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POLYCAB INDIA LTD |Electrical Equipments August 16, 2020 Initiating Coverage POLYCAB INDIA LTD | Electrical Equipments ........Connection Zindagi Ka Polycab is India’s leading manufacturer of Cables & Wires with an 18% market share in the Rating Buy organised market with a phenomenal distribution reach spanning over 3500 dealers and distributors covering over 1.25lac retail outlets. With a highly diversified product mix, Cables & Current Market Price (₹) 867 Wires accounts for 85% of its ₹88bn Revenues and despite being a late entrant in the FMEG ( Fast 12 M Price Target (₹) 1,066 Moving Electrical Goods) segment, Polycab has been able to grow this business at a scorching Potential upside (%) 23 pace of 43% CAGR over the past five years despite operating in a highly competitive landscape. Polycab has successfully transitioned its 20% ROE business from being a B2B business to a B2C business by leveraging its tremendous brand equity through innovative ASP strategies and CRM Stock Data programs. The combination of a multi-pronged growth strategy has enabled the company to FV (₹) 10 grow its profits at a CAGR of 37% over the last five years. We Initiate Coverage on Polycab after an extremely challenging Q1 due to the Pandemic with a BUY rating and a price objective of ₹1,066 Market Cap Full (₹ bn) 130 Market Cap Free Float (₹ bn) 22 Market Leader in Wires & Cables Business Polycab has a dominant market share in the wires & cables business with the largest 52-Week High / Low (₹) 1,182 / 525 manufacturing capacity of 3.7 million kms per year. Wires & cables is the major business segment 1 Year Avg. Dly Traded Volume (in lakh) 3 of the company with a contribution of around 84% to the total revenue. The company has grown BSE Code / NSE Symbol 542652 / POLYCAB the wires & cables business at a CAGR of ~9.3% for the last five years with the launch of a wide Bloomberg POLYCAB IN range of products under the power, control, instrumentation, communication, optical fibre and railway signaling categories. We expect the wires & cables business to further deliver higher growth and margins supported by an increasing capex by the government and private sector. Annual Report 2019-20 Fast Growing FMEG Business Click here Polycab India Ltd -2019-20 Polycab has been a late entrant in the FMEG business in the year 2013 with the launch of its switches & switchgear business. Since then, the company has expanded its product basket to include products such as fans, lighting & luminaries, water heaters among others. Polycab has Shareholding Pattern (%) grown this business at a CAGR of 43% for the last five years on the back of the strong brand (%) Jun-20 Mar-20 Dec-19 Sep-19 recall and distribution network. The company has successfully turned this business profitable at Promoter 68.55 68.58 68.60 68.69 an operating level within two years of the launch. FMEG business contributes around 9% of the company’s total revenue and is expected to further increase to mid-teen level. We expect this FPIs 4.51 4.89 4.64 3.75 business to continue to grow at a high teen percent for the next few years and capture a good MFs 2.58 2.82 3.17 4.22 market share. IFC 9.48 9.48 9.50 9.50 Strong Distribution Network and Brand Value Others 14.88 14.23 14.09 13.84 Over the years, Polycab has expanded its distribution network across India to cater 3,500+ distributors and 1,25,000+ retailers. The distribution network is evenly spread across Northern, Western, Southern and Eastern regions supported by 30 warehouses. Along with an extensive Price Performance (%) distribution network, the company has created a strong brand value through aggressive (%) 1M 3M 6M 1YR advertising and promotional campaigns. Polycab is constantly increasing its distribution network Polycab 8% 24% -19% 54% and also spending on advertising and promotions through multiple channels. Strong brand value NSE Nifty 5% 22% -8% 1% and extensive distribution network will help the company in launching new products. * To date / current date : 14-Aug-20 YE Mar 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E Polycab vs Nifty 50 Total Sales (₹ Cr) 6,770 7,986 8,830 7,527 9,314 10,495 Polycab NIFTY 50 EBITDA Margins (%) 10.8% 11.9% 12.9% 9.2% 13.0% 13.5% 250 PAT Margins (%) 5.3% 6.3% 8.7% 5.5% 8.6% 9.0% 200 EPS (₹) 25.35 35.39 51.16 27.70 53.47 63.24 150 P/E (x) - 18.50 14.56 31.57 16.36 13.83 100 P/BV (x) - 3.25 2.87 3.19 2.77 2.38 EV/EBITDA (x) 1.08 9.66 9.59 17.79 9.90 8.06 50 ROE (%) 15.27% 17.57% 19.96% 10.24% 17.07% 17.36% 0 ROCE (%) 25.46% 29.00% 26.81% 14.34% 23.29% 23.66% Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 Meet Jain | [email protected] LKP Research +91 22 6635 1220 POLYCAB INDIA LTD | Initiating Coverage Company Overview Polycab India Limited (‘Polycab’) is a