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San Francisco - CA Office Market Report San Francisco - CA PREPARED BY Cameron Love Senior Vice President San Francisco Office OFFICE MARKET REPORT Market Key Statistics 2 Leasing 3 Rent 8 Construction 11 Under Construction Properties 13 Sales 15 Sales Past 12 Months 17 Economy 19 Market Submarkets 22 Supply & Demand Trends 29 Rent & Vacancy 31 Sale Trends 33 10/30/2019 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Overview San Francisco Office 12 Mo Deliveries in SF 12 Mo Net Absorption in SF Vacancy Rate 12 Mo Rent Growth 2.8 M 3.1 M 5.8% 6.4% The tech sector has driven San Francisco’s office market headquarters of Uber and Dropbox, inventory growth is to new heights. Leasing activity remains strong as on schedule to reach a cyclical peak in 2019. The mature tech giants with strong balance sheets and well- majority of new inventory in the market is delivering fully capitalized start-ups alike compete for the city’s premier preleased to tech tenants, setting the stage for another office buildings. Large-sized blocks of space have year of robust net absorption. become increasingly rare, and development opportunities are limited. Rent growth picked up in 2017 and 2018 in response to tightening market fundamentals, but remains subdued Net absorption soared to a record high in 2018 and compared to the double-digit annual gains achieved remains elevated in 2019, boosted by tenants taking earlier in the economic expansion. Furthermore, the pace occupancy in new skyscrapers surrounding the Transbay of rent growth has been moderating lower in 2019. That transit center. Despite multiple building completions over said, San Francisco still ranks among the country's the past several years, demand has outweighed supply strongest markets in year-over-year rent growth. growth, sending vacancy in the metro towards expansion era lows. Asset pricing continues to rise in conjunction with rent potential. Sales volume has picked up in 2019, as the With the delivery of more high-rise buildings in the South market continues to attract institutional investment, and Financial District, and completion of the Mission Bay large user acquisitions. KEY INDICATORS Net Absorption Under Current Quarter RBA Vacancy Rate Market Rent Availability Rate Deliveries SF SF Construction 4 & 5 Star 91,758,797 6.1% $77.19 9.6% 446,962 0 5,466,937 3 Star 52,457,229 5.1% $66.43 8.2% 196,385 25,420 914,200 1 & 2 Star 32,667,090 6.4% $54.22 8.7% (92,483) 0 0 Market 176,883,116 5.8% $69.96 9.0% 550,864 25,420 6,381,137 Historical Forecast Annual Trends 12 Month Peak When Trough When Average Average Vacancy Change (YOY) -0.3% 9.3% 6.8% 16.2% 2003 Q2 1.3% 2000 Q2 Net Absorption SF 3.1 M 1,300,990 1,122,146 7,089,805 2000 Q1 (9,382,408) 2001 Q3 Deliveries SF 2.8 M 1,850,780 2,107,768 6,189,635 2001 Q4 55,198 2006 Q2 Rent Growth 6.4% 4.7% 1.2% 30.7% 2000 Q3 -33.0% 2001 Q4 Sales Volume $7.6 B $3.4B N/A $9.2B 2007 Q3 $295.6M 2002 Q2 10/30/2019 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 2 Leasing San Francisco Office San Francisco's office market is thriving in the mature their higher than average vacancy rates, rent growth in stages of a tech-led economic expansion. Absorption these submarkets remains strong, as demand for soared to nearly 4 million SF in 2018, and totaled nearly affordable and transit-friendly real estate located 3 million SF in the first three quarters of 2019. Building between San Francisco and San Jose is rising. developments are reaching completion, fully preleased. Despite an abundance of new inventory, tenant demand The tightest submarkets in San Francisco surround continues to place downward pressure on vacancy, downtown (MidMarket, Yerba Buena, Lower South of which is near expansion-era lows at just 5.8%. Market, Rincon/South Beach and Civic Center) and offer tenants access to centrally located public transit, at a Absent substantial supply growth earlier in the expansion slight discount to prevailing rental rates in the city's period, vacancy declined rapidly, from a recession-era Central Business District (Financial District and South peak of 13% in 2010, to 6% by mid-2015. However, as Financial District submarkets). new development helped satisfy demand, and rising rental costs prompted some tenant out-flow, market Elevated levels of available sublease space suggest that fundamentals stabilized. Vacancy has hovered between underlying demand may be slightly weaker than the 6% and 7% since 2015. market's headline vacancy rates suggests. More than 3 million SF of sublease space is currently listed as In comparison, vacancy at the peak of the dot com available, which equates to roughly 2% of market expansion period in 2000 fell below 2%. The duration of inventory. the current expansion period has provided more