PEACE & SECURITY REPORT

TUNISIA CONFLICT INSIGHTS APRIL 2021

The purpose of this report is to provide analysis and recommendations to national, regional and continental decision makers in the implementation of peace and security-related instruments. The opinions expressed in this report are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institute for Peace and Security Studies. www.ipss-addis.org/publications

CONTENTS

SITUATION ANALYSIS 2

CAUSES OF THE CONFLICT 3

ACTORS 5

CONFLICT DYNAMICS 7

CURRENT RESPONSE ASSESSMENT 8

SCENARIOS 9

STRATEGIC OPTIONS 10

REFERENCES 11

CONFLICT TIMELINE 12

CONTRIBUTORS

Nejmeddine Aloui (Author) Dr. Mesfin Gebremichael (Editor in Chief) Cynthia Happi (Associate Editor)

© 2021 Institute For Peace And Security Studies | Addis Ababa University. All Rights Reserved. Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Conflict Insights Report 2 11.71M SITUATION ANALYSIS FIGURE 1.COUNTRY PROFILEANDDEMOGRAPHICS i UNDP, Inequality-Adjusted HDI,available at http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/download-data.Consulted December 21st, 2020. MEDITERRANEAN SEA ALGERIA was ratified 2014. inJanuary government was nominated constitution untilthenew office 2011.Atransitional on14January to fleethe country broke forced outandeventually President BenAlioutof bloodless coup andinDecember 2010,apopularuprising El Abidine Ben Ali removed H. Bourguiba from office in a two majorpolitical changes: in1987,PrimeMinister Zine president, HabibBourguiba. Since then,Tunisia hasseen state undertheruleofapolitical classledby thefirst Tunisia engaged insignificant reforms to create amodern After independence from France in1956, the of POPULATION NEIGHBOURS RANK: 91/189 INDEX: 0.739 75.4 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX(HDI) LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YRS) successful political democratic transition. out ofthecountry. Thesefactors can jeopardize Tunisia’s spreading fear, instability andtheflightofinvestments in neighbouringLibya, have become themainfactors for and religious extremism, with repercussions of the war reforms and issuingrelevant laws.Besides, terrorism obstructed the work ofsuccessive governments inmaking commodities. Political division deepened the crisis since it purchasing power intheface ofriseintheprices ofbasic high unemployment rate anddeterioration ofcitizens’ is still facing burdens ofeconomic crisisreflected in more respectful of human rights and freedoms, Tunisia the adoption constitution ofanew andlawsthat are Despite the success of the democratic transition and I $3, 447.51 (2018) UMA GDP PERCAPITA RECS 17:15 mists-travails-in-tunisia-pub-54311 consulted September 25th2020, at paper inhttps://carnegieendowment.org/2014/01/27/in-crossfire-isla- Tunisia, Carnegie Endowment for international peace, 17th2014, January 2 translation) ma-tv-condamne-a-une-amende_1695045_1466522.html (personal www.lemonde.fr/tunisie/article/2012/05/03/tunisie-le-patron-de-ness TV condamné àuneamende,published May3rd, 2012,availableat https:// 1 violent phrases andhate speech. continued especiallyviasocial mediawithfake news, accuse secularists ofexclusion. Thissituation has secularists with regard to individual rights. Islamists this idea haspersisted causing fears onthepart ofthe and misinformed2,” Even years after the revolution, symbols to exploit thegullibilityofpoor, uneducated, “dangerous reactionaries, who manipulated religious Islamists were portrayed by theformer regimes as During thedecades preceding the2011revolution, media andontheground. religious rights becoming anissueofdebate onsocial struggles are fuelledby tensions between individualand disturbance of public order1” in an environment where owner was condemned for “violation ofgood morales and the Saint because there was a representation of God. The movie, Persepolis, that Islamists considered a violation of TV station threatened because ofthebroadcasting ofa channel was threatened, hishouseburneddown andthe of Salafism.On7October 2011,anowner ofaprivate TV different stages ofthetransition, especiallywiththerise divisions were asource ofunrest andtension through the led to tensions andconfrontations. Theideological law andstatus ofwomen. Manytimes,thisantagonism on issueslike religion ofthestate, application oftheIslamic between theNahdhaparty, Islamic,andseculardemocrats drafting the constitution. There especially was arift After the thisschism revolution, reached climaxwhile gender equality. Zitouna Mosqueonissuessuchaswomen’s rights and communities composed mainlyofthoseeducated inthe (Constitutional) Party, secular, andpro-Islamic-rule was adivisionbetween therulingSocialist Destourian earlystruggles. as the country’s As independence, there divisions that impact thedynamicsofsocialandpolitical The political scene inTunisia ismarked by deep among PoliticalActors Division andAntagonism CAUSES OFTHECONFLICT Anouar Boukhares. IntheCross-Fire: Islamist’s travails in Le Monde,Tunisie, Procès Persepolis :lepatron deNessma - unrest inthesouth. operators have proved that were they involved insocial fact, investigations arrested withthenewly economic these operators have political and media wings,in liquidity can now break up a party.6” Many among longer thecase. Aneconomic operator withabundant powerful butwe hadtheupperhand.Today, that isno “From thebusinessnetworks 2011-2015,we knew were a former adviser to thegovernment presidency observed, limited thegovernment’s capacity to fightcorruption. As to bank financing.Thissituation blocked reforms and conflict onthekey positionsinadministration andaccess mainly) created apolarized businessworld leading to a class, issued from the northand east (thecoastal region social life. Thecompetition withthetraditional economic after the has revolution gained power inthepolitical and composed of barons of informal economy has emerged In theseregions, generation anew ofentrepreneurs and phosphates was negatively affected. aresult, domestic As