Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47741-3 — the Arab Winter Stephen J

Cambridge University Press 978-1-108-47741-3 — The Arab Winter Stephen J. King Index More Information

Index

al-Abadi, Haider, 271–272, 275–276 Arab League, 173 Abdul-Mahdi, Adil, 272, 276 Arbitration Code (Yemen), 242 Abusahmain, Nouri, 191, 193 al-Assad, Bashar al-Adly, Habib, 133 destruction of national political al-Ahmar, Abdullah, 217–218, 221 community, 288 al-Ahmar clan, 228, 234 economic policies, 287 Al-Awami, Ezzeddine, 193 plans for postwar Syria, Alawi, Iyad, 263 291–293 Alawis (Syria), 285–286 response to protests, 3–4, 25, 289 Algeria, 314 al-Assad, Hafez, 286–288 Ali, Ahmed, 228 Astana Talks, 292 Alliance of Yemeni Tribes, 233 authoritarian breakdown. See also al-Qaeda broken states; democratic condemnation of Islamic State by, consolidation; democratic 10–11 transition; pre–Arab Spring Iraq, 259–260, 267–269 conditions Syria, 290 overview, 2–4 at Tunisian–Libyan border, 66 state-building and, 18 Yemen, 241 supra-state identities and, 16 al-Qaeda afﬁliates Egypt Egypt, 129 overview, 3, 96 Libya, 174 reaction to abuses, 22 al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula social media, 100–101 (AQAP), 227, 233 street protests, 101–102 al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb Iraq, 4 (AQIM), 66, 174, 184, 186 Libya amnesty overview, 3 justice and, 20 Benghazi protests and breakaway, Syria, 292 171–172 Tunisia, 72, 83 Fezzan uprising, 176 Anbar Awakening (Iraq), 267–269 international intervention, Anderson, Lisa, 17 173–174 Anfal mass murders (Iraq), 256–257 Islamist militias, 174 Ansar al-Sharia local brigades and militias, 174 Libya, 174, 184, 186, 194 Misrata uprising, 174 Yemen, 227, 233 Nafusa Mountains uprising, 175 Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), 127 nation- and state-building Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis/Wilayat Sinai attempts, 172–173 (ABM/WS), 128 Qaddaﬁ’s end, 177 Arab Cold War, 217 Syria, 3–4, 288–289

315

316 Index

authoritarian breakdown. (cont.) Iraq, pre-invasion Tunisia bureaucratic capacity, 252–253 overview, 2–3, 30, 35 national unity and Kurdish Gafsa revolts, 34–35 separatists, 255–258 mass protests, 36, 39–41 national unity and Sunni–Shia military’s role, 63 conﬂict, 255, 257–258 organized labor, 34 national unity and US involvement, reaction to abuses, 22 257–259 social media, 36–41 state’s monopoly on use of Yemen, 3, 228–229 violence, 253–254, 258 Zimmerman, Katherine, 236 Iraq, occupation government Autonomous Kurdistan Region, overview, 261 255–256 authoritarian breakdown, 4 CPA and national unity, Baathists (Iraq), 252, 255–257, 261 258–259 Baathists (Syria), 285–288 CPA constitution and national al-Baghdadi, Abu Bakr, 282 unity, 263–264 Bakil Confederation (Yemen), CPA disbanding of military and 213–214, 216, 228 security sector, 262 Bani Walid, Libya, 187 CPA gutting of Iraqi bureaucracy, Barzani, Mustapha, 256 261 Batatu, Hanna, 286 CPA IGC and ethnosectarian al-Beidh, Ali Salim, 220 politics, 262–263 Belaid, Chokri, 49, 64 Jihadis and Sunni–Shia conﬂict, Ben Achour Commission (Tunisia), 42 259–260 Ben Ali, Zine El-Abidine Iraq, Iraqi governments challenges to, 33–34 overview, 264–265 coup by, 62 corruption and incompetency, crony capitalism and, 31–32 274–276 ouster of, 2–3, 41, 63 insurgency, 265–266 politics and, 32–33, 35 ISIS and state-building, 10–11, repression by, 33, 81 271–272 technology development, 38 Maliki government, 269–270 Benghazi, Libya sectarian civil war, 267 attack on US diplomatic outpost, 186 state’s monopoly on use of international intervention, 3, 173 violence, 272–273 Islamists in, 174, 188 state-building challenges, uprising, 171–172 276–277 Ben Jaafar, Mustapha, 45, 52 Sunni Anbar Awakening, 267–269 Bin Laden, Osama, 260 Islamic State/ISIS Bouazizi, Mohamed, 2–3, 22, 30, 36, overview, 1–2, 303 39 Arab nation-state debate and, 16 Bourguiba, Habib, 34, 44, 60–62 atrocities by, 10–11, 278 Brahmi, Mohammed, 49, 52, 64 funding, 280 Bremer, Paul, 261 ideology, 281–283 broken states. See also democratic provision of public services, consolidation; state-building 280–281 attempts reconstitution, 283 overview, 25–26, 249–251 rise and fall of, 271–272, 277–278 Iraq, overview, 251, 276–277 territorial seizures, 278–280

