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Greater Toronto Area Commercial Real Estate Investment Review / Fourth Quarter 2020 Greater Toronto Area GTA Investment Activity The predictable fourth-quarter in check (26 totaling $185 million by Sector and Dollar Volume surge in investment sales was a in 2020, down from 29 totaling welcomed respite in a year where $204 million in 2019). It remains the unpredictability of the pandemic to be seen whether the pandemic stymied investor appetite for select will result in a rise in distress 13% properties – bringing several years of transactions, perhaps similar to 36% record-high investment sales results that recorded in 2009 and 2010 14% to a halt. However, the foundation (with 40 and 49 sales, respectively) for a return to past and even better following 2008’s financial crisis. $B performances – low borrowing Industrial 15% costs and plenty of capital – remains intact and the wide distribution Industrial investment was 22% of vaccines should help sustain predictably strong, driven by investor demand in 2021. Fourth- robust e-commerce sales growth quarter sales of office, industrial, and deployment of urban last-mile Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2019 retail, multi-residential and ICI distribution. With sub-1% vacancy, land assets (>=$1 million) across demand outpacing new supply and Industrial the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) rental growth, the industrial sector is expected to generate higher $1.5B $668M $1.4B totaled $4 billion – up 64% quarter- over-quarter – with all sectors but cash flows, leading to higher values Multi-Residential land posting quarterly gains. and further investment in 2021. Unsurprisingly, industrial was the $877M $575M $2.1B Overall, $12.2 billion in assets sold top asset class during the quarter in 2020 – down 31% year-over-year. ICI Land and 2020 overall. Quarter-over- Investment declined in every sector quarter, sales more than doubled to $606M $645M $605M except industrial. Pricing remains almost $1.5 billion (representing 36% a bone of contention between Retail of the GTA total) for an annual total buyers and sellers given uncertain of $4.6 billion – up 7% year-over- $554M $342M $663M cash flow (for some assets), while year and a new high-water mark. the average GTA-wide cap rate The sector’s largest transaction Office rose 10 basis points year-over- included 1895 Williams Pkwy. and $531M $233M $1.3B year to 4.2%. Distress sales are 30 Bramtree Crt. – two data centres © 2021 Avison Young Commercial Real Estate Services, LP, Brokerage. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: Some of the data in this report has been gathered from third-party sources and has not been independently verified by Avison Young. Avison Young makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. Investment sales data sourced from Avison Young, Altus RealNet and Altus InSite. Greater Toronto Area CRE Investment Review / Fourth Quarter 2020 4.2% $12.2B 38% Average capitalization rate for GTA-wide investment Industrial sector’s share all asset types GTA-wide – up sales in 2020 – down 31% of overall 2020 GTA dollar 10 basis points year-over-year compared with 2019 volume vs. 24% one year ago GTA Investment Volume GTA Select Capitalization Rates 20 8.5% 18 7.5% 16 14 6.5% 12 10 5.5% $ in billions (CAD) 8 6 4.5% 4 2 3.5% '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 0 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Office Industrial Downtown Class AA Office Single-Tenant Industrial Retail Multi-Residential Tier I Regional Mall Multi-Tenant Industrial ICI Land Multi-Residential © 2021 Avison Young Commercial Real Estate Services, LP, Brokerage. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: Some of the data in this report has been gathered from third-party sources and has not been independently verified by Avison Young. Avison Young makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. Investment sales data sourced from Avison Young, Altus RealNet and Altus InSite. Greater Toronto Area CRE Investment Review / Fourth Quarter 2020 $119M The industrial sector’s top deal of the fourth quarter was the sale of two data centres by Bell Canada to Equinix REIT - part of a national portfolio 1895 Williams Parkway Source: Altus RealNet – part of a $1-billion-plus Canada-wide ICI Land share), annual investment in the sector portfolio sale between Equinix REIT ICI land sales fell 6% between quarters was down 25% to $1.8 billion in 2020 and Bell Canada. Peel Region was the to $606 million (15% share) – for a – an eight-year low. While grocery- GTA’s most active by dollar volume full-year 2020 total of nearly $2.1 anchored and essential-services-related during the quarter, with $438 million billion (down 29% year-over-year). ONE retail will remain popular, some buyers in sales (30% share), closely followed Properties, Sun Life/BentallGreenOak, may look to reposition less financially by York Region ($426 