Oceans of Work Arms Conversion Revisited
Published by the British American This report has been written by Dr. Security Information Council Steven Schofield, a BASIC Consultant. BASIC in the UK is a registered charity no. Dr Schofield’s doctorate at Bradford 1001081. University was on arms conversion and BASIC in the US is a non-profit organization he was the co-founder of the Project on constituted under Section 501(c)(3) of the US Demilitarisation. He was the author of Internal Revenue Service Code the first Oceans of Work report BASIC Research Report 2007.1 - January 2007 published by the Barrow Alternative Employment Committee in 1987. He has BASIC subsequently published widely on For 20 years, BASIC has worked as an military procurement, disarmament, independent research and advocacy industrial and technology policy and organisation. Our research is respected economic regeneration. He works as a and trusted, and widely used by many freelance researcher. Contact details – other organisations and individuals. We [email protected] focus on transatlantic security and arms Acknowledgements control issues as a means of creating a British American Thanks to Derek Brook, Ian Davis, Paul more stable and secure world. With Ingram, Terry McSorley, Maggie Mort and Security Information offices, staff, advisors, patrons and Barbara Panvel for advice and comments, governing board membership on both and to the staff of Barrow Borough Council, Council sides of the Atlantic, we play a unique Furness Enterprise and the North West The Grayston Centre, role as a transatlantic bridge for policy Regional Development Agency for makers and opinion shapers. information on the Barrow-in-Furness 28 Charles Square, economy. London N1 6HT UK See our website for further details on Support the Trident replacement debate: Tel: 020 7324 4680 This publication was made possible through www.basicint.org Email: [email protected] funding from the Joseph Rowntree Charitable The content of this report is the sole Trust, The Ploughshares Fund and the Anita Roddick Foundation. and responsibility of the author and does 110 Maryland Ave, NE, not necessarily reflect the views of BASIC, its staff or Council members. Cover photos: Bob Straughton Suite 205 Washington, Cover photo of welder: Vesta’s factory in DC 20002, USA Campbeltown, Scotland. September 2004 Printed by Seacourt Ltd, Oxford on © Greenpeace / Kate Davison Tel: +1 202 546 8055 a waterless offset printing press Cover photo of offshore wind turbines also using paper of at least 75% post- © Greenpeace / Kate Davison www.basicint.org consumer recycled paper. Back cover photo: Bob Straughton Seacourt are EMAS certified and Inside front cover photo: John Northrup, carbon neutral. www.seacourt.net Tug Hill, NY, USA. i Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Contents
iii Executive Summary
v Introduction
1 Chapter One - Historical Background to Arms Conversion
3 Chapter Two - The Barrow Shipyard and Oceans of Work
6 Chapter Three - Arms Conversion Research and Policy Options 6 Introduction 7 Community Conversion 7 Macro-Economic Conversion 8 Comprehensive Conversion 10 Consolidation Rather Than Conversion 11 Conclusion
12 Chapter Four - The UK Military-Industrial Base and Arms Conversion 12 Introduction 12 Options for Change 14 Defence Industrial Strategy 14 The Trident Network 15 Trident Employment 16 Non-Offensive Defence Policy 17 Conclusion
18 Chapter Five - Alternative Technological Trajectories and Arms Conversion 18 Introduction 18 Early Years of Funding for Renewable Energy in the UK 19 Denmark and Wind Power 20 The UK and THORP 22 Contemporary Policy 23 A War on Global Warming 23 Conclusion
25 Chapter Six - Barrow-in-Furness and the Closure of the Shipyard 25 Introduction 25 Employment Decline, 1990-2006 26 The Local Economic Context 27 Keep Our Future Afloat Campaign (KOFAC), or Getting the Shipyard Off Our Backs (GOSUB) 29 Conclusion
31 Conclusion
Windfarm in Washington State 34 Endnotes USA Photo: Tara Jorgensen
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org ii Executive Summary
This report is published a month after the Government’s White Paper outlining its decision to replace Vanguard ballistic missile submarines with an indigenously-manufactured submarine to continue deploying Britain’s strategic nuclear weapons.1 The House of Commons is due to vote on the White Paper in March. This report also comes two weeks after the House of Commons Defence Committee published its report on the industrial requirements surrounding this decision. The Committee concluded that British manufacture of nuclear-powered submarines required a regular orderbook without gaps.2
This report puts the case for arms Arms conversion is still popularly More radically, as in this report, conversion as integral to a ‘national associated with the end of the conversion is put forward as part of needs’ programme of civil R&D and Second World War, and the a ‘national needs’ agenda, manufacture, including a major successful re-integration of millions highlighting a fundamental shift investment in offshore renewable of people, both from the armed from military R&D and energy, for both security of supply forces and from the arms procurement to a programme of and to help tackle the growing industries, into civil manufacturing. investment in civil technologies for international threat from climate But this was essentially a major objectives like renewable change. It is based on a reconversion exercise back to civil energy and reduced carbon reevaluation of ‘Oceans of Work’, production in which companies had emissions in the face of a global produced by the Barrow Alternative considerable experience prior to the environmental crisis. Comparison is Employment Committee (BAEC) in war. The emergence of highly made between Denmark, as the 1987, as part of the campaign by specialised military firms has made leading nation in the development local trade unionists for alternative, this traditional approach of plant- and manufacture of wind turbines civil work to the construction of the based conversion problematic during the 1980s and 1990s, and Trident ballistic missile submarines because of the very different the UK’s industrial cul-de-sac of at the VSEL shipyard in Barrow-in- demands of civil manufacture and nuclear reprocessing, to emphasise Furness, West Cumbria. ‘Oceans of the high transition costs. the importance of central Work’ put forward an ambitious government leadership and broader programme to utilise the Alternative models provide a more institutional networks for shipbuilding and engineering skills relevant and contemporary successful (and unsuccessful) of the workforce, with particular approach to maximising technological emphasis on offshore renewable the economic trajectories. opportunities of energy, including wave and wind ...a fundamental The potential power systems. disarmament. For exists for a example, under shift from military massive The proposals were rejected by the macro- R&D and procurement to expansion of VSEL management who stressed the economic a programme of investment wave and continued importance of the conversion, in civil technologies for wind power company’s military specialism in central to satisfy up nuclear submarine manufacture. government major objectives like to 50% of the Employment declined, however, compensates renewable energy and UK’s energy from 12,000 in 1987 to just over for reduced reduced carbon emissions needs by 3,000 in 2006. Such job losses military in the face of a global 2030, while reflected the broader pattern of expenditure forming the consolidation and rationalisation in through other environmental basis for a major the arms industries, with overall forms of spending crisis. industry employing defence employment down from on infrastructure, tens of thousands of over 500,000 to 260,00 and with housing, etc, bringing workers to satisfy domestic BAE Systems (formerly British enhanced employment prospects, demand and export markets. Aerospace) emerging as the including those for redundant effective UK monopoly supplier in arms-industry workers. fighter aircraft, surface vessels and nuclear submarines.
iii Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 A key element of this new arms conversion framework is a fundamental review of UK security policy. Since the end of the Second World War, the underlying doctrine pursued with remarkable consistency by successive governments, has been to ensure the UK can support the United States in global force projection. The MoD’s Defence Industrial Vesta’s wind-turbine factory in Campbeltown, Scotland. September 2004 Strategy, published in 2005, which Photo: © Greenpeace / Kate Davison emphasised the need for long-range military platforms, including fighter The industrial implications of Here, the emphasis will be on aircraft, nuclear submarines and cutbacks to military procurement regeneration policy, involving aircraft carriers, is intended to are serious yet manageable and national government through the carry this doctrine on for the next temporary, including the closure of Department of Trade and Industry, twenty to thirty years. surplus manufacturing capacity and the Regional Development Agencies the run-down of military research and local economic task forces to A Non-Offensive Defence policy is facilities. Overall, approximately attract new industries and to one alternative that breaks with this 100,000 workers would lose their support programmes like the subordinate relationship and allows jobs but many of these are based in relocation of civil service functions the UK to make an effective relatively prosperous regions of the to these areas. Although there will, contribution both to new UK, where alternative employment inevitably, be disruption and higher international security challenges opportunities are high, especially unemployment in the short-term, and to international disarmament. for skilled industrial and technical the prospects exist for stronger and The focus is on territorial defence staff. The shortage of highly-skilled more diversified local economies in and a contribution to an EU workers is perhaps the most the medium to long term. peacekeeping and reconstruction important bottleneck constraining force that can carry out UN- economic development, more so The research establishments will be endorsed humanitarian than financial investment; an run down as their focus changes to interventions. Under this policy, injection of highly-skilled the dismantling and major offensive platforms, workers with expertise decommissioning of nuclear including the follow-on appropriate for the weapons. This offers the Trident ballistic growing and opportunity to redirect government missile system, Although there crucial sectors supported military R&D, running at aircraft carriers over £2 billion a year, and heavily will, inevitably, be such as the and development biased towards the South East. New conventional disruption and higher and civil, regional research facilities nuclear unemployment in the production could be supported around the submarines short-term, the prospects of national needs agenda for would be innovations in areas like hydrogen exist for stronger and renewable cancelled and energy storage of renewable energy and the UK would more diversified local technologies decentralized energy distribution be a leading economies in the will stimulate systems. proponent of a the civil medium to long Although a radical programme, this new international economy. security architecture term. is an entirely feasible one and is based on global A small number of intended to demonstrate how the disarmament. There would military-dependent UK can take a leading role in a new be the potential for major annual localities in relatively deprived international security agenda based savings of between £3-4 billion on areas face major job losses, on disarmament and sustainable military expenditure by 2012, including Barrow which would lose economic development. available for the ‘national needs’ all nuclear submarine work. programme of civil investment.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org iv Introduction
“when policy It is now twenty years since This further undermines the research was carried out on the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty becomes doctrine, possibility of alternative, civil work (NPT) and commits the UK to an the acknowledgement to the Trident ballistic-missile estimated £20-£30 billion submarine programme at the VSEL programme. It will sustain only low let alone assessment shipyard in Barrow-in-Furness, levels of employment (around of alternatives is Cumbria. The construction of the 5,000-7,000 people nationwide), four Trident submarines was one of focused on a local economy in repressed.” 3 the biggest shipbuilding and Barrow that is still heavily engineering programmes ever dependent on military work. undertaken in the UK, employing at its peak, over 14,000 people locally. Secondly, the Barrow experience is a microcosm of broader trends in ‘Oceans of Work’, published by the UK arms production, i.e., Barrow Alternative Employment consolidation and specialisation Committee (BAEC) in 1987 4 around expensive military research provided an alternative approach and development (R&D) and that stressed the over-dependency procurement programmes. The of the company and the local result has been massive job losses economy on arms production. It but little effort to provide argued that the potential existed alternative, civil manufacturing for new, civil engineering work. opportunities in the marine sector, particularly offshore renewable Thirdly, many of the arguments energy systems like wind and wave raised in the original report about power, with enhanced prospects for the lack of support for civil skilled manufacturing jobs over the alternatives like renewable energy, medium to long term. are even more relevant today, since the international energy crisis is Although the report received deepening and the issues of climate considerable national and change have become ever more international attention and was pressing. supported by senior politicians and trade union leaders, its proposals This report considers various were never seriously considered by questions, including: the company’s management. They •what lessons can be drawn from continued to stress VSEL’s expertise the Barrow and other arms in military work and its specialism conversion case studies on the in nuclear submarine production opportunities for, and barriers to, throughout the 1990s and early conversion? 2000s, while employment levels at the yard spiralled ever downwards. •what role can government play through R&D and procurement in Why, if the report failed to achieve promoting new technologies that any of its objectives, is it useful to offer opportunities for civil revisit these issues? Firstly, the manufacturing? and Government has just published its •can arms conversion be White Paper outlining its decision incorporated into a broader to replace Trident with a new framework for disarmament and generation of ballistic missile sustainable economic submarines, with the promise of a development relevant to A Trident nuclear-armed debate and vote in the House of contemporary conditions? submarine heading out to sea Commons in March of this year. from its base on the Clyde
v Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Chapter One gives a brief history of post-war arms conversion in the UK to contrast conditions in 1945, where manufacturing capacity was mainly reconverted back to civil work, and the emergence of a specialised military-industrial base in the 1960s and 1970s. Attention is focused on the example of the Lucas Aerospace Alternative Plan as a major inspiration for conversion in the UK during the 1970s and 1980s.
Chapter Two provides a short review of the structure and objectives of BAEC and the research for ‘Oceans of Work’, highlighting the potential for new, civil marine technologies, the negative response to its publication by the VSEL management, and other more favourable reaction.