Index 317

Islamic State/ISIS afﬁliates Egypt Egypt, 128 overview, 307–308 Libya, 184 business empire, 97, 124, 141 Tunisia–Libya border, 66–67 dictatorship, 96, 147 Yemen, 233 interference in transitional Syria, overview, 275–284 roadmap, 109 Syria, pre–Arab Spring Tunisia, 60–65 Baathist rule, 285–286 Yemen, 224, 234 bureaucratic capacity, 287 civil war, Libya. See also democratic colonial rule, 284–285 transition, Libya; political pacts, national unity challenges, Libya 286, 288 between militias, 157, 159 state’s monopoly on use of rival national governments, 159, 190 violence, 287 civil war, Syria, 289–291, 293 Syria, Arab Spring and civil war civil war, Yemen (overview), 211–212, beginning of uprising, 3–4, 230, See also democratic 288–289 transition, Yemen plan for reconstitution, 291–293 coalition intervention in Libya, 173 sectarian civil war, 289–291 Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) bureaucratic capacity (Iraq) overview, 18 bureaucratic capacity, 261 Egypt, 129, 135–137 disbanding of military and security Iraq, 251–253, 261, 274–276 sector, 262 Libya, 24, 165, 190 national unity and, 258–259, Syria, 287 262–264 Tunisia, 67–68 rebellion against, 266 Yemen, 235 Committee for National Dialogue Bush, George H. W., 257–258 (Yemen Arab Republic), 218 Bush, George W., 1, 4, 267 competitive politics. See also political pacts Carthage Declaration (Tunisia), national unity and, 15–16 55, 79 state-building and, 17–18 Carthage II Agreement (Tunisia), 58, 79 Congress for the Republic (CPR) Central Bank, Libya, 199–200 (Tunisia), 45–46 Chahed, Youssef constitutions anticorruption ﬁght, 73 Egypt economic policies, 55, 78–79 2011 amendments, 104–105 power struggles, 56–58, 79 2012 version, 109, 117 Chalabi, Ahmed, 263 2014 version, 120–121 Chambers, Paul W., 7–8 2019 amendments, 122, 143, 147 Christian democracy, 9–10, See also Constituent Assembly, 108–109 religion in politics prerevolution, 143 Christian minorities in Egypt, 125–127, SCAF changes to, 114–115 129 Iraq, 263–264 civil–military relations. See also military Libya, 178, 181, 192 pacts Tunisia, 50–51, 53–54, 64, 67, 86 assessment framework, 7–8 Yemen, 220–221, 242 civilian control of military, 7–9 corruption economic transitions and, 14–15 Egypt, 97, 130, 132–135 institutions aiding, 8 Iraq, 274–276

318 Index

corruption (cont.) constitutional referendum, 105 Libya, 167 founding elections, 4–5, 102 Syria, 287 People’s Assembly election, Tunisia, 31–32, 46, 70–73, 81–83 106–107 Yemen, 227 Shura Council election, 107 Croissant, Aurel, 7–8 Iraq cross-ideological coalitions, 43, See also 2018 parliamentary election, 276 political pacts, Egypt; political challenges, 277 pacts, Tunisia; national unity and, 264 secularist–Islamist relations Libya overview, 157–160 al-Dawa Party (Iraq), 263, 267, 270 breakdown of transition, 178 De-Baathiﬁcation (Iraq), 261–263 civil war and, 16 democratic consolidation. See also founding elections, 4–5, 178–179 broken states; military pacts; House of Representatives, 194 nation-state and Weberian-state militias and, 24, 157 pacts; political pacts; national disunity, 24, 157 socioeconomic pacts; NTC roadmap, 178 transitional justice, human Tunisia rights, and rule of law pacts 2014 parliamentary and overview, 5–6 presidential elections, 54 conclusions, 301–303 2018 municipal elections, 56–57, military pacts, 6–9 68 nation-state and Weberian-state pacts Constituent Assembly, 4–5, 42–45 nation-states, 15–17 electoral system, 42 Weberian-states, 17–18 Yemen political pacts, 9–11 overview, 211–213, 244–245 transitional justice, human rights, 1993 parliamentary, 220–221 and rule of law pacts 1997 and 2003 parliamentary, 221 human rights, 21, 23 2006 presidential, 222 judicial reform, 21 civil war (2015), 230 security sector reform, 21–22 civil war (2015) humanitarian transitional and restorative justice, crisis, 211–212 19–20 cost of failure, 25 democratic transition. See also national dialogue process, democratic consolidation; 229–230 military pacts; nation-state and national unity challenges, Weberian-state pacts; political 24, 213 pacts; socioeconomic pacts; post–Arab Spring elections, 4–5, transitional justice, human 16 rights, and rule of law pacts presidential election, 4–5 elections and, 4–5 Saudi intervention, 231–232 national unity and, 15–16 Egypt economic reconciliation law (Tunisia), 2011–2012 parliamentary and 71–73, 82–83 presidential elections, 104 economic transitions. See also 2012 presidential election, 108 socioeconomic pacts 2014 presidential election, 121 approaches to IFIs and, 13–14 2015 parliamentary election, civil–military relations and, 14–15 122–123 developmental state, 12

