South Britannia,
Howe Sound, British Columbia
Master Planned Community – Market Demand /
Supply and Financial / Economic Impact Study
November 2011
Prepared for: Taicheng Development Corporation / Folio Hotel and Resort Architecture
December 2011
Prepared by: Site Economics Ltd.
701 West Georgia Street – Suite 1500 Vancouver, BC V7Y 1C6
File (11-39)
SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 SITE AND LOCATION ...... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 1.2 LOCATION ...... 1 1.3 THE SUBJECT SITE ...... 3 1.4 REGIONAL ROAD ACCESS ...... 6 1.5 INFRASTRUCTURE / UTILITIES ...... 9 1.6 SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES ...... 10 1.7 LAND USE ZONING AND DESIGNATION ...... 13 1.8 SITE POTENTIAL LAND USES ...... 20 1.9 NEED FOR SCHOOLS ...... 22 2.0 ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND OPPORTUNITIES ...... 25 2.1 GLOBAL ...... 25 2.2 PROVINCIAL ...... 26 2.3 METRO VANCOUVER REGIONAL TRENDS ...... 27 2.4 SQUAMISH LILLOOET REGIONAL DISTRICT TRENDS ...... 34 2.5 BUILDING PERMITS ...... 39 3.0 RESIDENTIAL STARTS, SALES, AND PRICES ...... 42
3.1 HOUSING STARTS ...... 42 3.2 UNIT SALE PRICES ...... 59 3.3 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ...... 60 3.4 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK ...... 61 3.5 PROJECT TARGET MARKET ...... 64 4.0 RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW ...... 66
4.1 CLASSIFICATION OF SHOPPING CENTRES ...... 66 4.2 NEIGHBOURHOOD SHOPPING CENTRE TRENDS ...... 68 4.3 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ...... 68 4.4 RETAIL COMPETITION ...... 69 4.5 DELINEATION OF THE TRADE AREA AND DEMOGRAPHICS ...... 71 4.6 RETAIL DEMAND ...... 71 4.7 RETAIL TENANTS AND RENTS ...... 74 5.0 OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW ...... 77
5.1 MARKET CONDITIONS ...... 77 5.2 OFFICE MARKET OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS ...... 78 6.0 INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW ...... 79
6.1 MARKET CONDITIONS ...... 79 6.2 INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS ...... 80 7.0 DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT AND VALUE ...... 81
7.1 PROPOSED LAND USES ...... 81 7.2 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ...... 82 7.3 RESIDUAL LAND VALUE ...... 84 7.4 ECONOMIC IMPACTS ...... 88 7.5 SUMMARY / CONCLUSION ...... 90
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8.0 APPENDIX 1 – SQUAMISH AREA SWOT ANALYSIS ...... 91 9.0 APPENDIX 2 – ESTIMATED SQUAMISH LAND USE INVENTORIES IN 2005 ...... 93 10.0 APPENDIX 3 – METRO VANCOUVER WORKFORCE ...... 94 11.0 APPENDIX 4 – SCHOOL DEMAND ANALYSIS ...... 97 12.0 APPENDIX 5 – HOUSING MARKET ...... 100 13.0 APPENDIX 6 – RETAIL MARKET ...... 102 14.0 APPENDIX 7 – OFFICE MARKET ...... 105
14.1 VACANCY RATES AND ABSORPTION ...... 105 14.2 RENTS ...... 106 14.3 NORTH SHORE OFFICE MARKET ...... 106 14.4 METRO VANCOUVER OFFICE SPACE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS ...... 108 15.0 APPENDIX 8 – INDUSTRIAL MARKET ...... 110
15.1 VACANCY RATES AND ABSORPTION ...... 110 15.2 RENTS ...... 111 15.3 NORTH SHORE INDUSTRIAL MARKET ...... 111 15.4 METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL LAND INVENTORY ...... 111 15.5 METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL SPACE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS...... 113 16.0 APPENDIX 9 – DEVELOPMENT PRINCIPLES ...... 115 17.0 APPENDIX 10 – IMPACT MODEL DESCRIPTION ...... 120 18.0 APPENDIX 11 – ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITING CONDITIONS ...... 124 19.0 APPENDIX 12 – PROFESSIONAL RESUME ...... 127
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SOUTH BRITANNIA PROJ E C T - M AR K E T SUMMARY
The objective of this study is to determine the estimated demand and supply for different forms of development for a proposed master planned community called South Britannia located at Britannia Beach, British Columbia. This study considers the application area within the RGS mapping area (approximately 154 acres) plus Museum lot A and Crown foreshore lots. This is part of a larger 600 acre site located on scenic Howe Sound, on the Sea to Sky Highway, an approximate 45 minute drive north on downtown Vancouver. Most of the subject site was used for industrial purposes and this is a “sustainable” development proposal on a “brownfield” site.
The key goal of this study is to determine the estimated demand and supply for different forms of possible development at the subject site, namely residential and retail along with complementary tourism, recreational, and community facilities, and potentially office and industrial components. The study recommends the appropriate mix of land uses and densities for the master planned community and the appropriate scale of each land use and outlines the optimal development programs. The vision and concept is then supported by a practical development strategy. Specifically, this study is intended to address the following:
The optimal development program for this large master planned mixed use community. The estimated value of the site under the optimal development scenario. The expected beneficial economic / employment / taxation impact of the development.
CONVENIENT AND ATTRACTIVE LOCATION The site is well located relative to Metro Vancouver, to the south, and Squamish and Whistler to the north. This major traffic corridor has benefited greatly with the improved transportation access associated with the full scale upgrading and enhancement of the Sea-to-Sky Highway 99. The ease of driving into Vancouver has been improved such that this area is now economically part of the Metro Vancouver real estate market and in an ideal position to capture a share of urban residential demand. The site offers an excellent location close to the ocean, mountains and wilderness yet is only a short drive into the city centre. It is ideally suited for retirees and nature enthusiasts but due to the short driving time to downtown Vancouver it is also competitive for virtually every suburban market segment.
A NEW ATTRACTIVE AND COMPLETE MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY This large site offers a unique opportunity to build a new high-quality master planned and complete community in a unique, attractive, nature area which is located in close proximity to Vancouver. The two other much smaller master planned communities in the corridor area are Furry Creek and Porteau Cove. Together these represent direct competition for residential development as they have the potential to accommodate over 1,750 new residential units. These are smaller purely residential suburbs, as is the Britannia Beach North area. The older municipality of Squamish is significantly further north and not directly competitive for the residential market which is primarily concerned about proximity to Vancouver and living in a new, well designed, community.
Based on available information, concept plans were prepared providing for different mixes of residential, retail, and other land uses. A mixture of predominantly residential land uses includes a commercial village
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT centre and other amenities is deemed most appropriate for the site to achieve its highest and best use given the site’s unique location and excellent access to the region.
The overall vision is to develop a community that: respects the natural environment and adheres to principles of environmental sustainability; respects and promotes the historic aspects of the community; promotes a “sense of community” by encouraging social interaction and providing employment opportunities; is compatible with the other communities and patterns of growth in the Sea-to-Sky corridor; promotes tourism, outdoor recreation potential, skiing and film industry; promotes the waterfront as a destination with marina amenities for residents and tourists; focuses on livability for residents with appropriate parks, local services, and community facilities.
becomes a place for older Vancouver residents to relocate to as Vancouver becomes ever more dense and congested and overall quality of life declines.
Becomes a place for younger families who want to live in a west coast lifestyle environment rather than the more homogeneous Fraser Valley suburbs.
For the project to be economic and to generate enough value to create sub-region serving facilities and Amenities it needs to have 3,000 homes. COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT COMMUNITY POPULATION SCENARIOS 1,000 or 3,000 UNITS
THE RESIDENTIAL COMPONENT The approximate 3,000 residential units are achieved through a mixture of higher density multi-family units located in an urban village surrounded by lower-density townhouses and some surrounding single
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT detached houses. The approximate mix type and number of residential units proposed are as follows. The first column are the number of units assessed in the main economic report and the second column are a recent and minor refinement based on the newest site plan.
RECOMMENDED HOUSING MIX
Single Family Detached 100 to 120 Townhouse 690 to 810 Stacked Townhouse 300 to 450 Lofts / Roof top Townhouse 320 to 480 Apartment Condominium 1,300 to 1,425 Total: 3,000
A full scale market study was conducted for this report and it is detailed in the residential section. The extensive analysis of market trends and focuses which contrast supply and demand can be summarized as follows:
THE NEXT DESTINATION FOR AGING WEST SIDE VANCOUVER RESIDENTS AND OTHERS The site and its community are now part of the Metro Vancouver real estate market and will soon be subject to the same very high levels of residential demand which are typical of the urban area. This is no longer a distant standalone settlement with minimal absorption but rather it is now part of a large urban agglomeration connected to all the amenities living near Vancouver offers. As such, the absorption rate can be calculated as a share of expected growth in Metro Vancouver and it is not tied in any way to past absorption rates in this area or in or near Squamish. This will become a growing market once the infrastructure is in place and sites are being offered to the public.
This community offers all of the benefits of proximity to Vancouver with a natural setting. Other more distant communities are connected by unreliable, inconvenient and expensive ferry service and they have all faded as retirement destination. This area is emerging as the one location which combines convenient living close to the city water and skiing all within a beautiful wilderness setting. It offers an ideal lifestyle for those who want to live near the urban core but be in nature. In terms of economics it is comparable to the way Laguna Beach and even Newport are waterside communities which are outside Los Angeles but are close enough to remain part of that metro area.
Not only are the traditional residents of Vancouver ageing but the city is growing large and dense beyond all recognition. Residents have left Vancouver for smaller local communities and helped Tsawwassen and White Rock grow to their current size. They also helped various island communities grow but the remote areas no longer attract large numbers of retirees. Vancouver retirees want to leave the congested and dense city but not completely. They can readily consider this location an ideal place in which to recreate or mimic something of their former lifestyle in an attractive relaxed natural setting, not far from the city. This area is far more attractive than a Fraser Valley location not only for retirees and also for young families who like the west coast lifestyle based on great views, wilderness hiking, boating and Oceanside living and skiing within an hour’s drive etc.
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SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED WOULD ABSORB QUICKLY Metro Vancouver is running out of vacant Single Family lots except in the extremely distant eastern suburbs of the Fraser Valley. This site’s 110 single family homes would be absorbed very quickly, likely as soon as they can be made available to the market.
TOWNHOUSES ARE LIKE SINGLE FAMILY HOMES ONLY MORE EFFICIENT Townhouses, which have direct exterior access and mimic single family ground oriented living have a similar advantage. While they have more competition from Metro Vancouver projects these units offer the city nearby plus a wilderness location and views, from within a private premise with a lawn, all at a low cost.
Approximately 2,500 townhouses are built in the Metro area each year and that number is expected to grow quickly and remain at 3,000 per year, just as the number of single family homes is declining. It may even climb to 4,000 units per year by 2018.
The subject site could easily absorb 100 units a year and reach built out in 10 years. It requires a small and manageable 3% share of the Metro Vancouver market. Given the massive number of active retirees (the entire baby boom) who are ready to move from the city to the much more attractive and lower cost edge of the city, this required 3% market share will readily be achieved. The young family market is also expected to be very strong as this area becomes an ever more attractive location compared to the congested city or the distant and homogeneous commodity housing and lifestyles offered by locating in the Fraser Valley.
ROOFTOP TOWNHOUSES / LOFTS AND APARTMENT CONDOMINIUMS The 480 Lofts or rooftop townhouses located mostly over retail and in the urban core offer a type of urban living. The 1,300 Condominiums will also be in and around the urban core area. Together these 1,780 units must capture a share of the approximate 10,000 unit per year condo market in Metro Vancouver market.
While the supply of competitive condos is almost unlimited many of the best sites are being developed first. That is near the water, in the Metro Vancouver urban core, near transit etc. In a few years the subject site will be competing with condos primarily located in standard deep suburban locations with few amenities. Those condos are simply low cost commodity type apartment units in which to live and commute to work. Those products offer little or nothing of the attractive natural features of a west coast lifestyle.
The subject site offers good value apartment condominiums and loft rooftop townhouses within an extremely attractive natural setting. This is a well designed master planned community within a reasonable commuting distance to work, the airport, medical services, entertainment, sailing, skiing, culture, family and friends. The site can be considered a less convenient extension of the very attractive North Shore residential market.
It is also important to note that this component will offer the best and most consistent views of the spectacular scenery all at a low cost. While this is the most challenging component it could easily achieve a 2% market share and be built out over a 10 year absorption period. A ten year build out would require that the absorption rate be 175 units to sold per year or just over 3 per week. There is a provision for this component to require up to 15 years if market acceptance is slower than expected.
The scale and number of all forms of multi-family housing in BC will grow and the required market shares will actually decrease as the construction industry concentrates increasingly on condominium apartments.
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SUMMARY: TOTAL RESIDENTIAL MIX The housing mix has the maximum number of single family and townhouse possible. Attractive, low- density, low cost, optimally efficient, ground oriented dwellings are obviously ideal for this site and they have been maximized.
The multi-family component in the form of apartment condominiums will clearly encounter the most difficult market conditions; however, we believe this volume of units and residents is required to ensure the success of the whole community. Further, we believe that once the project has proven to be successful condominiums will become increasingly acceptable. As part of Metro Vancouver, it will have a completely different profile than its former role as a small, isolated wilderness community.
It is virtually certain that Vancouver will continue to grow and has extended up the corridor, just as it extended residential out Hwy 99 and Hwy 1 in the 1980s. There is a major paradigm shift underway where Vancouver’s congestion and density are driving long-time residents to consider relocation to attractive wilderness areas on the urban fringe. It is logical to expect very large numbers of residents will sell their valuable homes in the city and relocate to a nearby master planned community in a naturally beautiful setting. The same applies to young families like a beautiful environment and whose location choices are flexible.
As the traditional retirement locations are now considered too remote this area has become the most viable. It can be expected to duplicate the success of Tsawwassen and White Rock and as such it requires all types of housing including affordable multi-family condominiums. The absorption rate for this project will be radically different than it was for the Sea to Sky corridor in the past.
NON-RESIDENTIAL COMPONENT OF THIS COMPLETE COMMUNITY Supplementing this housing will be land uses which will make this a complete community. This includes retail to provide social and commercial opportunities within the site. There will also be a standard array of civic community facilities, tourism facilities including waterside hotels, and a limited amount of office and light industrial to provide on-site employment.
RETAIL In terms of retail the supermarket and neighbourhood retail component of 100,000 sq.ft. will be feasible when the area population reaches 9,000 residents both on site and in the surrounding areas. This is expected by the year 2021 or 2023. The full scale retail feasibility study is in the report and this type and scale of commercial development is economically and financially feasible given the projected population growth. This would be in a very attractive street front retail configuration like a small town or village with residential above commercial.
It is also expected that this traditional neighbourhood retail district would be complemented by additional tourist commercial and several destination sub anchors plus highway commercial facilities totaling another 100,000 sq.ft. The neighbourhood commercial has a high probability of success as does the highway commercial. The destination retail such as tourist and sports stores will depend entirely on the success of the other components and only be possible at the end of the development, near build out of the final phases.
INDUSTRIAL OFFICE AND HOTEL Every community of this size typically has a small office and industrial component. These land uses are proposed for a modest employment area on the site in the attempt to allow more residents to work near where they live. It is entirely possible that these projects on less than 10 acres could be absorbed by local
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT residents who have businesses and they want to own their own strata title office or flex space. This has happened in other suburban areas (e.g. White Rock) where the only demand is generated by local residents who are business owners or professional and they want their business to be inside an owner user strata premise they bought.
The hotel component was not dealt with in this study but it is clear the market would extend from Vancouver to Whistler and be very strong.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS A summary land residual analysis and building absorption schedule were prepared to outline the potential value of the project and the land. While the project value is close $2 billion dollars, the 154 acre application area has an current estimated raw land value of only $12 million after adjusting for the 10 to 15 year absorption period of the development project. The land servicing costs have been conservatively estimated and after research and refinement will likely be reduced resulting in a higher raw land value.
ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS A full scale industry standard input out model was used to conduct an economic impact study for this project. The analysis model and all details are contained in the report. The summary results indicate that the total economic impact of the construction and occupation of the project, on site, is estimated at $2.7 billion. This would include the generation of approximately 18,200 job years of employment during construction, and an additional 830 ongoing jobs once occupied. This project would provide a major benefit to the regional economy generating thousands of new jobs, providing thousands of new homes, accommodating new local consumers and generating significant taxation revenues for government, such as over $13 million a year in just property taxes, all of which are detailed in the report.
This project will also have the off-site impact of turning the corridor into an economic extension of Metro Vancouver. The pace and scale of development everywhere will increase as will the quality of life in all neighbouring areas with the addition of amenities and services from a supermarket and shops to schools and community centres. The project scale and amenities will benefit the entire Sea to Sky Corridor with positive impacts on Squamish, Furry Creek, Whistler and Porteau Cove. Not only will it make these areas more attractive but it will also make the area more acceptable to the wider Metro Vancouver market. The corridor will become a major real estate sub market attracting the entire region’s attention with its relatively rare combination of an attractive natural setting with quick access to the city.
This is the right type of location and product mix being offered at the right time in the market cycle just in time to serve the needs of the largest, most affluent and most important demographic group, the retiring baby boomers. It also is well suited to attract young families who are looking for affordable market housing in an attractive location.
This study is intended to be a general estimate of what could possibly be developed based on market conditions. The analysis assumes acceptable site conditions, soils, engineering, transportation, planning and all other issues are not a hindrance to development. The broad conservative assumptions contained in the study are typical of a preliminary overview and are required to complete a standard real estate analysis and forecast. Widely accepted industry standards and assumptions have been used, when required. Once the project proceeds further, more detailed estimates will be warranted (notably engineering costs, refined land use planning, and refined financial analyses).
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1 . 0 S I T E AN D LOCATION
1.1 INTRODUCTION
This study was commissioned by Taicheng Development Corporation / Folio Hotel and Resort Architecture in September 2011 and was completed in September through November 2011 by Site Economics Ltd. This study considers the first phase (approximately 154 acres) of a larger 600 acre (240 hectare) site located on Howe Sound at Britannia Beach, between Squamish and Horseshoe Bay, in British Columbia, Canada. The site is located to the immediate east of the ocean and Sea-to-Sky Highway 99 which connects Vancouver to Whistler. The proposed project is called ’South Britannia’.
The key goal of this study is to determine the estimated demand and supply for different forms of possible development at the subject site, namely residential and retail along with complementary tourism, recreational, and community facilities, and possibly office and industrial components. This study will inform an appropriate mix of land uses and densities for the master planned community and specifically the appropriate scale of each land use and outline the optimal development programs. The vision and concept is then supported by a development strategy.
The broad assumptions contained in the study are typical of a preliminary overview and are required to complete a standard real estate analysis and forecast. The assessment has been conservative and consistent. Widely accepted industry standards and assumptions have been used, when required, throughout the study. Once the project proceeds further, more detailed estimates will be warranted (notably engineering costs, refined land use planning, and refined financial analyses).
This study is intended to address the following:
The optimal development program for this large master planned mixed use community. The estimated value of the site under the optimal development scenario. The estimated economic / employment / taxation impact of the proposed development. This section of the study describes the site, and summarizes its suitability for appropriate types of land uses based on location, access, topography, surrounding land uses, local government plans, and other factors.
1.2 LOCATION
The site is located along Howe Sound at Britannia Beach, 12 km south of Squamish and 33 km north of Horseshoe Bay. The area is immediately north of the communities of Furry Creek (6 km) and Porteau Cove (8 km). The area is accessed via Highway 99 which connects Vancouver to the south (55 km), and Whistler to the north (70 km).
The site and surrounding area is within the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District (SLRD), however directly accessible to the Metro Vancouver region to the immediate south. Metro Vancouver is the largest urban centre in Western Canada and a major gateway to international trade. The nearest part of the Metro Vancouver region is the North Shore communities (Lions Bay, West Vancouver, North Vancouver District, and North Vancouver City), which are predominantly residential areas, but becoming more urban.
The regional context and location of the study area is shown in the following figure. The surrounding areas are largely undeveloped and heavily treed.
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FIGURE 1.1 REGIONAL LOCATION MAP
The site is on the major regional highway (Sea-to-Sky Highway 99) which provides excellent access to the Metro Vancouver region, and specifically downtown Vancouver, to the south, and Squamish and Whistler to the north. Highway 99 was substantially upgraded in advance of the 2010 Winter Olympics and provides greatly reduced travel times and increased safety. Highway 99 is connected with other significant transportation infrastructure improvements in the wider region, which make it conveniently accessible to the western parts of the Metro Vancouver region. This improved transportation access significantly enhances the development and market potential of the subject site, effectively bringing the site closer to the huge market of Metro Vancouver.
The following map shows the Howe Sound area including the subject site relative to the surrounding communities, including Squamish and Vancouver.
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FIGURE 1.2 MAP OF SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES
Squamish
1.3 THE SUBJECT SITE
The subject site consists of approximately 18 separate legal properties:
Most of the properties are located on the east side of Highway 99. Some of the properties access directly onto the ocean, and are bisected by the highway and rail line. The site is located immediate south of the historic Britannia mines facility. The total site is irregular in shaped, approximately 2.5 km long and 1.5 km wide. The total gross site area is approximately 600 acres (240 hectares) and the Application area is approximately a quarter of the total site size. The site has significant changes in grade, with the lowest parts of the site at sea level and the highest towards the east, providing for a varied terrain with some very steep lands and other lands more readily developable – this offers excellent potential for views. Given some watercourses and expected environmental setbacks, undevelopable lands due to grade, and other constraints, the net developable site area is approximately 310 acres.
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It is expected that the development would be in phases over a period of ten or more years, with development generally commencing in the central areas along the highway.
The following figures show the boundary of the subject site comprising of the legal properties, as well as the site's topographical and natural features. Much of the site is heavily treed. The site is relatively steep, although with some flatter areas nearer the highway, and also includes multiple watercourses and environmental and geo-technical areas.
FIGURE 1.3 AERIAL VIEW OF SITE
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FIGURE 1.4 LEGAL AND TOPOGRAPHIC SURVEY OF THE SUBJECT SITE
FIGURE 1.5 SITE SLOPE ANALYSIS
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FIGURE 1.6 PHOTOGRAPH OF SUBJECT SITE
1.4 REGIONAL ROAD ACCESS
The subject area has benefited from enormous transportation improvement projects over the past decade. The existing and future capacity, location, and alignment of transportation infrastructure are critical factors that influence the demand for lands and land development considerations. Accordingly, an understanding of transportation infrastructure is fundamental to market and financial development decisions.
The subject area is on the southern part of the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District, but effectively and from a market perspective part of the larger Metro Vancouver region to the immediate south due to the regional transportation network. The subject site offers unique features, specifically the opportunity for a large master planned community in a natural setting while having direct access to the communities and amenities of Squamish and Whistler to the north and the Metro Vancouver region to the south.
Highway 99 Sea-to-Sky Highway 99 (Sea-to-Sky Highway) is the major route from the Howe Sound area connecting Metro Vancouver to Squamish and Whistler. The highway was substantially upgraded leading up to the 2010 Winter Olympics and is four lanes in most places. The major transportation connections for the region are shown on the following map.
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FIGURE 1.7 REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION MAP
As part of the 2010 Winter Olympics bid, the British Columbia provincial government spent approximately $600 million upgrading the highway to accommodate greater traffic loads, widening the highway and adding a concrete divider. The Sea-to-Sky Highway is a freeway for most parts, with sporadic interchanges and at-grade intersections. It is mostly a divided highway between West Vancouver and Squamish.
Below is a further description of the Sea-to-Sky Highway improvements and associated benefits (Source: BC Ministry of Transportation):
As part of Highway 99, the Sea-to-Sky Highway winds its way through the spectacular Coast Mountains, linking communities from West Vancouver to Whistler. British Columbia’s Ministry of Transportation initiated the Sea-to-Sky Highway Improvement Project to increase this road’s safety, reliability and capacity. In addition to meeting the area’s future traffic needs, the upgrades also enhance economic development opportunities in communities along the highway and in the province as a whole.
Some of the many benefits the Sea-to-Sky Highway Improvement Project provide include: A straighter highway and improved sightlines, creating more consistent driving speeds and shorter travel times 80 kilometres of new passing lanes between Horseshoe Bay and Whistler
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Highly reflective pavement markings along the entire route, making the Sea-to-Sky Highway easier to navigate, particularly during times of poor visibility Shoulder and centreline rumble strips and additional median barriers Safer, more effective intersections Wider shoulders for improved safety and accommodation for cyclists and disabled vehicles Better pullouts and opportunities for police enforcement along the highway Stronger bridges to withstand potential damage from debris when water levels are high Enhanced monitoring of road conditions by electronic weather stations to improve highway maintenance response during winter weather 6,000 new jobs throughout the province as a result of economic activity generated along the corridor Provincial GDP increased by $300 million over the period of 2010 to 2025
This enhanced highway provides the benefit of accessibility for the subject site and the Squamish / Whistler region to the north and the Metro Vancouver region, including downtown Vancouver, the international airport, ferries to Vancouver Island, and other destinations, to the south. Accordingly, there is a massive positive impact on the potential highest and best use of the subject site and it can be viewed, in economic terms, as a suburb of Vancouver.
The site is adequately close to the Vancouver region for residents to live and commute. This commute journey is already done by some people who live in Squamish, however it takes close to an hour each way. The total travel time from the subject site to downtown Vancouver would be closer to 45 minutes which is much less than Squamish and less than that for people who live to the east of the city in Surrey, Langley, or Maple Ridge, traditional eastern suburbs.
Gateway Program The ongoing Gateway Program further improves the site’s accessibility from the wider region. Metro Vancouver is the nexus of an established and innovative commercial transportation network, acting as Canada’s western Gateway to Asia. The region has invested heavily to maximize the economic opportunities resulting from trans-Pacific travel. Various government agencies are completing upgrades to the transportation infrastructure network of the region, which will better serve both the local population and the regional economy and international trade. These Gateway Program transportation improvements are shown on the following map.
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FIGURE 1.8 GATEWAY PROGRAM REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS
In the past, the subject area was considered to be somewhat remote from the central areas of economic and employment activity. This is no longer the case. The access to the main urban area of the Metro Vancouver region has improved greatly due to the highway upgrade, as such the area is no longer considered to be as remote.
Further, significant interest and development in Squamish and Whistler continues to attract more people to the area. Potential population and employment growth, development, and the ever-larger scale of the region have made the area a central, not peripheral location. Market demand and land values for the subject site have and will increase with the improved regional transportation access.
1.5 INFRASTRUCTURE / UTILITIES
The subject site is largely undeveloped with some steep terrine and limited or no existing infrastructure other than a through highway and railway. The small community of Britannia Beach is located to the immediate north, although has limited services.
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The necessary services for site development include water, sewer, storm water drainage, electricity, natural gas, cable television, and telephone. The subject site would require significant re-grading and servicing since it is situated in an undeveloped area and also has varied terrine and other natural features which impact necessary grades.
