The Top Ten in PNT National Space Competitiveness
More GNSS systems are on- line or in the pipeline than ever before. But not every space-based PNT provider can rely on supportive government policies, generous funding, abundant skilled technicians, or a strong national economy. In this article, analysts from a noted management and market intelligence
consultancy examine the current and projected capabilities iStockphoto.com/tiridifilm © of the world’s GNSS system operators and rank the top 10.
Jay Gullish, David Vaccaro Each year Futron Corporation col- ments: space-based positioning, navi- Futron Corporation lects and analyzes data, statistics, and gation, and timing (PNT), which are indicators for leading space-faring largely a function of a space nation’s nations that align to the underlying involvement with GNSS programs, tech- ince the dawn of humanity, the drivers of space competitiveness: gov- nologies, and applications. sky and stars have stimulated our ernment, human capital, and industry. imagination and curiosity. As Incorporating this data into our compet- Overall Space Sour understanding about outer itiveness model year after year provides Competitiveness space increases, so does our passion and Futron’s analysts a unique quantitative Before taking up the PNT segment per drive to explore beyond the reaches of framework with which to interpret and se, however, some comments on the our own planet — and to use space to assess respective strengths, weaknesses, metrics researched in Futron’s 2009 understand our own planet. opportunities, and threats among inter- Space Competitiveness Index — and our Just as communications satellites national space actors: leading nations associated conclusions — may provide have emerged as a critical backbone of such as Brazil, Canada, China, Europe useful context. our telecommunications networks, our India, Israel, Japan, Russia, South Korea, • The United States maintained its daily lives are enhanced considerably and the United States, and emerging leadership in all three categories of by services such as weather forecasting, nations such as Australia, Iran, North competitiveness drivers (govern- global positioning, satellite imagery, Korea, Singapore, and South Africa. ment, people, and industry) as well and other space-enabled applications. Futron’s complete Space Competitive- as in the overall index. However, A mere half-century after the launch of ness Index explores the relative strengths the country’s relative competitive- the first satellite, space infrastructure of these actors overall (see Figure 1) and ness declined slightly due to strate- has become central to the way we live, in five in-depth segment analyses. This gic drift and the heavy reliance on work and play. article will focus on one of those seg- defense funding, which under cur-
42 InsideGNSS november/december 2009 www.insidegnss.com rent export controls, cannot be com- 50 mercialized. • European space progress continues 40 as the countries of Europe deepen U.S. and broaden regional space institu- 30 tions with the key challenge being retention of efficiency and flexibil- Industry Europe ity within a complex policy-making 20 environment among the European China Bubble size represents Union (EU), European Defense 10 Russia South Korea Canada Human Capital Agency (EDA), European Space India Israel Japan Agency (ESA), and respective mem- Brazil 0 ber-states. 0 10 20 30 40 50 • As a space pioneer, Russia has sta- Government bilized its third-place position, but needs to move quickly to develop a FIGURE 1 2009 Space Competitiveness Index Country Comparisons commercial space industry by build- ing on its legacy capability, over- • India’s space program, now ranked to examine specific market and industry coming current economic obstacles seventh, is poised for continued cross-sections: their status by the num- and leveraging international part- growth and enhancements to its bers, the conditions across the 10 lead- nerships. As a lead partner in the competitiveness stance based on ing space participant countries, and the International Space Station (ISS), expanded commercial and interna- underlying structural forces shaping Russia’s strategic relationship to the tional partnerships with the United them. United States — actually a two-way States, Israel, and others. dependency — will affect its space Global PNT: An Overview competitiveness. Market Segmentation Space-based positioning, navigation • Japan was a clear winner in the 2009 The space industry is complex — co- and timing (PNT) capabilities are truly Space Competitiveness Index, high- mingling military, civilian, and com- a global utility that positively affect the lighting the value of a sound and mercial roles across the satellite, daily lives of many people around the transparent law- and policy-making satellite services, spacecraft, spaceport, globe. PNT services provide improved apparatus — in particular because and launch vehicle environments. To economic, transportation, and security new legislation permits the nation to provide analytical insight into these and efficiencies that were previously unat- engage in military space activities. other