Expert Meeting Paper

Expert Meeting Lone Wolves November 2010

Dr. Edwin Bakker Dr. Beatrice de Graaf

Lone Wolves How to Prevent This Phenomenon?

In this paper for the Expert Meeting entitled ‘Lone Wolves; How to Prevent This Seemingly New Phenomenon’, ICCT – The Hague Research Fellows Edwin Bakker and Beatrice de Graaf examine the rise of terrorist acts perpetrated by individuals. In addition to providing an analysis of these so-called terrorists, this paper proposes a range of counter- measures to address this threat.

Introduction US army major Nidal Malik Hasan, who is accused of a at Fort Hood in Perhaps one of the most puzzling and which 13 people died and 30 were wounded; unpredictable forms of terrorism is provided and the American mathematician Theodore by violent acts committed by a single Kaczynsky, also known as the “Una Bomber”, individual. These so-called lone wolves are a who engaged in a bombing spree that nightmare for the police and intelligence killed three and wounded 23. In addition, community as they are extremely difficult to there have been several lone wolves who detect and to defend against. Compared to assassinated political leaders, such as Yigal group terrorism or network-sponsored Amir, the assassin of former Israeli Prime terrorists, lone operators have a critical Minister Yitzhak Rabin; Volkert van der Graaf, advantage in avoiding identification and who killed the Dutch politician Pim Fortuyn; detection before and after their attacks, since and Mijailo Mijailovic, who is responsible for most of them do not communicate with the death of the Swedish Minister for Foreign others with regard to their intentions. Affairs Anna Lindh. These individuals and Although lone wolves might have the their violent acts exemplify the many disadvantage of lacking the means, skills, differences in targets and modus operandi, and “professional” support of terrorist as well the varieties in the political or groups, some of them nonetheless have ideological background of the perpetrators. proven to be very lethal. In this paper, we investigate these different Infamous examples from the , types of perpetrators and the possible Israel and Europe include Baruch Goldstein, increase of lone wolf terrorism due to an American-born Israeli citizen who was mounting appeals in Islamist circles to strike responsible for the death of 29 Muslims against the West as a lone operator. In praying in the Cave of the Patriarchs in addition, we look into the challenge of Hebron; the Austrian Franz Fuchs, who used countering lone wolf terrorism and map out letter bombs to kill 4 and injure 15 people; possible responses to prevent attacks –

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responses that at the same time respect are motivated for other reasons, such as fundamental freedoms and civil liberties. Virginia Tech shooter Seung-Hui Cho or Matti Saari, who was responsible for the Jokela Defining the Term high in Finland and who seems to have been inspired by Cho. It The term “lone wolf” was popularised in the should be noted that in some cases it is late 1990s by white supremacists Tom difficult to determine the motivations of the Metzger and Alex Curtis as part of an perpetrators; take for instance the case of encouragement to fellow racists to act alone Karst Tates, who drove his car into a crowd in committing violent crimes for tactical during the Dutch Queensday celebrations, reasons.1 Other terms that have been used to killing eight individuals including himself, and describe similar or comparable forms of who left no note or any other indication of his political violence include “leaderless motivations. In this paper we also exclude resistance’”2 and “freelance terrorism”.3 those individuals whose politically motivated acts are only targeted against property or at In this paper, we use the term lone wolf and insulting people – such as throwing pies at follow the definition of Burton and Stewart politicians. We solely focus on lone wolves who, in a STRATFOR essay, define a lone wolf who perpetrate acts aimed at taking away as “a person who acts on his or her own lives or who threaten to take away lives: the without orders from — or even connections to lone wolf terrorist. — an organisation”.4 They stress the difference with a sleeper cell, arguing that a sleeper is an operative who infiltrates the No Single Profile targeted society or organisation and then The above-mentioned definition of lone wolf remains dormant until a group or terrorists comprises a wide variety of violent organisation orders them into action. In extremists. Among them are religious zealots, contrast, “a lone wolf is a standalone environmental and animal rights extremists, operative who by his very nature is embedded white supremacists and jihadists. Even at the in the targeted society and is capable of self- level of the ideological or religious activation at any time”.5 In our view, this background there is much variety. For definition includes individuals that are instance, among those who claim or justify inspired by a certain group but who are not their acts in the name of a religion are under the command of any other person, individuals of all faiths. It includes Islamist group or network. They might be members of lone wolves like Nidal Malik Hasan and a network, but this network is not a Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad, who hierarchical organisation in the classical opened fire on a US military recruiting office, sense of the word.6 as well as anti-Semitic/Christian-identity adherents like Buford Furrow, who attacked a The terms “targeted society” and “self- Jewish Community Center, and Eric Rudolph, activation” imply that the lone wolf is acting also known as the Olympic Park Bomber, who in a rational way and that his acts are aimed was the perpetrator of a series of bombings against that society or parts thereof. These that killed two people and injured at least acts are politically or religiously motivated 150 others. The term further includes radical and aim to influence public opinion or Roman Catholics like James Kopp and radical political decision-making. This excludes Protestants like Scott Roeder, who both killed violent acts by standalone individuals that a physician who performed abortions.

