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Barik Agarwal and Desai 2015 After the Dividend.Pdf NOTES transformation already under way is After the Dividend shifting the fundamental props of eld- Caring for a Greying India erly support. Income and Consumption Figure 2 (p 110), drawn from the research Debasis Barik, Tushar Agrawal, Sonalde Desai on the spread of income and consump- tion across the life cycle, documents two As in any other society, in India ational euphoria about reaping striking patterns (Lee and Mason 2011): too, the economic security of the demographic dividend has (1) In any country, the young and the old the aged is based on three main Nblinded us to an unfolding tend to consume more than they pro- drama—slow ageing of the Indian soci- duce; (2) when we compare across coun- sources: their own income ety. As we race towards a future in tries, although there are some differ- and savings, support from the which the elderly form a larger and ences between the rich and the poor extended family, particularly larger part of population distribution, countries in age-specifi c consumption children, and support from the India is experiencing transformation in and income patterns, the most striking its economic and social life. In this arti- divergence appears in consumption at state. As India moves rapidly cle, we take stock of some of these old age. towards a demographic future changes and identify policy challenges in which the elderly form a large lurking on the horizon. Comparison over the Life Course: In part of the population, this article In 1991, the Indian population com- the early phase of demographic transi- prised 57 million elderly; this has now tion, the aggregate economic life cycle is examines trends in each of the doubled to 104 million (Census of India dominated by the large life cycle defi cit three supports. While doing so it 2011). Much of this increase is due to (consumption minus production) of the identifi es the policy challenges overall population increase but fertility young. The net defi cit in early ages is and lists suggestions to deal decline has contributed to increase in mainly due to the cost related to bring- the proportion of the elderly from 6.6% ing up children, and investment on edu- with them. in 1991 to 8.6% in 2011 (Census of India cation and skill-building activities. This 2011). leads to a higher consumption in the The proportion of the aged, however, absence of any income during these in India is not uniform across states (Fig- days. Over the course of the demo- ure 1, p 109). States that have a longer graphic transition, the population’s age history of fertility decline have a higher and the life cycle defi cit of the old proportion of the elderly than those that become increasingly important. The def- show moderate to high fertility. icit in the later ages is associated with a According to Census 2011, the propor- higher consumption due to high treat- India Human Development Survey was funded by grants R01HD041455 and R01HD061048 tion of elderly in most states falls within ment cost of late life chronic morbidities from the US National Institutes of Health and a the range of 7% to 10%. Kerala, though, and lower productivity. supplementary grant from the Ford is at the high end. One in every eight Foundation. Data analysis was funded by the persons in Kerala is over 60 years. Other Comparison across Countries: Though UK government as part of its Knowledge states such as Tamil Nadu, Punjab and the life cycle levels of income differ sub- Partnership Programme. We gratefully acknowledge inputs from Reeve Vanneman Himachal Pradesh are headed Kerala’s stantially between the rich and the poor and Amaresh Dubey and participants in a way. Since the number of the elderly in nations, patterns seem similar. However, roundtable on “Caring for the Elderly in India: any society is dwarfed by that of children when it comes to consumption, a huge Challenges for a Society in Transition” at the until replacement level fertility is difference can be observed between the National Council of Applied Economic achieved, the former constitute a smaller rich countries like the US, Japan, Finland Research (New Delhi). proportion—about 7%—in high fertility and Sweden and the poor countries like Debasis Barik ([email protected]) and Tushar states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Mad- India, Indonesia, Philippines and Kenya Agrawal ([email protected]) are at the hya Pradesh. But as these states experi- (Figure 2). The increasingly higher con- National Council of Applied Economic Research, and Sonalde Desai (sonalde.desai@ ence fertility transition, they will also sumption level in the later ages in the gmail.com) is with the University of Maryland face the burden of an ageing population. rich countries occurs due to healthcare College Park and also Senior Fellow, National While the demographic scenario is costs and higher standard of living. The Council of Applied Economic Research, pro pel ling us towards an ageing popu- relatively low and downward sloping New