The North What is The North Page 1 of 9

"The North" What is The North"? Who are "The Northerners"?

By

Dr. Ibrahim Ayagi,

Chairman of the Federal Economic Intelligence Committee

Introduction

These are days of "Politics". Politics in is the profession of politicians who earn their living and/or who thrive on practicing the art of the possible. The art of the possible is the skill to make people believe in the possibility of the impossible. Many Nigerian politicians have that skill in ample supply.

These are days of "Politicians" who profess their own feelings, beliefs and understandings as dogmatic and unquestionable truths and who go about castigating those who do not believe in those "truths" of theirs as enemies of their people and even as enemies of higher revered authorities.

These are days of the "politics" of resuscitation and the realignment of sentiments. The "politics" of resuscitating old conjectures and sentiments and using them to antagonize and to secure a lost political glory and privileges.

The Nigerian nation is full of such politicians. They exist and thrive in all parts of the country. They say what they want to say whenever they want to say it. They talk about how bad the Nigerian economy has been; the "collapse" of the naira; how people have been suffering, with no employment and no income; how the rate of crimes has risen: armed robberies, communal, religious and ethnic/tribal clashes in all parts of the country; market fires, bomb blasts; and, especially for the part of Nigeria where this writer lives, "the marginalisation of the north." All these ills and evils have been happening, according to them, because of the federal government - the government that came to power through a popular election in 1999 under the leadership of President .

If these accusations have been properly analyzed and found to be justified by unbiased and professionally competent minds, one could argue that the responsibility could be heaped on the federal government and its leader. That might be a legitimate leadership price to pay. The led have the privilege to blame their leaders for the wrongs of society.

However, the accusations have not been proved. Of course, the communal, religious, ethnic/tribal conflicts and large-scale killings and destruction of property took place in many parts of Nigeria during this period. But this is not the first time such atrocities took place in Nigeria. Disregarding the periods of the military regimes (which can be explained away by those with the art or skill of the possible), one could trace, through sheer memory, the upheavals and calamities that took place

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between 1963 and January 1966 and between October 1979 and December 1983. None of the proponents of marginalisation could argue that those calamities took place because of the incumbent prime minister or president in the two periods respectively. And if they even dare to do so, they could not say it was because of the incumbent’s "betrayal" or "marginalisation" of a section of the country. These are new forms of accusation invented by members of the newly formed elite group of the ACF.

The most favoured and used words from the lips of many members of the elite group in the part of the country of the writer are: "The North", "betrayal" and "marginalisation" mostly expressed in Hausa.

One hears these words virtually every day, especially from the Hausa section of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and the Voice of America (VOA) whose correspondents in Nigeria interview these politicians of "marginalisation", and spread what they tell them as if they were established and absolute truths. It is very common to hear from these broadcast organisations such things as,

"To, ganin cewa mafi yawancin `Yan Arewa suna ganin wannan Gwamnatin bata son su, ko ba ta yi musu kaza-da-kaza, ko ta yaudare su domin su suka zabe ta, amma ita kuma ta fi taimakawa `yan kabilar su da basu zabe su ba, yaya kaza da kaza da kaza?" meaning something like this:

"In view of the fact that most Northerners believe that this government is anti-north, or has betrayed the Northerners (who actually elected them) or has marginalized them, and so forth, what would you think about...?"

These foreign Hausa broadcasting services do not even have the semblance of neutrality for which their English language broadcasts are known. They report, for instance, that "the North" has decided to do this or that or has decided not to support or vote for such and such candidate in the 2003 elections. Such sweeping conclusions from spurious and non-existent findings/decisions of imagined "Northerners" are not so common on the local radio stations. However, many a friend in "politics" would talk to one as a matter-of-factly as follows:

"Tun da yanzu mu `Yan Arewa mun zama saniyar tatse- a tatse mu, a yar..."

"As we Northerners have been exploited and discarded...... " This is most amazing! What are these people talking about?

In one’s own presence they talk about "we, Northerners", which, of course, one identifies with tokenly, but then they complete those phrases with statements that one could not agree or identify with. This is embarrassing and one tries to immediately find and unobvious way to cover the embarrassment. This makes one to start to wonder about the meaning of"Northerners" and who they are. It gives one the feelings that perhaps one is no longer a "Northerner". But they use the Hausa word "mu" which means the talker and the one being talked to. So it means I am regarded as a "Northerner" and I am shown to share the same views. In that case what is being said is a misrepresentation of my views and the views of a great number of "Northerners".

The Rationale For the Formation of the ACF.

