Agro Bali : Agricultural Journal e-ISSN 2655-853X Vol. 4 No. 2: 159-169, July 2021 DOI: 10.37637/ab.v4i2.714

Assessment Model Impact of Climate Change on Potential Production for Food and Energy Needs for the Coastal Areas of ,

Eko Sumartono1, Gita Mulyasari2, Ketut Sukiyono2 1Student for Doctoral Program in Agricultural Science, University of Bengkulu and Lecturer in Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Dehasen Bengkulu 2Lecturer at the Doctoral Program in Agricultural Science, Bengkulu University Corresponding author email: [email protected]

Abstract. Bengkulu is said to be the center of the world's climate because of the influence of water conditions and the topography of the area where the rain cloud formation starts. The waters in Bengkulu Province become a meeting place for four ocean currents which eventually become an area where the evaporation process of forming rain clouds becomes the rainy or dry season and affects the world climate. Method to analyze descriptively, shows oldeman Classification and satellite rainfall estimation data is added. In relation to the Analysis of Potential Food Availability for the Coastal Areas of Bengkulu Province uses a quantifiable descriptive analysis method based. The results show that most are included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, which means it is suitable for continuous rice but less production due to generally low radiation intensity throughout the year. In an effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of climate change on food crop production, it is necessary to suggest crop diversification, crop rotation, and the application of production enhancement technologies. Strategies in building food availability as a result of climate change are: First, develop food supplies originating from regional production and food reserves on a provincial scale. Second, Empowering small-scale food businesses which are the dominant characteristics of the agricultural economy, especially lowland rice and horticultural crops. Third, Increase technology dissemination and increase the capacity of farmers in adopting appropriate technology to increase crop productivity and business efficiency. Four, Promote the reduction of food loss through the use of food handling, processing and distribution technologies. Keywords: climate change; coastal areas; food and energy needs; model; potential production.

INTRODUCTION the movement of the ITCZ (Intertropical Climate information is needed, Convergence Zone) are closely related to especially in agriculture. Indonesia, which is variations in annual and semi-annual rainfall an agricultural country, really needs climate in Indonesia (Aldrian & Dwi Susanto, 2003; information, especially the climate Tjasyono et al., 2004). This monsoon classification in each region. The climate regulates the climate in parts of the Indian classification system that is widely used in continent which results in warm wet seasons Indonesia is the Oldeman classification. The and dry winters (Berliana, 2006). Local wind Oldeman classification is used because it circulation also affects climatic conditions, relates the relationship between climate, especially the process of circulation of land plant type, and the appropriate planting time winds and sea breezes (Bannu, 2003). The of a place. Oldeman's climate classification monsoon wind period is seasonal, while the uses the element of rainfall as the basis for land and sea winds are daily (Tjasyono, determining his climate classification. 2006). Rainfall patterns in a year play an important Indonesia is an agricultural country role in making climate classification where agriculture plays an important role in information in a region (Oldeman L.R. dan the entire national economy. This can be M. Frere, 1982). Rainfall patterns in the shown from the number of people or workers Indonesian region are dominated by the who live or work in the agricultural sector influence of several phenomena, including and national products derived from the Asia-Australia, El-Nino, East-West agriculture. The agricultural sector is very (Walker Circulation) and North-South vulnerable to climate change because it (Hadley Circulation) circulation systems as affects cropping patterns (Md. Naimur, 2020; well as several circulations due to local Parker Id et al., 2019; Passeri et al., 2016), influences such as those already mentioned. planting time (Yao et al., 2015), production described (Hermawan, 2010). Monsoon and (Smith & Gregory, 2013), development of