As part of the comprehensive master planned development, necessary infrastructure and utilities would need to be installed. Infrastructure construction will be required in order to service the development and should be identified and costs estimated in an engineering servicing feasibility study.
1.6 SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES
The subject site is largely surrounded by undeveloped lands and is only accessible via Highway 99. Other notable communities in the area are described below.
Squamish The District of Squamish is an incorporated municipality located at the north end of Howe Sound on the Sea-to-Sky Highway, within the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District. Squamish has a population of approximately 15,000.
The town of Squamish had its beginning during the construction of the Pacific Great Eastern Railway in the 1910s. It was the first southern terminus of that railway (now a part of CN). The town remains important in the operations of the line and also the port. Forestry has traditionally been the main industry in the area, and the town's largest employer was the Western Forest Products pulp mill. However, Western Pulp, Squamish Operation permanently ceased operation in 2006. Before the pulp mill, the town's largest employer was International Forest Products (Interfor) with their sawmill and logging operation, but it closed a few years prior to the pulp mill. In recent years, Squamish has also become popular with Vancouver and Whistler residents' escaping the increased cost of living in those places, both less than one hour away by highway. Tourism is an increasingly important part of the town's economy.
Squamish has been promoting itself as the ‘Outdoor Recreation Capital of Canada’ as its proximity to the sea and mountains allows for such recreational activities as skiing, hiking, camping, mountain biking, canoeing, boating, and fishing. Squamish can accommodate both tourists who are travelling to Whistler as a destination and act as a tourist destination in its own right thanks to the many attractions in the area and its accessibility from Vancouver.
Tourist attractions include the Stawamus Chief, a huge cliff-faced granite massif favoured by rock climbers. Another activity for which Squamish is well known is mountain biking, with over 600 trails suitable to all abilities surrounding the town. Other tourist attractions in Squamish include Shannon Falls waterfall; river-rafting on the Elaho and Squamish rivers; wind surfing and kite surfing at the mouth of the Squamish River; snowmobiling on nearby Brohm Ridge; and bald eagle viewing in the community of Brackendale, which has one of North America's largest populations of bald eagles.
The District of Squamish is currently reviewing an application for an OCP amendment for a major 32 hectare development near the downtown - the Oceanfront peninsula lands. This will include thousands of new residential units, commercial components, as well as tourism facilities and a cruise ship terminal. The District is also updating their downtown neighbourhood area plan; this will also support significant new development in the Squamish downtown area.
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Quest University in Squamish opened in 2007, with an ultimate student population expected to be 800. The total size of the site is 240 acres, including the campus and residential development. The campus contains a mixture of academic, residential, recreational, and commercial facilities typically associated with a university. In addition, the University will undertake the development of a new residential neighbourhood (up to 960 market units) on the lands adjacent of the campus. There will also be associated uses, such as an elementary school, parks and playgrounds, and a neighbourhood commercial centre.
Britannia Beach / Mine Britannia Beach is a small unincorporated community in the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District located approximately 30 kilometers north of Vancouver, on the Sea-to-Sky Highway on Howe Sound. It has a population of 300.
The community first developed between 1900 and 1904 as the residential area for the staff of the Britannia Mining and Smelting Company. The residential areas and the mining operation were physically interrelated, resulting in coincidental mining and community disasters through its history.
Today, the town is host to the Britannia Mine Museum, formerly known as the British Columbia Museum of Mining, on the grounds of the old Britannia Mines. The mine's old concentrator facilities, used to separate copper ore from its containing rock, are a National Historic Site of Canada.
In 2001, the Province reached a $30 million settlement with the successors to the former mine owners. In 2003, subsequent to an agreement with the Provincial Government, the approximate 10,000-acre (40 km2) mine site including the town was purchased by The Macdonald Development Corporation with approximately 400 acres (1.6 km2) remaining with Macdonald and the remaining 9,600 acres (39 km2) including the primary contaminated areas remaining with the Province. Macdonald, under agreement with the Provincial Government, proceeded to develop the town and surrounding area with some proceeds contributing to the Province's reclamation fund. The current residents were able to purchase the property where their homes were and many did so in 2005, the first individual landowners in the town's history.
The Province proceeded to construct a $20 million water treatment centre to process the water pollution from the former mine, consisting of the acid mine drainage and the contaminated groundwater which formerly discharged to Howe Sound. The water treatment plant started operation in 2005. The acid mine drainage is expected to continue for hundreds of years and hence the water treatment plant is expected to be required for hundreds of years. The approximate cost for the first 20 years of the reclamation program including all initial capital and operation costs is $100 million, which will be primarily paid for by the Province.
Murrin Park Murrin Provincial Park is located 2 kilometres north of Britannia Beach and 9 kilometres south of Squamish alongside Highway 99. Established in 1962, this park has various climbing walls named the Shaman, Sugarloaf, Bog Wall, Leviticus, Petrifying Wall and Brunser that provide for excellent climbing opportunities. While Browning Lake offers swimming, picnicking, fishing and a nice walking trail around the lake. The park does not have any development but is a recreational attraction in the area.
Furry Creek Furry Creek is a master planned residential and golfing community located south of Britannia Beach. It was developed by Tanac Land Development in the early 1990s as a luxury residential community with a golf course, and subsequently built by Parkland Homes. It is now an exclusive collection of single-family
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The approximately 1,000 acre project involved a master plan to accommodate a mixed use development with 950 residential units on the Sea-to-Sky Highway between West Vancouver and Squamish. This provides for approximately 2,200 residents, and preserves half of the lands for as environmental lands. The challenge was to link prime development pockets with exceptional views on the large site, which has very challenging terrain. Also included were development approvals for a 250 unit multi-family development at Oliver’s Landing, the waterfront development at Furry Creek. This included development agreements with the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District, approvals from senior governments, preparation of a first zoning bylaw for the area, flood hazard management issues, and subdivision of land.
As BC's most scenic golf course, Furry Creek captures the most spectacular qualities of the region. This par 72, 18-hole golf course designed by Robert Muir Graves and built in 1993 offers panoramic ocean views and encounters with abundant wildlife, and is just 35 minutes north of Vancouver, along the scenic Sea-to-Sky Highway to Whistler.
Porteau Cove The Porteau Cove Provincial Park is 50 hectares in size, and offers picnicking, camping, swimming, windsurfing, and a boat launch. Porteau Cove is a very popular area for scuba diving, with a series of artificial reefs including two sunken vessels. It has 44 drive-in campsites and 16 walk-in sites.
Planned for the new Porteau Cove community are a total of 1,400 homes, including condominiums, villas and townhomes that range in size from approximately 800 sq ft to 2,500 sq ft. A selection of single-family lots will also be available in each phase. Concord Pacific Development is in the process of rezoning for the site and the first phase of the development. This Porteau Cove Oceanside development, just 25 minutes from downtown Vancouver via the new Sea-to-Sky Highway, will let residents come home to nature yet stay close to the convenience of cosmopolitan living. Nestled in a beautiful piece of livable terrain, Porteau Cove offers a hybrid living concept that allows residents a balanced approach to life, much as would be proposed for the subject site.
The Porteau Cove site is approximately 1,177 acres in size and is bisected by the Sea-to-Sky Highway. The CN Rail Line marks the south and west boundary of the site. Key features of the development include:
62% of the development site will remain undeveloped Much of the site will offer spectacular Views of Howe Sound (Ocean) and the Coastal mountains An overpass is proposed to provide access to and from the development 1,400 units are currently proposed that would support an estimated population of 3,000 to 3,500 Amenities planned include trail enhancement, trail head access, public parks, natural open space, community facility, and retail services Development is planned to take place over a 10 to 15 year timeframe
Lions Bay Lions Bay is an incorporated village located on Howe Sound within the Greater Vancouver Regional District. According to the Canada 2006 Census, there are 1,328 people living in Lions Bay in 552 private dwellings.
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The community includes the Lions Bay General Store and Cafe, Lions Bay Art Gallery, a realty office and a post office. Also, the town features a fairly large marina with a launch ramp adjacent to the town swimming beach. Community programs take place in the municipal town hall; dancing classes, volleyball, yoga and kids programs. The Village of Lions Bay has an emergency building which houses a volunteer Fire Department, ambulance station and search and rescue team.
Horseshoe Bay Horseshoe Bay is a West Vancouver community of about 1,000 residents. Situated right on the western tip of West Vancouver, at the entrance to Howe Sound, the village marks the western end of Highway 1 on the British Columbia mainland.
It is also the southern end of the Sea-to-Sky Highway, with a major BC Ferries terminal providing vehicle ferry links to Vancouver Island, the Sunshine Coast, and Bowen Island, a small island in the southern part of Howe Sound. There are currently 3 berths at Horseshoe Bay, making it the third largest BC Ferries terminal, after Tsawwassen and Swartz Bay. Because of the presence of the ferry terminal, Horseshoe Bay is a control city on the Upper Levels Highway westbound.
1.7 LAND USE ZONING AND DESIGNATION
SLRD Regional Growth Strategy It is expected that the developer would have to seek a comprehensive development application proposal, including rezoning, Official Community Plan amendment, Development Permits, and other agency approvals. Supporting documents for the application will require technical studies, such as transportation, engineering, environmental, geo-technical, and market studies.
The area is within the Squamish Lillooet Regional District (SLRD) Regional Growth Strategy. The 2008 Strategy includes nine goals as follows: Goal 1: Focus Development into Compact, Complete, Sustainable Communities Goal 2: Improve Transportation Linkages and Options Goal 3: Support a Range of Quality Affordable Housing Goal 4: Achieve a Sustainable Economy Goal 5: Protect Natural Ecosystem Functioning Goal 6: Encourage the Sustainable Use of Parks and Natural Areas Goal 7: Create Healthy and Safe Communities Goal 8: Enhance Relations with Aboriginal Communities Goal 9: Improve Collaboration among Jurisdictions More specifically, under Goal 1, the Strategy states the following: Maintaining Nodal Development in the Sea-to-Sky Corridor - Concentrating development in the Howe Sound to D’Arcy corridor into compact, well-planned centres separated by natural resource and rural land uses and avoid the potential for continuous or dispersed linear development. Promoting More Complete Communities - Providing for a mix of land uses in community development, particularly at Porteau Cove, Furry Creek and Britannia Beach, to enhance the potential for more integrated, complete communities.
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Squamish Lillooet Regional District Electoral Area D The Britannia Beach area along with Furry Creek and Porteau Cove to the south are shown as ‘Master Planned Communities’ in the Squamish Lillooet Regional District Electoral Area D plans. This already allows for certain levels of development for the subject site, however there may be the opportunity to expand the scale of the project through an Official Community Plan (OCP) amendment. An OCP amendment will likely be required for such a development application to ensure that the design and development is comprehensively considered, designed and appropriate for the local context.
FIGURE 1.9 REGIONAL SETTLEMENT PLANNING MAP
SLRD Electoral Area D Official Community Plan / Sub-Area 3 Plan The SLRD Electoral Area D Official Community Plan update project was initiated in 2009. The new OCP will guide land use and development activity throughout Electoral Area D. It updates and consolidates the current OCP which was adopted in 1994, and provides new policy direction for the electoral area as a whole around issues such as the protection of riparian areas, Smart Growth and sustainability principles for the development of livable communities, environmental protection, the preservation of agricultural lands and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. The Britannia Beach area is within the 2001 SLRD Electoral Area Howe Sound East Sub-Area 3 Plan.
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The plan review will seek to involve the residents and others with interests in the area in a comprehensive manner. Consultation with stakeholders and residents will occur throughout the review process. A comprehensive review of the Area D Zoning Bylaw is also underway.
FIGURE 1.10 SLRD OFFICIAL COMMUNITY PLAN – HOWE SOUND SETTLEMENT AREAS
The Sub-Area 3 study area is 19,000 hectares (47,000 acres) in size. It includes three identifiable waterfront locations, Porteau Cove, Furry Creek, and Britannia Beach, as well as extensive mining and forestry lands to the east of the Howe Sound shoreline. Taken from the Sub-Area plan, the study area provides many opportunities with respect to future land use, including: a stunning waterfront location offering spectacular views road and rail access up the Sea-to-Sky corridor rolling developable land close to the waterfront mountain valleys with swiftly flowing creek a historic mine and townsite at Britannia extensive resource lands
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There are also significant constraints, including: acid rock drainage and contaminated deposits resulting from the previous mining activity at Britannia Beach unstable geology that can cause flooding and debris flows along creeks, especially Britannia Creek, numerous steep slopes that vary in stability steep land rising to high elevations close to the shoreline riparian areas and other environmentally sensitive resources archaeological sites highway, rail and utility corridors that form barriers to public access, making potentially developable land too expensive to access ongoing forestry activity
The likelihood of land development occurring within the 5 to 10 year horizon of a typical land use plan varies for each of four locations within the plan area. However, as one of the primary development areas within the Sea-to-Sky corridor, it is important to establish the overall approach to planning and the projected total population before substantial additional development occurs. Some comments on the potential sequence of development follow: A development agreement with the Squamish-Lillooet Regional District (SLRD) is in place and Furry Creek has an approved Preliminary Layout Approval (PLA) with the Ministry of Transportation for development of 920 residential units consisting of up to 250 units in the “waterfront” lands and up to 670 single family lots in the “uplands”. Development is about 15% complete. The Squamish First Nation is has an option to acquire lands owned by BCR Properties Ltd. at Porteau Cove as part of a Comprehensive Agreement with the province, so detailed planning for the future of this area will not occur for some time, if at all from a local government perspective. The Britannia mine site will require various forms of remediation before development of lands owned by Copper Beach Estates and the BC Museum of Mining can proceed. The Makin property immediately south of the Britannia mine and townsite, part of the Britannia Beach area for the purposes of this bylaw, has been the subject of a rezoning application, and will likely be the next community to be developed.
The primary focus of the OCP update is therefore Britannia Beach, including the Makin lands. The planning process and public consultation related to Howe Sound East has been underway for some time through the Master Plan preparation, meetings related to the OCP update, and meetings hosted by the developer of the Makin property.
Britannia Beach Area Vision Taken from the Sub-Area Plan, the Britannia Beach community is envisioned as including two parts: Britannia North refers to the Britannia Beach mine and existing townsite with the surrounding area, and includes land currently owned by Copper Beach Estates, the BC Museum of Mining, and the Crown (waterfront area) Britannia South refers to the area surrounding Minaty Bay and the adjacent private property known locally as the Makin Lands
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The overall vision is to develop a community that: respects the natural environment and adheres to principles of environmental sustainability respects and promotes the historic aspects of the community promotes a “sense of community” by encouraging social interaction and providing employment opportunities is compatible with the other communities and patterns of growth in the Sea-to-Sky corridor promotes tourism, outdoor recreation potential, and film industry promotes the waterfront as a destination for residents and tourists focuses on livability for residents with appropriate parks, local services, and community facilities
The OCP for the Britannia area provides details on objectives and policies to achieve this vision, with specific provisions for a mixture of housing types, commercial and industrial uses, recreational, parks, and community amenities, etc. Specifically, the following policies taken from the current OCP are directly relevant to the subject site, although some of these previsions may ultimately be amended: 2.2.5: The total number of future residential units in Britannia Beach will be in the range of 1650 - 2000 at build-out, based generally on the distribution shown on Map B2 Britannia Beach Land Use Plan, with approximately 800 to 1000 units allocated to Britannia North, and approximately 850 to 1000 units allocated to Britannia South. 2.2.8: Development at Britannia Beach is expected to be phased in over a period of at least 20 years, with development of Britannia South lands generally expected to precede development of Britannia North. An infrastructure servicing plan for the entire Britannia Beach area must be done prior to or in conjunction with the first rezoning application for the Britannia North or Britannia South lands. 2.4.1: Support provision of one elementary school, and potentially a second school if the proposed population requires it. 2.5.6: Support provision of community-oriented commercial uses, up to a maximum of approximately 1500 square metres (16,000 square feet) of gross leasable floor area, to serve residents. Community commercial development should be located at or near a major road intersection within Britannia South, away from Highway 99 on a site that has convenient pedestrian access from the majority of the residential development. 2.5.8: Support tourist accommodation with a maximum size of 100 bedrooms. 2.6.1: Encourage the location of industrial uses generally where shown on Map B2 Britannia Beach Land Use Plan.
The following figure shows the proposed land uses as per the current Official Community Plan for the Britannia area.
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FIGURE 1.11 SLRD OFFICIAL COMMUNITY PLAN – BRITANNIA BEACH LAND USE PLAN
Metro Vancouver Regional Growth Strategy The 2011 Metro Vancouver Regional Growth Strategy guides planning and development for the Metro Vancouver region. Its objective is to help maintain regional liveability and protect the environment. Although the Metro Vancouver regional district does not have jurisdiction over the subject area, the significance of its regional land use plan to the immediate south is relevant.
The figure shows the 26 Urban Centres designated in the Metro Vancouver Regional Growth Strategy, along with the six regional land use designations. These urban centre locations throughout the region are encouraged to experience significant growth over the long-term, particularly higher density forms of development, such as office, retail and residential. No significant growth is identified for the Howe Sound area within Metro Vancouver.
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FIGURE 1.12 METRO VANCOUVER REGIONAL DESIGNATION MAP
Within Metro Vancouver, the planned new growth areas are shown in the following figure in red, and are mostly located in the eastern parts of the region. The numbers denote the potential new residential population in these areas.
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FIGURE 1.13 METRO VANCOUVER REGION FUTURE GROWTH AREAS
1.8 SITE POTENTIAL LAND USES
A principal objective of this study is to support a suitable land use and development plan for the subject site. Given the unique site and surrounding natural features and relative location to Vancouver, Squamish, and Whistler, a predominately residential mixed use community is most appropriate for the site. A limited amount of supporting retail is also appropriate, along with tourism related uses. There may be only limited opportunity and demand to support office and industrial development at this location.
This level of access and exposure makes the site an ideal location for residential development of various forms along with associated retail. The site is ideal for unique luxury residential development, through a mixture of unit forms / designs / sizes / densities, but with a focus on ground-oriented residential units. This would be supplemented with a retail component to serve the needs of the new population, along with necessary community and recreational amenities. A tourist component in the form of a possible hotel / resort and marina could also supplement this new community development. This would take advantage of the site’s unique aspects and location, with great attention paid to overall site planning and design. These many different types of possible land uses emphasize the importance of optimizing the development program.
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The residential component of the project could consist of various forms and densities of development from single detached and row / townhouse to low rise apartments, and possible some high rise apartments. The focus should be providing a significant proportion of the units as ground-oriented development.
Potential high-rise apartments should only be considered in latter phases once the community and market demand is established. The extra construction cost for high rise apartments may not be warranted as most of the site will have excellent views of the ocean and mountains to the west; constructing high-rises which is often done in urban areas to take advantage of improved views is not as necessary for this location with already excellent views of the ocean and mountains.
The current land use designation for the site allows for approximately 1,000 residential units along with only limited local facilities / amenities. Under such a scenario, this development would likely be predominantly in the form of single detached housing, and there would be few retail, employment, and community facilities which are required as part of a complete community. Alternatively, as proposed, a project with more residential units, possibly approximately 3,000, could allow for a wider mix of unit types and more local shops and services. This would provide for greater economic and employment opportunities in the area and reduce the need for residents to drive to other locations for daily needs and employment. Such a population level is required in order to support an adequate scale of retail and other facilities associated with the village centre.
FIGURE 1.14 COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT COMMUNITY POPULATION SCENARIOS 1,000 or 3,000
This development strategy provides an objective overview of the highest and best use of the subject site. The main considerations are summarized as follows:
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Given the location, proximity to a major highway and relative location to downtown Vancouver, Squamish and Whistler as well as other amenities a unique master planned high-quality community is appropriate. Development would be in the forms of many thousands of residential units phased over a 10 year period. The focus of potential uses should be on a range of residential forms with a focus on ground-oriented unit development. The subject location has good access and visibility from the highway, and with an attractive retail development would be able to draw local customers, and some drive-by traffic. A tourist component including a hotel / resort and marina would add a further mixture of uses and activity to the new community. Supporting recreation and community facilities and other uses should also be provided. Only limited office and industrial development should be considered once the community has been established. Office demand in Squamish and the surrounding area is very limited. Industrial demand is the area is already satisfied by lands in Squamish. Some live / work mixed-use type of development could be an option for a limited portion of the lands.
The subject site comprises a unique development opportunity with an excellent location. Due to the new transportation infrastructure that has greatly improved the site relative to other parts of the region, it would be suitable for a mix of complementary land uses including residential and retail and some supporting uses. This project could become the most urban location in between West Vancouver and Squamish.
1.9 NEED FOR SCHOOLS
A number of different forms and densities of residential development are possible on the subject site. These include single detached lots, townhouses, stacked townhouses, lofts, and apartments. The site is well suited for all types of ground-oriented development units offering an excellent view, high profile and good location with amenities such as views, recreational features and amenities, and future retail and community facilities.
The approximate number of residential units proposed on the subject site are:
Single Family 110 Townhouse 810 Stacked Townhouse 300 Lofts 480 Apartments 1300 Total: 3000
Review of Other Sites In order to estimate the potential need for a school and the number of children ultimately housed in the multi-family component of the community, other sites with comparable characteristic were investigated. These areas are mixed-use, high-density, multi-family developments at various locations throughout the Metro Vancouver region. These sites are of comparable scale and mix to the project proposed on the subject site. See Appendix for more information.
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FIGURE 1.15 SUMMARY OF AREAS COMPARISON
COQUITLAM EDMONDS NEW WEST PORT MOODY SURREY CENTRAL BC TOTAL
Total Population 2,399 2,214 2,490 2,063 1,069 4,113,480
Dwellings by Structure Type 1,264 1,300 1,400 1,057 539 1,642,715 Single-detached house 7 1% 66 5% 0 0% 101 10% 30 6% 805,640 49% Semi-detached house 0 0% 10 1% 0 0% 4 0% 8 1% 50,575 3% Row house 0 0% 49 4% 185 13% 180 17% 30 6% 111,370 7% Apartment, duplex 0 0% 18 1% 0 0% 37 4% 15 3% 167,225 10% Apartment less than 5 storeys 1,033 82% 377 29% 740 53% 609 58% 95 18% 343,640 21% Apartment 5 or more storeys 226 18% 786 60% 470 34% 130 12% 359 67% 117,650 7%
Young Children (aged 0-9 years) 0 to 4 years 104 4% 103 5% 75 3% 111 5% 48 5% 201,885 5% 5 to 9 years 78 3% 78 4% 55 2% 82 4% 40 4% 220,695 5% Number of Children 182 181 0.8% 130 0.5% 193 0.9% 88 0.8% 422,580 1.0%
Older Children (aged 10-19 years) 10 to 14 years 118 5% 74 3% 60 2% 85 4% 38 4% 257,020 6% 15 to 19 years 120 5% 111 5% 55 2% 93 5% 52 5% 273,565 7% Number of Children 238 1.0% 185 0.8% 115 0.5% 178 0.9% 90 0.8% 530,585 1.3%
Young Children Ratios (0-9 years) Per Total Population 7.6% 8.2% 5.2% 9.4% 8.2% 10.3% Per Number of Dwellings 0.14 0.14 0.09 0.18 0.16 0.26
Older Children Ratios (10-19 years) Per Total Population 9.9% 8.4% 4.6% 8.6% 8.4% 12.9% Per Number of Dwellings 0.19 0.14 0.08 0.17 0.17 0.32
All Children Ratios Per Total Population 17.5% 16.5% 9.8% 18.0% 16.7% 23.2% Per Number of Dwellings 0.33 0.28 0.18 0.35 0.33 0.58
Source: 2006 Census, PCensus MapPoint
The table shows a summary comparison of the number of residents and dwellings units within each of the studied areas. This provides for ratios of children to total population and dwelling units, and such are also compared to the provincial average. The children are classified into two groups depending on ages: 0-9 years old for younger children, and 10-19 years old for older children.
The total number of children (aged 0-19) per residential units for the five study areas varies from a low of 0.18 to a high of 0.35 children per dwelling unit. Reflecting the fact that these study sites are mostly multi- family housing units and that families with children (especially those with more than one child) tend to live in single detached houses or other forms of ground-oriented housing, the ratios are lower than the overall average for the region and the province.
In summary, the subject site is expected to develop as mostly multi-family units of various designs and sizes – townhouse, stacked townhouses, lofts, and apartments. Most of the apartment units are proposed to be one and two bedroom units. The townhouse units are split between two and three bedroom units. Such a residential development would be targeted towards retired couples and high income professionals, with relatively few children. The single detached houses may have proportionally more families with school age children, but there are only 110 houses proposed.
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Based on the review of the other study sites, assuming an overall average of 0.25 children per household (not all of which would be of school age, and not all of which would necessarily attend public schools), for a new development with approximately 3,000 residential units of mostly multi-family designs and sizes, this provides for approximately 750 children. However, approximately 30% of these children (generally those aged 0-4, and aged 19) would not be of school age. Furthermore, some children would be attending private school or home schooling. Hence, for the multi-family component of the project, the number of children attending public schools in the immediate area would likely be approximately 450.
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2 . 0 ECONOMIC CONTEXT AND OPPORTUNITIES
This section of the study describes the context for the economic opportunities and challenges that the region will face in the future, and provides a glimpse of its relative economic position. Land use decisions made now will significantly influence the employment generation and economic potential within the region for decades to come. Strategically, these decisions must be made with a sound understanding of the local, regional, and national economic conditions. See Appendix for more information.
2.1 GLOBAL
Following a number of years of strong growth, the global economy declined sharply in 2009. International trade, a major engine of economic growth, plunged close to 20%, and it is not expected to recover to previous levels for several years, let alone show any significant growth.
The global expansion remains unbalanced. Growth in many advanced economies is still weak, considering the depth of the recession. In addition, the mild slowdown observed in mid 2011 is not reassuring. Growth in most emerging and developing economies continues to be strong. Overall, the global economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.3% in 2011 Q1, and forecasts for 2011–12 are broadly unchanged, with offsetting changes across various economies. However, greater-than-anticipated weakness in US activity and renewed financial volatility from concerns about the depth of fiscal challenges in the euro area periphery pose greater downside risks. Risks also draw from persistent fiscal and financial sector imbalances in many advanced economies, while signs of overheating are becoming increasingly apparent in many emerging and developing economies. Strong adjustments—credible and balanced fiscal consolidation and financial sector repair and reform in many advanced economies, and prompter macroeconomic policy tightening and demand rebalancing in emerging and developing economies—are critical for securing growth and job creation over the medium term. (Source: IMF)
FIGURE 2.1 GLOBAL GDP GROWTH
Global activity is projected to slow in the second quarter of 2011, and then reaccelerate in the second half of the year. But activity will remain unbalanced amid elevated downside risks. Growth is set to be sluggish in advanced economies facing fiscal and financial sector balance sheet problems, which will continue to be a drag on employment. Activity will continue to expand strongly in advanced economies that do not face such challenges, as well as in many emerging and developing economies. (Source: IMF)
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2.2 PROVINCIAL
Population British Columbia has a population of approximately 4.4 million and it has grown by an average of 1% per year. The population is ageing due to a long-term decline in birth rates. The baby boom helped delay the onset of the full effect of this ageing but, as these boomers reach retirement age, the ageing of the population will accelerate, regardless of the high levels of international immigration.