Chapter Three considers some of the theoretical issues raised in the Windfarm near Fluvannah, Texas, USA Photo: Sarah Fields academic literature that provide a critique of the traditional, site- An alternative framework based on based conversion approach. It Chapter Six considers the future of a non-offensive defence strategy, a develops an overview of the various Barrow in the context of its UK contribution to an EU models including community-based dependency on nuclear submarine peacekeeping/reconstruction corps conversion, macro-economic production, the failure to broaden and a major rationalisation of conversion and comprehensive the local economic base and specialised military production is conversion, drawing out the policy continued high levels of social and assessed for its impact on implications of each approach. economic deprivation. The impact procurement and employment. of the closure of the yard is Chapter Four provides a assessed in relation to conversion Chapter Five draws on the contemporary analysis of the UK’s policy for local economies that are recommendations of ‘Oceans of military-industrial base in the highly dependent on military work. Work’ to assess the choices taken in context of consolidation and the UK’s energy policies during the internationalization, and the A concluding chapter provides a 1980s and 1990s, comparing the emergence of BAE Systems as the framework for arms conversion continued R&D support for nuclear dominant force in UK arms that links disarmament to a new power by the government against procurement. The government’s ‘national needs’ programme for the rejection of renewable energy. Defence Industrial Strategy (DIS) is civil R&D and production. Specific reference is made to the assessed for its long-term THORP nuclear programme and commitment to indigenous wave power as alternative production on a new generation of ‘technology trajectories’, and how a offensive, conventional and nuclear comprehensive conversion platforms. programme could have led to a much larger share of energy supply through offshore renewable systems that also supported an indigenous manufacturing capacity.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org vi Chapter one Historical background to Arms Conversion
Arms conversion generally invokes Not surprisingly, this successful the Old Testament expression, experience is used to support the ‘swords into plowshares’.5 This argument that arms conversion powerful imagery still resonates should be a relatively today, providing hope and straightforward exercise today, inspiration for millions of people since the restructuring of military around the world that peaceful industries and employment would alternatives can be found to the be on a much smaller scale. global arms race and to weapons of However, there is a crucial mass destruction like the UK’s difference. For the vast majority of Trident ballistic missile system. The companies, this was a return to pre- forging of handcrafted weapons in war production as tools and the agricultural societies of biblical equipment were, quite literally, times may bear little comparison to dusted off from the factory stores the industrialised and and brought back into use. So, Shipyard workers at Barrow- technologically sophisticated rather than conversion, it would be in-Furness in 1900 military production of today, but more accurate to describe this, conversion has, of course, a much generally, as ‘reconversion’, to more recent and successful forms of civil production in which historical experience. companies already had considerable experience.7 The end of the Second World War brought with it a formidable The onset of the Cold War from the economic challenge and many early 1950s onwards, brought with commentators at the time feared a it sustained high levels of military return to the sort of mass spending, unprecedented in unemployment that blighted the peacetime, and the emergence of 1930s, with over 3.5 million armed specialised military industries in forces personnel to be demobilised aerospace, shipbuilding, and 3.25 million workers in arms engineering and latterly, manufacture needing to find electronics, with little or no alternative employment. Such experience of civil work. The pessimism proved groundless. challenges of conversion were now Savings accumulated during the war much more formidable because of were available to spend on civil these specialisms, as well as the goods, stimulating demand that competition from established civil more than compensated for the companies in all these sectors. loss of military work and helping to achieve a relatively smooth During the 1970s, one pioneering transition to full employment by campaign inspired many people 1947.6 with its radical vision of conversion to socially-useful production. Lucas Aerospace was a major arms The forging of handcrafted weapons in the manufacturer, employing 13,000 agricultural societies of biblical times may workers at 17 sites. The workers were faced with clear indications bear little comparison to the industrialised and from both the government and technologically sophisticated military management that reduced orders for military equipment, during one production of today, but conversion has, of of the periodic downturns in course, a much more recent and successful expenditure, would probably lead 8 historical experience. to substantial job losses.
1 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Rather than passively accept this fate, trade union representatives from the various sites came together to draw up an alternative plan that would help both to protect jobs and to satisfy unmet social needs. For the members of the Combine committee, a key factor in arms conversion was the role of the state. The government, through military spending, had Dreadnought - the first UK prioritised certain types of However, the work behind the nuclear powered submarine production but it could equally set Combine Plan stimulated further launched in 1960 a new national economic and efforts under the banner of socially- technological agenda that looked to useful production, including a combat the growing energy crisis working prototype of the road/rail and environmental pollution, as bus and the setting up of an well as improve public transport academic centre, the Unit for the and health services. Therefore, it Development of Alternative was entirely feasible for the Products (UDAP) in Coventry to government to re-direct military follow through a range of design expenditure into innovative civil concepts.10 manufacture at companies like Lucas. Other conversion studies were also undertaken during the 1980s, Over 150 products were eventually including one focused on the proposed in a detailed, six-volume British Aerospace, Kingston site corporate plan that matched which faced redundancies and workforce skills and industrial possible closure, as well as work facilities to a range of alternative assessing regional and local products, including alternative dependency on military contracting, energy systems – solar and in the Coventry area, and in hydrogen fuel cells; public Scotland around the Faslane and transport – a hybrid road-rail bus; Coulport naval dockyards that were and medical equipment – a kidney due to service the Trident dialysis machine. submarines.11 It was in this context Not surprisingly, the Combine Plan that the Barrow research on the was rejected out of hand by the potential for civil work at the VSEL Lucas management who clearly saw shipyard was undertaken. it as a threat to their authority and to the company’s status as one of the leading UK military aerospace companies. The Labour government However, the work behind the Combine Plan also offered little support, stimulated further efforts under the banner of preferring to treat this as a matter of internal industrial relations socially-useful production, including a working between the company and the prototype of the road/rail bus and the setting workforce, rather than one of national policy and economic up of an academic centre, the Unit for the priorities.9 Development of Alternative Products (UDAP) in Coventry to follow through a range of design concepts.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 2 Chapter two The Barrow Shipyard and Oceans of Work
The main objective The Barrow arms conversion It was only during the 1960s and project emerged as a response to 1970s that the company began to was to draw up plans the Conservative government’s concentrate on both ballistic missile for diversification of decision in 1980 to replace Polaris and conventional nuclear with the Trident ballistic missile submarine manufacture, resulting the product base, submarine programme. in a decisive shift in the balance of ...but with the Construction of the four production from civil to military submarines was to be carried out at work. emphasis on civil the VSEL shipyard, in a contract alternatives to worth over £2 billion to the Therefore, the remit of the research company that was expected to was to identify promising ideas military work. maintain employment for the developed internally and new 12,000-strong workforce well into opportunities in marine the 1990s.12 technologies that could use the skills base and facilities of the A group of local trade unionists company for large-scale, marine from the yard and active in the engineering projects. The local Trades Council came together management were approached for as the Barrow Alternative support but made it clear that they Employment Committee (BAEC) in saw no value in the research, 1984. They were concerned about prevented site visits by the the growing dependency of the researcher, and refused to offer company on military work and technical analysis of product ideas. especially on one large contract that was vulnerable to cancellation BAEC’s ‘Oceans of Work’ was if there was a change of published in 1987. It identified a government.13 range of products, including civil engineering equipment and marine- The main objective was to draw up based renewable energy, with the plans for diversification of the focus on wave power, offshore wind product base (accepting that the power and tidal barriers. Some of shipyard and engineering works these ideas had emerged from the would continue with other military company’s own design work such contracting), but with the emphasis as the Constant Speed Generator on civil alternatives to military Drive (CSGD) and the Oscillating work. BAEC received initial funding Water Column (OWC) wave power from the Campaign for Nuclear machine, while others were based Disarmament (CND) to employ a on international comparisons of researcher, and an academic base emerging opportunities.15 was provided by the Department of Peace Studies at Bradford The CSGD was designed by VSEL as University.14 a response to escalating fuel costs in order to provide a more efficient VSEL (better known as the Vickers form of electrical power generation shipyard before privatisation of the for ships at sea. Through an company in 1986) had a long and innovative gearing system, ships’ proud tradition of commercial generators could be driven directly shipbuilding and engineering from the main engines, even with a during the last century, including varying speed, because the CSGD the construction of oil tankers and provided the means to maintain a passenger liners. constant output speed.
3 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 However, the design was not pursued by the company in the face of international competition, in particular from the German company, Renk.
The OWC was a pioneering design put forward by the company in the mid 1970s. Waves strike a column of water trapped in an inner chamber, open at the sea base, and the moving column acts as a piston that, as it rises and falls, forces air back and forward through a low pressure turbine housed in the column, in turn providing power. Again, the design was not pursued by the company’s management and a similar prototype was built by a Norwegian company, Kvaerner Brug AIS, that became operational in the HM Submarine Vampire was mid 1980s. The report did not dodge concerns built in Barrow and about internal barriers to completed in 1943 A strong emphasis in the report successful civil work at the was on international comparative shipyard. These centred on both the analysis of marine technologies and cost base for military production the role of central government R&D and a management culture that funding to support innovations that prioritised continued military had the potential to generate contracting. Ministry of Defence substantial new employment (MoD) specifications, especially for opportunities. Recognising this nuclear systems, included many positive relationship between layers of quality control and the government and industry, the integration of complex sub-systems report’s most ambitious proposal like sonar, steam generating plant was to set up a government-funded and communications that all had to the report’s most marine technology R&D centre in be inter-operational under extreme Barrow to co-ordinate a national ambitious proposal conditions of performance. Any programme and develop the civil, commercial work would have was to set up a expertise necessary to build a to be carried out within this cluster of new marine industries in government-funded framework of military-industrial offshore renewable energy and specialisms and a highly marine technology underwater exploration. bureaucratized military accounting R&D centre in and costing system. Barrow to co-ordinate a national programme and develop the expertise necessary to build a cluster of new marine industries in offshore renewable energy and underwater exploration. The Oriana at night in 1960 in the Barrow docks
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 4 The irony that VSEL had become an industrial extension of the MoD and was building a platform for cosmically destructive weapons, seemed to have escaped Dr. Leach in his peroration to market forces and against global social engineering. But other commentary was more reflective. Several reviews welcomed the general thrust of the report, that renewable energy and other marine-based systems offered significant opportunities, including MV Copenhagan was the last passenger ship built at potentially very large export Barrow-in-Furness in 1973 markets, and that the UK might fall further behind other countries The company’s senior management without government support for also had a strong cultural bias in innovation during this early phase favour of military work. For them, of development. But there was also the development of a specialism in skepticism that VSEL could play any nuclear submarine production had positive role, mainly because of the given the company a unique inherent military conservatism of strength as a prime contractor to the company’s management. the MoD. Civil work, although possibly welcome, simply could not Here, again, we meet the offer the same combination of fundamental dilemma facing arms market strength and profitability, conversion; that of a mismatch nor industrial and technological between the prospects for new civil challenge. In proposing a marine employment in associated areas technology centre in Barrow, and the reality of military ‘Oceans of Work’ attempted to production at specialist arms respond to some of these concerns manufacturers, hamstrung by by indicating how marine industrial industrial and cultural barriers that and technological resources could made even the more modest be re-configured, outside VSEL, and ambition of product diversification act as an incubator to a variety of on site, with both military and civil larger and smaller companies that work, look highly unlikely, if not were responsive to these new civil impossible. opportunities. For all practical purposes the When ‘Oceans of Work’ was research was completed by the end published, the then Chief Executive of 1987 and, despite efforts by the of VSEL, Dr Rodney Leach, members of BAEC to take the dismissed it out of hand. He called proposals forward, the company’s it ‘mischievous’ for suggesting that course had been firmly set on a company that prided itself on armaments work and its specialist meeting a technological challenge niche of nuclear submarines. equivalent to sending a man to the moon might consider such alternatives. For him, commercial shipbuilding in the UK was in terminal decline and new civil marine systems were riven with technological and market uncertainties. Any major expansion of marine-based renewables would require ‘social engineering on a global scale’. VSEL’s future was secured by the management’s focus on Trident, other nuclear submarine and armaments work for the MoD, and a renewed drive on arms exports.16
5 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Arms Conversion Research Chapter three and Policy Options
Introduction Not only did this result in a series of procurement scandals over There is now a substantial body of delays, inflated contract values, academic work on arms conversion, faulty equipment and outright although interest tends to wax and corruption, it also established a wane with improved prospects for form of peacetime, specialised disarmament, as at the end of the military-industrial firm. This Cold War, or the lack of them, as is peculiar creature’s expertise lay in tragically the case now. The main satisfying the byzantine focus has been on the United bureaucratic requirements of arms States, with its enormous arms procurement, rather than in the industry, but research has also been normal concerns for cost control carried out elsewhere, mainly in the and productivity that were essential UK and Europe.17 Major in civil markets. As a result, the contributions of the literature have very few attempts at converting been to explore the characteristics military facilities to civil production of a specialised arms industry in were little short of disastrous, the advanced Western economies, characterised by over-engineered and to put forward various policy and unreliable equipment that options for transferring resources broke down and faced costly from military to civil work. Seymour Melman, 1947 - 2004 redesign and repair problems.19 Influential in setting the original The only way out of this crisis, agenda was Seymour Melman, an according to Melman, was to put in American academic, whose research place an ambitious national through the 1960s onwards, framework for arms conversion explored the negative economic that required all the leading arms impact of military spending on the manufacturers to draw up detailed US economy.18 He argued that the conversion plans at each site and in US Department of Defense’s (DoD) consultation with their workforces. ...the US insatiable demand for ever-more His approach gained considerable sophisticated armaments had Department of support, including attempts at created a peculiar sort of anti- legislation through Congress. It was Defense’s (DoD) economy, a black hole characterised also influential in the UK, where a by cost-plus contracting and the insatiable demand similar framework was proposed by ‘gold-plating’ of military equipment. the Labour Party in the mid for ever-more American corporations that had 1980s.20 sophisticated built their post-war success through Clearly, this emphasis on site-based continued productivity armaments had conversion planning drew heavily improvements and reliability in the on the experience of reconversion created a peculiar manufacture of civil goods were at the end of the Second World War. now being sucked into this sort of anti-economy, So, having graphically alternative reality where they were demonstrated the serious barriers a black hole encouraged to do exactly the posed by military specialisms and opposite; to continuously add new characterised by the lack of success in the, capabilities beyond original admittedly limited, attempts at site- cost-plus contracting specifications and irrespective of based conversion, Melman insisted potential complications, yet safe in and the ‘gold-plating’ on maintaining a traditional the knowledge that all cost structure for arms conversion. of military increases would be passed onto the DoD. equipment.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 6 He believed that the process of Essentially, what these minor planning would, itself, stimulate programmes reflected was an new ideas and new ways of working overall reliance on market forces. If to liberate these facilities from the jobs were lost in the arms industry dead hand of military production. or at military bases, then it was assumed that normal mechanisms But a growing consensus was of supply and demand would emerging in the academic literature operate. In other words, the that, given the characteristics of economy was in a constant state of these specialist military-industrial ‘conversion’ with some industries sites, it was highly unlikely that declining and others offering new they could make the transition to opportunities. Previous experience civil work, even with substantial of structural unemployment in support from the state. Rather than staple industries like coal and steel waste resources in this way, the may have demonstrated that the focus of research became one of process could be an extremely assessing alternative approaches to painful one in particular localities, arms conversion against the criteria and that similar job losses and of maximizing the economic closures might well occur in the potential of disarmament through arms sector. But the government’s new industrial and employment role was restricted to small regional 21 opportunities. aid programmes in the attempt to attract new industries, allied to retraining packages for redundant Community Conversion workers, even though, in all likelihood, they would prove One alternative that claimed inadequate to deal with the scale of success was community conversion, the cutbacks. an approach that focused on the capacity to attract new employment into areas facing a decline in military work. The Office of Macro-Economic Conversion Economic Adjustment (OEA), part Other approaches called for a more of the US Department of Defense, ambitious agenda, especially when had the responsibility to assist the prospects for disarmament communities facing military base looked favourable and the balance closures during the 1960s and of government expenditure could 1970s. Small amounts of funding be fundamentally changed. Macro- were made available to support the economic conversion emerged as a re-use of administrative and strong theme in the early 1990s, accommodation buildings for when it became clear that the Cold various new activities including War was drawing to a rapid end and commercial business premises, the opportunity existed to release a educational campuses and civil substantial peace dividend. aviation. One study in the UK analysed how a In some cases, there was an overall reduction in military expenditure of increase in employment on site but 50% was achievable over the period these tended to be ones located in 1992 to 2000, but would have very or near large cities, where the different outcomes dependent on commercial attractions were clear. whether the government provided More remote and smaller bases compensatory expenditure or not. faced a bleak future. Similar small- In the first case where military scale programmes were developed spending was simply cut, overall in the UK and Europe at the end of demand in the economy declined, the Cold War. The most significant Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell was the EU’s Konver programme by 3.5% and unemployment during 1991-93 that allocated £15 increased by half-a-million. million to a number of eligible projects, including retraining of redundant workers and re-use of former military sites.22