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pests (Stoeckli et al., 2012)and quality of Details about this source text are yields (Peltonen-Sainio et al., 2016). required for the source text to obtain The Agency for the Assessment and additional translation information. The Application of Technology (BPPT) argued, characteristic that stands out in a tropical based on recent research, Bengkulu Province climate is the high average daily temperature is considered to be the center of the world's compared to other climates. One of the climate. the provisional results of the problems caused by this climate in relation to research, the rain clouds in Indonesia are the city as a place for humans to live and mostly formed in Bengkulu. The cloud carry out daily work activities is as follows: moves to spread throughout the Maritime 1. Warming caused by solar radiation, Continent of Indonesia and other countries in the sun emits radiant heat to the earth's the world. "In general, the clouds that are surface. The heat emitted by the sun to the formed are Cumulonimbus (cb) clouds earth's surface does not depend on whether (BPTP, 2015) the earth's surface is a city (urban) or a village Bengkulu is the center of climate (rural), but is more subject to the angle of fall because of the influence of water conditions - radiation will reach a maximum amount of and the topography of the area where the rain 90 ˚ fall angle, as well as depending on cloud cloud formation starts. The waters in conditions that can block it. the radiation Bengkulu Province become a meeting place emission. The implication of radiation to the for four ocean currents which eventually earth's surface will be different when the become an area where the evaporation surface has different characters in terms of process of forming rain clouds becomes the absorption and reflection of the radiation. rainy or dry season and affects the world 2. The occurrence of 'Heat Urban Island' climate (BPTP, 2015; Republika, 2015) . Due to the closure of the ground surface by The first sea current, called the All-Year concrete (which can be in the form of Season flow, moves from the waters of Aceh buildings or pavement) and asphalt (roads Province to West and ends in and parking lots), most of the solar radiation Bengkulu waters or moves from northwest to that falls on the surface is absorbed and then southeast. The current meets the Indonesian released again into the air above. and Cross current moving from the south of Java surrounding. The heat release absorbed by Island. Indonesian monsoons from the Sunda hard materials such as concrete or asphalt Strait, and the Southern equatorial currents will be much greater than what occurs in originating from the Indian Ocean. The plants. Because most of the city area is meeting of these currents occurs a water covered by hard materials, the city air cycle and forms a fairly large rain cloud temperature is higher than the surrounding (BPTP, 2015). So this condition Bengkulu area which is still rural. This phenomenon is Province has a different tropical climate often referred to as a heat urban island, where character. the physical area of the city seems to be an Problems From Tropical Climate island radiating heat in the middle of a green Regions Classically, the tropical climate is expanse of a rural area. divided into two: wet tropical and dry The objectives of this study are as follows: tropical. De Wall divides tropical climates 1. Knowing the impact of climate change on into 10 classifications based on average daily socio-economic development in Bengkulu temperatures and the difference between day Province by looking at the Classification and night temperatures. In this grouping, Analysis of Old Man which is used because it only cities or regions that have an average links the relationship between climate, type of daily temperature of 28˚c or more are plant, and the correct planting time in a place? 2. included in the tropical climate category. How is the food availability strategy of Province Bengkulu related to the potential of production

