Edel Market Next Fundamental market In-House View

 Indian markets remained flat for the week.

 India exports 33.5 lakh tonnes sugar so far in 2019-20 marketing year: Sugar mills have exported 33.49 lakh tonnes of sweetener so far in the current marketing year ending September, with help from government's financial assistance, a trade association said on Thursday. Mills have contracted to export 42 lakh tonnes of sugar so far as against 60 the lakh tonnes quota assigned by Food Ministry, the All India Sugar Trade Association (AISTA) said in a statement. With five months still left for 2019-20 marketing year to end, the association feels the mills have the potential to fulfil their exports commitments.

 India April Services PMI falls to 5.4 from 49.3 in March, steepest contraction on record: India's service sector recorded its largest month-to-month contractions in business activity and new orders since data collection began over 14 years ago in April, according to the latest PMI data. The IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index was at 5.4 in April, a steep decline from 49.3 in March, the most severe contraction in services output since records began in December 2005. The global shutdowns as part of the measures undertaken to stem the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) were among the key factors that led to an unprecedented drop in both the output and demand. Approximately 97 percent of survey respondents pointed out to a reduction in output, highlighting the widespread impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 Government to gain Rs 1.6 lakh crore this fiscal from record excise duty hike on petrol, diesel: The cash-strapped government will gain close to Rs 1.6 lakh crore in additional revenues this fiscal from a record increase in excise duty on petrol and diesel, that will help make up for revenue it lost in a slowing economy and shutting down of businesses due to coronavirus lockdown. Late on Tuesday evening, the government hiked excise duty on petrol by Rs 10 per litre and that on diesel by Rs 13 a litre to mop up gains arising from international oil prices falling to a two-decade low. This is the second hike in excise duty in less than two months and will help government garner over Rs 1.7 lakh crore in additional revenues annually at 2019-20 level of consumption, industry officials said.

 Indian retail sector loss reaches Rs 5.50 lakh crore in lockdown: CAIT: Indian retail sector comprising around 7 crore traders has witnessed a loss of Rs 5.50 lakh crore since March 25 when the lockdown was imposed to contain the coronavirus infection, traders' body CAIT said on Tuesday. Besides at least 20 percent of Indian retailers are likely to wind up their businesses in the next few months, the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) said in a statement. Following these challenging times, CAIT has urged the government to award a substantial package to traders to ensure their survival.

 NBFCs seek RBI nod for one-time restructuring of all loans: Non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) have asked the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to permit one-time restructuring of all loans considering the economic scenario in the wake of COVID-19 lockdown, according to two people who attended a meeting between RBI top brass and NBFC industry representatives on Monday. Both declined to be named. The RBI has allowed banks and NBFCs for a one-time restructuring of loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The scheme was recently extended till December 3, 2020, after the government requested the RBI to do so. NBFCs have now asked RBI to extend a similar scheme for their borrowers for all types of loans taking into account the COVID-19 situation.

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Edel Market Next Domestic Bites – News during the week

 Tata Motors withdraws NCD issue of ₹1,000 crore: Tata Motors on Thursday said that in view of the higher cost expectations from market participants due to the tight money market conditions, it has decided to withdraw its planned issue of non- convertible debentures (NCDs) on a private placement basis to raise up to ₹1,000 crore. The company continues to have sufficient liquidity and will consider an NCD issue at an appropriate time and under normalised market conditions with necessary approvals, it said in a regulatory filing. Tata Motors had said in a regulatory filing on May 5 that a board-constituted committee had approved an issue of 10,000 rated, listed, unsecured, redeemable NCDs of face value ₹10,00,000 each, at par, across three tranches.

 Dr Reddy’s launches generic Desmopressin Acetate injection in US: Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd has launched Desmopressin Acetate Injection, a therapeutic equivalent generic version of DDAVP (desmopressin acetate) injection. The launched product has been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). DDAVP is a trademark owned or licensed by Ferring Pharmaceuticals, Inc “The launch of Desmopressin Injection demonstrates a strong, growing collaboration with SunGen Pharma. We look forward to future opportunities with this company,’’ Marc Kikuchi, CEO, North America Generics, Hyderabad- based Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, said in a release on Wednesday.

 Jio Platforms raises ₹11,367 crore from Vista Equity Partners: In its third mega-deal within a span of three weeks, Jio Platforms, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Reliance Industries (RIL), has raised Rs 11,367 crore in lieu of a 2.32 per cent stake from private equity firm Vista Equity Partners. With this, Jio Platforms has now raised a total of Rs 60,596.37 crore from leading technology investors in less than three weeks by paring a total of 13.46 per cent stake. The deal values Jio Platforms at an equity value of Rs 4.91-lakh crore and an enterprise value of Rs 5.16 lakh crore, RIL said in a statement. Vista, which has more than 57 billion in capital commitments and 20 years of investments in enterprise software and technology companies, is the world’s largest exclusively tech-focused private equity fund.