7 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 In the second, where the cuts were Parallel with international balanced by a proportionate disarmament would be a increase in other forms of public programme of development to expenditure there was an extra 1.8% tackle the growing security growth in the economy and a challenges posed by poverty and reduction in unemployment by half- environmental breakdown: a-million. There would be problems Initiating active steps to halt the of restructuring at the local level arms race and reduce weapons is for a small number of military- a necessary pre-requisite for dependent areas but these would be coping with increasingly acute manageable within the context of a global problems – those of a growing economy and new deteriorating state of man’s opportunities for employment.23 environment and the need to Of course, such large reductions in find new energy sources and military spending and combat economic backwardness, compensatory investment did not hunger and disease. The pattern occur, with an overall cut in UK imposed by militarism – arms in military expenditure in real terms place of development – must be of only 14% between 1991 and replaced by the reverse order – Mikhail Gorbachev 1998.24 But Keynesian analysis of disarmament for development.25 this type reinforced a strong message from the body of conversion research, that a The dismantling of the Cold-War sustained period of disarmament military economy, therefore, was a can also provide real economic major opportunity to re-direct benefits, including increased scientific and technological aggregate demand and resources from military R&D, and to employment, assuming that the use government expenditures in government was willing to play a ways that met pressing social and pro-active role at the level of the economic priorities including macro-economy. energy supply, health, the environment and the rebuilding of civil infrastructure.26
Comprehensive Conversion Under the first Clinton By far the most ambitious set of administration the United States proposals, which could be did pursue some technological described as comprehensive policies that seemed to address conversion, went further than this these issues. For example, the form of macro-economic leading government nuclear compensation for reduced military research establishments at Los expenditure. Fundamentally, it Alamos, Lawrence Livermore and challenged Western governments to Sandia, as well as the Defense embark on a programme of Advanced Research Projects Agency sustained disarmament matched by (renamed ARPA and dropping Defense in recognition of the a new national and international Parallel with economic agenda for peaceful changing emphasis) were expected development. to develop partnerships with international industry in order to make a The most eloquent exponent of this productive contribution to the civil disarmament would approach was Michael Gorbachev economy, using their core be a programme of during the astonishing period of competencies in areas like disarmament initiated by the Soviet computer sciences and advanced development to tackle Union under his leadership. His materials.27 the growing security speech to the United Nations Assembly in 1988 encapsulated the challenges posed by sheer scale of these ambitions, poverty and including the abolition of nuclear weapons and other weapons of environmental mass destruction by the end of the breakdown... century; the removal of all foreign bases, and massive reductions in conventional forces to a form of territorial defence only.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 8 Figure One: Typology of Arms Conversion
Type Description Implications
Factory-Based Individual sites move completely Rests heavily on the reconversion Conversion from military to civil work experience at the end of World War Two but faces serious barriers in the modern context of specialised military-industrial firms
Diversification An increase in civil work without Normally this refers to restructuring at a abandoning military production company level rather than site level. It can mean acquisition which may reduce the overall dependency on military work or it may mean companies divest military interests but in both cases the capacity for armaments production is maintained
Technology Military research laboratories Small scale programmes within the context Transfer ‘spin-out’ technological of large, government-funded military R&D innovations that might have programmes and continued close applications in civil relationships between the research manufacturing laboratories and major arms manufacturers
Community Assistance to areas dependent Stresses the role of regional and local Conversion on arms manufacture or military assistance through attracting new industries bases facing redundancies and and through retraining. In practice, closure relatively small assistance programmes, although there is potential to expand the scale through various central government, regional and local economic agencies
Macro-economic Government compensates for No direct support to arms firms and Conversion major reductions in military significant redundancies in military expenditure through other forms employment but more than compensated by of civil investment. overall increases in demand and job creation in other civil sectors of the economy. It still leaves a substantial, specialised military-industrial base and the potential for future increases in military expenditure and production.
Comprehensive A national and international Calls for a total re-focusing of international Conversion needs programme linking security through disarmament to priortise disarmament to an irreversible civil programmes of R&D and production. shift from military to civil work Would require the dismantling of most of with the focus on sustainable the specialised military-industrial capacity. development, e.g. renewable A fundamental challenge to the Western energy security paradigm established by the US and its main allies after the Cold War.
9 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Much was made of the concept of Fundamental to this strategy was dual-use technologies, where the consolidation of the military innovations could be adapted to industrial base. Cuts in military both military and civil applications, R&D and procurement were carried particularly in the electronics out but this still left military sector. But the fundamental expenditure at the average for the structure and military focus of the whole of the Cold War period. So, laboratories was left intact, and the unlike the end of other major bulk of their partnership work conflicts, the US and UK continued to be with the giant arms governments made it clear to the corporations. A similar approach leading arms companies, that no has been taken in the UK with the deep, structural changes would be Defence Diversification Agency made. Rather, there would be a (DDA), whose main role is to short period of adjustment and the support limited forms of removal of excess capacity but this technology transfer from the would leave procurement and R&D military research establishments.28 budgets at what were still historically high levels by normal peacetime standards. And, just as Consolidation rather importantly, there was every expectation that military than Conversion expenditure would rise again in real Such ‘conversion’ then was simply a terms, that all the major land, sea form of disguised consolidation. and air systems would be The United States and its allies were purchased and that government compelled to acknowledge the support for arms exports would be radical nature of the Gorbachev maintained, if not intensified. agenda, and the growing public During this period, therefore, there support for disarmament. At the was a substantial loss of jobs and same time, they wanted to ensure rationalisation of capacity, with an that the industrial and estimated million arms industry technological base for advanced jobs lost in the United States and a weaponry and military supremacy further 500,000 in Europe.29 But was maintained, even though their the structure of specialist main adversary had, quite literally, manufacturers supported by the disappeared. Russia, the only government’s military research potential military successor to the establishments remained Soviet Union, was in a state of remarkably intact, hardly economic chaos where arms distinguishable in terms of expenditure had collapsed. capabilities and real term there was every Cuts in both nuclear and expenditure from the height of the expectation that conventional forces were agreed Cold War in the early 1960s when through the major disarmament President Eisenhower could warn of military expenditure treaties of this period resulting in the dangers of a military-industrial would rise again in some demobilisation of armed complex. forces and reduced expenditure. real terms, that all the This served two purposes. First, it major land, sea and satisfied domestic public demand that progress was being made on air systems would be disarmament. Second, it preserved purchased and that key capabilities, including the option for nuclear weapons and government support advanced conventional weapons for arms exports that gave the United States overwhelming superiority for global would be maintained, force projection. if not intensified.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 10 Conclusion What should have been a golden opportunity for comprehensive Arms conversion research has been conversion became a cynical important in clarifying the main exercise in the management of characteristics of a specialised arms expectations. Western leaders used industry and the range of policy the collapse of the Soviet Union as a options that could be applied to the means of consolidating military transition from military to civil supremacy. Perhaps most cynical economy. The main debate has was the attempt to portray the been on the relevance of a disarmament programmes as a sea- traditional ‘swords into plowshares’ change in international relations, model that was best served by the when the long-term strategy was particular conditions of the Second always to sustain, and if possible, World War but is generally enhance the capacity for global considered to be an anachronism in military reach against any potential this modern context. A variety of adversary, as planned before this approaches have been identified, shocking and completely from the more modest, community unprovoked outbreak of peace. conversion programmes to a radical comprehensive conversion Military expenditure was allowed to programme that calls for the decline by a limited amount that linkage of disarmament to an sustained the capacity for irreversible shift from military to indigenous military production civil production. while conversion consisted of some very small regional aid and The end of the Cold War is, technology transfer packages. therefore, the saddest of historical These were totally inadequate for paradoxes. How was it possible for the scale of the redundancies one of the most remarkable experienced, but as with the transformations in history, disarmament programme, gave the resulting in international illusion of good intent. The main disarmament and a European characteristics of this post Cold political reconstruction scarcely War consolidation were that imaginable only a few years earlier, military R&D continued to dominate to mutate into one of the most government research, and rapid resurgences of military power specialised arms industries in history? continued to benefit from multi- billion pound procurement programmes.
The first Gulf War and the interventions in the former Yugoslavia may have been used as The end of the Cold War is, legitimation for grossly inflated therefore, the saddest of historical arms budgets, followed, more recently by the threat from rogue paradoxes. How was it possible for states and international terrorism. one of the most remarkable But what they really signify is the essence of Western militarism, transformations in history, resulting in refined through the Cold War and international disarmament and a carried on into the new millennium - the power of the exaggerated European political reconstruction threat and the manipulation of fear scarcely imaginable only a few years and anxiety. Given the popular expectation of a major peace earlier, to mutate into one of the dividend, this strategy has been most rapid resurgences of remarkably successful, not just temporarily deflecting those hopes military power in history? but permanently de-railing them by making them look totally unrealistic in a world of spectres and demons.
11 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 The UK Military Industrial Base Chapter four and Arms Conversion
Introduction But the government continued with virtually all the major programmes In this chapter, the UK context for planned prior to the end of the arms conversion is brought up to Cold War, including the Eurofighter date by analysing the trends in aircraft, conventional nuclear military restructuring and submarines and attack helicopters, employment since the end of the albeit at reduced numbers. Also, the Cold War. Significant has been the government maintained its network consolidation around BAE Systems, of military R&D institutions and the acknowledged ‘national worked closely with the major champion’ of UK arms manufacturers on the development procurement, large-scale of the next generation of weapons redundancies, and rationalisation of for offensive operations. capacity. The future of the military industrial base is related to the Fundamentally, both the MoD’s recently published Defence Conservative government (and Industrial Strategy (DIS) that subsequently the Labour provides a longer-term perspective government from 1997) wanted to on government’s plans, as well as retain influence with the United the recent decision to replace the States as the sole remaining global Trident ballistic missile system. The military power. The significance of DIS is contrasted with alternative Options for Change, therefore, lies security policies around non- not in the minor reductions to force offensive defence and peacekeeping and equipment numbers but in the and how this would relate to a retention of equipment such as contemporary agenda for aircraft carriers, nuclear Vesta’s wind-turbine factory conversion. in Campbeltown, Scotland. submarines and long-range fighter September 2004 aircraft, seen as essential for the © Greenpeace / Kate Davison offensive capabilities necessary as a Options for Change contribution to US power projection. This remains the The UK’s major strategic response overriding objective of UK military to the end of the Cold War was the doctrine up to the present day and ‘Options for Change’ review, into the foreseeable future: published in 1993.30 Acknowledging that the collapse of The programme for the Joint the former Soviet Union and the Strike Fighter and the future Warsaw Pact had brought an end to carriers together make up the the Cold War and to the military principal components of the confrontation in central Europe, the proposed carrier task force. That review came to several main in turn is at the heart of the conclusions on the restructuring of Armed Forces expeditionary armed forces, with overall ambitions, and the MoD’s manpower down by 18% and a primary goal for large-scale similar reduction in military operations, of maximizing its expenditure. Most significant was influence in US-led operations.31 the sharp reduction in UK forces deployed in Germany, particularly tank regiments, that were no longer seen as necessary with the re- unification of Germany and the removal of Soviet forces.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 12 The response of the major arms Many of these giant corporations companies was to accelerate the have both civil and military processes of consolidation and capacities. However, even where internationalization that were production is in the same sector, already well underway in the 1980s the civil and military divisions as they looked for new operate as separate entities, and opportunities in global markets. As there is very little sharing of a result, there emerged some very resources given the very different large military corporations that demands and specifications of could be defined both as ‘national military compared to civil work. champions’ having gained monopoly power over domestic Below this level of giant military procurement, and as corporations there is a large international conglomerates with network of subcontractors who play extensive links, either by ownership an important role in the production or alliances, into other major chain, providing key subsystems, markets. like aircraft engines, sonar systems, etc. Many are themselves In the UK, both British Aerospace subsidiaries of the larger and GEC carried through aggressive companies but there are also major acquisition programmes during the independent companies like Rolls 1990s. BAE Systems (as it became Royce (aircraft engines and nuclear known) finally bought out GEC’s power plant). However, it becomes military divisions in 1999 for £6 increasingly difficult to track the billion, to become the dominant content and value of subcontractor force in UK procurement with work further down the supply effective monopoly power in fighter chain, and many companies may aircraft, submarines and well be unaware of the ultimate warships.32 Although a little destination of components. smaller than the American giants Lockheed, Boeing and Northrup, This industrial consolidation and BAE Systems has acquired several rationalisation accelerated the US military companies, including decline in both direct and indirect the most recent, United Defense, military-industry employment. for $4 billion, elevating the According to the MoD’s figures, company as the sixth largest US overall defence employment was Department of Defense (DoD) 510,000 in 1991/2 and declined to 36 contractor.33 BAE also pursues an 260,000 in 2003/4. Of these aggressive arms export policy, 170,000 jobs were dependent on including the long-running and domestic military equipment highly controversial Al Yamamha expenditure and 90,000 dependent contract, with Saudi Arabia. The on arms exports. In the context of According to the first sales occurred in September overall employment in the UK, then, 1985 and the most recent contract arms employment is very small. It MoD’s figures, for 72 Typhoon fighter aircraft was is concentrated in specialized overall defence signed in August 2006.34 It is now sectors of the UK manufacturing the world’s fourth-largest military base, particularly in aerospace, 37 employment was contractor.35 shipbuilding and electronics. 510,000 in 1991-02 A similar process has occurred Regional distribution of defence- and declined to elsewhere in Europe with the related employment appears to favour the South East and the South 260,000 in 2003-04. emergence of the Franco-German aerospace company EADS, West, though there are significant Of these 170,000 combining the French companies obstacles to accurate measurement.38 Historically, key jobs were dependent Aerospatiale and Matra with the German company DASA, and now sites were also developed that were on domestic military also incorporating CASA of Spain less vulnerable to air attack from mainland Europe with important equipment and Finmeccania of Italy. Another French-based company, THALES concentrations in the South West expenditure and (formerly Thomson CSF) took around Yeovil, (helicopter production), Bristol (aerospace) and 90,000 dependent on control of Plessey’s military electronics business and is now a the North West (fighter aircraft and arms exports. major contractor in the UK. submarines).
