REPUBLIQUE DU CAMEROUN REPUBLIC OF Paix-Travail-Patrie Peace-Work-Fatherland ------OBSERVATOIRE NATIONAL SUR NATIONAL OBSERVATORY LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ON CLIMATE CHANGE ------DIRECTION GENERALE DIRECTORATE GENERAL

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ONACC

www.onacc.cm; [email protected]; Tel : (+237) 693 370 504 / 654 392 529

BULLETIN N° 56

Dekadal climate alerts and probable impacts for the period 11th to 20th september 2020

th 10 september 2020

© ONACC September 2020, all rights reserved Supervision Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC).

Production Team (ONACC) Prof. Dr. Eng. AMOUGOU Joseph Armathé, Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC) and Lecturer in the Department of Geography at the University of Yaounde I, Cameroon. Eng. FORGHAB Patrick MBOMBA, Deputy Director, National Observatory on Climate Change (ONACC). BATHA Romain Armand Soleil, PhD student and Technical staff, ONACC. NDJELA MBEIH Gaston Evarice, M.Sc. in Economics and Environmental Management. MEYONG René Ramsès, PhD student in Physical Geography (Climatology/Biogeography)/ Technical staff, ONACC ANYE Victorine Ambo, Administrative staff, ONACC

ELONG Julien Aymar, M.Sc. in Business and Environmental law.

I. Introduction The present Dekadal Alert Bulletin N°56 has been elaborated from spatial data collected from major international centres working daily in the field of weather forecasting. These include the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) of the University of Colombia (USA); the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-USA; AccuWeather (US weather forecasting agency); the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD); spatial data from 1979 to 2018, relating to Atlantic and Pacific Ocean Surface Temperatures (OST), the intensities of El-Niño/ Nina in the tropical Pacific, rainfall and temperature data from local stations. In this regard, ONACC would like to express its gratitude to all these international institutions and the MND for the goodwill shown in sharing these data and information.. The said dekadal alert reveals the historical climatic conditions from 1979 to 2018, as well as the climatic forecasts for all the five Agro ecological zones of Cameroon, for the period from 11 to 20 September 2020. It also highlights the risks, threats and potential impacts expected in Cameroon's socio-economic development sectors. This Bulletin also evaluates the forecasts developed for the previous dekad (1-10 September 2020). This dekad (11-20 September, 2020) will be characterized by monsoon moisture-bearing from the South Atlantic Ocean in a south-west-north-east direction. In Cameroon, this monsoon will continue its action over the entire national territory, especially in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (Far North and North Regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone (Adamawa Region), the Bimodal Rainfall Forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions), the High Plateaux zone (West and North-West Regions) and the Coastal zone (Littoral and South-West Regions).

II. FORECAST SUMMARY

II.1. For Temperatures The following localities have a high probability of recording an increase in average maximum temperatures compared to histori cal averages. These are: - Tibati, Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Ngaoundéré, Tignère and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - Eséka, Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatélé, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaoundé, Obala and Bafia, in the Centre Region; - Lomié, Bétaré-Oya, Bélabo, Batouri, Mbintom, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, in the East Region; - Djoum, Ebolowa, Kribi and Ambam, in the South Region; - , , Malantouen, , Bazou, , Massagam and , in the ; - Benakuma, in the North-West Region; - Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok, in the South West Region; - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangué, , Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga, in the Littoral Region. The following localities have a high probability of recording a decrease in minimum temperatures compared to historical avera ges, these are: - Mora, Maroua and Mokolo, in the Far North Region; - Touboro and Guider, in the North Region; - Tignère, Ngaoundéré, Mbé and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region; - Widikum and Benakuma, in the North-West Region. The following localities have a high probability of experiencing an increase in temperature differences during this dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020. These are: - Tignère, Ngaoundéré and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Benakuma, in the North-West Region.

II.2. For precipitations

A high probability of recording rainfall amounts much higher than the historical average compared to the average rainfall recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Buea, in the South-West Region. A high probability of recording rainfall amounts higher than the historical average compared to the average rainfall recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 September 2020 in: - Mindourou, in the East Region; - Kribi, Campo, Lolodorf and Ebolowa, in the South Region; - Benakuma, Bali and Santa, in the North West Region; - Foumban, , Makam, Foumbot, , Bazou, , , , and Bangangté, in the West Region; - Mbanga, in the Littoral Region.