The ‘North’ is a generalized geographical location in Nigeria. However, this geographical location does not exist as a government unit, a political system, a religious denomination, a tribal unit, or, in fact as any unit of anything at all. It is the conceptualized idea of elite special interest groups who must protect their influence and relevance and who must regain their lost glory. It was only after the coming to power of this new democratic government that the elite groups in the North

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started to come together to form their special interest groups as a countervailing force to the Afenifere in the South-West zone and to the Ohanaeze in the South-East. The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) is the name of the elite groups that selected themselves to form what they see as the vanguard for the "North".

Maybe groups of this nature had a function during the military administration. It is difficult to see what legitimate functions such groups could play in a democratic setting with multiple political parties. There are 19 states in the "North" and each state is headed by an executive governor elected by a majority of the people in the state. These governors, despite their party political differences, meet regularly to discuss issues of common interest to the "North" and to decide on what line of uniform action to take. This is a better and a more suitable democratic group of functionaries to discuss issues of common interest to "the North" than a gathering of an extremely elitist group of self-appointed people who carry no mandate whatsoever from the people of "the North". Only the (ex-) military elite, the traditional ruling elite and the monied/rich merchant/trading elite groups constitute the ACF, which has no representation from the generality of the people in the "North". They are friends and associates of one another and selected themselves to form the ACF. They do not relate in any practical way with the majority of the people of the "North".

The Facts Against the ACF’s Unjustified Onslaught On President Obasanjo and the Federal Government

Yet these are the people who lead the campaign to portray all the actions and activities of the Federal Government under President Obasanjo as either ill motivated or against the interest of "the North". They created the image of "marginalisation" to portray the present Federal Government as Government of the Yorubas. Some of them from Kano State present some statistics to buttress their claim that many chief executives of federal government parastatals - all indigenes of Kano state were removed from office during this administration. They point their fingers at NEPA, NNPC, NPA etc, all from the former Kano state and all removed as chief executives of the named federal government parastatals. They say they have all been removed, period. And they stop the accusation there.

They fail to take the accusation to its logical conclusion by saying "and they were all replaced by Yorubas", because they know that it was not true.

The truth was that the removed Kano state indigenes were replaced by some Yorubas and some other as well. And that type of action is typical of Olusegun Obasanjo - an extremely fair, balanced, honest, transparent and objective leader. Coming in as a politician and finding a situation portraying military dictatorship (with so many Chief Executives from one state), he decided to spread the benefit of the feeling and sense of belonging to other Nigerians from other states. And still he left at least three (3) major institutions (that one could recall from memory) to be headed by Kano state indigenes - the NPA, the JAMB and the important National Economic Intelligence Committee (NEIC) which was formerly headed by a Yoruba but now headed by a Kano state indigene in the person of this writer who operates as a very close and well listened to economic adviser to President Obasanjo. There is no doubt that there were many qualified Yoruba economists for the position of NEIC chairman, but he appointed a Kano man. Hence, the accusation of marginalisation in appointments fires away in the face of this concrete evidence of balanced and fair action in favour of all Nigerians and not against any particular state or region of the country.

The image of marginalisation is also used in the distribution of social and economic amenities by the Federal Government. They would say, "go to Oyo in the South-West zone and see the types of roads the Federal Government has executed there. they paint an image of a superstructure of fine, completed and first-class roads and bridges executed only in the South- West zone. This was said to have been done at the expense of especially "the North" where the roads have all dilapidated and nothing was being done by the Federal Government to establish its presence in "the North."

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This accusation is false and unsubstantiated. Without any intention to provide evidence to buttress any viewpoint and/or stand of anybody this writer was involved in the monitoring of a number of federal government projects all over the country.

In April/May this year (2002) the National Economic Intelligence Committee (NEIC) under the chairmanship of this writer monitored and reported to Mr. President on the following projects:

1) All the road projects awarded or re-awarded on contract since May 1999.

2) All the University Teaching Hospitals and Federal Medical Centers in the country; and

3) A good number of the 200 Federal Primary Health Care Centres being constructed all over the country.

Our findings confirm the award of contracts for the construction of 200 Primary Health Care Centres by the Federal Government. The 200 Primary Health Care Centres are located all over the country, in the nooks and corners of each state of the federation. These hospitals are being equipped and staffed adequately. They have both in- and out-patient facilities, especially for maternity patients. There are at least five (5) Federal Primary Health Care Centres in each state. Most of them were on the last stage of completion. To the understanding of this writer, this is the first time that such Health Care Centres are being set up in the various local governments of all the states.