areas of space activity, Futron’s tainable. • The displacement of China from 2009 Space Competitiveness Index In PNT’s simplest form, GNSS satel- fourth to fifth place may be surpris- examines them in terms of their key lites produce one-way communications ing, given that country’s notable actors, applications, and economic driv- signals with embedded source, orbital space successes during 2008. This ers — the who, what, and how of space position, and timing information that re-positioning traces back to two competitiveness. enable a receiver to calculate its posi- underlying, and noteworthy, weak- This approach, depicted in the Table tion anywhere on or around the entire nesses in the Chinese space program: 1, permits Futron to perform not only planet. In order to improve accuracy and lack of transparency and market country-by-country evaluations of integrity — in particular, vertical loca- access, including obstacles for space national space competitiveness, but also tion or altitude — as well as eliminate applications such as satellite commu- nications, broadcasting, and satellite Space Competitiveness Segmentations: A Framework for Understanding radio. Key Actors (Who) Applications (What) Drivers (How) • Canada, while retaining its sixth Government Policies & Leadership position, made important moves to Military Science and Exploration Civilian Government Communications Human Capital and Experience increase competitiveness. Canadian Commercial Enterprise Earth Observation Corporate Structure and Operations human capital, international coop- Non-profit Organizations Positioning, Navigation, and Technology and Innovation eration, and investment in strategic Individuals Timing Investment and Spending niches such as remote sensing and Manufacturing robotics sustain its clear competitive Launch Space Services strengths, in part tied to its unique partnerships with both the United TABLE 1. Illustrative List of Space Competitiveness Actors, Applications, and Economic Drivers States and ESA. Bold indicates the inclusion of segment analysis included in full report www.insidegnss.com november/december 2009 InsideGNSS 43 top ten in pnt
signal gaps, PNT systems incorporate • The U.S. is the current commercial tive start-ups and small applications augmentation infrastructure, which leader of the GPS products and ser- developers. include both space- and ground-based vices market. • Ground augmentation is a major assets, ground systems and communica- • Russia has appreciably enhanced its focus of civilian government agen- tions infrastructure. strategy and organizational capabil- cies, and will further enhance tech- Some GNSS constellations include ity, as its program to replenishment nology and facilitate innovation of data communications and value-added the GLONASS constellation pro- additional applications. services. By tracking location and move- gresses; modernized GLONASS- • GPS applications have proliferated ment over time, and overlaying mapping M satellites will have significantly and matured, with increasing seg- technology, these satellites make possible enhanced performance, and a com- mentation, niche product develop- a diverse set of PNT applications — mili- mercialization effort is underway. ment, and value-added services. • The global economic crisis that began China appears to be solidifying PNT Policy for in 2008 and continues into 2009 COMPASS, a positive step toward integrating the could derail or delay the develop- regional programs and enabling augmentation ment of PNT infrastructure in some countries; however, U.S. policy-mak- services over Asia. ers do not currently foresee major changes in policy, investment, or tary, civilian, and consumer — resulting • EU ownership of Galileo and aligned operations of U.S. space-based PNT in a rapidly growing, dynamic market- PNT initiatives improves the chances constellations or infrastructure due place for PNT-based products, services, of programmatic success; however, to the recession. and solutions. some redesign of end-user equip- Futron’s Global PNT Index examines ment as well as proposed licensing Recent Developments current PNT systems — both operation- fees, could affect costs and ultimate The premier space-based PNT system al and planned — to develop an over- commercial success. remains the U.S.-owned and operated all assessment of the sector’s impact • China appears to be solidifying PNT GPS. During 2008, however, several on space competitiveness, as well as an Policy for COMPASS, a positive step additional space powers codified plans analysis of the evolving PNT industrial toward integrating the regional pro- to develop similar systems. base. Our evaluation also integrates grams and enabling augmentation Russia, which has the second longest- human capital and commercial factors services over Asia. running system, promoted commercial to deliver a robust viewpoint. • The United States and Europe signed use of GLONASS-based PNT. Several By combining quantitative and an agreement in 2004 promoting Russian and additional international qualitative metrics, the Global PNT cooperative efforts between GPS manufacturers entered the market for Index provides