time for developers to respond to tenant demand. This time While some cost-sensitive tenants are leaving San around, a larger share of companies leasing space have Francisco to lease more affordable space in the East established profitable business operations. However, Bay, cross Bay tenant migration is not as strong as many some tenant risk remains in the market. Several market observers assumed it would be several years technology firms boasting quickly rising revenue streams ago. However, notable tenants such as Delta Dental, that have expanded aggressively in San Francisco, Blue Shield, Aecom, and most recently, Square and remain unprofitable as of yet. Credit Karma have expanded into Oakland. Due to the market's strong demand, availability is scarce Furthermore, several Fortune 500 firms with longstanding for large blocks of space, and for creative office spaces roots in San Francisco are also moving out of town, to in particular. Tech companies are competing for the parts of the country where the cost of doing business is market’s best located and outfitted buildings in order to much lower. Engineering and construction firm Bechtel attract employees, but many second generation space Group is moving to Virginia, while McKesson and Core- options in less prestigious buildings remain available for Mark are relocating to Texas. Yet, fundamentals in San mid-sized and smaller tenants. Francisco remain extremely strong. Tech companies and co-working providers are expanding into the buildings Only a few submarkets in the entire metro, primarily vacated by these more traditional, cost-sensitive located outside of the city, maintain a vacancy rate tenants. above 10%. These mid-peninsula suburban submarkets including San Mateo, Burlingame, and Foster However, San Francisco has become the most City/Redwood Shores lack the population density, expensive market in the country for office space, and amenities, and extensive food and entertainment options average rents in the East Bay are roughly 40% below found in the city of San Francisco. Transportation can those in San Francisco—a difference that widened in the also be a challenge, as San Francisco's MUNI bus economic expansion cycle. As San Francisco tenants system, and BART do not extend South to these face steep rent hikes upon lease expirations, relocations submarkets. However, demand is rising specifically near to the East Bay and out of California entirely could CalTrain stations in the Peninsula, which provide service dampen demand. to the South of Market area of San Francisco. Despite 10/30/2019 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 3 Leasing San Francisco Office NET ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY VACANCY RATE 10/30/2019 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 4 Leasing San Francisco Office AVAILABILITY RATE 10/30/2019 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437. Page 5 Leasing San Francisco Office 12 MONTH NET ABSORPTION SF IN SELECTED BUILDINGS Net Absorption SF Building Name/Address Submarket Bldg SF Vacant SF 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr 12 Month Park Tower At Transbay South Financial District 764,700 8,746 755,954 0 0 0 755,954 The Exchange on Sixteenth Mission Bay/China B… 750,370 12,289 0 0 726,973 11,108 738,081 Merck Campus South SF East of 10… 300,930 0 0 300,930 0 0 300,930 Van Ness & Geary Medical Offic… Van Ness Corridor 234,000 38,066 0 191,968 3,966 0 195,934 Bay Meadows San Mateo-Downtow… 189,000 0 0 0 189,000 0 189,000 333 Bush St Financial District 542,878 56,866 12,925 102,288 43,926 (34,125) 141,448 Charles Schwab Bldg South Financial District 373,500 0 0 0 0 140,079 140,079 Transbay Transit Center South Financial District 1,420,682 0 95,741 10,052 0 20,631 138,302 100 Hooper (1) Showplace Square 200,000 10,984 990 152 12,361 0 131,783 100 Hooper (2) Showplace Square 200,000 0 2,732 10,690 14,836 0 121,832 970 San Mateo-Downtow… 120,968 0 0 0 120,968 0 120,968 930 San Mateo-Downtow… 120,968 0 0 0 120,968 0 120,968 One Market Plaza South Financial District 419,371 0 0 309,457 0 0 100,909 Central Plaza South Financial District 379,203 38,882 14,128 93,035 (10,084) (12,397) 99,762 One Tehama South Financial District 98,566 0 0 0 98,566 0 98,566 Embarcadero Center Financial District 1,035,779 24,030 8,288 14,856 25,665 22,484 98,198 Bayside Towers Foster City/Redwood… 141,551 0 0 74,241 19,525 0 93,766 Subtotal Primary Competitors 7,292,466 189,863 890,758 1,107,669 1,366,670 147,780 3,586,480 Remaining San Francisco Market 169,590,650 10,151,542 (685,299) 5,327 (386,117) 403,084 (500,714) Total San Francisco Market 176,883,116 10,341,405 205,459 1,112,996 980,553 550,864 3,085,766 10/30/2019 Copyrighted report licensed to Hughes Marino - 572437.
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