LDP-EBD-RET1 Flintshire County Council Flintshire Retail Study Final Report Peter Brett Associates April 2019 Office Address: 61 Oxford Street, Manchester, M1 6EQ T: +44 (0)161 245 8900 E: [email protected] Document Control Sheet Project Name: Flintshire Retail Study Report Title: Final Report Project Ref: 44667 Name Position Signature Date Prepared by Bal Tiwana Principal Planner BT April 2019 Bernard Greep Director BG April 2019 Reviewed by Bernard Greep Director BG April 2019 Approved by Bernard Greep Director BG April 2019 For and on behalf of Peter Brett Associates LLP Peter Brett Associates LLP disclaims any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the scope of this report. This report has been prepared with reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms of the contract with the client and taking account of the manpower, resources, investigations and testing devoted to it by agreement with the client. This report has been prepared for the client and Peter Brett Associates LLP accepts no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties to whom this report or any part thereof is made known. Any such party relies upon the report at their own risk. © Peter Brett Associates LLP 2019 THIS REPORT IS FORMATTED FOR DOUBLE-SIDED PRINTING. ii Flintshire Retail Study Final Report CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................. 1 Purpose of the Study ...................................................................................................... 1 Structure of the Report .................................................................................................... 1 2 THE POLICY AND MARKET CONTEXT ....................................................................... 2 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 2 Policy Context ................................................................................................................. 2 Market Trends ................................................................................................................. 5 Policy Response ........................................................................................................... 12 Implications for Flintshire .............................................................................................. 16 3 TOWN CENTRE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS ........................................................... 17 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 17 Performance of Mold Town Centre ............................................................................... 18 Performance of Flint Town Centre ................................................................................ 22 Performance of Holywell Town Centre.......................................................................... 25 Performance of Buckley Town Centre .......................................................................... 30 Performance of Shotton Town Centre........................................................................... 32 Performance of Connah’s Quay District Centre ............................................................ 35 Performance of Queensferry District Centre ................................................................. 37 Performance of Saltney District Centre ......................................................................... 39 Performance of Broughton Shopping Park ................................................................... 40 4 CURRENT RETAIL AND LEISURE EXPENDITURE PATTERNS .............................. 43 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 43 Household Survey Methodology ................................................................................... 43 Composite Pattern of Spend on Comparison Goods .................................................... 45 Convenience Goods Spending Patterns in 2018 .......................................................... 52 Conclusions in Relation to Retail Spending Patterns .................................................... 56 5 ASSESSMENT OF RETAIL NEEDS ............................................................................ 58 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 58 Quantitative Assessment .............................................................................................. 58 Qualitative Assessment................................................................................................. 65 6 OVERALL SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 67 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 67 The Performance of Flintshire’s Centres....................................................................... 67 Retail Needs over the Study Period .............................................................................. 70 Monitoring and Review ................................................................................................. 71 April 2019 iii Flintshire Retail Study Final Report TABLES Table 3.1 TAN 4 Indicators of Vitality and Viability ................................................................. 17 Table 4.1 Postcode Sectors by Survey Zone ......................................................................... 43 Table 4.2 Composite Patterns of Comparison Goods Spend ................................................ 45 Table 4.3 Broad Destinations for Comparison Goods Expenditure ........................................ 46 Table 4.4 Comparison Goods Expenditure Retained Within the Study Area ......................... 47 Table 4.5 Main Destinations for Comparison Goods Expenditure Leakage ........................... 48 Table 4.6 Comparison Goods Centres/Retail Parks of Dominant and Subsidiary Influence .. 51 Table 4.7 Broad Destinations for Convenience Goods Expenditure ...................................... 53 Table 4.8 Main Destinations for Convenience Goods Expenditure Retained within the Study Area ........................................................................................................................................ 54 Table 4.9 Main Destinations for Convenience Goods Expenditure Leakage ......................... 54 Table 4.10 Localised Convenience Goods Retention Rates .................................................. 56 Table 5.1 Summary of ONS-Based Population Growth ......................................................... 58 Table 5.2 Convenience Retail Expenditure Growth Summary ............................................... 59 Table 5.3 Comparison Retail Expenditure Growth Summary ................................................. 60 Table 5.4 Summary of Expenditure Retention in Flintshire at 2018 ....................................... 60 Table 5.5 Retail Commitments ............................................................................................... 61 Table 5.6 Methodology for Convenience Retail Assessment ................................................. 62 Table 5.7: Summary Convenience Retail Floorspace Requirements ..................................... 63 Table 5.8 Methodology for Comparison Retail Assessment .................................................. 64 Table 5.9: Summary Comparison Retail Floorspace Requirements ...................................... 64 Table 6.1 Summary of Retail Floorspace Requirements (2018-2030) ................................... 70 FIGURES Figure 2.1 Trends in Retail Expenditure Growth 2008-2017 .................................................... 6 Figure 2.2 Example High Profile Retail Administrations Since 2010 ........................................ 7 Figure 2.3 Examples of Operators that have Announced Restructuring .................................. 7 Figure 2.4 Supermarkets’ sales as percentage of all retailers’ sales ....................................... 9 Figure 2.5 New forms of leisure development ........................................................................ 11 Figure 2.6 Growth of SFT retail sales ..................................................................................... 12 Figure 3.1 Town Centre Achieved Rents 2011-18 (£ per sq.ft) .............................................. 20 Figure 3.2 Town Centre Environment, Mold ........................................................................... 21 Figure 3.3 Town Centre Asking Rents 2011-18 (£ per sq.ft) .................................................. 24 Figure 3.4 Images of Flint ....................................................................................................... 25 Figure 3.5 Town Centre Achieved Rents 2011-18 (£ per sq.ft) .............................................. 28 Figure 3.6 Town Centre Environment, Holywell ..................................................................... 29 Figure 3.7 Town Centre Achieved Rents 2011-18 (£ per sq.ft) .............................................. 31 April 2019 iv Flintshire Retail Study Final Report Figure 3.8 Town Centre Environment, Buckley ...................................................................... 32 Figure 3.9 Town