of David Cameron TheinvoluntaryEuropeanization is Listing: buttheShip The Conservatives Won, Joachim Fritz-Vannahme A realitycheckonhopesforpeace Ukrainian Crisis? Will aNewEasternPolicyHelp End the a Dilemma ’s LeadershipRoleinEurope – Mario Telò in Europe Germany andtheFutureofSocialDemocracy Maria JoãoRodrigues Journal ofSocialDemocracy 42015 € 3,80 INTERNATIONAL QUARTERLY EDITION 1 Editorial 2 Volker Skierka The Winds of Change are Blowing in Cuba 8 Maria João Rodrigues Germany and the Future of Social Democracy in Europe 11 Mario Telò Germany’s Leadership Role in Europe – a Dilemma 15 Putin’s State 18 Gernot Erler Will a New Eastern Policy Help End the Ukrainian Crisis? A reality check on hopes for peace 21 Joachim Fritz-Vannahme The Conservatives Won, but the Ship is Listing: The involuntary Europeanization of David Cameron 25 Jens Gmeiner Right-wing Populism and the Challenge to Social Democracy:

NG|FH –The Quarterly 4| 2015 case of Scandinavia 29 Richard Meng Is Morality in Foreign Policy an Illusion? Deep embarrassment for the EU on the refugee issue There has been a flurry of activity in the Euro- pean Union during the past few months. In fact, many people would say there has been too much. More than a small dose of pessimism is beginning to make the rounds, and not just of the variety that we associate with the demagoguery of right- and left-wing populists. The Continent appears to be getting used to those rabble-rousers. One might say that they are perceived as an unavoid- able byproduct of the contradictions inherent in the process of politically integrating 28 coun- Editorial tries.After all, each of these imports its own long history and traditional identity into the novel enterprise of creating a pan-European community.What is actually at stake here, then, is the palpable loss of balance between the centrifugal forces disrupting the Union and the forces of cohesion that help maintain it.While the former are burgeoning and multiplying, the latter can be mobilized only with great diffi- culty.Although the centrifugal forces are all very different in nature, they operate in the same ominous direction. The left attacks the loss of the Union’s social qualities, while the right rejects supranational sovereignty as such. We must then add to these broad trends some more specific national centrifugal tenden- cies, including Hungary’s anti-liberal authoritarianism and England’s temptation to return to its former splendid isolation. Finally, there are fundamental cross- cutting conflicts over the issue of how to deal with the millions of refugees un- expectedly streaming in from the crisis-stricken regions on Europe’s doorstep. Even more than in previous decades, one detects a generalized feeling of regret over the lack of genuine European leadership in the member countries. Europe is seen as a piece of complex machinery that makes thousands of rules but lacks a soul that could infuse the whole with solidarity,guidance and future-oriented magnanimity. As long as that continues to be the case, political Europe will be doomed to derive its legitimacy exclusively from its ability to bestow more and more new benefits on all and sundry. In the long run that cannot turn out well. As several of the essays in this volume suggest, it will take the efforts of the strongest members of the Union to find a way out of this dilemma, and for now that means Germany and France. They will have to assume initial responsibility for supplying the most urgent public goods in the community in cases where it is clear that everyone will benefit fairly from their actions. Such goods include an effective system of economic governance with its own budget as well as a solidarity-based social policy. The latter should take seriously the basic social rights to which the EU subscribes and make sure that the people now seeking refuge in the European Union are shown the appropriate solidarity,i.e., integrated humanely and generously into the societies of all the member states.

Thomas Meyer Editor-in-Chief and Co-Publisher

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 1 Volker Skierka The Winds of Change are Blowing in Cuba

It is an equation with two big unknowns vered on January 3, 1961. The first official and a lot of little ones. If everything goes personal encounter took place barely four according to plan, early in 2017 U.S. Presi- months later, in April of 2015, at the sev- dent Barack Obama will pass the torch to enth summit meeting of the Organization either Hillary Clinton or her Republican of American States (OAS) in Panama, opponent after eight years in office. One which Cuba had been invited to attend year later, around the beginning of 2018, once again 43 years after it was expelled at political bodies in Cuba will be required by U.S. insistence. Not only was there a hand- the constitution to select a successor for shake between Obama and Castro, which the current head of state and party chief both sides characterized as a historic gest- Raúl Castro, who by then will be almost 87. ure; the two leaders also sat down for talks The latter has held the top offices in Cuba before the eyes of the global public. since 2006 when his brother Fidel fell ill. »Obviously there are still going to be In the meantime the brothers will want – deep and significant differences,« Obama indeed will be compelled – to create facts remarked at the conclusion of the summit. on the ground in the time they have left, Castro concurred, adding that »... we are ideally working with and not against each willing to discuss everything, but we need other. They will try to set the course of to be patient, very patient.« But he put on future American-Cuban relations, seeking an optimistic face and expressed his con- to reduce tensions between the two neigh- viction »that Obama is an honest man.« bors. It became evident just how serious the The new era now underway started United States was about normalizing rela- with a pre-Christmas bang on December tions with Cuba when it emerged that, just 17, 2014. Right after a representative of the before the meeting of heads of state, the United States government in Washington U.S. Department of State planned to in- let it be known that the Cuban government form Congress that it intended to remove intended to free 53 political prisoners, Cuba from the list of »state sponsors of Obama and Castro had a phone conver- terrorism«, a sort of blacklist to which the sation, following which they announced Reagan administration had assigned the simultaneously on TV the end of the old country back in 1982. By the end of May, hostility and the impending resumption of the State Department followed through. full diplomatic relations between Washing- Republicans in Congress allowed the 45- ton and Havana. »We will end an outdated day period for objections to the removal approach that, for decades, has failed to to lapse, which meant that, after 33 years, advance our interests, and instead we will there were no more obstacles in the way of begin to normalize relations between our ending Cuba’s association with the un- two countries,« Barack Obama said, and savory company of countries such as Iran, added for the benefit of the troglodytes on Syria, and Sudan. That gesture paved the both sides »the Cold War has been over for way for the resumption of diplomatic ties, a long time. I’m not interested in having and perhaps eventually an end to the eco- battles that ... started before I was born.« nomic embargo that has been in place These were the first direct talks be- against the island nation for 55 years. tween a U.S.President and a Cuban head of It is anybody’s guess when that time state since diplomatic relations were se- will come, however. At the urging of hard-

2 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 liners from the Cuban exile community, sides of the Strait of Florida will handle the the embargo was tightened sharply and Cuban-American legacy in the aftermath internationalized by the Helms-Burton of a political reset. Will they continue the Act in 1996, passed during Bill Clinton’s old ideological campaigns or act pragmati- presidency. Flouting international law and cally? What kinds of claims for the return relying on its own arbitrary judgment, the of former property will be lodged against United States arrogated to itself the right Cuba by once-exiled Cuban private citizens to impose painful sanctions on all firms and their descendants or by companies and their managers active in the American based in the United States that were expro- market that ignore the embargo and do priated in those days? The members of business with Cuba.The United States went the Cuban nomenklatura and their off- so far as threaten the German shipowning spring hardly will want to relinquish their firm Hapag-Lloyd’s vessel »MS Europa« privileges and sinecures voluntarily. That with exclusion from all U.S. ports if it is all the more true of those who perhaps should call in any Cuban ports during a labored long and hard for very little money Caribbean cruise. in order to earn a modest living for them- Fidel Castro’s victory in the Cuban selves. They may be dwelling under the Revolution on January 1, 1959, his expro- roof of a house that,55 years ago,belonged priation of American property, and his to someone – or his/her relatives – who alignment of Caribbean socialism with now resides in Miami. For decades now, communism as practiced in the former both sides have been juggling figures that Soviet Union inflicted a profound and en- continue to climb into the billions, with during insult on the rather narcissistic eco- each side claiming that the other should nomic and political elites of the superpower pay, either for economic losses or expro- to the north.Moreover,the stubborn refusal priations due to the revolution or else for of the Cuban leadership under the Castros the damages and devastation inflicted on to submit to American ideas about free- Cuba’s socialist economy by the economic dom, the liberal market economy, democ- embargo. Perhaps it would be a good idea racy, and human rights was taken highly to allow these claims to offset and then personally in Washington. So personally write them off? Or maybe the German was it taken that the author of the embargo process of reunification could set a partial act,Fidel Castro’s nephew and then-Repub- example here? It is said that some people in lican congressman Lincoln Díaz-Balart, Cuba followed that process very attentively. managed to insert into its paragraph 205a Nevertheless, its essential features were the bizarre section 7. In it the law states oriented to the Western system and the unambiguously that a lifting of the eco- jurisdiction of a parliamentary democracy nomic embargo will not be considered and free market economy. until there is a »transitional government« However ready the Cuban elite may be in Cuba in which neither Fidel nor Raúl to countenance reforms and a cautious Castro is included, and which conforms to opening to the market economy, there is the values of the parliamentary majority in one thing it will never give up: its Carib- the U.S. Congress. The latter requirement bean socialism, an authoritarian-parlia- means, among other things, that »demon- mentary-communist one-party system run strable progress« must be made toward by a patriarch or, eventually, by a political »return of or compensation for confiscated protégé whom he has molded. The latter U.S. property.« might well advocate more up-to-date, No one can predict how the successor modern,and maybe even more liberal generation to the political elites on both views and thus be able to win the sympathy

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 3 of the critical portion of the populace. In official currency for dollar exchanges, the order to gain backing during the transition, CUC or Cuban Convertible Currency.The such a leader would have to offer the fact that a parallel economy has gradually youthful populace the prospect of forging entwined itself around the entire island connections to the external world, while at like a kudzu vine is due less to the highly- the same time holding onto and devel- developed criminal imagination and ener- oping further the positive accomplish- gy of Cuba’s people than to sheer desper- ments of the revolution, such as the coun- ation plus mismanagement of the centrally- try’s exemplary educational and social wel- directed economy. Although no one would fare system. The Vice-President and de- care to admit it, the shadow economy is a signated successor to Raúl Castro, Miguel blessing nowadays.Without it, the country Díaz-Canel from Santa Clara in central would collapse. But trying to do away with Cuba, at the age of just 55, might have the it would mean a battle with a hydra-headed right stuff for such an assignment. If Cuba monster. were to have a leader who fit this descrip- To be sure, at this point the govern- tion, one might expect to see an evolution ment is making vigorous efforts to enlarge similar to that in Vietnam, China, or Myan- the private sector of the so-called cuenta mar in the middle term, although it would propistas, i.e.,those who work on their own not have the upbeat tempo typical of those account, and to grant a greater degree of places, which would hardly be a match for small-scale entrepreneurial freedom than the Cubans’ Caribbean temperament. would have been imaginable just a few years The country is caught between stag- ago. Yet what has emerged from all this, nation,retrogression,and progress.Every- aside from some good restaurants and where, people wish that something or every- lodgings in the country, is rather more thing would change, but at the same time touching and picturesque than trend-set- they hope that it won’t change ting. Even when many of these quite imag- Battle with too much or too quickly, inative small businesspeople earn good the hydra although they may keep that money and occasionally even pay taxes, desire to themselves. It is a that is far from being enough really to move paradoxical state of affairs. In addition, the country forward. By global standards they fear that they will lose their free health Cuba teeters on the edge of an economic care,social welfare benefits,and educational abyss. More than two-thirds of the pop- system, and they worry that the country ulation is under 30, with more than three- will plunge into chaos, as Eastern Europe quarters of them having been born after did after the collapse of communism. Nor the victory of the revolution on January 1, should anyone underestimate the power of 1959. They want innovation, they want corruption and the shadow economy, which freedom, they want to live like their cousins is flourishing marvelously in these times, over in Florida or in Spain, or their con- and the total revenues of which have likely temporaries in all the countries that send long since outstripped the official GDP. tourists flocking to Cuba, drawn by the There are no shortages on the black market. charm of a place where time has stood Those crop up only where economic ac- still, everything seems old-fashioned, and tivity is run by the state. One side of the genuine friendliness still prevails. The post- story is, of course, the average salary, al- revolutionary generations finally want to ways cited with pity, which amounts to modernize their country. What is lacking perhaps 20 or 30 euros a month converted. all over Cuba, whether in the large state- But the other side is that very few Cuban owned sector or the small-scale private families lack access to the dollar or the economy, is investment capital, and that