1 TTSRL, 2007: p.13 Obviously, there is no single, standardised 2 Kaplan 1997 profile of a lone wolf. Nonetheless, it is 3 Kushner 2003: pp.144-5; Hewitt, 2003: p.79 possible to distinguish between different 4 Burton and Stewart, 2008 5 Ibid. categories of lone wolf terrorists based on 6 Sageman, 2004

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their ideological or religious background. In Lone Wolf as a Tactic addition, there are a number of commonalities shared amongst the various The increase in lone wolf terrorism in the US types of lone wolves. One of the problems for in the last three decades can partly be both counter-terrorism practitioners and explained by the adoption and dissemination academics is the relatively low number of of this method by and amongst right wing terrorists who act on their own without orders extremists.10 For example, in the late 1990s from or even connections to an organisation. the above mentioned white supremacists According to a study by the Dutch Institute for Tom Metzger and Alex Curtis explicitly Safety, Security and Crisis Management COT, encouraged fellow extremists to act alone in a total of 72 lone wolf terrorist incidents committing violent crimes.11 A few years accounted for only 1.28 percent of the total earlier, white supremacist Louis Beam, a number of terrorist incidents in the US, former Ku Klux Klan and Aryan Nations Germany, France, Spain, , and member, popularised the strategy of Australia.7 This statistical quantité négligable .12 “His vision was one turns these incidents into the typical “black where ‘all individuals and groups operate swan” occurrences that are almost independently of each other, and never impossible to categorise, systematise let report to a central headquarters or single alone predict.8 However, the number of lone leader for direction or instruction’”.13 And one wolf terrorist incidents seems to be on the can go back even further in time. Take for rise. example the concept of “propaganda by deed” as propagated by the anarchist Mikhail Bakunin in the 19th century. His ideas Increasing Numbers inspired terrorist attacks in many parts of the Following the COT/TTSRL report of 2007, Western world, killing and wounding high which uses the RAND-MIPT Terrorism ranking civil servants, politicians and even Knowledge Base, and looking at more recent heads of state, including the French cases, two things become clear. First, the president Carnot in 1894 and King Umberto I number of incidents has increased in recent of Italy in 1900. decades. Second, lone wolves seem to come from all kinds of ideological and religious In Islamist circles, the idea of support for extremist corners. The COT/TTSRL report small-scale, loosely organised terrorist shows that in the United States, white attacks is also hardly new. In 2003, for supremacists top the list of attacks by lone instance, an article was published on wolves. Other groups that have produced at extremist Internet forum Sada al Jihad least a handful or more lone wolf terrorists (Echoes of Jihad), in which Osama bin Laden are “Islamist fundamentalists”, sympathisers were encouraged to take action “nationalists/separatists”, and “anti- without waiting for instructions.14 In 2006, a abortion” terrorists. There are few cases of text authored by al Qaeda member Abu Jihad left wing and separatist lone wolf incidents al-Masri, "How to fight alone", circulated and a larger number of cases where the widely in jihadist fora.15 Another prominent ideological background is unclear. The data Salafi writer, Abu Musab al-Suri, also analysed by Spaaij – based on the advocated acts of terrorism carried out by COT/TTSRL study – show that the small, autonomous cells or individuals. He phenomenon is more prevalent in the United outlined a strategy for a global conflict taking States than in any other country and that it the form of resistance by small cells or increased significantly during the past three decades.9 10 Hamm, 2002 11 COT/TTSRL, 2007: p.13 12 Beam 1992 7 COT/TTSRL, 2007: pp.16-7 13 COT/TTSRL, 2007: p.13 8 Taleb, 2005 14 ITAC/CIEM, 2007: p.4 9 Spaaij, 2010: p. 854 15 Clemons, 2010