13 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Research facilities are also The Trident Network geographically concentrated in the The Government announced in South East with two major December 2006, through the organisations, the Defence Science publication of a White Paper, its and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) intention to order a new fleet of under government ownership and replacement submarines to the Qinetiq, the privatised element of existing Vanguard-class at the what was previously the Defence earliest opportunity. It also Evaluation and Research Agency announced a debate and vote in the (DERA). DSTL employs about 3,000 House of Commons in March 2007, personnel, while Qinetiq employs though it is still unclear what form 9,000.39 The other significant this vote will take. employer is the Atomic Weapons Research Establishment (AWRE) The main argument, even among based at Aldersmaston and those who support the UK’s ballistic Burghfield (see below) and run by a missile system, centres on whether private sector consortium there is a need to make an early employing 3,600 people. It is decision, or whether the existing estimated that 40% of all fleet’s life can be extended and the government R&D personnel are decision delayed. Radical employed by the MoD.40 alternatives involve withdrawing the existing submarines from patrol while taking a pro-active role in Defence Industrial Strategy nuclear disarmament and non- proliferation negotiations that What future then for the arms make replacement unnecessary.42 industry and employment in the UK? The MoD has recently There are close parallels to the published a substantial report, the previous decision to replace Defence Industrial Strategy, that Britain’s nuclear force, made by the sets out its approach to Conservative government in 1980. procurement and its relationship While the government was at pains with industry. The report’s main to deny that any final decision had purpose is to clarify what the MoD been made, much preparatory work considers to be the essential was underway to ensure that the industrial and technological UK had the industrial and capabilities that it wants to see technological capabilities for retained in the UK, including building and maintaining a new nuclear submarine and major generation of ballistic missile surface vessel construction, fighter submarines. aircraft and attack helicopters. It also trails an expectation of reduced demand for new platforms and greater emphasis on upgrades and through-life maintenance of equipment. Again, the overall commitment to supporting the US military strategy could not be clearer.41
In the light of these trends, further consolidation must be expected. BAE Systems has sold its stake in the Airbus consortium to fund further military acquisitions both in the UK and in the United States. But there is no guarantee that private sector companies, under pressure to maximise profits, will retain production work in the UK. There may well be moves to take this ‘offshore’ and in all likelihood, a continuation of the long-term A Trident submarine is escorted out to sea from Barow Photo: Bob Straughton downward trend in employment.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 14 A crucial consideration at that time Similar preparatory work has been was the US’ probable upgrade from underway to ensure facilities are the existing Trident C4 ballistic available for a new submarine- missile to the newer and larger based system. These include a £1 Trident II D5. Because of the UK’s billion additional investment total dependency on US missile programme at the AWRE, including technology, it was essential to plan laser equipment and a for larger submarines even though hydrodynamics facility to simulate no official statement had been nuclear warhead explosions, as well made: as new facilities at the Devonport Dockyard for the servicing of I think we have to say that as ballistic missile submarines at a shipbuilders even though we cost of £933 million.45 have not been asked the question by the Ministry of Defence we The Government argues that these simply must look to the are simply general modernisation possibility that we might be programmes required to manage called upon to build a submarine the existing stockpile of nuclear to take on board the most warheads or to support the fleet of advanced missile system which nuclear submarines. The pattern would be available at the time. fits that for the original Trident That is why in our thinking we programme: to argue that no final take a 12,000 ton boat and a decision has been made but to have 43 Trident II system. everything in place for the formal announcement. The fact that Dr Kinloch, from British Shipbuilders, felt compelled This demonstrates the utter to deny that the MoD had specified determination on the part of those the expected submarine size, even elite groups who have always held though the D5 programme was well the power over decisions on nuclear advanced, speaks volumes for the weapons to ensure that the UK will way that the government handled be in a position to construct a new the decision on Trident. generation of nuclear submarines, compatible with the US’ choice of As a House of Commons Defence submarine-launched ballistic Committee report said at the time: missiles, and to do so at the earliest opportunity consistent with the Parliament’s role in the decision inconvenience of a parliamentary to procure a successor system to debate. Polaris has been limited to endorsing a decision already taken. Decisions on defence, and on Britain’s strategic nuclear Trident Employment deterrent have historically been An enduring ritual of military taken by a small elite of very procurement is the ministerial senior Cabinet Ministers, Civil announcement of a new order, Servants, and Service Chiefs, and highlighting the thousands of jobs this present decision was no that will be generated. Local MPs exception…We urge, therefore then queue up to welcome the the present Government, and order for bringing much-needed future Governments to take work to their constituencies, Parliament, the public, industry despite the fact that military and the defence policy employment has already been institutions more into its decimated, that the trend continues 44 confidence in the future. downwards and that even multi- billion pound contracts only serve In December 2006 the Government to secure existing employment promised a formal debate in the rather than create new jobs. House of Commons and a vote in Trident, it would seem, will be no March 2007, but the fundamental exception. problems of secrecy and elite decision making remain familiar.
15 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Prior to the contracts for the first The issue of Britain’s nuclear generation Trident programme, posture is of secondary importance Decline of shipyard employment initial estimates for employment to its overall approach to security in Barrow, 1990 - 2006 put the figures as high as 20,000 and its relationship to the United direct and 25,000 indirect jobs. But States. A Non-Offensive Defence MoD reports during the 1980s on (NoD) policy is one option that calls the progress of Trident for a total re-alignment of UK construction consistently reduced military forces in order to carry out those figures until, by the mid two main tasks - territorial 1980s, they had declined to only protection of the UK mainland and 7,000 direct and 9,000 indirect international peacekeeping. The jobs.46 Contracts included the country would rely much more on construction of the submarines at coastal defences built on patrol Barrow, and the PWR 2 nuclear vessels, early warning aircraft and propulsion plant built by Rolls surface-to-air missiles. Any Royce at Derby. international role would be through a United Nations peacekeeping Although it is beyond the scope of mandate and as part of a broader this report and would require a peacekeeping force, ideally through fuller analysis of the Trident an EU peacekeeping corps with network and employment at each expertise in both military facility, a reasonable assumption stabilisation and civil would be that the major capital reconstruction.47 investment of recent years has resulted in reduced demand for Clearly, the implications for the labour and that employment restructuring of the armed forces generated now will be at much and military industries would be lower levels, possibly between 5,000 serious in that much out-of-area and 8,000 people nationwide for the equipment including aircraft period of construction. carriers and nuclear submarines would no longer be required. Other If Trident’s replacement is delayed long-range forces would be needed there would be strong pressure to for peacekeeping activities but at maintain this military-industrial much-reduced levels. The network, mainly through the opportunity would then exist to construction of extra, conventional rationalise the European arms nuclear submarines. A significantly industries with consequent savings wide constituency sees this as the of significant proportion, retaining ideal solution to the dilemma of some specialist capacity that could employment impacts. satisfy a non-offensive security policy and utilising the broader European civil technology and Non-Offensive Defence Policy manufacturing base for less specialist equipment. Here, we come to the crux of the problem facing the UK over the For example, a case could be made future of its military-industrial for a small fleet of conventional base. As long as government diesel-electric, coastal patrol, doctrine locks UK defence and submarines for territorial defence. industrial policy into serving The German company, HDW has Britain’s position as a significant experience of this work and could but dependent military ally of the be expected to carry out the United States, then the country will programme, while other excess continue with a specialised arms naval submarine capacity in the EU, industry constructing hugely especially the UK and French expensive military platforms. Even nuclear submarine facilities, is if Trident were not replaced, the closed down.48 expectation of the UK’s military- industrial network would be for a larger programme of conventional nuclear submarines as compensation, which could then be legitimized as a contribution to the protection of aircraft carrier groups.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 16 The cumulative UK savings on Given the extraordinary costs of equipment expenditure for a small entry and exit into military number of offensive military procurement, the industrial and platforms would be in the region of technological consequences have £3-4 billion a year by 2015 also been fairly predictable, with (representing around half the the emergence of BAE Systems, defence equipment procurement through rationalisation and budget), accepting cancellation consolidation, as the UK monopoly costs on some orders presently in producer for many of these the early stages of production. offensive platforms. These resources could be allocated to peacekeeping and Under a NoD policy there would be reconstruction, government a fundamental change of direction spending elsewhere, or reduced signalling the UK’s intention to overall government spend. They fulfill its international could represent significant responsibilities through a EU investment potential for alternative peacekeeping and civil civilian projects applying the reconstruction corps while at the appropriate skills freed up. same time leading a renewed effort at disarmament and arms Military industries would be faced conversion. Trident’s replacement with further cuts in capacity and and most of the major offensive employment could decline by systems like the new JSF fighter approximately 100,000 jobs over aircraft, aircraft carriers and the next five years, including 4,000 conventional nuclear submarines to 5,000 staff at the military would also be cancelled, along with research laboratories. Given the major reductions in military R&D. timescale, and the relatively small number of job losses, the The loss of 100,000 jobs in the adjustment would be manageable, arms industries over a five-year especially for those in relatively period would be a relatively minor prosperous regions where adjustment in the context of the alternative work is more likely to be national economy and where many available. The transfer of jobs are based in relatively investment and skills elsewhere in prosperous regions and demand, the economy could lead to greater particularly for skilled workers, is Under a NoD policy numbers of jobs.49 Only in a few high. There would be real short- there would be a local economies that rely heavily on term difficulties in those few ‘hot military work will there be serious spots’ of local dependency on fundamental change disruption and even here, assuming military procurement in less of direction signalling effective regeneration and prosperous regional economies, like retraining programmes, the Yeovil in Somerset, and Barrow in the UK’s intention to prospects in the medium to long Cumbria but support is available term are positive. for regeneration programmes in fulfill its international these areas. responsibilities Approximately £3-4 billion a year of through a EU Conclusion savings on military expenditure peacekeeping and The British state has been nothing would be available for investment in a comprehensive conversion civil reconstruction if not consistent in maintaining the industrial capacity for long-range, programme by 2015, depending on corps while at the offensive weapons, even though the level of other peacekeeping and reconstruction commitments, to same time leading a such capabilities are irrelevant to the defence of Britain and its armed invest in new areas of civil renewed effort at forces have been relegated to the technology and manufacturing, including marine-based renewable disarmament and role of a minor appendage to the US military. energy that offer the prospects of arms conversion. significant new employment.
