Climate Change and International Security

EUROPEAN COMMISSION ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEKEN ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕESCLIMATE CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA CHANGE INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING ANDOCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSINTERNATIONAL ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASSECURITY UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA Paper from the High Representative and the European Commission to the European Council INTRODUCTION

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTSCLIMATE CLIMATIQUES CHANGE ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE AND CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSEDINTERNATIONAL JA RAHVUSVAHELINE SECURITY JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZAPaper from the High Representative*INTERNAZIONALE and the European CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINISCommission toSAUGUMAS the European Council KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLAINTRODUCTION FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWOhe risks posed by climate change areMIĘDZYNARODOWE real and its impacts are already ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICASTtaking place.E SEGURANÇA The UN estimates that all INTERNACIONAL but one of its emergency ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICEappeals forŞI humanitarian SECURITATEA aid in 2007 were climateINTERNAŢIONALĂ related. In 2007 the UN SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ Security Council held its fi rst debate on climate change and its implica- ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A tionsMEDZINÁRODNÁ for international security. The European CouncilBEZPEČNOSŤ has drawn attention PODNEBNE SPREMEMBEto the impact ofIN climate MEDNARODNA change on international security andVARNOST in June 2007 PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGinvited OCH the High INTERNATIONELLRepresentative and the European Commission SÄKERHET to present KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICASa joint report E to theSEGURANÇA European Council in Spring INTERNACIONAL 2008. ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSThe science ÉS of climate NEMZETKÖZI change is now better understood. BIZTONSÁG The fi ndings of ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIthe Intergovernmental E SICUREZZA Panel on Climate ChangeINTERNAZIONALE demonstrate that even CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO* Mr Javier SOLANA MADARIAGA, KAITA ifIR by 2050 TARPTAUTINIS emissions would be reduced to below SAUGUMAS half of 1990 levels, a KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS Secretary General of the Council of temperature rise of up to 2ºC above pre-industrial levels will be diﬃ cult KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAthe European Union PĀRMAIŅASand EU High to avoid. SuchUN a temperatureSTARPTAUTISKĀ increase will pose serious security DROŠĪBA risks that ZMENARepresentative forKLÍMY the Common A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗForeign and Security ΤΟΥ Policy ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 2 INTRODUCTION

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕwould increase if warming НА continues. КЛИМАТА Unmitigated И climate МЕЖДУНАРОДНА change beyond СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ 2ºC will lead to unprecedented security scenarios as it is likely to trigger ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNAa number of KLIMATU tipping points that would A lead MEZINÁRODNÍ to further accelerated, irre- BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGERversible and largely unpredictable climateOG changes.DEN InvestmentINTERNATIONALE in mitiga- SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗtion to avoid such ΤΟΥ scenarios, ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ as well as ways to adapt toΚΑΙ the unavoidable ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATEshould go hand CHANGEin hand with addressing AND the international INTERNATIONAL security threats SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTScreated by climate change; CLIMATIQUES both should be viewed as ETpart ofSÉCURITÉ preventive INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIOsecurity policy. CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOSClimate change is best viewed as a JA threat KANSAINVÄLINEN multiplier which exacerbates TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTSexisting trends, tensions andCLIMATIQUES instability. The core challenge ET isSÉCURITÉ that climate INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSchange threatens to overburden states and ÉS regions NEMZETKÖZI which are already BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG fragile and conflict prone. It is important to recognise that the risks are not CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIjust of a humanitarian nature; CLIMATICI they also include political E SICUREZZA and security risks INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOthat directly affect KAITAEuropean interests. IR Moreover, TARPTAUTINIS in line with the concept SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAof human security, PĀRMAIŅAS it is clear that many issues UN related STARPTAUTISKĀ to the impact of DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAclimate change FIL-KLIMA on international security areU interlinked S-SIGURTÀ requiring compre - INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERINGhensive policy responses. For example, the attainmentEN INTERNATIONALE of the Millennium VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYDevelopment KLIMATU Goals would be atA considerable BEZPIECZEŃSTWO risk because climate change, MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESif unmitigated, may well CLIMÁTICAS wipe out years of development E SEGURANÇA efforts. INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAThis report focusesKLÍMY on the impact A of climateMEDZINÁRODNÁ change on international secu- BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNErity and considers the SPREMEMBE impact of these international securityIN MEDNARODNAconsequences VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST for Europe’s own security, and how the EU should respond. KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESThe EU is in a unique positionCLIMÁTICAS to respond to the impacts E SEGURANÇA of climate change INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERINGon international security, given its leading roleEN in development,INTERNATIONALE global VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSclimate policy and the wide array of tools and ÉSinstruments NEMZETKÖZI at its disposal. BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIMoreover, the security challengeCLIMATICI plays to Europe’s E SICUREZZA strengths, with its INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOcomprehensive approach KAITA to conflict IR prevention, TARPTAUTINIS crisis management and SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATApost-conflict reconstruction,PĀRMAIŅAS and as a key proponentUN STARPTAUTISKĀ of effective multi- DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAlateralism. KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 2 3 — CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY INTRODUCTION