FIGURE 2.2 BRITISH COLUMBIA POPULATION CHANGE AND REGIONAL GROWTH RATE
Source: BC Stats
The provincial population is expected to continue to grow at a similar rate as in the past. Most of the growth will occur in Lower Mainland / Southwest, particularly Metro Vancouver, because immigrants tend to be the main source of growth and they generally prefer urban centres where the majority of employment opportunities are found.
Economy The province’s single greatest source of income is generated through its wealth of natural resources: forestry, mineral, and oil & gas extraction and fishing. The forestry industry in BC has suffered significant periods of decline over the past decade because of the increased value of the Canadian dollar, fuel costs, and competition from other countries.
Nevertheless, over the past five years, the BC economy has consistently outpaced the Canadian economy, propelled in large part by strength in Metro Vancouver, and is positioned to outperform the national benchmark. The strong economy is translating into rising incomes and British Columbians have enjoyed strong growth in average disposable incomes. BC’s comparative performance has been impressive with average incomes growing more quickly than the Canadian benchmark. Although BC’s economic growth has been strong, the BC per person GDP remains below that of the national average.
The 2006 unemployment rate for the province was 4.7% and remained low until 2008. Strong demand for commodities, along with strong real estate and construction industry jobs, lowered unemployment. However, the unemployment rate rose significantly in 2009, to over 8%, with layoffs in construction, real estate, financial services, and retail. Total employment numbers in 2009 were reduced to 2007 levels.
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FIGURE 2.3 BC EMPLOYMENT, 2000-2011
2.3 METRO VANCOUVER REGIONAL TRENDS
Economy The Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (Metro Vancouver), the third largest metropolitan region in Canada, is home to over 2.2 million people or half the population of the province. Because of a competitive business and tax climate, the growing gateway role to Asia, hosting of the 2010 Olympic Games, high rates of immigration, high levels of investment and construction, a diverse and skilled workforce as well as a growing advanced technology sector, Metro Vancouver is one of Canada's fastest growing urban centres and an international business destination. The regional economy had been growing strongly, but since the fall of 2008, growth has stalled and recovery is not expected through the medium term.
Metro Vancouver is Canada’s gateway to the Pacific Rim. The transportation and goods handling sectors are the largest economic drivers in the region. Annual value of cargo moving through the ports totals $43 billion. This is important to note as the region has a larger than average industrial employment base and smaller than average office employment base relative to most other cities in North America.
Immigration Immigration is a leading source of population growth for the region, at over 30,000 per year. Most of the (net) immigration to the region is international. Net Intra-provincial immigration has been negative. Most of the international immigration has been from Asia. As immigration from Hong Kong declined in the late 1990s, this has been replaced with more immigration from Mainland China.
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FIGURE 2.4 NET IMMIGRATION TO METRO VANCOUVER REGION, 1996-2010
Net Inter- Net Inter- Net Intra- Total Net Year national provincial provincial Migration 1996-97 42,780 7,602 (8,278) 42,104 1997-98 26,763 (1,625) (6,821) 18,317 1998-99 27,110 (5,064) (3,648) 18,398 1999-00 26,794 (5,339) (2,314) 19,141 2000-01 32,276 (2,913) (1,732) 27,631 2001-02 35,065 (3,362) (3,534) 28,169 2002-03 28,436 (1,467) (3,651) 23,318 2003-04 28,908 2,334 (5,504) 25,738 2004-05 36,121 2,974 (5,475) 33,620 2005-06 37,731 3,134 (5,620) 35,245 2006-07 34,351 3,964 (5,948) 32,367 2007-08 40,209 3,843 (5,612) 38,440 2008-09 44,980 4,621 (1,943) 47,658 2009-10 41,181 4,495 (1,943) 43,733
Source: BC Stats, BC Regional District Migration Components
Net Intra-provincial Net Inter-provincial Net Inter-national 50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
-10000
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FIGURE 2.5 INTERNATIONAL IMMIGRATION SOURCES TO METRO VANCOUVER REGION, 1993-2010
SOURCE 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Europe 3,851 3,724 4,000 3,847 3,734 3,390 3,233 3,150 3,341 2,857 2,963 3,523 3,488 3,570 3509 4147 4435 4240 Africa 807 1,483 1,148 1,166 1,339 1,021 900 997 990 960 968 981 942 981 828 893 946 967 Asia 29,412 33,609 30,155 37,783 33,770 23,661 21,240 22,543 23,423 22,535 25,562 25,219 31,375 29,710 26277 30051 27356 30141 China-Mainland NA NA NA 4,021 4,562 5,321 7,549 8,924 8,902 7,335 9,533 10,557 12,939 10,638 7952 9595 8975 8894 Hong Kong 10,601 15,487 11,366 12,158 8,362 2,788 1,419 740 496 430 515 543 631 409 293 530 299 253 Taiwan NA NA 5,203 9,157 8,949 4,602 3,093 1,862 1,660 1,754 1,528 1,221 2,118 1,837 1794 2015 1540 1768 India 3,739 3,547 3,470 4,150 3,463 2,945 1,466 2,750 2,691 3,950 4,272 3,531 4,506 5,509 4790 5134 5623 5347 Australasia 306 301 276 298 335 225 178 183 311 300 333 370 352 359 411 402 412 453 North & Central America1,258 1,034 979 1,252 1,179 1,064 1,055 1,125 1,067 1,052 1,154 1,476 1,848 2,208 2372 2330 2020 1949 U.S.A. 836 760 684 789 649 578 617 639 617 669 732 1,008 1,289 1,678 1854 1765 1420 1162 Caribbean 134 96 117 111 109 87 68 85 69 100 91 82 116 127 117 160 151 122 South America 356 222 237 312 365 397 372 477 529 516 594 680 591 600 584 622 637 650 Oceania 652 605 421 393 296 257 125 162 240 360 405 404 245 212 244 296 212 303 Not Stated 0 0 0 42 26 52 30 58 37 101 - 6 44 57 80 72 2 6 All Areas 36,776 41,074 37,333 45,204 41,153 30,154 27,201 28,780 30,007 28,781 32,070 32,741 39,001 37,824 34,422 38,973 36,171 38,831
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada / BC Stats
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Other Asia 25,000 India 20,000 Taiwan / H.K.
15,000 China-Mainland
10,000 N. & C. America
Europe 5,000 Others 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Population As shown in the following figure, Metro Vancouver has experienced significant population growth since 1971. Growth over the last decade has averaged over 30,000 people per year.
Over the most recent Census period (2001 and 2006), Metro Vancouver grew by 6.5%, the Fraser Valley Regional District by 8.2%, and Squamish Lillooet Regional District by 5.7%. Specifically, for the SLRD between 1986 and 2010 the total population approximately doubled from 20,000 to 40,000.
Metro Vancouver has been experiencing the same trends as the rest of Canada: households are smaller; more people live alone; and couples have fewer children. In 2006 for Metro Vancouver, the average number of persons per household was 2.55; single detached houses at 3.13; townhouse at 2.68; low rise apartments at 1.94; and high rise apartments at 1.70.
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FIGURE 2.6 HISTORIC POPULATION GROWTH FOR METRO VANCOUVER REGION, 1986-2010
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1986 1987 1988 1992 1993 1994 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 1989 1990 1991 1995 1996 1997 2002 2003 2008 2009
Future population for the region, based on projections from Metro Vancouver, indicates 55% growth between 2006 and 2041. The region is expected to grow by 1.2 million people to 3.4 million by 2041.
During this same period, the population of the North Shore area of Metro Vancouver is expected to increase by 35% from 181,000 in 2006 to 244,000 in 2041. In general terms, the North Shore is projected to accommodate approximately 5% of the future population growth for the Metro Vancouver region.
A projected population increase for the North Shore of 64,000 over a 35 year period equates on average a population increase of 1,800 persons per year. Assuming an average of 2.5 people per household, this indicates a long-term demand for approximately 700 residential units per year.
Over the long-term, demand for new homes will remain strong because of a relatively strong regional economy, significant population immigration, and historically low interest and mortgage rates. A scarcity of land and high housing prices have led to an ever increasing proportion of new housing units being multi-family.
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FIGURE 2.7 METRO VANCOUVER POPULATION PROJECTION BY MUNICIPALITY
Source: Metro Vancouver
Workforce Metro Vancouver is one of Canada's fastest growing urban centres and an international business destination. Metro Vancouver’s economic drivers have been the resource-based industries: forestry, mining, and oil and gas. However, Metro Vancouver's economic landscape is being reshaped by steadily increasing growth in businesses concentrated in key future growth sectors such as technology, film production and tourism.
According to the Census, employment in Metro Vancouver reached 1.1 million in 2006, a gain of 11% from 2001. This is stronger than the gain recorded over the previous 5-year period and is the fastest pace of job growth among Canada’s three largest metropolitan areas.
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The distribution of jobs in the Metro Vancouver region by industrial classification is as follows: Retail Trade and Hospitality are the two largest categories, followed by Professional, Manufacturing, and Management / Public Administration.
For the distribution of jobs by industrial classification for each major area in the region, the North Shore (District of North Vancouver, City of North Vancouver, District of West Vancouver, Village of Lions Bay) is grouped as one sub-region. Of particular note for the North Shore:
Employment in the North Shore is dominated by Retail Trade, Hospitality, Health Care, and Professional / Science / Technical, and Finance / Insurance / Real Estate. The North Shore’s distribution of jobs is different from that of the region, in that there is a higher representation of Professional / Science / Technical, and Finance / Insurance / Real Estate, which are generally higher paying jobs. Relative to Metro Vancouver, the North Shore’s and particularly West Vancouver’s residents have significantly higher incomes than the regional average.
Employment Distribution The following table indicates the details of the employed labour force by home municipality for every jurisdiction in Metro Vancouver. The North Shore employed labour force grew by 4,100 employees from 60,000 in 1996 to 64,000 in 2006. This sub-area experienced a modest amount of growth in jobs over the last decade, and a decline in some areas. The total number of jobs, and as a percentage of the regional labour force total, located within the North Shore decreased. The North Shore went from 7.2% in 1996 to 6.6% in 2006 of regional jobs, while the regional total grew at a faster rate.
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FIGURE 2.8 METRO VANCOUVER EMPLOYMENT, 1996-2006
In Metro Vancouver, the percentage of the employed labour force working within their sub-region municipality increased from 39% in 1996 to 42% in 2006. In West Vancouver the rate of local employment stayed constant at 37% (the rates were lower for the City and District of North Vancouver). However, it remains that a significant amount of the population commutes beyond the boundaries of their community to work. This could be expected for a traditional suburban community. Also, a significant component of the North Shore’s daytime workforce is commuting from other communities. The North Shore should be targeting at least historic rates of the labour force working in their communities.
Employment Growth Future employment for the region, based on projections from Metro Vancouver, indicate approximately 50% growth between 2006 and 2041. The region is expected to add 600,000 jobs by 2041. Of this, half will be located in urban centres. The urban centres which will grow the fastest are downtown Vancouver, Surrey City Centre, Richmond Town Centre, and Surrey Guildford. The number of jobs within the North Shore is expected to increase from 77,000 in 2006 to 110,000 in 2041. The North Shore’s growth will represent 5.5% or 45,000 of the region’s new jobs over the period.
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However, many of the employed residents who live in the North Shore work in downtown Vancouver rather than within their sub-region. Accordingly, the number of new jobs expected for the North Shore area is modest over the long-term. West Vancouver experienced limited amounts of job growth in the past decade. This trend will likely continue in the coming years.
The trend for the employment rates for the Metro Vancouver region is as follows: the unemployment rate reached a low point of 4.0% in 2007-2008, and rose quickly to over 7.0% in 2009-2011.
Metro Vancouver Overall Challenges and Opportunities Within the national and provincial economic context, the region exhibits both key competitive advantages and challenges. Economic development opportunities in the North Shore are impacted by the following: Large land base, however much of it is already developed or has constraints. Good regional transportation access. Close to the ocean and port facilities. Established area with many amenities. Growing and aging population. Opportunities for high quality development. Opportunities for economic development will be challenged by: Competition with other municipalities. High land prices. Congestion on local arterials and bridges. An under representation of younger adults and associated reduced labour force contribution.
As with many other parts of the region, the North Shore also faces a general dilemma: increasing land demand consistently drives all land towards higher valued uses. However, often lower valued industrial and commercial uses are essential to generate the employment and economic demand that drives the local economy.
2.4 SQUAMISH LILLOOET REGIONAL DISTRICT TRENDS
Population Regarding the SLRD’s population, the following statements are taken from a 2004 population and demographic report (A Region in Transition Demographic and Housing Contexts for the Future of the Squamish Lillooet Regional District, Urban Futures, 2004): The Squamish Lillooet Regional District’s (SLRD) 2003 population is comprised of an estimated 35,141 permanent residents. Fourteen percent (4,768) of these people reside in the northern portion of Regional District in communities centered on Lillooet, with the remaining 86% (30,373 persons) residing in the southern portion in communities centered on Squamish, Whistler and Pemberton. The southern portion of the Squamish Regional District has a total resident population of 30,373 people. Over half (16,269 people, 54%) of this population reside in the District Municipality of Squamish and its vicinity. A further 9,769 people (32%) reside in the Resort Municipality of Whistler
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and its vicinity, with the remaining 4,335 people (14%) residing in the communities centered on Pemberton. A population projection for the SLRD based on consideration of historical trends in not only in demographic variables, but changing housing, employment and transportation dimensions, indicates a trend projection for 2031 for the Regional District of 68,153 people. Adding 33,012 more residents would result in a doubling of the Regional District’s current population. This would involve a gradual increase in the annual growth rate from less than 1% in the near term to approximately 2.8% per year by 2016 before declining to 2.2% by 2031. The trend projection for the southern portion of the Regional District is for the addition of 32,444 people to its current population of 30,373 residents, doubling the population to 62,817 between 2003 and 2031. This would involve population growth increasing from the current 0.8% rate to a 3% per year range in the next decade before declining to the 2.3% per year range by 2031. For the Squamish Lillooet regional district, the rate of population growth has been consistently higher than the provincial average, although there has been a province-wide slowing trend over time. The population of the SLRD more than doubled from 16,232 residents to 35,225 residents in the thirty year period from 1976 to 2006. During this time period, the population in the region increased at an annual rate of approximately 3.9%, while the provincial population increased by 2.3%. Some of the primary factors driving growth include lifestyle reasons, increasing demand for recreational services, economic and employment opportunities, natural beauty and environmental qualities, and proximity to the Lower Mainland.
Strong, sustained growth is predicted for the SLRD in the next thirty years. The population of the region is projected to almost double again in the period from 2003 to 2031: from 35,141 residents to 68,153 residents. This will be through a gradual increase in the annual growth rate from less than 1% in the near term to approximately 2.8% per year by 2016 before declining to 2.2% by 2031 (Source: Urban Futures).
For the southern part of the SLRD, which contains the majority of the population in the regional district, the population projections are shown in the following chart.
FIGURE 2.9 SLRD SOUTH POPULATION TRENDS, 2003-2031
Source: SLRD Regional Growth Strategy
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And for the population within the SLRD by community, the following chart shows the growth over the 2001-2025 period. Most of the growth will be in established areas, namely Squamish and Whistler.
FIGURE 2.10 SLRD POPULATION GROWTH BY MUNICIPALITY, 2001-2025
Further, within this increasing population, the overall age profile of the population will substantially change and age. The following figure compares the 2003 and projected 2031 age structure. Senior citizens will form a much larger demographic, resulting in greater demands for health care, housing, recreation and other services related to older age groups. Population growth in First Nations communities will outpace growth in other areas. First Nations populations have a much younger age profile, resulting in high demands for housing, education and job opportunities.
FIGURE 2.11 SLRD POPULATION AREA PROFILE, 2003 and 2031
Source: SLRD Regional Growth Strategy
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Population change will play a significant role in driving future housing occupancy demand in the region over the next three decades. This is due to the lifecycle of housing occupancy where the propensity to maintain a household increases with age. The following figure shows population increasing 94% (33,000 new residents) and housing occupancy demand increasing by 114% between 2003 and 2031 (15,459 new dwelling units).
FIGURE 2.12 SLRD POPULATION AND HOUSING GROWTH FORECAST, 2003-2031
Source: SLRD Regional Growth Strategy
Employment The following table shows, for 2031 employment in Squamish, the estimated share of employment in each sector that is population-serving, and consequently the total share of population-serving jobs held by that sector. Based on a projected 2031 population of 37,200, the 2031 total employment of 5,580 is up from 4,700 in 2001. Note this is only the local servicing employment and excludes other types of employment.
The distribution of population-serving jobs by sector, shown in the far right column, is assumed to be constant over time. It is further assumed that over time, Squamish is able to moderately reduce the amount of out-shopping that occurs so that each resident generates 0.15 population-serving jobs (up from 0.13 in 1996, but still lower than the Metro Vancouver average of 0.2).
The estimated total of 12,300 jobs in Squamish in 2031 is 162% more than the 2001 total of 4,695 jobs, compared to a projected population increase of about 150% over the same time period. Squamish is projected to slightly increase its ratio of jobs to residents from 0.32 to 0.33, which is comparable to suburban Vancouver municipalities such as Coquitlam (0.30) and Surrey (0.29). (Source: Squamish Retail, Commercial and Industrial Trade, Investment and Marketing Strategy, 2005)
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FIGURE 2.13 SQUAMISH POPULATION SERVICING EMPLOYMENT, 2031
Source: Squamish Retail, Commercial and Industrial Trade, Investment and Marketing Strategy, 2005
Squamish Overall Challenges and Opportunities Within the national and provincial economic context, the region exhibits both key competitive advantages and challenges. Economic development opportunities in the Squamish area are impacted by the following: Upgraded highways which improve access from the site to Metro Vancouver and Whistler. Close to the ocean and port facilities. Many recreational amenities and attractions in the area. Growing and aging population. Opportunities for high quality development. Opportunities for economic development will be challenged by: Transitioning regional economy from resources to tourism sectors
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2.5 BUILDING PERMITS
Building permit data from BC Stats is illustrated in the following figures. It shows a substantial reduction in building permit levels for British Columbia and Metro Vancouver in 2009. In 2010, there was an increase over the 2009 levels, but not to the 2005-2008 levels. These trends occurred for both the Province and the Metro Vancouver region.
FIGURE 2.14 TOTAL BUILDING PERMITS – BC AND METRO VANCOUVER
Building Permits ($000) by Location 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 BC 6,000,000 Metro Van. 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: BC Stats
In BC and Metro Vancouver, residential and commercial development clearly dominate in terms of building permit values, followed by government / institutional and industrial. Residential construction values approximately tripled between 2002 and 2007.
The following figure illustrates building permits and shows how strong commercial development has been in the recent past. The value of building permits in Metro Vancouver for 2002 – 2008 indicates that commercial building permits increased substantially. This commercial sector completely dominates non- residential development.
Within the Commercial, Industrial, and Institutional sub-categories, there are noticeable changes between years and not all sub-categories have trended in the same way. Commercial declined significantly in 2009, while Industrial actually increased.
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FIGURE 2.15 BUILDING PERMITS BY TYPE – BC
Building Permits ($000) in BC By Type 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 Residential 8,000,000 Commercial 6,000,000 Industrial 4,000,000 Gov't / Inst. 2,000,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: BC Stats
BC Building Permits ($000) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Gov't / Inst. 732,312 424,408 506,406 513,713 979,529 1,068,309 961,170 762,136 1,136,461 992,208 Industrial 221,353 230,119 244,024 328,050 346,203 358,843 323,893 292,221 245,157 229,208 Commercial 1,171,233 1,116,741 1,129,623 1,228,027 1,886,405 2,493,684 2,647,905 2,623,509 1,757,192 1,787,090 Residential 2,829,874 3,888,147 4,514,185 5,868,937 6,978,962 7,620,696 8,611,723 6,899,289 4,491,075 6,701,313 Source: BC Stats
FIGURE 2.16 BUILDING PERMITS BY TYPE – METRO VANCOUVER
Building Permits ($000) in Greater Vancouver By Type 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 Residential 5,000,000 4,000,000 Commercial 3,000,000 Industrial 2,000,000 Gov't / Inst. 1,000,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: BC Stats
Greater Vancouver Building Permits ($000) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Gov't / Inst. 345,523 219,235 227,798 276,945 434,577 535,874 395,818 372,014 397,792 501,284 Industrial 105,178 129,291 90,082 140,419 148,198 172,413 124,205 124,198 94,177 89,270 Commercial 718,860 746,220 607,764 812,400 1,099,029 1,666,544 1,730,566 1,710,101 971,661 1,055,690 Residential 1,813,511 2,490,546 2,751,827 3,613,001 3,969,178 4,242,550 4,760,550 3,381,645 2,426,194 4,083,956 Source: BC Stats
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Within the Metro Vancouver region, the total value of building permits (all types) is shown below by municipality / sub-region. Much of the construction activity has been in Vancouver and Surrey. And the majority of this activity has been in the form of residential building permits. The types of residential units have varied, with a general trend towards a greater proportion of multi-family units.
FIGURE 2.17 TOTAL BUILDING PERMITS BY METRO VANCOUVER SUB-REGION
Metro Vancouver Total Building Permits
8,000,000 Surrey 7,000,000 Langley (C & D) 6,000,000 White Rock 5,000,000 Delta 4,000,000 Richmond Vancouver / UEL 3,000,000 Burnaby / New West 2,000,000 Maple / Meadows 1,000,000 Tri-Cities 0 North Shore 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: BC Stats
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3 . 0 RESIDENTIAL STARTS, SALES, AND PRICES
This section of the study outlines the relevant residential real estate market, specifically the building starts, sales, and prices for all forms of residential development in the region. As the Metro Vancouver region and market to the immediate south of the subject site are so dominant and will drive demand for housing at the site, this geographic area is the focus of the market study. An assessment of the market represents a crucial step in the determination of the most appropriate development strategy and mix of unit types and sizes. The market findings bear directly on the development options for the site, the value of each component, and a reasonable expectation of timing.
The residential real estate market in Metro Vancouver was very strong between 2002 and 2008. This has applied particularly to condominium apartments where supply, demand, and prices all increased substantially. However, following five years of near record new home starts and sales, the Metro Vancouver housing market experienced substantial declines in late 2008 and early 2009. In mid 2009, sales and prices started to improve, and for 2010 and 2011 have stabilized and approach long-term fundamentals.
Urban economic factors such as the high level of demand and high average housing prices have resulted in a very large market for condominium apartments compared with other North American cities. Municipalities throughout the Metro Vancouver region, and in Squamish, have responded to this opportunity to maximize land densities by creating the necessary multi-family (high-rise, low-rise, townhouse) residential zoning. The areas typically allocated for multi-family housing are within urban centres, on a rapid transit line or other transportation service, and on or near adjacent amenities such as the waterfront or commercial services.
The objective of this section is to establish the historic and projected supply and demand for housing and the typical unit sizes and price. It is very important to note that this is a long-term project and the land use mix should reflect long-term trends and broader community planning objectives. See Appendix for more information.
3.1 HOUSING STARTS
Housing Starts – British Columbia Housing starts in urban centres across British Columbia for the first half of 2011 remained relatively unchanged compared to 2010, at approximately 11,500. (Source: CMHC)
Total housing starts in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) accounted for close to three- quarters of all housing starts in British Columbia for the first half of 2011, up from 60% in 2010. Overall, housing starts are up 17% year over year in the Southwest Mainland region, with the Vancouver CMA and Abbotsford CMA recording increases compared to 2010’s totals. (Source: CMHC)
In the Vancouver CMA, developers have concentrated their efforts on higher density multiple family homes (semi-detached, row and apartment). Multiple family home starts in the Vancouver CMA were up 50% compared to 2010’s totals, with the Cities of Vancouver, Surrey and Richmond surpassing one thousand units during the first half of 2011. Developers starting construction on larger scale multiple family homes that were approved during the latter half of 2010 will bring new supply to the market when completed. Further, improving pre-sales in various projects and neighbourhoods in the Vancouver region have encouraged developers to look at future developments. (Source: CMHC)
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With the pick-up in multiple family home starts in the Vancouver CMA, the total number of homes under construction at the end of June 2011 in British Columbia was up 12% from last 2010’s totals. In particular, construction of apartment buildings was up by 28%. Consequently, ground-oriented construction (single detached, semi-detached and row) was down by 6%. (Source: CMHC)
Rural housing starts trended lower. For the second quarter of 2011 there were an estimated 544 rural home starts in British Columbia, down from the 914 home starts recorded in 2010. As a result, total rural housing starts for the province in the first half of 2011 were 824 units, a 41% decline from the first half of 2010. (Source: CMHC)
Compared to other communities in the province, the Metro Vancouver region is by far the largest, with over half of all housing starts. Squamish is very small, with housing start numbers comparable to the many other smaller communities in the province.
This provincial housing starts data for urban centres is illustrated in the following chart; the number of units and particularly apartments declined significantly in 2009, and increased in 2010 and 2011.
FIGURE 3.1 BC HOUSING STARTS IN URBAN CENTRES, 2005-2011
Housing Starts – Metro Vancouver In the first quarter of 2011 for Metro Vancouver, 3,808 new homes were started, a 19% increase over the same quarter of 2010. This was largely due to an increase in multiple family housing starts, most of which were apartment condominiums. As a share of total housing starts, multiple family housing units accounted for 84% in the first quarter of 2011, compared to 67% twelve months prior. (Source: CMHC)
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In the first quarter of 2011, there were fewer newly completed homes compared to the same period in 2010. Completions declined 51% to 2,344 units, compared to the same period in 2010. Fewer condominium apartment completions accounted for the majority of the decrease. This is not surprising given the low level of apartment condominium starts in 2009 and during the first half of 2010. Most of the larger scale multiple family projects, which generally take up to two years to complete, did not get started till the latter part of 2010 and are currently under construction. For the same reason, apartment completions are expected to remain below the long-term average level through 2012. This will limit additions to the inventory of completed and unabsorbed new condominium apartments. (Source: CMHC)
The figures below show the historical data on Metro Vancouver housing starts by unit type. It is evident that over the last decade multi-family (apartment and townhouse) housing sector has been an increasing proportion of total housing starts. Interestingly, however, that the multiple unit housing development experienced the most extreme fluctuations, whereas the single-family housing starts remained relatively stable even throughout the recent market activity decline of 2008-2009.
The 20-year average for housing starts levels in Metro Vancouver has been approximately 16,000 units per year, with the 2004-2008 years experiencing substantially higher than average levels. The 2009 levels were much lower, with the 2010 and 2011 levels returning to near long-term average.
