ENVIRONMENT SCAN: 16-30 NOV 2020

CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd)

China’s Surveillance State Sucks Up Data. U.S. Tech is Key to Sorting It. The Chinese government uses Urumqi Cloud Computing Center that is among the world’s most powerful to watch untold numbers of people in Xinjiang, a western region of China where Beijing has unleashed a campaign of surveillance and suppression in the name of combating terrorism. They can watch more surveillance footage in a day than one person could in a year. They look for faces and patterns of human behavior. They track cars. They monitor phones.

Chips made by Intel and Nvidia, the American semiconductor companies, have powered the complex since it opened in 2016. By 2019, at a time when reports said that Beijing was using advanced technology to imprison and track Xinjiang’s mostly Muslim minorities, new U.S.-made chips helped the complex join the list of the world’s fastest supercomputers. Both Intel and Nvidia say they were unaware of what they called misuse of their technology.

Companies often point out that they have little say over where their products end up. The chips in the Urumqi complex, for example, were sold by Intel and Nvidia to Sugon, the Chinese company backing the center. Sugon is an important supplier to Chinese military and security forces, but it also makes computers for ordinary companies. There is no evidence the sale of Nvidia or Intel chip, which predate the Trump order, broke any laws. Intel said it no longer sells semiconductors for supercomputers to Sugon. Still, both continue to sell chips to the Chinese firm.

In five-year old marketing materials distributed in China, Nvidia promoted the Urumqi complex’s capabilities and boasted that the “high capacity video surveillance application” there had won customer satisfaction. Nvidia said that the materials referred to older versions of its products and that video surveillance then was a normal part of the discussion around “smart cities,” an effort in China to use technology to solve urban issues like pollution, traffic and crime. A spokesman for Nvidia said the company had no reason to believe its products would be used “for any improper purpose.”

The spokesman added that Sugon “hasn’t been a significant Nvidia customer” since last year’s ban. He also said that Nvidia had not provided technical assistance for Sugon since then.

A spokesman for Intel, which still sells Sugon lower-end chips, said it would restrict or stop business with any customer that it found had used its products to violate human rights.

Advances in technology have given the authorities around the world substantial power to watch and sort people. In China, leaders have pushed technology to an even greater extreme. Artificial intelligence and genetic testing are used to screen people to see whether they are Uighurs, one of Xinjiang’s minority groups. Chinese companies and the authorities claim their systems can detect religious extremism or opposition to the Communist Party.

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The Urumqi Cloud Computing Center — also sometimes called the Xinjiang Supercomputing Center — broke onto the list of the world’s fastest computers in 2018, ranking No. 221. In November 2019, new chips helped push its computer to No. 135.The Urumqi complex went into development before reports of abuses in Xinjiang were widespread. By 2019, governments around the world were protesting China’s conduct in Xinjiang. That year, the Sugon computer appeared on the international supercomputing rankings, using Intel Xeon Gold 5118 processors and Nvidia Tesla V100 advanced artificial intelligence chips.

Two data centers run by Chinese security forces sit next door, a way to potentially cut down on lag time, according to experts. Also nearby are six prisons and re- education centers.

The official Chinese media and Sugon’s previous statements depict the complex as a surveillance center, among other uses. In August 2017, local officials said that the center would support a Chinese police surveillance project called Sharp Eyes and that it could search 100 million photos in a second. By 2018, according to company disclosures, its computers could connect to 10,000 video feeds and analyze 1,000 simultaneously, using artificial intelligence.

“With the help of cloud computing, big data, deep learning and other technologies, the intelligent video analysis engine can integrate police data and applications from video footage, Wi-Fi hot spots, checkpoint information, and facial recognition analysis to support the operations of different departments” within the Chinese police, Sugon said in a 2018 article posted to an official social media account.

Comments. The Trump administration last year banned the sale of advanced semiconductors and other technology to Chinese companies implicated in national security or humans rights issues. Powerful American technology and its potential misuse cut to the heart of the decisions the Biden administration must face as it tackles the country’s increasingly bitter relationship with China. A crucial early question for Mr. Biden will be whether to firm up, loosen or rethink those restrictions. Some figures in the technology industry argue that the ban went too far, cutting off valuable sales of American product with plenty of harmless uses and spurring China to create its own advanced semiconductors. Indeed, China is spending billions of dollars to develop high-end chips.

According to Jason Matheny, the founding director of Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a former U.S. intelligence official, “Government and industry need to be more thoughtful now that technologies are advancing to a point where you could be doing real-time surveillance using a single supercomputer on millions of people potentially.” https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/technology/china-intel-nvidia-xinjiang.html

U.S., Taiwan to Push an Alternative to China’s Belt and Road. Taiwan and the U.S. are moving ahead with a plan to finance infrastructure and energy projects in Asia and Latin America, using capital raised from the private sector to ensure greater transparency. Taiwan’s finance Minister Su Jain-rong said in an interview in Taipei on 25 November that an informal U.S.-led alliance to provide an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative would provide greater transparency to countries seeking funding to develop their infrastructure. He said he hopes to see the first projects start within the next year or two. The plan, initiated with the signing of an 3 agreement between the U.S. and Taiwan in September, aims to raise funds through bonds aimed at Taiwanese banks, insurers and other private capital. It is an opportunity for both Washington and Taipei to counter China’s global infrastructure spree amid concerns about Beijing’s commitment to international projects and worsening finances among developing countries.

