BUSINESS Anrhrat^R Mprato
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V - ' - -V. V* »» ao - MANCHKSTER HEKALD, Tuesday. March 13, 1984 BUSINESS Teacher charges Ludes Sale of radio station Marge’s Kitchen The good arid bad: gold, silver and orange juice censored candygrams complete for $295,0(HI makes debut ... page 3 ... page 20 ... page 14 The thrust of this piece: "W e're in a new bull figures a fair amount of it will wind up in gold. One ol the best stock-pickers around, Rogers market in gold and silver." The U.S. Treasury is pushing for the currency figures the sharp market decline and the thick fog o{ We'll also give you an update on the thinking of a replacement and Stahl thinks it could happen late this bearishness are not justified by what’s going on. stock market bull and one of America's most fear or early in ’85. In brief, he sees a combination of things pushing successful private investors — 41-year-old Jimmy Dan Dorfman The reasons given for the expected gold rise have stock prices a lot higher — namely (1) an improving e Rogers. Between* 1970 and 1980, the frequently thus far been all fundamental. Stahl tells me three key economy, (2) a Federal Reserve policy aimed at not contrarian Rogers parlayed $600 into $14 million technical factors also suggest a higher gold price. letting inflation rear its head again in any meaningful Clearing tonight; Manchester, Conn. Syndicated way and (3) a weakening U.S. dollar (which shouUTI (that's his own money). And he's been adding more They're complex, but in brief they are: (l)T h erecen t sunny, mild Thursday Wednesday, March 14,1984 millions ever since. Columnist London gold fix (that’s the price set by five London step up our export business). “ Our precious-metals bull is Charles Stahl, the bullion dealers) has risen above gold's 40-week One of R ogeir’ winning abilities is ferreting out - — See page 2 Single copy: 25C well-regarded 63-year-old publisher of Green's moving average; that’s supposed to be a mttjor companies that have either limited appeal because 1 Commodity Market Comments, a bi-weekly newslet they’re in the doghouse or that are followed by few (if “ anrhrat^r Mprato indication; (2) The five-week moving average is over ter put of Princeton. N .J.. that focuses on the gold and the 13-week moving average, and (3) The $390 level for any) in the Wall Street community. * silver markets. The l9-year-old letter has more than ASIDE FROM INFLATION, here are some key gold — based on a recent Friday afternoon gold fixing In this context, he has zeroed in on one industry — 1,000 subscribers worldwide (including anyone who reasons why Stahl is projecting a higher gold price: — was exceeded. shipping — that he feels offers a slew Of stocks that j counts among bullion dealers). • The dollar's been weakening, causing foreigners could triple or quadruple over the next few years. As a result of renewed inflationary fears — chiefly to pull money out of the U.S. A good chunk of this ONE BIG REASON why Stahl figures silver will Why shipping which has essentially been an J reflecting a hot U.S. economy and poor congressional money is going into foreign currencies; part of it is outstrip gold this year is the ratio brtween the two. investment dog the past 10 years because of rotten ■ and White House progress in attacking the big budget going into gold. Over the past decade, gold averaged a price that was business conditions? deficit — we've seen a recent spurt in both gold and Winter storm • Gold sales by the Soviets, the world's second 32 times higher than silver. Today, gold is selling at silver prices. largest gold producer, should be nominal this year — roughly 40 times the price of silver. ROGERS NOTES THAT 10 years ago we had 20 . Stahl's view: Both gold and silver are headed even given an expected '84 balance of trade surplus of $7 shipping companies; today the figure is down to eight. higher ... and there’s more to it than just the All told, there are qbout 2.2 billion ounces of silver But the big appeal, he says, is that Congress is billion. stocks, including silver coins. inflationary worries. • The U.S. jewelry industry, reflecting expanding changing tte tax laws to help support the industry. On a percentage basis, silver should outperform Stahl observes that over the past four years His top choices (all of which he owns); Waterman blitzes power economies around the globe, should show a 15 to 20 gold, says Stahl, who sports a better-than-average percent rebound in consumption this year. Last year, investors (worldwide) accumulated 294 million Marine (6); OMI Corp. (3), Marine Transport Unes record of calling