IN THE EYE OF THE STORM IN THE EYE OF THE STORM I R N THE EFLECTIONS FROM THE THE FROM EFLECTIONS RREFLECTIONSEFLECTIONS FROM FROM THE THESECOND SECOND E Climate change is already modifying weather patterns and seasonal climate and raising sea levels across YE OF THE PPACIFICACIFICC LIMATECLIMATE CHANGE CHANGE CONFERENCE CONFERENCE the globe. Left unchecked, climate change presents significant risks for food security, water availability and habitability. It is the number one problem facing humanity. How climate change affects the oceans, and life within the oceans, is central to the future of the planet. Containing the vast majority of the heat in the climate system, S TORM and home to a vast array of biodiversity, the global oceans hold the key to the effects of climate change for S centuries to come. Nowhere is climate change, and ocean change, a more urgent issue than across the Pacific, ECOND home to many low-lying island nations and sensitive to large swings in climate from year to year. P On 21-23 February 2018, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington and SPREP hosted the ACIFIC Second Pacific Climate Change Conference, entitled "Pacific Ocean – Pacific Climate", at the Museum of New Zealand Te Papa Tongarewa in Wellington. The conference brought together a broad range of voices on climate C LIMATE change, from the arts, scientific, business, health and faith communities; Pasifika communities; as well as activists, NGOs and members of the public. They provided a rich exchange of diverse ideas on how to tackle C this most pressing problem. The contributions in this volume come from some of the keynote and principal HANGE speakers at the conference. They represent a multitude of viewpoints on how to deal with the problem confronting us all. The chapters address topics ranging from the science of climate change to its impacts on the environment, C examine law and policy matters, and discuss the issues raised by climate change through economic, media and ONFERENCE faith perspectives. Alberto Costi is a Professor of Law at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington Faculty of Law, President of the New Zealand Association for Comparative Law and Secretary-General of the International Law Association New Zealand Branch. He is a member of the IUCN World Commission on Environmental Law. James Renwick is a Professor of Physical Geography and Head of the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington. He has served as an author on Al several reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and is a co-chair of the World Climate E D berto Costi and James Renwick Research Programme Project on Climate and the Cryosphere. BY ITED EDITED BY ALBERTO COSTI AND JAMES RENWICK FOREWORD BY ISBN 978-0-473-55000-4 (Softcover) HON LUAMANUVAO DAME WINNIE LABAN AND LEOTA KOSI LATU ISBN 978-0-473-55001-1 (pdf) DITED BY LBERTO OSTI AND AMES ENWICK ISBN 978-0-473-55002-8 (ibook) E A FEATURINGC THE OPENING ADDRESSJ BY R HONOURABLE PRIME MINISTER OF SAMOA TUILAEPA DR SAILELE MALIELEGAOI FOREWORD BY HON LUAMANUVAO DAME WINNIE LABAN AND LEOTA KOSI LATU FEATURING THE OPENING ADDRESS BY HONOURABLE PRIME MINISTER OF SAMOA TUILAEPA DR SAILELE MALIELEGAOI In the Eye of the Storm Reflections from the Second Pacific Climate Change Conference Edited by Alberto Costi and James Renwick Foreword by Hon Luamanuvao Dame Winnie Laban and Leota Kosi Latu Featuring the Opening Address by Honourable Prime Minister of Samoa Tuilaepa Dr Sailele Malielegaoi SPREP, Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington and NZACL Wellington 2020 Published in collaboration by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington, and the New Zealand Association for Comparative Law (NZACL). This book is available in print and in electronic format. The editors wish to express their gratitude and appreciation to Denise Blackett for the typesetting and formatting of this book, to Ash Stanley-Ryan and Taran Molloy for research assistance, to Monique Egli Costi for editorial assistance, and to City Print Communications Limited for their valuable services. ISBN 978-0-473-55000-4 (Softcover) ISBN 978-0-473-55001-1 (pdf) ISBN 978-0-473-55002-8 (ibook) The Editors and Contributors have asserted their moral rights to be identified as authors of this book in accordance with the Copyright Act 1994. © The Editors and Contributors Severally 2020 This work is entitled to the full protection given by the Copyright Act 1994 to the holders of the copyright, and reproduction of any substantial passage from the book, except for the educational purposes specified in the Act, is a breach of the copyright of the editors and contributors. This copyright extends to all forms of photocopying and any storing of material in any kind of information retrieval system. ii Contents Acknowledgements and Notices .................................................................................... ii Notes on the Contributors .............................................................................................. v Foreword...................................................................................................................... xi Welcoming Remarks .................................................................................................. xiii Opening Address ......................................................................................................... xv 1 The Threat of Climate Change to the Pacific Region: Problems, Solutions and Prospects Alberto Costi and James Renwick ............................................................................................ 1 2 Physical Science James Renwick ....................................................................................................................... 7 3 The Adaptation Gap Judy Lawrence, Celia Wade-Brown, Shenuka de Sylva and Paul Blaschke.............................. 21 4 The Current State of the Pacific Patila Amosa ........................................................................................................................ 45 5 Materials for a Low Carbon Future Nicola Gaston, Justin Hodgkiss and Shane Telfer .................................................................. 59 6 Politics and Securitization: The Political Economy of the Climate Crisis in the Pacific Christopher Wright ............................................................................................................... 83 7 The 2020 Climate Change Regime – Fit for Purpose for the Pacific? Adrian Macey ....................................................................................................................... 97 8 Can Judges Make a Difference? The Scope for Judicial Decisions on Climate Change in New Zealand Domestic Law Sir Geoffrey Palmer ............................................................................................................ 107 9 Addressing the Challenges to Statehood Arising from Climate Change: Future Bases for Action to Protect Low-Lying Atoll Nations Alberto Costi ...................................................................................................................... 129 10 Climate Change and the Island States of the South Pacific: An Insurance Perspective on Hazards, Risks and Responses Tim Grafton ........................................................................................................................ 155 11 "The Biggest Story Ever" Jamie Morton ..................................................................................................................... 167 12 Faith and Spirituality – The Earth is Shaping Us to Live with Less John Howell ....................................................................................................................... 191 iii iv NOTES ON THE CONTRIBUTORS Book Editors Alberto Costi Alberto Costi is a Professor of Law at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington. He has published extensively in international law. Recent publications include the general editorship of the first ever textbook on international law from a New Zealand angle (Public International Law: A New Zealand Perspective (LexisNexis, 2020)). Alberto is a Co-Director of the New Zealand Centre of International Economic Law, the President of the New Zealand Association for Comparative Law and the Secretary-General of the International Law Association New Zealand Branch, and sits on various editorial committees and scientific associations in New Zealand and overseas, including the Asia Pacific Journal of International Humanitarian Law and the Comparative Law Journal of the Pacific. Alberto currently works on a monograph (funded by the New Zealand Law Foundation) examining whether the rise in sea level and related climate change events may impose obligations on neighbouring states to assist Pacific Island nations in retaining rights and duties under international law, or in ensuring the protection of their populations. James Renwick Professor James Renwick is Head of the School of Geography, Environment and Earth Sciences at Te Herenga Waka—Victoria University of Wellington. He is a climate researcher with a background in atmospheric science and statistics. His main areas of interest are atmospheric teleconnections between the tropics and the higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the mid- latitude westerly circulation, and the effects of climate change on New Zealand and Antarctica. James