FIGURE 3.2 GREATER VANCOUVER TOTAL HOUSING STARTS BY TYPE, 2002-2012
The following table shows the number of housing starts by unit type for each community within the Metro Vancouver region. Metro Vancouver’s housing starts show the significantly lower levels experienced in 2009. Also apparent is that growth has returned since a low point in early 2009, with levels improving in 2010 and 2011.
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Surrey, Vancouver, and Richmond make up the majority of the development areas, and much of this is in the form of apartments. Vancouver and Surrey markets remain the most active markets with each having approximately 20-25% of the total number of housing starts in the Metro Vancouver region.
FIGURE 3.3 HOUSING STARTS IN METRO VANCOUVER BY TYPE BY MUNICIPALITY, 2010-2011
Source: CMHC
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The following charts illustrate over the past decade the housing starts by unit type for the sub-regions of Metro Vancouver. It is important to note that these numbers can vary greatly from year to year, especially in the last few years with the changes in the economy and real estate market.
For the year 2010, Surrey was the fastest growing residential market in the entire Metro Vancouver with 3,600 total housing starts, up 48% from the previous year. Of the Surrey total approximately 50% of the starts were single-family houses, meanwhile row and apartment starts each take up roughly 20%. In Richmond for the same period there were 1,400 housing starts, of which approximately 60% were apartment units. Vancouver has focused mainly on apartment developments; over 75% of the 4,000 Vancouver housing starts in 2010 were apartments.
FIGURE 3.4 METRO VANCOUVER HOUSING STARTS BY SUB-AREA, 2001-2010
Total Housing Starts by Location, 2001-2010 25000 Surrey (All)
Langley (C & D) 20000 White Rock
15000 Delta Richmond
10000 Vancouver Burnaby & New West
5000 Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows Coquitlam/Port Coq./P.Moody 0 West Van / North Van (C & D) 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Overall for the region in 2010, slightly over half of all housing starts were apartments, and only 30% were single detached. The balance (18%) were townhouses / rowhouses / semi-detached units.
FIGURE 3.5 METRO VANCOUVER HOUSING STARTS DISTRIBUTION BY UNIT TYPE, 2010
Metro Vancouver Housing Starts by Type, 2010
Single Family 4533, 30% Semi Detached Row/Townhouse 7946, 52% Apartments
2324, 15% 414, 3%
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The North Shore of Metro Vancouver along with the Howe Sound area is generally considered a more attractive suburban location than many other suburban areas, as it offers an important west coast lifestyle by means of proximity to the mountains and forests, and close to both Vancouver and Whistler. However, because of limited available land supply, there have been few major land development projects in this area and the supply of new housing units has been limited. This has not satisfied the demand and thus prices tend to be very high. Only in the last few years has there been a significant number of multi-family unit starts, and single detached starts have been a declining share of the total number of starts.
Metro Vancouver Housing Starts by Type - Multi-Family Housing Market This section of the study provides an analysis of the multi-family market within the Metro Vancouver market. The analysis is important due to the possible inclusion of townhouse / row house / apartment housing types in the development. This section thus represents a crucial step in the determination of the most appropriate development strategy and mix of unit types and sizes. The objective of this section is to establish the historic and projected supply/demand for multi-family and the typical unit formats / sizes. It is very important to note that this project unit mix should reflect long-term trends and broader community planning objectives.
The trend towards higher density residential projects is well established and will only grow more important as the supply of undeveloped land in the region decreases. The multi-family market is fuelled by the increasing scarcity of land suitable for residential development. It is also impacted by the changing age structure of the population and smaller household sizes. Cost pressures have also resulted in apartment / townhouse condominiums becoming the typical starter home for new entrants into the housing market.
Current home buyers are more interested in proximity to work, shopping and recreation than in owning and maintaining both a front and back yard. Public parks and recreational amenities are replacing back yards. A large proportion of home buyers are new immigrants and many come from countries where multi-family housing (apartment condominiums) is the norm. However, within the multi-family sector, it is important to note the distinction between apartments, and townhouse units which offer ground-oriented access and yards which are desired by many households including families with children. Population growth, an ageing population base, the decrease in single-family land supply, are all-important factors that indicate long-term demand for multi-family projects. Multi-family housing is an increasingly important part of the residential market, and increasingly accepted as a form of housing.
In Metro Vancouver, all markets were very active between 2002 and 2007, with the multi-family market increasing by a significantly greater proportion than the single detached and semi-detached markets. To some degree this is due to limited supply of detached lots, limited supply of land in general, high land prices, and affordability on the part of the consumer.
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FIGURE 3.6 METRO VANCOUVER HOUSING STARTS BY TYPE TREND, 2001-2010
Metro Vancouver Housing Starts by Type, 2001-2010 25,000
20,000 Apartments 15,000 Row/Townhouses 10,000 Semi Detached
5,000 Single Family
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
It is expected that the demand for townhouses and apartments will increase for the region. Many important trends will support multi-family projects including: Major population growth. A serious and growing scarcity of vacant land. The need to make the best use of land and provide affordable ground-oriented housing. A large and fast growing seniors demographic who are relocating from their detached homes, and want to stay in their own community. The need for communities to be sustainable by reducing sprawl through encouraging a wider range of higher density housing types. Of the row house / townhouse unit starts in the region over the last decade, as shown on the following figure, levels have varied greatly by year, but a significant proportion have been in Surrey. Richmond also has a notable number of townhouses starts, but less than the Tri-Cities area.
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FIGURE 3.7 METRO VANCOUVER TOWNHOUSE STARTS, 2001-2010
Row House / Townhouse Starts, 2001-2010
3500 Surrey (All)
Langley (C & D) 3000 White Rock 2500 Delta
2000 Richmond
1500 Vancouver
Burnaby & New West 1000 Maple Ridge/Pitt 500 Meadows Coquitlam/Port Coq./P.Moody 0 West Van / North Van (C & D)
For apartment starts in the region, Vancouver and Burnaby / New Westminster have been significant contributors, with other areas such as Surrey and Tri-Cities also contributing.
FIGURE 3.8 METRO VANCOUVER APARTMENT STARTS BY SUB-AREA, 2001-2010
Apartment Starts, 2001-2010
16,000 Surrey (All)
14,000 Langley (C & D)
12,000 White Rock Delta 10,000 Richmond 8,000 Vancouver 6,000 Burnaby & New West 4,000 Maple Ridge/Pitt 2,000 Meadows Coquitlam/Port 0 Coq./P.Moody 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 West Van / North Van (C & D)
Metro Vancouver Housing Starts by Type – Single Detached For single detached house starts in the region, Surrey has been the most significant area of development. Nearly all of the single detached housing starts in Vancouver/UEL are construction of new houses on pre- existing single detached lots.
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FIGURE 3.9 METRO VANCOUVER SINGLE DETACHED HOUSING STARTS BY SUB-AREA, 2001-2010
Single Family Housing Starts, 2001-2010
6,000 Surrey
5,000 Langley (C & D)
White Rock 4,000 Delta
3,000 Richmond
Vancouver / UEL 2,000 Burnaby / New West 1,000 Maple / Meadows
0 Tri-Cities North Shore
The volume of single detached homes has varied in real terms and declined as a percentage of the total housing stock and new starts for the region. Between 2001-2008 the number of single and semi-detached units increased significantly, however the number of row and apartment condominiums increased by an even greater amount. The average over the past decade indicates that over 70% of all residential unit starts in the region were multi-family and this trend is expected to continue.
Squamish Housing Starts
The below chart shows the number of housing starts and completions in the District of Squamish from 2008 to mid 2011. The number of housing starts for this period has averaged 129 per year, with considerable fluctuation between years – numbers have been considerably lower since 2008. As for the type of housing units, approximately a quarter have been single detached units, and the balance different forms of multi-family. Overall the Squamish housing market is small compared to the very large Metro Vancouver market to the immediate south.
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FIGURE 3.10 SQUAMISH HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS, 2008-2011
Squamish Housing Starts by Type - 2008-2011 Unit Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 Annual Average Single 52 22 35 14 34 Semi 36 16 2 0 14
Row 84 0 27 0 28 Apt & Other 112 15 73 7 54 Total 284 53 137 21 129
Squamish Housing Starts by Tenure - 2008 -2011 Unit Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 Annual Average Freehold 98 38 40 18 53 Condo 186 0 27 0 53 Rental 0 15 70 3 23 Total 284 53 137 21 129
Squamish Housing Completions by Tenure - 2008-2011 Unit Type 2008 2009 2010 2011 Annual Average Single 67 37 24 17 41 Semi 42 20 12 0 19 Row 49 46 31 0 32 Apt & Other 186 130 84 2 101 Total 344 233 151 19 192
Note: For 2011 year, numbers are only for first half of year. Source: CMHC Housing Now, BC Region, Quarterly End of Year Reports
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Metro Vancouver Inventory / Absorption The supply of completed and unabsorbed new multi-family units trended higher in 2009 and 2010. While absorptions have remained at a healthy pace, an elevated number multiple-unit projects were completed, which has pushed the number of unsold units higher. As these homes are absorbed in the coming months, developers will start new projects. (Source: CMHC)
FIGURE 3.11 METRO VANCOUVER HOUSING INVENTORY, 2006-2010
Housing Sales Activity – Metro Vancouver Region Following the first half of 2011 with sellers’ market conditions, more balanced market conditions are expected to take hold during the remainder of 2011 in many areas of Metro Vancouver. Supply and demand conditions, as reflected by market classifications, have varied widely, with areas away from the city core showing more balanced conditions than those closer to the core. Core areas, including the cities of Richmond, Burnaby and Vancouver have a strong multi-cultural profile and a wide range of features important to home buyers, including proximity to the airport, public transit and transportation routes, important industrial and commercial employment opportunities and other community amenities. Conditions have also varied between home types, with multi-family home markets exhibiting more balanced conditions and single family home markets in sellers’ conditions in many areas. (Source: CMHC)
Following one of the strongest first quarters on record, MLS sales are expected to return to levels more in line with fundamentals. Sales are forecast to 36,000 sales in 2011. The ten-year average for Greater Vancouver is 35,086 sales, accounting for almost half of the provincial total.
In Metro Vancouver, single family home sales grew at a faster pace than sales of other home types in the first quarter of 2011. First quarter house sales increased 36% compared to the same period in 2010, while town home and apartment condominium sales were up 16% and 12%, respectively. This was the
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT case in virtually all municipalities, with West Vancouver, the West Side of Vancouver, Richmond and North Vancouver registering some of the strongest increases in single family home sales. More moderately priced areas such as Delta and Port Coquitlam also recorded increases in single detached MLS sales that were larger than those recorded for the region as a whole. (Source: CMHC)
Despite a very slow start to 2009, the resale housing market for British Columbia enjoyed relatively strong sales for 2009 and 2010. Homebuyers, including those purchasing homes for the first time, have been drawn into the housing market by improved affordability because of lower resale prices and low mortgage interest rates.
FIGURE 3.12 METRO VANCOUVER MARKET BALANCE, 2005-2011
MLS statistics continue to indicate a balanced market, however, with a sales-to-actives listings ratio of 15%, Greater Vancouver is in the lower end of a balanced market and has been trending toward a buyers’ market in mid 2011. (Source: REBGV)
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 4,685 in August 2011. This represents a 24.9% increase compared to August 2010 when 3,750 properties were listed for sale on the MLS and an 8% decline compared to the 5,097 new listings reported in July 2011. At 15,437, the total number of residential property listings on the MLS was nearly equal to the numbers for August 2010. (Source: REBGV)
The sales-to-new listings ratio is a leading indicator of price movement; continued sales and limited listings suggest prices will gradually rise. For most of the region, stronger sales, together with fewer new listings, have helped reduce inventories and returned the sales-to-new listings ratio from buyers' market conditions to sellers' market territory and back to a balanced market by mid 2011.
However it is important to note that the buyers’ / sellers’ market conditions are not the same throughout the region; the following figure shows how this differs by community. The western parts of the region are generally seller’s markets, and less so to the east. Squamish is a buyers’ market.
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FIGURE 3.13 METRO VANCOUVER MARKET BALANCE BY SUB-AREA, 2011
The following CMHC table summarizes the residential activity for Metro Vancouver to mid 2011. It shows by unit type the number of sales, number of listings and average prices for each quarter in 2010 and 2011. The number of sales and listings have generally been trending upwards.
FIGURE 3.14 GREATER VANCOUVER RESIDENTIAL ACTIVITY, 2006-2010
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Housing Sales Activity – Squamish and West Vancouver As reported by the Real Estate Board of the Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the following charts show the number of active unit listings, units listed, and units sold by unit type for both the Squamish and the West Vancouver markets since fall 2010.
For Squamish, the number of active apartment listings has trended up slightly since early 2011, with a significant number of units listed. This suggests a buyer’s market.
FIGURE 3.15 SQUAMISH MLS SALES TO NEW LISTING RATIO, 2010-2011
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For West Vancouver, the number of active listings has been relatively stable for apartments and detached units, and increased for attached units since early 2011, and the number of units listed has been declining. This suggests a balanced or seller’s market.
FIGURE 3.16 WEST VANCOUVER MLS SALES TO NEW LISTING RATIO, 2010-2011
Re-Sale Housing Prices The record-breaking real estate market cycle in Metro Vancouver, longer than normal at seven consecutive years, ended in 2008 amidst global economic challenges. After prices peaked in 2008, prices dropped by about 10-15% on average in 2009, and have since fully regained values.
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As reported by CMHC, single detached housing prices across Greater Vancouver have reached an average of around $1,000,000. The attached and apartment prices have also increased since the beginning of 2009 and currently are at $540,000 and $430,000, respectively.
The MLSLink Housing Price Index (HPI) benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver over the last 12 months has increased 8.5% to $625,578 in August 2011 from $576,597 in August 2010. (Source: REBGV)
Sales of detached properties on the MLS in August 2011 reached 1,020, an increase of 14.2% from the 893 detached sales recorded in August 2010, and a 25.4% decrease from the 1,367 units sold in August 2009. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 11.7% from August 2010 to $888,243.
Sales of apartment properties reached 955 in August 2011, a 2.1% increase compared to the 935 sales in August 2010, and a decrease of 34.8% compared to the 1,464 sales in August 2009. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 5.6% from August 2010 to $407,457.
Attached property sales in August 2011 totalled 403, a 7.8% increase compared to the 374 sales in August 2010, and a 33.9% decrease from the 610 attached properties sold in August 2009. The benchmark price of an attached unit increased 4.5% between August 2010 and 2011 to $511,433. (Source: REBGV)
The following charts show the 2011 percentage price change of MLS units by municipality within Metro Vancouver. Notice the significant difference between different geographic areas and by unit type.
FIGURE 3.17 METRO VANCOUVER DETACHED AND APARTMENT PRICE CHANGE, 2011
And the following chart shows the tremendous run up in prices for the Metro Vancouver region since 1977, and most significantly since about 2004.
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FIGURE 3.18 GREATER VANCOUVER AVERAGE HOUSING PRICES, 1977-2011
For Squamish, as of mid 2011, the benchmark price for a single detached house was $464,000 (the three month average was $506,000), which was down 6% over the past year and down 18% over the past three years. (Limited data is available on other forms of housing units).
FIGURE 3.19 SQUAMISH PRICE INDEX, 2008-2011
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For West Vancouver, as of mid 2011, the benchmark price for a single detached house was $1,761,000 (same as the three month average), which was up 27% over the past year and up 16% over the past 3 years. For apartments, the benchmark price was $739,000, and three month average price $712,000, up 21% over the past year and up 17% over the past three years. (Limited data is available on other forms of housing units).
FIGURE 3.20 WEST VANCOUVER PRICE INDEX, 2008-2011
3.2 UNIT SALE PRICES
For the comparable communities in the area, the current values for the limited number of MLS re-sale listings are approximately as follows:
Furry Creek single detached houses approximately 10 years old: $1.0 to $1.6 million Furry Creek serviced buildable house lots: $500,000 Furry Creek townhouses: $300-500 per sq ft Britannia Beach older single detached houses: $400,000-$600,000 Britannia Beach serviced single detached lots: $300,000-$350,000 Squamish single detached houses of various types and ages: $500,000 Squamish townhouses built recently: $250-300 sq ft Lions Bay single detached houses of varying ages: $800,000-$1.2 million These are only a rough guide to the potential value of the finished units at the new Britannia Beach community. Squamish has a significant inventory of newer townhouses for sale. The only directly comparable projects and prices would be those associated with the current Furry Creek community and new planned Porteau Cove community, which would offer similar master planned community attractions, location access, and ocean / mountain views as the subject site.
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3.3 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
With the increase in housing prices over the past years, housing affordability has become a pressing issue. However, increasing home prices have been somewhat offset by low mortgage rates.
Elevated home values appreciated ever more in British Columbia in the second quarter of 2011, making it even harder for the provincial households to own a home. Hefty price gains for bungalows, in particular, contributed to a significant loss of affordability in the province. The affordability measures for all housing types are now either at or very close to their worst levels on record. Such poor affordability almost entirely reflects the sky-high market valuations in the Vancouver area. Elsewhere in the province, home prices are taking a much lesser toll on homebuyers’ budget. Poor affordability will weigh on housing demand by BC households and pressure prices down next year. (Source: RBC Economics)
There is growing evidence that extreme unaffordability in the Vancouver area is driving local buyers away. Home resales fell since mid-winter in the area, and the earlier tight availability of homes available for sale eased off a little. This moderation in housing market activity did not translate into weaker prices, however—in fact, a double-digit surge in bungalow values marked the strongest increase among Canada’s major cities (Vancouver’s other housing types appreciated less rapidly). Anecdotal reports suggest that foreign buyers continue to propel higher-end property values, and part of the momentum created is cascading down to other market segments. The RBC measure for bungalows jumped by a whopping 10.4 percentage points in the second quarter to an all-time high of 92.5%. The measures for two-storey homes and condominium apartments rose 4.0 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively—both are also at or near to record high levels. (Source: RBC Economics)
FIGURE 3.21 METRO VANCOUVER AFFORDABILITY MEASURE
Source: RBC Economic Research
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3.4 HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
Metro Vancouver The following table shows the Fall 2011 Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation (CMHC) forecast for housing construction and sales activity for Metro Vancouver. This indicates the market having reached a low point in sales and starts in 2009, with an upward trend in 2010, 2011, and 2012. For this same period, starts are expected to increase; however the 2011 starts level will still be less than the 2008 numbers. It should be noted that within the 2008 and 2009 individual calendar years, there were substantial differences between specific quarters. (Source: CMHC)
FIGURE 3.22 VANCOUVER CMA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
Source: CMHC Housing Market Outlook Fall 2011
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More jobs and an expected shift to full-time positions from part-time employment will keep demand for new and resale housing firm in Metro Vancouver. Employment in the Vancouver CMA has recovered at a pace above the provincial average due to its more diversified local economy. CMHC is forecasting that the BC economy will expand by 3.0% in 2011, and 3.2% in 2012. The rebound in residential and non- residential construction will help fuel continued job growth. Non-residential projects already underway or expected to start construction during the next eighteen months include large institutional, transportation and infrastructure projects related to energy, health care and education. While the unemployment rate will remain elevated compared to levels prior to the economic downturn, job growth will move the unemployment rate lower during the forecast period. The housing market outlook is based on the assumption that employment in the Vancouver CMA will increase 2% in 2011 and 2.5% in 2012. (Source: CMHC)
A steady flow of new residents from other countries will continue to grow the number of households in the Vancouver CMA, supporting demand for both rental and ownership housing. Approximately 40,000 new residents will settle in the region both this year and next, adding nearly 20,000 new households each year. As the destination of choice for the majority of international migrants coming to British Columbia, Metro Vancouver receives a larger than average share of high income investor and entrepreneur class immigrants, who are more likely than other classes of immigrants to move quickly into home ownership for their primary residence, and for investment purposes. More than half of investor class immigrants to Canada in 2009 came to Metro Vancouver. (Source: CMHC)
Squamish For Squamish a projected population and housing demand over the long-term forecast was prepared by Urban Futures. In provides for the population reaching approximately 27,300 in 2031, and a total housing stock of approximately 11,400. This represents approximately 200-250 new households per year.
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District MunicipalityFIGURE of Squamish, 3.23 Housing SQUAMISHOccupancy HOUSING Demand, OCCUPANCY 2001 DEMAND, to 2031 2001-2031 Urban Futures Inc. Growth Scenario Total Single- Population Dwellings detached Attached 2001 14,993 5,384 3,231 2,153 2002 15,062 5,429 3,264 2,165 2003 15,176 5,498 3,313 2,185 2004 15,303 5,579 3,374 2,205 2005 15,462 5,674 3,434 2,240 2006 15,661 5,794 3,509 2,285 2007 15,898 5,931 3,595 2,336 2008 16,173 6,089 3,696 2,393 2009 16,484 6,246 3,792 2,454 2010 16,835 6,436 3,906 2,530 2011 17,212 6,631 4,023 2,608 2012 17,626 6,861 4,171 2,690 2013 18,063 7,084 4,311 2,773 2014 18,525 7,315 4,451 2,864 2015 19,007 7,562 4,607 2,955 2016 19,507 7,811 4,762 3,049 2017 20,022 8,053 4,902 3,151 2018 20,550 8,296 5,053 3,243 2019 21,086 8,563 5,222 3,341 2020 21,627 8,811 5,373 3,438 2021 22,172 9,063 5,531 3,532 2022 22,714 9,316 5,688 3,628 2023 23,254 9,562 5,838 3,724 2024 23,790 9,807 5,987 3,820 2025 24,320 10,046 6,138 3,908 2026 24,843 10,282 6,284 3,998 2027 25,359 10,524 6,441 4,083 2028 25,869 10,751 6,580 4,171 2029 26,369 10,977 6,716 4,261 2030 26,862 11,203 6,858 4,345 2031 27,346 11,421 6,990 4,431
For the Squamish area, based on a review of projected population growth and associated demand for housing units and forecasted housing supply based on active development projects and long-term development potential:
For single detached units, demand exceeds supply. The projected new supply of residential lots, including the Quest University lands and other sites will have a minimal impact on the market. New lots will be quickly absorbed by the market. For multi-family units, supply exceeds demand. The multi-family market will be more competitive than the detached market and given the location and views, the Quest University lands and other lands will be in greater demand than multi-family units in other areas. It is possible that some large scale residential developments will shift some of their units from multi- family to detached in order to speed absorption, however such down zoning is not typical, it is not always easy and it would be moderate in scale. In summary, the short and long-term demand for single detached housing in Squamish will remain strong and will continue to exceed supply. The attached housing market will be more competitive.
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3.5 PROJECT TARGET MARKET
The many positive factors which will likely lead to continued economic and population growth in both the short-term and long-term future include:
Improved transportation access to the region, namely the Sea-to-Sky Highway make the drive through the region both shorter and safer thereby allowing for the opportunity for additional visitors and more migration to the region. Residual interest and exposure from the 2010 Winter Olympics. Unique natural setting and proximity to many natural and recreational features; Squamish is located close to the sea and mountains which allows for many recreational activities for both residents and visitors. Squamish is capitalizing on this by branding itself as the ‘Outdoor Recreation Capital of Canada’. Proximity to both urban and natural amenities. Limited supply of land in the region driving ever increasing housing prices. Greater acceptance of multi-family housing forms. Significant population within Metro Vancouver nearing retirement age; many of them own valuable single detached houses and wish to downsize to smaller units. Limitations on the future development potential in Whistler and Pemberton; because of the predetermined cap on development in Whistler and the Agricultural Land Reserve and flood plains limiting development in Pemberton, there is limited opportunity for development in other Squamish Lillooet Regional District communities. As such, Squamish area is expected to attract a larger proportion of regional growth as it has a vacant land base. Demographic and societal trend towards more active retirees, and desire to be close to urban amenities yet also close to nature. Strong international immigration, particularly affluent Asians. Limited supply of similar master planned projects in the area; the only competition would be Furry Creek and Porteau Cove. Luxury level prices could be achieved for this unique and amazing project. Demand would be strong for this type of project which would represent a significantly proportion of new residential units in both the North Shore and the Squamish markets. Increases in local commercial development in Squamish, such as potential for large format stores in the community. Development of Quest University; the new university will bring significant economic diversity to Squamish and be a destination for employees, faculty, and students. The net effect of these factors is continued population growth for the Squamish area and an increase in the community’s role as the administrative and commercial centre for the Squamish Lillooet Regional District. In addition, due to the upgrade in the highway to Vancouver and Whistler and the relative proximity to Vancouver, the Squamish area will increasingly become a bedroom community for Vancouver as well as Whistler workers.
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The target market for this new Britannia community will include:
Affluent residents near retirement age or newly retired who live in the Metro Vancouver region. Of those who still work, many of them will have jobs located in downtown Vancouver which is easily accessible from the subject site. These households will be recreationally active and have few children still living at home. They could choose to relocate from their single family detached home to an apartment or townhouse. These types of households want to be located near urban amenities such as Vancouver while being immersed within a natural setting and close to various outdoor recreational activities. The Britannia project provides an ideal location for such. Other locations, such as the Okanagan and Vancouver Island are too remote and travel time and costs too high to be directly comparable. Young Sports and Outdoors Oriented: This is a large group of young people that would like to stay in close proximity to Whistler and Squamish and its recreational amenities, although cannot afford costly Whistler real estate. The resident profile, which includes some live/work studios, includes some high tech workers as well as artists and persons who enjoy sports and the outdoors and who are not tied to employment in the city. Former Whistler Residents and Older Sports-Minded: This is a group of high net worth mature people that would like to stay in close proximity to Whistler and its recreational amenities. They have sold their valuable Whistler home and want to use some of the sale proceeds for a lower cost home closer to Vancouver. Active Commuters: This is a group that commute to employment in the Vancouver area or Whistler. They are typically younger couples that like the active lifestyle in Squamish with its proximity to outdoor sports in all seasons. Fully one third of the Squamish workforce is employed outside the community and many have chosen to live in Squamish for lifestyle or affordability reasons.
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4 . 0 RETAIL MARKET OVERVIEW
This section of the study outlines the retail market opportunity and potential for retail development at the subject site. It outlines such issues as retail industry standards, retail trends, market supply, market demand, trade area, and competition. Demand for retail goods is essentially a function of the trade area population and average consumer spending on retail goods, modified if necessary, by resident age and income characteristics. The analysis is based upon the future population associated with the new community. See Appendix for more information.
West and North Vancouver and Squamish have most forms of convenience and destination retail development. The ideal type of retail development at the subject site would be retail serving the local population and to a lesser extent drive by traffic. This could be in the form of an open air hybrid of lifestyle, and neighbourhood shopping centre formats with mixed-use components including high density residential and office and business space.
Through the process of elimination, the only viable industry standard form of retail development would be street front oriented retail in a mixed use project.
The retail at the subject site could be anchored by a supermarket with retail at grade along a commercial high street with residential above most of the stores. This estimated retail area includes a substantial highway commercial component of restaurants and service stations which will face the Highway and compliment the high street.
