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Alone in the Universe

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Alone in the Universe Alone in the Universe Despite the growing catalog of extrasolar planets, data so far do not alter estimates that we are effectively on our own Howard A. Smith he first known extrasolar planet (that The public wants to believe in aliens (or ligent beings are the inevitable product Tis, a planet orbiting around a normal extraterrestrial intelligence, ETI), some of life and evolution. This view has been star other than our Sun) was 51 Pegasi b, say, because they believe that “ETI comes the traditional attitude, and one typi- discovered only about 16 years ago. from ‘utopian societies which are free of cal portrayer was Percival Lowell, an Today, thanks largely to NASA’s orbit- war, death, disease or any other … mid- astronomer famous for his advocation ing Kepler satellite, there are more than 20th century problems’ and could ‘help of canals on Mars, who wrote in his 1908 1,500 known extrasolar planets (or plan- mankind overcome its problems.’” book, Mars as the Abode of Life: etary candidates), about 431 with con- Scientists and the press often encour- From all we have learned of its con- firmed detections and reasonably well- age people to adopt these sensational at- stitution on the one hand or of its determined parameters (such as radius, titudes. Last March, for example, the New distribution on the other we know mass and orbital characteristics). York Times ran an op-ed piece on extraso- life to be as inevitable a phase of These discoveries are exciting not only lar planets by astronomer Ray Jayaward- planetary evolution as is quartz or to astrophysicists; the public is also keen hana under an image of a sky full of stars feldspar or nitrogenous soil. Each to learn about Earthlike extrasolar plan- labeled with “THEM” signposts. The au- and all of them are only manifesta- ets and the possibility that some might thor was reassuring: People should not tions of chemical affinity. host life, even intelligent life. Last year fret about “life elsewhere, especially if it the Royal Society of London sponsored a turns out to be in possession of incredible Today we know that Mars has no ar- symposium with the dramatic title “The technology [that can] make us feel small tificial canals, and that this assertion Detection of Extra-terrestrial Life and the and insignificant.” He did not speculate was unsupported wishful thinking. Consequences for Science and Society.” on the possibility that this science-fiction Don Goldsmith and Tobias Owen, in Participants observed, “Should it turn scenario might instead make people feel their classic book, The Search for Life in out that we are not alone in the universe, inconsequential or prompt them to treat the Universe (1993 edition), present a it will fundamentally affect how human- each other, or our planet, casually. more modern view: ity understands itself,” and cited polls The dawn of the era of extrasolar- We anticipate that all planetary suggesting that most people believe we planet (or exoplanet) discovery pro- systems will have a set of rocky in- do have cosmic company (half of this vides us with the first bits of hard in- ner planets, with atmospheres pro- group think aliens have already visited). formation to use in reconsidering the duced by outgassing, weathering likelihood of this popular attitude. and escape, for the same reasons The spin has been that because planets that our own rocky inner planets Howard A. Smith is a senior astrophysicist at the are common, alien civilizations must have atmospheres. Judging from Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in be abundant. But that doesn’t follow. our own example, the chances Cambridge, Massachusetts, and a member of the The evidence so far does not alter the Harvard Department of Astronomy. His research em- seem good that one of these in- improbability that any ETI exists near phasizes the origins of stars, stellar systems and gal- ner planets will orbit its star at the enough to us to matter. It is therefore axies, and he is an author on more than 250 scientific “right” distance.