation allows the basic access and development needs of individuals, companies and society to be met safely and in a manner consistent with human and ecosystem health, and promotes equity within and between successive generations. Sustainable transportation options are affordable, operate fairly and efficiently, offer choices of transport mode, and support a competitive economy, as well as balanced regional development. Biking and public transportation limit emissions and waste within the planet’s ability to absorb them, uses renewable resources at or below their rates of generation, and uses non- renewable resources at or below the rates of development of renewable substitutes, while minimizing the impact on the use of land and the generation of noise. A more bicycle-friendly Lake County can potentially lead to a wide variety of benefits for the region. The bicycle is a zero-emission vehicle, so replacing automobile trips with bicycle trips decreases air pollution and can improve air quality, a current problem in northeast Ohio. Bicycling also serves as a great form of exercise, which can help combat obesity as well as other health conditions. Infrastructure improvements can also improve safety for pedestrians and bicyclists, and can make others feel safe enough to take to the road on two wheels instead of four. This infrastructure is typically less expensive and easier to maintain than building and expanding roads for motorized traffic. Finally, a more bicycle-friendly Lake County can provide a number of mobility benefits such as a safer and more efficient means of transportation for those who do not have access to a car. As pointed out earlier in this document, Laketran has equipped all its local fixed route buses with bicycle racks and a number of its Dial-a-Ride buses that can operate in a hybrid environment of both fixed route and demand responsive.
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Figure 8.10: Lake County Bicycle Map
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As shown in Table 8.16, bicycle ridership has increased 39 percent in 2012 compared to 2011. Besides the increase in Laketran’s Rack-n-Roll program, another take-away to note that bicycle-bus connections take place throughout the entire year and not just in the spring, summer and fall. Because bicycle-bus connections have been increasing, Laketran has been increasing their participation with other interested parties to create additional and improved bike connectivity in Lake County, as shown in Figure 8.11. A group including officials from Laketran, the City of Mentor, the City of Painesville, the Village of Fairport Harbor, the Lake County Health District, and the Environmental Design Group have been working on a plan called the “Central Lake County Lakefront Connectivity Plan”. The study area for the plan is outlined below and includes yellow dots indicating points of interest. The study area includes connections to current Laketran fixed routes 1, 3, 4, & 5. The new, proposed Mentor-Headlands-SR-615 route is almost entirely within the study area, making it of special significance to the bike plan. Figure 8.11: Central Lake County Bicycle Connectivity Map
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Table 8.16: Laketran “Rack-n-Roll” Bicycle Ridership
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Chapter 9: Levy Options
REASONS TO SUPPORT A RENEWAL Proposed Ballot Language for a Renewal of the ¼ of One Percent Sales Tax for a Period of 10 Years “Shall the continuation of an existing sales and use tax be levied for all transit purposes of the Laketran Regional Transit Authority at a rate not exceeding one-quarter of one percent for 10 years, effective July 1, 2014?” Reasons for the Support of a Renewal to the Sales Tax Recent successful levies for countywide organizations asking for increased funding passed by very small margins: o November 2010, Lakeland Community College Property Tax Replacement passed with 52 percent voting “yes” o November 2012, Lake Metropark’s Property Tax Replacement passed with 50.4 percent voting “yes” The results of the voter survey taken by Triad Research Group in August 2012 demonstrate that it could be challenging to win voter support for a ¼ of one percent increase in Laketran’s sales tax. o Asked the first time without any additional information given about Laketran’s Financial Recovery Plan initiatives to cut expenses and find new revenue streams yielded the following results: . 18% Definitely for an . 21% Definitely against increase an increase . 36% Probably for an . 19% Probably again an increase increase . 54% Total for an . 40% Total again an increase increase 6% Unsure
Given the mood of current voters, a renewal is a less risky course of action to pursue vs. putting an increase in sales tax on the ballot. What is Laketran’s “back-up” plan if Laketran goes to the ballot in November 2013 for an increase and the initiative fails? Does Laketran go back on the ballot in February or May of 2014 for a renewal or try again for another increase? Is this sufficient time to raise funds for a second campaign? The recent increase of ½ of one percent by the County will hurt the chances of Laketran to win the support for another increase in the sales tax. Voter approval of a renewal at least provides Laketran with a guaranteed revenue stream. Combined with the use of funds from Laketran’s cash balances, a renewal may allow Laketran to maintain current levels of Dial-a-Ride, Local In-County Fixed Route and Commuter Express services for the 3-4 years while the economy continues to improve and voter sentiment may become more favorable to an increase in sales tax.