The Belt and Road Initiative relies heavily on loans from Beijing to governments and typically involves Chinese state-owned enterprises. The Taiwan-U.S. plan, however, “strongly emphasizes the participation of the private sector, while also stressing that funds should be raised via the market, which makes it highly transparent,” Su said. World Bank President David Malpass urged Group of 20 countries in May to ensure greater transparency on government debt contracts, saying it is the only way to “balance the interests of the people with the interests of those signing the debt and investment contracts.” Taiwan’s infrastructure lending is intended to be more transparent through the greater disclosure of information, such as amounts raised yields and intended use, as part of the bond- sale process. Taiwan is the latest addition to an expanding roster of U.S. partnerships on infrastructure investment in third countries. Sixteen other countries have reached similar agreements with Washington, according to Su, under which companies from those countries work with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to fund infrastructure projects.

Japan, South Korea and Australia announced a partnership with the U.S. in 2018. Around $575 billion worth of projects have been built or are in the works as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, according to a World Bank estimate last year. The U.S. estimates it will invest a combined $75 billion in developing countries by 2025 through the International Development Finance Corporation and private capital. Su didn’t discuss how much he estimates Taiwanese investors will contribute. One major benefit of the financing framework for Taiwan lies in offering its cash-rich insurers the opportunity to find greater yields than are typically available at home, backed up by political support from the U.S.

President Donald Trump’s administration has made backing Taiwan a key pillar of the White House’s efforts to counter Chinese influence, and Su said he doesn’t see the financing collaboration changing much after Joe Biden takes office in January. He attributed that to shared values and strong bipartisan support for Taiwan in Washington. “After he takes office, Biden should maintain the basic” of the plan, Su said. “It’s unlikely that there will be an about-face.” https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/u-s-taiwan-to-push-an-alternative-to- china-s-belt-and-road

IOR, ANC AND INDO-PACIFIC Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri

China's Second Aircraft Carrier ‘Shandong’ on 3rd Sailing. China's first domestically developed aircraft carrier, Shandong, and its second overall, embarked on its third sailing of the year from Dalian Shipyard in Liaoning Province, on 21 Nov 2020. The training sortie likely featured combat-intensive exercises involving fighter jets, as also weapon firings. It also practiced integration and coordination with other escort combat warships like destroyers and frigates. Coinciding with the carrier's voyage, a navigation restriction notice released by Dalian's Maritime Safety 4

Administration on 20 Nov 2020 said that military exercises are scheduled from 21 Nov to 06 Dec 2020 in the northern part of Yellow Sea.

Comments. The aircraft carrier’s first training was reportedly held in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Bay from 25 May to 17 Jun 2020; and the second took place in Bohai Sea from 01 to 22 Sep 2020. Citing the captain of Shandong, China Central Television (CCTV) had earlier reported that the aircraft carrier had completed regular tests and training including aviation support, damage control and emergency response missions at sea, and also focused on simulated combat since entering PLA Navy service in Dec 2019. The carrier could return after this sailing to Hainan Island in South China Sea, where its home port is located. When the aircraft carrier had made the round trip between Dalian Shipyard and the naval base in Sanya in late 2019 for its commissioning, it had sailed through the Taiwan Straits twice for strategic messaging to Taiwan.

Source: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1207778.shtml

US Aircraft Carrier ‘Nimitz’ Returns to the Persian Gulf. The US aircraft carrier Nimitz returned to the Gulf on 25 Nov 2020 and was deployed there, just days before the killing of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, although the US Navy said that the deployment was not related to any specific threat. US Navy in fact reiterated that the redeployment was rather related to a US drawdown in Iraq and Afghanistan, stating “this action ensures we have sufficient capability available to respond to any threat and to deter any adversary from acting against our troops during the force reduction.”

Comments. The Nimitz carrier was dispatched to the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain in the Persian Gulf in Jun 2020, as part of its routine global deployment policy. It had carried out joint multi-carrier exercises with ‘Theodore Roosevelt’ and ‘Ronald Reagan’ carriers in the East and South China Seas in Jul 2020, to send strategic message to an increasingly strident China. The carrier had also carried out exercises with the Indian Navy in the Bay of Bengal at that time. The Nimitz carrier group also participated in the recently concluded Malabar series of exercises with the Indian, Japanese and Australian Navies in the Arabian Sea from 03-06 Nov 2020. 5

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist suspected by the West of masterminding a secret nuclear bomb programme, was killed in an ambush near Tehran on 27 Nov 2020, threatening to provoke a new confrontation between Iran and the US in the last phase of outgoing President Donald Trump’s tenure.

Source: https://in.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-scientist-usa-navy/u-s-aircraft-carrier- deploys-to-gulf-navy-says-unrelated-to-specific-threats-idUSKBN2880DH

India-Maldives-Sri Lanka Maritime Security NSA Level Trilateral Meeting. The Indian National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval visited Colombo on 27 and 28 Nov 2020 to take part in the 4th NSA Level Meeting on Trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation. The dialogue mechanism involves Maldives, in addition to India and Sri Lanka. The meeting also saw participation of Mauritius and Seychelles. The meeting provided an opportunity for discussion on issues pertaining to cooperation in maritime security in the Indian Ocean region. The participating countries also explored the expansion of the dialogue’s ambit to include terrorism, separatism and expansionism.