4.1 CLASSIFICATION OF SHOPPING CENTRES
It is important to have an understanding of the basic nature of retail areas and shopping centres. Recent retail development trends have focused on open air shopping centres, street-front retail, high-density mixed use centres, and freestanding large scale stores. In general, 50% of each centre’s floor space is occupied by the anchor tenant and 50% by small shops and store. The ratio is lower for busy locations such as downtown and higher at remote locations which need the anchors to act as a destination and bring customers to the site.
An anchor tenant is a large scale typically chain store which has an AAA covenant (a solid financial firm where there is little or no risk of default) and generates extra customer traffic for nearby stores (i.e. a supermarket chain).
The standard retail classifications are as follows.
Strip Centre: A strip centre is an attached row of stores or service outlets managed as a coherent retail entity, with on-site parking conveniently located in front of the stores. These vary in size and range from 8,000 sq.ft. to 30,000 sq.ft.
Neighbourhood Centre: This centre is designed to provide convenience shopping for the day-to-day needs of consumers in the immediate neighbourhood and is typically anchored by a supermarket. Neighbourhood centres have an average size of 90,000 sq ft across North America and never exceed 150,000 sq ft in size including all office space.
Community Centre: A community centre typically offers a wider range of apparel and other soft goods than does the neighbourhood centre. It is anchored by a supermarket and small proportional department
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Lifestyle Centre: A centre that generally imitates a traditional street front retail district with sidewalks, streets and pedestrian areas. This is typical in new suburbs where consumers want alternatives to standard power centres and large unattractive parking lots. These centres try to offer a more appealing shopping destination with interesting stores, public spaces and thoughtful architecture and design features. They mix food, personal services and convenience shopping with apparel and accessories. There are few of these in Canada to date, such as Park Royal Village, a component of the Park Royal Shopping Centre in West Vancouver.
Regional Centre: This centre type provides general merchandise (a large percentage of which is made up of apparel retailers) and services in full depth and variety. The anchor tenants are typically full-line department stores, promotional department stores, supermarkets and various big box tenants.
Super-regional Centre: Similar to a regional centre, but because of its larger size, a super-regional centre has more anchors, a deeper selection of merchandise, and draws from a larger population base.
Fashion/Specialty Centre: A centre composed mainly of upscale apparel shops, boutiques and craft shops carrying selected fashion or unique merchandise of high quality and price. These centres do need to be anchored, although sometimes restaurants or entertainment can provide the draw of anchors. The physical design of the centre is very sophisticated, emphasizing a rich decor and high quality landscaping.
Power Centre: A centre dominated by several large anchors, including discount department stores, off- price stores, warehouse clubs, or "category killers”.
Theme/Festival Centre: These centres typically employ a unifying theme that is carried out by the individual shops in their architectural design and, to an extent, in their selection of merchandise. The biggest appeal of these centres is for tourists, as restaurants and entertainment facilities can anchor them. These centres, tend to be adapted from older, sometimes historic, buildings, and can be part of mixed-use projects. The locations tend to have some sort of natural feature such as water, or a tourist attraction. Granville Island in Vancouver is an excellent example, as is Ghirardelli Square in San Francisco.
Outlet Centre: Usually located in rural or, occasionally, in tourist locations, outlet centres consist mostly of manufacturers outlet stores selling their own brands at a discount price. These are not a major factor in Canada, with the only such mall being the newly developed CrossIron Mills north of Calgary.
In terms of street-front retail districts they tend to be in the following general categories:
Historic Heritage District and Retail Area. These tend to be tourist-oriented such as Gastown in Vancouver. Neighbourhood Commercial Street. These retail centres are typical of urban areas across North America, and are where local residents obtain most of their food, services and other convenience needs.
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Fashion District. These areas have overcome the initial negative competitive impact of enclosed malls and many are now thriving. The strength of these street-front retail areas inspires Lifestyle mall developers who are trying to emulate the best elements of streetscapes in a single master planned project. Entertainment District or precinct with cinemas, restaurants/cafes, and nightclubs. Business-Serving Retail such as on many downtown streets. These areas are dominated by restaurants and personal or business services.
4.2 NEIGHBOURHOOD SHOPPING CENTRE TRENDS
Neighbourhood shopping centres provide merchandise for daily living needs. They include convenience goods such as food, drugs, financial service (banks) and personal services (beauty salons). A supermarket is the principal tenant in this type of shopping centre and is often complemented by a drugstore. This is often the most important type of retail in the area.
The following table represents the average operating results and other data for 21 Canadian neighbourhood shopping centres. The average Canadian neighbourhood centre is 61,452 sq ft with the largest one being 86,775 sq ft and including office space. It is neither advised, nor possible for a neighbourhood centre anywhere in the region to exceed 80,000 sq ft in size.
A typical neighbourhood centre is approximately 60,000 sq ft in size and generates sales of just over $500 per sq ft of gross leasable area.
Food stores such as supermarkets comprise almost half (46.5%) of neighbourhood shopping centre floor space. Other categories are food service (9.0%), personal service (8.4%), drugstores (6.5%), other miscellaneous retail (5.9%), and general merchandise stores (4.7%).
4.3 RETAIL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
As with any retail market study, it is important to address a number of important retail development trends influencing the study area.
Regional enclosed malls have lost retail market share over the past 15 years. They tend to be costly to operate and inconvenient to shop at for the majority of customers. This is due to such factors as their lack of convenience for many residents within the mall’s large regional trade area. Regional enclosed malls are declining form of retail development and very few have been built in North America since 1990. Despite this, they have maintained dominance over some segments of the industry, particularly apparel. Without a large apparel selection, this type of retail development is not effective. Without full line department store anchors, this type of development is inconvenient without the end benefit of shopping there. Regional malls can rely on infrequent but substantial shopping trips by rural residents. Malls can be ineffective premises for retailers due to their inconvenient locations and/or inconvenient space within mall area plans. Internal-only locations with weak exposure to major arterials do not offer sufficient visibility for retailers seeking the maximum exposure to potential consumers. Stand-alone anchors or anchors with just a few ancillary stores are becoming ever more common due to their simplicity, convenience, and low operating costs.
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Commercial streets are increasingly attractive locations for retailers as they offer maximum customer convenience and independence from mall landlords. They also allow retailers to become an integral part of customers’ ever more differentiated lifestyles. Mass marketing is growing less effective than in the past and customers seek more unique and socially diverse experiences. Street-front retailing is making a major comeback, in part, because it is convenient and it offers a number of unique and interesting owner-operator tenants. The large chains are all trying to get locations on good, high traffic streets in order to get closer to their customers, both physically and in terms of their lifestyle. This trend is only expected to grow as it gains its strength from the ever more pressing need for convenience with respect to the local population base. There is strong demand from supermarkets for in-fill sites in inner-urban areas. The supermarkets tend to thrive with the associated denser population base and higher traffic volumes that such locations provide. This would spin off benefits to the immediate area and make related businesses viable. The major drawback is that there are few large vacant sites in the downtown areas. Virtually every major high profile retail development site is being proposed as a mixed use development. Whenever the site is near rapid transit or at a highway interchange, developers are proposing street front retail, anchor tenants, structured parking, and extensive residential around the periphery of the retail facility. A pure retail development is no longer deemed viable or the highest and best use for high quality locations. Big-box specialty retail anchors which sell product lines such as: books, crafts, toys, office supplies, computers, electronics, sporting goods, shoes, pet supplies, home furnishings and furniture, and home improvement merchandise, have grown to dominate shopping centre development. The big- box stores are now seeking out street-front retail locations in urban markets and are modifying their floor plans for these locations. These big-box tenants tend to locate on their own stand alone sites when possible. Modern malls have high anchor-to-CRU (commercial retail unit) ratios. This trend is evident in virtually every recent development. Street-front commercial districts, with their more numerous, finer grain retail, are being differentiated from malls, and offer a favourable and complementary shopping alternative. Dozens of retail impact studies have been conducted when large new stores enter older communities and in general there has not been any measurable impact. Neighbourhood centres anchored by supermarkets and drugstores play a very strong role within the local community. They generate high and consistent rental revenue and have low associated leasing risk. These are a very popular form of retail development. Most new retail projects are inner urban, mixed use and high density. Many new urban projects have a substantial multi-family component. In general, retail is ever more specialized and should be focused on specific customer needs. There is less speculative building than in the past. The wholesale to retail industry, typified by stores such as Costco, is still doing very well. The large discount chains are doing better than full price chains in the recession. Wal-Mart has done relatively well and taken major steps to “improve” and “green” their practices and image. Internet shopping is still growing steadily and is serving an ever bigger function in the market.
4.4 RETAIL COMPETITION
Metro Vancouver is only a short drive away and residents of both the subject site and Squamish would do at least a quarter to a third of all of their shopping in the Metro Vancouver area. The most convenient area is the 280 store Park Royal in West Vancouver. With 1.2 million square feet of shopping, food and
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By far the most competitive retail area is Squamish. The area has only a few of the major retail tenants, such as: Wal-Mart, Save On Foods, Nesters, Home Depot, Extra Foods, Canadian Tire and London Drugs. The town centre consists of one and two story buildings on Cleveland and Second Avenues, housing numerous independent retailers, cafes and service providers such as insurance agents. Marketing itself as the “Outdoor Recreation Capital of Canada”, Squamish has a number of businesses that supply recreational sports, along with some inns and pubs that support that culture.
Chain retailers have located in high-profile locations away from the Squamish Downtown. The Business Park is the value oriented “big-box district” and the target market tends to be lower middle class. While many retail categories are represented, this market is subject to serious retail outflow to Metro Vancouver of as much as one third of the market. By far the most important competition for the subject site are the three Squamish supermarkets, Save On Foods, Extra Foods and Nesters. It is expected that the Save On Foods in particular, as the largest and most conveniently located, would attract customers from across the region including Britannia Beach. As it is large and only a ten minute drive north, it is the most competitive.
FIGURE 4.1 THE RETAIL AREA
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4.5 DELINEATION OF THE TRADE AREA AND DEMOGRAPHICS
When determining the geographic extent of the retail trade area it is important to define the type of shopping center and contrast the anchors with other competitors in the region.
UNIQ UE ANCHO RS ATTR ACT C US TOM ERS FROM T HE ENTIRE REGION Shopping centers are defined by their size and types of anchor tenants and by their overall scale and surrounding land uses. Anchor tenants tend to give malls, their image and identity in a market.
P ATTERNS OF RESIDEN TI AL DEVELOPMENT The patterns of residential development are considered on a macro scale only. There is only a minor population base living along the Highway 99 corridor. Given the regional accessibility of the site, the trade area clearly entails a small geographic area oriented a small distance towards the south.
DELINEATION OF T HE TR ADE AREA The trade area includes only Britannia Beach North and South and Furry Creek to the south.
4.6 RETAIL DEMAND
This section of the study outlines retail demand across the trade area for each retail category.
RET AI L EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL In order to estimate retail demand, it is necessary to establish the average amount of retail dollars spent by residents. This spending represents the retail expenditure potential that is available to the existing and planned stores located within the Trade Area. Total retail spending at each store type, for all of BC, is based upon actual store sales and is obtained from Statistics Canada.
These total sales by store type can be divided by the number of persons in the province in order to accurately and reliably indicate average retail demand per capita. This assumes that tourist retail inflow and outflow approximately balances as would be expected for province-wide data. This data is thus much more reliable than metropolitan-wide statistics where inflow and outflow strongly influences sales but cannot be defined.
Per capita spending per store, for the average BC resident is indicated below. The key issue in this study is that the typical resident spent approximately $12,166 per year on retail items as of 2011. This amount is expected to move higher in real terms (only slightly more than general inflation) over the long-term. The different retail categories, such as clothing and shoes, are all indicated for the year. Once these figures are multiplied by the population retail demand or expenditure potential by store type is clearly established.
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FIGURE 4.2 RETAIL EXPENDITURES IN BC - PER CAPITA ($2011) RETAIL SALES PER CAPITA - BC 2011 2016 2021 New car dealers $1,748 $1,793 $1,838 Used and recreational motor vehicle and parts dealers $424 $435 $446 Gasoline stations $1,291 $1,324 $1,357 Furniture stores $246 $252 $258 Home furnishings stores $210 $215 $221 Computer and software stores $50 $51 $52 Home electronics and appliance stores $475 $487 $500 Home centres and hardware stores $608 $623 $639 Specialized building materials and garden stores $208 $213 $219 Supermarkets $2,307 $2,365 $2,425 Convenience and specialty food stores $214 $220 $225 Beer, wine and liquor stores $763 $782 $802 Pharmacies and personal care stores $678 $695 $712 Clothing stores $542 $555 $569 Shoe, clothing accessories and jewellery stores $165 $169 $174 General merchandise stores $1,462 $1,498 $1,536 Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores $410 $420 $431 Miscellaneous store retailers $366 $375 $384 Total $12,166 $12,474 $12,789 Source: Site Economics, Statistics Canada
Per capita figures can be multiplied by the total trade area population to determine the overall level of retail demand (total area expenditure potential), projected over a series of years. In order to ensure a conservative analysis, average spending patterns will not be altered to reflect any unique aspects of the trade area despite the higher average incomes.
It is expected that there are perhaps 3,000 residents of the trade area currently and that it will grow by 600 new residents per year to 9,000 by 2021.
The following figure multiplies the average retail expenditures by store type times the trade area population in order to indicate the approximate scale of demand.
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FIGURE 4.3 TRADE AREA RETAIL EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL ($2011)
Retail Expenditure Potential -Trade Area 2011 2016 2021 Local Popultion 3000 6000 9000 New car dealers $5,245,365 $10,755,634 $16,540,841 Used and recreational motor vehicle and parts dealers $1,273,391 $2,611,090 $4,015,536 Gasoline stations $3,872,745 $7,941,073 $12,212,393 Furniture stores $737,591 $1,512,433 $2,325,935 Home furnishings stores $630,268 $1,292,366 $1,987,500 Computer and software stores $149,831 $307,228 $472,479 Home electronics and appliance stores $1,425,602 $2,923,200 $4,495,521 Home centres and hardware stores $1,822,520 $3,737,082 $5,747,172 Specialized building materials and garden stores $624,283 $1,280,094 $1,968,627 Supermarkets $6,921,115 $14,191,764 $21,825,186 Convenience and specialty food stores $642,714 $1,317,887 $2,026,748 Beer, wine and liquor stores $2,288,131 $4,691,818 $7,215,439 Pharmacies and personal care stores $2,033,494 $4,169,684 $6,412,461 Clothing stores $1,624,537 $3,331,117 $5,122,848 Shoe, clothing accessories and jewellery stores $495,264 $1,015,540 $1,561,776 General merchandise stores $4,384,740 $8,990,920 $13,826,928 Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores $1,230,203 $2,522,534 $3,879,347 Miscellaneous store retailers $1,097,375 $2,250,171 $3,460,485 Total $36,499,169 $74,841,637 $115,097,223 Total Retail excludes all Auto / vehicle related expenditures $26,107,668 $53,533,839 $82,328,453
In summary, there is ample demand in retail trade within the trade area.
SUPERMARKET / FOOD STORE The anchor tenant for the retail space is the food store. It is expected to be perhaps 25,000 sq.ft. in size and be warranted in perhaps 2018 or 2019. It would have some expansion potential after 2026 when the area is entirely built out. According to the attached analysis, by 2021 the demand for a supermarket will equal 50,000 sq.ft. and the subject site would only require a 50% market share, excluding inflow and outflow sales.
FIGURE 4.4 SUPERMARKET DEMAND AND SUPPLY AT THE SU BJECT SITE
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 NEW HOUSING 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 POPULATION 3,000 3,600 4,200 4,800 5,400 6,000 6,600 7,200 7,800 8,400 9,000
EXPEDITURE PER CAPITA $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 $2,653 EXPENDITURE POTENTIAL $ 7,959,282 $ 9,551,139 $11,142,995 $12,734,852 $14,326,708 $15,918,565 $17,510,421 $19,102,278 $20,694,134 $22,285,991 $23,877,847
STORE SALES PER SQ.FT. $450 $450 $450 $450 $450 $450 $450 $450 $450 $450 $450 WARRANTED FLOOR SPACE 17,687 21,225 24,762 28,300 31,837 35,375 38,912 42,450 45,987 49,524 53,062 SUBJECT PREMISES SPACE 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 REQUIRED MARKET SHARE 141% 118% 101% 88% 79% 71% 64% 59% 54% 50% 47%
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FIGURE 4.5 SUPERMARKET DEMAND CONTRASTED WITH SUPPLY AT THE SUBJECT SIT E
RESTAURANT Food service forms an important group of tenants, however they are not subject to the same sales and rent ratios as retailers. The area obviously needs this kind of service for residents and this analysis includes a general feasibility study of a large, 5,000 sq ft restaurant facility. The method of this type of analysis is financial rather than economic and it stems from the notion of how many customers are needed to ensure economic feasibility.
Based upon the summary statement of projected or required income provided below, a large restaurant would require an average of over 300 customers per day spending an average of $10 each for a daily gross income of $3,000. This would be sufficient to cover all costs associated with operations including a significant amount of rent. Occupancy costs are set at 9% of revenue, however this could be higher, and rents from these tenants can be significant. These tenants are feasible and ample food service premises should always be provided for.
There could be an exciting new theme restaurant, offering lounges and full line dining which would create activity well into the evening. This is in addition to an extensive number of coffee, fast food and ethnic locations.
4.7 RETAIL TENANTS AND RENTS
Rents are typically a ratio of sales. This ranges from a low of 4% for an anchor tenant to the typical 10% for small stores to a high of 16% for fast food. It is clear that the subject site will enjoy above average sales and thus at least average rents. Based on an analysis of rent the project is expected to achieve the following:
Banks: 2,500 - 4,000 sq ft @ $300 psf Inline CRU's (anchored project): 1,000 - 2,500 sq ft @ $25 - $30 psf Fast Food: @ $25 - $30 psf Office: 2nd Floor @ $18 - $20 psf Pads on the Highway: $35 psf
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FIGURE 4.6 TYPICAL RETAIL REVEN UE PRO FORM A
TENANT NET RENTAL AREA RATE NET 2016 2017 2018 PER SQ.FT. SQ.FT. TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL 2016-2020 2021-2026 12% Supermarket $ 22 $ 25 25,000 $ 550,000 $ 550,000 $ 550,000 Drugstore $ 28 $ 31 5,000 $ 140,000 $ 140,000 $ 140,000 Coffee $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Insurance $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Beauty Salon $ 35 $ 39 1,200 $ 42,000 $ 42,000 $ 42,000 Printing Copy $ 35 $ 39 1,200 $ 42,000 $ 42,000 $ 42,000 Garden Store $ 35 $ 39 1,700 $ 59,500 $ 59,500 $ 59,500 Travel Agent $ 35 $ 39 800 $ 28,000 $ 28,000 $ 28,000 Pet Store $ 35 $ 39 2,500 $ 87,500 $ 87,500 $ 87,500 Sandwiches $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Optometrist $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Burgers $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Japanese $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Chinese $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Gourmet Coffee $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Pub $ 35 $ 39 4,500 $ 157,500 $ 157,500 $ 157,500 Pizza $ 35 $ 39 1,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 $ 35,000 Noodle Shop $ 35 $ 39 1,100 $ 38,500 $ 38,500 $ 38,500 Other including anchors $ 30 $ 34 40,000 $ 1,200,000 $ 1,200,000 $ 1,200,000 Bank or Credit Union $ 35 $ 39 3,000 $ 105,000 $ 105,000 $ 105,000 Offices at retail level $ 22 $ 25 5,000 $ 110,000 $ 110,000 $ 110,000 $ 29 $ 32 100,000 $ 2,875,000 $ 2,875,000 $ 2,875,000
$ 5.00 $ 5.50 100,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 1.00 $ 1.10 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 100,000 $ 4.00 $ 4.40 100,000 $ 400,000 $ 400,000 $ 400,000 $ 10.00 $ 11.00 100,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 1,000,000 $ 1,000,000
$ 3,875,000 $ 3,875,000 $ 3,875,000
5.0% 5.0% 5.0% $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 143,750 $ 143,750 $ 143,750 $ - $ - $ - $ 2,681,250 $ 2,681,250 $ 2,681,250 -$35,500,000 $2,681,250 $2,681,250 $2,681,250
SALE VALUE 2011 DISCOUNT CAP RATE IRR NPV ROI ROE $44,687,500 7.00% 6.00% 11% $10,117,607 29% 86%
The following table shows the potential retail tenants for the high street retail component.
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FIGURE 4.7 POTENTIAL RETAIL TEN ANTS FOR THE HIGH ST REET EMPHASIS ON FOOD AND CONVENIENCE
FOOD AND DRUG RETAIL APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES SUPERMARKET MEN'S APPAREL GROCER/PRODUCE MEN'S APPAREL HIGH END GROCER SPECIALTY/ETHNIC MEN'S APPAREL ETHNIC CONVENIENCE STORE LADY'S APPAREL FISH MARKET LADY'S APPAREL HIGH END MEAT MARKET LADY'S APPAREL ETHNIC BAKERY UNISEX PHARMACY UNISEX ETHNIC DRUGSTORE CHILDRENS" APPAREL FOOD SERVICE CHILDREN'S APPAREL ETHNIC LICENSED RESTAURANT FABRIC FAST FOOD BRIDAL RESTAURANT / CAFÉ MATERNITY RESTAURANT ETHNIC THRIFT/SECOND-HAND MERCHANDISE SPECIALTY COFFEE/TEA UNIFORMS OTHER FOOD RETAIL OTHER APPAREL SERVICE JEWELLERY BARBER + BEAUTY SALON SHOES TRAVEL AGENCY HOUSEHOLD / FURNISHINGS VIDEO RENTAL HOUSEWARES SHOE REPAIR SMALL APPLIANCES DRY CLEANER/LAUNDRAMAT LARGE APPLIANCES PRINTING / COPY HARDWARE STORES ENTERTAINMENT GARDEN SUPPLIES FITNESS CENTRE ELECTRONICS / HOME ENTERTAINMENT VETERINARIAN/PET GROOMING FURNITURE / HOME FURNISHINGS OTHER DURABLE GOODS/PAINT & WALLPAPER OFFICE/FINANCIAL SPECIALTY RETAIL STREETFRONT MEDICAL/DENTAL SPORTING GOODS INSURANCE/REALTOR/INVEST. BROKER BICYCLE SHOPS FINANCIAL/BANK/CREDIT UNION BOOKSTORES ACCOUNTING/LEGAL/NOTARY TOYS/HOBBIES BUSINESS SERVICES OFFICE SUPPLIES OPTOMETRIST HEALTH & BEAUTY ITEMS OTHER CARDS & STATIONARY GENERAL MERCHANDISE BEDDING & LINEN JUNIOR DEPARTMENT STORE ART GALLERY/FRAMING GENERAL STORE CAMERAS / FILM / PHOTO GENERAL STORE ETHNIC ANTIQUES VARIETY/DOLLAR STORE GIFTS OTHER OPTICAL AUTOMOTIVE PETS & PET SUPPLIES GAS STATION LIQUOR STORE / BEER AND WINE TIRES/PARTS/ACCESSORIES FLORIST SERVICE RECORD & TAPE STORES AUTO / MOTORCYCLE SALES MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS CELLULAR TELEPHONES
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5 . 0 OFFICE MARKET OVERVI EW
This section of the study provides an overview of the Metro Vancouver office market; there is no notable office market in the Squamish area. An office component may be part of the commercial development of the subject site, however there will be limited demand for office space. In fact, the Metro Vancouver region in generally has a very small office market compared to many other North American cities. Any demand at the subject site will be in the form of office space to serve local residents and businesses only. This office space could be combined with flex light industrial space. See Appendix for more information.
5.1 MARKET CONDITIONS
After a challenging 2009 period, the increasing level of confidence in the Canadian economy created positive reverberations in Metro Vancouver’s office market, with continued levels of positive absorption, and increase in leasing activity. The vacancy rate in the second quarter of 2011 was 7.5%, down from previous periods. Vancouver has a strong downtown office market that stood up remarkably well against the downturn, and weakened suburban markets that continue to be dragged down by the slow US recovery. However, there are positive signs on the horizon, particularly in Burnaby, which is gaining traction following a tough period that saw the completion of its new development pipeline, with few pre- leasing commitments and low demand. (Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
Metro Vancouver’s office inventory is geographically segmented into two major markets containing approximately 50 million square feet of space. The Central Area (or Central Business District), which includes Vancouver’s Downtown Core and the Broadway Corridor, contains 29 million square feet of office space, roughly 82% of which is located in the downtown core. The Suburban Area contains 21 million square feet of office space and represents 42% of Metro Vancouver’s overall office space.
FIGURE 5.1 METRO VANCOUVER OFFICE MARKET SUMMARY
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
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5.2 OFFICE MARKET OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS
The Metro Vancouver office market has experienced an influx of new supply since 2007. The focus of this activity is the region’s suburban markets, where most of the new space had been added. That said there are some major projects within the Vancouver downtown core that are currently awaiting approval and are expected to commence shortly. These projects would add a significant amount of space to a currently tight downtown market and would likely result in increased vacancy in Class B space in this submarket as some tenants upgrade their space. If approved, these projects are not anticipated to be completed prior to 2014.
Metro Vancouver’s office market outlook continues to remain positive. The economic recovery continues to take hold. Real estate indicators are following suit. Although the vacancy rate is projected to rise due to new construction, Metro Vancouver has emerged from the largest economic downslide since 1982 in a relatively advantageous position.
The implication for office development in the North Shore and the subject site specifically is that there is demand for a limited amount of smaller unit size office space, possibly associated with flex light industrial development to provide tenants with desired flexible accommodations. This office space should be targeted towards new businesses established as part of the new master planned community that will be serving the new population and possibly to a lesser extent the population of Squamish. This could include medical and related offices.
No major office tenants will be seeking space in this location. Instead office units should be designed to be low-rise buildings, small in size and flexible units, and readily accessible to the surrounding population. The tenure should include strata ownership in order to allow businesses / investors to own the units and benefit from any appreciation, especially during times of low mortgage rates. An office development on part of the site would contribute to the economic and employment growth for the community, providing local jobs for the new residents. An area of perhaps 1 acre could be set aside for this land use. Several more acres could be set aside for industrial uses also.
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6 . 0 INDUSTRIAL MARKET OV ERVIEW
This section of the study outlines past industrial trends and forecasts future industrial demand for the Metro Vancouver and Squamish regions. Providing some industrial lands as part of the development may provide opportunity for additional employment activity in the immediate area for the new population. The supply of developable industrial land should be sufficient to accommodate a share of regional economic and employment growth, however recognizing industrial land demand fundamentals for the area. See Appendix for more information.
