Madagascar | No 3 | June to July 2007

MADAGASCAR | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

In June and July 2007 Madagascar remained relatively stable (see graph) despite disquietude swelling in the ranks of President Marc Ravalomanana’s Tiako i Madagasikara (TIM) party. Challenges from within the TIM party have been brewing for more than a year but in June and July the party’s crisis reached a peak. On the one hand, there appears to be significant contestation of TIM president Solofonantenaina Razoarimihaja’s authority. As of 8 July, only 30 percent of the TIM Politburo were willing to pledge support for Razoarimihaja. Minister of Domestic Government Events, Domestic Non-Government Decentralization Yvan Randriasandratriniony, a one-time director within Events, and International Events (average weighted by IDEA Ravalomanana’s company The Tiko Group, appears most likely to take over that role scale) with the president’s support. On the other hand, a significant faction has emerged that is critical of Randriasandratriniony and Ravalomanana. The CRTIM (Committee for the Redynamism of the TIM) led by former Minister of Education Jean Theodore Ranjivason and Senator Joseph Yoland (“Momy”), have pushed for a TIM national convention. This is a sign of growing factionalism. On 1 August an arrest warrant for Momy was issued by a court in Nosy Be. On 21 July President Ravalomanana exercised his power, given to him in articles 59 and 98 of the constitution, to dissolve the National Assembly effective 26 July. A 14 August deadline was set for candidates to submit nomination papers to their districts and elections are scheduled for 23 September. Opposition candidates and TIM candidates seeking to reform their own party complained that twenty days were insufficient for parties to

Source: FAST event data select candidates, print off ballot papers and get the registration submitted to the High Constitutional Court. They accused the president of hurrying up elections to avoid his own impeachment. The number of deputies will be reduced from 160 to 127. Following the announcement of the dissolution, some CRTIM MPs declared that the goal was to eliminate CRTIM candidates before the TIM referendum. The CRTIM, opposition party leaders, AVI party leaders, the FFKM (umbrella church organization where President Ravalomanana is lay-Vice President of its Protestant faction, the FJKM) and the independent KMF/CNOE (National Commission for the Observation of Elections) criticized the president for announcing a new election without electoral code reform. These reforms, sought in advance of the 2006 presidential elections (Madagascar Update 2, 2006), focus on creating an independent national election commission and reforming the balloting process from a multi-ballot to a single ballot system. Despite the challenges within the TIM, the opposition has shown an inability to organize itself in a competitive fashion. Former president and CRN chief Zafy Albert flew to Paris to meet with his one-time nemesis, former President Didier Ratsiraka on 8 July and 20 July. They continue to challenge the 2001 elections and its aftermath and they continue to call for a “Transitional” government. The second runner-up in the 2006 presidential election, Roland Ratsiraka (nephew of the former president and head of the Toamasina Tonga Saina (TTS) party), was arrested on 18 April and held on bribery charges (Madagascar Update 2, 2007). Jean Lahiniriko, former president of the National Assembly and the second place candidate in the 2006 presidential elections, appears to be well-placed for becoming the central opposition force in the new government. On16 June the president announced a decision to exercise one other institutional reform within his power. He dissolved the Chief of Staff position and replaced it with three secretary general positions and a manager of the Presidential Office. The newly appointed manager is President Ravalomanana’s close associate, hitherto Secretary General of the Ministry of Environment Joelisoa Ratsirarson. Secretary General of Legal and Administrative Affairs is former Good Governance Director, Henri Rabesahala, Secretary General in charge of International Relations and Specific Projects will be Ambassador Denis Andriamandroso, and Secretary General for the Madagascar Action Plan will be Jean Bruno Ramajefarivo.

President Ravalomanana’s hallmark policy endeavor is the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP). This Plan was adopted in 2006 for the period of 2007-2012 and builds on a 2003 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The MAP itself was released by the IMF as a PRSP in February 2007. Its main goals include (i) responsible governance, (ii) connected infrastructure, (iii) educational transformation, (iv) rural development and a green revolution, (v) health, family planning, and the fight against HIV/AIDS, (vi) high growth economy, (vii) cherish the environment, and (viii) national solidarity. In a June 2007 report, the World Bank estimated that the Plan will cost between USD $8 billion and USD $11 billion. The funds are to come from “advancements in domestic revenue mobilization” and “scaling up donor assistance.” In practical terms this means increasing public sector efficiency and increasing private sector growth, particularly in the mining and fledgling oil sectors. Revenue from mining areas (particularly in Anosy, see Madagascar Update No. 1, 2007) and oil areas (see Madagascar Update No. 2, 2007) will flow back to the central government for investment in the MAP. The state would then have a large role in both supporting and distributing the benefits of the private sector. According to the IMF, Madagascar’s Gross Domestic Product expanded a healthy 4.9 percent FAST Update | Madagascar | No 3 | June to July 2007