Delhi. lation over the next 50 years, social consumption curve in the poor countries 108 JUNE 13, 2015 vol l no 24 EPW Economic & Political Weekly NOTES Figure 1: Proportion of Elderly Population (Aged 60 and Above) in India—2011 Indian economy since during this period various fl agship programmes like the Assam 6.7 Delhi Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Em- Jharkhand ployment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), Jammu and Kashmir National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), Bihar Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) and the Rajasthan Right to Education (RtE) Act were initi- Uttar Pradesh ated by the central government and Chhattisgarh many other programmes like the Madhya Pradesh National Old Age Pension Scheme were Gujarat West Bengal expanded substantially. India 8.6 The IHDS collects information on vari- Haryana ous factors related to the well-being of Uttarakhand the older population such as living Karnataka arrange ments, health conditions and Odisha healthcare expenditure, participation Andhra Pradesh in productive work (whether paid or Maharashtra unpaid), and their participation in gov- Himachal Pradesh Punjab ernment-sponsored pension programmes, Tamil Nadu etc. In addition, it is unique in that it Kerala 12.6 allows us to capture the intergenera- 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 tional transfers of income and assets Percentage of elderly population to total population among household members. Source: Authors’ calculations based on Census 2011 data. The second round of the survey has a refl ects the lower ability to pay, mainly Data sample of 21,922 elderly (aged 60 or due to informal nature of work and We document changes in elderly support above) out of which around 68% are absence of pension, lower accumulation structure using two rounds of the India from rural areas and 32% from urban of assets and negligible amount of sup- Human Development Survey (IHDS), areas. The round has around 4,000 port from the government. However, as conducted by the National Council of more elderly than in the previous round. health transition continues apace, the Applied Economic Research (NCAER), However, due to the ageing of the origi- expenditure during old ages is likely to New Delhi and the University of Mary- nal sample, the IHDS sample contains a increase for the poor countries as well. land. The fi rst round of the survey was slightly higher proportion of elderly Thus, we must plan for a slowly ageing conducted during 2004–05 and the sec- than the national census. For example, population where healthcare expendi- ond, during 2011–12. The IHDS is a multi- the percentage of elderly recorded in ture will inevitably rise with the growing topic panel survey enumerating more IHDS 2011–12 was 10.8%, which is about burden of non-communicable diseases than 2,00,000 individuals from about 2.2 percentage points higher than the (NCD) like cancer, diabetes and heart 42,000 households. It is a nationally rep- Census 2011 fi gures. conditions that require expensive labo- resentative survey, which covers 33 ratory testing, continued care and moni- states and union territories of India. The Economic Security toring and frequent hospitalisations. data collected through the survey Unlike developed countries, with the While this has been recognised in the appears to be of high quality and at par exception of formal sector workers, few policy discourse (Planning Commission with other national level surveys like the elderly see their later years as a time of 2011), little attention has been directed National Sample Survey (NSS) and the retirement that allows them time to at the fact that the source of income and National Family Health Survey (NFHS). enjoy leisure with family, friends and nature of fi nancial support for the eld- The period covering the two rounds of relatives. Given the nature of work, eld- erly are also changing. We consider the survey is an important phase of the erly people do during the early years of now the importance of the three pillars Table 1: Labour Force Participation Rate and Type of Activities (in %) among Men and Women Aged 60 of support for the elderly: own work and Above in India, 2004–12 Kind of Employment 2004–05 2011–12 and savings, help from extended family Rural Male Rural Female Urban Male Urban Female Rural Male Rural Female Urban Male Urban Female and support from the government. Salaried 3.00 0.70 8.60 2.30 2.80 0.80 8.90 2.90 Looking at the trends between 2004–05 Business 6.60 1.50 14.20 1.80 6.80 2.30 15.10 2.80 and 2011–12, we fi nd that each of these Cultivation 31.40 10.40 3.40 0.80 36.40 13.10 3.90 0.90 three pillars is undergoing substantial Farm labour 11.50 5.80 3.10 1.10 12.30 7.30 2.60 1.10 Non-farm labour 5.80 1.20 6.80 1.90 14.50 5.60 8.30 2.60 change and is likely to affect the well- Animal care 35.30 20.80 4.70 3.10 27.30 15.50 4.30 3.70 being of the coming generations of Doing any work 60.70 31.20 36.90 10.10 60.90 31.10 39.30 12.50 older Indians.
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