productiondevelopment. ofoil,gas the government to asunable(orunwilling) promote local and west where ofthecountry thepopulation perceives and confrontations withpolice especiallyinthesouth to employment are recurrent in Tunisia, with roadblocks Therefore, demonstrations andprotests for equalaccess youths andthecapacity oftheprivate sector islimited. efforts, could not absorbthehighnumberofunemployed (50%). Thepublicsector, despite thegovernment’s (32%).5 Ininterior (non-coastal) regions higher itiseven (12.5%),4 butitisthehighest for youth university graduates Unemployment ishigherfor women (23%)3thanfor men to tackle thecountry’s acute problems. partisan bickering have limited thegovernment’s capacity and theimpacts ofCOVID-19 pandemic, withtheprotracted university graduates, economic slowdown, corruption, worsened. Highyouth especiallyamong unemployment, protests have not changed; someindicators have even A decade after the thegrievancesrevolution, driving Socio-economic Factors ism-tunisia north-africa/tunisia/177-blocked-transition-corruption-and-regional- 10 Mai2017,inhttps://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/ and Regionalism inTunisia, Report No. 117MiddleEast and NorthAfrica 6 5 4 consultedicoutlook.org/tunisia/ September 30th,2020. 3 International CrisisGroup, Blocked Transition: Corruption Ibid Ibid African Economic inhttps://www.africaneconom Outlook, - 3 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 4 were prevented from travelling to joinJihadist groups9. Prime Minister announced in2015that 15,000Tunisians 5,000; manyare inleadership positions.TheTunisian such asLibya, Syria,Iraq, Yemen andMalito bemore than estimates thenumberofTunisian fighters inconflict zones Office oftheHighCommissioner for HumanRights8 50,000 SalafiJihadists inTunisia7. TheUnited Nations Ghannouchi, a prominent Jihadist, there are more than werethey growing innumber. Infact, according to Bilel insurgent groups, investigations andresearch proved that Despite thelackofofficial data aboutthesize ofthese gunned down, 30ofwhomwere British. a coastal tourist resort (June 2015) where 38 people were people dead, including 21foreign tourists andinSousse, were thoseinBardo Museum(March 2015)that saw23 security forces andthearmy, butthemost tragic attacks 2013. Moreover, several attacks were perpetrated against and MohamedBrahmi, anoppositionMP, on25July ,anoppositionleader, 2013 on6February a result, Tunisia experienced two political assassinations: target astheprimary who served ofthejihadist groups. As especiallyamongtheunemployeddisillusionment, youth expectations unmet andcreated ageneral feeling of fractures were neglected. This left the population’s and constitutional concerns whilethesocio-economic In post-revolution Tunisia, prioritywas given to political disenchanted youth. mainstream mediaandsocialto attract the regions andareas around thecapital, . used They their ideas andrecruit members especiallyinpoor new vacuum that theSalafist groups exploited to promote After the fall ofBenAli’s regime, there was asecurity Jihadist Violence Religious Extremismand escalation oftensions intheinterior (non-coastal) regions. especially amongtheyouth. Thesefactors ledto an and increasing poverty (15.2%according levels to INS), Institute ofStatistics-INS), risinginformal sector activities inflation (5.7%inOctober 2020,according to theNational of thesociety. Theseincluderegional disparity, growing grievances and disillusionment among a large proportion a numberofsocio-economic challenges that maintain in unemployment post-revolution levels, Tunisia isfacing In additionto theeconomic downturn andtheincrease Carnegie-mec.org. pp10. for Jihad:Radicalization inTunisia, Carnegie MiddleEast Centre (2015), 9 es/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=16219&LangID=E to 8July, 2015,available at https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pag- Working Group ontheUse ofMercenaries onits officialvisit to Tunisia – 1 8 the Threat Posed by Tunisian Foreign Fighters, 2018. Ikbelloumi (MBA),TheTunisian Institute for Strategic Studies, Assessing 7 Retrieved from Georges Fahmi- Hamza Meddeb, Market findingsby theUnited UNHCHR,Preliminary Nations Emna BenArab (PhD),Fayçal Maalej(PhD),Mohamed for securityconcerns, protests break outinthe region. activity on the southern border. When borders are closed economicand illicit–decreases, whichistheprimary Tunisian government ascross-border trade –both licit of insecurityinLybia posesaneconomic threat to the weak economy ofthecountry. Furthermore, thestate real challenge for Tunisia given thepolitical tensions and across theborder fleeingcivilwar, whichrepresents a Violence inLybia isthecause oftheflows ofrefugees in Libya.”12 safe zone to train, arm,andprepare outattacks to carry state which“provided militant groups withareasonably control ofnon-state actors after the failure ofa central turmoil.11 TheLibyan sideoftheborder isunder the 24% ofTunisian drop inGDPfrom 2011to 2015to Libya’s southern and western borders. The World Bank attributes fact, Tunisia hasalways faced threats coming from the Guerdane inan attempt to proclaim anemirate there. In streamed across thesouthernborder into thetown ofBen the IslamicState were trained inSabrata, Lybia, and In 2016,more thanfiftyarmedmilitants belonging to Fragile BorderSecurity Regional Instabilityand strategy isyet to beidentifiedandimplemented. approach to counter-terrorism; an inclusive overarching The Tunisian government still opts for asecurity-based ,, , andKasserine10.” the suburbsofTunis andtheinlandregions, especiallyin influence inthepublicsphere andto recruit militants in and charitable activities allowed themto expand their and conflict resolution in communities. “Their preaching different parts -different ofthe typesofaids country on humanitarian campaigns to approach theyouth in the country’s democratic transition. initiallyrelied They institutions andtheirviolent methods whichthreaten Islamic state, thedenialoflegitimacy ofmodernstate