Optimal utilization of the water resources of the Euphrates River in Iraq
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Authors Al-Hadithi, Adai Hardan
Publisher The University of Arizona.
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Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/565439 OPTIMAL. UTILIZATION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OF THE EUPHRATES RIVER IN IRAQ
by
Adai Eardan Al-Hadithi
A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING MECHANICS
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY WITH A MAJOR IN CIVIL ENGINEERING
In the Graduate College
THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
1 9 7 9
Copyright 1979 Adai Harden Al-Hadithi THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE
I hereby recommend that this dissertation prepared under my direction hv Adai Hardan Al-Hadithi entitled Optimal utilization of the water resources
of the Euphrates River in Iraq be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement for the Degree
0f Doctor of Philosophy
i M n u n L 5 ^ 4 ______/ / / & / / 4 7 ? Dissertation Director 1 Date'
As members of the Final Examination Committee, we certify that we have read this dissertation and agree that it may be presented for final defense.
Date
Date
I m k / l - H - 7 ? ____ Date // - / ? - 7 ? Date
Date
Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent on the candidate's adequate performance and defense thereof at the final oral examination. \ lx
\
STATEMENT BY AUTHOR
This dissertation has been submitted in partial fulfillment of requirements for an advanced degree at The University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to bor rowers under rules of the Library.
Brief quotations from this dissertation are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgment of source is made. Requests for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the copyright holder.
SIGNED:
\ Dedicated to my family ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The writer wishes to express his sincere appreciation to his
advisor, Dr. Simon Ince, for his supervision and continued interest.
The writer also expresses his appreciation to the members of his committee,
Dr.Daniel D. Evans, Dr. Thomas Carmody, Dr. James K. DeCook, and
Dr. Emmett M. Laursen for their guidance throughout the course of this
study.
The author expresses gratitude, respect and thanks to the govern ment of Iraq for providing the opportunity and full support for obtaining
an advanced degree at the University of Arizona during the period 1974-
1979. The help of the Desert Development Commission and State Organiza
tion of Dams and Reservoirs, Ministry of Irrigation is also appreciated.
Finally, the author thanks his family in Iraq, particularly his
brother, Dr. Adnan Hardan, for his generous support and experienced
suggestions on the subject of the study. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF T A B L E S ...... viii
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . ’...... xii
ABSTRACT ...... • xiv
1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1
1.1 Contribution of Euphrates River to the History- of I r a q ...... 1 1.2 Euphrates R i v e r ...... 5 1.3 International Development of Euphrates River ..... 6 1.4 Developments on the Euphrates River in Iraq ..... 9 1.5 Dissertation Objectives ...... 12 1.6 The System Approach for Solving Water Resources Problems ...... 14
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ANDr METHODOLOGY ...... 16
2.1 Water Resources Systems ...... 16 2.2 Modeling of the Water Resources System ...... 21 2.3 System Analysis ...... 21 2.4 Optimization Methodology ...... 24 2.4.1 Linear Programming (L.P.) ...... 28 2.5 Economic Analysis of System Alternatives...... 32 2.5.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis ...... 34 2.5.2 Cos t~Ef feet iveness ...... 36 2.6 Methodology Used in the Dissertation ...... 39
3. NATURAL CONDITIONS OF EUPHRATES RIVER BASIN IN I R A Q ...... 41
3.1 Geography and Hydrography ...... 41 3.1.1 Geography in Iraq ...... 41 3.1.2 The Euphrates River B a s i n ...... 43 3.2 Flow Regime of Euphrates River ...... 45 3.2.1 Natural Flow of the Euphrates River .... 47 3.2.2 Water Level and Discharge at Full Natural Flow ...... 48 3.2^3 Sediment Runoff and Water Quality .... 54 3.3 Climate ...... 56
v vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS— Continued
Page
3.3.1 Air Temperature...... 56 3.3.2 Rainfall ...... 59 3.3.3 W i n d ...... 59 3.3.4 Air H u m i d i t y ...... 60 3.3.5 Evaporation ...... 60 3.4 Geology ...... ■...... 61 3.5 Hydrogeology and Groundwater A q u i f e r ...... 63 3.6 Hydrogeological and Soil Features of Irrigated Z o n e ...... 64
4. PROJECTS AND RESERVOIRS ON EUPHRATES RIVER IN TURKEY AND SYRIA ...... 66
4.1 Reservoirs at Turkey ...... 66 4.2 Reservoirs at Syria ...... 68 4.3 Irrigation Scheme Upstream from Iraq ...... 69
5. PRESENT UTILIZATION OF THE EUPHRATES IN I R A Q ...... 82
5.1 Land Resources and Agriculture of I r a q ...... 83 5.1.1 Economics of Present Agricultural Production ...... 86 5.2 Irrigation and Drainage Practice ...... 90 5.2.1 Irrigation System ...... 91 5.2.2 The Drainage System ...... 93 5.2.3 Irrigation Water Requirements ...... 95 5.2.4 Domestic and Industrial Water Use .... 100
6. WATER REQUIREMENTS AND ECONOMY OF THE EUPHRATES RIVER IN IRAQ IN THE YEAR 2000 103
6.1 Population Growth ...... 103 6.2 Food Requirement and Agriculture...... 104 6.3 Water Requirement ...... 106 6.3.1 Irrigation Water ...... 106 6.3.2 Improvement of the Existing Irrigation System ...... 109 6.3.3 Domestic Water Supply . 110 6.3.4 Industrial Water Supply .. . . '...... 110 6.4 Average Mean Annual Flow of Euphrates River to Iraq in the Year 2000 ...... Ill 6.5 Flow of Euphrates to Iraq in Dry Years ...... 115 6.6 Power Industry ...... 116 6.7 Fishery ^ 119 6.8 Flood Conditions of Euphrates Basin, Iraq ...... 121 vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS— Continued
Page
7. ANALYSIS OF THE ALTERNATIVE SYSTEM, AND OPTIMIZATION ...... 124
7.1 Components of Euphrates River Water Resources System in I r a q ...... 125 7.1.1 Euphrates R i v e r ...... 125 7.1.2 Habbaniya Reservoir ...... 125 7.1.3 Tharthar Reservoir ...... 129 7.1.4 Haditha Reservoir ...... 136 7.2 Alternative System . 153 7.3 Analysis of System Alternatives ...... 155 7.3.1 The Varied Cost-Effectiveness ...... 156 7.4 Optimal Utilization of Euphrates Water ...... 171
8. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ...... 176
APPENDIX A: LINEAR PROGRAMMING USED FOR CALCULATION OF THE OPTIMAL UTILIZATION OF EUPHRATES RIVER WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM IN I R A Q ...... 187
APPENDIX B: DEFINITION OF TERMS USED IN THE DISSERTATION . . . 197
APPENDIX C: CHARACTERISTICS OF HADITHA RESERVOIR...... 202
APPENDIX D: LAURSEN PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATING SEDIMENT DISCHARGE IN THE EUPHRATES RIVER ...... 213
APPENDIX E: NATURAL FLOW OF EUPHRATES RIVER IN IRAQ AT HIT AND PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS OF FLOODS AND DROUGHTS ...... ' ...... 224
APPENDIX F: IRRIGATION SCHEMES ON EUPHRATES BASIN IN IRAQ . . . 238
APPENDIX G : CULTIVATED AREA AND WATER REQUIREMENT IN IRAQ AT YEAR 2000 ACCORDING TO MINISTRY OF PLANNING D A T A ...... '. 242
APPENDIX H: POPULATION ON EUPHRATES BASIN IN IRAQ AS OF 1977 and FLOOD REQUIREMENT ...... 247
APPENDIX I: CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA OF I RAQ ...... 250
REFERENCES 256 LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1. The Euphrates River Basin Area Distribution ...... 44
2. Mean Annual Flow of the Euphrates River at Dam Sites and Intermediate Inflow „ ...... 49
3. Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Water Discharges (cumecs) and Seasonal Runoff (km^) of the Euphrates River at Hit, Tabqa, and K e b a n ...... 52
4. Data on Runoff and Its Annual Distribution in Typical Years Regarding Flow Regime for Main Gauge Station Sites in the Lower Reaches of the Euphrates River (m^/sec) .... 53
5. Annual Distribution of Suspended Sediment Load of the Euphrates River for the Year with Annual Flow Close to Its Mean Value (Million Tons) ...... 55
6. Annual and Mean Monthly Salinity of the Euphrates River Water at Falluja ...... 57
7. The Main Meteorological Stations on the Euphrates River Basin in Iraq ...... 58
8. Reservoirs on the Euphrates River in Turkey and Syria— from International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1975) ...... 67
9. Keban Project (Turkey) ...... 70
10. Karakaya Project (Turkey) ...... 71
11. Karababa Project (Turkey) ...... 72
12. Tabqa Reservoir ...... 73 3 13. Evaporation Rate (mm and m /s) for Reservoir Upstream from Iraq ...... 74
14. Estimated Current Irrigation Demands in Turkey and Syria— From International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1975) . It is Emphasized that the Figures Presented are Order of Magnitude Estimates Only ..... 78
viii ix
LIST OF TABLES— Coiitinued
Table Page
15. Estimated Additional Water Requirement for Irrigation in Turkey in the Year' 2000 ...... 79
16. Estimated Additional Water Requirement for Irrigation in Syria in the Year 2000 ...... 80
17. Total Additional Water Abstraction in Turkey and Syria from Euphrates in the Year 2000 81
18. Land Distribution and its Suitability for Cultivation— . in 1,000 Donums, According to Geographical Zones in Iraq ...... 85
19. Average Crop Yield in Iraq— in Kilograms/Donum ...... 87
20. Gross Crop Production in Iraq— in Thousand Tons ...... 88
21. Crop Production Economy in Iraq ...... 89
22. Net Irrigation and Gross Water Requirements for Crops on Euphrates Basin in I r a q ...... 98
23. Monthly and Annual Water Requirement for Agriculture (Average for 1968-1972) ...... 99
24. Monthly Water Utilization at the Present Time in the Euphrates Basin in Iraq— in Million m3 ...... 102
25. Suggested Consumption of Food per Capita and the Total Annual Food Required for the Population of the Euphrates Basin in Year 2000 ...... 107
26. Cultivated Area and Water Requirement on Euphrates Basin in Iraq Satisfactory for Food Production in the Year 2000 108
27. Mean Monthly Water Requirement in Year 2000 with Improved Irrigation System of 60% Irrigation Efficiency and 10% Increase in Crop Y i e l d ...... 112
28. Calculated Flow of Euphrates to Iraq in Year 2000 ..... 113
29. Average Natural Flow, Flow in 1978, Calculated Flow at Year 2000 of Euphrates in Iraq (m3/s) ...... 114 X
LIST OF TABLES— Continued Table Page
30. Water Requirement vs. Euphrates Flow in Iraq for Year 2000 ...... 117
31. Water Balance of Tharthar Reservoir for the Period from April 14, 1956 to January 31, 1972 ...... 133
32. Annual Guaranteed Water Yield of the Haditha-Habbaniyah Reservoir System, with NHWL for Haditha 143.0 m ...... 147
33. Costs and Benefits of Haditha Reservoir as Estimated •by Hydroproject (1975) Using Discount Rate of 5 Percent for 50 Years ...... 151
34. Benefits and Costs of Haditha Reservoir (Reviewed According to Changes of Assumptions) Using Discount of 5 Percent for 50 Y e a r s ...... 154
35. Matrix of System Capabilities versus Criteria ...... 166
C-l. Main Work Quantities .... 202
C-2. Principal Data of Haditha Reservoir ...... •...... 203
C-3. Lithological Description at Proposed Dam Site (From Top to B o t t o m ) ...... 207
D-l. Grain-Size Distribution of Bed Deposits of the Euphrates River at Haditha Project S i t e ...... 216
D-2. Average Grain Size Distribution of Sediment Runoff Samples Taken at Haditha Dam Site 1974, 1975, 1976 . . . 217
D-3. Sediment Discharges of Euphrates River at Iraq if Flood Similar to that of 1969 Occurred ...... 219
D-4. Calculated Monthly and Annual Sediment Discharge of Euphrates River at Haditha, Using Euphrates Average Flow to Iraq in Year 1978 ...... 220 3 E-l. Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Water Discharges (m /s) of the Euphrates River at Hit ...... 225
E-2. Recorded Annual Flood Data of Euphrates River at Hit - Iraq (1924-1972), Used in the Calculation of Extreme Floods by Gumbel Method ...... 228 xi
LIST OF TABLES— Continued
Table Page
E-3. Means and Standard Deviation of Reduced Extremes (Gumbel, 1 9 5 8 ) ...... 232
E-4. Mean Annual Flow of Euphrates River at Hit (1925-1972) Used in Calculation of Probability of Mean Annual F l o w ...... 233
E-5. Minimum Monthly Flows of Euphrates River at Hit and Their Return Period ...... 236
F-l. Present Irrigation Schemes on Euphrates Basin in Iraq .... 239
G-l. Planned Area under Irrigation for the Year 2000— in Thousand Donums ...... 242
G-2. Planned Annual Irrigated Area by Crops for the Euphrates Basin ...... 243
G-3. Planned Mean Monthly Water Requirement for Euphrates Basin in Iraq for the Year 2000 (According to Ministry of Planning Data) ...... 244
G-4. Alternatives of the Euphrates River Water Distribution between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq for the Year 1995 (According to SELK HOZPROMEXPORT, 1 9 7 5 ) ...... 245
G-5. Water Consumption and Water Disposal for Different Industries in the Euphrates Basin ...... 246'
H-l. Population on Euphrates Basin in Iraq as of 1977 247
H-2. Recommended Daily Dietary Allowances— from Wohl (1964) . . . 248
H-3. Content of Calories and Protein in F o o d ...... 249
1-1. Mean Monthly and Annual Wind Velocity ( m / s e c ) ...... 250
1-2. Minimum and Maximum Measured Air Temperatures (°C) ..... 251
1-3. Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Precipitation ( m m ) ...... 252
1-4. Mean Monthly and Annual Air Temperature ( C) . „ ...... 253
1-5. Mean ^Monthly and Annual Relative Humidity (% ) ...... 254
1-6. Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Values of Free-Water- Surface Evaporation (mm) ...... 255 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Figure Page
1. Ancient Euphrates River Course and Irrigation Canals ...... 3
2. Reservoirs on Euphrates River ...... 8
3. Euphrates River Near Haditha ...... 13
4.' General Map of Iraq ...... 42
5. Profile of the Euphrates River . 46
6. Annual Hydrograph of Euphrates River at Hit ...... 50
7. Schematic Diagram of the Irrigation System in Turkey and Syria ...... 76
8. Water Wheel Station at Haditha ...... 92
9. A Typical Field Irrigation Practice in Iraq 94
10. Unmaintained Drainage System ...... 96
11. Salinity Caused by Poor Drainage and Irrigation System . . . 97
12. Euphrates River Natural Average Flow versus Irrigation Requirement ...... 101
13. Population Growth in I r a q ...... 105
14. Euphrates River Flow at Year 2000 and Water Requirement . . . 118
15. Schematic Diagram of Euphrates River System in Iraq ..... 126
16. Habbaniyah Reservoir and Canals ...... 128
17. Habbaniyah Reservoir, Elevation-Area-Capacity Curve . . . . . 130
18. Abbu Dibbis Reservoir, Elevation-Area-Capacity Curve .... 131
19. Tharthar Reservoir,,Elevation-Area-Capacity Curve ...... 134
20. Tharthar Canal ...... 135
xii xiii
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS— Continued
Figure Page
21. Haditha Reservoir S i t e ...... 139
22. Karst near the Haditha Reservoir Area ...... 141
23. Euphrates River Flow at H i t ...... 178
24. Drought of Euphrates River During the Filling of Keban and Tabqa Reservoir 1974 ...... 179
D-l. Relation Curve of Sediment Discharge and Euphrates River Flow ...... 218
E-l. Gumbel Frequency Curve for Extreme Annual Flodds of Euphrates River at Hit 230
E-2. Frequency Curve of Mean Annual Flow of Euphrates River at Hit ...... 235
E-3. Frequency Curve of Minimum Mean Monthly Flow of Euphrates River at H i t ...... 237 / ABSTRACT
The water resources system of Euphrates River in Iraq is going through a critical stage because of the major developments of irrigation and power generation projects on the Euphrates in Turkey and Syria. The objective of the study is to find the near optimal utilization of the water resources of the Euphrates River within the new conditions of the river and according to the social and economic development in Iraq. In developing countries like Iraq, where social, economical and political conditions interact strongly with the development processes, there is no one specific method for optimizing the water resources systems affected by the above conditions. Thus, the optimization methodology used here is a combination of economic analysis, subjective analysis based on judgment, and mathematical modeling.
Steps used in the study are: collection and analysis of data of the water resources and agriculture in Turkey, Syria and Iraq for the past, present, and future; setting system alternatives which are capable of meeting the objective of the study; analyzing and selecting the best system; and optimizing the selected system.
Available data of water resources and agriculture in Iraq are either incomplete or inaccurate or conflicting. The data used in the analysis were selected based on both personal experience in the region and studies made by consultant firms. Three alternative systems of
Euphrates River water resources are compared: the existing system, or
xiv XV no action; the improved irrigation system; and the system of the Haditha reservoir.
The multipurpose Haditha reservoir is located on the Euphrates
River near the town of Haditha. Its main purpose is to regulate water for irrigation, to generate hydropower and to alleviate flooding.
Complicated geological conditions and uncertain sedimentation process are serious problems of the reservoir.
Although it is difficult to assign monetary value to benefits of water resources and agriculture in Iraq, benefit-cost ratio was the only criterion used by the consultant firms to evaluate the feasibility of the Haditha projects The methodology used in this dissertation is a modification of the standard cost-effectiveness method and is named the varied cost— effectiveness method. The modified method does not require fixing either the cost or the effectiveness of the alternatives for making the analysis. The method is very practical and applicable to the water resources system in Iraq. The analysis showed that the Haditha reservoir is not necessary for the optimal utilization of the water resources of the Euphrates River, and the alternative of the improved irrigation system is selected in order to achieve optimal utilization of the water resources in Iraq. A computer linear programming model is used to find the optimal utilization of the Euphrates River water, based on the allocation of irrigation water to the main crops such that it will yield maximum annual benefits from agriculture. The result ob tained by the model is that the cultivated area can be multiplied to three times as much in the present time and the benefit of one donum of the cultivated.area could be made 3.5 times as high as the present. CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
Planning for an optimal expansion and utilization of an existing water resources system is of continuing importance because of the rising
demand for and limited supply of water in many areas of the world. Plans
for the design and operation of water resource systems have been pre
pared and are being implemented in a number of countries of the world.
These plans do not necessarily include all aspects of water utilization.
Some aspects which are important for some countries are of no interest
to other countries, and, hence, each country requires its own plan for
the development of its water resources. The Euphrates River originates
in Turkey, and its flow to Iraq is controlled, to a large degree, by the
operation of reservoirs in Turkey and Syria. Thus, in planning the water
resource development in Iraq, the policy for utilization of the Euphrates
river water in Syria and Turkey must be known and considered in the
analysis.
1.1 Contribution of Euphrates River to the History of Iraq
The Euphrates and the Tigris rivers are the major water re
sources of Iraq and have played a big role in the existence of the
historic civilizations which were famous for having a flourishing agri
culture. Significant in this respect are the Sumerian, Akkadian,
1 Babylonian, and Assyrian cultures. The Semitic immigrants from the
Arabian desert established their settlements about the fourth millenium
B.C. or earlier, along the western banks of the Euphrates in Syria and
Iraq in the area of Hit-Haditha-Ana and Deir ez Zor. They began to dis cover means of conveying water to agricultural land by excavating long canals and constructing dams and reservoirs (Sousa, 1969). Iraq was, for centuries, a center of culture and world power, founded upon the effec tive utilization of the abundant soil and water resources of the valley of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which is known as the Mesopotamian
Plain. Fig. 1 shows the ancient Euphrates River course and irrigation canals.
The economic and social standards of the people of the Tigris and
Euphrates Valley have risen and fallen with the advance and decline of the agriculture based on irrigation. During the Abbasid Caliphate, there was another famous period in the agricultural development marked by a wide ex tension of irrigation and a high level of crop production (Buringh, 1960) .
With the fall of the great Abbasid dynasty to Hulaqu Khan in 1258 and
the deliberate destruction of the irrigation system by Timur in the fif
teenth century, Iraq was plunged from a standard of abundance to one of bare subsistence (Haigh, 1949). During the period of the Ottoman Empire,
the principal effort made to restore, in part, the irrigation system was
the construction of the Hindiyah Barrage on the Euphrates. Under the
British mandate (1917-1932), a program for the collection of basic data was initiated and more determined efforts to restoration were made under guidance of experienced and competent irrigation engineers. 3
W4" M5* 46*
BAGHDAD
KUT
HILLA ANSJENT EUPHRATES R5E. . [ 6HARAF RIVE,
NlPPti^ EKIOROMKAL R\\ER
THE 5UMER\AH VSHIHAFIYA
Ex i s t i n g E u p h r a t e s RIV£R
ARIDO •
5co le
Fig. 1 Ancient Euphrates River Course and Irrigation Canals. With the achievement of complete independence in 1932, Iraq initiated its own program of restoration and expansion of the irrigation system which was interrupted by the advent of World War II.
In 1927, Iraq started production of oil on a commercial scale, building its economy mainly on oil exportation. Recently, in early 1970, the government of Iraq put heavy emphasis on the planning and development of its natural resources, particularly on agriculture and water re sources. The successful process of nationalization of oil companies in
Iraq in 197 2 increased the country’s income tremendously and enabled it to plan and build different industrial and agricultural projects to enhance the individual and national economic and social life. Since the oil deposits, vast as they are, are decreasing and will be depleted in the future, the Iraqi government, in its national plan for the years
1976-1980, intended to reduce its dependence on oil for the development of economic and political activities, and placed great importance on the agricultural sector (Ministry of Planning, 1977).
The population of Iraq is increasing at an annual rate of approximately 3.5 percent, and in recent years the citizens’ standard of living has begun to improve as well. Consequently, demands on food and other commodities are increasing, and to satisfy future requirements, early planning of the natural resources, especially water resources, is very important. At the present time, the total available land and water resources may.not be the main cause for the shortage in irrigation water and in crop yield. Rather, the low efficiency in the scheduling and dis tribution of waterj the application of non-advanced irrigation system and the lack of advanced field practices are believed to be the main reasons for the shortages.
However, indications are that, in the near future, after in
creasing use of water in Turkey and Syria, water resources of the
Euphrates River basin in Iraq may be incapable of meeting the water re
quirement for the different consumers. Among these requirements are domestic and potable water supply, irrigation water requirement, indus
trial use of water, power generation, fishery, and navigation.
Millions of cubic meters of water which are wasted by evaporation
from large water surfaces, flood flows to the ocean, unproductive canal
and farm seepage losses or poor utilization by municipalities and in
dustry could be saved by efficient water management.
1.2 Euphrates River
The Euphrates River rises in the mountains of Turkey, where it
collects nearly 70 percent of its mean annual runoff, and by the time it
enters Syria it has 84 percent of the total flow. In Syria, it receives
13 percent of its flow from tributaries, and then crosses into Iraq, where it receives the remaining 3 percent of its runoff. The mean annual 3 natural flow of the river at Hit is about 30 km (931 cumecs).
Until 1974, the main water consumption in the Euphrates basin was
concentrated in the lower reaches of the river in Iraq. Regarding the
irrigation water, Turkey is the smallest user of the Euphrates River, as
agriculture is limited to summer crops which are watered by the secondary
tributaries of the river. The gross annual amount of water used in Turkey at the present time is estimated at 1.5 km , which irrigates about
150.000 hectares. 3 Syria utilizes about 4 km of the Euphrates River water for agriculture through pumping stations along the river and irrigates about
220.000 hectares.
The total area in the Euphrates basin in Iraq presently under ir rigation is estimated at 1,546,000 hectares, and it uses an average of 3 16 km of water annually (Ministry of Planning, 1978).
1.3 International Development of Euphrates River
In desert regions like Iraq and Syria water is the determinant factor of life and its availability is very important at times when nature cannot supply enough water for the users. The Euphrates River, like any river, on the one hand supplies the water for irrigation and domestic use, while on the other hand, its peak discharges flood the surrounding fields. Finding a vast and cheap source of energy is essential for de velopment. Hydropower is generally the cheapest method to produce
electricity; thus, Turkey and Syria build their dams on the Euphrates mainly for power generation with irrigation considered only as a side bene fit, For Iraq, at present an oil-rich country,energy is economically produced
from oil, and the main consumer of the water is agriculture. In the low
flow period, the river runoff does not meet the requirement of agriculture and searching for another source of water is necessary. The traditional world-wide way of supplying deficit water during shortage periods is to build a reservoir to store the excess water during the high flow period and release it.when it is required. Similarly, Iraq decided to build a reservoir on the Euphrates River, near Haditha.
In 1973, the simultaneous filling commenced of the Reban Hydro electric Dam in Turkey and the Tabqa Dam in Syria, which resulted in a decrease in Euphrates flow to Iraq and caused a serious shortage in ir rigation water in Iraq for 1974 and 1975. Within the next decade,
Turkey plans to complete the hydroelectric installation at Keban and to construct and operate major storage reservoirs at the Karakaya, Golki, and Karababa sites; Syria has completed the hydroelectric installation at Tabqa; and both Turkey and Syria plan to expand their irrigation projects. Iraq started the construction of a major multipurpose storage reservoir on Euphrates at Haditha (see Fig. 2).
The total capacity of the storage of the reservoirs upstream from 3 3 Iraq will be 67.8 km , 41.6 km of which will be the total live storage.
(Hydroproject, 1975).
The completed and planned system of reservoirs in Turkey and
Syria will have both favorable and unfavorable effects on the Euphrates
River runoff regime. It will smooth the natural seasonal flow variation, resulting in an increase of the discharge in summer when the water de mand for irrigation is highest; it will also increase the overall runoff volume in dry years and decrease the frequency of floods in Iraq. On the other hand, it will increase the irrevocable water consumption and evaporation losses from the reservoir after completion of upstream pro jects. According to the Va11en~Byggnads-Byran (VBB) data (1964), there 3 will be more than 10 km losses of the Euphrates River flow to Iraq.
The losses are the result of increased consumptive use and evaporation. 8
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T u R K E y Xarakoya reserve GCLG: KARABAaK AtSLRVOlK T/GJtiS R iv e *
7SAABLU
6o/;Ah river M05UW ex rA£?/> X,v£A RlSERVOH "T) DtKEIiOR \e / / \ r' EUPHRATES TAARTHAA •• 's RIV bR RLMVClty / r~ SAMHAA* / / HAD'THA =esexvoih
"'T \, ^A8 6*N.V4W KUTBA RtiERvoiK *
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S'AM4«V*
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Fig. 2 Reservoirs on Euphrates River. After all developments in Turkey and Syria are completed * Iraq will 3 receive an average of about 16.6 km per year, which is the present usage.
1.4 Developments on the Euphrates River in Iraq
At the present time, there is only one regulating reservoir on
the Euphrates River in Iraq. It is the Habbaniyah Lake with a live 3 storage of 2.76 km , and it has to regulate the river flow modified by the upstream projects in Turkey and Syria to satisfy the irrigation re quirement and to provide flood protection for areas downstream of
Ramadi City. In the past, the Habbaniyah Depression, as it was called
then, was used only for flood water storage during large floods. In
1941 it was equipped with inlet and outlet regulators to make it also usable for regulating the river flow (Sousa, 1944).
There is no international agreement between the riparian countries (Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) up to the date of the writing of
this dissertation. Knowing that the design and actual operation regime of the Tabqa and Keban reservoirs will be to meet the projected water requirements for power and irrigation in Turkey and Syria, and will not necessarily correspond to the interests of Iraq, the Iraqi government seriously considered the construction of a dam on the Euphrates River in Iraq near Haditha. In Summer 1979 the construction of the coffer dam and excavation for the hydropower station was started.
In 1961, a Russian consulting group was commissioned to study
the possibility of increasing the seasonal and multi-annual regulation by adding a second reservoir on the Euphrates River near Haditha. The .10 proposed multipurpose Haditha reservoir will regulate the Euphrates
River runoff to meet the demand of irrigation, electric power generation, and to alleviate flooding. It will release the Habbaniyah reservoir from the flood control function, which will increase its efficiency for irrigation purposes (Swiss Consultant, 1968).
The engineering-geological-topographical features and problems of the Haditha project area are rather complex. Gypsiferous rocks, extensive karst, high percentage of clay galls (lenses) in the lime- stones immediately at the foundation of the concrete structures compli cate the construction of the proposed project, necessitate special en gineering facilities to improve the stability and safety of the structures and to reduce the seepage flow routes, thus increasing the cost of construction. The ground surface of the reservoir area is almost flat, making the surface area of the reservoir very large and the depth low, which will cause a tremendous amount of water loss from evaporation.
Trapping of the sediments by Haditha reservoir will change the balance of sediment discharge in the Euphrates River downstream of the dam, i.e., reduce the sediment-water discharge ratio. This will result in the degradation of the downstream reach of the river, change the . river width, depth, and affect the activities and properties on the river banks. '
Construction of the Haditha reservoir will result in the separa tion of a part of spawning areas of migrant fish, because the dam structure design does not include fish-passing facilities. 11
From the point of view of socio-economic effect, the Haditha reservoir will flood approximately 2,800 households containing 25,400 persons, who are to be relocated. The total cost of restoration of the farming affected by the reservoir, and of the relocation of the popula tion is estimated at 24.0 million Iraqi dinars (I.D) equivalent to
81.1 million U.S. dollars. The total cost of the Haditha project is estimated to be 237.0 million I.D. (Hydroproject, 1977).
Taking into account all the above conditions. Hydroproject found the construction of the Haditha reservoir to be technically and economically feasible, with a benefit cost ratio of 1.4.
In addition to the Habbaniyah and Haditha reservoirs, the 3 Tharthar reservoir has a large storage capacity of 85.4 km . The
Tharthar reservoir receives its waters from the Tigris River, through a channel constructed mainly to protect the city of Baghdad and the sur rounding vast agricultural lands from floods. The quality of water in the Tharthar reservoir is poor due to the high salinity resulted from dissolved gypsum soil and evaporation.
In 1976, the Iraqi government completed the Tharthar-Euphrates canal which transfers water from the Tharthar reservoir to the Euphrates
River. In late 1977, work started on the construction of the Tharthar-
Tigris canal to discharge water from the Tharthar reservoir back to the
Tigris River. The immediate purpose of the Tharthar-Euphrates and
Tigris canals is to reduce the salinity of the Tharthar lake, as well as for flood control measures. In the future, after improving its water quality, the Tharthar reservoir will be effective in flood control and 12 irrigation in the lower Euphrates and Tigris rivers. Fig. 3 shows photo of Euphrates River near Haditha.
1.5 Dissertation Objectives
The main objective of the dissertation is to present a study and analysis for finding the near optimal utilization of the water resources of the Euphrates River in Iraq to satisfy the water demands for agriculture, domestic, and industry, and provide flood protection. To accomplish the main objective, the dissertation has the following subobjectives:
1. Present up-to-date data of the Euphrates River basin water
resources, identify the water demands for agriculture, domestic use
and industry at the present time and in the future, and point
out the existing problem of water utilization in Iraq.
2. Analyze and evaluate the following alternative systems:
A. The Euphrates River, proposed Haditha, Habbaniyah, and
Tharthar reservoirs system with improved irrigation system.
B. The Euphrates River, Habbaniyah, and Tharthar reservoirs
system with improved irrigation system.
C. The existing system of Euphrates, Habbaniyah and Tharthar
with the traditional irrigation methods.
3. Make a project evaluation based on benefit-cost and/or cost-
effectiveness method and judgment. And select the optimal
system for the best utilization and allocation of the water re
sources of the Euphrates River basin in Iraq. 13
Fig. 3. Euphrates River near Haditha. 14
1,6 The System Approach for Solving Water Resources Problems
For a plan to be really comprehensive and practical, it should
aim at the optimum development of all resources of a river basin, includ
ing land, water, and other natural resources. In recent years, water
resources agencies in advanced countries have sought to cope more
successfully with large complex problems in the area of water resources by system analysis (O'Laoghaire and Himmelblau, 1974).
The elements of the system in water resources are rivers, dams,
source of water, canals, lands,and users of water. System analysis helps to make rational decisions insofar as possible as to the optimal
design, selection, or operation of a physical system. It should be
emphasized, however, that system analysis cannot replace experts in the
appropriate disciplines, but it is an effective means to help the policy makers or decision makers.
System analysis is used both in planning and operation of water
resource projects. Planning for the unified development of a river basin
consists of the collection of data, followed by a series of decisions
and selecting from all possible alternatives that particular set of
actions which best accomplish the overall objectives of the decision makers (Hall and Dracup, 1970).
Operation of a water resources system, on the other hand, is
concerned with what decisions are necessary to best accomplish the
objective of an existing system. However, the planning for the expan
sion of an existing system definitely must encompass the hypothesized
future operation of the system. 15
The dissertation addresses itself mainly to the planning aspect of the optimal utilization of the water resources of the Euphrates River in Iraq. CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW AND METHODOLOGY
Although optimization of water resources systems is considered a new technique, considerable studies and methodologies have been published, particularly in the United States of America. Most of the developed models deal with operation of reservoir systems.
As related to this dissertation, the optimization of the
Euphrates water resource system is mainly dependent on the distribution of the available water and land resources among the consumers and its efficient utilization. To select the proper methodology for the analysis of the water resource systems, it is helpful to review some of the studies and ideas which are related to the subject, so one is exposed to the ideas and experience of other analysts and decision makers.
2.1 Water Resources Systems '
Water resources systems in many aspects defy rational descrip tion and include many points of view. . These include physical, socio logical, biological, economic, political, legal, geological, and agricultural considerations. A major role of a water resources system is as a catalyst for economic development when a geographic area has all other resources such as soil, climate, geographical location, and people, as well as the necessary institutional setups available.
16 Water resources development is seldom undertaken for the present
Water resources development is almost always for the future. A review
of the time tables of water resources projects shows that 50 years or more may elapse between the conception of a need and the full utiliza
tion of the system. Present day large-scale development systems will
require 10 years or more as a construction period, with an even higher
figure for very large interregional or international projects and plans (Hall and Dracup, 1970). The Euphrates water system is being subjected to an intensive development in Iraq, Turkey and Syria and
according to the plans the date of completion of such main projects is
expected to be in the year 2000.