6.1 MARKET CONDITIONS
BC has considerable trade exposure to the US, but its expanding export market with the faster-growing Asia-Pacific economies is a positive force. Industries projected to post the highest growth rates are resource extraction, processing, construction, and those related to consumer spending. Forestry and wood manufacturing is emerging from deep recession lows, but may not fully recover until 2013. Mining is experiencing a revival due to new supply sources and strong expansion. As well, expected future gains in residential activity will keep the construction sector growing. (Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
The Canadian economy has regained all output lost during the recession. Growth in the first quarter of 2011 was the fastest since early 2010 but is expected to slow down during the second half of 2011. This is due to a decline in personal spending and resale housing activity, the main vehicles of Canada’s economic growth, with consumers becoming worn out after heavy spending. Commercial real estate activity usually lags economic recoveries, making the recent improvement in the industry particularly notable. Vacancy rates in most major centres are decreasing while rental rates are either stabilizing or once again moving higher. It is also anticipated that a greater proportion of investment will arise from private companies fuelling the commercial real estate market going forward. (Source: Colliers)
The Metro Vancouver industrial market is currently Canada’s tightest industrial market with a relatively low vacancy rate. In total, Metro Vancouver’s market accounts for approximately 13% of the country’s industrial inventory, ranking it as Canada’s third largest industrial market, behind Toronto and Montreal. The following table summarizes current market conditions, noting the total regional inventory of 188 million sq ft of industrial space, overall vacancy rate of 5.0%, and ranges for lease and land prices.
FIGURE 6.1 Q2 2011 METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL MARKET SUMMARY
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
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6.2 INDUSTRIAL MARKET OUTLOOK AND IMPLICATIONS
Up to early 2008, the Metro Vancouver economy was strong despite external pressures, however the economy has since slowed. Facing market uncertainty due to the slowdown in the US and the global financial crisis, business activity is expected to remain slow in the medium term.
Fundamental shifts in market dynamics are taking place, which bode well for strengthening demand in 2011. Historically, companies have been more interested in acquiring freestanding buildings but, given the scarcity of this asset class, they are turning to strata units as an equally attractive investment. This shows that the drivers of growth have changed since the recession began. Gone or reduced in size are many US-based industries that relied on North America-wide trade; growing are domestic companies focused mainly on serving Metro Vancouver and the rest of the province. A strong housing market and increasing consumer demand are expected to drive domestic industrial growth through 2011.
Vacancy is expected to continue stay higher than past levels as new supply hits the market and economic pressures resulting from the financial crisis and the downturn in the manufacturing sector limit leasing demand, sales activity and new construction. In line with analysts’ predictions for the beginning of economic recovery, industrial sector activity improved in 2010. Despite a drop-off in sales, an inherent shortage in serviced industrial land is expected to keep land prices reasonably stable. Rental rates should also remain steady despite increases in supply as tenants compete for quality space.
Western Canada was believed to be in a somewhat better position than the Central and Eastern provinces; however, with continued fluctuations in oil and commodity prices, the disparity between these two areas has decreased. Recovery is to continue as commodity prices are expected to stabilize and begin to rise, which is anticipated to increase activity in the market. The most noticeable trend in the Metro Vancouver area is the short supply of industrial land, particularly in Vancouver, Richmond, and Burnaby, the three largest sub-markets in the region. Along with competing uses, the lack of land supply has been driving up land costs and forcing developers to be creative in their efforts to meet the demand for new space. (Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
The implications for industrial and business developments across the region are very clear. There is very strong future demand for well-located, serviced industrial lands. Such industrial lands are essential to the future economic vitality of individual communities and the wider region. The current inventory of well located, vacant, industrial land in the region is limited.
The subject site is not well located relative to the larger and more accessible industrial areas in the Metro Vancouver region and associated markets. There are already established industrial lands in Squamish. Any industrial development on the site should be a limited amount of high value, high quality, strata flex space. These light industrial buildings could accommodate smaller sized flex space units, built with office components. The tenure should include strata ownership in order to allow businesses / investors the opportunity to own the units and benefit from any appreciation, especially during times of low mortgage rates.
The market for these industrial buildings would likely be local serving industries to the new community population. Potentially some could serve the Squamish market or be port related uses. This industrial development on part of the site would contribute to the economic and employment growth for the community, providing local jobs for the new residents.
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7 . 0 DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT AN D V AL U E
7.1 PROPOSED LAND USES
This section of the study details the recommended land uses/densities and development concept for the Application area with the RGS boundary of the subject site and the values according to this development form. The site could include a number of different land uses and alternative scenarios / concept plans to accommodate different types of units and yields. These values should also be adjusted as the conceptual land use plan is refined.
The overall concept is for a massive master planned mixed use community at Britannia. The proposed conceptual land use plan prepared by the project planner / architect is shown in the following section. It shows retail / commercial / high density residential uses in the central parts of the large site; as well as office, light industrial and business zone areas; hotel / resort and marina and park along the ocean; and lower density residential through much of the balance of the site.
Residential A number of different forms and densities of residential development are possible on the site. These include single detached houses, townhouses, and lofts and apartments. The site is well suited for all types of residential units offering an excellent high profile and convenient location with recreational amenities. This could include approximately 3,000 residential units. Reflecting consumer preferences, many of the units should be ground-oriented design.
Retail The retail component would entail a total of 185,000 sq ft of space including a supermarket anchor and other mid/small sized tenants. The tenant mix would be dominated by a grocery store, and small shops and stores designed to serve the local market and extensive food retail and food service. This would be a pedestrian oriented centre, with some surface parking and structured parking. The customer base would be drawn from the new local community and drive by traffic. These buildings would include residential lofts above the retail units.
Office There would be limited demand for office space in this area. The concept is for approximately 20,000 sq ft of professional and service office space serving the local population.
Industrial There would be limited demand for industrial space in this area. The concept is for 11 acres of land devoted to industrial uses. which should include typical flex space design units with approximately 180,000 sq ft. at full build out.
Tourism / Accommodation There would be demand for tourism related facilities including one to three hotels, resort facilities and a marina. This would complement the other uses and activities in the new community and increase demand for retailers. These components are not included in the pro forma valuation and economic impact section.
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FIGURE 7.1 CONCEPTUAL LAND USE PLAN – SCHEME 1
7.2 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Some of the main features and assumptions of the financial analysis must be described prior to assessing and recommending mixes of land uses and densities. The first step of the analysis is to define the concept plan and then estimate all costs and revenues associated with that plan. The plan and analysis is not based on an aggressive planning program but rather on something visionary for the area yet achievable at this excellent site.
Method of Revenue Pro Formas The pro formas comprise the elements which make up the financial analysis for the proposed concept plan. Every attempt has been made to ensure consistency for the land uses, in terms of the costs and revenues, such that the findings can be consistently reviewed, even if some assumptions and yields / floor areas are changed after further refinement.
Concept Plans The first step of the analysis is to explore different scenarios which outline the development concept in terms of functional site layout and estimated unit yield and floor areas. There are numerous considerations in this step which include: floor space ratios, parking requirements, tenant demands, building setbacks, terrain, etc
The unit yield used in this analysis are vital factors in revenue and cost projections. This form of analysis is designed to remain relatively constant between land uses. Any measurement which may be amended
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT applies to all options and therefore it should not alter the findings. The financial analysis is not based on a too dense or aggressive planning density but rather something achievable.
Revenue Pro Formas The second step is to create a revenue pro forma to outline the overall income which the development will generate based upon the units / land sales and gross leasable area / unit yield. The revenue pro forma is relatively accurate as it is based directly on a moderate series of reasonable site plan assumptions.
The total net rental revenue generated is used to determine the total value. The added net revenue created by a development plan minus the construction costs provides the financial results for the development strategy and indicates the residual land values. The annual revenue is capitalized to indicate value.
Construction Cost Estimates The third step is to prepare a project cost estimate. This step is the most difficult to determine because there are numerous different cost items, many of which can vary widely, even after construction has started. The construction costs used in the analysis have been prepared conscientiously based upon all salient information and according to development industry standards. Further cost estimates should be completed as the project advances and the concept plan is refined. Detailed and final costs are not possible until development is pending as this study is early in the development process.
Sale Value and Uncertainty In order to establish the development costs and revenues a summary financial analysis has been prepared. Further the project provides for a contingency allowance. This budget is of a preliminary nature and it must be refined with more detailed information as the project and development progresses. Using basic industry standards and a set of reasonable assumptions, the following outlines the potential development and establishes the range of land values.
Servicing Costs A newly serviced area could expect the costs of servicing to be paid at the time of development and spread across the absorption period. The typical development method for estimating on and off site costs is to assign average costs per residential unit or per square foot of commercial or industrial space or per acre of land developed. This will be eventually be supplemented by more detailed estimates of large scale road works and other infrastructure, in the future.
Construction Costs and Revenues The hard cost estimates are based upon industry standards for the region and preliminary engineering cost estimates. Soft costs vary considerably and are approximately 25% of hard costs (these include a contingency factor for possible cost overruns).
Financial evaluation includes a discussion of the financial benefits, costs and sensitivities. The financial evaluation includes estimated project costs and revenues. A number of cost and revenue assumptions were made for the preparation of this financial pro forma analysis.
Market Competition / Absorption The only real competition to the new Britannia community are the two other master planned communities in the area, Furry Creek and Porteau Cove. The development in Squamish is an entirely different type of market, and there is little significant development activity occurring on the North Shore. The recent housing in the historic Britannia Beach / Mine area is of medium quality and very limited quantity.
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It is estimated that Furry Creek could accommodate another 1,000 housing units and Porteau Cove 1,400 units. Assuming that these 2,400 units are developed over the more compressed 10 year time period as the subject site, this would provide for an annual supply of 240 units from these two projects.
As comparison, for the subject site with 3,000 residential units, the average annual supply would be 300 units over 10 years. This totals potentially 540 housing units annually for the three master planned communities in this area. Under this scenario, the subject site would capture approximately 55% of this market. However, note that it is expected that the low density residential component of the project would be absorbed in the earlier part of the development program.
This absorption number is much higher than in the past, however given the uniqueness of this area, improved highway, huge market of Metro Vancouver to the immediate south, and market evolving trends, this supply can be reasonably absorbed. If competition from the other two projects is strong and demand not as robust as expected, there may be the opportunity to adjust the project unit mix or phasing schedule.
Assumptions The absorption table assumes the project commences in two years with a 10 year duration. It is expected that the project will be a success and absorbed quickly. The apartments will take a much longer duration to build and sell. The lower density residential units are generally distributed through the earlier part of the project and the mid rise apartment units would occur in the latter stages. The office and industrial components would be developed in the middle part of the development program. The amount of proposed annual absorption is considered reasonable given the uniqueness of this project.
The highway interchange and other major community infrastructure components would be required at the beginning of the project.
Building construction costs are based on industry average for higher quality development. Sale and lease values are estimated, and adjusted, based on most comparable values in the area, namely Furry Creek for residential and Squamish for commercial and industrial.
Specifically, the estimated gross revenue for the project by unit type is as follows: Single Detached Houses: $350 per sq ft Townhouse: $328 per sq ft Stacked Townhouses: $345 per sq ft Lofts: $433 per sq ft Apartment: $451 per sq ft Retail: $33.50 rent per sq ft Office: $22.00 rent per sq ft Industrial: $13.50 rent per sq ft
7.3 RESIDUAL LAND VALUE
This rare and attractive site should be developed to its highest and best use. The development program parameters are modelled on realistic assumptions and provide an insight into the number and nature of the variables that will affect land values. The residual model by necessity makes a series of general
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT assumptions. These estimates can be further refined as the project advances and additional information is available.
The model which follows is in two parts. The first part indicates land use, building area, absorption, and site values. The second part is the residual model detailing general financial parameters for each land use. All site development costs – both hard and soft costs – total $1.55 billion. This includes the $1.25 billion costs related to the construction of the buildings.
Early in the project would be substantial expenditures to construct the necessary highway interchange and other community infrastructure before development could occur and land / units sold. A discount rate of 5% is used to determine the current net present value of the project future cash flow – this discount reduces the value of the future cash flow by approximately 25%. Thus the net present value of the land should be reduced by a similar factor, providing for a current value of approximately $9 million.
Based on this general analysis the site should be able to support a current land value of approximately $12 million. Most of this value is in the form of the low and medium density residential components of the project. The other uses such as office, retail, industrial, and mid rise apartment, have limited or negative net values. There are also significant environmental areas and parklands which will be preserved but do not have any direct value.
The value is impacted by the high costs of servicing and the approval process. This project could likely be developed over 10 to 15 years. This value estimate is based upon very broad industry standard assumptions. This is a preliminary analysis and a much more detailed analysis should eventually be completed to further define the estimated but still unknown costs and values.
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FIGURE 7.3 LAND USE AND BUILDING ABSORPTION SCHEDUL E AND VALUES WITH RESIDUAL MODEL
SINGLE FAMILY TOWNHOUSES STACKED TOWNHOUSE LOFT APARTMENTS RETAIL OFFICE INDUSTRIAL TOTAL DEVELOPMENT SPECIFICATIONS FACTOR ACTUAL FACTOR ACTUAL FACTOR ACTUAL FACTOR ACTUAL FACTOR ACTUAL FACTOR ACTUAL FACTOR ACTUAL FACTOR ACTUAL SITE AREA ACRES / SQ. FT. 30.0 1,306,800 60.0 2,613,600 15.0 653,400 10.0 435,600 17.0 740,520 10.0 435,600 1.0 43,560 11.3 492,228 154.3 FLOOR SPACE RATIO 0.25 0.70 1.00 1.50 2.00 0.50 0.50 0.40 TOTAL GROSS BUILDING AREA SQ. FT. 326,700 1,829,520 653,400 653,400 1,481,040 217,800 21,780 196,891 5,380,531 BUILDING EFFICIENCY 100% 100% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% TOTAL NET BUILDING AREA SQ. FT. 326,700 1,829,520 588,060 588,060 1,332,936 196,020 19,602 177,202 5,058,100 AVG RESIDENTIAL UNIT SIZE / NO. OF UNITS 2970 110 2259 810 1960 300 1225 480 1025 1,300 3,000 NUMBER OF PARKING STALLS 220 1,620 600 720 1,950 392 39 266 5,807
DEVELOPMENT COSTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE (PRO RATED) 6.1% $10,625,810 34.0% $59,504,534 12.1% $21,251,619 12.1% $21,251,619 27.5% $48,170,337 4.0% $7,083,873 0.4% $708,387 3.7% $6,403,821 $175,000,000 SITE PREPARATION COSTS PER ACRE $150,000 $4,500,000 $150,000 $9,000,000 $150,000 $2,250,000 $150,000 $1,500,000 $150,000 $2,550,000 $150,000 $1,500,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000 $1,695,000 $23,145,000 BUILDING CONSTRUCTION COSTS @ SQ. FT. $185 $60,439,500 $180 $329,313,600 $171 $111,731,400 $183 $119,572,200 $184 $271,770,840 $185 $40,293,000 $147 $3,201,660 $80 $15,751,296 $952,073,496 STRUCTURED PARKING @ STALLS (AVG) $0 $0 $0 $35,000 $25,200,000 $35,000 $68,250,000 $35,000 $13,721,400 $0 $0 $0 $0 $107,171,400 TOTAL HARD COSTS $75,565,310 $397,818,134 $135,233,019 $167,523,819 $390,741,177 $62,598,273 $4,060,047 $23,850,117 $1,257,389,896 ARCH / PERMITS @ TOTAL HARD COSTS 5.0% $3,778,265 5.0% $19,890,907 5.0% $6,761,651 5.0% $8,376,191 5.0% $19,537,059 5.0% $3,129,914 5.0% $203,002 5.0% $1,192,506 $62,869,495 FINANCING FEE @ TOTAL HARD COSTS 1.5% $1,133,480 1.5% $5,967,272 1.5% $2,028,495 1.5% $2,512,857 1.5% $5,861,118 1.5% $938,974 1.5% $60,901 1.5% $357,752 $18,860,848 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CHARGES - PER SQ. FT. $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5.00 $1,089,000 $5.00 $108,900 $5.00 $984,456 $2,182,356 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT CHARGES - PER RES. UNIT $15,000 $1,650,000 $15,000 $12,150,000 $15,000 $4,500,000 $15,000 $7,200,000 $15,000 $19,500,000 $0 $0 $0 $45,000,000 PROPERTY TAXES DURING SALES @ GROSS SQ. FT. $1.00 $326,700 $1.00 $1,829,520 $1.00 $653,400 $1.00 $653,400 $1.00 $1,481,040 $2.00 $435,600 $2.00 $43,560 $2.00 $393,782 $5,817,002 LEGAL, DISPLAY, MARKETING @ RESIDENTIAL UNIT $10,000 $1,100,000 $10,000 $8,100,000 $10,000 $3,000,000 $10,000 $4,800,000 $10,000 $13,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $30,000,000 TENANT INDUCEMENTS AND LEASING COSTS $33.50 $6,566,670 $22.00 $431,244 $13.50 $2,392,228 $9,390,142 INTERIM BUILDING LOAN @ CONSTRUCTION PERIOD 10.0% $3,778,265 10.0% $19,890,907 10.0% $6,761,651 10.0% $8,376,191 10.0% $19,537,059 10.0% $3,129,914 10.0% $203,002 10.0% $1,192,506 $62,869,495 CONTINGENCY / MISC / PROVISIONAL HARD COSTS 5.0% $3,778,265 5.0% $19,890,907 5.0% $6,761,651 5.0% $8,376,191 5.0% $19,537,059 5.0% $3,129,914 5.0% $203,002 5.0% $1,192,506 $62,869,495 TOTAL SOFT COSTS $15,544,976 $87,719,512 $30,466,848 $40,294,830 $98,453,334 $18,419,985 $1,253,612 $7,705,736 $299,858,833 TOTAL DEVELOPMENT COSTS $91,110,286 $485,537,646 $165,699,867 $207,818,649 $489,194,511 $81,018,258 $5,313,659 $31,555,853 $1,557,248,729 DEVELOPMENT REVENUES & LAND VALUES NET RENT / CAP RATE $33.50 6.5% $22.00 6.5% $13.50 6.0% AVG. SALE PRICE PER UNIT $1,039,500 $740,843 $676,269 $530,479 $461,914 $515 $101,025,692 $338 $6,634,523 $225 $39,870,468 $150,979,688 AVG. SALE PRICE PER SQ. FT. $350 $114,345,000 $328 $600,082,560 $345 $202,880,700 $433 $254,629,980 $451 $600,487,668 $0 $0 $0 $1,772,425,908 GROSS REVENUES $114,345,000 $600,082,560 $202,880,700 $254,629,980 $600,487,668 $101,025,692 $6,634,523 $39,870,468 $1,919,956,591 SELLING COSTS @ RESIDENTIAL UNIT $15,000 $1,650,000 $15,000 $12,150,000 $10,000 $3,000,000 $10,000 $4,800,000 $10,000 $13,000,000 $34,600,000 SELLING COSTS % RETAIL / OFFICE / INDUSTRIAL 3.0% $3,030,771 3.0% $199,036 3.0% $1,196,114 $4,425,921 NET REVENUE $112,695,000 $587,932,560 $199,880,700 $249,829,980 $587,487,668 $97,994,922 $6,435,487 $38,674,354 $1,880,930,671 DEVELOPER PROFIT % INTEREST @ % OF DEV. COSTS 20.0% $18,222,057 20.0% $97,107,529 20.0% $33,139,973 20.0% $41,563,730 20.0% $97,838,902 20.0% $16,203,652 20.0% $1,062,732 20.0% $6,311,171 $311,449,746 NET SITE LAND VALUE $3,362,657 $5,287,385 $1,040,859 $447,601 $454,255 $773,012 $59,096 $807,330 $12,232,196 NET LAND VALUE @ ACRE $112,089 $88,123 $69,391 $44,760 $26,721 $77,301 $59,096 $71,445 $79,275
Note: This valuation and impact section is for only the 154 acre area, plus Museum lot A and the Crown waterfront lands, which together form the Application area within the RGS boundaries. The hotel / resort and marina components of the project are not included in the pro forma valuation and economic impact sections.
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LAND (ACRES) TOTAL 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL Single Family 30.0 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 30.0 Townhouse 60.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 60.0 Stacked Townhouse 15.0 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 15.0 Loft 10.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 10.0 Apartment 17.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 17.0 COMMERCIAL Retail 10.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 10.0 Office 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Industrial 11.3 5.7 5.7 11.3 TOTAL AREA 154.3 - - 25 25 31 31 18 18 2 2 2 2 154.3
REVENUES PER ACRE 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 1,737,825,908 Single Family $3,756,500 28,173,750 28,173,750 28,173,750 28,173,750 ------112,695,000 Townhouse $9,798,876 97,988,760 97,988,760 97,988,760 97,988,760 97,988,760 97,988,760 - - - - 587,932,560 Stacked Townhouse $13,325,380 33,313,450 33,313,450 33,313,450 33,313,450 33,313,450 33,313,450 - - - - 199,880,700 Loft $24,982,998 41,638,330 41,638,330 41,638,330 41,638,330 41,638,330 41,638,330 - - - - 249,829,980 Apartment $34,558,098 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 587,487,668 COMMERCIAL 143,104,763 Retail $9,799,492 16,332,487 16,332,487 16,332,487 16,332,487 16,332,487 16,332,487 - - - - 97,994,922 Office $6,435,487 - - 3,217,744 3,217,744 ------6,435,487 Industrial $3,422,509 - - 19,337,177 19,337,177 ------38,674,354 TOTAL REVENUES - - 276,195,544 276,195,544 298,750,464 298,750,464 248,021,794 248,021,794 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 58,748,767 1,880,930,671
EXPENSES PER ACRE 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 1,439,360,959 Single Family $3,037,010 22,777,571 22,777,571 22,777,571 22,777,571 ------91,110,286 Townhouse $8,092,294 80,922,941 80,922,941 80,922,941 80,922,941 80,922,941 80,922,941 - - - - 485,537,646 Stacked Townhouse $11,046,658 27,616,645 27,616,645 27,616,645 27,616,645 27,616,645 27,616,645 - - - - 165,699,867 Loft $20,781,865 34,636,442 34,636,442 34,636,442 34,636,442 34,636,442 34,636,442 - - - - 207,818,649 Apartment $28,776,148 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 489,194,511 COMMERCIAL 117,887,770 Retail $8,101,826 13,503,043 13,503,043 13,503,043 13,503,043 13,503,043 13,503,043 - - - - 81,018,258 Office $5,313,659 - - 2,656,830 2,656,830 ------5,313,659 Industrial $2,792,553 - - 15,777,927 15,777,927 ------31,555,853 TOTAL EXPENSES - - 228,376,093 228,376,093 246,810,849 246,810,849 205,598,521 205,598,521 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 48,919,451 1,557,248,729
NET ANNUAL REVENUE - - 47,819,451 47,819,451 51,939,616 51,939,616 42,423,273 42,423,273 9,829,316 9,829,316 9,829,316 9,829,316 323,681,942
Annual Discount Rate 5.0% Net Present Value $242,557,518 Land and Developer Profit No price inflation
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7.4 ECONOMIC IMPACTS
This preliminary review provides an indication of the scale and contribution of the project to the region in terms of additional economic, employment and taxation activity. The first phase of the proposed master planned community includes the following components:
a diversity of housing types (approximately 3,000 residential units) community accommodating approximately 7,500 new residents employment generating uses (approx 185,000 sq ft retail, 20,000 sq ft office, 180,000 sq ft industrial) community facilities such as recreation centre, fire station, etc recreation areas, trails, parks and open spaces The development project provides the region with a unique opportunity to create a new master planned community and accommodate significant growth for the region. The following analysis provides greater detail about the calculations and assumptions applied to arrive at the economic development findings. The findings indicate that the proposed project will make a significant contribution to the employment and economic markets of the region both during initial construction and ultimate occupation.
Employment Impacts The estimated total development / construction costs for the project is approximately $1.55 billion over 10 years ($155 million annual average, although much of this activity will be in the earlier part of the development program). It is a widely used industry assumption that approximately half of such construction spending is on local wages. The Government of British Columbia Ministry of Finance provides multiplier information for all industries including construction employment. They indicate a multiplier ratio of somewhere between 1.2 (direct only) and 1.6 (considering migration). Assuming an average of 1.4 multiplier for the direct construction jobs is a conservative assumption to determine the indirect and total number of jobs.
Based on a preliminary review of current and forecasted economic and employment data, the project will contribute directly to 1,300 construction jobs annually equating to 13,000 job years of construction employment, and indirectly to 520 jobs annually totalling 5,200 job years. The total direct and indirect jobs are 1,820 for each of the 10 years of construction (on average) or 18,200 job years for the entire project.
Project Size Total Hard Costs $ 1,257,389,896 Soft Costs $ 299,858,833 Total Servicing/Construction Costs $ 1,557,248,729
Percent of Costs as Local Labour 50% Total Local Labour Expenditure $ 778,624,365 Duration of Project Construction (years) 10 Average Local Labour Expenditure per Year $ 77,862,436 Average Annual Salary per Construction Employee $ 60,000
Local Employment Total Number of Direct Jobs per Year 1,298 Total Number of Direct Employment Years for Development 12,977 Employment Multiplier 1.40 Total Number of Indirect Jobs per Year 519 Total Number of Indirect Employment Years for Development 5,191 Total Number of Direct and Indirect Jobs per Year 1,817 Total Number of Direct and Indirect Employment Years for Development 18,168 Upon completion and full occupation of the project, it is estimated that the first phase of the community will have an assessed value of approximately $1.9 billion. Based on this approximate value and estimated
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Property Taxation Impacts Based on the expected amount of retail, office, and industrial space as part of the project, there is expected to be approximately 830 ongoing jobs at the new community. To define the number of permanent jobs from the development, typically an area per employee value is applied to generate the total number of jobs. The existing market standard for office is 250 sq ft and higher for retail per employee, whereas industrial, based on the larger area typically required for industrial operations 600 sq ft per employee is standard. Assuming an average annual salary of $40,000 for the commercial / retail jobs and $60,000 for the industrial jobs, this equals over $39 million annually in salaries once the project is fully occupied.
Project Value Net Building Sq Ft Value / Sq Ft Project Value Project Final Value - Residential 4,665,276 $ 380 $ 1,772,425,908 Project Final Value - Retail + Office 215,622 $ 499 $ 107,660,215 Project Final Value - Industrial 177,202 $ 225 $ 39,870,468 Total Project Value $ 1,919,956,591
Ongoing Annual Total Property Taxes/Levies Total Value Mill Tax Rate Annual Taxes Annual Property Taxes - Residential $ 1,772,425,908 6.0 $ 10,634,555 Annual Property Taxes - Retail + Office $ 107,660,215 22.0 $ 2,368,525 Annual Property Taxes - Industrial $ 39,870,468 18.0 $ 717,668 Total Annual Property Taxes $ 13,720,749
Ongoing Employment of Complete Project sq ft per Job Est. # Jobs Avg. Income Annual Salaries Retail + Office 400 539 $ 40,000 $ 21,562,200 Industrial 600 295 $ 60,000 $ 17,720,208 Total 834 $ 39,282,408
Economic Impact For the total economic impact associated with the project, using a 10% discount rate on the future cash flow of property taxation provides for a net present value of $137 million. In addition, the net present value of the ongoing employment salaries would be approximately $392 million. Plus the construction / development costs of approximately $1.55 billion provides for a total initial cost and net present value of direct economic effects of approximately $2.1 billion. The secondary economic effects (indirect effects and induced effects) may be another $626 billion. In sum, the total direct and indirect economic impact associated with the construction and occupation of this project would be in the order of $2.7 billion. This represents a tremendous positive contribution to the local and regional economy, employment opportunities, and tax base.
