FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK ‹ RESEAU DE SYSTEME D’ALERTE PRECOCE CONTRE LA FAMINE‹ S/C USAID BP 34 MALI

MALI: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY REPORT

August 25, 2004

SUMMARY

Plant health conditions around the country are still raising concerns. The entire Sahelian belt and the northern reaches of the country are affected.

The Western area of Mali, recently toured by FEWS NET representatives, is being invaded by desert locusts coming out of . The affected area is a major agropastoral area in the western reaches of the country, within the region. To the north, along the border with Mauritania, the main livelihood is migratory livestock raising in conjunction with rainfed farming of sorghum and millet crops. To the south, close to the River, most households are engaged in farming, combined with small stock-raising activities. In both areas, in years marked by good streamflow conditions, high-yielding off-season sorghum and maize crops can take the place of rainfed crops in some localized areas.

The main source of income for the typical household in the Western Sahel area of Mali is still migration and, more specifically, long-term migration by local residents to foreign countries such as France, Ivory Coast, the Central African Republic, etc. This type of migration generates essential income, helping to maintain the lifestyles and bolster the coping strategies of local households. Such income helps ensure household food security and helps finance basic infrastructure (schools, health centers and communications facilities) and purchase of farm implements.

The invasion of the Western Sahel area of Mali by swarms of desert locusts from northwest Africa and Mauritania has gradually given rise to swarm formation by native locust populations and larvae hatchings. These larvae are also associated with egg- heavy, mature, winged adults. Like other infested areas of the country, the Western Sahel is facing what could be the most catastrophic locust plague in decades. The threat posed by the current locust invasion to flood-recession crops scheduled to be planted later this year (in November and December) is even greater than the threat to existing rainfed crops.

The implementation of emergency measures for the mobilization of physical and human resources and the simultaneous start-up of canvassing and treatment operations in Mauritania and Mali is a must.

A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. USAID/FEWS NET B.P.34 Bamako, Mali Tel: (223)2 29-94-60 Fax: (223) 229-94-60 [email protected]

Monthly food security report for Mali : August 25, 2004 2

I. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO LOCUST ACTIVITY

Cumulative rainfall totals in the Sahelian belt and the northern reaches of the country for the period from May 1 through August 20, while down from last year and below the average for 1971 through 2000, except in the Kayes, Nioro and Yélimané regions, are still high enough to produce climatic conditions conducive to the biological development of the desert locust (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Cumulative rainfall totals as of August 20

500

400

300

200 Millimeters

100

0 l i es e né ra ou pt ou ao ay ah a Na g o ct G K S lim Sé M u du é bo o Y m or To Ni Average 1971-2000 2003 2004

Source: GTPA (Multidisciplinary Working Group for Agrometeorological Assistance) / DNM (National Weather Service)

According to the Normalized Differential Map 1: Condition of vegetation (NDVI) Vegetation Index (NDVI) as of August 20, as of August 20, 2004 the vegetation front had, for the most part, already crossed into the country’s border area with Mauritania (Kayes, , Yélimané and Nara prefectures). This natural forage is attracting swarms of locusts from the northwest migrating southwards from Mauritania into western Mali (Map 1).

Apart from the serious concerns raised by the locust situation, crops in leading farming areas of the country are doing well. Most farm families are hard at work tending their fields. The majority of millet and sorghum Source : NOAA/USGS/FEWS NET crops are in the tillering/height growth stage Monthly food security report for Mali : August 25, 2004 3

of development, with maize crops already in the heading-maturation stage. With the good progress of plant growth and development, there is a real risk of losses from a possible locust infestation before these crops can be brought in.

II. CONCERNS OVER PLANT HEALTH CONDITIONS

Plant health conditions around the country are Map 2: Desert locust situation in troubling. There is a widespread locust invasion of the Western Sahel the Western Sahel, which was recently toured by FEWS NET representatives, affecting the entire Sahelian belt. The invasion of this area by swarms of desert locusts from northwest Africa and Mauritania has gradually given rise to swarm formation by native locust populations and larvae hatchings (Map 2).

As of mid-August, Kayes, Yélimané, Nioro du Sahel and Nara prefectures were all affected by locust infestations. Reports out of these areas along the country’s border with Mauritania indicate:

• Sightings of swarms of locusts coming from the direction of Mauritania throughout the entire Source: FAO Sahelian belt since the end of July, descending on Mali in whirling storms before returning to Mauritania. As of August 15, there were sightings of huge swarms of bright-yellow-colored, sexually mature, gregarious locusts, heavy with eggs, moving through a number of local areas. • Staggered hatchings, with densities of over 100,000 first-stage larvae per infestation in 15 to 30 square meter areas (of Kalinioro, in Kararoko commune). • Mass migration by several hopper bands (second to sixth-stage larvae) out of the north, moving in a southwest direction. On August 19, eight hopper bands were sighted in the rural communes of Gogui (in the villages of Boulouli and Bougire), Djelebou (Kelelé, Negelati) and Koussané (Asseyi Ould Zeba), over an area of close to 750 hectares. These larvae are also associated with egg-heavy, mature, winged adults. In sum, as of the middle of August, these locust infestations had already affected a 16,500 hectare area.

The farm population is powerless against these migratory movements and breeding activities by desert locusts considered by the experts as especially dangerous to crops.

