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Ensuring survival: Oceans, climate and security
Article in Ocean & Coastal Management · March 2014 DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.08.007
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Janot Mendler de Suarez Kateryna Wowk Boston University Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
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Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37
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Ensuring survival: Oceans, climate and security
Janot Mendler de Suarez a,*, Biliana Cicin-Sain b, Kateryna Wowk b, Rolph Payet c, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg d a Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, 67 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215, USA b Gerard J. Mangone Center for Marine Policy, College of Earth, Ocean and Environment, University of Delaware, 301 Robinson Hall, Newark, DE 19716, USA c Ministry of Environment and Energy, Seychelles d Centre for Marine Studies, The University of Queensland, Australia article info abstract
Article history: The oceans play a vital role in the global carbon cycle, regulate climate and temperature, provide food Available online 24 September 2013 security and support the livelihoods of billions of people around the globe, especially in coastal areas (where over half the global population resides) and in small island states, where some of the most vulnerable populations rely on marine resources. However, the provision of these life-sustaining services is at riskdclimate change and ocean acidification are already affecting marine ecosystems and coastal populations, threatening the ability of the oceans to continue providing economic resources and envi- ronmental services on which we so critically depend. Citing evidence of these key points, this paper calls for improved governance, the use of ecosystem-based approaches in coastal and ocean management, and urgency in transition to a low-carbon economy. With enhanced governance frameworks and a reliance on science and best practices, we can improve food security, enhance ecosystem resilience, secure sustainable livelihoods, and provide man-made and, perhaps more importantly, natural protections to threats to human health and environmental security from rising seas, acidifying oceans, coastal hazards and extreme weather events. The oceans play a vital role in combating climate change impacts, which, as much current evidence shows, will be more extensive and disastrous than previously forecast by in- ternational experts. It is urgent that the international community concertedly and decisively act to protect this function, including with the improvement of climate change cost estimates and development of financing mechanisms. We must act to increase resilience of key ocean and coastal ecosystems that provide shoreline and infrastructure protection, water quality maintenance, food security, and livelihood support. In effect, we must act to protect our own security through “ocean security”. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction driver of climate variability and long-term climate change (UNEP, 2007). As will be shown throughout this brief, climate change is The global oceans play a vital role in sustaining life on Earth. already affecting the ability of coastal and marine ecosystems to Oceans are generating half of the world’s oxygen, providing the provide food security, sustainable livelihoods, protection from nat- largest active carbon sink and absorbing a significant portion of ural hazards, cultural identity, and recreation to coastal populations, anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2)(WBGU, 2006). Our oceans are especially for the most vulnerable communities in tropical areas. continually regulating climate and temperature, while providing There is now global recognition of the importance of forests and economic resources and environmental services to billions of terrestrial ecosystems in addressing climate change. An emerging people around the globe. The oceans of our planet serve as an understanding of the complex and intimate relationship between intricate and generous life-support system for the entire biosphere. climate change and the oceans offers new hope and should be Ocean circulation, in constant interaction with the earth’s atmo- examined to foster nature-based approaches to mitigate the negative sphere, regulates global climate and temperature, and e through impacts of global warming, and to build ecosystem and community multiple feedback loops related to ocean warming e is a principal resilience to climate-related hazards that cannot be averted. Ecosystem-based ocean and coastal management generates multiple co-benefits, ranging from food security and health, to livelihoods and * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected], [email protected] (J. Mendler new technologies that contribute to progress in equitable and envi- de Suarez). ronmentally sustainable development toward a low-carbon future.
0964-5691/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2013.08.007 Author's personal copy
28 J. Mendler de Suarez et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37
Recent observations indicate that impacts of our changing global climate on oceans and coasts e especially in the Arctic e now far exceed the findings of the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (USGCRP, 2009). Moreover, we know that increasing ocean acidification, a consequence of rising atmospheric CO2, is impacting coral reefs and marine invertebrates, in turn changing the structure and nature of ocean ecosystems (WBGU, 2006). The oceans offer an important key to averting some of the potentially far-reaching, devastating and long-lasting humanitarian and environmental consequences of climate change. Out of all the biological carbon captured in the world, over half is captured by marine living organisms, hence the term “blue carbon.” In a 2009 Fig. 1. Past and contemporary variability of ocean pH. Future predictions are model derived values based on IPCC mean scenarios (Turley et al., 2006). report, leading scientists found that carbon emissions equal to half the annual emissions of the global transport sector are being captured and stored by marine ecosystems such as mangroves, salt and presents key recommendations for a comprehensive frame- marshes and seagrass meadows. A combination of reducing work to address concerns, and better integrate vital ocean and deforestation on land, allied to restoring the coverage and health of coastal contributions for effective climate change policy and action. these coastal ecosystems could deliver up to 25 percent of the emissions reductions needed to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change. However, the report warns that instead of maintaining and 1.1. The oceans have a vital role in combating climate change enhancing these natural carbon sinks, humanity is damaging and impacts degrading them at an accelerating rate. It estimates that up to seven percent of these ‘blue carbon sinks’ are being lost annually, or, The oceans, which are part of the climate system, are the blue seven times the rate of loss of 50 years ago (Nellemann et al., 2009). lungs of the planet e breathing in CO2 and exhaling oxygen. Over With good governance and ecosystem-based management, the the last 200 years, oceans have been responsible for absorbing world’s oceans and coastal regions can play a vital role in tran- nearly half of the increased CO2 emissions produced by burning sitioning to a low-carbon economy that also provides improved fossil fuels (WBGU, 2006) as well as a significant portion of food security and sustainable livelihoods, as well as natural pro- increased