4 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 can only come from outside. But to attract cient production and marketing. And the it, there will be a political price to pay in cultivation of sugar cane, once the sole eco- addition to the interest on loans. nomic miracle of the revolution, is dead. It Digital technology offers one example. is a wonder that cigar production and ex- The antediluvian condition of the state- port still flourish. Because good business controlled Internet is typical of the many opportunities beckon in the areas of food, things that could be improved almost over- agriculture, and forestry, the powerful U.S. night with foreign capital. But it is precisely farm lobby, generally Republican-leaning, this interface between modernization and has been exerting pressure on American stagnation that exemplifies the rigidity and policy toward Cuba for two decades. The resistance shown by the party-state and shift began in the mid-nineties when security apparatuses to George Ryan, then a folksy governor of Interface between changes that threaten their Illinois who cared little about travel re- modernization hold on power. The agri- strictions, organized direct flights to Cuba and stagnation cultural sector provides with two planeloads of businessmen, mostly another striking example. from this Midwestern »redneck« state. Although its fertile soils should enable Ryan and his entourage of 500 came to pay Cuba to feed itself,the island is less and less their respects to Fidel Castro, who hence- able to do so. Farming and livestock-raising forth had new friends, while the Cubans are either quite backward or have fallen had more food to eat. Even the changes into ruin.At best, half of the available land announced by Obama came about due to is being cultivated and used, and even that lobbying by the farm bloc and agricultural in primitive ways. One reason is that the machinery lobby. other half of the land gradually has been Once Cuba was removed from the list overgrown by impenetrable, thorny scrub of states that sponsor terrorism, the coun- that keeps spreading unchecked. Besides try had easier access to international loans. that, despite state incentives, young Cubans Cubans have also been encouraged by would rather do anything than become Obama’s announcement that he would get campesinos. This leads to a state of affairs around the embargo by issuing additional in which this extremely fertile island has to special exemptions easing Cuba’s access to import nearly 80 % of its food every year, urgently needed construction materials, mainly from the United States, and must agricultural equipment, and infrastructure. pay cash in advance even for that. For years In the meantime the American government now, U.S. presidents have allowed food also has loosened travel restrictions even exports under a standing exemption from more for U.S. citizens headed to Cuba. the embargo. It has increased the cap on the value of To raise agricultural production to a souvenirs from the Caribbean island from level at which the nation could feed itself $ 100 to $ 400 and will even allow the and to avoid letting a large portion of the previously-banned import of cigars and harvest – already meager enough – rot on rum for personal use. Furthermore, the its way to the consumer, Cuba urgently government has quadrupled the limit on needs people and machinery. The infra- remittances to Cubans from $ 500 to $ 2000 structure is antediluvian. Agricultural ve- per quarter. hicles, trucks, roads, warehouses (including As early as the first few months of some with refrigeration), slaughterhouses, 2009, shortly after taking office, Obama merchandise management systems, and was already proclaiming a new strategy distribution centers are all lacking. In short, toward the countries of »America’s former Cuba needs everything that enables effi- backyard,« Latin America, which was then

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 5 in the midst of a lurch to the left. Of course, trast to other Latin American countries, six years were to pass before the handshake only half of Cuba’s population is Catholic. in Panama. Yet it is not as though there However, the Church in Cuba by now has were no communications during the inter- achieved such a remarkable degree of vening period. There were ongoing secret authority even over the powerful that it talks at many different levels between has almost become a second political par- Havana and Washington.As we now know, ty in the country alongside the Commu- the Vatican, in the persons of Pope John nists. Its discreet pastoral activities have Paul II, Benedict XVI, and Pope Francis, not been without effect even in politics, played a crucial mediating role in those when human rights issues are at stake. In negotiations. The latter, especially, deserves that sense it is to some extent even a sub- the lion’s share of the credit for the break- stitute for the weak opposition, which, if through.Although Fidel Castro was raised anything, has lost some of its influence in by his mother as a Catholic and got a Jesuit the wake of the Panama handshake. education, after the victory of the revo- As has long been the case, the other lution in 1959 he pronounced a revolutio- and surely more important factor in sta- nary anathema on the clergy on account of bilizing the regime is the military. Here, its support of the Batista dictatorship, too, despite all differences, the Castros throwing all priests out of the country. But assumed a defensive posture vis-à-vis the then, as he aged and had to confront his United States after the col- country’s struggle for survival following lapse of the Soviet Union. Important factor the collapse of the Soviet empire,it seemed Ever since 1996, at the in stabilizing to him an opportune time to return him- urging of Raúl Castro, the regime: self and his country to the bosom of the high-ranking military of- the military Church.That move now seems to have paid ficers on both sides have dividends for both the Castro brothers and been meeting occasionally for a discreet Cuba at large. exchange of views, essentially ignoring On the occasion of Pope John Paul II’s the Helms-Burton Act. These gatherings of visit to Cuba in January of 1998, Castro retired American four-star generals with reopened the long-closed doors of the active officers of equal rank from the Cuban churches to Cuba’s faithful,also quickly ex- Armed Forces (FAR) in Havana were or- panding the range of political operations ganized by a think tank in Washington entrusted to the diplomatically skilled known as the Center for Defense In- Cardinal Jaime Ortega. Fourteen years formation (CDI), now merged with the later the German Pope Benedict XVI re- Project on Government Oversight. Such turned the favor, honoring him and his trans-border issues as combatting the drug brother with a visit to Cuba and a moving trade and terrorism and dealing with re- private audience for the Castro family.And fugees came up for informal discussion. Fidel’s fellow Jesuit, Pope Francis, has But the main focus was on fostering a re- announced that he will visit the island in lationship of mutual trust between the two September, 2015. This will be the third visit sides for the day when Fidel Castro might by a Pope to Cuba within just seventeen step down. The Americans’ chief concern years, which may already set a new record. was to dispel Cuban fears of U.S. military After an audience with the Pope in the Vati- intervention. Meanwhile, the Cubans ma- can recently, the head of state and atheist naged to convince the Americans that one Raúl Castro proclaimed himself so im- part of Latin America’s largest armed force pressed by the Argentinian, that he even had been detached for service in agri- hinted he might rejoin the Church. In con- culture. Raúl Castro’s slogan for the opera-

6 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 tion, »beans not cannons,« expressed its United States. For some time now there goal of ensuring the population’s food has been a busy revolving door in Havana supply after the cutoff of deliveries from as Russians,Chinese,Canadians,Spaniards, the Eastern Bloc, which once fed Cuba. Italians, Central and South Americans, and Another part of the FAR began to re- especially Brazilians flock to Cuba with structure itself successfully as a major money, know-how, and hunger for profits. tourism enterprise, thus taking on the task Taking advantage of the cover given by of obtaining hard currency for the depleted Obama’s announcement,French President treasury.In this way too,the FAR helped to François Hollande also lost no time trav- ensure the regime’s survival. In any case eling to the island. Even the Turkish presi- the Pentagon and the CIA were later able dent Recep Erdogan, who is convinced to report that the Cuban Armed Forces no that Muslims and not the Catholic Co- longer posed a threat to the hemisphere. lumbus discovered America, surprised his But just as before, the FAR is the crucial colleague Castro with the pious wish to stabilizing factor for Raúl Castro in do- have a mosque built in Cuba. mestic matters. One consequence of the For its part, the European Union, fol- período especial, the Special Period of a lowing in the wake of the United States, »wartime economy in peacetime« that is hoping not to miss out on the Cuban commenced during the nineties and en- connection. For over 20 years the EU had dures to this day, was that more and more gotten itself deeper and deeper into a po- military men have been filtering into civi- litical blind alley by adhering to the »com- lian political institutions. Generals are mon standpoint« advocated by former now taking over key ministries,a tendency Spanish Prime Minister José Maria Aznar, that has accelerated since former defense who maintained close ties to the Cuban minister Raúl Castro assumed the presi- exile community in Miami. That stand- dential scepter. The trend continues even point was defended with special vigor by today and has led Bernd Wulffen, former the then-foreign minister of Germany, German ambassador in Havana, to con- and some Eastern Euro- clude that we are witnessing a stealthy, pean politicians after the arrest of 75 oppo- gradual drift toward a military dictator- sition figures in Cuba in 2003. Demo- ship sui generis. Such a regime would be cratization of the country was made into prepared to guarantee the continuity of the a precondition for economic, political, system once the Castro brothers have left and cultural support by the EU. As Ger- the scene. The military would also be pre- many’s Eastern Policy and the CSCE pro- pared to respond in case this or the next cess should have taught us long ago, the U.S. administration expects too much from proper approach is just the reverse. But the newly launched rapprochement. now, suddenly alarmed by Obama and At any rate, the Cubans today are open spurred on by the Netherlands and France, to whatever others have to offer them.With the EU’s Foreign Policy Representative its eleven million inhabitants, Federica Mogherini hurried to see Castro, Interesting Cuba is already an interesting offering him assistance in carrying out eco- middle-term middle-term market that has nomic and political reforms. Raúl Castro market enormous tourism potential. must be pleased with all this, because it What is more, with its well- makes him a good deal less dependent on educated and cheap labor force it is highly conditions set by the United States. suited to be the workbench of and entre- And how has Fidel,the one-time máxi- preneurial springboard into the whole mo líder, responded? Now 88 and in poor Caribbean basin including the southern health, he has been put out to pasture in

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 7 the Siboney quarter on Havana’s west side. not mean I reject a peaceful solution to He watched on TV as Obama offered him conflicts or the dangers of war,« he wrote and his brother a kind of Christmas gift. on January 27 this year in a letter to the But then it took him five weeks to bestow dear »comrades« of the Cuban Student his patriarchal blessing upon this turning Association (FEU). The only thing that point in global politics, and then only now appears to be a bulwark preserving an with convoluted words. »I don’t trust the aging revolution is the Helms-Burton Act. policy of the United States, nor have I ex- But of course it does not have to last for- changed a word with them, but this does ever.

Volker Skierka is, among his other activities, the author of the book, Fidel Castro: A Biography which has been translated into several languages. He is also the co-author (with Stephan Lamby) of the ARD film Der ewige Revo- lutionär. He lives in Hamburg.