insights into the relative and Galileo, which established the GLONASS-based products and servic- economic advantages of the 10 leading foundation for future compatibility, es. GLONASS receivers have been com- space participant nations with specific interoperability, and fair trade in mercially available since the 1990s, with regard to PNT capabilities. The key PNT markets. several Western companies maintain- trends identified in this focused PNT • Given the scope of the Galileo ini- ing substantial design and engineering segment analysis, some of which have tiative, European program managers operations in Russia. Domestic Russian not changed over the past year, may be will likely have difficulty executing commercial activity has lagged until summarized as follows: their ambitious launch and opera- recently. • The U.S. Global Positioning System tions plan on schedule and on bud- We should emphasize that little (GPS) provides the U.S. military with get. connection exists between operating a a significant logistical, operational, • Other nations, in particular Taiwan governmental PNT system and having a and command and control advan- and Japan, have made significant competitive market for user equipment tage, which, in turn, rationalizes the inroads in the manufacturing arena and services. For example, Japan has development of similar systems by as Taiwan-based MiTAC expanded been a leader in GPS user products even Russia, Europe, China, and India. via acquisition and diversified Japa- though the government is not directly • As other countries seek PNT capabil- nese consumer electronics manufac- involved in the GPS program. ity, either independent of GPS or in turers increase market share. Similarly, the restoration and mod- augmentation of it, there will be mas- • The commercial GPS market is ernization of GLONASS will not nec- sive investment in satellites, ground undergoing a period of mergers essarily help Russian user equipment infrastructure, user equipment, and and acquisitions that include verti- manufacturers. Because the basic intel- operational expenses representing cal as well as horizontal merger and lectual property of the technology is tens of billions of dollars. acquisition activity, offset by innova- public — in the form of interface con-
44 InsideGNSS november/december 2009 www.insidegnss.com trol documents — anyone can make a All told, by the end of 2008, GPS Another key event during 2008 with- GPS-GLONASS receiver; so, the rise of had been embedded in several hundred in the GNSS sector was the continuing a Russian or European GNSS system is million devices worldwide. Qualcomm effort to consolidate a global framework unlikely to erode a GNSS manufacturer’s alone has already sold 300 million GPS- of national systems aligning interoper- market position. enabled cell phone chipsets. GARMIN ability, compatibility, and optimization Although shortages of chipsets hin- International has delivered 48 million of a global utility. This effort is ongoing dered initial production and sales of portable navigation devices (PNDs) to and nowhere near complete. consumer-oriented GLONASS receiv- date, including some 16.9 million units A leading entity working in this ers, media sources suggest stronger- during 2008. area is the International Committee than-anticipated sales. As a result, Rus- While the diversity of the industry on Global Navigation Satellite Systems sian industry may increase its long-term and a common definition of the PNT- (ICG). Formed in 2006, the ICG met commercial competitiveness in the sec- specific added value in products and ser- for the third time in 2008 (and, since tor — but the economics of GLONASS vices make market estimates difficult, a our 2008 study was completed, a fourth remain untested. consensus is arising that the value of the time in Russia in September 2009). The Meanwhile, the Indian government GPS market has surpassed $30 billion, a ICG made incremental progress in approved development of its regional figure that includes revenue from manu- 2008 compared to the prior years. The GNSS constellation. The EU has also facture of space-based assets such as sat- competitive, national and commercial agreed to finance (and take over pro- ellites, ground-based infrastructure, and framework, therefore, must also be grammatic control) of the Galileo initia- end-user devices, as well as PNT-based viewed through a lens of an increasingly tive. Interestingly, European ministers services. interconnected GNSS (also sometimes have also endorsed a military role for The downstream financial benefit, referred to as the “global navigation sys- Galileo, bringing the continent closer to which also has not been well docu- tem of systems”). U.S. policy regarding the dual-use nature mented, would likely result in tens of The cooperative GNSS concept is of PNT systems. Given the prominent billions of dollars in economic value coordinated through the ICG with the role of GPS via NATO platforms — as from increased productivity, reduced support of the United Nations Office well as EU member-states’ control over operating costs, and newly enabled for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), national