greenhouse gas emissions due to land-use change tection from hazards, extreme weather events and threats to hu- (Sabine et al., 2004). Importantly, acting as the largest active carbon man health. sink on earth, ocean absorption of CO2 reduces the rate at which it In this vein, “oceans” and “coasts” must be integrated into the accumulates in the atmosphere, and thus slows the rate of global United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change warming (Denman et al., 2007). (UNFCCC) negotiating text in order to appropriately address both A combination of cyclical processes enables the ocean to absorb the critical role of oceans in the global climate system, and the more carbon than it emits. Three key functions drive this absorp- potential for adaptive management of coastal and marine ecosys- tion. First is the “solubility pump,” whereby CO2 dissolves in sea tems to make significant contributions to both mitigation and water in direct proportion to its concentration in the atmosphere. adaptation (see, e.g., Manado Ocean Declaration, 2009). Co-benefits Second is water temperature: CO2 dissolves more easily in colder gained through ecosystem-based approaches range from absorbing water, thus greater absorption occurs in polar regions. Third is greenhouse gas emissions to building resilience, which can help to mixing of CO2 to deeper levels by ocean currents. Convergence of counter the significant and differential impacts that coastal and carbon-enriched currents at the poles feed into the so-called ocean island communities are facing due to global climate change. While ‘conveyor belt,’ a global current which cycles carbon into ocean the international community must redouble its efforts to enact depths with a very slow (about 1 500 years) turnover back to the major emissions reduction commitments, there is also a need to surface. A ‘biological pump’ begins with carbon captured through focus on scientifically supported natural solutions and ecosystem- photosynthesis in surface water micro-organisms, which make up based approaches that combine climate adaptation and mitiga- 80e90 percent of the biomass in the ocean. These tiny plants and tion, while also helping to improve human health, well-being and animals feed carbon into the food chain, where it is passed along to food security. larger invertebrates, fish, and mammals. When sea plants and an- As summarized in the outcomes of the first Global Conference imals die and part of their organic matter sinks to the ocean floor, it on Oceans, Climate and Security held in May 2012, “climate change is transformed into dissolved forms of carbon. The seabed is the and its ocean impacts produce direct and indirect security impli- largest reservoir of sequestered carbon on the planet. However, the cations” (Peach et al., 2013). Effective governance is needed to efficiency of the oceans to capture carbon relies on the structure ensure that the fundamental and underpinning role that oceans and health of the upper layer marine ecosystem (Williams, 2009). play in the whole biophysical, chemical, and environmental Rising oceanic concentrations of CO2 influence the physiology, resource management cycle is sustained, including helping to development and survival of marine organisms, and thus the basic support water, energy and food security, and contributing to functioning and critical life-support services that ocean ecosystems climate change mitigation and adaptation. This can be seen as the provide will be different under future acidified ocean conditions premise for and the meriting of a clear sense of the need for “ocean (UNEP, 2010). Increased atmospheric CO2 has already raised the security.” acidity of the oceans by approximately 30 percent, making the This article (first drafted in 2010) addresses the issue of ocean ocean more acidic than it has been in the last 650 000 years and security and the challenges that underlie it, from pollution, to affecting marine life such as corals, microscopic plants and animals, fisheries, acidification, coastal development, and climate change. It and fish (WBGU, 2006). Increased ocean acidity is likely to not only provides an overview of the latest facts and concerns on the syn- affect the ‘biological pump’ and ocean food webs, but is also likely ergies between oceans and climate, highlights climate change im- to influence the global carbon cycle, leading to an increase in the pacts on ocean ecosystems and coastal and island communities, rate of global warming (Williams, 2009). Author's personal copy
J. Mendler de Suarez et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37 29
2. Ocean acidification: facts, impacts and action
Ocean acidification is happening now at a rate and to a level not experienced by marine organisms for about 20 million years (Fig. 1, Turley et al., 2006; Blackford and Gilbert, 2007; Pelejero et al., 2010). Mass extinctions have been linked to previous ocean acidi- fication events, from which it takes tens of thousands of years for the ocean to recover. Levels of CO2 produced by humans have lowered the pH (i.e., increased the acidity) of the surface ocean by 0.1 units lower than pre-industrial levels, and are predicted to further decrease surface ocean pH by roughly 0.4 units by 2100 (IPCC, 2001a,b). Decreased calcification and biological function due to ocean acidification are capable of reducing the health of Fig. 2. Combined global land and marine surface temperature records from 1850 to commercially valuable sea life by directly damaging their shells or 2009. by compromising early development and survival (Kurihara et al., 2007, 2009; Turley 2010). Many ecosystems (especially coral 2003, 2002, and 2004. This global temperature record, compiled reefs) are now well outside the conditions under which they have jointly by the Climatic Research Unit and the UK Met. Office Hadley operated for millions of years (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007; Centre, is being continually up-dated and improved, incorporating Pelejero et al., 2010). Even if atmospheric CO2 is stabilized at 450 new and more thorough assessment of errors, recognizing that parts per million (ppm), currently at w400 ppm (NOAA, 2013a,b), it these differ on annual and decadal timescales. is estimated that only about eight percent of existing tropical and Ocean temperature changes are similar to trends in the atmo- subtropical coral reefs will be in waters favorable to shell con- sphere, but differ because of changes in ocean circulation. The large struction. At 550 ppm, coral reefs may dissolve globally (IAP, 2009). global jump in the temperature record that began in the late 1970s Climate change is adversely impacting marine and coastal eco- can be explained by increasing heat content in the oceans (Levitus systems and biodiversity. Further, acidification of the oceans can et al., 2000). As the earth warms, evaporating sea water increases impact food security both directly and indirectly through impacts tropical humidity and winds, causing a rise in tropical heat, mois- on marine ecosystems and food webs, threatening the ocean’s ture, cloud, wind, and energy circulation (Flohn and Kappala, 1989; ability to continue providing important ecosystem services to bil- Flohn et al., 1990). Water vapor is actually the most significant at- lions of people around the world (Worm et al., 2009). Calcification mospheric greenhouse gas, absorbing much more heat than carbon of marine organisms may be inhibited in some instances or pre- dioxide, and driving a positive feedback mechanism that amplifies vented in others, leading to substantial changes in fish stocks global warming driven by fossil fuel emissions. through changes in the species composition of phytoplankton and Global warming also complicates the acidification-induced affecting fish species dependent