which preaches andcalls for theestablishment ofan The danger ofthesegroups emanates from theirideology plications-of-the-libyan-crisis-on-tunisia/ Issue 13,https://jamestown.org/program/a-neighbors-dilemma-the-im- of theLibyan CrisisonTunisia, Publication: Terrorism Monitor, Volume 17, 12 ya-crisis-on-the-Tunisian-economy bank.org/curated/en/517981490766125612/Tunisia-Impact-of-the-Lib Crisis ontheTunisian Economy,” 2017,http://documents.world February - 11 10 JamesPothecary, ANeighbor’s Dilemma:TheImplications “Republic ofTunisia: WorldBank, Impact oftheLibya Ibid p12.Look at themapofTunisia to locate cited regions. - 13 conducted by theDefence Department in2019showed in theregions where there are armedgroups. Asurvey in its effort to secure theborders and to combat terrorism Tunisians look at the army with great respect especially in areas where thenumberofpositive cases ishigh. deployedservices medical personnel andhealth facilities COVID-19 pandemic, for example, health themilitary to assist thenational effort to save lives. Inthecurrent forces were involved inanumberofnatural catastrophes the role itplayed intherevolution. Historically, thearmed or economy inTunisia; itenjoys popularsupportdueto is noclear evidence that thearmyisinvolved inpolitics head ofstate whoisthepresident oftherepublic. There secretary shouldbe a civilianunderthe command ofthe To guarantee thearmy’s impartiality, thedefence out inlaw.13 the civil authorities in accordance with the provisions set remain completely impartial. The national army supports the “isarepublican army.” Itisrequired to Article 18ofthe2014Tunisian Constitution states that The TunisianArmy FIGURE 2.ACTORS MAPPING ACTORS Aqme Link Groups Liby ed Article18,TheTunisian 2014. Constitution ofJanuary a ISIS Linke Groups d Presidency Alg T unisian eri a Governmen T Y unisi out h a t Ec Pa T Tr onomic Elit unisian rliament aditional Na e Union (UG Civil Society tional Labour Entrepreneurs TT) Emerging Po satisfaction ofcitizens 2019. aboutthe qualityofservices. 14 towards thesolutionto theseproblems isexpected to problems andescalating COVID-19 crisis.Working deteriorating purchasing power, terrorism andsecurity coalition intheparliament, economic hardship, inflation, challenges: political tensions asitisnot backed by a The current government hasto face anumberof hardships, weak economy, corruption, andterrorism. technocratic with themainfocus onfightingsocial governments; themost recently appointed oneispurely After the revolution, Tunisians have seennine The TunisianGovernment because ofthe trust itenjoys amongcitizens. acentralthe military role asapacifier inanytension terrorism, which cost it thelives of many soldiers, granted The impartiality of the armyandits role incounter- dissatisfied. the work oftheDepartment while only1.87%were that 62.42%14ofthe respondents were satisfied with litical ? Pa rties Ministry ofDefense, Ministry Tunisia, onthe Results ofthesurvey Key ? Alleged Link Discord/Conflict Links/Close Relationships 5 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 6 citizens. organizing queuesandproviding protective means to in assisting the government via targeted campaigns, played acentral 2020,they in February-March role families with assistance. During the COVID-19 pandemic to violence. organize They protest andprovide needy guarantee that anyconflict inTunisia doesnot escalate watchdog, isquite clear intheprocess. CSOs represent a of civilsociety to peace anddemocratization, andasa of anoppositionmemberparliament. Thecontribution during the deep political crisis caused by the assassination Peace Prize for its role aspeace anddemocracy builder National DialogueQuartet initiative received theNobel role in the democratic transition in Tunisia. In 2015, the ademocratizingscene. As force, played aprominent they growth innumberand impact intheTunisian national civil society organizations (CSOs) experienced spectacular more freedom oforganization aresult, andopenness.As The post-revolution institutional framework allowed Civil Society people’s socialandeconomic concerns. that political thenew elites are detached from ordinary class andthepeople,whichconfirmed theperception factors that widenedthechasmbetween thepolitical and quarrels intheparliament, andthisisamongthe fornew Tunisians who are not used to seeing arguments The profound institutional transformations are something broadcast live onTV. sessionsarewhile menrepresent 73.73%. Theplenary over ten political coalitions. Women represent 26.27%15 a unicameral assemblycomposed of217members spread oftheRepresentativesThe Assembly ofthePeople (ARP)is The TunisianParliament political parties. by elements intheinformal economy, armedgroups and be sabotaged by spoilers indifferent spheres, especially ber 2020. arp.tn/site/main/AR/docs/composition/compos_s.jsp consulted 10 Octo 15 Data retrieved web site, from http://www. theAssembly - still exists. army andsecurityforces infightingterrorism, thethreat peace andsecurity. Despite thesuccess oftheTunisian returnees from amongthemrepresent areal threat to jihadist groups, andsince are they well trained, the Many Tunisians travelled to conflict zones to jointhe presidential guard were killedinasuicidebombattack. Hotel. Inthesameyear, a dozen members ofthe Bardo Museumnear thecapital, Tunis, andtheother at than 60tourists were killedintwo attacks, oneat the assassination oftwo leftist political figures. In2015,more Embassy whilein2013,theIslamicState (IS)claimedthe terrorist attacks. In2012,AnsarAl-Sharia attacked theU.S. called “lone wolves”, perpetrated they a lot of violent and Islamic law(Shariaa).Ingroups orasseparate individuals as“infidels” whosedeaththeir ideology isordered by Jihadist groups consider allthosewhodonot adhere to emerge andthreaten thedemocratic transition. TheSalafi in Lybia are conditions that helpedthejihadist groups and international terrorism networks, andthesituation Ali regime, theeconomic hardship, theriseofregional The securityvacuum created by thedeparture oftheBen Jihadist Groups tion_Dynamics_of_Conflict_and_Reconciliation researchgate.net/publication/326973829_Tunisian_Democratic_Transi- MANITIES. 