Comments: This was the first such meeting after six years. The first such trilateral meeting took place in 2011, followed by one in 2012, and thereafter in 2014. The current NSA-level meeting is significant because it involves both the Maldives and Sri Lanka, countries that have very different geostrategic orientations because of their current leaders. Maldives’ President Ibrahim Solih has enthusiastically welcomed a greater role for India and the US in the region. However this has not been the case with Sri Lanka since Rajapaksa brothers returned to power last year. Sri Lanka has kept its options to engage with other major powers – mainly China – for its economic development, even though it rhetorically committed to an ‘India first’ approach when it comes to security.

Source: https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/colombo-hosts-india-maldives-sri-lanka-maritime- security-nsa-trilateral-meeting/

India-Thailand-Singapore Naval Exercise in the Andaman Sea. The second edition of the India-Thailand-Singapore trilateral Naval exercise SITMEX-20 was conducted in the Andaman Sea from 21 to 22 Nov 2020. The Indian Navy deployed indigenous ASW corvette INS Kamorta and missile corvette INS Karmuk for the exercise hosted by the Singapore Navy. Singapore deployed a ‘Formidable’ Class frigate ‘Intrepid’ and ‘Endurance’ Class Landing Ship Tank ‘Endeavour’ and the Royal Thai Navy deployed a ‘Chao Phraya’ Class frigate ‘Kraburi’ for the exercise. Besides improving inter-operability between the friendly navies, SITMEX series of exercise also aim to strengthen mutual confidence and develop common understanding and procedures towards enhancing the overall maritime security in the region.

Thereafter, 27th edition of India-Singapore Bilateral Maritime Exercise SIMBEX-20 was scheduled in the same area from 23 to 25 Nov 2020. Indian Navy deployed destroyer INS Rana in addition to INS Kamorta and INS Karmuk. Indian Navy submarine INS Sindhuraj and P8I maritime reconnaissance aircraft also participated.

Comments. The exercises highlighted growing synergy, coordination and cooperation in maritime domain between the three friendly navies and maritime neighbours in South East Asia. They were conducted as a ‘non-contact, at sea only’ 6 event in view of COVID-19 pandemic. The first edition of SITMEX was hosted by the Indian Navy and was held off Port Blair in Sep 2019.

Source: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indian-navy-participates-in-two-day-trilateral- exercise-sitmex-20-in-andaman-sea/article33154462.ece

Latest Indian Navy Procurements from the US: Predator drones on lease and Second set of P8I Surveillance Aircraft. The Indian Navy inducted two American Predator drones on lease from the US on 26 Nov 2020, to carry out surveillance in the Indian Ocean region. Capable of operating for more than 30 hours, the drones are operating from Indian Navy's INS Rajali airbase near Chennai. Predator drones arrived in India around mid-Nov 2020. As part of the lease agreement, the American support staff will only assist with maintenance and technical issues; and has also deployed a team to guide the personnel on operating the drones. This means that sortie planning and joystick control will rest with Indian Navy personnel. Data gathered during the flights by the Predator drones will also be the exclusive property of the Indian Navy.

Additionally, the Indian Navy received its ninth P-8I surveillance aircraft at its naval airbase in Goa on 18 Nov 2020. It is the first of four additional aircraft, which were ordered by India after the completion of the initial order for eight aircraft. The P-8I aircraft is equipped for long-range anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in support of the broad area, maritime and littoral operations. Its communication and sensor suite also includes indigenous equipment developed by defence PSUs and private manufacturers.

Comments: The American Predator drones could also be made available to Indian forces along the LAC in eastern Ladakh, where India and China are engaged in a military standoff. The option of leasing weapon systems has been provisioned under the Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020 and the Defence Procurement Manual 2009. This helps India to reduce expenditure since the responsibility of maintenance also lies with the vendor.

The P-8I aircraft is a variant of the P-8A Poseidon aircraft that Boeing developed as a replacement for the US Navy's aging P-3 fleet. Indian Navy became the first international customer for the P-8 aircraft with the conclusion of nearly US $ 2.1 billion contract on 01 Jan 2009, for eight aircraft. With its high speed and long endurance of about 10 hours, the aircraft is capable of carrying out punitive response and maintaining a watch over India's immediate and extended areas of interest.

Over the past few months, India and the US have been working closely, particularly after manifestation of aggressive Chinese behaviour. They recently signed the basic foundation agreements for cooperation in defence and national security domains. Under this partnership, the US is helping India with surveillance and information sharing in all domains. Even in the case of helicopters, India is buying 24 number MH-60 Romeos which will give the naval forces a multirole capability.

Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/navy-inducts-predator-drones-on-lease-from-us- for-indian-ocean-surveillance-1744115-2020-11-26; https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/p8i-surveillance-plane-indian-navy-goa-naval-base- 665867

India’s IRNSS Approved as part of World-Wide Radio Navigation System. The Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) has been accepted as a 7 component of the World Wide Radio Navigation System (WWRNS) for operation in the Indian Ocean Region by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). This will enable merchant vessels to use IRNSS for obtaining position information similar to GPS and GLONASS, to assist in navigation within the area covered by 50°N latitude, 55°E longitude, 5°S latitude and 110°E longitude (approximately up to 1500 km from Indian coastline. The Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) of IMO during its 102nd session held from 04 to 11 Nov 2020 approved the recognition of IRNSS. A circular to this effect was issued by IMO on 11 Nov 2020 for information of other Member States of the Organization.