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASThe European UN SecuritySTARPTAUTISKĀ Strategy recognised the link betweenDROŠĪBA global KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMAwarming U S-SIGURTÀ and competition for natural INTERNAZZJONALI resources while the Communication IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING“Europe EN in the INTERNATIONALEWorld” highlighted the eff ects of globalisation VEILIGHEID on external KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWOrelations. MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICEThe report ŞI considersSECURITATEA how the full range INTERNAŢIONALĂ of EU instruments, including SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ Community and CFSP/ESDP action, can be used alongside mitigation and ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A adaptationMEDZINÁRODNÁ policies to address the security risks. BEZPEČNOSŤ It also considers the impli- PODNEBNE SPREMEMBEcations for the IN intensifi MEDNARODNA cation of political dialogue with VARNOST third countries. PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGA post-2012 OCH agreement INTERNATIONELL has to be developed by the end SÄKERHET of 2009 and all KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICASlevers of EU Eforeign SEGURANÇA relations must work towards INTERNACIONAL this end. ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSThe report ÉS concludes NEMZETKÖZI that it is in Europe’s self interest BIZTONSÁG to address the secu- ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIrity implications E SICUREZZA of climate change with aINTERNAZIONALE series of measures: at the level CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA ofIR the EU,TARPTAUTINIS in bilateral relations and at the multilateral SAUGUMAS level, in mutually KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASsupportive UN ways. STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ Although this report addresses the impact of climate change on inter- ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣnational security, ΚΑΙ the EU’s responseΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ will be conditioned ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ by the impact CLIMATE CHANGE ofAND climate changeINTERNATIONAL on Europe itself. Climate change willSECURITY heavily aff ect CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUESEurope’s natural ET environment SÉCURITÉ and nearly allINTERNATIONALE sections of society and the CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASeconomy. UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 4 THREATS

CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE Center Danish Polar : Henning Thing, Photo KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINISTHREATS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAhe effects ofPĀRMAIŅAS climate change are being felt UN now: STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLATtemperatures FIL-KLIMA are rising, icecaps and glaciersU S-SIGURTÀ are INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERINGmelting and extreme weather events are becoming EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYmore frequent KLIMATU and more intense. A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO The following MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESsection outlines some ofCLIMÁTICAS the forms of conflicts driven E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILEby climate change which CLIMATICE may occur in different ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAregions of the world.KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGi) Conflict over resources OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESReduction of arable land,CLIMÁTICAS widespread shortage ofE SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERINGwater, diminishing food and fish stocks, increasedEN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSflooding and prolonged droughts are alreadyÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIhappening in many parts CLIMATICI of the world. Climate E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOchange will alter rainfall KAITA patterns and furtherIR reduceTARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAavailable freshwater PĀRMAIŅAS by as much as 20 to 30% UN in STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAcertain regions. KLÍMY A drop in agricultural A MEDZINÁRODNÁ productivity BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗwill lead to, or worsen, ΤΟΥ food-insecurity ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ in least devel- ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATEoped countries and CHANGE an unsustainable increase AND in food INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY prices across the board. Water shortage in particular CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATAhas the potential PĀRMAIŅASto cause civil unrest and to lead UN to STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA significant economic losses, even in robust econo- IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAmies. The consequences FIL-KLIMA will be even more U intense S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYin areas under KLIMATU strong demographic A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO pressure. The MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESoverall effect is that climate CLIMÁTICAS change will fuel existing E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILEconflicts over depleting CLIMATICE resources, especially ŞI where SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAaccess to those KLÍMY resources is politicised. A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAii) Economic KLÍMY damage and Arisk toMEDZINÁRODNÁ coastal BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗcities and ΤΟΥ critical infrastructureΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY It has been estimated that a business as usual scenario PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNEin dealing with climate SPREMEMBE change could cost the world IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGeconomy up to 20% of global GDP per year, OCH whereas INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 4 5 — CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREATS

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWOthe cost of effective concerted action MIĘDZYNARODOWEcan be limited to 1%. Coastal zones ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICASare the home E of SEGURANÇA about one fifth of the world’s INTERNACIONAL population, a number set ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICEto rise inŞI the SECURITATEA years ahead. Mega-cities, with INTERNAŢIONALĂ their supporting infrastruc- SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A ture,MEDZINÁRODNÁ such as port facilities and oil refineries, BEZPEČNOSŤare often located by the sea ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBEor in river deltas. IN Sea-level MEDNARODNA rise and the increase in the VARNOST frequency and PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGintensity OCH of natural INTERNATIONELL disasters pose a serious threat to theseSÄKERHET regions and KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAStheir economic E prospects.SEGURANÇA The East coasts of INTERNACIONALChina and India as well as the ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERINGCaribbean EN region INTERNATIONALE and Central America would be particularly VEILIGHEID affected. An KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSincrease ÉSin disasters NEMZETKÖZI and humanitarian crises will leadBIZTONSÁG to immense pres- ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIsure on the E resources SICUREZZA of donor countries, INTERNAZIONALE including capacities for emer- CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA gencyIR reliefTARPTAUTINIS operations. SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASiii) UNLoss of territorySTARPTAUTISKĀ and border disputes DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣScientists project ΚΑΙ major changes ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ to the landmass duringΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ this century. ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE RecedingAND coastlines INTERNATIONAL and submergence of large areas couldSECURITY result in loss CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUESof territory, including ET entireSÉCURITÉ countries such INTERNATIONALE as small island states. More CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASdisputes UNover land STARPTAUTISKĀ and maritime borders and other territorial DROŠĪBA rights are KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMAlikely. U There S-SIGURTÀ might be a need to revisit INTERNAZZJONALI existing rules of international law, IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWOparticularly the Law of the Sea, as regards MIĘDZYNARODOWE the resolution of territorial and ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE border disputes. A further dimension of competition for energy resources ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICASlies in potential E conflictSEGURANÇA over resources in Polar INTERNACIONAL regions which will become SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ exploitable as a consequence of global warming. Desertification could ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A triggerMEDZINÁRODNÁ a vicious circle of degradation, migration BEZPEČNOSŤ and conflicts over terri- KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAStory and UN borders STARPTAUTISKĀ that threatens the political stability of DROŠĪBA countries and KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A regions.MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 6 THREATS

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNAiv) Environmentally-induced KLIMATU migration A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGERThose parts of the populations that alreadyOG sufferDEN from INTERNATIONALE poor health condi- SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗtions, unemployment ΤΟΥ or social ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ exclusion are rendered more ΚΑΙ vulnerable ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ to ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATEthe effects of climateCHANGE change, which couldAND amplify INTERNATIONAL or trigger migration SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTSwithin and between countries. CLIMATIQUES The UN predicts that there ET will SÉCURITÉ be millions INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIOof «environmental» CLIMÁTICO migrants by 2020 with climateY LA change SEGURIDAD as one of the INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSEDmajor drivers of this phenomenon. SomeJA countries RAHVUSVAHELINE that are extremely JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOSvulnerable to climate change are already JA calling KANSAINVÄLINEN for international recog- TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTSnition of such environmentally-induced CLIMATIQUES migration. Such ET migration SÉCURITÉ may INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE increase conflicts in transit and destination areas. Europe must expect ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTIsubstantially increased migratory CLIMATICI pressure. E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOv) Situations KAITAof fragility and radicalizationIR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAClimate change FIL-KLIMA may significantly increase U instabilityS-SIGURTÀ in weak or failing INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERINGstates by over-stretching the already limited capacityEN INTERNATIONALE of governments to VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYrespond effectively KLIMATU to the challenges A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO they face. The inability of a govern- MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESment to meet the needs CLIMÁTICAS of its population as a whole E or SEGURANÇA to provide protec- INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILEtion in the face of climate CLIMATICE change-induced hardship ŞI SECURITATEAcould trigger frustra- INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ tion, lead to tensions between different ethnic and religious groups within ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNEcountries and to political SPREMEMBE radicalisation. This could destabiliseIN MEDNARODNA countries VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST and even entire regions. KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 6 7 — CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY THREATS

