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Multi-Model Evaluation of Blue and Green Water Availability Under University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC) Institut National de l’Eau (INE) Graduate Research Program on Climate Change and Water Resources MULTI-MODEL EVALUATION OF BLUE AND GREEN WATER AVAILABILITY UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN FOUR-NON SAHELIAN BASINS OF THE NIGER RIVER BASIN A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) By Djigbo Félicien BADOU Jury: Prof. Dr. Euloge K. AGBOSSOU, University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin President Prof. Abel A. AFOUDA, University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin Supervisor Prof. Dr. Bernd DIEKKRÜGER, University of Bonn, Germany Supervisor Dr. Evison KAPANGAZIWIRI, CSIR, South Africa Supervisor Dr. Kwasi PREKO, Kwamé Nkrumah University, Ghana Examiner Prof. Dr. Luc O. SINTONDJI, University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin Examiner Dr. Bamory KAMAGATE, Université Nangui Abrogoua, Côte d’Ivoire, Rapporteur Defence date: September 09, 2016 Genius is 10 per cent inspiration and 90 per cent perspiration. Thomas Edison If you scrutinise beyond the horizons, seas, mountains and hills, you will see the rising sun. Jean-Claude Giannada Those who wept as they went out carrying the seed will come back singing for joy, as they bring in the harvest. Psalm 126, 6 ii Dedication I dedicate this work to my late father, who despite his illiterate status, knew the prominence of instruction and struggled for me to go to school. I was a little boy when you departed. I am certain that from above you rejoice for what the Lord has done for me through this PhD thesis. iii Acknowledgements Glory is to the Almighty God who gave me the breath of life and strength to achieve this PhD dissertation. A three years journey is over. All the means (stipends, research budget, and other facilities) to undertake the journey was provided by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the auspices of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) and the Graduate Research Program Climate Change and Water Resources of the University of Abomey-Calavi. The voyage would have not been possible without the precious help of a great number of persons. At the very beginning, there was Dr. Edem N’Tsoukpoé who convinced me to undertake the journey while I was hesitating between my career of water engineer and a doctoral study. I owe more than gratitude to my PhD supervision team. Special appreciation goes to Prof. Abel A. Afouda for his multiform supports as Director of the doctoral school and as Supervisor. Like most of the Beninese water specialists, I think that you deserve the nickname of the “baobab of water” not just as compliment but because of your commitment, abnegation and battle for the water sector in Benin. It is so hard to find the right words to express my gratefulness to Prof. Dr. Bernd Diekkrüger for his father- like care. I have been particularly amazed by your unique availability and your stringent guidance. And of course, thank you for having welcomed me in the Hydrologic Research Group (HRG) for my working stay in Bonn. I acknowledge my indebtedness to Dr. Evison Kapangaziwiri for his acceptance to co-supervise the dissertation, for the many fruitful discussions we had, and for thoroughly correcting my writing. It is worth to mention the contribution of Dr. Aymar Bossa in designing the PhD proposal and during the research. I am grateful to the teams of WASCAL Benin (Dr. Julien Adounkpè, Mrs. Zannou, Mrs. Imelda Djagoun, and Mr. Salem Elégbédé) and the Laboratory of Applied Hydrology (Prof. Boukari Moussa, Prof. Daouda Mama, Prof. Emmanuel Lawin, Dr. Eric Alamou, and Mrs. Marcelline Ollou) for the collaboration. During data collection, I benefited from the generosity and help of the following people and thank them: Mr. Avocè (ASECNA) for Benin climate data, Ms. Jamila Beigou and Mr. Moussa Ibrahim for Niger Climate data, Mrs. Fofana Rafatou, sirs Gongossou and Gildas Sossa Tossou (DGEau) for streamflow time series, Dr. Patricia Botongo and Mrs. Maï Kaboré for Burkina Faso weather data, Dr. Carsten Montzka (Research Center Jülich, Germany) for remotely-sensed soil moisture data, Dr. Mamadou Lamine Bah, Dr. Ganiyu Oyerinde, Mr. Nikiema Michel and Mr. Yacouba YIRA for Cordex regional climate models archives, and Dr. Abdoulaye Djafarou and Mr. Abou (CENATEL) for land use maps. iv I joyfully remembered the months spent on the field to collect soil samples across the Benin portion of Niger River including the W-Park and the Dassari basin at the sides of Dr. Maurice Ahouansou, Elliott Dossou-Yovo, Mr. Malick Agnoro, Mr. Sylvestre Tossavi, Alaza, Tidjani, Mr. Gildas Boko, Mr. Aziz Tipki and his driver Cyrille, and the many other unknown labours. Soil analyses were conducted at the Benin Agricultural Research Institute (INRAB), the Laboratory of Hydraulics and Water Management (LHME) and the Laboratory of Soil Science (LSS) by Sylvestre