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International Gas Union Sees Next LNG Wave Facing Difficult Decisions

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International Gas Union Sees Next LNG Wave Facing Difficult Decisions p1-6_LNG 3 29/05/2020 14:51 Page 1 36 pages essential LNG news! June 2020 In this issue: 1 International Gas Union International Gas Union sees next sees next LNG wave facing difficult decisions LNG wave facing difficult decisions Industry’s leading body charts road ahead and issues for final Industry’s leading body charts road ahead and issues for final investments in projects investments in projects The International Gas Union Gas said a 4 How natural gas and “huge wave” of liquefied natural gas LNG have fared in 2020 export project liquefaction capacity is as problems rose and currently still in the pre-Final prices then converged Investment Decision stage and when International Energy Agency gives given the go-ahead would provide more a rundown on effects of Covid-19 on supply and demand clean fuel especially for Asian nations. “Most of this capacity is in the US and Canada, and a significant proportion in 7 A round-up of latest Africa and the Middle East (93.3 million events, company and tonnes per annum each),” said the IGU industry news President Joo-Myung Kang in his For the Record introduction to the 2020 annual report. Existing and planned LNG import terminal and utilization through 2025 19 European regasification Charter is at crossroads but The IGU was established in 1931 and Australia and the US,” noted the IGU. 14.2 MTPA, while India added 7.5 MTPA. plans point five years brings together natural gas associations The IGU, whose next three-yearly A total of 37 markets are now equipped to ahead after regional and corporations, including 91 charter World Gas Conference is scheduled to import LNG. cargo upsurge members and 51 associate members, take place in Daegu, South Korea in June Long-term and short-term players representing 97 percent of the global gas 2021 as the 28th of the series, also Construction face capacity and storage industry. reported on the LNG shipping industry A further 120.4 MTPA of regas capacity limitations over time Its agenda is to promote natural gas keeping pace with the growth of is currently under construction (as of use in a safe manner for global economic infrastructure. February 2020), including 12 FSRUs. 20 Sembcorp Marine of progress. “Another 42 new vessels were added, Around 47 MTPA of capacity is Singapore explains The IGU said LNG continued to play bringing the total to 541 active vessels at expected to be on line by the end of 2020, latest strategy and fends a key role in improving air quality in the end of 2019,” said the report. potentially adding at least two new off rumours of merger markets such as China as annual global importing nations, Ghana and the with local rival Keppel trade increased to 354.7 million tonnes. Flexible Philippines. Shipyard is building reputations on “This was on the back of increased “The fleet includes 34 floating storage There was also steady growth last LNG-powered vessels, bunkering exports from the USA, Russia and and regasification units (FSRUs) and year, specifically for floating regas ships and floating LNG storage Australia as well as Algeria and Egypt,” four floating storage units (FSUs), terminals with FSRUs being added in added the report. demonstrating the continued interest in Jamaica, Turkey and Bangladesh. 21 Carrier charter market “The Asia-Pacific region and Asia flexible solutions to enable markets to In addition to the traditional risks levels for LNG remain again imported the most volumes, start importing LNG or to increase their liquefaction project developers face, the steady as more Russian together accounting for almost 70 percent LNG imports as energy demand grows,” currently oversupplied LNG market is cargoes to head for Asia of global LNG imports,” it said. it stated. deterring many projects. Broker reports witness effects of However, the largest change in Regasification capacity continued to This LNG “glut” is largely driven by demand destruction and slight comeback from dual shock to sector imports was observed in Europe, absorb the increase in supply and meet the rapid growth in LNG supplies, coming where the UK, France, Spain, the demand growth, adding 23.4 MTPA in mostly from Australia, the USA and 23 World Carrier Fleet: Netherlands, Italy and Belgium 2019 and reaching 821 MTPA by Russia over the past few years. Details of LNG vessels together imported 32MT more than in February 2020. the previous year. “Six new terminals began importing Essential “Furthermore, 70.8 MTPA of cargoes in 2019, and three expansion Demand for LNG is not responding in 31 Tables of import and liquefaction capacity was sanctioned, projects were completed,” said the IGU. tandem to enable a balanced market at export LNG terminals and 41.8 MTPA in capacity was brought The Asia-Pacific took the lion’s share of an acceptable price to all, resulting in a and plants worldwide