on coral reefs (WBGU, 2006). Some changes to ocean biological, physical and chemical processes. For of these impacts are already manifestingdin 2008 the harvest of example, a warmer and more acidic ocean will absorb CO2 at a major oyster fisheries in the Pacific Northwest of the United States slower rate, and the effect of water temperatures on currents can had fallen some 80 percent, caused by highly acidified seawater also alter the convergence and subduction of CO2. Between 1981 arresting the development of young shellfish (NOAA, 2011). While and 2004, the Southern Ocean absorbed less CO2 than expected in this case monitoring efforts enabled the restoration of hatcheries under the known increased atmospheric concentrations (Williams, by indicating when managers could schedule production (i.e., when 2009). Overall, the impact of greenhouse gas emissions will grow water quality is good), the bottom line is that no effective means of considerably as the ability of the ocean to absorb CO2 dwindles. This reversing ocean acidification currently exists at a scale sufficient to has serious implications for the sensitivity of global temperature to protect marine biodiversity and food webs. There are no short-term CO2 emissions in particular. solutions to ocean acidification. Substantial perturbations to ocean ecosystems can only be avoided through urgent and rapid re- 4. Sea level rise: facts, impacts, and action ductions in global greenhouse gas emissions and the recognition and integration of this critical issue into the global climate change The degree of sea level rise under different scenarios remains negotiations (UNEP, 2010). one of the most discussed findings of the 2007 IPCC report. Although there is still uncertainty on the specific rate of sea level 3. Ocean warming: impacts and implications rise and its eventual effects on land, especially in low-lying coral atolls, evidence for sea level rise is clearly established in the sci- Life-sustaining ecosystems such as coral reefs are highly sensi- entific literature. Humanitarian impacts are already occurring tive to climate and can suffer severe damage from exposure to through increased storm surge height, frequency and severity of rising ocean temperatures; 20 percent of the world’s coral reefs are flooding in low-lying areas, saline intrusion, erosion of beaches and already estimated to be damaged due to ocean warming (Nurse and other coastal habitats, resulting in loss and damage to infrastruc- Moore, 2007). The oceans have absorbed over 80 percent of the ture, agriculture and the environment (IPCC, 2012). heat added to the climate system since the onset of the industrial Due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic revolution (IPCC, 2007). A steady rise in global temperature over CO2 and other greenhouse gases, the prospect for the future is a the last century, computed as a combination of both land and sea progressively warmer world, with large implications for future sea temperatures, is effectively injecting more energy into global level. Increases in global temperature result in changes in sea level weather systems. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in through the thermal expansion of warming ocean water, some the atmosphere due to human activities are the most likely un- water from melting glaciers and polar ice, and additional water derlying cause of warming in the 20th century (Brohan et al., 2006). from land surface runoff. All three processes are accelerated by The time series in Fig. 2 show the combined global land and global warming. Over the past 100 years the world has warmed by marine surface temperature records from 1850 to 2009, which is about 0.5 C(Brohan et al., 2006) and the rate of sea level rise has the sixth warmest year on record, exceeded since 1998 by 2005, increased from roughly 1.5 mm/year to about 3.3 after 1990, Author's personal copy
30 J. Mendler de Suarez et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37 primarily due to increased rates of warming in the southern and significant share of their population in this most vulnerable tropical oceans (Merrifield and Merrifield, 2009). segment of the coastal zone (McGranahan et al., 2007). Addressing the question, “Sea Level Rise: Not If but When, and Often the most exposed and flood-prone areas of coastal cities How Much?”, the 2007 UN World Population report underscored are the most populatedand where the poorest inhabitants are the alarming prospects of climate change impacts on sea level rise concentrated. With the widespread loss of land in the coastal zone in light of potential consequences for coastal urban areas. Com- as a result of sea level rise and erosion, there will be massive bined with extreme weather events, sea level rise threatens to flood displacement of people and loss of culturally, ethnically, and large parts of coastal areas, introduce salt water into fresh water industrially significant areas (Kelman, 2008). A report produced by supplies and aquifers, and modify coastal ecosystems. These threats the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Hu- to the biodiversity, vital ecological services and natural resources man Security (UNU-EHS) concludes that “if both population and upon which coastal populations depend, will inevitably provoke emissions continue to grow at high rates, the number of people large-scale migration (UNFPA, 2007). flooded per year will reach 21 million by 2030, 55 million by 2050 Small island and coastal developing states are differentially and 370 million by 2100” (UNU-EHS, 2009). In the AsiaePacific impacted by sea level rise, and cannot afford to wait for emissions region alone, it has been estimated that by the year 2100 about 150 reductions to become more acceptable to the industrialized states. million people could be forced to leave their homes due to climate Aggressive mitigation targets and timetables are urgently needed, change (Nicholls, 1995). These direct effects of climate change on along with technical and financial adaptation assistance for the people could trigger regional or international conflict over needs as most vulnerable countries and peoples. fundamental as drinking water and space. Coastal populations, especially when concentrated in large ur- 4.1. Coastal and island populations are on the frontline of climate ban areas, burden the health of coastal ecosystems, many of which change are already degraded. Protecting coastal peoples from risks related to climate change requires urgent mitigation of greenhouse gas Climate change and its varied impacts threaten thousands of emissions, as well as modification of the prevailing forms of coastal islands and 183 coastal nations (McGranahan et al., 2007), development, and a reversal of current coastal migration trends. encompassing some of the world’s most significant biodiversity, These measures require concerted vision, commitment and a long while compounding existing pressures on fisheries and ecosystems. lead time (UNFPA, 2009). Without urgent intervention now, coastal Coastal and inland communities with ocean-based livelihoods are peoples worldwide, and in particular the small island states, will differentially impacted by sea level rise, the migration of important suffer severe and unfairly disproportional impacts from ocean marine species including global fish stocks, and ocean acidification. warming, sea level rise, extreme weather events and ocean Uncontrolled coastal development and increasing uses of the acidification. ocean are threatening sensitive and important ecosystems and Small island developing states (SIDS) already face significant marine resources, while growing numbers of people are exposed to challenges, many of which stand to worsen with global climate coastal hazards that are exacerbated by climate variability and