Tossa, Curie Gansé, Christelle, Rodrigue and Issiakou under the control of Dr. Mathieu and Prof. Amadji to whom I say thank you. My stay in Bonn would have not be fruitful without the contribution of Gero Steup, Yacoucba Yira, Thomas Jutten, Ozias Hounkpati, Felix, Alexandre Danvi, Claudia Schepp, Kristian, Dr. Simone Giertz, Prof. Skowenek, Dr. Cornelissen, Dr. Leemhius Constance, Kristina, Martins, Geofried, Amelia and all the other members of the Hydrologic Research Group (HRG). I am also indebted to the English community of the church Saint Thomas Moore who helped me to worship during my stay in Bonn. To all these nice people that I met in Germany, I say thank you! I also had great times with my fellows of the first and second batches of the WASCAL programme to whom I wish to express my gratitude! Special thanks to Jean Hounkpè, Laurice C. Faye, Valentin K. Koffi, Dr. Alice Bonou-Fandohan, Dr. Charlène Gaba, Dr. Biao Eliézer, Djiby Sambou, Fati Aziz, Adama Touré, Kossi Komi, Vincent Azuka, Dr. Oyerindé Ganiyu, Dr. Maléki Badjana, and Martial Yéo. I do not forget the friends who supported me during time of trials: the couples Abionan, Banon, Hounkpè, Doko, Houédjissi, Sedegan, Chabi, and also the brothers Hubert Blo, and Achille Ahowèssè. Last but most important, I have received comforts and comforts from my family especially from my mother Mrs. Micheline Badou for whom I hope this dissertation is a good reward. I will also always remember my uncle, Mr. Louis Badou (my second father) and his wife for their unfailing support. May God bless you all for your multiform contributions! v Abstract A proper estimation of future water availability is vital information for water planners. However, most contemporary quantitative hydrological predictions are mostly streamflow-centred which makes them fundamentally uncertain. Since, total streamflow represents only 35% of the total incoming rainfall at the global scale and even less than that in regions like West Africa, an alternative of using soil moisture and evapotranspiration is a possibility. This study explored these alternative avenues for more accurate hydrological prediction. From a theoretical perspective, water resources were treated as blue water (BW, sum of streamflow and deep aquifer recharge) and green water (GW, sum of actual evapotranspiration and soil moisture). The theoretical aspect also addressed the uncertainties associated with the use of a single hydrological model and adopted a multi-model evaluation instead. This theoretical framework was applied to the Benin Portion of the Niger River Basin, a conglomerate of four understudied and poorly gauged basins, Coubéri, Gbassè, Yankin, and Kompongou. This area provides a number of ecosystem services whose sustenance requires better hydrological knowledge. To this purpose, four objectives were addressed in order to assess the impact of climate change on future BW and GW availability in the study area. The first objective was to identify within a set of hydrological models the most suitable ones to better simulate streamflow and soil moisture. The performance of four hydrological models (HBV-light, UHP-HRU, SWAT and WaSiM) to simulate daily streamflow and the ability of three of these models (UHP-HRU, SWAT and WaSiM) to reproduce daily remotely-sensed soil moisture dynamic were compared. The results showed that none of the hydrological models clearly outperformed the others in the simulation of streamflow in all the basins. While WaSiM was the most suitable to simulate streamflow in the Yankin and Kompongou basins, HBV-light was the best for the Coubéri and Gbassè basins. However, regardless of the basin, UHP-HRU was the most adequate model to simulate soil moisture. The second objective dealt with the downscaling of three regional climate models outputs (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the historical period (1976-2005) and the future (2021-2050). To this end, the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) was used. The results suggested that rainfall will increase (1.7 to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but will show mixed-trends (-8.5 to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase (-0.1 to 0.48°C) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 (-0.37 to 0.1°C). On the basis of the results of the two previous objectives, the third objective was to quantify the future BW only with the models found robust to simulate streamflow and future GW solely with the models found suitable to simulate soil moisture. It was found that GW will increase in all the four investigated basins while BW will only increase in the Kompongou basin. The last objective was about the quantification of the overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of future BW and GW. This was done by computing the inter- vi quartile range of the total number of model realizations for each basin. The results show that BW evaluation is associated with larger uncertainty than GW quantification.
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