on-stream in 2019, mostly from Russia, regas capacity additions with a total of current lower price environment. p1-6_LNG 3 29/05/2020 14:51 Page 2 DEVELOPMENTS “Essential to reaching FID on an LNG project is the treatment of risk; assessing journal and quantifying its likelihood and potential severity,” said the IGU. “LNG projects have long business development cycles, which may span a decade (or much more) from upstream resource discovery through to FID, The World’s Leading LNG publication followed by the four-plus year EPC phase, involving many teams from different Maritime Content Ltd partners and contractors,” explained the How production capacity may still increase out to 2025 2 Prospect Road report. St Albans AL1 2AX “This increases the complexity of the think through this uncertainty from the said the report. However, the current United Kingdom www.LNGjournal.com overall task and adds many risk mid-2020s onwards,” said the report. wave of additional supply and persistent +44 (0)20 7253 2700 components,” it added. “While it is relatively easy to see weak An oversupplied market is challenging what’s coming on the supply side, given global prices are challenging new Publisher for new LNG export projects, and the long lead times for liquefaction projects seeking FIDs and the current Stuart Fryer developers need to brace themselves for a projects, predicting demand is much more slump in LNG prices could lead to these Editor continued glut as further production is difficult,” it added. decisions being delayed. John McKay added, outpacing global demand The IGU noted that the significant “There are more than a dozen [email protected] potentially for another two years. number of FIDs which have been taken in liquefaction plants scheduled for FIDs Advertising 2019 imply that developers believe the in 2020 and if buyers remain hesitant David Jeffries Depressed prices current glut in the market is expected to to sign long-term agreements, some Only Media Ltd “This will mean continued depressed fade after 2020, and their volumes will of these will have to be deferred Tel: +44 (0) 208 150 5293 prices. This is then likely followed by a find markets. or cancelled. [email protected] period of recovery, with renewed There is a significant competitive Subscriptions Sales Manager uncertainty around the middle of the Supply advantage for LNG developers in Stephan Venter decade,” said the report. The 42.5 MTPA of new liquefaction geographic locations with access to low Tel: + 44 (0) 7253 2700 This outlook is expected to set the tone capacity added in 2019, is expected cost resources, proximity to high volume [email protected] among the projects that are actively to prolong excess supply in the global and/or high value markets, and Production under development and have LNG market into the mid opportunity to achieve competitive Vivian Chee yet to take FIDs. to late 2020s, well liquefaction project costs. Tel: +44 (0) 20 8995 5540 “How many beyond the [email protected] will go 2022-2023 Equity investment forward, forecast “Financing multibillion dollar projects of involves equity investments, shareholder Subscription and commercial loans or, where “While it is relatively applicable, project finance with the Print & online £655/€810/US$1050 involvement of export credit agencies and Online only £595/€795/US$950 easy to see what’s the World Bank providing political risk See website for more details insurance for markets lacking sufficient www.lngjournal.com coming on the supply regulatory and mega-project track [email protected] record,” stated the report. hotline +44 (0)20 7253 2700 side, given the long lead “In such a complex and challenging business environment, expansion of times for liquefaction existing projects with a proven track record and strong balance sheets also projects, predicting have a significant competitive No part of this publication may be reproduced advantage,” it said. or stored in any form by any mechanical, demand is much Additionally, the potential for electronic, photocopying, recording or other just relatively lower cost expansions and means without the prior written consent of the more difficult” publisher. Whilst the information and articles versus a year backfill opportunities, in addition to in LNG journal are published in good faith and potential ago. expiring contracts at legacy projects, every effort is made to check accuracy, readers upside and “Adding may reduce the amount of capacity should verify facts and statements direct with downsides to to that potential required from new projects in the official sources before acting on them as the publisher can accept no responsibility in this forecast demand, is key surplus is the Qatar near term. respect. Any opinions expressed in this to determining exactly when the North Field LNG Expansion (the “With downward pressure on costs magazine should not be construed as those of market balances,” explained the world’s most cost-competitive source and contract pricing and higher oil the publisher.
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