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China Goes Soft in Africa

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China Goes Soft in Africa China Goes Soft in Africa A Monograph by Mr~ Patrick Wesner US AID School ofAdvanced Military Studies United States Army Command and General Staff College Fort Leavenworth, Kansas 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited REPORT. DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved I OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, <1nd completing and reviewing this collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden to Department of Defense, Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (0704-0188), 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 12. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 22-04-2016 Monograph · JUN 2015 - May 2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: China Goes Soft in Africa Sa. CONTRACT NUMBER Sb. GRANT NUMBER Sc. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Mr. Patrick J. Wesner Se. TASK NUMBER Sf. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORG REPORT School of Advanced Military Studies, U.S. Army Command and General Staff NUMBER College 201 Reynolds Ave., Fort Leavenworth, KS 66027 9. SPONSORING I MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S School of Advanced Military Studies; ACRONYM(S) Advanced Strategic Leadership Studies Program. 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION I AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Over the last 15 years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has substantially increased its deployment to Africa of economic, diplomatic, and cultural assets with the goal of garnering African support for Chinese international ambitions. Some scholars describe this approach as a broad charm offensive orchestrated through what Joseph Nye referred to as soft power. While many scholars assert that Chinese soft power in Africa has been successful, few have proposed measures with which to assess its actual effectiveness. This monograph explores the extent to which China's soft power efforts in Africa have been successful. To begin to make this determination, favorability polling data, trends on Taiwan's diplomatic relations with African nations, and voting patterns on UN human rights resolutions were examined over the last 20 years. Taken together, these findings suggest that Chinese soft power has been at least moderately successful at helping the PRC achieve its foreign policy objectives in Africa. 1S. SUBJECT TERMS China -Soft Power, Relations with Africa, China's favorability in Africa, Isolation of Taiwan, UN Human Rights Resolutions 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Mr. Patrick J. Wesner (U) 61 a. REPORT Ib. ABSTRACT Ic. THIS PAGE 19b. PHONE NUMBER (include area code) (U) (U) (U) 1-913-558-8294 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Abstract China Goes Soft in Africa, by 'Mr. Patrick Wesner, 42 pages Over the last 15 years, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has substantially increased its deployment to Africa of economic, diplomatic, and cultural assets with the goal of garnering African support for Chinese international ambitions. Some scholars describe this approach as a broad charm offensive orchestrated through what Joseph Nye referred to as soft power. However, while it is apparent that China presumes that soft power is important to achieving these ambitions, the secretive Chinese government has not published information about how it evaluates the outcomes of its soft power efforts. While many scholars assert that Chinese soft power in Africa has been successful, few have proposed measures with which to assess its actual effectiveness. The paucity of evidence supporting claims of effective Chinese soft power leads to an obvious research question, namely, to what extent have China's soft power efforts in Africa been successful? To begin to make this determination, it was reasonable to first identify PRC goals. The Chinese foreign policy goals in Africa include bolstering its image and influence in African nations, gaining African support for isolating the Republic of China, and persuading African nations to collaborate with China to shape international norms. Therefore, favorability polling data, trends on Taiwan's diplomatic relations with African nations, and voting patterns on UN human rights resolutions were examined because over time the changes in these measures would indicate the degree to which China has achieved its policy goals. African public polling information revealed a steady increase in Chinese favorability and influence since China began its push to develop soft power in Africa. Next, the number of African states that have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan has dwindled over the past 20 years, and is at its lowest point since the PRC was recognized in 1971. Lastly, UN voting information on human rights resolutions, although limited, shows that African countries voted with China more frequently after China's soft power push in Africa than before. Taken together, these findings suggest that Chinese soft power has been at least moderately successful at helping the PRC achieve its foreign policy objectives in Africa. lll Contents Acknowledgements................ :......................................................................................................... v Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................ vi Tables ............................................................................................................................................. vii Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 The Soft Power Concept .................................................................................................................. 6 Analysis of Soft Power Indicators ................................................................................................. 17 Pew Research Center Favorability Ratings ............................................................................... 19 BBC World Service Country Ratings Poll ................................................................................ 19 Afro barometer Polling Information ........................................................................................... 21 Recognition of Taiwan .............................................................................................................. 28 Attracting Votes at the United Nations ...................................................................................... 31 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 36 Limitations of the Study and Areas for Future Research ............................................................... 38 Bibliography .................................................................................................................................. 40 IV Acknowledgements ' I would like to thank Ms. Judy Latta for reviewing each draft of this paper and providing extremely useful feedback and suggestions. She was a sounding board throughout the process and motivated me to keep on keeping on in the early days of drafting the paper when I could not see any light at the end of the tunnel. v Acronyms AU African Uni~n BBC British Broadcasting Corporation CAR Central African Republic CCP Chinese Communist Party FOCAC Forum on China-Africa Cooperation PRC Peoples Republic of China Roe Republic of China UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly VI Tables China's Favorability Ratings in Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania 19 2 Does China have a positive or negative influence in the world? .................................. 20 3 Does China has positive or negative influence in your country? .................................. 23 .. 4 Which country has the most influence in your country? ............................................... 24 5 Which country has the best model for future development? ......................................... 26 6 African countries that have switched to recognize China since 1995 ........................... 30 7 Votes on Human Right and Coercive Measures Resolution from 1996-1998 and 2011­ 2013 ······························································································································· 33 8 Votes on Right to Development Resolution from 1997-1999 and 2011-2013 .............. 34 Vll Introduction The People's Republic of China's (PRC) robust economic growth over the last 15 years has substantially affected world trade and international relations. This growth has enabled the PRC to emerge as a global
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