To provide for full water resources utilization, good comprehend
sive planning and total water management is needed. In this context,
the National Water Commission in the United States recommended that:
1. Water use and land use planning should be very closely
coordinated.
2. Water supplies should be conserved.
3. Sound economic principles should be the key to the project
evaluation,
4. Development and management of water supplies should take place
at the lowest capable level of government (State of Washington
Water Research Center, 1973).
Water problems have different aspects. They could be distri
butional in some areas and times; that is, while storage may be adequate
the annual, or more often the seasonal, daily, or hourly peak demands
exceed the capacity of the distribution system (i.e., pumps and lines). 18
On the other hand, they could be of a shortage nature. Russell, Arey and Kates (1971) stated that it is important to study the shortage which arises from a lack of water to distribute rather than those resulting from inability to distribute available water in conformance with the pattern of peak demands. Actually, it is important to study both the shortage and the distribution nature of the problem.
The proper course of action in the case of a water resource management problem will not be revealed without a consideration of the possible choices (McKean, 1978). As an example, studies of flood prob lems have revealed a substantial number of both structural and nonstruc- tural measures for reducing flood damage. Municipal water demands often can be met from a variety of sources, such as rivers and wells; electric power can be generated from fossil fuels and nuclear energy as well as from falling water. Total costs and total benefits for each of such a variety of alternatives may differ and, of equal significance, the distribution of benefits and costs among individuals may vary widely
(Davis, 1968). In addition to the costs and benefits, the effective ness and environmental and social impact are different for each system.
In recognition of the complexity of a large water project, the need to integrate the operation of various facilities using a system approach is highly desirable. Operating a large water project as a complete system requires a second knowledge of the interaction among project features (Faults, Hancock and Logan, 1976).
A typical water management situation involves a large number of variables. Our knowledge of physical, biological, economic, and social i phenomena is imperfect, and the technology of water management is 19 changing continuously. Some benefits and costs cannot be measured with reasonable precision and some benefits and damages cannot be evaluated in monetary terms. All these factors make the planning and decision of water resources systems complicated. We must recognize that there is a serious need to simplify the complicated nature of the water resource problem. By doing this, engineers can be more influential and better policy makers (Gaum, 1977).
Control of water resources using a set of well-defined rules to reduce the impact of drought and cost of operation grows in importance as demands increase relative to available resources, and as systems to meet these demands become more complex and interrelated (Edwards and
Johnson,,1978).
Water resources problems could be either manmade or natural.
Future water shortages may be exacerbated by climatic change, but, unfortunately, the climatologist's current forecast ability is in sufficient to aid the wateir resource planner or hydrologic designer.
To be useful to water resource planning, climatic change forecasts would need to be specific by area and be accurate over the 58-to-100 year design life of the water resource system. There is no evidence that such a forecast ability either exists or will appear within the immediate future (National Academy of Sciences, 19.77) . Thus, planners and designers of water systems depend on the available data of his torical records.
Conflicts in system design are the rule rather than the exception. For most resource development programs, particularly those 20 characterized by multiple-purpose use, it is virtually impossible to
imagine that all the participants, all the vested economic and social interest groups, all the impacted public and private agencies will have the same perception of objectives, benefits, and costs for the system
(Dorfman', 1962) .
Two basic elements for making good decisions about any system are information on the project status and control of the system. It is a fact that good river basin management is an honest personal determina tion to make do with whatever project facilities are available and important to the operations. Relative importance of facilities and personal sublimation go hand in hand whenever there is an honest attempt to do a good job. Developing an identity with the project is essential when resolving conflicts among the project operation objectives (Faults and Hancock, 1974). This is important in the planning of projects in the developing countries as here, in most cases, the planners disregard the local conditions and available facilities to accomplish the project.
The communication, interaction and understanding between the planners and the political agencies is very important in making the correct decision. We might equip planning engineers with proper tech nical and institutional capability to carry on the reconnaissance of alternatives and to follow through to a refined set of choices, but the entire exercise would be pointless if the political process, which planners count on to provide the criteria for resolving small issues and to make choices on large issues, were not accessible and functioning.
The water resource system of the Euphrates River in Iraq is a real example 21 that includes all the above-mentioned features 9 as will be seen in the next chapters.
2.2 Modeling of the Water Resources System
Models or idealized representations are common to everyday life.
Mathematical models consist of mathematical symbols and relationships that state a theory or hypothesis (Meta System Inc., 1971). Vansteenkiste
(1976) states that the validity of water resources modeling is mostly blurred by the low quality of experimental data, much more than by the in completeness of the equations involved. However, if the missing equation represents an important parameter in the system, then its influence on the validity of the model will be very high.
Models may be classified as follows:
Type of Model Example
Iconic Architect's model of house, engineering drawing, maps.
Analog Network flow analyzer using electricity as an analog for water, gas, etc.
Symbolic Mathematical equations, mathematical programming, digital simulation.
In the analysis of a particular water resources system, any of the types of the models shown above may be used. After the invention of high speed computers for solving mathematical equations, most of the analysis moved toward the use of mathematical models.
2.3 System Analysis
A system may be defined as a set of objects which interact in a regular, interdependent manner (Hall and Dracup, 1970), or a system can 22
be defined as a collection of components, connected by some type of
interaction or interrelationship, which collectively responds to some
stimulus or demand and fulfills some specific purpose or function
(Meredith et al., 1973). The system approach is comprehensive, inter
disciplinary, future and design oriented, sensitive to the inherent
complexity of problems, simultaneously qualitative and quantitative, and
is oriented toward practice (Quade et al., 1978).
Hufschmidt and Fiering (1966) had put the system components,
parameters, and constants in two classes: (1) design variables, which we are free to change from one simulation run to the next; and
(2) invariant physical functions, parameters, and constants of the water resource system under study.
In general, the design variables are of three .types:
1. Physical facilities — sizes of storage reservoir, hydropower
plants, water and sewage treatment plants, levees, navigation
works, recreation facilities at reservoirs, and area of irrigated
land.
2. System outputs — demands or targets (with associated distribu
tion within the year) for electric energy, irrigation water,
industrial and domestic water supply, levels of water quality,
and recreational opportunities.
3. Operating policy parameters — allocation of reservoir space for
dead storage (to collect sediment or to provide minimum power
head), flood control storage, storage for recreational purposes,
and rules for storing, releasing, and routing water through the system, including conjunctive operation of surface and ground
water reservoirs.
The invariant physical functions, parameters, and constants reflect physical relationships among elements in the system. Some im portant examples are functions relating: 1) Elevation and reservoir area reservoir storage; 2) reservoir storage loss to reservoir area;
3) conversion factors and turbine and generator efficiency factors that translate units of water flow and head into units of electic energy; 4) flood routing parameters and constants, which account for travel time of flood waves and the natural storage capacity of stream reaches; and 5) parameters that define the rate of return flow from irrigation areas.
There is no general agreement as to what constitutes a standard or even an appropriate way to conduct a system analysis. Nevertheless, there are a number of frequently employed activities and processes, rang ing from the use of judgment and intuition to well-established algorithms
There are in many nations traditions of analysis as an aid to decision-making but these traditions are by no means identical. The stage of development differs widely in different countries, as does procedure and purpose. There are three aspects of the practice of system analysis: 1) the subjective art of system analysis; 2) the methodology derived largely from dec is ion-making experience and prac tice, and increasingly from decision-making theory; and 3) the specific techniques used, whether based on economical, such as benefit-cost ratio, or based on political and social, or using mathematical models.
In this dissertation, the three aspects are used interactively. 24
Russell et al. (1971) analyzed the water resources system as a relation between potential demand and supply and they related the level of adjustment of a water system directly to probability statements about the likelihood of climatic events of varying levels of severity. They mentioned that drought may be caused by climatologic factors and may be man-made. Thus, a storage is usually required to assure the desired safe yield. It is, however, important to bear in mind that the safe yield thus arrived at for a given stream and a given storage is "safe" only to the extent that we consider the chosen probability level of assurance safe. There is no absolute safety here; the safe yield is not a minimum flow for the stream.
Maass (1962, p. 2) had suggested the following steps for a system design: "Identifying the objective of design; translating these objectives into design criteria; using the criteria to devise plans for
the development of the specific water resources system that fulfill the criteria in the highest degree; and evaluating the consequence of the plans that have been developed."
2.4 Optimization Methodology
During the last decade, one of the most important advances made
in the field of water resources is the adoption of optimization tech niques for planning, design, and management of complex water resources
systems. Once the objectives have been determined, and the mathematical model has been formulated, the problem lends itself to solution tech
niques developed in the field of operation research. 25
Many successful applications of mathematical programming tech niques are made in water resource systems for both planning and
operational purposes. There exist no general algorithms and the choice of method depends on the mathematics of the system, on the availability of data, and on the objective specified. It should be noted that mathematical models and system analysis are only an aid to decision making. The decision-making process in real life is different and
can’t be accurately modeled.
Haimes and Hall (1975) defined optimization techniques as
solution strategies that are applied to the mathematical model defined by an objective function and a set of constraints. The procedure of selecting that set of decision variables (also known as manipulated variables) which maximizes the objective function (also known as per formance function or index of performance) subject to the system’s constraints is called* optimization. The widely used optimization
techniques are: 1) simulation; 2) linear programming; 3) nonlinear programming (dynamic programming and analytical solution). Other methods, such as game theory, network theory, chance constraint pro
gramming, decomposition and multilevel optimization contributed < theoretically to the field of optimization.
Simulation models developed for solution on digital computers have proved to be very effective tools for estimating the future hydrological and economical performance of any proposed surface-water management policy (Biswas, 1976).
While simulation models are effective methods for evaluating alternative configurations of reservoir and hydroelectric power plant 26 capacities, water-use allocation targets, operation policies, and the like, they are not a very effective means for choosing or defining the best combination of capacities.
The simulation operations involve the equivalent of many thousands of equations, but the number has to be reduced drastically to use mathematical methods in optimization (Maass, 1962). For this purpose, optimization models have proven to be effective, if not for finding the best solution, at least for eliminating from further consideration the worst solution.
Nonlinear programming has not enjoyed the popularity that linear programming has in water resources system analysis. This is partially due to the fact that the mathematics involved in the nonlinear models is much more complicated than in the linear case. Nonlinear problems can be solved analytically or by using dynamic programming. Dynamic programming has been used to study several types of water resources systems, particularly in modeling reservoir operation. As a procedure, dynamic programming is rather simple from the computational point of view
(Buras, 1972). It can handle some difficulties such as the stochastic nature of river flow, the nonlinearity of the objective function, and time effects. The difficulty associated with the dynamic programming is the problem of dimensionality, especially when dealing with a multi- state variable problem.
Whatever the form, of the decision model and the technique used, only approximately optimal policies can be obtained, since almost always, approximation of one sort or another must be made to facilitate practical solutions. All solution techniques being developed for operational use 27 will yield similar answers. The differences between them are in speed of convergence, computational requirements9 the need for initial feasible policy, and the convenience of applications. Common problems related to nonlinearities in constraints and/or objective function, and the high dimensionality is typical of the water system optimization problem.
As related to the Euphrates water resource system in Iraq, the main consumer of water is agriculture. Techniques used in irrigation are simple and there are no detailed data about the parameters and I variables involved in the process of irrigation and crop yield. Almost the same conditions exist over the Euphrates basin and the change of irrigation-crop production process in space and time is very small, if it exists. Thus, we can assume that the relation between the area of the cultivated land and water requirement is linear, and the relation between the crop yield and area of irrigated land is linear also. In other words, the crop production is a linear function of water supply.
The flow of the Euphrates to Iraq will be highly controlled by the dams in Turkey and Syria. Seasonal water requirements in Syria and
Iraq have the same trend. Thus, we can assume that the quantity of water used for irrigation in Iraq is linearly related to the releases from Syria since there are no other constrains (i.e., the monthly flow of the Euphrates to Iraq).
Due to the above-mentioned conditions, the linear programming methodology is used in optimizing the utilization of Euphrates water resource in Iraq. 28
2.4.1 Linear Programming (L.P.)
Linear programming has been one of the most widely used tech niques in water resources management. It is concerned with solving a special type of problem, one in which all relations among the variables are linear in time and space, both in the constraints and in the function to be optimized.
The application of linear programming in water resources management varies from relatively simple problems of straightforward allocation to complex situations of operation and management. In studying large-scale systems with technological, societal, and environ mental aspects, the efforts in the modeling, as well as in the optimization
(solution of the system model), are magnified and often overwhelm the analysis (Haimes, 1977) . The above complexity has often been resolved by gross simplifications of the system models by such means as linear ization to allow the use of linear programming and the simplex method.
Taha (1971, p. 13) states that the linear programming problem
"calls for optimizing (maximizing or minimizing) a linear function of variables, called the ’objective function1, subject to a set of linear equalities and/or inequalities, called constraints or restrictions."
Deininger (1969) presents a discussion of general linear programming for hyrologic analysis, while Chow and Meredith (1969) review pro gramming techniques for water resources systems analysis. Hillier and
Lieberman (1967) view the problem as a means of deciding how to allocate some limited resources among competing activities so that it is done in an optimal manner. 29
The L.P. problem may generally be stated as. follows: n min Z = Z c.x. 3=1 2 3
subject to n a. .X. /Lb., 1=1, 2, ..., m jfi ^ 3 - x
aij 5 an^ Cj are known constants and X_. are non-negative variables to be determined.
A typical linear programming model is (vector notation):
Min CTX
Set AX N b (1)
X A 0 (2) consisting of n variables and m constraints other than the constraints
(2), so that A is an m x n matrix.
An upper bound on the corner feasible solutions is given by
(m + n) ! m. !n ! which can be a very large number for even moderate values of m and n.
Computer codes are necessary for solution, but these are widely available.
The constraints set (1) may be converted to the form
AX = b by the addition of slack variables wherever a relationship is an inequality. The matrix A would then be of dimension mx(n + m ) , if there had been m inequalities. With the problem in equality form, a corner feasible solution is termed a basic feasible solution, its component and m such are said to constitute a basis. There are m basic variables and up to n non-basic variables.
If B designates the basis at any stage, and R the remainder of
A, the LP can be written as
Min Z - % + % (3)
Set + :« = b v".
h ’ \ = = °
Premultiplying (4) by B ^
Xb + B"1RXR = B_1b (5)
Setting = 0 yields one solution (not necessarily optimal):
h - B " i b so that
Z = CgXg = CgB 1b = rxb (6)
-1 where n = n B . Note that D
3— z = . i, i = 11, 2,0 ..., m. d
The TT_ are called ^shadow prices" since they indicate how the value of an objective function will change with a change of value of a
"resource," b. 31 Substituting the value of from (5) into (3) and decomposing the submatrix, R , into its column vectors,
> ^29 •••
zr < \ - Ri > \ + (cr2 - e2)xr2 + + n b
The quantities C_. - R _. = C . are called the relative cost coefficients and it is clear that the criterion of optimality is that all C ^ 0. .
The simple procedure of LP search for this condition. Of course, if the objective function is to be maximized, the criterion is all C. / 0. J " It can be shown that every LP has a dual program, the former then being called the primal program. Specifically, if the primal has the form
Min Z = CX '
AX A b
x A o
The corresponding dual is
MAX W = bTy
ATy Z CT
Y ~ 0
It can also be shown that when the optimal is reached: 32
Min Z = Max W = yb
The similarity with (6) is not accidental. The dual variables are the primal shadow prices.
The significance of the dual is computational. If, for the primal, m»n, the use of the dual is highly advantageous, since m and n 3 are then interchanged and computational time varies roughly as m and linearly or loss with n. In addition, for some LP codes, memory core requirements may be decreased.
Appendix A shows a computer program which is used in.solving the linear programming problem for the optimization of the Euphrates River water resources system. The program is obtained from the Library of the University of Arizona Computer Center.
2.5 Economic Analysis of System Alternatives
0 fLaoghaire and Himmelblau (1974, p. xi) state "Whenever in vestment in a water resource project is under consideration, important questions such as what is the optimal scale of development of the pro ject (s) , what is the economic value of the project(s), and when should the project(s) be constructed need to be answered. It is only through - the use of an analytical economic evaluation that the competitive uses for capital can be quantitatively evaluated
In the field of water resources management, intangibles and multiple decision criteria exist as a result of multipurpose needs. The usual approach to solve the problem is based on benefit-cost analysis
(Ragade, Hipel and Unny, 1976) . Benefits and costs properly measured are useful in the planning and justification of water resources systems. 33
Benefits reflect society's willingness to pay for the products of a
system and thus are measures of the system social value (Davis, 1968).
Cost may be characterized as a consumption of physical resources,
employment of human resources (labor), and the dissipation of time. In
the cost-benefit analysis, one should consider the time lag between the
input and the output and its influence on the cost and benefit pre
diction.
Water resources economics does not follow the general theory of demand applied to other products. In economic theory, the concept of demand for a particular commodity is the schedule of quantities of the commodity consumers are willing to purchase at various prices. Econo mists have indicated on several occasions concern about "use" and "need" when referring to withdrawal or intake of water as natural resources
(Thompson and Young, 1973).
The term water requirement or water use has been historically associated with water development planning and do not carry any precise or rigorous connotation of quantitative measurement of water withdrawal
in relation to price. This is particularly true in Iraq, where there is no price for water. The use of the term water demand as opposed to water requirement carries with it the implication that the impact of price on the amount of water being withdrawn has explicitly been taken
into consideration and that the amount being withdrawn is the smallest
amount needed for whatever purpose to minimize cost to the withdrawal.
This may be true if the withdrawer is an individual consumer. If, as a matter of policy, prices of public supplies are increased to agricultural 34 and industrial products, there is no guarantee that they will, in fact, use less water but in times of inflation may simply pass the increased costs on to the purchasers of their products and ultimately to the consumer.
2.5.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis
English (1968) said, "The emphases on cost benefit analysis focused attention on methods for evaluating projects individually rather than on comparison of alternatives for accomplishing a given objective,” This is a rule which must not necessarily be followed always, because we can consider project alternatives as if they are individual projects with different costs and benefits and select the alternatives of highest benefit-cost ratio.
Grant. Ireson and Leavenworth (1976) thinks that the attempt to phrase decision criteria in terms of benefit and cost in the economic evaluation of all government projects has occasionally been an obstacle to sound thinking.
Conceptually, matters are more complicated in evaluating pro posed public work projects than in evaluating similar projects in private enterprise.
Prest and Purvey (1965, p. 7 ) give a short, reasonable definition of benefit-cost analysis: "It is a practical way of assessing the desirability of projects where it is important to take a long view v (in the sense of looking at repercussions in the future, as well as the near future) and a wide view (in the sense of allowing for side effects of many kinds on many persons, industries, regions, etc.).11 35
Benefit-cost analysis generally requires calculation of present worth or equivalent uniform annual money amounts, and that such evalua tion need to be preceded by the choice of a minimum attractive rate of return. v It is a deficiency of the benefit-cost ratio as a scheme of project evaluation that legislators, administrative officials, often have the view that the higher ratio the better the project and vice versa. The same proposed project may have several different values of the benefit-cost ratio depending on whether certain adverse items are subtracted from benefits or added to costs. The difference between the cost and benefit (benefit-cost) is unaffected by the decision as to whether an item is classified as a disbenefit or cost, and hence the difference is safer than the ratio (Grant et al., 1976).
Another important factor in the decision taken in economic analysis is the time period over which the various factors are evaluated.
Short-run consequences might be given more weight in the decisions as compared to the long-run effects or vice versa.
White, Agee and Case (1977) suggest the following benefit-cost analysis approach:
1. Define the set of feasible, mutually exclusive, public sector
alternatives to be compared.
2. Define the planning horizon to be used in the benefit-cost
study.
3. Develop the cost-saving and benefit-disbenefit profile in
monetary terms for each alternative.
4. Specify the interest rate to be used. 36
5. Specify the measure of merit or effectiveness to be used.
6. Compare alternatives using the measure of merit or effectiveness.
7. Perform supplementary analysis.
8. Select the preferred alternative.
When benefits of alternative systems cannot be predicted and evaluated in terms of money figures, which is the case in a large number of water resources projects, the effectiveness of the system can be used (instead of the benefit) for the evaluation measurement and the
cost-effectiveness approach is used in the analysis.
2.5.2 Cost-Effectiveness
Cost-effectiveness is a very old discipline. Basically, it is nothing more than engineering economics (English, 1968). Cost- effectiveness has been focused both on the analysis of the system, as if
it were already designed, and on the costs of producing and operating it.
Cost, according to Webster Dictionary is the amount paid or given
for anything . . . hence whatever, as labor, self-denial, etc., is re
quest to secure a benefit.
Effectiveness, in contrast to cost, connotes the desirable
effect or benefits gained by reason of the expenditures or incurring of
a cost. In other words, costs are always trade-offs for expected
greater benefits. Effectiveness also connotes some measure of perform ance or level of output of the benefits producing systems.
Cost-effectiveness in its modern application is concerned with
the evaluation of a system worth (utility). System worth may be con veniently subdivided into three major components: 37
1. System performance (performance effectiveness).
2. Time (time effectiveness).
3. Money (monetary effectiveness) as a common measure of
resources.
Before one can compare alternative systems, he must establish some measure for determining their worth. This is the first require ment of a cost-effectiveness analysis. A measure of system worth
(effectiveness) is probably the most difficult aspect of the cost- effectiveness .
To make a decision, first we need to evaluate the worth of benefits received for the resources used. Often, however, analytical methods fail or are deficient. Then we have to fall back on experience, judgment, intuition, or individual set of values.
Cost-effectiveness analysis is concerned with choosing^from a set of alternatives. This is always the case in any economic analysis.
Resources are always limited. Therefore, one must expend them in the best way to achieve them. It is the principle of scarcity, which is probably the most central concept in economics. If ever there should be a surplus which exceeds the needs, the resource is free. As a conse quence, it may be omitted from any further economic consideration; thus, an economic analysis is concerned with the best allocation between competing objectives.
One of the advantages of cost-effectiveness is that it does not necessarily require an evaluation of every economic factor in monetary units. The word effectiveness conveys specific information in water 38 resources development whereas many economic and social effects can or cannot be quantified.
One of the significant studies in cost-effectiveness analysis has been done by Kazanowski (1968). Kazanowski had extracted general ities and guides from numerous evaluations and made his standardized approach to the cost-effectiveness evaluation as follows:
1. Define the desired goals, objectives, missions, or purposes that
the systems are to meet or fulfill.
2. Identify the mission requirements essential for the attainment
of the desired goals.
3. Develop alternative system concepts for accomplishing the
mission.
4. Establish system evaluation criteria (measures) that relate
system capabilities to the mission requirements.
5. Select fixed-cost or fixed-effectiveness approach.
6. Determine capabilities of the alternative systems in terms of
evaluation criteria.
7. Generate system versus criteria arrays.
8. Analyze merits of alternative systems.
9. Perform sensitivity analysis.
10. Document the rationale, assumptions, and analyses underlying
the previous nine steps.
The selection of appropriate and adequate criteria is based on judgment augmented by experience. The omission of significant criteria could readily invalidate the results of an evaluation. 39
2.6 Methodology Used in the Dissertation
To use the system approach for analysis and optimization of water resource systems, for practical planning and operation, we should
consider the technical possibilities, economic situation, social and political policy, and system parameters and related resources and activities for both the present and the future. The following steps are used in the optimizing procedure for the Euphrates River water resources in Iraq:
1. Collection, investigation, and analysis of the available in
formation related to the water and land resources and their
utilization in the country for agriculture production, domestic
and industry.
2. Determination and estimation of all existing and future water
consumers and water users and assessment of their water require
ments on the basis of the latest and best information available.
Where there is not sufficient information or where there are dis
crepancies in the data, the most reasonable data are used.
3. Description of feasible system alternatives for the optimal use
' of the Euphrates River water resources for irrigation, domestic,
industry, and power generation.
4. Economical evaluation of the system alternatives and cost-
benefit and cost-effectivenss analyses, and selection of the
best system based on the analysis and personal judgment.
5. Modeling the selected system alternative, defining the system
input and output variables, and the constraints and the objective
function. Optimization of the objective function > using linear pro gramming . A computer program is used for best allocation of the available water resources to the different users to give the maximum benefit for the country. CHAPTER 3
NATURAL CONDITIONS OF EUPHRATES RIVER
BASIN IN IRAQ
To do full justice to the description of the natural conditions in the Euphrates River Basin even on the basis of the existing information should require hundreds of pages; a complete and detailed description has to await future investigations. However, to set the background for the dissertation, a brief description is presented in this chapter. i
3.1 Geography and Hydrography
3.1.1 Geography of Iraq
The Republic of Iraq is situated in the central part of the
Middle East between latitudes 28° 591 to 37° 20'N and between longitudes
38°40T to 46°40TE. It borders Turkey, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait (Fig. 4). In the southeast, Iraq has an outlet to the Arab 2 Gulf. The land area of the country is 434,000 km .
Iraq is mainly a flat country. The central part of the country is occupied by the vast Mesopotamian plain bounded in the west and south by desert plateaus with elevations of 200-700 m above sea level, and in the north and east by the range of folded mountains of Zagros and East
Tauras with heights of up to 3,000-4,000 m above sea level. The southern part of the country is flat with elevations of 20 m to 1 m above sea level.
41 Fig. 4 General Map of Iraq. 3.1.2 The Euphrates River Basin
2 The total area of the Euphrates River Basin is 444,000 km .
It may be divided into three parts: Upper, Middle, and Lower (Table1).
The upper part of the basin situated on the territory of Turkey is a mountain region with heights of up to 2,500-3,000 m above sea level.
This part of the basin is the main region where the Euphrates River flow is formed; it has a fairly well-developed hydrographic network. The average annual precipitation is 850 mm.
The middle part of the basin located in the territory of Syria represents an undulating plateau into which the Euphrates River valley is cut to a depth of about 5 0 ,m. A hydrographic network of this part of the basin comprises the Euphrates River tributaries: the Sadjur,
Balikh, and Khabur rivers, as well as a great number of dry channels
(wadis).
The lower and the biggest part of the basin is located in Iraq.
The hydrographic network of this part is represented mainly by ephemeral streams (wadis), the flow of which is observed mainly after heavy rains.
A minor part of the basin is located in Saudi Arabia.
The width of the Euphrates River valley in the northern part of
Iraq varies from 1 to 4 km and in the region of Haditha the valley narrows to 0.5 to 1.0 km (Ministry of Irrigation, 1975).
The river enters the Mesopotamian plains south of the town of
Hit, where the river valley widens and the river channel is leveed to protect floodplain lands from flooding. Table 1. The Euphrates River Basin Area Distribution.
Area Watershed Area*
(km2) (km2)
Turkey 125,000 125,000
Syria 76,000 26,000
Iraq 177,000 0
Saudi Arabia 66,000 0
Total 444,000 151,000
*The watershed area is that part of the river basin area which contributes to the flow of the river. 45
Natural depressions Habbaniyah and Abu-Dibis located to the southeast of the Ramadi Area are used for flood water accumulation and regulation of part of the Euphrates River runoff.
3.2 Flow Regime of Euphrates River
The Euphrates River starts at the confluence of the Murat and
Karasu rivers in Turkey, 10 km north of the town of Keban. These rivers originate in the Armenian uplands at an altitude of over 3,000 m. The
Murat River is 650 km long and the Karasu River is 470 km long. The
Euphrates flows mainly in a southeasterly direction through the terri tories of Turkey, Syria, and Iraq. The Euphrates and the Tigris Rivers join downstream of the town of El-Qurna to form the Shatt-al-Arab River, which flows for 195 km before discharging into the Arabian Gulf. The length of the Euphrates from Keban to El-Qurna is 2,210 km. The change in elevation of the river from the Syrian border to the confluence of the Tigris, a distance of 1,005 km, is 163 m.e (Fig. 5), or an average slope of 0.016% (Ministry of Economics and Communications, 1955).
Three important tributaries join the Euphrates on the desert plateau in Syria. They are the Sadjur River (watershed area 2,350 km^), 2 2 the Balikh River (14,400 k m ) , and the Khabur River (36,900 km ). The
Sadjur enters the Euphrates above the Tabqa dam and the other two enter below. No sizable rivers enter the Euphrates in Iraq.
The historical average flow of the Euphrates at the town of Hit 3 is 931 cumecs (m /sec) , the maximum recorded flow at Hit was 7,390 cumecs on May 13, 1969, and the minimum recorded flow at Hit was 50 cumecs in
July, 1974 during the period of the filling of Keban and Tabqa reservoirs, and 65 cumecs on September 6 , 1961. Z m 8450
800 KEBAN PROJECT
700
KARAKAYA PROJECT 6 0 0
n GOLKOY PROJECT 500 - r | KARABABA PROJECT vertical I ’• 2 , 0 0 0 4 0 0 JERABLUS horizontal 11 5,000,000
300 TABQA PROJECT
DEIR EZ ZOR 200 143.0 HADITHA PROJECT
100 =) SHATT AL ARAB o ARAB GULF 0.00 0 526 707 931 1121 1375 1498 2220 2415 DISTANCE FROM CONFLUENCE OF MURAT AND KARASU RIVERS IN KM. 4> O' Fifi. Profile of the Euphrates River. 47
The river width at Haditha varies from 200 to 1,100 m. The depth ranges from 2 to 10 m or more. Velocities vary from 0.2 to 3.0 m/sec. 2 The watershed area above Haditha is 234,600 km . Near the town 'of Hit,
80 km below Haditha, the river enters the Mesopotamian Plain, the main agricultural area. At Hit, the river varies in width from 150 to 500 m, the depth from 2 to 10 m, and the flow veolocity from 0.5 to 1.5 m/sec.
Downstream of Kifl (near Babylon), the river divides into two channels from which the water supply for the largest rice region in Iraq is provided. In the southern part of Iraq, the river flows through a des ert plain, its channel being slightly incised into alluvial deposits.
The width of the main Euphrates River channel in its southern part varies from 120-200 m. The height of its banks above the mean low- water level is 5.5 to 3.0 m and the average stream gradient is small, about 0.002 percent to 0.003 percent. At the lowest part of the
Euphrates River, flood water overflows the banks of the river channel and its arms and floods the adjoining country.
3.2.1 Natural Flow of the Euphrates River
Before the dams were built on the Euphrates, the stage and dis
charge measurements of the river were begun as early as 1925 at Jerablus,
Syria; and 1924 at Hit in Iraq by the Iraqi Ministry of Irrigation.
Systematic records exist for 43 years at Keban, 21 years at Tabqa and
55 years at Hit. The data for Keban were taken from a report by EBASCO
Services 1964 (Hydroproject, 1971). The source of data for
Tabqa was the Iraqi Ministry of Irrigation. Flows at Haditha were cal culated by The Hydroproject Institute, based primarily on the flow at 48
Hit. Fluctuations of the river flow made with the help of mass curves has shown that the period of 50 years of natural flow is quite sufficient
for evaluating the flow regime of the river (Ministry of Irrigation,
1975; Wilson, 1969).
Table 2 shows the mean annual flow of the river at Keban,
Tabqa, Haditha, and Hit before the dams were constructed. Also shown
in the table are the watershed areas and intermediate flows between dam sites before dam construction.
3.2.2 Water Level and Discharge at Full Natural Flow
The Euphrates River flow is formed mainly by snow-melt in the mountainous area of its basin which usually occurs during the period
from March to July and by rains, which usually fall during the period
from November through May, The groundwater contribution is small
compared to the rain and snow-melt sources.
The river annual flow cycle may be divided into three periods:
1. Floods, from March through July due to snow-melt in the mountains
of Turkey.
2. Summer low-water period, from August through October.
3. Rain period, from November through February.
About 70% of the annual flow passes in the Euphrates (above Hit) during
floods, about 10% during the low-water period, and about 20% during the
rainy period (Fig. 6). The highest water level recorded at Hit was in
1969, the lowest in 1930, with a total range of 3.9 m.
The maximum water discharges of the Euphrates River are observed
usually during the flood period (second half of April, first half of May). Table 2. Mean Annual Flow of the Euphrates River at Dam Sites and Intermediate Inflow.
Length Mean of the Watershed Annual Euphrates Area Flow Site (km)* . (sq. km) (cumecs)
Keban 10 64,100 634
Keban-Tabqa Stretch 700 56,000 279
Tabqa 710 120,700 913
Tabqa-Haditha Stretch 746.0 109,300
Haditha 1,456 230,000 18
Haditha-Hit Stretch 112.0 34,100
Hit 1,568 264,100 931
*The length of the Euphrates River is measured from the confluence of the Murat and Karasu rivers in Turkey. RIVER FLOW m 3/s 0 0 0 6 2000 0 0 400 0 0 0 8 i. Ana Hdorp f uhae Rvra Hit.at River Euphrates of Hydrograph Annual 6 Fig. A A / MONTH Average flow Flood year Dry year
o v> 51
They are caused by snow melting in the mountainous part of the basin k which is often concurrent with rainfall. The flood peaks continue,
usually, for 1 to 2 days.
The Euphrates River runoff at Hit over the 50-year period of 3 record (1924-1972) varied from 10.5 km in the lowest water year 1929/30 3 to 63.8 km in the highest water year 1968/69, with the average annual 3 flow at about 30.0 km (Appendix E). The monthly distribution of the
natural runoff of ^ the Euphrates River (70% of the annual runoff volumes
passes during the flood period) does not coincide with the schedule of
irrigation water consumption. The diversion of water for irrigation in
Iraq during 50 years with the Habbaniyah reservoir operating was 3 approximately,13.15 km , and during some water years it went down to 3 10 km . Tables 3 and 4 show mean monthly flow of the Euphrates River
at Hit, Tabqa, Keban and at the lower reach of the river in Iraq. The
decrease of the Euphrates River annual runoff between Hit and Hindiyah in 3 years with low-water is 8 to 10 km and in high-water years (1968-1969) 3 27 km , mainly due to diversion of Euphrates water to Habbaniyah and
Abu Dibbis reservoirs. The decrease of the annual runoff at the reach 3 3 from Hindiyah to Shinafiyah ranges from 1.3 km (1960-1961) to 10.8 km
(1968-1969) due to withdrawal of water for irrigation. At the river
reach from Shinafiyah to Nasiriyah an increase of annual runoff, or 3 approximately 1.0 to 1.5 km occurs due to water inflow through tail
escapes of Hillah-Diwaniyah Canal. In the years of high-water 3 (1968-1969) the runoff increase reached 5.3 km and in the low-water 3 year (1960-1961) it reached 1.0 km . Table 3. Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Water Discharges^(cumecs) and Seasonal Runoff (km ) of the Euphrates River , at Hit, Tabqa, and Keban.