use of the security-oriented services. In fact, our assessment of rev- which serves as an executive secretariat. public regulated service (PRS), however, enue among leading international PNT The ICG established a Providers Forum the military utility of Galileo remains an companies identifies some $10 billion in 2007 to facilitate communications interesting open question. in global annual revenue, a figure that among nations, encourage compatibil- Despite the flurry of activity in sup- is likely to increase if smaller companies ity and interoperability of GNSS sys- port of all PNT programs, with ongo- and downstream services are included. tems, provide a forum for coordination ing plans in place to upgrade the GPS As new systems (and corresponding with other relevant international orga- system and its augmentations, current products, applications, and downstream nizations, facilitate policy and technical U.S. activity ensures the nation’s strate- services) come on line, this figure will integration across nations, and more gic leadership in the sector into the near- surely grow, raising key questions about recently, engage the commercial and term and perhaps beyond. the national economic benefit among the academic community. relative winners and losers in the mar- An interesting note: several coun- GPS Market Growth ketplace. tries in the top 10 Space Competitiveness In the past year, the number of end- A notable development in 2008 Index have weakly developed PNT poli- user GPS applications has continued to was the rise of virtual reference sta- cies and strategies. Israel, for example, increase, particularly in the civilian and Our assessment of revenue among leading commercial arenas. Automotive solu- tions and handhelds remain the leading international PNT companies identifies some $10 end-user devices, but other innovative billion in global annual revenue, a figure that is likely applications suggest long-term revenue to increase if smaller companies and downstream potential from tracking services pro- services are included. vided, for instance, for individuals on parole and probation , endangered spe- tion (VRS) networks across the United is participating in the Galileo program, cies, children, the elderly, and industrial States, mostly at the initiative of local but only to a limited extent. Nonethe- assets. Continued robust growth can and state governments, universities, and less, a consensus exists among Israeli also be expected in transportation and the private sector. VRS networks make military and industry leaders that the agricultural applications tied to moni- centimeter-level GPS positioning avail- country needs a clear PNT strategy to toring and controlling supply chains and able to a broad swath of users in local or ensure military superiority and capabil- optimizing production. regional areas. ity independence. www.insidegnss.com november/december 2009 InsideGNSS 45 top ten in pnt
Brazil Canada China Europe India Israel Japan Russia South Korea U.S. PNT Official Government Policy Promulgated N N Y Y Y Y1 Y Y N Y System Name n/a n/a Compass/ Galileo IRNSS n/a n/a GLONASS GPS BeiDou Nominal Constellation n/a n/a 30 30 7 n/a 24 24 Current Constellation 5 2 0 n/a 19 30 Operational Date 2012 2014 TBD n/a 1995 1995 2015-20 Coverage Asia- Global India+ n/a 2012 20142 Pacific regional Cost $5B $300M n/a $14B3 Commercialized Planned n/a √ √ √ Augmentation Systems System Name N4 EGNOS GAGAN n/a MSAS5 SDCM WAAS QZSS LAAS Nominal Constellation 3 3 n/a 2 2 2 3 Current Constellation 3 n/a 2 0 2 0 Operational Date 2011 2011 n/a 2006 TBD IOC 2010 2003 Coverage Europe India+ n/a Asia/ Russia North Oceania America Cost $140M n/a $1.5B $720M
TABLE 2. Status of PNT Systems by Country IRNSS = Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System; EGNOS = European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service; GAGAN = GPS-Aided Geo Augmented Navigation; MSAS = Multi-functional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) Satellite-based Augmentation System (MSAS); QZSS = Quasi-Zenith Satellite System; SCDM = System of Differential Correction and Monitoring; WAAS = Wide Area Augmentation System; LAAS = Local Area Augmentation System 1. Note: In July 2004, Israel signed an agreement with the EU to become a partner in the Galileo project but funding is limited, and the industry experts cite the need for a compre- hensive PNT strategy. 2. Current U.S. Air Force plans call for launch of GPS III generation of spacecraft starting in 2014; 8 GPS IIIA, 8 GPS IIIB, and 16 GPS IIIC satellites are planned to maintain and upgrade the system. 3. Estimated total cost of GPS from 1974–2016 in constant 1995 dollars, including launch, ground systems, and operational expenses. 4. U.S. WAAS and LAAS systems cover portions of Canada and the Canadian government participates to a certain extent in the programs. 5. MSAS is dual use including meteorological services launched in 2006