5.603-609.10.24297/jah.v5i1.5907. available at https://www. Dynamics ofConflict andReconciliation. JOURNALOFADVANCES INHU- 16 of jobs. economic challenges, whichmeant thelossofthousands companies decidedto relocate because ofsecurity and especially among the youth and college graduates. Many The national unemployment rate continued to rise, confronted by thearmy, securityforces andcitizens. Ben Guerdane andproclaim an“emirate,” were butthey of whoreturned withamissionto assaultthetown of of manyTunisian fighters to theinsurgent groups some The Lybian revolution hadfacilitated therecruitment security agents andsoldiers inthemost hideousway. bomb attacks inthecapital andtheassassination of terrorist acts includedtwo political assassinations, Tourism was hitby the Bardo andSousse attacks. Other The economy was shattered by terrorist operations. disparities generating feelings offrustration andanger.16” unemployment rate reaching 15.6%,andgrowing social neighbouring Libya, alarmingeconomic hardship with resulting from transnational terrorism andcivilwar inthe came into play, most notably “serious securityissues to thestreets to imposeBenAli’s ouster. Several factors meet theexpectations ofthousandspeoplewhotook Prime Minister’s Office. Thetransition in Tunisia didnot in the emblematic square of Al-Kasbah, opposite the that gathered youth from different parts ofthe country Tunisians demandedelections after two majorsit-ins years later 2014. on26January Tunisianthe new constitution whichwas adopted three constituent assemblyof217members was elected to draft and credible elections of23 October 2011.Anational interim government that organized thefirst democratic It acted legislative asarevolutionary authorityandan revolution, political reform anddemocratic transition. Ben Ali established as a supreme body for leading the The team consisted ofhistorical popularopposers of temporary team was established to organize thetransition. soonastheformer president leftthe As country, a Tunisians’ desire for freedom andjustice. a representative anddirect governance that illustrates past ofdecades ofdespotism. Itlaidthefoundations for turning pointinTunisia’s modernhistory endingagloomy The 2011revolution (TheJasmineRevolution) was a CONFLICT DYNAMICS Chehoudi, Rafaa. (2017).Tunisian Democratic Transition: communication andpeaceful coexistence. of ideas didnot inthecountry hindermultilateral coexistence. The plurality of visions and the diversity hold multilateral discussionsandto come to peaceful In fact, manyanalysts spoke aboutTunisians’ abilityto drafting a roadmap that saved Tunisia from bloodshed. antagonists to around table discussionandeventually four civilsociety organizations succeeded inbringingthe the rest posingreal threats ofcivilwar. However, the in adeeppolitical crisisthat mobilized Islamists against opposition leader, Mohamed Brahmi, put the country place for compromise. Theassassination oftheleftist a landofdiversity andemancipation, whichleaves a are acquiring asensethat hasbecome theircountry way each conflict was managed indicates that Tunisians peace andsecuritytheemerging democracy butthe Tunisia hasgone through seriouscrisesthat threatened experienced.the country of NidaTounes (liberal), could not deal withthecrisesthat leader ofAl-Nahdha(Islamic), andBejiKaiedSebsi,leader most prominent political figures, , Even thestrategic consensuses agreed uponby thetwo expectations in theirshort-term or long-term objectives. number. Most oftheseparties failed to meet people’s a multitudeofpolitical parties whichexceeded 200in The post-revolution political landscape was marked by momentum inthefightagainst corruption. economic sabotage and slow down in the government’s entrepreneurs. game The lose-lose led to mutual This group created indirect conflict withthetraditional administrative positionsinorder to defend theirinterests. businessmen whodecidedto have theirown share inkey flourished leading to thecreation generation ofanew of Food prices skyrocketed andtheinformal economy 7 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 8 clothing. face masks,coronavirus screening tests andprotective fight against coronavirus. Thedonation consisted of part ofassistance provided to African countries inthe Tunisia received agrant from theAfrican Union(AU) as elected andaccountable governments. paved ways towards theestablishment ofdemocratically and expressed satisfaction with thetwo processes asthey long-term andshort-term election observation missions, legislative andpresidential elections anddeployed both The African Unionwas alsopresent at the2011and2014 the situation andpresent relevant recommendations. of theWisevisited Tunisia on6and7April2011to assess and respect for humanrights. Two members ofthePanel since itisanaspiration to genuine democracy, ruleoflaw to “deepen democratization processes on the continent”17 the popularuprisinginTunisia represents anopportunity The Panel oftheWiseAfrican Unionconsidered that The AfricanUnion of aninclusive, representative anddemocratic regime. politically and technically in the transition to set the bases International actors supported Tunisia financially, ASSESSMENT CURRENT RESPONSE entournures_707979 2011, https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2011/01/18/la-france-genee-aux- 18 republic-of-tanzania meeting-of-the-panel-of-the-wise-of-the-african-union-zanzibar-united- ETHIOPIA 12MAY 2011,available at http://peaceau.org/en/article/11th- 17 statements inrecent daysonthe‘Jasmine Revolution.’18 confusion andembarrassment oftheFrench government’s movement that follows isnoeasy feat, hence, the support for adictatorship to backing thedemocratic on thismatter sayingthat “Shifting overnight from total Ben Ali.TheFrench newspaper Libération commented liberty untilafter the departure ofthe former president, events oftherevolution anddid