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ANCHOR REPORT Asean Logistics: Delivering the Last Mile

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ANCHOR REPORT Asean Logistics: Delivering the Last Mile Global Markets Research ANCHOR REPORT Asean logistics: Delivering the last mile Logistics players ride the internet retail tide 6 October 2016 Research analysts Asean remains well behind regional peers when it comes to overall internet retail and last-mile delivery infrastructure. A tripling of Asean ASEAN Transport/Logistics postal volumes by 2020F combined with economies of scale for the more established players should result in even greater earnings growth. Top Ahmad Maghfur Usman - NSM [email protected] regional players are circling too, evidenced by deals from both Japan +603 2027 6892 (Yamato into GD Express) and Korea (CJ Express into Century Logistics). Riddhi Jain - NSFSPL We initiate at Buy on four stocks. SingPost is our top pick, given strong [email protected] earnings growth (three-year CAGR of 21%) driven by logistics and +91 22 67235616 ecommerce fulfilment. LBC Express has a combination of low valuations and strong earnings. GD Express could emerge as a formidable Asean logistics player, on regional expansion moves. At Pos Malaysia we see cost and revenue synergies following the acquisition of KLAS Group. Key themes and analysis in this Anchor Report include: Overview of the Asean postal and courier industries Dynamics of Asean internet retail and consumer behaviour patterns Asean as destination for Japanese / regional investors Production Complete: 2016-10-05 20:35 UTC See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. ASEAN logistics EQUITY: ASEAN TRANSPORT/LOGISTICS Delivering the last mile Global Markets Research 6 October 2016 Riding the internet retail tide Anchor themes Asean’s secular growth story on Catalyst: Online shopping benefiting Asean’s last-mile delivery players. increasing online shopping Asean is still behind the curve when it comes to most things internet-related. penetration presents upside As internet shopping plays catch up with regional peers further north, we earnings potential for last-mile expect postal volumes at Asean courier players to triple by 2020F (giving a delivery players. five-year CAGR of 23%). Improving economies of scale on such volumes mean we forecast higher three- and five-year earnings CAGRs for the four Nomura vs consensus couriers on which we initiate in this report, at 21-43% and 19-30%, Our earnings for Pos Malaysia respectively. and SingPost are well above consensus (by 8% and 30%, North Asia’s thirst for Asean internet players. respectively) as we are more We estimate Asean’s overall online retail sales (both C2C and B2C) will post a bullish on volume upside and five-year CAGR of 34% to hit USD36.1bn by 2020. Such outsized growth has economies of scale potential. not surprisingly sparked interest among the regional internet heavyweights. Alibaba has invested USD1bn for a majority stake in Singapore’s Lazada, and Research analysts Japan’s Softbank is expanding further with Tokopedia (Indonesia’s leading online mall), in which Softbank started investing in 2012. The last-mile delivery ASEAN Transport/Logistics players have not been far behind, with some sizeable acquisitions from both Ahmad Maghfur Usman - NSM Japan (Yamato Holdings bought a strategic stake in GD Express) and Korea [email protected] (CJ Express acquiring a strategic stake in Century Logistics). +603 2027 6892 Riddhi Jain - NSFSPL Action: Bullish view on the sector with all Buys. Singpost as top pick. [email protected] We initiate on the sector with a Bullish view, and four Buy calls. We introduce +91 22 672 35616 a valuation framework to identify whether higher implied P/Es are justified by superior cash ROIC vs WACC spreads. Overall, SingPost is our top pick, given strong earnings growth (three-year CAGR of +21%) driven by logistics and ecommerce fulfilment segments. We note an attractive implied P/E over its cash ROIC-WACC spread (at 2.4x, vs the sector’s median of 2.5x). Investment thesis on other names also compelling. LBC Express offers a compelling combination of both cheap valuations and strong earnings prospects, on the back of the strong macro story in the Philippines. GD Express could emerge as a formidable Asean logistics player, as it embarks on regional expansion, likely into Indonesia, possibly together with its strategic shareholder, Yamato Holdings. We also like Pos Malaysia, as we see cost and revenue synergy opportunities following the acquisition of KLAS Group, a formidable local integrated logistics provider. Our pecking order is SingPost, LBC Express, GD Express and Pos Malaysia. Fig. 1: Stocks for action Company Code Rating Mkt Cap Avg. TO Target Price Upside (USD mn) (USD mn) Price 4-Oct (%) LBC Express LBC PM Buy* 323 0.00 PHP17.05 PHP10.92 56% Singapore Post SPOST SP Buy* 2,361 7.70 SGD2.11 SGD1.50 41% GD Express GDX MK Buy* 584 0.10 MYR2.21 MYR1.74 27% Pos Malaysia POSM MK Buy* 715 1.58 MYR4.85 MYR3.77 29% Source: Bloomberg, Nomura Research, * Initiating coverage See Appendix A-1 for analyst certification, important disclosures and the status of non-US analysts. Nomura | ASEAN logistics 6 October 2016 Contents Executive summary ................................................................................ 