Month Hit Tabqa Keban
Jan 702 642 289 Feb 795 770 368 Mar 1,136 1,219 709 Apr 2,157 2,540 1,978 May 2,446 2,416 1,793 Jun 1,272 1,062 792 Jul 567 476 362 Aug 331 310 246 Sep 282 278 217 Oct 333 318 249 Nov 452 398 302 Dec 596 530 303
Annual 931 913 634
Seasonal Runoff (km3)
Nov-Feb 6.62 6.09 3.35 Mar-Jul 20.20 20.40 14.89 Aug-Oct 2.54 2.45 1.88
Total 29.36 28.94 20.12 Table 4. Data on Runoff and Its Annual Distribution in Typical Years Regarding Flow Regime for Main Gauge Station Sites in the Lower Reaches of the Euphrates River (m3/sec).
Average for Year Years, Typical Q W Period of Regarding River/Site Observation Water Regime Oct Nov Dec Jan Teh Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep (m'Vsnc) (krn^)
Euphrates 1930-1971 Average for the River, period 190 224 340 468 528 754 1424 1758 941 384 228 187 619 19.5 Hindiyah High water (1969) 381 339 895 1168 1212 1206 2257 2711 1645 803 664 606 1157 36.4 D.S. Average (1965) 135 99 284 308 279 453 1176 1554 739 343 280 205 448 15.3 Low water (1961) 160 146 128 286 325 213 304 824 246 104 75 65 239 7.5
Euphrates 1954-1971 Average for the River, period 158 164 263 443 461 606 877 1210 848 307 155 227 ■ 473 14,9 Shinatiyah High water (1969) 245 226 722 964 1113 1024 1354 1586 1306 549 318 284 808 25.6 Average (1965) 86 58 184 234 227 321 746 1129 683 221 137 88 343 10 8 Low water (1961) 112 96 83 226 307 ,201 240 740 230 63 34 31 197 6.2
Euphrates 1930-1971 Average for the River, period 174 208 273 370 429 537 821 1178 1047 353 159 145 475 15.0 Nasi riyah High water (1969) 372 361 762 1004 1425 1312 1430 1853 1674 721 .448 411 981 30.9 Average (1965) 171 163 240 223 314 270 779 1098 834 250 144 104 383 12.0 Low water (1961) 198 207 216 267 303 255 254 567 241 92 65 76 228 7.2
in co 54
3.2.3 Sediment Runoff arid Water Quality
The Euphrates River is characterized by relatively high water sediment load. The average sediment load of the Euphrates River at Hit 3 is about 2 kg/m . The highest degree of sediment load is observed dur ing the period of spring floods and autumn rain floods, when the sediment 3 load reaches 10 kg/m . The lowest degree of turbidity is observed during the low-water period (August-October) and it ranges from .1 to
.5 kg/m3 .
As an example, the total annual suspended sediment runoff at
Hit during water year 1955-1956 was equal to 52.5 and 56.9 million tons as measured and computed by the Directorate General of Irrigation in
Iraq (D.G.).
Table 5 shows the mean annual suspended sediments discharge as calculated by the Hydroproject (1971) on the basis of data collected near Deir-ez-Zor in Syria was 55.0 million tons in 1970.
Downstream from Ramadi along the Euphrates River;, the turbidity of water is decreasing due to the settlement of suspended particles in Habbaniyah reservoir. Average turbidity of the river water in 3 Nasiriyah is about 0.8 kg/m .
According to the degree of the river water mineralization, the
Euphrates River is classified as hydrocarbonate-calcium type, with average total dissolved salt (TDS) in the range of 200 to 500 mg/1, and according to data observed at Hit and Fallujah the average TDS is
400 mg/1.
Further downstream, the TDS in the river water increases due to the discharge of drainage water into the river. Table 5. Annual Distribution of Suspended Sediment Load of the Euphrates River for the Year with Annual Flow Close to Its Mean Value (Million Tons).
Hit Shinafiyah Nasiriyah
Month: Oct 0.94 0.81 0.16 Nov 0.88 0.80 0.21 Dec 0.33 0.47 0.07 Jan 4.07 0.65 0.09 Feb 2.64 0.82 0.10 Mar 5,39 5.59 1.98 Apr 22.40 5.66 5.10 . May 15.70 2,46 1.50 Jun 1.76 1.23 0.96 Jul 0.55 2.09 1.26 Aug 0.22 0.50 0.11 Sep 0.06 0.34 0.06
Annual Suspended Sediment (million tons) 55.00 20.50 10.70
Estimated Bed load Runoff (million Tons) 5.5 1.0 0.5
Total 60.5 21.5 11.2
River Average Suspended Sediment (kg/sec) 1750 641 338
Average Concentration (kg/m) 2.00 1.19 0.82 56
Mean monthly salinity of the Euphrates River is presented in
Table 6.
3,3 Climate
The climate of the Euphrates and Tigris river basins is mainly
continental and subtropical and it changes according to geography. In
the mountain part of the basins, located mainly on the territory of
Turkey, the climate is continental with dry, hot summers and moist, cold winters. The climate of the foothill plateaus and plain part of the j basin is continental, subtropical with hot, dry summers and cool winters. The variety in climate is noticeable during the winter period
of the year, essentially regarding the distribution of precipitation and
the change of air temperature regime. The climate of the basin in Iraq
is represented by data observed in 7 stations. They are: Rutba,
Haditha, Habbaniyah, Baghdad, Diwaniyah, Nasiriyah, and Basra. The
location of these stations and the main climatological data observed
are shown in Table 7.
3.3.1 Air Temperature
The mean annual air temperature of the basin varies from
4-15.O^C in the northern mountain part to 4-24°C in the middle and southern
parts. The highest temperature in the year occurs during the month of
July with the mean temperature for the whole basin fluctuating between
30 and 35°C, while the absolute maximum is between 50 and 55°C. The
lowest temperatures occur during the month of January with mean temper
atures in the basin from 2°C in the north to 12°C in the south, and an Table 6 . Annual and Mean Monthly Salinity of the Euphrates River Water at Fallaja.
Mean Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1959 (630) (640) (560) (370) (400) (460) (710) (900) (930) (780) (690) (720) 650 1960 (490) (580) (440) (310) (310) (440) (620) (780) (830) (720) (650) (680) 570 1961 (620) (590) (640) (410) (440) (640) (910) (1200) (1200) (930) (700) (490) 730 1962 (540) (470) (410) (360) (400) (500) (780) (1020) (1000) (830) (770) (620) 640 1963 (500) (420) (410) (320) (250) (310) (480) (670) (750) (640) (560) (620) 495 1964 (680) (640) (440) (320) (390) (450) (700) (1000) (980) (780) (740) (580) 640 1965 (640) (500) (440) (340) (340) (440) (630) (820) (880) (680) (620) (560) 575 1966 (130) (340) (400) (340) 279 350 (580) (740) (780) 570 570 420 485 1967 287 427 294 252 (250) (340) 406 (620) (680) (560) 343 343 440 1968 331 331 328 328 (260) 363 (480) (630) (650) 619 (540) (390) 440 1969 329 (380) 312 (250) 280 (330) 487 (600) (620) (560) 541 (540) 440 1970 (510) (470) 465 (330) 450 455 (740) (900) (870) 798 684 620 610 1971 54 4 729 589 396 340 414 500 (740) (740) (630) 609 630 580 1972 582 692 591 446 292 367 520 776 969 (730) 613 574 600 1973 575 546 618 433 322 392 613 962 1210 873 700 588 660
Mean 125 520 460 350 335 420 610 825 875 715 620 560 568
In ^1
o 58
Table 7. The Main Meteorological Stations on the Euphrates River Basin in Iraq.
Coordinates Period of Observation North East Elevation Other Station Latitude Longitude (m) Precipitation Elements*
Haditha 34°04' 42°21’ 140.0 1937 1972
Habbaniyah 33°02' 43°34' 43.6 1941 1931 o Baghdad 33°20' 44°24' 34.1 1888 1937 Diwaniyah 31059' 44°59' 20.4 1941 1939 Nasiriya 3i°or 46°14' 3.0 1941 1940 Basra 30°34' 47°47’ 2.4 1900 1937 *Other Elements: ,Air temperature Humidity Atmospheric pressure Wind velocity Evaporation Cloudiness 59 absolute minimum of -14°C to -24°C. Monthly temperatures are presented in Appendix I. 3.3.2 Rainfall The mean annual precipitation in the basin decreases from north to south and from the east to the west. In the mountain regions in the north part of the basin, the annual precipitation ranges from 800 to 1,000 mm; on the plain in the south the annual rainfall decreases to 100 to 150 mm or less in dry years. The distribution of precipitation within the year, averaged over the period of observation, is given in Appendix I. \ The characteristic feature of the basin is the complete absence of precipitation during the summer season which lasts two months (July - August) in the northern part of the basin to four months (middle of May to middle of September) in the southern part of the basin. Snow falls only on the mountain regions in the north part of the basin. In the north and central part of the Euphrates River basin in Iraq, most of the wheat and barley are cultivated on rain-fed areas. The yield is proportional to the amount and distribution of rain. In some dry years, for some parts of the basin, the yield is zero. 3.3.3 Wind Over major parts of the Euphrates River basin, the prevailing winds in all seasons are of northwestern direction, the frequency of which approximates 40%. The total frequency of northern, northwestern, and western winds is close to 70%. 60 In the south of Iraq during the spring period, a southwestern wind is frequent. The wind blows from the deserts and often is accompanied by severe dust storms. According to the data of the Baghdad meteorological station, the number of days with dust storms averages 20 per year (from 6 to 63 days). Mean annual wind velocity is not high and averages 2 to 3.5 m/sec. The highest mean monthly wind velocities are recorded in the warm period of the year (June-July). The maximum wind velocity observed in Baghdad was 38.6 m/sec. The wind velocity observation stations are shown in Appendix I. 3.3.4 Air Humidity Mean annual absolute air humidity in the foothills and plains of the Euphrates River basin is low and is around 9.3 to 11.2 mb. The annual variations of the absolute humidity is similar to the air temper ature variations with the maximum in the summer period (10-14 mb) and the minimum in winter (8-9 mb). The annual relative humidity decreases from 50-55% in the moun tain regions to 40-45% on the plain and gradually rises again in the direction of the Arab Gulf up to 60% in Basrah, south of Iraq. The relative air humidity has a severe annual variation with maximum in winter (65-80%) and minimum in summer (20-30%). The ob served values of Air Humidity are shown in Appendix I, 3.3.5 Evaporation High air temperature, low humidity, and rather strong winds on the Euphrates River basin in Iraq cause substantial evaporation from 61 water surfaces, land, and plants. Complete evaporation measurements are not available, but periodical measurements in some location do exist. The evaporation calculated from the data obtained from Class "A" U.S. Weather Bureau evaporation pans using an empirical factor of 0.75 is shown in Appendix I. 3.4 Geology The geology of the Euphrates River basin is characterized by red-colored formations in the north and west part of the basin; these formations are mainly limestone, sandstone, conglomerate, and shales. It also comprises various lightly colored limestones.widely spread in the desert. The thickness of the deposits is over 350 m. and is re ferred to as the Eocene. Oligocene deposits in the folded region of Iraq are formed mostly of brecci-like limestones, conglomerates, shales, and sandstones. Near the town of Haditha they represent light, soft marl limestones and in the southern regions on the Euphrates River right bank there are found marbled varieties, which by age, as it is supposed, are transitive to the Lower Miocene. The Euphrates rock series is the most ancient of the Miocene age; it is common on the Euphrates River right bank and Haditha- Hit strip and consists of limestones differing in color, density and structure, rather frequently karst and sometimes bituminous. Thickness of the Lower Miocene deposits are approximately 200 m in the north and 100 m in the south of the country (Zubair Area) on the borders with Saudi Arabia. The Middle Miocene (lower Ears) is predominantly developed 62 in Jazira plain to the west of the Ramadi-Mosul line. Over the Euphrates Limestone concordantly lies a stratum of alternating layers of clay, marl, limestone, and gypsum. Presence of sulphur and bitumen is characteristic for the stratum. Gypsum content generally increases to the top of the profile. This gypsum layer is the source of salinity 'in the Tharthar reservoir. Terrigenous formations are typical for the series lower part. Common thickness of the lower Ears series varies from 300 to 600 m. The upper Ears (Upper Miocene) deposits occupy vast areas to the east of the wadi Tharthar and they are frequently found on the Euphrates River right bank. By the rock composition the series predominantly terrigenous are formed by clays, oblique laminated sandstones, agrillites and siltstones alternating vertically and horizontally. Thickness of layer is from 2 - 3 to 10 - 15 m. Concurrent with this, the upper Ears stratum comprises thin gypsum bands and conglomerate lenses. Total thickness of the stratum increases from several meters in the south of Mesopotamia to 700-1,200 m in the foothill area. Alluvium of low terraces and the Mesopotamian plain itself in terms of lithology can be divided mainly in two layers: the first one composed of loam and loamy sand, and the second one composed of sand and gravel. This is the characteristic of the Tigris and Euphrates River valley stretches, as well as for the part of the Mesopotamian plain located to the north of the Baghdad-Hillah-Fallujah lines. Total thick ness is 5 to 10 m in the upper reaches to 15 to 30 at Fallujah. 63 Alluvial deposits (together with irrigation deposits) in the Euphrates-Tigris interfluve are represented by stratum of evenly alter nating loams, loamy sand, sands, and clays. 3.5 Hydrogeology and Groundwater Aquifer Groundwater characteristics are not well known in Iraq. A few studies were carried out by foreign companies, but they were not based on enough data; new hydrogeologic investigations are underway to give a clear idea of groundwater potential. From the existing reports, and from personal experience, the groundwater situation can be briefly explained as follows. Aquifers in the Mesozoic deposits exist in the western desert near the town of Rutba. In this area, rock outcrops ap pear on the surface. The recharge source is the precipitation and the discharge region is the Euphrates River right bank. Depth to ground water exceeds 200 m and salinity ranges from 1 to 3.0 g/1, mostly calcium sulphate. Yield is 3 to 6 1/sec. The most promising aquifer for the western plateau area is the Paleocene-Eocene, water-bearing complex. It is located south and north / of Alnajaf-Al-Maaniyah line. The yield of a well is estimated to be 3 3-13 m /sec. Depth of groundwater table within the area increases from east to west from 50-100 m to 200-300 m, and salinity is 0.5 g/1 to 4.5 g/1. The area is characterized by karst development and existence of zones of different transmissibility. Average transmissibility in the 3 Paleocene-Eocene water-bearing complex is 300 to 500 m /day/ m. On the Euphrates River right bank, the aquifer is mainly Euphrates series rocks type. The aquifer is represented by fractured 64 cavernous limestones with clay and marl bands. The Euphrates River partially drains aquifers in the region from the Syrian border to Fallujah. South of Fallujah, the Euphrates River recharges the ground water aquifer. 3.6 Hydrogeological and Soil Features of Irrigated Zone From the Syrian border down to the town of Hit the soil cover is mostly of gypseous deposits and when it is subjected to runoff or irri gation part of its salt dissolves and increases the salinity downstream. The Haditha reservoir, which is to be located in this region, may cause increases of salinity in the Euphrates. The northern part of the desert is mainly of limestone and the southern part of the desert is a mixture of limestone and sand deposits. The Mesopotamian plain is filled with deep stratum of marine and continental deposits which were covered by the Quaternary alluvium of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. The plain is almost flat with a gradient of 0.00008. The irrigated land in the Euphrates River basin is composed of sand and clay rocks, with permeability estimated to vary between .2 to 2.0 m/day. Chloride-sulphate soil salinity type which changes in the south of the Mesopotamian plain into sulphate-chloride magnesium-sodic and on the irrigated lands into chloride salinity is dominant in Iraq. The average salt content of soil ranges from 16 mmhos/cm to 64 mmhos/cm. During the irrigation period, the depth to the groundwater table in lower Mesopotamia is approximately 1.0-1.5 m . The height of water rising by capillary action is approximately 1.1-1.2 m. This 65 causes high evaporation of the groundwater which is one of the major reasons of salt accumulation in the soil. Groundwater within the boundaries of the Mesopotamian plain is 1-5 m deep and in the southern area (region of lakes) groundwater almost outcrops into the surface with salinity from 12 to 30 g/1. > CHAPTER 4 PROJECTS AND RESERVOIRS ON EUPHRATES RIVER IN TURKEY AND SYRIA Since the Euphrates River receives all of its water from the watershed area in Turkey and Syria, the projects in these countries will affect the flow regime of the Euphrates River in Iraq; thus, for the planning of water resources in Iraq, a knowledge of water requirements and the characteristics and operation policy of the existing and pro posed reservoirs on the Euphrates River is necessary. In Turkey and Syria, there exist at present large projects on the Euphrates, some of them already under operation, while others are still in the construction or planning stage. The goals of most of those projects are both power production and supply of irrigation water. Table 8 shows reservoirs on Euphrates River in Turkey and Syria and their capacities, 4.1 Reservoirs at Turkey .There will be four hydroelectric generating stations on the Euphrates River at Tiirkey. Starting from upstream, briefly, they are: 3 1. Keban project: Total storage capacity of the project is 30.5 km and the dam was completed in 1973. Four generating units are in operation and two further units, to make a total of six units, 66 67 Table 8 . Reservoirs on the Euphrates River in Turkey and Syria— from International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1975). Reservoirs Tabqa 1st 2nd Specification Keban Karakaya Karababa Stage Stage Live.storage^ volume (km ) 25.1 6.85 3.4 7.2 23.5 Total storage volume (km^) 30.5 9.50 16.1 11.7 28 . 0 Maximum water level (m.a.s.)* 846,0 695.7 547.0 302.0 322.0 Normal maximum water level (m.a.s.) 845.0 693.0 542.0 300.0 320.0 Minimum water level (m.a.s.) 780.0 660.0 519.0 285.0 285.0 Number of installedI units 6 6 6 8 Rated power (MW) 1110 1800 800 824 *(m.a.s.) = meter above sea level 68 are proposed at present. Each of these generating sets has an output capacity of 185 MW at full supply level, thus making a total planned plant output of 1,110 MW. 3 2. Karakaya project: The total storage capacity is 9.5 km and the proposed generating capacity is 1,800 MW in six units, but at present only 1,500 MW capacity is under construction. 3. Golkoi project: This project is in the planning stage as a run-, of-the-river development without significant live storage with a proposed capacity of 500 megawatts. 4. Karababa project: This is located downstream of Golkoi at 3 Karababa. With a storage capacity of 48 km this project is a multipurpose development with an 800 MW hydroelectric installa tion and provision for direct pumping of irrigation water from the reservoir to the plains of southeastern Anatolia. The Turkish power system has been short of energy for the past several years and over the medium term it is considered unlikely that development of additional generating capacity will do more than keep pace with the growing demand as well as make up the current deficit (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1975). There fore, large amounts of water will be released from the reservoirs which is helpful to Syria and Iraq. 4.2 Reservoirs in Syria At present, there is only one project on the Euphrates River — 3 Tabqa Reservoir, with a storage capacity of 11.7 km . The purpose of the Tabqa reservoir is to provide additional regulation capacity to meet . 69 requirements for irrigation and to supplement the Syrian system energy requirements. The dam has been completed in 1973 and the reservoir filled in 1974-1975. The proposed installation is eight units with a total capacity of 824 MW. The location of these projects was shown in Fig. 2 9 Chapter 1; and the characteristics of reservoirs in Turkey and Syria are shown in the following Tables 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13. 4.3 Irrigation Scheme Upstream from Iraq The current levels of extraction for irrigation and plans for development in the co-riparian countries are not known with any pre cision. However, for the purpose of this study, estimations were made based on the available data and reasonable assumptions. Concerning proposed development of additional irrigation, it is recognized that each country intends to expand its irrigated agriculture. Mainly, there are four irrigation schemes planned in Turkey and Syria: 1. Turkey: The area under irrigation in Turkey during 1974-1975 has been assumed to be 150,000 ha (net) with a per hectare annual demand of 1.40 meters distributed over the growing season. A big part of this irrigation takes place upstream of Keban dam. It is planned to increase the above irrigated area at the rate of 2,500 ha/year (International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, 1975). No specific plans are known for additional irrigation development other than the long-range, lower Euphrates project which takes its water from the proposed Karababa reservoir. The lower Euphrates project in Turkey is to Table 9• Keban Project (Turkey). Reservoir Characteristics Surface Area Volume 1 Elevation (m) (km2) (km3) 700.0 0.0 0.0 720.0 20.0 0.3 734.0 45.0 0.8 738.0 55.0 1.0 746.0 75.0 1.5 753.0 90.0 2.0 760.0 107.0 2.8 772.0 140.0 4.0 . 777.0 160.0 5.0 784.0 180.0 6.0 794.0 225.0 8.0 800.0 260.0 9.5 805.0 300.0 11.0 815.0 385.0 14.6 818.0 430.0 16.0 825.0 480.0 19.2 830.0 525.0 21.7 835.0 570.0 24.2 840.0 620.0 27.0 845.0 675.0 30.5 Turbine Characteristics Elevation Unit Output Flow Capacity (m) (MW) (cumecs) 845.0 185 135 813.0 155 803.0 140 115 Minimum operating level = 800.0 m Full supply level = 845.0 m Tailwater level (at all discharges) =693.0 m Table 10. Karakaya Project (Turkey). Reservoir Characteristics ■ Surface Area Volume Elevation (m) (km ) (km ) 560.0 0.0 0.0 590.0 4.0 0.1 600.0 6.0 0.2 615.0 8.0 0.3 620.0 12.5 0.3 630.0 18.0 0.5 640.0 37.5 0.8 645.0 63.0 1.0 650.0 87.5 1.5 660.0 137,5 2.5 670.0 175.0 4.0 675.0 200.0 5.0 680.0 219.0 6.0 690.0 262.5 8.5 693.0 268.0 9.6 Turbine Characteristics Elevation Unit Output Flow Capacity (m) (MW) (cumecs) 693.0 250 197.3 693.0 full supply level 670.0 minimum generating level 181.7 542.0 tailwater level at all discharges Turbine capacity = 0.135 MW Turbine discharge = 16.06 cumecs 72 Table 11, Karababa Project (Turkey) . Reservoir Characteristics Surface Area Volume Elevation (m) (km2) (km3) 383.0 0.0 0.0 400.0 25.0 0.5 410.0 58.0 0.7 420.0 131.0 2.6 440.0 175.0 4.0 450.0 208.0 6.0 470.0 293.0 11.0 480.0 345.0 14.3 485.0 369.0 16.1 Turbine Characteristics Elevation Unit Output Flow Capacity (m) (MW) (cumecs) 482.5 160.0 186.0 485.0 full supply level 475.0 minimum generating level 384.0 tailwater level at all discharges 1.5 Turbine capacity = 0.164 H MW Turbine discharge = 18.74 H ^ e ^ cumecs \ 73 Table 12. Tabqa Reservoir. Reservoir Characteristics Surface Area Volume Elevation (m) (km2) (km3) 260.0 0.0 0.0 283.0 343.0 3.9 285.0 376.0 4.5 290.0 457.0 6.8 295.0 543.0 9.1 300.0 628.0 11.7 Turbine Characteristics .unit Elevation Unit Output Flow Capacity/turbine (m) (MW) (cumecs) 300.0 103.0 292.0 300.0 full supply level 285.0 minimum generating level 255.0 tailwater level at all discharges 1.5 Turbine capacity = 0.341 H MW 0.5 Turbine discharge - 43.53 H cumecs A low level discharge capacity assumed to be able to meet the downstream demand. Irrigation Intake Capacity Lower Main Canal Reservoir Elevation Intake Capacity ______(m)______(cumecs)____ 283.0 0.0 283.5 20.0 284.0 35.0 284.5 45.0 285.0 52.5 290.3 (and above) 140.0 3 Table 13. Evaporation Rate (mm and m /s) for Reservoir Upstream from Iraq. Mean Surface Area Month (km2) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul. Au% Sep Total Reservoir Keban 570 109.6 48.8 20.4 15.0 8.7 54.7 96.6 154.6 215.6 281.0 275.6 174.4 14 55 mm 24.1 10.7 4.5 3.3 1.9 12.0 21 .3 34.0 47.5 61.8 60.6 38.4 26.7 m J/s Karakaya 262.5 109.6 48.8 20.4 15.0 8.7 54.7 96.6 154.6 215.6 281 .0 275.6 174.4 1455 mm 11 rt 5,0 2.0 1,5 0.9 5.6 9.8 15.6 21 .9 28.5 28.0 17.7 12.3 htj/s Karababa 360 132.5 70.6 40.6 78.3 36.5 76.5 101 .6 174.6 261.3, 313.3 303.6 214.1 1803.5 mm 18.4 9.8 5.6 10.9 5.1 10.6 14.1 24.2 36.3 43.5 42.2 29.7 20.8 ra3/s Tabqa 540 300.0 255.0 200.0 150.0 150.0 125.0 150.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 300.0 2500 mm =2.97 km* L JL 1 J1_____ J be supplied with water from the Karababa reservoir through an extensive and complex system of canals, pumping stations and small power plants recovering partly the pumping energy. Most of the irrigated lands lie in the river basins of the two tribu taries of the Euphrates, the Balikh and the Khabur. They both originated in Turkey and join the main river downstream from Tabqa reservoir in Syria. Construction of this scheme is planned to start after the completion of the Karababa and Karakaya reservoirs in Turkey, and it is estimated that it will take 30 years to complete (Tipton and Kalmbach, Co., 1967). Syria: Current irrigation in the Euphrates basin in Syria covers an approximate area of 220,000 ha with an average 3 diversion of 2.0 m depth of water (20,000 m /ha). The Euphrates Valley Irrigation Scheme is located downstream of the . Tabqa reseroir in Syria. The irrigation water is pumped directly from the Euphrates river stretch downstream from Tabqa, This project was in existence before the Tabqa dam was built, and consumes a considerable quantity of water for 3 irrigation, estimated at 3.6 km /year. The Khabur Irrigation Scheme is located on both sides of the Khabur River (the largest tributary of the Euphrates River in Syria) and it ex tends over both Turkey and Syria. The irrigation water is pumped directly from the Khabur tributary, and consequently it affects the quantity of water flow to the Euphrates River. Fig. 7 shows the irrigation system in Turkey and Syria. £ UPHRAT £ 5 R l V B R KEBAN reservoir Tnbuiaries f/oiv I" /u r a n a v a H r j j e r v o j r [JgLWy]] lower Euphrates H c a r a b a b T i r n g of i on projeci r eservoir r ef u r n f low TURKEY K H A b U R 5 YR/A r 'T/A 5 Q A RIVER r e 5 e r v o / r Tabqa K h a b u r irrigation t---- project in Turkey i rnq ati on '^Project * return K habur irrigation -----► flOM. P r o j e c t in Syria XHABUR RIVER 4 ------Euphrates f 1 o w to /ra SYRIAN - / RAQt BORDER Fig. 7 Schematic Diagram of the Irrigation System in Turkey and Syria. 77 Little information is available about the progress of the above projects and the actual irrigated land; however, estimated cultivated area and calculated water requirement are presented in Tables 14, 15, 16, and 17. The water requirement for agriculture in Turkey and Syria for the year 1995, as estimated by "SELKHOZPROMEXPORT", is shown in Appendix G. 78 Table 14. Estimated Current Irrigation Demands in Turkey and Syria— from International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1975). It is emphasized that the figures presented are order of magnitude estimates only. Total Met Turkey Syria Demand Gross Return Net Gross Return Net for Turkey Demand Flow Demand Demand Flow Demand and Syria Month (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) Oct 38 53 0 73 70 3 0 Nov 0 30 0 48 48 0 0 Dec 0 11 0 29 22 7 0 Jan 0 0 0 1 29 14 15 15 Feb 0 0 0 42 9 33 33 Mar 0 0 0 130 9 121 121 Apr 39 0 39 134 13 121 160 May 90 0 90 197 39 158 248 Jun 168 12 146 256 40 216 362 Jul 198 27 171 278 59 219 390 Aug 176 50 126 235 77 158 284 Sep 101 59 42 161 83 78 120 Total (m3/s) 2.14 0.64 1.50 4.25 1.25 3.00 4.50 Table 15, Estimated Additional Water Requirement for Irrigation in Turkey in the Year 2000. Total Gross Net Additional Net Diversion Return Diversion Diversion for Percent , 3, Flow 450,000 ha of Annual (m /s per (m3/s per Month Demand 2500 ha) (m3/s) 2500 ha) (m3/s) Oct 4.7 0.712 0.667 ... 0.045 8.1 Nov 0.0 0.0 0.554 -0.554 0.0 Dec 0.0 0.0 0.214 -0.214 0.0 Jan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Feb 00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Mar 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Apr 4.7 0.712 0.0 0.712 128.16 May 11.3 1.656 0.0 1.656 298.08 Jun 20.3 3.074 0.214 2.861 514.98 Jul 24.8 3.634 0.497,, 3.138 564.84 Aug 22.0 2.224 0.922 1.302 234.36 Sep 12.2 1.847 1.090 0.397 71.46 Total Annual Average 151.7 3 (Additional water withdrawal = 4.78 km per year) 80 Table 16. Estimated Additional Water Requirement for Irrigation in Syria in the Year 2000. Additional Demand/1000 ha Additional Net Gross Return Net Diversion for % Annual ^ersion Flow Diversion 315,000 ha Month Demand ' (m /s) (m /s) (m /s) (m3/s) Oct 4.6 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 Nov 2.9 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 Dec 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.3 9.45 Jan 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.6 18.90 Feb 2.4 1.8 0.4 1.4 44.10 Mar 8.2 5.5 0.4 5.1 160.65 Apr 8.2 5.7 0.5 5.2 163.8 May 12.4 8.3 1.7 6 .6 207.9 Jun 15.6 10.8 1.7 9.1 286.65 Jul 17.5 11.8 2.5 9.3 292.95 Aug 14.8 9.9 3.2 6.7 211.05 Sep 9.8 6 .8 3.5 3.3 103.95 Tetal Annual Average 124.9 3 Additional water withdrawal = 3.94 km /year Table 17. Total Additional Water Abstraction in Turkey and Syria from Euphrates in the Year 2000. Evaporation Net Additional from Reservoirs Total Demand for in Turkey Additional Turkey and Syria and Syria Subtraction 3 Month (m /s) (m3/s) (m^/s) Oct 8.1 80.1 88.2 Nov 0.0 72.4 72.4 Dec 9.4 53.7 63.1 Jan 18.9 46.9 65.8 Feb 44.1 39.1 83.2 Mar 160.6 54.2 214.8 Apr 292.0 76.4 368.4 May 506.0 105.0 611.0 Jun 801.6 147.3 948.9 Jul. 857.8 185.8 1043.6 Aug 445.4 157.3 602.7 Sep 175.4 112.3 287.7 Annual 276.6 94.2 370.8 3 In km /yr = 8.72 2.97 11.69 CHAPTER 5 PRESENT UTILIZATION OF THE EUPHRATES IN IRAQ Agriculture and industry are the main components of the national economy of Iraq. They constitute 64% of the gross national income, with agriculture accounting for 17% and industry, 47% of the total. Agricul ture is the main consumer of water in the country, and together with the domestic water supply it is given the first priority in water re sources planning and utilization. Industry at the present time has a minor share of the total water consumption, but, after development in the future, it will require a considerable amount of water. At the present time, the agricultural production in Iraq is low and insufficient to feed the present population (13 million in 1977). With an increasing number of people and a rising standard of living, the quantity and the quality of food has to be increased and, consequently, the system of farming has to be improved. At the present time, there are no accurate data of the annual irrigated acreage nor of water consumption by irrigated agriculture. However, from the publications of the Ministry of Planning, Ministry of r Agriculture and the Ministry of Irrigation in Iraq it is possible to arrive at some approximate figures, and they will form the basis of this analysis. After a long process of investigation, comparison, and checking of various references, two conditions of water requirements 82 83 and utilization in the Euphrates River Basin have been established. The first considers the natural flow conditions of the Euphrates River for the period of 1968-1972 and forms the baseline data which will be referred to as "the present situation". The second is based on the expected conditions in the future in the year 2000 when all the planned development upstream of Iraq, in Syria and Turkey, will have been completed, and will be referred to as the "year 2000 situation". 5.1 Land Resources and Agriculture of Iraq The climate of Iraq permits the growing of crops all year around almost in the whole country, which may be divided into three principal agricultural zones: northern, central and southern. The northern zone is mainly hilly and mountainous and is rich in forests; the foothills are used for pastures and for growing cereal crops by rain-fed agriculture. The northern zone is considered the major area in wheat production for Iraq. The small area of irrigated land in this zone receives its water from the Tigris River. The central zone constitutes the largest land area and population in Iraq. It is characterized by low precipitation varying between 100- 300 mm per year, which occurs only during winter period. Irrigation is required everywhere in this zone for crop production, and it depends mainly on the Euphrates water. It is the principal zone for the produc tion of fruit, vegetables, cotton, sesame and barley. The southern zone produces mainly dates and rice, and agricul ture here depends completely on irrigation water which is taken from both the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers as well as the Shat A1 Arab. 84 The distribution of lands among these zones, and their suitabil ity for cultivation according to the soil type are shown in Table 18. While the total land suitable for cultivation as of the year 1972 is approximately 37 million donums, only about 27 million donums ... i can be irrigated according to the soil and topographical conditions, using the present irrigation techniques. Part of the area which is suitable for only grazing because of salinity, after leaching, will be convenient for cultivation. If leaching succeeded, the total land in Iraq, which is suitable for cultivation, will be 47-48 million donums, rather than 37 million donums. In practice, for a rational planning of the water resources in the country, it is necessary to consider all water and land resources together. However, later one, the analysis will deal with the Euphrates basin only, as an independent scheme. The area of Tigris River basin suitable for cultivation is 6.49 million Donums. The total area of the Euphrates River basin suitable for cultivation is estimated as 8,600 thousand donum. Only 4.96 Million Donum is having an irrigation network. The average annual cultivated area in the Euphrates River basin, taken for the years 1968-1972 is approximately 2, 374.2 thousand donum, and all the area is irrigated from the Euphrates River. The reason why the whole area that was suitable for agriculture was not cultivated is partly because there is no irrigation system covering the whole area, and partly due to other technical and administrative problems. The average crop yield per unit area of cultivated land has increased 85 Table 18. Land Distribution and its Suitability for Cultivation— in 1,000 Donums, according to Geographical Zones in Iraq. Northern Central Southern Total Land Type Zone Zone Zone Zone Cultivable land for all 13,994 16,082 6,885 36,931 crops Land suitable for grazing 17,856 95,464 11,836 126,156 Land not suitable for agriculture (including forests, marshes) 7,243 2,016 1,256 10,515 Total area 39,093 114,562 19,947 173,602 86 significantly in recent years because of the increasing use of mechanical equipment, fertilizers, and improved farming methods. Yet it is still far from the optimal production. The annual gross crop production attained in Iraq for the years 1963-1972 are summarized in Tables 19 and 20. ■ Comparison of the production of crops in 1969, the year of: maximum recorded Euphrates River flow, with that for the years 1968-1972 indicates that the availability of excess water had-a positive effect only on the yield of rice, while the production of other crops seems to be influenced by other factors, such as technical and management problems. 