© Bernd Ebsen [email protected]

Maria João Rodrigues Germany and the Future of Social Democracy in Europe

Essentially, the project of social democracy market, just to mention the most impor- is to make sure that unrestricted citizen- tant social democratic achievements. ship for all is made compatible with the Even today this founding principle of dynamics of a market economy.Within that social democracy has lost nothing of its economic order, each and every citizen is validity, although new kinds of challenges to be guaranteed the same economic,social, make it necessary to come up with different and political rights. Here it is crucial to problem-solving approaches. One such recall that this project came to fruition at challenge is to be found in globalization, a a time in which a paradigm shift in the phenomenon that has been proceeding evaluation of social inequality was already apace since the nineteenth century. Today, underway. The poverty of any given indi- social democracy can be implemented vidual cannot be explained satisfactorily effectively only if nation-states can reach by attributing it solely to that person’s fail- agreement about a broad range of trans- ings, an explanation dear to the hearts of border political instruments. Such multi- conservatives. Poverty is also the outcome lateral collaboration is the only source of problems caused by the system in which from which standards might emerge that it arises. Hence, it is important to create might be capable of regulating and pre- conditions that make possible greater serving the global financial system, inter- equality of outcome or at least greater national trade and its cash flows, and the equality of opportunity. labor market with its migratory movements, This paradigm shift in the way that as well as labor and environmental stand- poverty and inequality were understood ards, and intellectual property regimes. laid the foundation for the creation of the When we consider the current political social welfare state, a redistributive tax agenda of the United Nations (Millennium system, and growing regulation of the free Development Goals, Sustainable Develop-

8 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 ment Goals, climate change accords,WTO European Union in the wake of the recent agreements) or that of the G20 (regulation financial crisis, especially that of the euro- of financial markets, strategies for growth zone.From that point on, and development), it quickly becomes ap- the policy of trying to The demise of the parent that the social democratic project rescue the euro and Euro- win-win situation has fallen far short of achieving its aims pean integration has led in the European Union. The conservative to an increase in social inequality both parties argue that national states have a within and among the individual member limited sphere of responsibility: adapting states. to globalization and enacting the structu- Conservative parties like to shift the ral reforms needed to do so. If the con- blame for these trends onto those citizens servative viewpoint were and member states that allegedly have not Social democrats to prevail, national states tried hard enough to address their own must fight for would have to dismantle problems. Here too, the social democratic their own agenda the social welfare state perspective necessitates a second look at and rescind many market the usual conservative explanation. What regulations.As a rule,such measures would if citizens or states make major efforts to lead to greater social inequality both within extricate themselves from the tough spot and among states. Social democrats cannot they are in, but fail? This may happen for evade the discussion about necessary re- any number of reasons: They may not have forms. They must acknowledge that changes access to the loans they need to make cru- are necessary to meet the challenges of cial investments, or they may lack the globalization. But they must fight for their financial leeway to carry through the in- own agenda, which would focus on impro- vestments they have already begun, or ving the economy’s growth potential, en- perhaps they are no longer able to compete hancing sustainability, and reversing social on global markets,lack access to health care inequalities.A reform plan of this kind will services, or find that their most talented have to set aside the requisite investment young people have left the country to pur- funds for future-oriented development. sue better career and life opportunities Social democracy always has been a abroad. And what if all of these problems crucial source of ideas and impetus for occur at the same time? European integration, yet it also has helped In fact, this very scenario has played to erect protective barriers against fluctu- out in several regions and countries of ating global forces and constraints. Social Europe,especially those in which the euro- democratic ideas have contributed much zone crisis has hit hardest. Under these to the gradual creation of an open yet still circumstances, the social democratic pro- regulated European market, a common ject can no longer be achieved. Almost in- trade policy within the EU, as well as a evitably, then, political support for social shared framework for European models of democracy will evaporate in precisely those social policy and European institutions regions and countries. designed to broker common, trans-border So what can social democrats do in interests. Of course, in this process the countries where they still participate in social democratic model always had to government, at least for the time being? To confront other political approaches, but in begin with, of course, they should fight for the main its impact on all participating their own agenda, and that of their elec- countries has proven to be positive. toral base in their home countries.But that However, this win-win situation eva- alone is no longer enough. Sooner or later, porated for all the member states of the the decline of social democracy in other

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 9 member states will ultimately lead to the structures by supporting reforms and dismantling of social, financial, and en- investments while sheltering member states vironmental standards across the entire from economic shock waves. All this pre- European internal market. Eventually, supposes enhanced coordination and con- these upheavals will undermine the social solidation of taxation in Europe. welfare state, regulation of market compe- Unquestionably, an evolution of this tition, and higher social standards even in kind cannot be achieved unless demo- countries in which social democratic parties cratic legitimacy is enhanced and citizens still have some influence on government. are more fully included. What arguments For that reason social democrats in Europe might social democrats marshal,especially must take joint action. Social democracy in Germany, to gain broader support will not survive on this continent unless among the voters? I have sketched out a European integration is pushed to a higher few of the central lines of argument in the stage. Thus, the social democratic agenda following list: calls for the expansion and rebalancing of Q The euro’s exchange rate is an espe- the economic and fiscal union combined cially important issue for Germany. with a deepened and more fully democra- Q Germany’s economy benefits more tized political union. These considerations than others from the European single are especially important in Germany, the market. cradle of social democracy. Q The German economy would suffer If social democracy is to survive, the if Germany were surrounded by countries need for fair treatment of all member nati- in recession. ons within the European Union ought to Q The German welfare state system suffice to convince social democrats across could come under pressure if (internal all national boundaries that a change of European) migration continues to increase. course in the eurozone is urgently neces- Q High unemployment figures and sary. The eurozone should see to it that social tensions in other countries under- policymaking responsibilities in the finan- mine the political acceptance of European cial markets, the economy, and social and integration generally. political matters are coordinated, not allow- Q That, in turn, weakens Europe’s co- ed to drift apart as they are now. That would hesion and thus its geostrategic influence. entail not merely the full implementation Q Europeans will have to close ranks to of the banking union, but also intensified deal successfully with growing external coordination of economic policies designed challenges. to boost demand, as well as the develop- We need new lines of argument to ment of a broadened, tax-supported Euro- insure the future of social democracy in pean financial policy. This new financial Europe. Europe needs a New Deal, which resource could facilitate the merging of can only be negotiated by social democrats.

Maria João Rodrigues is Professor of European Economic Policies at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (IEE-ULB), a special adviser on EU institutions,and vice-president of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats group in the European Parliament. [email protected]

10 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 Mario Telò Germany’s Leadership Role in Europe – a Dilemma

After tough negotiations carried on in a too, one can speak of the compromise as tense atmosphere, the European summit a victory of politics. held in Brussels on July 12 finally yielded Third, the contents of the agreement three political accomplishments as well as give evidence of willingness to compro- some worrying reports. First, the compro- mise and an inclination to exercise self- mise between strict adherence to the letter restraint in the face of a high-drama situ- of the treaty on one hand and solidarity ation. It is extremely important that Wolf- toward the Greek people on the other, gang Schäuble’s proposal for a temporary avoided a Grexit. Moreover, the political Greek exit was not approved. Even though nature of the compromise underscored it might have seemed reasonable from an the fact that the common currency is economic standpoint, that option would something more than what Robert Mun- have been a political wrong turn for Euro- dell called it: an »optimal currency area.« pe. We should also regard it as a positive Instead, it is a political project; hence, sign that the Greek extremists and the Euro- Greece’s exit from it would have been a pean populists took a drubbing. Greece political and geopolitical error. A political will be able to remain in the eurozone and decision in favor of »more Europe« was didn’t have to accept humiliating terms to taken in the face of two kinds of risks: the do so,such as the proposed Greek Guaran- escalating danger of internal disintegration tee Fund, required to be headquartered in and a weakening of the EU’s ties due to in- Luxembourg, would have been. ternational factors. The former risk, inter- Obviously,the Greek crisis has not been nal to the EU, stems from Euro-skeptical put to rest, but a certain degree of financial movements in nearly all countries and a stability has been achieved, with several possible Brexit in 2017; the latter encom- new investments from abroad in the works. passes a rising tide of migration,a menacing Furthermore, negotiations to restructure »Islamic State«, and Putin’s power politics. Greece’s enormous debt burden are being Even though it still appears uncertain conducted in the public eye. whether the Greek bailout will work, it is On the other hand, there are some po- an important step in the right direction. litical dangers that must be identified. A Second, the compromise was achieved series of important editorials and inter- thanks to the pronounced multilateralism views in newspapers such as Le Monde, operating within European institutions. Corriere della Sera, and The Guardian (the The primary role of institutions was re- last by Jürgen Habermas) have lamented inforced because the alternative route – the collapse of mutual trust in the Union. bilateral negotiations between Angela Mer- At fault for this is not only the Greek go- kel and Alexis Tsipras and the technocratic vernment, which cynically applied game leadership in the European Central Bank – theory for months on end, but also the was not taken. To be sure, Mario Draghi German government, which (Habermas pursued an expansive monetary policy claims) »gambled away in one night all the held in high esteem by the international political capital that a better Germany had community (quantitative easing), but it accumulated in half a century.« would be a mistake to refer to him as the I would not speak of a collapse but »the EU’s most prominent political leader,« rather of a decline that, without serious as many media sources have done. Here countermeasures, might become very

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 11 dangerous indeed. For historical reasons However, his idea of a »core Europe,« ini- Germany, the pre-eminent power in the tially expressed in 1994 in the so-called EU, requires political trust much more Schäuble-Lamers paper, displays the small- than, say, Brazil does in Mercosur, Indo- minded mentality characteristic of the nesia in ASEAN, or South Africa in the Bonn Republic and is wholly unsuited to African Union. Germany’s present role in the EU. To reach the desired turning-point, we Schäuble is certainly well aware that cannot avoid a courageous and innovative Germany’s history precludes it from as- international, pluralistic debate. When in suming a classic leadership role in Europe. just six years a country has granted the In this regard he is correct. But it is im- major portion of a 250 billion euro loan to possible for Germany to evade the new Greece and in addition agreed to another regional and global responsibilities. They loan for 87 billion, but is still accused by require a new interpretation of concepts most countries in Europe and even the mo- such as civil power and constructive hege- derate press (e.g., The New York Times) of mony, precisely to avoid concentration on exercising dictatorial power that humilia- power relationships alone.Neither a »trans- tes loan recipients,one has to conclude that fer union« nor a mutualization of national the marketing of German policies has fai- debts would be a viable alternative. Ger- led. What is to blame for this – the propa- many has to take seriously the impli- ganda of Yanis Varoufakis and Alexis cations of its leadership role on several Tsipras or the striking images of social dis- fronts. The numerous advantages for the locations caused by austerity policies in Federal Republic of a common currency Greece? Are we perhaps witnessing an in- need to be explained to domestic audi- ternational conspiracy against Germany ences again and again. Furthermore, the or is the Federal Republic simply incapable EU must be strengthened considerably as of »selling« its leading role in Europe and an economic and political union, which the world? would entail a further delegation of sover- Germany’s bad image in Europe and eignty in matters affecting the economy the world is a huge political problem not as well as foreign and immigration po- only for Germany but also for the EU. licy. These steps represent the only way to Worse still is the fact that ’s legitimize Germany’s role as leader and declining popularity outside Germany is offer new hope to our fellow citizens of accompanied by a growing, mutual do- Europe. mestic wave of criticism, in which she has Without making this politically funda- been branded as »too generous« not only mental decision, the EU and Germany will by the populists and the Alternative for reach a dead end. In point of fact, the »un- Germany (AfD), but even by her fellow willing hegemon,« as The CDU/CSU deputies and influential eco- Economist dubbed Ger- A democratic nomists. many, will generally be re- and constructive Given this double-barreled criticism, garded as a dictatorial hegemony it makes political sense that the Federal power by the public, even Chancellor should receive support from if that judgment is unjustified in many and the SPD. For Europe ways. The road from the current sad, ne- and the Federal Republic it would be im- gative image toward a constructive, self- portant politically to deepen the splits be- confident leadership role will be long and tween Merkel and the hardliners. To be complex, but it remains open. Here in sure, Wolfgang Schäuble must be respec- Europe we need a broad, many-faceted ted as a competent, pro-Europe minister. discussion about this historic challenge,