Comments. IRNSS is an independent regional navigation satellite system developed by India. It is designed to provide accurate position information service to assist in the navigation of ships in Indian Ocean waters. This is a significant achievement of Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways (MoPSW), Directorate General of Shipping (DGS) and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) towards ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’. Indian Directorate General of Shipping (DGS) had initiated the matter with International Maritime Organization.

Source: https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1674483

JAPAN & KOREA Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari

Japan & Australia Sign Landmark Defence Deal to Counter China's Growing Influence in South China Sea.1 Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and his Australian counterpart Scott Morrison have signed a landmark defence deal in a bid to counter China's growing influence in the South China Sea and over the Pacific island nations on 17 Nov 2020. Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) comes weeks after foreign ministers of the Quad alliance, which includes the US and India, met in Tokyo. The pact allows Japanese and Australian troops to visit each other's countries and conduct training and joint operations. Australian Prime Minister said that the treaty will strengthen their security ties and facilitate cooperation between defence forces. The joint statement said, the two sides also agreed on the need for a framework to allow Japanese military to protect Australian forces if needed. It also expressed serious concern about the situation in the South China Sea and reconfirmed their strong opposition to any coercive or unilateral attempts to change the status quo and thereby increase tensions in the region.

Comments. Australia and Japan signed an agreement on a defence pact that will allow their forces to train in each other’s territory, as both countries seek to navigate tensions with an increasingly assertive China. Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) comes weeks after foreign ministers of the Quad alliance, which includes the US and India, met in Tokyo. This agreement will mark the first time in many years that Tokyo has approved a deal permitting foreign troops to operate on its soil. This agreement will pave the way for increased defence cooperation and joint exercises between Japan and Australia.

1http://newsonair.com/News?title=Japan-%26-Australia-sign-landmark-defence-deal-to- counter-China%26%2339%3Bs-growing-influence-in-South-China-Sea&id=404468 8

South Korea Deploys Cheongung II Surface-to-Air Missile.2 According to Yonhap Agency, a newly upgraded interceptor missile, often dubbed the Korean equivalent of the U.S.-made Patriot missile defense system, has been delivered to the South Korean Air Force, the arms procurement agency said on November 26. The Agency for Defense Development began the upgrade project in 2012, and the missile system has recorded a 100 percent accuracy rate at multiple test launches, officials said. The KM-SAM, which is also known as the Cheolmae-2 or Cheongung II or M-SAM, is a medium range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system that was developed by the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) with technical support from Almaz-Antey and Fakel, based on technology from the 9M96 missile used on S- 350E and S-400 missile systems. A complete battery consists of up to six 8-cell transporter erector launchers (TELs), a passive electronically scanned array (PESA) X-band multi-function phased array 3D radar (based on the one from the Russian S- 400), and a fire command vehicle. The radar operates in the X-band and rotates at a rate of 40 rpm, covering up to 80 degrees in elevation. Though it was developed in Russia by the Almaz Design Bureau with assistance from Samsung Thales, LIG Nex1, and Doosan DST, localization and industrialization were done in South Korea enough to consider it an indigenous system. The Cheongung (Iron Hawk) can intercept targets up to an altitude of 15 km (49,000 ft) at a range of 40 km (25 mi). It is to replace upgraded MIM-23 Hawk batteries in South Korea and be made available for export. In April 2017, South Korean military officials revealed that a low- tier missile defense system based on the Cheongung was in the final phase of development. Modifying the standard SAM with hit-to-kill technology enables it to intercept incoming ballistic missiles at altitudes of around 20 km (66,000 ft).Also, the Cheongung II will be able to be launched from the Korean Vertical Launch System (K-VLS) aboard Daegu-class frigates in a naval role.

Comments. A newly upgraded Cheongung II interceptor missile, equivalent of the U.S. made Patriot missile defense system, has been deployed by the South Korean Air Force on 26 Nov 2020. Cheongung II is the upgraded version of the South Korea’s first indigenously developed medium-range surface-to-air guided missile Gheongung I. This missile is a medium range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system that was developed by the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) South Korea and based on technology from the 9M96 missile used on S-350E and S-400 missile systems. It can detect targets within 100 km (62 mi) and track up to 40 simultaneously. The KM-SAM is the middle-tier of South Korea's three-tier aerial and missile defense system. This missile has boosted the defence capabilities of South Korea Armed Forces.

Reference.https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_november_2020_global_security_ army_industry/south_korea_deploys_cheongung_ii_surface-to-air_missile.html

UNITED STATES Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

Defence Cooperation with the United States. India has inducted two American drones — Sea Guardian, unarmed version of the deadly Predator series — into the Navy on lease under the emergency procurement in the backdrop of the tensions with China in Ladakh. MQ-9 Guardian/Predator-B, have been leased from an

2https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_november_2020_global_security_army_ind ustry/south_korea_deploys_cheongung_ii_surface-to-air_missile.html 9

American firm, General Atomics, for a year for surveillance in the Indian Ocean Region but these could also be used for surveillance role in Ladakh.

China is known a depend a lot on the unmanned vehicles and thus could be expected to be used by them in any future conflict.

US in 2018 had agreed to sell 22 unarmed versions of MQ-9 Guardian/Predator-B drones to India but, finding their prohibitive price and the fact same drone can be used for surveillance and attack hence, buying of unarmed version had been deferred. The facts that now we have taken on lease just two unarmed drones, indicates that we are having a rethink on the purchase. The signing of Communication Compatibility and Security Arrangement (CAMCASA) agreement earlier and recent signing of Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) with United States last month has made this deal possible. The Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020 has also kept option of leasing weapon systems. This would help India to cut expenditure since the responsibility of maintenance also lies with the vendor.