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with food needs and energy potential for food coastal areas of bengkulu in its development, production needs as a result of climate change? the linkage of production with food and energy needs as a result of climate change METHODS uses a quantifiable descriptive analysis Matching the results of data analysis used method based on the results of several by (Paski, 2017) is monthly rainfall data from previous scientific studies of researchers. 13 rainpoints in Bengkulu as well as satellite rainfall data for TMPA (TRMM Multisatellite RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Precipitation Analysis) and IMERG Climate Classification Assessment Model (Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM) In Bengkulu Province level 3 (3B43) ) to analyze descriptively the Bengkulu Province is a coastal area potential of the Bengkulu coastal area. which is located on the west coast of According to (Paski, 2017), states that the Sumatra, directly adjacent to the Indian TMPA and IMERG products used are rainfall Ocean and in the east it is surrounded by a estimation data using satellites with a spatial series of hillside mountain ranges, this causes resolution of 0.25o x 0.25o, the data period Bengkulu province to have very distinctive used is from 1998 to 2016. The TRMM and weather conditions. The flow of air masses GPM grids used include Bengkulu region, originating from high evaporation in the namely 5º 40 'latitude - 2º 0' latitude and 100º Indian Ocean which is moving towards 40 'east longitude - 104º 0' longitude. Popular Bengkulu province is uplifted after being rain post data from various cities and districts, blocked by the Bukit Barisan mountains so such as Table 1. The number of raindrops and that the growth of convective clouds is very BMKG stations connecting 16 and the intensive. Bengkulu region generally has an number of satellite grid points (TRMM and equatorial rain type with maximum rain GPM) installed are 169, so the total data used peaks in March and December (Paski, 2015). is 185 points (see, Figure 2). When viewed from the geographical and The limitation of rainfall data from rain topographical location factors, climate posts is the background for the use of satellite classification is very much needed for the data (TRMM and GPM), satellite data is used Bengkulu region, however Bengkulu as a complement to the distance of rain post Province only has a few rain observation points. In the study (Paski, 2017)used points. The latest data shows rain posts that TRMM data type 3B43 Version 7, have made observations with a duration of abbreviated as 3B43V7, which can be more than 19 years with good data quality are downloaded on the website 13 cooperative rain posts and 3 BMKG http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov, TRMM data stations. The minimal number of rain post and GPM 3B43V7 are level 3 rainfall points cannot produce an optimal Oldeman estimation data which various corrections Classification agro-climate map, to have been made, including the addition of complement the distance of rain post points, other satellite data that requires further satellite rainfall estimation data is added. correction. The TRMM and GPM download The criteria put forward by Oldeman data formats are in the form of netCDF were based on the number of Wet Months (network Common Data Form), where the (BB) and Dry Months (BK). From the netCDF (.nc) data is extracted according to calculations carried out, the amount of the specified grid and converted to ASCII rainfall of 200mm / month is considered format. Data extraction and conversion uses sufficient to cultivate lowland rice. For a the Python 2.7 program language . rainfall of 100mm / month it is considered In relation to the assessment model sufficient to cultivate secondary crops. impact of climate change on potential Oldeman L.R. dan M. Frere (1982) in production for food and energy needs for the Tjasyono et al. (2004) also defines wet

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months as months with total rainfall> consecutive dry months, namely: zone 1, 200mm/ month and dry months as months zone 2, zone 3 and zone 4 (Lakit, 1994). The with <100mm / month, while months with characteristics of these zones differ from one rainfall between 100mm – 200mm are humid another which is called the agro-climate months. The main type of Oldeman's zone. The agro-climate zone is then mapped classification is based on the number of into an agro-climate map that can be used as consecutive wet months, namely: zone A, a reference for planting both agriculture and zone B, zone C, zone D, and zone E. While plantations. the subtypes are based on the number of

Energy Need Sample Rain Point

Indicator Oldeman Climate Impact Food Zone Climate Producti Change Change on Data extraction and conversion

Changes in Interpretation of food Oldeman's Classification handling technology

Figure 1. Assessment model impact of climate change

Figure 2. Post Distribution (a) Rain and Grid Point Distribution for TMPA and IMERG (b)

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Table 1. Average Monthly Rainfall 1998-2016 (mm)

Pos Point Rainfall Jan Feb March Apr May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec Air Bening 267 212 210 288 216 145 179 177 192 249 294 303 Air Muring 287 223 229 259 192 213 192 271 286 355 370 342 Baturoto 512 398 432 532 422 298 377 308 396 421 598 472 Bukit Kaba 257 191 204 284 180 113 142 156 143 237 269 258 Giri Mulyo 320 266 265 315 280 269 216 236 224 366 399 349 Kabawetan 387 290 326 314 219 139 181 148 164 268 408 426 Kanpel Linau 234 199 177 176 223 153 165 232 255 287 428 342 Karang Pulau 242 182 195 240 167 166 160 241 206 286 350 231 Kelobak 398 331 410 395 272 120 171 139 145 305 474 490 Kembang Mumpo 260 186 195 213 165 135 191 216 290 305 390 309 Kuro Tidur 283 231 227 258 233 211 182 210 218 373 341 306 Manna 284 260 237 235 219 168 269 303 409 414 468 415 Medan Jaya 266 229 173 250 164 171 185 234 250 269 382 291 Meteorological Station 348 260 293 296 210 173 191 210 196 279 420 447 Geophysical Station 355 302 306 318 196 132 134 114 140 267 384 423 Climatology Station 340 271 311 281 213 205 187 203 209 273 437 481 Source : BMKG Station Provinsi Bengkulu, 2018

Data from 13 cooperative rain posts and monthly rainfall in several regions has more BMKG stations in the Bengkulu region wet months (> 200 mm) than dry months (Table 1), it can be seen that the average (Paski, 2017).