Index 319

national compromise and consensus Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) in, 14–15 (Egypt), 96, 102, 122, See also private sector, 12 Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt) reforms, 12–15 Free Syrian Army (FSA), 290 social policy and, 13 Free Yemenites movement, 215 Egypt. See under authoritarian Front for the Liberation of Occupied breakdown; democratic South Yemen (FLOSY), 219–220 transition; military pacts; nation- state and Weberian-state pacts; Garana, Zuhair, 134 political pacts; pre–Arab Spring GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) conditions; socioeconomic pacts; Initiative, 3, 229–230, 232, 239, transitional justice, human 241 rights, and rule of law pacts GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) Elbaradei, Muhammed, 120 membership for Yemen, 240 elections. See democratic transition General National Congress (GNC) Ennahdha party (Tunisia) (Libya) 2018 municipal elections, 56 attempts to dissolve, 193–195 Arab Spring early stages, 10 founding elections, 178–179 commitment to democracy Islamists and, 191–193 questioned, 46–47 minorities and, 188 Constituent Assembly elections, 43 ousting of Zeidan, 185 Grand Coalition with Nidaa Tounes, Ghali, Youssef Botrous, 134 54–56, 58, 60, 73 Ghannouchi, Mohammed, 41 ideological divisions within, 47 Ghannouchi, Rachid, 34–35, 45–48, pre–Arab Spring negotiations, 44 51–52 relations with IFIs, 74 Ghonim, Wael, 22, 101 repression of, 35 Government of National Accord Salaﬁs and, 46–50 (Libya), 196–197, 199 Shari’a and, 50–51 GPC (General People’s Congress) Tahya Tounes party and, 57 (Yemen) Troika coalition, 45–51 civil war (1994) and coalition, 221 Essebsi, Beji Caid formation, 218 appointment of son to party head, 56 interim government of national unity, corruption and cronyism, 72, 82 229 ending of coalition government, 57–58 patronage system and, 224 founding of Nidaa Tounes, 52 support for NDC, 237–238 interim government, 42 Gulf War (1990–1991), 257–258 land policies, 74 military relations, 64 Hadi, Abdrabbuh Mansur power-sharing with Ennahdha, 54 election of, 4–5 Ettakatol party (Tunisia), 45–46 ousting of, 212, 230 European Union, 68, 229 power transfer to, 229–230 Ezz, Ahmed, 134 restructuring of military, 234 trust fund for southern Yemen, 236 federalism Haftar, Khalifa national unity and, 16 aims of, 24 Iraq, 263–264, 273 anti-Islamic military campaign, 184, Syria, 291 188 Yemen, 236 attacks on Tripoli, 197 El-Fiqi, Anas, 134 control of oil ports, 199

320 Index

Haftar, Khalifa (cont.) Libya, 197–198 formation of LNSF, 170 Tunisia, 31–32, 74–75 Operation Dignity, 193–195 Imam Ahmad bin Yahya, 216 political machinations, 159, 181 Imam Muhammad al-Badr, 216–217 promise of stability, 190 Imam Yahya bin Husayn bin Tripoli Central Bank and, 200 Muhammad, 215–216 Hamidaddin, Abdullah, 231 IMF (International Monetary Fund). Hamid al-Din imams (North Yemen), See also IFIs (International 214–216 Financial Institutions) Hashid Confederation (North Yemen), Arab suspicions of, 13 213–214, 216, 228, 233–234 Egypt, 131, 138, 141 Hinnebusch, Raymond, 286 Libya, 198 House of Representatives (HOR) Tunisia, 55–56, 69, 75–78 (Tobruk, Libya), 194, 199–200 insurgency in Iraq, 265–266 al-Houthi, Hussein Badr al-Din, international assistance to Iraq, 225–226 275 Houthis (Yemen). See also Zaydis Iran (Yemen) funding of Iraqi Shiite militias, civilian deaths by, 241 271 civil war, 212, 230–231, 245 regional sectarian struggle (Yemen), imamate and, 211 231–232 Iran connections, 240 support to Syria, 284, 290–291 opposition to, 237 Iran–Iraq war (1980s), 253, 255–256 support for, 236–237 Iraq. See under authoritarian wars against Saleh, 225–226 breakdown; broken states; human rights. See also human rights democratic transition; violations nation-state and Weberian-state Arab Spring calls for, 23 pacts democratization and, 21 Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), religious limitations on, 23 261–263, 265 human rights organizations Iraqi National Accord, 263 Tunisia, 33, 53 Iraqi National Congress, 263 human rights violations. See also Islah/YCR (Yemeni Congregation for human rights Reform), 220–221, 228, 237 Egypt, 142–145 Islamic State/ISIS Iraq, 253–254, 256–257 overview, 1–2, 303 Islamic State, 10–11, 278 Arab nation-state debate and, 16 Libya, 201–202 Egypt, 128 Tunisia, 59, 81, 83–84 Iraq Yemen, 221 atrocities by, 10–11, 278 Hussein, Saddam, 4, 252–254 funding, 280 ideology, 281–283 Idris Al-Sanusi (King of Libya), 162, provision of public services, 168–169 280–281 IFIs (International Financial reconstitution, 283 Institutions). See also IMF rise and fall of, 271–272, 277–278 (International Monetary Fund); territorial seizures, 278–280 World Bank Libya, 184 Arab suspicions of, 13–14 Tunisia–Libya border, 66–67 Egypt, 138 Yemen, 233