not supportthecall for in Tunisia. However, itseemedto beovertaken by the made foreign direct investment ofabout320millioneuros From 2013-2015,Tunisia’s maineconomic partner, France, France Nicolas Cori,LaFrance gênée auxentournures, Libération, 10th MEETINGOFTHEPANEL OFTHEWISE,ADDISABABA, following theLybian Revolution21. Tunisia 80.5millioneuros to manage therefugee crisis elections since 2011.Last butnot least, theEUoffered observation missionshave beendeployed indifferent process institutions andnew were established. Electoral Five experts were deployed to assist intheelectoral partner for democracy to supportthetransitional process. the emerging democracy was offered from theEU, a Technically, at therequest oftheTunisian government, for social,environmental andlocal development.20 million euros for economic reforms, and20millioneuros Plan for its implementation. In2011,Tunisia received 130 Partnership” inNovember 2012andanambitiousAction Tunisia have, context, in this new concluded a “Privileged geographical, cultural and commercial links, the EU and visits by its leaders. Natural partners withregard to contributing to theinstitutional dynamicthrough official European NeighbourhoodPolicy (ENP) as well asby available resources and effective policies through its supported thedemocratization by ofthecountry making After the outbreak of theArab spring movements, Brussels granted thestatus ofstrategic partnership withtheEU. agreements followed untilrecently whenTunisia was EU andTunisia dates back to 1969.19Thenseveral The first economic agreement ontrade between the European Union(EU) eenne-1-an-apres-la-revolution-du-jasmin availableatwww.kapitalis.com/tribune/7400/la-tunisie-et-lunion-europ Européenne- Unanaprès la« Révolution duJasmin », Kapitalis (2011) 21 eenne-soutenir-tunisie/00090336 ableathttps://www.alternatives-economiques.fr/qua-lunion-europ pour soutenir laTunisie ?(2019)Alternatives Economiques, avail- 20 presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_95_106 TUNISIA, Memo95/106,available at https://ec.europa.eu/commission/ 19 Data retrieved from Stefan Fule, LaTunisie et L’Union Alexander DamianoRicci, Qu’a fait l’Union européenne RELATIONS BETWEENTHEEUROPEANUNIONAND - - Civil society willcontinue to playits stabilizing role. these workers. Tunisian workers andallowing for larger remittances from lead to economic growth by openinglabourmarkets to Regional stability intheneighbouringcountries would institutions.financial anddevelopment signalling to Tunisia positive outlooksfrom external challenges. Foreign direct investment would increase the government withstand securityandunemployment African, European andregional relationships would help regional disparities. of adecentralized system would helpreduce socialand and consolidated political institutions. Establishment systems in a way that allows a strong political system Tunisia would continue to reform its political andeconomic Best CaseScenario unstable andisolated. worsening internal andexternal riskfactors, would be the opportunityto settle inTunisia. Tunisia, withthe the securitycrisisandarmedgroups would seize Instability in the neighbouring countries would deepen shocks. agricultural production would decrease due to climate water would affect andenergy economickey sectors and administration andthespread ofcorruption. Scarcity of and emerging economic actors would result inweak increase. Thefierce competition between traditional unemployment andregional andsocialdisparities does not take appropriate measures to manage youth on consumers’ purchasing power. Thegovernment Vulnerability to food andriseinoilprice would impact Worst CaseScenario stability inthecountry. the success inpolitical transition, thesefactors can impact Risk factors inTunisia are internal andexternal. Despite SCENARIOS crisis. actors willinitiate national a new dialogueto ease the Therefore, itisexpected that both economic andpolitical crises. The2015national dialogueisagood example. can sit together and identify issues that lead to political The recent experience hasshown that Tunisian politicians initiative that mightameliorate thesituation. expected that hewillpresent to theparliament a legislative economic problems Tunisians are facing. Itis,therefore, campaign to contribute to solvingthefinancialand The Tunisian President, KaisSaid,promised inhis regions. and securityimpacts, especiallyinthesouthern border spillover oftheLybian crisiswithregard to its economic The Tunisian willbemore diplomacy active insolvingthe continue inits swift reactions. from theMarch 2020lockdown. Thegovernment will meet the requirements of the private sector that suffered under pressure inanattempt to address publiccalls and the rapid spread ofcoronavirus. Thegovernment willbe health system. Tunisians would askfor measures to curtail and infected people.That would laymore pressure onthe pandemic willgo worse increasing thenumberofdeaths Tension willcontinue ininnerregions andCOVID-19 continue withefforts to attract more external investments. to decentralization willtake place. Thegovernment will constitutional court andcompletion ofthetransition Political reforms that includeappointmentofthe corruption. downturn, create employment for the youth, and fight long-term measures to reduce theimpact oftheeconomic dialogue andto set aroadmap to identifyshort-term and the parliament to initiate aninclusive national economic by the capacity ofthegovernment, thepresidency, and lead to anunstable butthat country can beinfluenced Mistrust amongpolitical andeconomic actors would Most likelyScenario 9 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 10 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report institutions. provide funds for necessary thegood functioning ofthe with other state institutions to resolve thesituation and not beenestablished yet. Thegovernment shouldwork credibility. Others suchastheconstitutional court have but were not renewed. Therefore, suffer they from lackof media, for