2 NB1 : This dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 will be marked by rainfall amounts around the average recorded during the last dekad in the West, North-West, South-West and Littoral Regions, with a high risk of recording cases of floods and landslides in many localities of the said Regions.

III Climate forecasts for the five agro-ecological zones for the period from 11th to 20th september 2020

1) For precipitations NB2: The dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020 will be marked by a very significant decrease in the quantity During this period we expect : of rainfall in the Sudano-Sahelian zone, in Far North a) In the Sudano-Sahelian zone and North Regions. A high probability of recording: - rainfall amounts around those recorded in the dekad from 1st-10th September, 2020 in Kousséri; below average in Mora, Waza, Maga and Yagoua, Bogo, Mindif, Kaélé and Maroua, in the Far North Region ; -rainfall amounts around those recorded during the dekad from 1st-10th September 2020 in Touboro, Rey-Bouba, Lagdo, Tcholliré and Poli; lower than those recorded during the same dekad in Dembo, Pitoa, Garoua and Guider, in the North Region..

b) In the Guinean high savannah zone High probability of recording rainfall amounts around those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Meiganga, Tignere and Ngaoundéré; lower than those recorded in the last dekad in Banyo and Tibati, in the Adamawa Region. c) In the bimodal rainfall forest zone A high probability of recording precipitation quantities: - around those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Bafia, Yoko, Eséka and Monatélé; lower than those recorded during the same dekad in Ngoro, Nkoteng, Mbalmayo, Yaoundé and Obala, in the Centre Region; - Above average during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Mindourou; around average in Moloundou, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Lomié, Yokadouma, Ngoyla, Garoua Boulai; below average compared to what was recorded during the last dekad in Betaré-Oya, Bélabo, Batouri and Mbintom, in the East Region; -.higher than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Kribi, Campo, Lolodorf and Ebolowa; around average in Zoétélé, Djoum and Sangmélima; below average in Niabizan, Ambam and Akom II and in the South Region.

d) In the high plateaux zone Figure 1: Variation in the quantity of rainfall during the High probability of recording precipitation quantities: current dekad compared to that recorded during the period - higher than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in from 1st to 10th September 2020 Benakuma, Bali and Santa; around average in Nwa, Ndop, Batibo, Ndu, Nkambe, Source : ONACC, september 2020 Nkun, Bamenda and Fundong; below average in Kumbo and Wum, in the North- West Region; NB 3 : -This dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 corresponds to the -higher than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in extension of the rainy season in the Sudano-Sahelian zone (North Foumban, Mbouda, Makam, Foumbot, Dschang, Bazou, Bafang, Bafoussam, and Far-North Regions), the Guinean High Savannah zone Santchou, Bamendjou and Bangangté; around average in Tonga, in the West (Adamawa Region), the High Plateaux (West and North-West Region. Regions), the Monomodal Rain Forest zone ( Littoral and the e) In the monomodal rainfall forest zone South-West Region) A high probability of recording precipitation quantities: -the effective start of the long rainy season in the bimodal rain - much higher than those recorded in the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in forest zone (Centre, South and East Regions), with however a low Buea; around average in Mundemba, Kumba and Nguti; below average in Tiko, intensity of rainfall in the Centre Region, notably in the localities of Eyumojock and Mamfe, in the South-West Region; Ngoro, Nkoteng, Obala, Yaoundé, Eséka and Mbalmayo, as well as - higher than those recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in in the East Region, precisely in the localities of Batouri, Bertoua, Mbanga; around average in Melong, Loum, Mouanko, Yabassi, Edéa, Douala, Bélabo and Bétaré-Oya. This bears witness to the variability of the Pouma, Dibamba, Dibombari, Yingui, Njombe, Penja, Manjo, Ngambe and climate in this Agro-Ecological Zone. Dizangué, in the Littoral Region. NB 4 : During this dekad, there is a high risk of flooding, landslides and muddy flows due to soil saturation in the floodplains of the Littoral, North-West, West and South-West Regions..