Figure 3. Map of Agro-climate in Oldeman Province, Bengkulu Based on the map of the results of the Bengkulu Province has 4 types of climate, Agro-climatic distribution of the Oldeman namely types A1, B1, C1, and D1. Of climate classification (see Figure 3), Bengkulu's 19,788 km2 area, the majority of

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climate type A1 reaches 83.9%, climate type most of the areas in Bengkulu are suitable for A1 is as much as 4.8%, climate type C1 is continuous rice but production is lacking due 1.2% and climate type D1 is as much as to generally low radiation intensity 0.1%. The districts of Lebong and Bengkulu throughout the year. As many as 4.8% of the Selatan only have one climate classification, area in Bengkulu is suitable for continuous namely A1. Muko-muko and rice with good planning at the beginning of Bengkulu City have 2 types of climate, the planting season and high production namely A1 and B1. For districts that have 3 when the harvest is dry season, for areas that types of climate (A1, B1, and C1), namely can plant rice once and crops twice a year as North Bengkulu, Seluma and Kaur. much as 1.2% and the area for planting aged Especially for Rejang , it rice short one time and usually high bias has 4 types of climate, namely A1, B1, C1, production due to high radiation flux density and D1. The breadth of climate type A1 with sufficient cropping time of 0.1%. indicates that based on the rainfall factor Table 2. Interpretation of Oldeman's Classification Climate Tipe Information A1; A2 Suitable for continuous rice but less production due to general intensity low radiation all year round high radiation. The time for planting crops is sufficient B1 Suitable for continuous paddy with good early season planning. Production is high when the harvest is dry season B2; B3 Can plant rice twice a year with varieties of short life and dry season short enough for crops C1 Can plant rice once and secondary crops twice a year C2;C3;C4 A year, you can only plant rice once and the second crop of crops must be careful not to fall in dry months D1 Plant short-lived rice once and usually the production is high due to the flux density D2;D3;D4 Maybe only once rice or once crops a year, depending on the availability irrigation water supply E This area is generally too dry, maybe you only get one secondary crop, that too depending on the rain Source: Table Oldeman's Classification (Paski, 2017)

Observations of 13 cooperative rain which means it is suitable for continuous rice posts and 3 BMKG stations in the Bengkulu but less production due to generally low region show that the average monthly rainfall radiation intensity throughout the year. has more wet months (> 200 mm) than dry However, other impacts related to months (<100 mm). The addition of rainfall climate are closely related to climate change estimation data from satellite images can and global warming can reduce agricultural increase the density and distribution of production by 5-20 percent. Climate change rainfall in Bengkulu Province by using linear is a condition characterized by changing corrections, resulting in a better Oldeman world climate patterns which results in classification map. The results show that erratic weather phenomena. Climate change most of the areas in Bengkulu Province are occurs due to changes in climate variables, included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, such as air temperature and rainfall, which