change. Water resources will be increasingly stressed in the future change. Today coastal cities large and small are growing 20 percent for some areas, whereas by 2080 in Pacific atoll countries flood risk faster and with 10e15 percent higher densities than any other cities is expected to be on the order of 200 times greater than at present in the world. At present, 15 of the world’s 20 megacities lie along (Nicholls et al., 1999). For many SIDS, life-sustaining ecosystems the coast (UN Habitat, 2009). Further, the next few decades will see such as coral reefs are highly climate-sensitive and can suffer severe an unprecedented scale of urban growth in the developing world. damage from exposure to sea temperatures as low as 1 C above the This will be particularly notable in Africa and Asia, where the urban seasonal maximum (Nurse and Moore, 2007). In many SIDS population will double between 2000 and 2030, at which point the extreme events such as hurricanes and floods are causing damage towns and cities of the developing world will make up 81 percent of in excess of 20 percent of GDP (Payet et al., 2008, 2009). In 1993, 30 urban humanity. In view of climate change and the considerable percent of the forested area on the Santa Cruz Islands was lost urban concentrations at or near sea level, proactive policies for during one cyclone event (Nurse et al., 2001). Hurricane Ivan’s resilience and sustainability are crucial (UNFPA, 2007). impact on Grenada in 2004 caused losses in the agricultural sector In 2003, about 3 billion people (half the world’s population at equivalent to 10 percent of GDP (OECS, 2004). that time) lived within 200 km of a coastlinedby 2025, that figure Many SIDS would be unable to adapt effectively to climate is likely to double (Creel, 2003). These areas and peoples are change impacts associated with a global 2e3 C mean temperature exposed to natural hazards from both land and sea (Wolanski, increase, given the potential impacts on their economies, infra- 2010). Coastal settlements in lower-income countries are more structure and overall human well-being (IPCC, 2007). In Kiribati, a vulnerable and lower-income groups living on flood plains are most 50 cm rise in sea level and a reduction in rainfall of 25 percent vulnerable of all. Despite lower urbanization levels, Africa and Asia would reduce the freshwater lens (floating freshwater store) by 65 have much larger proportions of their urban populations in coastal percent (World Bank, 2000). With a 50 cm increase in sea level, zones than North America or Europe. The 10 countries with the over one-third of the beaches in the Caribbean would be lost largest number of people living in these vulnerable, low-elevation (UNDP, 2007). zones include, in descending order: China, India, Bangladesh, Sea level rise leads to the disappearance of beaches and low- Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, the United States, Thailand and lying islands (IPCC, 2007). In Maldives, a 1 m rise in sea level the Philippines. Most of the countries with large populations in the could amount to the complete disappearance of the nation. Former coastal zone are large countries with heavily populated deltas, with Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed said that he intended to developing states on average having a higher proportion of people create a “sovereign wealth fund” to purchase a new land in case and a larger percentage of urban dwellers living in the lowest-lying global warming causes the country to disappear into the sea of coastal areas. It is no less critical to note that the 44 small island (Telegraph, 2008). President Anote Tong of Kiribati says his coun- states1 represent a disproportionate number of the countries with a try’s decision in 2009 to establish what was, at the time, the world’s largest marine protected area (the Phoenix Islands) was a gift to humanity that should become the basis of an endowment to sus- 1 Throughout this paper, “states” refers to sovereign states. tain the people should rising sea levels caused by climate change Author's personal copy
J. Mendler de Suarez et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37 31 already claiming more and more of the island nation’s land task force was subsequently established by President Obama to threaten the end of the Kiribati way of life. investigate how the region’s resilience can be enhanced, and is Kiribati’s elevation is no more than 2 m above sea level. Its fresh working to finalize a set of recommendations that include inte- water comes from aquifers, but saltwater intrusion into the aquifers gration of natural and built systems (HUD, 2013). is expected to make the islands uninhabitable before rising water The insurance sector in many cases can serve as the proverbial overtakes settlements. With the loss of homes and the islands’ canary in the mine: it points out the most severe hazard areas, and ability to sustain life, Working with other countries to plan for the in recognizing the link between a changing climate and increasing gradual evacuation of his nation of 110 360 people, President Tong losses, also exposes threats to the health of insurers’ investments. has struck deals with Australia and New Zealand to train a small Managing and transferring risks are the first response of the in- number of I-Kiribati to perform jobs those countries have trouble surance industry, and rising insurance premiums and exclusions filling, while exploring other options for relocating 1000 I-Kiribati a are in some cases already indicators of climate change. Insurance year for the next 20 years. “We want to move our people with as companies are also changing e some are seizing business oppor- much dignity as possible. For us it is not a matter of economics, it is tunities for products aimed specifically at reducing climate-related a matter of survival” (Tong, 2004). risks. Corporations and institutional investors have begun to consider public policies needed to encourage investments in clean 5. Extreme weather events: facts, impacts and action energy on a scale commensurate with the heightened climate and energy crises (Epstein and Mills, 2005; Appiott et al., 2009). While no single event is conclusive evidence of climate change, The unparalleled protective function of coastal ecosystems, from the relentless pace of severe weather e prolonged droughts, coral reefs and seagrass beds to mangrove forests and estuaries, is intense heat waves, violent windstorms, more wildfires and more deserving of special attention and special protection policies, frequent “100-year” floods e is indicative of a changing climate. particularly in light of the documented protection that mangrove Although the association among greater weather volatility, natural areas in particular have provided in recent extreme events. FAO cycles and climate change is as yet an imprecise science, the rise in cites lessons from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, earlier efforts to mega-catastrophes and prolonged widespread heat waves are, at conserve and rehabilitate the mangroves of the Ayeyarwady Delta, the very least, a harbinger of what can be expected in a changing and cyclone Sidr that struck southern Bangladesh in November and unstable climate (Epstein and Mills, 2005). 