manufacturer and supplier of wires & cables and FMEG products. The company’s product portfolio in the wires and cables segment includes power, control, instrumentation, solar, building, multi core, communication, welding, rubber, submersible flat & round, railway signaling, and specialty other cables. The FMEG segment includes electric fans, LED lighting and luminaries, switches, switchgears, solar products, water heaters and conduits & accessories. Wires & Cables business is the major contributor to the company’s revenue with a share of ~84% followed by FMEG business. The company has also ventured into the EPC business in FY09 to provide turnkey solutions for power distribution and rural electrification projects. The EPC business provides a strategic advantage to the company’s wires & cables business. Revenue Mix trend over the years 100.0% 2.8% 4.9% 3.5% 5.7% 6.6% Others* 95.0% 5.5% 3.4% 6.9% 90.0% 7.9% 9.3% FMEG 85.0% 91.7% 91.7% 89.6% 86.5% 80.0% 84.1% W&C 75.0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 *Others includes EPC business Source: Industry, LKP Research Polycab has the largest manufacturing capacity with 25 manufacturing facilities spread across 7 locations in India. Of the 25 manufacturing units, four units are for the production of FMEG products including a 50:50 joint ventures with Techno Electromech Pvt Ltd for the manufacturing of LED products and Trafigura Pte Ltd for the manufacturing of copper rods . The company recently purchased the balance 50% stake in Ryker plant from Trafigura Pte Ltd to make it a wholly-owned subsidiary. The company has backward integrated its operations by building manufacturing capabilities for all the key raw materials such as aluminum rods, copper rods, and various grades of PVC, rubber, XLPE compounds, GI wire and strip. LKP Research 2 POLYCAB INDIA LTD | Initiating Coverage Manufacturing Capability Location Product Capacity Halol/Daman Wires and Cables 3.7 million km/Year Roorkee Fans 3.1 million units/Year Nashik Switch and Switchgear 7.2 million units/Year Chhani Lights 18.2 million units/Year Waghodia Copper rod/Steel Wire 2,25,000 MT (Copper) and 60,000 MT (Steel) Padana Other Products 20,250 units/Year Source: Company, LKP Research Polycab supplies its products to retail outlets through a supply chain network of dealers, distributors and warehouses. The company provides its products under brand. Polycab has a distribution network of more than 3,500 distributors and 1,25,000+ retails outlets evenly spread across all the regions in India. The company has 30 warehouses across 20 states & union territories to support its extensive distribution network for faster deliveries. Polycab Has Created A Pan India Presence Some of the Marquee Customers Polycab has a diversified customer base with no single customer contributing more than 10% of the revenue. The company’s top 5 customers contribute ~19% of the revenue and the top 10 contributes ~27% of the revenue. Polycab has catered to many marquee customers in sectors such as oil & gas, cement, telecom, power, chemical among others. The company has also established its presence in the export market by incorporating subsidiaries in the USA and Australia. Export business has increased to 12% of revenue in FY20 owing to a large order from the Dangote group for the cables & wires business. In Q1FY21, exports grew by 116% year on year excluding the Dangote order sales and contributed 10% of the total revenue. Going forward, the company has identified 10 geographies with a potential export opportunities and expects to maintain an export shares at ~10% of the total revenue. LKP Research 3 POLYCAB INDIA LTD | Initiating Coverage Investment Argument Market Leader in the Wires & Cables Business Polycab is India’s largest manufacturer and suppliers of wires and cables with a market share of ~18% in the organized market (~12% of the total market). The company has a wide range of products catering to a diverse customer base across industries. The product basket comprises of wires & cables such as power, control, instrumentation, solar, building, multi core, communication, optical fibre, welding, rubber, submersible flat & round, railway signaling, and specialty other cables. Polycab has continuously invested in innovation and expansion of its wires & cables business, which has helped them to earn a competitive advantage over its peers. Diverse Range of Products Source: Company, LKP Research Polycab Commands a Larger Pie in Wires & Cables Business 12% Polycab KEI 7% Havells 32% 6% Finolex Cables 5% RR Kabel 4% V Guard 1% Other Organized Players 33% Unorganized Players Source: Industry, LKP Research The wires & cables business is the largest business segment which contributes almost 84% to the company’s top line.
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