3 The pecking order: our fundamental scoring framework ....................... 12 Industry overview ................................................................................. 20 An overview of the postal industry, then and today ............................... 24 Asean’s postal and courier industry ...................................................... 26 Market dynamics .................................................................................. 30 Terminal dues....................................................................................... 33 Fighting for transhipment market share ................................................ 38 How technology is changing landscape ................................................ 39 Robocars and drones… ........................................................................ 45 The current dynamics of Asean retail e-commerce ............................... 47 Asean e-commerce behaviour characteristics ...................................... 58 The Japan angle ................................................................................... 62 Asean offers solid footing for FDIs ........................................................ 65 North Asia’s thirst for Asean’s potential piece of the pie ....................... 68 Cost composition: best to stay focused on a single business structure . 71 Singapore Post ..................................................................................... 74 LBC Express Holdings Inc .................................................................... 87 Pos Malaysia ........................................................................................ 97 GD Express ........................................................................................ 111 Appendix A-1 ...................................................................................... 125 2 Nomura | ASEAN logistics 6 October 2016 Executive summary Asean internet retail outlook Riding on the increasing propensity to spend online, we estimate that Asean’s online retail sales (both C2C and B2C) will show a five-year CAGR of 34% to hit a total of USD36.1bn by 2020. Asean’s B2C retail market is still at its nascent stage, at only 1.2%, vs Japan’s 7.2% and China’s 13.8%, as estimated by Euromonitor (Fig. 3), suggesting further upside growth potential for ecommerce. Fig. 2: Estimated size of internet retail (B2C and C2C) by Nomura (USDbn) Nomura's estimation of internet retail (including C2C) in ASEAN (LHS) (USDbn) % chg y-y (RHS) 40,000 % of internet retail to total retail sales (RHS) 36,155 45% 35,000 40% 30,000 27,811 35% 30% 25,000 20,755 25% 20,000 15,374 20% 15,000 11,140 15% 7,905 10,000 10% 5,000 5% 0 0% 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Source: Nomura research, various news media, Euromonitor As plotted below (Fig. 4), we observed that the frequency of visits to shopping websites in Asean remains relatively low compared to Japan and the US. While China has a high value of ecommerce retail sales relative to total sales (at 13.8%), its frequency of retail site visits per internet user is much lower than in Singapore, given its massive population base. This too suggests more upside, not only for Asean but also China as well, particularly in rural areas. We think China’s higher internet retail penetration rate (at 13.8%) is more likely pushed up by the urban population generating higher GMV per user. Fig. 3: Ecommerce as a percentage of total retail sales Fig. 4: Asean ecommerce is still at its nascent stage Asean has still a lot more room to grow its online retail penetration 12 China 13.8% USA USA 9.2% 10 Japan Japan 7.2% 8 Singapore 4.1% Singapore Thailand 1.6% 6 Indonesia 1.2% internet user internet Indonesia ASEAN ex Sing. 0.7% 4 Thailand Malaysia 1.0% Malaysia Ecommerce sales as a % 2 Vietnam China Vietnam 0.8% per visit site retail of Frequency of retail sales (2015) Philippines Philippines 0.5% 0 0% 5% 10% 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% Ecommerce sales as a % of retail sales Source: Euromonitor, Nomura research Source: Nomura research, Euromonitor, Statista, Similiarweb 3 Nomura | ASEAN logistics 6 October 2016 Fig. 5: Online shopping frequency quadrant Fig. 6: Frequency vs ARPU quadrant 10 1,800 9 USA 1,600 USA 8 Japan 1,400 7 1,200 6 1,000 Japan 5 ARPU ($) ARPU 800 4 Singapore China 600 3 400 2 China Thailand
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