17 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Alternative Technological Chapter five Trajectories and Arms Conversion
Introduction Early Years of Funding for Arms conversion research Renewable Energy in the UK presented a radical case for linking Serious interest in renewables can disarmament to national economic be traced back to the energy crisis renewal, utilising scarce of 1974, when the Organisation of government funding and R&D Petroleum Exporting Countries support for new priorities such as (OPEC) cartel raised oil prices and renewable energy and the government sought alternative environmental technologies. energy sources. In 1976, the Marine-based renewables, as Department of Energy published a advocated in the original ‘Oceans of review that identified wave power Work’, could have made a as the most attractive of the substantial contribution to the UK’s renewable options, possibly overall energy supply by the end of meeting half of all the UK’s energy the 1990s but, despite considerable needs through a major construction interest in early forms of wave and programme. Availability was high wind power, the government’s and would correspond with limited support was effectively patterns of demand: Off-shore turbines ended in the early 1980s in favour Photo: Greenpeace / Kate Davison of nuclear research. [Wave power] is worth pursuing because it offers the prize of a This goes to the heart of the substantial contribution to our dilemma facing arms conversion, energy supplies from a because it demonstrates how renewable, non-polluting, choices over technological options, indigenous resource.50 and what effectively become national technological and Funding and evaluation were industrial trajectories, are deeply carried out through a relatively contested terrain. Key institutions small government research body, and networks can have a decisive the Energy Technology Support Unit influence in setting the terms by (ETSU). From the mid 1970s to the which one set of technological early 1980s wave power received a choices is prioritised and others are total of £17 million of funding, the marginalised or closed off. lion’s share of overall renewables The legacy of those decisions is funding but still very small in with us today, not only in the lost comparison to nuclear power; in opportunity for a much larger 1980 alone the government spent 51 indigenous renewable energy £340 million on nuclear research. sector, with employment and Early working prototypes were export benefits, but also through evaluated but very demanding the continued support for criteria were set for continued disastrous nuclear projects like the support, based on constructing a THORP programme, the large-scale, offshore wave energy construction of another generation station capable of generating two of nuclear power stations and Gigawatts of power, similar in scale research on nuclear fusion. The to a conventional power station, issue, therefore, is not just one of and achieving cost competitiveness the redirection of funding but the with existing energy sources in the creation of a new set of region of 4.5 – 5.5 pence per kwh. institutional relationships for long- term, civil R&D and investment.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 18 Initial assessments by ETSU At a time of growing concerns suggested that the wave power about the safety and viability of prototypes generated electricity at nuclear power, the over-riding 20p per kwh, and it concluded that priority would seem to have been to the economic prospects for large- secure government support for a scale offshore wave energy were range of controversial nuclear poor compared with other programmes. If renewables gained, renewables. Government support not just a foothold, but a platform was abruptly cut back in 1982.52 from which to launch a credible case for large-scale investment, the Although land-based wind power future of nuclear energy funding was rated as having some potential might be jeopardized and this was and tidal power had longer-term simply unacceptable.55 prospects, the general perception left from this early period of The evaluation criteria by which research was that renewables were wave power and other renewables not cost effective and would never were rejected appears to confirm an contribute a large proportion of the institutional strategy for securing UK’s energy needs. This hung like a nuclear power against a potential shroud over UK-based renewable threat. Certainly, during the 1990s energy for the following ten to there was a growing critique of the fifteen years. framework for decision-making on energy research and the House of The role of ETSU came under Commons Science and Technology growing criticism, especially from Committee called for a re- the advocates of wave power. It was assessment of support for based at Harwell, the home of the renewables. A consensus of opinion Atomic Energy Authority (AEA) and emerged that wave power had been the heart of research on nuclear unfairly treated, that it could 53 power. While ostensibly satisfy a large proportion of independent, concerns were raised domestic demand and that a major that ETSU had a strong institutional industry could be developed with bias towards nuclear power. The export markets worth up to £500 use of crude cost estimates for billion: wave power, using data from first- generation prototypes that took no Given the UK’s abundant natural account of the potential for wave and tidal resources, it is innovation and efficiency extremely regrettable and improvements in subsequent surprising that the development development work, only heightened of wave and tidal energy suspicions. Certainly, there were no technologies has received so little 56 similar, stringent cost criteria for support from the Government. the major nuclear research programmes on fast breeder reactors and nuclear fusion at such Denmark and Wind Power early stages in their development.54 Other countries viewed the potential for renewables very There was some supportive analysis differently. Denmark had already from ETSU scientists and decided, through a national encouragement to prototype referendum, that nuclear power designers right up to the time that would play no part in its future funding was cut, suggesting that energy supply. Instead, the country there was a real debate within the would maximise the potential for organisation and some measure of renewables, especially wind power, internal conflict. However, key in which it had an abundance of people, with decision-making potential onshore and offshore powers over both nuclear and sites. Ambitious targets were set to renewable funding seemed to view have in place sufficient capacity to the two, not as complementary, but supply a quarter of the country’s as competitive technologies. energy needs over a twenty-year timescale.57 Off-shore turbines Photo: Greenpeace / Kate Davison
19 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Relatively small prototypes were In comparison, Denmark utilised a The Danish wind tested to see which designs classic model of civil technological achieved the best results for development. Relatively small scale, power industry is reliability, and incentives were first-generation prototypes were now the world’s made for further development built and lessons learnt, new including guaranteed connection to entrants added further innovations largest and 90% of the national grid. An important that improved on performance, the wind turbines feature of this early phase was bringing costs down and paving the community ownership, with local way for major investment in the manufactured in groups taking shares in new wind present generation of much larger Denmark are for farm development. An enthusiastic turbines for onshore and, group of practitioners worked increasingly, offshore wind farms. overseas customers. closely with designers to provide a Once a critical mass of production In 2003, the Danish constant feedback loop on has been reached, it stimulates a performance, technical problems whole series of what could be manufacturers had and suggestions for described as third generation a total world improvements.58 innovations with ripple effects beyond the original technology. market share of As a result of this pioneering work, refinements were made to the best For example, now that wind power approximately designs that allowed for larger has grown to become a mature and 38%... onshore and offshore wind power essential element of energy supply, generators, easily satisfying the a focus of technological original target for national energy development is on the variability of supply. The Danish wind power weather conditions and how to industry is now the world’s largest ensure a consistent source of and 90% of the wind turbines power. One possible solution manufactured in Denmark are for centres on storage, whereby a overseas customers. In 2003, the proportion of renewable energy Danish manufacturers had a total would, through the electrolyzing of world market share of water, produce hydrogen that can approximately 38%, generating a be transported by pipeline to power combined turnover of almost 3 stations in liquid (or gas) form to be billion Euros and providing utilised as a secondary supply, or employment to over 20,000 people, even, potentially, be used for from wind turbine factories to transport applications. Such maintenance and research.59 innovations could be applied to other forms of renewables, like Of course, there was no guarantee wave power, and even open up the that support would lead to prospect of a radical restructuring successful development. The US towards a system of local power Department of Energy programme distribution. This could provide for wind power was very generous dramatic savings on much of the but focused on a design by Boeing power lost in long-distance Aerospace for a massive turbine transmission through the national capable of generating 2.5 MW of grid.61 power. The prototype was plagued by technical difficulties centred on the stresses on its giant blades and was finally abandoned in 1985. The UK and THORP These sorts of problems, in Nuclear power continued to distort transposing complex systems development priorities in the UK in engineering from large aerospace this period, itself built on the and military platforms to civil state’s military requirement for engineering projects with very plutonium. The grand vision of the different specifications, were nuclear establishment was a identified in much of the arms ‘plutonium economy’, fuelling a conversion literature.60 new generation of fast breeder reactors that would supply the lion’s share of the UK’s energy needs, followed ultimately by the holy-grail itself, nuclear fusion with the tantalising prospect of limitless and pollution-free power.62
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 20 Since becoming Originally, nuclear power stations The Windscale Inquiry was had been constructed simply to undertaken in the mid 1970s to operational THORP provide plutonium for the UK’s consider these issues and to advise has experienced a nuclear weapons. Intermittently, the government on future options. they were connected into the Essentially, it accepted the series of technical national grid. As the civil nuclear economic rationale put forward by problems, the most power industry developed during BNFL that new supplies of the 1960s and 1970s, the UK looked plutonium would be required for a serious being in to take advantage of this experience UK fast breeder reactor programme May 2005 when a through the reprocessing of and that alternatives like dry plutonium, considered to have storage were technically untested substantial leakage major export potential. and unattractive.64
of radioactive spent Several other countries with civil Construction went ahead during the fuel led to closure nuclear programmes were building 1980s but the economic up stocks of material from which justification proved illusory. No fast for over a year. plutonium could be extracted, and breeder reactors were built in the this reprocessed plutonium was to UK because of severe technical be used in a future generation of difficulties and concerns over fast breeder reactors that were safety, and the fast breeder reactor expected to dominate nuclear programme was officially cancelled power generation by the end of the in 1993 on technical and cost century. Contracts to reprocess grounds.65 Similar problems were 1500 tonnes of oxide fuel had been being experienced abroad and negotiated with Japan and THORP’s foreign customers were Germany, amongst others, and the desperately trying to extricate Thermal Oxide Reprocessing Plant themselves from their original (THORP) was to be built at contracts for plutonium Windscale, in Cumbria, by British reprocessing. Nuclear Fuels Limited (BNFL) to carry out this programme at an As William Walker concluded in his estimated cost of £1.2 billion. This widely aclaimed study of THORP: would be an enormous industrial One of Britain’s largest facilities undertaking, expected to employ was being turned on to provide 7,000 people during construction plutonium that was no longer and over 3,000 when operational in needed or wanted, and whose the early 1990s.63 stockpiling was considered by many to endanger international Even at this early stage the THORP security.66 plant was proving controversial, with concerns that alternatives such as dry storage of plutonium were Yet, despite these circumstances not being given proper and a final parliamentary debate to consideration, that the demand for reconsider this decision in 1994 in plutonium was exaggerated and the light of these changing that its transportation involved circumstances, a final decision was made to make the plant Sunset at Sellafield, home of serious dangers, particularly of Thorpe theft or diversion into military uses. operational. By now the rationale Photo: © Greenpeace / Rezac had moved from reprocessing for fast breeders to adding plutonium into fuel for conventional reactors. BNFL constructed a Mixed Oxide Fuel (MOX) facility adjacent to THORP at a cost of £300 million, which was completed in 1996.67 Since becoming operational THORP has experienced a series of technical problems, the most serious being in May 2005 when a substantial leakage of radioactive spent fuel led to the plant’s closure for two years. The plant is now well behind its schedule for reprocessing.68
21 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Contemporary Policy Overall energy R&D support had, in fact, declined because the cuts in So where does this leave us in other nuclear research were not terms of energy policy? The Labour matched by increases for Government has recently shown renewables but the government has greater interest in supporting recently announced a new initiative renewable energy as part of its to support a broad range of energy overall commitment to reducing research with increased funding carbon emissions and securing through a public/private alternative sources of energy to oil partnership.72 and gas imports. The renewables obligation on energy suppliers has The nuclear option is now firmly set a target of 10% of total supply back on the agenda, with the by 2010, although the contribution government arguing that there is a has only grown to 5% at present gap in energy supply because of and there is concern the target will increased demand and the phasing not be met. Also, land-based wind out of older coal and nuclear power farms, the primary focus for stations. According to this view, development, have proved nuclear is essential in helping to fill contentious for their local impact. this gap, while also providing Larger, offshore wind farms are enhanced security of supply, and now coming on stream. The contributing to the UK’s carbon Government has just given the go- reduction targets. The projections ahead for the world’s largest off- are for up to ten nuclear power shore wind farm to be sited within stations providing up to 25% of the outer Thames Estuary, known total supplies by 2030.73 as the London Array.69 This is a remarkable turnaround, as Wave power is undeveloped, with it was only in 2003 that a previous small pilots on remoter island energy review had rejected the communities, including an nuclear option as commercially Oscillating Water Column (OWC) on unattractive because of serious A wave-power plant on the the Scottish island of Islay. uncertainties about total costs, Island of Pico in the Azures. decommissioning and insurance The power rating for this plant The most important demonstrator is about 600 kW. liabilities.74 Nor programme is the 750 kW Pelamis should a nuclear installation that the Edinburgh- build programme based company, Ocean Power be seen as a Delivery, is testing. The variable stopgap measure motion of the wave is used to pump to help tackle high-pressure fluid to hydraulic global warming motors, driving electrical while other generators that produce power, renewable which, in turn is fed by cable to the technologies shore and into the grid. The come on stream. company recently announced an The vision of a order with the Portuguese nuclear future is Government for three machines in still very much what is intended to become a 2.25 alive through a MW wave energy farm off the north combination of coast of Portugal, and it is also future testing a ‘wave hub’ scheme off St generations of Ives Bay in Cornwall.70 conventional The UK Government has also fission plants increased R&D support to wave and ultimately power as part of its overall support fusion power. By for renewables. But the majority of contrast, wave energy funding still remains with power is still nuclear fusion at £52 million in seen as marginal. 2003/04 compared to renewables as £23 million.71
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 22 A War on Global Warming Conclusion The scientific evidence is now very The UK effectively abandoned clear that the threat from global research in the early 1980s on an warming is greater and more indigenous offshore renewable pressing than first considered and energy industry that had the that the original targets for potential to satisfy much of our reductions in emissions of overall energy needs by the greenhouse gasses set out in beginning of this decade, as well as international agreements are totally create thousands of engineering inadequate. and construction jobs and a vibrant export market. Instead, it continued For example, Sir Martin Rees, with the THORP reprocessing plant, President of the Royal Society, one of the biggest industrial white expressed dismay at the G8 leaders’ elephants ever seen, and continues “worrisome lack of determination” research on nuclear fusion to accelerate development of new dependent upon an illusion of energy sources, given the expected unlimited power at some 50% rise in the world’s energy indeterminate time in the distant needs - and carbon dioxide future. emissions - in the next 25 years and called for a co-coordinated Is it over-simplistic to compare the programme of research on two sets of choices: one for alternative energy sources. He relatively small amounts of likened the scientific challenge to developmental funding in infant that posed by the scale of the but diverse and highly promising Apollo or Manhattan projects and technologies; the other for large warned that if action was not taken projects in a mature sector where in the next five to ten years it may the UK was seen as a leading not be possible to stabilize and player? At the level of scale, the reduce carbon emissions, and that answer is, of course, yes. But in the planet faced catastrophic terms of the processes of climate change.75 engagement and disengagement, these radically different In this context, the UK has the experiences tell us a great deal capacity to substantially increase about the role of the state and key its use of renewables as part of a institutional networks in framing coordinated national programme technological options. including energy conservation and alternative fuels for transport, THORP was the apotheosis of the which aims to reduce carbon UK’s energy policy. Large emissions by 60% by 2030 and investments had been made by the eliminate them in a post-carbon government in various forms of economy by 2050. Investment in nuclear power and much political offshore renewables and into new capital and credibility rested on the forms of hydrogen storage and maintenance of the nuclear option. The impacts of climate change are being felt across transmission networks would be The value of this comparison is in the world, particularly in the integral to that new framework. highlighting how technological poorest countries decision-making is bounded by institutional influences including senior politicians, representatives of the nuclear industry, key civil servants such as those in the Department of Energy and the Ministry of Defence, and supportive networks of trade unions and local MPs with vested interests in THORP’s continuation.