… We say one in much more crucial for theology, phi- articles. He is also the author of Let There Be Light: every two to be conservative. Modern Cosmology and Kabbalah, A New Con- losophy, politics and popular opinion versation Between Science and Religion (New to ponder how humanity understands Nowadays this view, too, appears World Library, 2006; http://www.lettherebelightbook. itself if we might be effectively alone in narrow. The single most remarkable com), and writes and speaks on science, religion and the universe—humanity being a spe- finding of the new research on extra- the ethical implications of modern scientific discover- cies that is rare, precious and neither solar planets is that an enormous vari- ies. Previously he was Chair of Astronomy at the irrelevant nor cosmically insignificant. ety of systems exist—a diverse range of Smithsonian’s National Air and Space Museum; often-bizarre environments that is con- he also served for three years as a visiting scientist Traditional Attitudes siderably broader than had usually been at NASA Headquarters. This article is based on an invited talk given to the annual meeting of the Ameri- Life—specifically intelligent life, not imagined before the first one was dis- can Association for the Advancement of Science in just microbes—could be ubiquitous in covered. More than 50 likely Earth-sized February 2011. Address: Harvard-Smithsonian Cen- a universe that is as spacious and rich as planets have been spotted so far. Earth- ter for Astrophysics, MS-65, 60 Garden Street, Cam- ours; it is possibly teeming with Earth- like planets, with signs of liquid water bridge, MA 02138. E-mail: [email protected] like planets hosting life. Perhaps intel- and a congenial atmosphere, have as yet 320 American Scientist, Volume 99 © 2011 Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society. Reproduction with permission only. Contact [email protected]. Figure 1. Over a thousand extrasolar planets, orbiting stars other than our own, have been discovered. Many have surprising formations, such as planets the size of Jupiter orbiting their stars at distances closer than Mercury is to the Sun. This artist’s impression shows the planet HD 189733b, about 63 light-years from Earth, which is known to have water and methane in its atmosphere, although at temperatures over 1,000 degrees Celsius. However, data from extrasolar planets so far do not alter estimates that we are probably alone in the universe, for all practical purposes. (Image courtesy of ESA, NASA, G. Tinetti (University College London and ESA) and M. Kornmesser (ESA/Hubble).) fallen below the detection threshold, al- discoveries would help us reconstruct gent life is not common. Cosmologist though in the next few years, with the how life on Earth evolved, but unless a Paul Davies explores this absence in de- added patience it takes to measure a few species is capable of conscious, indepen- tail in his 2010 book, The Eerie Silence: of their yearly transits, it is reasonable dent thought and has the ability to com- Renewing Our Search for Alien Intelligence. to think that some will be found. It may municate, we will still be alone—with no The second important caveat derives turn out that our own solar system is one to teach or learn from, no one to save from two features of the world that were average—but we know now that at least us from ourselves (and no one to battle unknown to Percival Lowell. The first some planetary systems are unlike ours. against). Intelligent life, for the purpos- is relativity—the fastest any signal can Meanwhile, the results make it possible es of this discussion, means life able to travel is the finite speed of light. The to improve models of planet formation, communicate between stars; this implies second is the expanding nature of the which in turn offer improved guidance having something like radio technology. universe (presumably the result of a on planets in general. Our own society, by this definition, is “big bang” creation event, although the only about 100 years old. If intelligent origin of the expansion is not critical to Alone “For All Practical Purposes” life is common in a universe that is 13.7 the conclusions): Distant galaxies recede Two clarifications are essential. First, billion years old, then surely we are from us at an accelerating rate. Even if only the existence of intelligent beings among the youngest forms in existence. ETI is infinitesimally rare, in an infinite is relevant. Primitive life may yet be dis- As the physicist Enrico Fermi famously universe, every physically possible sce- covered on Mars; perhaps even multicel- observed, however, the fact that there is nario, however bizarre, will exist. Ste- lular animals will be found on a nearby no other known intelligent life indicates phen Hawking and other physicists ar- extrasolar planet. These revolutionary that the assumption is wrong—intelli- gue for the existence of “many univers- www.americanscientist.org © 2011 Sigma Xi, The Scientific Research Society. Reproduction 2011 July–August 321 with permission only. Contact [email protected]. that long again for us to receive a reply. To be alone for all practical purposes means to be without any communica- tion—or even the knowledge that any signal is coming—for a very long time. How long before we feel such solitude? My choice is 100 human generations; subjectively this seems like practically forever. Because one generation cor- responds to 25 years (and at least one round-trip of messages is necessary), I limit the following estimates to stars closer to Earth than 1,250 light-years.
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