 Thyssenkrupp bags ₹300-crore order from Numaligarh Refinery: Thyssenkrupp’s plant engineering business has bagged a ₹300-crore order from Numaligarh Refinery for providing engineering, procurement and construction management services to various units of the refinery at Numaligarh in northeastern India. NRL is expanding its refining capacity from three to ni ne million tonnes per year. The project is expected to be completed by 2024. The refinery expansion project is part of the government’s initiative towards “Hydrocarbon Vision 2030” for the northeast region of India. The efforts are aimed at exploiting the region’s hydrocarbon sector to facilitate economic development, enhance access to clean fuels, increase the availability of petroleum products and create employment opportunities.

 Adani Green plans ₹10,000-cr capex this year to build wind, solar plants: Adani Green Energy Ltd, one of India’s leading renewable energy companies, expects to spend ₹ 8,000 crore and ₹10,000 crore in the current financial year, to build between 1,100 MW and 1,500 MW of wind and solar power plants, the company’s CEO, Jayant Parimal, said in a conference call on Monday. Roughly ₹7,000 crore of this will be financed by debt raised from domestic lenders, he said, hinting that when the projects are completed and have an operating track record, the debt could possibly be refinanced through a green bond issue. Equity is not a problem, because Adani Green is rich with $510 million it received from TOTAL Solar Singapore Pte for its 50 per cent stake in a joint venture, into which Adani Green has transferred 2,148 MW of solar assets. Adani Green is building 3,445 MW of wind, solar and hybrid plants (1,280 MW, 475 MW, and 1,690 MW, respectively), which will add to its existing portfolio of 2,545 MW — including the 2,148 MW under the JV with TOTAL.

 Silver Lake deal to help RIL become zero net debt by March 31, 2021: Reliance Industries Ltd’s (RIL) agreement with US private equity giant Silver Lake, reinforces the company’s commitment to achieve a zero net debt position by March 31, 2021. “Investment by Silver Lake is priced at a premium to recently announced investment by Facebook Inc ($5.8 billion) and establishes another pricing benchmark for Jio Platforms. This is credit positive as it enhances RIL’s already strong financial flexibility,” Vikas Halan, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance at Moody’s Investors Service said. “Including the recently announced rights issue ($7 billion) and investments by Silver Lake and Facebook Inc, RIL has announced initiatives that could reduce net debt by about $13.6 billion from reported net debt of $21.4 billion as on March 31, 2020,” he ad ded.

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Edel Market Next Domestic Bites – News during the week

 JSW Steel output tumbles 60% in April on Covid-induced lockdown: JSW Steel reported that its crude steel production was down 60 per cent last month to 5.63 lakh tonnes (lt) against 1.39 million tonnes logged in the same period last year, on the back of unprecedented Covid-induced lockdown. Flat steel production dipped 64 per cent to 3.44 lt against 9.53 lt registered in the same period last year while that of long products plunged 74 per cent to 89,000 tonnes (3.36 lt). The output in April adds up to an average capacity utilisation of 38 per cent for the month. The swift and bold actions undertaken by the government led to containing the spread of Covid infection. Shifting the gear, presumably with similar vigour, it now needs to revive the economy, said the company. In April, JSW Steel faced formidable challenges including disrupted supply chains, unparalleled drop in demand, uncertainty in seamless transportation of inbound and outbound goods through containment zones across the country and inadequate credit flow to the industry.

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Edel Market Next International – News during the week

 IMF says now is the time for public investment projects: Countries around the world should use the novel coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity to invest in public infrastructure and other projects that take advantage of low interest rates, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Wednesday. Countries should also strengthen their unemployment benefits and social safety nets in order to reinvigorate economic growth once the virus abates, the global lender said in its semi-annual Fiscal Monitor. "The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 has strengthened the case for fiscal policy action and heightened its urgency," the IMF said, referring to the respiratory disease caused by the virus that has been confirmed in more than 3.6 million people around the world. "Low-for-long interest rates present an opportunity for quality public investment across the world to boost growth."

 U.S. Trade Plummeted in March With Record Drop in Exports: U.S. exports of goods and services plunged in March by a record and imports declined by the most in 11 years as the coronavirus pandemic stymied trade and travel. The overall gap in goods and services trade widened to $44.4 billion from a revised $39.8 billion in February, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg had called for a widening to $44.2 billion. Exports dropped from the prior month by a record 9.6% to $187.7 billion, while imports fell 6.2% to $232.2 billion. Foreign trade was already diminishing heading into the pandemic, and now, faced with supply chain disruptions, a previously incomprehensible surge in unemployment and a drop off in demand, the world’s largest economy has pulled back more dramatically. A look at the details offers a more nuanced picture of how Covid-19 is decimating trade.