2007, where the Sunderbans forests played a crucial role in the The most recent report of the IPCC concludes that it is very likely mitigation of the deadly effects of the cyclone (FAO, 2008a). that an increase in ocean temperatures will result in increased Discouraging further expansion of settlements close to the coast frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurri- and maintaining healthy mangroves and other coastal forests are canes and heat waves (IPCC, 2007). Scientific research has important measures to protect coastal assets and populations. concluded that human influences on climate are indeed increasing Reestablishment of damaged infrastructure and communication the likelihood of certain types of extreme events (Gutowski et al., facilities is urgently required and measures should be put in place 2008). Rising variability in the occurrence and magnitude of hur- to facilitate sound coastal area planning to maintain the resilience ricane, cyclone, erosion and storm surge events due to climate of coastal areas and reduce the vulnerability of coastal communities change are putting coastal areas at greater risk. Sea level rise and an and ecosystems. Coastal planning to avoid development in increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events are linked vulnerable areas, and maintenance of coastal vegetation as buffer to severe impacts on infrastructure, such as closure of roads, air- zones are important measures, but will not be enough to protect ports and bridges, and damage to port facilities. Extreme temper- against all storms (FAO, 2008a). atures and flooding associated with climate change can result in While recognizing that all ecosystems and species are impor- heat stress, increased vector- and water-borne diseases, as well as tant, some marine ecosystems are critical, so the designation of infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses (WHO, 2005). protected areas and reserves are important elements in a Over the past 50 years, great weather disasters have caused comprehensive approach to mitigation (through the management some 800 000 fatalities and over a trillion dollars in economic loss, of natural coastal carbon sinks) and adaptation (in protecting key and in the last decade the damage wreaked by such disasters elements of ecosystem function). Marine protected areas (MPAs) reached record levels (ECA, 2009). Warm ocean waters fuel cy- have demonstrated significant results in terms of more biomass, clones (hurricanes). Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in more animals, larger animals, more species, more robust dynamics 2008, caused upwards of 150 000 deaths. In the United States, and greater resilience within their borders. MPAs and networks of Hurricane Katrina killed hundreds and sickened thousands, created MPAs have an important role in addressing the increased uncer- one million displaced persons, and sent ripples throughout the tainty regarding the responses of organisms and changes to eco- global economy, exposing the vulnerabilities of all nations to systems resulting from the effects of climate change (Smith et al., climate extremes. 2009) as a means to help maintain and restore ecological resil- Katrina was one of the most devastating hurricanes e and the ience and capacity to provide ecological goods and services costliest e in the history of the United States, producing cata- (Mumby and Harborne, 2010; Babcock et al., 2010). To meet present strophic damage estimated at $75 billion in the New Orleans area goals established to address global marine biodiversity loss, climate and along the Mississippi coast (Farris et al 2007). While Hurricane change, ocean acidification, human health and food security chal- Katrina and its destructive aftermath in 2005 were unprecedented, lenges, protection of the world’s coasts and oceans needs to in- Hurricanes Dennis, Rita, and Wilma were also powerful hurricanes crease in scale, levels, representation and rate (Laffoley, 2010). affecting the Gulf of Mexico that year. A USGS study of these storms Restoring mangroves and creating new mangroves are “soft” highlighted the importance of restoring resilience to the Gulf of technologies using local knowledge, tailored to local conditions. Mexico coast, and the need to integrate science that supports Empirical evidence exists for scientifically designating areas to restoration of natural landscapes with intelligent coastal planning afford protection from different types of natural hazards. For (Farris et al 2007). This lesson was also made clear in 2012 along the example, typhoon winds would require 100e300 m of mangroves, Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern coast of the U.S., when Hurricane or 1e2 km of coastal forests. Typhoon waves need 500e1 000 m of Sandy caused extensive damage from strong winds and coastal mangroves to protect small coastal dykes, but will fail if the coast is storm surge, with estimated costs of $65 billion (NOAA, 2013a,b). A naturally eroding. Storm surge protection is afforded by 200 m of Author's personal copy
32 J. Mendler de Suarez et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37 coastal forest. While mangroves can weaken currents, they will not (MacLeod et al, 2011). Complicating these feedback loops is the change much the storm surge height; however, mangroves will potential release of methane to the atmosphere from Arctic shallow speed up draining out the flooded area after a surge. As such buffer seafloor permafrost, which, if released, will further exacerbate areas cannot provide complete protection, incorporation of a global warming. ‘sacrificial zone’ is advisable. The specifics of management plans, as Conditions are also warming at the southern pole. From 1996 to part of a regional plan to reduce the risk of loss of life, property and 2006 there was a 75 percent increase in ice loss in Antarctica infrastructure, will depend on the severity of the natural hazards, (NASA, 2008). This has large implications for all humanity, and the bathymetry, the climate, the local land use and vegetation, and especially for coastal and island populations around the globe. Ice the available options to survive extreme events (Wolanski, 2010). coverage at the poles is crucial not only for ice-dependent species Investment in protection and restoration of healthy coastal but also for important global processes. For example, winter sea ice ecosystems is a strategy with significant co-benefits that requires acts as a “lid” that prevents CO2 from returning to the atmosphere, urgent policy support worldwide. Coastal buffer zones and and the formation of sea ice produces brines that promote the mangrove areas, in particular, offer multiple benefits beyond sinking of CO2-laden surface water (MCCPI, 2009). Ice sheet melt dissipating the impact of cyclones and storms; in addition to will be the primary contributor to future sea level rise, and reduced filtering nutrients, trapping sediments and providing protection sea ice will amplify warming, which in turn will be amplified over from erosion, these critical ecosystems harbor valuable and pro- land. Glaciers also have been retreating worldwide for at least the ductive biodiversity and serve as fisheries breeding grounds and last century, and the rate of retreat has increased in the past decade refugia, with the potential to also provide resilience in sustaining (Lemke et al., 2007). the food security and livelihoods of millions of coastal people in the Observed polar temperature changes can be directly attributed face of climate variability, extremes and change. Regional early to human activitiesdthey are not solely explained by internal warning and early action disaster prevention and response systems, climate variability or natural climate drivers (Gillett et al., 2008). including effective regional communication and networked coastal Abrupt changes such as the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice transport infrastructure, must also be implemented as necessary Sheet could occur with atmospheric CO2 concentrations of between measures to protect lives in a future characterized by increasing 450 ppm and 550 ppm and a 2 C temperature increase. This event frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to a would cause global sea levels to rise by between 4 and 6 m (IPCC, changing climate. 2001a,b).