In the recently concluded war between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the drones have played a decisive role in the win by the Azerbaijan. Russian origin Armenian air defenses seemingly failed to detect and neutralize the new threat. It is given that China too would use these unmanned assets extensively in any war with India hence, we need to equip ourselves to meet the challenge both for its varied use as well as by developing adequate defences against these. The detection of drones in the hilly terrain would be a challenge considering the shadow and screening effect of the mountains. Hence, this area needs particular attention. Except a large drone the small drones would be difficult to detect due to their low radar cross section. Hence, a combination of the radar, video/electro-optical (EO), audio/acoustic, and RF- based techniques will have to be used. Similarly, to neutralize a plethora of options from kinetic means, electronic warfare (EW) and cyber warfare (CW) techniques etc will have to use.

IRAN Col Siddhartha Sharma

News / Developments.

(a) Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian Professor of physics who was the brains behind Project Amad, Tehran's alleged programme for building a nuclear bomb, was killed near the city of Absard, 50 miles from Tehran on 27 Nov 20 in an ambush. The ambush is believed to be carried out by specialist troops.

(b) Iran immediately accused Israel of being behind Fakhrizadeh's death. Iran believes that Israel had carried similar assassinations in past also. Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani declared that Iran would retaliate for the murder.

(c) Freed Australian academic Kylie Moore-Gilbert has paid tribute to her family, friends and colleagues who campaigned for her release while she was held in Iranian prisons for more than two years. .After 804 days in prison on espionage charges widely dismissed as baseless, Moore-Gilbert was released last week in a complex and dramatic prisoner swap for three convicted Iranian bombers in prison in Thailand. 10

(d) Iran’s parliament gave preliminary approval to draft legislation that could end inspections of its nuclear sites by early next year, a move that would further weaken the country’s commitment to an already fragile nuclear deal. Iran said that Inspections by international monitors would be restricted if U.S. oil and banking sanctions aren’t lifted within three months of the bill’s approval. The proposal still requires final approval by parliament and the Guardian Council that vets laws. In accordance with the multi-party nuclear pact struck five years ago, Iran agreed to give United Nations inspectors more intrusive access to atomic sites.

Comments.

(a) The change of Presidency in US would affect Iran’s future in regional politics and its nuclear program. Joe Biden though is unlikely to change policies towards Israel and Iran, however, is unlikely would favour Israel the way Trump did.

(b) For India, its nuanced relationship with Iran, be it economic, political or strategic, has been held at ransom ever since Trump’s withdrawal from JCPOA. If Biden resumes negotiations with Iran, it will ease up issues like the Chabahar Port and have a similar effect on countries around India like Afghanistan and Pakistan, AFGHANISTAN Col Siddhartha Sharma

News/Development

(a) NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the military alliance faces a difficult dilemma over its future in Afghanistan. “Whether to leave, and risk that Afghanistan becomes once again a safe haven for international terrorists. Or stay, and risk a longer mission, with renewed violence," Stoltenberg said. The US troop withdrawal will, of course, reduce the US presence in Afghanistan, he said, adding: “But the NATO Training Mission will continue in its current configuration, meaning that we will maintain the different bases, including the German-led base in the north, Mazar-e-Sharif, and then the Italian-led in the west, Herat.”

(b) The Afghanistan government has said that the Pakistan Taliban had a role in the Helmand attacks and Afghan forces have killed around 200 of them who were involved in the incident. According to a report by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), around 6,500 Pakistan terrorists are operating in Afghanistan most of them belonging to the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

(c) International donors have pledged billions of dollars in civilian aid for Afghanistan, but many imposed tough conditions pending on progress in peace talks under way between the country’s government and the Taliban.

Comments

(a) India has invested close to 3.5 Billion dollars in Afghanistan. The support by India is hugely appreciated in Afghanistan as the investments are intelligent and visible. India is rightly engaging all parties in Afghanistan and with caution as it is never sure which way governance in Afghanistan would tilt.

(b) Withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan is a landmark event. The Afghan Government will find it difficult to manage without financial assistance from the US 11 and its allies. The presence of US air-power will also be necessary to prevent a Taliban takeover. The base is also likely to close when the remaining US troops pull out in an years’ time.

MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI LANKA Brig Rajat Upreti

MALDIVES

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval on Saturday took part in the trilateral maritime dialogue in Colombo among India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives eyeing to counter terrorism & radicalism through effective intelligence cooperation. The discussions of the trilateral meeting were formalised through signing of the minutes by Doval, Sri Lankan Defence Secretary Major Gen (Retd.) Kamal Gunaratne and Maldivian Defence Minister Mariya Didi. Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena addressed the meeting as the chief guest. Foreign Secretary Admiral Prof. Jayanath Colombage also attended the event. The meeting was attended by observers from Bangladesh, Mauritius and Seychelles. Doval also met Gunaratne on Friday and they agreed on several steps to further strengthen the "valuable" cooperation between the two countries which also contributes to peace and security in the region.