12 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 and it should begin in Germany. A demo- To make it more likely that such proj- cratic and constructive hegemony is, in ects will be accepted,they should be imple- fact, the very opposite of domination and mented in the context of partnerships. relations based exclusively on power. More cultural and scientific joint ventures Three things are necessary for a con- and networks of experts should be funded, structive and democratic leadership role. even if German institutions do not play the For one, many leading scholars (such as leading role in them.A variety of programs Robert Owen Keohane, a former president should be initiated that will encourage of the American Political Science Asso- Germans to move abroad and vice versa. ciation) believe that a true leading power Many more language courses should be should offer the peoples of Europe »inter- offered for free to publicize the diversity national common goods,« just as the Unit- and democratic vitality of German civil ed States did for a Europe in ruins with the society. ten-year-long Marshall Plan (1947-1957) Third, it is indeed correct to respect and for Germany in 1953 when restruc- EU rules,yet that alone does not constitute turing that country’s debt.Financial stabil- a European policy. In the wake of seven ity, made possible by the European stabil- years of crisis, it is certainly time to reform ity mechanism and other solidarity-based the EU’s economic policy control system, measures, is certainly necessary, but obvi- but deliberate steps must also be taken to- ously insufficient.The Juncker Plan,which wards a political union. provides for an investment of 315 billion On June 15, the five EU-level presi- euros, offers a good opportunity: A Euro- dents presented their plan to complete the pean job-creation plan to spur qualitative economic and monetary union.According growth could finally prove that the Ger- to that plan, institutional changes are man model is compatible with economic needed to strengthen the eurozone: The growth in the EU. Euro-group should have a permanent presi- Secondly, if one pays heed to intel- dent, a European treasury should have its lectuals such as Antonio Gramsci, the deve- own budget, and the democratic legitimacy lopment of constructive hegemony fea- of the eurozone should be enhanced, e.g., tures a central role for culture and the life by giving the EU Parliament a say in bud- of the mind as well as respect for the other getary-policy coordination. nations’ perceptions and efforts to achieve Certainly, France is the premier partner consensus. Why was this possible in the in a stronger EU leadership, but only under USA during the 30 »golden years« after the two conditions. First, Germany should take Second World War (on a global level), and seriously the important speech delivered why shouldn’t it be possible in Germany by François Hollande on July 14, which now on a continental scale? advocated an economic government for Germany has great cultural potential. the eurozone. But the French would also Admittedly, the German Federal Govern- have to accept fully the implications of that ment, the states, municipalities, univer- position.It would entail that they surrender sities as well as private and party-affiliated aspects of their national economic sover- foundations and the Goethe Institute in- eignty, something that has been a taboo vest substantial sums of money to make topic for the French public so far. Second, German culture better known abroad. the age of the two-nation directorate is Nevertheless, we have to recognize that over. Other important countries, such as this is still not enough for Europe’s leading Italy, Spain, Poland, or the Benelux states, country. Additional shrewd investments should be capable of playing an active role are needed to enhance this soft power. within a collegial leadership group.

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 13 An institutional reform of the EU is on proposals. Only the SPD can convince the agenda. The measures that have been Europeans that its alliance with the ordo- carried out thus far are insufficient, while liberal CDU does not entail a commit- intergovernmentalism, which has become ment to neoliberalism, but rather to a so- more and more important, has drawn in- cial and innovative vision of the European creasing criticism. Considering the major future. financial challenges facing the EU,govern- How might it accomplish that work of ment-level negotiations in the European persuasion? For one thing, it could com- Council certainly are necessary.In some in- municate certain ideas more effectively: stances, intergovernmentalism and supra- especially the fact that Europe, too, bene- nationality are closely linked to one an- fits when Germany upgrades its internal other. On the other hand, the new »Merkel market, raises the minimum wage, and method« of economic governance must counteracts the tendency toward a dual be complemented by a more central role labor market. Moreover, it is well-posi- for the Commission and by multilateral – tioned to explain to the German public not hierarchical – coordination. As Mar- why it should heed the warnings of the tin Schulz, Matteo Renzi and other have European Commission that a foreign trade urged, the European Parliament should be surplus of 7 % is incompatible with a leader- strengthened to enhance overall legiti- ship role in Europe.At the EU level, it could macy. also create a vision of how economic power The SPD has an historic opportunity to and competitiveness might be combined make its mark in European policymaking; with social cohesion, such that the Euro- indeed, among all political parties it alone pean social market economy can hold its is capable of pursuing a plausible third way own against China, the USA, and other between leftist-Keynesian rhetoric and the rivals. Is the SPD prepared to concentrate moribund austerity policy associated with and summon up the requisite intellectual Schäuble. The SPD should de- energies? The role velop a realistic alternative that In contrast to what has happened un- of the SPD emphasizes policies of genuine der Merkel and Schäuble today, the »Ger- qualitative growth and employ- man model« should be presented to our ment in Europe as well as a political union, 500 million fellow citizens of Europe with all to be built on a supranational – and not a clear message: that it represents the opti- only national – European and economic mal combination of the social welfare state, policy. That is the only way in which the competitiveness, worker co-determination, European Socialist Party, currently paraly- environmental policy, sustainable energy zed by internal feuds and its considerable policy, technological innovation, modern credibility gap in the debtor countries, could educational and administrative systems, launch a revival of its political fortunes. a dynamic research policy, gender justice Many other parties as well as social and and equal rights regardless of gender or intellectual forces could have a hand in the sexual orientation. renewal of the European Socialist bloc. For another, the SPD could work out a In Germany it makes sense to support realistic path as the core of a Common the Grand Coalition. However, that should European Foreign Policy, going beyond not mean that the SPD abandons the clichés of the »timid Teutons« on one hand goals of and : while, on the other, avoiding the arrogance i.e., to influence the Federal Republic’s typical of stronger countries.In light of the international role by reasserting its own dangerous international conflicts that we fundamental values and offering concrete currently face, Europe cannot play the role

14 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 of a big Switzerland. Instead, it needs to the necessary means, all to be attained by lead the way toward a new regional and coordinating the capabilities of the indi- international policy featuring regional vidual EU countries. This approach would integration,global multilateralism,and the be more suited to the German leadership power to engage in peacekeeping and peace role and provide more credibility to a new enforcement, including having available phase of civil power.

Mario Telò is Professor of International Relations at the Université libre de Bruxelles and the LUISS University in Rome.

[email protected]

Gert Weisskirchen Putin’s State

Russia annexed Crimea in February of to live by the rule of law? In the speeches that 2014. Barely a year later, the Russian Presi- were delivered before Nemtsov’s funeral, dent said he had brought the formerly one could discern a certain pervasive tone. Ukrainian province back to its proper The struggle between European and Eura- home. Is he the master of hybrid warfare? sian ways of life has flared up again as Is he the official advocate for the interests Russia seeks to define its identity.The divi- of the Russians in Crimea? This year, on ding line between the two alternatives has March 19, tens of thousands of people been well-defined for quite a while: it runs fêted Vladimir Putin in Red Square. He between democracy and autocracy. With told the applauding crowd that Russians the re-founding of the Russian Federation and Ukrainians were »one people«. What in 1991, it seemed as though the path to- sort of turning point are we witnessing ward Europeanization had become irre- in East-West relations? Crimea was a gift versible.However,a strong civil society given by Khrushchev to the Ukrainian never emerged to overcome the ills of cor- Soviet Republic in 1954,based on a decision ruption and the national predisposition to reached by the leadership of the Soviet anticipatory obedience toward whatever Union.In 1994 Russia accorded recognition power managed to fuse itself with the to that transfer under international law. state. Thus – once again – the entrenched Vladimir Putin loves Russian history.Does predilection for introversion trumped the he see himself as someone who wants to forward-looking forces of transformation. correct a deeply-felt historical injustice? Even the compulsion to modernize, Does he think that he has a mission to put recognized as necessary,has so far been in- the Russian idea into practice? capable of easing Russia’s way into global A few hundred meters from where the modernity. Instead, the power elite has national fête was held, Boris Nemtsov was reversed course. But there has been a mis- gunned down from behind. So far the in- match between Russia’s old role as a hege- vestigation has turned up no leads. Will monic superpower dependent on super- any light ever penetrate the dense thicket annuated insignias of military might, and of absurdities surrounding the state’s claim the grass-roots-based, inwardly felt yearn-

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 15 ing for an autonomous life free from super- with a Western outlook know that they are fluous anxieties and crippling hatred. Has still a minority. And they also know that a the leaden gloom lifted that settled over truncated, authoritarian-technocratic ver- so many Russians in the wake of Boris sion of modernization is beckoning from Nemtsov’s death? How will society handle just south of their Far East, one that has attempts to attribute meaning to the death blocked the channels of participation and of this former star of the political stage engagement. Many of those who are on in Boris Yeltsin’s Russia as the country »our side« fall victim to this temptation. grapples with its own future? President Both points of view claim to understand Putin has given hints about how the deed how the strands of tradition influence the should be interpreted. Even before investi- way in which Russians understand them- gations by police and public prosecutors selves. They are grounded on historical had begun, he wanted to point officials in experiences. The basis of their legitimacy the right direction. He claimed that the evidently shifted when the Russian Fede- murder should be understood as a provo- ration entered the world of states a quarter cation. But who is the agent provocateur? century ago. What were his intentions? Whose interests A Russian future that followed the were served by Nemtsov’s death and what Nemtsov model would be premised on were those interests? These presidential Russia’s accession to European-style mod- language-signals may serve to complete ernity. By contrast, Putin’s version of con- the picture of a »directed democracy« that temporary Russia features limited openings underlies Putin’s understanding of the accompanied by autocratic surveillance. state. The country’s majority is supposed The two viewpoints are starkly opposed: to realize that the man in charge knows closure as the strategy of imperial thinking what he is doing. You can rely on power. versus openness as the approach of a It will pursue any agent provocateur re- trans-European mentality. The seed has lentlessly regardless of his origins, domes- sprouted.A professional assassin shot Boris tic or foreign. Nemtsov in the deep shadows of the This is the way demonizing images Kremlin walls. The other Russia was sup- arise. Immediately after Nemtsov’s death, posed to be executed along with him – Vyacheslav A. Nikonov, a member of the the Russia of openness, democracy, and State Duma and leading thinker in the liberality. Anyone who was acquainted foundation Russki Mir, spoke of a murder with the murder victim will remember with religious significance. The alliance him as a fighter for European values. This between secular and spiritual powers man, who was gifted in analytic thought, was to be given symbolic reinforcement. sharp as a tack, and tough, was able to Further insinuations from Kremlin circles expose the ills that plagued Russia’s tran- created the impression that dark powers sition from a communist dictatorship to outside of Russia may have been arrayed Putin’s regime of directed democracy, against the inner core of Russian power, which is gradually becoming more and thus confirming the demonizing images. more of a farce. He was aware of the Rus- At the Sakharov Center an alternative sian president’s lust for power, since both picture of Russian reality was presented he and Putin had been advanced by Boris before Nemtsov’s funeral. Here European Yeltsin so they could prepare themselves Russia was assembled – a nation that to assume leadership roles in the state. would like to form a new partnership with Did the ex-KGB man get the promo- the European West. The goal is to develop tion because he alone could offer an iron- a participatory form of democracy. Those clad guarantee that the first president of