For the road networks, the NEIC monitored 124 roads construction and/or rehabilitation contracts awarded or re-awarded by this democratic government since May 1999. The lengths of the roads total 6,834 kilometers awarded at the cost of N266.14 billion. The roads contracts awarded are distributed in the six (6) geo-political zones of the country as follows (See Table)

The evidence shows that the North-West Zone (comprising Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi States) has the longest road networks - 1,522 kilometres.

This writer personally monitored and, therefore, drove on all the roads in the North-West zone: right from the big round about on the Kano-Zaria road to the Eastern Bye-pass, up to the roundabout on the Kano-Hadejia road, from there to Gumel and Maigatari, and from Gumel to Hadejia, from Hadejia to Gamayin and from Gamayin to Bauchi state border and returned to Kano through Kafin Hausa and Kiyawa in Jigawa state. All these roads were being re-constructed or at least the contracts from re-constructing them have already been awarded. Similarly, the Kano-Katsina road rehabilitation contract was also awarded. Work was due to start on the contract for the construction of a completely new road - Lamba-Kunchi- Kazaure. This is a new road of about 54 kilometres linking Kano and Jigawa states through the Kano-Katsina road.

In one drove direct from Kano to Katsina, passing through Katsina through Safana back to Kankia. This road, the rehabilitation of which has been completed, is joined by a road leading to the border town of Jibiya. This road network is being joined by a new road being constructed from Kaura Namoda in Zamfara state. The contract for the new road has been advertised and, when constructed, it will link Zamfara to Katsina and reduce the journey between Sokoto and Katsina

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states by 2 hours. In , one drove to Saminaka to monitor the Saminaka-Samaru-Kataf and Kagoro-Kafanchan roads the cost of constructing the 114 kilometres of roads was =N=1.95 billion. The roads were 99 percent completed. The Kaduna-Kachia-Gimi road was 251 kilometres being constructed at the cost of =N=2.632 billion and was 60% completed.

Furthermore, the Kaduna Western Bye-Pass of 32km dual carriageway was rehabilitated at the total cost of =N=640.47 million. The contract for the Western Bye-Pass to Kaduna NNPC Refinery dual carriageway was being executed by the Kaduna state government on behalf of the federal government at the cost of =N=1.4 billion.

The Federal road networks in Zamfara, Sokoto and Kebbi states were similarly and extensively monitored by this writer personally. The roads monitored in the three states included the following:

1) Sokoto-Goronyo-Dam Site 995km, costing =N=2.96 billion)

2) Kaura Namoda-Shinkafi-Sabon Birni (125km, costing =N=2.02 billion)

3) Mainchi-Anka-Daki Takwas-Kebbi state border (165km, costing = N=2.223 billion)

4) General Sani Abacha Way, Gusau.

A similar monitoring exercise was done on all the road networks in all the other zones by different teams of NEIC, which reported similar observations as that of the chairman that the federal government of Nigeria under President Obasanjo was constructing or re-constructing extensive and impressive road networks all over the country.

The evidence on the distribution of the contracts for the road networks indicated above shows that in terms of length of the roads the North-West zone comes first with 1,522 kilometres, while in terms of the number of roads and the contract costs the South-South zone comes first. In terms of kilometers the South-West zone comes only second to the last with only 990.8km.

Where, then, is the evidence of biased distribution of economic and social amenities to any zones or states? Look at this distribution of roads contracts again. You cannot be more balanced and /or more above board and fairer than this. What the proponents of marginalisation expected President Obasanjo to do was to penalize the South-West zone by depriving them of their legitimate share of these projects for their not voting for him during the 1999 elections and heaping everything on Kano, Katsina and Kaduna states for voting for him. But that kind of behaviour is not the style of President Obasanjo. An honest and fair leader does not do that. He may be harsh in his frankness but President Obasanjo cannot be unfair or inequitable. The states of Oyo, Ondo, Ogun, Lagos and Ekiti did not vote him in 1999 just as Sokoto, Zamfara and Kebbi did not vote for him. Yet he allocated to them just as he did to the states that voted for him.

The proponents of this marginalisation image should know Obasanjo the way they knew him before. He has not changed at all. He is the same Obasanjo who conducted the best, the fairest and the most transparent elections in Nigeria and who, on disputed and marginally favourable election results handed over power to a "Northerner" even though the main rival of the "Northerner" was Yoruba. He did that because he believed that the "Northerner" won the election.