The suffering of area farmers is even greater in the face of the good production forecasts for current crops scheduled to be harvested over the coming weeks and months and their lack of appropriate treatment options against the locust threat.

Migrating larvae and newly hatched larvae from ongoing egg-laying activities will produce new generations of locusts, which should reach maturity at about the same Monthly food security report for Mali : August 25, 2004 4 time as existing crops (in September-October), at which point the locusts will devour the grain crops about to be harvested, along with natural vegetation. The threat to flood- recession crops, which, in certain localized areas, account for close to 60 percent of the annual grain harvest, is even greater. Such crops are grown primarily in localized areas of central Yélimané and Tambakara (in Yélimané district) and Kayes and Ségala (in Kayes district), all of which lie in bottomland areas flooded by tributaries of the Senegal River. The crops will be planted as soon as the local natural vegetation thins out (in November-December), at which point the last generations of locusts are expected to be extremely active. Thus, current locust infestations must be stamped out at all costs, both to save current rainfed crops and to protect what are oftentimes even larger harvests of off-season crops. According to estimates as of August 20, damage to rainfed crops is evident on 115 hectares planted in sorghum, millet and maize and 60 hectares planted in groundnuts and cowpeas are already affected. The damage to pasturelands (wild grasses) systematically being destroyed by migrating larvae and winged adults is even more extensive.

To date, a 983 hectare area of Kayes district (including 470 hectares physically canvassed for signs of locust activity) and an 80.5 hectare area of Yélimané district have been treated against this scourge. Efforts to mobilize treatment equipment and resources continue, while the local population is still anxiously awaiting the start-up of treatment operations, particularly in Nioro. Current supplies of pesticides and the numbers of support staff for such operations are still nowhere near previously announced needs.

III. RECOMMENDATION

The current desert locust invasion of the Western Sahel area of Mali is way beyond local treatment capabilities. With the whirling storms of swarming locusts moving back and forth between Mauritania and Mali, environmental conditions conducive to locust activity and staggered egg-laying activities, new locust infestations can be expected throughout the entire Western Sahel. Thus, the appeal by the Malian government for emergency aid to conduct cross-border locust control operations with a view to saving current rainfed crops and protecting off-season crops scheduled to be harvested in 2005 cannot be ignored.

IV. TRENDS IN MARKET PRICES AND TERMS OF TRADE

In general, coarse grain prices on consumer markets in regional capitals around the country are still holding steady at relatively low levels compared with previous years.

Following trends in coarse grain prices, there has been very little movement in rice prices since the beginning of the year, whose price levels are equally encouraging.

These trends in both rice and coarse grain prices could be attributable to the good grain harvest for the 2003/04 crop year.

Monthly food security report for Mali : August 25, 2004 5

In the face of these price trends, the terms of trade for rice versus millet on markets in Ségou have been steadily improving since the last harvest in November/December of last year from the standpoint of rice-farming households, peaking in May-June, with 100 kg of rice going for nearly 300 kg of millet. This trend is further solidifying the already relatively good grain access of rice farmers and their families.

Rice growers had not seen such favorable terms of trade on the Ségou market since 2000, the most lucrative year ever for rice-farming households in the face of the low price of millet and the relatively high price of rice (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Terms of trade for rice and millet, 1998-2004, Ségou market

400 4.0 Terms of Trade 350 3.5 Rice 300 Millet 3.0

250 2.5

200 2.0

CFAF/KG 150 1.5

100 1.0 (100kg) Millet of Sack per Sack of Rice (100kg) per Sack of

50 0.5

0 0.0

/1 /4 /7 0 /1 /4 /7 0 /1 /4 /7 0 /1 /4 /7 0 1 4 7 0 1 4 7 0 1 4 7 8 8 8 /1 9 9 9 /1 0 0 0 /1 1 1 1 /1 /0 /0 /0 /1 /0 /0 /0 /1 /0 /0 /0 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 9 1 1 1 9 2 2 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Source: OMA (Agricultural Market Observatory); Graphic by FEWS NET/Mali

In contrast, livestock prices are up in some areas and down in others. However, in general, the currently low price levels for coarse grains are benefiting herders and their families looking to trade their animals for millet.

On markets in Ségou, Mopti and Gao (are all important livestock-producing areas), there has been a progressive, general improvement in the terms of trade for goats/millet (to the benefit of herders) since the last round of harvests in 2003.

Terms of trade for goats/millet for the month of July were up 115 percent in Ségou, 119 percent in Mopti and 127 percent in Gao from the same time last year (Figure 3).

Monthly food security report for Mali : August 25, 2004 6

Figure 3 : Cross-yearly trends in terms of trade for goats/millet Ségou-Mopti-Gao (2001/2004)

240

200 Ségou Mopti Gao 160

120

80 kg Milletper Goat

40

0

05 07 07

2001/012001/032001/ 2001/072001/092001/112002/012002/032002/052002/ 2002/092002/112003/012003/032003/052003/ 2003/092003/112004/012004/032004/052004/07

Graphic by FEWS NET/Mali; Source: SAP (National Early Warning System)

Such favorable terms of trade are improving grain access for herders and their families in the country’s Sahelian and Saharan zones, which is bolstering the food security of this population group during this year’s lean period.