example, have reached theendofmandate Some constitutional regulatory institutions such as should beagreed upon by other political partners, too. long to implementthese reforms. Suchaprocedure establish aroadmap to indicate when,how, andfor how agriculture, health andothers. Thegovernment should similar sectors that needreforms suchaseducation, the attraction ofmore foreign investments. There are bureaucracy ishighlyrecommended inorder to facilitate Reform ofthenational administration towards less disparities andrelieve tensions. and indirect employment opportunities,reduce regional implementation because willallow more they direct is recommended that theseprojects find theirway to There are a number of stalled projects.development It that suffocate the Tunisian economy. networks andcontribute to thecorrupt businesspractices border traffickers whodominate informal distribution of economic actors andthepowerful networks ofcross- challenges. Suchadialogueshouldincludetheinformal dialogue that debates both political andeconomic The government shouldlaunchaninclusive national To theGovernment STRATEGIC OPTIONS institutions andpolitical entities. more capacity buildingto theTunisian civilsociety, Finally, itisrecommended that theAfrican Unionprovide North andSub-Saharan Africa. events to identifypossiblecooperation fieldsbetween regional integration and organize bilateral and continental Union can revive theMaghreb countries’ talks towards that are themajorcauses ofmanytensions. TheAfrican adequate solutionsto theTunisian economic challenges Regional integration andcontinental cooperation are the Union’s instruments andinstitutions. civil society organizations to be more closely in touch with continental organization allowing political parties and for North Africa that guarantees the visibility of the There should be a specific communication strategy political libertyare not underminedinTunisia. toarbiter make andobserver sure that humanrights and The African Union should continue playing its role as an To theAfricanUnion integration ofMaghreb countries. revitalise theregional unionandtake steps towards the The UMAmemberstates shouldincrease efforts to To theArabMaghrebUnion Zeghal, Malika. (2013).Competing Ways ofLife: Islamism,Secularism, andPublicOrder intheTunisian Transition. Constellations 20,no. “Republic ofTunisia: (2017,February) World Bank. Impact oftheLibya CrisisontheTunisian Economy,” http://documents.worldbank. Walid AbdelHay. (2011).,Popular Revolutions intheArab Region: General Characteristics, Centre for MiddleEastern Studies, Amman. Tunisians Disaffected with Leaders as Conditions Worsen, Doubts about Democracy; Most Support Political Role for Islam, in Pew Deane.Shelley Transforming Tunisia: The Role of Civil Society in Tunisia’s Transition, International available Alert, at https://bit. Nicolas Cori.(2011).LaFrance gênée auxentournures, Libération, https://www.liberation.fr/planete/2011/01/18/la-france-genee-aux- Natalie Nougayrède. (2011).Tunisie :levirage delaFrance, contrainte par lesévènements, Le Monde,Le MondeAfrique, available at https:// Maria Cristina Paciello. (2011).Tunisia: Changes andChallenges ofaPolitical Transition, MEDPROTechnical Report No. 3/May, Available Jihadist Violence inTunisia: TheUrgent Needfor aNational Strategy CrisisGroup MiddleEast andNorthAfrica BriefingNo. 50Tunis/ Jan-Erik Refle. Tunisian civilsociety andits international links,available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/301771112_ James Pothecary. ANeighbor’s Dilemma:TheImplications oftheLibyan CrisisonTunisia, Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 17 International CrisisGroup. (2017May10).Report No. 117MiddleEast andNorthAfrica, Blocked Transition: Corruption andRegionalism Georges Fahmi –Hamza Meddeb. (2015).Market for Jihad:Radicalization inTunisia, Carnegie MiddleEast Centre, Carnegie-MEC.org. Fredrik Wehrey. (2020March 18).Tunisia’s Wake-Up Call:How SecurityChallenges from Libya Are ShapingDefense Reforms, https:// Emanuele Santi,SaoussenBenRomdhane andMohamedSafouane BenAïssa,(2011)Impact ofLibya’s Conflict ontheTunisian Economy: Chehoudi, Rafaa. (2017).Tunisian Democratic Transition: DynamicsofConflict andReconciliation. JOURNALOFADVANCES IN 10th MEETINGOFTHEPANEL OFTHEWISE,ADDISABABA,ETHIOPIA(2011MAY 12).available at http://peaceau.org/en/article/11th- REFERENCES 2: 254–274.http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:12724047 org/curated/en/517981490766125612/Tunisia-Impact-of-the-Libya-crisis-on-the-Tunisian-economy as-conditions-worsen/ consulted September 19th2020. Research Center Global Attitudes & Trends, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2013/09/12/tunisians-disaffected-with-leaders- ly/3eng3UG entournures_707979 www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2011/01/17/tunisie-le-virage-de-la-france-contrainte-par-les-evenements_1466501_3212.html for free downloading from theMEDPRO(www.medpro-foresight.eu). Brussels, 22June2016. Tunisian_civil_society_and_its_international_links Issue: 13,https://jamestown.org/program/a-neighbors-dilemma-the-implications-of-the-libyan-crisis-on-tunisia/ regionalism-tunisia in Tunisia, https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/north-africa/tunisia/177-blocked-transition-corruption-and- https://www.timelines.ws/countries/TUNISIA.HTML pub-81312 carnegieendowment.org/2020/03/18/tunisia-s-wake-up-call-how-security-challenges-from-libya-are-shaping-defense-reforms- Second AnnualQuarter, Assessment, A Preliminary TheAfrican Bank. Development Democratic_Transition_Dynamics_of_Conflict_and_Reconciliation HUMANITIES. 