Index 321

Islamists. See also al-Qaeda; Ennahdha judiciary party (Tunisia); Freedom and overview, 21 Justice Party (FJP) (Egypt); Egypt, 110, 115, 118, 143, 146 Islamic State/ISIS; Muslim Libya, 201–202 Brotherhood (Egypt); Muslim Tunisia, 33, 81, 86 Brotherhood, Libya branch; Yemen, 242–243 Muslim Brotherhood, Syria justice, 32–34, See also amnesty; branch; Muslim Brotherhood, judiciary; transitional justice, Yemen branch; Salafis; Salafis, human rights, and rule of law Takfiri pacts Egypt Justice and Construction Party (JCP) elections, 102, 107–108 (Libya), 178, 191, 203 law proposals by, 140 al-Juwali, Osama, 182 political party formation, 104 twin tolerances, 310 Karman, Tawakkol, 211, 244 Libya Khomeini, Ayatollah, 255 domination of GNC, 192–193 Kuehn, David, 7–8 elections, 179 Kurdish Democratic Party (Iraq), 263 Islamist militias, 181, 184 Kurdish Peshmerga, 264 JCP siding with extremists, Kurdish Regional Government (Iraq), 191–192 262 pre–Arab Spring repression of, Kurdish YPG (Syria), 290 168–170 Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) Syria, 287–288 (Iraq), 256–257 Tunisia Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) pre–Arab Spring repression of, (Iraq), 273 33–35, 62 Kurds in Iraq Salafis and Troika, 47–50 autonomy, 273 twin tolerances, 43–45, 50–51, concessions in constitution, 263 309 conflicts and genocide, 255–257 Yemen fight for Kurdistan, 16 rise in, 220–221, 238 regional government under CPA, violence against innocents, 241 262 Wahhabism/Sunni Salafism, representation in IGC, 263 225 Kuwait, 253

Jadhran, Ibrahim, 184, 199 Lacher, Wolfram, 163 Jamahiriya (state of the masses) Laitin, David, 16 economy, 166–167 Libya. See under authoritarian lack of bureaucratic organization, breakdown; democratic 165 transition; nation-state and political system, 164–165 Weberian-state pacts; political security systems, 165 pacts; pre–Arab Spring transformation to stateless society, conditions; socioeconomic pacts; 163–164 state-building attempts; tribalism, 163, 167–168 transitional justice, human Jebali, Hamadi, 45, 49 rights, and rule of law pacts Jibril, Mahmoud, 178 Libya Dawn, 194–195 JMP (Joint Meeting Parties) (Yemen), Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), 222, 228–229, 237–238 169