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕvi) НА Tension КЛИМАТА over energy supply И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA OneKLIMATU of the most significant A potentialMEZINÁRODNÍ conflicts over resources arises fromBEZPEČNOST intensified competition ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGERover access to, and control OG over, DEN energy INTERNATIONALEresources. That in itself is, and will continue SIKKERHED to be, a cause KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗof ΤΟΥinstability. However,ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ because much of theΚΑΙ world’s ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ hydrocarbon reserves areΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ in regions vulne- ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATErable CHANGE to the impacts of climateAND change INTERNATIONAL and because many oil and gas producing SECURITY states already CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTSface significant CLIMATIQUES social economic and demographic ET SÉCURITÉ challenges, instability INTERNATIONALE is likely to increase. This CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIOhas theCLIMÁTICO potential to feed back intoY LAgreater SEGURIDAD energy insecurity and greater INTERNACIONAL competition for resources. EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSEDA possible wider use of nuclearJA energyRAHVUSVAHELINE for power generation might raise new JULGEOLEKconcerns about pro- KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOSliferation, in the context JA of a non-proliferationKANSAINVÄLINEN regime that is already under TURVALLISUUS pressure. As previously ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTSinaccessible CLIMATIQUESregions open up due to the effectsET SÉCURITÉ of climate change, theINTERNATIONALE scramble for resources will CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSintensify. ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO vii)KAITA Pressure on international IR TARPTAUTINIS governance SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATAThe PĀRMAIŅAS multilateral system is at risk ifUN the international STARPTAUTISKĀ community fails to address the threatsDROŠĪBA outlined KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLAabove. FIL-KLIMA Climate change impacts U willS-SIGURTÀ fuel the politics of resentment INTERNAZZJONALI between those most respon- IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERINGsible for climate change and those EN most INTERNATIONALE affected by it. Impacts of climate mitigation VEILIGHEID policies (or KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATUpolicy failures) will A thus BEZPIECZEŃSTWO drive political tension nationally and internationally. MIĘDZYNARODOWE The potential rift not ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕESonly divides CLIMÁTICAS North and South but there E SEGURANÇAwill also be a South - South INTERNACIONALdimension particularly as the ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILEChinese andCLIMATICE Indian share of global ŞI emissions SECURITATEA rises. The already burdened INTERNAŢIONALĂ international security SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMYarchitecture will be A put underMEDZINÁRODNÁ increasing pressure. BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAReference: FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI World in Transition – Climate ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYChange as a Security KLIMATU Risk, A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕESGerman Advisory Council on CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL Global Change, Springer Verlag, SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILEBerlin, 2007. CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATAConflict constellations PĀRMAIŅAS in selected hotspots UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENAClimate KLÍMY induced degradation A of MEDZINÁRODNÁClimate induced decline in food BEZPEČNOSŤHotspot ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗfreshwater ΤΟΥ resources ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣproduction ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Climate induced increase in storm Environmentally induced migration PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNEand flood disasters SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 8 GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIGEOGRAPHICAL CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA EXAMPLES INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOn many regions, climate KAITA change is fuelling IR one TARPTAUTINIS or more of the threats identifi ed above. SAUGUMAS The following sections KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAIillustrate how climatePĀRMAIŅAS change is multiplying existingUN pressuresSTARPTAUTISKĀ in various regions around the world.DROŠĪBA Since the IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAEU’s neighbours includeFIL-KLIMA some of the most vulnerableU S-SIGURTÀ regions to climate change, INTERNAZZJONALI e.g. North Africa and the Middle KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERINGEast, migratory pressure at the European Union’s EN borders INTERNATIONALE and political instability and confl icts VEILIGHEID could increase in ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYthe future. ThisKLIMATU could also have a Asignifi BEZPIECZEŃSTWO cant impact on Europe’s energy supply MIĘDZYNARODOWE routes. ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL1. Africa SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSAfrica is one of the ÉS continents NEMZETKÖZI most vulnerable to climate BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIchange because ofE multipleSICUREZZA stresses and low INTERNAZIONALE adap- KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA tiveIR capacity. TARPTAUTINIS In North Africa and the Sahel, SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASincreasing UN drought, STARPTAUTISKĀ water scarcity and land DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA overuse will degrade soils and could lead to a ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY Aloss MEDZINÁRODNÁ of 75% of arable, rain-fed land. The Nile Delta BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣcould be at risk from both ΚΑΙ sea-level ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ rise and salinisa- ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGEtion in agriculturalAND areasINTERNATIONAL while 12 to 15% of arable land SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUEScould be lost through ET sea-level SÉCURITÉ rise in this century INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASwith 5 million peopleUN aff STARPTAUTISKĀ ected by 2050. Already today, DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMAclimate change U is havingS-SIGURTÀ a major impact on the INTERNAZZJONALI confl ict in ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATUand aroundA BEZPIECZEŃSTWO Darfur. In the Horn of Africa reduced rainfall MIĘDZYNARODOWE and ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICASincreasing temperatures will E have SEGURANÇA a signifi cant negative impact INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILEon a region highly vulnerable CLIMATICE to confl ict. In southern ŞI SECURITATEAAfrica, droughts are contributing INTERNAŢIONALĂ to ZMENApoor harvests, leadingKLÍMY to food insecurity A inMEDZINÁRODNÁ several areas with millions of people expected BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ to face food shortages. Migration in this region, but also migration from other regions KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAthrough Northern PĀRMAIŅASAfrica to reach Europe (transit migration)UN STARPTAUTISKĀ is likely to intensify. In Africa, DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAand elsewhere, KLÍMYclimate change is expectedA MEDZINÁRODNÁ to have a negative eff ect on health, in parti- BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗcular due to the spreadΤΟΥ of vector-borne ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ diseases further aggravating ΚΑΙ tensions.ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 8 9 — CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА2. MiddleКЛИМАТА East И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥWater systemsΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ in the Middle East ΚΑΙ are already ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGEunder intense stress. AND Roughly two-thirdsINTERNATIONAL of the Arab SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTSworld CLIMATIQUES depends on sources outside ET their SÉCURITÉ borders for INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICOwater. The Jordan and Y Yarmuk LA riversSEGURIDAD are expected INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL to see considerable reduction in their fl ows aff ecting KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSEDIsrael, the Palestinian JA territoriesRAHVUSVAHELINE and Jordan. Existing JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOStensions over access JA to KANSAINVÄLINEN water are almost certain to inten- TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTSsify inCLIMATIQUES this region leading to further ET politicalSÉCURITÉ instability INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSwith detrimental implications ÉS for NEMZETKÖZI Europe’s energy security BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTIand otherCLIMATICI interests. Water supplyE SICUREZZA in Israel might fall by 60%INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITAover this century. IRConsequently, TARPTAUTINIS a signifi cant drop in crop yields SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASis projected for an area thatUN is already STARPTAUTISKĀ largely arid or semi-arid. DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMASignifi cant decreases U are S-SIGURTÀexpected to hit Turkey, Iraq, INTERNAZZJONALI Syria and Saudi IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERINGArabia and thus aff ect stabilityEN inINTERNATIONALE a vitally strategic region for Europe. VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA 3.INTERNACIONAL South Asia ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICISea-level rise Emay SICUREZZA threaten the habitat of millionsINTERNAZIONALE of people as 40% of CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINISAsia’s population (almost 2 billion) lives withinSAUGUMAS 60km from the KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS coastline. Water stress and loss of agricultural productivity KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UNwill make STARPTAUTISKĀ it diﬃ cult for Asia to feed its growing DROŠĪBApopulation ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁwho will additionally be exposed BEZPEČNOSŤ to an increase of infec- ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣtious diseases.ΚΑΙ Changes ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ in the monsoon rains ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ and decrease ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND ofINTERNATIONAL melt water from the Himalayas will aff SECURITYect more than CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ1 billion people. INTERNATIONALE Confl icts over remaining CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀresources and unmanaged migration DROŠĪBA will KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀlead to instabilityINTERNAZZJONALI in a region that is an IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWOimportant economic MIĘDZYNARODOWE partner of Europe with ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇAfactors of production INTERNACIONAL and distribution concen- ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEAtrated along vulnerable INTERNAŢIONALĂ coastlines. SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 10 GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ4. Central НА Asia КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗCentral Asia ΤΟΥ is another ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ region severely ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATEaffected byCHANGE climate change. AND An INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTSincreasing shortage CLIMATIQUES of water, which ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIOis both a key CLIMÁTICO resource for agriculture Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSEDand a strategic resource for electricity JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOSgeneration, is already noticeable. JA TheKANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOSglaciers in Tajikistan lost a third ofJA their KANSAINVÄLINEN area TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTSin the second half of CLIMATIQUES the 20th century alone, ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSwhile Kyrgyzstan has lost over a 1000 glaciers ÉS in NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIthe last four decades. CLIMATICI There is thus considerable E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOadditional potential KAITA for confl ict in IRa region TARPTAUTINIS whose strategic, political and economic SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAdevelopments PĀRMAIŅAS as well as increasing trans-regional UN STARPTAUTISKĀ challenges impact directly or DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAindirectly onFIL-KLIMA EU interests. U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY5. Latin AAmerica MEDZINÁRODNÁ and the Caribbean BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET In drier areas of Latin America climate change will lead to salinisation and deserti- ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESfi cation of agriculturalCLIMÁTICAS land and to decreasing E SEGURANÇA productivity of important cropsINTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERINGand livestock. This will EN have INTERNATIONALE adverse consequences for food VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSsecurity. Sea-level riseÉS is projected NEMZETKÖZI to cause increased risk BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICIof fl ooding in low-lying E SICUREZZA areas. Increases in sea INTERNAZIONALE surface KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITAtemperature IR TARPTAUTINIS due to climate change are projected to SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAShave adverse UN eff STARPTAUTISKĀ ects on coral reefs, and cause DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁshifts in the location of fi sh stocks. LatinBEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣAmerican andΚΑΙ Caribbean ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ countries are ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE ANDalready subjectINTERNATIONAL to the detrimental eff ects, SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUESincluding many ET extreme SÉCURITÉ events, associated INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE with the El Niño cycle. Changes in rainfall KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASpatterns UN and the STARPTAUTISKĀ disappearance of glaciers are DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMAprojected U toS-SIGURTÀ signifi cantly aff ect water INTERNAZZJONALI availability ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU Afor BEZPIECZEŃSTWO human consumption, agriculture and MIĘDZYNARODOWE energy ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICASgeneration, for example E SEGURANÇA in the Andes region. Countries INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICEin the Caribbean ŞI and SECURITATEA the Gulf of Mexico are already INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY increasinglyA MEDZINÁRODNÁ aff ected by major hurricanes. This BEZPEČNOSŤ will KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅASbe further exacerbated UN STARPTAUTISKĀ by climate change and result DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMYin social A and MEDZINÁRODNÁ political tensions in a region with often weak BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ governanceΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ structures. ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 10 11 — CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY GEOGRAPHICAL EXAMPLES

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА6. КЛИМАТАThe Arctic И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥThe rapidΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ melting of the polar iceΚΑΙ caps, in particular,ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ the Arctic, is openingΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ up new ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGEwaterways and internationalAND tradeINTERNATIONAL routes. In addition, the increased accessibility SECURITY of the CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTSenormous CLIMATIQUES hydrocarbon resources ET in theSÉCURITÉ Arctic region is changingINTERNATIONALE the geo-strategic CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICOdynamics of the region Y with LA potential SEGURIDAD consequences for international INTERNACIONAL stability and Euro- EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSEDpean security interests. JA TheRAHVUSVAHELINE resulting new strategic interests are illustrated JULGEOLEK by the recent KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK planting of the Russian fl ag under the North Pole. There is an increasing need to address ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOSthe growing debate JA overKANSAINVÄLINEN territorial claims and access to new tradeTURVALLISUUS routes by diff erent CHANGEMENTScountries CLIMATIQUES which challenge Europe’s ET ability SÉCURITÉ to eff ectively secure INTERNATIONALE its trade and resource CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSinterests in the region and ÉS may put NEMZETKÖZI pressure on its relations with key BIZTONSÁGpartners. ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ University of Copenhagen RINK project, Kurt H. Kjær, ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland © Greenland Morris Jesup, Cape

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 12 Conclusions and Recommendations