5.1.1 Economics of Present Agricultural Production The indices of efficiency of agricultural production may be economically composed from the cost of production, value of production and net profit. Table 21 shows agriculture costs and values for main crops in Iraq, according to the wholesale prices valid in Iraq in 1973. The cost of production was calculated from the expenditures of state farms, which is higher than the private farm costs. The production cost in cludes salaries of workers, costs of materials and machinery used. It does not include the cost of water. Water is delivered free to the farmers and there is no established cost for it. Machinery for field work, like tractors and small trucks, is given free to the cooperative farms and rented at low cost to the private farms. Thus, it is very difficult to establish cost of produc tion and profits. 87 Table 19 Average Crop Yield in Iraq— in Kilograms/Donum. Crop Yield Average Average for for For the For the Crop 1963-1967 1968-1972 Year 1972 Year 1969 Wheat 138 227 342 175 Barley 187 285 337 285 Rice 482 717 712 751 Cotton 222 343 346 330 Sorghum 280 281 218 283 Maize 241 328 334 297 Beans 250 264 250 263 Lentiles 164 145 163 167 Linseed 167 179 159 177 Sesame 163 168 139 176 Dates 1,340 1,656 960 Onions 1,681 1,520 1,431 1,492 Sugarcane - 11,567 7,200 - Winter vegetables 1,853 1,946 1,914 1,888 Summer vegetables 2,212 2,274 2,272 2,279 88 Table 20 Gross Crop Production in Iraq— in Thousand/Tons. Annual Annual Average Average Average for for Annual Imports Export Crop 1963-1967 1968-1972 for 1969 1968-1972 1968-1972 Wheat 908.2 1,480.6 1,183.1 251.5 8.5 Barley 788.7 810.2 963.3 50.5 38.6 Rice 209.6 285.2 318.3 26.7 1.0 Cotton 25.0 38.1 29.0 43.5* 2.8 Oil Seeds 19.3 22.9 23.6 - 3.8 Vegetables and melons 1,459.6 1,829.6 1,773.0 64.3 23.1 Dates 342.2 364.3 260.0 - 291.2 Tobacco 8.8 14.5 15.8 0.7 - Sugar beets 23.2 49.0 42.3 57.5 - Fruit - - - 38.4 0.5 Sugar --- 151.9 - Vegetable oil —-- 77.5 - 2 ^Million m of textile 89 Table 21 Crop Production Economy in Iraq. O Per Donum of Cropped Area Per 1 m of Water Value of Cost of Net Value of Net Production Product Profit Production Profit Crop I-D I-D I-D Fils* Fils Wheat, barley 7.9 2.8 5.1 4.8 3.1 Rice ' 65.2 16.3 48.9 7.0 5.3 Cotton 25.2 11.9 13.3 6.0 3.0 Tobacco 69.6 20.9 48.7 18.0 12.5 Oilseed crops 14.4 4.3 10.0 4.3 3.0 Sugar beet 47.8 10.8 37.0 12.0 9.5 Sugarcane 71.1 103.9 -32.8 8.7 -4.0 Summer vegetables 102.2 18.2 84.0 21.0 17.0 Winter vegetables 39.4 14.0 25.4 19.7 12.7 Fruit 64.0 21.0 43.0 10.0 7.0 Dates 30.0 10.5 19.5 6.3 5.0 *1000 fils = 1 I.D. 90 5.2 Irrigation and Drainage Practice The modern irrigation development in Iraq was started in 1911 when a well-known English engineer, W. Willcocks, prepared a report on development of irrigation in Iraq in which flood control and water resources utilization were considered. The report recommended the construction of the Hindiyah Barrage on the Euphrates River which was constructed in the years 1911-1914, and Kut.Barrage on the Tigris River which was constructed in 1937-1939. In 1918, the Department of Irrigation was established in Iraq. Its main task was, besides problems of exploitation and reconstruction of existing canals and structures, designing and construction of new irrigation systems. Experimental stations were established early in 1950 for studying irrigation and drainage problems. Unfortunately, research at these experimental stations did not extend to cover measurement of some of the physical characteristics of the soils, such as permeability. The results and data obtained were not analyzed from a practical point of view and the methods and techniques of crop irrigation were not elaborated. In 1970, the Ministry of Irrigation was established in Iraq, which hopefully will help the development and management of water resources. In 1974, the State Organization of Soil and Land Reclama tion was founded to carry out projects of field drainage, land leveling and leaching of saline soils. 91 5.2.1 Irrigation System Most of the existing irrigation systems in Iraq are unsatis factory according to engineering practice. And their condition is not helpful for further developments in agriculture. Uncontrolled water withdrawals, insufficient number of distributing structures on the canals, lack of drainage facilities and improper field irrigation are typical characteristics of the irrigation system. As a result of this, a higher volume of water is required for irrigation and intensive soil salinization which leads to reduction of cultivated area. The main source of irrigation is surface water from the Euphrates River. About 50% of the land is irrigated with the help of pumping 3 stations which vary in capacity from 12 m'/s to 5 1./sec. Most of the irrigation pumping are equipped with diesel engines having a total power as of 1973 of about 300 thousand KW. In the stretch from Iraqi-Syrian border to Ramadi Barrage, _ irrigation is developed only on the river floodplain and water is lifted from the river by water wheels or small pumping stations. Fig. 8 shows a typical water wheel station on the Euphrates at Haditha. At the stretch from Ramadi Barrage to Hindiyah Barrage, several large main irrigation canals exist which irrigate about 75% of all irrigated lands in the basin. These canals withdraw the water upstream from Hindiyah Barrage and irrigate lands in Karbala, Musaiyab, and Hillah. The biggest irrigation system in the Euphrates River basin is Hillah project with a total gross area equal to 1,460 thousand donums, of which 650 thousand donums are irrigated annually. 92 Fig. 8 Water Wheel Station at Haditha. 93 Downstream of Kifl, the Euphrates River divides into two branches: the Kufah and the Shaniyah. There exists the largest area in Iraq for growing rice. Water flows to irrigated land by gravity, and the head is created by barrages on the river. At the stretch from Shinafiyah and Nasiriyah, irrigated lands are located on both banks of the river as a narrow strip and the irri gation system consists mainly of gravity flow from the river to the fields. In the lower reach of the river, the land is mostly water logged, especially those adjacent to Hammar Lake. The technical conditions of the existing irrigation system are not suitable for improving the agricultural production. Most of the barrages and canals do not have facilities for accurate water with drawal control, or distribution structures. The main canals are not maintained in good condition; the cross-sections are not uniform, seep age losses are great and drainage is poor and unable to prevent sal inization of irrigated land. In the field the dominant irrigation method is farrow and flooding, with a considerable amount of losses (Fig. 9). A summary of the irrigation system on the Euphrates is shown in Appendix F. 5.2.2 The Drainage System The continuous use of land for agriculture without drainage facilities has caused increases in soil salinity due to the rise of the water table, evaporation and salt accumulation. Considerable areas of previously cultivated land changed to bare land because of salinity. It is estimated that 20% of the cultivated land has been abandoned in recent years and yield on other land has declined because of salinity. Fig. 9 A Typical Field Irrigation Practice in Iraq. 95 Some reclamations have been undertaken in the past but are al most all failures mainly because of technical and social reasons. At present, there are no effective field drainage systems in most of the land, but plans and construction of drainage systems are in progress. Drainage water of the present system is discharged into the Euphrates River. Such a practice causes considerable increase of the total dis solved solids in the river. To prevent that, a decision was made to construct a centralized system for discharging drainage water out of the river (See Figs. 10 and 11). A main drainage collector was designed to collect drainage water from 6 million donums of cultivated land. The length of the main collector is 430 km and its flow capacity is 280 cumecs. The drainage water will be discharged in the Arabian Gulf outside Iraq. Construction of the main collector-was started in 1972 and is still in progress. In order to have effective drainage of the cultivated land, in addition to the main collector, field drainage systems need to be improved and constructed. ' 5.2.3 Irrigation Water Requirements The actual amount of water used for irrigation is not known due to absence of continuous measurements of flow in the main canals, seepage, evaporation and transit discharges for maintaining water levels. However, from data of experimental stations, and the concerned departments, the water requirement for different crops is shown in Table 22. The monthly utilization of Euphrates water for agriculture is shown in Table 23. i. 0 Umitie riae System. Drainage Unmaintained 10. Fig. if# m 96 97 Fig. 11 Salinity Caused by Poor Drainage and Irrigation System. Table 22 Net Irrigation and Gross Water Requirements for Crops on Euphrates Basin in Iraq. Net Water Gross Water Requirement Requirement Crops m'Vdonum mm m^/donum mm Winter Crops Wheat, barley 1070 430. 1920 770 Linseed 1025 410 1820 730 Legumes (peas, beans, lentiles) 750 300 1350 540 Berseem 1500 •540 2420 970 Sugar beet 2100 840 3750 1500 Potato 1220 490 2190 870. Onion 2250 900 4030 1610 Other vegetables 1925 370 1650 660 Summer Crops Cotton 2700 1080 4900 1960 Sesame 1975 790 3600 .1430 Rice 4925 1970 8950 3580 Legumes 3100 1240 5650 2260 Vegetables (tomatoes, okra. eggplant, etc.) 2825 1130 5150 2050 Maize, sorghum 2300 920 4180 1670 Perennial Crops Orchards, palm trees 3700 1480 6280 2510 Alfalfa 4550 1820 7710 3080 Sugarcane 4700 1880 8870 3550 3 Average gross water requirement = 3800 m /donum. Table 23 Monthly and Annual Water Requirement for Agriculture (Average for 1968-1972). Water Requirement Percentage Month (million m^) of Annual January 256 2.8 February 484 5.5 March 693 7.8 April 1,130 12.8 , May 1,085 13.3 June 1,248 14.1 July 1,241 14,0 August 1,094 12.4 September 779 8.8 October 376 4.3 November 246 2.8 December 216 2.4 Total annual 8,848 100.0 100 The transit water discharges in the river and canals, to create - the necessary head for withdrawal of water by gravity, is approximately 3 5 km /yr. Thus, the annual water required for irrigation in the 3 Euphrates River basin is approximately 13-14 km (Fig. 12). 5.2.4 Domestic and Industrial Water Use The approximate water consumption per person is 150 1,/day in big cities and 100 1/day in smaller towns. Water supply systems are in poor ■ condition and in the summer season people usually experience some shortage in water supply a few hours a day, even in Baghdad. Operation and maintenance of water supply systems is under the responsibility of the Ministry of Municipalities and its local departments in towns. Most of these systems are operated by non-skilled labor, having no engineering training. Very few of these systems are supervised by engineers. Based on the present population of the Euphrates Basin in Iraq (2,863,000) the total annual water supply for domestic and municipal 3 uses is estimated as approximately .27 km /yr. The big industrial enterprises such as oil refineries, textile factories, etc. in Iraq usually have their own water supply system. The technical and sanitary conditions of these systems are very satis factory. The estimated present use of water for industry in the Euphrates basin, including cooling water for thermal power generation, is .113 km^/yr. The monthly water use by different consumers in the Euphrates basin in Iraq at the present time is summarized in Table 24. 2500 - Mean monthly natural flow 2000 Monthly water requirement 1500 1000 J 500 MONTH Fig. 12 Euphrates River Natural Average Flow versus Irrigation Requirement. Table 24 Monthly Water Utilization at the Present Time in the Euphrates Basin in Iraq— in Million m3. ' For Total For Domestic Month Irrigation & Municipal Industry (million m^) rn^/s January 256 16.2 9.4 281.6 105 February 484 16.0 9.4 509.4 211 March 693 18.9 9.4 721.3 269 April 1,130 21.6 9.4 1,161.0 448 May 1,085 23.0 9.4 1,117,4 417 June 1,248 24.3 9.4 1,281.7 494 July 1,241 19.8 9.4 1,280.2 478 August 1,094 28.5 9.4 1,131.9 423 September 779 25.6 9.4 814.0 314 October 376 24.2 9.4 409.6 153 November 246 21.6 9.4 277.0 107 December 216 20.3 9,4 245.7 92 Annual 8,848 270.0 112.8 9,230.8 CHAPTER 6 WATER REQUIREMENTS AND ECONOMY OF THE EUPHRATES RIVER IN IRAQ IN THE YEAR 2000 In designing and analyzing water resources systems5 in addition to the present conditions, the possible future conditions of the systems should be studied and considered. Hence, in this chapter, both the water requirement and Euphrates River flow in the future are calculated. In underdeveloped and developing countries where the population grows fast, self-sufficiency in food is the most important problem. Agri- ■ ' culture, as the main source of food, is a prodigious user of water. Thus, the irrigation water requirement for the future is calculated here based on the projected population at the year 2000. The reason the year 2000 was chosen was because it is expected that at that time all the reservoirs and projects in Turkey, Syria and Iraq will be completed, and that a more or less steady state of water utilization will be reached. 6.1 Population Growth Most discussions on population estimating suggest five "methods" for extrapolating the past population curve of a city on the assumption of: (1) uniform growth rate, (2) uniform percentage growth, (3) decreasing growth rate, (4) graphical extension, and (5) comparison with growth of other cities (Linsley and Franzini, 1972). None of these methods gives 103 104 accurate results for the population projection; in many cases, a conven ient and reasonable method reflecting the local social and economical conditions gives the best result. Only four population censuses were made in Iraq; the first one was in 1947 and the latest was in 1977, According to the Ministry of Planning (1979) the population percentage growth were the following: 32 percent for the years 1947-1957; 28 percent for the years 1957-1965; and 49 percent for the years 1965-1977. ) ' In Iraq, health and living standards have been improved greatly during the past decade and that has caused an increase in the percentage increase in population to 40 percent per decade. It is expected that the improvement in living and health standards will continue in the future and therefore the same rate of increase in population is assumed until the year 2000. After the year 2000 the population growth rate is expected to decrease due to social changes. According to the 1977 census, Iraq's population was 12 million and only 24 percent of this population was living in the Euphrates basin. Using the uniform percentage growth, increase, the projected population of Iraq is estimated at 25,641,000 in the year 2000 (Fig. 13); it is estimated that the population living in the Euphrates basin in that year will be 6,316,000, compared to 2,863,000 in 1977. The popu lation of only the Euphrates basin in Iraq as of 1977is shown in Appendix H. 6.2 Food Requirement and Agriculture As an average, the food requirement per capita per day is approx imately 2500 kilo calories and 65 gm. protein. The recommended daily i. 3 ouainGot i Iraq. in Growth Population 13 Fig. POPULATION IN MILLIONS 26 194 ? YEAR U U 02q IV7 5 4 million 641 25 2000 105 106 dietary allowances and the content of calories and protein are shown in Appendix H. Accordingly, the suggested daily allowances and annual consumption of food per capita is calculated and shown in Table 25. The cultivated areas of different crops and water requirement to produce the food for the year 2000 (Table 26) were calculated using the same average crop yield and water requirement for the period 1968-1972. It is also assumed that about 20% of the crops may be spoiled due to the lack of proper transportation and storage facilities. 6.3 Water Requirement 6.3.1 Irrigation Water According to the Ministry of Planning data (Appendix G)/ the annually irrigated area on the Euphrates basin in the year 2000 is to be 4210 thousand donum, 14% greater than the area calculated in Table 26 (3704 thousand donum). Consequently, the annual water required for 3 irrigation according to Ministry of Planning data is 15 km , while the 3 calculated irrigation requirement is 12.44 km . In this dissertation, the calculated results are used in the analysis. Improvement of the existing irrigation system and field practice is necessary to increase the crop yield and reduce the water use. .Assum ing an irrigation efficiency of 60% and an increase of crop yield by 10% over the present average, the irrigation water requirement will 3 drop considerably to 9.36 km per year. Transit water discharge necessary for creating a water level in the river such that irrigation water flows by gravity into the intake 107 Table 25 Suggested Consumption of Food per Capita and the Total Annual Food Required for the Population of the Euphrates Basin in Year 2000. Protein Total for Calories per day Euphrates Popula- Food Product gm/day per day (gm) kg/yr tion (1000 tons) Wheat 269 941 31.5 98 619 Rice 68 245 4.5 25 158 Potatoes 45 31 .8 16 101 Sugar 90 350 - 33 209 Legumes 18 47 8.2 6 38 Fruits 180 83 .9 66 417 Dates 100 35 - 37 234 Vegetables 300 110 7.0 110 695 Vegetable oil 20 170 - 7 44 Meat 100 280 18.0 36 227.4 Fish 20 27 4.0 7 44 Eggs 25 36 2.7 9 57 Milk 200 136 7.0 73 461 Total 1,435 2,491 84.6 Table 26 Cultivated Area and Water Requirement on Euphrates Basin in Iraq Satisfactory for Food Production in the Year 2000. Gross Irrigated Area Water Required Crop (thousand donum) (million m^/year) Wheat, barley 1,550 2,976 Rice 222 1,987 Vegetables 530 1,705 Dates and Fruits 335 2,104 Oil Seeds 293 1,054 Fodder, pasture 600 1,800 " Cotton 139 681 Sugar beet 35 131 Total 3,704 12,438 109 3 3 channel is estimated as 5 km per year. By adding 5 km to the gross water requirement calculated in Table 26, the average satisfactory flow o of the Euphrates River water to Iraq in the year 2000 should be 16.44 km . If the irrigation system is improved, the transit discharge will not be 3 required and 5 km per year will be saved. 6.3.2 Improvement of the Existing Irrigation System The poor technical standards of the existing irrigation system and the absence of proper drainage of the irrigated land leads to in tensive soil salinization, causing a decline in the cultivated area and crop yield. Therefore, a technical improvement of the existing irrigation- drainage systems is very essential for efficient utilization of the Euphrates water system to increase crop production. The new outlook of improved irrigation system could be accomplished by means of: 1. Construction of barrages on the main and distributary canals to provide the required water levels, and construction of new intake structures at the head of main irrigation canals. 2. Repair and maintenance of irrigation networks, such as reducing seepage from canals by lining, providing the system with hydraulic structures, etc. 3. Construction and maintenance of field drainage networks and reclamation of saline lands. 4. Better farm management, using the recent tools in agriculture and irrigation, such as sprinkler and drip irrigation, ferti lizers and greenhouses. 110 5. Improvement of the infrastructure for the farms, such as roads, communication lines and electrical power. 6 . Education and training of the workers and professionals working in irrigation and agriculture. 7. Research and experimental station related to agriculture, land and water resources application, and establishment of active extension services for the farmers. The goal of the Iraqi government is to be self-sufficient in agriculture and food production. Self-sufficiency could be attained if better irrigation and agricultural practices were established, as mentioned in the previous steps. However, such a great scope of work requires a large investment and extended period of time to complete. It is diffi cult to assign a cost for such large-scale jobs, because it requires detailed surveys and measurements covering the size and kind of effort. 6*3*3 Domestic Water Supply In the year 2000 it is planned to, provide all the rural and urban population with water supply for domestic use. Assuming the con sumption per capita per day to be equal to 300 liters (80 gallons), the 3 mean total daily requirement for domestic use will be 1.9 million m , and 3 the annual requirement will be 693.5 million m for the total popula tion of the Euphrates basin. 6.3.4 Industrial Water Supply The largest industry users of water are the thermal power generating stations (TPS), which in the year 2000 will have an electrical Ill output of 35,040 million KWH for the whole country. The expected annual water required for those located on the Euphrates basin is 265 million m 3 . If we assume that the domestic and industrial water supplies are distributed uniformly over the year, then the mean monthly water require ment for all purposes in Iraq is shown in Table 27. 6,4 Average Mean Annual Flow of Euphrates River to Iraq in the Year 2000 Assuming the average long-term recorded natural runoff of the 3 Euphrates River in Iraq (29.36 km ) is valid for the year 2000 in the natural conditions, and considering the additional withdrawal of water from the Euphrates in Turkey and Syria as mentioned in Chapter,4, then: flow of Euphrates to Iraq = the long-term average flow - additional water requirement in Turkey and Syria - evaporation from 3 reservoirs in Turkey and Syria = 29,36 - 2.97 - 8.72 = 17.67 km . The monthly distribution of Euphrates River flow to Iraq will tend to be more uniform than the present time, as regulated by the dams and reservoirs in Turkey and Syria. The most reasonable distribution A to be chosen at the present time is according to the modified percentage of flow to Iraq during the years 1977-1978, as shown in Table 28. Table 29 shows the comparison of the average monthly natural .flow of the Euphrates River at Hit from the period of record before construction of the upstream dams, the actual modified flow in the year 1978, and the calculated flow in the year 2000. From Table 29 we can conclude that operation of the reservoirs in Turkey and Syria will increase the monthly runoff of the Euphrates . 112 Table 27 Mean Monthly Water Requirement in Year 2000 with Improved Irrigation System of 60% Irrigation Efficiency and 10% Increased in Crop Yield. Irrigation Domestic and Mean water Industrial Total Monthly % of 3 3 Month Annual (million m ) (million m^) (million m ) (m^/s) January 6.0 561.60 80 641.60 240 February 5.9 522.24 80 602.24 ■ 249 March 11.8 1104.48 80 1184.48 442 April 11.9 1113.84 80 1193.84 430 May 8.2 ' 767.52 80 847.52 316 June 10.3 964.08 80 1044.08 403 July 9.8 917.28 80 997.28 372 August 9.8 917.28 80 997.28 372 September 5.7 ' 533.52 80 613.52 237 October 3.0 280.8 80 360.8 135 November 9.3 870.48 80 950.48 367 December 8.3 776.88 80 856.88 320 Total kirf* 10.2 Table 28. Calculated Flow of Euphrates to Iraq in Year 2000. Percentage of Flow Monthly Euphrates Flow for Years to Iraq _____ Month 1977-1978 (Km3) m 3/s Jan 7 1.24 462 Feb 7 1.24 511 Mar 12 2.12 792 Apr 09 1.59 614 ' May 15 2.65 1022 Jun 14 2.47 954 Jul 6 1.06 396 Aug 5 0.88 330 - . Sep 6 1.06 409 Oct 6 1.06 396 Nov 6 1.06 409 Dec _7 1.24 462 Total Annual 100 17.67 560 114 Table 29 Average Natural Flow, Flow in 1978, Calculated Flow at Year 2000 of Euphrates in Iraq (mu/s). Natural Actual Calculated Average Modified Flow in Month Flow Flow 1978 Year 2000 Jan 702 728 462 Feb 795 706 511 Mar 1136 1230 792 Apr 2157 882 614 May 2446 1540 1022 Jun 1272 1450 954 Jul 567 563 396 Aug 331 535 330 Sep 282 729 409 Oct 333 594 396 Nov 452 644 409 Dec 596 723 462 3 Average Annual Flow (m /s) 931 853 560 3 Total Annual Flow (km ) 29.36 26.89 17.67 115 to Iraq in the summer season and decrease it in the flood season* which is helpful to Iraq for both flood protection and irrigation of summer crops. 6.5 Flow of Euphrates to Iraq in Dry Years The reservoirs in Turkey and Syria have a total storage of 3 67.8 km , which is more than twice the recorded natural average annual flow of the river to Iraq. This reserve storage will help to a great extent to relieve the shortage in the river flow during dry years. The natural flow of the Euphrates of driest year on record at Hit was 3 10.33 km /yr in 1929 (probability 4%). If the same event of dry year occurs (probability 4%) in the future, the reservoirs will be safely capable of supplying the water to meet the demands downstream. Even if the same dry condition occured in two consecutive years (?= .16%), the reservoirs in Turkey and Syria will meet the water requirements. Extreme damage of agriculture in Iraq will occur only if more than three dry years occur consequently (probability .006%), which is very unlikely to happen. If that event occurs, Tharthar reservoir, with 3 a storage capacity of 85 km , will help to a great extent— assuming that the water quality of the Tharthar reservoir is good by that time. The ground water reservoir is another vast and secure water resource, in case of dry years. Ground water is reliable only if it is well studied and developed. However, an agreement between Turkey, Syria and Iraq, regarding the use of the Euphrates water, is very important to Iraq, especially for the management of water resources in dry years. 116 Table 30 and Figure 14 show two possible alternatives of water requirement in the Euphrates in Iraq, for the year 2000. The first alter native is using improved irrigation system and crop yield, and the second alternative is using the existing irrigation efficiency. 3 The annual average inflow to Iraq in the year 2000 (17.76 km ) is found to be satisfactory for both alternatives of irrigation water requirement. Thus, excess water may be used for cultivation of more land, or leaching. It may be stored for year around reserves. Habbaniya reservoir is satisfactory, while proposed Haditha reservoir may help for extra storage. An annual average release from Tharthar 3 Lake to the Euphrates of 231.0 m /s (less than half the Tharthar- 3 3 Euphrates canal capacity (500 m /s)), which is equivalent to 7.3 km of water annually, is assumed possible. Thus, the total annual water ' 3 3 quantity available in the Euphrates basin is 25 km , of which 24 km is available for irrigation purposes. 6.6 Power Industry All the power industry in Iraq belongs to the government, and it is based on thermal power stations at the present time. Diesel power plants were constructed for the first time in Iraq in 1918, and steam power plants started in 1933. At the present, 85% of the total power in the country is connected to the power grid, while 15% of energy is generated by small isolated diesel power stations. The existing total installed power of the main grid is 799 MW, developed by eight thermal power stations and one hydropower station. In 1973-1974, the power generated in Iraq was 3.6 billion kwh. 117 Table 30 Water Requirement vs. Euphrates Flow in Iraq for Year 2000 Water R e q uirement______Calculated Average Without Improvement With Improvement Euphrates Flow Month (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) Jan 438 240 462 Feb 462 249 511 Mar 707 442 792 Apr ' 730 430 614 May 540 316 1022 Jun 653 403 954 Jul 614 372 396 . Aug 614 372 330 Sep 432 237 409 Oct 298 135 396 Nov 605 367 409 Dec 544 320 462 Annual (mB/s) 553 324 560 In kjn^ = 17.44 10.20 17.67 ro Fig. 14 Mean Monthly Euphrates River Flow atFlowYear River Euphrates Monthly Mean 14Fig. WATER REQUIREMENT 1000 1500 500 — i i— r J J J M M — r 1 i JL H T N O M -L I Euphrates flow at yr. 2000 conventional Irrigation withImproved Irrigation 1 --- 2000 ---- adWtr Requirement. andWater D N 1 ■ ~ r I __ —"i — 118 119 Hydropower in Iraq is under development. In 1972 the first hydropower station in Samarra on the Tigris was operated. The capacity of the Samarra hydropower station is 84 MW. The second hydroelectric station with installed capacity of 400 MW is under construction on Dokan reservoir on the lesser Zab River, one of the Tigris’ tributaries in Iraq. The estimated power requirement for the whole country in the year 2000 is 11,063 MW and average annual electric power output is 56.1 billion kwh. Thermal power generation will remain the main source of electricity in Iraq and will generate more than 80% of the total power requirement. The cost price of electric energy generated by the grid thermal power station is 1.6-3.3 fils/kwh, with an average of 2 fils/kwh. The cost of hydropower generated at Samarra is 0.4 fils/kwh. The plan of the government is to develop hydropower in the north of the country where water is available, and thermal power in the south near the rich oil fields, while the main electricity consuming region is in the central part of Iraq. Thus transmission lines have to be con structed from the generating areas to the consuming area, which will increase unit cost of electricity. 6.7 Fishery The Euphrates River, Habbaniya reservoir, lakes and marshes are suitable water resources for fisheries. There exist about 40 fresh water fish species, including carp, loach, catfish, and mullet families. Salt-water fish species of the herring, anchovy, and sea-mullet families 120 exist and spawn in the downstream reach of the river and lake Hammar. Sixty percent of the total fish yield is from the genus of the carps, which is of commercial importance. According to preliminary estimation, the Euphrates can provide annually 20.5 thousand tons of fish. The probable fish yields estimated according to the feedings grounds are: Source of Fish Yield Water Body Water Supply in Tons Hammar Lake Euphrates and Tigris 9,200 Shatra Lake Euphrates and Tigris 1,320 Abu-Dibbis Euphrates 6,400 Kurna marshes Euphrates and Tigris 2,000 Shamiya Euphrates 420 Habbaniya reservoir Euphrates 960 Euphrates River 160 Total ______20,460 Tharthar Lake, which was not mentioned in the above table,would be a good place for fish growing Diverting of big quantity of water for irrigation could affect the fish stock production process. There were no practical procedures or plans in Iraq to control and improve the natural, fish production in the water bodies of Iraq. Recently the Government of Iraq had started some studies to increase the fish yield. The main spawning grounds are located between the Syria-Traq bor ders and Hit. Thus, the Haditha dam will block the way to the spawning grounds and the spawning grounds will be reduced due to flooding. 121 The present design of Haditha dam does not.include fish passing facilities due to its high cost. Fish stock will also suffer consid erable losses in the downstream pool of the dam because of the reduction of flood peaks which prevent flooding of the spawning area which is located mainly outside the river channel in the foreshore. The complete flooding of the spawning area during spawning period (April) requires water dis- 3 charges greater than 1500 m /s, at Haditha. The losses of fishery in Iraq due to construction of dams in Turkey, Syria and Iraq will be very considerable. 6.8 Flood Conditions of Euphrates Basin, Iraq The change in the Euphrates River flow takes place slowly and gradually, with no disastrous flooding being experienced in the past ex cept one in the year 628 A.D. Compared to the Tigris, the Euphrates is considered much safer to live near. For this reason the ancient Semites, founders of the most ancient agricultural colonies, were settlers on the Euphrates banks in 4000 B.C. Streamflow Records at Hit (1925-1973) show that the. flood period of the Euphrates in Iraq is March-June, and that maximum flooding occurs mostly during the months of Apri1-May. The earliest maximum water discharge occured on April 1, 1964, and the latest occured in May 1967. The flood peak usually lasts for one or two days and is of a multipeak character due to uneven snow melting and rainfalls at the upper reaches of the river. High floods were observed in 1929, 1940, 1948, 1954, 1967, and 1969. The largest water discharge of Euphrates for the period of record was 7390 m^/s in May of 1969, 122 The Habbaniya reservoir is capable of protecting against big floods of one percent probability similar to that in 1969. In addition to that the reservoirs in Turkey and Syria with a total capacity of 3 67.8 km will be very helpful for reducing flood flows to Iraq, especially if a treaty can be agreed upon between Turkey, Syria and Iraq. The calculated flood frequency for natural flow at Haditha is: Maximum Discharge Calculated Maximum Probability (by Hydroproject) Discharge by the Author Percent (nrVs)______(m^/s)__ 0.01 13,500 12,274 0.1 10,650 10,025 0.3 9.360 9,118 1 9,000 8,100 5 6,180 6,300 10 5.360 5,500 The calculation methodology is shown in Appendix E. The areas subjected to flood damage are those located south of the town of Ramadi. These areas constitute the cultivated land for agriculture in the Euphrates basin. The flood protection methods consist of dikes on the banks of the river and diversion of flood water to natural depressions. 