322 Index

Libyan National Army (LNA), 170, history of coup threats, 197 62–63 Libyan National Salvation Front political neutrality of military, (LNSF), 170 63–64, 113 Libyan Political Agreement, 195–196 minorities Libya Shield Force, 182–183, 185 Egypt, 125–127, 129 Linz, Juan, 17 Libya, 157, 175–176, 188, 190, 199, 202 Maetig, Ahmed, 193 Yemen, 243 al-Magarief, Mohamed Yousef, 179, Misrata, Libya, uprising, 174 191 Misrata militias (Libya) El-Maghrabi, Ahmed, 134 attacks on minorities, 202 al-Majid, Ali Hassan, 256 challenges to central government, al-Maliki, Nour, 265, 269–271, 280 181–182, 186, 188 Mansour, Adli, 119–120 support for Islamists, 193–194, 203 Marzouki, Moncef, 33, 45–46, 48, 57, turf wars with Zintan, 183 64 vendettas against Qaddaﬁ Mebazza, Fuad, 41 supporters, 186–187 military pacts. See also democratic Mitri, Tarek, 192 consolidation; nation-state and modern state. See nation-state and Weberian-state pacts; political Weberian-state pacts pacts; socioeconomic pacts; Mohsen, Ali, 218, 228, 233 transitional justice, human Morsi, Mohamed rights, and rule of law pacts constitutional declaration, 110–111, democratic consolidation and, 6–9 116–118 conclusions, 307–308 election, 4–5, 108 Egypt ﬁght against terrorists, 128 overview, 96, 111–112 judiciary reform attempts, 146 constitutional declarations, minorities and, 126 114–115 national dialogue, 138 dissolution of parliament, 115 power-sharing, 24 government formation, 116, Mubarak, Hosni 119–120 challenges to, 98–100 leadership selection, 122–123 corruption conviction, 135 military role in democratic powers, 98 transition, 102 repression by, 98, 100, 142–144 new constitution (2014), 120–121 resignation, 3, 102 overthrow of Morsi, 111, 119 Muslim Brotherhood (Egypt) policy- and decision-making, 124 ambivalence toward democracy, power struggle with Morsi, 24, 96, 114 116–118 Arab Spring early stages, 10 presidential elections, 116 blame for terrorist attack, 129 rule under Sisi, 121–122 election wins, 102 SCAF ambivalence to democracy, military and, 117 113 minorities and, 126 Tunisia organizational advantage, 104 civil–military relations in post-coup crackdown on, constitution, 64–65 96, 143 history of civil–military relations, shadow government, 100 60–62 transition roadmap, 104

Index 323

Muslim Brotherhood, Libya branch, national unity. See also broken states; 169, 178–179, 192, 194 nation-state and Weberian-state Muslim Brotherhood, Syria branch, pacts 287–288 overview, 15–16 Muslim Brotherhood, Yemen branch, conclusions, 306–307 215, 224 Egypt, 96, 124–127 Muslim democracy. See under religion Libya, 24, 157, 190 in politics Tunisia, 16, 65 Mutawakkilite Kingdom of Yemen, Yemen, 24, 230, 236 214–216 nation-state and Weberian-state pacts. See also broken states; Nafusa Mountains (Libya), 175 democratic consolidation; Nasser, Gamal Abdel, 217, 219, 285 military pacts; political pacts; National Constituent Assembly (NCA) socioeconomic pacts; (Tunisia), 4–5, 42–45, 52, See transitional justice, human also under constitutions rights, and rule of law pacts national defense. See also civil–military overview, 15–18 relations; military pacts conclusions, 303–306 civil–military relations and, 8 Egypt Tunisia, 62 overview, 96, 124, 130 National Democratic Party (NDP) conclusions, 305 (Egypt), 98, 103 bureaucratic capacity, 129 National Dialogue Conference (NDC) national unity, 96, 124–127 (Yemen) state’s monopoly on use of challenges addressed by, violence, 127–129 211–212 tax collection apparatus, 130 failure of, 231, 244 Iraq, 305–306 good governance, 235 Libya Houthi conﬂict, 236–237 overview, 180–181 military reform, 234 conclusions, 303–304, 306 popular rejection of, 238 assassinations, 185 state-building attempts, 230 attack on US diplomatic outpost, Sustainable Development Working 186 Group, 238–240 challenges to central government, talks with southern secessionists, 181, 185–186 236 federalist militias, 184 National Dialogue Quartet (Tunisia), history as nation-state, 160–163 53 Islamist extremists, 188 National Forces Alliance (NFA) Islamist militias, 184 (Libya), 4–5, 178–179, 191–192 machinations of Haftar, 184 National Transitional Council (NTC) national unity, 24, 157, 190 (Libya) parallel army, 182–183 creation of hybrid security sector, parallel national security forces, 182–183 183 creation of Supreme Security Council, security situation, 159 183 state’s monopoly on use of formation, 172–173 violence, 158–159 move to Tripoli, 177 turf wars, 183 roadmap to democratic transition, vendettas between rebels and 178 Qaddaﬁ supporters, 187–188