Israeli industry, however, has shown either a clear PNT strategy or any large time and create a platform for ongoing limited activity in this area so far, with industry. However, domestic companies discussions and analysis on the relative the notable exception of Rokar, a BAE do customize GNSS products and ser- competitiveness within the PNT indus- Systems subsidiary that develops GPS vices into local languages, and there is try. We invite feedback and future col- equipment. Canada also lacks a com- sufficient interest to host annual GNSS laboration to further develop its focused prehensive PNT strategy, although the conferences. Table 2 summarizes the analysis in this segment. country coordinates with the U.S. Wide current status of PNT systems. Area Augmentation System (WAAS) Looking forward, by 2015 six nation- Global PNT Segment Index and Local Area Augmentation System al systems are projected to be providing Futron has enhanced the PNT segment (LAAS) programs. Canada hosts sev- primary or augmentation services using index for 2009 by more closely aligning eral WAAS reference stations within its some 130 satellites, supporting increas- the indicators to the overall Space Com- territory (as does Mexico), and a vibrant ing embedded solutions for a diverse petitiveness Index, as well as including commercial PNT industry has devel- customer base. The political and eco- additional metrics as more information oped within the country, both in terms nomic implications of this expanding has become available. The PNT segment of equipment and services development sector could prove enormous. index, therefore, includes seven indica- as well as academic expertise. Futron intends to use our PNT Index tors grouped into the three underlying Both Brazil and South Korea lack as a baseline to assess the industry over drivers of the market:
46 InsideGNSS november/december 2009 www.insidegnss.com Category Target Measure Metric Weight Government Ability for Government to Provide Structure, Guidance, and Funding 40% tative and quantitative comparisons of Forced ranking of PNT Policy 10% the issues necessary to foster competi- Number of GPS tracking ground stations 10% tive PNT systems and industry. In many cases the metrics act as proxies for larger Number of PNT satellites as a proxy for government spending 20% issues. People Ability for People to Develop and Willingness to Use Applications and Technology 20% Government strategy is critical to Number of Organizations Providing GPS data to IGS as a proxy 10% marshaling public support and financ- for user interest ing for initial system development, Number of IGS associate members as a proxy for people 10% regardless of whether the constellation engaged in PNT research and activities has a specifically military, civilian, or Industry Ability for Industry to Finance and Deliver Space Products and Services 40% commercial application or some com- Revenue for Leading GPS Companies (US$) 20% bination of the three. Number of PNT Companies as a proxy of industry strength 20% Strategy is the vanguard for national policies, laws and regulations — key fac- TABLE 3. Global PNT Index Model tors in the development of any industry. Yet accurate, comparable government Number of Operational Spacecraft – Navigation spending on PNT programs assets, for Country Raw Number Normalized Weight Score example, is not available across all sys- tems, and in some cases is accounted for Brazil 0 0 20% 0 differently. As a result, we use the num- Canada 0 0 20% 0 ber of operational satellites and ground China 5 16 20% 3 stations as a quantitative metrics used as Europe 2 7 20% 1 proxies for underlying spending. India 0 0 20% 0 In order to standardize data to create Israel 0 0 20% 0 a common baseline, Futron normalizes data using a base 100 scale. Once data Japan 2 7 20% 2 is normalized, the model weights each Russia 29 94 20% 19 metric based on its relative percentage South Korea 0 0 20% 0 value, which provides the score that U.S. 31 100 20% 20 each country receives for each indicator.
TABLE 4. Illustrative Metric Calculation When the seven metrics are aggregated, we are able to rank national PNT com- petitiveness in both absolute and relative The Government metric represents viding the highest quality data and terms. the ability for government to provide products as the standard for GNSSs Table 4 provides an illustrative exam- structure, guidance, and funding for in support of Earth science research, ple using the number of operational nav- PNT initiatives and infrastructure, multidisciplinary applications, and igation spacecraft as a proxy for Govern- including augmentation and ground education. ment capability. systems and incorporates: 5) Number of IGS associate members as 1) Forced ranking of PNT policy a proxy for people engaged in PNT Segment Findings 2) Number of GPS tracking ground research and activities. Using these metrics as a foundation for stations as a proxy for government The Industry metric assesses the the Global PNT Index, the figure below spending capability for industry to finance and compares the 10 countries analyzed in 3) Number of PNT satellites as a proxy deliver space-enabled PNT products, Futron’s 2009 Space Competitiveness for government capability. and retain economic benefit from these Index in their respective PNT space ThePeople metric measures the abil- activities segments. The results show that while ity