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Ongoing Annual Property Taxes/Levies Annual Property Taxes $ 13,720,749 Discount Rate 10.0% NPV of Perpetual Revenue Stream $ 137,207,486
Ongoing Employment of Complete Project Jobs Salaries $ 39,282,408 Discount Rate 10.0% NPV of Perpetual Revenue Stream $ 392,824,080
NPV of Direct Economic Effects $ 530,031,566
Total Initial Development/Servicing/Construction Costs $ 1,557,248,729
Total Initial Costs and NPV of Direct Economic Effects $ 2,087,280,295
Economic Multiplier / NPV Secondary Economic Effects 1.30 $ 626,184,089
NPV of all Direct and Secondary Economic Effects $ 2,713,464,384
7.5 SUMMARY / CONCLUSION
The proposed development of the new South Britannia community offers a tremendous opportunity for the region to accommodate a significant amount of population growth, spur economic development, and provide increased employment opportunities. Some 3,000 new residential units and approximately 7,500 new people, along with associated commercial space and employment activity, would be provided with increased amenities and services in the immediate area. The development would provide both tremendous economic and employment opportunities for the region during the extended construction period and upon full completion and occupation.
This project would provide a tremendous benefit to the regional economy and workforce, generating thousands of new jobs, providing thousands of new homes, accommodating thousands of new consumers driving retail demand in the area, and generating significant taxation revenues for the local government and other agencies. A larger and more diverse regional land base and economy would provide for greater opportunities for people to live and work within the region.
The demand for a new high quality master planned community in this prime location between Vancouver and Whistler is strong and will be sustained by long-term economic and societal trends. The proposed development project, with approximately 3,000 resident units and complementary retail, office, industrial, tourism, community facilities, and recreational uses, is financially viable.
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8 . 0 APPENDIX 1 – SQUAMISH AR E A SWOT ANALYSIS
In 2005, a study was completed looking at the potential and opportunities for Squamish and included the following SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) related to factors that influence investment in the Squamish economy. Many of these items would still apply now and also apply to the wider area beyond Squamish. (Source: Squamish Retail, Commercial and Industrial Trade, Investment and Marketing Strategy)
Strengths:
Location. Squamish has proximity to both a world-class city (Vancouver) and a world-class resort (Whistler) and strategic location on the road linking the two. This provides Squamish residents and businesses with access to the amenities of the two, and also brings millions of tourists through the community on an annual basis. Surplus labour currently commuting to Greater Vancouver or Whistler. Net commuting out of Squamish each day represents several thousand potential workers, many of whom would presumably prefer to work in Squamish if similar-quality jobs were available. Cheaper land than major urban centres, including Greater Vancouver. Within a regional context, industrial and commercial space in Squamish competes with locations in Greater Vancouver. Squamish land costs and lease rates are lower than Greater Vancouver locations with the possible exception of the outer suburbs. This advantage may diminish over time, depending on the demand for Squamish industrial space and the provision of new developable land. Quality of life. The small-town setting, spectacular natural environment, and incredible array of world- class outdoor recreational opportunities provide a highly desirable quality of life for many potential business owners and workers. Squamish also has a lower cost of living than Greater Vancouver, but this advantage compared to many of the suburbs is expected to diminish over time as demand for Squamish land exceeds supply. Port connections through Squamish Terminals. Squamish Terminals is a deep-sea port that has traditionally shipped mainly forest products and some other break-bulk commodities. This is an advantage for companies either exporting large, bulky products, or importing similar intermediate goods. Inter-modal transportation connections. The deep-water port is fully integrated with CN Rail and therefore with the North American rail network. On a strict cost basis for shipping by rail to other North American locations, Squamish is usually moderately more expensive than shipping from Greater Vancouver. Expanding education sector. Post-secondary education undergo significant expansion with the opening of Sea-to-Sky / Quest University, a major expansion of Capilano College, and the new BC Centre for Tourism Leadership and Innovation. These facilities provide greater education and training options for companies and their staff and also attract education-related services and amenities that enhance overall community quality of life. Weaknesses:
Location and access. Squamish’s location relative to Greater Vancouver can also be a negative. First, it allows local businesses and residents to obtain goods and services in the metropolitan area that would otherwise be provided in their home community. Squamish firms are also at a disadvantage
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relative to Greater Vancouver firms if they require closer access to an international airport, the US border, universities, research facilities, or other specialized locations. Many of these issues are already being addressed in some fashion with improvements to a four-lane standard for the Sea-to-Sky Highway, the significant expansion in post-secondary education in the community, and investigation of a passenger ferry service between downtown Squamish and downtown Vancouver. Airport facility and service level. Squamish Airport has no regularly scheduled air service and limited runway size and facilities limit transportation-reliant and airport-related opportunities. The lack of services to the airport is a significant barrier to even the expansion of existing uses. Port limitations. Squamish Terminals is limited to break-bulk shipping, meaning that it is not capable of shipping bulk commodities (e.g. coal, sulphur, grain) or containers. It has not surplus land for adjacent industrial development and road access is limited. Lack of housing choice and affordability. Lack of housing options makes the community less attractive for both businesses and individuals considering relocation. This issue will be at least partially offset in the short to medium term by the thousands of multi-family and single-family units planned for construction over the next ten years. Public attitude to development. General population has ambivalent or negative attitude toward some potential growth opportunities, particularly if they are not regarded as “clean” or if there are negative visual impacts. Most residents appear supportive, however, of economic diversification and a movement away from the community’s heavy industrial past. Lack of critical mass and small labour pool. The small size of many firms in industries such as wood manufacturing limits their ability to achieve economies of scale in production and marketing. Their small size is due in part to a limited labour pool, particularly for some highly-skilled and specialized occupations. The expected rapid population growth in the community in the coming years will help to offset this problem. Limited industrial space. There are limited facilities available for new industrial companies as existing inventory has been converted to commercial use. Based on the land inventory analysis, a further 400 acres of industrial and commercial land will be required by 2031 to accommodate expected employment growth. Potential infrastructure limitations. The sewer and water system requirements of future industrial, commercial and residential growth have not been definitively studied, so future limitations are possible.
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9 . 0 APPENDIX 2 – ESTIMATED SQUAMISH L AN D U S E INVENTORIES IN 2005
The following points are taken from a 2005 study completed by Coriolis Consulting identifying Development Opportunities in Downtown Squamish:
Residential Estimated that townhouse units make up about 40% of total housing demand and apartments about 25% for the period 2005 to 2016. Estimated total annual housing demand is 180-285 units from 2005 to 2016, and 200-340 units from 2017 to 2031. This excludes demand from purchasers of recreational property / second homes.
Retail Estimated total retail inventory of 650,000-700,000 sq ft of retail and service space. Total retail development has averaged about 20,000-30,000 sq ft per year, almost all along the highway. Squamish residents make a significant portion of their shopping outside of the community. If retail leakage can be reduced, could support more retail space.
Office Squamish contains about 200,000 sq ft of office space, most of it downtown. New office space development and demand has been in the 5,000-10,000 sq ft range per year.
Industrial There is a significant amount of undeveloped industrial lands that could be serviced and made available for future growth (100+ acres).
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1 0 . 0 AP P E N D I X 3 – METRO VANCOUVER WORK FORCE
JOBS BY MAJOR INDUSTRY CLASSIFICATION, METRO VANCOUVER, 2006
JOBS BY MAJOR INDUSTRY GROUPS, BY SUB-REGIONS IN METRO VANCOUVER, 2006
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LABOUR FORCE WORKING IN HOME MUNICIPALITY, 1996 - 2006 1996 2006 Employed in Employed in Employed Home Employed Home Municipality Labour Force Municipality Labour Force Municipality Anmore 915 4.90% 1,020 12.70% Belcarra 345 7.20% 410 8.50% Bowen Island 1,615 2,085 42.00% Burnaby 89,225 31.80% 102,125 35.20% Coquitlam 52,350 23.50% 59,555 27.90% Delta 43,455 32.40% 50,635 32.10% Electoral Area 'A' 4,565 31.40% 5,160 47.70% Langley City 10,515 25.50% 12,160 23.00% Langley Township 43,695 32.50% 51,180 35.40% Lions Bay 680 29.40% 775 31.00% Maple Ridge 30,670 32.80% 35,935 35.40% New Westminster 28,115 19.30% 32,330 20.20% North Vancouver City 22,525 29.50% 26,060 29.60% North Vancouver District 38,730 28.50% 43,310 26.50% Pitt Meadows 7,525 16.30% 8,585 17.80% Port Coquitlam 24,770 19.80% 28,905 22.30% Port Moody 13,930 12.00% 15,535 16.00% Richmond 76,835 46.80% 87,180 53.10% Surrey 166,700 31.60% 198,885 38.50% Vancouver 272,870 60.60% 310,640 61.30% West Vancouver 17,900 37.60% 19,570 37.70% White Rock 7,860 24.10% 9,240 21.40% Vancouver CMA 955,790 38.90% 1,104,760 42.10%
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CHANGE IN NUMBER OF METRO VANCOUVER JOBS BY CENSUS TRACT 1996-2006
Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census
METRO VANCOUVER EMPLOYMENT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Metro Vancouver Labour Force, 1996-2010 Metro Vancouver Unemployed Rate, 1996-2010 1400 9.0% 1200 8.0%
1000 7.0% 6.0% 800 5.0% 600 Unemployment 4.0% 400 Part-time Employment 3.0%
200 Full-time Employment 2.0% 1.0% 0 0.0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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1 1 . 0 AP P E N D I X 4 – SCHOOL DEMAND ANALYS IS
The following map shows the general location of the five sites selected for the review of school age children, followed by detailed boundaries for each site.
Study Sites and Subject Site
Coquitlam City Centre
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Edmonds Burnaby
New Westminster
Port Moody Downtown
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Surrey City Central
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1 2 . 0 AP P E N D I X 5 – HOUSING MARKET
BC HOUSING STARTS BY COMMUNITY, 2010-2011
Source: CMHC
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METRO VANCOUVER UNABSORBED INVENTORY TRENDS, 2002-2011
METRO VANCOUVER MLS LISTINGS AND PRICES
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1 3 . 0 AP P E N D I X 6 – RETAIL MARKET
SHOPPING CENTRE TYPES AND CATEGORIES – NORTH AMERICA
Source: International Council of Shopping Centers
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CANADIAN NEIGHBOURHOOD SHOPPING CENTRE SIZES AND SALES
Number of Centers in Sample: 21 Lower Upper Lower Upper Number Average Median Decile Decile Median Decile Decile Reporting
Center Size Square Feet Total floor space (GLA and all other floor area) 61,452 57,021 36,129 86,775 21
Center Sales Dollars per Square Foot of GLA All tenants $501.60 $504.89 5
Operating Results Dollars per Square Foot of GLA Percent of Total Receipts $ $ $ $ % % % Total Operating Receipts 18.68 17.86 11.26 26.93 100.00 100.00 100.00 21 Total rent 12.76 11.33 7.97 18.44 69.60 54.05 77.09 21 Total common area charges 4.06 3.43 1.41 8.33 18.19 10.75 37.23 21 Total other charges 2.79 2.90 1.08 4.06 15.46 8.16 21.71 1 Total miscellaneous income 0.12 0.09 0.01 0.29 0.44 0.05 1.52 14 Total Operating Expenses 6.94 6.90 3.30 10.24 39.93 30.21 46.96 21 Total maintenance and housekeeping 1.98 2.13 0.86 2.80 9.66 6.60 17.33 20 Total advertising and promotion 0.09 0.06 0.21 5 Total real estate taxes 3.41 3.55 1.98 5.35 17.41 15.05 27.33 21 Total insurance 0.13 0.13 0.08 0.24 0.61 0.40 1.52 21 Total general and administrative 1.29 1.10 0.43 2.57 6.72 2.86 14.97 20
Net Operating Balance 11.84 11.11 6.60 17.36 60.07 53.04 69.79 21
Note: GLA for operating results is adjusted as described in Chapter 2.
Note: Because data are means, medians, and deciles, detailed amounts do not add to totals. No median figures are shown if fewer than five values were reported for any income or expense category, and no lower and upper decile amounts are shown if fewer than ten values were reported.
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ANCHOR TENANTS IN WESTERN CANADA
ANCHOR LIST TYPICAL SQ.FT. BEST BUY 45,000 BUY LOW 26,000 CANADIAN TIRE 80,000 CHAPTERS 30,000 CINEPLEX 110,000 COSTCO 140,000 CRATE AND BARREL 25,000 EXTRA FOODS 38,000 FIELDS 16,000 FUTURE SHOP 30,000 H & M 15,000 HMV 8,000 HOME DEPOT 100,000 HOME HARDWARE 8,000 HOME SENSE 28,000 IGA 35,000 IKEA 140,000 J. CREW 10,000 JYSK 20,000 LINEN AND THINGS 30,000 LONDON DRUGS 30,000 MIKASA 30,000 OFFICE DEPOT 30,000 OLD NAVY 16,000 PETCETERA 20,000 PETSMART 20,000 PIER ONE IMPORTS 15,000 R.C. SUPERSTORE 120,000 RONA 80,000 RESTORATION HARDWARE 20,000 SAFEWAY 40,000 PRIOCE SMART / SAVE ON FOODS 38,000 SEARS 120,000 SEARS HOME CENTRE 30,000 SHOPPERS DRUG 16,000 SPORT CHEK 25,000 SPORTS MART 10,000 STAPLES OFFICE 22,000 THE BAY 120,000 THE BRICK 40,000 THRIFTY FOODS 35,000 TOYS R US 30,000 URBAN BARN 10,000 URBAN OUTFITTERS 8,000 WAL-MART 130,000 WILLIAMS SONOMA- POTTERY BARN 16,000 WINNERS FASHION 30,000 ZARA 15,000 ZELLERS 80,000
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1 4 . 0 AP P E N D I X 7 – OFFICE MARKET
14.1 VACANCY RATES AND ABSORPTION
The Metro Vancouver office market continues to be one of the most stable markets in Canada. The vacancy rate remained unchanged for mid 2011 at 7.5% and rental rates did not experience any significant fluctuations. At the height of the recession, there were over 800,000 square feet of vacant sublease space; most recently there are 287,000 square feet. The majority of submarkets, including Downtown, experienced low negative absorption this quarter. The only exceptions were Burnaby and Richmond, which accrued positive net absorption of 152,000 square feet between them. Metro Vancouver’s overall net absorption totaled positive 34,000 square feet. (Source: Colliers)
METRO VANCOUVER OFFICE NEW SUPPLY, ABSORPTION, AND VACANCY RATE TRENDS
Source: Colliers International
For Metro Vancouver, the most active office leasing sectors were infrastructure-related companies, government authorities, and natural resource and life-sciences businesses. Lease activity in the Suburban market continues to be fairly steady, although vacancy remains quite high in most of the submarkets. The overall Suburban vacancy rate decreased slightly from 10.9% Q1 2011 to 10.7% Q2 2011, with net absorption totaling positive 48,500 square feet. Burnaby accumulated the largest amount of net absorption with 125,800 square feet. (Source: Colliers)
In 2011 Q2 the Suburbs experienced an influx of activity from downtown Vancouver tenants. The nearly unaffordable rates for quality space and limited relocation options available have finally taken their toll on companies residing in downtown Vancouver. Burnaby received the majority of the interest primarily due to its accessibility to public transit. In addition, many Downtown tenants are drawn to the Class AAA space that Metrotowers I and II have to offer: high-quality, accessible space at more affordable rates. On the investment side, tenant demand for strata space is expected to intensify as new strata developments get underway. (Source: Colliers)
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14.2 RENTS
Asking rents in the Vancouver area have been increasing since 2005, reaching an average of $24 per square foot (psf) in 2008-2009. With the slowdown in the economy and leasing activity, rates will not likely increase and inducements will likely become more important in securing tenants.
Overall rental rates have stayed constant in the last few quarters, at approximately $20-22 per sq ft on average. The spread between vacancy rates in the CBD vs. the Non-CBD has expanded. This is likely due to a limited supply of available quality space in the CBD and the increasing trend of tenants moving to more affordable space outside the downtown core. (Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
OVERALL AVAILABLE SPACE VS. RENTAL RATES
CBD-Rent Non-CBD-Rent CBD-Vacancy Non-CBD-Vacancy $40 15% $30 10%
psf/yr $20 5% $10 $0 0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
14.3 NORTH SHORE OFFICE MARKET
The North Shore office market is comprised of the District of North Vancouver, City of North Vancouver, and the District of West Vancouver. This totals 1.5 million sq ft of office space in the North Shore.
This small office market for the North Shore experienced a significant increase in vacancy rates between 2008 to 2011, increasing from the 2-3% range in early 2008 to 6.6% in the second quarter of 2009, to 8.2% in mid 2011. (Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
The current trend in the North Shore office market is the increase in demand from tenants seeking to purchase strata or stand-alone buildings. Demand to purchase or lease flex office/warehouse space to accommodate smaller private businesses is also on the rise.
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MAJOR OFFICE BUILDINGS IN THE DISTRICT OF NORTH VANCOUVER
Address Property Name Building Class City Building SF 2155 Dollarton Highway Northwoods Business Park North Vancouver 75,000 1277 Lynn Valley Road Lynn Valley Library & Town Centre North Vancouver 50,000 1200 Lynn Valley Road Valley Professional Centre B North Vancouver 38,611 111 Forester Street North Shore Corporate Centre A North Vancouver 30,000 1861 Welch Street Welch Street Business Centre C North Vancouver 25,201 2030 Marine Drive 2030 Marine B North Vancouver 22,000 1801 Welch Street Welch Street Business Centre C North Vancouver 20,140 1460 Main Street Mountain View Village A North Vancouver 18,400 1500 Marine Drive 1500 Marine Business Center B North Vancouver 10,916 1000 14th Street West C North Vancouver 8,430 1618 Pemberton Avenue North Vancouver 7,134 445 Mountain Highway C North Vancouver 6,786 2255 Dollarton Highway Northwoods Business Park North Vancouver 5,000 1448 Crown Street 1448 Crown C North Vancouver 4,500 1611 Welch Street A North Vancouver 2,367 1055 14th Avenue West C North Vancouver 2,340 1176 Welch Street 1176 Welch North Vancouver 2,000 1182 Welch Street 1182 Welch North Vancouver 2,000 1348 Marine Drive North Vancouver 1,763 1075 Marine Drive 1075 Marine North Vancouver 1,011 1355 Pemberton Avenue North Vancouver 800 1433 Rupert Street North Vancouver 411 Total 334,810
NORTH VANCOUVER OFFICE INVENTORY 40,000 SQ FT AND OVER
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14.4 METRO VANCOUVER OFFICE SPACE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
Metro Vancouver to the immediate south of the subject site contains the majority of office space in the province. In terms of regional planning, the Metro Vancouver Regional Growth Strategy includes five main strategies, one of which is ‘build complete communities’. This strategy supports complete communities where jobs are located closer to where people live and are accessible by transit through a focus on regional and municipal town centres.
A multi-centric region has been successful for retail and residential which both like to group together, but it has been less successful for office. Municipalities in Metro Vancouver have waited for Regional Town Centre office development, which does not come, and do not properly plan for their main source of new employment - business parks. Since their inception the regional town centres have failed to attract a significant share of market oriented office development.
Downtown Vancouver and Business Parks dominate new office development across Metro Vancouver. The financial parameters for office development strongly favour low-rise, low cost, and flexible business park office space over high-rise, high cost, inflexible, multi-tenant concrete tower office space. However increasingly these business parks are being located close to transit facilities.
Compared to other regions, Metro Vancouver is dominated by industrial employment and has relatively few employees in office space. Seattle for example, has 50% more office space per capita. The Metro Vancouver region thus lacks critical large-scale office anchor tenants and strong demand.
Office Location Factors Some of the factors which impact office development and location are: Businesses do not need town centre density or proximity in order to conduct their businesses. Town centre office lands are expensive to develop or rent as they have other uses - residential. Residential competes with office for sites in town centres and is three times more valuable. Office in town centres needs strong demand, large anchors, and high rents. Office towers add large volumes of space all at once and entail high risk. There are large sites for master planning and phasing. Office employees do not yet use transit enough. Town centres do not have ample free parking. Town centres tend to have more traffic congestion. Town centres cannot do build to suit / single tenant / user-owner. Town centres have higher property taxes. Regional businesses do not need to be close to customers or suppliers.
Town Centres’ Strengths Office tenants and developers can see several positive characteristics of town centres: Transit services. Residential nearby. Convenient services and retail.
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A town centre location tends to be more suitable for local area serving businesses such as accountants and lawyers. The town centres have service areas, which are very similar to the retail trade areas of the regional shopping centres, which anchor the commercial district. The longer-term potential to offer a more attractive and unique urban environment with an ambiance that employees will enjoy and request of the office employer. This already exists in the central area, where locational factors can outweigh the additional costs for some tenants. Eventually design guidelines and ongoing redevelopment may make the town centres appear more like a downtown. In general, town centres attract a selection of businesses and business parks attract a different, more regional type of business. They are complementary and different.
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1 5 . 0 AP P E N D I X 8 – INDUSTRIAL M ARKET
15.1 VACANCY RATES AND ABSORPTION
The Metro Vancouver industrial vacancy rates were approximately 4.5% for 2010, up from approximately 4.0% in 2009. For mid 2011, the rate increased to 5.0%. The second quarter of 2011 was characterized by negative absorption levels, increased vacancy rates, and over 472,000 square feet (sf) of new industrial supply, demonstrating a slight setback from the first quarter of 2011. While new supply was up in the second quarter, absorption levels returned to negative territory, with approximately 239,000 sf given back to the market, compared to almost 523,000 sf of positive absorption recorded in the first quarter of 2011. (Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
The Metro Vancouver industrial market remained strong during the second quarter of 2011. Although the level of absorption was not as high as in the first quarter, the completion of a number of build to suit projects resulted in positive absorption of 227,671 square feet. Despite the positive absorption, the vacancy rate rose slightly to 4.1% up from 4.0% in the previous quarter as a significant amount of sublease space came back to the market. The volume of sale transactions continues to compress, due to a supply constrain, while the demand for quality investment product continues to strengthen. As developers pursue ways to justify developing speculative product, there remains a disconnect between the very high land prices and discounted lease rates. (Source: Colliers)
The below chart shows the new supply and net absorption of industrial land in the Metro Vancouver region between 2005 and 2011, along with vacant rates. Absorption rates significantly declined in 2010 and 2011 from levels seen in 2006-2009, and vacancy rates have been elevated since 2009. (Note the vacancy rate numbers reported from Colliers are lower).
METRO VANCOUVER ABSO RPTION, NEW SUPPLY, AND VACANCY RATE TRENDS
Source: Colliers International
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15.2 RENTS
The increase in new supply has put upward pressure on overall vacancy, while once again lease rates remained stable, averaging $6.80-$9.80 per square foot since the end of 2009. Similarly, land values have not changed since 2010, averaging between $1.1 and $1.6 million per acre. Rental rates are not expected to climb again until some of the currently available space is taken up. (Source: Cushman & Wakefield)
METRO VANCOUVER OVERALL RENT VS. VACANCY
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.
15.3 NORTH SHORE INDUSTRIAL MARKET
The 5.4 million sq ft North Shore industrial market experienced a modest construction boom since the beginning of 2007 when 161,000 sq ft of space was added to inventory. Another 164,000 sq ft was added in 2008. North Vancouver (District and City combined) attracted a very small share of the new industrial floor area in Metro Vancouver over the 2000 – 2009 period, and is one of the smaller markets, ahead of only New Westminster, Maple Ridge / Pitt Meadows, and Port Moody.
Vacancy rates were at 1.6% in mid 2010 and increased to 3.3% by mid 2011, considerably lower than the regional average. With lease rates of $10.00 to $15.00 per sq ft, the highest in Metro Vancouver, it is likely that the reason for somewhat restrained building in the North Shore market has more to do with land prices ranging from $2,000,000 to $3,000,000 per acre.
As one of the most desirable industrial markets in Metro Vancouver, the anticipate vacancy rate in the North Vancouver is expected to remain relatively low in comparison to other suburban areas.
15.4 METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL LAND INVENTORY
The Metro Vancouver industrial market is characterized by controlled development, limited supply, and low vacancy. Most of the vacant industrial land in the region is located in Surrey, followed by Richmond and Langley. The closest significant established industrial lands to the subject site are in Squamish and North Vancouver.
As of 2010, the Metro Vancouver region had an estimated 6,600 acres of vacant industrial land, and 21,600 acres of developed industrial lands. The region added an average of 4.0 million sq ft of industrial space per year. Assuming an average site coverage of 0.35 this requires approximately 250 acres of
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Most of the new development is occupied by large scale goods handling and transportation related businesses. In the past, the inner municipalities received the vast majority of industrial and other forms of development. Only once the vacant land supply began to decrease and prices rise did consistent major new development commence in the more distant suburbs. This is shown in the past absorption rates where suburban markets only captured a moderate share of new development.
In the future, due to the lack of vacant lands in the inner suburbs, the growth rate and absorption of industrial lands in other areas is expected to increase dramatically. Future industrial and business parks will have fewer alternatives and the past absorption rate could easily double.
The North Shore Sector, which includes the District of North Vancouver, City of North Vancouver, and District of West Vancouver, had an estimated 950 acres of developed industrial land and 60 acres of vacant industrial land in 2010 (approximately 6% of the North Shore industrial land supply is vacant). This total industrial supply of approximately 1,000 acres represented 3.6% of the regional share; this is below its share of the regional population.
METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL LANDS 2010
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DISTRIBUTION OF INDUSTRIAL LANDS, 2010
MAP OF INDUSTRIAL AREAS AND TRANSPORTATION NETWORK
15.5 METRO VANCOUVER INDUSTRIAL SPACE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
Industrial space within Metro Vancouver is relatively inexpensive compared to cities in the US, but not so compared to the rest of Canada. The region is strongly positioned to attract industrial based employment growth within a competitive global market and there is some potential to expand its role to become a North American, rather than just Canadian, gateway for Pacific trade. It is important that there be an adequate supply of land at a reasonable cost as this helps to keep the area competitive vis-à-vis other port cities and urban centres.
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The industrial real estate market has enjoyed an extremely low vacancy rate for many years and it is expected to remain low for the long-term, notwithstanding the current temporary increase. The amount of land available for existing and future industrial uses remains relatively limited. This land use, more than any other, must be allocated across sub-markets in such a way as to reflect the inventory of vacant industrial lands.
The single most important issue related to the location of industrial space is vacant land supply. As such past allocation is relatively straightforward and future allocation becomes a function of land supply. Industrial development was relatively spread out across the local markets and, in the aggregate, appears not to be location sensitive. In the future, as the urban areas become built out, this will change as new growth is funnelled into the sub-markets which can physically still accommodate expansion. In general this means the larger communities on the eastern part of the region.