3 2) For temperatures a) Maximum Temperatures -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Foumban, Njimom, Based on the historical average maximum temperatures recorded during this Malantouen, Koutaba, Bazou, Foumbot, Massagam and Magba; around the average in dekad over the period from 1979 to 2018, namely 33.58°C in the Far North Mbouda, Dschang, Bafoussam, Bangangté, Tonga, in the West Region;

Region; 32°C in the North Region; 29.2°C in the Adamawa Region; 27°C in the -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Centre Region; 27.22°C in the South Region; 27.8°C in the East Region; 24.7°C Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, in the West Region; 25°C in the North-West Region; 26.78°C in the South-West Idenau, Fontem and Ekok; around average in Nguti, in the South-West Region; Region and 25.67°C in the Littoral Region, there is a high probability of -above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Melong, Nkondjock, recording average maximum temperatures during this period.: Dizangué, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in waza, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga; around the average in Edéa, in the Littoral Region. Kousséri and Kaélé; below average in Maga, Mindif, Yagoua, Bogo, Makari, Maroua and Mora, in the Far North Region; - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Garoua, Tcholliré, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro, Guider; below average in Poli and Dembo, in the North Region;

- higher than the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Tibati, Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Ngaoundéré, Tignère and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region; - above the historical average recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Eséka, Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatélé, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaoundé, Obala and Bafia, in the Centre Region; - above the historical average recorded over the same period from (a) 1979 to 2018 in Lomié, Bétaré-Oya, Bélabo, Batouri, Mbintom, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou; below average in (b) Garoua-Boulai; around average in Moloundou, in the East Region; - higher than the average recorded over the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Djoum, Ebolowa, Kribi and Ambam; around the historical average in Campo, Zoétélé, Nyabizan and Akom II, in the South Region; - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in

Benakuma; around average in Bali, Santa, Furu Awa, Fungom, Wum, Ako, Ndop, Kumbo, Ndu, Munkep, Nwa and Fundong, in

the North West Region;

Figure 2: Variation in mean maximum temperatures during the current dekad (b) compared to those recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 (a) Source : ONACC, september 2020

4 Based on the difference between the average maximum temperatures - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Bali, recorded during the dekad of September 1-10, 2020 and the maximum Kumbo, Munkep, Bamenda, Santa, Wum, Benakuma and Fundong, in the

temperatures predicted for the dekad of September 11-20, 2020, there is North-West Region; st th a high probability of recording average maximum temperatures: - around the average recorded from 1 to 10 September 2020 in Tonga, -Above average for the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Kousséri, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Magba, Massagam, Foumbot, Bafoussam, Waza and Mora; around average in Bogo and Maga; below average in , , Bafang, Bangangté, Dschang, Bazou, Makam, Foumban and Mbouda, in the West Region. Maroua, Yagoua, Mindif and Kaélé, in the Far North Region; -Around the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Dembo, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey-Bouba, Touboro, Garoua, Poli and Tcholliré, in the North Region; -Above average in Meiganga and Banyo during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020; around average in Tibati and Ngaoundéré; below average in Tignere and Ngaoundal, in the Adamawa Region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Yokadouma, Batouri, Ngoyla and Moloundou; below average in

Mindourou, Garoua-Boulai, Abong-Mbang, Bétaré-Oya, Bélabo, Bertoua and Lomié, in the East Region; (a) (b) - Above average in Mbalmayo and Eseka during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020; around average in Nkoteng, Bafia, Ngoro, Obala, Akonolinga, Nanga Eboko, Yoko, Monatélé, Yaoundé, Deuk, Mbandjock and Messondo, in the Centre Region; - Above average in the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Zoétélé, Sangmélima and Ambam; around average in Ebolowa, Akom II, Lolodorf, Nyabizan, Kribi, Djoum and Campo, in the South Region; st th - above the average recorded in the dekad from 1 to 10 September 2020 in Mamfe and Eyumojock; around the average in Tiko, Idenau, Buea, Fontem, Muyuka, Nguti, Limbé and Kumba, in the South-West Region; - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Dizangué, Melong, Yabassi, Nkongsamba, Bare-Bakem, Loum, Manjo, Douala, Ngambè, Ndom, Edéa, Yingui, Nyanon, Pouma, Mbanga and Mouanko, in the Littoral Figure 3: Variation in average maximum temperatures during the dekad (b) Region; compared to the dekad (a): Predicted vs. observed during the dekad (b): September 11-20, 2020 Source : ONACC, september 2020

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Alerts for maximum temperatures