16 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 Russia would not be punished for corrup- the terrors of the past. Because he thought tion after he left office? Corruption and he could see that Putin was leading Russia contempt, the true insignias of Russian into ruin, he wanted to offer the counter- power, have fostered a climate of fear ever image of an alternative future for his coun- since Putin’s second term in office began. try.He was certainly aware of how difficult Indeed, the longer he rules, the more pal- it is to make the power of civilized reason pable the fear becomes. Whether this exe- prevail over the madness of nationalism. cution was ordered or whether someone He tried to set an example through the anticipated that the order soon would be clarity of his own thought, the openness of given, the point was to incite terror. Putin’s his character, and the resoluteness of his path as President of the Russian Federation courage. And he knew which failures, in has been marked by a bloody trail of poli- the wake of the Soviet Union’s demise, tical murders.These started with the death might be laid at his doorstep. For far too of Sergei Yushchenko, a decent social liberal many Russians, the leap into wild-west- who wanted to follow a prudent but deci- style capitalism ended in a drama of down- sive course of internal reform in the Duma. ward social mobility. The majority sought Having been a military man previously, a way out, spurred on by the growing rage he understood the dangers that the war in often felt by people who believe that they Chechnya posed for Russia’s internal deve- have been hoodwinked. lopment. In April, 2003 he was gunned Behind the glittering facade of this down.Scarcely a year passed without some world, a narrow elite has walled itself off. It pesky opponent of Putin meeting with an guards the treasures plundered during the unnatural death.What dark logic is behind transition from the communist to the capi- this violence? talist systems, defending them with mafia- Quite apart from any conspiracy theory, style violence. The clashing tendencies of it seems clear what impact this coldblooded Russian society give rise to anxiety. Every operation upon the heart of the Russian murder committed against political dissi- political system is supposed to have: assas- dents serves to deepen the divisions. Intra- sination as censorship. Critical journalists, state enemies lists attest to power. The per- politicians who will not kowtow to Putin’s son who assumes the right to control the regime, civil society groups – all are to be rights of others counts as sovereign. By intimidated. Internal enemies have been contrast, traitors are those who insist upon identified.Anyone who opposes the rule of their right to have rights and who lay au- directed democracy and makes use of the tonomous claims to freedom. That is the constitutionally guaranteed reason why Anna Politkovskaya had to die. Assassination right to free expression will She wanted to expose the lies behind Ram- as censorship be threatened. On February zan Kadyrov’s rise to power in Chechnya. 10, 2015 Boris Nemtsov told Boris Nemtsov’s goal was to strengthen the Russian news agency Sobesednik: »I the pro-modernization forces in Russia, fear that Putin is going to kill me.« He was and he hoped to achieve it by convinced that Putin had given the green cooperating with the Euro- Russia’s Euro- light for the war in Ukraine.The annexation pean West. For those reasons pean Future of Crimea appeared to him to be a blue- he saw the Ukraine as a bridge print for the aggression in eastern Ukraine. to a future of partnership. He was less in- And he talked openly about things that,for fluenced by geopolitical ambitions and him, were more than mere surmises. He more inclined to reinforce cross-border wanted a European Russia capable of re- ties. His plea for a new kind of mod- lying on its own energies to free itself from ernization put him fundamentally at odds

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 17 with Putin’s conception of the state. Boris participate in it. The European West can Nemtsov became an internal antagonist also take part, more energetically than it because he had begun to develop an alter- has hitherto. There is no reason for West- native image of Russia’s path. ern participants to be overbearing and What will happen to Russia in the after- smug.One could decode Russia’s domestic math of this shock? Will the opportunity troubles as the mirror image of the risks for reflection offer a way out of the coun- inherent in Western modernity. Did the try’s internal divisions, perhaps leading to murderer want his shots to kill the yearn- an open, self-critical discussion? All over ing for a different Russia too? This murder Russia there are civil-society groups wait- will not culminate in despair.Russia’s Euro- ing for this to happen and prepared to pean future cannot be assassinated.

Gert Weisskirchen is a former Member of Parliament (Deutscher ) during which time he was also the SPD parlia- mentary contingent’s spokesman on foreign policy.In addition,until 2008 he was Personal Representative of the Chairman-in-Office of the OSCE on Combating anti-Semitism. [email protected]

Gernot Erler Will a New Eastern Policy Help End the Ukrainian Crisis? A reality check on hopes for peace

The time has come to take stock. We are ginning of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014. still in the midst of the most profound For years, numerous official documents crisis in relations between the West and described ties between the two as a Russia since the end of the Cold War. »Strategic Partnership.« Fighting continues and people are still Even if all thirteen points of the pack- dying in eastern Ukraine – civilians as age of measures agreed to in Minsk on well as armed combatants, right in the February 12, 2015 were considered to have middle of Europe.We are still preoccupied been implemented – and currently that with crisis management; nevertheless, would be a wildly optimistic, best-case as- discussion has long since begun about sumption – it would be a profound illusion matters that extend beyond the day-to- to think that the status quo ante could be day. We had become accustomed to a restored. Minsk embodies a roadmap to a European peace system that served its diplomatic and political solution to the purpose. We had come to rely on the as- Ukrainian conflict, but it brackets out the sumption that, despite a few differences Crimean problem for the time being. And of opinion, clashing interests, and con- it cannot possibly heal the wounds that flicts, the relationship between the West have been inflicted already on the body of and the Russian Federation would conti- the European peace system by shattered nue to be characterized by partnership trust and what appears to be an unlimited and trust. That period in the relationship appetite for confrontation. A different po- endured for 23 years, from the breakup of litical process definitely would be required the Soviet Union in 1991 until the be- to accomplish those things.

18 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 In this context, a few actors and ob- partnership based on trust between the servers are staking their hopes on a kind of West and the Russian Federation. Close second phase of Eastern and detente poli- political, economic, and social ties devel- cies. The achievements of those policies oped between the EU and Moscow. It was in the 70s and 80s are still remembered no secret that the presidency of Vladimir fondly in all quarters. They led us out of Putin imbued the Russian political elite the Cold War. After Konrad Adenauer’s with an increasingly critical view of the policy of integration into the West had West’s treatment of Russia. Nevertheless, restored trust in Germany among its West- Russia’s blatant violation of the rules in ern partners, the Eastern and detente poli- annexing Crimea and its ongoing military cies of Willy Brandt and did the support of separatists in eastern Ukraine same with our Eastern neighbors, especially came as a nasty surprise.What seems espe- Poland and the Soviet Union. The process cially difficult to explain is the extent of of building trust was twofold. The Federal Russia’s willingness to take risks,given that Republic offered binding recognition of its rule violations are likely to have eco- the new borders within Europe,and it nor- nomic and political repercussions. Russia malized relations with its eastern neigh- appears even to have taken into account bors via the Eastern Treaties, including the possibility that its behavior could trig- granting legal recognition to the German ger a military conflict that might not be Democratic Republic. Parallel to those containable. moves, the states of Eastern Europe were Assuming for the sake of argument brought into the Commission on Security that Minsk-style crisis management might and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE),a pro- help defuse the current conflict, could a cess that ultimately was supposed to lead second detente and Eastern policy accom- to binding commitments and the spread of plish anything in this situation, and if so Western values such as peaceful conflict what might it look like? It is quite obvious resolution, democracy, and civil rights. that a reappraisal of relations would have The process was completed by the signing to come first, and that would not be easy of the Helsinki Accords (the Helsinki Final for either side. Such a reappraisal actually Act) in 1975 and the Charter of Paris in would amount to a therapeutic attempt to 1990. One side got recognition of postwar make up for the deficit that has emerged realities and an insurance policy against in the political discourse between Russia any form of irredentism, while the other and the West. There has been a lot of talk, side saw in the CSCE codes a normative but no understanding. Or else the inter- basis for a European peace system, the locutors understood each other, but noth- rules of which held out the prospect of po- ing came of it. litical stability and civilized political solu- In Russia,new priorities have been tions in cases of conflict. established before our very eyes that have After the breakup of the Soviet Union led to a sharp tension between Russian in 1991 and the end of the confrontation thinking and behavior,on the one side,and between the two military alliances, the the norms of the European peace system, European political system continued to on the other.Russia wants to be recognized evolve on the basis of those policies. as a global power of the same rank as the Mikhail Gorbachev’s perestroika policies, United States.It is assumed that Russia can Moscow’s acquiescence in German re- lay claim to such a status only if it controls unification, and Boris Yeltsin’s reforms all a larger territorial sphere of influence than seemed to be preliminary steps toward the it does now. From the Western point of continuing development of a sustainable view, this kind of thinking in classic geo-