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The ACF marginalisation proponents should know that it is not easy today to get a finer, more honest, transparent and dedicated Nigerian than President Obasanjo. There is only one living Nigerian with attributes that can stand the test of probity and the high principles of President Obasanjo. In fact, this writer had, long before 1998 (and still has) the belief that only two (2) living Nigerians could be trusted to lead Nigeria and manage the Nigerian economy honestly and efficiently. In a letter to one of the two exemplary Nigerians in 1998 this writer mentioned these facts or beliefs. He did not mention the name of the other trusted and honest Nigerian. However, for the avoidance of doubt, the transparently honest, incorruptible, upright and trustworthy Nigerians that this writer could trust to rule in Nigeria are President Obasanjo and General Muhammad Buhari.

Yet, the proponents of the marginalisation image continue to castigate the federal government under President Obasanjo. They use their fantastic imaginations and create problems out of non-existent issues and use them against the federal government and President Obasanjo. For example, the issue of voters’ registration and the national identity card. The arch proponent of the marginalisation image, the ACF issued a threat that "the North" would boycott both the voters’ registration and the national identity card. Some of the reasons given for this reaction include the following:

i) The voters’ registration and national identity card registration were scheduled to take place in August when most "Northerners", being farmers, would not be able to be present to be registered. This was a device to drastically reduce the number or population of "Northerners".

ii) The voters’ registration was scheduled to be done and completed in five (5) days, with the registration of 500 people every day. The proponents of the marginalisation image argue that this is impossible for the majority of "Northerners", most of whom are said to be illiterate. Thus, the 5 days would be exhausted with only a few "Northerners" being registered. This is also a scheme to decimate the population of "the Northerners".

iii) With both the 2 exercises, photographs are to be taken for all those being registered. This is said to be objectionable to Muslims, and husbands would not allow their wives to be registered. Again, a device to decimate the population of the "Northerners."

These are the conjectures of the proponents of the marginalisation image. They do not stand the test of reason. However, be that as it may, the present federal government of Nigeria is being accused of scheming, through the voters’ registration and the identity card project implementation, to decimate the population of "Northerners" and Muslims. One has heard these accusations being repeated from the Imam members (the sermons platform) in the mosque.

This accusation must be very insulting to all those "Northerners"/Muslims in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the federal government. The implication of the accusation is that the "Northerners"/Muslims in INEC and the federal government are either incapable of discerning these schemes and the motives behind them or alternatively, they know and understand the schemes but are incapable of stopping them.

However, the "Northerners"/Muslims we have in INEC are some of the best "Northerners"/Muslims that Nigeria has. The INEC comprises such "Northerners/Muslims as Alhaji Shehu Musa, Professor Shehu Galadanchi, Alhaji Ladan Baki, to mention just a few. They are part and parcel of all the decisions of INEC. How could they be part of a scheme to decimate "Northerners"/Muslims? These are people who have already made their mark in life and are not in INEC for any other reasons but national service.

Similarly, in the federal government, all the "Northern" ministers and advisers are distinguished and honourable people. You have people like Vice-President Atiku Abubakar who works very closely with the president. You also have people

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like Mallam Adamu Ciroma (Galadiman Fika), Aminu Wali, Dr. Rilwanu Lukman, Sule Lamido and even this humble writer, to mention just a few. All these are honourable, knowledgeable and principled people who have already made their mark in life and are not in government for anything other than to serve the Nigerian nation. They are not second to anybody in the ACF in their "Northerness"/Islamism.

Yet, when such arguments were raised with the National Secretary of the ACF in an interview on one of the overseas Hausa service broadcasts, the secretary said that it did not follow that just because such people were in government and in INEC that such schemes could not be hatched. So, what does the ACF think of these people? Maybe, they are no longer "Northerners"/Muslims in the ACF’s assessment.

The Economic Achievements of the Obasanjo Administration So Far.

This write-up started with the marginalisation image proponents’ accusation that the Nigerian economy was in a very bad state, the Naira had "collapsed", and that people were really suffering many deprivations. It is certainly true that the Nigerian economy is still in a bad shape and that many Nigerians have been suffering. It is not true, however, that the Naira has "collapsed", whatever that means. The "collapse" of a national currency is like the "death" of an economy. It does not happen. It is true that the naira has lost a lot of its value since May 1999. As a political rhetoric one can allow that argument to pass. However, to determine what happened to the naira and the Nigerian economy, it is more appropriate to examine the situation comparatively, that is, to look at the economy at two (2) points in time and ask relevant questions. The 2 points are 1) pre-May 1999 and b) post-May 1999. Is the Nigerian economy worse today than it was before May 1999? Has the value of the naira suffered more in the post-May 1999 period than it did in the pre-May 1999 period?

Look at the Nigerian economy as at today; what is happening? The empirical evidence shows the following as at today:

1) The supply of NEPA power today is better than it was before May 1999.

2) Most filling stations in all parts of the country have adequate fuels and no queues while the opposite was the case before May 1999.