23 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 The Devonshire Dock Hall on The rigged terms of reference Germany, also, is intending to Barrow Island is the main UK allowed it to survive a public supply 10 GW through offshore submarine factory today inquiry, a growing body of wind by 2030 - 25% of its overall opposition during the 1980s as the supply.76 fast-breeder dream dissolved, and the increasingly desperate attempts There is no reason, given the scale of its main customers to extricate of potential capacity that the UK themselves from their contracts. No enjoys, why the Government could such institutional support existed not aim for at least 50% of energy for wave power. A core group of supply from offshore wave and decision makers saw renewable wind power by 2030. This would energy not as complementary to involve a multi-billion technological nuclear but as a potentially direct and industrial investment but it is competitor for limited sources of an entirely feasible one in the R&D funding and, therefore, set the context of an arms conversion evaluation criteria in such a way as programme, where funds were to guarantee failure. made directly available from the savings in military expenditure over Denmark’s alternative technological the next twenty years. The route demonstrates the vital industrial and employment benefits importance of political leadership would also be significant both from in setting clear priorities. By the domestic programme and rejecting nuclear power and potential exports and would more There is no emphasising the role of wind than compensate for the loss of power, the country was set on a employment in the arms industries. reason, given the train of development that resulted scale of potential in a vibrant new industry, satisfying In the context of support for other the domestic market and becoming renewables such as roof-based solar capacity that the the leading international exporter. photovoltaics and energy efficiency UK enjoys, why The use of relatively simple programmes for housing, the need prototypes and a feedback loop of for nuclear power and fusion the Government testing, evaluation and innovation research would be eliminated, while could not aim for led to constant improvements, and the UK could work towards the new larger turbines for offshore power. target of eliminating carbon 50% of energy All this within 10-15 years of the emissions by 2050. This would be a supply from original government support. Now significant contribution that the UK Denmark generates 20% of its could make to international efforts offshore wave electricity from wind turbines and at climate control. and wind power plans to increase this to 40% by 2030. by 2030.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 24 Chapter six Barrow-in-Furness and the Closure of the Shipyard
Introduction Employment Decline — Barrow-in-Furness, despite large- 1990-2006 scale redundancies at the shipyard, When Trident was in its peak of still represents one of the most production in the late 1980s and military-dependent local economies early 1990s, the total workforce in the UK. Attempts at attracting numbered over 14,000. These new industries into the area have exceptionally high levels could not met with limited success, levels of be maintained, but the combination social and economic deprivation of capital investment in the new remain high and a local consensus construction hall, reduced orders exists that the prosperity of the for nuclear submarines after the town and the district rests on ‘Options for Change’ review, and securing future nuclear submarine the failure of the company to win Tenements on Barrow island orders – its ‘specialist niche’. any significant export orders for Photo: Bob Straughton naval vessels led to a steep decline, From a wider with employment down to 6,000 by perspective, the the mid 1990s.77 cancellation of all nuclear submarine During this time VSEL saw two production would changes of ownership, from the be a welcome local management consortium that signal that the UK had controlled the company since was fundamentally privatisation in 1986, to GEC which reforming its took over the company in 1995 and security policy, finally to British Aerospace, now while saving BAE Systems in 2000. These billions of pounds changes reflect the broader on useless consolidation of the UK military weapons. industrial base and BAE’s effective Inevitably, this monopoly power. would lead to the closure of the yard The initial GEC bid in 1994 was with the loss of referred to the Monopolies and several thousand Mergers Commission (MMC) jobs and a because of concerns that the significant local company’s ownership of the Yarrow economic impact. shipyard in Glasgow, combined The question then with the Barrow shipyard, would is a simple one, create a monopoly in naval does this act as a shipbuilding and undermine the catalyst for change MoD’s competition policy. GEC was to a normal, actually bidding against VSEL for a peacetime local nuclear submarine contract, but economy, argued that it could maintain accepting that competition after acquisition by there will be a outsourcing much of the work. The period of painful MoD was satisfied with this adjustment, or will arrangement, even if competition the area try to might have led to the closure of the cling onto the Barrow yard.78 vestiges of former glory?
25 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 British Aerospace also opposed the takeover of VSEL by GEC on competition grounds. Those reservations of course disappeared by the time it took over GEC in 2000 and secured its own monopoly position in UK military procurement across many sectors. The company made it clear that the yard would be the main focus for A view of Piel Castle and Roa The Local Economic Context Island at the entrance to the its nuclear submarine design and Walney Channel, Barrow build programmes, coupled to What significance does the yard Photo: Bob Straughton larger surface vessel construction retain for the local economy, given should MoD orders provide that employment has declined by sufficient workload. over 70% since the 1980s? At that time a massive 40% of male But the process of job losses employment in the district was continued. The end of the Trident dependent on the yard but it is now build programme, compounded by less than 20% with a severe technical problems and proportionately smaller multiplier delays on the new generation of effect in terms of secondary Astute class nuclear submarines led employment generated by local to a further hemorrhaging of jobs expenditure.80 However, though the over the last four years with dependency of the local economy employment now at 3,200, of which on the shipyard has reduced, it still 600 are design staff. The original represents by far the most contract for the first three important employer in the Barrow submarines has increased from district, with relatively high wages £2.5 billion to £3.5 billion and the in a generally low-wage local Government has delayed any economy, and contributes an decision on the next batch of up to estimated £70 million to local five while negotiations continue demand. with BAE on controlling costs.79 This dependency has long been There are serious concerns that recognised as a weakness, with without firm contracts for at least considerable efforts made by the another three Astute Class local authority and Furness submarines and, longer term, the Enterprise, the district’s economic follow-on Trident ballistic missile development agency, to attract new submarines, there may be further industries and employment. Barrow cutbacks in employment. But even has assisted-area status that assuming a large order book for provides grant funding for business nuclear submarines, and some work start-ups and the development of on aircraft carrier sections and existing businesses, and there has other naval support ships, there is also been major investment to no expectation that there will be reclaim land for new industrial major additions to employment at estates and business incubators. the yard. However, the record is patchy, especially in attracting larger employers, and new jobs have tended to be on the low end of the pay scale in service sector work such as call centres.81
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 26 What is most striking, despite the This is hardly reassuring for presence of the shipyard, is how the districts like Barrow that lack the district has consistently suffered geographical proximity to Liverpool from levels of deprivation that are and Manchester.84 some of the highest in the country. National comparison based on the government’s Deprivation Indices Keep Our Future Afloat that incorporate statistical information including (KOFAC) or Getting the unemployment, income, housing Shipyard off Our Backs and education ranked Barrow as the (GOSUB) 29th most deprived local authority out of 354 in England. Of the 13 In this context, it is not surprising wards in Barrow borough, six, that local leaders in Barrow, across located mainly around the shipyard, the political spectrum, see the are amongst the most deprived 10% continuation of nuclear submarine in the country.82 design and construction as essential to the future of the The decline in employment at the district. A lobby group called ‘Keep yard, therefore, serves to highlight Our Future Afloat Campaign’ fundamental and long-standing KOFAC has been set up, mainly weaknesses in the local economy. through the trade unions but Not only has unemployment supported by the local authority remained higher than the national and Furness Enterprise, among average, there is general others. Its remit is to press the acknowledgment that many people, government for assurances over particularly older men who future nuclear submarine previously worked at the yard, have programmes, and to make the case registered for incapacity benefit but for the yard to take a major role in would otherwise have been the construction of the two new registered unemployed. Taken aircraft carriers and other naval together, the overall total indicates support vessels.85 a very high level of unemployment and inactivity at up to 14% of the Various arguments are raised about 39,000 workforce in the district.83 keeping naval manufacturing skills and design expertise in the UK, Most commentators ascribe these while providing a range of underlying problems to Barrow’s apprenticeships for young workers. relative isolation and difficult But the most potent argument The decline in transport/communication links – remains the capacity of the yard to employment at the ‘the longest cul-de-sac in Britain’ – satisfy MoD requirements for which is said to discourage nuclear submarines. In support of yard, therefore, potential investors. The North West this, the Rand Corporation, a high- serves to highlight Regional Development Agency is profile American think-tank on responsible for coordinating much international security issues, fundamental and of the regeneration funding but produced a very detailed analysis of long-standing provides rather confusing messages future nuclear submarine about the potential of the district. requirements.86 weaknesses in the On the one hand, it has played a local economy... central role in generating financial By any standards, this is a most and institutional support that have remarkable document, because in Taken together, the led to some large programmes, arguing the case that the MoD is overall total including the reclamation of best served by providing a steady dockside land and other brownfield ordering pattern that sustains indicates a very sites for, potentially, large-scale production and design capacity in high level of commercial and housing Barrow, the report maps out an development. On the other, it bases ‘ideal’ procurement schedule that unemployment / much of the broader regional will guarantee the yard design and inactivity at up to strategy on ‘city-regions’, where the production work over a thirty year larger conurbations like Manchester timescale on no less than three 14% of the 39,000 are seen to provide the critical mass generations of nuclear submarines: working population of service and manufacturing Astute, Trident and the Maritime industries that stimulate demand Underwater Future Capability 87 in the district. for employment in adjoining areas. (MUFC).
27 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 Not content with a form of planning that would be the envy of the Soviet Union’s Politburo, this bastion of American free-enterprise also recommends that the existing Trident fleet be run for a period of 30-35 years (five to ten years longer than originally envisaged) and its replacement be delayed. In that way, a further five Astute-class nuclear submarines will take up the base programme from 2010-2015, allowing a smooth transition to Trident and avoiding a bottleneck of work on both Astute and Trident in the latter half of the next decade. Trident would then be the base programme into the 2020s with MUFC set to follow in the late 2020s and early 2030s.
The local economic development agencies are also active in providing direct funding to BAE to support The view of Barrow, from the the yard’s future naval work. A Although this form of state village of Leece (about 2 miles Regional Selective Assistance (RSA) away) shows only the assistance to private sector grant of £250,000 was made to BAE submarine-building hall and companies is not unusual, the fact the Victorian Town Hall Clock to support a £2.5 million remains that BAE with £8 billion Tower investment in submarine assembly Photo: Bob Straughton sales and an operating profit of equipment in 2004, along with a £653 million in 2006 is benefiting training grant of £435,000 to from scarce forms of regeneration upgrade design and manufacturing funding that might be used for skills. Funding has also been made other more productive purposes, available by the North West since its only objective at present Regional Development Agency to can be to secure existing jobs maintain the Buccleuch Dock, which rather than create new ones. This is presently not in use, but has the The key issue then speaks volumes for the perceived facilities for large-scale surface dependency of Barrow on the yard is not how to secure vessel construction, in anticipation and the leverage that BAE can bring of future work on sections of future nuclear to bear through the possibility of aircraft carriers that a BAE diverting work elsewhere or submarine work, consortium is due to construct. The through the threat of further MoD, itself, has also recently but on the contrary, redundancies. announced a £40 million funding to construct an programme to maintain essential The simple fact is that the limited alternative nuclear design and production success at attracting new industries skills, as part of its overall Defence under the present pattern of economic approach Industrial Strategy for indigenous regeneration funding, coupled to in which the yard capabilities. A proportion of this the dependency on BAE, is leaving will be allocated to BAE for workers fundamental weaknesses of the has been closed 88 in Barrow. local economy unresolved, as down, and, after a evidenced by the high levels of As things stand, therefore, the main deprivation. The key issue then is period of thrust of local economic policy, and not how to secure future nuclear state funding through the DTI, the adjustment, the submarine work, but on the RDA and the MoD, is to focus on contrary, to construct an alternative district can enjoy a the future of the yard. economic approach in which the new form of yard has been closed down, and, after a period of adjustment, the successful and district can enjoy a new form of balanced economic successful and balanced economic development. development.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 28 An interesting approach is provided Conclusion in a study sponsored by Furness Earlier this year an offshore wind Enterprise that looked at levels of farm, consisting of 30 turbines deprivation in the district and generating 90 MW of electricity and related this to the national policy of located close to Barrow’s Walney relocating civil service posts away Island, began providing power to from London and the South East. the national grid. This was a The authors argued that Barrow, as partnership between Centrica an area of serious deprivation, Energy and Dong, the Danish state should be considered a high- electricity company that was priority for relocation to provide responsible for the construction of new employment opportunities. the turbines. As far as the Barrow Unfortunately, the present dispersal economy was concerned, because carried out by central government the prime contractor was Danish departments shows very little the only benefit was a handful of correlation to aiding deprived areas, jobs in the contract for ongoing with many functions being maintenance. If anything could relocated to parts of the North that symbolise the yawning chasm are relatively affluent.89 between alternative futures for the The level of employment from civil district it is the wind farm as a service relocation would not, in signpost to the new civil economy itself, compensate for the loss of and the submarine construction jobs in the yard, either numerically hall representing a dying military or in terms of a skills match for culture. manufacturing workers. But the The closure of the Barrow shipyard research illustrates how an may be considered unthinkable by alternative strategy that builds new many people in the local area but networks between central that should not distract us from government, the local authority, the larger policy issues. Cancelling private sector and the local nuclear submarine production and regeneration agencies can be closing down specialist independent of the shipyard. In this manufacturing capacity that has no case, the focus would be on the other utility would save the UK £50 large number of unemployed and billion pounds in procurement under-employed people in the costs alone over the next 30 years district who are presently (estimating the total costs on three marginalised but who could benefit classes of submarine) and release from new forms of service sector resources for a national conversion work, particularly if regeneration programme. Employment for a funds were made available for long- relatively small number of people in If anything could term training programmes. Barrow has to be weighed against symbolise the This would call for a new set of those benefits. priorities. Without the shipyard’s yawning chasm The MoD itself has been prepared presence there could be much between alternative to countenance the possibility of greater sense of urgency to closure, as long as nuclear translate these ideas for new futures for the submarine design and production employment from theory into district it is the capacity remained somewhere in practice. Certainly, if central the UK. This was further illustrated government saw relocation as a wind farm as a by its decision to withdraw the viable option to an area normally signpost of the new contract for servicing nuclear considered to be one of economic submarines from the Rosyth isolation, then other forms of civil economy and Dockyard in Scotland and award it investment, particularly with the submarine to the Devonport Dockyard in government grants available, are Plymouth, in the expectation of more likely to gain support. construction hall significant savings, and despite representing a intense opposition from Scottish MPs and trade unions over the loss dying military of several thousand jobs in the Fife culture. region.