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS CONCLUSIONSÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG AND CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IRRECOMMENDATIONS TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERINGhe impact of climate change on international EN security INTERNATIONALE is not a problem of the future but alreadyVEILIGHEID of KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID Ttoday and one which will stay with us. Even if progress is made in reducing the emissions of green- ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYhouse gases, KLIMATU weather patterns have A alreadyBEZPIECZEŃSTWO changed, global temperatures have MIĘDZYNARODOWE already risen and, above ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESall, climate change is already CLIMÁTICAS being felt around the globe.E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAThe active role KLÍMYof the EU in the international A MEDZINÁRODNÁ climate change negotiations is vital and mustBEZPEČNOSŤ continue. The PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNEEU has demonstrated leadershipSPREMEMBE both in international IN negotiations, MEDNARODNA in particular by advocating theVARNOST 2°C KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGtarget, and with its far-reaching decisions on OCH domestic climateINTERNATIONELL and energy policies. Yet, the EU cannot SÄKERHET act ALTERAÇÕESalone. In a changing international CLIMÁTICAS political landscape, E majorSEGURANÇA emitters and emerging INTERNACIONAL economies will also ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL have to be engaged and commit to an ambitious global climate agreement under the UN framework. KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSIn the EU’s response, special consideration needs ÉS to be NEMZETKÖZIgiven to the US, China and India andBIZTONSÁG what the CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIimplications mean for the EU’sCLIMATICI long term relations Ewith SICUREZZA Russia. The recommendations INTERNAZIONALE below should be KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOcomplemented by further KAITA studies and followedIR upTARPTAUTINIS by coherent EU action plans, aiming at addressingSAUGUMAS the KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATAdifferent dimensions PĀRMAIŅAS of the responses required UNto address STARPTAUTISKĀ the impact of climate change on international DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAsecurity in a comprehensive KLÍMY and effectiveA MEDZINÁRODNÁ manner. The upcoming examination of the BEZPEČNOSŤimplementation of ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗthe European Security ΤΟΥ Strategy, ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ and as appropriate proposals ΚΑΙ to complement ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ it, should take ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑaccount of CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATEthe security dimension CHANGE of climate change. AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE Enhancing capacities at the EU level KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAA first step to address FIL-KLIMA the impact of climate Uchange S-SIGURTÀ on international security INTERNAZZJONALI should be to build up knowl- ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYedge and assess KLIMATU the EU’s own capacities,A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO followed by an improvement in the MIĘDZYNARODOWE prevention of, and pre- ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESparedness for early responses CLIMÁTICAS to, disasters and conflicts. E SEGURANÇA Financial implications for suchINTERNACIONAL responses should SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILEbe identified and also beCLIMATICE considered in the EU’s ŞIbudget SECURITATEA review. INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 12 13 — CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY Conclusions and Recommendations

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕPossible actions НА that КЛИМАТАcould be developed include:И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ZMĚNA• Intensify KLIMATU EU capacities for research,A MEZINÁRODNÍ analysis, monitoring and early warning BEZPEČNOST and Watch Lists including ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGERthe Institute for Security OG Studies, DEN the EU Satellite INTERNATIONALE Centre (EUSC), the EU Joint Situation SIKKERHED Centre (SITCEN), KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗthe ΤΟΥ EU Network ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ of Energy Correspondents ΚΑΙ (NESCO), theΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ Global Monitoring forΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ Environment and ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATESecurity CHANGE and Joint Research AND Centres. MonitoringINTERNATIONAL and early warning needs to include SECURITY in particular CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTSsituations of state CLIMATIQUES fragility and political radicalisation, ET SÉCURITÉ tensions over resources INTERNATIONALE and energy supplies, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIOenvironmental CLIMÁTICO and socio-economic Y LAstresses, SEGURIDAD threats to critical infrastructures INTERNACIONAL and economic assets, EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSEDborder disputes, impact on JAhuman RAHVUSVAHELINE rights and potential migratory movements. JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS• Further build up EU and JAMember KANSAINVÄLINEN State planning and capabilities including TURVALLISUUS civil protection and the CHANGEMENTSuse of crisis management CLIMATIQUES and disaster response ET instrumentsSÉCURITÉ (civil and INTERNATIONALE military) to contribute to the CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁSresponse to the security risks posed ÉS by climate NEMZETKÖZI change. BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO• Commission KAITA further work toIR look, region-by-region,TARPTAUTINIS in more detail at what theSAUGUMAS security implications KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATAare likelyPĀRMAIŅAS to be and how they will affect UN EU interests.STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERINGEU multilateral leadership to promote EN global INTERNATIONALE climate security VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANYClimate KLIMATU change is a key elementA BEZPIECZEŃSTWO of international relations and will be increasinglyMIĘDZYNARODOWE so in the coming years, ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕESincluding its securityCLIMÁTICAS dimension. If recognised, E SEGURANÇA it can even become a positive INTERNACIONAL driver for improving and ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILEreforming