Von der Manufaktur zu Giga-Watt-Anlagen – Die Solarenergie auf dem Weg zur Großindustrie
Dr. Hubert A. Aulich Vorstand PV Crystalox Solar PLC
FVS-Jahrestagung 2007 Leibniz Universität Hannover
Overview Presentation
Introduction
Silicon and Electricity
Market drivers for solar electricity
Need for mass production
Conclusions Firmenprofil PV Crystalox Solar Gruppe
Fertigung von Si-Ingots und Si-Blöcken Oxfordshire, UK
Produktionskapazität ca. 290 MWp
Fertigung von Si-Scheiben in Erfurt und Japan
Niederlassung Crystalox Japan, Tokyo
ca. 210 Mitarbeiter weltweit
Juni 2007 erfolgreicher Börsengang am London Stock Exchange
Wertschöpfungskette PV - Industrie
Strategie PV Crystalox Solar:
Konzentration auf Si-Technologie
kein Wettbewerb zum Kunden Solarzellenhersteller
Solarsilizium-Produktion Anfang 2009 Fertigung PV Crystalox Solar, Milton Park Fertigung PV Silicon AG, Erfurt Silizium-Produktion Bitterfeld First „high-purity“ silicon rod from Siemens grown by the so-called A-process in 1953
For the first time in the history of industrial electricity generation a semiconductor - Silicon - is the material of choice for power conversion
Nothing is „burned“, nothing is wasted, Si-technology for solar electricity with lowest impact on environment and abundant resources
Silicon for power generation
Key drivers 1600 1467 1400 1320
1200 1052 1000
800 MWp 594 600 439 400 334 278 202 200 126 153 78 89
0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Source: EPIA - Greenpeace 2007
Global annual PV shipment Significant development during the last 15 years
Small scale manufacturing developed basic technology in 90‘s
Reduce wafer thickness
Increase cell efficiency (SiNx, BSF)
Transfer new concepts into mass production
Production lines for wafers, cells, modules world-wide commercially available Projection of the contribution to the world electricity TWh production from PV as seen in 2001 was too conservative 100000
10000
World Electricity from PV in TWh 1000 World Electricity Generation in TWh
100 2020: PV 1% world electricity 33% realised 2040: PV 26% world electricity 10
27% 34% 15% Growth 1 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: Solar Generation and IEA-PVPS
EPIA Roadmap 10.000,0 15% 1.000,0 15% 100,0 34%
GWp/a 10,0 27% 1,0 Solar-Grade Silicon 0,1 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
to/a 4.500 29.500 300.000 1.200.00 5.250.000
to/MWp 17,5 10,0 5,2 3,5 2,5
Installed Module Capacity and Silicon Consumption
Systems/ Silicon Ingots Wafers Solar Cells Modules Applications
Significant improvement in technology resulting in cost reductions at every step of the value chain need to be continued to achieve grid parity
Value Chain from Silicon to Systems MOTIVATION FOR MASS PRODUCTION
Total cost/pc Depreciation Mass production to Fixed cost Administration Labour distribute Fixed cost R+D over large volume
Silicon
Variable Crucibles cost Slurry Technology improvement Wire Silver paste Purchase power Glas EVA Tedlar JB Volume
Motivation for for Motivation mass production Fixed pc Cost/ system 100% 32 % module 80% 21 % cell 60% wafer 19 % ingot 40% 9 % silicon 11 % 20% 8 % 0%
Cost structure of PV-Systems 2007 HCl/H2 Temperature Pressure
MG-Silicon
Impurities
From metallurgical (MG)-Silicon to solar silicon Major cost drivers:
- SiHCl3 (Mg-Si) - electricity - depreciation
10 g/Wp 5,5 g/Wp 100 %
45 %
2006 2015
Silicon feedstock Major cost drivers: - crucibles - gases - power
100 %
62 %
Source: PV Crystalox Solar 2006 2015
Ingot Major cost drivers: - slurry - wire - depreciation
Source: Meyer & Burger
100 %
64 %
2006 2015
Wafer Major cost drivers: - depreciation - pastes - diffusion
- SiNx
100 %
59 %
Source: ErSol 2006 2015
Solar cell Major cost drivers: - direct materials - depreciation - labour
100 % 69 %
Source: ErSol, ASS 2006 2015
Solar module Source: SMA
Systems Sufficient cost reduction potential exists in Si-wafer based technology to reduce total system cost per Wp below 3€/Wp within the next 7 years
100 %
61 %
4,9 €/Wp 4,9 €/Wp < 3 €/Wp < 3 €/Wp
2006 2015
Source: PV Crystalox Solar
Cost per Wp development for PV systems 60 5,2 % p.a. 50
40
ct/kW h 30 20
10
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
7% 4% 10% PV electricity generating cost
grid parity Source: PV Crystalox Solar
PV generating costs versus electricity price development in Germany Long Term Development PV Solar Electricity World-Wide CONCLUSIONS
Favourable political support mechanisms have led to dynamic market growth of solar electricity. Need to be maintained.
Industry entering area of mass production
Continued R+D accompanied by fast transfer into production to reach grid parity