Comments. The partnership also assumes significance amid Beijing’s growing ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region including Indian Ocean Region. The dialogue was held here after a gap of six years. The last meeting was held in New Delhi in 2014. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-sri-lanka-and-maldives-agree-to

The budget for 2021 was approved by the Parliament on Monday. The budget of MVR 34.9 billion was approved with 68 members voting in its favour. Only one lawmaker voted against the budget. The Finance Ministry originally proposed a budget of MVR 34.7 billion for the upcoming year, and estimated a revenue of MVR 17.8 billion including grant aid. While a recurrent expenditure of MVR 33.3 billion was projected, the budget proposed for 2021 had an overall deficit of MVR 15.5 billion. The projected revenue was also revised by the committee from MVR 17.8 billion to MVR 21.1 billion. The committee also allocated an additional budget of MVR 2 billion for the upcoming local council election. The committee signed off on a total budget of MVR 34.9 billion, with the deficit decreased to MVR 12.3 billion with the new revisions.

Comments. The recommendations in the budget report were also approved by the parliament. The recommendations include sharing with the Parliament the details of any loans issued to the state against guarantees provided by the state on a quarterly basis. https://avas.mv/en/92266

PAKISTAN

Parliamentary Secretary for Foreign Affairs Andleeb Abbas represented Pakistan in the 19th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Government of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO-CHG) hosted by India via video conference on Monday. India assumed the chair of the SCO Council of Heads of Government on Nov 2 last year 12 as per rotation from Uzbekistan, the previous chair, and completed its year-long tenure by hosting for the first time a summit-level meeting since it gained full membership of the organisation in 2017. Ms Abbas highlighted the importance of SCO for Pakistan in achieving regional peace and stability, and development of closer ties with regional partners through multi-faceted linkages and connectivity. Ms Abbas emphasized the need for cooperation, collaboration and sharing of knowledge and expertise to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. Earlier, PM Khan had participated in the SCO Council of Heads of State (SCO-CHS), which is the highest forum of SCO, held in virtual format on Nov 10, 2020.

Comments. SCO has immense potential for fostering a conducive environment for regional stability, security and comprehensive economic development. The SCO provides Pakistan a platform for increased engagement with key global and regional partners and build further linkages with Central Asia. https://www.dawn.com/news/1593338/pakistan-attends-sco-meeting-hosted-by-india

Pakistan and China on Monday inked a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for enhancement of defence cooperation between the armies of the two countries. Prior to signing of the MoU, General Wei Fenghe, Minister of National Defence of China, called on General Qamar Javed Bajwa, Chief of the Army Staff, at the General Headquarters. The visiting dignitary appreciated Pakistan army’s efforts for regional peace and provision of secure environment for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects. The Chief of the Army Staff thanked the dignitary for China’s support to Pakistan on all key issues at regional and international forums. The COAS said that Pakistan army greatly valued time-tested and brotherly relations with China. “We have been standing together all along and our relations will be no different in view of future challenges,” the COAS said.

Comments. During the meeting, matters of mutual interest, regional security and enhanced bilateral defence collaboration were discussed. Matters related to changing geostrategic environment and further strengthening of security and defence cooperation between the two countries were also discussed. Both the sides reaffirmed their commitment to ‘Iron Brotherhood’ and ‘All-Weather’ friendship with continued efforts to forge deeper strategic ties for a shared future and security vision. https://www.dawn.com/news/1593334/mou-signed-with-china-to-enhance-defence-ties

A Pakistani court on Thursday sentenced Islamist leader Hafiz Saeed, founder of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), the militant group blamed by the United States and India for the 2008 Mumbai siege, to 10 years in prison on two charges of terrorism financing, his lawyer said. The sentences for the two charges - five years each - will run concurrently. Saeed is already in jail serving two sentences of five-and-a-half-years each, handed down to him in February this year, which means he will not serve any extra jail time.“An anti-terrorism court in Lahore sentenced ten-and-a-half years imprisonment to chief of Jamaatud Dawa Hafiz Saeed, his deputy Zafar Iqbal, and spokesman Yahya Mujahid on charges of terror financing,” Saeed’s lawyer Imran Fazal Gill told Reuters. Appeals have been filed against previous sentences, Gill said.

Comments. Saeed has been arrested and released several times over the past decade. He denies any involvement with militancy, including the 2008 Mumbai siege in which 160 people were killed, including Americans. The United States offered a 13 reward of $10 million for information leading to the conviction of Saeed. The conviction comes as Pakistan tries to avoid punitive blacklisting by global dirty money watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which judges a country’s ability to combat illicit financing, including to militant organisations. Pakistan has remained on the “grey list” since 2018. In FATF’s last review in October, Pakistan was urged to complete an internationally agreed action plan by February 2021 and to demonstrate that terrorism financing probes resulted in effective sanctions. Saeed’s lawyer said his client was convicted under FATF pressure. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pakistan-court-militancy-financing/pakistani-islamist-

SRI LANKA

India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval concluded a three-day visit to Colombo on Sunday after “fruitful discussions” with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa on trade, new investments and security amid plans to bolster bilateral ties with the island nation. Doval took part in a trilateral forum with Maldivian Defense Minister Mariya Ahmed Didi and Kamal Gunaratne, Sri Lanka’s Defense Secretary, on Saturday, with officials from Mauritius and Seychelles attending virtually. In a joint statement after the meeting, Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Defense said that the 4th National Security Adviser-level trilateral Maritime Security Cooperation meeting had been revived after a six-year gap to expand the scope of intelligence sharing, including terrorism and cyber security, based on “common security threats.” “The Indian Ocean commands 60 percent of the world’s gross domestic product, has 80 percent of the world’s ship borne energy transport, and facilitates 46 percent of the world’s merchandise trade — maritime security remains one of our highest priorities,” Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena said during his opening address at the forum. The three countries also agreed to improve intelligence sharing and “focus on issues such as terrorism, radicalization, extremism, drugs, arms and human trafficking, money laundering, cyber security and climate change,” the statement said. Muheed Jeeran, a lobbyist, told Arab News that the forum took place at the “right time” when other countries “were looking for a berth in the Indian Ocean.” “The representatives of the three countries would have chalked out the preventive measures that could be adopted in case of a third-party interference,” Jeeran said. Regional security “will lead to peace in the Indian Ocean,” he added.

