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Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War Author(S): Steven Kull, Clay Ramsay, Evan Lewis Reviewed Work(S): Source: Political Science Quarterly, Vol

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Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War Author(S): Steven Kull, Clay Ramsay, Evan Lewis Reviewed Work(S): Source: Political Science Quarterly, Vol Misperceptions, the Media, and the Iraq War Author(s): Steven Kull, Clay Ramsay, Evan Lewis Reviewed work(s): Source: Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 118, No. 4 (Winter, 2003/2004), pp. 569-598 Published by: The Academy of Political Science Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/30035697 . Accessed: 27/02/2012 11:39 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. The Academy of Political Science is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Political Science Quarterly. http://www.jstor.org Misperceptions,the Media, and the IraqWar STEVEN KULL CLAY RAMSAY EVAN LEWIS The Iraq war and its aftermathhave raised compellingquestions about the capacityof the executive branchto elicit public consent for the use of militaryforce and about the role the media plays in this process. From the outset, the Bush administrationwas faced with unique challengesin its effort to legitimateits decisionto go to war.Because the warwas not promptedby an overt act againstthe United States or its interests,and was not approvedby the UN SecurityCouncil, the Bush administrationargued that the war was neces- sary on the basis of a potentialthreat. Because the evidence for this threatwas not fully manifest,the Bush administrationled the public to believe that Iraq was developingweapons of mass destruction(WMD) andproviding substantial supportto the al Qaeda terroristgroup. The challengefor the administration was later intensifiedwhen the United States occupied Iraq and was unable to find the expected corroboratingevidence. Fromthe outset the publicwas sympatheticto the idea of removingSaddam Hussein, though only a small minority of Americanswas ready to go to war with Iraqwithout UN SecurityCouncil approval.' The majoritywas inclinedto believe that Iraqhad a WMD programand was supportingal Qaeda.However, I Asked in a Chicago Council on Foreign Relations poll in June 2002 about their position on invad- ing Iraq,65 percent said the United States "shouldonly invade Iraqwith UN approvaland the support of its allies";20 percent said "the US should invade Iraq even if we have to go it alone";and 13 percent said "the US should not invade Iraq." STEVEN KULL is the director of the Programon InternationalPolicy Attitudes (PIPA), a joint pro- gram of the Center on Policy Attitudes and Center for Internationaland SecurityStudies at Maryland of the School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland. CLAY RAMSAY is the director of research at PIPA. EVAN LEWIS is a research associate at PIPA. Political Science Quarterly Volume 118 Number 4 2003-04 569 570 1 POLITICALSCIENCE QUARTERLY most were not persuadedthat the case was strong enough to justify taking ac- tion unilaterally.The majoritypreferred to continue looking for more decisive evidence throughthe UN inspectionprocess and to continue seeking the sup- port of the UN SecurityCouncil.2 Nevertheless,when the Presidentdecided to go to war, the majorityof the public expressedsupport. More significantly,when the United States failed to find the expected evidence that would corroboratethe administration'sas- sumptionsthat promptedthe war, the majoritycontinued to supportthe deci- sion to go to war.3 This polling data raises the question of why the public has been so accom- modating.Did they simplychange their views about the war despite their ear- lier reservations?Or did they in some way come to have certain false beliefs or misperceptionsthat would make going to war appearmore legitimate,con- sistent with pre-existingbeliefs? A variety of possible misperceptionscould justify going to war with Iraq. If Americansbelieved that the United States had found WMD in Iraq or had found evidence that Iraq was providingsupport to al Qaeda, then they may have seen the war as justified as an act of self-defense even without UN ap- proval. If Americans believed that world public opinion backed the United States going to war with Iraq, then they may have seen the war as legitimate even if some membersof the UN SecurityCouncil obstructedapproval. Of course,people do not develop misperceptionsin a vacuum.The admin- istrationdisseminates information directly and by implication.The press trans- mits this informationand, at least in theory, provides critical analysis. One's source of news or how closely one pays attention to the news may influence whether or how misperceptionsmay develop. To find out