During this dekad from 11 to 20 September 2020, special attention should be paid to certain localities, which have a very high probability of recording an increase in average maximum temperatures, compared to their historical averages recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018. These include: - Tibati, Ngaoundal, Meiganga, Ngaoundéré, Tignère and Banyo, in the Adamawa Region ; - Eséka, Nkoteng, Yoko, Monatélé, Akonolinga, Mbandjock, Mbalmayo, Nanga Eboko, Ngoro, Yaoundé, Obala and Bafia, in the Centre

Region; - Lomié, Bétaré-Oya, Bélabo, Batouri, Mbintom, Ngoyla, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Mindourou, in the East Region; - Djoum, Ebolowa, Kribi and Ambam, in the South Region; - Foumban, Njimom, Malantouen, Koutaba, Bazou, Foumbot, Massagam and Magba, in the West Region; - Benakuma, in the North-West Region; - Mundemba, Buea, Kumba, Dikome Balue, Muyuka, Ekondo Titi, Mamfe, Eyumojock, Bamusso, Limbe, Tiko, Idenau, Fontem and Ekok, in the South-West Region; - - Melong, Nkondjock, Dizangué, Douala, Bare-Bakem, Nkongsamba, Dibombari, Penja, Manjo, Yabassi, Mouanko, Loum and Mbanga, in the Littoral Region.

6 a) Minimum temperatures Based on the historical average of minimum temperatures recorded from 1979 to - around the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Nwa, Bali, Kumbo, 2018, notably 20.6°C in the Far North Region; 20.8°C in the North Region; 17.9°C Santa, Fundong, Bamenda, Widikum and Benakuma, higher than the average in the Adamawa Region; 20.4°C in the Centre Region ; 20.8°C in the South Region; recorded over the same period in Wum, in the North West Region; 20.9°C in the East Region; 18°C in the West Region; 17°C in the North-West - above the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Eyumojock Tiko Region; 21.5°C in the South-West Region and 22.4°C in the Littoral Region, there is Idenau, Muyuka, Kumba, Bamusso, Limbé, Mundemba, Mamfe, Nguti, Buea and a high probability of recording minimum temperatures: Fontem, in the South-West Region; - below the historical average recorded from 1979 to 2018 in Mokolo and Mora; - above the historical average recorded for the same period from 1979-2018 in around average in Maroua, Kousséri Mindif, Yagoua, Bogo, Kaélé and Waza, in Dizangué, Mbanga, Yabassi, Douala, Melong, Manjo, Loum, Penja, the Far North Region; Nkongsamba, Edéa and Mouanko; in the Littoral Region. - around the historical average recorded over the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Poli and Touboro; higher than the average recorded over the same period in Pitoa, Dembo, Rey Bouba Lagdo, Garoua Tcholliré and Guider, in the North Region;

- lower than the historical average recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Tignère, Ngaoundéré, Meiganga, Mbe, Mbakaou and Tibati; around the historical average recorded during the same period in Banyo, in the Adamawa Region ; - above the historical average recorded over the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Yaoundé, Eseka, Monatélé, Mbalmayo, Nkoteng, Nanga Eboko, Ayos, Bafia, Obala, Yoko and Ngoro in the Centre Region; - above the historical average recorded over the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Belabo, Bertoua, Abong-Mbang, Moloundou, Mindourou, Lomié, Batouri, Ngoyla (a) (b) and Yokadouma; below the average recorded over the same period in Garoua- Boulai and Betare Oya, in the East Region; - above the historical average recorded over the same period from 1979 to 2018 in

Ebolowa, Sangmélima, Djoum, Lolodorf, Zoétélé, Campo, Kribi, Akom II, Nyabizan and Ambam in the South Region; - above the historical average recorded over the same period from 1979 to 2018 in Tonga, Bagangté, Foumbot, Magba and Foumban; around the average recorded over the same period in Mbouda, Bafoussam, Dschang, Bafang, Bazou and

Bamendjing, in the West Region

Figure 4: Change in average minimum temperatures during the dekad from 11 to

20 September 2020 (b) compared to averages recorded during the same period from 1979 to 2018 (a) Source : ONACC, september 2020