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individuals who keep organisational links to explosion at a Copenhagen hotel while an absolute minimum.16 preparing a (2010).

More anonymous calls for spontaneous As the above-mentioned examples indicate, Islamist extremist action appear quite there is a wide variety in target selection, use regularly on the Internet. In a reaction to the of weapons and modus operandi. Lone wolf Ford Hood shooting in Time Magazine, Bruce attacks range from threatening and Hoffman noted that "this new strategy of al- intimidating people to shootings and Qaeda is to empower and motivate bombings. As a consequence, there is much individuals to commit acts of violence variety in the profile of an attack, its lethality completely outside any terrorist chain of and impact. Moreover, huge differences exist command. […] The nature of terrorism is in the time span of incidents ranging from a changing, and Major Hasan may be an single attack – most cases – to a prolonged example of that." He also argued that if campaign, such as the case of Ted "leaderless resistance" is the wave of the Kaczynsky enduring almost two decades. future, it may be less lethal but harder to fight; there are fewer clues to collect and less Commonalities chatter to hear, even as information about means and methods is so much more widely Despite the many differences in background dispersed.17 and tactics, there are some commonalities shared amongst various lone wolves. One One year earlier, an intelligence report by the common characteristic among lone wolves is Canadian government’s Integrated Threat that they do not “work and play well with Assessment Centre – “Lone-Wolf Attacks: A others”. A classic example is Ted Kaczynski Developing Islamist Extremist Strategy?” – who lived in reclusion – a log cabin deep in also expressed concern about the emerging the Montana wilderness – and shunned most threat posed by lone wolf Islamist terrorists. forms of direct contact with the outside world. The report also stresses the importance of This is not to say that lone wolves have no the Internet. It states that “[t]he Internet is connections to organisations, networks or helpful to an individual who may be preparing scenes. In fact, many join extremist groups to conduct a lone-wolf attack, providing only to leave due to conflicting agendas or ideological motivation, encouragement, ideas, which are often too extreme even for justification, all within an anonymous the hard-core members of the group.19 environment”.18 Hence, there is a degree of commitment to and identification with extremist movements; Recent US examples of jihadi fighters who their solitary actions do not take place in a seem to have acted entirely on their own vacuum. This commonality is important in include the previously mentioned Nidal Malik identifying and understanding the processes Hassan and Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad of radicalisation.20 (2009). In Europe, there are only a few potential cases of Islamist lone wolf Another commonality among lone wolves is terrorists. In the Netherlands, a teenager that – notwithstanding their operational named Yehya Kadouri threatened Dutch reclusion – they often distribute their ideas or politicians and was trying to collect manifestos to the outside world, in some information and materials to make an cases even prior to the actual attack. Ted explosive device (2004). More recently, there Kaczynski published his own manifesto and was the case of a Chechen-born amateur wrote letters to local newspapers. Today, the boxer living in Belgium who was injured in an Internet allows anyone to post his or her extremist ideology on the Web. Scott Roeder

16 ITAC/CIEM, 2007: p.3 & Lia, 2007 17 Time Magazine, 11 November 2009 19 Vic Artiga, 2010 18 ITAC/CIEM, 2007: p.5 20 COT/TTSRL, 2007: pp.86-7