3) The minimum wage for labour today is =N=6,000 to =N=7,000 per month; before May 1999 it was less than =N=1,000.00

4) The take-home pay for most workers in both the public and private sectors has improved very significantly; for example, a University Professor was earning =N=4,000 to =N=6,000 before May 1999 while today the same Professor earns over =N=100,000.00 per month.

5) The labour market is very quite today; no major strikes going on now. Before May 1999 strikes, especially in the Universities, were the order of the day.

6) The inflation rate today is much higher today than before May 1999. However, the number of employed people today is higher than before May 1999 and the income of the employed is much higher than before May 1999; therefore the number of people who are better off has improved on the pre-May 1999 number.

7) The transport system in the country has improved significantly. The number of bicycles, motorbikes, taxis and passenger buses is at least double what it was before May 1999. Hence, the unusual congestion in most urban centers in the country. This is evidence that a greater number of people in the country is better off today than before May 1999.

8) The Anti-Corruption Commission exists today but did not exist before May 1999. This portrays the leadership of President Obasanjo in its true and genuine stature: a leadership that believes that corruption is the root cause of most of Nigeria’s problems and is out to fight it in all its forms and manifestations.

9) Tremendous improvements have taken place in education at both the state and federal levels, and what is obtained today

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was not there before May 1999.

10) Today the Nigerian economy is being managed better and transparently more efficiently than before May 1999. The diversion of public funds for personal enrichment has stopped. Those Nigerians who always associate working for government with stealing money may still be making their insinuations against even present government functionaries. However, nobody would have any evidence to buttress their accusations.

11) Billions of US dollars belonging to Nigeria were siphoned off before May 1999. A big chunk of these stolen assets (in billions of US dollars) has been recovered after May 1999.

The Nigerian economy has undergone unprecedented bashings in the 13 years between August 1985 to May 1999 (with the worst in the period August 1985 to November 1993). It is most unrealistic to expect immediate recovery within just a space of 3 to 4 years, especially in the face of exogenous happenings that the country has no control on. The value of the naira has fallen over the 3 years of this administration, but this decline in value took place in spite of the sustained efforts of the government to protect the value of the national currency. A different government under the same conditions might not have been able to hold the value of the naira at the current value. In fact, looking at the comparative statistics, the period June 1999 to date is the time when the value of the naira is most stable. In the 13 years between August 1985 and May 1999 the value of the naira declined from about =N=2.00 to the U.S. dollar (in 1985/19865) to about =N=94 to the U.S. dollar (in early May 1999). This is a devaluation of 280 percent per annum compared with a devaluation from =N=94 to the U.S dollar in May 1999 to =N=126 in July 2002 - an average devaluation of only 11.3 per cent per annum.

President Obasanjo’s achievements transcend projects implementation and economic goals.

There is no doubt that the Nigerian economy has made may reasonable achievements and is poised to achieve even more if the present policies are retained. Yet, economic achievements are not the most important strides of the federal government under the presidency of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo. The single most important achievement of President Obasanjo is the retention and sustainance of the Nigerian nation as an entity.

Many Nigerians seem to have a rather short memory of history. Those "Northerners" who urged Chief Obasanjo to stand in the election in 1999 as president and voted for him, did so for one very important reason. The Nigerian nation was, in 1998, on the average of collapse. There were many groups that were openly agitating for the break up of the country. Only the "Northerners" and Obasanjo stood firm and decidedly against the break-up of Nigeria. Many of those "Northerners" actually voted for President Obasanjo to save Nigeria from disintegration. And that objective has virtually been achieved already. Those agitating for the break up of Nigeria have now been rehabilitated and have acquired the sense of belonging in the system which they lost. No such agitations are being heard today. Most people seem to have settled down to working together to make the new democratic system work. This is the greatest achievement of President Obasanjo.

Closely following on that achievement is that our country has now been fully restored into the international comity of nations. Nigeria has now been restored to international respectability. Our president intermingles with world leaders with his head up. We are now in the forefront as leaders of Africa and the Third-World. As a result of this, Nigeria has been reclaiming itself from the conditionalities of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank even though we have not been able to service Nigeria’s outstanding foreign debt.

In place of the IMF conditionalities, Nigeria has been working with other African countries to develop a home grown economic development programme - the New Economic Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) - which seeks to establish new relationships with the industrialized countries. With the acceptance of this New Deal Programme and the

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achievement of internal peace, Nigeria is well poised to experience a heightened tempo in the flow of foreign investment into the country which is very important in the resuscitation of the Nigerian economy. This is no mean achievement.

August 2002

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