in 2006 and is projected to grow to 5.6 percent in 2007 and 2008 despite significant pressure from food and energy costs. In July the IMF announced a revised projection of 6.5 percent for 2007. This expansion is due largely to the mining and oil sectors. On 27 June, Razaka Elyse, Director General of the state-owned oil company OMNIS, promised that it will produce 1000 barrels per day starting in September – a relatively small amount, but a first for Madagascar. On 12 June, President Ravalomanana flew to Tolagnaro (extreme south) to meet with Rio Tinto mining leader Andrew Mackenzie. Rio Tinto has broken ground on the Ehaola Harbor project, which will build the second largest harbor in sub-Saharan Africa. Rio Tinto has invested USD $650 million in ilmenite mining in the region and expects to start producing 750,000 tons of ilmenite per annum in 2008. On 31 May Rio Tinto announced plans to increase production by 200 to 300 percent in the third year (totaling up to 2.2 million tons per annum). In December 2006 Canada-based Majescor Resources found copper and gold in a Madagascar bore. In July, Shield Mining (Australia) announced it will start prospecting on Majescor’s behalf and Hillgrove Resources (Australia) announced plans to dig on their own. The large impact on the GDP, however, is Dynatec’s estimate that it will raise USD $2.5 billion (45 percent of Madagascar’s GDP) over the next three years through nickel mining. The European Union (EU), France (Agence Française de Developpement and the French Co-operation), the African Development Bank and the World Bank have all agreed to a multi-donor plan for budgetary support based on these advances in the mining and oil sectors. On 6 June Patrick Dany Razakamananifidy, former Director of the National Leadership Institute in President Ravalomanana’s office, was selected as the new Secretary General of Mines. The massive expansion of Madagascar’s GDP from oil and mining (perhaps as much as 30 percent) has great potential to advance domestic revenue mobilization and pay for President Ravalomanana’s ambitious Madagascar Action Plan. The challenge will be to serve these long term goals while meeting pressing short term demands, particularly in rice and electricity (Madagascar Update 2, 2007).

Ravalomanana continues to be viewed as a liberal reformer and as a result enjoys strong international support (see graph). He continues to win over support from members of the international community. The World Bank continues to be Madagascar’s largest benefactor with a new portfolio of USD $974 million, which also includes support for the mining sector, and in July 2007, a USD $40 million grant in direct support of the MAP. The European Union is the second largest contributor with a portfolio recently expanded to €267 million Euros. The private sector is even more heterogeneous. Once dominated by the French, now investors flock to Madagascar from The United States, Germany, Canada, and Australia. Perhaps Ravalomanana’s most important gains have been made in China. On 17 May 2007 in Shanghai, Ravalomanana told China "You are an example of transformation; [sic] "We in Africa must learn from your success.” Amidst growing economic ties, he reaffirmed Madagascar’s One-China Policy on 27 July on the occasion of a visit from Chong Quan, Chinese Minister of Commerce, to Madagascar. In contrast to the African Union’s reluctance to accept the legitimacy of his presidential ascension in 2002, President Ravalomanana is becoming an African leader. This is evidenced by the eagerness of the NEPAD to integrate the MAP into the NEPAD through a 3 June trip by NEPAD’s vice- president to Antananarivo and his role in the African Heads of State meeting on 1 July in Accra. During June and July, there was a conflict between Ravalomanana and the International Monetary Fund over the president’s proposed tax plan. Ravalomanana threatened to seek parallel funding if the IMF did not back down. However, the IMF did no more than register its dissatisfaction and on 16 July the Minister of the Economy, Harison Edmond Randriarimanana, assured the IMF that collaboration will continue. There are two areas in which Madagascar continues to receive international criticism. The first is in revision of the electoral code. On 4 July, the US Ambassador joined a chorus making a direct plea to Ravalomanana to revise the code (Madagascar Update 2, 2006). The second continues to be over Ravalomanana’s expulsion of Father Sylvain Urfer, a Jesuit Priest serving poor Malagasy communities for over three decades. It was perhaps coincidental that it came at a time when tension between the president and the Catholic Church had escalated. On 4 July Catholic archbishops of the Indian Ocean region voiced support for Father Urfer and the Catholic Church of Madagascar in its fight.

In the short to medium term President Ravalomanana will remain firmly in control. The escalation of conflict within the TIM will likely get worse before it gets better. The party will need to find a way to reconcile its leadership, its internal networks and its policies or it risks splitting. The ruling faction of the TIM is likely to be well-served by the forthcoming legislative elections. Besides Jean Lahiniriko and the PSDUM, no opposition party appears well-placed enough to benefit from the elections. The uniformity of the president’s actions and successes in both the public and the private sphere continue to make it very difficult to challenge his path. He will, however, have to make good on these ambitious promises if he is to continue to enjoy such a tight reign on power in the medium to long term without significant increases in challenges to his presidentialism. Mining and oil revenues will have to bring about gains in the MAP that are not just institutional but felt broadly by the population. Global outreach for private sector expansion will have to produce both revenue increases and jobs. He will also have to make greater strides in addressing short-term demands, particularly in confronting electricity shortages and food prices.

Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Madagascar Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an Sonnenbergstrasse 17 international consortium of development agencies, including the 3000 Bern 7 Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Switzerland Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development [email protected] Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and www.swisspeace.org Cooperation (SDC).