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 19 strategic categories is a relic of the past. the »fighting back« pattern, but do little to Or, will we have to come to grips with the put minds at rest in Ukraine, Poland, or Russian perception that sees in NATO’s (especially) in the Baltic republics, with and the EU’s eastward expansion and the their strong Russian minorities. There, the EU’s regional strategy (e.g., the »Eastern annexation of Crimea really has destroyed Partnership«) nothing more than classical every shred of trust in the European peace territorial sphere-of-influence politics, i.e., system. As during the Cold War, people the attempt to expand the Western sphere now have confidence in »hardware« alone, of influence at the expense of Russia’s? and would prefer to have NATO combat Russia’s geostrategic approach to foreign troops stationed forward than listen to the policy has also led it complain about double most recent batch of reassurances about standards. Whenever our Russian discus- the reliability of the Western alliance’s sion partners hear Western lectures about security guarantees. The reintroduction of their violations of law and international military conscription in Lithuania can be legal norms in Crimea and Ukraine, they taken as a sign of this trend.A person could never fail to reply with countercharges about despair sometimes upon realizing how little Western behavior that contravenes inter- sensitivity there is in Moscow about how national law in the cases of Kosovo and Iraq. much the Crimean and Ukrainian policies To them, the sole difference is that, because have ruffled feathers among Russia’s im- the United States is a global power,its immu- mediate neighbors.There,Russian policies nity from sanctions is respected by every- have cut a swath of destruction, destroyed one, whereas the West does not hesitate to trust, and fostered feelings of insecurity. impose such sanctions on Russia. And those are by no means the only But there is a new element here.We are challenges to a renewed detente policy, no longer dealing with an internal dis- which will have no chance of succeeding course carried on within a relatively small unless it is preceded by a thoroughgoing Russian nomenklatura. No matter how it reappraisal of the entire trajectory of East- may have come about – and no one would West relations since 1991. question the role that carefully controlled Despite the pleasant-sounding title, and effective propaganda has played – the »Strategic Partnership,« Eastern and West- Russian populace strongly supports Putin’s ern political thinking in this age have drif- incorporation of Crimea and his confron- ted very far apart. It will be a tational policies toward the West. The for- Herculean task to bring them Detente policy mer move in fact is characterized offici- back together,one that calls to requires ally as »reunification,« while the latter is mind the historical challenge political will portrayed as the defiant act of a nation that and accomplishment of the has »gotten up from its knees.« Russian Eastern and detente policy of the 70s and popular support for Putin’s foreign policy 80s. At that time policymakers managed is a political fact that the current Russian to question ideological dogmas and cer- leadership can count on. A majority of the titudes in a cycle of conferences held over populace is ready to bear the costs of such the course of several years,and to lay a new a policy of confrontation. normative foundation on which all parti- In keeping with this image, President cipants could rely, one that proved to be Putin has been at pains recently to portray enforceable. Russian policies as responses to external The experiences of those days con- threats and to assure his audience that, by stitute a valuable treasure trove that we can contrast, no one need feel threatened by still use. It may be that we will have re- Moscow. Declarations of this kind fit into course to the method of multi-year nego-

20 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 tiation cycles.But the prospects for success Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organi- will be influenced by another factor: wheth- zation, the Expansion of the strategic er the will exists to overcome the present triangle Russia-China-India, and the up- confrontation via a process of political ex- grading of the G20 and the BRICS. changes and to construct a new relation- The point is that a new detente policy ship of trust. In the West, the prevalent can be launched only if solid majorities in attitude is that Moscow just needs to admit both the West and Russia really want it and that it has broken the rules, to stop doing imagine that they will derive benefits and so, and to renew its commitment to the improvements from such a new process norms of the European peace system that of confidence-building, as compared with it so blatantly violated. Then nothing more the status quo ante. By this time, matters would stand in the way of business as have gone beyond the stage at which dam- usual for both partners. age control alone will work. The issue at In Russia, numerous verbal commit- stake now is whether it is still possible to ments to the package of measures contained prevent the emergence of a new political in the Minsk agreement suggest that there fault line running right through the Eura- is an interest in avoiding further political sian continent. A new partnership found- escalation at this time, even though one ed on trust will not come into being unless cannot overlook Russia’s failure to imple- the political processes that have brought ment all of the pledges made in that pact. both sides into the current confrontation But there are also open and contentious have been painstakingly reappraised. discussions going on about whether it If we think of such a process in the is necessary – or even makes sense – for context of the historic Eastern and detente Russia to enter into a partnership agree- policies and the decades required to carry ment with the West. The Russian leader- them out successfully, then we will have to ship appears to be convinced that it has admit one thing: The scale of the challenge other options: the Eurasian Economic is comparable.

Gernot Erler is a Member of the German Parliament (MdB) and former Minister of State. He coordinates the Federal Government’s inter-societal cooperation efforts with Russia,Central Asia,and the countries of the Eastern Partnership.He is the Federal Government’s special representative to the OSCE. [email protected]

Joachim Fritz-Vannahme The Conservatives Won, but the Ship is Listing The involuntary Europeanization of David Cameron

The winning candidate was the least of the Labour candidate Ed Miliband, against the evils. This formula sums up the surprising anti-European Nigel Farage, against the electoral victory of Prime Minister David pro-European Liberal Nick Clegg – and for Cameron in the recent British elections for the popular Nicola Sturgeon, the leading the House of Commons. At the polls Brit- candidate of the Scottish National Party ish voters decided against the unpopular (SNP).

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 21 Really? It is true that Cameron’s Con- The voters made liars out of all the servatives won an absolute majority of the opinion polls, which up until the last mi- seats being contested and added 28 Mem- nute had predicted a neck-and-neck race bers of Parliament (MPs) to boot. How- and a hung parliament, i.e. a paralyzed ever, they won only a slightly greater share House of Commons. Was it instinct that of the total vote (0.8 %) than they attracted led the British to seek refuge in a grudging in 2010. Meanwhile, Labour boosted its vote for the unpopular David Cameron, share by an additional 1.5 %,while Farage’s perhaps because they sensed that their UKIP, with 12.7 %, gained 9.6 % as com- party system was getting increasingly frag- pared to its previous total, although it won mented? Or was it simply distaste for the only one seat in Westminster. By contrast, even more unpopular Labour leader Ed the Scottish Nationalists, a party that gar- Miliband that came to the surface, inten- nered only 4.7 % of the vote in the United sified by fear of the unpredictable conse- Kingdom as a whole, took advantage of quences that might ensue if, as expected, Scotland’s special status, winning 56 of the the Scottish Nationalists acquiesced in a 59 seats allotted to Scotland, mostly at the Labour-led government? The pollsters, expense of the Labour Party. who just embarrassed themselves with In short, the Prime Minister’s electoral their inaccurate predictions, will try to ex- triumph was given a right and proper boost plain it to us in the weeks to come. by both the plurality voting system and So what does the Tories’ absolute ma- Scotland’s special status. Moreover, this jority portend for Great Britain – and for victory conceals a profound transformation. Europe? Both answers can be summarized In the early 50s,the two major parties were in a six-letter word: Brexit. Spelled out, it dominant, winning about 97 % of all the means a British exit from the European votes cast. Today they claim only about Union. Cameron has promised that his two-thirds of the vote tally. Back then there fellow citizens will have a chance to vote were only two Members of Parliament in on that question, by 2017 the House of Commons who did not belong at the latest. Until the refe- A vacuum to one or the other of the major parties; rendum is held, he would of legitimacy today there are 88. Even now, however, also campaign for a treaty is emerging two-thirds of the votes cast account for revision to return to the almost 85 % of the 650 seats. Taken to- British what they have »lost« to the EU. gether, UKIP,the Liberals,and the SNP sha- The Prime Minister hinted that he him- re about a quarter of all the votes, yet they self is not even really against the EU or have very few places on the opposition in favor of an exit, but he felt that he had to benches. take into account the widespread skep- Since the Victorian age, the golden ticism about the EU among his fellow citi- rule of Britain’s plurality voting system has zens. been »first past the post.« The winner-takes- Cameron’s promise is thus intended all rule secured a clear majority for the for two audiences – the domestic public strongest party, whether Labour or the and Britain’s European neighbors – and it Tories, while depriving smaller parties of is virtually the only concrete project he any opportunity to participate in govern- wanted to be elected for. Not only the ment. For about 130 years this system pro- roughly three million UKIP voters, but also ved to be stable, unfair, and efficient, but many voters and MPs among the Tories those days are over. Or perhaps they really would prefer to see a European Union aren’t, as Cameron’s victory on a listing without the United Kingdom. At least 60, ship demonstrates. and possibly as many as 90, of the 330

22 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 Conservative Members of Parliament in easily if only his European partners would the newly elected House of Commons are make some concessions to him. He has thought to be Euro-skeptical or even anti- vested his fondest hopes in Angela Merkel, European. In other words, Cameron’s since she once did speak of the need for triumphal majority is not really all that treaty revision. stable. Thus, a pattern is being repro- What London overlooks is the fact that duced that the Financial Times described Merkel is currently engaged in a project to during the election campaign under the revise the rules of the game in the euro- rubric of »The Great Fragmentation«. The zone. And in this context, Times believes that a vacuum of legiti- it is indeed true that par- Highly-charged macy is emerging, one that will »be filled ticipants are discussing issue: by the antis: the anti-elite, the anti-Euro- whether existing treaties »social tourism« pean, the anti-immigrant and the anti- might have to be revised in capitalist.« order to create a banking or fiscal union. Sensitive to this mood, Cameron re- But Cameron does not need a reform of fused to take a clear position on many issues the euro-zone, since Britain is not even a during the campaign. Even today it is not member of it. Instead, he wants a treaty clear which matters he wants to renegotiate revision of the entire European Union. He with his EU partners and how he could ex- will not get it before the referendum is pect revisions to be ratified by 28 countries held, and that fact marks the beginning of within a year and a half, at the outside. his troubles. More generally, during the elections the The new government does not merely hot button issue of EU reform was strik- want to change the rules of the European ingly absent. The most prominent topic of Union; it also wishes to alter those of the debate was immigration, not so much by European Court for Human Rights in Stras- refugees crossing the Mediterranean – of bourg. With Michael Gove, Cameron no- whom the British take fewer than almost minated a high-profile critic of the Stras- any other country – but migration within bourg court to be his Minister of Justice. the EU internal market. The Tories want to revise the terms of This highly-charged issue was addres- Britain’s membership in the Council of sed under the heading of »social tourism,« Europe,and,in so doing,place themselves an alleged ill that Cameron had already at- outside the jurisdiction of the European tacked as early as 2014. Note that the mo- Court for Human Rights. But that policy bility of labor counts among those funda- conflicts with the Belfast Agreement of mental liberties inscribed in European 1998. To prevent a continuation of the treaties since the EU’s inception.Certainly, bloody civil war between Unionists and a British government can regulate the level Nationalists, the inhabitants of Northern of social benefits for immigrants from Ireland then were promised additional other EU countries according to national rights, above and beyond those they en- laws, but it must respect this fundamental joyed under the European Convention on liberty and the equality of all EU citizens. Human Rights. Thus, the Conservatives The EU member-states east of the Elbe and would be driving a wedge both between the Danube emphatically warned the newly- citizens of the United Kingdom and be- elected Prime Minister that he should not tween Great Britain and the Europe of the meddle with these »sacrosanct rules.« Council of Europe. David Cameron enjoyed creating the The growing strength of Scottish na- impression that he would be able to en- tionalism suggests how closely intertwined gineer a »yes« vote in the referendum more British domestic and foreign policy are.