Comments. As one of Sri Lanka’s closest neighbours, India is among its top investors with cumulative investments amounting to more than US$1.2 billion since 2003. According to the Indian Board of Investment, bilateral trade between the two countries totalled $4.59 billion in 2019. The first meeting was held in 2011 and, later, in New Delhi in 2014. Current observers Bangladesh, Mauritius and Seychelles will become permanent members soon. https://ceylontoday.lk/news/india-sri-lanka-strengthen-trade-security-ties

Fitch Ratings today downgraded Sri Lanka's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC' from ‘B-‘with ‘Negative’ outlook. The rating agency said it does no assign outlooks or apply modifiers to sovereigns with a rating. The downgrade reflects Sri Lanka's increasingly challenging external-debt repayment position over the medium term. In particular, a sharp rise in the sovereign debt to GDP ratio associated with the coronavirus shock and narrowing financing options have heightened debt sustainability risks.

14

Comments. Sri Lanka's economic performance has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through multiple channels, even though the virus has been relatively well contained domestically. Travel and tourism, which is an important driver of the economy has been hard hit and the outlook for its recovery remains uncertain and dependent on the evolution of the pandemic. The direct contribution of tourism to GDP is about 4%, but the indirect spill-over effect is much higher. Sri Lanka's external funding needs are substantial over the medium term. Risks to the sovereign's ability to meet its external-debt service obligations have increased. The government's external-debt obligations amount to USD23.2 billion between 2021 and 2025 or about USD4 billion annually, against FX reserves at end-October of just USD5.9 billion. http://www.dailymirror.lk/business_247/Fitch-downgrades-Sri-Lanka-to-CCC/395-200734

STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES Air Cmde T Chand (Retd)

Important Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) Research Outcomes during 2020. AI and its associated technologies such as Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) are developing very fast. US, China and EU have published a record number of papers on these subjects during this year, which give us a sense of direction these technologies are being developed. Soon these developments will be incorporated into defence applications by advanced weapons developers the world over. Mario Yao have shortlisted ten research papers on AI and ML which are considered as most important, open source developments of 2020 so far3. Generative Pre-trained Transformer-3 (GPT-3) by ‘OpenAI’ of USA is considered the most famous, but there are definitely many other research papers worth our attention.

OpenAI’s GPT-3 is famous because it can now generate the code for us, writes ‘Ram Sagar’4. In MIT Review, the author ‘Will Douglas Heaven archive’ states that OpenAI’s new language generator GPT-3 is shockingly good—and completely mindless5. (GPT-3) is an autoregressive language model that uses deep learning to produce human-like text. It is the third-generation language prediction model in the GPT series created by ‘OpenAI’, a San Francisco-based artificial intelligence research laboratory. GPT-3's full version has a capacity of 175 billion machine learning parameters. It was introduced in May 2020 and is part of a trend in Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems of pre-trained language representations. Before the release of GPT-3, the largest language model was Microsoft's Turing NLG, introduced in February 2020, with a capacity of 17 billion parameters or less than 10 percent compared to GPT-36.

Also, teams from Google introduced a revolutionary chatbot, Meena, and ‘EfficientDet’ object detectors in image recognition. Researchers from Yale introduced a novel ‘AdaBelief optimiSer’ that combines many benefits of existing

3 Mario Yao, TOPBOT, dated 24 Nov 20;https://www.topbots.com/ai-machine-learning- research-papers- 2020/?utm_campaign=Artificial%2BIntelligence%2BWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_source= Artificial_Intelligence_Weekly_189 4Ram Sagar, https://analyticsindiamag.com/open-ai-gpt-3-code-generator-app-building/ 5 Will Douglas Heavenarchive, https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/07/20/1005454/openai- machine-learning-language-generator-gpt-3-nlp/ 6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3 15 optimisation methods. OpenAI researchers demonstrated how deep reinforcement learning techniques can achieve superhuman performance in ‘Dota 2’.

Ten important papers on AI, ML and DL presented during 2020 and shortlisted by Mario Yao are as follows7:-

 A Distributed Multi-Sensor Machine Learning Approach to Earthquake Early Warning

 Efficiently Sampling Functions from Gaussian Process Posteriors

 Dota 2 with Large Scale Deep Reinforcement Learning

 Towards a Human-like Open-Domain Chatbot

 Language Models are Few-Shot Learners

 Beyond Accuracy: Behavioral Testing of NLP models with Check List

 EfficientDet: Scalable and Efficient Object Detection

 Unsupervised Learning of Probably Symmetric Deformable 3D Objects from Images in the Wild

 An Image is Worth 16×16 Words: Transformers for Image Recognition at Scale  AdaBelief Optimizer: Adapting Stepsizes by the Belief in Observed Gradients

These papers give a broad overview of AI research advancements this year. There are many more breakthrough papers worth reading as well.

