BearWorks MSU Graduate Theses Summer 2016 Japan: Nuclearizing the Reclining Dragon? Michael LaDon Cribb Jr. As with any intellectual project, the content and views expressed in this thesis may be considered objectionable by some readers. However, this student-scholar’s work has been judged to have academic value by the student’s thesis committee members trained in the discipline. The content and views expressed in this thesis are those of the student-scholar and are not endorsed by Missouri State University, its Graduate College, or its employees. Follow this and additional works at: https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/theses Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons Recommended Citation Cribb, Michael LaDon Jr., "Japan: Nuclearizing the Reclining Dragon?" (2016). MSU Graduate Theses. 2358. https://bearworks.missouristate.edu/theses/2358 This article or document was made available through BearWorks, the institutional repository of Missouri State University. The work contained in it may be protected by copyright and require permission of the copyright holder for reuse or redistribution. For more information, please contact [email protected]. JAPAN: NUCLEARIZING THE RECLINING DRAGON? A Masters Thesis Presented to The Graduate College of Missouri State University In Partial Fulfillment Of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science, Defense and Strategic Studies By Michael LaDon Cribb, Jr. July 2016 JAPAN: NUCLEARIZING THE RECLINING DRAGON? Defense and Strategic Studies Missouri State University, July 2016 Master of Science Michael LaDon Cribb, Jr. ABSTRACT Japan may be about to cross the threshold of a slow march toward nuclearization. This thesis will highlight signals that Japan not only has the means to develop nuclear weapons but maybe approaching a culmination point where Japan will cross the nuclear threshold. This thesis relies on a range of open-source documents and previously classified documents of the United States and Japan in order to reveal some of these subtle indications. Japan relies on four main factors to maintain its non–nuclear status: its alliance with the United States, nuclear deterrence underwritten by the United States, regional stability, and the nuclear non–proliferation regime. As all of these factors are in a state of flux, Japan has felt the need to remilitarize and reduce its dependency on the United States. Japan and the United States’ national security interests are diverging: the United States is focused on retrenchment and remains trapped in Middle Eastern disputes. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States’ nuclear enterprise has deteriorated. Moreover, the United States has made critical choices that further raise concerns over the credibility of the United States as a nuclear guarantor. All the while, Japan has faced an increasingly unstable region: North Korea, China, and Russia all pose threats to Japan’s national security. These threats provide additional incentives for Japan to remilitarize and reinterpret Article 9 of its Constitution. These four factors are also incentivizing Japan to reconsider its latent nuclear weapons capabilities. If present geo-political conditions do not change, Japan’s non-proliferation stance will culminate and Japan will develop an indigenous nuclear weapons program. KEYWORDS: Japan, Japanese constitution, Northeast Asia, mutual security, non– proliferation This abstract is approved as to form and content _______________________________ John Mark Mattox, Ph.D. Chairperson, Advisory Committee Missouri State University ii JAPAN: NUCLEARIZING THE RECLINING DRAGON? By Michael LaDon Cribb, Jr. A Masters Thesis Submitted to the Graduate College Of Missouri State University In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of Master of Science, Defense and Strategic Studies July 2016 Approved: _______________________________________ John Mark Mattox, Ph.D. _______________________________________ Lisa Bronson, Esq. _______________________________________ Andrei Shoumikhin, Ph.D. _______________________________________ Julie Masterson, Ph.D.: Dean, Graduate College iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS There are so many people that I would like to thank but, due to space, I will only name a few. First, I would like to thank all my family for supporting me while I undertook this task. Thank you, Holly, of all the times I spent bouncing ideas and thoughts off you. Thank you for all the proofreading and recommendations. Thank you for your faith in me. Professor Bronson, thank you for all the additional time you spent assisting me in defining my ideas and scoping the thesis. Most of all, thank you for keeping me motivated. To the rest of my thesis committee, thank you for your advice; it has helped me more than you will ever know. To my fellow classmates, thank you all for your interest in my thesis, and the dialogue many of us have shared on each of our theses. Most importantly, I thank God for giving me the patience, knowledge, and determination to pursue and complete this thesis. I dedicate this thesis to Holly, James, and Chase. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ..........................................................................................................................1 The US–Japan Relationship ...............................................................................................11 The Preparation ......................................................................................................12 Prosperity Equals More Change ............................................................................15 Toward a New Security Arrangement ...................................................................16 Asia on Her Own, No More Vietnams...................................................................21 Maturing in a New Environment with Asymmetrical Threats ...............................24 Postured for the Big Decision ................................................................................33 Sheltering Under the Decaying Umbrella ..........................................................................35 A “Gray War” Building in Northeast Asia .......................................................................43 Japan’s Unruly Neighbors with Nuclear Capabilities or Ambitions .....................43 Provocative North Korea .......................................................................................45 China Rising...........................................................................................................50 Senkaku/Diaoyu Maritime Conflict .......................................................................52 Russia: The Regional Wildcard ............................................................................59 Summary ................................................................................................................63 Japan and the Nuclear Non–Proliferation Regime.............................................................64 Hesitant to Commit ................................................................................................64 NPT Erosion and Japan ..........................................................................................66 The Third Image Reality ........................................................................................73 More than a Latent Nuclear Weapons Program .................................................................75 The Forgotten Japanese Weapons Program ...........................................................75 Three Studies and No Program—Yet ....................................................................76 The Physical Means to Go Nuclear .......................................................................82 Japanese Technical and Delivery Means ...............................................................86 Nuclear Material Diversion....................................................................................91 Against All Expectations ...................................................................................................92 Reinterpreting Japanese Law .................................................................................92 The Strong Hold of Globalization..........................................................................96 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................100 References ........................................................................................................................106 Appendices ......................................................................................................................127 v Appendix A. The Constitution of Japan ..............................................................127 Appendix B. Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between Japan and The United States of America .....................................140 Appendix C. The Budapest Memorandum ..........................................................143 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Global Rankings of Militaries of Japan, Russia, China, and North Korea. .........45 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Japan’s Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle ......................................................................7 Figure 2. Japanese Self–Defense Force Global Missions Post–September 11, 2001 ........29 Figure 3. Japanese Defense Spending and Significant Historical Events ..........................31 Figure 4. North Korean Missiles and Ranges