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 23 Since its defeat in the referendum of 2014, 85 % of all British citizens live. Yet, unlike the Scottish Nationalist Party has quadru- the Welsh, the Scots, and the Northern pled its membership from 25,000 to over Irish, the English do not have a parliament 100,000. The Nationalists have of their own.The logical solution would be The impending left no doubt about their in- to create one. But if there were such a thing, ordeal tention to put Scottish inde- it would represent 85 % of the population pendence to a vote once again in a federal system, a phenomenon that in the event that Britain says no to the EU. would be unique in the world. Thus, La-bour lost Scotland, but so too did In sum, it is not only the European David Cameron. A no vote on continued future of Great Britain that is uncertain, membership in the European Union would, but the future of the United Kingdom it- in all probability,lead Scotland to say no to self, which is fragmenting along party and the United Kingdom, thus ending a Union regional lines, as well as economically and that has endured for over 300 years. socially. Although it may sound para- Recently, the self-confidence of the doxical, on most major issues domestic Scots has also bolstered that of the Welsh policy in Great Britain is indissolubly link- and Northern Irish. Their assertiveness ed to its European policy. The UK is inter- has also given fresh impetus to the dis- nally disunited and economically depen- cussion about »Englishness.« »English- dent on the City of London, the world’s ness« is not only a matter of identity; it financial capital. Furthermore, British so- also involves the question of what system ciety, like so many others, is marked by of representation is appropriate for the burgeoning inequality. In the EU as well as United Kingdom. One hears Conservatives on the global stage,it finds itself consigned and, even more pointedly, representatives of to a marginal role, more by choice than by the UKIP asking why Scottish MPs should external pressure. Great Britain may evolve be permitted to vote on bills in West- into Little England. At any rate, in this minster that actually concern mainly the country there is a widening gap between English, whereas no English person is now reality and aspiration. A no to the Euro- allowed to vote on Scottish bills, which are pean Union would widen the chasm still to be debated in Edinburgh alone. more. Even if the answer were yes, a per- The Scottish question is thus both a ceptibly more riven Great Britain would be European and an English matter. Of the a difficult partner in the EU. The election 650 MPs in the House of Commons, 533 is over, but we still await the final verdict represent constituencies in England, where on Britain’s future.

Joachim Fritz-Vannahme is the director of European projects at the Bertelsmann Foundation and was previously the European editor of the weekly newspaper Die Zeit.

[email protected]

24 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 Jens Gmeiner Right-wing Populism and the Challenge to Social Democracy The case of Scandinavia

»If you come to Denmark, you are expec- parties in Europe.Instead,he continued, ted to work.« This was a slogan adopted by most of the parties in the Danish Parlia- the Danish Social Democrats during their ment shared similar sentiments concerning political campaign leading up to the elec- integration policies, including the Social tions on June 18. The campaign strategy Democrats. focused on making more stringent rules Not long ago, the great hope of the for the granting of asylum, limiting the social democratic Labour Party in neigh- number of family members entitled to join boring Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre, had asylum seekers, and setting stricter require- occasion to learn how compelling the ments for immigrants. The climate in Den- anti-immigration, anti-asylum discourse mark’s immigration and asylum politics in that country had become. Just a remind- had already been rather hot; attacks on a er: Since 2013, Norway has been ruled by cultural center and a synagogue in Copen- a center-right minority government, in hagen inflamed it even more. Many politi- which – for the first time ever – the anti- cal pundits interpret the electoral cam- Islam Progress Party is a junior partner. paign in Denmark as a contest to see who At a party congress of Norwegian Social has the toughest critique of immigration. Democrats in mid-April,a confident Jonas The chief beneficiary of this new course Gahr Støre demanded that the country has been the right-wing populist Danish accepts 10,000 refugees from Syria over the People’s Party, the big winner in the elec- next two years. The answer came promptly. tions after having garnered 21% of the His party had been polling over 40 % sup- vote for the Folketing (the Danish Par- port for several months, but now it quickly liament). sank to 35 % in opinion surveys, while one- During the last few years in Denmark, third of party members expressed oppo- social and welfare policies have not been sition to taking in the refugees. In short, the dominant policy issues; rather, migra- asylum and refugee policy is evidently a tion and integration policies have been the difficult and polarizing field in Scandi- primary focus,as evidenced by the debates navia, especially for Social Democrats. about forced marriage, Islam, and the con- But even where right-wing populists troversy over caricatures. have so far not joined government co- Anti-immigration, In a guest editorial for the alitions, they still can profoundly alter the anti-asylum Frankfurter Allgemeine Zei- climate of opinion; indeed, they can even discourse tung, the Danish author trigger a parliamentary crisis. This is Carsten Jensen expressed exactly what happened in Sweden after the his worry that,in the wake of the attacks in 2014 election.The newly elected red-green Copenhagen, the voice of tolerant Den- minority government fell when it could mark would be silenced once and for all. not get its budget proposals through par- If that were to happen, wrote Jensen, the liament. The reason for this debacle was blame could not be laid entirely at the the behavior of the Sweden Democrats, a doorstep of the Danish People’s Party, far-right party buoyed by its strong show- one of the strongest right-wing populist ing in the recent election, in which it ex-

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 25 panded its share of the vote to 13 %.Rather Democrats about how they should re- than abstaining on the budget bill, which spond to the restrictive immigration cour- is the usual (albeit informal) procedure, se taken by the center-right parties.Should the Sweden Democrats voted for the joint they draw a clear line in the sand or adapt budget proposal of the four middle-class to the anti-immigrant trend? This same opposition parties. In late December, controversy pervaded and still pervades following an agreement between Prime the party’s constituents, now split into Minister Stefan Löfven and those four two camps. The polarization of traditional opposition parties, new elections that had social democratic voters has forced the been announced were canceled. Still, the party into a dilemma concerning the red-green government in Sweden con- tactics it should adopt to win elections. If tinues to be fragile. It remains to be seen concessions are made to the conservative how far the Social Democratic leader, segments of the working class voter base, Löfven, can go in enacting the party’s own which seems to be the idea behind the new policy schemes in view of the unfavorable immigration campaign,that could alienate balance of power in parliament. Here, more liberal and highly-educated voters too, the right-wing populists have altered who tend to support multiculturalism and the arithmetic of political power in fun- international solidarity. damental ways. On the whole, by the end of the twen- By this time, right-wing populism is tieth century the Social Democratic par- well entrenched in all of the Scandinavian ties ofScandinavia were in retreat on countries – even though of course there several fronts: interpretive sovereignty, are difference in nuance on account of each linguistic differentiation, and the ability to country’s peculiar circumstances – and it describe their own reality. By contrast, poses daunting challenges to other parties, nationalist and ethnic in- not least to the Social Democrats. This terpretations have gained Internal conflicts comes out most clearly in Denmark.As the ground and partially filled among Social Democrats began to abandon clas- the vacuum of ideas left by Social Democrats sically leftist positions, by the late 90s the the Social Democrats as center-right parties – notably the right-wing they embraced the modernization and liberal Venstre and the Danish People’s Party globalization rhetoric of the 90s, evocative – started appealing to cultural issues, with of old-fashioned faith in progress. So it is growing success.Upon the traditional fault not just a coincidence that right-wing line between labor and capital was super- populists found especially fertile soil for imposed a new one focused on ethnically- their political ideas in peripheral rural areas tinged debates about crime, the role of and former working-class neighborhoods Islam, and abuse of social services. in which the slogans of globalization and The outcome: The Social Democrats in Europeanization evoked more anxiety than Denmark lost not only the 2001 election, hope. but also the next two elections to the The Swedish journalist Ulrika Knutson Folketing. Moreover, they lost the alle- pointed out in the journal Fokus that we giance of scores of voters from working ought to ask why the Sweden Democrats, class backgrounds who generally held of all parties, should have chalked up such leftist attitudes on economic issues, but landslide victories in the 2014 elections in tended to be conservative on cultural quest- infrastructure-deficient areas having few ions. In addition, debates about immi- immigrants. She argued that defunct bus gration and integration policies gave rise lines, shuttered banks, and closed post to internal conflicts among Danish Social offices were issues that had more than just

26 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 symbolic meaning for voters. To seize the ruled out categorically any sort of coope- political space abandoned by the Social ration with the Sweden Democrats. It is Democrats and other parties, populists likely that their anti-Sweden Democrat need to exploit such social and economic stance also has to do with the fact that the dislocations, since they underscore the latter party originated in the neo-fascist perceived or actual gap that has opened milieu, and that they (still) favor a liberal up between individuals and their represen- asylum and immigration policy that trans- tation at the level of the state. cends partisan alignments. Nevertheless, Another problem afflicting Scandi- the voter bases of virtually all the Swedish navian Social Democrats is that the right- parties have become more critical of the wing populist parties have narrowed the country’s immigration policy, and this range of options available to other parties includes the clientele of the Social Demo- to form alliances and exercise power. At crats. times they can even play the role of king- Another ticklish problem for the Scan- maker, occupying a crucial niche between dinavian Social Democrats is the fact that the major party alliances. In right-wing populists have portrayed them- Play the role of Norway and Finland, right- selves rhetorically as defenders of the so- kingmaker wing populists already have cial welfare state. They have adopted the been invited to participate clever strategy of painting an idealized directly in center-right governments. The picture of the welfare state’s past for voters, gains made by the Danish People’s Party, while making the narrow-minded claim which became the country’s second largest that all recent undesirable trends should after winning 21% of the vote for the be blamed on Europe or immigration. The Folketing, offset the electoral collapse suf- sociologist Karin Priester is quite justified fered by the right-wing liberal Venstre – in saying that right-wing populism dis- really the main rival of the Social Demo- plays two of its chief characteristics in crats. Although the Danish Social Demo- robust welfare states, surprising though it crats again became the strongest party may seem. First, the right-wing populists with 26 % of the vote, the middle-class attack what they consider an »insular« elite »blue bloc« captured a majority of the vote that they blame, among other things, for thanks to the right-wing populists.The big selling out the social welfare state. Second, loser was the chairman of the right-liberal their anti-elitism is accompanied by an Venstre Party, Lars Løkke Rasmussen. »ethno-cultural politics of identity.« That But – as paradoxical as it may sound – he is, social services are to be granted accord- may very well become the next head of ing to ethnic criteria rather than being government. Thus, the Social Democratic made available universally. They thus em- minority government under Helle Thor- brace the motto: first our own people, then ning-Schmidt was voted out after four the others, wherever one decides to draw years in office, although its defeat was ethnic boundaries. partly due to the heavy losses suffered by The Finns Party thus does not even its former coalition partners in the center- campaign directly against foreigners; in- left camp. stead, it stumps for a welfare state that Even in Sweden,where a Social Demo- would serve primarily Finnish families crat has governed since September of 2014, and the socially disadvantaged rural popu- the majority is located mathematically lace. Likewise, the Danish People’s Party, right of center. Until now, however, the the Norwegian Progress Party, and the four middle-class »alliance parties,« led by Sweden Democrats,despite their divergent the liberal-conservative Moderates, have economic policies, target the worries about

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 27 the social welfare state typical of older have eroded, and where labor unions and people, so that they can play off immigra- Social Democracy have forfeited some of tion and asylum policies against welfare their organizational capabilities. state policy. Prior to the 2015 elections, the The rise of right-wing populism in re- Danish People’s Party positioned itself to cent years is, among other things, an ex- the left of even the Social Democrats on pression of the need for security felt by some social policy issues, a move that evi- frightened groups in times of inscrutable dently appealed to the voters. In the Scan- social and economic change. The progres- dinavian welfare culture, social security is sive brands of social democracy in Scan- part of a basic normative consensus. But dinavia – which, as in when a person’s own social status seems Sweden, gave themselves Close cooperation materially jeopardized, that consensus can the additive »the party of with labor unions morph into its opposite: denigration of the the future« – apparently »other« on both economic and ethnic are no longer able to provide a plausible grounds. That is one reason why right- outlet for this need for security. This is the wing populism in Scandinavia has found case partly because the lower social strata fertile ground not only among margin- gradually have lost their attachment to so- alized strata of the population,but actually cial democracy,in respect to the structures extends far into the middle class, where and habits of mind that once bound those fears of status loss and downward mobility classes to »their« party. A deeper reason are especially pronounced. for the deracination of social democracy is Thus,one thing that ought to happen is that the Europe issue in Scandinavia has for Social Democrats to continue their close led to dramatic ruptures between the pro- cooperation with labor unions, in order to European, pro-globalization party elites bring alarm signals and anxieties to the and the skeptical electoral base. attention of the parties at an early stage, Among other things, populism is al- because the middle levels of the Social ways a seismograph indicating that some- Democratic party are no longer as closely thing is going wrong in a society. It is an attuned as they once were to the life-world alarm bell alerting us to the fact that the of the voting populace. For that reason it is bond between citizens and the establish- not surprising that the right-wing popu- ment has weakened or been torn asunder. lists have scored their greatest triumphs Probably the greatest challenge for Social precisely in those locales where spaces and Democratic parties in Scandinavia and communities imbued with social morality elsewhere is to repair or renew that bond.