5.1. Emerging scientific information indicates climate change 7. Effects of ocean warming on coral reefs impacts will be more extensive and more disastrous than forecast by the last IPCC report It is important to note that levels of atmospheric carbon di- oxide (as noted above, currently measured at w400 ppm) of In its most recent report (2007), the IPCC estimated that sea 450 ppm are now widely considered to be unsustainable. New level would rise by between 18 and 59 cm this century. This es- scientific analyses suggest that we must head toward long-term timate is very conservative. The IPCC looked at individual contri- levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide of no more than 350 ppm. butions to sea level rise from thermal expansion of the oceans and This growing body of information is based on evidence that many glacier melt. We now know there is more to sea level rise than ecosystems such as coral reefs will be fundamentally changed that. Recent studies conclude that a mean sea level rise of 0.5 me (Veron et al., 2009), as well as strong paleological evidence that 0.8 m over 1990 levels by 2100 is likely, and a rise of more than suggests the complete breakdown of the landlocked ice sheets of 1 m in that time is possible (Richardson et al., 2009). A recent Greenland and the Western Antarctic (Naish et al., 2009)at paper published in Geophysical Research Letters used a statistical higher emissions levels. This all points to the conclusion that model based on 300 years of global sea level data to look at the emission levels must approach zero over the next few decades cumulative effects of both natural and man-made changes on sea (Meinshausen et al., 2009). level rise. Because the model faithfully reproduces past sea level, Since the 1980s, corals have undergone unprecedented high the researchers are confident in estimates of future sea level rise temperature mass bleaching and mortality. Locations, intensity, between 0.6 and 1.6 m by the end of this century (Jevrejeva et al., and severity of bleaching are predictable using a sea surface tem- 2010). The Copenhagen consensus also considered compelling perature (SST) “HotSpot” method. For example, current observa- evidence that sea level rise will be at least 1 m by 2100, with the tions using the Hotspot method indicate large patches of warm possibility of even greater levels of sea level rise highly likely waters around the Seychelles with on the ground confirmation of (Allison et al., 2009). coral bleaching in many areas (NOAA, 2010). The recurrence of coral bleaching, since a devastating event in 1998, is further evidence 6. Melting of ice in both Arctic and Antarctic polar regions that the planet is warming and delayed action will only reduce impacts the rest of the world coastal security in many parts of the world. If current trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue, many Impacts on polar regions, including rising air temperatures, of the remaining reefs, already stressed by rising ocean acidifica- melting sea ice, warming of the surface ocean, snow cover decline, tion, will be lost to coral bleaching over the next 20e40 years warming permafrost, accelerating glacial retreat, and melting of the (Wilkinson, 2008). Even the most optimistically low future atmo- Greenland Ice Sheet in the Arctic will have significant global con- spheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., 450 ppm) could be high enough to sequences. These include impacts on Northern Hemisphere cause carbonate coral reef ecosystems to dissolve (Hoegh-Guldberg weather and climate, changes to the global ocean circulation sys- et al., 2007), large areas of polar waters to become corrosive to the tem, global sea level rise, and changes to the capacity of some re- shells of some key marine species, and marine ecosystems to gions to act as a carbon sink. Arctic marine systems currently become nearly unrecognizable (Turley 2010). absorb and store a substantial amount of carbon, but the continu- The most rapidly warming areas are potential sites of regional ation of this service depends critically on Arctic climate change coral reef ecosystem collapse. Corals may survive in areas where impacts. Along with a decreased sink capacity, warming and warming is slowest due to increased upwelling. However, they may changes in surface hydrology will cause a greater release of carbon only persist in marginal coral communities, not constructional coral Author's personal copy
J. Mendler de Suarez et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37 33 reefs, due to increased competition from algae and filter feeders. will accrue to oceans, coasts, and SIDS by agreeing to the most The trends indicated by measured temperature records suggest stringent greenhouse gas reduction targets and timetables. ‘Blue that negative effects on coral reef ecosystems will be much more Carbon’ policy and a funded implementation program should be imminent than predicted by current models of climate change raised up to at least the level of importance of the ‘REDD’ pro- (Goreau et al., 2005). gram (UN Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries). 8. Impacts on biodiversity and fish stocks Nations should collectively commit to carrying out adaptation through integrated and ecosystem-based management measures Global warming is implicated in species migrations, which can and institutions, and within international climate change policy further exacerbate the impacts of dangerous invasive species that instruments, to create mechanisms that allow the future use of cause disease and broad scale environmental degradation. As carbon credits for marine and coastal ecosystem carbon capture invasive species move into other ecosystems, they can cause and effective storage. At the same time, there is an urgent need serious harm even before direct impacts of climate change are to develop international governance guidelines to ensure the observable (Lotze et al., 2006). Changes in fish stocks have begun utmost precaution and rigorous evaluation of social, environ- to be observed, with uncertain implications for coastal countries mental and humanitarian impacts in research and potential use with significant investment in fisheries. For example, failure of of ocean-related geo-engineering mitigation measures. some seasonally migrating species to return to the Benguela The following actions are recommended for the consideration of current e where sea temperatures have risen about 1 C over the national and international decisionmakers: last decade e can result in the inability of South African and Proceed with utmost caution to ensure continued functioning of Namibian fish-processing facilities to operate at economically oceans in sustaining life on Earth: viable production levels (FAO, 2011). Climate change will have far-reaching effects on living marine Adopt the most stringent and rapid reductions in greenhouse resources and the people that depend upon them, including im- gas emissions, to avoid disastrous consequences on oceans and pacts on ecosystems, societies and economies. The ability of people coastal communities around the world. Compelling scientific to access fish supplies will become an increasingly important issue evidence indicates that to safeguard the essential role of oceans for sustainable development. According to a report of an expert in regulating climate and sustain the productive function of workshop convened by the FAO, “some 42 million people work marine ecosystems, adoption of policy with peak atmospheric directly in the sector, with the great majority in developing coun- carbon dioxide levels no higher than 450 ppm, and commit- tries. Adding those who work in processing, marketing, and dis- ment to bring CO2 levels below 350 ppm with urgency are tribution and supply industries, the sector supports several required. hundred million livelihoods. Aquatic foods have high nutritional Give special consideration to SIDS and especially vulnerable quality, contributing 20 percent or more of average per capita an- coastal nations. imal protein intake for more than 2.8 billion people, mostly from Promote management of natural carbon sinks in coastal areas developing countries” (FAO, 2011). Demands on fisheries resources to protect biodiversity, save and restore global fisheries, are only expected to grow, yet climate change impacts may recognize the deep links between ecosystem degradation and constrain this key food resource for billions of people and some 500 rural poverty, and change the ‘world view’ on the economic million people that directly or indirectly rely on the industry value of marine ecosystems and biodiversity to sustainable (FAO, 2008b). development of a low-or-no carbon ‘green economy’ and a A recent report produced by the Global Partnership Climate, ‘blue’ society. Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA) presents key messages that need Establish global governance frameworks for ocean-related geo- to be addressed, including that aquatic ecosystems are critical to engineering research and potential use. both food security and economic prosperity, and the billions of Manage natural ecosystems to boost ecological resilience in a people that benefit from fisheries and food products. PaCFA notes changing climate. Protecting ecosystem components such as the urgent need to better understand the risks to aquatic and biological diversity and ecologically important species have coastal systems, and to address the changes that are occurring, and been shown to improve resilience and recovery from climate that are expected to occur (PaCFA, 2009). Many regions also have change impacts across many ecosystems. conducted studies to address these changes at the regional level Gather and exchange information, improve public awareness (e.g., APFIC, 2011). and early warning system capacity for climate change impacts on marine ecosystems, communities, fisheries and other in- 9. Crafting a comprehensive policy and action agenda for dustries, as well as emergency preparedness, monitoring, and oceans and climate forecasting of extreme events and ocean variability. Enhance, at regional and national levels, exchange of lessons This article has highlighted the critical role of ocean and coastal learned and best practices, and climate vulnerability assess- ecosystems in effectively addressing climate change. It is urgent ment of oceans and coasts in order to facilitate the imple- that the international community come together to take decisive mentation of adaptation measures. action to protect the central role of the oceans on Earth and to Cooperate in furthering marine scientific research and sus- manage climate change risks to coastal and island peoples. A taining integrated ocean observation systems; promote edu- comprehensive and synergistic program of complementary mea- cation and public awareness; and collaborate to improve sures is both necessary and achievable. understanding of the role of oceans in climate change and vice- Within the UNFCCC process, the international ocean com- versa e including effects on marine ecosystems, marine munity must help arm national negotiators with knowledge of biodiversity and coastal communities e especially in devel- the central role of oceans in climate, in order to ensure that oping countries and small island states. references to oceans and coasts are fully and appropriately in- Invite scientific communities and institutions to further tegrated into the UNFCCC negotiating text. Governments should develop reliable scientific information on the roles of coastal take into account the very serious climate change impacts that wetland, mangrove, algae, seagrass and coral reef ecosystems Author's personal copy
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in reducing the effects of climate change, and share knowledge and ocean management approaches, including flexible of best practices based on the dynamic relationship between forward-looking adaptation planning. oceans and climate (Yudhoyono, 2009). Protect coastal populations and infrastructure in the coastal zone including through climate index insurance, and the It is also essential to emphasize the positive contributions that expansion of a viable insurance market. oceans can and do play in the mitigation of global warming, including Provide sufficient support for sustained capacity development these key aspects: and technology exchange to equip coastal communities to adapt and also deploy and monitor appropriate mitigation Greenhouse gas stabilization targets should reflect recent measures using the oceans. marine findings and observations (e.g., on ocean acidification) The UNFCCC should specifically provide capacity development and fully account for the crucial role of the ocean in the global for adaptation and mitigation in developing nations and SIDS carbon cycle. (GOPD, 2009). Marine and coastal ecosystems are vital global carbon stores, but their role in carbon management has been largely ignored 9.1. Action agenda: restoring the power of oceans and coasts for in international climate change discourse (Thompson, 2008; humanitarian, environmental, and climate security Laffoley and Grimsdith, 2009). Carbon capture and storage (CCS) via injection into geological What is the cost of humanitarian and environmental security on formations in the seabed is considered a potential climate the frontlines of climate change, in the differentially impacted change mitigation measure. However, this kind of geo- coastal and island regions? engineering needs to be studied and, if ever deployed, highly Current estimates of adaptation costs in coastal areas and small regulated and monitored to ensure safety and efficacy. island states are woefully inadequate, as are the adaptation re- Further, some geo-engineering approaches, such as iron fertil- sources currently available (Hale et al., 2009). There is an urgent ization or direct injection of CO2 into the water column, should need to provide sufficient funding to support adaptation in the 183 be discouraged due to the potential for irreversible or unfore- coastal and island countries on the frontline of climate change. seen harm to sensitive marine organisms and ecosystems. The UNFCCC has estimated that the cost of coastal zone adap- Renewed international effort is needed to transition from fossil tation will be roughly $11 billion per year. However, this estimate fuels to renewable energy. Including reducing fossil fuel sub- used low predictions of sea level rise and does not include the sidies and dramatic increasing research and development of impact potential of increased storm intensity, so actual costs are renewables. This may require international collaboration along likely to be much higher (UNFCCC, 2007; Parry et al, 2009). the lines of a “Marshall Plan” for concerted global conversion to Meanwhile, the Adaptation Fund, established by the Parties to the renewable energy. UNFCCC to finance concrete adaptation projects and programs in National governments should encourage the development of developing countries, only expected total available resources of ocean-based renewable energy industries, e.g., wind power, $250e350 million by 2012 (Adaptation Fund, 2010). currents, tides, and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC), While the UNFCCC had estimated the overall cost of adaptation and through the utilization of marine spatial planning give up to 2030 will range from $49e171 billion per year, subsequent appropriate priority to marine renewable energy, with estimates place this number as much as three times higher. It seems consistent and dependable funding for large-scale develop- that some of the metrics used for estimating costs in the industri- ment and implementation. alized countries can produce artificially low estimates when Blue carbon could be traded and handled in a way similar to applied to developing countries. For example, in Africa and Asia, the green carbon (e.g. rainforests) and mangroves could be readily cost of adaptation infrastructure has been estimated between $22 entered into emission and climate mitigation protocols, along and $371 million in Africa, and in Asia from $1.9 to $32.4 billion. with other carbon-binding ecosystems. There is a need to Although Africa and Asia have very high levels of vulnerability to establish baselines and metrics for environmentally sound climate change with significant coastal populations at risk, these ocean and littoral carbon sequestration and to establish estimates are extremely low because so much of these regions have appropriate monitoring and verification as well as enhanced little or no infrastructure in place to “adapt” (UNFCCC, 2007; Parry carbon finance mechanisms. et al, 2009). Worldwide, the cost of adaptation in developing countries has been estimated to range from $9e109 billion annually Finally, adaptation strategies in coastal communities and island (World Bank, 2006; UNDP, 2007). nations