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Approximately $200,000 will be required to finance a voter education campaign to increase Laketran’s existing sales tax. The current Friends of Laketran (FOL) campaign balance is a little more than half of what is needed. In today’s environment, it is going to be very difficult to raise sufficient funds to educate and communicate with the public about the need for an increase in the sales tax. Should the tax increase initiative fail in November, it is doubtful Laketran can raise more campaign funds in a short period of time to go back again before the current levy expires in July 2014. Voters are no more receptive to increases in sales tax than income or property taxes. Some people don’t believe the voters of Lake County will support an increase in sales tax for Laketran.
REASONS TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE Proposed Ballot Language for a Renewal and an Increase to a ½ of One Percent for a Period of 10 Years “Shall the continuation of an existing sales and use tax be levied for all transit purposes of the Laketran Regional Transit Authority at an increased rate not exceeding one-half of one percent for 10 years, effective July 1, 2014?” Reasons for the Support of an Increase to the Sales Tax Results of recent levies for countywide organizations asking for an increase passed by sufficient margins: o March 2012, the Senior Services Replacement Property Tax passed with 59.1 percent voting “yes”; o May 2010, the Lake County Board of Developmental Disabilities Replacement Property Tax passed with 64.3 percent voting “yes"; and o November 2011, Lakeland Community College’s Property Tax Renewal passed with 58.2 percent voting "yes". The following results of the voter survey taken by Triad Research Group in August 2012 demonstrate that with hard work and a well-financed, organized campaign, the voters of Lake County could support a ¼ of one percent increase in Laketran’s sales tax. o Asked a second time after being given information about Laketran’s Financial Recovery Plan initiatives to cut expenses and find new revenue streams yielded the following results: . 26% Definitely for an . 15% Definitely against increase an increase . 36% Probably for an . 19% Probably again an increase increase . 62% Total for an . 34% Total again an increase increase 4% Unsure
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Funds for public transit are very volatile and fragile. Given the past reductions in federal and state funding and the uncertainty of future funding, Laketran needs a stable, reliable, predictable and increasing source of local funds in order to remain viable so that it can respond to the growing needs for more public transit service in Lake County and mitigate the need to make any further service cuts to offset future deficits. Laketran has never had an increase in the local sales tax rate. Laketran has been operating service with the same ¼ of one percent sales tax rate for 25 years. With an increase in the sales tax, Laketran will have the financial resources to restore later weeknight, Saturday and holiday services for senior citizens, people with disabilities, workers, and students, clients of health & human service agencies and people who depend on public transportation to shop for essentials. With an increase in the sales tax, Laketran will have the financial resources to respond to the increasing needs for more public transit services regarding: o An aging, transit dependent population; o Access to new state-of-the-art medical facilities (TriPoint, University Hospitals, Cleveland Clinic/Mentor); o Access to major corridors not currently served (Rte. 615); o Access to populations with demographics that support public transit (Headlands, Mentor-on-the-Lake); and o Access to existing and future jobs along Tyler Blvd. Millions of dollars are being invested in Lake County by the private and public sectors to improve the quality of life of Lake County residents in the future. With additional funds Laketran will be able to provide new or improved access to these investments for at least 10 years and beyond: o TriPoint, University Hospitals & Cleveland Clinic (medical and employment trips); o Expansion of manufacturing along Tyler Blvd. and other locations around Lake County (employment/work trips); o Former Coe property/Public Private Partnership (employment/work trips); o City of Painesville Brownfield Project (former site of Lake East Hospital); o Lakeland Community College/Holden University Center (career education trips); o Renovation of the Great Lakes Mall, Eastlake Super Wal-Mart (employment/shopping trips); o Extended Housing: McKinley Grove (Painesville); o Cleveland/Lake County Rape Crisis Center (Painesville); o Merger of Neighboring & Pathways into Beacon Health (site to be determined); and o New/Expanded Programs & Services (United Way, YMCA, Signature Health, Catholic Charities, Council on Aging, Senior Centers, Crossroads, Extended Housing, Fair Housing Resource Center, Lifeline, Project Hope, Salvation Army, Society of Rehabilitation, Lake Geauga, Veterans Administration, LC Board of DD (Vocational Guidance Center, Willoughby Workshops, Community Employment Services), Center for Dialysis Care/Renal Center. Riders and agencies make requests for the restoration/expansion of Laketran services and claim they would support a sales tax increase that would cost them only $.04 on $10. Voters are more receptive to increases in sales tax than income or property tax increases.
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Approximately, $200,000 will be required to finance a voter education campaign to increase Laketran’s existing sales tax. Raising the additional funding to supplement FOL campaign balance will be challenging but not impossible.
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