3 The Habbaniyah reservoir, with a capacity of 2.5 km , Abu-Dibbis 3 with a capacity of 27 km , and the dikes are the only facilities used for flood protection from ancient times until now. These structures' function re liably and protect against a maximum flood discharge of 5200 nr/s (p=10%) 123 in the natural condition. They also reduce the damage and provide partial 3 protection for a flood discharge of 7390 m /s (p = 1 percent). However, flood protection could be improved by the following measures: 1. Increasing the capacity of the existing Habbaniyah-Abu Dibbis system. This may be done by increasing the capacity of the Warrar 3 regulator and canal to twice the present one (2700 m /s) and increase at the same time the Mujarra canal and regulator. 2. Construction of the Hit-Tharthar canal to transit flood water of the Euphrates to the Tharthar depression. This will require flooding some of the cultivated land near Hit by the assumed reservoir. This has the benefit of reusing the water. 3. Construction of Haditha reservoir, which also will flood some of the cultivated area, roads, houses. 4. Connecting the Abu Dibbis reservoir to the Euphrates through a canal so that it will be possible to discharge water from Abu-Dibbis reservoir back to the Euphrates. However, the salinity of Abu Dibbis water is very high (10,000 ppm), and will affect the quality of the Euphrates River water in case it is discharged there. 5. Expansion of the levees along the Euphrates. 6. Agreement with Turkey and Syria concerning the operation of the reservoirs on the Euphrates. The preferred flood measures are, first, the agreement with Turkey and Syria; and, second, construction of the Hit-Tharthar canal. CHAPTER 7 ANALYSIS OF THE ALTERNATIVES SYSTEM, AND OPTIMIZATION Chapters 5 and 6 showed the existing and future conditions of the water resources of Euphrates in Iraq. They included the area suitable for cultivation, population requirement for food, and the suggested crops for food production. Also, the chapters explained the water requirements for industry and domestic use in year 2000. The expected modified Euphrates flow to Iraq was calculated for average and dry years. Conditions of elec trical power generation and fishery were also briefly explained. Besides that, the reservoirs and projects on the Euphrates in and out of Iraq were discussed in considerable detail. This information was necessary for pointing out the real problems of the water resources that exist now, or might develop in the future as foreseen now. Up to this stage, the study showed that the water quantity in the Euphrates in the average year is sufficient for meeting the agricul tural demands for self-sufficiency in food production in Turkey, Syria and Iraq, for the present time and for the near future. In spite of that, Iraq experienced, from time to time, shortages in some agricultural crops and animal production, as well as domestic water. Thus, planning for optimal utilization of the existing river system or other feasible alternative systems should be very useful. 124 125 7.1 Components of Euphrates River Water Resources System in Iraq The existing system of Euphrates River water resources in Iraq con sists of the Euphrates River itself, the Habbaniya, Abu-Dibbis, and Tharthar reservoirs, and the canals connecting these reservoirs to the river (Fig. 15). Habbaniya reservoir is the only project for flood pro tection and river flow regulation at the present time. In 1976, the Tharthar-Euphrates Canal was completed and Tharthar reservoir became part of the Euphrates system. Tharthar reservoir contributes to the flow of Euphrates River downstream of Ramadi. In 1979 construction of the Haditha reservoir on the Euphrates was started and thus it will affect the river flow regime and the system operation. While .Habbaniyah and Haditha reservoirs receive their water from Euphrates River, Tharthar reservoir receives its water from Tigris River. In order, to analyze the system, it is necessary to study the components of the system and know their characteristics. The main components of Euphrates River system are: 7.1.1 Euphrates River Natural conditions and projects in Turkey and Syria have been des cribed in Chapters 3 and 4. The modified flow of the river for the year 2000 was also calculated in Chapter 6; therefore it will not be described here. 7.1.2 Habbaniyah Reservoir This reservoir is a natural depression located southwest of the Euphrates River stretch between Ramadi City and Falluja town. In the past the reservoir was only used as a flood escape for the Euphrates River water. IRAQI- SYRIA BORDER EUPHRATES RIVER / \ HADITHA RESERVOIR HADITHA TIGRIS RIVER Ground water HIT • Warrar RAMADI H ABBANIYAH Canal Tharthar THARTHAR RESERVOIR SAMARRA Dibban Canal | RESERVOIR Canal •FALLUJA CanaMujarrah ABU DIBBIS RESERVOIR HILLA BAGHDAD. IRRIGATION PROJECTS RRIGATION PROJECTS DRAINAGE ‘WATER RETURN FLOW QURNA BASRAH # SHAT AL ARAB ARABIAN GULF Fig. 15 Schematic Diagram of Euphrates River System in Iraq. 127 In 1955, the inlet and outlet channels were completed with regu lators to make it usable for irrigation and regulation of the river flow as well as for flood protection (Sousa, 1944 ; Development Board, 1956). At the present time, the Habbaniyah reservoir is the only effec tive reservoir on the Euphrates River in Iraq, for the purpose of flood protection, water storage for irrigation, and regulation of the river flow. The reservoir is operated by four regulators (see Fig. 16): 1. The Ramadi Barrage on the Euphrates, near the City of Ramadi, is used for controlling the flow of the river. The discharge 3 capacity of the barrage is 3,600 m /s. 2. The Warrar Regulator, situated on the connecting canal between the river and the reservoir to govern the inflow to the reservoir. The discharge capacity of the Warrar canal is 3 2,700 m /s , and its length is 8.5 km. It was completed in 1954. 3. The Dibban Regulator, which regulates the water released from the reservoir through the Dibban Canal back to the river. The 3 capacity of Dibban Canal is 380 m /s, and its length 13 km. It was completed in 1951. 4. The Mujafrah Regulator regulates the water released from Habbaniyah reservoir to Abu Dibbis depression when high flood takes place. The length of Mujarrah canal is 8.2 km and the 3 capacity is 1960 m /s. It was completed in 1941. Efficiency of the Habbaniyah reservoir for both flood control and irrigation could be increased by increasing the capacity of the reservoir inlet and outlet channels. 128 • Ramadi Euphrates River Warrar Canal /Dibban < Canal Falluja Habbaniyah Reservoir Mujjarah Canal Razzaza Dam Abu Dibbis Drainage Reservoir =^ZcanaT Fig. 16 Habbaniyah Reservoir and Canals. 129 The reservoir characteristics are: water level, 51.7 m and 3 42.5 m, maximum and minimum, respectively; and storage9 3.56 km and 3 0.60 km , maximum and minimum, respectively. The relation between stor age and water surface area and elevation is shown in Figure 17. Abu Dibbis depression is used only for storage of water released from Habbaniyah through the Majurrah canal during flood season. It has no outlet and no seepage losses exist since groundwater flows into the reservoir; thus, water discharges out of it only by evaporation. Its 3 storage capacity of 27 km , at water level 40.5 m, could be increased if dikes are constructed around the depression. The elevation-area-capacity curve of Abu Dibbis reservoir is shown in Fig. 18. 7.1.3 Tharthar Reservoir The Tharthar reservoir was originally a natural depression which serves as a discharge area for the ground water in the vicinity and as storage for the runoff of wadi Tharthar. Later on in 1956, after the diversion channel from the Tigris River was constructed, it became a big flood storage reservoir to protect Baghdad against flood and a potential source of water for irrigation. Morphology. The Tharthar reservoir is surrounded by a water-% shed the altitude of which varies from 61 m to 200 m above mean sea level. The lowest point in the reservoir has an elevation of 4.0 m below mean sea level. 2 The wadi Tharthar drainage area is about 30,000 km , located between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in the Eastern Desert of Iraq. The topography is almost level with very small slope, with the exception ELEVATION m. a.s.m.l. 0 6 3 0 0 4 42.0 0 4 4 0 6 4 38.0 0 8 4 50.0 i. 7 abnyh eevi, lvto-raCpct Curve. Elevation-Area-Capacity Reservoir, Habbaniyah 17 Fig. 0 100 200 1.0 RA N KM2 IN AREA EEVI CPCT I KM3 M IN CAPACITYRESERVOIR K RA CURVE AREA 300 0 500 400 2.0 CAPACITY CURVE 600 0 3 130 AREA IN KM/ 1200 1600 2000 2400 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 CAPACITY CURVE 32 30 28 AREA CURVE 26 24 22 20 18 16 CAPACITY IN KM. 131 ^ig. 18 Abu Dibbis Reservoir, Elevation-Area-Capacity Curve 132 of the mountains in the north end of the basin which has an elevation up to 1,000 m. The soil is alluvium with a high gypsum content and is quite shallow due to erosion. The length of the main wadi is 300 km along the north - south axisand its width.ranges from 50 m in the north to 7,000 m in the south. The flow of the wadi can exceed 1,000 cumecs in rainy seasons as a result of long duration storms. Prior to the diversion from the Tigris River the mean water level at the depression fluctuated around the mean of 3.0 m(amsl) resulting from annual rainfall of 140 mm in wadi Tharthar. The total dissolved solids of the water in the reservoir was rang- ranging from 750 ppm in February to 2,5000 ppm in September. The seepage losses are insignificant compared to evaporation, especially after satu ration of the embankments. Table 31 shows a water balance calculation • of Tharthar reservoir for the period 1956-1972. Parameters of Tharthar Reservoir. Full capacity at maximum 3 level of water (65.0 m) equals 85.4 km . Dead storage at level 45.0 m 3 3 equals 43.8 km . Useful capacity equals 41.6 km . Figure 19 shows elevation-area-capacity relationship of the reservoir. The Tharthar-Euphrates Canal. The Tharthar-Euphrates canal was completed in 1976. The canal transports water from the Tharthar reservoir through a regulator by gravity to the Euphrates River (Fig. 20). The canal consists of three stretches. The first stretch has a bottom width of 37.0 m and gradient 0.00015 and is designed for maximum 3 discharge of 1,100 m /s with maximum depth of flow 11.0 m and maximum 133 Table 31 Water Balance of Tharthar Reservoir for the Period from April 14, 1956 to January 31, 1972. Volume Water of water o Levels Water Balance Components (km ) m(amsl) Initial storage as of April 14, 1956 (prior to water release from Tigris) 0.10 -2.60 Inflow: , Volume of runoff from the Tigris River 107.7* Runoff from the local watershed of the reservoir 0.9 Rainfall on the reservoir water surface 1.2 Total inflow (km ) 109.8 Outflow: (Evaporation) During periods of water diversion from Tigris River 6.5 During periods with no water diversions from the Tigris River 28.2 Total outflow 34.7 Storage of water in the reservoir as of January 13, 1972 65.0 56.4 Discrepancy of.the balance 10.2** *Volume of the Tigris River runoff discharged through the regulator on Tigris-Tharthar Canal was determined from the difference of Tigris River water discharges in the upstream and downstream of Samarra Barrage. Runoff upstream of the barrage was determined from correlation curve of the Tigris River mean monthly water discharges at Fatha and at Samarra for the periods when there were no water discharges through the regulator. ^Discrepancy of the balance represents a difference between the value of runoff volume diverted into the reservoir through canal from the Tigris River and the value of runoff volume accumulated in the reservoir for the period of water releases determined from design reservoir capacity curve. It is supposed that the disclosure of the balance involves runoff losses due to flooding of the territories adjacent to the canal, on the one hand, and on the other hand, inaccuracy of the design values of water diversion through the regulator and the design reservoir capacity curve,, inaccuracy of evaporation figures, as well as some seepage losses may exist. If it is assumed that there exists a seepage rate of .47 km^/yr (similar to the Haditha project) (Al-Hadithi, 1976), then in^the period of 16 years the. total losses due to seepage would be 7.52 km , which seems to agree more or less with the discrepancy noted in.the water balance of the Tharthar reservoir. -3.4 ELEVATION 50 60 20 30 i. 9 hrhr eevi, lvto-raCpct Curve. Elevation-Area-Capacity Reservoir, Tharthar 19 Fig. 0 80 20 60 00 40 80 3200 2800 2400 2000 1600 1200 800 400 CAPACITY CURVE 24 AAIY N 3 M K INCAPACITY RA CURVE AREA 03 42 36 30 RA N KM2 IN AREA 854 48 60 66 72 134 135 ' 1 ^ 1 ' Fig. 20. Tharthar Canal. 136 of flow is 2.1 m/s. The second stretch which is 300 m long is a transi tion from one cross-section to the other which has a reverse gradient of - 0.01, bottom width change from 37 to 80 m, and the flow capacity of this 3 stretch is 500 m /s. The third stretch has a gradient of 0.00009, bottom q width 80 m, and is rated for a discharge of 500 m /s. In 1978 construction of Tharthar-Tigris canal was started and is expected to be completed in the year 1981. The purpose of this canal is to discharge part of the water from the reservoir back to the Tigris River The Tharthar reservoir, if operated effectively, may help to a great extent in supplying water to irrigation demands in Iraq. The water quality of Tharthar reservoir is defined by the total dissolved solids (TDS) measured in part per million units (ppm). Prior to the operation of Tharthar reservoir, TDS ranged from 2000 to 2270 ppm according to the quantity of the water in the reservoir, as f.ollows: Water Level (m) Water Volume (km^) TDS (ppm) Sulphate Content (ppm) 57.3 66.9 2000 1200 55.0 62.1 2160 1300 53.4 59.0 2270 1360 However, after releasing large quantities of the water from the reservoir to the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, and bringing more fresh water from Tigris, the water quality will be improved and TDS will be less. 7.1.4 Haditha Reservoir To meet the increased demand for agriculture in the future, more water for irrigation is required. Turkey and Syria plan to expand the 137 agricultural areas and increase water withdrawal for agriculture. The average annual flow of Euphrates.River to Iraq will be reduced as shown in Chapter 6. In order to supply sufficient water to meet the agricul tural and industrial development, the Iraqi government decided to build a reservoir on the Euphrates River in Iraq. Investigations and studies concerning the location and capacity of the reservoir were started in 1961. Several site alternatives were studied, some of them in great detail and at great expense. In 1975 the decision was made to build a dam on the Euphrates River at Haditha. Studies, de sign and construction of Haditha reservoir were made by the Russian experts of the Hydroproject Institute. The estimated period of construction of the project was 6.5 years at a total cost of 237 million I.D. (accord ing to revised cost estimation in the year of 1977). Due to the high cost and complicated features of Haditha reservoir, its place in and im portance to the water resource system requires detailed and careful analysis. Haditha reservoir is a multipurpose project. The main purpose is to increase the storage water for irrigation, and to control and regu late the Euphrates River flow in Iraq. The secondary purpose is to pro duce electric power, and the tertiary purpose is to control to a certain extent the extreme floods. After Keban and Tabqa reservoirs had been put in operation, indications were that the contribution of Haditha reservoir to flow regulation and irrigation was insignificant; therefore, the actual function of Haditha reservoir will be mainly for power generation, which does not agree with the main purpose considered in the design. 138 Figure 21 shows a photo of the site of Haditha reservoir on the Euphrates. The reservoir with its normal head water level (NHWL) of 143.0 m above mean sea level (amsl) will flood about 37,000 hectare of land, of which 5,500 hectars are cultivated lands. The total storage capacity of 3 Haditha reservoir is 6.4 km at NHWL of 143.0 m (amsl) and the live 3 storage is 4.0 km . ^ The Haditha project includes: 1. A rock-earth fill dam. The maximum height of the dam at the river channel is 52 m, and the length along the crest is about 8.7 km. 2. A hydroelectric station integral with the spillway and bottom outlets. The installed capacity of six hydroelectric units is 57 0 MW. The length of the hydroelectric station across the flow is 150 m. The spillway is designed to pass the flow of 0.01 3 percent probability (13500 m /s). Characteristics of Haditha reservoir are shown in Appendix C . Karsting. Karst development in the Haditha project area is evi dent in all series, but mostly in the rocks of the Ana series and in the lowest portion of the Euphrates series. In the Lower Ears series, karsting is traced in gypsum-bearing deposits of bench f^. Karst channels are found in carbonate rocks of bench eu^. Intensive leaching along pores in dolomite bench t>2_3 t^e Baba series, eu^ bench and partially eu^ bench of the Euphrates series is a specific sign of karsting. 139 Fig. 21 Haditha Reservoir Site. 140 Two types of karst are distinguished by age: 1. Older Miocene karst in the lower portions of the Ana series and in the Baba series mainly with clayey aggregate. 2. Younger Upper Pleistocene-Holocene karst in the rocks of the Euphrates series, as well as the Ana and Lower Ears series. Depth of Miocene karst development, traced by boreholes drilled in the area, goes down to elevations of 52-53 m (above msl) and fre quently found in the interval between elevations 60-70 m. Young Upper Pleistocene-Holocene karst, widely extended in the area, is represented by three zones: 1. Right bank zone of regional karst of the northwestern strike with big slump holes in the rocks of the Euphrates series and with smaller karst forms in the Ana series limestones. 2. Traces of karst in carbonate rocks of the Ana series and lower bench of the Euphrates series near the river bed. 3. Left bank zone of karst developed in gypsum of the Lower Ears series. There are large holes, open to the surface and up to 30 m deep, found mainly on the right bank with the nearest ones being only 2 km from the river. Some of the holes have running water at the bottom through openings of large diameter (Fig. 22), These karst zones are signifcant because of possible water seepage from the proposed reservoir. Karst channels range in diameter from 1 to 30 m at depths of 8 to 100 m below the valley floor. 141 Fig. 22. Karst near the Haditha Reservoir Area. 142 These holes are mainly found on the slopes of wadies. This karst zone intercepts and drains the regional right bank aquifer with partial un loading in Hajlan wadi (karst spring with discharge of 1.7 cumecs). The contour of water table, presence of springs in Fihami and A1 Akdar wadis (18 and.22 1/sec) at the levels above the river stage, and the higher water temperature at the spring in Hajlan wadi, give the indica tion that the Euphrates River water does not enter the regional aquifer but the ground water discharges to the river. After a heavy rain occurred on January 11, 1974, 5-7 cumecs flowed in Thanaya wadi but disappeared in one of the holes located in Talweg gorge near the reservoir area. After heavy rains, the water in springs cools down and carries suspended material, indicating open channels through the rocks. Although large quanti ties of cement grouting curtains are to be made, in the author’s opinion the storage efficiency and safety of Haditha reservoir is not fully demonstrated. Hydrogeology. There are two aquifers in the area of the proposed reservoir: the alluvial aquifer and the Oligocene-Miocene aquifer (Hydroproject, 1971). The alluvial aquifer is located in the sand-gravel deposits of the Euphrates valley bottom under the floodplain and the next terrace above. The aquifer thickness does not exceed 5-6 m and is recharged from both the river and the Oligocene-Miocene aquifer. It is an un confined aquifer with the level of the water table influenced by the level of water in the river. The Oligocene-Miocene aquifer which is regionally developed is considered the main aquifer in the reservoir area. The thickness of the - % 143 ' aquifer is 20-50 m. It is related to the jointed and intensively karsted dolomites and limestones of the Ana and the Baba series. Its recharge is from the seepage of rain water and it discharges in the Euphrates River through springs in the karst zones. The water table slope toward the river from both sides does not exceed 0.002, and within the limits of the river bed karst development, the slope increases to 0.005. Water movement in the aquifer ranges from 0.1 m/day up to 48.5 m/day. Maximum values of the velocities are observed in rocks of Ana and eu^ Euphrates benches. Sediment Process and Reservoir Life: No long-term observations concerning the suspended sediment, runoff of Euphrates River at Iraq are available: Data of suspended sediment ^runoff are available for Deir-ez-Zor in Syria (1956-1958) about 300 km upstream of Haditha reservoir. Measurement of sediment runoff at Haditha were started in 1974 until 1976, during the filling of Tabqa and Keban reservoirs. Thus, the measurements are not extensive. No measurement of sediment runoff at Deir-ez-Zor are available for the years 1974-1976. The recently built reservoirs upstream from Iraq (Keban, Tabqa) are trapping most of the sediment carried from upstream which results in modification of the natural sediment runoff. In spite of that, observation of sediment at Haditha dam site has shown that sediment runoff downstream of Tabqa reservoir is developing in large quantities due to degradation as well as inflow of sediments in the tributaries between Tabqa and Haditha. The sediment load varies within a considerable range according to the water stages and discharges. For example, during the rainfall flood 144 on March 27, 1974, the sediment load near Haditha was found to be 3 3 28.8 kg/m and the water discharge was 1,600 m /s. However, this result will not represent the normal sediment runoff, because in 1974 both Keban and Tabqa reservoirs were in the filling process and much of the sediment was trapped by the reservoirs. During low water periods, the sediment load decreases. For example, from February 6-10, 1974, the 3 sediment load at the same location near Haditha was 0.05 kg/m . Observation of sediment runoff of the Euphrates River at Haditha Dam site (in Abu Shabur) was started in 1974. From samples taken at Abu Shabur, for the years 1974, 1975 and 1976 the grain size distribution of the suspended material in the river and of the material of the river bed is shown in Appendix D. Lack of detailed data on channel deposits on the river stretch between the Tabqa and Haditha project does not allow for adequate descrip tion of sediment transport process along this stretch. Generally the stretch is composed of relatively thick alluvial series with sand frac tions predominating. However, due to the considerable length of this stretch (668 km), it is thought that the amount of bed load and suspended sediment entering the Haditha reservoir will be more or less equal to the amount of sediment that was carried by the natural conditions of the river flow (uncontrolled runoff). Total quantity of bed deposits in the stretch between Tabqa and 3 Haditha was estimated by the author as 3 km , which is half the total capacity of Haditha reservoir. However, considerable amount of sediments is brought to the Euphrates River through the tributaries in this stretch, such as the Khabur River. 145 The result of calculations made by the Hydroproject Institute shows that for the average year Euphrates flow the volume of sediment arriving at 3 Haditha reservoir is expected to be 18 million m per year. Accordingly, the reservoir will be filled in 355 years. However, for the economical evaluation of the project, the reservoir life is considered to be 50 .years. It is estimated also that 10 percent of the reservoir capacity and 50 percent of the dead storage will be filled by sediment after 45 years of operation. The Laursen method was used in the dissertation for estimating the sediment runoff in Euphrates River at Haditha (Appendix D) . Although the available data are not sufficient for accurate results, it was found that the amount of sediment discharges obtained by Laursen procedure were very close to the measured quantitites in Deir ez Zor in Syria. A relation curve of Euphrates flow versus sediment discharge was plotted, depending on both the observed data and the calculated data. Calculations made in the dissertation based on this relation curve showed that Haditha reservoir life may be estimated at 90 years, if average flows of Euphrates for the years 1977 and 1978 are used. Calculations also show that the dead storage of Haditha reservoir may be filled in 30 years. If a flood similar to that of 1969 occurs, according to thecalculation 10 per cent of the total storage and 25 percent of the dead storage will be filled in one year. And if two floods of 1 percent probability occur with in 20 year periods, which could be, the reservoir will be filled in 75 years. However, it should be emphasized that the figures are in order of magnitude only. Appendix D shows Laursen procedure for calculating sediment runoff. 146 Flow Characteristic of Haditha Reservoir. According to the results of the reservoir design studies and power calculations made by Hydroproject (1971), the useful guaranteed (p = 90%) water 3 yield of the existing Habbaniyah reservoir was found to be 8.2 km /year. Thus, the water economy effect of the Haditha reservoir will be as shown in Table 32. Hydropower Characteristics of the Reservoirs. The optimum power and irrigation effectiveness of the Haditha reservoir is obtained when the NHWL is at elevation 143.0 m and the maximum drawdown is to elevation 129.5 m; the corresponding live storage capacity of the reservoir will 3 be 4.0 km per year. The annual amplitude of the project headwater level fluctuations varies from 2.5 m during wet years to 11 m in the extremely dry years. 3 The discharge through the turbine varies from 8.3 km in the dry 3 years (with probability of flow 90%) to 31.9 km in the wet years (with 3 probability of flow .01%)* with an average of 14.7 km per year. Values 3 of mean monthly discharges in August are varying from 270 m /s (corres- 3 ponding to the guaranteed mean monthly capacity of 95 MW) to 538 m /s in the wet year, similar to 1969-1970. The winter mean monthly discharge in 3 January varies from 200 m /s (corresponding to the guaranteed mean 3 monthly capacity in January of 67 MW) to 2,149 m /s in wet years similar to 1969-1970, when the hydroelectric station operates with full turbine 3 discharge (Q = 1,580 m /s) and develops the full capacity equal to the installed capacity (570 MW). Water power calculations were made for two characteristic years, with the NHWL of the reservoir 143.0 m: 147 Table 32 Annual Guaranteed Water Yield of the Haditha-Habbaniyah Reservoir System, with NHWL for Haditha 143.0 m. Haditha Reservoir Hadi tha-Habb aniyah Increase of Annual Live Storage Reservoirs Annual Water Yield Due to Capacity Water Yield Haditha Reservoir (km3) (km3) (km3) 3.5 9.84 1.64 (4.0) (10.08)* 1.88 4.5 10.30 2.09 5.0 10.50 2.30 *The designed capacity. 148 1. For a dry year (runoff probability about 90%), a decrease of available capacity takes place in September by 48 MW, in October by 40 MW, and in November by 17 MW lower than the installed capacity of the station (570 MW); and no decrease occurs at end of August. 2. For the average and wet year, available station capacities through out the year are equal to the installed capacity of 570 MW. Reservoir Operation Rules. The following design parameters are to be considered in the operation of Haditha-Habbaniyah reservoir systems: 1. Normal obligatory (sanitary) releases from the Haditha reservoir 3 are assumed to be 150 m /s. With minimum sanitary releases of 3 100 m /s in dry years having river flow with p = 90%. 2. In winter when the surplus runoff occurs, the Haditha reservoir is the first to be filled, followed by the filling of Habbaniyah reservoir. When releases are required to cover the demand after discharging the water over the NHWL at Haditha reservoir, then the Habbaniyah reservoir should be d^awn upon first to the level of dead storage, then extra requirements met by releases from Haditha reservoir. Such operation of the reservoir allows for higher heads and, hence, higher output of the hydroelectric station. 3. The reservoir operation rules take into account the national grid loads to be met by the mean monthly power of the hydro electric station. Appendix C. 149 Economic Analysis of Haditha Project. The economic analysis was made by.Hydroproject according to the prices of 1975 based on the Benefit-Cost ratio method. The analysis includes many assumptions; briefly they are: 1. The total cost of the Haditha project is estimated-to be 187.1 million I.D., and the amount of local expenditures covering housing construction is 12.3 million I.D. Since the housing facilities,which is occupied now by the people who work in the reservoir construction, will remain after the project completion, cost of their consturction was deducted from the estimated cost of the project. Thus, expenses assumed in the evaluation of the project effectiveness was 174.8 million I.D. The above assumption, in fact, is not correct since the houses will be occupied later by the people who will operate and maintain the project. 2. Annual costs for the project are estimated in compliance with Soviet standards and assumed to be 2.6 million I.D. 3. The benefit for irrigation was determined according to the increment of the water yield due to the construction of the 3 project at the average rate of irrigation of 17400 m per hectare and net annual income from an irrigated of 40 I.D. The increment of water yield due to the construction of the Haditha 3 project is estimated as 3.6 km annually. From these assumptions, Hydroproject estimated the annual benefit gained from irrigation to be 8..280 million I.D. 150 4. The benefit* from reserve storage is assumed to be equal to the 3 cost of creation of a reserve storage capacity of 2.2 km (reserve storage of the reservoir). The capital cost of a reserve storage was estimated as 66 million I.D. and annual cost of 770 thousand I. D. 5. The benefit from power generation is considered equal to the cost of constructing a thermal power station of equal capacity plus the cost of fuel and operation of the station. The cost of power transmission line (10 million I.D.) was not considered in the analysis. The result of the calculation of costs and benefits based on the above assumption was carried out by Hydroproject and is shown in Table 33. The life of Haditha reservoir is assumed to be 50 years for the purpose of the economic evaluation. In determining the present value of all expenses (year of the project ultimate development) annual benefits and costs were discounted at a rate of 5 percent over a 50-year period. Thus, the total benefits and costs were determined as a sum of initial capital investment and discounted annual benefits and costs. According to Hydroproject, since the benefit-cost ratio is more than unity (1.47), it confirms the expediency of the Haditha project construction. For a dry year, the benefit-cost ratio calculated by Hydroproject is 1.1, since the storage, irrigated land, and power generation will be less, and thus the benefits will be less. 151 Table 33 Costs and Benefits of Baditha Reservoir as Estimated by Hydroproject (1975) Using Discount Rate of 5 Percent for 50 Years: Present Worth Indices Thousand I.D. Thousand I.D. Costs Capital investment in Haditha project 174,808 Annual cost for the Haditha project 2,607 Total expenditure, discount rate of 5% for 50 years ( present worth) 251,300 Benefits Capital investment in alternative thermal station 38,000 Annual cost for thermal station and fuel 4,045 Benefit from power generation (present worth) 115,300 Annual income in irrigation 8,280 Irrigation benefits (present worth) 167,000 Capital investment in reserve storage 66,000 Annual cost of reserve storage 770 Benefit from reserve storage (present worth) 86,300 Total benefits (present worth) - 368,600 Benefit-cost ratio = 368,600 251,300 = 1.47 152 Review of Benefit-Cost Analysis. After review of the assump tions and study of the data regarding the Haditha reservoir, it is found that some of the assumptions made by Hydroproject are misleading and could not be accepted by the author of this dissertation. One of the important assumptions in the analysis concerns the benefits from irriga tion due to the construction of Haditha project. In view of the devel opment of the reservoir system in Turkey and Syria, the benefit from Haditha reservoir as an irrigation project is not substantial and could be assumed equal to zero for reserve economical analysis. The second assumption by Hydroproject regarding the benefit from the reserve stor age is also not sure because the reserve storage benefit is already included in the benefit from power generation, since without the reserve storage the power capacity of the project will be less. Besides, it was not certain if it was necessary to build a reserve storage should Haditha reservoir have not been built. The cost of the high voltage transmission line has not been considered either, which will affect the decision if it is included. The cost of the transmission line from the Haditha project site to Baghdad should be added to the cost of the project, since if a thermal power station is to be installed as a substitute for Haditha pro ject the transmission line would be much shorter because the thermal power station could be installed close to the industries and communities which require the power. In the present analysis, it is assumed that the Haditha pro- 3 ject will add 1.88 km of water annually to the Euphrates River system in the average year, as was confirmed by later reports of Hydroproject 153 (Hydroproject, 1977). Thus, the annual benefit from irrigation will be 4.322 million I.D. A revised economical analysis based on the above discussion yields a benefit-cost ratio of 0.71, as shown in Table 34. Thus, Haditha reservoir is not economically feasible. However, it is included in the alternative system analysis since it is already under construction. 