more about the possible role of misperceptionsin public sup- port for the Iraqwar, and the role of the mediain this processbefore and during the war, the Programon InternationalPolicy Attitudes(PIPA) conducteda se- ries of polls with the polling firm Knowledge Networks (KN). From January throughMay 2003, a more limited set of questionswas asked in four different polls. Later, Knowledge Networks developed a more systematicset of ques- tions that was includedin a series of three polls, conductedfrom June through 2 In August 2002, 55 percent thought Iraq "currentlyhas weapons of mass destruction," and 39 percent thought Iraq is trying to develop these weapons but does not currentlyhave them (CNN/USA Today). On al Qaeda, Newsweek asked in September 2002, "From what you've seen or heard in the news ... do you believe that Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq is harboring al Qaeda terrorists and helping them to develop chemical weapons, or not?" Seventy-five percent said yes. Yet, in a 24-25 February2003 CBS News poll, only 31 percent agreed that "Iraqpresents such a clear dangerto Ameri- can interests that the United States needs to act now"; 64 percent agreed that "the US needs to wait for approval of the United Nations before taking action against Iraq," and 62 percent said that "the United States should wait and give the United Nations inspectors more time." 3 From May through November 2003, the Program on InternationalPolicy Attitudes/Knowledge Networks (PIPA/KN) has found a declining majorityof 68 percent to 57 percent saying "the US made the right decision ... in going to war with Iraq." MISPERCEPTIONS, THE MEDIA, AND THE IRAQ WAR 1 571 September,with a total of 3,334respondents. These resultswere combinedwith the findingsfrom four other polls, conductedfrom Januarythrough May, for a total data set of 8,634respondents. In addition,relevant polling data from other organizationswere analyzed,including polls that asked questionsabout possi- ble misperceptions. The polls were fielded by KnowledgeNetworks using its nationwidepanel. Panel membersare recruitedthrough standard telephone interviewswith ran- dom digit dialing (RDD) samples of the entire adult population and subse- quently provided internet access. Questionnairesare then administeredover the Internetto a randomlyselected sample of the panel.4 This article first explores the degree of pervasivenessof misperceptions, particularlythe followingthree: that since the war U.S. forces have found Iraqi WMD in Iraq;that clear evidence has been found that SaddamHussein was workingclosely with al Qaeda; and that world public opinion was in favor of the United States going to war with Iraq. Second, it analyzesthe relationship between the holding of these misperceptionsand supportfor the Iraq war by using multivariateregression analysis to compare the strength of this factor with a range of other factors. Third,it analyzes the relationshipbetween the holding of misperceptionsand the respondent'sprimary news source. Fourth, it evaluatesthe relationshipbetween attentionto news and the level of misper- ceptions. Fifth, it analyzes misperceptionsas a function of political attitudes, includingintention to vote for the Presidentand partyidentification. A binary logistic regression analysis including misperceptionsand eight other factors provides a rankingof factorsby power. The articleconcludes with an analysis of the various factors that could explain the phenomenon of misperceptions, includingadministration statements and media reporting. MISPERCEPTIONS RELATED TO THE IRAQ WAR In the run-upto the war with Iraq and in the postwarperiod, a significantpor- tion of the Americanpublic has held a numberof misperceptions5relevant to the rationalesfor going to war with Iraq.While in most cases only a minority has had any particularmisperception, a strong majorityhas had at least one key misperception. Close Links betweenIraq and al Qaeda Both before and after the war, a substantial portion of Americans have be- lieved that evidence of a link between Iraq and al Qaeda existed. Before the 4 For more informationabout this methodology,see the Appendix or go to www.knowledgenetworks. com/ganp. 5 Herein the term "misperceptions"is not used to refer to controversial beliefs about what U.S. intelligence has been able to infer, such as the belief that Saddam Hussein was directly involved in September 11. The term is limited to noncontroversialperceptions such as whether actual weapons or actual evidence have in fact been found. The misperceptionrelated to world public opinion is estab- lished based on polling data discussed later. 572 I POLITICAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY TABLE1 Evidenceof Linkbetween Iraq and al Qaeda (percentages) Is it yourimpression that
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