5.603-609.10.24297/jah.v5i1.5907. available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/326973829_Tunisian_ meeting-of-the-panel-of-the-wise-of-the-african-union-zanzibar-united-republic-of-tanzania 11 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 12 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 2011 Oct 23 2011 Jun26 2011 May11 2011 May1 2011 Feb 18 2011 Jan14 2010 Dec17 2008 Aug23 2007 Jan3 2002 Apr11 1992 1989 1987 Nov 7 1981 1956 Mar20 1956-2020 CONFLICT TIMELINE would pave theway for future elections. assembly that would shape their fledgling democracy, government choose a new andwrite constitution anew that glass doors inabidto stop thescreening of the film“NeitherAllahnorMaster” onsecularisminTunisia. transporting grenades. country, 80km(50miles)from theborder withLibya. Authorities alsoarrest asecond man,anAlgerian, whowas after a record 5,000 refugees fledthe conflict intheir country. lot ofthereligious schoolintheTunis suburbofManouba. unrest inhistwo decades inpower. Hisself-immolationpermit. sparks the“”revolutions. region designedto train fighters to besentto Iraq. north African country. Sixmore convicted onAug 26for establishing camp amilitary inTunisia’s north-eastern Kef envoys. are involved inadeadly gunbattle withpolice; hasblueprints offoreign embassies anddocuments namingforeign the capital, Tunis. Fifteen peopleare arrested. OnJan12theinterior minister disclosesnearly 30Islamic extremists eastern tourist resort, andkills14Germans,6Tunisians andaFrenchman. AlQaedaclaimsresponsibility. Tunisia holdselections heavily rigged. AnIslamist-backed coalition manages to win17percent ofthevote. medically unfitto govern. That endsthe30-year ruleofHabibBourguiba. is sentenced to life behindbars withhard laborundertheregime ofHabibBourguiba. An Islamist leader, Rached Ghannouchi,andother intellectuals found theIslamicTendency Movement. In1987he leadership ofHabibBourguiba, aFrancophone lawyer. Helaunchesacampaign advocating birthcontrol. Tunisia’s President Zineal-AbidineBenAlibans theIslamist Ennahdaparty. Tunisia holdsits first trulyfree elections since independence in1956.Voters elect a217-seat constituent Six members oftheSalafist movement are arrested after storming a Tunis cinemaand breaking its Tunisian police arrest aLibyan maninacar packed withKalashnikov riflecartridges inthesouthof A seemingly endless flow ofLibyans cross into Tunisia from Libya at theDehiba border post, aday Marek MariusRybinski (34),aPolish priest, isfound withhisthroat slitandstab wounds intheparking Tunisian President Zineal-AbedineBenAlisteps asideafter failing to quellthe worst anti-government Mohamed Bouazizi (26) burns himself after police confiscate the fruits and vegetables he sellswithout A Tunisian court convicts 13Islamicmilitants oncharges linked to plots outattacks to carry inthe At least 14people, including two security forces, are killedintheshootout in Soliman, 25 miles south of A gas tanker truckcrashes into thewall oftheElGhriba Synagogue ontheislandofDjerba, asouth- Zine ElAbidineBenAlibecomes president ofTunisia after doctors declare HabibBourguiba (84) Tunisia isgranted independence by France. Tunisia becomes anindependentnation underthe 2014 May28 2014 Jan26 2014 Jan8 2013 Aug27 2013 Aug12 2013 Aug2 2013 Jul25 2013 May19 2013 Feb 6 2012 Sep14 2012 May20 2012 Mar20 2012 Mar16 2012 Jan28 2011 Dec3 2011 Dec1 2011 Nov 19 killing 4ofthepolicemen standing guard. designate to unveil hiscabinet onalandmarkdayfor theArab Spring’s birthplace. after the revolution. in ,asdiscontent mounts over taxes new andgovernment failure to improve livingconditions three years killed two secularpoliticiansandseveral soldiers. Algerian border. overnight clashesinthearea. Tunis to protest against theassassination. People’s Party, dead outside hishouse.ThousandsofTunisians gather infront oftheInterior buildingin Ministry death. movement implicated inattacks across the country, prompting youths and resulting in one clasheswithangry downtown Tunis choked withtear gas andpatrolled by atank andarmoured cars. leaves homeinthefirst assassination inpost-revolutionary Tunisia, setting offanti-government riots that left suspended sentence. One hundred twenty Tunisians accused ofattacking theUS Embassy are convicted in2013andgiven two-year and gunshots. Police kill4people.Around 40others are injured asplumesofblacksmoke waft over thecity. Salafists count about10,000followers inTunisia. waving swords, converge to rally for oneofthecountry’s most radical religious movements. Researchers estimate a wideningdivisionbetween secularandreligious groups democratized inthenewly nation. Islamic lawinthecountry’s future constitution. groups. against extremism aslawmakers draft anew constitution. swept to power inOctober polls,butalsoto denounce unemployment andcorruption. assembly. Marzouki, becomes thepresident. Theleader oftheleft center Ettakatol, or forum, becomes thespeaker ofthe them. Ennahda’s HamadiJebali becomes theprimeminister. Congress for theRepublic party leader, Moncef Gunmen attack theKasserinehomeofInterior Minister, Lotfi BenJeddou,with hisfamily inside, Tunisian lawmakers vote constitution, onanew three years after the withthepremier-revolution, In Central Tunisia, clashesbreak outbetween police anddemonstrators protesting economic hardship Tunisia’s PMAliLarayedh declares Ansaral-Sharia aterrorist organization after obtaining proof that it Tunisia carries outairstrikes onIslamist militants holedupintheMountChaambiarea near the Tunisian forces launch air and ground strikes on Islamist militants near the Algerian border after fierce Two gunmen on a motorbike shoot Mohammed Brahmi (58),theleader of the leftist opposition Some 11,000police officers andsoldiers are blocked at anannual conference by a radical Islamist Opposition leader ChokriBelaid (47), critical of the Islamist-led government, is gunned down as he Violent protests outside theUS Embassy inTunis against ananti-Muslimfilmare met withtear gas In Central Tunis thousandsofhard-line Ansaral-Sharia Islamists, someinAfghan garb military and Thousands ofTunisians gather indefence marked oflibertyasthey Independence Dayamidfears of Several thousandmenandwomen demonstrate outside theparliament to demandtheinclusionof Over 8,000 people march in Tunis denouncing violence committed by ultraconservative Islamist Thousands ofIslamist supporters descend onCentral Tunis to confront