June 25, 2017 17

Europe after elections

Francis Ghilès explores future scenarios in the United Kingdom and after recent elections: Britain cannot have its cake and eat it, too

ritain is an Monetary Fund. The south-east tion, so London should demand economy on the region transfers more than $60 guarantees of open borders with brink. Brexitology, billion a year to the rest of the Brussels, and Berlin. which is a new country. Every million dollars that Most Brexiters want to bring form of astrology, is reduced by Brexit is a million back control over immigration but suggests a soft off the National Health Service farmers want an exception for fruit version of Brexit (NHS), a million more austerity pickers, builders for bricklayers, will be kinder to for Scotland, the north of England universities for foreign students Bthe economy than the hard and Wales. and hospitals for nurses. London version. Electors, however, That the economic opportuni- Mayor Sadiq Khan should do like deserve better than the wishful ties London offers and the cultural California, which refuses to bow thinking they were happy to vibrancy it displays should be to US President Donald Trump’s indulge in when British Foreign under attack from the majority proposed migrant expulsions. Minister Boris Johnson told them of Britain’s political class is odd Soft Brexit means leaving the a year ago that they could have insofar as it is the cash cow that European Union while staying in their cake and eat it, too. allows governments of all colour the single market and customs Hard facts show that the Brexit to promise high-quality public union. That would not allow process is built on an enormous services, not least the NHS, which Britain to start trade negotiations lie. The idea that Britain could all regions want and expect. with other countries. It will mean take back control from the Europe- Conservatives are even more continuing to pay large sums of an Union was always an illusion. hostile to London than Labour, money into the EU budget while What is not is the damage that with its recent manifesto calling having no access to structural Brexit could inflict on the econo- for arts funding to be redistributed funds that are so vital to Wales, my of London, to the detriment of from the capital and many civil which voted to leave last year. the rest of the kingdom. servants to be relocated by force. In no way would it prevent the London raises one-third of Brit- Such economic frivolity borders European Court of Justice from ain’s tax revenue. Were it a nation- on economic madness. Surely the having full jurisdiction over Brit- state it would have a budget challenge is to improve the perfor- ish matters to do with the single surplus of 7% of gross domestic mance of the regions — Manches- market. Britain would have no say product. By contrast, Scotland, ter’s recent success shows it can over regulations that govern finan- Wales and Northern Ireland would be done — not penalise London. cial services, social legislation and Lingering bitterness. Demonstrators from pro-EU group Open have budget deficits greater than About 40% of London’s work- safety standards. It would not be Britain protest outside of the Houses of Parliament in central 10% of their national incomes. force is from abroad; in the able to limit immigration from EU London, last March. (AFP) In other words, were it not for hospitality sector that percentage members but British citizens living London, they would have to go is much higher. A Brexit clamp on in countries of the union would hand in cap to the International migration of 100,000 people a year lose EU citizenship rights. surged across the continent since the halls of Westminster? How would impose economic sanctions Finally, Britain must foot a bill the Brexit referendum in London, long will it take for Conservatives on London. Slamming shut the of more than $125 billion to stay even in the other parts of the king- to recover their sanity and under- door on the most cosmopolitan in the single market. Contrary to dom. There are many Eurosceptics stand that an assault on the wealth Most Brexiters city in the world would be an what May and Brexiters have said, in the European Union, not least and vibrancy of London could want to bring act of self-mutilation. It is this is a very good deal for the of all in France. They now have destroy the United Kingdom, po- senseless. European Union and an absolutely the leisure of contemplating their litically and economically? back control over Members of parliament catastrophic one for Britain. dreams shattering the brick wall of Is it not time London held the immigration from London should provide Many Europeans are thank- reality. House of Commons for ransom some sanity to Prime Minister ing the British for their madness How long will it be before the for the greater good of the United but some Theresa May’s government. As because two wilful Conservative British realise that they have been Kingdom and receive a helping Ulster MPs demand guarantees Party decisions have vaccinated taken for a ride by the most frivo- hand from Conservative MPs from professions want of an open border with the Repub- Europe against populism. Sup- lous group of politicians that ever London and Scotland and Labour exceptions. lic of Ireland to join in the coali- port for the European Union has graced (if that is the right word) MPs encouraged by Khan? Domestic reform agenda is Macron’s priority