7 Based on the difference between the average minimum temperatures recorded during the dekad of September 1-10, 2020 and the average - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Benakuma, minimum temperatures predicted for the dekad of September 11-20, 2020, Fundong, Bamenda, Santa, Bali, Nwa, Batibo, Widikum and Kumbo; above there is a high probability of recording mean average minimum the average recorded during the same period in Wum, in the North West temperatures : Region; - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Mora, Mokolo st th -above the average recorded from 1 to 10 September 2020 in Buea, and Maroua; above the average recorded during the same period in Kaélé, Eyumojock Mundemba, Tiko, Kumba Bamusso, Muyuka and Idenau; around Mindif, Maga, Yagoua, Bogo, Maroua and Waza; above the average in the average in Mamfe and Nguti, in the South-West Region -. Mokolo, in the Far North Region; - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Garoua, Pitoa, Lagdo, Rey Bouba, Touboro and Poli; above the average recorded in the same period in Dembo and Guider, in the North Region; - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Meiganga, Ngaoundéré, Tignère, Banyo, Tibati and Mbakaou, in the Adamawa Region; - around the average recorded during the dekad from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Akonolinga, Obala, Mbandjock, Nkoteng, Yaoundé, Yoko, Nanga

Eboko, Monatélé, Eséka, Ngoro and Mbalmayo, above the average recorded (a) during the same period in Bafia, in the Centre Region.; (b) - above the average recorded in the period from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Abong -Mbang, Bertoua, Batouri, Yokadouma, Lomié, Belabo, Mindourou, Ngoyla, Moloundou and Yokadouma; around the average recorded in the same period in Betaré Oya and Garoua-Boulai, in the East Region; - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Lolodorf, Kribi, Campo, Ambam, Akom II and Nyabizan, and Ebolowa; above the average recorded during the same period in Djoum, Zoétéle and Sangmélima, in the South Region; - around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Yabassi,

Douala, Mouanko, Nkongsamba, Loum, Pendja, Melong, Manjo, Edéa and Dizangué in the Littoral Region ; -around the average recorded from 1st to 10th September 2020 in Tonga and Figure 5: Variation in minimum temperatures predicted for the dekad from 11-20

Bangangté, Dschang, Bazou, Bafoussam, Mbouda, Bamendjou, September, 2020 (b) compared to the dekad from 1-10 September, 2020 (a). Source : ONACC, september 2020 Bamendjing, Bafang, Foumban, Foumbot and Magba, in the West Region; 8

Alerts for minimum temperatures

During this dekad from 11th to 20th September 2020, special attention should be paid to those localities with a very high probability of recording a decrease in average minimum temperatures, compared to their historical averages, which could also lead to cold spells.

These include the localities of: - Maroua and Mora, in the Far North Region ;

- Ngaoundéré, Banyo and Meiganga, in the Adamawa Region; - Fundong, Kumbo, Nwa, Bali, Bamenda and Santa, in the North-West Region; - - Dschang, Mbouda, Bafang, Bamendjing and Batcham in the West Region..

9 IV. Risks and alerts on socio-economic sectors a) In the agricultural sector: • Landslides, due to soil congestion in many localities in the the North-West, West, A high risk of recording cases of: South-West and Littoral Regions; • destruction of crops in fields and plantations, fruit trees etc., in the floodplains of the • Flooding in some settlements and anarchically developed areas, especially in the South- North-West, South-West, West and Littoral Regions in flood-risk areas; West and the Littoral Regions

•degradation of stocks or reserves of agricultural products, as well as other speculations that d): In the livestock sector have reached maturity but have not yet been harvested (maize, groundnuts, beans, etc.), as a A high risk of registering: result of humidity or heavy rains in the North-West, South-West, West and Littoral - many cases of epizootic diseases, due to a sharp decrease in minimum temperatures in some Regions ; localities in the West, North-West, South-West Regions; • rot of tubers and roots in the soil due to soil congestion in the Northwest, - degradation of pastures in many localities in the West, North-West and South-West, Southwest, West and Littoral Regions; Adamaoua, Far North and North Regions as a result of the proliferation of weeds due to • increased weeds and diseases following the extension of rains in many localities in the rains; Centre, East, South, North-West, South-West, West and Littoral Regions ; e): In the water and energy sector A high risk of registering cases of: • submersion of crops in low-lying areas or in some plains of the North-West, South- • destruction of equipment and materials for the production and transportation of electricity . West, West, Littoral regions, due to heavy rains (poles, transformers etc...), following heavy rains accompanied by violent winds, in the North-

