Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups
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Aptitude for Destruction Volume 2 Case Studies of Organizational Learning in Five Terrorist Groups Brian A. Jackson John C. Baker Kim Cragin John Parachini Horacio R. Trujillo Peter Chalk Prepared for the National Institute of Justice The research described in this report was supported by Grant No. 2003- IJ-CX-1022 awarded by the National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The research was conducted within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE), a division of the RAND Corporation, for the National Institute of Justice. Points of view in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Aptitude for destruction : organizational learning in terrorist groups and its implications for combating terrorism / Brian A. Jackson ... [et al.]. p. cm. “MG-331.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3764-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorists. 2. Organizational learning. 3. Terrorism—Prevention—Government policy. I. Jackson, Brian A. (Brian Anthony) II.Title. HV6431.A67 2005 303.6'25—dc22 2005003983 “MG-332.” ISBN 0-8330-3767-6 Photo courtesy of iStockphoto.com Inc. Copyright 2005 iStockphoto Inc. Online at http://www.iStockphoto.com/Photographer: John Bohannon The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Continuing conflicts between violent groups and states generate an ever-present de- mand for higher quality and more timely information to support operations to com- bat terrorism. In particular, better ways are needed to understand how terrorist and insurgent groups adapt over time into more-effective organizations and increasingly dangerous threats. To adapt, terrorist organizations must learn. A group’s ability to learn determines its chance of success, since learning is the link between what the group wants to do and its ability to gather the needed information and resources to actually do it. Despite the importance of terrorist group learning, comparatively little focused research effort has been directed at understanding this process and identify- ing the factors that influence group learning ability. While relevant data and insights can be found in the literature on terrorism and terrorist organizations, this informa- tion has not been collected and systematically analyzed to assess its importance from the perspective of efforts to combat terrorism. This study addresses that need in an effort to both analyze current understanding and stimulate further study and research in this area. The National Institute of Justice provided funding to the RAND Corporation to conduct an analysis of organizational learning in terrorist groups and assess its im- plications for efforts to combat terrorism. The work was performed between Novem- ber 2003 and November 2004, a period during which the threat of international ter- rorism was high and concern about the capabilities of terrorist organizations and how they might change over time was a central focus of policy debate and U.S. homeland security planning. The study is described in this report and in a companion volume, Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ, which applies the analytical framework described in the second part of this report to the practical demands of in- telligence and law enforcement activities. This report should be of interest to a wide range of audiences, including profes- sionals with interests in terrorism, counterterrorism, emergency response planning, and homeland security. It extends RAND’s ongoing research on terrorism and do- mestic security issues. Related RAND publications include the following: iii iv Aptitude for Destruction • Brian A. Jackson et al., Aptitude for Destruction, Volume 1: Organizational Learning in Terrorist Groups and Its Implications for Combating Terrorism, MG-331-NIJ. • Brian A. Jackson et al., Protecting Emergency Responders: Lessons Learned from Terrorist Attacks, CF-176-OSTP, 2002. • Kim Cragin and Sara A. Daly, The Dynamic Terrorist Threat: An Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing World, MR-1782-AF, 2004. • Peter Chalk and William Rosenau, Confronting the “Enemy Within”: Security Intelligence, the Police, and Counterterrorism in Four Democracies, MG-100-RC, 2004. • Bruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, OP-127-IPC/ CMEPP, 2004. This research was conducted within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Envi- ronment (ISE), a division of the RAND Corporation. The mission of RAND ISE is to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of society’s essential built and natural assets; and to enhance the related social assets of safety and security of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. The ISE research portfolio encompasses research and analysis on a broad range of policy areas includ- ing homeland security, criminal justice, public safety, occupational safety, the envi- ronment, energy, natural resources, climate, agriculture, economic development, transportation, information and telecommunications technologies, space exploration, and other aspects of science and technology policy. Inquiries regarding RAND Infra- structure, Safety, and Environment may be directed to: Debra Knopman, Vice President and Director RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington, Virginia 22202 703-413-1100 Email: [email protected] http://www.rand.org/ise Contents Preface ........................................................................................ iii Figures and Tables ........................................................................... ix Acknowledgments............................................................................ xi Abbreviations and Acronyms .............................................................. xiii CHAPTER ONE Introduction Brian A. Jackson ..............................................................1 The Need to Both Describe and Explain Learning ............................................2 About This Study ..............................................................................3 About This Report .............................................................................5 References ......................................................................................6 Part I: Case Studies Prologue .......................................................................................9 CHAPTER TWO Aum Shinrikyo John Parachini ........................................................... 11 Introduction ................................................................................. 11 Background .................................................................................. 12 Operations and Tactics ...................................................................... 18 Training...................................................................................... 25 Logistics