SELECT BRIEFING EUROPE EAST

CSIS East Europe Project Volume 2 ¦ Number 28 ¦ July 22, 2005 Central European Update

Poland be used to train 24 Polish F-16 forces will remain in southern Iraq, gency. The modernization of the The Belarusan Foreign Ministry pilots, purchase two unmanned where they have recently begun army enjoys broad political and expelled Polish Consul Andrzej pathfinders, and several armored work on a zoning plan for the city public support in . Buczac, the director of the consular hummers. The meeting between the of Basra. Czech meteorologists and ¯ ¯ ¯ department at the Polish embassy, two men was the capstone of the bomb specialists will continue to On 18 July, 100 members of a from Belarus on 15 July. Buczak is minister’s two-day long visit to the operate in Afghanistan as part of Slovak mechanized battalion and the second Polish diplomat forced to United States, which included stops the NATO mission. In addition, 25 Indiana National Guardsmen leave Belarus in 2005 due to in- at the U.S. Central command in two Czech specialists are being conducted a joint exercise, the first creased political tensions between Tampa, Florida and the naval base sent to help NATO monitor air military exercise in which Slovak the two states. According to a 16 in Norfolk, Virginia. space over the Baltic Sea. troops have offered their expertise to Americans. The training was July radio interview, Polish Foreign Slovakia Minister Adam Rotfeld views the scheduled to take place over the President Vaclav Klaus has sug- On 15 July, the Slovak Constitu- course of ten days, and was to event as a result of Belarusan Presi- gested that the European Union tional Court took measures to stop dent Alyaksandr Lukashenka focus on peacekeeping and convoy should be replaced with a much further proceedings in the ratifying security. Slovak forces have exten- “looking for an enemy” in the Poles. looser “Organization of European the EU constitution until it has Lukashenka has accused of sive experience with peacekeeping States” focused on free trade. Klaus been determined whether a referen- due to the ongoing mission in Kos- interfering in Belarusan domestic cited the French and Dutch rejec- dum should be held. Although the affairs through its support for an ova. tions of the constitution as evi- parliament approved the constitu- independent Union of Poles in Bela- dence that Europeans see the EU as tion in May, some citizen groups Hungary rus. a threat to state sovereignty and have argued that the public has a On 19 July, the OECD criticized ¯ ¯ ¯ democracy. Klaus’s views are re- right to vote directly on the issue. Hungary for its large budget defi- On 18 July deputy Foreign Minister portedly in line with those of the However, on 18 July President cit, which seriously threatens the Andrzej Zalucki pledged Poland’s Czech public. According to a 15 Ivan Gasparovic stated that he planned adoption of the euro in support for Ukraine’s future mem- July poll, the majority of citizens does not feel bound by the court 2010. In order to meet the criteria, bership in NATO and the EU at the have lost trust in EU institutions. ruling, although he does not want Hungary must bring its deficit second session of the Polish- However, most Czech politicians to rush his decision on ratification. below 3 percent of GDP, and ana- Ukrainian Parliamentary Assembly have reaffirmed support for more The constitution has already been lysts claim that failure to do so will in Warsaw. Zalucki said that Poland intensive European integration. As approved in 13 EU member states, damage the government’s credibil- also supports Ukraine’s entry into part of a government campaign to but was rejected by referenda in ity. The OECD report also urged the World Trade Organization and raise public awareness, free copies France and the . Hungary to launch crucial reforms efforts to reform visa procedures of the EU constitution were made ¯ ¯ ¯ designed to tackle the high unem- between the two countries. Poland’s available starting on 18 July. On 15 July, the Slovak military ployment rate. backing for Ukraine’s integration ¯ ¯ ¯ officially ended conscription of into the EU, NATO, and other West- Defense Minister Karel Kuehnl new recruits as a first step toward ern organizations is part of its stated that the Czech military pres- the goal of a fully professional “Eastern Dimension” strategy aimed ence in a number of countries will army by 1 January 2006. Although at strengthening democracies in the continue, and that he will soon the new military will have fewer Western CIS and Caucasus regions. submit a mission plan for next year troops, it will be more highly ¯ ¯ ¯ to the Chamber of Deputies. The trained and better equipped in com- Polish Defense Minister Jerzy largest Czech presence will be in pliance with NATO standards. Szmajdzinski met with U.S. Secre- Kosova, where 100 troops are be- Defense Minister Juraj Liska said tary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld ing sent in addition to the 400 al- that mandatory service will be in Washington on 20 July to discuss ready in place. The presence in abolished by the end of 2006, al- how Poland is to spend the $100 Bosnia will also be increased and though the government will retain million in U.S. military aid. its equipment upgraded. Despite the ability to call up troops in the Szmajdzinski said that the $57 mil- rumors to the contrary, Czech event of a war or a national emer- lion to be received this year would Featured Photo: Kaunas Castle, , Baltic States Update harmonious relations with Russia are of primary Federation Council, the Russian State Duma, Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet trav- concern. Several Russian government officials and the Estonian Parliament. The treaty nego- eled to Brussels on 18 July to attend the EU have also expressed interest in restarting the tiations produced a treaty that was signed in Foreign Ministers meeting where he received talks. On 18 July, Russian Federation Council May, but Moscow withdrew its signature be- support for Estonia’s border treaty negotia- Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Mikhail cause on a preamble by the Estonian Parlia- tions with Russia. Paet stated that such support Margelov announced the establishment of a ment that acknowledged the Soviet occupation is a sign that all EU member states agree that “triple framework of negotiations” between the of the Baltic state from 1940 to 1991. Continued on p. 2 Eastern Europe Project · Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW · Washington, DC 20006 · Tel: (202) 887-0200 · Fax: (202) 775-3199 · http://www.csis.org/ee Page 2 Select Briefing Europe East Baltic States Update Contd. Latvia first proposed in 1998 but has been delayed due Lithuanians consider the level of democracy low Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir to political tensions between the two states over a in their country. Despite the perception of a Chizhov announced on 19 July that his govern- Russian-Latvian border treaty. Both sides now democratic deficit, 59 percent of Lithuanians ment is considering economic cooperation and seem willing to separate the two issues, believing approve of the Baltic state’s EU membership trade agreements proposed by Latvian Foreign that the creation of the commission will have and a majority view accession in Euro-Atlantic Minister Artis Pabriks. The agreements center economic benefits for both states. institutions as beneficial for the country’s na- tional security. Lithuania’s continued approval on the creation of an intergovernmental com- Lithuania mission to improve trade and investment flows of the EU has remained stable despite declining According to a TNS Gallup Lietuva poll released support in most member states. between the two countries. The commission was on 19 July, a resounding majority (72 percent) of Southeast European Update ernment from President Georgi July that an agreement about U.S. gration remains his highest priority Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Parvanov on 18 July, after two use of Bulgarian bases at Novo and based on signals from Brussels, Sanader met U.S. President weeks of intense inter-party negotia- Selo and Bezmer could be con- his early resignation could jeopard- George W. Bush at the White tions over the nominee for the prime cluded as early as September after ize Romania’s accession timetable. House on 19 July and stressed that ministerial post. The Socialist Party a new Bulgarian government gets During an extraordinary session on Croatia is a reliable partner in has found one coalition partner in sworn in. Pardew stressed that an 19 and 20 July, he presented to spreading democracy and fighting the Movement for Rights and Free- American military presence in the parliament a political declaration terrorism. Sanader also asked for doms, but a third coalition partner is country would mostly involve on the reconstruction of the country Washington’s support for his coun- necessary to secure a parliamentary rotational training exercises, simi- and the much needed judicial re- try’s EU and NATO bids, which he majority. Socialists’ Deputy Chair- lar to the ongoing joint U.S.- forms. is scheduled to further discuss with man Roumen Ovcharov told jour- Bulgarian drill “Immediate Re- ¯ ¯ ¯ U.S. National Security Advisor, nalists that his party could also try to sponse” in Novo Selo. Meanwhile, An opinion poll released on 18 July Stephen Hadley. get the backing of individual law- 1,500 U.S. troops commenced a indicates that 54 percent of Roma- ¯ ¯ ¯ makers. Observers said that should similar training exercise this week nians oppose early elections, while In an interview on 20 July for the prime minister-designate Sergey at the Constanta military base in 45 percent are in favor. The poll, Croatian newspaper Vjesnik, Spe- Stanishev fail to form a stable gov- Romania, which has also been conducted by the Social Study cial Police Headquarters Com- ernment, Bulgaria could be headed earmarked by the Pentagon as a Group 2000, shows 48.79 percent mander Zdravko Janic asserted for early elections. The political potential host for U.S. redeploy- support for the ruling coalition that the experience and training of crisis comes at a time when the ment. between the National Liberal Party