7.2 Alternative System Although several alternative systems of Euphrates River water resources may be arranged, only three feasible alternative systems are considered in the analysis. They are: 1. The existing system of Euphrates River, Habbaniyah reservoir, Abu Dibbis reservoir, Tharthar reservoir and the canals connecting the above reservoirs with the Euphrates. In this system the same ex isting irrigation and agriculture practice and thermal power gen eration will be kept in use. This alternative is named "do nothing". 2. The existing system explained in the first alternative but using improved irrigation system. The improved irrigation system was explained in Chapter 6 . For convenience, this alternative is named the "improved irrigation system". 3. The system of the Haditha reservoir, Euphrates River, Habbaniyah, Abu Dibbis, and Tharthar reservoirs, and the connecting canals. Also improved irrigation and drainage techniques to replace the current techniques. This system includes hydropower generation from Haditha reservoir in addition to the thermal power generation. This alternative is named the "Haditha reservoir system". 154 Table 34 Benefits and Costs of Haditha Reservoir (Reviewed According to Changed Assumptions) Using Discount of 5 Percent for 50 years. Present Worth Indices Thousand I.D. Thousand I.D. Costs Capital investment in Haditha project (in cluding cost of housing and ransmission line) 197«, 100.0 Annual cost for Haditha project 2,607.0 Present worth of annual cost 76,492.0 273,592.0 Total expenditure (cost present worth) Benefits Capital investments in alternative thermal power station 38,000.0 Annual cost for thermal station and fuel 4,045.0 Present worth of annual cost 77,300.0 Total benefit from power (present worth) 115,300.0 Annual income in irrigation 4,321.84 Irrigation benefit (present worth) 78,899.06 Total benefits (present worth) 194,199.06 . . . 194,199.06 Benefit-cost ratio = otq coo n = .71 273,592.0 155 The conjunctive use of ground water and surface water may be feasible in Iraq, but there is no plan at the present time for the poten tial use of ground water for agriculture or industry. Reasons for this are: lack of research and knowledge of the ground water situation in Iraq, low quality of ground water in most of the known aquifers, high cost of the ground water production and utilization, and, finally, the fact that the area where ground water is required is usually located outside the river valley with highly desert conditions and shallow soils. However, ' ground water even with low quality is being used successfully for growing trees and some types of vegetables in the western desert of Iraq since 1973. Decision to use ground water on a large scale can be made only after sufficient investigations, studies and research are made. 7.3 Analysis of System Alternatives . One of the methods used in comparing and analyzing alternative systems is the cost-effectiveness approach. As explained in Chapter 2 the method is based on assigning criteria for measuring th,e effectiveness of the systems to achieve the desired goals. In the state of the art of this method, either fixed-cost or fixed-effectiveness approach should be used. In most of the real-life situations, neither the cost nor the effectiveness of the alternative systems is constant. Especially in big water resources projects, which take a long time in their design and construction, the cost and the benefits change significantly with time due to industrial, political and social factors. 156 Thus, the approach used here is a varied cost-effectiveness. This means that neither the cost nor the effectiveness needs to be assumed constant to make the comparison. The same, steps of the standardized cost-effectiveness methodology by Kazanowski will be followed, except that the steps of selection, fixed-cost or fixed-effectiveness will not be considered here. The evaluation of the Euphrates system will be made based on comparison of costs versus effectiveness of the alternative systems, and then checked to see if the difference in the effectiveness between the sys tems is worth the difference in cost or not. If the greater effectiveneess is worth the increment in cost over the other alternatives, then the alternative with higher effectiveness will be selected. If the difference in cost does not appear to be worth the difference in effectiveness, then the system with lower costs will be selected. Experience and judgment are used in the evaluation. ' ■ • X 7.3.1 The Varied Cost-Effectiveness The following steps are used in the approach: 1. Define the goals and objectives that the systems are to meet. 2. Identify the system requirement or specification to meet the required goals. The specification includes physical, techno logical, economic, public health, and other related matters. 3. Develop competitive alternative systems capable to meet the goals and objectives in Step 1. 4. Establish system evaluation criteria (measures of effectiveness) that relate system capabilities to accomplishment of goals. 157 5. Determine capabilities of the alternative systems in terms of the evaluation criteria established in Step 4. 6. Generate system-versus-criteria array. 7. Analyze merits of alternative systems by ranking criteria. 8 . Perform sensitivity analysis on critical specification and criteria. 9. Document the rationale, assumptions, and analysis underlying the previous eight steps. 10. Select the most feasible system, considering both costs and effectiveness. v Now, application of this methodology to the problem of the Euphrates water resource system in Iraq is shown below. ' Goals of the Systems. The goals are summarized as follows: 1. To provide sufficient good quality water for the agricultural requirement and for industrial and domestic use. 2. To utilize effectively the available water resources of the Euphrates in Iraq, now and in the future. 3. To protect against severe floods. 4. To increase the national economy and security. Systems Specifications. The specifications are identified, to achieve the above goals, without violating the physical and cost con straints imposed on the systems. These specifications are: 1. Meet the demand for water at the present time and in the future on both annual and monthly basis. These requirements are 158 3 3 9.23 km /year, at the present and about 17.44 km /year in the year 2000, if the same existing irrigation remains in use, and 3 10.2 km if improved irrigation systems will be provided (Table 30). 2. Depend more on guaranteed national conditions of water resources than on uncertain water resources controlled by foreign countries which could change according to t‘he international and regional politics, and depend on Iraqi personnel on operation and maintenance of the system. 3. To protect and improve the environmental and social character istics of the area, and to meet the public health and safety requirements. 4. Stay within reasonable initial and operation cost. 5. To be reliable and flexible for instantaneous and long-term development and conditions. 6 . To protect the fisheries in the country. 7. To use the water for electrical power generation as secondary benefit. Alternative Systems. As mentioned in paragraph 7.2 in this chapter, three alternative systems will be considered: 1. The do nothing system. 2. The improved irrigation system. 3. The Haditha reservoir system. Evaluation Criteria. The criteria used to measure the effec tiveness of the system are classified as cost measures of effectiveness 159 and noncost measures of effectiveness. According to the special condi tions of the Euphrates River water resources system in Iraq, they are: 1. Cost measures criteria: a. Initial capital invested. b . Cost of relocation of settlement affected by the system. c . Cost of land and properties affected. d. Operational and maintenance costs. e. Cost of electrical power production. f. Capacity to store excess water. 2. Noncost measures criteria: a. Flood damage. b. Flow regulation capability. c. Social and environmental impacts. d. Health hazards to thepopulation. e. Safety of people. f. Water quality. g. Air pollution. h. Training and experience of employees. i. Reliability of operation, j. Public acceptance. Capabilities and Merits of the Alternative Systems. These are: 1. The do nothing system: The do nothing system, or the existing irrigation system, is currently capable of supplying the annual water requirement for most of the years. However, the system is not effective in controlling and distributing water to the fields for shorter periods of time (i.e.,days or weeks). The system also will have the capacity of providing the total annual water requirement for the year 2000, but it will not satisfy the water requirement for the irrigation schedule of individual fields due to the lack of a controlled distribution network and low technical standards. The system will not stop the salinization process of irrigated soils because it does not have a satisfactory drainage network. The system will not allow for further development of agriculture and increase of food production. Concerning flood protection, it protects against floods of 1 percent probability. There is no additional cost involved in the system except operation and maintenance cost which are relatively low. The water quality of the system is good, provided the Tharthar reservoir is operated carefully in accordance to the flow of Euphrates River- downstream of Ramadi. Power is totally generated by thermal stations. Iraq, as an oil-producing country with a vast reserve of oil, will have no shortages in power during the study period. The cost of power production by this system at the present time is 2 Fils/ 1 kwh. However, this cost is subject to change according to the change in oil prices. Air quality Is good at the present time, but in the future when more power will be required, thermal power stations might cause some deterioration in air quality. Fish life in the system is safe and not affected since the spawning area will remain unflooded or damaged. The residents of the Euphrates valley feel safe since there is no dam which might break and there is no danger of severe floods. The system will not help the economical development of the society because it will not provide self-sufficiency in agriculture. Consequently, the country will remain dependent on foreign countries for food importation. The improved irrigation system: This system has most of the characteristics of the previous one but it differs from the first alternative by the improved irrigation system. It will be capable of meeting the water requirement in the year 2000 for both average and dry years. It will also provide efficient utilization and distribution of 3 water among users. It reduces water losses by 7 km a year compared to the existing system, and hence it increases irri gation efficiency and crop production. The technical improvement of the irrigation and the drainage system will facilitate and enhance the operation and management, and provide a better control of the water resources and agricultural production. The system will help reduce the salinization rate and conserve the cultivated land. Iraq’s self-sufficiency in food produc tion can be met by this system, which strengthens the independ ence of the country. In addition to that, export of agricultural products to the neighboring countries could be achieved, which would help the economy of the country. This system requires education of the farmers and training of technicians, thus improv ing the social and economic conditions. The cost of establishing the system is high and it was difficult to estimate it, but the cost will be distributed during the period of development which will make the initial cost not very high. Power genera tion, fishery, air quality are similar to the first alternative. There will be improved flood protection due to more control on the river that this system can provide. Water quality in the river downstream will be better than the first system due to less return flow to the river and better management of drainage ■ water. This system will help the soil reclamation process through the application of the saved water for leaching by the drainage system. Hence, it will restore part of the abandoned cultivated land and result in an increase of the land suitable for cultivation. Safety feeling of people is high and health conditions will be improved due to education and availability of better quantity and quality of food. The acceptance of this system by society is naturally good. The Haditha reservoir system. This system is an enlargement of the second system. It consists of the components of the previous system, with the addition of the Haditha reservoir. Although Chapter 1 showed most of the advan tages and disadvantages of this system, a review of these criteria of effectiveness are made here for convenience. In addition to the initial cost of the improved irrigation system, the initial cost of the Haditha reservoir is 237 million 163 I.D. (according to revised estimates in 1977, but using still 1975 cost figures), which is quite a big investment, The bene fits of the system as evaluated by the designer is 368.6 million I.D. and the benefit-cost ratio is 1.47, which justifies the building of Haditha reservoir (Table 33). But reviewed econom ical analysis (Table 34) showed that the benefit-cost ratio is .71, which does not justify the construction of Haditha reservoir. The cost of hydropower production is estimated by the Organ ization of National Electricity in Iraq as 0.4 fils per 1 kwh, which is 25 percent of the cost of electrical power production by thermal stations. Maintenance cost and operation is expected to be high, due to the' karst development in the reservoir and dam area, which re quires continuous observations and cement grouting. The cost of relocation of the settlements flooded by Haditha reservoir and cost of land and trees is estimated at 24.0 million I.D. While the water storage capacity of this system is more than 3 the second system by 6.4 knv due to the Haditha reservoir, it will 3 increase water losses by an annual amount of 1.94 km through evap oration and seepage from-'Haditha reservoir (Al-Hadithi, 1976). 3 Hence, the water saved by this system is approximately 2 km annu ally less than the water saved by the second system. The system is designed to pass flood in the Euphrates at Haditha of probability .01 percent. Thus, this system provides better flood protection than the first and second ones. However, the system will flood permanently about 37,000 hectares of land, of which 5500 hectares 164 are cultivated land. Regulation of Euphrates River flow will be improved by this system since it has additional facilities to control the river flow through the turbines and outlets of the Haditha reservoir. Water quality of Euphrates River will be deteriorated during the first years of operation of Haditha reservoir due to dissolving of gypsum soil of the reservoir bed and evaporation, similar to the case of Tharthar reservoir. Jobs are created for foreigners, mostly Russians, Egyptians, Indians and Pakistanis. This may be beneficial because of the experience the Iraqis will get from them. But it is more un favorable to the local society of Haditha in particular. Already crises in housing, and sometimes in food,have occurred in the Haditha area. Problems increased and the peaceful social life is disturbed. The system will affect badly the fishery in the river due to flooding of the spawning area and blocking the fish passage by Haditha dam. The karst development in the area affects the feeling of safety of the people living downstream of the dam. Building Haditha reservoir uses a big part of the time of the Ministry of Irrigation and requires a big effort from the administrators and technicians, thus it will render the process of improving the existing irrigation system. Haditha reservoir will affect the river channel downstream of the reservoir. Due to trapping,of the sediments by the reservoir, degradation of the river bed downstream will occur which has many disadvantages - mainly affecting the intakes structures of irrigation and water supply system. Public acceptance of this system is not high. Systems-versus-criteria Array. In this step, the effectiveness of the alternative systems are compared with each other. The array ranks the criteria according to their importance in achieving the objective of the system. This step may be considered more or less a summary of the previous steps. The array is established for the year 2000 in Table 35. Sensitivity Analysis. Some of the uncertain factors may be re assigned different values and the system performance according to the i ■ new values may be evaluated. In the Euphrates system, the most uncer tain factors are: first, the releases from Tabqa Dam, which affect the three system alternatives. The first alternative (do nothing) will be affected more directly than the other two alternatives by the water releases from Tabqa, because it does not have adequate engineering structures and irrigation net work to operate the system in response to the random changes. In addition, in the dry years the do nothing system can’t meet the water requirement without a cooperative oper ation of the reservoirs in Turkey and Syria. The Haditha reservoir alternative also will be more affected by the Tabqa releases than the improved irrigation system alternative. Reasons for that are: first, the hydropower generation depends on the storage of Haditha reservoir, which in turn is dependent directly on the releases from Tabqa. Second, in dry years, when releases from Tabqa reservoir are low, power benefit from Haditha reservoir would be low since there will be no excess water for power generation. Thus, the second alternative Table 35 Matrix of System Capabilities versus Criteria, Alternative #2 Alternative #3 Euphrates-Habbaniyah- Euphrates-Habbaniyah- Alternative //I Tharthar (improved Tharthar-Haditha System Criteria (do nothing) irrigation system) (Haditha Reservoir) 1• Cost Criteria in Iraqi Dinars (I.D.) Capital Cost 0.0 C^ (unknown) 237,000,000+^ Operation and maintenance cost very low C^ (unknown) 2,607,000+C2 Cost of electric power generation in fils per one kwh 2.0 2.0 .4 Storage cost 0.0 0.0 66,000.00 2. Effectiveness criteria Flood damage low low very low Flow regulation capability low good very good System yield of water in average year in km 25.0 25.0 26.88 Annual water Re quirement (km ) 17.44 10.2 10.20 Table 35 Matrix of System Capabilities versus Criteria. — Continued. Alternative #2 Alternative #3 Euphrates-Habbaniyah- Euphrates-Habbaniyah- Alternative #1 Tharthar (improved Tharthar-Haditha System Criteria (do nothing) irrigation system) (Haditha Reservoir) Water conserved annually in addition to system #1 (km^) 0.0 7.0 5.06 Flood protection protect against protect against flood protect against flood of capacity flooding of 1% prob of .1% probability 0 .01% probability ability (Q=8000 m^/s) (Q = 10,650 nrVs) (Q = 13,500 m 3/s) Electric power flexible in flexible, in operation less flexible (depends generation capacity operation (depends (depends on oil availa on water level at reservoir) on oil availability bility and cost) and cost) Water quality good good good Effect on fishery no effect no effect unfavorable effect River bed will degrade down will degrade down will degrade downstream of Haditha morphology stream of Tabqa stream of Tabqa will degrade downstream of Tabqa Haditha reservoir will silt up. Effect on air little effect little effect less effect quality Relocation of no effect no effect 2800 families have to settlements be relocated (25,400 persons) Table 35 Matrix of System Capabilities versus Criteria. — Continued. Alternative #2 Alternative #3 Euphrates-Habbaniyah- Euphrates-Habbaniyah- Alternative #1 Tharthar (improved Tharthar-Haditha System Criteria (do nothing) irrigation system) (Haditha Reservoir) Land flooded by none none 148.000 donums of which the system 22.000 donums are cultivated areas Total annual water losses due to evaporation, 2.6 . 6 2.54 seepage (not including Tharthar reservoir Social stability and good good affected by existence safety of the local of workers, foreigners community Uncertainty in very little little high, due to the uncer volved in the tainty of Haditha reservoii system operation design Public acceptance low good low Education and training of workers and technician very low good very good Table 35 Matrix of System Capabilities versus Criteria. — Continued. Alternative #2 Alternative #3 c. Euphra tes-Habbaniyahr- Euphrates-Habbaniyah- Alternative //I Tharthar (improved Tharthar-Haditha System Criteria (do nothing) irrigation system) (Haditha Reservoir) System ability for not able very good Very good but takes providing self- longer time than sufficiency in food system #2 to achieve production self-sufficiency 170 is the system which can best tolerate the uncertainty of releases from Syria. The second factor is the seepage and evaporation losses through Haditha reservoir, which will reduce the effectiveness of the third al ternative. Other uncertainties are the capital, maintenance and operation costs of improving the irrigation system and the maintenance and operation cost of Haditha reservoir, which affect both the second and third alternatives; but the uncertainty involved is more in the third alternative. Overall, the second alternative is less affected by the changes of the Euphrates River system parameters and it is more reliable. Assumptions. It was assumed that the available data was correct. It was further assumed that Turkey and Syria will operate their reservoirs to satisfy their requirements only, since no valid agreement exists now. However, if an agreement could be reached, the advantage of the alterna tive system #2 will increase. The improvement of the existing irrigation system and agricultural practices will be common to systems #2 and #3; therefore, their cost and benefit will be similar for both the systems and no definite cost was assigned for it. Conclusion. By analyzing the effectiveness of the systems and using judgment, according to the criteria listed in the system-versus- criteria array, it was concluded that the effectiveness of the second al ternative is more than that of the first and third alternatives. The only benefit to be derived from the Haditha system is power generation— which does not compensate for the environmental and social impacts or the costs and risks of the project. This, together with the fact that the first alternative will not meet the goals and objectives of the future, leads 171 to the conclusion that the second alternative is more suitable than the others, and should be the one to be selected. 7.4 Optimal Utilization of Euphrates Water The optimal utilization of the water resources will be satisfied by: 1. Supply water for domestic and industrial use. 2. Supply water for the requirement of agriculture, to produce the necessary food for the population. 3. If, after supplying water for the two above items, there still exists an extra amount of water in the system, this excess water will be distributed among the crops, such that it will yield maximum benefits. The maximum benefit will be resulted from allocating the water to the crops of maximum net profit per unit area. Knowledge of water response functions (production function) is an important set of information needed in either private or public decision on optimal water programs (Hexem and Heady, 1978). However, the produc tion function is not well developed in Iraq. Only one value of the function is given for each crop, and it is assumed that this value represents the optimal value of the function according to the existing technology and various soil, environmental and management variables. The production function of the Euphrates River basin is of one variable input y = f y = crop yield per donum x = water applied in cubic meter per donum Production functions of agricultural crops are not determined yet in Iraq. Only one relation between quantity of water applied and crop yield per donum is known, which is essentially the consumptive use. Thus, the only other known variable which could affect the total yield is the area of cultivated land. Hence, it is assumed that the crop production varies linearly with the cultivated area. It is also assumed that the benefit of crop yield will have a linear relationship with crop production quantity regardless of the demand and supply situation in the market. Thus, it is assumed that a linear relationship exists between the cultivated area and the net profit for each crop, and a linear programming is used in optimization. Calculation of optimal utilization of Euphrates River system would be more accurate if the production function were well defined in cluding other variables effect such as fertilizers, plant population and rainfall. The general theory and methodology of linear programming (LP) were explained earlier in Chapter 2. The application of the LP method ology on the system of the Euphrates in Iraq is the following: The objective function: the objective is to maximize the net annual benefit from agriculture within the constraint of land and water resources and crop storage facilities. We will consider for optimization only the main crops, which are: wheat and barley, rice, vegetables, fruits, dates, cotton, oil seeds, sugar beet and fodder. Wheat and barley, oil seeds and sugar beet are classified as winter crops; 173 rice and cotton as summer crops; and dates and fruits9 fodder and vege tables as all year around crops. Values for profit and water requirement per donum shown in Tables 21 and 22 were used in the model below. The decision variables of the objective function will represent the cultivated area in donums of each of the crops above and will be assigned the following letters: Decision Variables Net Profit/Donum (areas in donums) (in I.D.)____ Area of wheat and barley 5.1 x i Area of rice = 48.9 X 2 Area of vegetables 60.0 X3 Area of dates and fruits 30.00 x4 Area of cotton = 13.3 X5 Area of oil seeds = 10.0 x 6 Area of sugar beet 37.0 X 7 Area of fodder 11.3 X8 The objective function is Maximize f(x) = 5.1 x^ 4- 48 .9 x 2 + 60.0 xg + 30.0 x + 13.3 Xj- + 10.0 + 37.0 Xy + 11.3 Xg Subject to the following constraints: 1. 1920 Xl 4- 8950 x 2 + 3220 x^ 4- 6280 x^ 4- 4900 x^ 4- 3600 x^ 9 4- 3740 Xy 4- 3000 Xg Z. 24 x 10 (Annual water quantity constraints) . 2. 1920 X- 4- 3220 x Q 4- 6280 x. 4- 3600 x, 4- 3740 x 7 4- 3000 x 0 1 3 4 o / o 6 ^ 11682.6 x 10 (winter constraints). 3. 8950 x2 + 3220 + 6280 x^ + 4900 x^ + 3000 xg 12317.4 x 106 (summer constraints). 174 4. + %2 + + x^ + + Xg 8,600,000 donums (total area constraints). Minimum and maximum area constraints: (donums) x. A 1,550,000. 1 A 222,000. X2 x3 A 530,000, Xg Z 800,000. -A 335,000. X4 139,000. X5 293,000. X6 — A 35,000. X7 A 600,000 , x 8 Z 900,000 X8 A linear program computer model (shown in Appendix A) was used to solve the above problem. The results showed that the maximum annual profit 260 million I.D. will be achieved from the following cropping pattern: Wheat and barley = 1,550,000 donums Rice = 222,000 donums Vegetables = 3,730,000 donums Dates and fruits = 535,000 donums Cotton = 139,000 donums Oil seeds = 293,000 donums Sugar beet = 350,000 donums Fodder = 600,000 donums Optimal total cultivated area 7,419,000 donums 175 It should be noted that the optimal result depends also on the net profit figures and their accuracy. Moreover9 the yield, and hence the revenue per donum, depends on other factors, such as fertilizers, better irrigation and agricultural practices. The model optimal result shows that only 7419 thousand donums of the total area suitable for cultivation (8600 thousand donums) could be used, due to water availability constraints. Thus, improving the irrigation system and the agricultural practices will increase the annual benefit. According to the optimal benefit obtained by this model the average annual benefit per donus is 35.0 I.D., which is 3 times the existing average annual benefits per donum. CHAPTER 8 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Based on the available data of land, water, industry and agricul ture, it was found that the Euphrates River annual flow to Iraq at the present time is sufficient to meet the water requirement for agriculture, domestic, and industrial uses. Land suitable for cultivation in the Euphrates basin in Iraq was also found sufficient for crop production to satisfy the current demands on food. However, some crop shortages, and even a water shortage, do occur from time to time. This leads to the conclusion that the water distribution in Iraq is inadequate in both space and time. The main reasons for the distribution problem are: first, the existing irrigation and water supply system, and water management and agricultural practices are not in good condition; second, the annual and monthly flow distribution of the Euphrates River does not coincide with the demand curves of water requirements due to lack of river flow control and/or improper reservoir and canal operations. Thus, improving the existing irrigation system is very essential to optimal water utilization. Soil salinity of the agricultural land located within the boundary of the irrigation network is a big problem, too. Although there is still suitable land for cultivation not being utilized, cultivation of new areas will be costly. In addition to the cost of extension of the irrigation and 176 177 . drainage system, social problems could result due to moving of settlements and conflicts of tribes. Thus, reclamation of salinized land and better water utilization is necessary to improve crop production. Hence, leaching of the soils and improving of the drainage networks is recommended. The plans in Turkey and Syria are to develop more agricultural and hydropower projects, which require more storage and more water with drawal from the Euphrates upstream of Iraq. Annual river flow to Iraq will decrease, both during filling periods of the reservoirs and in the long run (Fig. 23). Iraq experienced a severe shortage in irrigation water during the filling of Keban and Tabqa reservoirs in the years 1973-1975 (Fig. 24). Although accurate data are not available about the planned projects in Turkey and Syria, order of magnitude values were used in calculating the future water requirement in these countries. Calculations showed that after all developments in Turkey and Syria are completed, the net annual additional abstraction of water for irrigation and evaporation losses from 3 reservoirs will add up to 11.0 km . Accordingly, the average annual flow 3 of the Euphrates River to Iraq will be 17.67 km . It should be noted, however, that most or all of the foreseen additional water abstraction 3 (11 km ) was running to the Arabian Gulf without utilization in Iraq. About 3 5 km per year flow in the Euphrates River is used to create the necessary water level in the river to allow water to flow into the irrigation canals 3 by gravity. Almost 3 km of water is discharged to the sea; most of the transit discharge could be saved and utilized if convenient storage and flow control facilities, efficient irrigation system and good operation were available. 2 5 0 0 . Natural flow (’/924-/97r) r/oiv /or (/cor /9 78 calculated flout « l year2000 2 000 V) 1500 o I00O i___ i___ I ------500 r___i I A & J T M A M J 7 A MONTHS Fig. 23 Euphrates River Flow at Hit 179 Fig. 24. Drought of Euphrates River During the Filling of Keban and Tabqa Reservoir 1974. 180 Analysis showed that the upstream projects on the Euphrates River have both disadvantages and advantages to Iraq. The disadvantages are: reducing the annual flow of Euphrates to Iraq, deterioration of water quality, and the possibility that they may be used politically against Iraq, The quality of water flowing to Iraq will be deteriorated to some degree due to the increasing return flow from agricultural land. Return flow contains salts leached from the cultivated land which contains a lot of fertilizers. Soil reclamation projects in Syria and Turkey, as well as industrial projects, most likely will discharge their effluent into the Euphrates River. Gypsum deposits and other chemicals in the soil of the reservoir bed will be dissolved in the water released to Iraq. All these factors will affect the water quality of the river in the future. On the other hand, the advantages of the upstream projects to Iraq are: 1. Regulating the river flow, resulting in greater flow rate in the summer season than the flow rate in the natural conditions. This would result in increased summer crop productions in Iraq, and would overcome most of the shortages in irrigation water which usually occur in summer; it would also save Iraq the cost of building a reservoir or regulator having.equal effectiveness. 