liberal demonstrators rallying Thousands ofpeoplerally inCentral Tunis to express fears ofextremism underanIslamist party that The three parties rulingcoalition makingupthenew divideupthetop government jobsbetween 13 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 14 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report 2019 Sep15 2018 May6 2018 Jan13 2016 Mar7 2016 Feb 6 2015 Oct 9 2015 Sep30 2015 Jun26 2015 Mar18 2015 Mar17 2015 Mar5 2014 Dec21 2014 Nov 23 2014 Oct 26 2014 Sep19 2014 Jul30 2014 Jul26 2014 Jul16 candidates, willonlybethe first round ofthepresidential election. Tunisians deliver apolitical earthquake by corruption and economic despair. There isnoclear favourite, suggesting that thevote, whichincludestwo female among 26candidates for aleader whocan safeguard thecountry’s young democracy andtackle its unemployment, parties, whichform acoalition at thenational are level, expected to dominate thepollsfor 350municipalities. means ofovercoming aweek ofunrest triggered by austerity measures. army andpolice posts inaraid killing55people,includingcivilians. militants, andwould sooninstall electronic monitoring systems. upheaval. birthplace of the Arab Spring, an example of peaceful transition in a region struggling otherwise with violence and the symbolofIslamicState. down by aKalashnikov-toting gunmanidentifiedasa23-year-old student, Seifeddine Rezgui. beachside hotel inSousse.Theconfirmed death toll ofBritons reached 30outofthe38foreign tourists mowed following dayinconnection withtheattack. foreign tourists. Yassine al-Abidi and a fellow gunman are killed by the police. Security forces arrest ninepeoplethe security andborder controls to counter Islamist militants. rockets andlandmines. wins thepresidential election with55.68per cent ofthevote. big turnoutto consolidate democracy after achaotic four-year transition. Veteran politician,BejiCaidEssebsi(88), run-off onDec28. the Nida Tunis party, wins 47% of the vote. Outgoing interim president follows with 27% forcing a behind thesecularrival NidaaTounes with85ofthe217seats inparliament. that hasoverrun chunksofIraq andSyria,becoming the third jihadist group to doso. militias continues. near theAlgerian border. while soldiers holdaRamadan feast, killingat least 14soldiers. Thebodyofa15thsoldierisfound onJuly18. Tunisians cast ballots in theircountry’s second democratic presidential election, choosing from Tunisians vote intheirfirst free municipal elections. TheIslamist EnnahdaandsecularNidaaTounis Tunisian President Beji CaidEssebsiholdstalks withpolitical parties, unionsandemployers to discuss Dozens ofIslamist fighters storm through thetown ofBenGuerdan near theLibyan border attacking Tunisia completes a200-km(125mile)barrier alongits frontier withLibya to to keep try outIslamist Tunisia’s National Dialogue Quartet wins the Nobel Peace Prize for helping build democracy in the Tunisian troops stop cars two bomb-laden crossing from Libya and seize arms and documents bearing Thirty ninepeopleare killedand40wounded inagunattack onthefive-star RiuImperialMarhaba Gunmen open fire at the Bardo National Museum in Tunis. Overall, 23 people are killed, including 21 Tunisia dismantles4recruiting cells sendingjihadisto fightinLibya andarrests dozens amidst tighter Tunisian troops capture alarge armscache near theborder withLibya, including Kalashnikov rifles, Tunisians vote intherun-offof country’s first free presidential election, withauthoritiesurging a Tunisia holdsits first free presidential election. Initialresults showed BejiCaidEssebsi(87),Head of Tunisia holdsparliamentary elections. TheIslamist party Ennahdafinishessecond with69seats Tunisia’s OkbaIbn Nafaa, anAl-Qaeda-linked group, offers to get back to theIslamic State organization Tunisia reports upto 6,000peopleadayfleeinto from thecountry Libya asviolence between rival At least 2soldiers are killedwhenIslamist militants attack acheckpointinremote area ofKef region Some 40-60 militants stage two simultaneous attacks in western Tunisia at sundown on army posts 2020 Mar23 2020 Mar6 2019 Oct 13 2019 Oct 6 2019 Sep17 lockdown imposedto haltthespread ofcoronavirus. Tunisia has89confirmed cases ofthevirus. police officer and wounding four others. election winfor KaisSaied. professor, faces NabilKaroui, amediamogulwhofaced corruption allegations. Exit pollsdeclare alandslide of People’s Representatives. parties. Two pollsestimate that theIslamist party Ennahdhawould winabout40ofthe217seats intheAssembly disillusionment that hasemerged since the2011revolution brought inpolitical newcomers to challenge established second-round run-off. Karoui win the most votes in the Sept. 15 presidential election, beating veteran political leaders to advance to a Kais SaiedandNabilKaroui led24other candidates. rejecting established leaders for alittle-known lawprofessor andamediamoguljailedonsuspicionoftax evasion. Tunisia’s President orders the army to deploy in the streets to force people to respect a Two suicidebombers blow themselves upnear theUS Embassy ontheoutskirts ofTunis killinga Tunisians cast ballots to choosetheirnext president. Intherun-off, Saied,an independentlaw Tunisians vote for parliament a new but quiet polling stations indicate that the economic Tunisia’s electoral commission declares lawprofessor KaisSaiedanddetained mediamogulNabil 15 Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) Tunisia Conflict Insights Report Peace and Security Reports

Although key continental and regional institutions have their own early warning reporting systems, policy making within these institutions also benefit from a number of analytical and periodic reports generated by think tanks and research institutes. The Research Unit at IPSS provides brief and critical analyses of the state of peace and security in different African countries as well as critical appraisals of interventions by various African actors. The reports will cover African countries showing positive signs as well as those undergoing negative developments.