global CLIMATICE governance. As it is ŞI a global SECURITATEA problem, the EU is advocating INTERNAŢIONALĂ a multilateral response. SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENABuilding KLÍMY on the successful A Bali conferenceMEDZINÁRODNÁ in Dec 2007 the EU needs to continue BEZPEČNOSŤ and strengthen its lead- ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNEership towards SPREMEMBE an ambitious post-2012 agreement IN MEDNARODNA in 2009, including both mitigation VARNOST and adaptation PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRINGaction by all countries as a key contribution OCH to INTERNATIONELLaddressing climate security. SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESPossible actions CLIMÁTICAS that could be developed include:E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS• Focus attention on the security risks ÉS related NEMZETKÖZI to climate change in the multilateral BIZTONSÁG arena; in partic- ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTIular within the CLIMATICI UN Security Council, theE G8SICUREZZA as well as the UN specialised INTERNAZIONALE bodies (among others by CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATOaddressing KAITA a possible need IR to strengthen TARPTAUTINIS certain rules of international law, SAUGUMAS including the Law of KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATAthe Sea).PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 14 Conclusions and Recommendations

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ• Enhance international НА cooperation КЛИМАТА on the detection И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА and monitoring of the security threats СИГУРНОСТ related ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST ZMĚNAto climate change,KLIMATU and on prevention, A preparedness, MEZINÁRODNÍ mitigation and response capacities. BEZPEČNOST Promote KLIMAÆNDRINGERthe development of regional security OG scenarios DEN for differentINTERNATIONALE levels of climate change and their SIKKERHED impli- KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED cations for international security. ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE• Consider environmentally-triggered CHANGE AND additional migratoryINTERNATIONAL stress in the further development SECURITY of a CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTScomprehensive European CLIMATIQUES migration policy, in liaison withET all SÉCURITÉ relevant international INTERNATIONALE bodies. EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK KLIIMAMUUTUSEDCooperation with third countries JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS Climate change calls for revisiting and reinforcing EU cooperation and political dialogue instruments, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTSgiving more attention to the CLIMATIQUES impact of climate change on ET security. SÉCURITÉ This could lead toINTERNATIONALE greater prioritisa- ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁStion and enhanced support for climate change ÉSmitigation NEMZETKÖZI and adaptation, good governance, BIZTONSÁG natural CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIresource management, technology CLIMATICI transfer, trans-boundary E SICUREZZA environmental cooperation INTERNAZIONALE (inter alia water KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATOand land), institutional KAITA strengthening and IR capacity TARPTAUTINIS building for crisis management. SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLAPossible actions thatFIL-KLIMA could be developed include: U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING• Further integrate adaptation and resilience EN to climateINTERNATIONALE change into EU regional strategies VEILIGHEID (for ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANYexample KLIMATU Northern Dimension, A EuropeanBEZPIECZEŃSTWO Neighbourhood Policy, EU-Africa MIĘDZYNARODOWE Strategy, Barcelona ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕESProcess, Black Sea CLIMÁTICAS Synergy, EU-Central Asia Strategy, E SEGURANÇA Middle East action plan). INTERNACIONAL Special attention SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILEshould be given to theCLIMATICE most vulnerable regions ŞI and SECURITATEA potential climate security hotINTERNAŢIONALĂ spots. The Global ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENAClimate Change KLÍMY Alliance between A theMEDZINÁRODNÁ EU and the most vulnerable developing countries BEZPEČNOSŤ should be PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNEbuilt upon. SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES• Develop an EU Arctic CLIMÁTICAS policy based on the evolving E SEGURANÇA geo-strategy of the Arctic INTERNACIONALregion, taking into ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL account i.a. access to resources and the opening of new trade routes. KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS• Examine the security implications of climate ÉS change NEMZETKÖZI in dialogue with third countries BIZTONSÁG including CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE CAMBIAMENTIthrough the sharing of analyses.CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY — 14 15 — CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY EUROPEAN COMMISSION ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ НА КЛИМАТА И МЕЖДУНАРОДНА СИГУРНОСТ QC-81-08-248-EN-C ZMĚNA KLIMATU A MEZINÁRODNÍ BEZPEČNOST KLIMAÆNDRINGER OG DEN INTERNATIONALE SIKKERHED ΑΛΛΑΓΗ ΤΟΥ ΚΛΙΜΑΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΕΘΝΗΣ ΑΣΦΑΛΕΙΑ CLIMATE CHANGE AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y LA SEGURIDAD INTERNACIONAL KLIIMAMUUTUSED JA RAHVUSVAHELINE JULGEOLEK ILMASTONMUUTOS JA KANSAINVÄLINEN TURVALLISUUS CHANGEMENTSwww.europa.eu CLIMATIQUES ET SÉCURITÉ INTERNATIONALE ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA IL-BIDLA FIL-KLIMA U S-SIGURTÀ INTERNAZZJONALI KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ZMIANY KLIMATU A BEZPIECZEŃSTWO MIĘDZYNARODOWE ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL SCHIMBĂRILE CLIMATICE ŞI SECURITATEA INTERNAŢIONALĂ ZMENA KLÍMY A MEDZINÁRODNÁ BEZPEČNOSŤ PODNEBNE SPREMEMBE IN MEDNARODNA VARNOST KLIMATFÖRÄNDRING OCH INTERNATIONELL SÄKERHET ALTERAÇÕES CLIMÁTICAS E SEGURANÇA INTERNACIONAL KLIMAATVERANDERING EN INTERNATIONALE VEILIGHEID ÉGHAJLATVÁLTOZÁS ÉS NEMZETKÖZI BIZTONSÁG CAMBIAMENTI CLIMATICI E SICUREZZA INTERNAZIONALE KLIMATO KAITA IR TARPTAUTINIS SAUGUMAS KLIMATA PĀRMAIŅAS UN STARPTAUTISKĀ DROŠĪBA

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