Croatia’s special police force are country needs to adopt crucial re- and the Democratic Party, which among the best in Europe. But forms in order to join the EU in Romania marks a slight decrease during the January 2007. On 19 July, Prime Minister Calin past few months. The Prime Minis- Janic also admitted that despite Popescu-Tariceanu reversed his recent upgrades in equipment, the ¯ ¯ ¯ ter enjoys a 43 percent approval unit still lacks adequate arms to Outgoing U.S. ambassador to Bul- earlier decision to step down due to rating. Romanians also show a garia James Pardew said during a the urgency of dealing with the relatively high trust in NATO and counter potential terrorist and in- disastrous floods caused by heavy surgency threats. press conference with Deputy De- EU institutions, 60.35 percent and fense Minister Ilko Dimitrov on 15 rain in the past two weeks. 59.52 percent respectively. Slovenia Tariceanu also stated that EU inte- Slovenian police recorded 3,195 illegal border crossings in the first Eurobarometer Survey six months of 2005, a 26 percent rise compared to the same period Eurobarometer, the last year. The majority of illegal public opinion polling aliens use Slovenia as a transit agency of the Euro- country for migration to or pean Commission other West European states. How- released its July sur- ever, as a result of Ljubljana’s vey on attitudes to and accession into the EU in May expectations from the 2004, the number of immigrants European Union. to Slovenia has also been on the Citizens of all 25 rise. member states were asked to describe their Bulgaria expectation of the Outgoing Prime Minister Simeon next twelve months. A Saxecouburgotski announced on majority of the re- 22 July that his center-right party spondents stated that does not plan to join a coalition they believe that the government led by the Socialists. employment situation Socialist leader Sergey Stanishev in their country would received a mandate to form a gov- worsen.

Select Briefing is produced by the Eastern Europe Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. The CSIS Eastern Europe Project monitors daily developments throughout the East, Central, and Southeast European regions. This publication highlights news in the new European Union (EU) member states, as well as in the countries scheduled to join in the next round of EU enlargement. Select Briefing team: Janusz Bugajski, Director; Ilona Teleki, Fellow; Milena Staneva, Research Assistant and Editor of Select Briefing; David Plotz; Dragomira Zhecheva; and Jonathan Zuk. © 2005 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies . Eastern Europe Project · Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, NW · Washington, DC 20006 · Tel: (202) 887-0200 · Fax: (202) 775-3199 · http://www.csis.org/ee