of people to develop and willingness 6) Revenue of leading PNT companies numerous countries have developed to use PNT applications and technology, as a proxy for national industry size some degree of PNT policy and on-orbit including usage, training, and civil soci- 7) Number of PNT companies as a capability, the United States and Europe ety support and incorporates: proxy of industry strength. have thus far outpaced others in terms of 4) Number of organizations providing The overall model and weights are commercialization of PNT-driven equip- GPS data to the International GNSS summarized in the Table 3. ment and services. Figures 2 and 3 pres- Service (IGS) as a proxy for user Futron selected these three catego- ent a visual summary of our findings. interest. The International GNSS ries and related metrics as drivers of the Of special interest is the relative Service (IGS) is committed to pro- PNT segment because they allow quali- change among the nations from 2008. www.insidegnss.com november/december 2009 InsideGNSS 47 top ten in pnt
50 PNT space segment, in addition to a Bubble size represents U.S. well defined body of strategy, law, and 40 Government PNT Policy, Strategy, regulation. Several other countries also Systems, and Investment enhanced their PNT policy, strategy, and 30 systems — most notably Russia, Europe, China, and India during 2008. U.S. leadership, however, is founded 20 on more than two decades of consistent, PNT Commercialization South Canada forward-leaning policies to encourage 10 Korea commercial use of GPS and other space- Japan China Europe Israel based GNSS services. This foundation Russia creates a stable and transparent policy Brazil 10 20 30 40 50 environment. In fact, current U.S. space- India PNT Human Capital based PNT Policy, which superseded a 1996 GPS policy, has been in effect since FIGURE 2 Global PNT Segment: Comparative Positions by Country December 2004 in the form of a national security presidential directive. U.S. The directive established a National Executive Committee for Space-Based Europe PNT co-chaired by deputy secretaries of Russia defense and transportation and a sup- China porting staff in the interagency National Canada Coordination Office (NCO) for Space- Japan Based PNT. India Headed by a senior executive ser- vice member from the Department of South Korea Transportation, the NCO coordinates Brazil U.S. government policy and program Israel efforts across the agency members of 0 20 40 60 80 100 the executive committee, including the departments of state, interior, agricul- FIGURE 3 Global PNT Segment: Aggregate Scores by Country ture, commerce, homeland security, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and NASA. While U.S. leadership remains appar- and enhance overall PNT competitive- In conjunction with the State Depart- ent and significant, other countries ness in the longer term. ment, the NCO coordinates U.S. policy have made substantial gains as well. positions with international members In particular, Russia gained as a result PNT Government Analysis and organizations of the PNT world of its reinvigorated program and com- We conducted a qualitative examination community. Efforts are coordinated mercialization efforts, gaining in both of the level of support for national PNT within the U.S. government through the Government and Industry catego- activity in order to understand how the various departmental GPS and PNT ries. Europe, too, enhanced its position, 10 leading space participant countries working groups. Given this administra- largely due to the new role of the EU in compare to each other in terms of gov- tive structure and the current standing GNSS activities that provide underlying ernmental capability. of the GPS system, the United States has support — both organizational as well as To determine the weighted points considerable influence in the evolution funding — for its initiatives. assigned for each country, Futron of international strategy, policy, and Not on the list is Taiwan, which has researched and summarized each coun- standards. become a focal point for many of the try’s relevant policy, law, and regulations, In Europe, after significant restruc- PNT consumer electronics, both as man- as well as system investment, interna- turing in 2007, the European Commis- ufacturers such as MediaTek and brand tional cooperation, and the development sion (EC) is now fully in charge. The EC ownership through acquisition of the of augmentation systems. owns the Galileo system itself as well as Magellan consumer brand by MiTAC The results were debated internally related GNSS initiatives, and work with Digital Corporation. China, Japan, and and validated by external experts. Our ESA and member governments to coor- India also made major strides in policy assessments highlight the advanced dinate activities. as well, which will increase investment position of the United States based Russia has also developed a coherent and commercial activity in the near term on its long-standing leadership in the policy framework around GLONASS,