million / 29%) Panattoni and Fengate secured viable properties into alternative and the City of Toronto ($414 million land positions throughout the uses. Automotive dealerships and / 28%). Of the annual total, the City of GTA, amounting to $158 million in neighbourhood shopping centres Toronto represented $1.5 billion (33%), transactions – representing 26% were top of mind and among the top followed by Peel ($1.1 billion / 23%) of fourth-quarter dollar volume. five sales by dollar volume in 2020. and Halton Region ($1 billion / 22%). Among the GTA’s regions, Halton edged out Peel and York to post the Office Multi-Residential highest quarterly sales volume ($174 Investors remain leery of the office An asset class traditionally hampered million / 29% of GTA total), while sector and its ability to generate stable by limited supply of properties for Durham had the greatest acreage cash flow as droves of employees work sale is now dealing with headwinds sold (1,102 acres / 32% of GTA total). from home and employers contemplate – rising vacancy and softening rents Of the full-year results, York Region flexible work options. Despite an (including a government freeze for led the way in terms of both dollar improvement in quarter-over-quarter 2021). However, investors remain volume ($666 million / 32%) and office building sales – up 128% to bullish on the multi-residential sector acreage sold, accounting for 3,228 $531 million (13% share) – annual and its prevailing tailwinds – a return of the 10,225 acres that changed dollar volume plummeted 68% to $1.4 to favourable immigration levels and hands across the GTA in 2020. billion – the lowest result since 2009. expensive home ownership – to drive While downtown Toronto has been occupancy and investment higher in Retail hit hard (posting burgeoning sublet 2021. Fourth-quarter sales jumped Hit hard by government-imposed availability), the suburban market 52% compared with the third quarter lockdowns and consumer behaviour has proven more resilient, attracting to $877 million (22% share) but the that was already changing pre- more capital than usual. Suburban 2020 tally of $2.4 billion was down 37% COVID-19, the embattled retail sector assets dominated the top five office year-over-year. The largest transaction showed signs of hope – an indication sales during the quarter and 2020 of the quarter and year was a two- that investors are not ready to abandon overall. Perhaps investors are hedging building apartment portfolio (491 the sector altogether. Even though their bets that if downtown tenants units) between Soudan Investments fourth-quarter retail investment look to pivot to a hub-and-spoke and Q Residential for $222 million. jumped 62% to $554 million (14% model, suburban assets will benefit. © 2021 Avison Young Commercial Real Estate Services, LP, Brokerage. All rights reserved. E. & O.E.: Some of the data in this report has been gathered from third-party sources and has not been independently verified by Avison Young. Avison Young makes no warranties or representations as to the completeness or accuracy thereof. Investment sales data sourced from Avison Young, Altus RealNet and Altus InSite. Greater Toronto Area CRE Investment Review / Fourth Quarter 2020 Significant Transactions by Sale Price Sector Office Total Price Price psf Purchaser Vendor Concorde Corporate Centre $114,000,000 $201 Fengate Asset Management Artis REIT 2300 Meadowpine Boulevard $75,700,000 $313 BMO Life Assurance Co. Crown Realty Partners First Meadowvale Centre Phase I $72,200,000 $290 Groupe Mach Sun Life Assurance Co. 5150 Spectrum Way $66,200,000 $268 5150 Spectrum Nominee Ltd. ICORP Properties 8925 Torbram Road $48,000,000 $238 QuadReal Property Group Hudson’s Bay Company Industrial Total Price Price psf Purchaser Vendor 1895 Williams Parkway & $118,989,288 $297 Equinix REIT Bell Canada 30 Bramtree Court 1 Steelcase Road West $93,000,000 $135 QuadReal Property Group Liberty Development Corp. 1115 Cardiff Boulevard $53,741,000 $589 Choice Properties REIT Canada Cartage 145 Carrier Drive $48,000,000 $175 QuadReal Property Group Hudson’s Bay Company 123 Great Gulf Drive $47,315,848 $193 Summit REIT CTG Brands Retail Total Price Price psf Purchaser Vendor 2, 4 & 6 Maritime Ontario Boulevard $50,000,000 $665 OpenRoad Auto Group Policaro Group 800 Steeles Avenue West $43,200,000 $317 Terracap 547131 Ontario Ltd. 6435-6487 Dixie Road $24,000,000 $185 MSR Plaza Inc. Invar Building Corp. 58 & 60 Fieldway Road $18,853,333 $857 Stowe Holdings The Humberview Group 70 Parliament Street $18,000,000 $798 DFC Auto Group Toronto Transit Commission Multi-Residential Total Price Price per unit Purchaser Vendor Soudan Investments – Q Residential $222,055,000 $452,251 Q Residential Soudan Investments GP Portfolio 165 La Rose Avenue $83,600,000 $396,209 Realstar Group Raamco International Horizon Legacy Infrastructure 2008 50 Gerrard Street East $82,800,000 $440,426 OPTrust Corp.
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