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wrote a column entitled “Tiller Watch” that commit attacks and those who simply was posted throughout the Internet. Major express radical beliefs or issue hollow Nidal Malik Hassan developed a Power Point threats.25 In Western countries in general and presentation entitled “The Koranic World in the US in particular, the freedom of speech View as it Relates to Muslims in the U.S. is a fundamental freedom which limits Military”.21 Jessica Stern and others also possibilities to investigate non-violent radical observe that lone-wolf terrorists tend to scenes. Knowing that all terrorists are radical create their own ideologies that combine but that most radicals are not terrorists, it is personal frustrations and aversion with extremely difficult to single out potential lone political, social or religious grievances.22 wolves before they strike, even with the help of the most sophisticated intelligence A third shared attribute is the fact that gathering tools. With such a large universe of although most terrorists do not suffer from potential suspects, this is like collecting any identifiable psychopathology, the rate of haystacks to find a needle.26 To make things psychological disturbance and social even worse, according to Hoffman, the ineptitude among lone wolves is relatively “leaderless resistance” is not only harder to high.23 fight than terrorism by an identifiable, organised conspiracy, but it is also more The Challenge of Fighting Lone prone to spontaneous combustion.27

Wolf Terrorism Lastly, lone wolves inspire copycat behaviour, Identifying, targeting, and arresting a lone become role models for other alienated wolf is very difficult. First of all, they are youngsters, and often invite band wagon solitary actors, whose intentions are hard to attacks. Kazcynski’s manifesto still circulates discern since they avoid contact with others. on the internet, as do Bouyeri’s letters. Bomb As Fred Burton argues, “[w]hen are letters, attacks and anthrax letters operating in a cell consisting of more than have a tendency to come in waves – although one person, there is a larger chance that one not necessarily by the same perpetrator. of them will get cold feet and reveal the plot to authorities, that law enforcement and Challenges for the Lone Wolf intelligence personnel will intercept a communication between conspirators, or that Fortunately, there are also some operational law enforcement authorities will be able to constrains for the lone wolf, in executing a introduce an informant into the group”.24 “successful” attack. Like any terrorist, they are hindered by the terrorist attack cycle. And Secondly, it is very hard to predict from because they are working alone, they have to which disenfranchised, alienated or conduct each step of the cycle by frustrated environment they stem. They themselves. “This means that they are display a variety of backgrounds with a wide vulnerable to detection at several different spectrum of ideologies and motivations. For junctures as they plan their attacks, the most instance, the murder by the anti-abortionist critical of which is the surveillance stage of Roetger and the US military recruiting office the operation.”28 In addition, these shooting by Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad individuals often lack the knowledge, occurred within the same week. resources and contacts to skill themselves in preparing and executing violent acts. And Thirdly, it is extremely difficult to differentiate although many websites and military manuals between those extremists who intend to provide instructions on executing violence,

21 Vic Artiga, 2010 25 NCTb, 2010 22 COT/TTSRL, 2007: p.86 26 Fred Burton, 2007 23 Hewitt, 2003: p.80 & Spaaij, 2010: p.854 27 Time Magazine, 11 November 2009 24 Fred Burton, 2007 28 Stewart and Burton, 2009

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such as making bombs, there is no substitute not simply single-source “contextualised”. In for hands-on experience in the real world.29 Shone’s opinion, “[i]ntelligence analysts and Because of these difficulties, many lone collectors must work in far closer unison, as wolves will at some instance have to step out well as alongside appropriate tradecraft of their vacuum. This makes them vulnerable specialists; from Explosive Ordnance Disposal to coming to somebody’s attention before experts to religious scholars.” Consequently, they can conduct an attack. This vulnerability such measures could lead to insights and often occurs as they seek the skills or indicators of how lone wolf attacks are materials required to conduct a terrorist assembled, increasing the ability of attack.30 interdiction forces to operate successfully to what he calls the “left of the bang” (i.e. all Counter-Terrorism Responses that happens prior to an attack).