48 InsideGNSS november/december 2009 www.insidegnss.com and the Chinese government has U.S. increasingly clarified its strategy, policy, Russia and organizational structure. Both Japan Europe and India have well-developed planning China processes for their PNT systems. In 2009, Japan Japan passed a new Basic Space Law that reorganized its management of space India programs and authorized the nation to Canada use space for defensive purposes. South Korea At this point we should clarify the Israel important distinction between service Brazil provider systems and GPS augmenta- tion systems. The systems in Japan and 0 10 20 30 40 India are wholly reliant on GPS, where- FIGURE 4 Government PNT Policy, Strategy, and Systems: Scores by Country as GLONASS, Galileo, and COMPASS intend to be independent GNSS sys- Government Number of Ground Number of Change in tem operators and service providers. Weighted PNT Index Policy Stations PNT Satellites Ranking Yet, the GPS constellation remains the benchmark that other systems seek to Country 2009 Score 2009 Score 2009 Score 2008 Score 2009 Score 2009 emulate. U.S. 100 100 100 40 40 - Our analysis also incorporated the Russia 75 20 94 24 28 issue of policies and assets required for Europe 80 94 7 30 19 ¯ ground and air augmentation of PNT China 50 10 16 12 9 - systems, where the United States leads the push to provide ancillary signals and Japan 40 11 7 8 6 additional services to government and India 45 2 0 10 5 ¯ industry. Canada 10 31 0 4 4 - Europe, Japan, India, and Canada South Korea 0 0 0 0 3 n/a are pursuing similar initiatives at lower Israel 10 2 0 0 1 n/a levels of funding and prioritization — in many cases under the auspices of region- Brazil 0 5 0 0 1 n/a al or international initiatives. Table 5 and TABLE 5. Government PNT Policy, Strategy, and Systems: Scores by Country Figure 4 summarize the results of our Note: Scores are normalized to 100, but represented in their appropriate 40-20-40 split in the Weighted PNT Index qualitative PNT policy, strategy, and systems assessment. the Chinese system should be able to PNT Human Capital Analysis Not surprisingly, the United States enhance its regional service Beidou-1, To assess the human capital capability of with its fully operational GPS constel- which has been providing regional PNT the 10 leading space participant nations, lation led the rankings. Russia, with its services for several years. Futron uses a series of proxy metrics to nearly full operational GLONASS system India now plans to launch its GSAT- gauge end-user interest and the strength ranks a low second, followed by China 4 into geostationary orbit in December of civil society. Table 6 and Figure 5 high- and Europe as each has initiated test-bed 2009, which will have a dedicated tran- light our findings. satellites for their own systems. sponder payload for the GPS-Aided Human capital represents Europe’s Japan is focused on national posi- Geo Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) strength in the PNT segment, highlight- tioning and augmentation services. system. GSAT-8 and GSAT-9, which ing an on-the-ground interest in PNT India, Israel, Canada, South Korea, also carry GAGAN payloads, will be activities by both organizations and indi- and Brazil, meanwhile, currently do launched soon thereafter. viduals. Within Europe, Germany is the not have operational or near-term in- Japan’s Multi-functional Transport clear leader according to our indicators. development on-orbit GNSS assets, and Satellite (MTSAT) Satellite-based Aug- Although not directly accounted for have invested limited resources in other mentation System (MSAS), with two in the index, several European institutes aspects of government capability. spacecraft already up and running today, have developed academic PNT curricula Looking forward, a key facet of the also remains a factor. Therefore, by 2010, and intend to organize specific univer- PNT sector in 2009 will be China’s plan three regional Asia PNT systems could sity programs. The United States follows to launch several PNT satellites, with be in place, which in turn could signifi- Europe in human capital indicators. more than 10 satellites to be launched cantly affect the underlying industrial Subsequent rankings include Russia, over the next several years. In 2010, composition of the industry. China, and Canada. www.insidegnss.com november/december 2009 InsideGNSS 49 top ten in pnt
Europe porate GLONASS technology and in 2009 announced a joint venture with a U.S. Chinese company to produce Compass Russia receivers. Other GNSS receiver manu- Canada facturers also offer GLONASS-capable China receivers, and several satellite signal/ Brazil constellation manufacturers offer prod- South Korea ucts that support product development for all GNSS systems and augmentations. Japan These developments suggest a continu- Israel ing diversification of end-user applica- India tions and hardware options. 0 5 10 15 20 The table and chart below summa- rize our data for our industry indicators, FIGURE 5 Human Capital PNT Capability Scores by Country noting in advance that Russia should rank significantly higher — perhaps Number of IGS Number of IGS Change in third. Indications suggest that the inter- Weighted PNT Index Data Providers Members Ranking nal Russian market is growing and that Country 2009 Score 2009 Score 2008 Score 2009 Score 2009 GLONASS products are gaining market Europe 100 100 n/a 20 n/a traction. However, raw data on Russia’s commercial PNT industry is not avail- U.S. 54 86 n/a 14 n/a able, which undermines the country’s Russia 26 12 n/a 4 n/a position in our index. China 14 12 n/a 3 n/a Some interesting notes on the mar- Canada 6 20 n/a 3 n/a ket suggest that the overall demand Japan 9 5 n/a 1 n/a for European PNT devices may have peaked. TomTom, a leading European South Korea 3 5 n/a 1 n/a manufacturer, announced that in late Brazil 4 3 n/a 1 n/a 2008 its sales in Europe declined 7 per- India 3 2 n/a 0 n/a cent year on year, while they increased Israel 3 0 n/a 0 n/a 12 percent in North America over the