324 Index

nation-state and Weberian-state pacts. political pacts. See also democratic (cont.) consolidation; military pacts; Tunisia nation-state and Weberian-state overview, 65, 69 pacts; socioeconomic pacts; conclusions, 305 transitional justice, human bureaucratic capacity, 67–68 rights, and rule of law pacts national unity, 16, 65 overview, 9–11 state’s monopoly on use of conclusions, 308–310 violence, 66–67 Egypt tax collection apparatus, 69 overview, 24, 146–147 Yemen. See also under state-building coalitions and electoral results, attempts 105–108 overview, 213, 232 Constituent Assembly formation, conclusions, 304–306 108–109 bureaucratic capacity, 235 constitution of 2012, 109 Houthi conﬂict, 236–237 Islamist–secularist cooperation, 102 national unity challenges, 24, 230 Islamist–secularist polarization national unity challenges and and coup, 96, 102–103, federalism, 236 110–111, 146, 310 secessionist movement in South military’s role in democratic Yemen, 236 transition, 102, 109 state’s monopoly on use of Morsi’s constitutional declaration, violence, 232–235 110–111 NATO intervention in Libya, national unity, 16 174, 177 transition pace, 104–105 Nazif, Ahmed, 133 twin tolerations, 24, 106, 110–111 Nidaa Tounes party (Tunisia) Libya 2014 parliamentary elections, 54 overview, 189–190 2018 municipal elections, 56 NFA–Islamic polarization, 179, coalition with Ennahdha, 54–56, 58, 189, 191 60, 73 rival governments, 191–193, corruption and, 81 195–197 economic elites and, 73 rival militias, 193–195 founding of, 52 Tunisia fractures in, 55–58 overview, 43 land policies, 74 Ben Achour Commission, 42 relations with IFIs, 74 consensus government weaknesses, NLF (National Liberation Front) (South 59–60 Yemen), 219–220 consensus in constitution, 51 Nour Party (Egypt), 107, 120 Constituent Assembly election, 4–5, 42–45 O’Donnell, Guillermo, 6, 14–15 Constituent Assembly suspension, Operation Iraqi Freedom, 251, 253 52 democratic progress, threats to, 30, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (Iraq), 263 87 PDRY (People’s Democratic Republic democratization success, 23, 87 of Yemen), 220 government–public relations, 41–42 Perthes, Volker, 286 national unity, 16 Political Isolation Law (PIL) (Libya), Nidaa Tounes–Ennahdha 191, 202–203 coalition, 54–56, 58, 60

Index 325

political impasse and public Qaddafi, Muammar intervention, 53 corruption, 166–167 secularist–Islamist relations, death, 177 44–45, 48–50, 63–64, 308–310 economic policies, 197 secular-oriented parties, 52 ideology, 24, 158, 163 Shari’a in political system, 50–51 Islamists and, 168–170 Troika coalition, 45–51 Jamahiriya and, 164–166 twin tolerations, 43–44, 50–52 manipulation of tribalism, 167–168 Yemen, 237–238 ousting of, 3 Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) threats to Tunisia, 62 (Iraq), 271–273 Qaddafi, Saif al-Islam, 167, 177, 186 pre–Arab Spring conditions Qaddahfa tribe (Libya), 165, 167 Egypt Qatar, 236, 241 crony capitalism, 97 economic conditions, 130, 132 Rachid, Rachid Mohamed, 134 Islamist opposition, 99–100 RCD (Constitutional Democratic Rally) Kefaya movement, 98–99 (Tunisia), 32–33, 42 labor strikes and protests, 99 reconciliation, national. See transitional politics, 98 justice, human rights, and rule of Libya. See also Jamahiriya (state of law pact the masses) religion in politics. See also Islamists; coup attempts against Qaddafi, names of political parties; 168, 170 secularist–Islamist relations; history as nation-state, 160–163 Sharia (Islamic law) Islamist opposition, 168–170 blasphemy laws (Tunisia), 51 other opposition, 170–171 Christian democracy, 9–10 repression, 158 democracy and, 9–10 Syria Muslim democracy, 10, 23 Baathist rule, 285–286 Muslim democratic parties, 10 bureaucratic capacity, 287 Republican Guard (Yemen), 228, national unity challenges, 234 286, 288 restorative justice. See transitional state’s monopoly on use of justice, human rights, and rule of violence, 287 law pact Tunisia Revolutionary Command Council economy, 31–32 (RCC) (Libya), 164, 168 election rigging, 33 Rosiny, Stephan, 279 human rights organizations, 33 rule of law. See transitional justice, Islamists, 10, 34–35 human rights, and rule of law labor organizations, 34–35 pact repression, 33, 35, 81 Russia, 284, 290–292 Yemen Rustow, Dankwart, 15 economy, 222–223 military’s role in economy, 224 sadah (Yemen), 216, 224–226 opposition JMP formed, 222 al-Sadr, Baqir, 255 opposition sources, 225–227 al-Sadr, Muqtada, 266, 276 patronage system, 224–225 Said, Khaled, 22, 101 politics, 222 Salafis. See also Islamists unification, civil war, and coalition overview, 10–11 government (1994), 220–221 conclusions, 303

