Monthly Report On 1st March, 2021 SPICES MMARCHARCH 2019 2021

Price range: 7900-9000 (Rs./ Quintal) Weekly Price movement of Turmeric Futures Factors to watch Ÿ Prospects of lower output Ÿ Crop damage reports Ÿ Lower yields Ÿ Higher export demand from Gulf and Ÿ Stockiest actively buying

Source: Reuters & SMC Research Fundamental factors: • Prices have topped ₹9,000 in private markets in . Prices in Nizamabad are currently at ₹8,700 a quintal. The sharp rise in turmeric prices are due to fears of crop damage in the Nizamabad region of Andhra Pradesh and also Maharashtra. • According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare data, turmeric prices increased to ₹8,294 a quintal for the finger variety on Friday at Erode in as against ₹6,250 on February 2. Prices of the bulb variety increased to ₹7,649 from ₹5,994 during the same period. • The crop is feared to be 20-25 per cent lower in the Nizamabad region as unseasonal rains hit the growing regions last year. In Maharashtra, the market participants claim that the crop is 10-40 per cent lower. • On the demand side, there had been good demand from Bangladesh and Gulf destinations. • Initailly, turmeric futures April contract is expected to witness some minor correction as in the present scenario, export prospects of turmeric have been affected following a steady rise in its prices since the beginning of this month across various primary agricultural markets in the country. However, as there is shortage on the supply side and demand is higher, it shall take support near 7900. Bargain buying shall again fuel the rally towards 9000. • The mandis are flooded with farmers from across Tamil Nadu and Karnataka as they want to sell their produce at the current market price. Considering the high demand, cultivators hope that this price would continue for a few more months. The source of the bullishness is firstly, the area under cultivation has been reduced by half. Secondly, there’s a huge demand for Erode turmeric from Bangladesh, Singapore, Malaysia, US, UK and the Gulf countries. Erode-based merchants are transporting to Nizamabad in Telangana, from where it is being forwarded to Bangladesh on Kisan Rail. Weekly Spot Price Chart Heat map & Seasonal table of Turmeric futures

1 JEERA

Price range: 13200-14400 (Rs./ Quintal) Weekly Price movement of Jeera Futures Factors to watch Ÿ Estimates of lower output in Gujarat Ÿ Estimates of higher exports Ÿ Reducing moisture, may attract domestic demand Ÿ Buying interest developing with new arrivals to begin soon Ÿ Overall, uptrend in spices counters

Source: Reuters & SMC Research Fundamental factors:

• Jeera futures (Mar) is waiting to surpass the 200 days moving average of 13800, after which we can see higher levels of 14000-14400. The near term support is around 13200.

• On the supply side, compared to last year, cumin production in the country is likely to remain 10 to 15% lower. Last year, cumin production was around 92 lakh bags (55 kg per bag) in . This season, it would be around 85 to 90 lakh bags due to early exit of winter in the cumin-growing areas of Gujarat.

• As per data from the state agriculture department, cumin sowing in Gujarat has gone down to 4.69 lakh hectares from last season’s 4.88 lakh hectares.

• On the spot, the demand for holi and Ramadan are keenly watched and the market awaits better quality spice with lower moisture content.

• It is reported that some forward bookings have started to take place in anticipation of reduction in moisture content of the new arrivals, amid rising temperature in the producing regions.

• Traders reveal that the new arrivals currently have a moisture content of over 12%, which is likely to reduce in a fortnight’s time.

• It is being estimated that cumin exports from India are likely to cross 2 lakh tonne by the end of the current season, in the next couple of months.

Weekly Spot Price Chart Heat map & Seasonal table of Jeera futures

2 DHANIYA

Price range: 6800-8500 (Rs./ Quintal) Weekly Price movement of Dhaniya Futures Factors to watch

Ÿ Local as well as from different states the spice millers are active in Rajasthan mandis

Ÿ Lower the moisture content attracting buyers

Ÿ Export demand coming from Gulf

Ÿ Stockiest actively buying

Source: Reuters & SMC Research Fundamental factors: • The trend of dhaniya futures (Apr) is bullish and can see 8000-8500, taking support near 7000-6800 levels in days to come. • Local spice millers are active in Rajasthan mandis aiding price gains in Black, Eagle, Badami and Scooter variety. • Spice millers from U.P, Delhi, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have been the active buyers at Rajasthan mandis. • At Ramganj mandi, new coriander was quoted between Rs 4300-4500/Quintal on the lower side and Rs 5850-6000/Quintal on the higher side. • Exporters crowded the mandis of Ramganj and Kota mandis. • Rising temperature and clear skies are helping lower the moisture content in coriander. • New crop supplies reported moisture content of 8-11%. • Reduced moisture content is attracting exporters exceedingly. Most of the mandis are experiencing robust buying interest due to which demand beat arrivals in the markets.

Weekly Spot Price Chart Heat map & Seasonal table of Dhaniya futures

3 Vandana Bharti (AVP - Commodity Research) Boardline : 011-30111000 Extn: 625 [email protected] Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Associate (Agro) Boardline : 011-30111000 Extn: 674 [email protected] E-mail: [email protected]

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