How to deal with the threat of lone wolf In the second place, given the commonality terrorism and the challenge to identify, target, amongst many lone wolves that there is a and arrest persons acting entirely on their degree of commitment to and identification own? The debate on how to fight lone wolf with extremist movements and that their terrorism is far from decided and remains to radicalisation does not take place in a be reconciled with popular principles of vacuum, it is important to both investigate freedom – as is the case with any exchange and cooperate with afflicted communities. of those principles for security reasons. Given the general opinion on effective However, the above commonalities and counter-radicalisation strategy that its challenges provide some clues as where to success depends on effective community start with counter-terrorism responses. engagement, it is essential to promote passive and active hostility towards the First of all, according to Alex Shone of the terrorist yolk in these communities with the British Henry Jackson society, the key factor help of influential members of relevant of the UK’s counter-terrorism approach to communities. According to Shone, such a locating lone wolf attacks is knowing not who community-based approach should ultimately but how such attacks are formulated. In his foster a more advantageous operating essay, Shone also stresses the need to environment for counter-terrorism actors understand the radicalisation process of lone providing them with more eyes and ears on wolves. He argues that insight into these the ground and increase their interdiction processes hold possible avenues for effective capacity. In the long run, “[r]esolution of measures to prevent or counter the threat of these crises shall inevitably be the lone wolf terrorism.31 Knowing how attacks responsibility of effective, communal are formulated requires a far more sensitive guidance and mentoring”.32 detection system at the tactical, sharp-end of operations. Counter-terrorism services need In the third place, even seemingly to be far more attuned to those signatures, spontaneous combustion is often triggered by as minimal as that might be, that an a catalyst event. It could be rewarding to individual with a terrorist intent will inevitably study and compare the nature of potential give off in preparing their attack. This triggers or catalyst events in the requires not only effective data capture and radicalisation processes of lone wolves.33 Are exploitation enabled by efficient overall they located in the private domain, are they information management, but also fused provided by political developments? Or are intelligence products. This fused intelligence triggers even mastered by “entrepreneurs of must be genuine in its all-source origin and violence” who call upon their anonymous followers to become active. 29 Stewart and Burton, 2008 30 Stewart and Burton, 2009 32 Shone, 17 May 2010 31 Shone, 2010 33 See for instance Veldhuis and Staun, 2009

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to differentiate between violent radicals and In the fourth place, exactly because lone (the much larger group of) non-violent wolves – although operating alone – draw radicals. Hence, a broad strategy with a inspiration from other extremists or strong focus on interdiction, prevention and ideologues, counter narratives are important intelligence gathering by means of elements of such a strategy. Shone speaks of interpersonal contact might be more effective “psychological operations” that must be approach to counter lone wolf terrorism than stepped up to match the stride of terrorists’ a more repressive approach with an effective exploitation of UK operations in emphasis on more technical intelligence Afghanistan; and to eventually overtake them gathering disciplines. and diminish their impact. “This factor extends also to psychological operations conducted against the portrayal of suicide Many Unanswered Questions bombings. Such events, as the most extreme As mentioned- earlier, the question of how manifestation of , must be best to fight lone wolf terrorism is far from utilised against the perpetrators to decided. The answers on the “how?” question delegitimize their credibility”.34 regarding modus operandi of lone wolf

terrorists and their radicalization processes In the fifth place, although lone wolves are no are preliminary ones that deserve further part of hierarchical organisations, they do investigation. And with the apparent increase have a context. Awareness programs for of Islamist lone wolf terrorism, new questions parents, schools, universities could be pop up, for instance about the development interesting to reflect upon – obviously without of the concept of “leaderless jihad”, the role launching large scale public campaigns that of the Internet and the possible impact of only serve to create a moral panic. attacks by Islamist lone wolves on societies in

general and Muslim communities and Lastly, communicating on the one hand the Islamist subgroups in particular. Will there be threat of lone wolves to relevant target a potential contamination or inspiration effect audiences, but on the other hand refraining of Islamist lone-wolf terrorism? And is there a from handing them the public theatre they link between successful counter-terrorism strive for, is one of the largest challenges for measures against Islamist terrorist networks counter-terrorism actors. Handling lone and the increase in propaganda to take solo wolves below public surface, by intelligence action without waiting instructions? and investigating squads is one core principle of preventing lone wolves from installing fear The fact that there are – fortunately – few and chaos in society. cases we can learn from makes it a difficult