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occur continuously over a long period of time managing the farm where reliable extension between 50 and 100 years. Climate change is agents are prepared as a result of climate also influenced by unstable weather change. conditions, for example erratic rainfall, Fourth, promote the reduction of food frequent storms, extreme air temperatures, loss through the use of food handling, and drastic changes in wind direction. processing and distribution technologies. Increasing the accessibility of farmers Food Availability Strategy as a Impact of physically and economically to food Climate Change processing technology is mandatory and The main capital in realizing food absolutely necessary. availability is the wealth of diverse resources, the availability of technology, and the Potential Production With Food Needs As development of strategic partnerships with The Impact of Climate Change various stakeholder components between (1) In an effort to reduce or eliminate the regions in Bengkulu Province. Food impact of climate change on food crop availability is the first of the three subsystems production, it is necessary to suggest crop in the food security system and the base of diversification, crop rotation, and the efforts to achieve food independence and application of production enhancement sovereignty. The four strategies proposed in technologies. In Indonesia, especially in building food availability are as follows. Bengkulu, reducing the impact of climate First, the Bengkulu Provincial change can technically be pursued through Government needs to build a food supply several efforts. Identifying areas of drought, originating from regional production and flooding, endemic pests and plant diseases food reserves on a provincial scale. If the two based on climatic conditions, soil conditions food sources cannot fulfill or fulfill the needs, and local culture; then the food supply can be from areas (2) Developing techniques for predicting and outside Bengkulu province through the predicting accurate climate factors in order to national food supply balance mechanism. provide early warning to farmers about Second, to empower small-scale food imminent climate change; businesses which are the dominant (3) Preparing a cultivation technology characteristics of the agricultural economy, package that is able to adapt to El Nino and especially rice and horticultural crops, it is La Nina conditions, covering cropping necessary to: (a) harmonize or integrate patterns, varieties, pest and disease control, small-scale food business activities into the as well as inputs that are easily accessible to food supply chain and ( b) efforts to collect farmers; small-scale farms so as to achieve economies (4) Improve irrigation channels, especially of scale by applying socio-economic paddy fields to increase production capacity engineering such as corporate farming or and prevent crop failure during the dry contract farming in a certain scale between season, especially in rice production centers. regions within districts and cities. (5) Increase the productivity of farming, Third, boosting technology especially in the fields of plantation and dissemination and increasing the capacity of lowland rice farming, namely the use of farmers in adopting appropriate technology certified or standardized quality and quality to increase crop productivity and business seeds as well as the use of balanced efficiency. One of the operational steps that fertilizers. Fertilizer must be available and on can be taken is to increase the capacity of time according to farmers' needs. Farming extension workers and farmers, both from the productivity increases according to standards technical aspect and managerial capability in and ultimately leads to the welfare of

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farmers. So "Certified seeds are a necessity rice and lowland rice. Rice basically relies on that must be met, so that productivity can be water supply. There are at least several types achieved. The issue of seeds is not only at the of rice fields, namely: rice fields with level of availability but also about skylights, living rice fields, swampy rice affordability and distribution, " fields, tidal fields, moor and fields or huma Food crop development must take into (dry rice) that do not rely on water. Living- account local land and climatic conditions. lean rice fields are almost evenly distributed Not a single component of cultivation throughout the area. These rice fields are technology is the best in all locations given routinely irrigated either by means of the variety of abiotic, biotic, social, economic waterwheels or river dams. Rice fields with and cultural conditions of farmers. One of the the sky always depend on their water supply technological innovations in rice, corn and from rainwater. Repung is land provided by soybean production that takes into account the community to be planted with food crops local conditions is the Rice Expert System by each clan. The planted land is (SIPADI), the Corn Expert System carbohydrate-producing plants. This repung (SIPAJA), the Soybean Expert System works very well during an emergency, when (SIPALE). the danger of starvation threatens. At that This expert system integrates computer time, food shortages often occurred when programs designed to model the problem- drought hit the community. solving abilities faced by farmers in a Other conditions also need to develop in specific location. The variables in this model the community plantation system that has consist of soil physical, climate, plant been passed down from generation to nutrition, pests and diseases, weeds, socio- generation where the plantation expert economic conditions, and labor. Moreover, at system is activated as well, for example the this time Bengkulu has been supported by Coffee Plantation Expert system (SIBUN changes in the irrigation system which have KOPI), the Oil Palm Plantation Expert begun to be activated again, such as the System (Marginal Land that needs to be Majunto Reservoir Irrigation, and several developed) (SIBUN SAWIT), the Spice reservoir irrigation which are being built Plantation System ( SIPARE) as well as such as in Padang Guci, Seginim-Kedurang horticultural farming systems (especially in Irrigation has been reactivated. So that it can the highlands) of Bengkulu Province such as support sustainable coastal food agriculture Rejang Lebong and Kepahyang. in accordance with local wisdom. For Energy Potential For Food Production example, there is local wisdom in the Needs In Anticipating Climate Change community, such as in . Along the coastal area of Bengkulu Repung: Forms of Community Local Province, it is known that there are 124 large Wisdom in the Agricultural Sector which has and small rivers which upstream in the Bukit a historical aspect, the area is ecologically a Barisan area and flow westward, which combination of rice fields and cultivation, the empties into the Indian Ocean. The existence people strive for these two sectors. In the of rivers that flow along the coastal areas of fields, rice is planted while in the fields, Bengkulu Province, has a mutually besides being planted with rice, the fields are influencing relationship. also planted with export commodity crops The types of rivers that exist along the such as coffee, rubber, and so on. coastal areas of Bengkulu Province generally This is closely related to the condition have relatively straight and short flow of the location of agricultural land which is characteristics, where this condition on high land and lowland so that it affects the encourages high rates of erosion in damaged type of rice planted. Broadly speaking, there river basins. The high rate of erosion results are two types of rice planted, namely lowland