must be developed and deployed with sufficient financing, and Resilient infrastructure needs notwithstanding, there are exist- include efforts to: ing and proven processes through which adaptation can be oper- ationalized using ecosystem-based approaches, including through Promote and fund nature-based adaptation strategies, through integrated coastal and ocean management institutions and pro- Governments, to preserve, restore and increase the resilience cesses at local, national, and regional scales. Adaptation must take of key coastal and marine ecosystems, in order to secure many forms, using a variety of measures (soft, hard, and floating). It shoreline protection, food security, maintenance of water should focus on the need to preserve and restore natural ecosys- quality, income and livelihoods, and the full suite of natural tems that can provide cost-effective protection against climate resource system services and productivity on which vulnerable change threats, as well as the need to conserve biodiversity and communities depend. make ecosystems more resilient to climate change so that they can Implement adaptation measures through integrated coastal continue to provide the full suite of vital natural services and ocean management institutions and processes at local, (Kullenberg et al., 2008). Integrated coastal and ocean management national, and regional scales (e.g., Large Marine Ecosystems, institutions should craft approaches that include flexible adapta- Regional Seas). tion plans and access to, as well as expansion of, a viable insurance Improve preparedness, resilience and adaptive capacities of market in order to transfer those climate risks which cannot be communities that depend on marine and coastal resources for avoided or otherwise reduced. The protection of coastal pop- their livelihoods and food security through integrated coastal ulations and infrastructure in the coastal zone should include Author's personal copy
J. Mendler de Suarez et al. / Ocean & Coastal Management 90 (2014) 27e37 35 insurance-based mechanisms that can help to address low proba- systems, while building disaster preparedness and response ca- bility but high impact events (Osborn and Kleinen, 2008). pacity and resilience in coastal regions. A collaborative international public and private sector assess- In addition to funding, there is a crucial need to support sus- ment of the economics of climate adaptation reports that if current tained human and institutional capacity building for those charged development trends continue to 2030, representative locations with enacting and implementing measures to secure the resilience studied stand to lose 1e12 percent of GDP as a direct result of and health of oceans and coastal people and the ecosystems they current climate patterns, with low-income populations losing an depend on. This includes capacitation of decisionmakers in order to even greater portion of their income e while under a scenario of better bridge science and policy, both to inform the enactment of accelerated climate change, today’s climate-related losses could go coherent ocean and coastal climate and development policy and to up to 200 percent of GDP within the next 20 years (ECA, 2009). mobilize the necessary budgets for decisive action. Perhaps one of the most important outstanding questions, with We must move beyond the constraints of fragmented institu- over half of humanity now living in coastal regions, is should not at tional and legal frameworks, which are not delivering on global least half the funds made available for adaptation go to coastal and development objectives, reversing environmental degradation or island peoples and countries? curtailing climate change. The measures proposed in the preceding Recognizing the potential of the oceans for mitigation (Snyder section can bring coherence to new and more nimble forward- et al., 2009), with all of the co-benefits of ecosystem-based adap- looking policy frameworks that reflect the best available knowl- tation approaches in building ecosystem and coastal community edge, and are flexible enough to quickly adjust. resilience (Lafferty, 2003; Mumby and Harborne, 2010; Babcock We need to better adapt governance both as new scientific et al., 2010), the time is now ripe for the establishment of a knowledge becomes available, and in taking on board lessons robust Blue Carbon program to complement the terrestrial ‘REDD’ learned while implementation of policy measures is underway. mechanism, to help channel necessary resources to vulnerable Information flows between decisionmakers and the people and coastal and island regions. Developing a Blue Carbon program institutions on the ground who are responsible for acting on and would focus on creating financial compensation and other positive carrying out policies should provide feedback to inform adjust- incentives for countries willing and able to reduce emissions ments, and course corrections that continually improve ocean and through the conservation and restoration of healthy coastal eco- coastal management and governance. systems. A Blue Carbon program would secure emissions re- Opportunities for consultative dialogue processes, such as those ductions while simultaneously conserving biodiversity and facilitated by the Global Ocean Forum and its partners, enable sustaining valuable ecosystem services. To implement such a pro- ocean leaders to explore ways to reduce costs, increase benefits and gram, there is a need to estimate CO2 absorption by the oceans accelerate results through the harmonization of national, regional under the various emissions reduction scenarios relevant to the and international policies and actions. These dialogue processes are UNFCCC process. crucial in enabling ocean leaders to envision and chart together a Finally, key to consider are the kinds of processes and steps that course that can secure our collective future. are needed to take forward the suite of actions recommended for Consensus is sought, on behalf of almost four billion coastal consideration by national and international decisionmakers. and island people at increasing risk due to climate variability and Enhanced coordination mechanisms are fundamental to ensure change, to mobilize the international community in endorsing coherence across sectors, agencies, institutions and civil society, concerted action, with sufficient financial commitments to protect, from the local community through international levels. Harmoni- restore and fully leverage the natural climate-regulating functions zation of policies across sectors and regions is a challenge that can of the global ocean and its coastal zones, in order to secure the be addressed through support for consultative dialogue processes twin objectives of mitigating and adapting to climate change. The among diverse actors and stakeholders at relevant levels. ocean and coastal peoples of the world have tremendous potential Regarding geo-engineering techniques for global climate inter- to lead the way in deploying ecosystem-based approaches that not vention and remediation, we do not yet have sufficient knowledge only form the most cost-effective and risk-reducing basis for of the risks associated with these methods, intended and unin- equitable and sustainable development toward a low-carbon tended impacts, or indeed their efficacy in reducing the rate future, but can also establish productive and resilient founda- of climatic change. Thus, to assess whether they should or tions for food security, environmental security, health and liveli- should not be implemented further research is essential. Climate hoods security, and security from forced migration and conflict intervention and remediation research and possible implementa- potential e in short for comprehensive humanitarian, environ- tion should proceed in a timely, safe, ethical and transparent mental and ocean security. manner, addressing social, humanitarian and environmental issues (Lampitt, 2010). It is imperative that countries that lack the means Acknowledgments to research or deploy geo-engineering methods, but which could potentially be impacted (for better or for worse), are active par- The assistance of Joseph Appiott and Gwénaëlle Hamon in the ticipants in the possible creation of a governance regime for geo- preparation of this article is acknowledged with sincere thanks. engineering research and potential deployment. 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