West, South-West, West and Littoral Regions, as well as in the other Regions of the country; b) In the health sector: • contamination of water in catchment sites by polluted runoff, in the South, North-West, A risk of recording: South-West, West and Littoral Regions. • Cases of cholera in many localities and some large settlements in the monomodal rainforest zone f) In the Public Works sector: and in the Sudano-Sahelian zone as a result of polluted runoff and flooding; A high risk of registering cases of: • an increase in cases of other water-borne diseases (yeasts, amoebiasis, dysentery, etc.), due to • degradation and destruction of paved and unpaved roads in the North-West, South- the poor quality of drinking water, in the 05 Agro-ecological zones and especially in precarious West, West and Littoral Regions as a result of heavy rains coupled with the obstruction areas and large urban areas; of runoff channels; • An upsurge in cases of respiratory diseases (flu, cough, bronchitis, colds, asthma attacks, • destruction of bridges and culverts in certain localities in the North-West, West, South-West etc.), in most localities in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; and Littoral Regions, due to heavy rains. • a proliferation of malaria-carrying mosquitoes in the 05 Agro-ecological Zones; g): In the environment and biodiversity sector •.an exacerbation of general pathologies, in adults, people suffering from obesity, A high risk of registering: hypertension, systemic disorders in children, women in menopause, people suffering from • landslides due to heavy rains and soil congestion in the Littoral, North-West, West and diabetes, in most localities of the country during this period South-West Regions; c) For the urban planning sector: • cases of flooding in the coastal zone, notably in the localities of Limbe, Tiko, Buea, in A high risk of registering cases of: the South-West Region and Douala, Yabassi, Edéa, Mouanko, Loum, Mbanga, Penja and • Destruction of public buildings, following heavy rains accompanied by strong winds in the Melong, in the Littoral Region. major settlements of the North-West, South-West, West and Littoral Regions; • Destruction and degradation of buildings, engineering structures and crossing structures in urban areas throughout the national territory;

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VI. Assessment of climate predictions for the dekad from 1 to 10 September 2020

Guinea High Monomodal Rainfall Agro-ecological zones Sudano-Sahelian Bimodal Rainfall forest High Plateau Savann Forest North- South- Regions Far-North North Adamawa East Centre South west Littoral West West Minimum Temperatures Historical average from 1979 to 2018 (°C) 20,2 20,6 18,1 21,2 21,7 21,3 17,9 17,4 21,6 22,9 Trend forecasting ≈ ≈ Forecast success rate 82 80 83 85 81 82 81 80 78 83 Maximum Temperatures Historical average from 1979 to 2018 (°C) 32,06 31 28,6 27,67 27 27 24,6 25,54 25,83 25,29 Trend forecasting ≈ ≈ Forecast success rate (%) 82 83 79 81 80 79 81 83 80 79 Precipitations Historical average from 1979 to 2018 (mm) 23-53 54-85 86-176 177-179 180-202 203-234 234-241 203-238 233-262 182-204

Trend forecasting ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ ≈ Forecast success rate (%) 77 91 98 100 100 100 98,6 100 100 100

Around the mean ≈; Reduction; Increase

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VII. Some recommendations

It is recommended within this period to: a) In the agricultural sector - Continue to sow and/or maintain suitable crops in the different areas according to the 2020 agricultural calendar proposed by ONACC for the current agricultural season. -The early harvesting of certain crops such as roots and tubers according to agricultural schedules in the south regions of the country.

b) In the health sector - raise public awareness to strictly respect basic hygiene and sanitation rules (wash hands regularly, wash food items, filter drinking water before consumption in households, use latrines, avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of dwellings, the population is strongly encouraged to drink warm water, etc.); - Avoid the accumulation of household waste in the vicinity of homes; - dress warmly and put on sleeping gears in localities experiencing cold nights during this period; - encourage the population to sleep under mosquito nets; - Strengthen community surveillance at the level of rural health centres to ensure rapid investigation and speedy management of suspicious cases of cholera and their care.

c) In the livestock sector ▪ organise vaccination campaigns for small and big livestock as well as poultry to prevent epizootic diseases in the five agro-ecological zones;

For more information, contact: P.O. Box 35414 Building no 1220, Street no 1793, Bastos, Yaounde, Cameroon Tel. (237)693 370 504 /(237)222 209 500 E-mail: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] 12 Website: www.onacc.cm