2. Reduced likelihood of floods to Iraq. 3 3. The storage in the reservoirs upstream (67.8 km ) will help Iraq during dry periods, particularly if a treaty is agreed upon between Turkey, Syria and Iraq. 4. Providing a strong incentive for improving the irrigation system and 181 agricultural practice in Iraq, such that water will be utilized more effectively. For the projected population in Iraq for the year 2000, and the goal of self-sufficiency in food production, calculations showed that the 3 annual water requirement ranges between 10.2 km if improved irrigation 3 system is constructed to 17.4 km if the existing irrigation system conditions remain. Release of Tabqa and Khabur river flows will yield an V 3 average of 17.67 km per year after the year 2000, which is in excess of water requirements in Iraq. Tharthar reservoir can contribute to the 3 Euphrates flow in Iraq by an average amount of 7.33 km per year through the Tharthar-Euphrates canal, within the constraints of water quality in the Tharthar reservoir and Euphrates River, and storage and releases from the Tigris River. Thus, the average annual amount of water available in 3 the Euphrates River is estimated as 25 km. , which is significantly higher than the annual water requirement. Also, it is concluded that there will be sufficient water in the Euphrates River in Iraq even if two consecu tive dry years do eventually occur. The government of Iraq decided to build a storage reservoir on the Euphrates River at Haditha. The decision was taken after a long study made by consultant companies and recommended by the Ministry of Irrigation in Iraq. Haditha reservoir, with an estimated cost of 237 million I.D., is designed mainly to supply water for irrigation and to generate electrical power. Benefit-cost analysis of Haditha reservoir made by Hydroproject Institute showed that the project is economically feasible and has a benefit-cost ratio of 1.47. The reservoir life was 182 also estimated by Hydroproject as 350 years. However, according to the latest available data it appears that the benefit of Haditha reservoir for irrigation will be negligible and the only benefit will be for hydro power generation. In the dissertation the economical analysis was re viewed and it was found that the benefit-cost ratio of Haditha reservoir is .7, almost half the value calculated by the consultants. Thus, the conclusion is that Haditha reservoir is not feasible even from the economic point of view. However, Haditha reservoir is included in the system alternatives since- its construction was started in 1979 and will , become a part of the Euphrates River system in Iraq. The development of water resources in Iraq should be carried out simultaneously with the development of land resources, irrigation system, agricultural practices and education. The development of water resources cannot be done separately; it is affected by the development in industry, national economy, engineering and other sciences. In addition to that, social customs, marketing and management also affect the water resources development and utilization. Increased benefits from water resources could be obtained by a multi-purpose development including power genera tion, navigation, fishery and recreation. However, in developing countries recreation is not considered important at the present time, because some of the more essential requirements for life, such as food and health, are as yet not satisfied. Three alternative systems of Euphrates River water resources in Iraq were compared for the purpose of selecting the system which provides optimal utilization of the water resources. They are: (1) do nothing; (2) the improved irrigation system; and (3) Haditha reservoir system. 183 According to the analysis of the alternative systems, based on their costs and effectiveness in meeting the objectives .of the system, the improved irrigation system was selected as the most effective feasible system for optimal utilization of Euphrates River water in Iraq. . No price is assigned to the water, since it is delivered free to the farmers everywhere in the country, and there are no plans to sell the water in the future. It was also difficult to assign a cost for im proving the existing irrigation system, because it requires detailed surveying, design and estimation, which is beyond the nature of this study. However, since the same cost is involved in both the second and third alternatives, it will have no effect in the evaluation of these two systems. The cost of the improved irrigation system is, however, important for a benefit-cost analysis. The main reasons for selecting the alterna tive #2 (improved irrigation system) are: 1. The do nothing system does not provide optimal utilization of the water resources due to the deficiency in water control, distribution and conservation. It cannot provide sufficient water for irrigation either on a regional basis or on a seasonal basis, and consequently will not meet the water requirement for domestic, agricultural and industrial use; thus, it was not selected. 2. The system of Haditha reservoir was notselected because of: a. The high capital cost of building the reservoir compared to the benefit (benefit-cost ratio less than one). b . The complicated geological condition of the reservoir area. 184 uncertainty in future development, and unclear sedimentation process and question of reservoir life. c . Social and environmental impact reasons. Settlements, vast agri cultural areas and fish-spawning grounds will be flooded, and the fish-harvest will decrease. d. Low effectiveness of the project on regulation of river flow for irrigation and flood control purposes since the river will be more or less regulated by reservoirs upstream. Habbaniyah reservoir and Tharthar canal will be sufficient for this purpose. The varied cost-effectiveness method was used in the analysis. The method is very applicable to systems where costs and benefits are not constants and difficult to determine. The decision of selecting the system was made considering costs, benefits, and effectiveness. The result of optimizing the Euphrates water resources in Iraq, as obtained using the linear programming model for allocation of land and water resources among the main crops, was very promising. It is con cluded that the irrigated area can be multiplied to three times as much in the present with the available water resources, and the average net benefit of one donum of the cultivated area could be made 3.5 times as high as the present. The following recommendations may help further development of the Euphrates system in Iraq: 1. The feasibility of Haditha project can be better evaluated after more data concerning the operation of upstream projects are available. 185 2o Priority should be given for design and construction of the improved irrigation system. Detailed study and analysis of the irrigation system should be started. Since complete improving of the irrigation system takes a long time, some steps should be taken immediately such that it will enhance the condition of crop yield and water utilization at the present time and it will fit in the further development of the water resources system. Estab lishment of applied research and experimental stations for agriculture and irrigation practice and establishment of active extension services accessible by the farmers should be initiated. 3. The connection of the Euphrates River to Tharthar reservoir should be studied. This will allow for joining the Tigris and Euphrates river system into one flexible system, Tharthar reser voir may be used as a flood protection measure for the Euphrates River beside the Tigris, particularly after the recently planned mosul and Bekhma reservoirs on the Tigris in Iraq have been completed. 4. Connecting the Tigris River to the Euphrates through a canal without passing through Tharthar reservoir should be studied. This will help supply the Euphrates with better quality water than the Tharthar reservoir water, 5. A study of the use of Abu-Dibbis reservoir for fishery or salt production should be initiated. 6 . Conjunctive use of surface and ground water should be considered seriously. Determination of ground water aquifer characteristics9 186 ground water quality and economy of production is recommended. Ground water, if used as complimentary to surface water, will be very helpful, particularly in dry years. Finally, to obtain optimal utilization of the Euphrates water system, the following recommendations are suggested: application of modern techniques in irrigation and agriculture to conserve water and increase yield, i.e., drip irrigation, sprinklers, use of fertilizer; education and training of people; establishment of agricultural re search and extension stations; manufacturing irrigation equipment locally; emphasis on maintenance of irrigation and drainage system; and use of system approach in planning and analysis based on scientific, social, economic and environmental studies. \ APPENDIX A . LINEAR PROGRAMMING USED FOR CALCULATION OF THE OPTIMAL UTILIZATION OF EUPHRATES RIVER WATER RESOURCES SYSTEM IN IRAQ. 187 188 LINE** PRLGFAiriNG USED FDR CALCULATION OF THE OFTJKAL UTILIZATION GF EUPHRATES RIVER WATER RESHURCES SYSTEM I n IRAQ. PROGRAM LFMC INPUT, OUTPUT, TAP£5 • I MROT, TAPE o-OUTPU'T ) C C LINEAR PROGRAMMING MCLEL C USES SUdRCUTINES- C 0 S A DUAL-SIMPLEX algorithm C ISP ?*VOT index selection under degeneracy C PI V PIVOT subroutine L SAL JIKRLcX ALGORITHM c COMMON A(25,BC),B(25) , JX(2S )#h,7F DIMENSION EE(6 ) , JU(20,2) DATA [ E/2HtC,2HGc,?HLE,^HMAXIMi:ED,9HMINIMIZEC,2h / 1 FORMAT(3 AID,212,Eb.0,2012) 2 FORMAT (27H1LINEAR PROGRAMMING PR CE L E M/I X , 3 A1D ) 3 FORMAT( /25H CONSTRAINT COEFFICIENTS-) 4 FORMAT(5E10.3) 5 FORMAT(/(4X, 1C( 1X,A2,E1C.3) ) ) b FORMAT(/3SH OBJECTIVE COEFFICIENTS ( Z-A*>*b TC dE , A9,? h )-/Z . ( 4X,1CE13.3) ) 7 FORMAT( Z22H DIFFERENCE VA p IABLES-/2C(1X, I 9,1X, I a / ) ) 6 fo rm at( Z15H STANDARD FORM-) 9 F GRMAT(Z1 4 ,10E13 .3Z( 4X,10E13.3 >) 10 FORMAT (Z27H PHASE I SIMPLEX ALGORITHM-// • 2 4 H INFEASI5ILITY FUNCTION-) 11 FORMAT(Z20H SOLUTIONS UNBOUNDED) 12 FURMAT(/21H SOLUTIONS INFEASIBLE) 13 FOR MAT(Z2BH PHASE II SIMPLEX ALGORITHM-) 14 FORPAT(/24H DUAL SIMPLEX ALGORITHM-) 15 FORMAT(Z10H SOLUTION-Z) 16 FORMAT(5X,2HX( , 1 2 , 3H ) »,E11.3) 17 F0RMAT(/5X,2HZ«»5X,E11.3) INPUTS- PR OBLEM DESCRIPTION 1 N p UTS - D A 3 0 1-30 PROBLEM TITLE OR DESCRIPTION M 12 31-32 NUMBER OF CONSTRAINT RELATIONS I UP1 TL 24) K 12 33-34 NUMBER OF DECISION VARIABLES (Ur TC 50) ZF E6.0 3 5 — 40 ZERO FACTOR FDR TESTING JU 20*12 41-90 INDICES OF VARIABLES UNPcSTRICTtD IN SIGN NOTE-THE LARGEST VALUES OF M AND N T ha T CAf Er INPUT WITHOUT CHANGING DIMENSIONS ARE LESS THAN 25 AND 50. WITH THE DIMENSION SPECIFIED, THIS PROGRAM CAN HANDLE A SYSTEM OF 25 EQUATIONS IN 50 DECISION VARIABLES, BuT THE 25 EQUATIONS MUST INCLUDE THE OBJECTIVE F UMCTi 2P AND, IF PHASE I IS USED, THE FEASIBILITY FUNCTION. Al 3( THE 50 VARIABLES MUST INCLUDE ANY DIFFERENCE VARIABLES ( ONE FOR EACH VARIABLE THAT If I'NR f * T p 1 C T E u IN SIGN) , SLACK VARIABLES I ONE FOR tACH INEQUALITY RELATION), AND, IF PHASE I IS TO BE USED, ARTIFICIAL V/PIAM FS (ONE FOR EACH CONSTRAINT cQUA I ION Tr.AT HAS NO CTt-ER FEASIBLE 3ACIC VARIABLE). -THE ZERO FACTOR IS USFC FOR TESTING QUANTITIES THAT MIGHT NOT GO TO ZERO EXACTLY BECAUSE OF ROUNLO)F. IF LEFT BLANK, A VALUE UF ZF • l. E - U IS < SSL MED. -JU IS A LIST OF THE INDICES OF THOSE DECISION VAFIAFLES 189 hCT REtiL'ISED TD BE N]N NEGATIVE. SYSTEM INPUTS- A N*i 1C.3 CONSTRAINT PP CfcjECTIVt FUNCTILN COEFFICIENT. E L IC .3 FCJALITT, INEQUALITY, M A > I M I 2 AT I ON , Mi NI M I 2 A T 10f- 1. FOR SUM(t * X ) .EC.P 2 . F PP 1»UM ( A * X ) . Gr . B 3. FOR 5UM(/» a ). l E.S a . F Ok m a xim izin g Sur.t a * x )*B 5. F OR MINIMIZING 5 U m(A * >)♦E e E10.3 c EOUiFEMENT 3K OBJECTIVE CONSTANT NOTE-EACH RELATION I HAS N CCEFFI Cl Eh TS A C ) , ONE RELATION INDICATOR i , AND ONE CONSTANT 8 (1 ). THE FIRST F RELATIONS AF E CONSTRAINTS OF THE FCkF SUM(J»1,N)(A(I,J )*X{J) ).E.B(I)« I«1» M -THE NEXT AND LAST RELATION 15 THE LE JFCTI VE FUNCTID' [F THE FORM Z»SUM(J«1,N)(A(I,J)*X(J))*B(T), I'M. + l -INPUTS FOR EACH NEW RELATION I START [N A Nc. CtAC AND ARE GIVEN CONSECUTIVELY, P TO A C A F 0, IN THE ORDER A C , J)( J»1,N), E, b C > USING AS Ma N'Y CARDS AS NEEDED. -THE SYSTEM IS PUT INTO STANDARD FOP* F Y THE PRCGW* •ITH AUTOMATIC ADDITION OF ANY NECESSARY DiFFERfNCE OF SLACK VARIABLES. -the PROCEDURE TO BE US EL lo SBLECTEu 9Y THE PROGRAM ON THE BASIS OF SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS iN[ IS NOT INPUT. -IF PHASE I IS SELECTED, NECESSAPY ARTIFICIAL VARIABLES APE ADD E n AND THE 7 NF E A S I 5 i L 1 T Y FUNCTION IS CONSTRUCTED BY THE PROGRAM (SEE PHaSc I, ST£P ] ) . REAL AND WRITE PROBLEM DESCRIRTIOF INPUTS- IOC READ (5,l)DI,D2,D3,M,N.ZF,(jU(J,l),v«l,2C) I F ( EOF(S)) 102,104 102 CALL EXIT ivA WRITE(fc,2)01,D2»D3 I F ( ZF .LE .0. ) ZF-l.E-lO ZF■ZF * *2 NN«N M Z ■ M ♦ 1 READ AND WRITE SYSTEM INF UTS- WRITE<6,3) I«C 110 I» I*1 J X( I ) «C READ (5,A>(A(I,J),J«l*N),E,3(i) K ■ E lKK.GT.3JGu TO 120 WR1TE(fr,5 ) ( EE(ft) , A( I , J ) , J«1,N),EE(K ) ,b( 1 ) ADD SLACK VARIABLES WH l?-E NEEDED- IF K ■ 1 # SUM( A»X ) . £ U.B ,NO SLACK VAf I A?.L E IF K«2, SUM (A*v ) .5F.B,SLACK VAkI ABLE NEGATIVE, C M A f. & E SIGNS IF K-3, SJM(A*x ) , l E.B,SLACK VARIABLEPOSITIVE 190 IF ( - 2 ) 110, 112,116 112 DC 14 J• 1 • N 114 4 ( I J ) • - A ( i , J ) 6 (: • - 3 i :) 116 NN • N + l J X ( ) sN-j DC It I 1 • 1 , MZ 11: A ( I , KN)«0. t ( I UN )«1. Gu C lie 12C k *' * c (o , 6 )::(K),(A(I,J),J.l,N),D(l) E ?FE:S VAk I 69L ES UN?tSTPICTED IN SIGN 4* L IFFERENCES 9E Tk£EK NON NEGATIVE VAFI ARLES- D J 22 uJ.1,20 J • J ( j J, 1 ) I F ( . L E. C ) 3 C T1 12 4 • i N * N+l JU ( J , 2 > »NN DU 22 11* 1, MZ A ( I ,NN)*— 122 C ON 1 ME 124 J J * J -1 IF ( J.GT.C)WF!TE(6,7) C JL’( J , l ) , JUl J ,2 ), J»l. JJ ) IF ( . tL.5)5u 7 D 124 DD 26 J• 1,N 126 M ( I J )» -A(I,J) GO r 130 126 d ( I • - B l I ) c A F C H F0= ADDITIONAL BASIC VAR1A5LES- t T TrE BASIC SYSTEM I n DIC a TCF jr,»0 IF ANY ELJAT10N M N Ba SIC- S T THE FEASIBILITY INDICAT3F f 6 * MOST NEGATIVE E( I )- 5 T THE OFTINALITY INDICATOR CM* N LSI NEGATIVE A < r. Z , J )- ITt THE SYSTRw i \ STANDARD FCRN- 130 jn . dr* . DC 3 6 I ■ 1 » N I F ( X ( I ) .GT.OIGO TC 13‘ DC 3 4 J • 1 ♦ N IF ( ( I , J ) . EC . 0 . )G0 TO 134 DC 31 I l - l , r z I F ( I .Ew.I)GC TO 131 I F ( (1 1 ,JJ.NE.O.JGw TO 134 131 CON INUE J X ( ) * J F ■ 1 / A ( I , J ) DC 3 2 J J • 1 , N 132 A ( I J J »« A ( I , JJ ) *F 9 ( I •E(I)*F GC : 135 134 CCN I ME j r . 13*> ir ( B( I ).LT.Br)3''1»P ( 1 ) 13d CGNTINUF 191 CM«C . DC 131 J"1,N IMA(P,Z,J).LT.CM)CM.A(KZ,J) IBP CONTINUE N ■ N 6 WP I TE( 6 , e ) DO 13= I"1,MZ IBS WPnE(6,9)JX(I),(A(I,J),J.l,N),EC) SELECT THE PRJCELU^E TO BE JSED- 1F THE SYSTEM IS NON BASIC (JP-OJ USE PHASE 1 /PHASE II IF THE SYSTEM IS BASIC AND FEASIBLE ( BM«D) USE PHASE II IF THE SYSTE^ IS BASIC# INFEASIBLE# 0 3 TI MAI (CM«0) USE THE DUAL SIMPLEX AlGCRITHf. IF THE SYSTEM IS BASIC# INFEASIBLE# AND NON OPTIMAL USE PHASE I/PHAS c I I METHOD IF ( JM.EC.OGL TO 140 IF(B m.EO.O)GC TO 170 IF(CK.EC.O)GC TO 160 PHASE I - NOTE - PHASE I IS INITIATED WlTh THE SYSTEM IN STANDARD FOR/ PHASE I# STtP 1- PUT SYSTEM INTO BASIC FEASIBLE FORM BY ADI ING A^T1 c *C a Al VARIABLES TO E 3UAI10N5 THAT HAVE Nu BASIC VAPIA u LE OP WHOSE CONSTANT TER" IS NEGATIVE ( PAS 1C VAPlAtcE AmFEASIBLE) CONSTRUCT THE INFEAS 13 ILITY FUNCTIPN- 1. F QP M THE SUM OF THO*' E ECUATI CN5 I * TnAT Ha v F AF TIF1C1 AL VARIABLES X A ( I * ) SUMt SUM(A(1*# J)*X( J )) ) ♦SUM(XA( I * ) ) -SUM( A ( I *) ) 2. FORM THE INFEASIEILITY FUNCTION W-SUM{ X A{ I * ) ) W— SUM ( SUvi( A ( I* , J )* X( J ) ) ) i-WO NOTE-B Y SUMMING OVER ONLY THOSE EOUATIOh'S I* WITH AF TIF I d AL VARIABLES. THE INFEASIBILITY FUNCTION CO^T a I n S NO cASIC VARIABLES OTHER THAN W SO TH/T WE HA vf: A BASIC FEASIBLE SY j Tc M IN WHICH THE FEASIBILITY FUNCTION CAN BE MINIMIZED BY THE SIMPLEX ALGORITHM. IF THE O k IGIN AL SYSTEM IS FEASIBLE, THE I NrEAS IB IL IT Y FUNCTION k WILL HAVE A MINIMUM VALUE OF ZFFO. 14C MK.MZ+l J X ( M K ) ■ 0 DO 1 42 J ■ 1 . N 142 A(MK,J)»0. B ( Mk)#0. ACL ARTIFICIAL VA»IABlE TO ANY ECUATION WlTh NEGATIVE P I.) ur WITH NON NEGATIVE B( I ) BUT kITH NO BASIC VArIABL E . DC 156 I ■1# M IF (B (I).LT.C.)G0 TO 146 IF(JX( I ) .EG.0)150»156 146 DO 14K J ■ 1 ,K 146 A ( 1 , J ) »-A( I # J ) B( I)«-P(I ) 150 N N ■ N N ♦ 1 J X{ I ) ■NN 192 30 152 II"1,M» 152 A( I 1 , NN) «0. 6 ( I, NM-1. DC 154 J «1 » K 154 A (KK,j )-A(Kk ,J)-A C 1 ,J ) 9(KK)«b(6K)-B(I) 15b CONTINUE W»IIE < 6 »10) W»ITE(b#5)(FE(6)»A(r<,J),J»l,NN),EE(6)>B(NK) E mA 5 E 1 * iTEp 2 — N1MK1ZE THE INFEAEi BILITY FUNCTION USING THE SIMPLEX ALGCK ITu NCTfc - THE SIMPLEX ALGOSTITh H IS ALWAYS INITIATE: WlTH THE SYSTt* IN BASIC FEASIBLE FCRK CALL S AL (MK,NN, KN) PHASE I» STED 3- ChFCK SYSTEM FOP. I NF = AS I B I L I T V ANJ REDUNDANCY Kn -O MEANi PIVOT TEAM NOT FQU n C (SOLUTIONS UNBOUNDET) B ( N.K ) . L T . 0 Me ASS iNFt ASIE1L1TY CANNOT BE Rc^CVED JX tD .G T.N AND A d , J ) .Lt.O> ALL J# MEAN E-LATIDi, I P EDUNE A I F ( KK.E3.1IGO TO 15 4 WRITE(6,11) GO TO ICC 158 IF(E(N n )**2.LT.ZF)G0 TO 160 WRITE(6»12) GC TC ICO C C DROP ARTIFICIAL VARIABLES (REMOVE REDUNDANT r uLATIOn S)- c 16C H - 0 DC 167 I • 1 »M IF(JX(I).LE.N)G u TC 164 DO 162 J * 1» N IF (A(I,J).LE.C.)GC TO 162 CALL F1V(KZ,N,I,J) SO TO 164 162 CONTINUE GO TC 167 164 11- 11*1 IFtll.EC.DGO TO 167 DO 16c J «1» N 166 a ( 11,J )- A ( I , J ) B ( 11 ) ■ B ( 1 ) J X ( I I ) ■ J X ( I ) 167 continue kp ■ r ♦ i M-l 1 rtZ«r>i IIP • II ♦ 1 IF ( rp.fc*.I IP )GO TO 16S DC let J • 1,N A( I 1P , j ) ■ A(NP,J) 166 CCNTINUE B ( IIP ) • BMP) J X ( H f ) - JX(PP) 160 CONTINUE C 193 c L PHASE II- C NCTE - PHASE II IS ALWAYS INITi a TED WITH THE SYSTEK C IN BASIC FEASIBLE FOPN 170 WRITE Ce#13) CALL SAL(MZ^ n . k k ) 1 F ( h K . EC . 1 ) t,D TO 2C0 WPITE(6 , 11) 3 0 TC ICO C *•**•*»»*****•♦***•***#*•*•*****•**•*»• C C DUAL SIMPLE* METH30- C NOTE - THE D'JALSIMPLEX METHOD IS APPLIED ONLY I J SYSTEMS C IN BASIC, iNhEASIBLE, BETTER THAN OPTIMAL F CP M C 1E0 WRITE(6,14) CALL CSA(MZ,N,KK) c C C OUTPUTS- C 200 WR ITE < 6 , 15) DC 202 J»1,N 2 02 A ( 1 , J ) » o . DC 204 I * 1,M J « J * ( I ) 2 04 A( 1 , J ) -B( I ) DC 206 J J»1,20 J « J V ( J J , 1 ) IF(J.LE.O)GC TD 20° L ■ JU( J J, 2 ) A ( 1 ,J )-A(1 ,J)-A (1 ,L ) 206 A ( 1, L ) • 0• 20b DO 210 J»1,N IF(A(1,J).NE.0.)WFITE(6,16)J,A(1,J) 210 CONTINUE IF ( K. E 5) S( MZ ) —3( MZ ) WRITE(6,17)B(MZ) GO TC 100 END SUBROUTINE DSA(L,N,K) 0 C DUAL-SIMPLEX ALGORITHM C NOTE - THE DUAL SIMPLE* ALGORITHM IS USED DM Y F OR BASIC, C OPTIMAL SYSTEMS TO REMOVE THE INF EAS I M l I Tt r AC GuMENTS- C L NUMBER UF P[WS IN SYSTEM CUsFF ICIE.4T MATRIX C N NUMBER OF COLUMNS IN SYSTEM. COEFFICIENT MATRIX C K BOUNDEDNESS INDICATOR C K-C NO PIVOT ELEMENT, SOLUTIONS UNBLvNO EC C K * 1 ALGORITHM COMPLETED C DIMENSION JK(25 ) COMMON A(25,5C),B(2S»#JX(2‘>),M,ZF 1C K» 1 C C F INC BM • MOST NEGATIVE B ( I ) C B M»0 . 194 0 2 12 II-1V IF(E(m.5E.Rr)G3 TO 12 I-I! 9M-E(I) 12 CONTINUE I F ( Br . E2.0. )RETU>N K-0 FINL C t ■ LEAST NEGATIVE VALUE LF A ( L . J ) / A ( I # J ) :VE« ALL wHEkE A(L,w) AC F THE COST COc FFJ ClENTj . CA»-1 . E♦20 Du 15 JJ«1»N I F ( A( I ,JJ >.GE.O.)G0 TC IF IF(CA-A(L#JJ)/A(I*JJ))1A,16*18 14 K«1 CA«A(L *JJ) /A(1*JJ) JK(K ) •JJ GO TO 16 lb K ■ K ♦ 1 JK(K ) «JJ 16 CON TIM E 1 F (K.EC.ORE TUR N IF( k . ct .1)JK(1)»I5D( k , j k ) J • jk ( 1 ) PIVOT ON POw I OF 3K AND CClL'K.N J DC CA. C al L p i v (l #n »I»J) GO TC IG END FUNCTION 1 SO (K, IK ) PIVOT INDEX SE l FCTICN UNDfc* DEGENERACY ISC IS CHOSEN P ANUOr.L Y FA Of K TIED VALUES STOPtD It. I k DIMENSION IK (25) DATA N / 3 5 7/ 10 N * N* ( 10* K♦3 t N»N-1G00*(N/1000) I • f. /1 C 0 I F ( I . EC.OIGO TC 10 I F ( I . GT.K)GC TC 10 I S D * 1 k (I ) A ETUPN END SUPPCUTINE F IV (L *N » I. J ) PIVCT SU9F0UTINE PIVOTS On ELEMENT 1 ,J OF L 9Y K MATRIX A KITH CORRESPONDING CHANGES IN S COMMON A<25#50)*B(2S),JX(2?>*"»2F 1 FORMAT(/7H PIVtI-I2,4H, J»13*2H)-) 2 FORMAT(/I4*10E13.3/t 4Y*10tl3.3)) F -l./i (I,J ) DO 10 JJ «1 » n 10 A (I,Ju )»F*m(I,JJ) B ( I ) »f*B( I ) . 00 20 11 ■1» L 195 I F (1 1 . EO . I ) GD TO 20 I c ( 6 ( 11,J ) . EL.C. )GL TO 20 F • 6 ( 11 »J ) DO 15 J J * 1» N AA»A(lJ»JJ)-i(l,JJ)*F IF(A A »*2.l T.A(II,JJ1**?»ZF)AA«0. 15 A( I 1 ,J J) «A6 3E-B(II)-B(!)* F i t lfcB**2.LT.BlII)**?*ZF)bBO. 3(11 )«E3 A( I I » J )»0. 20 CCNTlNuE JX(I ).J w « :te (6 » i ) i » j DO 25 I «1» L 25 WeiTE(6»?lJV(I)f(A(I,J),j«l,N),3(l) K ETUFN END 3U6R0l’TINE SAL (L,N,K ) SIMPLEX ALGOP ITHf' NOTE - The SIMPLEX ALGORITHM starts »ITH a system in b a s ic # FEASIBLE form AND OPTIMIZES THE OBJECTIVE FLNCT1CN APGUME NTS - L NUMBER OF ROWS I n SYSTEM COEFFICIENT MATRIX N NUMBER OF COLUMNS IN SYSTEM CuEFrlClE.il hA TP I X K UNBOUNDEDNESS INDICATOR K * C SOLuTIHNO UNBOUNDED K-l OPTIMUM SOLUTION REACHED DIMENSION IK (25 ) COMMON A(25,5C) ,&( 25 ), JX ( 25 ),M.,ZF 10 K«1 FINC CM * MOST NEGATIVE COST COtFFICIENT A(L»J) C M • C • DO 12 J J «1 * N IF(A(L»JJ).GE.CM)GO TO 12 j. j j C M • A ( L » J ) 12 CONTINUE I F ( CM..EO.O. JPFTUPN K ■ 0 FIND BA « LEAST POSITIVE VALUE OF RATIO B (I) /A (I,J > . 9A«1 .E420 DO 15 I1-1» m I K A ( I *, J) .LE.O. )50 TO IB IF (6 (1 1 )/ A d i , J )-S A) 14,16, IB 14 K» 1 B A .B d l ) /A( I I , J ) I K ( K ) ■ 11 GO TO 1? 16 Kbk *1 I < ( K ) ■ I I IE continue IF (K .c C.ORETURK IF( k .G T .1 )Ik (1)«IS D ( k ,I k ) I • I K ( I ) /7/e/9 < 7/6/9 r» r> n END ) 10 TO ,I,J GO ,K (L IV P CALL IC O SW OF SOW ON I PIVCT 31 N CLM J F CM. OF COLUMN AND J 196 APPENDIX B DEFINITION OF TERMS USED IN THE DISSERTATION Natural flow of Euphrates: The flow of the river for the recorded period prior to the diversions and storage projects that will occur upstream from the given point. In the dissertation it represents the recorded flow of the Euphrates at Hit before the year 1973. Mean Monthly discharge: Average of recorded monthly discharges of a ' 3 considered period in m /s (cumecs). Mean annual discharge: Average of recorded annual discharges of a con- 3 sidered period in m /s (cumecs). Monthly discharge; Average river flow of a given month in m /s (cumecs). 3 Annual discharge: Average river flow of a given year in m /s (cumecs). 9 3 3 Annual flow volume: Flow volume for a given year in 10 m (km ) . 3 9 3 Recorded flow: Measured discharge or flow volume in m /s or 10 m . Modified flow: Discharge or flow volume which is the result of human influence on the natural flow. The Euphrates modified flow is the flow for the period after completing Tabqa and Keban dams in Syria and Turkey at the year 1973. Return flow: That part of the diverted flow from the river which infiltrates into the ground either from canals or irrigated land, and returns back to the river. 197 Gross irrigation water requirement: Total quantity of water which has to be supplied to an irrigation area during a specified period (year or month) measured at the head of the main canal (the intake 3 3 from the river) of the area under consideration in m /s or km . Net irrigation water requirement: Quantity of irrigation water required at the field based on the consumptive use of the crops. It is equal to gross water requirement minus seepage and evaporation losses from the canals and irrigation system. Cultivated area: Area of land in donums or hectares which is in suitable condition for crop production and has been cultivated for a specific period. Area under irrigation: Part of the cultivated area which is actually irrigated by irrigation network for a considered period. Total area of the project: Territory within irrigation system boundaries, including irrigated and non irrigated lands, lakes, streams, buildings. Irrigation land stock: Irrigable land area within irrigation system boundaries. Gross Area of the project: Territory under agricultural crops, the irrigation of which is envisaged by the project. Evapotranspiration: The combination of evaporation from water surfaces, moist soil and transpiration from plants. It includes: transpiration losses and uses by plants, interception losses of precipitation caught by vegetation and evaporated, and direct evaporation from soil. Off-farm conveyance efficiency: The efficiency of the system that conveys the irrigation water from the diversion point to the boundary of the 199 using farm. It is equal to the amount of water reaching the boundary of the farm divided by the amount of water measured at the diversion point in a specific period. The losses of water include seepage losses, evaporation or transpiration by vegetation in or near the delivery channel. In cases where the water originates on the farm itself, such as from a well,/the off-farm conveyance efficiency is assumed to be 100 percent. On-farm efficiency: A combined efficiency that reflects the efficiency of the on-farm distribution system and the on-farm application system. The application efficiency is the ratio of the volume of water added to the root zone of a soil during irrigation to the total volume of water applied to that soil. System efficiency: The net (combined) efficiency of the entire irrigation system, from the diversion point to the crop root zone. It can be calculated by multiplication of the off-farm conveyance efficiency by the on-farm efficiency. Normal head water level (NHWL): The maximum desired water level in the reservoir at normal operation rules. Surcharge level: The maximum water level that can be tolerated by the dam; usually it is attained during flood periods. It is higher than the NHWL. 3 Reservoir live storage: Amount of water km in a reservoir which is usable for power generation; usually it is stored in the space above the turbine water intake level. 3 Reservoir dead storage: Amount of water km which is not usable in power 200 generation, but it could be used for other purposes such as irrigation. It is stored below the turbine intake level. 2 Donum: One Donum = One Mishara = 2,500 m . 2 Hectare: One Hectare = 4 Donums = 10,000 m . I.P.: Monetary unit in Iraq; one I.D. = $3.37777. Transit discharge: The volume of flow in the river required to raise water level in the river such that it becomes higher than the canal intake level and water flow by gravity into the canal to the irrigated field. The annual transit discharge of the Euphrates level is about 3 5 km at the existing condition. Should an improved irrigation system achieve the transit discharge it could be used for irrigation of extra land. ' Net water withdrawal: Equal to gross water requirement minus return flow. Rainfed area: Cultivated area, where the crops depend completely on rain for their growing; there is no irrigation system in such areas. Frequency curve: A frequency curve relates magnitude of a variable to frequency of occurence. Commonly they relate magnitudes to recurrence intervals. Recurrence interval: The average length of time between exceedences or non exceedences of a particular magnitude. It is also defined as the reciprocal of the probability of exceedence Flow duration curve: A cumulative frequency curve that shows' the percentage of time that specified discharges are equalled or exceeded. Bed load: Sediment particles moving essentially in contact with the fixed (or semi-fixed boundary). 201 Euphrates Basin Area: The area which topographically slopes toward the Euphrates River and is drained by the river. Part of the basin area where the precipitation is enough to contribute to Euphrates River flow is called the watershed area. Normal flow of the river: The natural flow of the river for an average year in the records. Suspended load: Sediment particles moving entirely surrounded and at essentially the velocity of the water. Sanitary releases: The amount of water released from a reservoir to attain minimum flow rate in the river such that thewater quality is convenient for domestic use and fishery life. APPENDIX C CHARACTERISTICS OF HADITHA RESERVOIR Table C-l Main Work Quantities: Figures Given in Thousand m . Power House and Description Dam Switchyard Total Excavation 4,283 Including: Soft soils 750 810 1,560 semi-solid rocks 1,550 74 1,624 Rocks 230 869 1,099 Fills 28,602 Including: Hydraulic filling of sand and gravel soils 14,000 - 14,000 Rock muck 2,686 246 2,932 Dolomite 7,560 - 7,560 Loam 785 - 785 Gravel and sand soil 2,946 - 2,946 Drainages and filters 145 4 149 Rock fill 225 5 230 Plain and reinforced concrete 430.5 , 1,016.5 1,447 Asphaltic concrete .110 - 110 Grout curtain Including: Right-bank one row. curtain 244 244 Dam curtain 383.5 - 383.5 Power house curtain - 8.0 8.0 Left-bank one row curtain 38.5 38.5 202 Table C-2 Principal Data of Haditha Reservoir. I. Natural Conditions 1. Climate Air temperature: Absolute maximum +51°C Absolute minimum -14°C Average annual *f22.6°C Precipitation: Average annual 112 mm Daily maximum 41 mm Average annual number of rainy days 31 days Average annual evaporation from the surface of reservoir on the Euphrates River 2,500 mm 2. Hydrology (Project Site) Catchment area 234,600 km2 Average annual natural runoff 30.0 km3 Average annual discharge under natural runoff conditions 948 m3/s Maximum water discharge into the Haditha project with reservoirs available upstream: P = 0.01% 13,500 m3/s P = 0.3% 9.360 m3/s P = 1% 8,000 m3/s P = 5% 6,180 m3/s P = 10% 5.360 m3/s Maximum discharge of water recorded at Hit (1885) 7,650 m 2/s Discharge recorded at Hit (1969) 7,390 m 3/s Minimum discharge recorded at Hi_t (August 1961) 94 m 3/s II. Storage Reservoir 1. Reservoir Storage Capacity at NHWL at Elevation 143/147 m Total 6.4/8.2 km Utilizable 6 .2/8.0 km LO v> Including: Live storage 4.0/5.8 km3 Reserve storage 2 .2 km^ 204 Table C- 2 Principal Data of Haditha Reservoir, continued. 2. Reservoir. Surface Area At NHWL 418.4 knu At normal drawdown 220.0 km At maximum drawdown 35.0 km2 3. Reservoir Overall Dimensions Length (along the river channel) 155 km Average width 4 km Average depth 17.0 m 4. Headwater Level Elevations Normal headwater level (NHWL) 143.0 m Maximum headwater level 147.0 m Forced at passing flood of p = 0.1% 147.5 m Forced at passing flood of p = 0.01% 150.2 m Level at normal drawdown, p = 90% 129.5 m Level of maximum drawdown 112.0 m 5. Tailwater Level Elevations Maximum during flood of p = 0.01% 109.15 m Maximum at hydroelectric station operating under full load 103.2 m Minimum, at release of sanitary discharge of 100 m^/sec 100.3 m 111. Water Power Indices 1. Heads Maximum net head 46.5 m Mean weighted, at net capacity 38.6 m Rated head (design head) 32.0 m Minimum at drawdown to elevation 129.5 (full station discharge capacity duty) 26.0 m 2. Annual Water Yield Normal annual: At level of 1985 14.0 knu At level of 1995 11.3 km Guaranteed probability 90%: At level of 1985 12.6 knu At level of 1995 10.0 km 205 Table C-2 Principal Data of Haditha Reservoir, continued. Annual Electric Power Output Normal annual: At level of 1985 1.68 milliards kWh At level of 1995 1.43 milliards kWh For a wet year: At level of 1985 3.19 milliards kWh At level of 1995 3.01 milliards kWh For a dry year: At level of 1985 0.82 milliards kWh At level of 1995 0.64 milliards kWh 4. Average Annual Number of Hours of Installed Capacity Utilization At level of 1985 2,950 hours At level of 1995 2,500 hours IV. Project Structures 1. Earthfill Dam Maximum height 56 m Crest elevation above MSL 154.0 m Crest width 20.0 m Total length 8,700 m Including: Right-bank part 3,184 m River-channel part 431 m Left-bank part 5,085 m 2. Hydroelectric Station Installed capacity 570 MW Number of power units 6 3 Total turbine discharge 339 x 6 = 2,034 m /sec Turbines: Type 60/642-B-650 Capacity 97,440 kW Runner diameter 6.5 m Rated rotational speed 100 rpm Discharge at rated capacity and head 339 nr/sec Generator Rated capacity 112,000/95,000 kVA/kW Voltage 13,800 V Frequency 50 Hz Power factor 0.85 Transformers Rated capacity 250,000 kVA Voltage 13.8/400 kV 205 Table 0 2 Principal Data of Haditha Reservoir, continued. 3. Surface Spillway Number of bays 6 Width of bay 16.0 m ^ Maximum waste water discharge 11,000 m /sec Head at the spillway 16.2 m 4. Bottom Water Outlet Number of openings 2 pos Size of opening 4 by 6 m Discharge at HWL at elevation 112.0 m 500 m^/sec 5. 400 kV and 132 kV Switchyard Overhead outlets from hydroelectric station to switchyard 400 kV , Switchyard ground elevation 110.0 m Switchyard dimensions 300 x 350 m V. Mean Monthly Firm Power of Haditha Hydroelectric Station (MW) Jan Feb Mar Apr, May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 67 67 70 70 75 80 85 95 90 80 75 70 207 Table C-3 Lithological Description at Proposed Dam Site (from Top to Bottom) Period Series Symbol Thickness Description in (m) uif) V) o h td- 10-15 Dolomite, Marls and Clay; hydrau 0) H Nleu3 lic conductivity 0.1 m/day* l | 0 $ Organogenous, Dolomite, Chalk •H 4-> m ! 