29 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 There will, inevitably, be a massive lobbying exercise in Barrow to preserve military contracting and employment and it would be easy to buckle under the pressure. Nothing could be more counter- productive and the government should show as equal determination to follow through a new security policy as the MoD has done in pursuing its priorities in the past.
Clarity and determination over policy might also help overcome the local psychological barrier of dealing with the closure of the yard and help to refocus attention on the underlying problems of the area, namely its relative economic isolation, its consistent pattern of deprivation and low wages, and its low priority in the context of regional economic policy. The fact that a large proportion of the state funding available for regeneration has gone to preserve employment, training and facilities at the yard is symptomatic of these limited horizons, since the yard has seen consistent decline in its workforce that is now at an historically low level.
A task force similar to those brought together for other major redundancy exercises is needed, incorporating all the local interest groups, economic agencies, and the RDA, along with central government departments, led by the DTI and responsible for maximizing the benefits from An aerial view of Barrow-in- Although the immediate period various sources of regeneration Furness island showing the following on from closure would, large docks (the dark areas) funding. Instead of KOFAC, it could inevitably, result in a serious be called GOSUB (Getting the economic downturn, the task force Shipyard off our Backs) to signal could ensure a rapid re-orientation that, far from being a lament for a of economic policy to these new dead industry, closure could be a priorities and have sufficient catalyst for a new, and stronger resources from local, regional and economy. This would include new central government to carry service sector and manufacturing through a comprehensive employment, tourism, the programme. After a five year period relocation of central government of adjustment, it would be functions, and commercial and reasonable to expect a growing level housing development on reclaimed of overall employment and new dockyard land. The release of opportunities, particularly for a skilled manufacturing workers and range of people in the district who, designers from the yard might also historically, have been overlooked stimulate new offshore energy work in the concentration on nuclear given this supportive environment. submarine production.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 30 If conversion is defined as public Here, the visionary example of the Conclusion policy to irreversibly redirect Lucas Plan, around the concept of economic effort currently focused socially-useful production, should upon military production as a be acknowledged, because it result of previous government anticipated the immense scale of military investment, then the last the challenges facing the successful example in the UK was at international community in areas the end of the Second World War. like energy and transport policy, Since 1990 we have witnessed the and identified the capacity of the consolidation of the arms state to redirect resources from industries, the rationalisation of military to civil programmes given capacity, the loss of hundreds of the political will to do so. thousands of defence jobs and the closure of factories. We have also Climate change is widely recognised seen the re-use of military bases, as an emergency far greater than the retraining of redundant any other we have faced. This is the workers, the transfer of real war and it is one we are losing. technologies from military research Support is growing for an establishments. All this occurred in emergency programme of energy spite of, rather than because of, research on a scale not seen since government policy. the Manhattan project to rapidly construct a post-carbon economy, Throughout the post-war period, with the objective of zero emissions the British state has done through renewable energy, energy everything within its power to efficiency programmes and the maintain a military-industrial base recycling of materials. But it is for the research, development and difficult, if not impossible, to see production of high technology how sufficient resources will be weapons, spending hundreds of made available unless the major billions of pounds in the process. industrial powers co-ordinate a Nothing has been allowed to deflect programme of arms conversion and from that policy, not even the end socially-useful production on an of the Cold War - the best international scale. opportunity in fifty years to set a new framework for peace and Under a new drive for general and international development. comprehensive disarmament there needs to be a phased programme, The Gorbachev disarmament beginning with the elimination of agenda provided a key role for arms nuclear weapons and all other conversion in ending the scourge of weapons of mass destruction, modern war, by linking followed by the closure of foreign disarmament in the present, to the military bases and the removal of dismantling of the capacity to all long-range offensive weapons. A growing body of construct weapons in the future; Countries would be expected to scientific opinion this was based upon the recognition abide by a strict UN Charter that that the build up of armaments allowed only limited, non-offensive refers to global itself contributes to international forces for territorial defence and a warming as an tension. Billions of pounds released contribution to international in the form of a peace dividend peacekeeping. In the UK’s case this emergency far could have been available for a would best be achieved through a greater than any comprehensive conversion EU peacekeeping corps that had the programme that put, at its highest capacity both for military other we have faced. priority, civil R&D and production stabilisation and post-conflict This is the real war for sustainable development in reconstruction. which renewable energy played a and it is the one we key role. are losing.
31 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 A large proportion of arms manufacturing capacity would be closed down because it is characterised by what can be described as ‘redundant complexity’ – none more so than the Barrow shipyard. It has no other purpose than to construct specialised military equipment and its facilities cannot be converted to civil use – the traditional model of ‘swords into plowshares’ is no longer applicable. Similarly, the military research establishments should be contracted during the phased programme of disarmament and staff relocated to existing or newly established civil R&D facilities as demand for skilled technical and scientific staff would be high. The UK could set up a regional research structure, as is the case with the German Fraunhofer research centres, using Walney Barrow off-shore windfarm the opportunity to end the heavy Photo: Bob Straughton bias of military research funding to Even in Barrow, the level of military the South East and stimulate a more employment has already declined balanced approach through the substantially from 14,000 to 3,000 Regional Development Agencies. in the past 20 years. The real challenge is to overcome the Over a ten year period the overall psychological barrier and refocus resources available for a regeneration funding so that it comprehensive conversion ceases to be a prop for a dying programme would grow by £3-4 industry but is used to support the billion a year for the UK alone, diversification of the local providing funds for new civil R&D economy. Lessons could be learnt and manufacturing programmes. from task forces set up elsewhere These would generate far more to deal with industrial closures and employment opportunities than large-scale job losses, in many those lost by the rationalisation of cases, much larger than those to be the military-industrial base. carried out in Barrow.
A small number of military- Some may argue that this is a dependent local economies like betrayal of the original campaign to Barrow-in-Furness face particular provide alternative work at VSEL. difficulties when arms production But the real lesson to emerge from is ended. Unemployment can be the ‘Oceans of Work’ study is that expected to rise in the short term, the focus of conversion should not in areas already experiencing high be on military-industrial sites but levels of deprivation and where on the institutional relationships efforts to attract new industries that encourage the successful have met with limited success. But development of new civil this sort of dependency is rare and technologies and industries. In the should serve to remind people in case of wave power, identified as a the district of a lesson painfully major option for marine learnt by others, that a specialist engineering, it was precisely the niche can become an economic lack of institutional support at noose when circumstances change. central government level and the opposition of a powerful nuclear establishment that led to its demise, and with it the opportunity for new manufacturing work and employment.
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 32 The set of proposals Comprehensive conversion, then, And rather than look to utilising looks to match resources to civil the £25 billion cost of Trident for outlined here, be they priorities for programmes that an arms conversion programme, the disarmament or contribute to a new security agenda main alternative put forward for around escalating resources for the any loss of ballistic missile economic adjustment research and production of submarine work is to build even programmes, offers renewable energy. There is no more conventional nuclear reason why the UK, like Denmark, submarines. In other words, they no insurmountable could not utilise its huge reservoir are in a hole, and still digging. difficulties and can be of renewable energies to satisfy the bulk of its energy needs, while Without a new and invigorated placed within the terminating plans for nuclear power agenda for disarmament there is no mainstream of United and ending research on the illusion doubt that the trends of increased of nuclear fusion. military spending and the Nations proposals for proliferation of both nuclear and A multi-billion pound construction conventional weapons will disarmament and programme for offshore wind and continue. And like the grim period models for wave power, to provide 50% of total of militarism prior to the First UK energy needs by 2030, would World War, a cycle of action and sustainable economic require a major investment in reaction could lead to increasing development. design and manufacturing capacity international tension. The United on a par with that generated for the States, with its vast military North Sea oil industry in the 1970s. infrastructure and ideology, offers A research priority would also be only an Orwellian dystopia of on secondary storage capacity and permanent war preparation. Other new distribution networks that states, including regional powers maintain constant energy supplies. like China, are realistic enough to know that the full range of Of course, the level of investment superpower capability may be required from government does not beyond them, but through a appear likely at present. But a combination of indigenous distinction needs to be drawn production, arms imports and between the improbable and the licensed production they can amass unfeasible. The set of proposals formidable armouries through outlined here, be they disarmament which to gain some sort of leverage, or economic adjustment even against the United States. programmes, offers no insurmountable difficulties and can But the inevitable outcome will be be placed within the mainstream of regional arms races and the break United Nations proposals for down of international security. The disarmament and models for United Nations was created sustainable economic development. essentially to prevent precisely this, through a combination of Instead, policy is driven by disarmament and ever-stronger doctrine, and the narrowness of the international institutions with debate is reflected in the options sufficient authority to resolve being put forward for the Trident disputes. It is doubtful that the UN replacement programme. can survive if existing agreements Cancellation, as a contribution to like the Non-Proliferation Treaty international disarmament, is continue to be undermined. simply not on the agenda as far as the government is concerned. The The UK can make a difference most ‘realistic’ proposal on offer is through disarmament and through to extend the life of the existing an arms conversion programme ballistic fleet in the hope of that addresses a broader security delaying a final decision. framework on peacekeeping, climate change and sustainable development. Or it can continue on its present course as a minor appendage to the US military. A small town in Cumbria may well A church in the shadow of a crane on Barrow Island symbolise those future paths to Photo: Bob Straughton peace or to war.
33 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 10 Wainwright and Elliott, op.cit., pp. 226-230. 24 World Armaments and Disarmament Sipri Endnotes 11 For a review of UK conversion projects in Yearbook 1999, p. 295 (Stockholm this period see Paul Quigley and Steve International Peace Research Institute, Schofield, Alternative Uses, Better Futures : 1999). A Compendium of Work by the Bradford 25 Project on Demilitarisation, The Triumph Arms Conversion Group (Dept of Peace of Unilateralism - The Failure of Western Studies, 1994) Militarism (Prodem, 1993), p. 4. See 12 See House of Commons Defence http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/e Committee, Strategic Nuclear Weapons pisodes/23/documents/gorbachev/ for a Policy (HC 36, 1980/81) for a review of the copy of the speech. decision to replace Polaris. 26 Ann Markusen and Joel Yudken, 13 The main opposition Labour Party had an Dismantling the Cold War Economy (Basic 1 The Future of the United Kingdom’s official policy to cancel Trident at that time. Books, 1992) which called for a national Nuclear Deterrent: Defence White Paper economic development strategy at the end 2006 (Cm 6994), published 4 December 14 See Steven Schofield, Employment and of the Cold War, based on popular planning 2006. Available online at: Security - Alternatives to Trident, An Interim for R&D in environment, health, and http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/AC00D Report (Peace Research Reports No. 10, community regeneration. D79-76D6-4FE3-91A1- Bradford University School of Peace Studies, 1986) for background information 27 Office of Technology Assessment, Defense 6A56B03C092F/0/DefenceWhitePaper2006_ Technology - Redirecting Defense R&D Cm6994.pdf on BAEC and on early research into civil alternatives. (OTA-ITE-552, 1993). 2 The Future of the UK’s Strategic Nuclear 28 http://www.dda.gov.uk/. Deterrent: the Manufacturing and Skills 15 Barrow Alternative Employment Base, House of Commons Defence Committee, Oceans of Work - The Case for 29 Project on Demilitarisation, Western Committee Fourth Report, 19 December Non-Military Research, Development and Hypocrisy on Arms Conversion, pp.12-13 2006. Available online at Production at the VSEL Shipyard, Barrow (Prodem, 1993) http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ (BAEC, 1987). 30 Ministry of Defence, Defending Our Future: cm200607/cmselect/cmdfence/59/5902.ht 16 Steven Schofield, VSEL Barrow and Arms Statement on the Defence Estimates, (Cmnd m Conversion, (PhD Thesis, Bradford 2270, House of Commons, 1993). 3 William Walker, Nuclear Entrapment - University, 1990) and Maggie Mort, Building 31 House of Commons Defence Committee, Thorp and the Politics of Commitment, p. the Trident Network: A Study of the Future Capabilities, p. 44 (HC 45, Session 132 (Institute for Public Policy Research, Enrollment of People, Knowledge and 2004/05). There have been other defence IPPR, 2000). Machines (MIT Press, 2002) for further reviews since Options for Change with information on BAEC and on the responses greater emphasis on the issue of terrorism 4 I was employed by BAEC as the researcher to the publication of Oceans of Work. for the project from 1985-1987 - see and homeland security but the Chapter Two. 17 Arms conversion research can be placed in fundamentals of UK policy in its the broader context of the literature on the subservient relationship to the US remain 5 Isiah 2:4, “…and they shall beat their Cold War arms race, the economics of consistent. swords into plowshares and their spears military spending and the United Nations 32 See Steven Schofield, The UK and Non- into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up proposals for disarmament and sword against nation, neither shall they Offensive Defence (Security Studies Group, development For an overview see Peter 2002). learn war any more.” Southwood, op.cit. 33 Paul Dunne and Eamon Surry, ‘Arms 6 Economist Intelligence Unit, The Economic 18 Seymour Melman, The Peace Race (Victor Effects of Disarmament (EIU, 1963). Workers Production’ SIPRI Yearbook 2006 (OUP, Gollanz, 1962), Pentagon Capitalism, The 2006) involved in arms production and members Political Economy of War (McGraw-Hill, of the armed forces who had accounted for 1970), Profits without Production (Alfred 34 Stephanie G. Neuman, ‘Defense Industries 42% of the working population, accounted Knopf, 1983). The concept of cost- and Global Dependency’, Orbis, Vol 50, No. for 10% at the end of 1947. Other factors maximization has been challenged but the 3, 2006, pp. 429-452, See also, Ian Davis need to be considered, including the large high cost-base of complex systems and Emma Mayhew, What Happens When a number of women who left the workforce, integration and bureaucratic accountability White Elephant Meets a Paper Tiger? The approximately 1 million, but the general is recognised as a serious barrier to Prospective Sale of Eurofighter Typhoon picture is one of rapid recovery in output conversion. See also Mary Kaldor, The Aircraft to Saudi Arabia and the EU Code of and employment after a short adjustment Baroque Arsenal (Abacus Books, 1983). Conduct on Arms Exports, (BASIC Papers period. A similar picture emerges from the No. 49, 2005) and, USA where over nine million military 19 Melman, Profits with Production, pp. 220- http://business.timesonline.co.uk/ personnel were demobilized and 221. article/09067-2320097,00.html unemployment remained under 4%. See 20 The bill put forward by Representative Ted 35 SIPRI Yearbook 2006, Stockholm Judith Reppy, ‘The United States’ in The Weiss, H.R. 425, Defense Economic International Peace Research Institute, table Structure of the Defense Industry: An Adjustment Acct, 1977 is the most 9A.1, page 421. International Survey, edited by Nicole Ball comprehensive example, see William 36 http://www.dasa.mod.uk/ and Milton Leitenberg (Croom Helm, 1983) Hartung, The Economic Consequences of a pp. 21-2. Nuclear Freeze (Council for Economic 37 For a technical analysis of employment statistics see A.J.W. Turner, M.G. Chalmers 7 Peter Southwood, Disarming Military Priorities, 1984), pp. 91-95. See also Bill and K. Hartley, Estimated UK Employment Industries - Turning an Outbreak of Peace Niven, ‘An Approach to Defence Industry Dependent on MoD Expenditure and Defence Into an Enduring Legacy, pp. 9-15 Conversion’ END Papers, Five (END, Spring Exports, Defence Industrial Bulletin, No. 5 (Macmillan, 1991). 1983). (Defence Analytical Service Agency, 2003) 8 Hilary Wainwright and Dave Elliott, The 21 Michael Renner, Economic Adjustments after the Cold War - Strategies for also, Robert Bowles et al, Identifying the Lucas Plan : A New Trade Unionism in the Flow of Domestic and European Making? (Allison and Busby, 1982). Conversion (Dartmouth Publishing Company, 1992) provides a good Expenditures into the English Regions 9 The Lucas Plan can be seen, at one level, as international comparative study. (Nuffield College, Oxford University, 2003) an anti-redundancy campaign but it also and Bryn Morgan, Defence Employment evolved into a radical vision of both the 22 See Soutwood, op.cit, pp. 192-193 for the 1996-97 (House of Commons Research possibilities for peaceful technologies and OEA and N. Cox and N. Hooper, ‘The Paper 99/27, House of Commons, 1999). European Union KONVER Programme’, also for workers’ control over the 38 Identifying the flow of domestic and production process. Mike Cooley, one of the Defence and Peace Economics, (Vol. 7, 1996, pp. 75-94). European expenditure into the English founders of the Combine, emphasised how regions, Final Report for the Office of the Computer Aided Design and Manufacture 23 Terry Barker, Paul Dunne & Ron Smith, Deputy Prime Minister, Sept 2003, DTLR could either be used to de-skill work or to ‘Measuring the Peace Dividend in the UK’, Contract No. LGR 65/12/75. Section 4.7, enhance skills and worker satisfaction. His Journal of Peace Research, Vol 12, No. 4, page 102 Available online at: book was highly influential in stressing the November 1991, pp. 359-375. http://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/projects/odp importance of human-centred design m/Identifyingtheflow.pdf capabilities. See Architect or Bee (Langley 39 www.ost.gov.uk/setstats. Technological Services, 1980).
