France 2017 elections in perspective , new President of

May 2017 Macron, France’s youngest-ever President, joins the new generation of leaders such as Trudeau and Renzi, and should bring a new political energy to the country On Sunday, May 7th, Emmanuel A fragmented country Macron, 39, was elected President of France with over 65% of the and a lot of scepticism vote. His election as President of For Emmanuel Macron, the hardest part He won his bet by the Republic represents a seismic is yet to come as he will have to overcome overthrowing both moment in France’s political strong resistance to his reforms. France history. has probably never been so fragmented, ruling parties (Socialist demographically, geographically and and Republican) Unknown to the public three sociologically. On the one hand, rural but also by containing years ago, and having only started France, the northeast half of the country his own political party a year ago and blue collar workers have massively one of the strongest ever (En Marche!), he was able to haul supported Marine Le Pen, the defeated populist movements in himself up to the highest level. far-right candidate. On the other hand, the cities, the west-southwest part of the France (both far-left He has literally electrified the country and wealthier citizens have been and far-right) campaign with a true the launch-pad for Emmanuel Macron’s determination to reform France meteoric rise. Moving forward, to and a fresh transpartisan implement his pro-business and pro- approach, bringing together Europe approach, Macron will have to ensure the divide of the country is not different political sensitivities. His balanced social growing and that French people who democratic approach, Macron’s ability to obtain a have been supporting populist, anti- parliamentary majority following establishment and sceptical views don’t and pro-business and the general elections on the 11th feel even more rejected. pro-Europe stance and the 18th of June remains a could lead to an significant unknown factor, as it A vision for optimism unprecedented shift will determine his ability to enact and ambition for France any kind of lasting reform in France. The absence of a clear “I want to bring back the French spirit of conquest”. Macron’s positive and majority would result in a progressive vision for France’s future has significant institutional blockage. profoundly refreshed French politics. In any case, following a campaign After decades of pessimism and agitated by extreme parties, scepticism, this could create a new But he needs to win both momentum and help to keep populism a majority in Parliament Macron now holds a historic away from power. This bold and new in the upcoming responsibility to reconcile and approach has been extremely visible in pacify France’s political scene. A the last run up of the campaign, when June elections and challenge that will have to be met Macron managed to stick to a responsible support in a country that at the risk of paving the way for and thoughtful position in the face of an has mainly voted Marine Le Pen or other populist extremely aggressive Marine Le Pen. He candidates in 2022. kept appealing to people's hopes and not against Le Pen more their fears, gathering support from many than for him different leading figures, including Barack Obama and Wolfgang Schäuble. © Brunswick 2017 | 2 A reformist economic As a reminder, Macron also wants to On security and defence, Emmanuel fight against tax evasion, in particular Macron made it clear that the fight policy but still that of the world’s leading Internet against terrorism would be the companies, embracing political absolute priority of his presidency. protective of citizens initiatives at EU and German levels. He Among the measures announced to Emmanuel Macron’s economic policy is has also pointed out the need to reinforce national security, Macron based on a traditional social- enhance the fight against harmful intends to restore compulsory military democratic European model. Social chemicals, endocrine disruptors, and service, to create 10,000 more police solidarity goes hand in hand with pesticides in order to better protect the positions and to increase defence wealth creation, but he also claims consumer. spending to up to 2% of GDP by 2025. clear ambitions to shake the French On a supranational level, Emmanuel It will be interesting to see whether Macron is in favour of France’s NATO economic conservatism that has Macron will be able to generate any prevailed for several decades. The new membership and wishes to strengthen concerted political impetus at security links with Germany and the President wants to quickly send out a European level to tackle these issues, in UK. political signal showing strong addition to his efforts to rejuvenate economic confidence and enacting the France’s domestic economy. Recently asked what will be his first crucial reforms needed to rejuvenate trip to a foreign country, Macron said France’s economy, stimulate job he will ”visit the French Army troops in growth and revive the European operations abroad”, underscoring his project. A clear European commitment to fight terrorism, inside Over the summer, Macron will address commitment while and outside the country. three urgent areas for reform via Overall, in terms of foreign policy, executive decree: simplifying the maintaining strong Emmanuel Macron seems to be a man employment law, harmonising the links with both the UK of continuity. Although he pension system between the public and acknowledges that Donald Trump’s private sector, and kick-starting social and the USA election has led to a wave of security. The goal is to be able to see During this campaign, Emmanuel uncertainty and a possible reshaping of the first positive outcomes by 2018 and the global equilibrium, Macron to revitalise the job market in France, Macron was one of the only candidates to have waged a campaign that was declared that he values the trans- with a “flexi-security” policy, Atlantic friendship which he hopes to Scandinavian in a number of ways. clearly in favour of the European Union. He advocates a strong Europe maintain. In line with his predecessor, Overall, Macron’s economic policy is capable of protecting its citizens, a goal he opposes any rapprochement with based on the following pillars: he notably wishes to achieve by Russia and backs sanctions against reviving the Franco-German Moscow as long as the Russian • Cutting public spending by €60 relationship. government fails to honour the Minsk billion over five years; accords. The new President hopes to Macron wants to reinforce sovereignty • Cutting 100,000 positions in the conduct firm talks with Vladimir Putin, for Europe in areas of security, civil service; with particular regard to Ukraine and currency/Eurozone, foreign trade, Syria. • Reviving direct State investment in environment and digital. He is numerous sectors of up to €50 particularly insistent on reinforcing billion from 2018; Europe’s security shield to protect continental borders. The newly elected • Lowering corporate tax to 25% President also proposed giving the from 33% (equal to €10 billion in Eurozone its own finance minister, savings for companies); who would act under the jurisdiction of • Decreasing household tax by €10 a Eurozone Parliament, bringing billion to boost consumer spending; together members of national Parliaments of the Eurozone. • Simplifying administrative requirements for small companies.