20-25 "O Cti ieu2 like Limestone; hydraulic con 1 S ductivity 3.7 m/day*, 335 m/day §5 3 ty CD Dolomitized, Aphanitic, Organo f-i cd M 1 10-25 genous Limestone - Conglomerate- NleUl H Breccia; Hydraulic conductivity to 48.50 m/day* 3 Aphanatic - Fine - Crystalline - Pan 16-18 6 fragmental Limestone with layers 3 of Clay; hydraulic conductivity 0.3 m/day* cd 3 P b 25-35 Algal Dolomites with grain of 2-3 g Glauconite; hydraulic conductivity 6.3 m/day* Clayey Limestone and Marls f3bl * Measured values 208 Geological Characteristics of the Reservoir. The Haditha reservoir site is characterized with wide development of gently dipping Oligocene and Miocene sedimentary soils. The more prevailing Carbonate deposits characterized with significant lithological hetero geneity. This non-uniformity of soils, different degree of their dolomitization and karst development make the project area very complicated. The upper part of the geological section of the reservoir area consists of the Lower Ears series and the upper bench of the Euphrates series. These series are highly deformed due to ngypsum tectonics" (deformation caused by changing of rock volume when anhydrides turn into gypsum) and have folds with amplitudes of 10-30 m and numerous fractures. Below these series are the deposits of the middle and lower benches of the Euphrates series and are deformed only in some place and to a lesser degree than the overlying series. Quaternary Deposits. The Quaternary deposits are alluvial, forming the bottom of the Euphrates River Valley, and alluvial-talus deposits developed on the upland divides and on gentle slopes. Eolian sediments are encountered within the first above-floodplain terrace and floodplain as lenses of small thickness, and proluvium-talus sediments occur at wadi openings into the valley. Alluvial deposits are developed mainly within the floodplain (al Q^y) and the first terrace above- floodplain (al Qjjj)• The total thickness of the sediments does not exceed 10-12 m. 209 The sediments are loams, sands, and clays in the upper portion of the geological section; below there are sands and gravel-pebble rocks with sandy filler. At some places, loams are highly gypsiferous with 3 thicknesses of 2-3 m. The bulk density of the loams is 1.28-1.74 t/m , and the water content is normally 16.6-29.8% in January and February. 3 Sandy loams bulk density is 1.3 t/m and water content is 14%. (The above data for physical properties and those to follow are for individual samples taken during exploration.) Tertiary Deposits. Tertiary deposits which compose the slopes and bedrock bottom of the valley down to a depth of about 100 m below the river bed are divided into four series, referred to as Baba and Ana series (Oligocene epoch) and the Euphrates and Lower Ears series (Miocene epoch). In these deposits, eight benches can be distinguished from the viewpoint of their lithological stratigraphical characteristics (see Table C-3). Briefly, they are (from top downward): 2 1. Bench N^f^, Lower Ears series: Rocks of this bench are about 20 m thick, are considerably deformed due to "gypsum tectonics" and represented mainly by dolomite-calcareous marls and clays. The rocks are highly gypsiferous; individual concretions and gypsum intercalations, 2-3.cm thick, are encountered. Rocks of the bench may be classified mainly as dolomite calcareous marls, 3 with bulk density of 1.84-2.02 t/m , and water content of 25.6-30%. Bench N^f^> Lower Ears series: This bench, more than 15 m thick, is permeable and composed mainly of gypsum or anhydride with individual intercalations of limestone, clayey adomite and marl, 1-2 m thick. Rocks of this bench are intensively deformed and enveloped with gypsum karst. At some places, layers of gypsum and anhydride are broken into individual fragments ranging from a few centimeters up to 2 m and cemented with weak, marly material. 1 Bench N^eu^, Euphrates series: Rocks of this bench, 15-26 m thick, occur above the uneven surface of the Ana series. Breccia and conglomerate-breccia on calcareous-marly and dolomite- calcareous cement, frequently cavernous and karsted, are present near the bottom of the bench. These rocks are overlain with aphanite and organogenous-detritral limestone, intercalated with organogenous-detrital dolomites, sometimes very weak, turning into mud while drilling. Bulk density of the dolomites is 1.57- 3 2.29 t/m , water saturation 4.75-21.3%. Bulk density of con- 3 glomerate-breccia on calcareous marly cement is 1.91-2.69 t/m , water saturation is 0.8-10.9%. Bench N^eu^, Euphrates series: This bench, 20-25 m thick, is permeable and composed mainly of weak, mealy, organogenous- detrital dolomites turning into mud while drilling. In the middle portion of the bench, a "oolitic" key horizon is encountered, saturated with foraminifera. Bench N^eu^, Euphrates series: This bench, 15-25 m thick, is represented mainly with breccia and conglomerate-breccia with marly-clayey cement. Aphanite and fine-grained limestones, some times dolomitized and highly jointed, lie above. Rocks of this bench are considerably crumpled because of ngypsum tectonics.H 3 Dry bulk density of the dolomite fragments is 1.54-1.9 t/m and water content of 10-22.3%. The clay marl (serves as cement) has a dry bulk density of 1.72 t/rn^ and water content of 22.2%. 3 Bench f , Ana series: The Ana series, 15-20 m thick, is com posed of hard,' mainly aphanite and microcrystalline limestones with diverse fauna of gastropods, brachiopods, and corals. At some places, the limestone is highly cavernous. The cavities are frequently filled with greenish or brownish clay with lime stone fragments. Tests carried out on some samples showed the following properties: water content, 24.6-28%; dry bulk 3 density, 1.57-1.65 t/m ; and water saturation ratio, .99. Bench P^b^, Baba series: Rocks of this bench occur in the bottom of the section at a depth of 70-80 m below the river bed (40-50 m below the bottom elevation of the proposed dam struc ture) . Thickness of this bench is 10-15 m. The rocks consist of clayey limestones and dolomites with glauconititic granules inclusions and individual intercalations of clay and marl. Bulk density of tested dolomite samples in air dry state is 1.79- 3 3 ^ 2.16 t/m (tons/m ) and in water saturated state is 2.08- 212 2 8. Bench ^ ^ 2 - 3 5 series: The rocks of this bench (total thickness 30-40 m) include organogenous-detrital, foraminiferal and calcareous dolomites, macroporous and cavernous of diverse degree of preservation. Sometimes while crushing rocks, hydro gen sulfide smell is evident. Algal limestones and dolomites with average hardness and sometimes\ highly porous occur at the top of the bench. Considerable difference in indices of physical and mechanical properties of individual varieties of dolomites can be explained by diverse degree of preservation. According to tests and analysis of samples, it is possible to divide the bench dolomites into two categories: relatively preserved and weak ones. Bulk density of relatively preserved dolomites 3 ranges between 2.22 and 2.43 t/m Bulk density of weak 3 dolomite varieties ranges between 1.54 and 2.13 t/m . APPENDIX D LAURSEN PROCEDURE FOR CALCULATING SEDIMENT DISCHARGE IN THE EUPHRATES RIVER Laursen developed a relationship between stream flow condition (mean velocity, depth and slope) and sediment characteristics (mean size, frequency distribution, specific gravity, and shape), and rate of sediment transport. The computational procedure is based on the above relation ship which is represented by the following equation (Laursen, 1958)• C - P(V 6 G = mean concentration, 265 qg/q percent by weight. P = fraction of bed material of diameter d. d = diameter of sediment particles (mean diameter of fraction P of bed material), ft. X = depth of flow, ft. To = boundary shear associated with sediment particles. = critical tractive force for beginning of sediment movement, Te = boundary shear or tractive force, at stream bed. P = density of water, , lb sec^/ft^. w = fall velocity of sediment particles, fps and - 2 1/3 , X7 i • ^ S, T V d • where V = mean velocity, — T= - 3oyi/3 x, o 213 214 q = rate of flow per unit width, V > , dfs/ft. and ^ = cd where c is coefficient relating critical tractive force to sediment size and it is assumed = 4 in this calculation. and T - > ' X S 3 * = Specific weight of water, lb/ft s = Energy gradient ft/ft and the fall velocity may be determined using Stokes Law 2 _ 4 gd (tfs-'tf) 5 S g = acceleration of gravity = drag coefficient = Specific weight of the sphere Amount of sediment rates in the Euphrates River at Haditha, obtained by using Laursen Formula, were very close to the actual sediment rate measured by Hydroproject Institute at Deir ez zor in Syria. To find the Haditha reservoir life, a curve relating sediment discharge to Euphrates River discharge was developed. The curve was developed depend ing on both calculated data obtained by Laursen1s procedure and from average observed data in Deir ez Zor, Syria. Using the curve,calculations showed that for the average year flow after building of reservoirs in Turkey and Syria, the annual sediment volume discharge by the Euphrates 3 River at Haditha will be about 69,866,284 m . Knowing that Haditha 3 reservoir capacity is 6.4 km , and assuming the trap efficiency of the reservoir is 100 percent, then the reservoir life will be 92 years. And 3 the reserve storage (2.2 km ) will be filled completely in 32 years. Calculations also have been made for a year of 1 percent probable flood, similar to year 1969. The result was that 25 percent of the reserved storage will be filled in one year and 10 percent of the reservoir capacity will be filled also if river flow occurred similar to the year Table D-l. Grain-Size Distribution of Bed Deposits of the Euphrates River At Haditha Project Site. Grain Size Distribution in Percent by Weight, Point of Diameter of Deposited Particles, _ mm.______Sampling 10 10-5 5-2 2-1 1-0.5 0.5-.25 0.25-.1 <.1 105 m 46.9 17.6 9.2 1.2 0.2 2.1 20.0 2.8 135 m 13.1 2.1 1.4 0.3 0.4 1.3 59.1 22.3 175 m 78.5 3.3 . 3.5 0.6 0.2 3.3 13.4 2.2 \ 210 m rocks 250 m 29.0 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 2.6 53.4 12.8 270 m rocks 0.1 0.1 7.0 89.8 3.0 300 m 6.8 26.4 16.2 2.2 1.5 9.9 31.7 5.3 370 m 53.4 24.1 11.9 3.0 0.7 1.8 4.0 1.1 410 m 83.5 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.3 ■ 1.1 6.1 1.9 216 \ 217 Table D-2 Average Grain Size Distribution of Sediment Runoff Samples Taken at Haditha Dam Site 1974, 1975, 1976. Diameter of Particles Content (mm) Percent 1-0.5 0.06 0.5-0.25 1.19 0.25-0.1 9.60 0.1-0.05 16.05 0.05-0.01 36.56 0.01-0.005 13.51 0.005-0.001 23.03 10000 6000 2000 600 o measured at Deir ez Zor a calculated using Laursen's procedure______200 100 100 1000 10000 100000 SEDIMENT DISCHARGE IN KG VS. M Fig. D-l Relation Curve of Sediment Discharge and Euphrates River Flow. oo 219 Table D-3 Sediment Discharges of Euphrates River at Iraq if Flood Similar to that of 1969 Occurred. Sediment Total Sediment River Flow Discharge Total Sediment Volume 3, 3 m /s kg/s kg m J 2448 19,000 49,248 X 106 43.853,962 F 1697 9,000 23,328 X io6 20,772,929 M 2732 24,000 62,208 X io6 55,394,479 A 4589 66,000 17,072 X 106 152,334,817 M 5460 90,000 233,280 X io6 207,729,296 J 2307 17,000 44,064 X io6 39,237,756 V 968 2,800 7257.6 X io6 6,462,689 A 535 820 2125.4 X io6 1,892,644 S 488 690 1788.4 X io6 1,592,591 0 557 900 2332.8 X io6 2,077,292 N 725 1,550 4017.6 X io6 3,577,560 D 1586 7,500 19,440 X io6 17,310,774 Total annual sediment volume 552,236,789 m 220 Table D-4 Calculated Monthly and Annual Sediment Discharge of Euphrates River at Haditha* Using Euphrates Average Flow to Iraq in Year 1978. River flow Sediment Total Sediment Sediment 3 m 3 /s / discharge kg/s in (kg) Volume m Jan 728 1580 4095.4 X 10° 3,646,803 Feb 706 1500 3888.0 X io6 3,462,155 r-t o Mar 1230 4600 11923.2 X 10,617,275 Apr 882 2300 5961.6 X Id6 5,308,638 May 1540 7200 18662.4 X io6 16,618,343 Jun 1450 6400 16588.8 X io6 14,771,861 Jul ' 563 920 2384.6 X 106 2,123,455 Aug 535 800 2073.6 X io6 1,846,482 Sep 629 1150 2980.8 X io6 2,654,318 Oct 594 1050 2721.6 X io6 2,423,508 Nov 644 1220 3162.2 X io6 2,815,886 Dec 723 1550 4017.6 X io6 3,577,560 3 Total Annual Sediment Volume 69,866,284 m /yr. 221 Sample of calculations for sediment discharge at Euphrates River with mean monthly flow; 3 Q = 2499 m /s Average width of the river = 300 m Average depth = 5 m (16.4 ft) 0 2499 3 Average velocity V = — = 3Q0x 5 == *(5.46 ft/s) Average slope S = .0002 Assume the average velocity is the same along the whole width of the river channel, then sediment discharge is calculated with respect to different diameter of the bed material as follows, using the equations on pages 213-214 of Appendix D. d = 10 mm ( .03 ft) P = 39.4% yc = 16.4 ft, V = 5.46 ft/s S = .0002 2 1/3 f = 5.46)Z (.03) = c. i/3 30(16.40) Z T = 4x.03 = .12 - -1 ■ n f - 1 - 0-° C hence ^-1=0, C for particles with diameter of .03 ft will be zero also, and no sediment of this size will move with this river discharge. d = 5 mm (.016 ft) P = 17.6% f ,(5.46)2 (.016)1/3 009 30 (16.40)i/J "^ = 4x.016 = .064 222 ■ 009 - -1 - 1 = .547 r ■ 064 c \ = 62.4 x 16.40 x .0002 = .205 2._ 4 p = - sec /ft '2:2 - 1- « 8 ib w = 1.64 ft/s. v7^ .205/1.938 2 w 1.64 : '/VP , 5000 f w m , 7/6 C = .547) 5000 = .148 *176 ( Similar results iobtained are shown below*. Particle Percent v/roVy° ■ S v r diameter (mm) by weight C w (d) (p%) fc 10 39.4 0 -- 0 5 17.6 .547 .20 5,000 .148 2 7 1.679 ,325 10,000 .138 1 1 3.833 .65 20,000 .033 .5 4 4.7625 1.25 30,000 .1552 .1 21 21.48 14.14 60,000 .8 .05 10 32.45 32.52 100,000 .46 2 E , 1.73 . 1.73 x 89.54 q0s —_ 58 cfs/ft 265 ~ * 223 Qg = .58(300)(3.28) = 575.19 ft3/s. (16.3 m 3/s) Qg = 16.3 m 3/s = 18400 kg/s. 3 Calculated Total Volume of Sediment for the month = 43,658,249 m „ 3 Observed Total Volume of Sediment for the month = 47,705,412 tn . APPENDIX E NATURAL FLOW OF EUPHRATES RIVER IN IRAQ AT HIT AND PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS OF FLOODS AND DROUGHTS. 224 3 Table E-l Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Water Discharges (m /s of the Euphrates River at Hit. YEARS ANNUAL Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul. Aug Sep 1924-25 261 299 713 369 309 650 1014 1117 829 555 255 212 549 1925-26 229 288 488 714 737 1086 2296 2344 1416 646 357 270 906 1926-27 256 374 375 344 356 507 1284 1506 729 354 260 222 V 547 1927-28 231 266 ' 264 291 388 543 1951 1718 651 345 241 230 593 1928-29 227 277 587 507 710 885 2198 3358 1758 712 460 337 1001 1929-30 346 334 435 335 342 344 481 533 249 - 268 202 283 338 1930-31 225 265 367 568 605 798 1794 1898 1367 635 355 278 . 763 1931-32 303 308 350 343 350 750 1270 1620 834 375 242 213 580 1932-33 232 250 270 275 313 481 501 1600 1110 443 236 215 495 1933-34 209 231 317 398 448 687 1530 1270 930 413 306 242 582 1934-35 236 341 268 681 885 1260 2560 2330 939 528 397 350 889 1935-36 356 747 1310 879 1140 1290 2250 2530 1630 811 519 331 1140 1936-37 321 382 757 525 620 1070 2080 1800 1090 558 343 275 819 1937-38 291 679 1090 1130 971 966 2220 3200 1450 778 461 355 1130 1938-39 359 491 528 731 761 1120 2000 2530 1230 685 452 375 939 1939-40 352 395 586 1010 1080 1260 3060 2950 1330 700 418 343 1120 1940-41 407 708 908 922 1300 2700 2700 2420 1040 549 303 321 1190 1941-42 341 417 390 603 821 1200 2640 3030 1190 451 281 238 969 1942-43 329 919 1210 1220 979 990 2350 2990 1190 573 376 309 1120 225 1943-44 330 483 485 666 754 1650 2250 3210 1400 622 394 359 1050 Table E-l, Continued YEARS ANNUAL Get Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1944-45 379 634 513 904 726 847 1670 2120 1420 630 358 290 874 1945-46 304 371 574 580 656 1130 2160 3100 1660 765 463 376 1015 1946-47 591 612 473 870 . 900 1560 2080 1140 745 449 301 261 830 1947-48 281 549 575 554 1160 919 2560 3560 1950 749 408 349 1130 1948-49 356 368 495 407 542 585 1670 2200 1120 47-2 319 273 734 1949-50 283 311 355 448 354 1010 1970 2520 1130 494 311 264 789 1950-51 315 401 373 554 503 764 1870 1580 836 371 246 226 670 1951-52 399 471 576 451 1270 1140 2940 2350 1160 558 334 281 991 1952-53 308 343 416 537 1030 1310 3010 3110. 1660 712 397 341 1100 1953-54 359 483 478 644 890 1630 3820 3380 1670 761 423 336 1240 1954-55 373 508 617 1090 706 899 1410 1720 777 340 - 228 228 742 1955-56 284 318 521 751 819 988 1750 2730 1230 558 314 269 877 1956-57 328 370 402 362 441 1580 1640 2690 1520 588 293 238 874 1957-58 300 417 649 679 644 1080 1820 1560 1140 414 219 196 760 1958-59 307 373 495 502 474 664 1672 1513 1029 364 209 194 650 1959-60 290 390 360 881 607 1298 2684 2766 1177 522 303 253 961 1960-61 355 418 412 494 571 466 1338 1209 475 197 94 99 510 1961-62 191 377 905 694 979 1338 1835 1454 883 298 153 317 785 1962-63 248 297 491 851 1300 1365 2585 4368 2819 931 422 311 1332 1963-64 451 630 505 398 468 1218 2621 1597 1075 373 168 172 806 226 Table E-l, Continued YEARS ANNUAL Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1964-65 291 333 603 467 841 1210 2120 2245 1210 483 256 218 855 1965-66 408 513 652 1194 2118 1514 2241 2649 1451 583 325 304 1155 1966-67 534 634 849 988 968 1281 2787 4920 2199 999 491 408 1424 1967-68 644 1091 1259 1319 1263 2376 3794 4185 2271 956 495 467 1677 1968-69 557 725 1586 2448 1697 2732 4589 5460 2307 968 535 488 2011 1969-70 526 567 569 641 761 1122 1786 1114 602 249 147 165 595 1970-71 297 332 582 386 350 830 2522 1717 1027 402 249 254 . 746 1971-72 376 413 516 406 401 700 1495 2319 1367 511 229 243 809 1972-73 330 461 414 317 337 595 1130 1280 608 192 81 89 526 N> KD 228 Table E-2 Recorded Annual Flood Data of Euphrates River at Hit - Iraq (1924-197 2), Used in the Calculation of Extreme Floods by Gumbel Method. Peak flow 3 tp (yr) YEAR m / s x-x (x-x) 2 ID m + l/m 1969 7390 1 51 3815 14554225 1968 6654 2 25.50 3079 9480241 1967 6072 3 17.00 2497 6235009 1929 4980 4 12.75 1405 1974025 1963 4816 5 10.20 1241 1540081 1972 4810 6 8.50 1235 1525225 1954 4730 7 7.29 1155 1334025 1948 4670 8 6.38 1095 1199025 1940 4660 9 5.67 1085 1177225 1952 4610 10 5.10 1035 1071225 1953 4540 11 4.64 965 931225 1944 4530 12 4.25 955 912025 1938 4500 13 3.92 925 855625 1966 4484 14 3.64 909 826281 1971 4435 15 3.40 860 739600 1956 4430 16 3.19 855 731025 1957 4420 17 3.50 845 714025 1941 4220 18 2.83 645 416025 1960 4080 19 2.68 505 255025 1942 4040 20 2.55 465 216225 1943 3900 21 2.43 325 105625 1939 3850 22 2.32 • 275 75625 1946 3750 23 2.22 175 30625 1950 3690 24 2.13 115 13225 1931 3630 25 2.04 55 3025 1964 3548 26 1.96 -27 729 1936 3450 27 1.89 -125 15625 1965 3422 28 1.82 -153 23409 1926 3320 29 1.76 -252 65025 1937 3320 30 1.70 -255 65025 1928 3240 31 1.65 -335 112225 1935 3200 32 1.59 -375 140625 1949 2950 33 1.55 -625 390625 1947 2900 34 1.50 -675 455625 1959 2770 35 1.46 -805 648025 1955 2600 36 1.42 -975 950625 1970 2550 37 1.38 -1025 1050625 1945 2510 38 1.34 -1065 1134225 1958 2480 39 ' 1.31 -1095 1199025 1951 2470 40 1.28 -1105 1221025 229 Table E-2, Continued Peak flow tp (yr) 3, YEAR m / s m m + 1/m x-x (x-x 2) 1962 2224 41 1.24 -1351 1825201 1933 2170 42 1.21 -1405 1974025 1924 2120 43 1.19 -1455 2117025 1973 2055 44 1.16 -1520 2310400 1929 1850 45 1.13 -1725 2975625 1925 1750 46 1.11 -1825 3330625 1961 1732 47 1.09 -1843 3396649 1934 1730 48 1.06 -1845 3404025 1932 1630 49 1.04 -1945 3783025 1930 850 50 1.02 -2725 7425625 Average X=3575 81856216 S = '/ Z C x “ X f / N -1 = 1292.49 PEAK F/OW //V A f J/s . 2000 IOOO qooo 6OO0 1000 3ooo 4000 ■ 4000 I 01 i. - Gme Feuny uv fr xrm nul los f uhae Rvr atHit. River Euphrates of Floods Annual Extreme for Curve Frequency Gumbel E-lFig. oo o 0° o RECURRENCEINTERVAL IN YEARS 4 8 O 20 lO 8 « 4 z > o oo o o o oo 40 200 230 231 From Fig. E-2 in the Appendix the following flood probabilities are concluded: 100 year flood = 8100 nfVs 200 year flood = 8800 m^/s To find flood of larger return periods that are not included in the Gumbel frequency curve (Fig. E-2), the equation of the straight line of Gumbel frequency curve, type 1 extreme value distribution is used. >/cx Y = Lrx T U = x'- Y n /cx1 = S/ n" \ Where U is the mode,— is a scale parameter, X is the sample mean and S is the standard deviation, and Y^ and cr^ are functions of N, the number of items in the sample. Value of V and cr for N from 8 to 1000 are N N tabulated by Gumbel (1958, p. 228) and is given here. Using the above equations, the following probability of flood in the Euphrates River at Hit in the natural conditions are obtained: 500 year flood = 9,362 rn^/s 1000 year flood = 10,025 rn^/s 10P00 year flood = 12,274 rn^/s Table E-3 Means and Standard Deviation of Reduced Extremes (Gumbel, 1958) u ~ N V A/ N N 8 .4843 .9043 45 .5463 1.15185 9 .4902 .9283 46 .5468 1.1538 10 .4952 .9497 47 .5473 1.1557 11 .4996 .9676 48 .5477 1.1574 12 .5035 .9833 49 ' .5481 1.1590 13 .5070 .9972 50 .54854 1.16066 14 .5100 1.0095 55 .5504 1.1681 15 .5128 1.02057 60 .55208 1.17467 16 .5157 1.0316 70 .55477 1.18536 17 .5181 1.0411 80 .55688 1.19382 18 .5202 1.0493 90 .55860 1.20073 19 .5220 1.0566 100 .56002 1.20649 20 .52355 1.06283 200 .56715 1.23598 21 .5252 1.0696 300 .56993 1.24786 22 .5268 1.0754 400 .57144 1.25450 23 .5283 1.0811 500 .57240 1.25880 24 .5296 1.0864 750 .57377 1.26506 25 .53086 1.09145 1000 .57450 1.26851 26 .5320 1.0961 27 .5332 1.1004 28 .5343 1.1047 . 29 .5353 1.1096 80 .53622 1.11238 31 .5371 1.1159 32 .5380 1.1193 33 .5388 1.1226 34 .5396 1.1255 35 .54034 1.12847 36 .5410 1.1313 37 .5418 1.1339 38 .5424 1.1363 39 .5430 1.1388 40 .54362 1.14132 41 .5442 1.1436 42 .5448 1.1458 43 .5453 1.1480 44 .5458 1.1499 233 Table E-4 Mean Annual Flow of Euphrates River at Hit (1925-1972) Used in Calculation of Probability of Mean Annual Flow. YEAR m Flow tp P ^ (ill/s) (N+l)/m 1920 1 356 48.0 .02 1933 2 516 24.0 .04 1927 3 525 16.0 .06 1932 4 555 12.0 ,09 1961 5 582 9.6 .10 1970 6 595 ; 8.0 .13 1934 7 846 6.8 .15 1928 8 664 6.0 .17 1959 9 680 5.3 .19 1955 10 691 4.8 .21 1949 11 700 4.4 .23 1958 12 715 4.0 .25 1972 13 728 3.7 .27 1931 14 731 3.4 .29 1951 15 751 3.2 .31 1971 16 758 3.0 .33 1962 17 784 2.8 .35 1947 18 802 2.7 .38 1964 19 811 2.5 .40 1956 20 814 2.4 .42 1945 21 818 2.3 .44 1950 22 822 2.2 .46 1926 23 845 2.1 .48 1957 24 939 2.0 .50 1960 25 939 1.9 .52 1937 26 947 1.85 .54 1952 27 947 1.78 .56 1943. 28 958 1.71 .58 1929 29 961 1.66 .60 1939 30 984 1.60 .63 1940 31 999 1.55 .65 1938 32 1026 1.50 .67 1965 33 1044 1.45 .69 1941 34 1052 1.41 .71 1948 35 1057 1.37 .73 1935 36 1057 1.33 . .75 1960 37 1087 1.30 .77 1944 38 1089 1.26 .79 1946 39 1092 1.23 .81 1953 40 1115 1.20 .83 1942 41 1142 1.17 .85 234 Table E-4, Continued YEAR m Flow tp P Z 1940 42 1190 1.14 .87 1962 43 1272 1.12 .90 1954 44 1277 1.09 .92 1967 45 1556 1.07 .94 1969 46 1664 ' 1.04 .96 1968 47 1797 1.02 .98 From Figure E-2 we conclude the following: 1. Probability of having flow in Euphrates River equal or exceed the recorded average flow (931 m 7s)is 51 percent. 2. Probability of river flow equal or exceed the water requirement 3 in year 2000 (317 m /s) is 97.5 percent. 3. Probability of annual flow similar to year 1969 is 0.5 percent. From Figure E-3 we conclude the following: 3 1. Probability of having a flow 150 m /s or more, as required by Sanitary conditions is 93 percent. 3 2. The 100 year minimum mean monthly flow = 90 m /s. o 3. The 200 year minimum mean monthly flow = 8 0 'm /s. PERCENT EQUAL OR GREATER 100 i. - Feuny uv o enAna Flow Annual Mean of Curve Frequency E-2 Fig. ZOO o o 5 of Euphrates River at Hit. at River Euphrates of 700 AVERAGE F/OH rn'/s 900 oo I to 900 0 /9 235 236 Table E-5 Minimum Monthly Flows of Euphrates River at Hit and Their Return Period. Q Q 3, 3. YEAR m 1/P m /s YEAR m 1/P m / s 1973 1 50 81 1952 32 1.56 281 1961 2 25 94 1948 33 1.52 281 1970 3 16.7 150 1945 34 1.47 290 1962 4 12.5 153 1938 35 1.43 291 1964 5 10 162 1929 36 1.39 298 1925 6 8.3 .177 1941 37 1.35 303 1959 7 7.1 194 1946 38 1.32 304 1958 8 6.3 196 1966 39 1.28 304 1927 9 5.6 196 1953 40 1.25 308 1930 10 5 201 1943 41 1.22 309 1928 11 4.6 208 1944 42 1.19 330 1934 12 4.2 209 1936 43 1.16 331 1932 13 3.9 213 1954 44 1.14 336 1933 14 3.6 215 1940 45 1.11 343 1965 15 3.3 21.8 1939 46 1.09 359 1972 16 3.1 224 1969 47 1.05 404 1951 17 29 226 1967 48 1.04 408 1926 18 2.8 228 1968 49 1.02 453 1955 19 2.6 228 1935 20 2.5 236 1942 21 2.4 238 1957 22 2.3 238 1931 23 2.2 240 1963 24 2.1 248 1971 25 2. 251 1960 26 1.92 253 1947 27 1.85 261 1950 28 1.79 264 1956 29 1.72 269 1949 30 1.67 273 1937 31 1.61 275 MINIMUM ME Ah! MONTHLY FlOW IN m / s 200 20 40 i-ei i. - Feuny uv o iiu enMnhy Flow Monthly Mean ofMinimum Curve Frequency E-3 Fig. REZ'JRRt.NCB. INTERVAL IN REZ'JRRt.NCB. INTERVAL of Euphrates River at Hit. at River Euphrates of 2 4 6 YEARS 10 C 0 50 40 JC 237 APPENDIX F IRRIGATION SCHEMES ON EUPHRATES BASIN IN IRAQ 238 239 Table F-l Present Irrigation Schemes on Euphrates Basin in Iraq. Areas with Irrigation Irrigated Network Head Area Length of (1,000 donum) Discharge Average of Main Canal Irrigation Scheme Gross Net 1968-1972 (m3/s) (km) Anbar Muhafadha From Syrian border 145.6 117.0 63.0 Water withdrawal by to Ramadi Barrage water wheel, small pumps. Small canal From Ramadi 141.0 113.0 61.0 Water withdrawal by Barrage to Falluj ah small pumps. Saklawiyah 203.8 163.0 75.0 21.0 20.5 Baghdad Muhafadha From Fallujah to 78.1 62.0 44.1 Numerous small pumps Hindiyah Barrage and canals. Abu Ghraib 230.0 184.0 112.1 23.0 23.3 Radwaniyah 36.8 29.0 20.9 6.2 - Yusufia 250.0 200.0 140.1 25.0 60.2 Latifiyah 123.6 99.0 60.0 12.4 33.8 Babil Muhafadha From Abu Ghraib to 78.1 63.0 28.6 Water withdrawal by Hilla small pumps. Iskandariyah 61.8 50.0 25.8 6.2 27.7 Musaiyeb 267.3 214.0 112.5 33.5 50.0 Nasiriyah 13.4 11.0 5.4 1.4 10.5 Ruwaiyah 13.6 11.0 3.4 1.4 8.4 Beni Hassan 135.0 108.0 102.9 21.0 66.0 Hilla canal 780.0 664.0 309.5 236.5 104.0 240 Table F-l, Continued. Areas with Irrigation Irrigated Network Head ., „ Area (1,000 donum) Average of Discharge Ca°al Irrigation Scheme Gross Net 1968-1972 (m /s) (km) Kifl 158.3 134.0 98.5 17.7 67.0 From Hindiyah 22.5 19.0 9.7 Water withdrawal by Barrage to small pumps. Shinafiyah Karbala Muhafadha Husainiyah 139.0 111.0 83.7 27.5 29.0 Kufah 33.0 26.0 18.9 Water withdrawal by small pumps. Shamiyah 117.0 94.0 63.9 Water withdrawal by small pumps. Qadisiyah Muhafadha Kufah 170.0 136.0 82.4 Water withdrawal by small pumps. Shamiyah 310.0 255.0 201.5 Water withdrawal by small pumps. From Shinafiyah to 125.0 104.0 59.8 Water withdrawal by Nasiriyah small pumps. Dagharah Canal 100.0 85.0 109.0 33.6 70.0 Hurriyah Canal 80.0 68.0 - 10.8 6.0 Diwaniyah Canal 320.0 272.0 171.0 100.0 130.0 Muthanna Muhafadha Small systems 200.0 160.0 75.3 Water withdrawal by small pumps. Rumaithah 180.0 144.0 92.1 15.0 241 Table F-l, Continued. Areas with Irrigation Irrigated Network Area (1,000 donum) Discharge Average of Irrigation Scheme Gross Net 1968-1972 (m /s) (km) Dhigar Muhafadha Small system 245.0 208.0 45.6 Water withdrawal by small pumps. Sug-Shuyukh and 167.0 134.0 77.3 Water withdrawal by from Nasiriyah to small pumps. confluence of Euphrates and Tigris Basra Muhafadha Small systems 1 40.0 32.0 20.0 Water withdrawal by small pumps» Total for 4966.0 4070.0 2373.9 Euphrates Basin Area actually under winter crops (average of 1968-1972) = 1395.6 thousand donum Area actually under summer crops (average of 1968-1972) = 609.1 thousand donum Area actually under perennial crops (average of 1968-1972) = 369.2 thousand donum APPENDIX G CULTIVATED AREA AND WATER REQUIREMENT IN IRAQ AT YEAR 2000 ACCORDING TO MINISTRY OF PLANNING DATA Table G-l Planned Area under Irrigation for the year 2000— in Thousand Donums. Tigris River Basin Euphrates (Including Total River Basin Dejala & Zab) Shatt A1 Arab Irrigated area (net) 15,790 5,627 9,740 423 including: Lands with recon structed irrigation network 9,240 4,070 5,047 123 Land with new irrigation system 6,550 1,557 4,693 300 Annually irri gated area 13,305 4,210 8,872 423 Area under cultivation 14,742 4,490 9,744 508 including: Winter crops '9,979 3,140 6,587 252 Summer crops 3,118 872 2,142 104 Perennials 1,645 478 1,015 152 242 Table G-2 Planned Annual Irrigated Area by Crops for the Euphrates Basin. Irrigated Area Crop (thousand donum) Cereals total 2,272 including wheat 985 rice 334 Vegetables, potatoes 378 Oil seeds 429 Cotton 139 Fodder 823 Orchards and date palms 383 Forest belts 66 Total irrigated area under crops 4,490 ) 244 Table G-3 Planned Mean Monthly Water Requirement for Euphrates Basin in Iraq for the Year 2000 (According to Ministry of Plan ning Data). Water for Irrigation Domestic and Mean Water Industrial Total Monthly Month (million m^) (million m^) (million m^) (m^/s) Jan 553 80 633 236 Feb 942 80 1,022 422 Mar 1,519 80 • 1,599 597 Apr 1,285 80 1,365 527 May 988 80 1,068 399 Jun 1,720 80 1,800 694 Jul 1,941 80 2,021 754 Aug 1,553 80 1,633 610 Sep 1,587 80 1,667 643 Oct 1,373 80 1,453 542 Nov 890 80 970 374 Dec 714 80 794 296 Annual 15,065 16,025 508 i Table G-4 Alternatives of the Euphrates River Water Distribution between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq for the Year 1995 . (According to SELK HOZPROMEXPORT, 1975) 3 Assumptions: 1„ Average long-term volume of the Euphrates River runoff = 30 km . 2. Return flow from irrigation 25% of the total water requirement. 3. Annual (gross) irrigation duties: 11,000 m^/ha in Turkey and 14,000 m^/ha in Syria. Irrigation Water Annual Evaporation Requirements Percentage Gross Losses from Irrigated of the Irrigation (km3/yr) Reservoir 3 Area Non-Return Average Country (m /ha) (1000 ha) Total Non-Return (km3/yr) Water Total Runoff Alternative I Turkey 11,000 600.0 6.6 5.0 1.8 6.8 22.7 Syria 14,000 535.0 7.5 5.6 1.4 7.0 23.3 Iraq 2.2 16.2 54.0 The long-term average runoff of the Euphrates River in the Iraqi-Syrian border will be approximately 23.2 km^/year. Alternative II Turkey 11,000 700.0 7.7 5.8 1.8 7.6 25.3 Syria 14,000 830.0 11.6 8.7 1.4 10.1 33.7 Iraq 2.2 12.3 41.0 The runoff of the Euphrates River entering the Syrian-Iraqi border will be 22.4 km-Vyear. 245 246 Table G-5 Water Consumption and Water Disposal for Different Industries in the Euphrates Basin. Water Water Industry Unit Consumption Disposal Thermal power station (condensation) in3/1000 KWH 225 22 Thermal power station (gas turbine) m 3/1000 KWH ' 100 99 3 Oil extracting industry m /ton 1.5 .27 3 Oil refining industry m /ton 2.71 1.61 Textile industry m 3/1000 m 2 110 66 APPENDIX H Z POPULATION ON EUPHRATES BASIN IN IRAQ AS OF 1977 AND FOOD REQUIREMENT Table H-l Population on Euphrates Basin in Iraq as of 1977. Area 2 Mudhafadha Population (km2) Density/km Al-Anbar 405,000 89,540 5 Babylon 565,000 5,503 103 Kerbela 243,000 52,856 ^ 5 Al-Najarf 354,000 26,834 13 Al-Qadisiya 395,000 8,569 46 Al-Muthuna 184,000 49,206 4 Thi-Qar 617,000 13,668 45 Part of Baghdad 100,000 - - Total 2,863,000 247 .248 Table H-2. Recommended daily dietary allowances — From Wohl (1964). Protein Sex Age Calories (gm) Male 18-35 2,900 70 35-55 2,600 70 55-75 2,200 70 Female 18-35 2,100 58 35-55 1,900 58 155-75 1,600 58 Table h - 3 Content of calories and protein in food. Calories Protein Food per 100 gm per 100 gm Beef meat 273 17.5 Chicken meat 302 18.0 Fish fillet 132 18.8 . Canned tuna 217 27.7 Salmon fish 173 20.2 Eggs 144 11.0 Milk 68 3.5 Cheese 341 34.0 Rice 360 6.7 Corn 356 9.3 Wheat flour 350 11.7 Potatoes 70 1.7 Soybrean grits 261 46.0 Beans, peas (dry) 345 22.2 Cabbage U 1.1 Fresh fruits 46 0.5 APPENDIX I CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA OF IRAQ Table I- 1 Mean Monthly and Annual Wind Velocity (m/sec) • Month Habbaniyah Rutba Baghdad Diwaniyah Nasiriya Basra Jan 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.7 Feb . 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.1 Mar 3.4 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 Apr 3.2 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.3 May 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.4 Jun 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Jul 4.0 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.2 3.6 Aug 3.4 3.5 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.4 Sep 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.9 Oct 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.4 Nov 2.1 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.5 Dec 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 Annual 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 250 Table 1-2 Minimum and Maximum Measured Air Temperatures (°C). Haditha Habbaniyah Rutbah Baghdad Diwaniyah Nasiriya Basra Month Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Jan 18.0 -6.5 26.0 -9.0 25.0 -14.0 25.0 -8.5 26.8 -8.3 29.3 -7.2 30.1 -4.7 Feb 28.0 -4.0 30.0 —5.0 32.0 -10.0 30.0 -6.0 32.0 -7.2 32.3 -3.9 31.4 -0.4 Mar 33.0 -1.0 36.0 -2.0 36.0 -6.0 34.2 -2,8 36.1 -4.4 39.3 0.0 37.6 -1.9 Apr 39.0 2.0 41.0 2.0 39.0 -2.0 41.7 1.2 42.0 1.6 40.8 3.6 44.2 2.8 May 44.0 12.0 47.0 10.0 42.0 6.0 44.6 10.0 45.6 7.8 46.2 11.6 45.6 13.3 Jun 45.0 16.0 49.0 16.0 44.0 12.0 48.3 13.5 47.0 14.4 48.3 18.2 48.2 18.2 Jul 48.0 21.0 51.0 21.0 46.0 14.0 50.0 16.6 49,5 16.5 49.5 20.0 50.6 17.1 Aug 46.0 16.0 49.0 19.0 45.0 15.0 50.2 17.8 48.3 16.1 49.4 16.1 48.9 20.0 Sep 44.0 14.0 48.0 13.0 45.0 9.0 46.6 10.5 46.7 11.6 48.9 13.9 46.6 13.1 Oct 40.0 1.0 42.0 6.0 38.0 0.0 42.0 3.5 43.9 2.8 43.9 7.8 45.6 6.1 Nov 31.0 -2.0 35.0 -3.0 35.0 -6.0 34.8 -3.0 36:1 -2.8 36.7 -1.6 36.6 1.0 Dec 21.0 -3.0 31.0 -7.0 26.0 -9.0 26.6 -6.7 27.8 -5.6 28.2 -5.0 30.4 -2.6 Annual 48.0 -6.5 51.0 -9.0 46.0 -14.0 50.2 -8.5 49.5 -8,3 49.5 -7.2 50.6 -4.7 Table 1-3 Mean Monthly and Mean Annual Precipitation (mm). Month Haditha Habbaniyah Rutba Baghdad Diwaniyah Nasiriya Basra Jan 17.2 20.8 16.9 24.8 21.6 19.2 24.2 Feb 19.0 17.0 15.2 24.0 15.0 13.4 14.3 Mar 19.5 26.0 18.6 23.1 16.9 15.7 20.3 Apr 20.4 16.9 18.9 21.5 18.0 16.9 20.9 May 8.7 7.2 10.2 7.3 7.9 7.1 7.8 Jun 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jul 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Aug 0.0 ’ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sep 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0 .0 0.0 0.0 Oct 3.5 1.7 5.5 3.7 3.9 2.2 0.8 Nov 12.0 18.7 11.4 17.4 15.4 15.7 22.5 Dec 19.7 20.0 19.1 22,7 20.1 19.4 29.5 Annual 120.0 124.9 116.5 146.7 118.5 111.6 140.0 252 Table 1-4 Mean Monthly and Annual Air Temperature (°C). Month Haditha Habbaniyah Rutbah Baghdad Diwaniyah Nasiriya Basra Jan 6.9 9.5 6.8 10.0 10.5 11.4 12.4 Feb 10.5 11.8 8.8 12.3 12.9 13.9 14.6 Mar 15.2 15.6 1.2.5 16.3 17.1 18.2 18.7 Apr 18.9 21.5 18.2 21.9 22.7 23.6 24.1 May 27.8 28.3 23.8 28.4 29.0 29.8 29.7 Jun 32.4 32.6 26.9 33.0 32.7 32.9 32.7 Jul 34.5 34,9 30.3 34,8 34,2 34.3 34.0 Aug 33.0 34.2 30.1 34.4 33.8 34.9 33.6 Sep 28.6 30.2 26.6 30.6 30.4 31.6 30.6 Oct 23.1 24.4 21.1 24.6 24.9 26.1 25.9 Nov 15.3 16.8 13.8 17.1 17.7 18.8 19.3 Dec 8.9 10.9 8.3 11.0 11.9 12.8 13.6 Annual 21.3 22.7 18.9 22.9 23,1 24.0 24.1 253 Table 1-5 Mean Monthly and Annual Relative Humidity (%). 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