task to understand the “how” of lone wolf One last caveat should be formulated. By terrorism. Therefore, sharing experiences, targeting measures against lone wolf data and ideas regarding this particular terrorism according to knowledge of how and terrorist threat between practitioners, policy not who, it is possible to diminish the threat makers and academics is essential to be able while adhering to principles of fundamental to find at least some answers to the many freedoms and civil liberties. Focusing on the unanswered questions. The ICCT expert “who are they?” question not only meeting on Lone Wolves provided that necessitates a great deal of time and opportunity, focusing on the concept of a resources, but may easily lead to ‘ethnic broad strategy with a strong focus on both profiling’ or to pursuing individuals who are interdiction and prevention as well as the role not planning to move from radical beliefs to of human intelligence. radical action. After all, it is extremely difficult

34 Shone, 17 May 2010

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Sources

Artiga, Vic, ‘Lone Wolf Terrorism What We Kushner, H.W., Encyclopedia of Terrorism, Need to Know and What We Need to Do’, Thousand Oaks and London: Sage 2003. September 14-16, 2010, cf: http://www.takresponse.com/index/homelan Lia, Brynjar, ‘ Al-Suri’s Doctrines for d-security/lone-wolf_terrorism.html. Decentralized Jihad Training’, Jamestown Terrorism Monitor, vol. 5 (2007), no. 1. Beam, Louis, ‘Leaderless Resistance’, The Seditionist, Issue 12, 1992, cf: Nationale Coördinator Terrorismebestrijding, http://www.louisbeam.com/leaderless.htm “Individuele bedreigers van publieke personen in Nederland”, 1 July 2010, cf: Clemons, Steve, ‘The Real Problem with http://www.nctb.nl/Images/Rapport%20Indiv “Lone Wolf” Terrorism”, 20 April 2010, cf: iduele%20Bedreigers_tcm91- http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives 288099.pdf?cp=91&cs=25496 /2010/04/the_real_proble Shone, Alex, ‘Countering lone wolf terrorism: COT (ed.), Lone-Wolf Terrorism. Case study sustaining the CONTEST vision’, 17 May for Work Package 3 ‘Citizens and governance 2010, cf: in a knowledge-based society’, TTSRL, July http://www.henryjacksonsociety.org/stories.a 2007, cf: sp?id=1582 http://www.transnationalterrorism.eu/tekst/ publications/Lone-Wolf%20Terrorism.pdf Spaaij, Ramon, ‘The Enigma of Lone Wolf Terrorism: An Assessment’, Studies in Gibbs, Nancy, ‘The Fort Hood Killer: Terrified Conflict and Terrorism, 33:854-870. ... or Terrorist?’, Time Magazine, 11 November 2009, cf: Stewart, Scott and Fred Burton, ‘The Lone www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1 Wolf Disconnect’, 30 January 2008, Stratfor, 938415,00.html#ixzz0zuTD0m74 cf: http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/lone_wolf_di Hamm, Mark, In Bad Company. America’s sconnect Terrorist Underground, Northeastern University Press, 2002. Stewart, Scott and Fred Burton, ‘Lone Wolf Lessons’, 3 june 2009, Stratfor, cf: Hewitt, Christopher, Understanding Terrorism http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20090603_ in America. From the Klan to al Qaeda, lone_wolf_lessons London and New York: Routledge 2003. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, Fooled by Integrated Threat Assessment Center Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in (Canada), ‘Lone-Wolf Attacks: A Developing Life and in the Markets. New York: Random Islamist Extremist Strategy?’, 29 June 2007, House 2005. cf: http://www.nefafoundation.org/miscellaneou Veldhuis, Tinka & Jørgen Staun, Islamist s/FeaturedDocs/ITAC_lonewolves_062007.p Radicalisation: A Root Cause Model. The df Hague: Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael, October 2009. Kaplan, Jeffrey, ‘Leaderless Resistance’, Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 9 (1997), no. 3, pp.80-95.

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