NUCLEAR Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

On Friday, Iran’s senior nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was assassinated near Tehran. He was the head of the Research Innovation organization of the Ministry of the Defence. According to the media reports as per the media reports, the scientist’s car was targeted at about 40 km east of Tehran and the scientist was mortally wounded. How the attack was carried out is still not clear. However, it is suspected that Israel has remotely attacked the nuclear scientist.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was one of the most prominent nuclear scientists of Iran and headed the Iran’s AMAD Project which Israel and West has alleged, is a military operation looking at the feasibility of building of a nuclear weapon. Besides, he was also a member of the elite Iran’s revolutionary guards. Beginning of this year, Iran said that it would abandon the adherence to the limitation on enrichment of uranium

7 Mario Yao, TOPBOT, dated 24 Nov 20;https://www.topbots.com/ai-machine-learning- research-papers- 2020/?utm_campaign=Artificial%2BIntelligence%2BWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_source= Artificial_Intelligence_Weekly_189

16 imposed by the six nations Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran suspects Israel involvement in the assassination, in a bid to interrupt Iran’s nuclear development.8 Israel has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement but, major suspicion rests with Israel asit would not feel safe with nuclear Iran. Moreover, this is not the first such incident of assassination. In fact, between 2010 and 2012, four Iranian nuclear scientists (Masoud Alimohammadi, Majid Shahriari, Darioush Rezaeinejad and Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan) were assassinated, while another (Fereydoon Abbasi) was wounded in an attempted murder.

After US withdrawal in 2018 from the JCPOA, the six nation’s agreement with Iran, which barred Iran from uranium enrichment and development of nuclear weapons. US even re-imposed economic sanctions despite IAEA certifying that Iran is complying with the stipulations of the JCPOA. In 2019 Iran declared that now it will not adhere to the agreement. It was not allowed a uranium stock of more than 202.8kg. This limit has been breached and it seems as on November its nuclear stock pile is 2,442.9 kg. Its uranium enrichment level was pegged at 3.6%. It breached this level in 2019 and has remained steady at 4.5%.Iran was allowed to use first generation centrifuges to produce enriched uranium but, since the 2019, Iran began enrichment with advanced centrifuges. As per a conservative estimate, Iran could assemble a nuclear device in about a year. However, as per David Albright, a former UN weapon inspector who tends to have hawkish position on Iran believes that Iran’s break out time could be as short as 3.5 months. Thus, it seems that assassination of the nuclear scientist has been carried out in an attempt to halt Iran’s Nuclear weapon programme.

US President elect, Joe Biden most likely would resurrect the old deal. He had given clear hint on this in his election campaign. It is possible, that the assassination of the scientist may also have been meant to jeopardize this or it may also be meant to push Iran to retaliate. Both cases would create hurdles in resurrection of the Iran nuclear deal.

Iran’s nuclear programme has suffered a serious blow. Death of the top scientist will deter other scientists from joining the nuclear programme. Analysts see yet another possibility that, the incident may turn Iran more adamant and it may now pursue the programme vigorously. After all, Iran is aware of the North Korea’s case that once nuclear weapon is made this could not be dismantled unless Iran wants. It will also deter US and West from taking any offensive action against Iran especially, as it already has well developed missile regime for delivery of the weapon.

SPACE Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

Hazards to the Space Assets. Indian satellite Cartosat-2F reportedly came too close (224 meters) to a Russian earth observation satellite Kanopus-V. The incident happened in a low earth orbit on 27 November, and the same was subsequently reported by Roscosmos, Russia's state-controlled space agency. ISRO Chief K. Sivan later said that two satellites coming close to each other is a fairly regular occurrence, and such things aren't usually reported in public. Sivan also reportedly said that ISRO had been tracking Cartosat-2F's trajectory for four days, and that any route correcting manoeuvre would have only been done once the two satellites came

8https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-who-was-mohsen-fakhrizadeh-the- assassinated-iranian-nuclear-scientist-7071868/ 17 within proximity of less than 150 meters from each other. In fact, a similar close approach between satellites also happened with a Spanish unit recently.9

Comments. Presently, there are 2,666 are active satellites in orbit. There is more than double of these numbers that are dead or lost, and still flying around in their orbits incommunicado. In addition, there are there are around 34,000 pieces of space junk bigger than 10 centimeters in size and millions of smaller pieces that could nonetheless prove disastrous if they collide. Hence, there is always fear of collision and satellites are observed manually along with use of numerous technologies for collision avoidance. Collisions are rare because when a satellite is launched, it is placed into an orbit designed to avoid other satellites. But, orbits can change over time and the chances of a crash increase as more and more satellites are launched. With more and more reliance on space assets, many new states and private commercial organizations are venturing in to the satellite launches. In fact, it is predicted that in about a decade, there will be more than 50000 satellites in the space. SpaceX, Amazon, One Web, and other companies plan to collectively launch as many as 57,000 new satellites before the end of 2030as host of services in civil and military would be provided by the space assets.This would also lead to manifold increase in the junk in the space.

The situation definitely looks challenging. According to the space experts there is a plenty of space for many satellites to orbit Earth but, sharing of the satellite data is incumbent and at the same time, the monitoring facilities like radars telescopes etc. will also increase manifold. Second, newer satellites are being built to burn up in Earth's atmosphere at the end of their lifetimes rather than remain in orbit so that these will not pose danger to other satellites and finally satellites are being designed to have avoidance systems to reduce the chance of accidental collisions.

9https://www.news18.com/news/tech/isro-cartosat-2f-comes-too-close-to-russian-satellite-in- space-collision-avoided-3125858.html