Industrial space distribution within the Metro Vancouver between 2001 and 2021 is expected to continue to shift eastwards, as those areas with undeveloped land take an ever larger share of new development. Between 2011 and 2021, the total industrial space is projected to increase by some 24% or 44 million square feet. The largest share of new space demand is expected to be accommodated in Surrey and Langley. It is thus expected that Surrey will account for almost one in every four industrial jobs in Metro Vancouver by the year 2021.
It is clear that the industrial real estate market is spread across Metro Vancouver and focussed within industrially zoned or designated districts. Due to the overwhelming dominance of Surrey’s vacant land base, that municipality is expected to capture a very large share of future industrial development. This growth market is followed by the other submarkets on the south side of the Fraser River, such as Langley. The older more mature municipalities, such as Vancouver, North Vancouver, and Burnaby, have declining or static industrial land inventories. Markets such as Delta and Richmond have some vacant industrial land available, however, they may reach capacity before 2021.
The following figure indicates the expected growth and change to the industrial space inventories for Metro Vancouver. A comparison between past and projected rates of growth indicates that, to a large degree, industrial space will increase much as it has in the past, although the share of employment which is industrial will gradually decline.
INDUSTRIAL FLOOR SPACE FORECAST (SQ FT), METRO VANCOUVER, 2001-2021
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1 6 . 0 AP P E N D I X 9 – DEVELOPMENT PRINCIPL ES
By incorporating a number of features early into the design and development of the project, a more complete community can be created. These features can include a mixture of land uses and densities, a variety of transportation options, high quality urban design, and energy efficient buildings. The provision of these features will encourage living and working in closer proximity, more walking and reduced driving, higher qualities of life for residents and workers, higher land values, and ultimately a better community.
Master Planned Community The development of this large and unique site as a master planned community should incorporate a variety of land uses and designs and provide for a high quality end product.
Canada has very few large master planned communities, but there are a number in the United States which can be explored to provide ideas for the new 'The Urban Village at Britannia Beach' community. These projects are very large in the hundreds or thousands of acres, have a full collection of complementary land uses, including residential and employment as well as entertainment, recreational and public areas, and are often situated on unique sites such as waterfronts. These projects can also have particular themes and be built with a shared style to give a sense of uniformity and quality.
Below is a list of some of these projects build in the United States over the past few decades:
Anthem, Arizona Carolina Forest, South Carolina Celebration, Florida Eagle Mountain, Utah Greatwood, Sugar Land, Texas Laguna West, California New Territory, Sugar Land, Texas Phillips Ranch, California Port Liberte, New Jersey Rancho Santa Margarita, California Seaside, Florida Southern Village, North Carolina Summerlin, Nevada Suncadia, Washington Viera, Florida Westchase, Florida Weston, Florida
These projects should not be artificially replicated on the subject site, but considerable planning and design attention to ensure that the project best reflects the site context and other important features.
Smart Growth Smart growth is a collection of land use and development principles that aim to enhance the quality of life, preserve the natural environment, and ultimately save money. Smart growth principles ensure that growth is fiscally, environmentally and socially responsible and recognizes the connections between complete development and quality of life.
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Smart Growth Principles: 1. Mix land uses. Each neighbourhood has a mixture of homes, retail, business, and recreational opportunities. 2. Build well-designed compact neighbourhoods. Residents can choose to live, work, shop and play in close proximity. People can easily access daily activities, transit is viable, and local businesses are supported. 3. Provide a variety of transportation choices. Neighbourhoods are attractive and have safe infrastructure for walking, cycling and transit, in addition to driving. 4. Create diverse housing opportunities. People in different family types, life stages and income levels can afford a home in the neighbourhood of their choice. 5. Encourage growth in existing communities. Investments in infrastructure (such as roads and schools) are used efficiently, and developments do not take up new land. 6. Preserve open spaces, natural beauty, and environmentally sensitive areas. Development respects natural landscape features and has higher aesthetic, environmental, and financial value. 7. Protect and enhance agricultural lands. A secure and productive agricultural land base, provides food security, employment, and habitat, and is maintained as an urban containment boundary. 8. Utilize smarter, and cheaper infrastructure and green buildings. Green buildings and other systems can save both money and the environment in the long run. 9. Foster a unique neighbourhood identity. Each community is unique, vibrant, diverse, and inclusive. 10. Nurture engaged citizens. Places belong to those who live, work, and play there. Engaged citizens participate in community life and decision-making.
Source: Smart Growth BC www.smartgrowth.bc.ca
Transit Oriented Development Transit Oriented Development (or Design) (TOD), it is the creation of compact, walkable communities centered around high quality transit systems. This makes it possible to live and work without dependence on a car for mobility.
A transit-oriented development is a mixed-use residential or commercial area designed to maximize access to public transport, and often incorporates features to encourage transit ridership. A TOD neighbourhood typically has a center with a transit station or stop (train station, metro station, tram stop, or bus stop), surrounded by relatively high-density development with progressively lower-density development spreading outwards from the center. TODs generally are located within a radius of one- quarter to one-half mile (400 to 800 m) from a transit stop, as this is considered to be an appropriate scale for pedestrians.
Components of Transit Oriented Development: Walkable design with pedestrian as the highest priority Transit station as prominent feature of town center A regional node containing a mixture of uses in close proximity including office, residential, retail, and civic uses High density, high-quality development within 10-minute walk circle surrounding transit station Collector support transit systems including trolleys, streetcars, light rail, and buses, etc Designed to include the easy use of bicycles, scooters, and rollerblades as daily support transportation systems Reduced and managed parking inside 10-minute walk circle around town center / transit station
Benefits of Transit Oriented Development: Higher quality of life Better places to live, work, and play
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Greater mobility with ease of moving around Increased transit ridership Reduced traffic congestion and driving Reduced car accidents and injuries Reduced household spending on transportation, resulting in more affordable housing Healthier lifestyle with more walking, and less stress Higher, more stable property values Increased foot traffic and customers for area businesses Greatly reduced dependence on foreign oil Greatly reduced pollution and environmental destruction Reduced incentive to sprawl, increased incentive for compact development Less expensive than building roads and sprawl Enhanced ability to maintain economic competitiveness
Source: www.transitorienteddevelopment.org
Urban Design and New Urbanism Urban design involves the arrangement and design of buildings, public spaces, transport systems, services, and amenities; it blends architecture, landscape architecture, and city planning together to make urban areas functional and attractive. Urban design is about making connections between people and places, movement and urban form, nature and the built fabric.
Urban design involves place-making - the creation of a setting that imparts a sense of place to an area. This process is achieved by establishing identifiable neighbourhoods, unique architecture, aesthetically pleasing public places and vistas, identifiable landmarks and focal points, and a human element established by compatible scales of development and ongoing public stewardship. Other key elements of place-making include: lively commercial centers, mixed-use development with ground-floor retail uses; human-scale and context-sensitive design; safe and attractive public areas; image-making; and decorative elements in the public realm.
Urban Design 10 Key Principles: 1. Context Determines Site Forms 2. Save and Celebrate the Place 3. Recognize the Natural Features as Critical Form-Makers 4. Fit the Design to the Scale and Location 5. Movement Systems Should Move People Not Cars 6. Multiple, Flex, and Mixed Uses are Keystones to Sustainability 7. Plan for Diversity 8. Incorporate Public Realms as a Central Component 9. Develop a Company and Save Urban Form 10. Integrate Community-Building as Part of Process
Source: Dynamic Urban Design, Michael von Hausen
New Urbanism is an urban design movement which promotes walkable neighbourhoods that contain a range of housing and job types. New Urbanism is strongly influenced by urban design standards prominent before the rise of the automobile and encompasses principles such as traditional neighbourhood design and transit-oriented development. New Urbanism support regional planning for open space, context-appropriate architecture and planning, and the balanced development of jobs and housing. These strategies can reduce traffic congestion, increase the supply of affordable housing, and reduce urban sprawl.
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New Urbanism Elements: 1. Walkability - pedestrian friendly 2. Connectivity - interconnected street grid 3. Mixed-Use & Diversity - different land uses and people 4. Mixed Housing - range of types, sizes and prices 5. Quality Architecture & Urban Design - beauty, aesthetics, human comfort, and creating a sense of place 6. Traditional Neighbourhood Structure - highest densities at town center / progressively less dense towards the edge 7. Increased Density - efficient use of services and resources 8. Smart Transportation - alternatives to automobile 9. Sustainability - energy efficiency 10. Quality of Life - high quality of life well worth living
New Urbanism Features: The neighbourhood has a discernible center - often a square or memorable street corner. Most of the dwellings are within a five-minute walk of the center - roughly 600 metres. There are a variety of dwelling types - usually houses, rowhouses, apartments - so that younger / older people, singles / families, poor / wealthy may find places to live. At the edge of the neighbourhood, there are shops and offices of sufficiently varied types to supply the weekly needs of a household. A small ancillary building or garage apartment is permitted within the backyard of each house. It may be used as a rental unit or place to work. An elementary school is close enough so that most children can walk from their home. There are small playgrounds accessible to every dwelling - not more than 150 metres. Streets within the neighbourhood form a connected network, which disperses traffic by providing a variety of pedestrian and vehicular routes to any destination. The streets are relatively narrow and shaded by rows of trees. This slows traffic, creating an environment suitable for pedestrians and bicycles. Buildings in the neighbourhood center are placed close to the street, creating a well-defined outdoor room. Parking lots and garage doors rarely front the street. Parking is relegated to the rear of buildings, usually accessed by alleys. Certain prominent sites at the termination of street vistas or in the neighbourhood center are reserved for civic buildings. The neighbourhood is organized to be self-governing.
Source: New Urbanism www.newurbanism.org
Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) - Neighbourhood Development LEED is an internationally recognized green building certification system, providing verification that a building or community was designed and built using strategies aimed at improving environmental performance. LEED for Neighbourhood Development (LEED-ND) extends the benefits of LEED beyond the building footprint into the neighbourhood it serves.
LEED for Neighbourhood Development integrates the principles of smart growth, New Urbanism and green building into a rating system for neighbourhood design. Unlike other LEED rating systems which focus primarily on green building practices, LEED for Neighbourhood Development places emphasis on the site selection, design, and construction elements that bring buildings and infrastructure together into a neighbourhood and relate the neighbourhood to its landscape as well as its local and regional context. LEED projects, often mixed-use, may constitute whole neighbourhoods, portions of neighbourhoods, or multiple neighbourhoods.
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LEED for Neighbourhood Development emphasizes the creation of compact, walkable, vibrant, mixed- use neighbourhoods with good connections to nearby communities. In addition to neighbourhood morphology, pedestrian scale, and mix of uses, the LEED rating system also emphasizes the location of the neighbourhood and the performance of the infrastructure and buildings within it.
By placing residences and jobs near each other, thoughtful neighbourhood planning and mixed-use development with good public transit, residents and workers can safely travel by foot, bicycle, or transit to jobs, amenities, and services. This limits automobile trips and the associated greenhouse gas emissions. Likewise, green buildings can reduce energy and water use, and green infrastructure, such as landscaping and best practices to reduce stormwater runoff, can protect natural resources. Together, well-located and well-designed green neighbourhood developments play an integral role in reducing energy use and improving quality of life.
Source: US Green Building Council www.usgbc.org
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1 7 . 0 APPENDIX 10 – IMPACT MODEL DESCRIP TION
Economic Impact Evaluation Approach, Terminology and Model The purpose of the economic impact assessment is as follows: to develop a simple economic model which effectively assesses the development and operational impacts of generic development of the subject lands; and to use the model and preliminary multiplier estimates to prepare an overview economic impact assessment which estimates direct and secondary economic effects; Standard industry density factors have been used to approximate the scale of development under the different land use development scenario. Industry databases have been accessed to determine realistic employment levels for the proposed land uses on the subject site. The analysis uses of a variety of assumptions, industry standards, development standards and multiplier estimates. While extensive original research was not carried out, the factors and parameters used provide a realistic and practical estimate of the scope of impact associated with the potential development.
Economic Impact Terminology Standard economic impact terminology is used throughout this section and the most noteworthy terms are described below: “impact analysis” estimates the impact of dollars from outside the region (i.e. “new dollars”) on the region’s economy; “direct effects” are the changes in economic activity during the first round of spending and include spending associated with both the development/construction phase as well as the operational phase over time; “secondary effects” are the changes in economic activity from subsequent rounds of re-spending in the regional economy and are comprised of “indirect effects” and “induced effects”; “indirect effects” are the changes in sales, income or employment within the region in backward- linked industries supplying goods and services for infrastructure construction (e.g. land and fixed link development) and to the new businesses which are developed (i.e. the industrial and commercial companies which will locate on the site); “induced effects” are the increased sales within the region from household spending of the income earned by employees in the new businesses which are developed; “total effects” are the sum of direct, indirect and induced effects; and “multipliers” capture the size of the secondary effects in a given region, generally as a ratio of the total change in economic activity in the region relative to the direct change. Multipliers may be expressed as ratios of sales, income or employment or as ratios of total income or employment changes relative to direct sales. They express the degree of interdependency between sectors in a region’s economy and, therefore, vary considerably across regions and sectors.
Overview of the Model A simplistic model has been developed using a spreadsheet format to identify and describe the key economic factors of interest for the development. The following is an overview of a theoretical model to estimate both the development (i.e. construction, equipment acquisition, etc.) and operational
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT considerations of the project (long term stream of economic activity associated with the project upon completion). It considers both the direct and secondary (indirect and induced) impact of the project, which equal the total effect. This enables relative benefits to be expressed in terms of current dollars through the use of net present value analysis.
The model provides the means for a practical assessment of regional direct and secondary impacts for the following key business expenditure categories: Development capital investment to create the project; Operational expenditures on wages and salaries for long term business employees; Operational expenditures on goods and services by companies for their ongoing business operations; and, Municipal property taxes and charges. The approach used for this analysis includes several steps for each of the economic benefit generating categories listed above. These are as follows: An estimate of total expenditures under each category (i.e. Either development or operational and their timing); An estimate of extra-regional leakage (i.e. That portion of direct spending which “leaks” out of the regional economy to employees and companies located outside the wider region); A calculation of the direct regional economic impact (i.e. Total expenditures less leakage); An estimate of the multiplier for each category which may be applicable (pending further research) to the region to account for secondary economic impacts; A calculation of the total regional economic impact under each category; and A calculation of the ‘net present value’, in current dollars, of the total impacts and the secondary impacts on the regional economy from the development and operation. Many of the estimates used are approximate, generic and/or based on available standards and research given the limited scope of the work. The total direct and secondary impacts will require more detailed analysis as the development application and evaluation processes take place.
The anticipated economic impact should be compared against the existing economic activity on the site. The proposed change in use would drastically increase the amount and value of economic and employment activity associated with the site and benefits to the region.
New Business Operations Impact Summary As new businesses, their ongoing business operations will generate economic benefits for the region in three primary areas as follows: employment creation and the resulting expenditures on wages and salaries; ongoing purchases of goods and services for corporate operations; and the payment of taxes and other charges during the development of the subject lands and ongoing company operations. Preliminary estimates of the magnitude of these expenditures have been made for purposes of this overview economic analysis. As with all other economic impact estimates, more detailed analyses will be required to refine these estimates as the project moves forward.
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The business expenditures have been estimated based on a number of key factors in the financial model and several additional assumptions which are summarized below: employment generation is based on the calculations in the financial model (in the previous section) which, in turn, are based on the building absorption projections and standard employment ratios per square foot for industrial, commercial, office space; wage and salary expenditures are based on the employment projections and an average remuneration per employee; a reasonable generic profile was assumed for a typical industrial company for purposes of estimating, consistently, key expenditure items which included the following ratios on the expense portion of its income statement: Wages and Salaries: 30%
Goods & Services: 45%
Miscellaneous: 25% Pre-Tax Cash Flow (EBITDA): 100%
conservatively, goods and services expenditures were estimated to total one and a half times estimated wage and salary expenditures; and municipal taxes and charges include “property taxes on vacant land”, “development cost charges” (“DCC’s”), “property taxes on buildings” and “other taxes on buildings” as described in the financial model. To determine “direct economic impacts” in the region which are associated with these expenditures, have assumed the following factors for leakage directly out of the region to employees or suppliers located elsewhere in BC, Canada and/or the United States:
wage and salary expenditure leakage: 10% goods and services expenditure leakage: 35% municipal tax and DCC expenditure leakage: 0% The 35% leakage for goods and services expenditures may be somewhat high but is included to be conservative. Some companies will source up to 90% of their goods and services outside the region (e.g. manufacturers who bring in raw materials or big box retailers who source virtually all goods offshore) while others may spend up to 70% or 80% of this expense item regionally.
Once this estimated ‘leakage’ is taken into account, the direct economic impacts on the region arising from these expenditure categories of operation are estimated to have a net present value (NPV). These direct economic impacts are very substantial and, accordingly, they warrant a more detailed evaluation than the scope of this study permitted. It can be stated with confidence that direct impacts within the orders of magnitude estimated are realistic given the scope of the development proposed.
Estimate of Secondary Economic Impacts Secondary economic impacts will occur in the region as a result of the subject site development. A detailed evaluation of appropriate multipliers is required to provide an accurate estimate of the magnitude of these induced and indirect economic benefits (which comprise the secondary impacts).
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Several very preliminary economic multipliers have been incorporated into the economic model. These are as follows:
Development expense multiplier for land and business development impacts: 1.25 Development expense multiplier for infrastructure construction impacts: 1.25 Multiplier for wage and salary expenditure impacts: 1.35 Multiplier for goods and services expenditure impacts: 1.25 Multiplier for municipal taxation / charges impacts: 1.35 These multipliers are estimated to derive total impacts (i.e. direct + secondary impacts) from direct impacts. Effectively, therefore, they indicate that secondary impacts account for 25% to 35% of direct impacts. For these calculations, the multipliers used are considered to be conservative, and an average multiplier of 1.30 has been used.
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1 8 . 0 AP P E N D I X 1 1 – ASSUMPTIONS & LIMITI N G CONDITIONS
This market, economic, land use or development report / study has been prepared at the request of the client for the purpose of providing an estimate of economic feasibility or impact, development strategy or range of possible market values. It is not reasonable for any person other than the person or those to whom this report is addressed to rely upon this without first obtaining written authorization from the client and the author of this report. This report has been prepared on the assumption that no other person will rely on it for any other purpose and all liability to all such persons is denied.
This report has been prepared at the request of the client, and for the exclusive (and confidential) use of the recipient as named herein and for the specific purpose and function as stated herein. The client has provided much of the site information and has represented that such material, such as ownership, rents, size, etc. is reliable. All copyright is reserved to the author and this report is considered confidential by the author and the client. Possession of this report, or a copy thereof, does not carry with it the right to reproduction or publication in any manner, in whole or in part, nor may it be disclosed, quoted from or referred to in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent and approval of the author as to the purpose, form and content of any such disclosure, quotation or reference.
Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, neither all nor any part of the contents of this report shall be disseminated or otherwise conveyed to the public in any manner whatsoever or through any media whatsoever or disclosed, quoted from or referred to in any report, financial statement, prospectus, or offering memorandum of the client, or in any documents filed with any governmental agency without the prior written consent and approval of the author as to the purpose, form and content of such dissemination, disclosure, quotation or reference.
If an estimate of economic, market or financial value of the real property / subject site which is assessed in this report is provided then it pertains to the approximate and general range of possible values of the freehold or fee simple, or leasehold or leased fee estate in the real property, based on vacant possession or subject to terms and conditions of the existing tenancy as described in this report. The property rights exclude mineral rights, if any.
An estimate of economic, market or financial value, if any, contained in this report is founded upon a thorough and diligent examination and analysis of information gathered and obtained from numerous sources. Certain information has been accepted at face value, especially if there was no reason to doubt its accuracy. Other empirical data required interpretive analysis pursuant to the objective of this report. Certain inquiries were outside the scope of this mandate. In addition, any economic or financial estimates in this report are approximations only and may vary from final and actual market values. For these reasons, the analyses, opinions, and conclusions contained in this report are subject to the following contingent and limiting conditions.
The property has been assessed on the basis that title to the real property is good and marketable.
The author of this report cannot accept responsibility for legal matters, questions of survey, opinions of title, hidden or unapparent conditions of the property, toxic wastes or contaminated materials, soil or sub- soil conditions, environmental, engineering or other technical matters which might render this property more or less valuable than as stated herein. If it came to our attention as the result of our investigation
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT and analysis that certain problems may exist, a cautionary note has been entered in the body of the report.
The legal description of the property and the area of the site was obtained from sources which are deemed to be reliable. Further, the plans and sketches contained in this report are included solely to aid the recipient in visualizing the location of the property, the configuration, and boundaries of the site and the relative position of the improvements on the said lands.
The property, if any, has been described on the basis that the real property is free and clear of all value influencing encumbrances, encroachments, restrictions or covenants except as any be noted in this report and that there are no pledges, charges, lien or social assessments outstanding against the property other than as stated and described herein.
The property if any, has been described on the basis that there are no outstanding liabilities except as expressly noted herein, pursuant to any agreement with a municipal or other government authority, pursuant to any contract or agreement pertaining to the ownership and operation of the real estate or pursuant to any lease or agreement to lease, which may affect the stated value or saleability of the subject property or any portion thereof.
The interpretation of any leases and other contractual agreements, pertaining to the operation and ownership of the property, as expressed herein, is solely the opinion of the author, and should not be construed as a legal interpretation. Further, any summaries of these contractual agreements, which may appear in the Addenda, are presented for the sole purpose of giving the reader an overview of the salient facts thereof.
The property, if any, has been described on the basis that the real property complies in all material respects with any restrictive covenants affecting the site and has been built and is occupied and being operated, in all material respects, in full compliance with all requirements of law, including all zoning, land use classification, building, planning, fire and health by-laws, rules, regulations, orders and codes of all federal, provincial, regional and municipal governmental authorities having jurisdiction with respect thereto. (It is recognized there may be work orders or other notices of violation of law outstanding with respect to the real estate and that there may be certain requirements of law preventing occupancy of the real estate as described in this report. However, such possible circumstances have not been accounted for in the reporting process.)
Investigations have been undertaken in respect of matters that regulate the use of land. However, no inquiries have been placed with the fire department, the building inspector, the health department, or any other government regulatory agency, unless such investigations are expressly represented to have been made in this report. The subject property must comply with such regulations and, if it does not comply, its non-compliance may affect the market value of this property. To be certain of such compliance, further investigations may be necessary.
The property, if any, has been assessed and possibly valued in a general analysis on the basis that all rents referred to in this report are being paid in full and when due and payable under the terms and conditions of the attendant leases, agreements to lease or other contractual agreements. Further, it is assumed that all rents referred to in this report represent the rental arrangements stipulated in the leases, agreements to lease or other contractual agreements pertaining to the tenants' occupancy, to the extent that such rents have not been prepaid, abated, or inflated to reflect extraordinary circumstances, and are fully enforceable notwithstanding that such documentation may not be fully executed by the parties
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SOUTH BRITANNIA, HOWE SOUND MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY – MARKET DEMAND / SUPPLY AND FINANCIAL / ECONOMIC IMPACT thereto as at the date of this reporting, unless such conditions have been identified and noted in this report.
The data and statistical information contained herein were gathered from reliable sources and are believed to be correct. However, these data are not guaranteed for accuracy, even though every attempt has been made to verify the authenticity of this information as much as possible.
Any estimated economic or market or financial value does not necessarily represent the value of the underlying shares, if the asset is so held, as the value of the shares could be affected by other considerations. Further, the estimated market value if any does not include consideration of any extraordinary market value of the property, unless the effects of such special conditions, and the extent of any special value that may arise therefrom, have been described and measured in this report.
Should title to the real estate presently be held (or changed to a holding) by a partnership, in a joint venture, through a co-tenancy arrangement or by any other form of divisional ownership, the value of any fractional interest associated therewith may be more or less than the percentage of ownership appearing in the contractual agreement pertaining to the structure of such divisional ownership.
In the event of syndication, the aggregate value of the limited partnership interests may be greater than the value of the freehold or fee simple interest or leasehold interest in the real property, by reason of the possible contributory value of non-realty interests or benefits such as provision for tax shelter, potential for capital appreciation, special investment privileges, particular occupancy and income guarantees, special financing or extraordinary agreements for management services.
Should the author of this report be required to give testimony or appear in court or at any administrative proceeding relating to this report, prior arrangements shall be made therefore, including provisions for additional compensation to permit adequate time for preparation and for any appearances that may be required. However, neither this nor any other of these contingent and limiting conditions is an attempt to limit the use that might be made of this report should it properly become evidence in a judicial proceeding. In such a case, it is acknowledged that it is the judicial body which will decide the use of this report which best serves the administration of justice.
Because market conditions, including economic, social and political factors, change rapidly and, on occasion, without notice or warning, the estimate of market value expressed herein, as of the effective date of this report, cannot necessarily be relied upon as any other date without the subsequent advice of the author of this report. All macro economic data has been obtained from reliable sources however major changes in the economy are possible which could move entire markets and a reported value, if any, would move up or down with that market. The report typically assumes stable background economic conditions.
If any economic, market or financial value or measure has been expressed herein it is in Canadian dollars.
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1 9 . 0 AP P E N D I X 1 2 – PROFESSIONAL RESUME
SITE ECONOMICS LTD.
Richard Wozny, Principal
Experience
Richard has conducted over 300 development and financial studies of shopping centres and commercial districts. He has worked on the development of thousands of acres of residential and industrial projects, and over 400 store location and feasibility studies for retailers. Richard combines a creative and worldly project vision with pragmatic and detailed analysis.
Past Employment
Richard’s past work experience includes: Vice President and Manager of Advisory Services, Cushman & Wakefield LePage Inc., from 2000 to 2009; Principal, Site Economics Ltd., from 1990 to 2000; Manager of Retail Development for Western Canada, Marathon Realty Company Ltd., from 1987 to 1990; and Senior Consultant for Shopping Centre Developments, Thomas Consultants Inc., from 1984 to 1987.
Education
Richard completed a Masters Degree in Regional Science at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, in 1984, a Masters Degree in Religion at Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, in 1982, and a Bachelors Degree in Philosophy at the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, in 1978.
Strategic Real Estate Services
. Market Analysis . Proforma / Discounted Cash Flows . Financial Analysis and Site Valuation . Property Acquisition and Disposition Strategies . Highest and Best Use Studies . Strategic Review of Redevelopment Options . Development Feasibility Studies . Shopping Centre / Downtown Revitalization . Development Strategies & Optimization . Market Impact Studies for Major Developments . Supply and Demand Assessments . Market Input for Land Use Planning . Absorption and Price Assessments for . Site Selection and Location Assessment for Major Developments Retailers and Landowners
Site Economics Ltd. Suite 1500 – 701 West Georgia Street Vancouver, BC V7Y 1C6 Canada tel: 604.224.1369 / fax: 604.801.5911 email: [email protected] / website: www.siteeconomics.com
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