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 34 40 Chris Langley, Scientists in the Laboratory - Long-term research has focused on holding 66 Walker, op.cit, p. 137. Military Involvement in Science and the resultant super-heated plasma through 67 Ibid, p.117. Technology and Some Alternatives, p. 8 the use of magnetic forces as a source of (Scientists for Global Responsibility, 2005). heat for power. The Dept of Energy Review 68 Thorp may have to stay closed until 2007 because of the serious nature of the 41 See Steven Schofield, The Defence in 1986 commented: “On purely economic terms it would be hard to envisage cost radioactive discharges. See Industrial Strategy and Alternative www.belosa.org/article/thorp_2007. Approaches (BASIC Papers No. 50). effectiveness for fusion R&D on the timescales and levels necessary to achieve 69 See news reports: ‘World’s Biggest Off- 42 Paul Ingram, Decisions over the future of eventual power reactor deployment. Its shore Wind Farm Approved for Thames British Nuclear Weapons, (BASIC Green justification is likely to be strategic and Estuary Site’, Guardian 19th December Paper, December 2006). Available online at political rather than economic.” Background 2006, available online at: http://www.basicint.org/nuclear/beyondtri papers relevant to the 1986 appraisal of UK http://politics.guardian.co.uk/green/story/ dent/greenpaper.pdf. Energy R&D and Demonstration, B87 (ETSU, 0,,1975066,00.html. 43 House of Commons Defence Committee, Dept of Energy, 1986). 70 www.oceanpd.com/pelamis. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Policy, p.18 (HC 55 See Ross, op.cit 36, Session 1980-81) evidence by Dr 71 Hansard, w/ans, col 878w, 21/10/2004. Kinloch, Managing Director, Corporate 56 House of Commons Science and 72 A proposed Energy Technologies Institute Planning, British Shipbuilders. Technology Committee, Wave and Tidal would be set up with £500 million of Energy, p. 197 and xxi (HC 291, Session 44 Ibid, p. xxxviii government funding to be matched by the 2000-01). private sector, although the actual focus of 45 Aldermaston Update, September 2003, 57 David Elliott, Energy, Society and research is not yet clear, other than it Public Accounts Committee, Devenport Environment - Technology for a Sustainable should contribute to security of supply. Dockyard - The Construction of Nuclear Future p. 164 (Routledge, 2003). http://www.gnn.gov.uk/environment/detail Facilities at Devenport (HC 90, Session .asp?ReleaseID=227095&NewsAreaID=2&Na 2002/03). 58 Bora Douthwaite, Enabling Innovation - A Practical Guide to Understanding and vigatedFromDepartment=False 46 Comptroller and Auditor General, Ministry Fostering Change (Zed Books, 2002) 73 http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/ of Defence and Property Services Agency: Douthwaite uses Denmark’s wind power contentlookup.cfm?SitekeyParam=D-E. Control and Management of the Trident industry as a successful example of Programme (HC 27, Session 1987/88). 74 Energy White Paper, Our Energy Future, innovation in which the tradition of co- Creating a Low Carbon Economy, p. 12 47 Steven Schofield, The UK and Non-offensive operatives and community ownership (Cmnd 5761, 2003). The emphasis has been Defence - An Introductory Study on the helped stimulated rapid learning and on the UK carbon-reduction target of 60% Implications of the UK adopting a Non- dissemination of knowledge as well as by 2050 in line with proposals to keep the offensive Defence Stance (Security Studies overcome some of the opposition that has atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration Network, 2002). Also Alternative Defence occurred in other countries. below 450 ppm, consistent with a Commission, Defence Without the Bomb See also Adrian Smith and Andy Stirling, temperature rise to 2o C above pre- (Taylor and Francis, 1983). For EU options Inside or Out? Open or Closed? - Positioning industrial levels, but this does not take see Jocelyn Mawdsley & Gerard Quille, the Governance of Sustainable account of cumulative emissions between Equipping the Rapid Reaction Force - Development, Science Policy Research Unit 2000 and 2050.Much deeper cuts will be Options and Constraints on a European (SPRU, Brighton University, 2006) for an needed to achieve this target. Defence Equipment Strategy, BICC Paper No analysis of socio-technological frameworks 75 http://environment.guardian.co.uk/ 33 (Bonn International Conversion Centre, for innovation. energy/story/0,,1845526,00.html. 1983). 59 www.scandinavica.com/culture/ 76 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/ 48 Keith Hartley, Naval Shipbuilding in the UK nature/wind.htm. europe/1765054.stm. and Europe : A Case for Consolidation? 60 Elliott, op.cit, p. 199. (Centre for Defence Economics, York 77 For a detailed analysis of VSEL during this University, 2003). 61 Lester Brown, Plan B - Rescuing a Planet period see the Monopolies and Mergers Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble, Commission, The General Electric Company 49 A report co-authored by senior MOD pp. 159-160 (WWW. Norton, 2003). economists suggests that reductions in and VSEL - A Report on the Proposed Merger defence employment will lead to the 62 Walt Patterson, Nuclear Power (Penguin, (Cmnd Paper 2852, 1995) creation of greater numbers of jobs in the 1976) provides a good introduction to the 78 Ibid. p. 14. development of nuclear power. The search civilian sector. See Malcolm Chalmers, Neil 79 Public Accounts Committee, MoD Major for commercial development of nuclear Davies, Keith Hartley and Chris Wilkinson, Projects Report 2004 (HC 410, Session fusion could have come directly out of The Economic Costs and Benefits of UK 2004-05). Defence Exports (York University Centre for Swift’s satire, Gulliver’s Travels. There is a 80 The MMC calculated on a local multiplier Defence Studies, November 2001). very funny encounter between Gulliver and of 1.7 jobs for each shipyard worker. Paragraph 86, page 33. a scientist who is carrying out experiments to extract sunlight from cucumbers, so that 81 Furness Enterprise, Assisting Companies to 50 Department of Energy, Energy Research the king’s garden can have a guaranteed Create New Jobs, 1992-2005 (Furness and Development in the UK, Energy Paper supply of warmth during inclement Enterprise, 2005) and Furness Enterprises No. 11 (Dept of Energy, 1976). summer-time weather. The scientist is Annual Report and Accounts 2004-05 51 International Energy Agency, IEA Energy confident of future success, in this case (Furness Enterprise, 2005) for a listing of Technology R&D Statistics 1974-1995 after six or seven years of research, if only companies supported and employment (OECD, 1997) p.177. he can be guaranteed funding. But the either generated or sustained. satire does not simply lie in the absurdity 52 David Ross, Power from the Waves (OUP, 82 See Barrow Borough Council, of the research, nor the optimistic 1995) is the most comprehensive book www.barrowbc.gov.uk/default.aspx?page=1 timescale for it to reach fruition, but in the available on the background to UK policy 572. on wave power R&D. context of poverty and hunger that Swift saw around him everyday, where immediate 83 According to official figures only 1,298 53 ETSU had responsibility for both nuclear concerns are ignored to pursue a chimera. people were out of work and claiming and renewables because nuclear was For the official assessment of the prospects unemployment benefit but the figure is classified as an ‘alternative’ energy source for fusion, see www.fusion.org that misleading because there are a huge to non-renewable fossil fuels. describes the UK’s own project and the number of people who have been diverted 54 A fast breeder reactor is one where fuel is joint European programme, TORUS, both to incapacity benefit, with estimates that irradiated with high-energy neutrons and based at Culham. An estimated £20 billion between 2,500-2,700 men and 1,900 women which produce more fissile material world wide has been spent on fusion of these are hidden unemployed who would (usually plutonium) than it consumes. research to date. work if opportunities existed. See, Stephen Nuclear fusion is the process whereby Fothergill, Tony Gore and Ryan Powell, 63 William Walker, Nuclear Entrapment : hydrogen atoms fuse together at very high Relocating Public Sector Jobs - The Case for THORP and the Politics of Commitment temperatures (tens of millions of degrees Deprived Non-Traditional Locations, pp. 28- (Institute for Public Policy Research, 1999) centigrade) to form helium. 29 (Centre for Regional Economic and 64 Ibid, pp.17-21. Social Research, Sheffield Hallam 65 See the House of Commons Energy University, 2005) Committee, The Fast Breeder Reactor (HC 119, Session 1989/90)
35 Oceans of Work: Arms Conversion Revisited January 2007 84 North West Regional Development Agency, North West Regional Economic Strategy, 2006, (NWDA, 2006) website: nwda- cms.amaze.co.uk, also, www.nwda.co.uk/ SimpleContent.aspx?news=1&area= 72&sub area=73&item=20044021804927169&yr =2004. 85 See Keep Our Future Afloat Campaign (KOFAC) evidence, House of Commons Defence Committee, Future Carrier and Joint Combat Aircraft Programmes, pp. 96- 101 (HC 554, 2005-06). Also, KOFAC, A Key Role for Barrow Shipyard In Building the Future Royal Navy (KOFAC, 2006). The yard has recently completed the construction of two landing platform dock (LPD) support ships for the MoD and KOFAC is arguing that this is a solid basis for the construction of large sections of the aircraft carriers that can then be transported to the final assembly yard elsewhere. 86 John F. Schank, Jessie Riposo, John Birkles and James Chiesa, The UK Nuclear Submarine Industrial Base - Sustaining Design and Production Resources, (Rand Corporation, 2005), See also Keith Hartley, The UK Submarine Industrial Base - An Economic Perspective (York University, 2002) (http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/econ/ research/documents/uksib.pdf#search= %22Keith%20Hartley%2C%20UK%20 Submarine%22. 87 The multi-role MUFC concept includes vertical-launch missile tubes to allow the submarines to fire both nuclear, long-range missiles (possibly including Trident D5, or a lower cost but less capable ballistic missile) and conventionally-armed Tomahawk cruise missiles. See, http://navy-matters.beedall.com/mufc.htm. 88 See North West Evening Mail, 28/07/2006 Shipyard to Get Cut of £40 million submarine cash. 89 Fothergill et al, op.cit.
‘Launch the sub-vertables’ Cartoon: Stig
British American Security Information Council — w w w .basicint.org 36