Jens Gmeiner is a political scientist and doctoral fellow of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. He does research primarily on Scandinavian politics and society and is currently working on a doctoral dissertation concerning the pro- cesses of transformation that have occurred among Sweden’s conservatives since 2002. [email protected]

28 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 Richard Meng Is Morality in Foreign Policy an Illusion? Deep embarrassment for the EU on the refugee issue

As more people die a miserable death by managed to achieve so far is pathetically drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, the inadequate compared to the scale of the pressure is mounting to formulate a Euro- challenge. pean refugee policy at long last. A cynical This is exactly the way in which many correlation? Of course. But a genuine prob- foreign policy matters are handled, time lem of acceptance has emerged. The »see after time – with chronic pretentiousness no evil« strategy, which was in its own and soft-pedaling. But stupidity and weak- right an expression of sheer helplessness ness are not the culprits here; in fact, such coupled with various kinds of political policies are intended to be prudent or at parochialism, has come to an end. Where least reasonable from the point of view its demise will lead is still anybody’s guess. of the foreign-policy establishment. The What it should lead to, ultimately, is greater world of diplomatic relations is like this awareness of international issues. everywhere around the world. Interests Because it lacked an internal consen- are defined and acted upon after due de- sus, the European Union deliberately left liberation. This is the case whether one is Italy to grapple with the problem all alone. dealing with Russia, China, Israel, or the Certainly, that was a lethal logic, but an United States and its spy agencies. Plain effective one from the selfish viewpoint of language is almost entirely ruled out. this or that European capital. It worked But who defines the interests, why and only until the point was reached where it how? Here, things start to get more com- was impossible to look away any longer – plicated than they were in times when hardly an unusual sequence of events.And clear criteria existed for identifying friends now statistics are coming to light in the and foes. When human lives are at stake, media that clearly reveal which EU coun- can we still accept this sort of calculating tries continue to plead ignorance when- and weighing of interests as the guiding ever their responsibility to take in refugees principle of policymaking? And what if is broached. the interest in question is really all about Some people were not happy to see not getting drawn into a conflict? More- those statistics shouted from the rooftops. over, what if pollsters have confirmed that Comparative data have a way of provoking a majority of the population approves of tit for tat responses and counter-demands. this interest, regardless of humanitarian For example,experts have long known that concerns? What then? Poland, Spain, Great Britain and half of These questions are not entirely new. Eastern Europe are not pulling their weight But given the refugee drama going on in when it comes to showing solidarity and the Mediterranean, they are questions that taking in refugees. But diplomats have are suddenly on the minds of many people, assured everyone that a loud public outcry even in the tiniest church congregations. (especially from Germany) would make it We should interpret this as an opportunity all the more difficult to find a solution. and not as an additional threat coming Unfortunately, one would have to admit from within, so to speak. that this rule of thumb has stood the test. As our times have become both more The minimal consensus that the EU has bellicose and more opaque, a professional

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 29 outlook – or better the avoidance of an For some time now,the availability and outlook – has emerged more and more fre- control of TV images or Internet videos quently in the world of diplomacy.Yet this has become incredibly important in deter- attitude has evoked sheer incomprehension mining the nature and scope of foreign and moral outrage on the part of the public, policymaking. The modern liberal societies whenever that the public shines a light on of Europe have proven to be susceptible to such issues even briefly. How can anyone outside influences via the language of not address human rights, not rescue re- images,emotion,and moral suasion.Of fugees, not speak of genocide when that is course people hoping to migrate make use the right word, and not compensate Greece of those forms of influence in their own in- for Nazi terror. Furthermore, how can one terest, on the principle: what other choice send weapons to the Middle East or give do you have but to take us in? And what data to US intelligence agencies? will happen if gangs of every kind, up to The diagnosis is clear: The two and including ISIS, use those media in- spheres, diplomacy and public sentiment, fluences even more systematically in the are diverging. One or another professional future to benefit their own causes? Com- diplomat will say: realistic petition to influence the major visual media The disconcertingly interest-based policies are is among the more crucial factors deter- minimal influence increasingly hard to com- mining which perceptions prevail. They of values municate,so it is better not also help determine how foreign policy even to try.The public,irri- alternatives will be weighted in democratic tated by this attitude, asks just the opposite societies, since a democratic polity cannot question: how can it be that domestic poli- risk triggering long-term legitimation tical values have such a disconcertingly problems in the domestic arena. minimal influence on the way that the state’s There are simple truths.One of them is business is actually carried out, especially that we must resolve the refugee question when it comes to diplomatic maneuvering at its root. Poverty and violence must be that goes on below the symbolic threshold confronted in the refugees’ home coun- that captures the media’s attention (e.g., tries. There will be no problem passing a state visits and summit meetings)? U.N. resolution to that effect as long as it There is nothing simple about this issue. is abstract. But the really serious problem The dilemma has become palpable on ac- arises when one seeks ways to move for- count of the international wave of refugees. ward once the declarations have been ap- What good will it do in the future to de- proved. It is more likely that the opposite stroy boats, if need be even those directly will happen; after all, that is the reason on the Libyan coast? Perhaps doing so will why there are refugee waves in the first prevent drowning deaths, but it will just place. Here, we should not allow ourselves displace the problem a few kilometers to be fooled by positive media coverage southward. How much is that worth from devoted to well-intentioned individual the point of view of realpolitik and/or mo- projects. ral considerations? What will happen to Now what? The Western moral reflex the hundreds of thousands of young, vigo- is: then we will just have to take them in. rous human beings in Africa who have One hopes that this principle will indeed already begun the journey north and from be put into practice, without further ado whom Libyan smugglers will no longer be and if possible everywhere in Europe. But able to earn any money? Which is the lesser it is not sufficient when viewed as a strate- and which the greater humanitarian catas- gy toward the rest of the world.Emergency trophe? assistance alone is not a responsible future

30 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 strategy. Migration of the (frequently) seems to the former a self-evident moral brightest young people from their coun- obligation. What strikes the former as in- tries of origin does nothing to help the human-technocratic appears to the latter latter. Nor has anything resembling a plan as dogged detail work. emerged on the European side. In principle there is no way to bridge And so it is time to think in more this gulf. Up to a point it is even necessary principled ways about foreign policy. One in an open, democratic setting. But by now reason for this is the evident tendency of it is obvious that the gap has become too diplomatic corps to acquire an indepen- wide. More than ever foreign policy is dent status vis-à-vis the societies they under an obligation to explain what it does supposedly represent. At the international to a domestic audience, and to interrogate level, economic interests and the logic of and seize upon new ideas from the grass power prevail in the myriad contact groups, roots of society earlier. But the foreign forums, and committees. It is rare to find a policy establishment is not really prepared populace that has formed its own opinions to do this. Then game-changing experi- by independent channels, and when that ences such as the refugee crisis come along does happen, it is usually after the fact. that disgrace Europe, both administrative- TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment ly and morally, down to its very core. Eu- Partnership) is a striking example of this rope embarrasses itself as the whole world phenomenon, but there are countless other watches. ones. Of course, diplomats will observe Of course, it sometimes helps to be- comity on issue A because concessions come more aware of a dilemma. Foreign have been made on issue B. That is the policy, widely-ramified and fixated on in- whole point of international politics. But terests, often lacks any sense to say that out loud? Diplomats might of the feelings of those who A soothing reply that nothing would ever get done in are looking at it from the moral club that case. outside. Meanwhile, on the However, one should not imagine that domestic scene the short attention span – foreign policy elites conceal interests be- usually media-generated – devoted to in- cause they harbor evil intentions. On the ternational affairs is too moralistic. Under contrary, things are much simpler than those circumstances,no one needs to worry that: The interest is plain to see. But the about the difficult business of weighing public responds most readily to emotions and balancing advantages and disadvan- stirred up by the day’s news and does not tages. Today one can be for taking in re- see the broader context that could clarify fugees and tomorrow against arms de- and illuminate many issues at once. The liveries, the day after tomorrow against specialists keep on negotiating. At some G7 meetings and accords with authori- point the public reacts with astonishment tarian leaders generally. It can be sooth- and counters with its own priorities, ing to wield this kind of moral club,at least demands, clichés or even anxieties. Its re- for those who swing it. But what else is actions are engaged, one-sided, and often gained? radical. For historical reasons, if for no other Worlds – of thought, perception, and ones, Germany is a country that does not jurisdiction – separate committed refugee enjoy debating its international roles and aides from EU-level experts on the right of interests. On this score, while some of its asylum, who are attempting to harmonize neighbors have distinct, historically ambi- different legal systems and levels of involve- valent traditions, they ultimately are more ment. What the latter perceive as naive closely attuned to the rest of the world

NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 31 than Germany is. For that reason it would But then anyone who accepts that premise be a good idea to broaden the German can no longer advocate a strict non-inter- public’s powerful fixation on domestic ference principle.Yes, Europe has to inter- political perceptions by continually high- fere, and everyone needs to think through lighting the European or global dimensions the implications of that insight. It embraces of specific issues. not only implications of a material nature, Geostrategic interests? By German but also those involving cultural openness standards that is a downright diabolical and monitoring in matters touching on expression. Still, they do exist and include security policy. energy and raw material supplies, not to Last but not least: The hundreds of mention climate change and disarmament. thousands of people who manage to cross One should not think of them in isolation the Mediterranean every year bring a mes- from political values, and certainly not in sage with them for Europe; indeed, they isolation from EU-European solidarity. embody that message. For the most part, But if one accepts the idea that geostrategic the suffering and poverty of this world are interests exist, that should not be taken to still geographically remote from us, but signal the end of morality in foreign policy. they can no longer be kept separate from In light of the refugee waves, it is hard the world we experience in everyday life. to imagine a coherent foreign policy stra- To be honest, many of us try to keep that tegy that would refuse to assume respon- suffering at arm’s length,but it is becoming sibilities outside of the country’s borders. more and more difficult to do so.

Richard Meng is a political scientist, author, and serves on the advisory council of Neue Gesellschaft/Frankfurter Hefte. He was deputy editor-in-chief of the daily newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau and Speaker of the Senate. [email protected]

32 NG|FH – Quarterly 4|2015 Released for the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung by Kurt Beck, Sigmar Gabriel, Klaus Harpprecht, Jürgen Kocka, Thomas Meyer and Bascha Mika

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