Community fo raLifet ime Columbia As sociatio n’s Compreh ens ive Plan for Se rving t he Older Ad ult Commu nity Te ch nic al Appe ndix MAY 2014 Table of Contents – Technical Appendix A. Demographic Trends B. Howard County Health Survey Summary C. Mason‐Dixon Columbia Older Adult Survey D. Small Group Discussion Input E. Public Meetings Input F. Leadership Howard County Community Impact Project G. Senior 50+EXPO Survey Results, 2012, 2013 H. CA Older Adult Services, Programs and Facilities Provided I. CA Membership Information J. CA Older Adult Marketing and Communication Strategies K. Howard County and Other Services, Programs and Facilities L. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) Analysis M. Criteria for Successful Aging Cities, Milken Institute, July 2012 N. Older Adult Plan Work Team ‐ Charter Appendix A Context for Planning – Demographic and Other Related Trends Context for Planning – Demographic and Other Related Trends INTRODUCTION This appendix provides an overview of the older adult population in Columbia, based on information from the United States Bureau of the Census as well as other sources as noted. Population and population by age cohort forecasts for Howard County are included here as provided by Maryland Department of Planning by its cohort projection model. To gain a better understanding of how Columbia and Howard County compare to national trends, information from a national demographic statistics report entitled “The Next Four Decades, The Older Population in the United States: 2010 to 2050,” are referenced. Demographic characteristics addressed include population by age and gender, median age, older adult population by Columbia village, and household and housing unit characteristics. Projections are provided for Howard County and the nation. The write‐up also includes a discussion of disability status based on data from the American Community Survey. POPULATION BY AGE AND GENDER In 2010, 11 percent of Columbia’s population consisted of those at or above traditional retirement age (those 65 years old and above). Howard County’s rate was similar at 10 percent and close to the national rate of 13 percent. In addition, those approaching retirement, the 55 to 64 years old segment, accounted for 13 percent of Columbia’s population as compared to approximately 12 percent for Howard County and the U.S. Together, these older adults (aged 55 years and over) accounted for approximately one‐quarter of Columbia’s population (24.1 percent). Figure A‐1 shows the distribution of Columbia, Howard County and US residents by age grouping in 2010. It is also important to highlight that while Columbia’s older population is growing, the population at the other end of the age spectrum is also significant with more than one quarter (26.3 percent) of the total population comprised of children and youth below the age of 19. Figure A‐2 shows the 2010 age distribution for Columbia and Howard County. Columbia Association strives to serve all of these age segments. Population forecasts for Howard County (state‐prepared forecasts have not been produced for sub‐ county areas such as Columbia), find that the proportion of the population 55 years and older will increase rapidly between 2010 and 2020; growing by 47 percent (See figures A‐3 and A‐4). Looking farther out into the future, the portion of the Howard County population 55 years and older is forecast to increase by 87 percent over 2010 numbers by 2040. The largest absolute growth is projected for the 75 to 84 age category. 2 Figure A‐1: Population by Age and Gender, 2010, Columbiia, Howard County and the United States Columbia Howard County United States Population (2010) Population (2010) Population (2010) All Ages 90,316 100% 287,085 100% 308,745,538 100% Under 5 5,725 6% 17,363 6% 20,201,362 7% 5 to 19 17,703 20% 63,360 22% 63,066,194 20% 20 to 34 17,970 20% 50,088 17% 62,649,947 20% 35 to 44 13,141 15% 42,873 15% 41,070,606 13% 45 to 54 14,013 16% 49,585 17% 45,006,716 15% 55 to 64 11,725 13% 34,771 12% 36,482,729 12% 65 to 74 6,244 7% 17,616 6% 21,713,429 7% 75 to 84 2,607 3% 8,277 3% 13,061,122 4% 85 + 1,186 1% 3152 1% 5,493,433 2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 