326 Index

Salafis. (cont.) secularist–Islamist relations Egypt Egypt attacks by, 127–129 Constituent Assembly, 108–109 elections, 107 polarization and coup, 96, pre–Arab Spring opposition, 99 102–103, 110–111, 146 Libya short-lived cooperation, 102 attacks on Sufi buildings, 188 transition pace, 104–105 hostility toward democracy, 157, Libya 174 dissolution of GNC, 193–195 origins, 170 Libyan Political Agreement, Tunisia 195–196 attacks by, 64, 66–67 NFA–JCP rift, 179, 189, 191 Troika and, 47–50 rival governments, 191–193, Yemen 195–197 attacks on by US drones, 227 Tunisia patronage system and, 224 Grand Coalition, 54–56, 58, 60, transitional government and, 238 73 Salafis, Takfiri. See also Islamic State/ Troika coalition, 45–51 ISIS; Islamists; Salafis Yemen, 237 Iraq, 10–11, 251 secularists. See also cross-ideological Islamic State/ISIS, 278, 281, 283 coalitions; political pacts, Egypt; Saleh, Ali Abdullah political pacts, Tunisia; appointment to presidency, 218 secularist–Islamist relations challenges to, 225–227 Egypt, 110–111, 119 coming to power, 213 Tunisia, 52, 54 corruption, 235 security sector cronyism, 220, 223–225 civil–military relations and, 8 death, 245 Egypt, 98, 100, 144–145 immunity following resignation, 229, Iraq, 254, 270 241 Libya, 165, 189 judiciary, 242 Tunisia, 21–22, 61, 81, 85–86 loss of election, 3–5 Yemen, 241–242 security sector, 241 separation of powers, judiciary and. See Salem, Hussein, 134 judiciary al-Sallal, Abdullah, 216–217 al-Serraj, Faiez, 196 As-Sanusi, Muhammad ibn, 161 Shamlan, Faisal Bin, 222 Sanussiya (Libya), 161–162, 167 Sharia (Islamic law). See also religion in Saudi Arabia, 211, 240–241, 245 politics SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Egypt, 107, 109, 120 Forces) (Egypt), 102 Islamic State, 277–278 constitutional revision, 104, 114–115 Libya, 168, 179 government formation, 116 Tunisia, 50–51 Maspero Massacre investigation, 126 Yemen, 221, 242–243 overthrow of Morsi, 119 El-Sheikh, Osama, 134 transition process, 102, 113 Shia–Sunni relations in Iraq, 255, Schmitter, Philippe C., 6, 14–15 259–260, 264, 267–270 sectarian conflicts Shiite militias against ISIS, 271 Iraq, 255, 257–260, 262–263, 267 El-Sisi, Abdel Fattah Yemen, 231–232 authoritarian crackdown, 142–143 sectarianism in Syria, 286, 288–291 bureaucracy, 136

Index 327

dictatorship, 96, 147 macroeconomic stabilization, economy and, 131 76–77 head of SCAF, 110, 117 private sector reform, 72–74 minorities and, 127 relations with IFIs, 74–75 national dialogue, 138 social dialogue, 77–79 overthrow of Morsi, 119–120 social policy, 75–76 reversal of reform efforts, 143, 146 Yemen terrorist attacks and, 128 GCC membership, 240 social media Sustainable Development Working Egypt, 99–101 Group, 238–240 Tunisia, 36–41 South Africa, restorative justice in, 20 socioeconomic pacts. See also Southern Movement (Hirak) (Yemen), democratic consolidation; 226–227, 234, 236, 245 economic transitions; military South Korea, civilian control of military pacts; nation-state and in, 8 Weberian-state pacts; political state-building attempts. See also broken pacts; transitional justice, states; national unity human rights, and rule of law overview, 17–18 pacts Iraq, 251, 276–277 overview, 12–15 Libya conclusions, 311–312 nation- and state-building Egypt attempts, 172–173 overview, 130–131 Ottoman period, 160–161 conclusions, 312 under Qaddaﬁ, 163 anticorruption reforms, 134–135 Sanussiya (Senussi Brotherhood), bureaucracy reform, 135–137 161–162 corruption investigations, 132–134 under King Idris al-Sanusi, 162 economy, 141–142 Yemen, North labor protests and strikes, 139–140 overview, 213 military’s role in economy, 141 coup and civil war (1962–1970), national dialogue, 138 217 post–Arab Spring conditions, 132, Imamate as tribal state, 214 139 Imamate founding, 213–214 pre–Arab Spring conditions, 130, Imamate Hamid al-Din dynasty, 132 214–216 social policy, 137–138 Saleh’s early presidency, 218 subsidy cuts, 141 Yemen Arab Republic declared, tourism losses, 140 216 unemployment, 139 Yemen, South, 218–220 Libya Stepan, Alfred, 11, 17 overview, 197–198 Stevens, Christopher, 186 management of oil revenues, Sudan, 241, 314 199–200 Sunni–Shia relations in Iraq, 255, productive capacity of oil, 198–199 259–260, 264, 267–270 Tunisia Sunni tribal militias (Iraq) against overview, 70, 80, 87 al-Qaeda, 267–269 conclusions, 311–312 suprastate identities, 16, See also Kurds bargaining rights, 76, 79 in Iraq corruption control and Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution development, 45, 70–72 in Iraq (SCIRI), 263, 267, 270