e’s a cat. You ism of respect for Islam at a time of time since its creation a century sector-based rules. Lay-offs would fails, its leaders could opt for la poli- throw him frequent terrorist attacks in Europe ago, the French Democratic Con- be eased and damages that judges tique du pire. “ through the but relations with the Maghreb will federation of Labour (CFDT) sup- can impose on employers in case The Socialist Party, with 44 depu- window and not figure among Macron’s imme- planted the more hard-line General of wrongful decisions would be ties, has been mauled and will have he manages diate priorities — these are exclu- Confederation of Labour (CGT) as capped. to reinvent itself. Caught between to fall on his sively domestic due to his heavy France’s biggest union by winning Macron wants the government those in its ranks, including former feet.” calendar of reforms. the largest share of worker repre- to wrest back control over a benefit ministers from François Hollande’s That is how The leaders of the two extreme sentatives in the private sector last system co-managed by unions and government who have moved to AlainH Minc, an old acquaintance, parties — Marine Le Pen for the winter. This has put CFDT leader business representatives, whose Macron’s movement and the harsh describes the most modern coming National Front (with eight deputies) Laurent Berger, who said his un- crass mismanagement has put it $37 criticism of Mélenchon, that will be of age in modern French politics. and Jean-Luc Mélenchon for La ion’s momentum provides a historic billion in debt. Further reforms on no easy matter. , the youngest France insoumise (LFI), (which has chance to overhaul France’s often pensions and labour charges could The conservative Republicans in more than 17 deputies) — in the new assem- conflict-ridden labour rela- fuel strong opposition. fared better but their 137 deputies 150 years, has seized control of par- bly have argued that fewer voters tions and move it closer The street’s view is: The status are divided between those who liament after his recently created mean less legitimacy for the new to the more collaborative quo is terrible but must never want to work, à la carte so to speak, party En Marche! won a majority of head of state and his government. German model, in the change. Immobilisme, as the French with Macron and those who feel seats in the legislative elections. Soul searching awaits the Na- spotlight. call it, is, therefore, not an accident; more comfortable hugging Le Pen’s The 350 En Marche! deputies in- tional Front, which fell short of The five key reforms it is the system. Will Macron break more overtly racist, anti-European clude a higher proportion than pre- the 15-seat threshold needed to that will make or break out of this self-perpetuating cycle? and pessimistic vision. The three vious governments of women and be recognised as a parlia- the presidency include The failure of the past three presi- left-wing parties strongly dis- professionals who had never before mentary group and reforming the labour dents does not condemn him to fail. like Macron’s intention of writing stood in an election. However, the get speaking time code, unemploy- Despite their small number of powers that come with the state of 57% rate of abstention suggests that and additional re- ment benefits deputies, both extreme parties, emergency into regular law. many electors are bored with a long sources. The voice and job training, maybe with the help of the CGT, As for his ambitious plans to re- drawn-out electoral process. Some of the LFI leader pensions and will put up a fight. The National form the European Union and push observers said it was evidence of a will be heard labour charges, Front has seen its vote halved for more integration among its core dormant hostility towards the new loudly in parlia- making Europe between the presidential and the members, they will have to wait president and his reforms. ment and on great again and legislative elections. Its two bas- until after the German elections France’s strong links with the the streets. He making the state tions remain the northern rust next September. Before that, the Maghreb are symbolised by the argues that the of emergency belt of France and the south. The new president has to show his met- youngest member of the govern- president has permanent. disappointment of its militants are tle on domestic reform. That will be ment, a self-taught digital guru “no legitimacy The key hard to disguise. The National Front the acid test of his presidency. from a poor immigrant family to perpetrate a new labour knows that its message of rejection Comparing Macron to Louis XIV from Morocco. Mounir Mahjoubi social coup.” legislation of the European Union has fallen on is wide off the mark. It is true that stemmed a vast cyber-attack, be- The forces would mean an stony ground. It remains a pro- the modern Parisian elite has the lieved to have originated in Russia, ranged against unprecedented test movement on the margins of size and density of the old royal against the En Marche! website dur- the president decentralisa- French political life but, if Macron court and that its outer moat is the ing the presidential campaign. in parliament tion of labour Boulevard Périphérique ring road The new minister of public affairs are meagre, relations to but the victory of this rookie poli- and public accounts, Gérald Dar- which feeds, enable companies to Relations with tician, however much he may manin is of mixed Algerian-Maltese in Mélenchon’s react more easily to belong to that elite, suggests background. Several new deputies mind, the hope economic fluctuations the Maghreb that Immobilisme is not neces- are of North African origin, all of that opposition to and give employers will not figure sarily inscribed in France’s which confirms that political inte- the labour laws will come more freedom to nego- DNA. gration in France is far from dead. from being opposed in tiate on working hours, among Macron’s The president’s visit to break the street. overtime and wages Francis Ghilès is an associate the Ramadan fast with the king of A note of caution is in with their employees immediate fellow at the Barcelona Centre for Morocco offered positive symbol- order because, for the first rather than comply with priorities. International Affairs.