2010, Summary File 1 Figure A‐2: Age Distribution for Columbia and Howard County (2010) Source: US Census Bureau, Census of Population and Housing, 2010, Summary File 1 3 Figure A‐3: Age Distribution Change for Howard County (2010‐2040) 2010 to 2040 Age 2010 2020 2030 2040 Growth % Change 0-4 17,363 18,964 21,254 18,513 1,150 7% 5-19 63,360 63,187 64,333 63,156 (204) 0% 20-44 92,961 101,791 106,526 101,809 8,848 10% 45-54 49,585 43,612 42,026 46,984 (2,601) -5% 55-64 34,771 45,114 40,179 38,942 4,171 12% 65-74 17,616 29,624 38,287 35,382 17,766 101% 75-84 8,277 14,502 23,875 31,319 23,042 278% 85+ 3,152 4,559 8,036 13,995 10,843 344% TOTAL 287,085 321,353 343,349 350,100 63,015 22% 0-46%6%6%5% 5-19 22% 20% 19% 18% 20-44 32% 32% 31% 29% 45-54 17% 14% 12% 13% 55-64 12% 14% 12% 11% 65-74 6% 9% 11% 10% 75-84 3% 5% 7% 9% 85+ 1% 1% 2% 4% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: Maryland Department of Planning 4 Figure A‐4: Age Distribution Change for Howard County (2010‐20400) Source: Maryland Department of Planning MEDIAN AGE In 2010, the median age of Columbia’s residents was 37.9 years. This was very close to the median for Maryland which was 38.0 years, and the national median of 37.2 years of age. Most of the villages had median ages within a year, plus or minus, of Columbia’s value. There were some exceptions. Oakland Mills had the lowest median age, 35.1, while Town Center and Wilde Lake had the highest median ages, 40.3 and 41.8 years, respectively. OLDER ADULT POPULATION BY VILLAGE While those aged 65 years and over accounted for 11.1 percent of the total Columbia populatiion in 2010, there were significant differences by village. River Hill, Columbia’s last village to develop, had a high concentration of children and the smallest portion of its population as older adults, only 4.0 percent. On the other hand, Wilde Lake, Columbia’s first village, and Town Center stood out with 19.5 and 21.3 percent of residents respectively in the older adults’ cohort. These were the only two villages higher than the national average for the 65 years and older of 13 percent. Figure A‐5 shows proportions of households 65 years and over by village. 5 Figure A‐5: Percent of Population 65+ Years in Columbia Villages 6 PROJECTIONS – HOWARD COUNTY POPULATION BY AGE, 2010 TO 2040; NATIONAL POPULATION BY AGE 2010 TO 2040 In 2010, 10 percent of the Howard County population was 65 years or more (See Figure A‐6), which is very close to the Columbia percentage of 11 percent. By 2040, the proportion of those aged 65 years and above in Howard County is expected to rise to 23 percent of the total population, which is slightly more than the national projection of 20 percent of the total population (See Figure A‐7 and A‐8). This is also equal to the projected proportion (23 percent) for children aged 19 years and under. While the proportions of the population are projected to be similar, the 65 to 74, 75 to 84 and 85 years and over cohorts are forecast to have the largest increase of all the age cohorts. On the other hand, the 45 to 54 year age cohort is expected to decrease during the 2010 to 2040 forecasting period, by approximately 2,600, or a decrease of five percent. Figure A‐6: Howard County Population by Age, 2010 to 2040 2010 to 2040 Age20002010202020302040Growth% Change 0-4 18,248 17,363 18,964 21,254 18,513 1,150 7% 5-19 55,837 63,360 63,187 64,333 63,156 (204) 0% 20-44 96,212 92,961 101,791 106,526 101,809 8,848 10% 45-54 38,322 49,585 43,612 42,026 46,984 (2,601) -5% 55-64 20,755 34,771 45,114 40,179 38,942 4,171 12% 65-74 10,370 17,616 29,624 38,287 35,382 17,766 101% 75-84 5,955 8,277 14,502 23,875 31,319 23,042 278% 85+ 2,143 3,152 4,559 8,036 13,995 10,843 344% TOTAL 247,842 287,085 321,353 343,349 350,100 63,015 22% 0-47%6%6%6%5% 5-19 23% 22% 20% 19% 18% 20-44 39% 32% 32% 31% 29% 45-54 15% 17% 14% 12% 13% 55-64 8% 12% 14% 12% 11% 65-74 4% 6% 9% 11% 10% 75-84 2% 3% 5% 7% 9% 85+ 1% 1% 1% 2% 4% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 7 Figure A‐7: National Population Prrojections by Age 8 Figure A‐8: National Population Prrojections by Age 9 Figure A‐9 shows Howard County population by age trends from 1970 throough 2010 and forecasts to 2040.