 Brazil ’s Historic Easing Faces Drawbacks Ahead: Political consensus helped Brazilian central bank chief slash interest rates to a record low last year. It’s a different story in 2020. As the bank looks to continue with the easing cycle amid prospects of a deep recession in Latin America’s largest economy, the always volatile world of Brazilian politics have now become a red light for Campos Neto, limiting the scope for aggressive reductions and driving traders to predict the central bank will have to reverse course as early as December. While most analysts expects policy makers to cut the Selic rate by half a point on Wednesday to 3.25%, the road ahead has turned increasingly murkier after a change in the political outlook. Just two weeks ago, most traders expected the central bank to cut by 75 basis points at this meeting and start raising rates only in March, taking the Selic to 4.75% by the end of 2021. Now they bet policy makers will be forced to hike as early as December, and that borrowing costs will reach at least 5.50% by the end of next year.

 German Factory Orders Slump With Virus Shutdown Freezing Economy: German factories saw demand collapse in March, when measures to contain the coronavirus brought the economy to a sudden halt. Orders fell 15.6% from the previous month, the most since data collection started in 1991 and more than economists predicted. While all sectors were affected, investment goods plunged heavily. The Economy Ministry warned of big declines in production due to the virus.

 US private payrolls plunge by a record 20.2 million in April: US private employers laid off a record 20.236 million workers in April as mandatory business closures in response to the novel coronavirus outbreak savaged the economy, setting up the overall labor market for historic job losses last month. The plunge in private payrolls shown in the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday suggested that national lockdowns to slow the spread of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the virus, could leave lasting scars on the economy, even as large parts of the country reopen non-essential businesses. Data for March was revised to show private payrolls decreasing by 149,000 jobs instead of the previously reported 27,000, which was the first decline since September 2017. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls tumbling by 20.050 million jobs in April.

 Indonesia Starts Year with Weakest Economic Growth Since 2001: Indonesia’s economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, amid expectations the coronavirus pandemic will take an even heavier toll on Southeast Asia’s biggest economy in months ahead. Gross domestic product rose 2.97% in the first quarter from a year ago, the statistics office said Tuesday. That was worse than the median estimate of 4% in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the weakest showing since 2001, according to statistics office head Suhariyanto, who goes by one name. GDP contracted 2.41% in the first three months of the year compared to the previous quarter, worse than the 1.27% contraction expected by economists.

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Edel Market Next International – News during the week

 Australian Central Bank Holds Fire, Braces for Economic Hit: Australia’s central bank kept the interest rate and yield objective unchanged Tuesday, while broadening securities eligible for its daily liquidity operations to assist the functioning of capital markets and keep rates down across the economy. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe maintained both the cash rate and three-year bond yield target at 0.25%, as expected by economists and money markets. Since l aunching unconventional policy in March, the bank has purchased A$50.7 billion ($32.7 billion) of securities that has brought the short- end of the government yield curve down to target. The Australian dollar edged slightly lower immediately following the central bank’s statement, before recovering ground to trade at 64.53 U.S. cents at 4:52 p.m. in .

 Three of Arab World’s Top Economies Slide: Business conditions in the Arab world’s three largest economies deteriorated further last month amid shutdowns from the coronavirus and a plunge in commodity prices. Non-oil private sector activity collapsed at an unprecedented pace in Egypt and suffered another record setback in the United Arab Emirates, according to Purchasing Managers’ Index surveys compiled by IHS Markit. Business conditions in Saudi Arabia also remained below the threshold of 50 that separates growth from contraction. Egyptian “businesses lucky enough to remain open scaled back activity on a massive scale, as many highlighted sharp falls in domestic sales and foreign demand,” said David Owen, economist at IHS Markit. “Firms forced to close unsurprisingly recorded an even steeper decline in output.”

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Edel Market Next

FII/DII

FII Flows (In INR Cr) DII Flows (In INR Cr)

25,000

19,056 20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000 3,818.41

322.47 0 -324 -58.21 -494 -1,374 -1,662

-5,000 04-May 05-May 06-May 07-May

FIIs were net buyers in Indian shares at INR 16865cr during the week. DII were net buyers at INR 2421cr in the past week.

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Edel Market Next

Events to watch out for:

The markets will take their cue from the following economic updates.

Country Event Forecast Previous USA Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 1.70% 2.10% USA CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.80% 1.50% USA Real Earnings (MoM) (Apr) NA 0.20% USA Federal Budget Balance (Apr) NA -119.0B USA OPEC Monthly Report NA NA USA Core PPI (YoY) (Apr) 1.10% 1.40% USA Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr) -2.30% -1.60% USA Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr) -2.50% -2.30% USA Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) -8.00% -4.20% USA Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) NA -5.80% USA Industrial Production (YoY) (Apr) NA -5.49% USA Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Apr) NA -6.30% USA Business Inventories (MoM) (Mar) -0.50% -0.40%

Country Event Forecast Previous INDIA CPI (YoY) (Apr) 5.93% 5.91% INDIA Cumulative Industrial Production (Mar) NA 0.90% INDIA Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) NA 4.50% INDIA Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Mar) NA 3.20% INDIA WPI Food (YoY) (Apr) NA 4.91% INDIA WPI Fuel (YoY) (Apr) NA -1.76% INDIA WPI Inflation (YoY) (Apr) 2.00% 0.90% INDIA WPI Manufacturing Inflation (YoY) (Apr) NA 0.34%

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