TABLE 6. Human Capital PNT Capability Scores by Country same period. Much of this growth is tied to new Note: Scores are normalized to 100, but represented in their appropriate 40-20-40 split in the Weighted PNT Index car sales, and the downturn in 2009 in the automotive industry will likely affect PNT Industry Analysis Russia will likely gain as GLONASS the PNT industry during the year. GAR- Futron analyzed the commercial PNT revenue figures become available with MIN claims roughly one-third of the marketplace and its related equipment government buyers probably driving mobile/automotive PNT device market and service market, developing a list of early commercial revenue. globally, while TomTom cites its mar- leading manufacturers of revenue and Notable PNT commercialization ket share in Europe at 46 percent and companies for leading products, devel- trends include merger and acquisition North American at 23 percent. TomTom opers, software providers, and applica- activity such as recent combinations recently expanded into Russia. tions. The United States and Europe are of hardware and software providers, Another factor is the rapid uptake leaders, but interestingly the U.S. posi- creating vertical commercial players. of so-called “smart phones” with inte- tion advanced in the commercial space The integration of GPS into the mobile grated GPS technology that can be used (see Table 7 and Figure 6). telephony market represents a notewor- with inexpensive downloadable navi- In contrast, the degree of PNT and thy development, with Nokia becoming gation applications and location-based GPS commercialization in the remain- a significant player aided by its acquisi- services. ing countries that we analyzed, as mea- tion of NAVTEQ, a leading developer sured by revenues accrued, remains sub- of navigable digital maps. GARMIN, a Future Opportunities stantially less. This may, in part, reflect leading GPS equipment manufacturer, to Analyze the PNT Industry a previous lack of strong PNT industry also introduced a GPS cell phone prod- During the second iteration of our PNT organizations and transparency in finan- uct. Index, we refined our model to include cial reportage for some regions. GPS pioneer Trimble has started to additional statistical factors. However, Looking forward to 2010, however, market a range of products that incor- data for the PNT industry remains scarce;
50 InsideGNSS november/december 2009 www.insidegnss.com so, going forward we hope to identify U.S. additional data points and metrics. Europe Acknowledgments Canada Futron would like to thank the valida- Japan tors of this study for providing invalu- South Korea able insight into this assessment. Lastly, Russia Futron would appreciate the opportu- Israel nity for feedback on our effort. And we India would like to hear from industry experts and organizations interested in partner- China ing in this initiative going forward. Brazil 0 10 20 30 40 About Futron’s Space Competitiveness Studies FIGURE 6 Industry PNT Commercialization Scores by Country The Space Competitiveness Index pro- vides decision-makers — from law- Revenue of Leading Number of Change in Weighted PNT Index makers to policy advisors to industry Companies Companies Ranking executives — a dynamic framework Country 2009 Score 2009 Score 2008 Score 2009 Score 2009 from which to scrutinize the effects of U.S. 100 100 40 40 n/a macroeconomic, military, civilian, and commercial trends on space activity. Europe 17 26 17 8 n/a Based on qualitative data and trending, Canada 1 14 0 3 n/a leading space nations may set new space Japan 3 2 0 1 n/a goals tied to changes in the underlying Israel 0 2 0 0 n/a metrics to determine success. Russia 0 1 0 0 n/a Expanding international coopera- China 0 1 0 0 n/a tion and greater coordination among commercial and non-governmental India 0 1 0 0 n/a actors is critical, of course, but simulta- South Korea 0 0 0 0 n/a neously leaders need to promote policies Brazil 0 0 0 0 n/a that ensure the continued technological, TABLE 7. Industry PNT Commercialization Scores by Country military, and strategic space advantages Note: Scores are normalized to 100, but represented in their appropriate 40-20-40 split in the Weighted PNT Index of people and industry within their bor- ders. To find out more, visit our website merger and acquisition activity – both as a party Nanjing, China, as well as managing public rela- at