328 Index

Supreme Security Council (SSC) threats to democratic (Libya), 183 consolidation, 87 Sykes-Picot Agreement, 251, 285 transitional justice curtailment, Syria. See under authoritarian 84–85 breakdown; broken states; Yemen pre–Arab Spring conditions balance between justice and reconciliation, 241 Tahya Tounes party (Tunisia), 57–58, human rights, 243–244 73–74 judiciary reforms needed, 242–243 Takfiri Salafis. See also Islamic security sector reforms, 241–242 State/ISIS; Islamists; Salafis violence against innocents, 241 Iraq, 10–11, 251 Truth and Dignity Commission (TDC) Islamic State/ISIS, 278, 281, 283 (Tunisia), 81–86 Terbil, Fathi, 22, 171 Tunisia. See under authoritarian al-Thinni, Abdallah, 193–194 breakdown; democratic transitional justice, human rights, and transition; military pacts; nation- rule of law pacts. See also state and Weberian-state pacts; democratic consolidation; political pacts; pre–Arab Spring military pacts; nation-state and conditions; socioeconomic pacts; Weberian-state pacts; political transitional justice, human pacts; socioeconomic pacts rights, and rule of law pacts human rights, 21, 23 Tunisian Confederation of Industry, judicial reform, 21 Trade, and Handicrafts security sector reform, 21–22 (UTICA), 53, 79 transitional and restorative justice, Tunisian General Labor Union (UGTT). 19–20 See UGTT (Tunisian General conclusions, 312–313 Labor Union) Egypt Tutu, Desmond, 20 overview, 96 twin tolerations. See also human rights violations, 142–145 secularist–Islamist relations judiciary reform attempts, 146 overview, 11 press freedom, 144 Egypt, 24, 106, 110–111, 146 rule of law absence, 143 Libya, 189, 191 Libya Tunisia, 43–44, 50–52, 106 overview, 200–201, 203 Yemen, 237 human rights violations, 201–202 need for judicial reforms, UGTT (Tunisian General Labor Union) 201–202 bargaining, 76, 79 obstacles to reconciliation, 201 Carthage II talks, 58 Political Isolation Law, 191, Gafsa revolts, 35 202–203 history of, 34 security needs, 202 National Dialogue Quartet, 53 Tunisia strikes by, 55, 62 overview, 80 unemployment, democratic arrests, 85–86 consolidation and Constitutional Court, 86 overview, 13 financial crimes, 81–83 Egypt, 139 human rights, 87 Libya, 197 human rights crimes, 83–84 Tunisia, 32, 70, 75–76 prerevolt police state, 81 United Arab Emirates, 245

Index 329

United Arab Republic, 285 World Bank. See also IFIs (International United Kingdom, 218–220 Financial Institutions) United Nations Arab suspicions of, 13 Libya, 3, 173 Egypt, 131 Yemen, 192, 211, 229, 236, 245 Libya, 198 United States Embassy attacks, 48, 186 Tunisia, 55, 69, 75, 78 United States in Iraq Tunisia reports, 31–32 communal conﬂicts post–Gulf War, 257–258 Yahya b. al-Husayn al-Rassi, 213 cost, 4, 276 Yahyaoui, Zouhair (a.k.a. Ettounsi), monopoly on use of violence, 253 37 national unity and state capacity, Yemen. See under authoritarian 251, 258–259 breakdown; democratic partial withdrawal, 269 transition; nation-state and training of Iraqi army, 271 Weberian-state pacts; political US forces and Sunni tribes against al- pacts; pre–Arab Spring Qaeda, 267–269 conditions; socioeconomic pacts; United States interventions state-building attempts; Libya, 173 transitional justice, human Yemen, 227, 231, 241 rights, and rule of law pacts USAID (US Agency for International Younis, Abdul Fattah, 172 Development), 69 YSP (Yemeni Socialist Party), 219–221, US special forces, 67 237 UTICA (Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade, and al-Zarqawi, Abu Musab, 259–260, Handicrafts), 53, 79 267–268, 283 al-Zawahiri, Ayman, 99, 174, 260 Van Dam, Nicolas, 286 Zaydis (Yemen), 213, 216–217, violence, state’s monopoly on use of 225–226, 240, See also Houthis Egypt, 127–129 (Yemen) Iraq, 253–254, 264, 270, 272–273 Zeidan, Ali, 179, 185, 193 Tunisia, 48–50, 55, 62, 66–67 Zintan militia (Libya) Yemen, 227, 233 attacks on minorities, 202 challenges to central government, Wafd Party (Egypt), 106 177, 181, 186 Weber, Max, 17 support for secularists, 193–194 Weberian state characteristics, support for Zeidan, 185 17–18, See also broken states; tribal hostilities, 187 nation-state and Weberian-state turf wars with Misrata, 183 pacts uprising, 177 Wolf, Siefried O., 7–8 Zintan uprising (Libya), 175