price moves. the industry consumed 22.4 million ounces, 6 million ounces of silver in an environment of declining (6Vi), American President Cos. (23), Gotaas Larsen ; ounces less than in '82. inflation and good returns on U.S. investments (both (11V>) and McLean Industries (lOW). HIS 1984 PREDICTIONS; Silver, around $9.75 an • For the first time in five years, the central stocks and high-yielding money-market instru A global investor, Rogers also likes German stocks, ounce at press-time, should hit a high of between $14 bankers were a net seller of gold last year (1.8 million ments) . And last year U.S. investors alone snapped up for thousands notably BASF, a big chemical company, and Deutsch ;; and $16. That's equivalent to a gain of between 43 and ounces). A key reason: To raise money to pay off debt 71 million ounces — more than half the total 64 percent. Bank. He points to an improving German economy - interest. Stahl expects a reversal this year — with the consumption of 120 -million ounces used by U.S. and tax-law changes to encourage stock-market Bv United Press International combination of “ intense freezing Gold, just a shade under $400 an ounce, should climb central bankers becoming net buyers, or, at the very industry. investments. ' rain, ice pellets, low visibility, and to between $480 and $510. That would mean a 20 to 27 least, maintaining the level of their '83 holdings. His point: R o g ^ is also super in the short-selling ca te g o ^ (a More than 30,000 Connecticut a wind of 28 knots (31 m ph),” said percent hike. "H ere you -had big investor interest in silver in bet on a declining price rather than on a rising price). - residents were left in the dark this Airport Director Bob JuUano. He Jigures both will close '84 near their highs of the ANOTHER PLUS FOR GOLD, as Stahl sees it: The certainly not the most favorable times for precious And here his favorite of the moment is not a stock, but 2 morning by an ice storm which Juliano said the airport would year. expected issuance of new bank notes in seven metals,” observes Stahl. “ Imagine what would orange juice. tore down power lines, closed a remain closed until 6.a.m. this On the inflationary front. Stahl argues there’s no countries (including the U.S.) to replace existing happen if we get a period of renewed inflation ...” major airport and covered roads morning, but during the storm only way the consumer can escape escalating prices. An paper currencies. In the past few months, orange juice has shot up 60 with glare ice. A pilot was killed three out of 224* scheduled flights expanding economy has built-in inflation: it's just The idea here is to make counterfeiting much more HIS CONCLUDING THOUGHT: “ We’re going to percent in price because of weather problems. Rogers when his plane crashed during were canceled due to the ice. that simple, he says. difficult by issuing new currencies with a magnetic still have volatility in gold and silver, plenty of it, but figures this will cause a cutback in demand; further, severe weather. State Trooper Scott Harvey in His forecast: A 7 to 8 percent inflation rate by thread running through them. the lows of the year have already been seen and a new he notes Brazil is stepping up its orange juice exports. Officials said Meriden “ almost Litchfield said “ road conditions year-end '84 — a jump of roughly double the This means, Stahl tells me, that the cash obtained bull market in both has just begun.” And so Rogers, of a mind that the price is vulnerable, completely” lost power from the are sUppery but there are not any inflation pace o|.3.8 percent. through unreported jobs (known as the Underground Stock market- bears are everywhere, but invest has made a sizable bet to this effect on the futures storm which p e lt^ the state with big problems,” adding that The latest figure, as measured by the Consumer Economy) and unreport^ funds in the underworld ment ;whiz Jimmy Rogers is not one of them. market (a market which gives you the right to buy, or up to 8 inches of snow, followed by warmer temperatures this morn Price Index — a 7.2 percent rate in January. will have to go somewhere at ^om e point. And he 'T m very bullish,” he says. sell, commodities at a future date). heavy mixtures of ice, sleet and ing had melted the ice. freezing rain in its two-day The winter storm first rolled into rampage. Connecticut early Tuesday, pro “ It’s certainly going to be one of ducing heavy snow and freezing Business the more serious problems of the rain, slowed traffic during two Latest big oil merger winter,” said Northeast Utilities commuter rush-hours and caused spokesman Michael London.