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“Where is Brigitte?” Emmanuel Macron, a former investment banker and a philosopher Emmanuel Macron, 39, was born in a middle class family in the North of France. After a brilliant elite education, he graduated from Sciences Po and ENA (high civil servants school) and worked for a few years as assistant to the philosopher Paul Ricoeur. In the Ministry of Finance, he worked as a Finance inspector, the most prestigious position in the French administration. He then joined Rothschild & Cie in 2008 where he discovered the private sector. Appointed by François Hollande to his Presidential staff in 2012 as deputy general secretary, he worked two years in the Elysee palace team. Appointed Minister of Economy in Manuel Valls government, he stayed in office two years and resigned in the summer of 2016 to run for President. The challenge of the Parliamentary elections The President-elect’s ability to reform the country will depend directly on the results of Emmanuel Macron asks repeatedly, daily: the June 11 and 18 Parliamentary elections. Once inaugurated next week, he will have “Where is Brigitte?”. His wife, a smart to manage a highly sensitive few weeks in order to send the right signals that will help former teacher and an elegant woman, him win a majority of seats (a minimum of 289 out of 577) in the National Assembly 64, blonde and slender, appears to be the (Lower House of Parliament ). The Prime Minister and Government need endorsement most influential person in his entourage. from the National Assembly. Without a majority, the President will need to either build Even before his unexpected political and rely on a coalition in Parliament or to choose a Prime minister in another party fortune, the extraordinary story of their than his own (so-called “cohabitation”). This is why, depending on the result of this relationship made them seem like election, the President may have to appoint a different Prime Minister by the end of characters in a novel. During the 1990s, June. 15 year-old Emmanuel Macron fell in love with his literature and drama teacher, a Whether he will be able to obtain a clear majority in Parliament with his newly created woman 24 years his senior. The mother party has been questioned. The majority of En Marche! candidates comes from civil of three children – now Emmanuel’s most society and are political newcomers. According to the latest estimates, his candidates ardent supporters – would go on to should be the frontrunners and are projected to win between 249 and 286 marry her former pupil despite the constituencies, close to an absolute majority of 289. scandal in Amiens, a small town in the north of France. Still in his thirties, The delicate choice of his first Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron is a grandfather of With those elections in mind, the new President has to appoint a Prime Minister who is seven children. In the same way that able to both send the right symbolic message (highly competent, able to deal with a put his private life on heavy reformist agenda, able to dialogue with society at large) and to manage a tense public display, Brigitte and Emmanuel electoral period for a few weeks. The rumour mill is rife and potential nominees Macron have graced the cover of more include Gérard Collomb (current socialist Major of Lyon and one of Macron’s first than twenty different celebrity magazines supporters), Jean-Yves Le Drian (current Defence minister and political heavyweight in the past year, with exceptional sales. from the Socialist Party), (head of the IMF and former minister of Economy), Thierry Breton (CEO of group and former minister of Economy), (former president of the WTO), (Republican member of Parliament and unsuccessful candidate in the right-wing primaries), Nicole Notat (former head of leading labor union, CFDT). His choice will, in any event, face intense scrutiny.

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Upcoming For more information contact milestones Brunswick is an Contributors to this note May 14 advisory firm Official inauguration specializing in Jérôme Biscay of Emmanuel Macron critical issues Partner, Head of Office, as President, followed by the appointment of and corporate his Prime minister relations. and first government A global partnership with Nicolas Bouvier Beginning of the 24 offices in 14 countries. campaign for the Founded in 1987, Partner general elections Brunswick has grown (members of the organically, operating as a Lower House of single profit center – Parliament) allowing us to respond seamlessly to our clients’ Olivier Jay needs, wherever they are in Partner the world. The today 30 strong team in Paris was initially set up in 2000 and has been advising Benoît Grange June 11 and 18 both global and local clients First and second round to position them on the Partner of the general elections French market at all levels and with all types of stakeholders. Second Nathalie Baudon fortnight of June Director Government reshuffle or appointment of a new Prime minister and a new government Domitille Harb to take into account the outcome of the general Director elections

July Alice Lorfeuvre Beginning of the Account Director summer parliamentary session and discussions of the first bills to implement Macron’s policy Brunswick Group 69 Boulevard Haussmann 75008 Paris September 24 France Renewal of half the Senate (Upper House + 33 1 53 96 83 83 of Parliament) [email protected] www.BrunswickGroup.com