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in a very large volume of transported region show that the average monthly rainfall sediment, which causes high turbidity in the has more wet months (> 200 mm) than dry river estuary area. Some of the rivers that months (<100 mm). The results show that flow along the coastal areas of Bengkulu most of the areas in Bengkulu Province are Province are used for irrigation purposes, included in the Oldeman A1 climate zone, such as the Kedurang River, Padang Guci which means it is suitable for continuous rice River, Air Nipis River, Suangai Air Nalas, but less production due to generally low Air Seluma River, Air Padang River, and M radiation intensity throughout the year. In an Contino River. effort to reduce or eliminate the impact of In an effort to fulfill water as a need for climate change on food crop production, it is agricultural production in Bengkulu province necessary to suggest crop diversification, as a whole. Utilization of the energy potential crop rotation, and the application of of river water in an effort to ensure food production enhancement technologies. availability in Bengkulu province needs to be The four strategies in building food carried out with various infrastructure availability as a result of climate change are developments such as the addition of that the First, Bengkulu Provincial reservoirs, embungs, and irrigation channels. Government needs to build a food supply Currently, Bengkulu has been supported by originating from regional production and changes in the irrigation system which has food reserves on a provincial scale. Second, begun to be activated again, such as Irrigation Empowering small-scale food businesses for the Majunto Reservoir, and several which are the dominant characteristics of the reservoir irrigation which are being built, agricultural economy, especially lowland such as in Padang Guci, Seginim-Kedurang rice and horticultural crops. Third, increasing Irrigation has been reactivated. However, an technology dissemination and increasing the increase is needed so that it can be maximally capacity of farmers in adopting appropriate boosted production needs in several technology to increase crop productivity and agricultural areas in Bengkulu province as a business efficiency. Fourth, promote the result of climate change. The potential of reduction of food loss through the use of food other non-biological resources in Bengkulu handling, processing and distribution Province in the form of mining, maritime and technologies. Increase Production Potential energy materials is enormous. Climate in an effort to increase food demand as a change that affects coastal areas is not only result of climate change. Maximizing the detrimental to fishermen's agriculture, but potential for energy to meet production needs can also benefit lowland rice farming and in anticipation of climate change through horticulture. An example of an energy that is infrastructure development such as the rarely utilized from the maritime sector is the addition of reservoirs, embungs, and repair of use of wind energy (Bayu) to meet irrigation channels and the use of wind production needs in the agricultural sector technology (wind). and horticultural food crops. If this is utilized, what will happen is the rise of the REFERENCES agricultural sector in coastal areas by Aldrian, E., & Dwi Susanto, R. (2003). utilizing wind energy (wind) to generate Identification Of Three Dominant electricity which can be used to turn on water Rainfall Regions Within Indonesia And pumps when the dry season arrives as an Their Relationship To Sea Surface alternative solution. Temperature. International Journal Of Climatology Int. J. Climatol, 23, 1435– CONCLUSION 1452. Https://Doi.Org/10.1002/Joc.950 Observations of 13 cooperative rain Bannu. (2003). Analisis Interaksi Monsun, posts and 3 BMKG stations in the Bengkulu Enso Dan Dipole Mode Serta Kaitannya

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